BASON's PLAYs
- Thread starter BASON
- Start date
Man, I do not know what is going on but Rutgers is getting absolutely hammered. My line just went from 6.5 to 3!! That is a lot of money on Rutgers.
I can not make a decision on the Army/Navy game. I think Army is the better team, but the layoff has me concerned. Navy has played a much tougher schedule and is definitely more game ready, but they have issues at QB. If I were forced to make a play I would take the 7.5.
I can not make a decision on the Army/Navy game. I think Army is the better team, but the layoff has me concerned. Navy has played a much tougher schedule and is definitely more game ready, but they have issues at QB. If I were forced to make a play I would take the 7.5.
Little Tua is out for the game. Thanks for announcing it right before kick off. Man, I hate that about college football. With sports gambling legal most places now, they have to change the NCAA rules.
Thanks for the input. I read your write ups for the last two years on the game and just wanted to see if you had any insight. Appreciate it and good luck today! :0008
No problem. Navy was just too difficult to cap given how their coaching staff has handled everything this year, so I just laid off their games.
Watching this Maryland game had to be the most painful hours I have spent watching TV this year and now overtime! Just a terrible football game. If Tua plays in this game Maryland would have covered easily. They had WRs open all over the field. Maryland still in it with a QB that was 5th on the depth chart before the season just shows how bad Rutgers is. Locksley has a lot to prove at MD because his team makes an awful lot of mistakes and I find it ridiculous that they did not go for a first down with 3 minutes to go that would likely have won them the game.
Hate days like this. Should have made a lot of money today but just didn't work out that way. MD play was doomed from the start with no Tua. Still not disastrous but should have been better.
I will be waiting patiently for next week's lines to come up as I will likely jump on a couple right away as long as they are not too high.
I will be waiting patiently for next week's lines to come up as I will likely jump on a couple right away as long as they are not too high.
I was watching this score online. I had no clue they had a guy out. I just saw the line had closed at 3 and thought, wtf? Now reading your post, it makes sense. This killed me today. I bet a chunk on Maryland last night at -6, probably half my bankroll. You had no way of knowing their best player was out so no worries there. It's just the luck of a gambler that the guy was pulled right before game time. Only reason I bet so much is that you are always solid with your Maryland plays. We'll get 'em next week!
Sorry. There really was no way of knowing. They kept it real quiet on purpose. It is a problem with college football that needs to be fixed. If Tua played, I have every confidence they easily win that game. It is just a bad break.
Two in early this morning:
Northwestern +21.5 -113
Clemson -9.5 -113
I put the full amount I plan to bet on Northwestern as I expect that to be the best line we get. Only about half on Clemson for now as the line could come down, but I really do not care as I have been waiting for this one. More on these as the week progresses.
Florida screwed up the early Bama bet for now as I was hoping to buy it to 13.5, but their loss caused the line to jump about 2 points. I will be on Bama but will see how the line moves. I do not think Florida has a chance with that defense.
Two in early this morning:
Northwestern +21.5 -113
Clemson -9.5 -113
I put the full amount I plan to bet on Northwestern as I expect that to be the best line we get. Only about half on Clemson for now as the line could come down, but I really do not care as I have been waiting for this one. More on these as the week progresses.
Florida screwed up the early Bama bet for now as I was hoping to buy it to 13.5, but their loss caused the line to jump about 2 points. I will be on Bama but will see how the line moves. I do not think Florida has a chance with that defense.
So what happened to Little Tua? Why was he scratched from the game and will he be back against Mich St this week?
Maryland QB Tagovailoa out for 'medical reasons'
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/sports...ailoa out for 'medical reasons' Back to video
Positive Covid results. That had to be a tough blow on the team. Damn. Stinkin' bets should be cancelled when this shit happens. It'll never happen, but missing 5 guys just before kickoff is brutal.
He tested positive on Friday and they did a great job at hiding it. I follow local fan boards, etc. and no one mentioned this until about 30 minutes before game time and even that report did not mention the positive test right away.
I get why Maryland withheld the information. The issue is that that they should not be allowed to do so. I had an email conversation about this with the Central Florida AD after they did the same thing last year and I fired off some angry emails. They have no requirements at all to disclose any injury information so they purposely withhold it so they do not lose a competitive advantage. Again, I get this, but the NCAA has to step in here. They have to just admit that gambling is now legally a part of the game and force members to reveal injury information. Hell, they should be doing it anyway from a competition perspective.
This should be an easy decision, but the NCAA is one of the more corrupt and hypocritical organizations on the planet. They love to pretend they do everything they can to protect the student athlete as well as the amateur nature of the game while simply ignoring reality and doing everything they can to pad their pockets. The other problem is that you need a voice to lead the charge on this. I think most coaches actually love the fact that they can hide injuries (plus they do not want to be visibly seen as a proponent of gambling) so it is not going to come from them. Probably will have to come from the gaming companies once legal sports betting becomes even more prevalent which mean getting a critical mass of states (need to get TX and FL for sure and CA would be great, but doubtful given their liberal legislature). Even then the NCAA will likely push back.
It is just part of the NCAA game right now and it costs me at least one bet a year.
I get why Maryland withheld the information. The issue is that that they should not be allowed to do so. I had an email conversation about this with the Central Florida AD after they did the same thing last year and I fired off some angry emails. They have no requirements at all to disclose any injury information so they purposely withhold it so they do not lose a competitive advantage. Again, I get this, but the NCAA has to step in here. They have to just admit that gambling is now legally a part of the game and force members to reveal injury information. Hell, they should be doing it anyway from a competition perspective.
This should be an easy decision, but the NCAA is one of the more corrupt and hypocritical organizations on the planet. They love to pretend they do everything they can to protect the student athlete as well as the amateur nature of the game while simply ignoring reality and doing everything they can to pad their pockets. The other problem is that you need a voice to lead the charge on this. I think most coaches actually love the fact that they can hide injuries (plus they do not want to be visibly seen as a proponent of gambling) so it is not going to come from them. Probably will have to come from the gaming companies once legal sports betting becomes even more prevalent which mean getting a critical mass of states (need to get TX and FL for sure and CA would be great, but doubtful given their liberal legislature). Even then the NCAA will likely push back.
It is just part of the NCAA game right now and it costs me at least one bet a year.
never easy to get this info and this year the coaches have taken full advantage of the covid situation to hide their other injuries even more - the Louisville situation earlier in the year against Va Tech was pretty ruthless, but there was a 2.5ish point bump in the line about 30 minutes before game time so somebody got the info in time to profit from it
looking forward to next year where hopefully this all won't be as much of an issue - will likely still be hard to track down injury info but there simply shouldn't be as much of it
gl the rest of the way
LA Burns
You know when this will become an issue and get changed? When the casinos start losing a shitload of money because someone knows the info on injuries and makes huge bets because of it right before game time. It's like insider trading. People go to jail because of insider trading. It won't happen until the books lose big money because students go betting large amounts. It's literally like fixing a game. And I truly believe there will be corrupt guys who will figure out that if they know this info and no one else does, that they can make bank on it. Then the casinos will pressure the NCAA to get it changed.
I agree and that only happens with mobile gaming. That is the only way you can truly take advantage of it in real time. This has been going on for years behind the scenes in college, but to truly take advantage, you need people in place, money to pay them and people in the casinos ready to bet. In college though, it is never a sure thing. Look at the Maryland game. They could have easily pushed the late line and could have covered many lines in overtime if their coaches did not grossly mismanage the end of the game or the players did not take stupid penalties. Just not as much of a sure thing in college versus the pros, but huge deal if kids in the locker room and close to the team can bet the game while at the game with insider information. Wide spread mobile sports gambling may change it.
I remember reading that Arizona State as I remember, was caught shaving because college kids, who the books had never seen, walked into different casinos around Vegas at the same time and made thousands in bets on a game. I could be a little off, it's been years since I read that. But it was close to something like that.
It was Arizona State basketball in 1994 and it was the books that caught on and eventually got them caught by the FBI. Worked great for 3 games but they got too greedy and got nailed in the 4th game. Ironically, they also lost the bet on the last game! But they got caught because they had to go into casinos and bet large amounts of cash. With limited casinos, and the fact that they all know each other, it was only a matter of time until they got caught.
While I like Bama to win rather handily, I have decided that the better play for that game will be the Alabama TT Over. I think they will score at will like most games this year, but I feel even more confident with this one since I do think Florida has a chance to at least keep it somewhat close for a while which will keep Bama scoring. I see 50+ again and will hit this hard as soon as it is posted. I have done very well with TT this year.
I still think the Clemson line may drop a little. I think ND money is waiting to see if it goes any higher, and from what I can tell, there is a lot of ND love out there. I definitely think Clemson is the better overall team and will be very well prepared with the time off. Have to remember that they were also missing 3 defensive starters (2 linebackers and a DL which definitely helped ND run the ball) in the last game in addition to Lawrence and the ND offense was not exactly stellar in that game as they only had 2 TDs in regulation. Clemson also turned it over 3 times. Many saying this is a different ND team than the past, but I will believe it when I see it it.
Most of my friends think I am nuts liking Northwestern and I think most agree with them. I am just not a believer in this Ohio State team after what I saw in the second half against Indiana. I love the way Northwestern plays. If their offense were better I would be playing the money line in this one. Just need Northwestern D to keep it close because they likely will not be able to come back if they get too far down. I will be wearing purple on Saturday!!
I did play this 3-team 10 point teaser:
Iowa State +15.5
Clemson -.5
Bama Ov 63
Never a believer in Oklahoma in big games and I think Iowa State is the better coached team. I see no reason they can not beat them again.
I still think the Clemson line may drop a little. I think ND money is waiting to see if it goes any higher, and from what I can tell, there is a lot of ND love out there. I definitely think Clemson is the better overall team and will be very well prepared with the time off. Have to remember that they were also missing 3 defensive starters (2 linebackers and a DL which definitely helped ND run the ball) in the last game in addition to Lawrence and the ND offense was not exactly stellar in that game as they only had 2 TDs in regulation. Clemson also turned it over 3 times. Many saying this is a different ND team than the past, but I will believe it when I see it it.
Most of my friends think I am nuts liking Northwestern and I think most agree with them. I am just not a believer in this Ohio State team after what I saw in the second half against Indiana. I love the way Northwestern plays. If their offense were better I would be playing the money line in this one. Just need Northwestern D to keep it close because they likely will not be able to come back if they get too far down. I will be wearing purple on Saturday!!
I did play this 3-team 10 point teaser:
Iowa State +15.5
Clemson -.5
Bama Ov 63
Never a believer in Oklahoma in big games and I think Iowa State is the better coached team. I see no reason they can not beat them again.
