Chadman,
1. Look at any consensus site. The 91% came from one of the more popular consensus sites.
Did a little checking, not too many monitoring sites out there, did not find the one you mentioned at the top of the charts. These were:
- One large monitoring site has the consensus at 64.77% favoring West Va. +7.5, which includes more than 4200 public and cappers. Pretty good sized number.
- Another a big site has Oklahoma covering (not sure of the number of posters) at a 66.67% majority.
- Another big one is currently down for NCAA Football.
Looks like things are pretty even, looking at these pretty big sites, and a 4200 sampling is favoring West Va. solidly.
2. The line has moved more than a point at some books. I'm currently seeing 8 and 8.5 out there. I posted +7.5, but I will wait for a higher number.
I know what you are saying, and I think there is sensible support for Oklahoma, especially at a TD or less. Not sure I'd count on it going too much higher, and I'd expect the support for OU to be even more than it apparently is. I doubt the number will go much higher, as there will be plenty of big spenders happy to shoot for the middle.
3. I think West Virginia's quick and athletic line will fare very well against OU's big and slow offensive line.
Maybe they will, entirely possible. I wouldn't bet on that myself, but more power to you. I'm not sure I'd label OU's line as being all that slow, but big and strong, no doubt.
4. I'm not worried about White's thumb. If I worried about injuries, suspensions, etc., then I never would've bet Florida State +8. The oddsmakers take all of these variables into consideration when setting a line.
I'd say the oddsmakers have taken everything into consideration (when don't they?) and installed OU as a solid favorite in the game. I think I'll lean more to their odds than your bowl game of the year oddsmaker misread. No offense, but a Qb thumb injury might be a little tough to know about, I doubt they are blabbing that it is too bad, right? I doubt it is too bad, but a Qb with a recent thumb issue can't be a positive, in my estimation. I also bet Florida State, and thought the line probably reflected a public image of concern, moreso than this one.
5. I'm glad you think my prediction is wrong. I hope everyone thinks my prediction is wrong. I don't mind being in the minority. In fact, it makes me feel better about my prediction.
I just don't see the big minority rule, from what I looked at (per your idea). I think many people think OU is at least a TD better than West Va. But I doubt a landslide of people would bet on OU at much more than -7.5.
Good luck to you.
