Championship round breakdown

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Matchup Analysis

Week 20


MINNESOTA (13-4) vs NEW ORLEANS (14-3)

Game Time: 6:40 p.m. EDT Sunday, January 24

Stadium: Louisiana Superdome Surface: turf






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
MINNESOTA HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 9 - 0 4 - 4 13 - 4 6 - 2 4 - 4 10 - 6 4 - 5 4 - 4 8 - 9
Last 5 games 3 - 0 0 - 2 3 - 2 3 - 0 0 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3
YTD vs. Div. 3 - 0 2 - 1 5 - 1 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 3 - 3
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NEW ORLEANS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 7 - 2 7 - 1 14 - 3 5 - 4 4 - 4 9 - 8 4 - 5 4 - 4 8 - 9
Last 5 games 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 2 1 - 4 1 - 2 0 - 2 1 - 4
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 5 1 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 5
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
MINNESOTA 3 - 3 1 - 1 2 - 4 2 - 0 6 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 2
NEW ORLEANS 4 - 3 0 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 2 5 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 4



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

MINNESOTA
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun @CLE 34 - 20 W -2 -4 W +10 40.5 40.0 O +14.0 G
09/20/09 Sun @DET 27 - 13 W -9.5 -10 W +4 45.5 45.5 U -5.5 T
09/27/09 Sun SF 27 - 24 W -6.5 -7 L -4 41.0 39.0 O +12.0 T
10/05/09 Mon GB 30 - 23 W -3.5 -4.5 W +2.5 46.5 46.5 O + 6.5 T
10/11/09 Sun @STL 38 - 10 W -10 -10 W +18 40.0 40.5 O + 7.5 T
10/18/09 Sun BAL 33 - 31 W -3.5 -3 L -1 44.5 45.5 O +18.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @PIT 17 - 27 L +3.5 +6 L -4 44.5 46.0 U -2.0 G
11/01/09 Sun @GB 38 - 26 W +3 +3.5 W +15.5 46.5 47.0 O +17.0 G
11/15/09 Sun DET 27 - 10 W -16 -17 L 0 48.5 47.5 U -10.5 T
11/22/09 Sun SEA 35 - 9 W -10.5 -10.5 W +15.5 46.0 47.0 U -3.0 T
11/29/09 Sun CHI 36 - 10 W -10 -11 W +15 47.0 47.0 U -1.0 T
12/06/09 Sun @ARI 17 - 30 L -4.5 -3.5 L -16.5 48.0 48.5 U -1.5 G
12/13/09 Sun CIN 30 - 10 W -7 -6.5 W +13.5 42.5 42.5 U -2.5 T
12/20/09 Sun @CAR 7 - 26 L -7 -8.5 L -27.5 42.5 42.5 U -9.5 G
12/28/09 Mon @CHI 30 - 36 L -7 -8.5 L -14.5 41.5 41.0 O +25.0 G
01/03/10 Sun NYG 44 - 7 W -7.5 -8 W +29 47.5 48.0 O + 3.0 T
01/17/10 Sun DAL 34 - 3 W -3 -3 W +28 48.0 45.5 U -8.5 T


NEW ORLEANS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun DET 45 - 27 W -11.5 -14 W +4 50.0 49.5 O +22.5 T
09/20/09 Sun @PHI 48 - 22 W +0 -3 W +23 46.0 46.0 O +24.0 T
09/27/09 Sun @BUF 27 - 7 W -3 -6 W +14 51.5 51.0 U -17.0 T
10/04/09 Sun NYJ 24 - 10 W -4.5 -7.5 W +6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/18/09 Sun NYG 48 - 27 W -3 -3 W +18 49.0 47.5 O +27.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @MIA 46 - 34 W -7 -6.5 W +5.5 48.0 47.5 O +32.5 G
11/02/09 Mon ATL 35 - 27 W -7.5 -11 L -3 53.0 55.5 O + 6.5 T
11/08/09 Sun CAR 30 - 20 W -14.5 -11.5 L -1.5 51.0 51.5 U -1.5 T
11/15/09 Sun @STL 28 - 23 W -13.5 -14 L -9 48.0 50.5 O + 0.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @TB 38 - 7 W -13 -10.5 W +20.5 50.0 51.0 U -6.0 G
11/30/09 Mon NE 38 - 17 W -3 -2 W +19 54.5 57.0 U -2.0 T
12/06/09 Sun @WAS 33 - 30 W -7.5 -9 L -6 47.0 47.0 O +16.0 G
12/13/09 Sun @ATL 26 - 23 W -9.5 -10 L -7 51.0 50.5 U -1.5 T
12/19/09 Sat DAL 17 - 24 L -7.5 -7.5 L -14.5 54.5 53.5 U -12.5 T
12/27/09 Sun TB 17 - 20 L -14 -14 L -17 49.5 49.0 U -12.0 T
01/03/10 Sun @CAR 10 - 23 L +7 +10 L -3 42.5 41.0 U -8.0 G
01/16/10 Sat ARI 45 - 14 W -6.5 -7 W +24 57.5 57.0 O + 2.0 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/25/05 Sun NO 16 MIN 33 -4.5 -4.0 MIN +13 45.0 44.0 O +-5 T
10/06/08 Mon MIN 30 NO 27 -4.0 -3.0 NO --6 45.5 47.0 O +-10 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (off) 26.0 20 26 107 4.1 34 23 0.7 227 6.7 334 0.6 0.9 .00
NO (def) 20.7 19 27 126 4.7 35 19 0.5 231 6.6 357 1.7 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (def) 23.5 20 27 110 4.1 34 21 0.6 228 6.7 338 0.6 0.9 .00
NO (off) 33.2 23 29 127 4.4 33 24 0.7 296 9.0 423 0.4 1.2 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (off) 29.6 21 29 119 4.1 34 23 0.7 257 7.6 376 0.4 0.6 .00
NO (def) 20.9 19 26 121 4.7 36 21 0.6 237 6.6 358 1.6 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (def) 18.5 17 23 87 3.8 34 21 0.6 215 6.3 302 0.7 0.9 .00
NO (off) 32.6 22 29 134 4.6 34 24 0.7 270 7.9 404 0.7 0.9 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

MINNESOTA (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.9 5.5 9.4 6.8 9.9 0.0 16.7
POINTS ALLOWED 2.8 7.5 10.3 4.1 8.4 0.8 13.3



NEW ORLEANS (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.4 12.9 21.3 5.3 6.6 0.0 11.9
POINTS ALLOWED 6.9 4.8 11.7 5.3 3.3 0.3 8.9



MINNESOTA (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 4.5 9.8 14.3 6.5 8.9 0.0 15.4
POINTS ALLOWED 1.7 6.1 7.8 3.3 7.1 0.4 10.8



NEW ORLEANS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.2 11.2 17.4 6.9 8.2 0.2 15.3
POINTS ALLOWED 6.6 5.9 12.5 5.4 2.8 0.2 8.4



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
MINNESOTA 53
NEW ORLEANS 53.5 -4.0 PK
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 47.5 5 under

 

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The Jets don't care about you

The Jets don't care about you

The Jets don't care about you



They are the Three Stooges, who somehow get invited to a high society party and before long everyone is throwing whipped cream pies at each other.

They are the guy who gets drunk and spoils the office Christmas get-together.

They are the ones standing in the 12-items-or-less grocery checkout line with a cart containing 21 items ? and they couldn?t care less if you?re staring at them.

They are the arrogant, in-your-face-and-what-are-you-going-to-do-about-it New York Jets and they have shaken up the NFL playoffs and have everyone scrambling back to the drawing board and re-thinking every assumption.

If you had the Bengals and Chargers and laid the points, you?ve already felt the Jets? sting, and perhaps you?re considering digging back into the wallet and this time taking New York and 7.5 points against Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game this weekend.

This is a team that lost six of seven (also going 1-6 ATS) in the middle of the season, lost at home to Buffalo, has a rookie quarterback and a coach so nutso that one week he was declaring his team out of the playoffs and two weeks later was handing out the parade route and date to celebrate their Super Bowl title.

New York still is a longshot to win the Super Bowl ? betED.com lists the Jets at +750 (Indy is +110), but after the destruction of the Chargers last weekend, there will be tons of money flowing from the Northeast into the offshores and Vegas books.

The win over the Chargers had repercussions from coast to coast. The Jets in the Super Bowl is a Patriots fan?s worst nightmare, and the Chargers will certainly spend a good part of the offseason trying to figure out how to mold their team into one that is more playoff tough.

But those are problems for other teams.

The Jets are having the time of their lives stealing lunch money on the playground. Rex Ryan has thrown out all the rules about not saying anything that can stir up the opposition, Mark Sanchez has engineered ego-crushing victories over Cincinnati and San Diego and you have to be wondering just what the Colts ? who declined the chance to waste the Jets when they had the chance in Week 16 ? have to be thinking this week as they prepare for a team whose season they could have ended less than a month ago.

The barbarians are at the gates.

Upon further review . . . no change

Despite the Jets hysteria and the possibility of a 9-7 (regular season) team getting to the Super Bowl, oddsmakers still like the AFC.

?We still assume the Colts are going to make it,? says Peter Korner, president of Las Vegas-based The Sports Club, which offers odds to dozens of casinos. Korner has the AFC at -3 (no change) with a total of 52.

?The current NFC line between Minnesota and New Orleans (Saints -4) means the two teams are about a pick on a neutral site. Therefore, we have the Colts, probably more on previous Super Bowl experience, the FG favorite over both.?

Playoff casualties

Wade Phillips. Phillips will return for another season. But even he realizes that nothing short of a Super Bowl berth will earn him another contract and he could be gone by Columbus Day if the Cowboys aren?t fast out of the gate. In his favor is the fact that there aren?t many coaches who will take responsibility for defeats and allow owner Jerry Jones to take credit for victories.

Bill Belichick. After a decade in New England, Belichick is finally taking some heat. The press is more aggressive in the few chances it gets to ask questions, the coaching staff has been bled dry by defections and the early playoff exit has everyone asking why the roster has so few playmakers. Fandom rallied around Belichick after SpyGate (?In Bill We Trust?), but now his cred is thinning.

Norv Turner. His Chargers are the equivalent of an NCAA Tournament 1-seed losing to a 16. Is it his fault Philip Rivers wasn?t on his game against the Jets? Not so much. His fault Nate Kaeding barfed on three field goal attempts? Not at all. His fault an aging LaDainian Tomlinson was kept and emerging star Michael Turner allowed to leave? Not really. But it all adds up to another playoff loss. And when fans start to think that maybe Marty Schottenheimer wasn?t all that bad, it?s not a good sign.

Mo just took a bathroom break

So much for lost momentum. The Saints and Vikings had spent a good part of the last month fending off questions about their less-than-impressive finishes (New Orleans lost its last three. Minnesota lost its last three of five) but all that conversation ended with impressive victories last weekend. Now we get the matchup that we figured we?d wind up with all along.

We can analyze this one until Brett Favre?s beard turns brown, but does anything in this game matter more than the Vikings? ability to collapse the pocket around Drew Brees? Jared Allen?s outside pressure can be pushed out and behind as Brees steps up in the pocket, but if Pat and Kevin Williams provide enough up-the-middle thrust, it could deny Brees of the time the receivers need to get into their intermediate and deep routes. Minnesota led the league in sacks with 47.

 

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Betting the NFC Title Game

Betting the NFC Title Game

Betting the NFC Title Game
January 19, 2010


The New Orleans Saints came out of hibernation on Saturday with a huge 45-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals to advance to Sunday?s NFC Championship game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Over at Bodog Sportsbook?s NFL betting lines we were cheering for New Orleans on the moneyline while hoping for Arizona on the spread (+7) and also the under.

The Saints had a great season overall but three straight losses to close the season, preceded by two squeakers no less, had a healthy contingent of Bodog bettors all over the Cards.

That was then.

Now that New Orleans has proven that the team that hammered the New England Patriots all the way back in Week 12 is still very much a reality, we felt we had to be pretty careful when we posted our point spread in the Vikings game.

We opened the Saints as 4.5-point favorites but have since moved to four. Our bettors seem to like Brett Favre right now as most of the money is coming in on the underdogs.


Both teams make a compelling argument for victory, both teams are popular with bettors, both teams have high-profile quarterbacks, and neither Minnesota nor New Orleans are big markets that can influence the spread.

The one trend that people will be talking about before this game is the Vikings? record away from their own dome sweet dome. Minnesota was perfect at home this season, but dropped its last three road games of the year in Arizona, Carolina and Chicago.

Brett Favre was far from terrible away from the Metrodome. His quarterback rating on the road in 2009 was 96.2, compared to 118.1 at home.

It?s the defense that?s struggled for the Vikings without the raucous crowd on its side. Minnesota surrendered at least 20 points in six of their eight road games in the regular season, holding only Detroit and St. Louis to less.

Crowd noise can be a huge factor in football; just ask Tony Romo how difficult it was in the deafening conditions at the Metrodome. He was sacked six times on Sunday as the Cowboys were blown away 34-3.

Without the crowd noise to add to the confusion, that same Minnesota defense will have its hands full getting pressure on Drew Brees, who was only sacked 20 times all season. For their part, the Cards didn?t drop him once on the weekend.

As for the futures odds of the two remaining NFC teams, Bodog has the Saints at 2/1 and the Vikings at 4/1. I expect the most action to continue on Minnesota. That?s a pretty enticing payout for a very good team with no glaring weaknesses.

 

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AFC Title Game Odds

AFC Title Game Odds

AFC Title Game Odds


Nobody expected the New York Jets to make it this far. Well, nobody except maybe Rex Ryan, that is. But to go all the way to the final four of the 2009-10 NFL season? With Mark Sanchez at quarterback? Not many bet on that. If they did, they sure got down at better NFL odds than 13/2.

The Jets are still the long shot of the bunch when it comes to their futures odds to win the Super Bowl. Their upcoming opponents, the Indianapolis Colts, are the favorites to win it all at 6/5.

We don?t think it?s very likely the Jets will advance to the big game, let alone win it. (Then again, we had the Chargers by more than -8 against New York.) That said, Bodog opened the Colts at -7 but heavy action on Indy has moved the line, currently making them 8-point favorites in Sunday?s AFC Championship Game in Indianapolis. (With the Baltimore-Indy game, the book won on the moneyline and the under, but lost a big decision on the -7 Indy spread making this a good winner for Bodog's players.)

It would seem as though our clientele really, really likes Peyton Manning.


On Saturday, Indianapolis held the other team with the inexperienced quarterback, power running game, and formidable defense to a field goal in a 20-3 victory, so it?s not hard to understand why a lot of bettors like the Colts, even by more than a touchdown, against the Jets.

Come game time, we expect to see relatively balanced action on this matchup. As mentioned, the Colts have always been popular with our bettors, but the Jets have a huge New York audience that will be supporting them with both their hearts and wallets.

Jets backers have certainly fared well recently, with New York covering seven of its last eight games dating back to the regular season.

It?ll be interesting to see how much individual handicappers take into account the kicking game in picking this game. We all saw what happened to Nate Kaeding on Sunday. Well, he hadn?t missed a field in 20 tries before going 0-for-3 against the Jets. That?s what pressure can do to a guy.

Indianapolis kicker Matt Stover was perfect on Saturday, nailing one from 44 yards and another from 33. He?s also won a Super Bowl before, so he?s been in big situations before.

The big key for the Jets will be keeping the game close early, just like they did against the Chargers. That allowed them to stay patient on offense, even after failing to get a first down on their first few possessions.

 

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Public taking Ryan's swagger seriously

Public taking Ryan's swagger seriously

Public taking Ryan's swagger seriously
Once again the New York Jets are heavy underdogs, and their overweight coach, Rex Ryan, is running his big mouth.

Either you love it or you're beginning to hate it. With his trash talk, Ryan is adding personality to the NFL playoffs, and these playoffs need it because three of every four games have been boring.

But now it gets good. Three great quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and Drew Brees -- still are standing, joined by a coach with an oversized ego that swells each week.

The Indianapolis Colts are 71/2-point favorites over the Jets in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, and if you believe Ryan's bravado, bet on the Jets to win straight up. The payoff would be a fat plus-280 on the money line.

Ryan said he would be "shocked" if the Jets lose. It's an absurd thing to say, and Ryan clearly is enjoying his moment in the New York spotlight.

"Now he's turning into Howard Stern. He's a shock jock," said Cal Neva sports book director Nick Bogdanovich, who will be happy if Manning and the Colts humble Ryan.

I was not surprised the Jets beat the Cincinnati Bengals on wild-card weekend. But I was shocked to see the Jets upset the San Diego Chargers.

Ryan's act is amusing. Two weeks ago, he claimed the Jets should be favored to win the Super Bowl. And now the betting public is taking his swagger seriously.

"There's plenty of money for the Jets. Normally you would see a lot of money on the favorite, but that's not the case," Bogdanovich said. "The Jets definitely captured some people's hearts with their late-season run. People are enamored with the Jets."

I'm not going to predict the outcome of this game, because last week I sided with Dallas and San Diego, and the results were disgraceful. I had to listen to country music to lift my spirits.

The Chargers lost my money, my girlfriend left, my dog ran away, and my pickup truck was stolen. All in one day.

I sure do miss the dog and the truck. The money I can win back by betting on college basketball.

It's a must to respect the Jets and their No. 1-ranked defense. But I think I know this: Manning will outplay Mark Sanchez, the Jets' rookie quarterback, and the Colts won't choke as the Chargers did.

"I can't see Manning losing this game," said handicapper Joe D'Amico of Allamericansports.info. "I've seen the Jets at times when their offense is stagnant. Their defense keeps them in a lot of games. But there's no quarterback better than Manning at reading and overcoming blitzes.

"Manning has got over that hump. He got past New England and won a Super Bowl. Manning is the real deal, and his team is the real deal. It's the Colts' year again. I'm not really concerned about the 71/2."

If it were a personality contest between coaches, the Jets would win easily. Ryan is entertaining, and the Colts' Jim Caldwell seems best when he's staying out of the way and letting Manning run the team.

The Colts probably would be 17-0 now if not for Caldwell pulling Manning and several starters in the third quarter of a 29-15 loss to the Jets on Dec. 27. Indianapolis led 15-10 -- and the margin should have been larger -- when Manning was benched.

It would be a big surprise -- but not a shock -- if Manning fails to win the rematch.

Las Vegas sports books are rooting against the Jets, who opened at about 50-1 odds to win the Super Bowl and went as high as 200-1.

"The Jets are a liability on most futures books," Bogdanovich said. "There are a few tickets out there at 200-1 and 100-1."

The NFC Championship Game, featuring the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings, is like a mini-Super Bowl. The Favre fairy tale is intriguing. The Saints are 31/2-point favorites, and Bogdanovich said the betting action is split.

"Minnesota moved more money than any public team all year," Bogdanovich said. "I would like to see a Colts-Saints Super Bowl. I want to see Brees versus Manning because I think those are the two best quarterbacks in the game. But usually when I want something, it doesn't happen."

If the Jets win, get ready for two more weeks of Rex Ryan trash talk, like it or not.

 

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USA TODAY's weekly NFL picks for 2009 season

USA TODAY's weekly NFL picks for 2009 season

USA TODAY's weekly NFL picks for 2009 season

 

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Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs this upcoming Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettors. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover, but they lose outright.

The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread with seven outright losers, six from the AFC.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Bookmaker.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but themselves for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself.

The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85? Bears and 2000 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning?s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, which could lead to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo along with a talented offensive line averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and don?t worry about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season with .500 record SU and ATS and haven?t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome and he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90?s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, trusting his arm along with coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny?s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won?t matter again. If DE Ray Edwards brings it again, Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for NFC title game failure two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

 

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NFL Conference Championship Handicapping

Hopefully you?ve enjoyed the round-by-round series on playoff handicapping thus far. This week I move on to the Conference Championship Round, with four teams about to be trimmed in half. Those two lucky teams will represent their respective conferences in Super Bowl XLIV in Miami in two weeks. They can?t dream of that ultimate goal until taking care of business here however. Likewise, the bettor shouldn?t be looking ahead either, as the two games this weekend are loaded with profit making potential. In fact, you should find the available wagering options expanded greatly for the conference title tilts. In this week?s piece, I?ll look mostly at the most common plays, the sides, money lines, and totals.

Like the earlier rounds of the NFL playoffs, the Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one, no longer is the #1 seed a lock to be hosting the game. In fact, prior to 2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ?92. Since then, they have only host three of the last eight. With upsets becoming the norm in the earlier rounds, the typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships has changed dramatically. We?ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but we?ll start with the fact that home teams are just 20-14 SU & 16-17-1 ATS in the last 34. One thing that has stayed consistent however, is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably high scoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 21 of 34 games since ?92, and only twice in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year.

The trend on the total gives us something favorable to dig deeper into. With the sides being split so evenly, it?s unlikely that we?ll be able to come up with anything to top last week?s 17-0 ATS Divisional Round Trend, but let?s give it a try anyway.

General Divisional Trends
I?ve already established the fact that most recent Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at just the games since ?05, nine of the 10 games have seen the total go that way. Home field advantage has been restored somewhat as well of late, with hosts on a run of 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS dating back to the late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize the weekend:


AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results. In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in the last decade. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 4-1 SU & ATS in the L5.

Overall, favorites own an 8-6 ATS edge in the last seven years on Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that edge though, going 5-2 ATS.

The last four NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has poured in 30.4 PPG in that span. In that same span, AFC road teams have been the higher scoring of the teams, averaging 27 PPG. Four of the L5 in the AFC went OVER the total.

Trends by Seed Number
Here?s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff teams involved in the Conference Championship games:


The last five times that a Conference Championship game was hosted by a non-#1 seed, the games went OVER the total, producing 52 PPG. The last three non-#1 seeded hosts won their games, both SU & ATS.

#1 seeds are holding their own once they advance to this round, boasting a record of 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS since ?03.

In the last six #1 vs. #2 seeded matchups in the Conference Championship Round, OVER the total is 5-0-1.

There have been 10 instances since ?93 in which a seed #4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a #1 or #2. Those lesser seeds boast a 6-4 SU & 6-3-1 ATS record in those games.

Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Conference Championship Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

Line Range Trends
Lines in the Conference Championship Round have been a bit tighter than those of the Divisional Round, with the average favorite laying 5.4 points since ?93, as compared to 7.1 points last week. Furthermore, there have been six home underdogs in that span, a relatively high percentage. Take a look at these other line specific trends:


Double-digit home favorites have won games but have not been a solid bet in the Conference Championship Round of late, going 5-2 SU but just 1-6 ATS (14%) since ?96, including five straight ATS losses.

There is a reason some hosts have played as underdogs at this point in the season, as evidenced by their 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS record in such occurrences. However, Arizona did pull an outright upset of Philadelphia last January.

Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games, going 13-8 SU & ATS since ?93. Interestingly, the straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games, and six straight contests of this type have gone OVER the total.

So far we?ve seen bettors be very successful in moving the lines in the Wildcard Round, while not faring well with the same strategy in the Divisional Round. In the Conference Title tilts, it has been split dead down the middle, 13-13 ATS. Furthermore, when moving the line towards the hosts, bettors have gone 6-6 ATS, when moving it to the road team, they?ve gone 7-7 ATS. Thus, we can take very little from how the lines move throughout the week.

Going back to ?94, 10 Conference Championship games have seen a line move 1.5-points or more throughout the week. Bettors are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the line has moved 3-points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS. In other words, you?d have been much better off fading the line move in such cases.

Total Range Trends
As touched upon a few times already, the majority of Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total in recent years. Let?s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:


There have been two total ranges that have produced the most frequent percentage of games going OVER the total. In Conference Championship games with totals in the 37-41 range (average total), the OVER is 7-1-1 since ?93. In games expected to be most high scoring, or those 46 or above, the OVER is 8-2.

The betting public has been poor dealing with totals in the Conference Championship Round, as since ?93, the ?smart money? is just 12-20 for 32%. In other words, fade the direction the total is moving. If you recall last week?s piece on the Divisional Round, following the total move netted a 60% chance of winning.

Weather often has a huge bearing on which way the total moves throughout the week during this round, and that explains why a high percentage of games (22 out of 34 since ?93) have seen the total move 1.5 points or more. As it turns out though, the success of following the money on a total bet increases dramatically if the total move was 2.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ?93, this ?smart money? has gone 7-3-1 (70%).

Scoring Trends
Games in the Conference Championship Round are won by scoring points, plain and simple. In fact, unlike past rounds, the amount of points it takes to ensure a spread cover increase quite a bit:


Home teams that failed to reach 20 points in the Conference Championship Round have gone 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS since ?93. If you?ve been keeping track, including the four Wildcard games this year, home teams that fail to score 20 points are 1-33-1 ATS in the NFL playoffs since ?93.

Unlike the previous two rounds, scoring 20 points is no assurance of either a win or cover for a home team. The key number here is 30 points. Those hosts that score between 20-29 points have gone just 8-5 SU & 5-7-1 ATS over the last 17 years in the Conference Championship Round. Those that score 30 points have swept their last 11 games, both SU & ATS.

There has been very little scoring-wise by road teams in the Conference Championships that has defined success when compared to home teams, and/or other rounds. In fact, there seems to be only a slight break at the 16-point mark. When visitors do reach 16 points, they are 14-6-1 ATS. When they don?t, they are 3-10 ATS.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records
There have been 13 of 34 games in the last 17 years of the Conference Championship Playoffs when the road team has had the same amount of wins or more than the host. Those visitors are 7-6 SU & 6-6-1 ATS. Here are some more worthwhile trends concerning won-lost marks and the Conference Championship Round:


Home teams that won 14 games or more in the regular season are just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS in the Conference Championship Round. What?s more, none of these eight teams scored 30 points in the game.

No road team that won 11 or fewer games (including playoffs) has advanced past this point since prior to ?93, as they are just 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their L5 Conference Championship Round appearances.

Road teams in the Conference Championship games with three or fewer losses in the regular season have advanced to the Super Bowl five straight times, going 5-0 ATS, regardless of the quality of the host opponent.

Trends based upon Statistical Traits
Going into Conference Championship games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous weeks? playoff games.


Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 16-17-1 ATS (48%) in the Conference Championship Round since ?93. However, since ?05, the effectiveness of this particular stat has improved, with a record of 6-4 ATS (60%).

Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are an ugly 8-17-1 (32%) ATS in the Conference Championship Round since ?96. It appears again though that this has become more important in recent years, as since ?04, the team with the edge in this category is at least even at 6-6 ATS (50%).

Remember our potent trends from last week?s Divisional Round on teams with an edge in Yards per Rush? Well, no such luck for the Conference Championship tilts, as teams with an edge in this stat are just 12-21-1 ATS (36%) since ?93, including just 5-15 ATS over the last decade.

Teams that have averaged more Pass Yards per Attempt going into a Conference Championship game haven?t done well either, going just 13-20-1 ATS (39%) since ?93, although they have split the last seven years? games, 7-7 ATS.

Not surprisingly, with the lack of success by teams with better rushing or passing statistics in the Conference Championship Round, those with an edge in Yards per Play haven?t fared well either, 14-19-1 ATS (42%) since ?93. Perhaps a momentum shift has begun though, with a 6-4 ATS mark since ?05.

Yards per Point has proven to be more effective than any of the pure yardage stats in Conference Championship Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 16-17-1 ATS (48%) overall since ?93. Unlike some of the other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late for the worse, as evidenced by the 4-8 ATS (33%) record since ?04.

Turnover Differential has proven to be the most effective indicator we have found yet in predicting Conference Championship Round success since ?93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 21-11-1 ATS (66%). Edge teams own a 10-6 ATS (42%) record since ?01 as well, so it has been consistent.

At this point, concerning offensive statistics, we have found very little to go on other than Tunrover Differential, to use as a predictor for this weekend?s games. In fact, if anything, we may proved that going against the grain, and backing the lesser offense may be a more sound strategy. Let?s see if we can find anything in looking at the defensive numbers. My guess is the numbers will be more favorable, as with familiarity, pressure, and weather, etc, this side of the ball is typically more reliable at this late stage of the year.


Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 18-15-1 (55%) ATS in the Conference Championship Round since ?93, so we?re off to a good start in our research. However, recent developments suggest change is in order, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 2-6 ATS (25%) over the L4 seasons.

Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 12-13-1 ATS (48%) ATS in the Conference Championship Round since ?96, with recent findings showing a similar 6-6 ATS (50%) mark over the last six seasons.

A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense was proven very important in the Divisional Round games. It has proven fairly important in the Conference Championship games too, as since ?93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 20-13-1 ATS (61%). Over the last four playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a 5-3 ATS (63%) record.

Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are 19-14-1 ATS (58%) in the Conference Championship Round since ?93, and 13-5 ATS (72%) dating back to ?01. This so far, is our most potent recent statistical angle.

The combination of Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed gives you Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Conference Championship Round in this stat are 17-16-1 ATS (52%) since ?93, but 11-7 ATS (61%) over the last nine seasons.

Defensive Yards per Point has been a relatively strong predictor in Conference Championship Round, as teams with an edge in this stat are 18-15-1 ATS (55%) since ?93. This trend has also been solid in the last nine seasons, 12-6 ATS (67%).

As expected, the defensive edge trends produced some more promising results. I took these trends a step further and combined the games in which one team had an edge defensively in BOTH Yards per Rush and Yards per Pass allowed. These teams are 12-6 ATS in the Conference Championship games. Still, this is nothing like we came up with last week.

As it turns out, the best angle I could uncover using the statistical edge combinations came when a team had BOTH a better Turnover Differential AND allowed fewer Yards Per Rush on defense. These teams are 15-6 ATS (71%) in the Conference Championships since ?93, including 6-0 ATS (100%) if the team with the edge was the visitor. We?ll see if either of our two matchups for ?10 present an opportunity based upon this trend.

 

[Lumi]

Preview: Vikings (12-4) at Saints (13-3)

Preview: Vikings (12-4) at Saints (13-3)

Preview: Vikings (12-4) at Saints (13-3)


Date: January 24, 2010 6:40 PM EDT

Drew Brees helped the New Orleans Saints score the most points in the NFL before leading his team to a convincing 31-point win in the playoffs.

Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings produced the league's second-highest point total before he guided his team to its own 31-point postseason victory.

The quarterbacks meet Sunday in a marquee NFC championship matchup at the Superdome - where Favre won his lone Super Bowl title 13 years ago.

New Orleans started 13-0 and used Brees' NFL-leading 34 touchdowns to earn the top seed in the NFC for the first time. The Saints (14-3) have never been to the Super Bowl and made their lone NFC championship appearance three years ago in a loss at Chicago.



Brees threw for three touchdowns and 247 yards last Saturday in a 45-14 win over Arizona that seemed to erase the sting of a season-ending three-game skid.

"We all see the team that won 13 games in a row, not the team that struggled against the Cowboys and let one get away from us against Tampa," Brees said.

Brees' impressive season seems to have been overshadowed by Favre, who finished with 33 touchdowns after opting to come out of retirement and join Minnesota (13-4). The 40-year-old seemed to be fading down the stretch as the Vikings lost three of five, much as he did last season with the Jets.

Favre, though, was at his best last Sunday in a 34-3 rout of Dallas. He turned in his first four-touchdown effort of his postseason career, throwing three scores to Sidney Rice, to gain his fifth NFC title game appearance.

Favre, a native of nearby Kiln, Miss., led Green Bay to a Super Bowl XXXI victory over New England in New Orleans before losing to Denver the next season. He lost in NFC title games to San Francisco after the 1997 season and to the Giants two years ago.

Favre is anxious for his first opportunity with the Vikings.

"I hope the little experience I have in these games which is more than most will help some," Favre said. "But that's not to say I don't get nervous or get stressed as well."

Brees and Favre have plenty of weapons at their disposal. Marques Colston and Robert Meachem each had nine touchdown receptions for New Orleans, and Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush all scored at least five rushing touchdowns.

Bush had a major impact last week with a 46-yard touchdown run and an 83-yard punt return for a score. He's scored four touchdowns in three career playoff games.

"He's as healthy as he's been, and he was something," coach Sean Payton said. "You saw it not only on the punt return, but you saw it on the big, long touchdown run. He's a dynamic player."

Favre may have had his biggest impact on Rice, who was an afterthought his first two years before finishing fourth in the NFL with 1,312 yards receiving in 2009. Rice's three touchdown catches last week tied an NFL postseason record, and he finished with six receptions for 141 yards.

"With the addition of No. 4, it's been huge for me," Rice said. "It's been great for me, and I'm thankful for that."

A passing game that includes Rice, tight end Visanthe Shiancoe (11 touchdowns) and Offensive Rookie of the Year Percy Harvin has taken the pressure off 1,000-yard back Adrian Peterson, whose 18 rushing touchdowns led the league.

The Saints will try to contain those offensive stars with a defense that ranked 25th in the NFL. That unit, though, saw 11 players combine for 26 interceptions.

Nine of those picks were by safety Darren Sharper, who tied for the league lead. Sharper spent his previous four seasons with Minnesota after being Favre's teammate at Green Bay his first eight years in the league.

"I think Darren, I played with him numerous years, and he's one of those guys that is very instinctive," Favre said. "I see Darren and he looks physically as good as he's ever looked. But his instincts, those are the things you can't coach."

Vikings coach Brad Childress says he has an idea about what to expect from Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' "multiple defense" scheme.

"Defensively, a little familiarity with Gregg and that defense," Childress said. "Most recently, (playing) Jacksonville last year and two years ago he was with the Redskins when he came in with Joe Gibbs."

Minnesota will unleash the league's best pass rush to try to neutralize Brees. The Vikings produced 48 sacks, with an NFC-leading 14 1/2 by Pro Bowl end Jared Allen.

That pass rush won't be as effective if end Ray Edwards isn't available. Edwards was injured in the third quarter against Dallas, appearing to hurt his right knee. He returned for a few plays before leaving for good with the Vikings in command.

Childress declined to elaborate on the injury, although it appears Edwards will play. Edwards had three of Minnesota's six sacks against the Cowboys.

"We're a better team when Ray plays like that," Allen said. "When Ray can take advantage of one-on-one blocks and get to the quarterback like that, we were swarming all around."

This will be Favre's first road playoff game in six years. The Vikings went 9-0 at home compared to a 4-4 road mark.

"That's going to be a factor that we have to handle obviously," Favre said. "I think it goes without saying how happy I am that we have this opportunity."

Minnesota has won four straight over New Orleans, averaging 33.3 points.

 

[Lumi]

MINNESOTA (13-4) vs NEW ORLEANS (14-3)

Game Time: 6:40 p.m. EDT Sunday, January 24

Stadium: Louisiana Superdome Surface: turf






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
MINNESOTA HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 9 - 0 4 - 4 13 - 4 6 - 2 4 - 4 10 - 6 4 - 5 4 - 4 8 - 9
Last 5 games 3 - 0 0 - 2 3 - 2 3 - 0 0 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3
YTD vs. Div. 3 - 0 2 - 1 5 - 1 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 3 - 3
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NEW ORLEANS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 7 - 2 7 - 1 14 - 3 5 - 4 4 - 4 9 - 8 4 - 5 4 - 4 8 - 9
Last 5 games 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 2 1 - 4 1 - 2 0 - 2 1 - 4
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 5 1 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 5
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
MINNESOTA 3 - 3 1 - 1 2 - 4 2 - 0 6 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 2
NEW ORLEANS 4 - 3 0 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 2 5 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 4



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

MINNESOTA
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun @CLE 34 - 20 W -2 -4 W +10 40.5 40.0 O +14.0 G
09/20/09 Sun @DET 27 - 13 W -9.5 -10 W +4 45.5 45.5 U -5.5 T
09/27/09 Sun SF 27 - 24 W -6.5 -7 L -4 41.0 39.0 O +12.0 T
10/05/09 Mon GB 30 - 23 W -3.5 -4.5 W +2.5 46.5 46.5 O + 6.5 T
10/11/09 Sun @STL 38 - 10 W -10 -10 W +18 40.0 40.5 O + 7.5 T
10/18/09 Sun BAL 33 - 31 W -3.5 -3 L -1 44.5 45.5 O +18.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @PIT 17 - 27 L +3.5 +6 L -4 44.5 46.0 U -2.0 G
11/01/09 Sun @GB 38 - 26 W +3 +3.5 W +15.5 46.5 47.0 O +17.0 G
11/15/09 Sun DET 27 - 10 W -16 -17 L 0 48.5 47.5 U -10.5 T
11/22/09 Sun SEA 35 - 9 W -10.5 -10.5 W +15.5 46.0 47.0 U -3.0 T
11/29/09 Sun CHI 36 - 10 W -10 -11 W +15 47.0 47.0 U -1.0 T
12/06/09 Sun @ARI 17 - 30 L -4.5 -3.5 L -16.5 48.0 48.5 U -1.5 G
12/13/09 Sun CIN 30 - 10 W -7 -6.5 W +13.5 42.5 42.5 U -2.5 T
12/20/09 Sun @CAR 7 - 26 L -7 -8.5 L -27.5 42.5 42.5 U -9.5 G
12/28/09 Mon @CHI 30 - 36 L -7 -8.5 L -14.5 41.5 41.0 O +25.0 G
01/03/10 Sun NYG 44 - 7 W -7.5 -8 W +29 47.5 48.0 O + 3.0 T
01/17/10 Sun DAL 34 - 3 W -3 -3 W +28 48.0 45.5 U -8.5 T


NEW ORLEANS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun DET 45 - 27 W -11.5 -14 W +4 50.0 49.5 O +22.5 T
09/20/09 Sun @PHI 48 - 22 W +0 -3 W +23 46.0 46.0 O +24.0 T
09/27/09 Sun @BUF 27 - 7 W -3 -6 W +14 51.5 51.0 U -17.0 T
10/04/09 Sun NYJ 24 - 10 W -4.5 -7.5 W +6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/18/09 Sun NYG 48 - 27 W -3 -3 W +18 49.0 47.5 O +27.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @MIA 46 - 34 W -7 -6.5 W +5.5 48.0 47.5 O +32.5 G
11/02/09 Mon ATL 35 - 27 W -7.5 -11 L -3 53.0 55.5 O + 6.5 T
11/08/09 Sun CAR 30 - 20 W -14.5 -11.5 L -1.5 51.0 51.5 U -1.5 T
11/15/09 Sun @STL 28 - 23 W -13.5 -14 L -9 48.0 50.5 O + 0.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @TB 38 - 7 W -13 -10.5 W +20.5 50.0 51.0 U -6.0 G
11/30/09 Mon NE 38 - 17 W -3 -2 W +19 54.5 57.0 U -2.0 T
12/06/09 Sun @WAS 33 - 30 W -7.5 -9 L -6 47.0 47.0 O +16.0 G
12/13/09 Sun @ATL 26 - 23 W -9.5 -10 L -7 51.0 50.5 U -1.5 T
12/19/09 Sat DAL 17 - 24 L -7.5 -7.5 L -14.5 54.5 53.5 U -12.5 T
12/27/09 Sun TB 17 - 20 L -14 -14 L -17 49.5 49.0 U -12.0 T
01/03/10 Sun @CAR 10 - 23 L +7 +10 L -3 42.5 41.0 U -8.0 G
01/16/10 Sat ARI 45 - 14 W -6.5 -7 W +24 57.5 57.0 O + 2.0 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/25/05 Sun NO 16 MIN 33 -4.5 -4.0 MIN +13 45.0 44.0 O +-5 T
10/06/08 Mon MIN 30 NO 27 -4.0 -3.0 NO --6 45.5 47.0 O +-10 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (off) 26.0 20 26 107 4.1 34 23 0.7 227 6.7 334 0.6 0.9 .00
NO (def) 20.7 19 27 126 4.7 35 19 0.5 231 6.6 357 1.7 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (def) 23.5 20 27 110 4.1 34 21 0.6 228 6.7 338 0.6 0.9 .00
NO (off) 33.2 23 29 127 4.4 33 24 0.7 296 9.0 423 0.4 1.2 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (off) 29.6 21 29 119 4.1 34 23 0.7 257 7.6 376 0.4 0.6 .00
NO (def) 20.9 19 26 121 4.7 36 21 0.6 237 6.6 358 1.6 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
MIN (def) 18.5 17 23 87 3.8 34 21 0.6 215 6.3 302 0.7 0.9 .00
NO (off) 32.6 22 29 134 4.6 34 24 0.7 270 7.9 404 0.7 0.9 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

MINNESOTA (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.9 5.5 9.4 6.8 9.9 0.0 16.7
POINTS ALLOWED 2.8 7.5 10.3 4.1 8.4 0.8 13.3



NEW ORLEANS (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.4 12.9 21.3 5.3 6.6 0.0 11.9
POINTS ALLOWED 6.9 4.8 11.7 5.3 3.3 0.3 8.9



MINNESOTA (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 4.5 9.8 14.3 6.5 8.9 0.0 15.4
POINTS ALLOWED 1.7 6.1 7.8 3.3 7.1 0.4 10.8



NEW ORLEANS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.2 11.2 17.4 6.9 8.2 0.2 15.3
POINTS ALLOWED 6.6 5.9 12.5 5.4 2.8 0.2 8.4



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
MINNESOTA 53
NEW ORLEANS 53.5 -4.0 PK
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 47.5 5 under

 

[Lumi]

Jets at Colts

Jets at Colts

Jets at Colts

It?s not too often that a Week 16 game could come back and bite you in the ass, but that?s exactly what could happen in the AFC Championship Game on CBS at 1:00 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Indianapolis (15-2 straight up, 10-4-1 against the spread) was en route to a 16-0 regular season and possibly even a history making Super Bowl championship to shut up the 1972 Miami Dolphins when they met the Jets at home in Week 16.

The Colts held onto a 15-10 lead with just over five minutes left in the third quarter when they decided to pull their starters. Backup quarterback Curtis Painter fumbled the ball when he was sacked by Calvin Pace, while Marques Douglas ran the ball back for the go-head touchdown. New York (11-7 SU, ATS) never looked back as they won as a 4 ?-point road pup 29-15.

Outside of that run at perfection, there wasn?t anything else Indy was playing for in that game since they had home field advantage wrapped up. The Jets, on the other hand, desperately needed to win that game to stay in the playoff hunt. Rex Ryan?s club took advantage of that win and a triumph in the regular season finale over Cincinnati (who didn?t have a damn thing to play for) to punch its ticket for the postseason.

Ryan actually took umbrage to the fact that his Jets were longshots to win it all at the start of the playoffs, but should he so miffed?

?As someone that was on the Jets in the regular season finale against the Bengals as well as their tainted win over the Colts, I would objectively make the case that they are overrated,?


?This is a team that lost to the Jags, Falcons, Dolphins, and Bills at home this year and had the good fortune of facing two teams in Cincy and Indy that had next to no incentive to win their regular season games.? Bovi continues, ?While they deserve credit for their playoff victories, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Chargers imploded on Sunday with costly penalties aside from their over all lack of execution.?

There is no doubt that the Jets have gotten lucky during the playoffs. This is a team that has seen its first two playoff opponents go 0-for-5 on field goals, when their kickers (Nate Kaeding and Shayne Graham) had missed five total field goal attempts during the regular season altogether. San Diego committed 10 penalties against the Jets last Sunday; they saw just under five yellow flags thrown against them during the regular season.


As lucky as Gang Green has been in the postseason, we should give credit where credit is due. New York had the best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season at 172.3 yards per game. They?ve kept that pace up in the playoffs, averaging 170.0 YPG on the ground through their first two tests. Shonn Greene has been particularly impressive with 263 rushing yards and two trips to the end zone.

New York has needed its rushing game to perform because offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be damned if he takes to the air with Mark Sanchez under center. Sanchez doesn?t have terrible stats for the playoffs (63.2 completion percentage, 282 yards, 2 touchdowns), but those numbers are misleading. The rookie signal caller only had 23 pass attempts against the Bolts, completing 12 of them for 100 yards for a score and a pick. In fact, he?s only had five games this year where he threw the ball more than 30 times.

Unfortunately for Sanchez and the rest of the Jets? offense, Indy?s defense looked pretty darn good last week. The Colts gave up just 87 yards on the ground and 183 through the air to Baltimore in a 20-3 lambasting as 6 ?-point home favorites. They also got Joe Flacco to throw two interceptions, but that?s a bit misleading since they came in the final two minutes of the game.

Those numbers against the pass for the Colts last week makes sense as they were 14th in the league, giving up just 212.7 YPG. Plus, Sanchez only threw for 106 yards against them in Week 16. Against the run, however, Indianapolis will be tested by the best when you consider they have the NFL?s 24th-ranked rush defense, allowing 126.5 rushing YPG.

And if the defense doesn?t hold steady, it?s not that big a deal. At least it isn?t a big deal when you have the best quarterback the league has ever seen in Peyton Manning. All he?s done is rank in the Top 10 in efficiency (99.9 rating), completion percentage (68.8 percent), passing yards (281.3 YPG) and touchdowns (33).

Manning has even been able to do this with a rebuilt receiving corp. Now he?s still getting the major contribution out of Reggie Wayne (100 receptions, 1,264 yards, 10 TD) and Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TD). What we didn?t expect was Anthony Gonzalez being out for the season with a right knee injury. What we really didn?t expect was getting great performances second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (47 rec., 765 yards, 4 TD) and rookie target Austin Collie (60 rec., 676 yards, 7 TD).

Indy needs the passing game to click because its rushing offense is lacking. The Colts are the worst running attack in the NFL, gaining 80.9 YPG on the ground. Joseph Addai has done a decent job with 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Donald Brown has shown flashes of his days at Connecticut, but has only gained 281 yards on the ground with three scores.

Success for the Colts on the attack is definitely not guaranteed against the best defense in the NFL. The Jets are giving up 312.5 YPG in the playoffs right now, but are second to only the Ravens with three interceptions. Darrelle Revis has two of those picks to his credit, one coming against San Diego last weekend. It also doesn?t hurt that New York was the best pass defense in the league with an average of 153.7 YPG during the regular season.

Even though the Jets are leading a charmed life and have (for bettor or worse) won in Indianapolis, the Colts are still listed as 7 ?-point home favorites with a total of 39. Bettors can play on New York to keep jamming its foot into that glass slipper for a outright win at a plus-280 return (risk $100 to win $280).

The Colts were actually just 4 ?-point home favorites for that much talked about game in Week 16 against New York, but Bodog?s sportsbook manager Richard Gardner explains the difference. ?In week 16, when the Jets played the Colts, the line was actually as high as -6, but with the signing of the third strong QB of the practice roster books realized that the Colts were not as interested in playing for the perfect season and the line dropped to -4 ?. This week obviously the Colts do have something to play for and there are no questions that the book has to answer about playing time for the stars. This game is a must win for both teams, not just one, so that allows for the 3 ?-point move from the last games closing line.?

Recent history for the AFC Title Game bodes well for the Colts as the favorites have gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven bouts. The ?over? was a profitable 5-2 in that stretch as well.

Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that Indy has gone 23-3 SU in the last five years when they?re posted as a 7 ?-point home ?chalk.? Bettors have watched them cover the spread in 11 of those contests though.

New York has shown an affinity for helping its backers cash in at the window when listed as a road ?dog, as evidenced by a 7-2 SU and ATS mark. That includes a 4-2 SU and ATS record for the Jets on the road in Ryan?s first season.

 

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Preview: Jets (9-7) at Colts (14-2)

Preview: Jets (9-7) at Colts (14-2)

Preview: Jets (9-7) at Colts (14-2)

Date: January 24, 2010 3:00 PM EDT

Peyton Manning stood on the sideline with his helmet still on and arms folded, helpless as the Indianapolis Colts' undefeated run ended in Week 16. The New York Jets won't get any such breaks this time.

At stake now is a Super Bowl appearance, with Manning and the Colts getting another shot at the confident Jets and their powerful defense in the AFC championship Sunday afternoon.

With home-field advantage already secured, Indianapolis (15-2) pulled Manning and other starters early in the second half against New York (11-7) on Dec. 27. The Jets took advantage, ending the Colts' league-record 23-game regular-season winning streak while grabbing control of their playoff destiny with a 29-15 victory.



Though he never questioned rookie coach Jim Caldwell's decision, Manning didn't appear happy about it on the sideline at Lucas Oil Stadium as the Colts gave the Jets a window of opportunity that they have taken full advantage of.

Hosting its first conference title game since its Super Bowl title run four years ago, Indianapolis is hoping the extra rest will pay off against a New York team that had to scrap its way through the end of the regular season and two hard-fought playoff victories.

"I told them we wanted to end the regular season fresh, ready and well prepared," Caldwell said. "I believe we did. It doesn't give you any guarantees. It's what you believe in and your convictions and playing well when it comes time."

Despite trailing by five when the Colts decided to rest some of their regulars, the Jets kept hearing how Indianapolis handed them the victory. They used that as motivation to become the only road team to win in the divisional round, but coach Rex Ryan insists his team doesn't need any extra incentive for this contest.

"This is the AFC championship," said Ryan, whose team ranked first in total defense and scoring defense this season. "The motivation is going to come from the fact that the winner of this game advances to the Super Bowl. That's probably motivation enough."

This is the first time a conference championship game will have two first-year coaches, and the first time it will feature a Super Bowl rematch. The Jets' only trip to the Super Bowl came before the AFL-NFL merger, when Joe Namath and New York stunned the heavily favored Baltimore Colts 16-7 in 1969.

Mark Sanchez doesn't have Namath's credentials, though the 23-year-old Jets rookie already has as many playoff wins (two).

Manning is certain to eventually join Johnny Unitas, his predecessor from that Super Bowl, in the Hall of Fame, and he appeared sharp coming off the bye in helping Indianapolis beat Baltimore 20-3 on Saturday.

Manning threw two touchdowns and went 30 of 44 for 246 yards while directing a patient offense. The running game again seemed to be an afterthought for the Colts, gaining 25 yards on 16 carries, while Manning completed 12 passes for 73 yards to his top targets, wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark.

Those numbers were subpar for the Pro Bowlers as Indianapolis prevailed against an aggressive Ravens defense. The Colts now have to contend with a relentless Jets team that shut down high-powered San Diego in a 17-14 win Sunday to advance to its first conference title game in 11 years.

New York, the AFC's fifth seed, has won seven of eight after losing six of seven.

"We believed the whole time, the whole year, when it probably wasn't the popular choice," Ryan said. "We don't have to apologize to anyone."

Over the Jets' last eight games, only the Colts have scored more than 14 points against them. Manning has had success against Rex Ryan's defenses, going head-to-head with Ryan five times since 2005.

Manning went 82 of 132 for 1,136 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in going 4-1 in those games. The only loss came in December.

``Against these guys, the more familiar you are with them, the better chance it gives you,' Manning said. ``It doesn't guarantee anything, but it does give you a better chance. That's the focus right now: trying to get prepared mentally and physically to play a good game.'

A physical running game complements New York's defense, with rookie Shonn Greene stepping up to take most of the carries from veteran Thomas Jones in recent weeks.

Greene rushed for 420 yards and two TDs in his last four games for the Jets, who were the top-ranked rushing team during the regular season, taking pressure off Sanchez.

Indianapolis ranked 24th against the run but held the Ravens' potent rushing attack to 87 yards in a dominant defensive effort. The Colts' defense relies on speed, and Caldwell wanted the unit playing faster at the end of the season even if it meant resting starters.

"That was one of our goals," Caldwell said. "I really believe in speed, particularly at a time of the year when maybe you can gain a step or two."

The Colts will likely stack the line of scrimmage in an attempt to stop the run, forcing Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez, though, has played mostly mistake-free over his past four games, and has made big throws when the Jets have needed them.

Against the Chargers, he threw a go-ahead, 2-yard touchdown pass to tight end Dustin Keller three plays into the fourth quarter to give New York its first lead at 10-7.

The Jets are trying to become the first team to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback.

"To get to the Super Bowl, no team really has an easy ride," New York linebacker Bart Scott said. "If you want to earn the right to go to the Super Bowl, you have to go through teams you're not supposed to beat."

The Colts lost their only playoff matchup with the Jets 41-0 in a wild-card contest Jan. 4, 2003. Manning was intercepted twice and limited to 137 yards for a 31.3 passer rating, his lowest in 16 playoff appearances.

New York defensive end Shaun Ellis is expected to play despite suffering a broken left hand on the Jets' first defensive play against San Diego. He returned to the game wearing a cast.

 

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NY JETS (11-7) vs INDIANAPOLIS (15-2)

Game Time: 3:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, January 24

Stadium: RCA Dome Surface: turf






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NY JETS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 4 - 4 7 - 3 11 - 7 4 - 4 7 - 3 11 - 7 4 - 4 4 - 6 8 - 10
Last 5 games 1 - 1 3 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 0 4 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 3 - 2
YTD vs. Div. 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4 1 - 2 1 - 2 2 - 4
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
INDIANAPOLIS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 8 - 1 7 - 1 15 - 2 4 - 5 7 - 1 11 - 6 4 - 5 5 - 3 9 - 8
Last 5 games 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 0 4 - 1
YTD vs. Div. 3 - 0 3 - 0 6 - 0 1 - 2 3 - 0 4 - 2 0 - 3 2 - 1 2 - 4
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
NY JETS 3 - 1 4 - 2 5 - 2 2 - 1 3 - 4 1 - 0 4 - 4 0 - 0
INDIANAPOLIS 6 - 0 1 - 1 6 - 0 1 - 1 4 - 5 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 5



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

NY JETS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun @HOU 24 - 7 W +4.5 +4.5 W +21.5 45.0 44.0 U -13.0 G
09/20/09 Sun NE 16 - 9 W +6 +3 W +10 46.5 45.0 U -20.0 G
09/27/09 Sun TEN 24 - 17 W -3 -1 W +6 36.5 36.0 O + 5.0 G
10/04/09 Sun @NO 10 - 24 L +4.5 +7.5 L -6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/12/09 Mon @MIA 27 - 31 L -3 -3 L -7 37.0 36.5 O +21.5 G
10/18/09 Sun BUF 13 - 16 L -9 -9.5 L -12.5 37.0 35.5 U -6.5 G
10/25/09 Sun @OAK 38 - 0 W -7.5 -6 W +32 35.5 35.0 O + 3.0 G
11/01/09 Sun MIA 25 - 30 L -4 -3.5 L -8.5 40.0 40.5 O +14.5 G
11/15/09 Sun JAC 22 - 24 L -6 -6.5 L -8.5 42.5 41.0 O + 5.0 G
11/22/09 Sun @NE 14 - 31 L +10 +11 L -6 43.5 45.5 U -0.5 G
11/29/09 Sun CAR 17 - 6 W -3 -3.5 W +7.5 42.0 41.5 U -18.5 G
12/03/09 Thu @BUF 19 - 13 W -3 -3.5 W +2.5 37.0 37.0 U -5.0 T
12/13/09 Sun @TB 26 - 3 W -5.5 -3.5 W +19.5 37.0 36.5 U -7.5 G
12/20/09 Sun ATL 7 - 10 L -5.5 -6 L -9 36.5 36.0 U -19.0 G
12/27/09 Sun @IND 29 - 15 W +7 +3.5 W +17.5 42.5 40.5 O + 3.5 T
01/03/10 Sun CIN 37 - 0 W -8 -10 W +27 36.5 33.5 O + 3.5 G
01/09/10 Sat @CIN 24 - 14 W +4 +2.5 W +12.5 36.0 34.0 O + 4.0 G
01/17/10 Sun @SD 17 - 14 W +7.5 +9 W +12 43.0 43.0 U -12.0 G


INDIANAPOLIS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun JAC 14 - 12 W -7.5 -6.5 L -4.5 43.0 45.0 U -19.0 T
09/21/09 Mon @MIA 27 - 23 W -3 -3 W +1 40.5 41.0 O + 9.0 G
09/27/09 Sun @ARI 31 - 10 W +0 +3 W +24 49.5 49.5 U -8.5 G
10/04/09 Sun SEA 34 - 17 W -9.5 -10 W +7 43.0 44.0 O + 7.0 T
10/11/09 Sun @TEN 31 - 9 W -4.5 -4 W +18 43.0 44.5 U -4.5 G
10/25/09 Sun @STL 42 - 6 W -11.5 -14 W +22 43.0 45.5 O + 2.5 T
11/01/09 Sun SF 18 - 14 W -9.5 -13 L -9 45.0 45.0 U -13.0 T
11/08/09 Sun HOU 20 - 17 W -9.5 -7.5 L -4.5 49.0 50.5 U -13.5 T
11/15/09 Sun NE 35 - 34 W -3 -2.5 L -1.5 46.5 48.5 O +20.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @BAL 17 - 15 W +0 -1 W +1 44.5 44.5 U -12.5 G
11/29/09 Sun @HOU 35 - 27 W -3.5 -3 W +5 49.0 48.0 O +14.0 G
12/06/09 Sun TEN 27 - 17 W -8.5 -6 W +4 44.5 46.5 U -2.5 T
12/13/09 Sun DEN 28 - 16 W -8.5 -6.5 W +5.5 44.0 43.5 O + 0.5 T
12/17/09 Thu @JAC 35 - 31 W -6.5 -3 W +1 46.5 43.0 O +23.0 G
12/27/09 Sun NYJ 15 - 29 L -7 -3.5 L -17.5 42.5 40.5 O + 3.5 T
01/03/10 Sun @BUF 7 - 30 L +8 +8 L -15 35.0 32.0 O + 5.0 T
01/16/10 Sat BAL 20 - 3 W -6.5 -6.5 W +10.5 44.5 44.0 U -21.0 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
10/01/06 Sun IND 31 NYJ 28 +8.5 +8 NYJ +5 44.0 46.5 O +-12.5 G
12/27/09 Sun NYJ 29 IND 15 -7.0 -3.5 IND --17.5 42.5 40.5 O +-3.5 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (off) 22.8 17 39 185 4.7 22 12 0.5 139 6.3 324 0.9 0.3 .00
IND (def) 17.7 19 27 111 4.1 36 24 0.7 218 6.1 329 0.9 0.9 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (def) 15.2 16 24 103 4.3 33 19 0.6 180 5.5 283 1.1 0.8 .00
IND (off) 23.4 22 24 73 3.0 42 27 0.6 284 6.8 357 1.2 0.2 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (off) 21.6 17 38 172 4.5 24 13 0.5 148 6.2 320 1.2 0.5 .00
IND (def) 18.2 20 29 124 4.3 36 23 0.6 211 5.9 335 1.1 0.7 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
NYJ (def) 14.7 15 26 101 3.9 32 17 0.5 158 4.9 259 1.1 0.8 .00
IND (off) 25.6 21 23 79 3.4 38 25 0.7 279 7.3 358 1.2 0.3 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

NY JETS (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 3.3 7.6 10.9 5.3 6.6 0.0 11.9
POINTS ALLOWED 4.3 4.1 8.4 0.9 5.9 0.0 6.8



INDIANAPOLIS (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.3 8.7 15 2.6 5.9 0.0 8.5
POINTS ALLOWED 2.2 5.9 8.1 2.4 7.1 0.0 9.5



NY JETS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 4.5 6.8 11.3 4.9 5.4 0.0 10.3
POINTS ALLOWED 3.3 4.3 7.6 2.6 4.3 0.2 7.1



INDIANAPOLIS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 5.8 9.5 15.3 3.4 6.9 0.0 10.3
POINTS ALLOWED 4.1 6.2 10.3 3.1 4.9 0.0 8



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
NY JETS 50
INDIANAPOLIS 56 -9.5 2.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 42 1.5 over

 

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NFC Title Talk

NFC Title Talk

NFC Title Talk
January 22, 2010
By SPORTSBETTING.COM

While the AFC championship features greenhorn Mark Sanchez against wily vet Peyton Manning, the NFC title game will see two experienced QBs going head to head in the New Orleans Saints? Drew Brees and the Minnesota Vikings? Brett Favre.



Going into Sunday?s tilt, online sportsbooks have New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point home fave and the Total is currently 53.



The Saints are favored by a field goal in first half betting and the Total for the first two quarters is set at 26.5.



SPORTSBETTING.com is reporting balanced action on this game, much more so than the AFC matchup between the Jets and Colts.






The NFC?s Top 2 seeds performed similarly in the divisional round, handily defeating their opponents.



The Saints covered as seven-point home faves as they defeated the Arizona Cardinals 45-14 and the Vikes stopped Tony Romo and the surging Dallas Cowboys in a 34-3 win ? Minnesota covered as a three-point home favorite.



Let?s look at some betting numbers from this matchup:



NFC Championship Trends:



- In their last nine games overall, Minnesota has the edge over New Orleans, going 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread.



- The last nine games between these two teams have seen the ?under? go 7-1-1.



- New Orleans has seen the ?over? go 14-3 their last 17 starts vs. teams from the NFC North.



- The Saints are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 starts.



- The last 11 January road games have not been kind to Minnesota and its bettors, as the Vikings are 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS.



- The Saints haven?t been too sharp either though in January, as they are only 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS.



- The last 13 times New Orleans has been favored by four-points or less, it has been a boon for bettors, as they boats a record of 10-3 ATS. In this situation, they ?over? has gone 11-2.



- Minnesota, on the other hand, has burned a hole in bettors? pockets in their last 13 games when underdogs of +4 or less; as they have a record of 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS in that situation.



Super Bowl Odds:

In Super Bowl XLIV futures betting, the Saints are +200 favorites while the Vikings are +400.



Both teams have a lot of offensive weapons so the NFC title game should be a good one.



Good luck.

 

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Championship Upsets?

Championship Upsets?

Championship Upsets?
January 21, 2010
By Sportsbook.com


Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent. The Colts pulled many of their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, Coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85? Bears and ?00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning?s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.





The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren?t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said, the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven?t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny?s defense is not in the secondary, however, if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won?t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

Head over to Sportsbook.com to get in on the Conference Championship wagering. Be sure to place your bets on Friday at a discount with -105 Juice.

 

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Super Bowl Boot Camp

Super Bowl Boot Camp

Super Bowl Boot Camp
January 20, 2010
By Bodog

It seemed like this time would never come, but the biggest even on the sports gaming calendar is just around the corner. That?s right, Super Bowl XLIV kicks off from Miami?s Sun Life Stadium on February 7 (6:30 p.m. EST, CBS). This is the latest in the year the Super Bowl has ever been held. Good thing for handicappers; we?ll have that much more time to prepare, even if we don?t know the participants yet.



Gamblers will take any advantage that they?re given. Consider that the NFL is the most difficult of the major sports to handicap; the betting public is both gigantic and better informed, and there are limited opportunities to lay down some coin during a 16-game season. Now take that challenging marketplace and focus it directly on Super Bowl Sunday. It ain?t easy, folks. But neither is it rocket science. All you need to get the jump on the public is some good betting fundamentals.



The first thing that bettors should know is the golden rule of gambling on the NFL: Get in early. The best chance for us to get some value for our money is as soon as the sportsbooks put up the odds. The more action that comes in on a game, the tighter the lines will get in response to market forces. The archetypal square bettor might spend some time going over the office pool and deciding which Super Bowl props to take, but he still won?t place his bet until after work is over on Friday. There?s invariably a rush of action over the weekend before the game, so the lines are relatively soft until then. As they say, there?s never been a better time to buy.




Something else that will push gamblers to hold off is that open week between the conference title games and the Super Bowl. That extra week also opens up the possibility that off-the-field events will come into play. Any number of things could happen between the time you place your bet and the start of the Big Game. Exhibit A: Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Oakland Raiders (-3.5) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Oakland?s starting center, Barret Robbins, went missing the week before the game and was eventually hospitalized. Tampa Bay took advantage and cruised to a 48-21 victory with three interception returns for touchdowns.



Our second commandment is pretty simple, but often overlooked: Thou shalt read the local papers. A case as extreme as Robbins? (he suffers from bipolar disorder and has been in and out of jail) is rare, but these things do happen. The local papers ? most of which are accessible online for free ? are also your best source for injury updates. This is the end of an extremely punishing season; players are worn down and highly susceptible to injury while running the playoff gauntlet. No matter what the talking heads on TV tell you, the name and number on the back of the jersey is more important than the team moniker on front of it. One missing player can spell the difference between winning and losing. That player could be a star quarterback, or an anonymous (yet very important) offensive lineman like Robbins.



Step No. 3 in our basic betting strategy is horde as many stats as we can on the NFL?s championship game. Trends are not gospel, but they do give us a decent general picture of the Big Game. They?re also a very necessary part of your Super Bowl prop plans. Here are a dozen must-haves for your collection:



- There has been a touchdown scored in every single Super Bowl game.

- No Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime.

- No team has ever been shut out in the Super Bowl.

- No Super Bowl has been scoreless at halftime.

- There has never been a punt return for a touchdown at the Super Bowl.

- Every winning team has scored at least one touchdown.

- There has never been a play from scrimmage of 90 yards or longer.

- The team leading after the first quarter is 22-10 straight up.

- The team leading at the half is 33-8.

- The team leading after three quarters is 36-6.

- The team scoring first is 28-15.

- The team with the higher seed is 14-12.

 

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Bet on Super Bowl MVP
January 21, 2010
By betED

Bet the Super Bowl MVP at betED.com

The NFL Conference Championships are this Sunday and betED.com has dozens of great prop bets for both matchups.

The first game has the Indianapolis Colts hosting the New York Jets in the AFC Championship (3 pm ET, CBS).


Always among the most popular props is which team will score first, with the Colts favored to pick up the first points at -180 odds in NFL Playoff Prop Bets at betED.com. New York is at +130.

In the same vein, NFL Props odds for exactly what type of play will produce the first points have an Indianapolis touchdown as the favorite at -140, followed by a Indianapolis field goal at +230.

A Jets? TD is at +265 and a Jet?s field goal is +285.

The over/under for the longest touchdown in the Jets-Colts game is 40.5 yards (over, -130; Under, -110), while the Over/under for the shortest touchdown 1.5 (Over, -120; Under, -120).

The over/under for the number of TDs is 4.5 (Over, +100; Under -140).

The next game Sunday is the NFC Championship between the Minnesota Vikings and the host New Orleans Saints (6:50 pm ET, FOX).

For that tilt, the Saints are favored to score first, at -140, while the Vikings are at +105.

A New Orleans touchdown is at +170 to be the first scoring play of the game, followed by a New Orleans field goal at +200. A Minnesota touchdown is a +260, and a Minnesota field goal is +270.

The favored winning margin is New Orleans by either 1 to 6 points or 7 to 12 points (+400) followed by Minnesota by 1 to 6 points (+475).

Check out all the great NFL Conference Championship Props at betED.com.

 

[Lumi]

Jets look for another upset

Jets look for another upset

Jets look for another upset
January 19, 2010
By SPORTSBETTING.COM
AFC Championship: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
It will be a David vs. Goliath-like battle when the Final 2 from the AFC battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Sunday.

The Indianapolis Colts, who are ?supposed to be in the AFC title game,? will host the New York Jets, who ?weren?t even supposed to make the playoffs? and on top of that, we?ll see the tried, tested and true QB Peyton Manning dueling with the rookie signal-caller Mark Sanchez.

Online sportsbooks opened Indy as a 7.5 point favorite (a couple books opened Indy -7 early but it immediately went to 7.5 across the board), and now has moved to -8. The total is set at 40.5.

The betting action has leveled off after the initial spike of Colt money early. If you?re thinking about betting on the Jets you might as well wait, as this line isn?t going to come down and could continue to rise a little.

Let?s look at some numbers from this matchup.

Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games (remember they didn?t care about the last couple of games on their schedule).


Note that in their most recent eight games vs. teams from the AFC East, the result has been 6 Overs and 2 Unders.

However, bettors who played the Colts haven?t seen much of a payout in Indy?s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.

You don?t have to look too far back to their last meeting.

It was a controversial game a few weeks ago that resulted in a road win for the Jets, as they handed Indianapolis its first loss of the regular season (by a final of 29-15) but many of the Colts starters were on the bench in the second half of the game.

The Jets covered as 4-point road ?dogs and the Total went Over 41.

In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.

The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.

In the green and white?s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in these NFL playoffs.

In the Jets? last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.

Will Peyton Manning go for the second Super Bowl of his career or will Mark Sanchez cap his rookie season with a Super Bowl appearance?

We?ll see this weekend.

 

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Conference Championships

Conference Championships

Conference Championships
It took just a few minutes of me gawking at recent trends to come to an easy conclusion ? I am so over championship games.

The past three years, the over has gone a remarkable 5-1, including a sparkling 3-0 in the NFC. The only game over that span that failed to surpass the number was New England?s 21-12 win over San Diego in 2008 that fell well short of the mark of 48.

And while I won?t call them shootouts, teams usually show up offensively in these big games. The Chargers in 2008 were the only team that failed to score at least two touchdowns over the six-game sample and just three teams have failed to crack the 20-point mark over our six-game sample.

Which brings us to our first game ? the NFC Championship at the Metrodome.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 52.5)

No one will get this game confused with a bare-knuckled, defensive, grind-it-out, slobber-knocker. The total is set at a robust 52.5 points and why wouldn?t it be? The Saints and Vikings combined to average more than 60 points during the regular season and didn?t miss a beat last week in the divisional round.

Minnesota remained aggressive through the final gun and hung a 34-spot on the Cowboys, who entered the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league with arguably the top defense in the NFC. The Saints ran over, around and through the Cardinals en route to a 45-14 beatdown over the defending NFC champions.

And why shouldn?t this trend continue? If Minnesota is smart, it will continue to pound stud running back Adrian Peterson (18 TDs) and hammer the Saints and their poor rush defense. This could shorten the game, but expect New Orleans and the Vikings both to be too reliant on their deep passing game, something each team has become increasingly reliant on.

Both teams also feature home-run threats in the return game ? Percy Harvin and Reggie Bush ? and have incredibly reliable kickers.

Defenses also should be able to make their fare share of plays, especially Minnesota?s fantastic pass rush, but expect this to only make the offenses more aggressive.

Now let?s take a look at the AFC.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 39)

Defense has dominated this conference the past few seasons, notching the only championship game under the past three years and giving us last year?s 23-14 slugfest when the Steelers outlasted the Ravens and rode a late interception return for a touchdown by Troy Polamalu. It was also a big return for over players, which saw the total of 35 fall when the safety crossed the goal line.

This season sportsbooks see another defensive battle in the making. New York touts the league?s top-ranked unit and Indianapolis isn?t too shabby either, holding the white-hot Ravens to a meager field goal last week.

But let?s dig deeper. The Jets love to pound the ball, control the clock and ease the load on rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. However, the team touts a legitimate deep threat in receiver Braylon Edwards, and the emergence of rookie running back Shonn Greene has added an explosive dimension to the team?s running game. And don?t forget about New York?s Wildcat package featuring former Missouri signal-caller Brad Smith. Overall, six of the Jets past nine postseason games have passed the total.

Meantime, the Colts made the most of their field position last week against the Ravens and cashed in on two touchdowns late in the first half. The team tends to play more conservative in the postseason, but simply needs to cash in on several short fields it will get against the Jets to push the total past this relatively low number.

During Championship Weekend it?s time to handicap like a champ ? play the overs and get ready for the Super Bowl.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves


Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn?t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.

Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it?s a good sample ratio of what?s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ?, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

By Tuesday, a few Sports Books had gone to Colts -8, but the money being dealt was still set as 7 or 7 ? point favorite on the chart.

The Hilton has their money line currently set at Colts -340/+280, which is essentially a strong 7-point favorite line.

Every year in the Super Bowl, the favorite money line is always the best value of the year because the bettor gets about 20% to 30% value of what the true number is thanks to the majority of the public forsaking the points.

The Super Bowl is the ultimate public game where they determine which way the lines go and the sharp money has little bearing on anything, as opposed to the rest of the year when the sharps are very well-respected.

As long as everyone is taking the Jets on the money line, that line will drop no matter how high the spread goes.



The story is a little different for the Vikings-Saints game. Ticket counts are showing almost split action across the board with a slight lean towards the Saints. Many Vegas Books have flirted with moving the Saints to 4-point favorites, but quickly came back to 3 ?.

Most books like to have somewhat of a decision on the big games, while others are content to grind it out and juice out the public money. The Saints game is building up to be one of those games that the books won?t have to sweat on much, other than futures. They can grind out the parlay win and then hope the 'dog doesn?t win straight up to avoid increased odds payouts on straight and parlay wagers.

The ultimate hope for the Vegas Sports Books on Sunday will be the Jets covering the spread, but losing to avoid the money line combinations on the Jets. Once all the parlays and liability is known after the Colts game going into the late Saints game, it?ll be more clear to them what they want, but it?s likely to be the same -- 'dog covers, but doesn?t win.

As for the futures, not many are rooting for the Jets even though having a New York team in the Super Bowl would be better for Super Bowl handle. The Vikings always traditionally get bet on massively much in the same way the Cubs and Twins always do for World Series futures. Many books have said that the Vikings would be the second-worst outcome.

For Las Vegas Strip properties, the futures are a huge chunk of change. Textbook bookmaking says you don?t co-mingle and make decisions for one proposition to off-set the other, but if the risk is substantial, it?s hard to ignore.

These strip properties have nurtured the Super Bowl futures all season since last Super Bowl and watched folks come in every weekend from all corners of the world taking souvenir bet slips back home and now it?s close to paying up. Generally, the book will hold 35% to 50% of the entire Super Bowl future handle. Should the favored Colts win it all, that hold percentage will be closer to 75% hold.