*The Triple Option: College football Week 4 picks, predictions and eats*
*Believe it or not, despite a diminutive frame, I played cornerback back in my high school days and while it takes a lot quickness and great reaction to play that position, it comes with one of the harshest lessons in sports – having to bounce back after getting beat for a touchdown.*
I have played a lot of sports in my life. Basketball, baseball, football, rugby and golf among others and without a doubt I have never experienced anything that requires more mental fortitude than playing defensive back. You could be having the game of your life, completely shutting down the guy across from you and boom, you get beat for a 40-yard bomb. It is an awful feeling and just plain sucks.
But to be a successful corner, you must realize that getting beat will happen and you must put that out of your mind and focus on the next play. And there are a lot of similarities when it comes to sports betting.
I get the same feeling when I have a losing week in this column. It’s a real gut shot. I hate losing. You put in a lot of time and effort to present a good rationale for making a pick and then they play the games and sometimes despite your best effort you lose (thank you very much Boise State et al).
Yes, last week was our second consecutive losing week, but we’re going to use the same attitude when it comes to this week’s plays. It happened. It sucks. And we’re moving on. And to help matters out, we’re going to be backing some experienced quarterbacks going up against those who may be a little overmatched, starting with the exciting Nick Fitzgerald for Mississippi State.
The senior duel-threat quarterback, leads a talented Bulldogs offense, which loves to pound the rock, but will also make you pay if they don’t respect the pass. Mix in running back Kylin Hill and you have a recipe for a potent offense.
Mississippi State has passed every test with flying colors, covering with ease in two games where it was 30-plus point favorites. And in its only real test, a trip to Manhattan where Bill Snyder always has his Wildcats ready to play, the Bulldogs rumbled to a 31-10 victory as 6.5-point faves.
On the other side of the ball, Kentucky is just too one-dimensional on offense and the Bulldogs stout defense should make life tough for the Wildcats. Kentucky also failed to cover as a moderate to large favorite in both of its home games against lesser opponents.
Kentucky is obviously one of the feel-good stories in college football, with their 3-0 start and of course beating Florida for the first time in nearly my entire life. But their line for this weekend’s home game against Mississippi State seems disrespectful to the Bulldogs.
Like I said before, people are undervaluing the Bulldogs in this spot. They run all over the Wildcats.
*Pick:* Mississippi State -9.5
*Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (-5, 54.5)*
The big news in this matchup is obviously the benching of Louisville quarterback Juwan Pass and the immediate reaction was for oddsmakers to move the line from Cavaliers -3 to -5 (it has since come down to -4.5), but I don’t think it should matter either way.
This Virginia team isn’t really special at any one thing, but it doesn’t do anything really poorly at the same time and as a result, is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season. It runs a balanced offense, led by duel-threat quarterback in Bryce Perkins. The junior is completing 64 percent of his passes for 670 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
He is joined in the backfield by Jordan Ellis, who has already racked up 380 yards and five scores on the ground at a clip of 7.5 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Louisville’s run defense is allowing 4.2 yards per attempt to the tune of 188 yards per game and the offense ranks near the bottom of the nation in most major categories. And before you go telling me Pass’ replacement Malik Cunningham has been better, he’s done that against Indiana State and Western Kentucky.
The Cardinals are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. That number improves to 2-10 this weekend.
*Pick:* Virginia -5
*Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-16, 60.5)*
I’m all in on Will Grier in 2018. The dude has a special arm and he has a chance to take the Mountaineers a long way this season. (A November 23 versus Oklahoma could be huge).
Grier, a Heisman favorite, is completing 76.7 percent of his passes for 761 with nine touchdowns to just one interception. He has great weapons in Gary Jennings Jr. and David Sills and three running backs who are averaging over six yards per carry.
That means trouble for a K-State team that ranks 86th in total defense and 105th against the run, surrendering 201.3 yards per game on the ground.
The Wildcats have also not found their footing on offense either, barely beating South Dakota State as 24-point faves in their opener and as we said earlier, getting run over at home by the Bulldogs. They won’t be able to keep up with Grier and the Mountaineers in this one.
*Pick:* West Virginia -16
Last week: 1-2
Season to date: 4-5
*Believe it or not, despite a diminutive frame, I played cornerback back in my high school days and while it takes a lot quickness and great reaction to play that position, it comes with one of the harshest lessons in sports – having to bounce back after getting beat for a touchdown.*
I have played a lot of sports in my life. Basketball, baseball, football, rugby and golf among others and without a doubt I have never experienced anything that requires more mental fortitude than playing defensive back. You could be having the game of your life, completely shutting down the guy across from you and boom, you get beat for a 40-yard bomb. It is an awful feeling and just plain sucks.
But to be a successful corner, you must realize that getting beat will happen and you must put that out of your mind and focus on the next play. And there are a lot of similarities when it comes to sports betting.
I get the same feeling when I have a losing week in this column. It’s a real gut shot. I hate losing. You put in a lot of time and effort to present a good rationale for making a pick and then they play the games and sometimes despite your best effort you lose (thank you very much Boise State et al).
Yes, last week was our second consecutive losing week, but we’re going to use the same attitude when it comes to this week’s plays. It happened. It sucks. And we’re moving on. And to help matters out, we’re going to be backing some experienced quarterbacks going up against those who may be a little overmatched, starting with the exciting Nick Fitzgerald for Mississippi State.
The senior duel-threat quarterback, leads a talented Bulldogs offense, which loves to pound the rock, but will also make you pay if they don’t respect the pass. Mix in running back Kylin Hill and you have a recipe for a potent offense.
Mississippi State has passed every test with flying colors, covering with ease in two games where it was 30-plus point favorites. And in its only real test, a trip to Manhattan where Bill Snyder always has his Wildcats ready to play, the Bulldogs rumbled to a 31-10 victory as 6.5-point faves.
On the other side of the ball, Kentucky is just too one-dimensional on offense and the Bulldogs stout defense should make life tough for the Wildcats. Kentucky also failed to cover as a moderate to large favorite in both of its home games against lesser opponents.
Kentucky is obviously one of the feel-good stories in college football, with their 3-0 start and of course beating Florida for the first time in nearly my entire life. But their line for this weekend’s home game against Mississippi State seems disrespectful to the Bulldogs.
Like I said before, people are undervaluing the Bulldogs in this spot. They run all over the Wildcats.
*Pick:* Mississippi State -9.5
*Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (-5, 54.5)*
The big news in this matchup is obviously the benching of Louisville quarterback Juwan Pass and the immediate reaction was for oddsmakers to move the line from Cavaliers -3 to -5 (it has since come down to -4.5), but I don’t think it should matter either way.
This Virginia team isn’t really special at any one thing, but it doesn’t do anything really poorly at the same time and as a result, is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season. It runs a balanced offense, led by duel-threat quarterback in Bryce Perkins. The junior is completing 64 percent of his passes for 670 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
He is joined in the backfield by Jordan Ellis, who has already racked up 380 yards and five scores on the ground at a clip of 7.5 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Louisville’s run defense is allowing 4.2 yards per attempt to the tune of 188 yards per game and the offense ranks near the bottom of the nation in most major categories. And before you go telling me Pass’ replacement Malik Cunningham has been better, he’s done that against Indiana State and Western Kentucky.
The Cardinals are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. That number improves to 2-10 this weekend.
*Pick:* Virginia -5
*Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-16, 60.5)*
I’m all in on Will Grier in 2018. The dude has a special arm and he has a chance to take the Mountaineers a long way this season. (A November 23 versus Oklahoma could be huge).
Grier, a Heisman favorite, is completing 76.7 percent of his passes for 761 with nine touchdowns to just one interception. He has great weapons in Gary Jennings Jr. and David Sills and three running backs who are averaging over six yards per carry.
That means trouble for a K-State team that ranks 86th in total defense and 105th against the run, surrendering 201.3 yards per game on the ground.
The Wildcats have also not found their footing on offense either, barely beating South Dakota State as 24-point faves in their opener and as we said earlier, getting run over at home by the Bulldogs. They won’t be able to keep up with Grier and the Mountaineers in this one.
*Pick:* West Virginia -16
Last week: 1-2
Season to date: 4-5
