Bowl Thread

[Smitty]

very mediocre season. hopefully i can get something going in the bowl games. let's start off with the thrilling poinsettia bowl...

very tough call on this game. my intitial instinct is to go with the huskies. they are certainly capable of winning this game. however, they had an incredibly disappointing season. will they be motivated to play one big game? i have to think so. bowl games are still a huge reward for this program. i think we'll see a good effort from them.
tcu has maybe slipped a notch from the last couple years, but not much. their ability to stop the run will be huge tonight. they are 4th in the country, allowing 67.6 yards/game (2.4 yards/carry). if they can shut down garrett wolfe, it's going to be a blowout.
basically, i think it comes down to 'can garrett wolfe run the ball?' after a very poor 4-game stretch in which he averaged 47.5 yards/game (and the huskies lost 3 of those 4 games), he rebounded with 367 yards his last 2 games. i think he will finish his college career with a big game, going over 2000 yards for the season (he needs exactly 100).

northern ill (+13) 1 unit

 

[AR182]

smitty...

i'm with you tonight...took n. ill very small just for action.

good luck & happy holidays.

 

[Smitty]

thank you, sir. and happy holidays to you, too. and, dare i say, merry christmas.

yeah, i'm obviously less than enthusiastic about this game. and we couldn't have gotten a worse start. wolfe looks sluggish. i think we're in for a long evening.

will we ever learn? never play a game just for action.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

if they can shut down garrett wolfe, it's going to be a blowout.

well, i got ONE thing right about that game.


ah, las vegas... finalizing plans for my annual visit in may... i can't wait. but i digress.

byu (-3.5) 2 units. byu was a great team ATS this year, 9-3 overall and 7-2 as a fav. they have covered their last 2 against the pac ten, including against cal in the las vegas bowl last year. i just love the irony... the mormons have been in vegas more the last 12 months than i have. that does not sit well with me. anyways... much is being made of byu's top 42 defensive secondary players missing this game. but if the oregon qb's can't throw the ball accurately, does that really matter? if byu can put up some points early, that will take away oregon's advantage with their running game. i think beck goes out in style with a huge game today.

 

[Smitty]

Papa John's Bowl

Papa John's Bowl

i am on FIRE, with one straight win.

east carolina (+5.5) 2 units. as both of my dedicated followers will tell you, i've been riding east carolina since last year. overall, they are 18-5 ATS. 10-2 ATS away from home (one of the biggest factors i look at while handicapping bowl games), including 5-1 this year. they are 12-3 ATS as a dog, including 5-1 this year. this kinda sounds wrong, but i'm gonna keep riding the pirates. i think right now, skip holtz could outcoach his old man. i definitely respect south florida. grothe is fun to watch. but he is a freshman, starting a bowl game. i expect east carolina will force him into some critical mistakes. both teams should be very excited to be playing in a bowl game, but i think da bulls' season-ending win at west virginia may have been their real bowl.

 

[Smitty]

Armed Forces Bowl

Armed Forces Bowl

tulsa (+1.5) 1 unit. i'm gonna take paul smith and the golden hurricanes (is that like a golden shower?) in this one. tulsa really struggled down the stretch, before righting the ship with a blowout of tulane. i think that utah will have a tough time bouncing back from a very difficult loss to byu. the last 5 or so minutes of that game was about as exciting as college football gets. back and forth.... just great to watch. anyways... very hard to bounce back from a loss like that to your biggest rival. utah is 86th in the country against the pass, allowing 220 ypg. smith will find open receivers.

 

[Smitty]

Hawai'i Bowl

Hawai'i Bowl

so much for my hot streak.

arizona state (+7.5) 1 unit. why is it, every time hawaii plays in a bowl game, it's at home? anyways.... hawaii is 0-3 ATS this year against teams from BCS conferences, including 0-2 their last two games of the season. asu is a respectable 4-2 ATS away from home. look for the sun devils to pound the ball on the ground and (hopefully) keep the rainbow warriors' (they will always be the RAINBOW warriors to me) potent offense off the field.

 

[Smitty]

Motor City Bowl

Motor City Bowl

i'm on quite a roll... can't hit a damn thing. so i present my picks for everybody to fade...

central mich (-8) 1 unit gotta stay with the team that went 11-2 ATS. they should be fine with quinn at the helm.

over (51.5) 1 unit. i can't just give you a side to fade... i feel obligated to lose the total as well.

good luck, and when the blue raiders win 23-10*, don't forget to thank me.

*this will probably be the first time i ever pick the correct final score.

 

[Smitty]

Emerald Bowl

Emerald Bowl

somebody call the fire department... smitty is en fuego. 1-1 yesterday!!! i'm hotter than stu feiner.

florida st (+3) 2 units. liked this ever since the matchups were announced. yes, florida state was awful this year. but ucla is hardly a great team. they have an excellent defense, but how fired up will they be for this game? their season was made when they beat usc. i would have played just about anybody against ucla in a bowl game, so i am stuck with the seminoles. how's that for a ringing endorsement?

under (38) 1 unit. normally when i play an under, i want to know that both defenses will be fired up to play a big game. i don't think that will be the case tonight, which is why it's only for 1 unit. however, what we do have tonight is two inept offenses.

 

[Smitty]

Independence Bowl

Independence Bowl

wow, 2 straight 1-1 days, but this time i actually turned a profit. when will this hot streak end?

alabama (+2.5) 2 units. basically, i think this one boils down to the conference match-up. the sec was the best conference in the country again. the big 12... not so much. for bowl games, i always look closely at how the teams played away from home. at first glance, advantage ok st. ok st was 2-4 on the road, alabama was 0-4. ATS though, ok st was 3-3, 'bama was 3-0-1. the cowboys beat arkansas state and kansas. not terribly impressive. 'bama lost at arkansas (by 1), florida, tennessee (by 3), and lsu. somehow i don't think ok st would have fared any better with that schedule. ok state was a mediocre team in a mediocre conference. 'bama was a mediocre team in the best conference.

one more factor... 'bama is free of mike shula. that's gotta be worth an extra touchdown right there.

over (48.5) 1 unit. this total doesn't make a lot of sense. the most points scored in any alabama game all year was 49. so naturally i have to play the over. ok state gave up 28 ppg on the road. throw out the 7 they allowed to arkansas state, they gave up 32.6 ppg away from home. hell, if florida state can score 44 on ucla, anything is possible.

 

[Ronnie]

Good Luck Smitty! You'll get it turned around

 

[Smitty]

Texas Bowl

Texas Bowl

rutgers (-8.5) 2 units. partly another anti-big 12 play, to be sure. but this time, the mediocre big 12 team is playing a very solid team. rutgers really had a breakout season. away from home, kansas state was 1-3 ATS, rutgers was 4-2. my biggest concern is a rutgers letdown, after being one game away from a bcs bowl. but i think rutgers should still be motivated to get rid of the bad taste left by their bowl loss last year. bowl games are still a huge deal to this program. plus, i think the kids will be excited coach schiano is sticking around. rutgers would really have to lay a complete egg to not cruise past k state. these guys haven't gotten their proper respect all year. were they really underdogs to pitt and navy?

under (44) 1 unit. did i learn my lesson last night? apparently not. playing an under in a game where motivation is in question. well, i never claimed to be bright. i'm expecting domination from rutgers on both sides of the ball.

 

[Smitty]

thanks, ronnie! the smitty train is really starting to roll.

 

[DeadPrez]

good luck smitty :toast:

I'm on board the Bama train...roll tide today

 

[Smitty]

Holiday Bowl

Holiday Bowl

thanks, dp!!

i love it... we're finally getting into the 'real' bowl games. first the independence bowl, now the holiday bowl.

texas a&m (+3) 1 unit. is this the worst 9-3 team to ever come out of a bcs conference? could be. i've never seen a team cover the spread in so many games in the closing minutes. but i see no reason for it not to continue tonight. cal had such a disappointing season, i can't imagine them being the slightest bit inspired to play this game. when you're not ready to play a game, you're sure the hell not gonna be able to tackle a 600 lb* running back.

aggies were 4-0 ATS away from home.

lean towards the over, but i can't justify putting any more than 1 unit on this game. cal has played in a bowl game the last 3 years. average total points? 80.

*possibly a slight exaggeration of mr lane's weight. but he may LOOK like he's 600 lbs to cal's uninspired defense.

 

[Smitty]

Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl

gonna post this now, because i may not get a chance tomorrow afternoon

south carolina (-5.5) 2 units. very simple analysis on this game... while houston certainly had a nice season (especially mr kolb), south carolina was 5-0 ATS on the road this year. and 5-0 ATS as a fav. good enough for me.

and this is my 1000th post. where are all the balloons and confetti? does that come after the play wins?

 

[volfan]

:scared GL smitty...
saw a gaggle of them c0cks in Knoxvegas yesterday...

band looked gay

 

[Smitty]

thanks, volfan. a gaggle of cocks? that sounds serious.

and c'mon... the band? gay? say it ain't so. not that there's anything wrong with that.

 

[Smitty]

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Meineke Car Care Bowl

i am on absolute fire.... 4-4 my last 8 plays. WOO HOO!!!

if you can't get fired up to play in the meineke car care bowl, you shouldn't be playing college football. what's the trophy? a bronze muffler? i was wondering why the students were throwing spark plugs on the field during bc's last game.

navy (+7) 2 units. my favorite number to look at for bowl games really stands out in this matchup. bc is 1-4 ATS away from home. navy is 5-1.

interesting side note: the under was 8-1 the first 9 bowl games. the over is 7-2 the next 9.

 

[Smitty]

Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl

by the way... i did hit the play on my 1000th post, and still no confetti... no balloons... no nothin'. just a little cash. i'll take it.

tough call for me, because i hate to play 'home' teams in bowl games, and i was leaning georgia in this one.

virginia tech (-3) 1 unit. teams never seem motivated to play bowl games at home, or near home. i think virginia tech has a lot to prove in this game, and they may show up with a chip on their shoulder, which is a huge plus in a bowl game. other than back-to-back games in mid-season, this was a dominant football team. they allowed 9.3 points per game (that number balloons up to 12 ppg on the road!!). if you throw out the 38 they gave up to georgia tech, they only allowed 6.7 ppg. :scared their last 6 games, they gave up a total of 29 points, and they registered shutouts two of their last 3 games. wow. georgia has struggled to find any consistency this year. if their defense comes to play, this should be a very low-scoring game, but i think the hokies are the strongest play here.