I don't know if anybody reads all this stuiff, but here goes.....
I usually don't care to mess with the other races on the cards for the Derby or Preakness, but today we're talking N.Y. racing and I got picks for a couple of the undercards... and the BIG UN.
First, the BIG UN:
The Belmont, just sharing my ideas about playing ihis race -
I was a regular at the track for the Belmont for over 20 years and ever since the day I tried AND DID beat a HUGE favorite for this race... I've played it the same way ever since -> try to beat the favorite. Yes, I lost a lot more times than I won, BUT, I nailed my share of big tunas too and one HUMUNGOUS whale. I think this race is definitely the handicapper's friend. Just about every one of the horse's 3 previous races were races that they were absolutely ready to give their best and definitely TRIED THEIR BEST. The races didn't necessarily have to be triple crown races, just top graded events. It's highly probable that how they did in their last 3 races is what you'll get today cause none of those races were warmup races for the big event - each was the big event and today's race may be the biggest event for each one. Not thinking ONLY where they finished... it's how they ran those races and HOW THEY USUALLY RUN (flashy early speed, makes BIG moves during a race, finishes like a rocket from way back, plodders/grinders (like "pressers"), etc.
I've walked that track and I believe it hasn't been completely resurfaced or rebuilt since I did. And when I did, I took a look, from right on the track, at the long backstretch and the WIDE, sweeping turns. That track is huge. Man it looked like it musta been a torture test over the deep, deep, surface. And it was a hot and sunny, fast-track day too. Felt like I was walking on quicksand. IMO, which may be kinda wierd, I believe the kind of horse to look for in this race and on this track is the PLODDER. Actually, maybe "Presser" is a better term. But,a fast PLODDER. You know, like a robot horse - no neck hairs flying in the wind, no gunning the engine during the race, no booster rockets. I look for the horse that only uses up his energy for navigating that track, not for putting on a show. Better yet if he's a big, strong robot/mule. They run like fast ROBOTS; nuthin fazes them - not even the deep track; they finish the race a bit faster (and only a bit) like they started the race. TO ME, Acclaimed and even Secretariat were those kinda horses. Yeah, I watched each carefully in person and on tv. ESPECIALLY Acclaimed who I told folks that he looks like a robot mule out there. A FAST, steady, consistent robot mule.
Asfaras the "beat the favorite" goes, this year's competitors fit's the plan. Yeah, the Animal and Nehro and even Shakleford do look to be a little better than the others. BTW, it's only the lack of workouts that scare me regarding Shakelford. My figures say he's NOT a pretender in this race like many cappers think. But look at the speed figures, the pace, the previous finishes for just about every one of the entries. There's just too little difference between most of the horses in this race to accept favoritism.
The plicks:
Two double digit morning liners one way or another. Win or lose, I think both have a better chance than their odds by a wider margin than the others...
No.4, Santiva, 15-1 and prob. better odds than that. Watched this one, checked his pp lines and his running style. He fits my "plodder system". Bridgmohan rides him well and his Derby race was much better than it looks on paper. Distance should not be a problem for this one considering his breeding and, except for the Bluegrass, he only accelerated during his races from start to finish, no backing up at any point during his races except for the Bluegrass. Oh, - -> he had good excuses for the Bluegrass exception too. Besides, his name reminds of the "WHALE" I caught in this race back in 2002.
What time is it?.... remember him? The BOXER that is; I wanna forget him.
No. 10, Mucho MACHO Man looks good. Similar to Santiva and better early speed, but he'll need to use some of that early speed from post 10. Morning line odds of 10-1 is wishful thinking, but a race like this attracts plenty of bettors and that should help getting a decent price cause plenty of those bettors will likely shy away from a runner with double digit odds next to his name on the program or newspaper. I got a feeling he may be a better exacta or trifecta facta... IF he looks good on the track - maybe a weiner?
Maybe a good play would be to use each with one of the BIG 3 - Animal, Nehro, Shackle? i may do that plus side, staight action on each of the two plicks. Not sure how I'm gonna play it yet.
Exacta/Trifecta boosters..
Maybe one of these two will make a good booster with one of the plicks or with one of the favorites...
nos. 2 or 3. NO straight plays on either though.
Of the newbies in this race, no. 3,RULER ON ICE (20-1) may be the one to stick his nose in the picture.
Other races -
Race 1
3-6-10 (iffy race and not necessarily in the order I have listed)
Race 9
1-2-5 (not so iffy)
G.L.
I usually don't care to mess with the other races on the cards for the Derby or Preakness, but today we're talking N.Y. racing and I got picks for a couple of the undercards... and the BIG UN.
First, the BIG UN:
The Belmont, just sharing my ideas about playing ihis race -
I was a regular at the track for the Belmont for over 20 years and ever since the day I tried AND DID beat a HUGE favorite for this race... I've played it the same way ever since -> try to beat the favorite. Yes, I lost a lot more times than I won, BUT, I nailed my share of big tunas too and one HUMUNGOUS whale. I think this race is definitely the handicapper's friend. Just about every one of the horse's 3 previous races were races that they were absolutely ready to give their best and definitely TRIED THEIR BEST. The races didn't necessarily have to be triple crown races, just top graded events. It's highly probable that how they did in their last 3 races is what you'll get today cause none of those races were warmup races for the big event - each was the big event and today's race may be the biggest event for each one. Not thinking ONLY where they finished... it's how they ran those races and HOW THEY USUALLY RUN (flashy early speed, makes BIG moves during a race, finishes like a rocket from way back, plodders/grinders (like "pressers"), etc.
I've walked that track and I believe it hasn't been completely resurfaced or rebuilt since I did. And when I did, I took a look, from right on the track, at the long backstretch and the WIDE, sweeping turns. That track is huge. Man it looked like it musta been a torture test over the deep, deep, surface. And it was a hot and sunny, fast-track day too. Felt like I was walking on quicksand. IMO, which may be kinda wierd, I believe the kind of horse to look for in this race and on this track is the PLODDER. Actually, maybe "Presser" is a better term. But,a fast PLODDER. You know, like a robot horse - no neck hairs flying in the wind, no gunning the engine during the race, no booster rockets. I look for the horse that only uses up his energy for navigating that track, not for putting on a show. Better yet if he's a big, strong robot/mule. They run like fast ROBOTS; nuthin fazes them - not even the deep track; they finish the race a bit faster (and only a bit) like they started the race. TO ME, Acclaimed and even Secretariat were those kinda horses. Yeah, I watched each carefully in person and on tv. ESPECIALLY Acclaimed who I told folks that he looks like a robot mule out there. A FAST, steady, consistent robot mule.
Asfaras the "beat the favorite" goes, this year's competitors fit's the plan. Yeah, the Animal and Nehro and even Shakleford do look to be a little better than the others. BTW, it's only the lack of workouts that scare me regarding Shakelford. My figures say he's NOT a pretender in this race like many cappers think. But look at the speed figures, the pace, the previous finishes for just about every one of the entries. There's just too little difference between most of the horses in this race to accept favoritism.
The plicks:
Two double digit morning liners one way or another. Win or lose, I think both have a better chance than their odds by a wider margin than the others...
No.4, Santiva, 15-1 and prob. better odds than that. Watched this one, checked his pp lines and his running style. He fits my "plodder system". Bridgmohan rides him well and his Derby race was much better than it looks on paper. Distance should not be a problem for this one considering his breeding and, except for the Bluegrass, he only accelerated during his races from start to finish, no backing up at any point during his races except for the Bluegrass. Oh, - -> he had good excuses for the Bluegrass exception too. Besides, his name reminds of the "WHALE" I caught in this race back in 2002.
What time is it?.... remember him? The BOXER that is; I wanna forget him.
No. 10, Mucho MACHO Man looks good. Similar to Santiva and better early speed, but he'll need to use some of that early speed from post 10. Morning line odds of 10-1 is wishful thinking, but a race like this attracts plenty of bettors and that should help getting a decent price cause plenty of those bettors will likely shy away from a runner with double digit odds next to his name on the program or newspaper. I got a feeling he may be a better exacta or trifecta facta... IF he looks good on the track - maybe a weiner?
Maybe a good play would be to use each with one of the BIG 3 - Animal, Nehro, Shackle? i may do that plus side, staight action on each of the two plicks. Not sure how I'm gonna play it yet.
Exacta/Trifecta boosters..
Maybe one of these two will make a good booster with one of the plicks or with one of the favorites...
nos. 2 or 3. NO straight plays on either though.
Of the newbies in this race, no. 3,RULER ON ICE (20-1) may be the one to stick his nose in the picture.
Other races -
Race 1
3-6-10 (iffy race and not necessarily in the order I have listed)
Race 9
1-2-5 (not so iffy)
G.L.
