Bettors fading Saints early

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Judgment Day for Manning once again

Judgment Day for Manning once again

Judgment Day for Manning once again




By the time Super Bowl XLIV finally kicks off, essentially the entire free world will be fully aware that Peyton Manning was born and raised in the city of New Orleans, and that his father happens to be one of the most recognizable and beloved players to ever don a uniform for the team the Indianapolis Colts quarterback will be facing for the coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy.

While that angle will be mercilessly hammered into our collective heads in the days leading up to this year's Big Game, this Super Bowl really isn't about Manning standing in the way of his hometown Saints' quest for a long-awaited first-ever world championship.

More than anything, Super Bowl XLIV presents the opportunity for one of the NFL's all-time great quarterbacks to unequivocally cement his place alongside the immortals at the game's premier position.

In reality, Manning has nothing left to prove in a 12-year career that will one day most certainly earn him a bronze bust in Canton. He's already won a Super Bowl, having guided the Colts to a 29-17 victory over the Chicago Bears three years ago on the same Sun Life Stadium field in Miami that Indianapolis will oppose the Saints. He garnered an unprecedented fourth NFL MVP Award in 2009 after amassing a 10th season of over 4,000 passing yards, also more than any player in league history.

There's no debate over whether Manning has been among the best regular-season field generals the NFL has ever seen. Yet even after taking a somewhat-flawed Indianapolis team to a second Super Bowl in four years, the 33-year-old still hasn't been able to completely slay all the postseason demons that have haunted him throughout his remarkable tenure.

Those remaining critics are quick to point out Manning's 9-8 playoff record as a starting quarterback and a rather ordinary 27-to-18 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games. They'll just as quickly spout off about the multiple Super Bowl titles won by his Hall of Fame counterparts, a list that includes such hallowed names as Montana, Bradshaw, Aikman, Elway and Starr.

Tom Brady, the active player most often compared to Manning, has led the New England Patriots to three Super Bowl triumphs despite entering the league two years after his rival. Ben Roethlisberger has brought home two Lombardi Trophies in only six seasons as a professional. While winning one is surely no small feat, it's still the same amount produced by the likes of Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien and Brad Johnson -- quarterbacks not normally mentioned in the same breath as Manning. Whether fair or not, those are the cold, hard facts.

Even Manning's MVP performance against the Bears -- a solid 247 yards on 25- of-38 passing with one touchdown and an interception -- isn't considered up to legendary standards by that hard-to-please army of detractors.

That group is beginning to get smaller and smaller, however, and Manning likely made himself a few more converts with his sensational showing in Indianapolis' besting of the New York Jets in the AFC Championship Game on January 24. The 10-time Pro Bowl honoree took apart the league's top-ranked pass defense in the 30-17 decision, racking up 377 yards and three touchdowns in skillfully bringing the Colts back from an early 11-point deficit.

It was an outing much like he delivered all throughout his latest MVP campaign, in which Manning threw for 4,500 yards and completed a career-best 68.8 percent of his throws. The cerebral signal-caller's 33 touchdown passes during the regular season were just one shy of the league lead set by the man he'll battle on Super Bowl Sunday, New Orleans' Drew Brees.

"You think that he may level out, but he never does," Colts head coach Jim Caldwell recently told the team's official site. "He never gets complacent. Every year it seems like he takes it to another plateau."

That trademark focus will come in handy for Manning in a matchup that will obviously have an attachment of sentimentality to it. Not only did one of New Orleans' favorite sons grow up a Saints fan, he remains active in the community and took a heavy role in the relief effort when the city was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Archie Manning, Peyton's father, quarterbacked the Saints from 1971-82 and still holds the franchise record for career passing yards. He also served as the team's radio color commentator for over a decade following his playing days and continues to have a close relationship with the organization.

"I'm very excited for the city of New Orleans," said Peyton Manning about the Saints' march to the Super Bowl. "New Orleans is definitely a huge part of my life, and my dad's been a part of the New Orleans Saints organization for 39 years. We definitely have strong ties."

It's a strange twist of fate that one of New Orleans' hometown heroes will be trying to prevent the long-suffering Saints from capturing the NFL's ultimate prize. That's almost as ironic as Manning finding himself in an eerily similar scenario as he did in Miami three years ago -- playing in a game that will forever define his legacy as a quarterback.

 

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Super Bowl XLIV Preview - New Orleans (15-3) vs. Indianapolis (16-2)

Super Bowl XLIV Preview - New Orleans (15-3) vs. Indianapolis (16-2)

Super Bowl XLIV Preview - New Orleans (15-3) vs. Indianapolis (16-2)




- A place in history will be the prize awaiting either the Indianapolis Colts or New Orleans Saints on Sunday, as the two No. 1 seeds face off in Super Bowl XLIV from Sun Life Stadium in South Florida.

For the Colts, who have already recorded their most single-season wins in franchise history with 16, the quest will be a second Super Bowl title in a four-year span. Indianapolis descended on the Miami area the last time the game was played in that locale, defeating the Bears, 29-17, following the 2006 season to hand quarterback Peyton Manning the first title of his esteemed career.

Much has changed about the makeup of the Indianapolis roster since that time, with former staples like wide receiver Marvin Harrison (out of football), safety Bob Sanders (injured), and left tackle Tarik Glenn (retired) not a part of this run toward a title.

Also different is the team's sideline leader. Former assistant head coach Jim Caldwell took over the top reins after Tony Dungy stepped down following last season, and became the first rookie head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl stage since the Raiders' Bill Callahan in 2002. No rookie head man has won a Super Bowl since George Seifert guided the 1989 San Francisco 49ers to the crown. With a win, Caldwell would become the second Colts rookie head coach to win a title, joining Don McCafferty, who led the then-Baltimore-based organization to a win over the Cowboys, also in Miami, in Super Bowl V.

The Colts have reached this stage after handling the Ravens (20-3) and Jets (30-17) in their first two postseason contests.

The Saints, meanwhile, know all about firsts. This is the franchise's first Super Bowl in a mostly star-crossed 43-year history, one that was attained following an all-time-best 13-3 regular season, followed by postseason victories over the Cardinals (45-14) and Vikings (31-28 in overtime). This also marks the first time New Orleans has won multiple playoff games in a campaign.

New Orleans head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees are among those who will be making their initial Super Bowl forays, though Payton did serve as offensive coordinator on the 2000 New York Giants team that was a 34-7 loser to the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV.

Saints cornerback Randall Gay (Patriots, 2004, 2007) and safety Darren Sharper (Packers, 1997) are the only New Orleans players with relevant Super Bowl experience.

Also, though the city has hosted many championship events including Super Bowls and Final Fours, New Orleans has never won a major professional sports championship.

The Saints and Colts are the first No. 1 seeds to meet in a Super Bowl since the Cowboys defeated the Bills, 30-13, in Super Bowl XXVIII following the 1993 season.

Sunday will mark the 10th time the Super Bowl will be played in South Florida, an NFL record.

SERIES HISTORY

The all-time series between the Saints and Colts is knotted, 5-5, with Indianapolis evening the series by virtue of a 41-10 home victory in the 2007 regular opener. Indy has won its last two games against New Orleans by a composite score of 96-31, and Manning is 38-of-55 for 602 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions in those contests.

The Saints' most recent win over the Colts was a 34-20 affair at the Superdome in 2001, and their only other matchup against Manning was a 19-13 victory in 1998, in what was the quarterback's fourth career NFL start.

Brees is 1-2 head-to-head against Manning, including 1-1 while with the Chargers (loss in 2004, win in 2005) in addition to the 2007 defeat while with New Orleans.

Payton is 0-1 against the Colts, while Indianapolis' Caldwell will be meeting both Payton and the Colts for the first time as a head man.

The Colts are 9-10 at Sun Life Stadium all-time, including a 27-23 win over the Dolphins there in Week 2 of this season, and their 29-17 triumph over the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. The Saints are 1-1 in meaningful games played at the facility, scoring their first win ever in South Florida with a 46-34 win over Miami there in Week 7 of this season.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

Saints Quarterback: Brees (4388 passing yards, 34 TD, 11 INT) is already revered by fantasy football enthusiasts from coast to coast, and his four Pro Bowl citations over the past six years and 2008 NFL Offensive Player of the Year honor are proof positive that he is an elite-level quarterback. But the 31-year-old Purdue product is just 3-2 in career playoff games, and it will take a win in Super Bowl XLIV to put him in the Manning-Brady-Favre tier of passers, or at least in the discussion. Brees' 70.6 completion percentage, 109.6 passer rating, and 34 touchdown tosses all led the league in 2009. Backup Mark Brunell, whose 31,928 career yards surpass even Brees' total, will suit up for his first Super Bowl at the age of 39.

Saints Running Backs: Pierre Thomas (793 rushing yards, 39 receptions, 8 TD), Mike Bell (654 rushing yards, 5 TD) and Reggie Bush (390 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 8 TD) all figure to get their touches against the Colts, with Thomas serving in the primary role and Bell and Bush being used in their customary supporting roles. Bell has been battling a knee problem and did not have a touch in the NFC Championship against the Vikings, but head coach Sean Payton implied that he would see more action in the Super Bowl. Thomas has 27 carries for 113 yards and two touchdowns in these playoffs, while Bush has 149 yards and three touchdowns on 18 offensive touches.

Saints Wide Receivers: The Saints have three outside threats that can burn you, with Marques Colston (70 receptions, 9 TD), Devery Henderson (51 receptions, 2 TD) and Robert Meachem (45 receptions, 9 TD) all serving as frequent targets in an offense that stresses spreading the ball around liberally. Even Lance Moore (14 receptions, 2 TD), a former starting receiver who has battled ankle and hamstring problems all year, had a catch against the Vikings in the NFC Championship and should be as healthy for this game as he has been in some time. Henderson has scored touchdowns in both New Orleans playoff games this season, the only Saints wideout to achieve that feat. The former first-round pick Meachem has only two receptions for 19 yards in the 2009 playoffs.

Saints Tight Ends: One of the things that makes the Saints so difficult to defend is that, in addition to possessing quality receivers, they have two capable tight ends in David Thomas (35 receptions, 1 TD) and Jeremy Shockey (48 receptions, 3 TD). Thomas, the former Patriot, had 30 catches over his final seven appearances of the regular season. Shockey, who had a touchdown in the Divisional Round win over the Cardinals, has been bothered by a knee problem and reportedly saw specialist Dr. James Andrews last week. Shockey, who missed the Giants' Super Bowl run in 2007 due to injury, seems likely to suit up this time, however.

Saints Offensive Line: The Saints don't have any major names up front, but right tackle Jon Stinchcomb, right guard Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin were all Pro Bowl honorees this season for a team that both passed and ran the ball with tremendous efficiency. The left-side tandem of tackle Jermon Bushrod and guard Carl Nicks is well-respected also, and was part of a group that allowed Brees to be sacked just 20 times in more than 500 drop-back attempts during the regular season. The unit has allowed just one sack during the postseason, that going to the Vikings' Ray Edwards in the NFC Championship.

Colts Defensive Ends: The Colts' entire defensive strategy begins with the effort of Pro Bowl ends Dwight Freeney (24 tackles, 13.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (37 tackles, 9 sacks) to apply pressure on the passer, though against quick-firing Saints quarterback Drew Brees, that will be a difficult hurdle to clear. If Freeney is out due to a much-publicized ankle sprain, the job will get even tougher, though veteran Raheem Brock (32 tackles, 3.5 sacks) - who had a fumble recovery in Super Bowl XLI against the Bears - has plenty of experience and can cause problems of his own. Third-year-pro and ex-starter Keyunta Dawson (17 tackles) will play a lot if Freeney doesn't.

Colts Defensive Tackles: In addition to underrated starters Daniel Muir (52 tackles) and Antonio Johnson (34 tackles, 1 sack), the Colts have received a fine effort on the interior from the lighter Eric Foster (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks), who can also play end and should see a lot of action on passing downs against Brees and the Saints. Muir had five tackles in the AFC Championship win over the Jets, while Foster had three stops. It will be the first Super Bowl for all three players.

Colts Linebackers: A Colts player who figures to have his name called frequently is middle linebacker Gary Brackett (99 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), whose playmaking and tackling ability at the heart of Indy's undersized front seven give Indianapolis an edge. Brackett had a team-best eight tackles against the Jets in the AFC Championship, and paced the club with the same number of stops versus the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Outside starters Clint Session (103 tackles, 2 INT) and Phillip Wheeler (61 tackles, 1 sack) are a little less heralded, and were pushed around a bit this season as the Colts ranked 24th in NFL rushing defense (126.5 yards per game). Freddy Keiaho (38 tackles, 1 sack) and Ramon Humber (32 tackles) are the team's top reserves at linebacker.

Colts Cornerbacks: A group of corners led by Kelvin Hayden (50 tackles, 1 INT) and rookie Jacob Lacey (85 tackles, 3 INT) was not always perfect this season, but gave up very few big plays for a team that was 14th in the league against the pass (212.7 yards per game) and in the Top 10 in TD passes allowed (19). Hayden had six tackles and a late interception against the Jets in the AFC Championship, and memorably capped off Super Bowl XLI with a 56-yard interception return for a touchdown. Rookie Jerraud Powers (66 tackles, 1 INT) missed the Jets win with a foot problem, and is considered questionable for the Super Bowl. If he can't go, Tim Jennings (57 tackles, 2 INT) will likely serve as the team's third corner.

Colts Safeties: The Colts' secondary was supposed to struggle when strong safety Bob Sanders was lost for the season in November, but the truth is that the unit had come together long before Sanders was put on the shelf. Melvin Bullitt (77 tackles) has been a more than capable fill-in at Sanders' spot, and free safety Antoine Bethea (95 tackles, 4 INT) is among the best in the league at his position as well. Bethea participated in Super Bowl XLI, finishing with four tackles while working alongside Sanders. Jamie Silva (30 tackles) and Aaron Francisco (16 tackles) are the backup safeties, and see most of their work on special teams.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

Colts Quarterback: The cameras will follow Manning's every move in the run-up to Super Bowl XLIV, which is no different than the way the Saints will treat him when the game kicks off. The league's first four-time MVP has been outstanding throughout the playoffs, completing 56-of-83 passes for 623 yards, five touchdowns, and one inconsequential interception against the Ravens. Manning (4500 passing yards, 33 TD, 16 INT during the regular season) was 25- of-38 for 247 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in Super Bowl XLI against the Bears. Rookie Curtis Painter is the backup, and if he has to play, the Colts are in major trouble.

Colts Running Backs: The Colts were last in the NFL in rushing during the regular season (80.9 yards per game), 30th in yards per carry (3.5), and never showed much commitment to the running game. Joseph Addai (828 rushing yards, 51 receptions, 13 TD) is a good pass-catcher and red zone threat, but Indianapolis' offensive philosophy basically consigns him to role player status. Addai (103 yards in the '09 playoffs) rushed for 77 yards on 19 carries and had a team-high 10 catches for 66 yards against the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, but it would be a surprise if he got that many touches here. Backups Donald Brown (281 yards, 3 TD during the regular season) and Mike Hart (70 rushing yards, 1 TD) have both had limited opportunities during these playoffs.

Colts Wide Receivers: Manning prefers to throw to perennial Pro Bowler Reggie Wayne (100 receptions, 10 TD) on the outside, but as he showed in the win over the Jets, will move the chains with the capable Pierre Garcon (47 receptions, 4 TD) and rookie Austin Collie (60 receptions, 7 TD) as well. Garcon and Collie combined for 18 catches, 274 yards, and two touchdowns in the AFC Championship. Wayne, who logged one of the major highlights of Super Bowl XLI with his 53- yard touchdown grab, has 11 catches for 118 yards in these playoffs.

Colts Tight Ends: Dallas Clark (100 receptions, 10 TD) was named to the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career this season, with Tony Gonzalez's defection to the NFC having something to do with that, though Clark undoubtedly had his best season. Manning's favorite safety valve, who had four receptions for 36 yards against the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, has 11 receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown in these playoffs. Gijon Robinson (9 receptions) serves in the h-back and No. 2 tight end role, while third tight end Jacob Tamme (3 receptions) rarely troubles the stat sheet.

Colts Offensive Line: The Indy front line is led by veteran center Jeff Saturday, a perennial Pro Bowl honoree who sets the tone up front for a group that allowed an NFL-low 13 sacks during the regular season. Manning was dumped twice by the Jets early-on, but Gang Green did not get near him often over the final 50 minutes of the AFC Championship. Tackles Charlie Johnson (left side) and Ryan Diem (right side) have been solid all year, though guards Ryan Lilja (left side) and Kyle DeVan (right) were part of a group that didn't have a terrific year from an inside-running standpoint. Saturday, Diem, and Lilja all started Super Bowl XLI against the Bears, while Johnson appeared as a reserve.

Saints Defensive Ends: The Saints' d-line was a strength this season as well, but the season-ending triceps injury suffered by end Charles Grant on the eve of the playoffs weakened the unit. Still, the Colts will have to account for Will Smith (49 tackles, 13 sacks) coming off the edge, and fill-in Bobby McCray (12 tackles, 1.5 sacks) has plenty of experience against Manning from his tenure with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Smith, who is expected to play despite a lingering groin injury, has an interception and a forced fumble in these playoffs.

Saints Defensive Tackles: Anthony Hargrove (42 tackles, 5 sacks) and Sedrick Ellis (34 tackles, 2 sacks) were at the heart of a Saints unit that ranked 21st in NFL rushing defense (122.2 yards per game), and also near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per carry (4.5 yards per rush). Ellis had six tackles in the NFC Championship win over the Vikings. Another active member of the DT rotation is Remi Ayodele (30 tackles, 1.5 sacks) who had five tackles and a fumble recovery versus Minnesota.

Saints Linebackers: Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' best work this season may have been done with a linebacking corps that was not viewed as a team strength coming out of training camp. Still, the defense thrived despite the presence of average journeymen Scott Fujita (58 tackles, 1 sack) and Scott Shanle (69 tackles, 1 INT) on the outside, and Jets castoff Jonathan Vilma (110 tackles, 3 INT, 2 sacks) in the middle. All three players made an impression in the NFC Championship - Shanle posted 10 tackles in the win, Fujita added value with a fumble recovery, and Vilma had one of his best games of the year with five tackles, and interception, a fumble recovery and forced fumble.

Saints Cornerbacks: Cornerbacks Jabari Greer (44 tackles, 2 INT) and Tracy Porter (57 tackles, 4 INT) have been among the top playmakers for a secondary adept at coming up with turnovers. The second-year-pro Porter had one of the enduring moments in Saints history when he intercepted Favre late in the NFC Championship to negate a potential game-winning field goal attempt. Randall Gay (37 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) will probably serve as the New Orleans nickel back, and against the Colts' many targets, the team would love to have rookie first- rounder Malcolm Jenkins (55 tackles, 1 INT), who missed the NFC Championship with a hamstring problem, available as well. Gay, who as mentioned played in two Super Bowls as a Patriot, is expected to play through a foot problem.

Saints Safeties: If there was one new defensive face who made a world of difference for the Saints in 2009, it was Pro Bowl free safety Darren Sharper (71 tackles, 9 INT). The 34-year-old Sharper - who was tied for the NFL lead in interceptions during the regular season - will play in a Super Bowl for the first time since his rookie season of 1997, when he advanced to the game as a member of the Packers. The other safety is Roman Harper (102 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who was second on the Saints in tackles and has functioned well as almost a fourth linebacker. Pierson Prioleau (29 tackles) is the next available safety.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Saints Placekicker: New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley (9-11 FG) certainly doesn't have the pedigree of his predecessor John Carney or his counterpart Matt Stover, but has an accurate leg and should have plenty of confidence coming off his game-winning field goal against the Vikings in the NFC Championship. Punter Thomas Morstead handles the team's kickoffs, and has done a nice job during the postseason with six touchbacks in 13 attempts.

Saints Punter: The rookie Morstead (43.6 avg.) has not quite lived up to his fifth-round billing during the regular season, with only 18 of his 58 punts landing inside the 20-yard line, though the SMU product has been better in the postseason. Morstead has averaged 48.2 yards on 11 boots in the Saints' two playoff games, with only 15 return yards against his group.

Saints Long-snapper: Among the Saints' most grizzled veterans is 37-year-old long-snapper Jason Kyle, who was signed by New Orleans in June after previously playing for the Seahawks (1995-96, 98), 49ers (2000), and Panthers (2001-08). Kyle, a fourth-round pick by Seattle as a linebacker out of Arizona State in the 1995 Draft, played with Carolina in its Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to New England.

Saints Punt Returners: Reggie Bush's 83-yard punt return for a touchdown against the Cardinals in the Divisional Round is one of the indelible images of these playoffs, though Bush averaged just 4.8 yards per return during the regular season and lost a potentially costly fumble against the Vikings in the NFC Championship. There has not been a punt return for a touchdown in Super Bowl history.

Saints Kickoff Returners: Courtney Roby may be just as dangerous as Bush, as he ranked near the top of the league in kickoff return avg (27.5, 1 TD) during the regular season and has a 61-yard return to his credit in these playoffs. Roby was briefly a member of the Colts, appearing in the 2008 opener against the Bears as a kickoff returner.

Saints Special Teams Defense: The Saints were the worst punt-covering team in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 14.3 yards per punt return including a 77-yard touchdown return for Micheal Spurlock that helped sink them against the Buccaneers late in the season. As mentioned, they've had no problems in that area during the 2009 postseason. New Orleans wasn't much better against kickoffs, ranking 29th in the league with 24.5 yards allowed per return, though the Saints did not allow a TD in that realm. In the postseason, New Orleans has not allowed a kickoff return of longer than 32 yards and held the Vikings' Percy Harvin (2 returns, 33 yards) in check during the NFC Championship.

Colts Placekicker: The 42-year-old Stover (9-11 FG) doesn't have a great leg beyond 45 yards at this stage of his career, but is borderline automatic from 40 and in, where he was 11-of-12 (regular season and playoffs) this season. Stover is 5-of-5 on trifectas in the playoffs, including his season-long of 44 against the Ravens in the divisional round. The club uses punter Pat McAfee on kickoffs, where he had 21 touchbacks on 80 kickoff attempts during the regular season.

Colts Punter: McAfee (44.3 avg.) has made most Colts fans forget about reliable ex-punter Hunter Smith, though it's always a bit nerve-wracking to rely on a rookie in a key role on Super Bowl Sunday. The West Virginia product has improved his numbers in the postseason, averaging 46 yards per boot and having six of his 10 punt attempts go for fair catches.

Colts Long-snapper: Just as he did during the Colts' Super Bowl run in 2006, Justin Snow serves as the team's ultra-reliable long snapper. The 33-year-old Snow has served in that capacity since the 2000 season without missing a game.

Colts Punt Returners: The Colts are not looking for reserve cornerback/punt returner T.J. Rushing to do much more than field the ball cleanly, which is a good thing, because he averaged just 5.7 yards per return during the regular season and has been only slightly better at 6.6 during the playoffs. Rushing, whose only career punt return for a TD came against the Raiders on Dec. 16, 2007, was an inactive rookie in Super Bowl XLI.

Colts Kickoff Returners: Chad Simpson (23.6 avg.) has proven capable of breaking off a big special teams play, as his 93-yard kickoff return for a TD against the Jaguars in Week 14 helped Indianapolis win that contest. Simpson has averaged 24.3 yards per kick return in these playoffs, with a long of 33 against the Jets in the AFC Championship.

Colts Special Teams Defense: Indianapolis fans certainly remember the specter of the Bears' Devin Hester running back the opening kickoff of Super Bowl XLI for a touchdown, so this will be a particular area of interest for the team. The Colts kickoff coverage unit has also been susceptible to the big return this season, allowing a disappointing 25.3 yards on kickoffs, including a 106- yard TD return to the Jets' Brad Smith in a Week 16 loss. The Colts have not allowed a big return via either punt or kickoff during these playoffs.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Apart from the two quarterbacks, much of what the Colts and Saints are about defies a simple evaluation of personnel. Are these the two most talented teams in the league? Probably not. But strong systems, good coaching, and a winning culture have equaled a combined record of 31-5 this season - these teams know how to win. But knowing that, this game will be won based on the subtlety of a few matchup advantages. The New Orleans defense has had success this season by forcing turnovers, and Manning is as careful a quarterback as you'll find in the NFL. The Colts are going to score some points here, and will show an ability to keep the ball out of Brees' hands, thus reducing his margin for error dramatically. When the Saints do control it, don't count on them matching the Colts score-for-score, or from staying mistake-free when it matters.

Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Saints 17

 

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NFL Super Bowl XLIV Matchup - New Orleans vs. Indianapolis

NFL Super Bowl XLIV Matchup - New Orleans vs. Indianapolis

NFL Super Bowl XLIV Matchup - New Orleans vs. Indianapolis

New Orleans Saints (15-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (16-2)
Date: Sunday, February 7th, 2010
Kickoff: 6:28 p.m. (et)
Site: Sun Life Stadium (75,192) -- Miami, Florida
Surface: Grass (PAT)
Home Record: New Orleans 8-2; Indianapolis 9-1
Away Record: New Orleans 7-1; Indianapolis 7-1
Versus A-F-C: New Orleans 4-0
Versus N-F-C: Indianapolis 4-0
Versus Playoff Teams: New Orleans 5-1; Indianapolis 5-1
Current Win/Loss Streak: New Orleans 2W; Indianapolis 2W
Television: CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
Playoff Record: New Orleans 4-6; Indianapolis 21-18
All-Time Series: Tied (5-5)
Last Meeting: September 6, 2007 (Indianapolis, 41-10 at Indianapolis)
Series Streak: Indianapolis has won the last two meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
New Orleans Saints
Sep 13 - W vs. Detroit, 45-27
Sep 20 - W at Philadelphia, 48-22
Sep 27 - W at Buffalo, 27-7
Oct 4 - W vs. NY Jets, 24-10
Oct 11 - Open
Oct 18 - W vs. NY Giants, 48-27
Oct 25 - W at Miami, 46-34
Nov 2 - W vs. Atlanta, 35-27
Nov 8 - W vs. Carolina, 30-20
Nov 15 - W at St. Louis, 28-23
Nov 22 - W at Tampa Bay, 38-7
Nov 30 - W vs. New England, 38-17
Dec 6 - W at Washington, 33-30 (OT)
Dec 13 - W at Atlanta, 26-23
Dec 19 - L vs. Dallas, 17-24
Dec 27 - L vs. Tampa Bay, 17-20 (OT)
Jan 3 - L at Carolina, 10-23
Jan 10 - Open
Jan 16 - W vs. Arizona, 45-14 (NFC Divisional Playoff)
Jan 24 - W vs. Minnesota, 31-28 (OT) (NFC Championship)
Feb 7 - vs. Indianapolis, 6:28 PM (Super Bowl XLIV - Miami, FL)
Indianapolis Colts
Sep 13 - W vs. Jacksonville, 14-12
Sep 21 - W at Miami, 27-23
Sep 27 - W at Arizona, 31-10
Oct 4 - W vs. Seattle, 34-17
Oct 11 - W at Tennessee, 31-9
Oct 18 - Open
Oct 25 - W at St. Louis, 42-6
Nov 1 - W vs. San Francisco, 18-14
Nov 8 - W vs. Houston, 20-17
Nov 15 - W vs. New England, 35-34
Nov 22 - W at Baltimore, 17-15
Nov 29 - W at Houston, 35-27
Dec 6 - W vs. Tennessee, 27-17
Dec 13 - W vs. Denver, 28-16
Dec 17 - W at Jacksonville, 35-31
Dec 27 - L vs. NY Jets, 15-29
Jan 3 - L at Buffalo, 7-30
Jan 10 - Open
Jan 16 - W vs. Baltimore, 20-3 (AFC Divisional Playoff)
Jan 24 - W vs. NY Jets, 30-17 (AFC Championship)
Feb 7 - vs. New Orleans, 6:28 PM (Super Bowl XLIV - Miami, FL)



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New Orleans Saints Playoff Results (4-6)

New Orleans Saints Playoff Results (4-6)

New Orleans Saints Playoff Results (4-6)



Date Game Result (Location)
1/24/10 NFC Championship New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28 OT (New Orleans)
1/16/10 NFC Divisional New Orleans 45, Arizona 14 (New Orleans)
1/21/07 NFC Championship Chicago 39, New Orleans 14 (Chicago)
1/13/07 NFC Divisional New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24 (New Orleans)
1/6/01 NFC Divisional Minnesota 34, New Orleans, 16 (Minnesota)
12/30/00 NFC Wild Card New Orleans 31, St. Louis 28 (New Orleans)
1/3/93 NFC Wild Card Philadelphia 36, New Orleans 20 (New Orleans)
12/28/91 NFC Wild Card Atlanta 27, New Orleans 20 (New Orleans)
1/6/91 NFC Wild Card Chicago 16, New Orleans 6 (Chicago)
1/3/88 NFC First Round Minnesota 44, New Orleans 10 (New Orleans)

 

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Indianapolis Colts Playoff Results

Indianapolis Colts Playoff Results

Indianapolis Colts Playoff Results
(11-11, 21-18, overall)



Date Game Result (Location)
1/24/10 AFC Championship Indianapolis 30, N.Y. Jets 17 (Indianapolis)
1/16/10 AFC Divisional Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3 (Indianapolis)
1/3/09 AFC Wild Card San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 OT (San Diego)
1/13/08 AFC Divisional San Diego 28, Indianapolis 24 (Indianapolis)
2/4/07 Super Bowl XLI Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17 (Miami, FL)
1/21/07 AFC Championship Indianapolis 38, New England 34 (Indianapolis)
1/13/07 AFC Divisional Indianapolis 15, Baltimore 6 (Baltimore)
1/6/07 AFC Wild Card Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 8 (Indianapolis)
1/15/06 AFC Divisional Pittsburgh 21, Indianapolis 18 (Indianapolis)
1/16/05 AFC Divisional New England 20, Indianapolis 3 (New England)
1/9/05 AFC Wild Card Indianapolis 49, Denver 24 (Indianapolis)
1/18/04 AFC Championship New England 24, Indianapolis 14 (New England)
1/11/04 AFC Divisional Indianapolis 38, Kansas City 31 (Kansas City)
1/4/04 AFC Wild Card Indianpolis 41, Denver 10 (Indianpolis)
1/4/03 AFC Wild Card N.Y. Jets 41, Indianapolis (New York)
12/30/00 AFC Wild Card Miami 23, Indianapolis 17 OT (Miami)
1/16/00 AFC Divisional Tennessee 19, Indianapolis 16 (Indianapolis)
12/29/96 AFC Wild Card Pittsburgh 42, Indianapolis 14 (Pittsburgh)
1/14/96 AFC Championship Pittsburgh 20, Indianapolis (Pittsburgh)
1/7/96 AFC Divisional Indianapolis 10, Kansas City 7 (Kansas City)
12/31/95 AFC Wild Card Indianapolis 35, San Diego 20 (San Diego)
1/9/88 AFC Divisional Cleveland 38, Indianapolis 21 (Cleveland)

Baltimore Colts Playoff Results (10-7)
From The Sports Network


Date Game Result (Location)
12/24/77 AFC Divisional Oakland 37, Baltimore 31 OT (Baltimore)
12/19/76 AFC Divisional Pittsburgh 40, Baltimore 14 (Baltimore)
12/27/75 AFC Divisional Pittsburgh 28, Baltimore 10 (Pittsburgh)
1/2/72 AFC Championship Miami 21, Baltimore 0 (Miami)
12/26/71 AFC Divisional Baltimore 20, Cleveland 3 (Cleveland)
1/17/71 Super Bowl V Baltimore 16, Dallas 13 (Miami)
1/3/71 AFC Championship Baltimore 27, Oakland 17 (Baltimore)
12/26/70 NFL Divisional Baltimore 17, Cincinnati 0 (Baltimore)
1/12/69 Super Bowl III Ny Jets 16, Baltimore 7 (Miami)
12/29/68 NFL Championship Baltimore 34, Cleveland 0 (Cleveland)
12/22/68 NFL Playoffs Baltimore 34, Minnesota 14 (Baltimore)
1/8/67 NFL Playoffs Baltimore 20, Philadelphia 14 (Miami)
1/9/66 NFL Playoffs Baltimore 35, Dallas 3 (Miami)
12/26/65 NFL Playoffs Green Bay 13, Baltimore 10 OT (Green Bay)
12/27/64 NFL Championship Cleveland 27, Baltimore 0 (Cleveland)
12/27/59 NFL Championship Baltimore 31, Ny Giants 16 (Baltimore)
12/28/58 NFL Championship Baltimore 23, Ny Giants 17 OT (New York)

 

[Lumi]

Preview: Saints (13-3) at Colts (14-2)

Preview: Saints (13-3) at Colts (14-2)

Preview: Saints (13-3) at Colts (14-2)


Date: February 07, 2010 6:25 PM EDT

There may be more than a few people who are having a tough time hashing out their loyalties for Super Bowl XLIV. They'll be watching a pair of quarterbacks, though, who are about as decisive as it gets.

Peyton Manning faces his hometown team, once quarterbacked by his father, as the Indianapolis Colts try for their second title in four years Sunday at Miami in a matchup with Drew Brees and a New Orleans Saints team making its Super Bowl debut.

Three years ago, Manning won his first championship, leading Indianapolis to a 29-17 win over Chicago in South Florida. He's returning to the same site, this time to face a team that has deep roots in his family.



New Orleans is the city where his father, Archie, played and still lives. Manning played at Isidore Newman High School in New Orleans, as did his brothers, Eli - who won a Super Bowl with the New York Giants two years ago - and Cooper.

If Manning can outduel Brees in what has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls, many fans in New Orleans will certainly be celebrating their hometown hero's accomplishment.

"New Orleans is a huge part of my life, as well as Eli's life," said Manning, who became the only four-time league MVP this season. "My dad's been a part of the Saints organization for 39 years in some ways. We definitely have strong ties."

Manning's top receiver, Reggie Wayne, also grew up in New Orleans and Colts running back Joseph Addai was still playing for LSU when Hurricane Katrina devastated the area in 2005.

Despite those ties, the Saints (15-3) have the undying loyalty of New Orleans natives, perhaps as much for their role in helping rebuild the city following Katrina as their success on the field.

New Orleans, still in recovery mode, has gotten a boost from the Saints' rise to prominence. The 43-year-old franchise has never appeared in the Super Bowl.

"It's a moment I've been waiting for a long time," Brees said. "The job is not done yet but obviously we're going to enjoy this. Now we've got to finish it in Miami."

If the Saints win, parts of northwest Indiana will be cheering.

Near the Purdue campus in West Lafayette, 65 miles from Indianapolis, loyalties are split. Brees remains an icon in the area after leading the Boilermakers' revival a decade ago.

Brees led the NFL with a 109.8 passer rating, throwing for 4,388 yards and a league-best 34 touchdown passes. He threw for three TDs as New Orleans won the NFC championship game 31-28 in overtime against Minnesota on Jan. 24.

With plenty of options offensively, New Orleans led the NFL with 31.9 points per game. The Colts were seventh, averaging 26.0 points.

"You understand just how explosive their offense can be," Manning said. "I think you have to be careful trying to get out of your rhythm in order to keep up with them. You still have to go play offense the way we have played all year, trying to be efficient. We have been excellent on third down, been good in the red zone. Those things will be important this year."

Manning once was criticized for his failure to win big games, but he's won six if his last eight playoff contests. He's led the Colts to a 16-2 record this season, and they may have been perfect if Manning and other starters weren't rested by first-year coach Jim Caldwell in the final two games of the regular season.

Manning is attempting to join a short list of quarterbacks, including John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady and Joe Montana, to win more than one Super Bowl.

After finishing 2009 second in the NFL in yards passing (4,500) and TD passes (33), Manning was masterful in beating Baltimore and the Jets - two of league's best defenses - in the postseason. Manning has a 104.6 passer rating in the playoffs, throwing a total of five TDs and one interception.

Manning passed for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the league's top-ranked defense in the AFC championship game, leading Indianapolis to a 30-17 win over New York on Jan. 24.

Colts defensive leader Dwight Freeney, though, suffered a torn ligament in his right ankle, which has been keeping him out of practice. The All-Pro defensive end, who led Indianapolis with 3 1/2 sacks, expects to play but it could be in a limited role.

"I think he'll be back and playing third downs. And I think he'll be effective, until I see something different," said Raheem Brock, who is first in line to replace Freeney in the lineup.

Freeney's absence would be a big blow to the Colts, who ranked eighth in scoring defense (19.2 points per game) during the regular season and have been impressive during the playoffs.

New Orleans ranked 20th in scoring defense, giving up 21.3 points a contest, and has surrendered a total of 42 in the postseason. The Saints, though, have been opportunistic, forcing 39 turnovers during the regular season and seven in the playoffs.

Against one of the NFL's top offenses in the NFC title game, New Orleans intercepted Brett Favre twice and recovered three fumbles. However, Favre wasn't sacked in that contest and the Saints have one in two postseason games.

Though Manning was sacked 10 times in the regular season, New Orleans' only chance defensively may be to find a way to pressure him. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams created a buzz by saying the Saints will try to put some "remember-me hits" on Manning.

To help out their defense, New Orleans may focus a bit more on running the ball in an attempt to control the clock and keep Manning off the field.

Pierre Thomas led New Orleans with 793 yards on the ground during the regular season, but Reggie Bush is the Saints' most dynamic player at that position. Bush has been relatively disappointing as a running back since being selected No. 2 overall in the 2006 draft, but he's been a more physical runner in the postseason and he can make big plays as a receiver and a returner.

Bush has run one TD apiece rushing, receiving and returning in the postseason.

"They have really good backs, fast backs with Reggie Bush," Colts linebacker Clint Session said. "We try not to get a lot of separation with a guy like him in the open field, so we're probably playing him a little tighter than normal.

"We have to know the beast, as we call it. Know the beast, respect his speed, and try to keep a close eye on him."

Bush was held to 38 yards on 12 carries, seven yards on four receptions and two yards on one punt return in the last meeting between the teams, a 41-10 Colts win Sept. 6, 2007. Manning threw for 288 yards and three TDs - two to Wayne - while Brees was picked off twice and finished with 192 yards.

 

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Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Week 21


NEW ORLEANS (15-3) vs INDIANAPOLIS (16-2)

Game Time: 6:25 p.m. EDT Sunday, February 7

Stadium: RCA Dome Surface: turf






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NEW ORLEANS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 8 - 2 7 - 1 15 - 3 5 - 5 4 - 4 9 - 9 5 - 5 4 - 4 9 - 9
Last 5 games 2 - 2 0 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 3 0 - 1 1 - 4 2 - 2 0 - 1 2 - 3
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 5 1 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 5
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
INDIANAPOLIS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 9 - 1 7 - 1 16 - 2 5 - 5 7 - 1 12 - 6 5 - 5 5 - 3 10 - 8
Last 5 games 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 0 4 - 1
YTD vs. Div. 3 - 0 3 - 0 6 - 0 1 - 2 3 - 0 4 - 2 0 - 3 2 - 1 2 - 4
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
NEW ORLEANS 4 - 3 0 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 2 5 - 5 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 5
INDIANAPOLIS 6 - 0 1 - 1 6 - 0 1 - 1 5 - 5 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 5



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

NEW ORLEANS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun DET 45 - 27 W -11.5 -14 W +4 50.0 49.5 O +22.5 T
09/20/09 Sun @PHI 48 - 22 W +0 -3 W +23 46.0 46.0 O +24.0 T
09/27/09 Sun @BUF 27 - 7 W -3 -6 W +14 51.5 51.0 U -17.0 T
10/04/09 Sun NYJ 24 - 10 W -4.5 -7.5 W +6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/18/09 Sun NYG 48 - 27 W -3 -3 W +18 49.0 47.5 O +27.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @MIA 46 - 34 W -7 -6.5 W +5.5 48.0 47.5 O +32.5 G
11/02/09 Mon ATL 35 - 27 W -7.5 -11 L -3 53.0 55.5 O + 6.5 T
11/08/09 Sun CAR 30 - 20 W -14.5 -11.5 L -1.5 51.0 51.5 U -1.5 T
11/15/09 Sun @STL 28 - 23 W -13.5 -14 L -9 48.0 50.5 O + 0.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @TB 38 - 7 W -13 -10.5 W +20.5 50.0 51.0 U -6.0 G
11/30/09 Mon NE 38 - 17 W -3 -2 W +19 54.5 57.0 U -2.0 T
12/06/09 Sun @WAS 33 - 30 W -7.5 -9 L -6 47.0 47.0 O +16.0 G
12/13/09 Sun @ATL 26 - 23 W -9.5 -10 L -7 51.0 50.5 U -1.5 T
12/19/09 Sat DAL 17 - 24 L -7.5 -7.5 L -14.5 54.5 53.5 U -12.5 T
12/27/09 Sun TB 17 - 20 L -14 -14 L -17 49.5 49.0 U -12.0 T
01/03/10 Sun @CAR 10 - 23 L +7 +10 L -3 42.5 41.0 U -8.0 G
01/16/10 Sat ARI 45 - 14 W -6.5 -7 W +24 57.5 57.0 O + 2.0 T
01/24/10 Sun MIN 31 - 28 W -3.5 -4 L -1 52.5 54.0 O + 5.0 T


INDIANAPOLIS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun JAC 14 - 12 W -7.5 -6.5 L -4.5 43.0 45.0 U -19.0 T
09/21/09 Mon @MIA 27 - 23 W -3 -3 W +1 40.5 41.0 O + 9.0 G
09/27/09 Sun @ARI 31 - 10 W +0 +3 W +24 49.5 49.5 U -8.5 G
10/04/09 Sun SEA 34 - 17 W -9.5 -10 W +7 43.0 44.0 O + 7.0 T
10/11/09 Sun @TEN 31 - 9 W -4.5 -4 W +18 43.0 44.5 U -4.5 G
10/25/09 Sun @STL 42 - 6 W -11.5 -14 W +22 43.0 45.5 O + 2.5 T
11/01/09 Sun SF 18 - 14 W -9.5 -13 L -9 45.0 45.0 U -13.0 T
11/08/09 Sun HOU 20 - 17 W -9.5 -7.5 L -4.5 49.0 50.5 U -13.5 T
11/15/09 Sun NE 35 - 34 W -3 -2.5 L -1.5 46.5 48.5 O +20.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @BAL 17 - 15 W +0 -1 W +1 44.5 44.5 U -12.5 G
11/29/09 Sun @HOU 35 - 27 W -3.5 -3 W +5 49.0 48.0 O +14.0 G
12/06/09 Sun TEN 27 - 17 W -8.5 -6 W +4 44.5 46.5 U -2.5 T
12/13/09 Sun DEN 28 - 16 W -8.5 -6.5 W +5.5 44.0 43.5 O + 0.5 T
12/17/09 Thu @JAC 35 - 31 W -6.5 -3 W +1 46.5 43.0 O +23.0 G
12/27/09 Sun NYJ 15 - 29 L -7 -3.5 L -17.5 42.5 40.5 O + 3.5 T
01/03/10 Sun @BUF 7 - 30 L +8 +8 L -15 35.0 32.0 O + 5.0 T
01/16/10 Sat BAL 20 - 3 W -6.5 -6.5 W +10.5 44.5 44.0 U -21.0 T
01/24/10 Sun NYJ 30 - 17 W -7 -8 W +5 41.5 40.0 O + 7.0 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/06/07 Thu NO 10 IND 41 -6.5 -5.5 IND +25.5 52.0 53.5 U -2.5 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NO (off) 32.0 21 30 143 4.8 34 23 0.7 241 7.1 384 1.0 0.6 .00
IND (def) 17.6 18 27 108 4.0 36 23 0.6 226 6.3 334 0.9 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NO (def) 21.1 19 26 116 4.5 37 23 0.6 243 6.6 359 1.5 0.9 .00
IND (off) 24.1 23 24 76 3.2 42 27 0.6 291 6.9 367 1.1 0.3 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NO (off) 32.6 22 29 131 4.5 34 23 0.7 266 7.8 397 0.7 0.9 .00
IND (def) 18.2 19 29 122 4.2 36 23 0.6 216 6.0 338 1.1 0.7 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NO (def) 21.3 20 27 124 4.6 36 21 0.6 241 6.7 365 1.6 0.9 .00
IND (off) 25.9 22 23 80 3.5 38 25 0.7 283 7.4 363 1.1 0.3 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

NEW ORLEANS (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.8 9.3 13.1 8.6 10.0 0.4 19
POINTS ALLOWED 6.4 7.1 13.5 5.4 2.3 0.0 7.7



INDIANAPOLIS (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 5.7 9.1 14.8 3.0 6.3 0.0 9.3
POINTS ALLOWED 2.0 7.0 9 2.2 6.4 0.0 8.6



NEW ORLEANS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.3 10.9 17.2 6.9 8.1 0.3 15.3
POINTS ALLOWED 7.1 5.6 12.7 5.4 3.1 0.2 8.7



INDIANAPOLIS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 5.5 9.7 15.2 3.6 7.1 0.0 10.7
POINTS ALLOWED 3.8 6.8 10.6 2.9 4.7 0.0 7.6



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
NEW ORLEANS 53.5
INDIANAPOLIS 56 -6.0 2.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 49 9 under

 

[Lumi]

Special Teams

Special Teams

Special Teams
February 3, 2010

The special teams' units for both the Saints and Colts will play a vital part in Super Bowl XLIV. The offenses will likely rack up the yardage and points, but field position will be dictated by the return men on both sides. The amount of special teams props can make bettors money, as long as you look in the right places.

Saints' special teams

New Orleans ranked the near the bottom of the league in punt returns this season, totaling 152 yards. However, the Saints accumulated 109 yards in the two playoff victories, including an 83-yard touchdown return by Reggie Bush against the Cardinals. New Orleans had only one other special teams touchdown during the season, as Courtney Roby took back a kickoff return for a score at St. Louis in Week 10.

The perception of Bush is he can break off a solid punt return at any time. However, the numbers this season don't dictate that, as the former USC standout ranked 27th in the league in punt return average and 30th in total punt return yards. On the flip side, Roby was solid returning kicks, finishing the regular season averaging 27.5 yards/return, which was good for third in the league.

There aren't any specific props from the Las Vegas Hilton regarding punt or kick return yardage, but if either team scores a special teams or defensive touchdown, the payout is nice. If a non-offensive touchdown is scored in Super Bowl XLIV, the return is $155 on a $100 bet. If you think the special teams and defense will not score a touchdown, you would bet $175 to win $100.

For those that aren't fans of kickers or punters, these guys can be your best friend or biggest enemy on Super Sunday. Garrett Hartley kicked the Saints into the Super Bowl with a 40-yard field goal in overtime to beat the Vikings, 31-28. Hartley took over in Week 13 for the aging John Carney, lifting New Orleans past Washington in overtime in his first game. Hartley is averaging 7.57 points in the seven games as the Saints' kicker, while tallying at least seven points in four contests. That's important since the total on Hartley's points in the game according to the Hilton is 6 ? (Bet $1.10 to win $1.00 on either 'over' or 'under').

As far as field goals made by Hartley goes, the total is set at 1 ?. Hartley has made exactly one field goal in each of the last five games, as the 'under' is a chalky -210 (Lay $2.10 to win $1.00). If you want a nice return on the 'over,' bet $1.00 to win $1.80.





Thomas Morstead isn't exactly a guy many non-Saints fans would know, but he is the rookie punter for New Orleans. The ex-SMU Mustang didn't have to work as hard as other punters around the league thanks to the success of the Saints' offense. New Orleans ranked 30th in the league in punts with 58, but Morstead booted away 11 punts in the two playoff games.

Morstead is tied into several props, including one with a solid payout. The Hilton has listed if Morstead will punt a touchback. Before the odds are revealed, we'll tell you how often the rookie has done so this season. Morstead nailed four touchbacks in the regular season, while only one of his 11 postseason punts landed in the end zone. The return on "Yes" is +220 (Bet $1.00 to win $2.20), while "No" is a chalky -260 (Bet $2.60 to win $1.00).

Colts' special teams

Indianapolis doesn't hold a great advantage in the return game over New Orleans, as kick returner Chad Simpson ranks 22nd in the league averaging 23.6 yards/return. Simpson is responsible for the Colts' lone special teams touchdown, coming in Week 15 at Jacksonville. T.J. Rushing finished three slots ahead of Bush in the punt return game, averaging 5.7 yards/return.

The Colts have also gone through several kickers this season, starting with former Super Bowl standout Adam Vinatieri. The ex-Patriot kicked the first five weeks of the season before an injury shelved him the rest of the way. Indianapolis turned to veteran Matt Stover to take Vinatieri's place on the roster. The all-time leading scorer in Ravens' history converted nine of 11 field-goal attempts this season, as the Colts were tied for last in the league with 16 field goals.

Due to Indianapolis' powerful offense, the Colts attempted just six field goals outside of 40 yards this season. The Hilton has listed total points for Stover at eight, with the 'over' at even money. If you want to take 'under' eight points, you would have to lay $1.20 to win $1.00. Stover tallied eight points against the Ravens and 12 points against the Jets in the playoffs.

The longest made field goal of the game is listed at 42 ? for either side (-110 each way). Both teams combined to make six of ten field goals from 40 yards or longer, but the two clubs kicked a total of three field goals in the postseason from this distance.

The Colts punted away 64 times this season, which ranked 27th in the league. Pat McAfee ranked 13th in yards per punt at 44.3, while knocking through six touchbacks. The longest gross punt prop for McAfee is listed at 52 ? (-110 each way), as his longest punt was at least 53 in ten games this season.

Which team has the edge?

Both these teams haven't had to rely on their kicking games for points thanks to ranking high in many offensive categories. On the flip side, the return men are just an added bonus for field position purposes. The Colts have the kicker with more experience, but the Saints have a kicker with a younger and stronger leg. Even though Bush's numbers aren't fantastic this season, he is always a big-play threat that can break one at any time.

Edge: Saints

 

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Peyton Manning vs. Saints' Secondary

Peyton Manning vs. Saints' Secondary

Peyton Manning vs. Saints' Secondary


We continue to break down Super Bowl XLIV, we?re seeing the Saints matching up with Indianapolis fairly well. But how well can New Orleans? secondary match up against the Colts? All-World quarterback, Peyton Manning? Let?s find out.

Peyton Manning

What can I possibly say about Peyton Manning that hasn?t been said about him already? Well, I heard that he noisily eats kittens at the Soldiers? and Sailors? Monument in downtown Indy. Okay, that?s a total lie, but it?s the only thing that probably hadn?t been said about Manning.

We can look at the beginning of his career, when the Colts were debating on taking either Manning or Washington State?s Ryan Leaf with the No. 1 pick in the 1998 NFL Draft. It definitely goes without saying that Indianapolis and its President Bill Polian made the correct choice.

All the signal caller from Tennessee has done in his 12 years in Indianapolis is complete 65 percent of his passes for 50,128 yards, 366 touchdowns and just 181 interceptions. Manning also has the highest passer rating for a single season to his credit (121.1), achieved back in 2004. And let?s not forget that he won the Most Valuable Player award in Super Bowl XLI.

As if those numbers aren?t scary enough, we could even hypothesize that Manning is in the prime of his career right now. Over the last four seasons, Manning has completed 67 percent of his passes for an average of 4,235 yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 picks. This year alone, Indy?s signal caller has thrown for the second-most yards in a season for his career (4,500) and his most throwing scores (33) since tossing for 49 in 2004.



Manning has shown that he can stand up to the upper echelon of opposition this year with a 3-1 record against playoff qualifiers. In those four regular season tests, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,197 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions.

During this run to the Super Bowl, Manning has the most passing yards of any QB in the playoffs (623) and is second to only Drew Brees in touchdown-to-interception ration (5:1). And keep in mind that he put those numbers up against two of the NFL?s best defenses, the Ravens (300.5 yards per game) and the Jets (252.3 YPG).

New Orleans? Secondary

When you think of a team that has a great offense, they normally are lacking on the defensive side of the ball. If you?re looking the points allowed, then the 21.3 points per game isn?t all that attractive. Even against the pass, the Saints are in the lower levels of the league at 26th by giving up 235.6 passing yards per game.

While the numbers on scoring and passing are awfully big, they hide the fact that New Orleans has one hell of a secondary. The Saints were behind only to the Packers and Bill this year with 26 interceptions during the regular season. Their secondary unit of Jabari Greer, Roman Harper, Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter have combined for an average 69 tackle per player with 15 total interceptions, returning five of those for touchdowns.

That quartet was definitely up to the task when taking on playoff qualifiers this season. The Saints? starting secondary combined for an average of 22 tackles per game, two forced fumbles, recovering one. They also picked off six passes, taking two of them to the house.

Sharper has been incredible this year for New Orleans, picking off nine passes, returning three for touchdowns. To give you an idea of how much of a factor this guy is, Bodog has only listed him for a prop of possibly picking off a pass in Super Bowl XLIV (Yes +250, No -325).

Who has the edge?

If the Saints were going against any other quarterback that played in the AFC playoffs, I?d give them the edge. Playing against Peyton Manning, however, doesn?t give them a chance at the advantage.

Manning has proven that you can get to him early. If you don?t change your gameplan, he?s going to make you pay. We saw him get knocked down a few times by the Jets early on in the AFC Title Game. And yet you knew that even though the Colts were trailing at halftime of that game, you knew they were going to win. Manning adjusts better to defenses better than anyone in the league.

I see this matchup as the Saints? secondary will get a couple of chances early in the game when nerves are an issue. After that, it?s all for the Colts? QB.

Edge: Indianapolis

 

[Lumi]

Coaching X's and O's

Coaching X's and O's

Coaching X's and O's


San Francisco captured three Super Bowl championships under head coach Bill Walsh.
Jimmy Johnson helped Dallas dominated in the early nineties, which produced two Super Bowl victories.

Pittsburgh claimed its fifth ring in Super Bowl XL when Bill Cowher led the Black and Gold to a win.



Soon after those legendary coaches stepped down, they were replaced by George Seifert, Barry Switzer and Mike Tomlin respectively. While none of those coaches garnered a lot of attention, they all managed to win a Super Bowl.

This Sunday, we could add another non-sexy hire to that group as Jim Caldwell tries to lead Indianapolis to its second championship in four years. Caldwell took the head coaching duties this offseason from Tony Dungy, who finished with an 85-27 victory in Indianapolis, which included a championship.

One question that?s often debated in all of sport -- Does coaching win championships or talent?

With all due respect to Caldwell and Dungy, neither of the two would be where they are without Peyton Manning standing behind center, which takes us to this week?s head coaching matchup.

Caldwell has been in this situation before, since he departed Tampa Bay for Indianapolis in 2002 with Dungy. His title has been assistant head coach for years and even though he?s listed as a rookie, he?s anything but.

Saints head coach Sean Payton was the offensive coordinator for the New York Giants in 2000 when the team represented the NFC in Super Bowl XXXV. The Giants only mustered up 152 offensive yards en route to a 34-7 against the Baltimore Ravens. Since Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006, he?s led the club to a 3-1 postseason record.

As far as X?s and O?s go, the Caldwell and Payton matchup could be deemed a push.

Tossing that pair aside, the main coaching matchup is the Colts? offensive coordinator Tom Moore versus the Saints? defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Better yet, we should probably include Manning in the same sentence with Moore since he?s the one calling the plays at the line of scrimmage.

The pair have begin together since Manning joined the Colts and their production on the field will most likely go down as the best ever. Moore and Manning coach together, discussing each series before it starts plus he allows Peyton to change the plays, which is done more than 50 percent of the time. It?s been said that Moore calls in three plays, two pass and one run, then Manning does the rest.

Trying to counter the MM duo will be Williams, who took over a unit in New Orleans that gave up 24.6 points per game and 339 yards per game in 2008. Under Williams, the yardage jumped to 357 YPG but the points dropped to 21.3. Williams uses an aggressive nature and that?s where he?s been successful. The number of turnovers have doubled from 23 to 46 and they pushed their sack total from 28 to 36.

Williams caught a little heat last week because some folks believe he?s telling his defensive players to try to hurt Manning. Asked if he was concerned about being penalized for roughing Manning, Williams said, "If it happens, it happens. The only thing that you'd like for me to say is that if it happens, you hope that he doesn't get back up and play again."

The N.Y. Jets tried to blitz Manning and it worked early but faltered late. Not many people have been able to outsmart Moore this year and we don?t believe Williams can do so on two weeks notice either.

Edge: Indianapolis

 

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Betting on Intangibles

Betting on Intangibles

Betting on Intangibles


It?s often been said that two things you can?t handicap in football are turnovers and penalties. They happen often and usually help or hurt one team or another during the course of a game. How a club responds or reacts could be the difference of victory or defeat. This pair of terms and other factors that are impossible to measure are called intangibles. While they may or may not hurt your wager in Super Bowl XLIV, let?s take a closer look at some that could sway your decision.
Turnovers

?The team that wins the turnover battle is more than likely going to win the game.? We know it?s a clich? that?s often used in pro football but you can never argue against it. Out of the 32 NFL teams, 17 had a turnover margin of plus-one or higher during the regular season while 16 were minus-one or less. Cincinnati finished at a stalemate and it was one of 12 teams to reach the playoffs. Ten of the other 11 teams had positive numbers, while Arizona surprisingly made the postseason with a minus-7 mark.

New Orleans finished the season with a plus-11 (40-29) rating and it improved on that number in the playoffs with a plus-six performance. The Saints notched 29 interceptions on the year, which was one behind league-leading Green Bay (30). Of the 46 forced turnovers, New Orleans was able to score eight defensive touchdowns, which was easily the best mark in the league. Indianapolis wasn?t spectacular in this category but it still managed to post a ranking of plus-five (31-26) in its 18 encounters.

Here are a couple props listed at Sportsbook.com that focus directly on turnovers.

Total Interceptions Thrown by Both Teams:
Over 2.5 (+170) Under 2.5 (-220)

Total Fumbles Lost by Both Teams:
Over 1.5 (+115) Under 1.5 (-145)

Will there be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown?
Yes +145 No -185

First Turnover of the Game will be what?
Interception -170 Fumble +135

Penalties

Does anybody recall the safety in Super Bowl XLIII? Considering no defensive player was given the credit for the two points, it?s easy to forget. With Pittsburgh leading Arizona 20-14, the Steelers offensive lineman Justin Hartwig was called for a holding penalty in the endzone, which gave Arizona two points and a big spark as well. It?s hard to tell if one particular flag will make a big impact this Sunday but here are some numbers to digest for both clubs.

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense were only called for 74 penalties in the regular season, which was the second-best mark. And the attack was just flagged five times in their two playoffs games as well. New Orleans was a tad more careless in the regular season, getting called for 89 offensive penalties. Unfortunately, the trend got worse in the Saints? two playoffs battles as the team was penalized 15 times. Defensively, Indianapolis (92, 889 yards) and New Orleans (82, 717) were both in the same ballpark.

The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have taken the above numbers into serious consideration, just based on the below prop.

Team with the Most Penalty Yards:
Saints -200 Colts +160

Competition and Adversity

It?s been a while and it doesn?t happen often, but the Super Bowl has the top two seeds squaring off in the finale. Indianapolis and New Orleans didn?t meet in the regular season yet the pair definitely earned their way South Florida.





The Colts played in arguably the toughest division in football, when you?re looking at wins and losses. And Indianapolis matched up against the AFC East, arguably one of the better groups too. For games against the NFC West is nothing to brag about, but a road win at Arizona (31-10) says a lot. The NFC South wasn?t the best division in the NFL but the Saints did play against the NFC East (3-1) and the AFC East (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) this season.

The Saints and Colts have both faced their fair share of adversity over the season and both responded as well. New Orleans showed a lot of poise in comeback victories against the Dolphins, Panthers and Redskins, plus the 31-28 overtime win against Minnesota in the NFC Championship was solid as well. Indianapolis has been in five meaningful games this year where it trailed or was tied at halftime. All five times the Colts came back to win, which included their AFC title game win over the N.Y. Jets.

Experience

As you know already, the Colts made a trip to Super Bowl XLI and wound up defeating Chicago 29-21 in the finale. A large group of that team will be making a return trip and that should help an already experienced group. Playing in the same venue is an added bonus for Indy, who will be going through the same routine, practice facility and hotel arrangements.

For New Orleans, it?s a completely different story. Not only is the franchise making its first trip to the Super Bowl, the squad only has a handful of players that have played in the big game. Two of them are in the secondary, Darren Sharper and Randall Gay, and Sharper?s spotlight came more than 10 years ago during his tenure with Green Bay. The other players are a pair of fullbacks in Kyle Eckel and Heath Evans, who is on the IR.

Even though Jim Caldwell is in his first year as head coach of the Colts, he?s been with Indianapolis since 2002 and his title was the assistant head coach during that span. The Saints? Sean Payton is no stranger to the big game either. He was the offensive coordinator with the N.Y. Giants in 2000 when they represented the NFC in Super Bowl XXXV.

Final Thoughts

The one adjective that best suits Indianapolis is consistent. You can also say that the Colts are the most methodical, prepared, disciplined and predictable too, which is a good thing. Some folks were upset that Indianapolis pulled up and decided to rest its players the last couple weeks and gave up on an opportunity of going 16-0. What people need to realize is that the franchise has a plan and it?s worked perfectly so far.

Edge: Indianapolis

 

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Books get ready for SBXLIV

Books get ready for SBXLIV

Books get ready for SBXLIV

Super Bowl XLIV betting has been steady at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks with ticket counts showing up at a little higher than 5 to 2 in favor of the Colts. Just about every sportsbook in town has the Colts as 5.5-point favorites with a few variations on the total from 56 to 57.

We haven?t seen anything yet though. Over 95% of all wagers on the game will be made Saturday and Sunday of this week and that will be where the telling sign is to where this game will go. So far on a small sample ratio, the Colts appear to be that team.

And why not? They have been the most consistent team all season seemingly unfazed where they play, what surface the game is on, and don?t even blink if they find themselves in a deficit.




The Saints on the hand have many in the general public asking themselves if they are in the Super Bowl merely because of the home field advantage they had in the Superdome for the NFC title game where they looked to have been outplayed.

Had this game been in early November, the Saints would likely be the team with a 5 to 2 ticket count ratio. They were peaking at that juncture and looked to be unstoppable but then came the stretch run and they ran out of gas in the final furlong losing three straight as the playoffs began.

Fortunately for the Saints, they do have a little recent history on their side. Remember the dreadful 80?s and early 90?s Super Bowls that saw blowouts every year with NFC teams dominating?

Ever since Denver knocked off the Packers as an 11-point underdog, the Super Bowls have been pretty entertaining for the most part.

Just in the last two years alone we?ve seen the underdog side cover with the Cardinals almost winning and the Giants beating the undefeated Patriots. However, the underdog winning is still pretty scarce.

Since that Denver win, where many had the money line giving the Sportsbooks one of their lowest Super Bowl wins ever, the public has been chasing for that upset win. They hit big time with the Giants two years ago, and back to back with the Buccaneers in 2003 and Patriots in 2002, but that?s it. Despite those four wins, the favorites have still won eight of the last 12 finales.

Props offer Great Value

Whenever a Sportsbook extends itself with over 200 betting options that they have to monitor and baby sit while keeping the limits in the College Basketball range, it?s a good sign that the books aren?t as confident as they would like to be. Because of so many different numbers and opinions regarding the same props around town, bettors can even find themselves a nice middle on some of the player stat based props. It?s worth putting on some comfortable shoes and taking a walk down the strip visiting a few of the books like they did in the old days.

History of the Prop

The one that got the most attention was William ?Refrigerator? Perry for the 1986 Super Bowl between the Bears and Patriots. Caesar?s Palace gave odds on Perry to score a touchdown. They opened it at 20 to 1 and closed it at 2 to 1. It found lots of takers and late in the third quarter of the blowout, Perry and Mike Ditka made them all winners.

?There was a lot of buzz around town for that prop with many around the city offering it,? said Lucky?s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, ?but it wasn?t until the reports came in from everywhere how much the books lost on the prop with stories published nationally by the wire services that made it so big.?

Bears fans to this day still hold somewhat of a grudge against Ditka for having Perry score instead of future hall of Famer Walter Payton, and so do the books who lost on the prop. Since then, everyone has taken it to another level mixing in all other types of sports stats to go against the anything that happens in the Super Bowl.

More Updates

I'll have updates Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with latest happenings in Las Vegas regarding the game as it nears. I'll also have my final prediction which I'm still waffling on a side at the moment, as are several bettors across the world.

 

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Drew Brees vs. Colts' Secondary

Drew Brees vs. Colts' Secondary

Drew Brees vs. Colts' Secondary


As we continue to break down Super Bowl XLIV let?s take a look at one of the most important matchups of Sunday?s game. I?m talking about New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees vs. the Indianapolis secondary.

**Drew Brees**

We begin this conversation with Brees, who signed with the Saints as a free agent in 2006. The Purdue product was coming off a career-threatening shoulder injury that required the surgical skills of Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham. When you?re set to enter the free-agent market, you don?t want to have visited Dr. Andrews anytime recently.

Brees had just two suitors ? Miami and New Orleans. But the Dolphins and Nick Saban were more bullish on Daunte Culpepper, whereas new head coach Sean Payton made Brees and his family feel wanted. Therefore, he accepted a six-year, $60 million deal to join the Saints, who also added explosive USC running back Reggie Bush to the mix with the No. 2 selection in the draft.


The results have been magical. For the first time in franchise history, New Orleans advanced to the NFC Championship Game in 2006 before losing at Chicago. In 2007 and 2008, the Saints were in the hunt for a playoff berth, only to come up just short both seasons.

But 2009 has been different. The Saints won their first 13 games and then beat Arizona and Minnesota at the Superdome in the playoffs.

After the horror of Hurricane Katrina, Brees has New Orleans in its first Super Bowl. At this time four years ago, the futures of both Brees and the city were in peril.

The veteran signal caller threw for 4,388 yards in 15 regular-season games, producing a 34/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the playoffs, Brees has six TD passes and no interceptions. In his last eight games, he has a remarkable 22/2 TD-INT ratio.

He distributes the wealth without bias, as evidenced by seven Saints with 35 receptions or more. Like the quarterback for the Colts, Brees gets through his progressions as well as any signal caller in the league. Opposing defenses never know when he?s going to look downfield for WRs Marques Colston or Devery Henderson, hit tight end Jeremy Shockey over the middle or check down to the dangerous Reggie Bush.

Payton and Brees are like Dan Fouts and Don ?Air? Corryel. They are simply the perfect match. During four seasons together, they?ve produced 122 TD passes in 63 regular-season contests.

**Colts? Secondary**

This unit has had to make do without its leader this year. All-Pro safety Bob Sanders played in just two regular-season games before going on injured reserve. This forced third-year man Melvin Bullitt into the starting lineup.

Bullitt teams with Antoine Bethea at the safety positions. Bethea covers a lot of range and has 95 tackles this year. He also has four interceptions, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

Kelvin Hayden is Indy?s best cover corner. He has just one interception, but Hayden missed a lot of time with injuries this season. However, he?s healthy now and it will be critical for Hayden not to get burnt deep.

Jerraud Powers has enjoyed an outstanding rookie campaign at CB for the Colts. But he missed the AFC Championship Game with a foot injury and is ?questionable? this week. With Marlin Jackson on IR, this leaves Tim Jennings and Jacob Lacey in crucial roles.

Lacey has three interceptions this year, returning one for a touchdown. The rookie from out of Oklahoma St. has 13 passes defended. Jennings, a University of Georgia product in his fourth NFL season, has a pair of picks and 57 tackles.

If Powers can?t play and Indy?s best pass rusher Dwight Freeney (questionable, ankle) isn?t on the field or isn?t at full speed, the Colts? secondary will be under even more pressure to perform against New Orleans? vaunted aerial attack.



--This is the highest total (56-57 range as of Monday) in Super Bowl history. The highest previous total was 54 ? two season ago in the Giants? upset win over New England. In 1995, the San Diego-San Francisco total was 54.

--Colston is Brees? favorite target. The Hofstra product, who was drafted 2006 and made a huge impact immediately, has 70 receptions for 1,074 yards and nine TDs. Colston has a 15.3 yard-per-catch average.

--New Orleans tight end Jeremy Shockey is ?probable? with a knee injury that?s slowed him in recent weeks. Shockey had three receptions for 36 yards and one TD in the win over the Cardinals in the NFC semifinals. Shockey, who played his college ball at Miami, is returning home after just one catch for nine yards against the Vikings.

 

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Saints' RBs vs. Colts' LBs

Saints' RBs vs. Colts' LBs

Saints' RBs vs. Colts' LBs

When breaking down the Saints/Colts matchup in Super Bowl XLIV, the running game for each team doesn't get much attention. Instead, it's all about the two Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Drew Brees and the dynamic passing games. The one thing New Orleans has been successful at this season is balancing its offense, giving opposing defenses something to think about when trying to slow down the Saints.

Saints' running game

The Saints ranked sixth in the league in rushing offense this season (131.6 yards/game), despite not having a running back compile at least 800 yards on the ground. New Orleans was also near the top of the league in rushing touchdowns with 21, which was tied for second-most.

Three Saints' rushers scored at least five touchdowns on the ground, led by Pierre Thomas and his six rushing scores. Thomas also paced the rushing attack with 793 yards and 5.4 yards per carry clip. Former Bronco Mike Bell began the season getting a bulk of the carries, but his production dropped considerably towards the end of the year, not rushing for over 30 yards in any of his last four games (Bell had no carries in NFC Title game).

Let's not forget about the third member of this Saints' rushing trio, former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush. The second pick of the 2006 Draft never materialized into a top rushing threat in the league, but Bush made impacts catching passes out of the backfield as well as returning punts. The former USC star never broke out for big rushing performances, compiling at least 65 yards rushing only twice this season.

Breaking down New Orleans' competition as it relates to its ground game, there weren't many surprising revelations. Twice the Saints faced top-four rushing defenses and were limited, with both those games at home. Dallas (ranked #4) held New Orleans to a season-low 65 yards in the Week 15 loss, while Minnesota (ranked #2) gave up just 68 rushing yards in the NFC Title Game.

Indianapolis ranked 24th in the regular season in rushing defense, and when New Orleans faces teams in that class, the Saints had plenty of success. When taking on defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the league in defending the run (17th or worse), New Orleans averaged 154.7 yards/game on the ground (9 games).

The Las Vegas Hilton has released hundreds of props for Super Bowl XLIV, and there are numerous ways to make money on the Saints' rushing game.

Starting with Thomas, the number for rushing yards in the game is set at 52 ?, laying the standard -110 if you want to wager on the 'over' or 'under' (Bet $110 to win $100). Over the last 12 games, Thomas has rushed for 53 yards or more just five times, but managed 61 yards in last week's NFC Championship victory over the Vikings. Thomas is tied into eight individual props, including receiving yards (26 ?), longest reception (12 ?), and longest rush (11 ? yards). Those three props are all bet $110 to win $100.


Bush has his name all over the prop sheet, with individual and cross-sport props. The rushing yards are set at 22 ? for the ex-Trojan, laying $110 either way to win $100. This actually isn't a bad one to take a shot at the 'over,' despite Bush getting held to eight yards on seven carries against Minnesota. Bush has rushed for at least 23 yards in four of the last six games, and with Bell losing carries, Bush can definitely break a run and cash the ticket in one shot.

Some other Bush props include longest rush (8 ? yards), longest reception (12 ? yards), receiving yards (28 ?), and rushing attempts (4 ?), all bet $110 to win $100. Bush will face off against two Los Angeles Lakers in cross-sport props, as the Lakers play Portland on Saturday, February 6. In an interesting prop, you can bet whether Bush will have more receiving yards than Kobe Bryant points against the Blazers (Lay $110 to win $100). Also, in the touted "Kardashian prop," you can wager on who will total more, Bush and his rushing yards or Lamar Odom combined points, rebounds, and assists against Portland.

Colts' Linebackers

As mentioned earlier, Indianapolis' rushing defense was not the strongest part of the AFC Champion's arsenal, yielding 126.5 yards/game. The Colts allowed over 120 yards on the ground in seven games this season, but also limited opponents to 90 yards or less five times. The extremes definitely skewed the average, allowing 239 yards to the Dolphins in Week 2 and 248 yards to the Bills in the season finale. However, one week after Miami ran all over Indy's rush "D," the Colts limited the Cardinals to just 49 yards on the ground.

The Colts faced two rushing-intensive offenses in the playoffs and passed both tests. In the Divisional Round against Baltimore, the Colts held the Ravens to 87 yards. That shutdown by the Indianapolis defense was super-impressive, compared to Baltimore rushing for 234 yards in the Wild Card romping of New England.

The AFC Title game proved to be another solid showing for the Colts' rushing defense, allowing 86 yards to the Jets, who ranked first in the league in running the ball. The 86 yards was in stark contrast to the Week 16 effort by New York, when it ran for 202 yards, handing Indianapolis its first loss of the season.

The Colts played seven games against teams ranked in the top five of the league in rushing. Indianapolis allowed an average of 134.8 yards/game in those contests, but to be fair, the Colts yielded 100 yards or less in four of those games.

Indianapolis' linebackers are led by MLB Gary Brackett, who racked up 99 tackles this season. Strong-side linebacker Clint Session accumulated a team-high 103 tackles to go along with two interceptions, while weak-side linebacker Phillip Wheeler picked up 61 tackles.

Both Brackett and Session are involved with tackle props for the game, according to the Hilton. Each are listed with a total of 6 ? tackles, but the odds change for each player. In Session's case, the standard -110 'juice' applies, while if you believe Brackett will compile at least seven tackles, you need to lay $145 to win $100. On the flip side, if Brackett picks up six or less tackles and you bet the 'under,' you receive a return of $125 on a $100 bet. In this prop, sacks do not count, only solo and assisted tackles.

Which team has the edge?

Indianapolis' linebackers are led by several strong veterans, but the ability to limit the opposition's run has been inconsistent all season. The Saints may not have that Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson-type back, but New Orleans has found a way to mix in a solid running game with its already automatic passing game.

Edge: Saints

 

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Props for Fun and Profit

Props for Fun and Profit

Props for Fun and Profit


We?ve created all sorts of Super Bowl XLIV props for bettors to play this Sunday at Bodog. I have to say, props are one of the best things about the big game and I love being a part of the team that makes them up and assigns their odds.

My first bit of advice for bettors when it comes to props is, try to chart out how you think the game will go. First of all, which team do you think is going to win? Why? Because of a certain weakness or strength? How? In a shootout, or will points be at a premium? You?d be surprised how much easier your betting decisions become once you choose how the contest will play out. The only thing you have to do is be right!


You can also look to past history for help. For example, do you think Peyton Manning will have his way against the Saints? defense? If so, you might consider taking the under in the total sacks for New Orleans prop. The total?s a mere 1, but Manning went sack-free in 10 regular-season games. His protection is famously good, as is his knowledge of when to throw the ball away. Then again, maybe the Saints learned something about beating Indy?s pass protection from the Ravens and Jets, both of which sacked Manning twice despite losing their games.

One of our most popular prop bets is for Super Bowl MVP. At the moment, Manning is the 2/3 favorite to win the award. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is at 9/4, which is appropriate because the Colts are expected to win. If you think otherwise, Brees offers pretty good odds.

Another Saints player who?s getting some MVP action is a little less obvious. That would be safety Darren Sharper, who picked off nine passes during the regular season and could well be the answer to stopping Manning. Sharper?s getting 28/1 odds to win the MVP. Of note, Tampa Bay safety Dexter Jackson, with two interceptions in Super Bowl XXXVII, was the last defensive MVP.

I would be remiss to not mention another one of our most popular Super Bowl prop bets: Who will win the coin toss? I?m afraid I can?t offer any advice on this one. It might not make the most sense to bet on this prop considering you?re paying $105 to win $100 in an even-odds wager, but that?s the price of fun I suppose. Also, showing off to your friends if you win.

 

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THE INFLUENCE GAME: NFL players prepare defense

THE INFLUENCE GAME: NFL players prepare defense

THE INFLUENCE GAME: NFL players prepare defense
February 3, 2010


EDITOR'S NOTE - An occasional look at how behind-the-scenes influence is exercised in Washington.

WASHINGTON (AP) - A year without a Super Bowl? It may be unthinkable to football fans, but that's one worry behind a new lobbying push by NFL players.

The NFL Players Association is bracing for a showdown with team owners that could lead to a work stoppage when the current collective bargaining deal expires. Hoping to enlist powerful allies, the players' group is ratcheting up its lobbying on Capitol Hill under new executive director DeMaurice Smith.

The players union spent $220,000 on lobbying in the second half of last year, more than double what it had spent in all of the previous year. Last May, soon after taking over at the union, Smith switched lobbyists, hiring Patton Boggs, the powerhouse Washington firm where he had been a partner.

Since then, he's organized a couple of player lobby days, featuring dozens of current and former players who bring their star power to meetings with lawmakers and congressional staffers. Those making the rounds have included Washington Redskins wide receiver Antwaan Randle El and Kevin Mawae, a Pro-Bowl Tennessee Titans center and president of the players' union.

The union has said it fears the owners will impose a lockout after next season's Super Bowl, and it has been building relationships on Capitol Hill in hopes of getting Congress' help in keeping the games going. The league counters that a new collective bargaining agreement will get done, but owners also contend the existing agreement, which calls for players to receive about 60 percent of revenues, is too favorable for players.

``I believe that our players have a role in making this game better for our fans, and being business partners with the NFL to grow the game,'' Smith said in an interview. ``At the same time, we want to make sure that partnership doesn't become one-sided. Every major union in the country has a presence on the Hill.''

Smith said that the increased lobbying was in part a reaction to the NFL's own expanded Washington presence. In 2008, the league hired an in-house lobbyist, former Capitol Hill staffer Jeff Miller, and established a political action committee to raise campaign money. Last year, the NFL's ``Gridiron PAC'' made about $250,000 in political donations. The union doesn't have a PAC.

Even with the union's increased lobbying, the NFL continues to vastly outspend it. In the last six months of 2009, the NFL reported $610,000 in lobbying expenses, nearly triple the union's total.

Smith said another factor in the union's increased lobbying expenditures was the recent Supreme Court case in which the NFL argued it should be considered one business - not 32 separate teams - when it comes to selling NFL-branded items. The players are worried that a broad ruling from the court, which heard arguments in the antitrust case last month, could go well beyond merchandise.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, a union executive committee member who will start in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts, recently warned that a favorable decision for the NFL would enable owners to end or restrict free agency. The league insists the case is only about licensing of intellectual property and has nothing to do with labor.

Smith brings Washington connections to the job. In addition to being a partner at Patton Boggs, he served on the Obama transition team and previously worked for Eric Holder, now the nation's attorney general.

``We recognize that Congress has a legitimate role in a myriad of issues that affect our players, their families, and our fans, beyond just the labor issues,'' Smith said. In particular, Smith said that he decided to take an aggressive position on head injuries and their lasting effects on players.

``That was an issue that I felt that not only had the NFL not done enough in the past, but we as a union had not done enough in the past,'' said Smith, who testified at two congressional hearings on the subject over the past few months.

Congress has leverage over the league in several areas, including an antitrust exemption for broadcasting contracts. That exemption, which allows the NFL to sign TV contracts on behalf of all teams, helped to transform the league into the economic powerhouse it is today.

``It's a question of Congress exercising oversight authority that it has, and to ask the right questions given the gifts they give to the National Football League,'' Smith said. ``Our players made the point of saying, the antitrust exemption that the league gets in Congress is a gift. We do think that Congress should be assured that that gift is being used in a way that benefits our fans, our players and the owners.''

NFL vice president Joe Browne said in an e-mail that most lawmakers realize that the league has used the exemption to keep games on broadcast TV.

``That benefits NFL fans, players and the clubs,'' he said. ``The players actually benefit the most monetarily since they receive 60 percent of the TV revenue through the labor agreement.''

Smith said that he hired his old firm because ``they're the best. And one of the reasons I know they're the best is I know that the NFL has looked at them as well.''

Browne confirmed that the league interviewed Jonathan Yarowsky, a Patton Boggs partner, for outside lobbying work last year. Yarowsky is one of the Patton Boggs lobbyists now working for the union.

---

On the Web:

NFLPA: http://www.nflplayers.com

NFL: http://www.nfl.com/

 

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Rejection a motivator for some players

Rejection a motivator for some players

Rejection a motivator for some players
February 3, 2010


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) - The overlooked, the underrated and the outright rejected have somehow landed in this Super Bowl - some with starring roles, too.



The New Orleans Saints wouldn't be competitive, let alone NFC champions and in their first Super Bowl, without a number of players who fit those categories. The list starts with quarterback Drew Brees and includes Darren Sharper, Jonathan Vilma, Jeremy Shockey, Pierre Thomas and Marques Colston.

Same for the Colts. Indianapolis defensive starters Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt weren't drafted. Neither was Jeff Saturday, the three-time All-Pro who snaps the ball to Peyton Manning. Two other starters, guard Ryan Lilja and defensive tackle Dan Muir, were picked up on waivers. DE Raheem Brock was selected in the seventh round by the Eagles in 2002, cut and signed by Indy. Pierre Garcon, the rapidly developing wide receiver, was a sixth-round draft pick.

``You've got to take advantage of your opportunities. Nothing's given to you. You've got to take it and don't let it go,'' said Antoine Bethea, the Colts' starting free safety and a sixth-round pick in 2006. ``Myself, Melvin Bullitt, Jacob Lacey, Jerraud Powers - I think we've all done that. And that's just the secondary, not even mentioning the guys on the front end. So whatever it is, whatever you need to do, you can't relinquish the opportunity that you're given.''

Brees was all but dumped by San Diego, then shunned by the Dolphins in 2006. Sharper, set adrift by Minnesota last year, signed a one-year deal at the veteran's minimum with New Orleans. Vilma and Shockey were unwanted in New York despite some Pro Bowl seasons. Thomas wasn't drafted at all, while Colston was - 252nd overall, in the final moments of the last round in '06.

``Here we are trying to come back and find ourselves,'' said Brees, who lost his starting job with the Chargers to Philip Rivers in great part because he injured his right shoulder in the 2005 season finale - his last game before entering free agency. Miami showed interest in him, then backed off on medical advice. The Saints had no such reservations.

``Sean Payton gets hired. I get brought in as a free agent with Scott Fujita,'' Brees said. ``Reggie Bush and Marques Colston get drafted. We bring in guys like Mark Simoneau and Scott Shanle. The list goes on of the guys we brought in that year as free agents.

``In a way, all of us were castaways, guys who were obviously free agents because there were plenty of teams out there that didn't want us. Yet, the New Orleans Saints wanted us and they wanted to give us an opportunity. We all used that as a rallying point to come together and accomplish something special and we did.''

It's not all superstars and super stats in this Super Bowl.

The Saints' top two rushers, Thomas and Mike Bell, went undrafted. The Colts' top receiver in these playoffs, Garcon, was taken with the 205th overall pick.

``You've got to give credit to (Payton) for keeping an undrafted guy over a fourth-round pick,'' linebacker Shanle said, referring to how the Saints stayed with Thomas over Antonio Pittman. ``Even though he was better, a lot of teams don't do that.''

These teams do. They also will trade for players who have worn out their welcome or don't fit elsewhere. Shockey and Vilma are examples.

Shockey caught 371 passes and lots of flak with the Giants for his individualism, willingness to speak out, and penchant for committing penalties. When the Giants discovered in 2007 they could win with Kevin Boss after Shockey broke his leg - sidelining him for the playoff run and Super Bowl upset of New England - they shopped the moody (some say disruptive) tight end.

Payton was buying, offering a second- and fifth-round selection.

``He's a guy that last night was floating around the meeting rooms and half the team is out for dinner,'' Payton said, referring to Shockey. ``He's looking at tape and getting ice. So I think a little bit of that is mythical. It's fun to write about.''

Vilma was the 2004 defensive rookie of the year. When the Jets switched coaches in 2006 from Herm Edwards to Eric Mangini, they also installed a 3-4 defense, which limited Vilma, whose strength is his pursuit from sideline to sideline.

It was clear from early in his tenure in New York that Mangini wanted a different kind of middle linebacker, and Vilma became available in 2008 after missing nine games with a knee injury.

Again, Payton was buying, offering a fourth-rounder and a conditional pick. Mangini, perhaps believing Vilma was damaged goods, was so eager to send the player elsewhere that he accepted the trade.

``It's funny, we had similar situations,'' Vilma said, referring to Shockey, who was his teammate at the University of Miami. ``He got hurt, I got hurt. He got traded, I got traded, and we've just been making the most of it since.''

 

[Lumi]

Sharp money avoids Saints

Sharp money avoids Saints

Sharp money avoids Saints
As far as coach-quarterback combinations go, only a couple in the NFL inspire belief in bettors more than Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Who imagined the New Orleans Saints would be considered cutting edge and hip?

Payton recruited Brees as a free agent in 2006, and they created a high-powered offense the Saints are riding to the Super Bowl. Along the way, they embarrassed New England's Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

But next up is Peyton Manning, the league's best quarterback. If the Indianapolis Colts were coached by a beer vendor, they would have a great coach-quarterback combination. Manning alone is that good.

So if you've been watching ESPN, reading the newspaper, listening to talk radio and soaking in the overkill of Super Bowl analysis, you're aware that most experts prefer the Colts as 5-point favorites and Sunday's game should be Manning's showcase.

Manning is making many bettors cynical about the Saints.

Even the sharpest professionals, including Las Vegas' Billy Walters and Steve Fezzik, are lining up on Indianapolis. Fezzik said he plans to bet the Colts straight up on the money line, at a price of about minus-200, and sources say Walters has done the same in a big way.

One story circulating among gambling insiders is that Walters collaborated in some way with poker pro Phil Ivey to place a $2 million money-line bet on Indianapolis at a Strip sports book.

MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood did not get into specifics but said, "We took a seven-figure bet on the Colts money line."

Sources also report Adam Meyer, a sports gambler from South Florida, has been approved for a $1 million bet at M Resort. Meyer did not confirm the amount.

"I'm going to be making a substantial wager," Meyer said. "I've only done one-third of the amount so far on the Colts on the money line."

Be aware that many of the Colts money-line bettors are playing it both ways by maneuvering to also take the Saints and the points.

Ken White, a veteran oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said he made the line minus-61/2 and the total 61, so he sees small edges to Indianapolis and over the total, which is now about 57.

White just spent a week in Miami, and he said league insiders talked about how the Saints were a bundle of nerves in their 31-28 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Brees appeared overly cautious with some throws, and his offense went three-and-out seven times.

"If the Saints were nervous in that spotlight," White said, "what's going to happen to them this Sunday?"

White said he leans to the Colts because of "experience." But he's also concerned about the right ankle injury to defensive end Dwight Freeney, a bulldozer as a pass rusher.

"Freeney is an important part of that team," White said. "If he comes back and they say he's going to play 85 percent of the plays, I feel the line will go back up to 6. But without Freeney, I'm making it 41/2."

The 6-foot Brees can stand toe to toe with the 6-foot-5-inch Manning in a passing numbers game.

Brees posted an NFL-high rating of 109.6 in the regular season, compared with Manning's 99.9 rating. Brees had 34 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, compared with Manning's 33 and 16. Since the 2006 season, Brees and Manning each have 122 touchdown passes. In his past eight games, including the playoffs, Brees has passed for 21 touchdowns with two interceptions.

The critics are picking on the weaknesses of the New Orleans defense, and Manning surely will, too. But it's not a no-win situation for the Saints. A no-win dilemma is a height contest between Tom Cruise, Al Pacino and Ryan Seacrest.

Knocking off Manning is a tall order -- and I have the Colts winning, too -- but Brees and Payton give the Saints a shot.

Despite the crush of Colts bettors swarming Las Vegas books, White said, "There's going to be a lot of Saints money, as well."

There are hundreds of ways to bet the Super Bowl, including propositions. Two weeks ago, "in-progress" wagering was a hit at books such as the Las Vegas Hilton, M Resort and Lucky's. At each commercial break, the point spread for the game is adjusted and posted for continual wagering.

"It's the wave of the future," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's books, based at the Plaza downtown. "People just like to keep betting."

And many of them will be betting big on Manning.

 

[Lumi]

Props heating up Las Vegas

Props heating up Las Vegas

Props heating up Las Vegas

This years Nevada Super Bowl betting handle will likely not pass $94.5 million and may be in danger of even equaling last seasons Steelers-Cardinals match-up which brought in $84.5 million through state sports book.
?We know it?s going to get pretty busy Saturday and Sunday,? said South Point?s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne, ?but right now (through 10 days up on the board) it?s been pretty quiet.?

Reports from many of the Sportsbooks have been similar, but most admit that they don?t keep a daily log of betting on the game throughout the two week period. They just know the bulk of their action will come on game day and the day prior.



?There could be something into the fact that there isn?t a big underdog like most years which really seems to stir up betting interest early with the people who feel they have to get it now or they?ll lose value,? says South Point?s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne.

The all-time record betting handle for the Nevada Super Bowl handle came in 2006 with the Steelers and Seahawks squared off with the Steelers a 4-point favorite. However, that year was right in the middle of the Las Vegas Boom where everyone was making tons of cash in all aspects of whatever business they were in.

If you worked in the casino, the tips were larger. If you were an executive, the bonus? were larger. If in construction, there was tons of work because everyone was building. Real estate? The sales were through the roof. Regular folks were making hundreds of thousands of dollars by just flipping houses.

It was too easy in Las Vegas. All that money being made spilled over into all facets of the economy where people were buying new toys, clothes, and free spending with no regards to losing while gambling.

When the decline came, the sports books were hit as well.

?We?ve seen a loss over the last two years with that intermediate player. We still have the Sharp players and we still have the regular guy who bets $20 to $100 per day, but we?ve seen a decline in the regular guy with the larger bank roll who plays $500 to $1,000 per game,? says Osborne.

Nevada sportsbooks overall numbers haven?t seen the dramatic declines like table games and slots, in fact they?re relatively flat from 2008 to 2009, but that regular player who was playing a dime a day has changed his definition of a dime to mean closer to $10 than a thousand.

Thus far the big plays haven?t come yet. One Sharp bettor was enticed to take the Colts on the money line laying -200 when it was the cheapest in town. Right now most Vegas books are dealing -210/+175 on the game.

The M Resort and Spa has the lowest line in Vegas right now with the Colts a 4.5-point favorite while most of the books are settled at 5 or 5.5, which appears to be a good sign, but Sports Director Mike Colbert has somewhat of an opinion the game.

?I liked the game ?3? from the start and I still believe that is what the line should be,? said Colbert, ?We took some early Colts action when we opened the game and it has been steady at 4.5 every since with good two way action. Until someone pushes me off the number with a huge wager, I?m staying where I?m at.?

?I have my line screens on and I can see what everyone else in town has, but I feel comfortable in my number and feel by game time we?ll all be closer to 4.?

So far, if no one is biting with the Colts laying 4.5, he may very well be ahead of the curve.

Colbert also explained that he has seen more action on his props than the game itself.

?We have seen lots of action on the Colts stat based player props that we have matched up with Saints players. Of the 20 player vs. player props, about 15 of them have been bet on the Colts players side.?

If looking for a new Las Vegas experience in Super Bowl betting, the M Resort and Spa has something for you with their "In-game Wagering System" where you can bet the game and props throughout the game. They have 108 machines hard wired throughout their sports book and lounge and also have over 100 hand held devices you can wager with throughout the casino.

Why wait in line or get up when you don?t have to?

It?s a pretty cool feature and a technological advancement that we haven?t seen the likes of being presented or passed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board since the advent of the computerized betting system 20 years ago.

The M Resort and Spa is now taking reservations for the Super Bowl to ensure you get your device.

If looking for a cool place to hang out off the strip, try downtown and visit the Golden Nugget. All the downtown properties are having big parties with ultra-cheap drink specials, but the Golden Nugget is in a category by itself. It still holds the class and style that Steve Wynn instilled in it years ago and they have spent millions in keeping in better shape than many of the decling strip properties who still gouge you.

Go say hello to the Nugget's Tony Miller and Aaron Kessler in their swanky comfortable book and they'll take care of you. The combination of a large variety of betting options, fair mangement, luxury settings, plenty of TV's, and cheap beer make it one of my favorites in Las Vegas.

 

[Lumi]

NBA vs. Super Bowl Props

NBA vs. Super Bowl Props

NBA vs. Super Bowl Props


Super Bowl XLIV is slowly approaching as the betting windows will be busy over the next few days. Of course there's plenty more to bet on past the side and total between the Saints and Colts. There's even more when you sort through individual player props and how many field goals will be kicked in the game. The cross-sport props make things extra fun for gamblers, as two events are tied into the bet, but studying hard can make you some side cash this weekend. Let's take a look at a handful of cross-sport props involving the NBA, courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook.com.

Colts' points (-3 ?) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6
Saints' points (+1 ?) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6

We'll knock two birds out with one stone here. Bryant is beat-up right now, with several broken fingers on his shooting hand and a sprained ankle. The Lakers travel to Portland on Saturday night, as Bryant is coming off a five-point performance against the Bobcats on Wednesday. In Kobe's last 14 games, the Lakers' all-time leading scorer has tallied 30 points or less on 11 occasions.

The Colts and Saints rank near the top of the NFL in points scored, and neither defense is particularly strong. Indianapolis put up at least 27 points in 11 games, while New Orleans scored over 27 points in 13 contests.

There's never any doubt that Bryant will give all his effort, but his body is not close to 100%. With the grind of the NBA season and the Lakers pretty much in control of the West, Bryant may not be playing as many minutes, thus his scoring numbers may decrease. Also, the Lakers will be playing the second end of a back-to-back following Friday's game against Denver.

I'll 'fade' Bryant in this spot and take each of the Super Bowl teams to outscore the Lakers' star.

Saints/Colts combined points (+1 ?) vs. LeBron James/Kobe Bryant points on 2/6

Pretty much the same rationale applies for this prop, as we add the league's reigning MVP. James and the Cavs host the Knicks on Saturday night, as the King is averaging 27.5 points/game his last eight at home. LeBron usually saves his best games for the Knicks, but that's when they play at Madison Square Garden, and this contest is in Cleveland.

The Saints have played in eight games with a combined total of 59 points or more, and even though the Colts haven't been involved in as many high-scoring contests as New Orleans, that goes to Indianapolis' competition.

The Cavs will likely be favored by double-digits, as Cleveland is expected to roll New York. That may mean a cutback of minutes for James down the stretch. We're assuming if James and Bryant each equal their scoring average, it would be a combined 60 points. If the two stars finish with 50 or even 55 points, it's not asking much for New Orleans and Indianapolis to put together more points than James and Bryant.

Peyton Manning's longest completion (-8 ?) vs. Kevin Durant points vs. GS on 2/6

The beauty of this prop is you have the entire game to cash if you lay the number with Manning. From the opening kickoff until the final whistle, Manning can connect on a pass of any yardage. On the flip side with Durant, the Thunder star won't likely score 50 or 60 points, even if Oklahoma City went overtime with Golden State.

To be safe, let's assume Durant puts up 40 points (he has done so four times this season). Manning would need at least a 49-yard completion in this scenario to cash this prop. The Saints have allowed seven passing plays of at least 49 yards this season, including four that went over 60 yards.



Manning connected with his receivers on twelve plays of at least 35 yards this season, and six plays of at least 48 yards. In Indianapolis' Super Bowl XLII victory over Chicago, Manning and Reggie Wayne hooked up for a 53-yard touchdown strike.

Durant lit up the Warriors last Sunday night for a season-high 45 points, but is averaging 28 ppg in four career games at Oracle Arena in Oakland. The 40-point threshold is almost worst-case scenario, as Durant is likely going to finish in the low-30 range against Golden State.

Facing a defense that has allowed plenty of big plays with the game's best quarterback at the helm makes the play on Manning very enticing.

Kings/Raptors first quarter points (+3 ?) vs. Pierre Garcon receiving yards

Sacramento and Toronto play one of the two Sunday games in the NBA prior to the Super Bowl, as the Raptors and Kings tip off at 12:30 PM EST. This will be the first of three road games for Sacramento, so the early tip may be a factor for a sluggish start.

Both these teams have averaged at least 50 points in the first quarter in their respective home/away roles. Toronto has averaged 51.4 ppg in the first quarter of the last 13 home games, while Sacramento is averaging 50 ppg in the opening quarter of the previous eight road contests.

In Toronto's four early tip-offs at home this season, the average points tallied in the first quarter is 48.7 ppg. Both these defenses aren't exactly stellar, allowing 105 ppg. While the entire game is irrelevant to this bet, it still shows how up-and-down these teams can go in the first quarter.

Garcon is coming off a record-breaking 11 catches in the AFC Championship victory over the Jets, while racking up 151 yards. However, Garcon has only nine games over 50 yards this season. That's important since it's likely the Kings and Raptors will combine for between 50 and 55 points in the first quarter on Sunday. Garcon has the ability to make big plays, but he is also one of four major threats (Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie) that Manning has at his disposal.

I'll take the Kings and Raptors to tally the points in the first quarter, while outdoing Garcon's receiving yardage.

Chris Bosh free throws made (- ?) vs. total touchdowns between Colts and Saints

The Raptors' star ranks sixth in the league in free throws made per game with 6.9. Bosh has been a bit inconsistent with his trips to the line recently, making seven or more free throws only three times the last 11 games. The good thing is if Bosh gets to the line, he'll likely sink the foul shots, converting nearly 79% of the time.

In the 18 games Indianapolis has played, there has been an average of 5.05 touchdowns/game combined. Only three times have the Colts and their opponent totaled eight or more touchdowns.

The Saints started the season on fire with plenty of touchdowns - offensive, defensive, and special teams. New Orleans and its opponents combined to score an average of 7.7 touchdowns the first seven games of the season. However, the last 11 games have seen a significant drop in that department, sinking to 5.8 touchdowns a contest.

Bosh's best free throw numbers come in Sunday's situation against Sacramento. The Kings are struggling mightily as they sit well below .500. When Bosh and the Raptors face a team that is under .500, the All-Star forward averages 7.5 makes from the foul line. In eight day games, Bosh is averaging eight made free throws a game.

I'll side with Bosh on this prop to drill more free throws than combined touchdowns between Indianapolis and New Orleans.

For more cross-sport props, including college basketball, NHL, golf, and soccer, check out Sportsbook.com.