CFB WEEK 6 Spreasheet picks con't

[Jimboski]

Gonna give it a go and post more SS (spreadsheet) picks again this week. This week I"m gonna post it's 10 top picks and maybe that will attract a bit more interest/comments.

First week of play was last week (4-2-1); normally I start running the sheet after week 3 because the SHEET needs enough data to make the picks that have some foundation (data) behind them. I waited an extra week this year because opening week (and even many games in week 2) matchups/stats meant NOTHING... too many mismatches. With about 3 1/2 weeks of game stats in it's belly - it should "spit out" some wieners this week. It takes into consideration EACH game a team played and adjusts each team's stats based on the data it had vs. EACH team that played the one it's analyzing "today". It's one complicated MONSTER, alright. Feeding it takes DAYS, not hours

Remember, the dang computer doesn't care what you say about it or it's picks.... . . it just sits there and stares at ya/.. LOL So all comments are welcomed to keep it going here -

Penn St. -3

VT -7: SS likes them again this week. This (me) "sucker" has done just fine with parlays (ONLY 2 and or 3 teamers; very rarely a 4 bagger). This one gets a "shave" down to -6 and gets used as a PS .. .Parlay Stuffer. I'll try to find the time to post a few if somebody is curious about them. Looks like I'll have only two 2-teamers going for me this week so far. Quire a few more single, side plays fosho.

ARMY +12: Wrote about this team in my post last week. Sheet picked this one again this week.

TROY -6.5: Be careful with the Mickey Mouse teams!

TENN +10: vs. GA :0023
Ah, I just can't go along with this one. BTW, there's no way I bet against the "Monster Sheet". That makes this game a - No Play.

CUSE +14: NOT recommending anything, but, just a reminder - this thang has a way of picking huge Money Liners. once in awhile.

GA. Tech +6

Wash St. -2: Another one of the "looks too EZ" jobbies?

Sooners -9

Hmm.. that's 9. May add no. 10 if it comes up with another one with a high rating.

G.L. whatever you're playing.

 

[The Universe]

Thanks for the info Jimbo!

 

[genosays]

A few of these won't be too popular (Tenn, GTECH), but usually those are the ones that do well .... thanks for sharing.

 

[Jimboski]

reply

reply

THANKS for letting me know, Universe and geno, that you're both interested in the SHEET's picks. Serves as a reminder for me to post next week's picks.

It gives a rating to the HOME team asfaras it beating the spread. I feed it the scores after the games are played and it takes into consideration how it did and uses that info., as well as plenty of other things, for the next time either of the two teams play. The idea is to try getting it to LEARN more and more about each team as the weeks go by and how it expects it to do vs. THE OPPONENT it faces for the upcoming week.

I've been using it for around 6 yrs. and get a feel for it and I'm really liking what I see for today's games.

We'll see.

I mentioned that I'll post it's 10th best pick. Well, I prob. shouldn't even post it cause there's a good sized gap between it's 9th and 10th "bestest" so I won't be on it and not going to count it when I post this week's results. Since you're interested - it's Rutgers (HAH, wouldn't ya know it - that's my alma mater). I AM counting the Tenn (ATS) pick even though I ain't biting and that's because the SHEET gave it a high rating.

Good Luck today.

 

[Jimboski]

BTW, I am using a Ga. Tech moola liner (+200) in one of my two teamer sucker bets. I really like this play., geno.

 

[DuckDogs]

Good luck Jimbo. Like that army play:toast:

 

[Giambi-Juice]

Hey Jimbo,

Just wanted to let you know that I am following your info and am very interested in your sheets picks.

I have really slowed down on betting this year and only play 2-3 games on a Saturday. So I would love for your sheets picks to lead me in a 2/3 direction at least!!

I do not see many of the Mad Jack Handicappers on this forum from years past that I use to follow? I know you from the horse racing forum and have been looking for a football go to guy this year.

Thanks again,

 

[pd1]

Good luck Jimbo.

 

[SixFive]

Getem, Jim!!

 

[Jimboski]

LONG wrap up

LONG wrap up

Think it went 3 and 6 this week? I don't even keep tract of that; I only track the ole bankaroo ($)... and it sho did lose a little weight since last week. It's still a "middle weight" but will be a "light weight" if next week goes like this week's.

A little bit mo about the SS
The Sheet does the most comprehensive and advanced statistical analysis toward predicting a game's results that I could make. I'll put you ALL to sleep if I go into too much detail, but the methodology is to ADJUST the matchup stats that most of us use to try to figure out the strengths/weakness of the two teams at hand. Basically, it looks at the nos. (like running yds. for/against, same for passiing, no. of turnovvers, total yards gain per game, ... a LOT of stuff like that for EACH team that the team in question played. The hard part is to come up with the right multiplier that increases or decreases each of the team's individual stats. And that requires the use of heavy duty correlation and regression analysis for it to come up with the factor that it creates that gets used to get to the true figures for the team in question. Basically, the SHEET makes it's OWN matchup figures.

This year, I started it off by putting in the regular matchup stats from Week 4, easily found on the Internet, for almost every A-1 college team. Now, the SHEET starts figuring the ADJUSTED figures by looking how the team did VS. THE COMPETITION IT FACED EACH PRIOR WEEK. I "tell" it to void out any games that were total mismatches. The results are HOPEFULLY a much better matchup sheet than the one you get from the internet and it uses that adjusted matchup to figure out "today's" game. How it does that is another LONG chapter that I'll spare yas from reading for now.

Just to simplify this stuff .. let's take Texas for example... now, for this week, the internet will tellyas that Texas had a NET TOTAL RUSHING YDS.PER GAME OF 192.2. But after doing the detailed analysis of the opponent's defensive strengths/weaknesses each week so far - the Sheet generated a factor (multiplier) of -0.19 for this category (it's multiplier for say.. "time of possession" would be a different no.). That means that it "believes" the TRUE no. for this stat. needed to be REDUCED by 19%, making it 155.7.

Yeah, I know .. . . I went into TOO MUCH detail.

How it goes from it's generated matchup figures to picking an ATS wiener would be a book, not a novel like I wrote here and I ain't gonna tackle explaining that.

Of course, using scientific type math stuff to predict a sporting event outcome is really ridiculous cause sports are not exact sciences. But I can't think of a better way except for maybe CLOSELY WATCHNG as many games as ya can. I'll get into that part and how I employ that part with the no. crunching if somebody wonders about that part. I hope nobody does LOL.

Sorry bout the length of this "chapter"; I get carried away when writing about the MONSTER. On to next week.

Oh, I see a couple of MJers that liked this spreadsheet stuff from the time I started posting it. I know SixFive is a solid SpreadSheet fan. Great to see they're still around.