Big East Breakdown

[Lumi]

Big East Breakdown


While the BIG EAST CONFERENCE continues to come up big in bowl games (12-4 straight up the last three years), the fact of the matter is the league continues to shrink in stature.

That?s because a dismal 15-25 against the spread performance mark outside the conference last season watered down a sparkling 81-37 ATS effort the prior three years.

Where to turn in 2009? Our best suggestion would be to concentrate on the better coaches in this conference, while they are still here. There are a handful of real good ones to choose. Despite the fact that no team in the BIG EAST will be a legitimate threat for BCS title honors, there are coaches in this league that make a nice living beating the number.

Here is my take on the Big East for 2009.

Returning starters are listed alongside each team's name (returning QB's designated with an *).


Big East

CINCINNATI ? *8/1
Team Theme ? THE DEFENSE RESTS
What are the odds of a team using five different starting QB?s and winning a conference championship? The odds should be pretty lofty but that?s exactly what Cincinnati did in 2008. The Bearcats are happy that 6?6? 230 lb SR QB Tony Pike is back. Pike shredded a newly installed 3-4 defense, 69-27, in the Bearcat Bowl (Spring), going 25 of 35 for 210 yards and a touchdown. It?s the defense that will likely be an Achilles heel for head coach Brian Kelly?s club this season. After losing 13 starters from last year?s unit, Kelly was forced to make changes. ?I?m really pleased with our defense,? he claimed after the spring game. ?We got our defensive coordinator in place.? What did he say? It sounds an awful lot like coach-speak to us. Kelly will have trouble notching another of those double-digit win seasons that he has.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. West Virginia (11/13)

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CONNECTICUT ? 6/6
Team Theme ? HABIT FORMING
Is it any wonder Randy Edsall?s name seems to pop up annually when new coach searches are underway? To recap, in seven years since moving to Division 1-A football, the Huskies are 49-36. In five years in the Big East, they have made three bowl games and won a conference championship. They are also one of three teams this season that managed to improve their stats both offensively and defensively yet decline both SU and ATS last season. FYI: teams of this pedigree make a habit of rewarding their backers the following season. Six starters are back from a defense that finished 6th in the land last year, including all linebackers. However, they will need to replace QB Tyler Lorenzen and RB Donald Brown, the Big East Player of the Year who rushed for a nation high 2083 yards in 2008. Consider it a done deal.
PLAY ON: vs. Rutgers (10/31)

LOUISVILLE ? 7/6
Team Theme ? FIRE AND DESIRE
There's a raging fire in Louisville and it's centered on the seat belonging to head coach Steve Kragthorpe. Last year's promising 5-2 start dissolved into an 0-5 finish, resulting in a second straight non-bowl season for the Cardinals. While it certainly is not the reason Coach ?K? was hired, it?s important to note that his teams at Tulsa were 12-13 after his first two years on the job. His desire to get the Redbirds back into contention in the Big East has never been stronger. In order to do so, Kragthorpe?s troops will need to outplay 8 opponents that played in bowl games last season, including 5 on the road. The fire in his belly should ignite his troops this season. Let?s hope no one gets burned.
PLAY ON: vs. Kentucky (9/19)

PITTSBURGH ? *7/7
Team Theme ? STAIN REMOVER
Talk about a buzz-kill. Just when it appeared the Panthers were in full remission from a three-year battle with mediocrity under head coach Dave Wannstedt, Pittsburgh laid an egg a pterodactyl would be envious of when they were shutout, 3-0, by Oregon State in last year?s Sun Bowl. When Wannstedt was hired four years ago, Dennis Dodd of Sportline.com said, ?There may be no other coach in the country who knows the very soil beneath him better than ?Wanny?. Wannstedt?s blood and sweat literally stain the grass at his alma mater.? The players are in place, with SR QB Bill Stull and his top three targets back on the job in 2009. Stull led his team to 4 come-from-behind 4Q wins last year. We believe that last year?s Sun Bowl disaster was just Wanny being Wanny.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Rutgers (10/16)

RUTGERS ? 8/6
Team Theme ? PICKUP STICKS
Sometimes, starting over can be a good thing. Given a choice, Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano would rather not restart. 2009 looks to be a year of transition for the Knights. With the loss of QB Mike Teel, they will be starting a new signal caller for the first time since 2005. In addition, WR Kenny Britt, became a first-round draft choice of the Tennessee Titans. The coaching staff also has a fresh look with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a new special teams coach. Good news is that incumbent QB Domenic Natale, a Michigan State transfer, enjoyed a fine spring game. He joins a backfield that features all 4 top RB?s back in 2009. The bottom line is Schiano?s been here and done that. He?s just starting over, again.
PASS

SOUTH FLORIDA ? *5/6
Team Theme ? YOUNG BULLS
It used to be when the big boys scheduled obligatory non-conference cupcake games against in-state lightweights it was an automatic ?W?. That?s not the case this year when Florida State and Miami, Florida take on in-state stepchild USF. The red-headed Bulls have made their mark under head coach Jim Leavitt and are a force in the Big East Conference these days. All-conference QB Matt Grothe returns along with 5 running backs that enjoyed breakout games last year. However, other than a deep backfield, this year?s roster borders on delicate with 28 newcomers participating in the spring game. Worse, 6 of the final 7 games are against foes that played in bowl games last season. If you intend on riding this bull, makes plans to hop on early.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Pittsburgh (10/24)

SYRACUSE ? *6/7
Team Theme - COO, COO, CA-CHOO, MR. ROBINSON
A long-awaited new era is in finally place at Syracuse. Greg Robinson and his 10-37 record was pink-slipped and replaced by Doug Marrone, the offensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints for the last three years. His first edict was to establish a new image. No facial hair, collared shirts for all interviews and mandatory effort in the classroom and on the field were right at the top of the list. "We've changed," WR Mike Williams said. "We have a new coach. Everybody wants to win. We're working harder. We're practicing harder. We're doing stuff we didn't do before. We're getting up by 6 a.m. and working out. It's great playing for coach Marrone. He's all about winning. He wants to change now. He said he's not into rebuilding programs, that he wants to win now.?
PLAY AGAINST: vs. West Virginia (10/11)

WEST VIRGINIA ? 7/8
Team Theme ? FADE FROM WHITE TO BROWN
West-by-God?s streak of three-consecutive Top 10 finishes came to a halt last season in Bill Stewarts? first-year at the helm in Morgantown. That?s not to say the Mountaineers underachieved. That?s hardly the case. Expected to flounder by many pundits following Rich Rodriguez? evacuation to Michigan, WVU performed admirably last year, especially after opening the campaign 1-2. The turning point was the 31 unanswered points scored in a win against shell-shocked Auburn. That victory sustained an eventual 5-game win steak and put Stewart on the coaching map. With QB Pat White off to the NFL, Jarrett Brown (2-0 as a starter) will fill his shoes. Brown completed 16 straight passes in the spring game and appears ready for the challenge. With dynamic Noel Devine (1289 rush yards last year) entrenched in the backfield, a 5th straight bowl win could be in the offing for the stump-jumpers.
PLAY ON: vs. Pittsburgh (11/27)

 

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Big Ten Breakdown

Big Ten Breakdown

Big Ten Breakdown


As we reported last year, the BIG 10 CONFERENCE has been an Ohio State love fest the last four seasons where the Buckeyes have gone 29-3 in conference play while capturing four straight titles.

That puts Ohio State in elite company, tying Michigan with four consecutive crowns. Better yet, OSU is the only team in its 112-year history to have stood alone atop the BIG 10 CONFERENCE four straight years.

A total of 26 all-BIG 10 players from last season return in 2009. In addition 10 of the 11 teams welcome back at least half of their starters, with Minnesota (18) and Indiana (17) leading the way. In addition, the Top 6 QB?s in efficiency are back in 2009.

The BIG 10 will battle 20 non-conference bowl teams this campaign, seven more than last season?.

ILLINOIS ? *8 / 6
Team Theme ? ZOOK, LINE AND STINKER
College football?s best rags-to-riches team in 2007 was back on the streets panhandling last year when prosperity turned the Illini from winners back to losers. Don?t feel too bad for Ron Zook?s squad, though. They?ll erase the stench of that stinker season before you know it. ?Ron works at one-speed ? 100 miles an hour ? and he goes at that speed all the time. From the time he wakes up until he goes to sleep, if he goes to sleep, he is going to be doing anything he can to make his players and football team better,? says Mike Gottfried, ESPN analyst. Fortunately for Zook, his top two producers are back in 2008. SR QB Juice Williams, who led the Big Ten in passing and total offense last season, and Big Ten 1st-team WR Arrelious Benn pave the way. By the way, last year?s offense and defense performed better than 2007?s Rose Bowl team. Go figure.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (11/7)

INDIANA ? *8 / 9
Team Theme ? KELLEN ME SOFTLY
It was a grand master plan. Move three-year starting quarterback Kellen Lewis to wide receiver and have him work in tandem with JR QB Ben Chappell. Last spring, Chappell had won the job because of a team suspension handed to Lewis. After winning back the starting job last August, Lewis responded with a dazzling performance in season-opening victory over Western Kentucky that earned a fifth conference player of the week award. Then came a series of nagging injuries and another suspension that slowed Lewis and he spent most of the remainder of the 2008 season either on the sideline or rotating between quarterback, receiver and running back. Head coach Bill Mallory gave Lewis a second chance. Unfortunately, he won?t get a third. Lewis was booted from the team this spring. Nonetheless, eight other players will be playing new positions this year, including seven from offense to defense. Talk about a team in transition!
PASS


IOWA ? *6 / 8
Team Theme ? FIELD OF DREAMS
On the whole, there is a lot to like about the Hawkeyes this season. Sure, they lost RB Shonn Greene (1850 yards, second best in the nation) and two first team all-Big Ten offensive linemen to the NFL draft, but they are still well-fortified. Five second team all-Big Ten performers, two of whom are offensive linemen, join QB Ricky Stanzi, an all-Big Ten third teamer. Filling Greene?s shoes is SO RB Jewel Hampton, who played as a true freshman in 2008. He rushed for 463 yards and scored seven touchdowns, the most TD?s ever by an Iowa true freshman. Seven home games lace the schedule and home is where the wins have been. Iowa is 42-9 at Kinnick Stadium the last eight years. With Iowa?s offense and defense each improved by more than 50 YPG last season, the Hawkeyes dream of being a player in the Big Ten chase in 2009 may be real.
PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (10/24)

MICHIGAN ? *11 / 5
Team Theme ? BOTTOMS UP
You know you've had a bad year when your team suffered its first nine-loss season in its 129-year history, had a 33-year bowl streak snapped and lost five games SU as a favorite. To put things into perspective for Wolverine head coach Rich Rodriguez, the nine losses Michigan endured last year equal those Bo Schembechler suffered in his first seven seasons combined with the Wolves. It?s a toss-up who had a rougher year in the state of Michigan, the Wolverines football team or the automakers. In his second year in Ann Arbor, with a cast of 16 starters back from last year?s squad (including 11 on offense), Rodriguez only hopes for the kind of success he had in his second year at West Virginia, when he led the Mountaineers to a 9-4 season after going 3-8 in his debut. It can?t get any worse.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (11/21)

MICHIGAN STATE ? 7 / 8
Team Theme ? DRUNK WITH SUCCESS
Here?s to a masterful job by Mark Dantonio is his two years with the Spartans. After inheriting a team that had suffered through three straight losing seasons, Dantonio has lifted MSU to new heights in short order, taking them to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1997. Given that success and Michigan's dismal 2008 season, the Spartans will be favored to beat state-rival Michigan in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1967. That?s pretty much a no-no in our books. Losing three-year starters QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer to the NFL draft doesn?t help. The bottom line is we?re not fond of teams that improved their win total by two games despite a decline on both sides of the ball. It?s often a sign of too much bubbly, too soon. Be careful here.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Michigan (10/3)

MINNESOTA ? *10 / 8
Team Theme ? BACK AND DECKER
After an atrocious 1-11 mark in 2007, the Gophers tied for the second best turnaround in the nation in 2008 when they finished 7-6 on the season. The biggest strides were made on the defensive side of the ball where Minnesota improved a whopping 138 YPG, marking the 3rd best improvement in the land. In fact, the 22 sacks registered by the defense last year tied Nebraska for top honors in the country. Better news is 18 starters are back in 2009, including QB Adam Weber and SR WR Eric Decker, whose 84 receptions was best in the Big 10 in 2008. Here?s hoping they enjoy their new digs at the TCF Bank Stadium in 2009. That?s where their wins will need to be manufactured, with nine opponents who had winning records last season dotting this year?s itinerary.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Michigan State (10/31)

NORTHWESTERN ? 5 / 8
Team Theme ? KAFKA PROJECT
We called the Wildcats a ?sleeper team? last season and, like a heavy dose of Ambien, they knocked the opposition out. Thanks to a vastly improved defense, Pat Fitzgerald?s troops won nine games for the first time since 1996. This year?s schedule is laced with seven home games (for the third straight year), plus a conspicuous absence of Ohio State and Michigan. That would normally send a ripple of excitement through a coach?s veins. However, the problem is the loss of 23 seniors, including QB C. J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton, the keys to the offense, could pose a major problem. Mike Kafka, who started two games and rushed for 217 yards against Minnesota last season, is projected to take the snaps this year. The Wildcats may not sniff nine wins this season, but they should be able to sleepwalk their way to another bowl game.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Minnesota (9/26)

OHIO STATE ? *4 / 7
Team Theme ? COCKED AND LOADED
The definition of a dual-threat quarterback is one who has exceptional ability passing and running the football. The epitome of the same is Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State?s sophomore sensation. In his freshman season, he ran for 631 yards and threw for 1311 yards while completing 60.6 percent of his pass attempts. To those who question his passing ability, we say rubbish. His 146.5 QB rating was the best in the Big 10. The word around Columbus this year is ?expect the unexpected?. What we expect to see is a newly unveiled ?pistol offense?, one designed to maximize Pryor?s talents. ?I can tell you the coaches are fired up. Coach Tressel is really fired up. I think this is going to be very fun. Everyone seems to be looking forward to this,? exclaimed Pryor. With no back-to-back travelers this season, a fifth straight Big 10 title looms.
PLAY ON: vs. IOWA (11/14)

PENN STATE ? *5 / 4
Team Theme ? OCTO MAN RETURNS
There are not many coaches we can do this with so, while we still can, let?s revisit the Joe Paterno library. Since Joe Pa became the head coach at Penn State in 1966, there have been 839 head coaching changes in Division 1A football programs ? an average of more than seven per team. The octogenarian?s teams are 40-11 the last four seasons, while his defense is ranked No. 4 overall in that span, allowing 294 YPG. His 383 career-wins keeps him one-up on Bobby Bowden in the race of all-time winningest coaches. More important, he?s fully recovered from hip surgery and is back on the sidelines with his troops. The Lions were hit hard with player losses, especially in the defensive backfield, where all four starters are gone. ?I?ve very concerned about it. We?ve got a long way to go,? said Paterno. Let?s hope he does, too.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Ohio State (11/7)

PURDUE ? 4 / 7
Team Theme ? PLENTY OF HOPE
There was a tear in our eye when Joe Tiller left the Boilermakers. After all, he was, pure-and-simple, a moneymaking machine. In home games, that is, where Purdue was 41-29-1 ATS under his tenure. In what is fast becoming a trend in college football these days, a replacement had already been hired in anticipation of Tiller?s retirement. At Purdue, it was Danny Hope, head coach at Eastern Kentucky from 2003-07, where his teams went 32-8 in conference play. Hope worked under Tiller last year and during the 1997-2001 seasons. The offense loses Big 10 passing leader, Curtis Painter, in addition to WR Desmond Tardy and RB Kory Sheets. fifth-year SR QB Joey Elliott hopes to fill Painter?s shoes. ?He has all the intangibles to be very good for us,? said Gary Nord, Purdue?s OC. Here?s hoping Nord is right.
PLAY ON: vs. Ohio State (10/17)

WISCONSIN ? *6 / 5
Team Theme ? GOOD, BETTER, BEST
You can pretty much assess a coach?s worth after his first three years on the job. If this coach owns a better record than his predecessor posted in the previous three year span, the new guy is generally on the path to success. If his team is underachieving, it?s almost always a matter of time before a pink slip is issued. In Brett Bielema?s case, he inherited a team that went 26-12 in its previous three seasons, all under his current boss, Barry Alvarez. The results are in and Bielema has passed the test. He went 28-11 in his first three seasons with the Badgers, and, in the process, improved an already staunch team. Last year?s unit set a school record with six games were decided by three or less points. That?s a tendency of good defensive coaches. They out-coach other coaches, even the better ones.
PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (9/26)


STOP HOT LINKING MY PAGES BG FALCON

 

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[Cie]

More good stuff here:

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BGF, Why do you keep posting these links despte numerous requests from Admin to stop? Am I missing something?

 

[BGFalcon]

Actually, I haven't seen any "requests". The first deletion appeared to be because it was a pay site that the article linked to. I didn't know that. I'm not sure why the most recent one was deleted. I was just trying to provide the link so readers could see the additional information from the website that illuminati copies from. I'm not sure what the problem is with posting the link and I haven't seen a request from admin to stop. All I've seen is my links deleted.

I guess I don't understand why illumunati can copy information from other sites (some of them pay sites) and post it but I can't follow up with a link from that site so people can get additional information.

 

[MadJack]

no links are to be posted. it's been a rule for more than 10 years. we try to be flexible but let's make it easy and say NO LINKS AT ALL.

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[Lumi]

College football preview: Big East mired in mediocrity

College football preview: Big East mired in mediocrity

College football preview: Big East mired in mediocrity

If you thought the Big East has been bad in recent years, just wait ?till this season.

There is no favorite, just a bunch of mediocre teams, for the most part lacking big-time talent.

Oddsmakers seem to like South Florida to win the conference. The media prefers Pittsburgh, with the Panthers picked in multiple preseason publications. Rutgers and West Virginia also should be in the mix. But none of the above is heads and shoulders better than UConn, Louisville or even Syracuse (gasp).

The Big East lost its top two running backs, top two passers and two of the top three receivers from last year are gone.

Only three teams?Pittsburgh, South Florida and Cincinnati?return experienced starting quarterbacks.

Things look so bleak that there might not even be a Big East team ranked in the pre-season Top 25 polls. That hasn?t happened this decade.

What does all this mean for bettors?

Last year, fading the Big East in non-conference play was profitable. The Big East was 15-26 ATS when stepping out of conference.

That strategy has the potential to be even more successful this year.

But the conference?s unpredictability is a huge warning sign for bettors. The Big East is wide open. Anything can happen on any given Saturday, Thursday or Friday.

Talent-gauging opportunities

(These early games will help us get a feel for the Big East).

Minnesota at Syracuse, Sept. 5

Pittsburgh at Buffalo, Sept. 12

East Carolina at West Virginia, Sept. 12

North Carolina at UConn, Sept. 12

Louisville at Kentucky, Sept. 19

Florida International at Rutgers, Sept. 19

Cincinnati at Oregon State, Sept. 19

South Florida at Florida State, Sept. 26

Projected finish

(ATS records are from last three years)

1. South Florida

ATS: 20-16. Home: 11-7. Road: 10-5

Thing to remember: South Florida?s new defensive coordinator Joe Tresey was fired by Cincinnati after helping the Bearcats win last year?s Big East title. The Bulls host the Bearcats on Oct. 15.

2. Pittsburgh

ATS: 18-17. Home: 4-8. Away: 7-2

Thing to remember: Pittsburgh returns 15 starters, the most in the conference.

3. Rutgers

ATS: 23-13. Home: 11-7. Road: 10-5

Thing to remember: Rutgers went 7-0 ATS against Big East competition last season. Bonus note: The Scarlet Knights are 8-2 ATS as a road dog the last three seasons.

4. West Virginia

ATS: 16-19-2. Home: 7-10-1. Away: 8-6-1

Thing to remember: Pat White was the best quarterback West Virginia ever had, with all do respect to Major Harris. His loss will be enormous, but his replacement senior Jarrett Brown has played well in meaningful games each of the last three years.

With running back Noel Devine at his disposal, expect Brown and the Mountaineer offense to continue to put up big numbers.

5. Cincinnati

Non-conference: 2-4

ATS: 21-15-1. Home: 11-5. Away: 10-7-1

Thing to remember: Play the over in Cincinnati games. The Bearcats have a returning starting quarterback in senior Tony Pike and one of the league?s most dynamic weapons in receiver / kick returner Mardy Gilyard.

But the Bearcats return just one starter on defense and will be playing for a new defensive coordinator.

6. Louisville

Non-conference: 3-1

ATS: 17-18. Home: 9-9. Away: 7-8

Thing to remember: Coach Steve Kragthorpe is heading into his third season after replacing Bobby Petrino. In his third season at Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane went 10-3 ATS.

7. UConn

Non-conference: 2-3

ATS: 18-17. Home: 10-7. Away: 7-9

Thing to remember: The Huskies have been a feel-good story moving up to Division I. But much of their success has come against second-tier competition. UConn is 1-12 against Top 25 teams and 0-6 against teams ranked in the Top 10.

8. Syracuse Orange

Non-conference: 1-3

ATS: 16-19. Home: 8-10. Away: 8-9

Thing to remember: Fourteen scholarship players have left the team since new coach Doug Marrone arrived in December. This will force young incoming freshman to play more prominent roles immediately.

As the wear and tear of the season takes hold in late October and November, remember to consider the Orange?s lack of depth.