BOWLS

[BASON]

I do not love anything today but I am playing the following:

North Texas +7.5 -125. I expect Troy to be a very popular play today mostly based on the fact that they beat LSU. However they tend to play to the level of their competition. North Texas can throw the ball and that is how they stay in this game, and also why not so concerned about their RB being out.

Marshall +4 -120. They are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 bowl games having won all 10. On a bit of a slide at the end of the season but I expect them to show up today. Colorado State can score but there defense is bad.

Oregon -6.5 -120. I do not like playing a lot of favorites early in the bowl season, but I have not been impressed with Boise all year. Simply do not think they can keep up here with Herbert back at QB for the Ducks. I also think Oregon will come to play for the new coach.

 

[Subcloser]

GL today Bason...I didn't have time to cap the English leagues today, too many sports in action today...on the Chelsea over with ya

 

[BASON]

Thanks Sub. Winter break for me on soccer starts today. I will now focus on the bowls and begin setting up my World Cup capping. I know it is very early but I like to take the free time to get it all set up so when the leagues get started, and especially CL starts back, I can focus on it.

One of the benefits of being semi-retired is that I have the time, especially when it is snowing and cold!!

 

[BASON]

I know this game is a week away but I am putting it in now and just wanted to share.

UAB +7.5/+255

I think this is the best story of the NCAA season. Truly remarkable what they have done this year. Bill Clark is my coach of the year. UAB is extremely excited to be in this game and I expect a great effort. They have already won 5 games outright this year as an underdog and I think they get the 6th here. I think this line is way off, so I will gladly take the 7.5 and back it up with some ML money. We get the added benefit that they are facing a MAC team, most of which I will be betting against all bowl season since I do not think much of the conference.

 

[BASON]

Not a great day, but hopefully you followed my FCS plays. 2-0 with an additional parlay winner.

Have to say that Cristobal better get his act together. Oregon's performance was pathetic in this game. Boise is not that good. Oregon did not show up for this game. Not sure what is says about Cristobal but it is not a good start.

 

[BASON]

FAU Ov 64.5

Have no real interest in this game. FAU playing a bad team at home with the largest spread in bowl history. I do not like this Akron team, but I can not get myself to lay 23 in a bowl game so I will take the over. Kiffin will likely run every trick play he has and run up the score knowing he has the only game of the night. I expect them to put 50 on the board and Akron should be able to put up a few tds to get this one over.

 

[BASON]

Akron is freaking terrible. Just confirmed my thoughts about the MAC. And this team beat Ohio, makes me like UAB even more, in fact I am adding to them right now.

Over is doubtful so I will take some FAU -9.5 in the second half. This line is telling to me and looking for Akron money.

 

[BASON]

Second half saved the day. Akron is just terrible.

In fact the MAC is terrible. I just posted a bunch of stats in Destructor's thread, but over the last 5 years the MAC is 7-23 in bowl games and 21-46 over the last 15 years (with the vast majority coming from strong Miami (OH) and Toledo teams). So when we get a MAC favorite, especially one that is not one of the top teams, I will be all over the dog, especially when the dog has incentive like we have in UAB.

I certainly could be wrong about this game, but I think there is great value in UAB +7.5. I have a lot riding on this one, so I am not playing the next two games.

 

[LordofBalls]

Second half saved the day. Akron is just terrible.

In fact the MAC is terrible. I just posted a bunch of stats in Destructor's thread, but over the last 5 years the MAC is 7-23 in bowl games and 21-46 over the last 15 years (with the vast majority coming from strong Miami (OH) and Toledo teams). So when we get a MAC favorite, especially one that is not one of the top teams, I will be all over the dog, especially when the dog has incentive like we have in UAB.

I certainly could be wrong about this game, but I think there is great value in UAB +7.5. I have a lot riding on this one, so I am not playing the next two games.

I was kicking myself about 3 mins into the gm last night I stayed off FAU...
I saw Akron get stuffed by Toledo (a legitimate tm) in MAC title gm, Akron's D got some to's that led to a few quick scores that made that gm look close, but they were outclassed by far.

Fortunately, I did get on FAU 2nd H too, enough for a nice meal
And it was never in doubt... :00hour


I've heard a LOT of reasons for picking UAB+7.5 on a few diff sites, I just wonder why the line hasn't adjusted... if everyone loves em sooo much?

I don't know.. but it's keeping me from playing it.. for now

GL Bason!

 

[BASON]

Thanks Lord.

The line has started to move already. It is off the 7.5 and see -7 with juice now. I expect it to move once people start betting it. Most of these early bad games do not get serious action until the day of the game. I will be very surprised if this does not move down to at least 6 and 7.5 to 6 is a big move since it moves through a key number.

Much of my enthusiasm for this game is also based on the UAB story. Besides the championship games, I can not find a more motivated team in the bowl games. A victory would cap a great story. It is a bonus that they are playing a MAC team.

 

[BASON]

San Diego St. -6 -115

I will have more on this later, but trying to post games as I play them. This is one where I expect the line to go to at least 7 so I wanted to grab it now. I am also opening a few teasers with them as I do not think they will lose this game. Love academy programs but this is not a good match up for Army in my opinion.

 

[flapjack]

San Diego St. -6 -115

I will have more on this later, but trying to post games as I play them. This is one where I expect the line to go to at least 7 so I wanted to grab it now. I am also opening a few teasers with them as I do not think they will lose this game. Love academy programs but this is not a good match up for Army in my opinion.

I was really high on SDSU until I read what IE posted. A motivated SDSU should shut down Army and run wild on them. But, reading between the lines of Long's quotes, makes me nervous. Talking of how if they'd won the MWC title they could have had better control over where they went. Talking about the rushing record being top of mind. I'm not sure the SDSU is not disappointed to be playing in this game after falling short of what could've been a ny's 6 bowl game. That could spell trouble vs a less talented but disciplined and motivated team.

Impossible to know what the motivation will be, so I'm inclined to pass.

 

[BASON]

Appreciate the input Flapjack. Motivation is always key in these early games. While the coach may not be that motivated here, I think the players will be. While it is an honor to play the academies, most do not want to lose to them. SD St. takes pride in its running defense and I do not think they will let Army run all over them and that is the only way Army can win since they can not pass the ball. They also want Penny to get as many yards as possible so I think they will be motivated to move the ball on the ground. If they show up, they should win and cover this game.

 

[flapjack]

Maybe I'm reading too much into his quotes. But, might be a good in-game bet. Pretty confident Army will show. If SDSU does as well, should be a perfect match up for them.

 

[BASON]

Can't argue with that. Halftime plays in bowls are usually a smart way to play and have been a good money maker for me over the years. You get a lot of second halves that look a lot like the first half. Last night was a perfect example.

 

[BASON]

I was going to lay off tonight but putting in a play on FIU at +7.5 -125 before it moves off of 7. I think FIU is the more motivated team.

UAB down to 6.5 in most places. I think it will continue to inch down.

 

[BASON]

FIU looks pathetic without their QB. Looks like they have no chance with this midget. I hate in game betting but I grabbed Temple -10.5 after the last series.. All Temple has to do is run the ball and they should win easily.

Can get the same line at halftime, Temple -3.5. Like it to buy out the FIU game play. Will risk the small middle given FIU's QB situation.

 

[BASON]

Don't think I can get this UAB money back with any kind of halftime bet, so looks like I will just take it up the ass. Don't mind being wrong but hate it when I really like a game and am completely wrong. UAB looks like a FCS school that is tired and has already given up. Doesn't do much for my confidence. Bowl season going pretty much identical to regular season, just can not get over the hump.

Going to the gym and hoping for a second half miracle!!

 

[BASON]

Charlie Strong is one bad coach (and I do not think much of Kinsbury either). I will never for the life of me understand why these coaches with shot gun offenses do not put in a short yardage offense. I know I have said this many times, but if you can not teach a QB to take a snap or sneak the ball, what good are you. Instead, you have the ball on the one and start the play from a standing start at the 5. No matter what anyone says, I will never understand this. Sorry, I actually bet TT but this type of play drives me nuts.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

They should have been called for grounding on that last drive and TT prob wins. Horrible no-call.