Ok, here we go.... ... I must have had a LOT of time on my hands on Fri. cause, just for kicks, for the Darby I did the comprehensive ratings thingy that I do when capping Philly hosses. What a project that was, FLUCK, esp. considering that this rating sys. is SPECIFICALLY made for finding PHILLY dirt bag wieners. BTW, it took years to make. AND - well over and hour to get through it for the 20 Derby horses today.
I had to leave some factors out cause the Philly sys. takes jockey, TRAINERS, and OWNERS into consideration cause I know them REALLY well at Philly. I don't go by the stats. either... . I GO BY WHAT I'VE SEEN. F'renstance, lets' see.. ah, let's say jockey Edwin Rivera; he has poor stats but I am sure that, given the right horse, HE IS THE RIDER I WANT ON MY PLICK. Only Carmouch is higer rated as far as I'm concerned. Also, the combination of certain jockeys with certain owners is also used for Philly ratings. I don't know about EACH of the those connection for the Derby hosses so I didn't use any of this stuff, except for jockey, for the Derby. .
BUT, I added something to take it's place for the Darby.... it's that lifetime starts/wins/place/show/earnings thingy. The numbers go into an equation that SHOULD represent a horse's class and I've found that to be useful info. for stakes races, ESP. big stakes ($) races. The resulting figure you get after doing that math means nothing for tracks like Philly so I don't use that when capping Philly nags.
There are a few other factors that I use for Philly that I did not use for the Derby types as well. I ain't getting into that here cause I've had enough "work" for one day.
Let's see what happens with this experiment.............
Here's the Ratings I came up with:
2,3 - tied for Top Rating
8 - clearly rated 2nd. Personally, I believe this one is the best horse in the race today.
12 - this is one that I'm really glad the numbers cruncher came up with. This horse just may mow ALL their asses down in the long Churchill stretch run, ESP. considering all the early speed that will be battling each other early on.
That's it.
The race reminds me of a Breeders Cup race, you know - almost ALL clones and that is BAD, BAD news. But, what the hell, it's an all American showdown of the best 3 year olds and only comes around once a year. I'll be doing this :
No. 8 top/bot exactas with about 6 others
Nos. 3,12, 15.19 each to WIN. Any one wins - I win or lose very little. Although I'm not sure if that goes for the no. 15, Frosted. There's too much attention being paid to that one and I'm afraid it may get bet down pretty heavily.
and .....
shooting for the jackpot with trifectas, 2,3,8/3,8,12/2,3,18,19. That no. 19, Upstart, really worries me, but ya can't play them all. I didn't put the no. 12 on top cause if that one wins, I WILL win.
Much more confident about some of the Philly dirt bombs running today.
Enjoy the waces.
I had to leave some factors out cause the Philly sys. takes jockey, TRAINERS, and OWNERS into consideration cause I know them REALLY well at Philly. I don't go by the stats. either... . I GO BY WHAT I'VE SEEN. F'renstance, lets' see.. ah, let's say jockey Edwin Rivera; he has poor stats but I am sure that, given the right horse, HE IS THE RIDER I WANT ON MY PLICK. Only Carmouch is higer rated as far as I'm concerned. Also, the combination of certain jockeys with certain owners is also used for Philly ratings. I don't know about EACH of the those connection for the Derby hosses so I didn't use any of this stuff, except for jockey, for the Derby. .
BUT, I added something to take it's place for the Darby.... it's that lifetime starts/wins/place/show/earnings thingy. The numbers go into an equation that SHOULD represent a horse's class and I've found that to be useful info. for stakes races, ESP. big stakes ($) races. The resulting figure you get after doing that math means nothing for tracks like Philly so I don't use that when capping Philly nags.
There are a few other factors that I use for Philly that I did not use for the Derby types as well. I ain't getting into that here cause I've had enough "work" for one day.
Let's see what happens with this experiment.............
Here's the Ratings I came up with:
2,3 - tied for Top Rating
8 - clearly rated 2nd. Personally, I believe this one is the best horse in the race today.
12 - this is one that I'm really glad the numbers cruncher came up with. This horse just may mow ALL their asses down in the long Churchill stretch run, ESP. considering all the early speed that will be battling each other early on.
That's it.
The race reminds me of a Breeders Cup race, you know - almost ALL clones and that is BAD, BAD news. But, what the hell, it's an all American showdown of the best 3 year olds and only comes around once a year. I'll be doing this :
No. 8 top/bot exactas with about 6 others
Nos. 3,12, 15.19 each to WIN. Any one wins - I win or lose very little. Although I'm not sure if that goes for the no. 15, Frosted. There's too much attention being paid to that one and I'm afraid it may get bet down pretty heavily.
and .....
shooting for the jackpot with trifectas, 2,3,8/3,8,12/2,3,18,19. That no. 19, Upstart, really worries me, but ya can't play them all. I didn't put the no. 12 on top cause if that one wins, I WILL win.
Much more confident about some of the Philly dirt bombs running today.
Enjoy the waces.
