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last two
Arkansas offense vs. East Carolina defense
? QB Ryan Mallett has excellent arm strength, but it's the ability of the 6-foot-7 Mallett to scan the field from within the pocket and his willingness to spread the ball around that makes Arkansas' spread scheme to difficult to defend. East Carolina isn't deep enough at corner to match up with Razorbacks WRs Greg Childs, Jairus Wright, Joe Adams and Cobi Hamilton. In addition, TE D.J. Williams' blend of size (6-2, 251 pounds) and athletic ability make it tough for safeties to stick with him in man coverage. In an effort to overcome these mismatches, East Carolina will primarily drop seven men into zone coverage and rushing four.
? The Pirates were able to slow Houston's explosive spread offense in the Conference USA championship game with the seven-in-coverage scheme mentioned above, and while East Carolina had just just two sacks in that game its front four didn't let Cougars QB Case Keenum get comfortable in the pocket, either. DE C.J. Wilson makes up for his lack of ideal closing speed with good initial quickness, active hands and a non-stop motor. The Pirates also generally limited the Cougars' production after the catch with sound open field tackling and they will need a similar effort to slow the Razorbacks.
? With a hamstring injury sidelining RB Michael Smith, backups Broderick Green, Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo Jr. are sharing carries. All three benefit from the spread scheme stretching the defensive front and keeping the safeties deep, but they are still going to have a difficult time finding room to work. East Carolina's front four averages 296 pounds and is difficult to move off the ball. LB's Nick Johnson, Chris Mattocks and Jeremy Chambliss take advantage of the protection their defensive line provides for them by locating the ball, taking sound pursuit angles and tackling well.
Key individual matchup
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett vs.
East Carolina FS Van Eskridge
Mallett is tall enough to see the entire field from within the pocket, puts excellent velocity on his passes and flashes above-average touch. On the other hand, the former Michigan transfer started just three games as a true freshman in 2007 and sat out the 2008 season because of NCAA transfer rules. He lacks ideal game experience and it shows at times. While he generally goes through his progressions when his primary receiver isn't there he can also put too much faith in his arm and throw into tight coverage, especially when he gets pressured. Eskridge, meanwhile, is more than capable of turning a mistake over the middle into an interception. He is a ball hawk who reads the quarterback's eyes, diagnoses routes and shows above-average range.
East Carolina offense vs. Arkansas defense
? RB Dominique Lindsay is quick and elusive but is not a powerful inside runner who can push the pile on short-yardage/goal line plays, so he needs a seam to be effective in these situations. Creating those seams should be difficult against the Razorbacks. DTs Malcolm Sheppard and Zach Stadther are tough interior run stoppers capable of holding their ground against East Carolina's interior offensive linemen and with Sheppard and Stadther clogging the middle in front of them MLB Wendell Davis and OLB Jerry Franklin won't have to consistently fight off blocks at the second level. Davis and Franklin are sound open-field tacklers who diagnose plays and close quickly when they go unblocked.
? QB Patrick Pinkney tends to pat the ball before releasing it, which tips off the pass rush to get their hands up and allows the coverage to get a jump on the ball. An Arkansas pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the FBS in yards per allowed per game (104th, 251.8 ypg) needs to take advantage of this flaw in Pinkney's technique. The defensive line hasn't had much success tipping passes but Pinkney is just 6-foot so there's reason to be optimistic about their ability to so in this game. And while Arkansas doesn't have a premier ball hawk, eight different players have intercepted a pass this year.
? The Razorbacks surrendered an 87-yard punt return for a touchdown in their regular-season finale against LSU when P Dylan Breeding out-kicked the coverage and several players got caught out of their lanes. Arkansas can't afford to make the same mistakes against East Carolina because PR Travis Simmons has the explosive burst to make the Razorbacks pay for it. Though Arkansas has done a better job of covering kickoffs this year it will have its hands full trying to slow Pirate KOR Dwayne Harris, who has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns this year. Harris reads his blocks well, bounces off arm tackles and turns on the jets when he gets a seam.
Scouts' Edge
The Pirates lost all three of their FBS non-conference games this year and should be overmatched by Arkansas in terms of team speed and depth. On the other hand, East Carolina is a difficult matchup for the Razorbacks in all three phases of the game. The Pirates are capable of keeping the Arkansas pass rush at bay and have the talent at receiver to move the ball through the air against a suspect Razorbacks pass defense. Defensively, they can slow the run and get after Mallett without stacking the line of scrimmage or rushing more than four. As far as special teams are concerned, East Carolina is capable of winning the battle of field position with their return and cover units. Finally, beating an explosive passing attack and talented quarterback in the Conference USA Championship game has provided the Pirate coaching staff with a blueprint for a win over Arkansas.
Prediction: Pirates 31, Razorbacks 27
Michigan State offense vs. Texas Tech defense
? QB Kirk Cousins faces a vulnerable Texas Tech pass defense but does so without two of his three top receivers. Michigan State suspended B.J. Cunningham (nine starts) and Mark Dell (three starts) for their involvement in a campus fight, and without them in the lineup, TE Charlie Gantt and WR Keshawn Martin will have to step up and complement leading receiver Blair White. Gantt is quick enough to make plays down the seam and he can hold onto the ball after taking a big hit, and while Martin has dropped passes he should have caught this season he is capable of stretching the field and producing after the catch.
? Michigan State's pass protection has been sound for the most part but it's going to have a difficult time keeping Texas Tech at bay. Pittsburgh is the only FBS team averaging more sacks per game than the Red Raiders (3.3), who have some of the premiere edge rushers in the country in DEs Brandon Sharpe, Darren Howard and Ra'Jon Henley. That trio will give Spartans OTs D.J. Young and Rocco Cironi all they can handle, and Cousins will also have a difficult time avoiding pressure by stepping up in the pocket because Red Raiders NT Colby Whitlock and DT Richard Jones have the quickness to shoot into the backfield and give Cousins nowhere to go. If Cousins struggles because of the pressure and/or lack of help at receiver he might be replaced by redshirt sophomore Keith Nichol, who is more mobile than Cousins and he has a strong arm but lacks experience.
? True freshman RBs Edwin Baker and Larry Caper share carries and keep each other fresh, and though they aren't powerful between-the-tackles runners they can be effective inside because they are quick and read their blocks fairly well. Michigan State will try to create seams inside by putting Martin motion and either give him the ball on a jet sweep or faking it to him before handing to the back up the middle. The fake will force the outside linebackers to stay honest and make them a step slow collapsing inside, so MLB Brian Duncan must stay in sound position and tackle well when the Spartans run inside. The good news for Duncan is that he plays behind Whitlock, who doesn't have great size (6-foot-2, 287 pounds) but stays low and he uses his strong upper body to control offensive linemen.
Key individual matchup
Michigan State ROT D.J. Young vs.
Texas Tech LDE Brandon Sharpe
Young moves very well for his size (6-foot-5, 310 pounds) and he is big enough to engulf the 254-pound Sharpe when Michigan State runs right at him. Young also gets into his pass sets quickly and locks his arms out well, but he's still going to have problems preventing Sharpe from beating him around because of balance issues. Young sometimes lunges or overextends in pass protection while Sharpe explodes into offensive tackles, uses his hands to keep them off his frame and then does an excellent job of bending inside. That means Young will have problems countering when Sharpe starts outside and works backs inside.
Texas Tech offense vs. Michigan State defense
? Taylor Potts will get the start at quarterback and should have plenty of favorable matchups to exploit. The Spartans rank near the bottom of the FBS in passing yards allowed per game (103rd, 251.6 ypg) and lack the depth and talent at corner to match up with Red Raiders WRs Alex Torres, Detron Lewis, Tramain Swindall and Lyle Leong. Making matters worse, Michigan State suspended CB Chris L. Rucker (11 starts this season) for his involvement in the same campus fight mentioned above. Defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi can't mask Michigan State's inability to match up in man coverage by consistently dropping into soft zone coverage, either. Texas Tech's route structures and the spacing of the spread sets will stretch the zone and test the discipline of a back seven that has often been caught out of position this season. Finally, Potts generally finds the open man when given time.
? Don't be surprised to see a blitz-heavy game plan from Narduzzi despite the mismatches on the outside. The Red Raiders' pass protection has been suspect and the Michigan State pass rush has been one of the most productive in the country. Narduzzi will bring pressure from a number of different areas of the field and he plays a lot of games with his front seven, crossing linebackers, blitzing defensive backs and stunting defensive linemen. Keep an eye on Michigan State MLB Greg Jones in particular. Jones explodes off the ball and closes quickly,and while he weighs just 228 pounds Jones is stronger than his size suggests and he flashes the ability to shed interior offensive linemen quickly. The Spartans will also use a lot of pre-snap movement to prevent Potts from getting good initial reads on the defense.
? Texas Tech has thrown the ball more than twice as much as it has run it but versatile RB Baron Batch still plays a pivotal role. Batch is a dangerous receiver who can release out of the backfield or motion out to the slot, and the Red Raiders take advantage of his ability to create in space by motioning him out of the backfield and throwing him swing passes in-stride. Batch is also quick enough to get outside on traditional handoffs and he shows a second gear when he gets a seam, which is a concern for the Spartans. WLB Brandon Denson's pursuit angles are too shallow at times and he isn't athletic or explosive enough to recover when Batch beats him to the corner.
Scouts' Edge
Both teams are dealing with plenty of off-the-field controversy. On Wednesday, Texas Tech fired head coach Mike Leach, who was under suspension following allegations he mistreated an injured player. Reports indicate that inside receivers coach Lincoln Riley is expected to call the plays for the Red Raiders, and he is well-versed in Tech's scheme after spending several seasons under Leach's tutelage, but there are concerns about the ability of acting head coach Ruffin McNeill to juggle those duties along with his responsibilities as defensive coordinator. On the other side, player suspensions will handcuff Michigan State's passing game and passing defense. In the end, look for the Red Raiders to come out on top because, distractions aside, it's the players that are most important to the outcome of a game.
Prediction: Red Raiders 24, Spartans 20