TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ILLINOIS
1-10 vs poor pass def (allow > 250 ypg)
8-47 when allow > 28 ppg
12-23 vs good teams (winn pct > 75%)
23-44 at home
4-16 as HD off SU loss
13-28-1 after SU loss
5-13 as single digit dog
1-9 vs Pac 10
2-7-1 Big 10 opener; Purdue SU winner 11-1-1
5-11 Big 10 road
8-2 road open (Wisc)
2-8 vs Mich St
Mich series visitor 10-3
1-5 at Minn; 3-7 vs Minn
4-8-1 before bye (Ind)
N?Westrn series visitor 12-4; 15-8-1 on grass
INDIANA
7-17 vs good off (avg > 425 ypg)
9-2 vs bad defence (allow > 31 ppg)
11-23 as HD
9-2 as HF 3.5 to 7 pts
9-20 as conf HD
1-12-1 after score > 30
1-9 off 1st SU win
8-18 on road (3-6 L9)
9-21 on grass
Mich St series vis 6-2
2-15 in 2nd of BB home; Mich series vis 8-2
N?Westrn series SU winner 20-0; series fave 15-3
Ohio St series vis 9-2-1; 3-7 after bye
Minn series host 8-2
1-6 vs Penn St; 2-18-3 before Purdue
0-7 road finale; Purdue series host 6-0
IOWA
12-1 vs bad defence (allow > 31 ppg)
2-11 vs good rush def (allow < 2.75 ypr)
17-7 vs conf
13-0 as DD fave
13-4 after SU loss
21-6-1 as HF; 9-1 as HF > 21.5
7-2 vs MAC
18-3-1 at home
Iowa St series fave 8-3; series vis 13-4
2-8 vs Pac 10
8-2 at Michigan
3-10 in HC game (Mich St)
1-6 after bye (Ohio St); series dog 1-7
5-1 vs Penn St
8-2 in 2nd straight conf road (Illinois)
Purd series fave 11-5; series host 7-3
10-1 vs Minn; possible over
11-1 in home finale; 8-4 host Wisc
MICHIGAN
7-14 as RF < 7 pts
13-26 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
4-9 as fave less than 5 pts
11-6 host non-conf
0-6 in road opener (N Dame); 2-12 as fave 1st away; series fave 3-15
2-5 after N Dame; 5-13 before Big 10 open
11-2 in 2nd straight home (Iowa, N?West ?)
Iowa series fave 0-6-1
Indiana series vis 8-2
1-7-1 in 1st of BB road (Illinois)
6-2-1 before Mich St (Purd)
2-6 vs N?Westrn; 3-6-1 after bye
2-7-1 at Ohio St
MICHIGAN ST
1-10 vs good def (allow <285 ypg)
17-5 off road win
17-8 as HD
4-12 vs team with win record
6-16 off ATS loss
2-8 as DD HF
3-8 as RF
4-12 as HF
6-1 vs N Dame; series SU winner 10-1
1-7 in 2nd BB home (N Dame, Minn, Wisc)
Iowa series dog 13-3; 7-3 in 2nd of BB road
3-9 after bye; Mich series SU winner 10-1
12-6 after Mich (Ohio St)
16-1 final home; 3-6 vs Wisc
Winless at Penn St since ?65; 19-4 in 2nd last game
3-11 in road finale (Hawaii)
MINNESOTA
3-13 vs good pass team (avg >250 ypg)
5-13 as dog
8-2 as RF
12-5 vs non-conf
15-10 on grass
7-13 as Big 10 host
10-1 off 1st SU loss
N?Westrn series host 0-9
3-7 in 2nd of BB Big 10 home (Penn St)
3-10 as RD; 3-8 vs Mich
1-12 after Mich (Mich St)
4-9 in 2nd of BB road (Mich St, Wisc)
3-7 home after BB conf road (Illinois, Iowa)
Indiana series vis 1-6
5-12 before Iowa (Wisc); 1-8 final road
1-10 vs Iowa
NORTHWESTERN
24-1 when allow < 14 pts
9-2 vs def allow > 250 ypg
40-24 on road
6-0 on turf (Minn, Wisc, Mich, Hawaii)
19-11 as HD
10-4-1 as dog >24
14-5 in non-conf road
10-2 as RF < 13
2-7-1 vs Pac 10
11-3 before conf open (Kansas)
21-7 on turf; Minn series vis 9-0
16-8 as conf HD
7-2 after bye; 6-1 vs Wisc
1-6-1 vs Purdue
10-0 before Mich (Penn St)
0-6 before Illinois (Mich)
Illinois series dog 9-5; 4-7 in home finale
8-2 in season finale (Hawaii)
OHIO STATE
21-10 off SU loss
17-5 vs good rush team (avg > 230 ypg)
3-8 as RF
6-14 off home win
9-1-1 as single digit HF
4-9 as fave >20
9-2 home opener (Cinc)
2-6 vs MAC; 10-17-1 after SU win
10-4 non-conf road
10-2 at Iowa
7-3 in HC game (Indiana)
5-10 vs Mich St; series vis 7-2
3-7-1 before Mich; 7-2-1 vs Purd; series fave 8-2
Mich series host 14-7-1; 4-1-1 HD vs Mich
PENN STATE
58-19 when score > 28 pts
11-22 vs good def (allow < 310 ypg)
1-30 when score < 14
5-10 season opener (Akron)
16-4 road opener (Bost Coll)
2-9 conf opener; 2-5 vs Wisc
1-6 vs Minn; 3-6 in domes; 1-6 before Purd
1-8 before bye (Purd)
1-5 vs Iowa
Ohio St series host 6-0
N?Westrn series host 6-1
possible over vs Indiana
Mich St series host 9-2; 11-2 final home
PURDUE
22-11 after 2+ SU wins
23-12 vs good run def (allow < 3.25 ypr)
10-3 off BB road (Wisc ?, Ohio St)
3-11 as RD < 7 pts
2-9 as conf RD
24-11-2 as HF
9-1 home off BB SU wins
13-6-1 as Big 10 RF
4-8 vs non-conf
4-10 before bye (Ball St)
8-14-2 conf road
N Dame series host 7-2
1-9 in 2nd of BB road (N Dame, Iowa)
7-1-1 in HC game (Wisc)
13-5-1 vs N?Westrn; series vis 10-2
1-8 in 2nd of BB Big 10 road (Iowa)
2-7-1 vs Ohio St; 4-12-2 before Indiana
Indiana series host 6-0; 6-10-1 home finale
WISCONSIN
17-8 vs good def (allow < 17 ppg)
5-14 vs good pass (avg > 250 ypg)
21-11 after being RF
9-3 as HD
5-16 as HF
1-13 as DD fave
16-2 as RD > 7
22-5 as conf dog > 6
5-13 vs non-conf; 6-7 vs MAC
1-6 in 2nd straight home
15-8 on road
9-4 conf opener (Penn St); 2-10 home off non-conf
Illinois series host 3-8; fave 7-2
8-3 vs Ohio St; 8-2 as RD
11-5 after Ohio St (Purd)
9-4 before bye (N?West); possible over
11-2 in home finale (Minn)
Mich St series fave 9-2
Iowa series fave 4-7; 1-6 after Mich St
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ILLINOIS
1-10 vs poor pass def (allow > 250 ypg)
8-47 when allow > 28 ppg
12-23 vs good teams (winn pct > 75%)
23-44 at home
4-16 as HD off SU loss
13-28-1 after SU loss
5-13 as single digit dog
1-9 vs Pac 10
2-7-1 Big 10 opener; Purdue SU winner 11-1-1
5-11 Big 10 road
8-2 road open (Wisc)
2-8 vs Mich St
Mich series visitor 10-3
1-5 at Minn; 3-7 vs Minn
4-8-1 before bye (Ind)
N?Westrn series visitor 12-4; 15-8-1 on grass
INDIANA
7-17 vs good off (avg > 425 ypg)
9-2 vs bad defence (allow > 31 ppg)
11-23 as HD
9-2 as HF 3.5 to 7 pts
9-20 as conf HD
1-12-1 after score > 30
1-9 off 1st SU win
8-18 on road (3-6 L9)
9-21 on grass
Mich St series vis 6-2
2-15 in 2nd of BB home; Mich series vis 8-2
N?Westrn series SU winner 20-0; series fave 15-3
Ohio St series vis 9-2-1; 3-7 after bye
Minn series host 8-2
1-6 vs Penn St; 2-18-3 before Purdue
0-7 road finale; Purdue series host 6-0
IOWA
12-1 vs bad defence (allow > 31 ppg)
2-11 vs good rush def (allow < 2.75 ypr)
17-7 vs conf
13-0 as DD fave
13-4 after SU loss
21-6-1 as HF; 9-1 as HF > 21.5
7-2 vs MAC
18-3-1 at home
Iowa St series fave 8-3; series vis 13-4
2-8 vs Pac 10
8-2 at Michigan
3-10 in HC game (Mich St)
1-6 after bye (Ohio St); series dog 1-7
5-1 vs Penn St
8-2 in 2nd straight conf road (Illinois)
Purd series fave 11-5; series host 7-3
10-1 vs Minn; possible over
11-1 in home finale; 8-4 host Wisc
MICHIGAN
7-14 as RF < 7 pts
13-26 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
4-9 as fave less than 5 pts
11-6 host non-conf
0-6 in road opener (N Dame); 2-12 as fave 1st away; series fave 3-15
2-5 after N Dame; 5-13 before Big 10 open
11-2 in 2nd straight home (Iowa, N?West ?)
Iowa series fave 0-6-1
Indiana series vis 8-2
1-7-1 in 1st of BB road (Illinois)
6-2-1 before Mich St (Purd)
2-6 vs N?Westrn; 3-6-1 after bye
2-7-1 at Ohio St
MICHIGAN ST
1-10 vs good def (allow <285 ypg)
17-5 off road win
17-8 as HD
4-12 vs team with win record
6-16 off ATS loss
2-8 as DD HF
3-8 as RF
4-12 as HF
6-1 vs N Dame; series SU winner 10-1
1-7 in 2nd BB home (N Dame, Minn, Wisc)
Iowa series dog 13-3; 7-3 in 2nd of BB road
3-9 after bye; Mich series SU winner 10-1
12-6 after Mich (Ohio St)
16-1 final home; 3-6 vs Wisc
Winless at Penn St since ?65; 19-4 in 2nd last game
3-11 in road finale (Hawaii)
MINNESOTA
3-13 vs good pass team (avg >250 ypg)
5-13 as dog
8-2 as RF
12-5 vs non-conf
15-10 on grass
7-13 as Big 10 host
10-1 off 1st SU loss
N?Westrn series host 0-9
3-7 in 2nd of BB Big 10 home (Penn St)
3-10 as RD; 3-8 vs Mich
1-12 after Mich (Mich St)
4-9 in 2nd of BB road (Mich St, Wisc)
3-7 home after BB conf road (Illinois, Iowa)
Indiana series vis 1-6
5-12 before Iowa (Wisc); 1-8 final road
1-10 vs Iowa
NORTHWESTERN
24-1 when allow < 14 pts
9-2 vs def allow > 250 ypg
40-24 on road
6-0 on turf (Minn, Wisc, Mich, Hawaii)
19-11 as HD
10-4-1 as dog >24
14-5 in non-conf road
10-2 as RF < 13
2-7-1 vs Pac 10
11-3 before conf open (Kansas)
21-7 on turf; Minn series vis 9-0
16-8 as conf HD
7-2 after bye; 6-1 vs Wisc
1-6-1 vs Purdue
10-0 before Mich (Penn St)
0-6 before Illinois (Mich)
Illinois series dog 9-5; 4-7 in home finale
8-2 in season finale (Hawaii)
OHIO STATE
21-10 off SU loss
17-5 vs good rush team (avg > 230 ypg)
3-8 as RF
6-14 off home win
9-1-1 as single digit HF
4-9 as fave >20
9-2 home opener (Cinc)
2-6 vs MAC; 10-17-1 after SU win
10-4 non-conf road
10-2 at Iowa
7-3 in HC game (Indiana)
5-10 vs Mich St; series vis 7-2
3-7-1 before Mich; 7-2-1 vs Purd; series fave 8-2
Mich series host 14-7-1; 4-1-1 HD vs Mich
PENN STATE
58-19 when score > 28 pts
11-22 vs good def (allow < 310 ypg)
1-30 when score < 14
5-10 season opener (Akron)
16-4 road opener (Bost Coll)
2-9 conf opener; 2-5 vs Wisc
1-6 vs Minn; 3-6 in domes; 1-6 before Purd
1-8 before bye (Purd)
1-5 vs Iowa
Ohio St series host 6-0
N?Westrn series host 6-1
possible over vs Indiana
Mich St series host 9-2; 11-2 final home
PURDUE
22-11 after 2+ SU wins
23-12 vs good run def (allow < 3.25 ypr)
10-3 off BB road (Wisc ?, Ohio St)
3-11 as RD < 7 pts
2-9 as conf RD
24-11-2 as HF
9-1 home off BB SU wins
13-6-1 as Big 10 RF
4-8 vs non-conf
4-10 before bye (Ball St)
8-14-2 conf road
N Dame series host 7-2
1-9 in 2nd of BB road (N Dame, Iowa)
7-1-1 in HC game (Wisc)
13-5-1 vs N?Westrn; series vis 10-2
1-8 in 2nd of BB Big 10 road (Iowa)
2-7-1 vs Ohio St; 4-12-2 before Indiana
Indiana series host 6-0; 6-10-1 home finale
WISCONSIN
17-8 vs good def (allow < 17 ppg)
5-14 vs good pass (avg > 250 ypg)
21-11 after being RF
9-3 as HD
5-16 as HF
1-13 as DD fave
16-2 as RD > 7
22-5 as conf dog > 6
5-13 vs non-conf; 6-7 vs MAC
1-6 in 2nd straight home
15-8 on road
9-4 conf opener (Penn St); 2-10 home off non-conf
Illinois series host 3-8; fave 7-2
8-3 vs Ohio St; 8-2 as RD
11-5 after Ohio St (Purd)
9-4 before bye (N?West); possible over
11-2 in home finale (Minn)
Mich St series fave 9-2
Iowa series fave 4-7; 1-6 after Mich St
