Bowl Week card (Dec 14th -Jan 4th)

[Irish]

I'm going to use this thread through out the Bowl week (lots of plays) . Any feed back, contrary opinions or thoughts would be greatly appreciated as always.

Had to Post this game early
Cincy (-2) over Marshall
The Bearcats got HAMMERED by Louisville 70-7! HOWEVER Gino Guidugli was out that game. Normally a player should not mean that much to his team but in Guidugli's case he does! He did not play against Louisville and snapped a string of 46 consecutive starts. The cincy offense is set up for this kid, he is the equivalent to Payton Manning for the Bearcats. According to CBSsportsline Cincinnati expects to have Guidugli (broken throwing hand) back for the bowl game. Now they did get killed by Louisville but before that game the bearcats won 4 straight blowing out Memphis, So. Fla, TCU and so. Miss. What is impressive is the Cincy DEFENSE held those (IMO good offensive teams) to under 24 points! I'm already on this at -2 but waiting for the LAST word on QB Gino and may re-hit this.

GL
Irish

 

[bombercoops]

Like cinci here also Irish. I'm looking forward to seeing what else you like for the bowl season.

 

[Irish]

Hawaii (-3.5) over UAB
Basically a home game for the Warriors, the Blazers come into paradise off a loss at So. Miss. Being the first bowl for the Blazers it might get a little overwhelming for the boys from AB but it should be business as usually for Hawaii. After all they have won 3 in a row at home to close the season. This will be an offensive explosion and the Warriors have the type of offense that can hang a lot of points on a team. 40 plus on MSU and N'Western. Time shouldn't be an issue but the events leading up to the game might. there are a ton of events and a lot of them go into the evening. Which to UAB's clock late night. Might make some tired blazers on game day. Still the play is based on the offensive production of Hawaii over the last few game. They have come together and IMO beaten 2 good teams! IMO Hawaii playing better football, Hackney is a great deep ball QB but Elimenian(sp) will be locked down on White! The Warriors cannot stop the run but they can come up with an Interception or two! If Hawaii can roll up 90 points in two weeks on two Big Ten teams, what can the Warriors do against a UAB team that gave up 59 points against Tulane and somehow helped Southern Miss transform from C-USA's worst passing team into a passing juggernaut?
Going to be a track meet, might be a great OVER play if the total is in the 70's!

GL
Irish

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck Irish -- Hawaii will score some points that's for sure.

Will be checking back in once we're closer to see your final card.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this bowling season buddy!

toy

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

Anil, want to have our annual challenge?
send me youu cell# and I'll give you a call, I want revenge!!!!




:moon:

 

[Irish]

North Texas (+4.5) over So. Miss L
The Golden Eagles allow 183.9 yards per game on the ground. Jamario Thomas has gained 1,709 yards this season and sat out their last game!
Rushing AGAINST the So. Miss defense:
MEM 42-280: DeAngelo Williams 27-199, Joseph Doss 7-40, Darron White 2-17, Danny Wimprine 5-16
TCU 48-234: Robert Merrill 24-149, Kenny Boyd 7-50, Brandon Hassell 12-32 & three touchdowns
AL 51-262: Kenneth Darby 29-197, Tim Castille 12-47, Aaron Johns 6-21, Tyrone Prothro 1-6
HOU 47-173: Ryan Gilbert 18-95, Harold Taylor 6-40, Kendal Briles 6-24, Carl Francis 3-11, Vincent Marshall 2-10
CAL: Arrington 31-260
ALBRM 31-125: Corey White 13-60, Dan Burks 10-56, Darrell Hackney 8-9

Now North Texas is not playing the teams so.miss is, but they are committed to the run and should be able to move the ball. NT QB Hall threw 13 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. Every team they play knows NT is going to run the ball and every team stacks the box. YET NT still has big numbers rushing. NT has to force Almond into bad throws, he is an OK QB but makes a lot of bad decisions. NT has a poor defense and So. Miss will score points. The green machine will have playaction working! So. Miss WILL have the box stacked, making Hall beat them with the pass. Hall not the best QB in the land but knows where and when to throw the ball given time and the playaction pass will give him the time and openings. This is the 4th trip to New Orleans for North Texas and they are used to this event. IMO Thomas will have a big game and the machine might win out right.

GL
Irish

 

[Irish]

UNC (-3) over Boston College
Peterson (broken hand) is expected to return but will still have problems due to a broken throwing hand. But Petersons return is something the Eagles needed after the embarrassing loss to Cuse in their last game. Eagles surrendered a league-low 20 touchdowns and 16.3 points per game in the regular season. Kiwanuka is just flat out a beast on the defensive line! UNC is one of the worst defensive teams in Division I-A. HOWEVER UNC has played great football of late. winning 3 out of their last 4 and the only loss coming to VT by 3. LOOK at the UNC schedule and this is my biggest reason for taking them. The have played a tough conference schedule @UVA, @FSU, Miami, VT, but then add in Louisville and @ Utah. Some good teams to show maybe the heels defense isn't as bad as the stats indicate. BUT IMO UNC has confidence and should give the eagles a run for the money. The game is @ Charlotte NC and a lot of Carolina blue should be in the stands. I have to think BC is a little disappointed after their last game and UNC comes into the game on a high note. Cuse had success running the ball something UNC does well. The North Carolina offensive line has to come to play!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

UVA (-5.5) over Fresno
The bulldogs have dominated over their last 5 games but the level of competition was terrible. UVA split their last 4 games but against VT, Miami, Maryland and Ga Tech. All IMO good competition. Looking at Fresno the only win they have against a quality team is KState. I don't like going against the Bulldogs but I think the running game of UVA will be too much for them. The big O-line of Virginia will push (IMO) a smaller Fresno defensive line around. The Bulldogs allow 155.8 rushing yards per game. I would think if Moats of La Tech could rush for 230+ then the UVA backs should have success. In fact looking at the loses Boise's RB had a career day against the bulldog defense. IMO the bulldogs can't stop the Wahoos on offense. BUT UVA has it's hands full on defense. Fresno average 228 rushing yards per game. The LB's for UVA will have to have better games than the last few if they want to win this game. The loss of Canty was a crippling blow to the defensive line of UVA. Still with that being said the strength of Fresno is running behind MAN-CHILD Mankins. The Defense will have to knock him off the ball! All in all I like Al Groh in a bowl game as well. He is not afraid to pull out the trick plays. Still I think the running game of UVA proves too much for the bulldogs.

EDIT: Begining of the season weights.....
O-line of UVA VS D-line FSU
282 I 250
309 I 250
292 I 330
318 I 246
286


Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

GT (-5) over Cuse
P.J. Daniels is not 100%, the rest helped his injury but he has not fully recovered and how much the RB will play is unknown. This is bad news because Ball threw 17 interceptions and completed only 48.9 percent. HOWEVER IMO Tech has the edge on defense and that should help the offense. GT gave up only 109.5 yards per game rushing (19th in the NCAA). The defense has it's hands full with a healthy Reyes for Cuse. The GT defense will have to play run all game, even if they have to play one v one man coverage. Make Patterson beat you, he does not have the ability (6td's 9 int's) to beat GT on his own.

Common opponents are UVA and UConn both loss to UVA and beat UConn by pretty much the same margins. Cuse finished off the season beating a BC team without it's starting QB, while the jackets traveled down to Georgia and rallied from a 16-0 halftime deficit to lose 19-13.

But IMO the GT offense can move the ball on the Cuse defense. Ball is a running qb and Daniels (if he plays) give the yellow-jackets a run threat which should open up the passing game. Against rushing QB's (UVA - Haggans, Temple - Washington, WVU - Marshall) the Cuse defense gave up an average of 30 points. Look for the GT defense to cause havoc with the running game and force Patterson to throw. The should generate some turnovers. The running game of GT should be effective. I would also expect Chan Gailey to have a trick or two up his sleeve.

Cheers
Irish

 

[gman2]

great info irish. obviously we disagree on fresno/uva but your contributions are immeasurable to the forum. tons of useful info. really appreciate the work. gl tonight.

 

[taoist]

GL tonight with the yellowjackets.... I'm on 'em with ya!!!

 

[Irish]

GT/CUSE OVER (7.5) 1st quater

GL
Irish

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Thanks for the GT info and GL

 

[trolln4walii]

GL this bowl season Irish. With you on Cin and NC. Buttin' tonight but I do like that over 1Q play. Can't believe I'm going with Coach P. Sure I'll be cussing him again tonight (although I think I've used up all my cuss words on him already)

 

[Irish]

GT/CUSE UNDER (14) 2nd quarter

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

GT/CUSE OVER (10) 3rd quarter

Cheers
Irish

 

[bookkilla]

Irish, I'm seeing OVER 7.5 @ Olympic...

 

[bombercoops]

Nice call on the jackets tonight Irish. Keep the winners coming!

 

[Irish]

Bowling Green (-4) over Memphis
From what I'm seeing looks like weather will be a force tonight. This is a tough game because both teams have the ability to light it up on offense, two of the nation's top 10 offenses.

Tigers average 35.9 points and 464 yards per game. BG is 3rd in NCAA total offense averaging 496.4 yards and over 40 points per game. Very important for the BG offense to be effective early. Memphis will attempt to run the ball and with Williams it is a good move but if BG gets ahead and forces Wimprine to throw they have a better shot. Wimprine is a great QB but will force throws and BG is a team that can capitalize on those mistakes. The Falcons have come up with 23 sacks and forced 23 turnovers. Pope has been the beneficiary of the spread offense, the BG running back has emerged as a threat because most defense have to play back to avoid giving up the big play.

Also with regards to the weather, this favors BG because they play in crappy weather a lot and still manage big numbers on offense. The key in this game is line play. BG has to protect Jacobs and the d-line has to get to Wimprine. If the d-line for Memphis creates pressure Jacobs has a scrambling ability. IMO Wimprine is not a running QB, the D-line of BG should be able to bull rush to him. Look for BG WR Magner to have a good game. He is a great possession receiver to keep drives alive. Forgotten because of the talent BG has at WR (Sanders and Sharon). QB play is important and hopefully Jacobs (Soph) will not get rattled by the bowl hype.

BG has to come out and score quickly force a shootout tempo, like Cincy and UAB did against Memphis! Very simple game play for BG.....Load the box, one v one coverage on the WR's and safety help on Gideon! out of the 18 TD passes Wimprine has thrown Gideon has 11!!!!

Cheers
Irish