Here is a little column I wrote up for my free Picks page. I would greatly appreciate feedback on it via the questions at the bottom of the piece. If you don't want to post your answers publicly, just email me at nick_douglas@mac.com and I will keep anything you write me confidential. Thanks in advance for taking the time to help me with this.
THE BEST VALUE IN GAMBLING?
Most gamblers bet for action. Most will even admit this fact. They started out as a fan of a certain team or sport, and after the sweet nectar of gambling gets in their system, the games become boring unless a few greenbacks are at stake. They know that they don?t want to put a heck of a lot of work or effort into handicapping, so they resign themselves to the fact that they are basically paying a fee to add some electricity to their television viewing.
It is for this reason that two sports, football and basketball, have elevated themselves above all others on the American betting landscape. Pointspreads are easy to understand and easier to wager on, so American gamblers have fiercely gravitated towards those sports which lend themselves to point spread betting.
The only problem is, winning at the NFL or NBA is hard. Very hard. How many of you have read posts or heard friends complain to something of the tune of, ?I gave back all my college football (basketball) winnings in the NFL (NBA)?? How many have heard these same types complain how screwy NFL and NBA lines are and how they always get rooked by weak teams getting garbage covers on low spreads?
Because basketball and football are such popular wagering sports and because the NFL and NBA are so dad gum hard to crack for many bettors, lots of folks claim that college football and basketball are the real places to win big money.
The logic goes somthing like this: Since there are so many more games on a given college football or basketball Saturday, there are bound to be soft lines somewhere out there. With a maximum of only 14 or 16 games on the board in a NFL or NBA betting day, books are able to sharpen their lines enough to take away the bettor?s advantage. With two or three times as many games on the board in a college betting day, how can the book possibly put out good lines for all of those games?
That logic, of course, neglects the fact that it is far more difficult to keep track of all the college teams compared to the pro teams. Professional sports is under so much scrutiny that a handicapper can easily get daily updates on every single pro team from both local and national media sources. In college, it is a touch more difficult. Often fan websites or University run sites must be relied upon for up to date information. And there is also the fact that players only spend four years or less at a school, so the ability to predict performances often becomes much more remote.
So which weighs stronger? Does the sportsbook?s troubles in having to find sharp lines for a greater number of games make college sports easier to handicap? Or does the high number of teams to keep track of make college sports harder to handicap?
I would like feedback on this topic so that I can post a follow up column next week. Send an email to nick_douglas@mac.com (the address has a link at the bottom of this page) with your thoughts on the matter. Here are the questions I would like answered:
1) Do you accurately track your wagers in both college and pros?
---a) If you do, which do you perform better at?
---b) If you don?t, which do you *think* you are better at?
2) Are you a bigger fan of pro or college sports in general?
3) Do you bet on more college or pro sports in general?
4) Why do you think you are better at one than the other?
5) Do your methods of handicapping vary wildly from college to pros?
Thank you in advance to anyone willing to email me. I think this could make for some pretty interesting discussion.
THE BEST VALUE IN GAMBLING?
Most gamblers bet for action. Most will even admit this fact. They started out as a fan of a certain team or sport, and after the sweet nectar of gambling gets in their system, the games become boring unless a few greenbacks are at stake. They know that they don?t want to put a heck of a lot of work or effort into handicapping, so they resign themselves to the fact that they are basically paying a fee to add some electricity to their television viewing.
It is for this reason that two sports, football and basketball, have elevated themselves above all others on the American betting landscape. Pointspreads are easy to understand and easier to wager on, so American gamblers have fiercely gravitated towards those sports which lend themselves to point spread betting.
The only problem is, winning at the NFL or NBA is hard. Very hard. How many of you have read posts or heard friends complain to something of the tune of, ?I gave back all my college football (basketball) winnings in the NFL (NBA)?? How many have heard these same types complain how screwy NFL and NBA lines are and how they always get rooked by weak teams getting garbage covers on low spreads?
Because basketball and football are such popular wagering sports and because the NFL and NBA are so dad gum hard to crack for many bettors, lots of folks claim that college football and basketball are the real places to win big money.
The logic goes somthing like this: Since there are so many more games on a given college football or basketball Saturday, there are bound to be soft lines somewhere out there. With a maximum of only 14 or 16 games on the board in a NFL or NBA betting day, books are able to sharpen their lines enough to take away the bettor?s advantage. With two or three times as many games on the board in a college betting day, how can the book possibly put out good lines for all of those games?
That logic, of course, neglects the fact that it is far more difficult to keep track of all the college teams compared to the pro teams. Professional sports is under so much scrutiny that a handicapper can easily get daily updates on every single pro team from both local and national media sources. In college, it is a touch more difficult. Often fan websites or University run sites must be relied upon for up to date information. And there is also the fact that players only spend four years or less at a school, so the ability to predict performances often becomes much more remote.
So which weighs stronger? Does the sportsbook?s troubles in having to find sharp lines for a greater number of games make college sports easier to handicap? Or does the high number of teams to keep track of make college sports harder to handicap?
I would like feedback on this topic so that I can post a follow up column next week. Send an email to nick_douglas@mac.com (the address has a link at the bottom of this page) with your thoughts on the matter. Here are the questions I would like answered:
1) Do you accurately track your wagers in both college and pros?
---a) If you do, which do you perform better at?
---b) If you don?t, which do you *think* you are better at?
2) Are you a bigger fan of pro or college sports in general?
3) Do you bet on more college or pro sports in general?
4) Why do you think you are better at one than the other?
5) Do your methods of handicapping vary wildly from college to pros?
Thank you in advance to anyone willing to email me. I think this could make for some pretty interesting discussion.
