I have given this game way too much thought, and after all of it, I keep coming back to my initial thought: Alabama should dominate this game.
I have never believed Notre Dame to be an elite team this year. I like their offensive and defensive lines, which is why they were so successful this year, but I have issues with Book at QB. The truth is that if Lawrence played in the first game against Clemson, I certainly believe they would have lost (as evidenced by the ACC Championship game) and would not even be here. Other than that win, they really did not have any other signature wins (no offense to UNC fans!). They had some nice ACC wins but there was not a lot of defense being played in the rest of the ACC this year.
On the flip side, we have one of the best and most well rounded offenses I have seen in many years and one that rivals LSU from last year, which was awesome. How are the Irish going to defend them? If they blitz and try to bring pressure Lawrence, they do not have the defensive backs to cover the Bama receivers one on one. Also, people tend to forget that Lawrence can run the ball. If they only rush 3 or 4, Bama will run the ball or pick them apart with short passes. I just do not think they can stop this Bama offense nor do I believe they can score enough to keep this close. Yes, Bama has some weaknesses on defense but ND does not have the offense to exploit them like Florida did.
The final kicker for me is the fact that Clemson completely dominated Notre Dame in the ACC Championship (which was my largest bet of the year and a game I was waiting for right after the first one), so I see no reason this game will be any different. Notre Dame only had 263 yards of offense while winning the time of
possession and was down 35-3 in the fourth quarter without a turnover. That is domination, so why is this game gong to be different?
Alabama -16.5 -151
Yes, I know this is nuts for some of you (but those that follow me in the soccer forum know I routinely lay this kind of juice and more), but this is where I played it at this morning. I waited for the line to hit 19 and I am buying the points because the back door always scares the hell out of me laying this many points no matter how I feel about the game. I understand some do not like doing this and I would still play it at -19, but this is what makes me comfortable. I also have had a great year so laying the extra juice does not bother me.
I have Bama at Even money to win it all so I will not wager as much as I usually would since I fully expect them to at least win the game. I also am saving a little dry powder for a further line drop.
I want this to be a great game, but I just do not see it. I firmly believe Alabama and Clemson are the two best teams in the country and we will see them play in the final.
