Chalk dominated in wild card weekend....

[Destructor D]

I think you're crazy if you really think it continues. I know the home teams had the week off and one of them is still a dog this weekend. Other than maybe Ravens and Patriots having a tough time taking chalk now.

Love Giants +8.5... not only did they win @ GBay in 2007 season, but they're defensive line is dominating right now and will give Rodgers hell. GBay has serious offensive lines issues and they only were -6.5 @ NYG a few weeks ago. Anything with NYG +7.5 or more seems like a gift. Packers will be happy to win this game and Pierre-paul and Osiumeria-sp? will cause complete havoc for Rodgers... he doesn't like pressure, but the Giants might win this game SU... I'll take the points with the extremely confident team.

49'ers +4 (-120) ... Saints are a different team on the road and now face the NFL's best defense in their backyard... would not go big on SF, but really like this number. So if SF is on the road, they're +11.5 or more? Seriously you give teams about 3 to 4 points being at home and u probably give Saints 5 at home based on the fact they're 9-0 ATS at home. Love the 49'ers, Harbaugh, and their sick defense in this spot. Think they either win or at least cover.

Denver +14 (-120) - I know NE won 41-23 in Denver and everyone will back NE in this spot. However, NE isn't that good defensively and if Tebow can look anything close to how he looked last weekend, I see a 27-17 type game. Denver has the far better defense and should be able to run the ball against this weak NE team. See Denver staying close, but at least buy to 14 points for safety. Not the best game to best but 24-10 sounds about the worst beating possible.

Houston +7.5 - Waiting for the line to grown as nobody thinks Yates will do well. However, the Texans have a great defense and will give Flacco trouble. Thinking Baltimore overlooks the wounded Texans and struggles, but wins a very close game. Andre Johnson is a matchup nightmare and Foster is good enough to give B-more extreme problems. Line would be about 3.5 to 4 with Schaub at QB, but is over a TD which gives Houston value.

Well GLTA... going to be a doggy-dog weekend... :00hour

 

[Destructor D]

Once again, all 4 home teams covered... thinking road teams come to roar other than the public chalk Saints. GL whatever u decide... loving dogs myself... bet them up for me!

 

[ldabdou]

No shit. I'm trippin on that sf line. Beggin for No $ nobody believes in niners but when push comes to shove they seem to find a way to get er done. Plus they r playing confident right now and the key is they don't turn the ball over!

 

[bleedingpurple]

I agree to everything except the packers, I will not bet against them in lambeau!! Actually the Packers are healthy right now and I don't care what happened on 20007 this team is much more explosive than that one! I hope you are right about the ends getting to Rodgers but he is going to get rid of the ball fast and they have the offensive game plan to turn around giant d backs!! Look at the game this year, pack moved at will and then again last year the giants were buried there!

Giants will have to score a ton of points so if you do take the Giants , it is a definite overs game cause the pack get at least 31 at home if not more!

Go GIANTS!!!

 

[Livin'tillthEnd]

I think you're crazy if you really think it continues. I know the home teams had the week off and one of them is still a dog this weekend. Other than maybe Ravens and Patriots having a tough time taking chalk now.

Love Giants +8.5... not only did they win @ GBay in 2007 season, but they're defensive line is dominating right now and will give Rodgers hell. GBay has serious offensive lines issues and they only were -6.5 @ NYG a few weeks ago. Anything with NYG +7.5 or more seems like a gift. Packers will be happy to win this game and Pierre-paul and Osiumeria-sp? will cause complete havoc for Rodgers... he doesn't like pressure, but the Giants might win this game SU... I'll take the points with the extremely confident team.

49'ers +4 (-120) ... Saints are a different team on the road and now face the NFL's best defense in their backyard... would not go big on SF, but really like this number. So if SF is on the road, they're +11.5 or more? Seriously you give teams about 3 to 4 points being at home and u probably give Saints 5 at home based on the fact they're 9-0 ATS at home. Love the 49'ers, Harbaugh, and their sick defense in this spot. Think they either win or at least cover.

Denver +14 (-120) - I know NE won 41-23 in Denver and everyone will back NE in this spot. However, NE isn't that good defensively and if Tebow can look anything close to how he looked last weekend, I see a 27-17 type game. Denver has the far better defense and should be able to run the ball against this weak NE team. See Denver staying close, but at least buy to 14 points for safety. Not the best game to best but 24-10 sounds about the worst beating possible.

Houston +7.5 - Waiting for the line to grown as nobody thinks Yates will do well. However, the Texans have a great defense and will give Flacco trouble. Thinking Baltimore overlooks the wounded Texans and struggles, but wins a very close game. Andre Johnson is a matchup nightmare and Foster is good enough to give B-more extreme problems. Line would be about 3.5 to 4 with Schaub at QB, but is over a TD which gives Houston value.

Well GLTA... going to be a doggy-dog weekend... :00hour

def like niners...better def, playing on grass, n.o has had some poor showings on the road. Wouldn't mind another point or so w/ niners if we can get it

 

[IE]

NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 52 of the last 66 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced). But at least one top conference seed has met defeat in five of the past seasons, including both (Atlanta and New England) a year ago. So no one has to warn the Patriots about potential banana peels this weekend, or the Packers, either, considering how they knocked out Atlanta a year ago.

Also worth noting is how lopsided results continue to recur in Division Round games, as more than half since 1975 have been decided by double-digit margins. Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered solidly at 57% in the Division Round since '75. "Totals" trends have been less pronounced, though all four in the round went "over" a year ago.

Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" below begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.

CATEGORY RESULT

Favorites vs. line... 73-67-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up... 99-44
Favored by 0-3 points... 8-14-1
Favored by 31/2-61/2 points... 26-22-1
Favored by 7-91/2 points... 26-19
Favored by 10-131/2 points... 11-8
Favored by 14 points or more... 3-3-1
Home teams straight up... 101-43
Home teams vs. spread... 75-66-3
Home favorites vs. spread... 71-64-3
Home underdogs vs. spread... 3-2
Home picks vs. spread... 1-0
Over/under (since 1986)... 53-47

MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points... 34
4-6 points... 11
7-10 points... 25
11-13 points... 11
14 points or more... 63

found this on the goldsheet.
still think best way to win is to handicap each game individually on its own merits.

 

[ImNext1000]

No shit. I'm trippin on that sf line. Beggin for No $ nobody believes in niners but when push comes to shove they seem to find a way to get er done. Plus they r playing confident right now and the key is they don't turn the ball over!

Exactly, if people think Brees is going to throw for 400 yards in our backyard they are crazy, SF wins it 27-24

:toast: :toast: :toast:

 

[MadJack]

I think you're crazy if you really think it continues. I know the home teams had the week off and one of them is still a dog this weekend. Other than maybe Ravens and Patriots having a tough time taking chalk now.

Love Giants +8.5... not only did they win @ GBay in 2007 season, but they're defensive line is dominating right now and will give Rodgers hell. GBay has serious offensive lines issues and they only were -6.5 @ NYG a few weeks ago. Anything with NYG +7.5 or more seems like a gift. Packers will be happy to win this game and Pierre-paul and Osiumeria-sp? will cause complete havoc for Rodgers... he doesn't like pressure, but the Giants might win this game SU... I'll take the points with the extremely confident team.

49'ers +4 (-120) ... Saints are a different team on the road and now face the NFL's best defense in their backyard... would not go big on SF, but really like this number. So if SF is on the road, they're +11.5 or more? Seriously you give teams about 3 to 4 points being at home and u probably give Saints 5 at home based on the fact they're 9-0 ATS at home. Love the 49'ers, Harbaugh, and their sick defense in this spot. Think they either win or at least cover.

Denver +14 (-120) - I know NE won 41-23 in Denver and everyone will back NE in this spot. However, NE isn't that good defensively and if Tebow can look anything close to how he looked last weekend, I see a 27-17 type game. Denver has the far better defense and should be able to run the ball against this weak NE team. See Denver staying close, but at least buy to 14 points for safety. Not the best game to best but 24-10 sounds about the worst beating possible.

Houston +7.5 - Waiting for the line to grown as nobody thinks Yates will do well. However, the Texans have a great defense and will give Flacco trouble. Thinking Baltimore overlooks the wounded Texans and struggles, but wins a very close game. Andre Johnson is a matchup nightmare and Foster is good enough to give B-more extreme problems. Line would be about 3.5 to 4 with Schaub at QB, but is over a TD which gives Houston value.

Well GLTA... going to be a doggy-dog weekend... :00hour

Agree with everything you posted. Good post :0074

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

if u took this mentaility in baseball last yr u lost alot of money.....there was a about 2 months where favs were hitting and hitting hard....As for this weekend the only dog 2 dogs that have a good shot at covering or winning outright are 49ers and houston,the other 2 should be blowouts IMO

 

[cash]

if u took this mentaility in baseball last yr u lost alot of money.....there was a about 2 months where favs were hitting and hitting hard....As for this weekend the only dog 2 dogs that have a good shot at covering or winning outright are 49ers and houston,the other 2 should be blowouts IMO

+1

 

[johnnyb.]

if u took this mentaility in baseball last yr u lost alot of money.....there was a about 2 months where favs were hitting and hitting hard....As for this weekend the only dog 2 dogs that have a good shot at covering or winning outright are 49ers and houston,the other 2 should be blowouts IMO

No need to bring other sports, if my aunt had nuts she would be my UNCLE!

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

maybe ur aunt does have nuts u shoud check :0003

 

[heleanth]

You guys know my aunt?

Packers win by double digits. Unless Eli can put up more than31.

 

[Four Corners]

I personally like if the queen had balls she'd be the King!! :142smilie Packers game will see lots of points

 

[Old School]

Favorites straight up... 99-44

99 out of 143....okopcorn2

Home teams straight up... 101-43

:0002

 

[Dr Feelgood]

Can't see the Pat's scoring any less than 28....Pitt was soooo gimpy and they put up 23....I don't feel as confident this week as I did last cuz I know Denver will have to score 30 to win...depending on weather this will be a huge over play for me...

 

[giambi]

I heard on another forum that the point spread actually only comes into play in like 16% of games I've never did the research but it was true last weekend........this has really helped me betting I think people get afraid of numbers or read to much into them

 

[ldabdou]

I heard on another forum that the point spread actually only comes into play in like 16% of games I've never did the research but it was true last weekend........this has really helped me betting I think people get afraid of numbers or read to much into them

Thus is the reason why I hardly ever buy pts. My theory is if you feel the need to buy pts you must not like the game that much or you thnks it's going to be too close. If thats the case why bet it and sweat it out giving up less value...:shrug: