China stocks

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got back last year bought this same time from china and discussed with Kirk an observation on a new company SINA that all the younger generation there were changing to for cell phone carrier because of new text messaging and other goodies. Price then was about a buck a share now 39.00 --and I didn't buy a single share
Will give a run down on observations this year and if Kirk has time maybe he can make some recommendations.
The most notable is while most of china has very primitive toilets, some just trenches even in businesses they now are starting to go to modern toilets and evry place I went that had one were made by same US manufacter American Standard. Downfall this stock is pretty high around 80 bucks a share.
US food there. Pizza Hut a no go.Not many patrons because menu price WAY to high for most in China--McDonalds ALWAYS packed to the hilt.
Two markets I will be curious to see if Kirk can find any info on that will boom in next 5 years are water treatment as they have no choice now and high grade steel production.
They have many low grade but import most high grade.Reason for anticipated increase is they now have several car plants and coming Olympics in 2008. Would buy company now if available on US markey by name of Krupp from Germany who has joint venture with Shanghai to finish plant in 2006 or might consider one that is on US exchange by name of Posco that is S Korean company doing a lot of exporting there.

 

[selkirk]

Hello DTB glad you are back from China hope the trip went well
will look into the steel companies. agree there should be some infastructure plays.

bought McDonalds $19.50-$21, it is no longer a growth story plan to write some options on it. They should be able to grow their dividend, no longer a growth stock as it was in the past. hopefully managment will realize this and increase dividend.

China will produce much more in the way of steel and will need to import more raw materials, also they will soon have (already some online) massive energy production. Could see them produce aluminum and maybe force the price lower. posted about Alcan before (bought $42, sold $60 cdn.). bought a position in the low $40s bought a much smaller than before, over $50cdn now. still if China starts exporting would hurt Alcan and Alcoa.

Oil China may start importing more oil, oil should go down to $25 but in the years ahead China importing oil will be bullish for oil and oil companies.

Nickel should continue to go up, if the US economy recovers there maybe be more demand, also more demand from China playing this through Falconbridge, and Inco though like Falconbridge slightly better. Also Fording on Toronto that produces coal for steel production. Long life reserves and 10%+ yield.

Will check out those steels DTB and if you spot another China penny stock (SINA) promise I will check on it weekly......


Just in case this bombs (LOL) will not start a new thread for it:

Note: Moydow today closed at $1.81 on Toronto up .17. bought some around $1-$1.10 has been going up in the past two months. was .75 June.

is selling its stake in Ntotoroso to Newmont for Newmont shares. Moydow plans to sell the shares and give most of the money to shareholders which would be about $1.15-$1.25 cdn.

they have been mentioned in two newsletters and has had some good news on some of their other properties, so it has had a good run this week.

my target is $2 but it may go higher, feel the stub (stock after div) should be worth .75-$1 in a good gold market for stocks.


this is a higher risk stock......many things can happen stock could easily lose 20%-25%.......thats my warning.


thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks as always Kirk.---a little on your note on oil companies there as I have been looking into that also. There is one inparticular that catches my eye.

Petro China
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PTR&t=2y

Fundamentals look very good but the estimated price per share projection has me

However a significant plus in my view is Warren Buffet has substantial stake in this company also

Will look to see what happens today before I buy as pretty significant drop yesterday.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
--a little addition on afore mentioned water prob I ran across today http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030917/1/3e8ik.html

a good speculitive penny stock I like to by on this front but not available other than from Singapore,Xetra and Frankfort exchange
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HYFL.SI&d=t

---penny stock selection
Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd CKISF.PK

No absolutely nothing about it except it is in top 10 holdings of Mattews China Fund (3.2 % of assets) and also heavy position in Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (which are ranked 4* and 5* respectively by Morningstar. I got to think they must know something not privy to most to have such a weighted postion on such a cheap($2.15) speculative stock.--if there going to risk millions I might throw in a few chips

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Heres list of stocks purchased on China observations.
Will update periodically please do not expect results Mr Kirk has.
I am in no way remotely close to his savvy and rarely buy much without consulting his input. Just a little something to do.

MAPTX A china mutual fund
bought @ 11.42 currently 11.81

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTY.PK)
bought 8.60 current 9.25

Denway Motors Ltd (DENMF.PK)
bought .62 currently .64

China Unicom Ltd (CHU)
bought 8.01 currently 8.91

American Standard Company Inc (ASD)
bought 83.65 current 86.61

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (CKISF.PK)
bought 2.12 current 2.12
This one is mystery to me? Has never changed a penny since buying???But as I said a lot I leave to be desired on stock analyisis.

 

[ageecee]

Let me get this straight Dogs

You could of bought SINA at a buck and got out at 39.00

You know how many horses you could of bought with that money??

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Worse than that my friend. When I got back last year (Sept)I marked it to buy with SEP contributions in (Dec) It was $1.08. Somehow I got side tracked and never bought a share. Didn't notice it till later when it was about $8 a share and after wiping the tears decided to wait till it had pull back--no pullback and
$39 and change today. Out of range now but bought those above when I got back this year so I wouldn't forget--and all have made good progress "so far"
ASD up $3 today and sitting @ $90 but we all know--here today and gone tomorrow but I believe it pisses me off more on the missing the SINA deal than buying Cisco at $56 and still holding

 

[ageecee]

Next week might have one running at Sam Houston-will post in horse forum if she gets in..

Breders Cup next saturday

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Bud. I'll drop down there and check it out. Still have OTB account funded but haven't made wager since the derby

 

[wareagle]

DTB! Thanks for CHU pick. Got in around 9.25, now around 10.25. I will continue to invest heavily in China. This is the fastest growing mrkt in the world in all aspects. Mark my words, Sept 11 will be remembered in history books as the beginning of the end of the US being the #1 country in the world. China will become #1 very shortly and will continue for the years to come.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thank you As I said I have not bought many stocks in past 5 years without consulting with Kirk 1st but decided to dable on a few from observations in China. I am thinking as you that this will be booming market especially since they do not seem to want to revalue their Yaun despite heat from U.S.

Here is update on these as of this morning before the bell

MAPTX A china mutual fund
bought @ 11.42 currently 12.56

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTY.PK)
bought 8.60 current 12.56

Denway Motors Ltd (DENMF.PK)
bought .62 currently .85

China Unicom Ltd (CHU)
bought 8.01 currently 10.26

American Standard Company Inc (ASD)
bought 83.65 current 94.33

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (CKISF.PK)
bought 2.12 current 2.12
This stock as I said is mystery. Still has not changed. In checking it appears to be conglomorate of many stocks and only changes price bout every 2 months. I'm still out in left field on it.

 

[djv]

DTB I found you. LOL China. Ah yes money to be made. China Mutual funds now amost for any IRA. The growth is there and sad to say many American companies. That's the way it is and then that'se you go to invest. You mentioned American Standard. I can give you about 39 years worth of advise. Yes I did retire from there but I know whats up. Yes stock was 80 now 93. The CEO told all of us 5 years ago. At that time was our new CEO. Im taking this company to 100 bucks a share and then were splitting. Theres alittle up side left but it's not cheap. He just made another move. We make Trane A/C very large machines in my little town. We are moveing out 200 of those jobs to China to build them closer to there delivery point. We are number 1 in that market now. We are going to inlarge our market there for all the building boom that will continue in China for at least 10 more years. Only dumb thing I did was get ride of some of my stock at 86 because I thought the run was done. The other half im sitting on. Have you any idea and Im sure you may. How hard it is to sit on just short of 2000 shares of anything when its 93 bucks a share. I dont know if I can hold off much longer. When retired as I am now that looks so good. Remember upside from here is only made if the stock keeps going up. Because American Standard pays no div's. I mean putting 200 grand to work at 5 to 7% is hard to hold off. I think smart thing for me is to sell another 1000 at the 92/93. If still working the choice would be easy I would ride it to see if he makes 100 a share. But that could take a year or more. But back to just China. I think there will be other lower price shots to take. So if something does go wrong the outlay would be low and not hurt as much. One other thought if American standard splits before or even at 100. Then I would jump in. The true upside inlast mtg I sat on was 110 a share. But as always those estmates come with a lot of what if's.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks for input DJV. Didn't know that is where you retired from. Nice to have someone that worked theres opinion. I wouldn't dare to sway you one way or another on amount of money you have in their stocks but maybe Kirk might have comment. Only reason I bought was from experience in China that every updated bathroom facilty (and not that many yet,most have the porclein holes in the floor) had ASD equipment. Nice little retirement your setting on.:toast:

 

[djv]

DTB you are correct on the porclein side of the business. We have huge plants in china. Was two and i believe we still have two. Much comes back here and much more is sataying There.
We also are big in Anti Locking Braking system for Trucks. Mainley in Europe. Rumor Rumor only Chrysler may come on board as abig customer for all there trucks 1 ton and up. Not a done deal and has been in works at least couple of years. So Have to wonder if a problem may be hoalding up things.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sold position I had had on SBC for some time and put in into a china stock today.
Finally bought the china oil stock PTR I spoke about in initial speculation thread that Warren Buffet holds large stake in.
Bought PTR @ 39.79 pays 5% div
Was a bit of bad timing as it was up $2.71 yesterday,wish I had bought it day earlier but did not sell SBC till yesterday.

update on China stocks

PTR just bought $39.79

MAPTX A china mutual fund
bought @ 11.42 currently 12.67

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTY.PK)
bought 8.60 current 11.70

Denway Motors Ltd (DENMF.PK)
bought .62 currently .90

China Unicom Ltd (CHU)
bought 8.01 currently 9.85

American Standard Company Inc (ASD)
bought 83.65 current 100,74

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (CKISF.PK)
bought 2.12 current 2.21

 

[selkirk]

looking at a few cheap asia stocks but would like to update MOY on the TSX listed in this thread in September

well they have announced the dividend of $1.25, has traded anywhere from .80-.89 after the div was announced closed at .75 down -.06. not a good sign, however could be profit taking as the stock has had a great return.

with the div the stock has made just over 10% since september not a bad return. the stock has much more risk and I have sold most of my position.

will keep some as high risk small cap, decent management, cash for exploration at least short term and projects in Ghana and Newfoundland though early, show promise.

note: believe in general moose pasture stocks (mining small caps) will not repeat their great performance of 2003. so you could wait and buy this stock maybe as low as .50. At that price may add to the position, pending on the news/exploration front.

thanks
selkirk




"Note: Moydow today closed at $1.81 on Toronto up .17. bought some around $1-$1.10 has been going up in the past two months. was .75 June.

is selling its stake in Ntotoroso to Newmont for Newmont shares. Moydow plans to sell the shares and give most of the money to shareholders which would be about $1.15-$1.25 cdn.

they have been mentioned in two newsletters and has had some good news on some of their other properties, so it has had a good run this week.

my target is $2 but it may go higher, feel the stub (stock after div) should be worth .75-$1 in a good gold market for stocks.


this is a higher risk stock......many things can happen stock could easily lose 20%-25%.......thats my warning. "

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Still reading about China being desperate to clean up water supply as noted in initial thread and also disposal of waste in general prior to olympics.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/031224/1/3gv8v.html
Can't find any stocks available in this area. Sounds like boring stocks but might make buck or two if we could find some.
Anyone finds anything that looks lucrative in this area please give a heads up. Thanx

Nice profit on Moydow Kirk.

 

[wareagle]

check these four gems out. all at 52week highs:

CHA
PTR
SHI
SNP

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Bought PTR earlier in month (see above) but will look at other 3 thanks. Will be time to fund SEP soon so will have room will be looking.Will be adding probably 3 or 4 stocks in Jan.

Kirk: Got any thoughts on 2 stocks to add,maybe one of 2 speculative?

 

[selkirk]

DTB on oil/gas junior trading in Canada on Toronto TSX I like (CLL) Conacher oil and gas, talked about it in the stock contest 04 thread at $1.14 it is currently closed at $1.54.

anyways has had a good run from a low of .31 trading near at its high. good management and good properties in western cdn. where the risk comes is the argentina play, risky play that could work out.

the Cdn. western properties have less risk political/drilling. anyways the stock is behaving well, if the stock falls off .25 will probably sell most of the position off.

harder to find good junior oil/gas stocks, my target short term is $1.75 and 6 months to 1 year is $2 cdn.

will have some more soon. hopefully US and Asia plays.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Kirk Had CLL bookmarked in my watch list from your previous writeup.

another question if I might.

Suppose you have stock that increases in value. At what point and what situations occur that you would sell and take profit vs holding for more profit. I think my personal worst attribute with stocks is letting emotion dictate when to sell. Any thoughts you have on matter would be appreciated.