Championship games- week long discussion

[the addict]

As long as everyone can play nice, we should be able to share some good info....old school always has some good insight...

My first thoughts: usually there is at least one or two teams remaining in this round that are oriented around their defenses


Last year Denver and Carolina
The year before Seattle and pats
Niners
Baltimore
Every year there's one or two


This year it's truly different

The league has been evolving into a offense first league but this is truly the peak of its evolution

Packers- no defense
Atl- average defense
Pitt- average at best
New england- the best of the bunch but still not elite like we are used to seeing at this point in season

So for me it comes down to the run games and who can control the clock and limit the time their defenses are on the field and keeping them fresh

Atl- huge edge to their backfield- this may be one of the top 1-2 punches we've ever seen...and both can catch the ball out of the backfield

Pitt- best rb in game- the pats will have to account for bell...and when they do, Ben and AB and Eli rogers and Jesse James, etc. Will have chances to make plays....

I also like pitts o-line and ATL o-line slightly more then the opponents .....


I'm probably leaning playing ATL -4 & PITT +6

I honestly feel that the public will back Rodgers and brady here...I don't care what our forum experts say....Rodgers as a dog and Brady at home...both are going to get majority of love from the average bettor


ATL/GB over looks like a winner as well...ATL is going to be in the 30's easily...rodgers will get his as well....thinking 38-28 final


Thoughts?


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[the addict]

I'm thinking the pats line may climb to 7....can't imagine the public betting Pitt at 5.5/6....

Not sure what to expect on the GB/ATL line...I'm still convinced the public will back Rodgers as a dog...

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[CincyKid]

I'm thinking the pats line may climb to 7....can't imagine the public betting Pitt at 5.5/6....

Not sure what to expect on the GB/ATL line...I'm still convinced the public will back Rodgers as a dog...

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Biggest play of the weekend will be that Gb/Atl over

 

[Old School]

Biggest play of the weekend will be that Gb/Atl over

61...:scared:scared:scared:scared:scared:scared:scared

well if they hadn't opened it at 59' it would have gotten past that in a day anyways..looks high to me..may tease it up to 74 with the dogs[GB+17' & PITT+18'] and keep an open spot for the SB:00x32

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Time	Pointspread	Total	Away ML	Home ML
01/15/2017 11:23 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 EVEN	60o05	+175	-195
01/15/2017 11:26 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 -05	59.5
01/15/2017 11:29 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15
01/15/2017 11:33 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4	59.5o15
01/15/2017 11:38 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15
01/15/2017 11:41 PM EST		59.5
01/15/2017 11:44 PM EST			+171	-190
01/15/2017 11:53 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -14
01/15/2017 11:56 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15
01/16/2017 3:50 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -07
01/16/2017 3:56 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5
01/16/2017 3:59 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 -05
01/16/2017 8:38 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4		+170	-200
01/16/2017 9:05 AM EST			+167	-197
01/16/2017 9:08 AM EST			+165	-185
01/16/2017 12:08 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15		+170	-200
01/16/2017 1:32 PM EST		60.5
01/16/2017 2:11 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 -05
01/16/2017 2:14 PM EST			+175	-205
01/16/2017 2:32 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -5		+185	-215
01/16/2017 2:35 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -5 -15		+190	-230
01/16/2017 2:38 PM EST		61	+181	-210

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[the addict]

You don't think the high # will scare ppl

Like old school said

Teasing up to 74 is a mighty task

61...:scared:scared:scared:scared:scared:scared:scared

well if they hadn't opened it at 59' it would have gotten past that in a day anyways..looks high to me..may tease it up to 74 with the dogs[GB+17' & PITT+18'] and keep an open spot for the SB:00x32

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Time	Pointspread	Total	Away ML	Home ML
01/15/2017 11:23 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 EVEN	60o05	+175	-195
01/15/2017 11:26 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 -05	59.5
01/15/2017 11:29 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15
01/15/2017 11:33 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4	59.5o15
01/15/2017 11:38 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15
01/15/2017 11:41 PM EST		59.5
01/15/2017 11:44 PM EST			+171	-190
01/15/2017 11:53 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -14
01/15/2017 11:56 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15
01/16/2017 3:50 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -07
01/16/2017 3:56 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5
01/16/2017 3:59 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 -05
01/16/2017 8:38 AM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4		+170	-200
01/16/2017 9:05 AM EST			+167	-197
01/16/2017 9:08 AM EST			+165	-185
01/16/2017 12:08 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4 -15		+170	-200
01/16/2017 1:32 PM EST		60.5
01/16/2017 2:11 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -4.5 -05
01/16/2017 2:14 PM EST			+175	-205
01/16/2017 2:32 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -5		+185	-215
01/16/2017 2:35 PM EST	ATLANTA FALCONS -5 -15		+190	-230
01/16/2017 2:38 PM EST		61	+181	-210

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Biggest play of the weekend will be that Gb/Atl over

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[Old School]

well documented and beat to death that Pats played an easy schedule...

that saidxstop.........they still only gave up an average of 15 a game...

this 50' is a little tall there as well...Steelers have played some solid D on the road as well..

last 6 have allowed 21 or under..that effort followed the game at Miami where they were torched for 30

But I must be crazy to see these games as having Defense..

In a Quarterback driven league we have 4 of the best ready to sling it..

:00x32

 

[the addict]

Old school

What about these do you like

Steelers +18.5
Pack +17
Pack over 47
Steelers over 37.5

I don't do many teasers

But 13 pts on all those look tempting


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[Old School]

Old school

What about these do you like

Steelers +18.5 .............. 3 unanswered scores don't beat you
Based on the TD and PAT you can survive back to back TD's and a successful FG and still win the teased leg of the 4 teamer..
and on top of that ...one of the teams will obviously score first...If ya catch the opening score w/theSteelers kicking at least a FG ..you're up 21' and 3 unanswered TD's DON'T BEAT YA..
Using the DOG in what should be a close in games of this magnitude ...the 13' is supposed to be gravy..Throughout the regular season I try to seek out the best side and then tease...With a full slate you catch certain good teams at home and use them with almost no fear of the backdoor.
I can see Steelers winning this game outright ...hard to beat Brady there..but maybe


Pack +17..gotta dig into this some more. The thing I ask myself is this..Who is more likely to blow out the other. As good as Aaron is..that Dome will be even louder than this past Div. game w/Dallas...and Atl coaching will stay w/the run if it calls for it...unlike out smart the room Cowboys coaching staff..7 more passes than rushes...:facepalm:

Pack over 47...23 apiece gets ya the W in this leg..what I don't like is that the total is off by 6 to me..
But as my close friend and gambling buddy of some 40 years would.."Mike they set that number for a reason they didn't pull it out of their ass."..Domes eliminate weather..So if ya like the number is a 13 pointer...it's dead on more than not..


Steelers over 37.5...Weather permitting ...ya really want to catch this at 37 if you can..probably wouldn't need it but great books push the ties in Superteasers..and a fistfight this weather sucks 20-17 don't bust ya..will look further...neither one of these teams have a great passing D ...they stuff the run to set up their formulated covers ..........


I don't do many teasers

But 13 pts on all those look tempting...they do...but what happens in the playoffs is that the teaser menu is shrunk so damn bad that the gimmies are harder to find..


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:00x32.gotta lotta time to dig and dig........


19 weeks of crunching numbers and watching some or all of every game...

And still I am never certain....real close...but as you know..there are no stone cold locks...just guesses with a lot of mustard..

 

[BuffaloBill]

If I may chime in here, I have an open 13 point teaser from last week. Have 2 spots to fill.

Right now I can get get both home teams +7.5 points, and that is the way I am leaning. Going the other way and taking all of those points is pretty tempting though. I have to admit, this is a tough week for me to figure out. As Old School pointed out, there are not many options this week, as opposed to the regular season where we have many choices.

I can see both of the home teams winning in a blowout, although unlikely. But I can't see the road teams winning by more than a touchdown.

For me the 7.5 at home in the playoffs just sounds too good to pass up.

Still going to give it some thought though before I lock anything in.

This teaser is a HUGE wager for me, so I want to think about this some more.

Good discussion.

 

[Old School]

If I may chime in here, I have an open 13 point teaser from last week. Have 2 spots to fill.

Right now I can get get both home teams +7.5 points, and that is the way I am leaning. Going the other way and taking all of those points is pretty tempting though. I have to admit, this is a tough week for me to figure out. As Old School pointed out, there are not many options this week, as opposed to the regular season where we have many choices.

I can see both of the home teams winning in a blowout, although unlikely. But I can't see the road teams winning by more than a touchdown.

For me the 7.5 at home in the playoffs just sounds too good to pass up.

Still going to give it some thought though before I lock anything in.

This teaser is a HUGE wager for me, so I want to think about this some more.

Good discussion.

hit that bad boy Bill..........

 

[ticket casher]

I'm all over gb, and new england.
Rodgers outsmarts Atl over 60 min.
Love pats too.
Brady will light up that secondary. If Alex smith could of seen all those guys roaming free all night pit would of gotten killed against k.c.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

It's been since '13 since any away/road team has won in the Championship round, home teams are 6-0 L6 and 4-2 ATS.

'13 Ravens won @ NE and SF won @ Atlanta, Atlanta's last championship round game.

Revenge teams have an edge in this round as well. Green Bay lost earlier in the year to Atlanta @ Atlanta by 1 pt and Pittsburgh got beat at home by NE by 9.

Atlanta with highest scoring offense.

Just some tidbit info.

 

[motley plays]

Patriots got a wake up call from Houston . Offense played terrible . Brady tossed a couple of schoolyard football throws that he lucked out on ! If Houston had any type of offense they would of won!


The media hype gets nauseating up here! If I wasn't a Patriot fan I'd probably hate us to!

 

[Pound4Pound#1]

As long as everyone can play nice, we should be able to share some good info....old school always has some good insight...

My first thoughts: usually there is at least one or two teams remaining in this round that are oriented around their defenses


Last year Denver and Carolina
The year before Seattle and pats
Niners
Baltimore
Every year there's one or two


This year it's truly different

The league has been evolving into a offense first league but this is truly the peak of its evolution

Packers- no defense
Atl- average defense
Pitt- average at best
New england- the best of the bunch but still not elite like we are used to seeing at this point in season

So for me it comes down to the run games and who can control the clock and limit the time their defenses are on the field and keeping them fresh

Atl- huge edge to their backfield- this may be one of the top 1-2 punches we've ever seen...and both can catch the ball out of the backfield

Pitt- best rb in game- the pats will have to account for bell...and when they do, Ben and AB and Eli rogers and Jesse James, etc. Will have chances to make plays....

I also like pitts o-line and ATL o-line slightly more then the opponents .....


I'm probably leaning playing ATL -4 & PITT +6

I honestly feel that the public will back Rodgers and brady here...I don't care what our forum experts say....Rodgers as a dog and Brady at home...both are going to get majority of love from the average bettor


ATL/GB over looks like a winner as well...ATL is going to be in the 30's easily...rodgers will get his as well....thinking 38-28 final


Thoughts?


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I agree this year is different. Playoff and championship football has always been about defense and a strong run game. None of these teams are equal to Denver last year or the ravens from a couple years back. However I don't believe public betting has any influence at this point in the season. Public dogs hit at an alarming rate from the divisional round thru the Super Bowl. At this point it's all about what's going to be most marketable and profitable for the NFL. There is no bigger Super Bowl with the 4 teams remaining then a Brady vs Rodgers game and if you ask me that's exactly what we're going to get with Rodgers hoisting the trophy in the end. Get your 5 to 1 odds now

Side note:

Can't see Brady losing two straight AFC championship games

Atlanta? Fun exciting and full of talent but zero marketability

What the hell do I know anyway

 

[WildBillPicks7]

I agree this year is different. Playoff and championship football has always been about defense and a strong run game. None of these teams are equal to Denver last year or the ravens from a couple years back. However I don't believe public betting has any influence at this point in the season. Public dogs hit at an alarming rate from the divisional round thru the Super Bowl. At this point it's all about what's going to be most marketable and profitable for the NFL. There is no bigger Super Bowl with the 4 teams remaining then a Brady vs Rodgers game and if you ask me that's exactly what we're going to get with Rodgers hoisting the trophy in the end. Get your 5 to 1 odds now

Side note:

Can't see Brady losing two straight AFC championship games

Atlanta? Fun exciting and full of talent but zero marketability

What the hell do I know anyway

Agree on marketability of Atlanta, however, this year's team a bit better than when DeBerg was QB and last time they got to the Super Bowl as well and their Conference Championship loss to SF.

Green Bay has momentum, Falcons have the home/noise factor and a better overall kicking game.

New England has better kicking game and overall vet experience, Steelers have Big Ben who's going for 4th Super Bowl game, where he's 2-1, lost to Green Bay in 2011. Antonio Brown will get more attention than he got from KC.

Should be interesting, right now most $ has been on GB and Pittsburgh/NE is 50/50, Over 58 1/2 took a pounding in GB/ATL and has since come down slightly from the 61 it peaked at. Under is getting play on NE/Pitt game, line seems to be off by 7 pts.

 

[Blitz]

For what it's worth, Pats Defense let up the fewest points of any team in the NFL.

Also, they did not allow a RB to rush for 100 yards this season.

:shrug::0008

 

[Pound4Pound#1]

Agree on marketability of Atlanta, however, this year's team a bit better than when DeBerg was QB and last time they got to the Super Bowl as well and their Conference Championship loss to SF.

Green Bay has momentum, Falcons have the home/noise factor and a better overall kicking game.

New England has better kicking game and overall vet experience, Steelers have Big Ben who's going for 4th Super Bowl game, where he's 2-1, lost to Green Bay in 2011. Antonio Brown will get more attention than he got from KC.

Should be interesting, right now most $ has been on GB and Pittsburgh/NE is 50/50, Over 58 1/2 took a pounding in GB/ATL and has since come down slightly from the 61 it peaked at. Under is getting play on NE/Pitt game, line seems to be off by 7 pts.

Good points..a lot more detailed than my point of view. Pitt vs gb wouldn't be bad either.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

For what it's worth, Pats Defense let up the fewest points of any team in the NFL.

Also, they did not allow a RB to rush for 100 yards this season.

:shrug::0008

Great points Blitz, also have to add in Dion Lewis was out for a good part of the season and I don't believe he played vs Pitt earlier @ Pitt. Blount would love to run over some Steelers!! LOL

When was last time Brady lost 2 straight AFC Championship games?

Public money split on Pitt/NE, smart money hit NE at first open, see where it goes closer to game time.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Great points Blitz, also have to add in Dion Lewis was out for a good part of the season and I don't believe he played vs Pitt earlier @ Pitt. Blount would love to run over some Steelers!! LOL

When was last time Brady lost 2 straight AFC Championship games?

Public money split on Pitt/NE, smart money hit NE at first open, see where it goes closer to game time.

Big Ben was out that earlier game, Jones started at QB for Pitt. Lewis was out. Blount had over 120 yds rushing, Bell had 81.

 

[Old School]

Big Ben was out that earlier game, Jones started at QB for Pitt. Lewis was out. Blount had over 120 yds rushing, Bell had 81.

box score from that game..


http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/new-england-patriots-pittsburgh-steelers-20161023023/