BASON's PLAYs

[Subcloser]

We are mostly on the same page. I am not buying Oklahoma though. Think we see a typical Ohio State game here. Close first half and then they take it in the second half. Will likely use them in teasers.

I do not understand how Oregon State can be favored over any decent team. If Minny would have blown out Buffalo this line would be much different. I know it is at Oregon State, but not sure I can lay off Minny here.

Need to do a little more research, but I think I am going to be all over Stanford, especially if it gets to +7.

I know UNC lost at home to Cal, but I am leaning towards taking the 8 here. Louisville did not impress me at all last week.

And of course I will likely be on Navy. Need to do a little more research on Tulane, but I think Navy will get better each week.

I watched most of the Tulane game. The SWAC is the worst conference ever in football and baseball. I wouldn't put too much stalk in a game against a SWAC school. There is even talk of some of the SWAC schools moving down to Div2, problem is they wouldn't fair that much better moving down a division...I think based on Tulane week 1 score there will be solid value on Navy this coming Saturday...gl

 

[BASON]

Thanks Sub.

I am putting in Navy now at -13.5 as one of my primary plays. They beat them by 17 at home two years ago and by 7 at Tulane last year. Navy's defense looked good against FAU and I think they will keep Tulane in check. I expect Navy to throw just a little more this year as Abey has a decent arm. They are just trying to find some receivers that can get open. Something to watch for as the season progresses.

I see Stanford at +7 most places now. Will watch a little more, but +7.5 is a number I like in this game.

Minnesota keeps climbing and now +2.5. Maybe I am missing something here, so please enlighten me if you have any good information on this game. Oregon State's defense has looked really bad in the first two games.

 

[Subcloser]

Thanks Sub.

I am putting in Navy now at -13.5 as one of my primary plays. They beat them by 17 at home two years ago and by 7 at Tulane last year. Navy's defense looked good against FAU and I think they will keep Tulane in check. I expect Navy to throw just a little more this year as Abey has a decent arm. They are just trying to find some receivers that can get open. Something to watch for as the season progresses.

I see Stanford at +7 most places now. Will watch a little more, but +7.5 is a number I like in this game.

Minnesota keeps climbing and now +2.5. Maybe I am missing something here, so please enlighten me if you have any good information on this game. Oregon State's defense has looked really bad in the first two games.

Historically B10 schools who travel to the west coast do awful...One thing I always tell myself early in the year is a team is never as bad as you think they are and a team is never as good as they have shown...If you really break down the gophers they aren't very complicated of a team...I actually believe from an athlete standpoint they match up pretty even...Minny is the better team but Corvallis can be a very tough place to visit for anyone...I think you have to remember who the coaching staff is at Oregon St, most people don't think about it, its the same staff that took Utah St to the best seasons they have seen in well ever...this coaching staff signed a big boy deal for the big bucks at Wisconsin, for reasons undisclosed they left abruptly and all went to Oregon St of all places...I do think they will make Oregon St competitive (eventually) but they will never be dominate with the conference they are in and the hardship they face when it comes to recruiting Beaver...I have a pretty close a quittance that is very close to the program that I should talk to sometime this week and will have a better outlook...right now this game says coin toss to me if not lean Beavers

 

[lowell]

We are mostly on the same page. I am not buying Oklahoma though. Think we see a typical Ohio State game here. Close first half and then they take it in the second half. Will likely use them in teasers.

I do not understand how Oregon State can be favored over any decent team. If Minny would have blown out Buffalo this line would be much different. I know it is at Oregon State, but not sure I can lay off Minny here.

Need to do a little more research, but I think I am going to be all over Stanford, especially if it gets to +7.

I know UNC lost at home to Cal, but I am leaning towards taking the 8 here. Louisville did not impress me at all last week.

And of course I will likely be on Navy. Need to do a little more research on Tulane, but I think Navy will get better each week.

UNC is now getting 9.5. Pass defense was horrible vs Cal. Look for the Cards to pass for 350 plus yards. I do believe Fedora will stick with Surratt Saturday and not keep changing QBs.
Lose this game in a blowout and I believe the Rams Club will move to get rid of Fedora by the end of the year.
Check out Duke plus 3.5. There is no home field advantage but I believe Duke may win a close game.

 

[BASON]

Thanks guys.

Lowell, you know much about UVA this year? Am tempted by the +3 at home against an Indiana team that has to have some Ohio State fatigue. I think the Duke game will be close also and they are on my teaser list for the weekend as I like +10.5. Completely agree on Fedora which is why I think the +10 is tempting as Louisville will play to the level of their competition. Their defensive effort was scary though and you have to say that Louisville's offense is better.

Sub, I think I am taking Minny off my list for now. Good info. I know the coaching staff history at Oregon State which is why I expected a lot more from them in the opening game. They better have a good showing at home or the fans are going to turn on them fast.

I just locked Stanford in +7.5 -120. I expect this game to be very close. I will likely use them in a ML par also as I love to do one ML dog parlay every weekend. Too bad I didn't have Howard/Liberty/Maryland/Cal one last week!!

So far:

Navy -13.5
Stanford +7.5 -120

 

[BASON]

Making a small play on Georgia Tech +3 FH.

TN has a lot of new players on offense so I expect them to struggle a bit early. Their D should also struggle some against the option. You can practice all you want but it is different live. Think the FH offers the best value.

 

[lowell]

UVA picked to go 1-7 in the conference .
I hate to play on bad teams to win.
Look for NC State to bounce back with big win this week.

 

[BASON]

Not in love with this week's card. Having trouble finding a third key game I like, so for now I am not going to force it.

In addition to Navy and Stanford, I will add the following:

Ohio St. -1/Georgia +11. I know many do not like to play teasers (and I do not post them much even though I play a few every week), especially in college, but I do play them when I simply feel we are getting a good number. I am not sure Ohio State should be laying 7.5 but I do feel good about them winning this game. I also think ND is getting a little too much love in this game and I like getting DD with a good Georgia defense.

Will add if I get some more time to cap. Spent tons of time capping soccer the last week, which definitely paid off, but I am a little worn out.

 

[BASON]

Not sure why Tulane is getting so much love, but I am adding some to Navy at -10.

I am in Annapolis this weekend and it is a beautiful fall day. Going to be a good crowd and I am expecting Navy to play well.

 

[BASON]

Just a bad week 2. I didn't like the card that much and it showed.

Lowell, excellent call on Duke by the way.

I am about to put in Alabama -27.5 -120. You always risk moves against you playing games early (like Navy last week), but they also rarely matter (like Navy last week). Colorado State scored 3 points against Colorado. How in the hell are they going to score against Alabama. Even if they score some points late, I think Bama will literally run away with this.

Others I am taking an early look at

TN +5.5 - not sure how FL can be laying any points to good teams with that offense
Wyoming +14 - looked bad at Iowa, but tough at home.
Utah State +14 - lots of love for Wake
Lville+3 - hate betting on them, but not sure Clemson has enough fire power to win
East Car +21 - know nothing about them yet, but Tech usually struggles against them

Thank God for college ball as the NFL keeps getting worse and worse.

 

[lowell]

Just a bad week 2. I didn't like the card that much and it showed.

Lowell, excellent call on Duke by the way.

I am about to put in Alabama -27.5 -120. You always risk moves against you playing games early (like Navy last week), but they also rarely matter (like Navy last week). Colorado State scored 3 points against Colorado. How in the hell are they going to score against Alabama. Even if they score some points late, I think Bama will literally run away with this.

Others I am taking an early look at

TN +5.5 - not sure how FL can be laying any points to good teams with that offense
Wyoming +14 - looked bad at Iowa, but tough at home.
Utah State +14 - lots of love for Wake
Lville+3 - hate betting on them, but not sure Clemson has enough fire power to win
East Car +21 - know nothing about them yet, but Tech usually struggles against them

Thank God for college ball as the NFL keeps getting worse and worse.

I would drop ECU as a play. They are horrible this year.
Baylor might be worth a play versus Duke who will be looking ahead to playing UNC next week.
Louisville RB out versus Clemson. Was at the Louisville/ UNC game. I was not at all impressed w their defense. Jackson had a field day but UNC has their worst defense in years.
Have not seen the USC/Kentucky line but I like the Gamecocks to keep winnnig. They have really good team chemistry and Saturday night in Columbia will be a tough place for UK.

 

[BASON]

Thanks Lowell.

I do think Duke line is a bit of an overreaction. It is on my list.

South Carolina finally getting some respect this week as they are -7. I will likely use them in a larger ML parlay.

 

[BASON]

Here is what I have decided to play for now.

Alabama -27.5 -120

Tennessee +5 -120

Utah State +14 -120

ML Parlay - S. Car, Tx Tech, TN and Cal - should play about 11-1. Will likely tie S. Car and Tx Tech to Wyoming +14 also.

Too many unknowns with Baylor even though I like that situation. Lowell is right, ECU looks really bad, but I think VA Tech will play to the level of their competition but not worth a bet. Louisville game is intriguing, but I am not sold on the Louisville defense or the Clemson offense so that game is a toss up to me.

Another card that I am not in love with, so no big bets for me. Will just sit back and watch. I love Saturdays, soccer all morning and college football all day and night!

Good luck all!

 

[#cruncher]

I would drop ECU as a play. They are horrible this year.
Baylor might be worth a play versus Duke who will be looking ahead to playing UNC next week.
Louisville RB out versus Clemson. Was at the Louisville/ UNC game. I was not at all impressed w their defense. Jackson had a field day but UNC has their worst defense in years.
Have not seen the USC/Kentucky line but I like the Gamecocks to keep winnnig. They have really good team chemistry and Saturday night in Columbia will be a tough place for UK.

Lowell-Bason-Anyone

Would you say Clemson's lack of offensive production against Auburn was because of Auburn's defense, or because of a drop off from Clemson's offense? And, how was Watson's replacement, or anything else you want to add. Considering a play on Clemson this week but didn't see the Clemson/Auburn game.

 

[BASON]

My biggest concern Cruncher, and mostly why I laid off, is that Bryant has been their whole offense. He is also a their leading rusher. He has not really been forced to throw the ball to win and I think he will have to against Louisville.

 

[#cruncher]

My biggest concern Cruncher, and mostly why I laid off, is that Bryant has been their whole offense. He is also a their leading rusher. He has not really been forced to throw the ball to win and I think he will have to against Louisville.

Thanks Bason, that's enough to make me stay away, I was leaning that way anyway.

 

[lowell]

I was at the Louisville/UNC game last Saturday. Maybe UL was looking ahead to Clemson but their pass defense was average at best. I believe Jackson will have to run for 100 yards to beat Clemson today. He may just do it but I like the Tiger defense to contain his running and win a close game. I think this is a good game to watch but there are better games to bet.
Good luck today.

 

[#cruncher]

I was at the Louisville/UNC game last Saturday. Maybe UL was looking ahead to Clemson but their pass defense was average at best. I believe Jackson will have to run for 100 yards to beat Clemson today. He may just do it but I like the Tiger defense to contain his running and win a close game. I think this is a good game to watch but there are better games to bet.
Good luck today.

Thanks lowell, I feel like Clemson will cover but will just be watching. It seems like at a certain point last year, maybe the Duke/Louisville game or maybe even Wake Forest/Louisville game, people started to figure out how the contain Jackson better or at least how to slow their offense down. Houston and LSU pretty much dominated the Cards at the end of the year and even Kentucky beat them. I guess I'm just afraid Clemson might not have enough offense, although they may not need a whole lot if their defense takes care of business, which their capable of I think.

 

[BASON]

Brutal day. Saban can kiss my ass (and I am sure a few alumni will have some choice words for him). Wholesale subs in the 3rd quarter, so no offense and tons of mistakes on defense and they give up 23 points. And of course another disaster in a FL game. TN coach will be gone after this year.

That is enough for me for a while, I am going to stick to what I am good at (soccer) and stop wasting money.

 

[BASON]

Old friend of mine loves Miami -13 on Saturday. I will ride along since he tends to do very well on his bigger plays, so I thought it was a good idea to pass along.

Looking hard at the MD over right now as I expected that number to be a lot higher.