Finally had a nice winning weekend with some easy covers and nice profits. I especially liked Colorado almost winning outright between the hedges... luckily they found a way to blow the SU win.
I played these a couple days ago on Pinnacle and will just post the lines I got them at, as to not screw up my record keeping... I havent been able to post because of school... I hate school. I see some have gone against me, some for me in the last couple days.
Nebraska -20.5 (KU)
------ Lets just be honest. Nebraska is going to be out for blood in this one. I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I didnt like the cap the 'revenge factor' as I think it is one of the most overrused tools out there... But this is a LEGIT case where it should come into play.
KU absolutely plastered Nebraska last year in Lawrence. I was there, and it wasnt pretty. The Huskers were embarassed. Most of that team is back this year, and if they have a chance to pile it on in this one, I absolutely expect them to do it.
KU's QB situation is still up in the air. I expect Meier to go... if not... its gonna be ugly. Last week I said Mangino would simplify the game plan for Barmann so he couldnt kill them... that was exactly the case.
This time around, Mangino wont be able to do that. Nebraska is going to score on KU's defense... so Mangino will HAVE to open up the offense. This is where it gets ugly. When Barmann feels like he has to put the team on his shoulders, and starts throwing it into double coverage, or running around and fumbling the ball.
There is a reason this line has jumped, and the public has it right, I'm afraid.
I hope I am wrong... but I doubt it.
Baylor -1.5 (KSU)
---- KSU is actually the favorite right now. WHAT???!!!
This team is AWFUL! I keep saying it... but it cant be understated. They truly are a terrible team. And I'm still not sure if Prince can coach a lick.
I see this as a fairly low scoring affair, but with the Bears having control of it all game long... something like a 17-7 or 20-10 game.
Its weird to think... but Baylor could EASILY be 4-0 right now. And that is why there is HUGE value here. If one play in each of there games had gone the other way, they easily could be undefeated. In that case, this line is -7.5 or something. And KSU's wins are all against creampuffs.
If this line gets to 3 by kickoff... I will be loading up. As is, I will probably add a unit or more.
Texas A&M -2.5 (TT)
--- Texas Tech doesnt impress me at all. There offense isnt clicking, and the new clock thing seems to be a detriment to them... eliminating possessions (Leach went NUTS about this rule in the media call a couple weeks ago).
A&M isnt great, but they will grind down the Raiders and take away some of their routes... I think they win be a TD or more.
Colorado +14.5 (@Mis.)
--- Yeah, I'll back them again.
They guys can play defense... and any week now, they will start playing with some more chemistry and win some football games. They are DEFINATELY not as bad as people think, and that is something I said before they almost shocked Georgia.
They will find a way to keep Daniels from going nuts, and I think they keep this one respectable... with the same gameplan they had last week: try to shorten the game and give themselves a chance to win in the 2nd half.
Also... a little add-on. This isnt a big 12 play, but I am going to play it based on what I saw last week.
USF +4 (Rut.)
--- USF has just as much talent as Rutgers and gets this one at home. I think they will win outright.
This team has VERY VERY good team speed. They will do everything they can to keep Rice in check, and I think they do that.
Grothe impressed me... he is very allusive and has speed... He also mostly avoided mistakes... which would have killed them last week.
I see this Bull team flying to the ball and staying with Rutgers until the end, and pulling off the upset to knock the Knights from the polls next week.
GL guys.
I played these a couple days ago on Pinnacle and will just post the lines I got them at, as to not screw up my record keeping... I havent been able to post because of school... I hate school. I see some have gone against me, some for me in the last couple days.
Nebraska -20.5 (KU)
------ Lets just be honest. Nebraska is going to be out for blood in this one. I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I didnt like the cap the 'revenge factor' as I think it is one of the most overrused tools out there... But this is a LEGIT case where it should come into play.
KU absolutely plastered Nebraska last year in Lawrence. I was there, and it wasnt pretty. The Huskers were embarassed. Most of that team is back this year, and if they have a chance to pile it on in this one, I absolutely expect them to do it.
KU's QB situation is still up in the air. I expect Meier to go... if not... its gonna be ugly. Last week I said Mangino would simplify the game plan for Barmann so he couldnt kill them... that was exactly the case.
This time around, Mangino wont be able to do that. Nebraska is going to score on KU's defense... so Mangino will HAVE to open up the offense. This is where it gets ugly. When Barmann feels like he has to put the team on his shoulders, and starts throwing it into double coverage, or running around and fumbling the ball.
There is a reason this line has jumped, and the public has it right, I'm afraid.
I hope I am wrong... but I doubt it.
Baylor -1.5 (KSU)
---- KSU is actually the favorite right now. WHAT???!!!
This team is AWFUL! I keep saying it... but it cant be understated. They truly are a terrible team. And I'm still not sure if Prince can coach a lick.
I see this as a fairly low scoring affair, but with the Bears having control of it all game long... something like a 17-7 or 20-10 game.
Its weird to think... but Baylor could EASILY be 4-0 right now. And that is why there is HUGE value here. If one play in each of there games had gone the other way, they easily could be undefeated. In that case, this line is -7.5 or something. And KSU's wins are all against creampuffs.
If this line gets to 3 by kickoff... I will be loading up. As is, I will probably add a unit or more.
Texas A&M -2.5 (TT)
--- Texas Tech doesnt impress me at all. There offense isnt clicking, and the new clock thing seems to be a detriment to them... eliminating possessions (Leach went NUTS about this rule in the media call a couple weeks ago).
A&M isnt great, but they will grind down the Raiders and take away some of their routes... I think they win be a TD or more.
Colorado +14.5 (@Mis.)
--- Yeah, I'll back them again.
They guys can play defense... and any week now, they will start playing with some more chemistry and win some football games. They are DEFINATELY not as bad as people think, and that is something I said before they almost shocked Georgia.
They will find a way to keep Daniels from going nuts, and I think they keep this one respectable... with the same gameplan they had last week: try to shorten the game and give themselves a chance to win in the 2nd half.
Also... a little add-on. This isnt a big 12 play, but I am going to play it based on what I saw last week.
USF +4 (Rut.)
--- USF has just as much talent as Rutgers and gets this one at home. I think they will win outright.
This team has VERY VERY good team speed. They will do everything they can to keep Rice in check, and I think they do that.
Grothe impressed me... he is very allusive and has speed... He also mostly avoided mistakes... which would have killed them last week.
I see this Bull team flying to the ball and staying with Rutgers until the end, and pulling off the upset to knock the Knights from the polls next week.
GL guys.
