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[Cnotes53]

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
November 27, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

ACC Championship - Clemson Tigers vs. Pitt Panthers Tide

The Clemson Tigers have been common participants in the College Football Playoff the past few years, and they can punch their ticket once again by claiming the ACC Championship Game. Clemson will face off against the Pitt Panthers in a neutral site matchup.

The Tigers are undefeated on the year and clearly the superior team as Pitt is barely ranked in the top-25 and Clemson comes in at No. 2. The Panthers would love to pull the upset but it would be a lot to ask. Look for the Tigers to wrap up their spot in the national championship semifinals with a victory in NCAA football gambling.

This NCAA football game between the Clemson Tigers and Pitt Panthers will be held at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina at 8 p.m ET on Friday, December 1st, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on ABC.

We'll have NCAA football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Clemson Tigers are 12-0 on the year. They are an outrageous 27-point favorite in this matchup as the oddsmakers don?t believe this will even be a contest. Clemson is the -3800 favorite on the moneyline while Pitt is the +1423 underdog. This would truly be one of the biggest upsets in conference championship game history if the Panthers pull out a win.

The scoring total is listed at 53 points as the oddsmakers have a hard time believing Pitt will get much of anything going offensively in NCAA football odds.

Key Stat

27.8. That?s the number of points scored and points allowed for Pitt on the season. The even point-differential is not a good sign for the team?s shot at success in this one as it tells more about the team than its 6-2 conference record.

Pittsburgh?s defense has had its issues and Clemson is expected to take advantage. The Tigers, by comparison, are averaging 45.7 points per game while allowing only 14.0. No team has come within 20 points of Clemson in its past seven contests and Pitt will be hard-pressed to do so in this one.

Player To Watch

Trevor Lawrence -- The Clemson quarterback has been fantastic this season and will aim to keep it up against Pitt in this one. Lawrence has thrown for 2,488 yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Lawrence has not thrown more than one interception in any game this year and the Panthers will likely need to force multiple turnovers in order to have a shot at the upset.

Lawrence is coming off an impressive performance. He was 27-of-36 for 393 yards with a touchdown in a 56-35 victory over South Carolina. Even though Lawrence is only a freshman he has not been nervous under the bright lights and should dominate once again in this one.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

Clemson has all but assured itself of a College Football Playoff bid and will secure it with an easy win over Pittsburgh. While the Tigers won?t have a lot of trouble, this one is unlikely to finish with a margin greater than 27 points. Once Clemson has the game in hand, it will be interested in getting the key players out of the game to avoid injury in preparation for the national semifinals.

Pittsburgh is the choice to cover this spread, and the ?under? is the call because Clemson is going to take its foot off the gas in the second half in NCAA football gambling.

NCAAFB ATS Pick: Clemson Tigers 34, Pittsburgh Panthers 13

 

[Cnotes53]

Northwestern vs. Ohio State
November 27, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Betting Preview
Big Ten Title Game ? Northwestern vs. Ohio State

The Ohio State Buckeyes are two-touchdown favorites in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday against the Northwestern Wildcats. This game that can be seen on FOX will see the winner head to the Rose Bowl unless the Buckeyes can crack the top four in the CFP Rankings and make the College Football Playoff. Let?s look at this matchup on Saturday night and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, December 1, 2018, 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
College Football Odds at BetDSI: Ohio State -14, O/U 59
Northwestern vs. Ohio State TV Coverage: FOX

It is very obvious that the oddsmakers and public are remembering what Ohio State did last week against Michigan because the Buckeyes shouldn?t be laying two touchdowns in this neutral site game in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes did score a ton of points last week to beat rival Michigan, but the Ohio State defense has not played well all season. And keep in mind that Ohio State has failed to cover the spread in seven of their 12 games this season.

Northwestern is 8-4 SU this season and 6-4 ATS. They are averaging 23.7 points per game and giving up 21.7 per contest. The Wildcats have gone under the total in seven of their 12 games this season.

Ohio State is 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS. Ohio State is averaging 43.3 points per game, but giving up 25.8 points per contest. They have gone over then total six times and under six times.

Player to Watch

The Buckeyes have the player to watch in this one, as quarterback Dwayne Haskins has had a great season. He threw for 396 yards and six touchdowns last week in the win over Michigan. He has thrown 41 TD passes this season, the most ever by a quarterback in the Big Ten. The Wildcats will have to find a way to contain Haskins if they are to stay in this contest. Northwestern is just 80th in the country in passing defense, so they could have trouble against Haskins on Saturday night.

Key Stats

Ohio State has dominated this series, winning 30 of the last 31 meetings. This year?s Northwestern team has played well against good teams, going 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Wildcats are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. The Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Looking at the total, the Under is 5-1 in the Wildcats last 6 games overall. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.

Northwestern vs. Ohio State Picks

This is a very difficult game to pick a side because the Buckeyes are capable of blowing out Northwestern if they play anywhere close to how they played last week against Michigan. The problem with taking the Buckeyes is that they are wildly inconsistent and they have a poor defense. The problem with backing Northwestern is that Ohio State has more talent. I think the better choice in this game is to play the total.

I have no idea how Ohio State has gone under six times this season, as they score a ton of points and play no defense. It should be noted that two of those games were against Rutgers and Tulane who scored a combined nine points. Northwestern should be able to move the ball effectively throughout this game against an Ohio State defense that has given up 90 points the last two weeks.

On the other side, there is no question that the Buckeyes are going to score. They are averaging over 43 points per game, 7th best in the country. I can?t see the Buckeyes getting slowed down that often by the Northwestern defense. I am a little surprised this total is not in the 60?s, as I think both offenses will put up at least 30 points. I will go over the total at BetDSI for the Big Ten title game.

Northwestern vs. Ohio State Pick: Over 59 at BetDSI
Northwestern vs. Ohio State Score Prediction: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 30

 

[Cnotes53]

AP All-America Watch: Star matchups for championship weekend
November 27, 2018
By The Associated Press

The Associated Press has been honoring college football's best with an All-America team since 1925. The full three-team AP All-America selections will be unveiled in December. The final All-America watch of the season features All-America matchups from each of this weekend's Power Five conference championship games.

ACC

No. 2 Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

The Tigers have several All-America contenders, including defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell, linebacker Tre Lamar, offensive tackle Mitch Hyatt and running back Travis Etienne. Yes, Clemson is loaded. The key matchup for Pitt to compete with the Tigers will come along the Panthers' offensive line. Offensive tackle Stefano Millin, a grad transfer from Kent State, has been the best player on a line that has paved the way for one of the best running games in the country. Qadree Ollison has been the beneficiary, rushing for 1,134 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6.44 yards per carry.

Big Ten

No. 6 Ohio State vs. Northwestern

Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins is ripping up Big Ten passing records, with 42 touchdown passes and 4,081 yards setting new single-season marks. He spreads the ball around enough so that no one receiver has numbers that place him among the nation's leaders, but Parris Campbell has 903 yards and 11 touchdowns to lead the team. The Wildcats secondary has been badly banged up recently. When healthy, cornerback Montre Hartage is one of the best in the Big Ten at his position. He did not play against Illinois, but the Wildcats could really use him to slow down Haskins.

Big 12

No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Texas

No conference produces All-America candidates at wide receiver like the Big 12, with a combination of quality quarterbacks, up-tempo spread offenses and some less-than-inspiring defenses. The Sooners and Longhorns are loaded with playmakers on the outside, but the ones with the best case to be All-Americans are Oklahoma's Marquise Brown and Texas' Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Brown, nicknamed Hollywood for his hometown in Florida, is only 5-foot-10 and 168 pounds, but he is an elusive game-breaker. The junior averages 105 yards per game, 18.06 per catch and has scored 10 touchdowns. Humphrey is a different model of receiver, but just as difficult to defend at 6-4, 225 pounds. He leads the Longhorns with 72 catches for 1,058 yards and eight scores.

Pac-12

No. 10 Washington vs. No. 17 Utah

Two of the leading contenders for Pac-12 defensive player of the year and spots on the All-America team at linebacker will be in the middle of a game with a Rose Bowl berth at stake. Utah's Chase Hansen is a converted safety who has been all over the field this season. The 230-pound senior leads the conference and is fourth in the nation in tackles for loss with 22, including five sacks, and has made two interceptions, returning one for a touchdown. Washington's Ben Burr-Kirven is undersized at 6-foot and 220 pounds, but he is a tackling machine, tied for the national lead at 12.92 per game.

SEC

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Georgia

There will be a lot of individual talent on the field in Atlanta for a national championship game rematch that features a true All-America matchup to highlight. Tide receiver Jerry Jeudy was a midseason All-American and is Tua Tagovailoa's most frequent target. The sophomore is averaging 19.27 yards per catch and has scored 11 touchdowns in 56 receptions. Georgia counters with one of the best cornerbacks in the country in Deandre Baker, who has two interceptions and nine passes broken up even with teams largely avoiding him.

 

[Cnotes53]

Games to Watch - Week 14
November 27, 2018
By YouWager.eu

College Football Week 14: Games to Watch

This coming weekend will arguably be the biggest of the year, as it is when we will see the conference championship games take center stage. It goes without saying that these are the games that we are going to focus on here, but since we will be looking at the Power 5 conferences a little later in the week, we will spend out time here talking about some of the smaller conferences and the games being played there.

These are not games that will have any impact on the final playoff standings, but they are still match-ups worthy of your time and your wagering dollars join us review them with all odds, props and futures for each game sponsored by YouWager.eu.

UCF Knights (-3 -115) vs. Memphis Tigers (+3 -105)

The AAC Championship Game will provide UCF with the opportunity to continue an unbeaten streak that has now extended through two full seasons. The problem that the Knight have here is that they will be forced to try and win without their QB McKenzie Milton, who went out of last weeks game with a truly gruesome knee injury. It?s worth remembering that the Knight had to come from behind to beat Memphis 31-30 when they met earlier in the season, so they could well be in trouble in this one without their starting QB. The Knights are talented enough to rise up and put on a show here, but I think they come up short.

ULL Ragin? Cajuns (+17? -110) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (-17? -110)

Of all the teams that play in the Sun Belt, it may well be the Mountaineers that we all know best. After all, they have, over the years, made a habit of scaring the life out of Power 5 teams, just as they did in Week 1 this season against Penn State. The Mountaineers needed a Troy loss last week to get into this one and will be going against a Cajuns team that won 3-straight to win their division. When these two met earlier in the season, it was the Mountaineers who came away with a 10-point win. I think we can expect more of the same here.

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UAB Blazers (+1 -110) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-1 -110)

In a strange twist of scheduling, these two teams will be meeting for the second straight week, although this time, the winner will be walking away with the Conference USA title. Last week, it was the Blue Raiders scoring the comfortable 27-3 win in a game that they started as a 3-point underdog. That meant that the Blazers ended the season on a 2-game losing skid, although they did have the division locked up by then. The bookies have this as a close one, and while I don?t like the fact that UAB haven?t won for a couple of weeks, I think they get the win here.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+2? -105) vs. Boise State Broncos (-2? -115)

Boise State come into this one with the opportunity to repeat as champions of the Mountain West Conference against a Fresno State Bulldogs team that they have already beaten once this season. That win was part of a 7-game win streak that the Broncos went on to close out the season, although it was a tight defensive battle that ended in a 24-17 win for Boise. Let?s not count out Fresno State here, though, as the loss to the Broncos is the only defeat they have taken in their last 10 games. I am on Fresno State to get revenge and emerge as the conference champion.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack

If the NFL Draft was today (it isn?t), this would be the draft order:

1) 49ers 2-9

2) Cardinals 2-9

3) Raiders 2-9

4) Jets 3-8

5) Giants 3-8

6) Jaguars 3-8

Quote of the Day
?Listen, here?s the thing. If you can?t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker.?
Mike McDermott in Rounders

Wednesday?s quiz
Where was Mike Krzyzewski the basketball coach before moving to Duke?

Tuesday?s quiz
Tennessee Titans were the Houston Oilers before moving to Tennessee.

Monday?s quiz
Mike Shula was the football coach at Alabama before Nick Saban.

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Wednesday?s 2nd list of 13: Catching up on college hoop

If you spent all of November watching football and you missed the start of college basketball season, here is some of what you missed??.

13) Gonzaga 89, Duke 87? Finals of Maui Classic was a terrific game; Duke led 2-0, but that was it- they were down by 16 with 15:54 left, before tying game late. Zags made 10-19 on the arc, and they were playing without Tillie, who made 47.9% of his 3?s last year.

12) Virginia 53, Wisconsin 46? Predictably slow-paced game (58 possessions) in final of the Battle for Atlantis. Teams combined to go 6-28 on arc; Badgers only got to foul line three times and forced only five turnovers (-8). If you bet the under, this was a rocking chair game.

11) Kansas 87, Tennessee 81 OT? Vols start three seniors, two juniors, led by 8 early in 2nd half, but three Jayhawks played 40:00+ in this OT thriller. Kansas made 44% of its 3?s in its 5-0 start. Tennessee is #36 experience team, Kansas #283.

10) Virginia Tech 89, Purdue 83? Finals of Charleston tourney elevated Hokies into the top 25, which they may have floundered by losing at Penn State last night. Tech outscored Purdue 19-7 on foul line. Both teams made over 40% of their 3?s.

9) Duke 118, Kentucky 84? Result like this in a season opener distorted everyone?s view of the season; did Duke become a little overrated because they played so well in this game? If you?re John Calipari, how do you restore the young Wildcats? confidence- they were down 91-54 at one point.

8) Louisville 82, Michigan State 78 OT? Chris Mack has a tough job, following Rick Pitino at a place where the fanbase isn?t exactly patient, but this win gets him off on the right foot.

7) San Diego 70, Colorado 64? Toreros are #6 experience team in America; they?re 5-1 with a 3-point loss at Washington. The middle of the WCC is better this season than it has been for a few years. San Diego starts four seniors, so this is a big year for them.

6) Buffalo 99, West Virginia 94 OT? Bob Huggins has young guards this year, which isn?t a good thing, but Buffalo is really good and should dominate the MAC. Bulls were down 69-56 with 8:05 left in regulation, but they forced 19 turnovers (+8) and got a great road win.

5) UConn 83, Syracuse 76? Orangemen don?t leave home before Christmas too much; they made only 23.3% of their 3?s in their first five games. This was Danny Hurley?s first statement win as the new UConn coach, coming in New York City, where it was like an old Big East conference tournament game.

4) Michigan 73, Villanova 46? Wildcats graduated four guys from LY?s national champs, and Michigan took its frustrations out for losing the national title game to Villanova eight months ago- this game was 49-17 at one point. Another early season brickfest, with teams combining to make only 8-32 on the arc.

3) Ohio State 64, Cincinnati 56? Good road win for Buckeyes squad that is experience team #281, while Cincy is #131 in experience. OSU led 55-39 with 5:23 left, before Bearcats made a late run but fell short. Buckeyes also have a road win at Creighton already.

2) Seton Hall 83, Miami 81? Finals of Wooden Legacy tournament in Fullerton; when they announce the Field of 68 in March, games like this will carry some weight, even though it was played almost four months before Selection Sunday. Pirates are #233 experience team; this is a great win for them.

1) Texas 92, North Carolina 89? Longhorns look to be improved this year, after going 30-37 the last two years. Texas lost to Michigan State the next night, but they?ve got this win and a neutral court win over Arkansas- the #256 experience Longhorns hope to be a factor in March.


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Wednesday?s List of 13: College basketball knowledge??.

13) Top four rated conferences so far this season:

Big X, Big 14, ACC and the Big East.

12) Teams with least experience in country, among teams in the betting rotation:

Kentucky, UCLA, Cal State-Northridge, Maryland, Chattanooga and Duke

One of those six teams has a lot more talent than the other five.

11) Minutes Continuity measures how much guys have played together more than their experience- teams cobbled together by transfers are rated low in this metric:

Highest: Washington, Kansas State, Brown, Cal State-Fullerton, George Mason

Lowest: Tex-Arlington, Chattanooga, Idaho, Wichita State, Oakland

10) Teams who used their bench the most so far this year:
Denver, Manhattan, Georgia, Princeton, NC State

Teams who used their bench the least:
San Diego, Furman, Georgia State, St John?s, Boston College

9) Challengers to Gonzaga?s dynasty in the WCC are changing a little. St Mary?s is only 3-3 to start the season, but San Francisco and LMU are both still unbeaten. Conference seems to be a little deeper this season; BYU is still pretty good and San Diego seems improved, too.

8) Mike Davis is the guy who replaced Bob Knight as the basketball coach at Indiana, which was an enormous job for a rookie coach. That was 18 years ago.

18 years and three jobs later (he has won at all his coaching stops) Davis is now the coach at Detroit Mercy in the Horizon League. His son Antone is a freshman for the Titans, and the kid can shoot a basketball- he?s made 24 of his last 38 3-point shots.

Horizon League has slipped of late (ranked #24 LY, were as high as #10 in 2011) and Davis got this job because the Titans are 16-47 the last five years. Detroit?s last winning season was in 2013, when their best player was the then-coach?s son (Ray McCallum Jr).

Detroit starts young Davis and four seniors, so they?ll be an interesting follow this winter. They also have five true freshmen, six JC transfers and two graduate transfers.

7) Rough start to the season for the Pac-12; Oregon is their highest-rated team, but the Ducks lost at home to Texas Southern Monday, as a 24-point favorite. Not looking good right now for the Pac-12 to get a lot of at-large spots in the NCAA?s.

6) Texas Southern uses November/December to fund its program, playing a ridiculous number of road games for guarantee fees. Here is who they?ve played so far:

Nov 6, won 72-69 at Baylor
Nov 10, lost 104-67 at Gonzaga
Nov 12, lost 85-73 at Iowa State
Nov 14, lost 103-64 at San Diego State
Nov 18, lost 85-63 at Evansville
Nov 26, won 89-84 at Oregon

Their first Division I home game is January 19th. January freakin? 19th.

5) Teams who have taken the highest % of 3-point shots:
Drake, Eastern Washington, Villanova, Siena, North Dakota State

4) Teams who have made the highest % of 3-point shots:
Indiana State, New Mexico, Detroit, South Dakota State, Creighton

3) Teams playing the fastest tempos so far this season:
FIU, Marshall, Eastern Kentucky, Citadel, Rider, Green Bay

Teams playing slowest tempo so far this season:
Virginia, Siena, Marist, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Houston

2) As of Monday night, there were still 15 kids in the country who?ve taken 2+ foul shots per game and made all of them, led by Oakland?s Jaevin Cumberland, at 26-26.

1) Oakland?s Braden Norris was leading the country in 3-point %age, making 12 of his 14 shots behind the arc. Ian Sistare of Dartmouth was next, at 11-14.

 

[Cnotes53]

Pac-12 Championship Preview
November 27, 2018
By Joe Williams

Matchup: Utah vs. Washington
Date: Friday, Nov. 30
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
Line, Total: Huskies -5, 44.5

The Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off on Friday night at Levi's Stadium, and we'll get some new blood in the battle. The Utah Utes (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) survived in the South Division, and they will be making the first-ever appearance in the league's title game. In fact, it might be the school's most important game since Kyle Whittingham took them to the Sugar Bowl against Alabama back in 2008.

The Washington Huskies (9-3 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) surprised the 10-win Washington State Cougars last weekend in the Apple Cup, pushing their rivals out of first place to claim the Pac-12 North for themselves. The season started with championship expectations of high proportions. However, a loss in a neutral-site battle against Auburn in the opener, and a couple of conference road setbacks against Oregon and California forced the Huskies to refocus.

The Utes lost in their conference opener back on Sept. 15 against the Huskies by a 21-7 score at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City as the 'under' (45.5) connected. The Utes followed that loss with a 28-24 setback in Pullman against Washington State, and an appearance in the conference championship game certainly didn't appear very possible with an 0-2 SU league start. However, Utah pulled together for an impressive 40-21 road victory at Stanford on Oct. 6, kicking off a four-game winning streak and cover streak to get right back into the thick of things. During the span the offense posted 40 or more points and things were humming again. The only loss since Oct. 6 was a 38-20 loss at Arizona State, but the team rebounded with three straight wins against Oregon and Colorado, as well as their rivalry game in the Holy War against Brigham Young in the season finale, 35-27. After a 1-3 ATS start, Utah ended up 6-2 ATS over their final eight outings.

The Huskies are making their second appearance in three seasons in Santa Clara, representing the North Division. They rolled past Colorado 41-10 in the 2016 installment to easily cover as 8 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (55.5) cashed in that one. As mentioned, Washington won their conference opener Sept. 15 in SLC, and they fired out to a 3-0 SU/1-2 ATS start in the conference. They lost a heartbreaker in Oregon on Oct. 13, dropping a 30-27 decision in overtime, a game which could have been a win in the fourth quarter if not for a missed field goal. While that game might have knocked them out of contention for a national playoff spot, a stunning 12-10 loss at Cal on Oct. 27 looked like a potential death blow to their conference title hopes. The Huskies went 2-9 ATS in the first 11 outings, including an 0-6 ATS run from Oct. 6 through Nov. 17. However, they won in a snowy Apple Cup in Washington State to find their way back to the Bay Area and a potential Rose Bowl bid.

The Huskies ranked 52nd in the nation in total yards (421.2 YPG), while posting a very ordinary ranking of 64th in passing yards (236.2 YPG). They were a very ordinary 53rd in rushing yardage, too, posting 185.0 yards per contests with 28.0 PPG, ranking 77th in the country.

Senior QB Jake Browning took another step backward after his magical 2016-17 season. He completed 65.1 percent of his pass attempts (196-for-301) for just 2,692 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 114 yards and four scores this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin missed some time due to injury at the end of October, but he still managed to roll up 1,076 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns, including 143 yards and a score in the win against Utah in mid-September. Sophomore RB Salvon Ahmed, the heir apparent to Gaskin in the backfield, posted 576 yards and seven touchdowns while actually outgaining Gaskin in yards per carry (6.3 to 5.1). Junior WR Aaron Fuller was good for a team-high 754 yards on 49 grabs with four touchdowns, while sophomore WR Ty Jones, a Utah native, led the team with six receiving scores.

This defense is championship caliber, and the secondary is littered with NFL prospects. Washington allowed 311.2 total yards per game which ranked 13th in the land, and their 16.5 points per game allowed was good for eighth in the country. Junior S Taylor Rapp is a game changer and heavy hitter in the secondary.

Utah averaged 414.0 total yards per game to rank 61st in the country, while the team scored 30.8 PPG to check in 54th in the nation. It was all about the run game, as they rolled up 201.0 yards per game to finish 40th in the land. Like Washington, it all starts and stops with defense for Utah. They were 15th in the country in total yards allowed (317.1 YPC), while yielding just 101.6 yards per game on the ground to finish sixth in the nation. They also allowed 19.2 PPG to end up 17th in the country.

Junior QB Tyler Huntley (collarbone) is listed as questionable for Friday's game. He completed 149-of-233 passes for 1,762 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while also posting 304 rushing yards with four scores. He is a dual-threat signal caller for sure, checking in third on the team in rushing. If he cannot go it would be freshman QB Jason Shelley (54-of-96, 723 yards, three TD, one INT) taking the reins. No matter who is under center, they'll be handing off to junior RB Zack Moss, who led the team with 1,092 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns. Junior RB Armand Shyne is the change-of-pace back, posting 442 yards and five scores on 95 carries. WR Brittain Covey is the Swiss Army Knife for Utah. He ran for a score, had a receiving touchdown and he was the primary kickoff and punt return specialist, too. He ranked 103rd in the country with 1,137 all-purpose yards.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Utes head into the game 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances on Friday, for whatever that's worth. They're also 7-1 ATS in their past eight appearances on a grass surface, while going 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record. Utah has cashed in four of the past five outings on a neutral site field, while cashing in six of their past seven conference tilts. They have covered six of the past eight overall.

-- The Huskies have also excelled on Fridays, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight on the day. However, they're struggled with just one cover across the past eight conference battles, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning sides. The Huskies have also failed to cover in each of their past five appearances on a grass surface.

-- The 'over' has connected in four straight for Utah against teams with a winning overall mark, although the under is 7-3 in the past 10 outings on grass.

-- For Washington, it's been all 'under' all the time. The under is 9-3 in their past 12 overall, while going 6-2 across the past eight neutral-site battles. In addition, the under has hit in eight of the past nine games against teams with a winning record.

-- In this series, the underdog has hit in five of the past six battles, while the 'over' is 4-1 across the past five battles, with the under hitting earlier this season.

Pac-12 Championship History

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP (2011-18)
Team Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2018 Utah-Washington - - -
2017 Stanford-USC USC -3.5 (58.5) USC 31-28 Underdog-Over
2016 Washington-Colorado Washington -8.5 (55.5) Washington 41-10 Favorite-Under
2015 Stanford-USC Stanford -4.5 (59) Stanford 41-22 Favorite-Over
2014 Oregon-Arizona Oregon -14.5 (72.5) Oregon 51-13 Favorite-Under
2013 Stanford-Arizona State Arizona State -3 (53.5) Stanford 38-14 Underdog-Under
2012 Stanford-UCLA Stanford -8 (44) Stanford 27-24 Underdog-Over
2011 Oregon-UCLA Oregon -31 (66.5) Oregon 49-31 Underdog-Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday's Best Bet
November 28, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

MAC Championship Game
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo

With no more full college football slates to hunt underdogs on, last week's Upset Alert piece was the final one of the year. It was a profitable season overall (22-18 ATS), highlighted by the great results I had with large underdogs, but all of that is simply in the past now as it's on to individual game breakdowns for Conference Championship weekend.

The festivities get started with the MAC Championship on Friday night and that's where my first play of the weekend comes from, as the Northern Illinois Huskies are back in this game for the seventh time in nine years (3-3 SU previous six) after a two-year hiatus from this contest. The Huskies are catching about a FG currently against a high-powered Buffalo Bulls attack, who as a program are 1-0 SU in their only other MAC Championship game appearance 10 years ago. So which side gets to lift that trophy on Friday night?

Sportsbetting.ag Odds: Buffalo (-3.5); Total set at 49

The first thing many like to look for in these conference title games is whether the matchup is a rematch or not, and if so, which team is looking to avenge that earlier loss. That thought need not apply to this game as these two division winners were lucky enough to avoid one another during the season, as this really is a clashing of styles between the two. Northern Illinois is the defense-first, team that loves to slug it out with anyone, while Buffalo prefers to run and shoot as they try to score 40+ each time out there.

This game will likely be decided by which team can dictate the style of play the longest, and if you look at the current betting percentages offered up at VegasInsider.com ? 70% and 90%+ on Buffalo ATS and ML respectively ? it appears as though the majority of bettors have already voiced their opinion on which program they believe that to be.

However, while I'm not one to be particularly fond of old adages like ?defense wins championships,? I do believe it applies rather well to this game. I say that because Northern Illinois' defense is for real in allowing just 20.9 points per game this year, a number that drops to 19.75/game in MAC play. When you consider that Buffalo's two outright losses this year came in the only two games they failed to score 20 or more points ? including a 52-17 blowout loss against an Ohio team that Northern Illinois beat 24-21 ? things do line up rather nicely for Northern Illinois' chances on Friday.

Furthermore, the Huskies may have the worse overall record at 7-5 SU, having stumbled to the finish line with two straight outright losses as favorites, but they are the only team of the two that is battle tested in terms of squaring off against the bigger programs. Those two losses at the end of the year came after the Huskies had clinched the division so you've got to give them some leeway there, while their other three defeats came against Iowa, Utah and Florida State.

Utah's playing in their own conference title game later on Friday, and while those games didn't end particularly well for the Huskies, it's the willingness to test themselves against that caliber of program that stands out as a positive in a high stakes game like this. Add in a win over BYU in their non-conference play and the Huskies won't crumble under the pressure of the big stage on Friday.

Conversely, Buffalo's non-conference schedule finished with a much better 3-1 SU record, but their opponents were Delaware State (FCS program), Temple, Rutgers, and Army. Army was the team that handed the Bulls their lone non-conference loss, but outside of the Temple game, those are some very weak foes the Bulls squared off with. Those games are nice to pad your wins and build some early season confidence, but they don't do much for big games like this one. And when you consider that the two teams to beat Buffalo this year (Army, Ohio) completely gashed the Bulls on the ground for the full 60 minutes ? Army rushed for 281 yards (4.4 per rush), and Ohio rushed for 437 (7.8 per rush) ? a run-first team like Northern Illinois that plays phenomenal defense behind that should have little issue finding offensive success in a game like this.

So while I won't go as far as stating that the ?wrong team is favored? in this game, I will be taking the points with the Huskies in this spot. That defense they've got, the team's overall experience vs ?the big boys? this year, and Buffalo being so reliant on an offense that has crumbled in the two outings when things didn't got well for them early on makes taking the points the only way to look.

Don't forget about the fact that this line opened up at -4 as well and even with all of that Buffalo support on the side and total, we've actually seen the number move in Northern Illinois' favor. Put it all together and you should be able to score the first conference championship title of 2018 for defensive football as Northern Illinois could very easily win this game outright.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Best Bet: Northern Illinois +3.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bet
November 28, 2018
By BetDSI

Big 12 Championship Game
Oklahoma vs. Texas

All good things must come to an end, and the 8-0 ATS run I had been on with these Saturday best bet plays came to a screeching halt last week. Georgia Tech and SMU were never really in their respective games for the bulk of the contests, and karma for all my ?sweeping, and broom? comments came back to bite me in the ass.

Bad days like that happen to everyone in this industry though, and as tough as it may be to do, you've got to put them behind you and not let it influence the next game(s). With it being Championship Saturday this week and so many great games to watch (from both a betting and general perspective), there might not be a better week to rebound.

Hopefully this week's play gets us back in the win column after the rough way last Saturday treated the selections, so let's get right to it:

BetDSI.eu Odds: Oklahoma (-8); Total 78

Football fans get a second crack at consuming the Red River Rivalry this year as Oklahoma looks to avenge their only defeat of the campaign. The Sooners fell 48-45 to Texas back in early October, as it was a slow start and some early turnovers that put Oklahoma in a deep hole early that they weren't able to completely climb out of. Texas had multiple leads of 14 points in that game in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and it was those leads ? including a 21-point margin entering the 4th ? that proved to be too big.

Yet, Oklahoma and their tremendous offense actually managed to come all the way back from that 21-point deficit in the final frame, only to end up losing on a last second FG by what might be my favorite name/position combo in all of college football: Dicker the kicker. Handicappers who routinely spout off about Texas HC Tom Herman's 12-1 ATS record as an underdog got more content to spew out for this week's matchup, and when you combine that with the fact that Oklahoma's defense has been awful the past four weeks (allowed 40 or more in each of their last four games) and Texas did win the first matchup outright, you get the predictable statements of this being ?too many points? to give Texas in this spot.

Look I get it, Oklahoma finished the year on a 0-3-1 ATS run in those four games where they allowed 40 or more, but they still went 4-0 SU in those games. Yes, the defense has been bad overall this year, but outside of the Kansas game, the Sooners also faced the three highest scoring offenses in the Big 12 in those final four games (West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State). Those three teams ? along with Oklahoma ? were the only four programs in the Big 12 to score more than 400 points this season. With West Virginia being the best of the bunch at 465 points scored, it puts into perspective just how good the Sooners offense and their 604 points scored this year really were. Compared to the 380 points Texas put up this year, as long as Oklahoma doesn't lose the turnover battle 3-0 again this time around, this game has blowout written all over it.

As far as Oklahoma's defense goes, it's hard to defend them too much given that they did allow the most total points of any Big 12 team (394), but there are other reasons behind that besides the ?they don't have talent, they aren't good? narrative that's the go-to point for many here.

For one, being the defending Big 12 champs and the blue-blood program that they are, Oklahoma is always going to get the best shot from every one of their conference rivals. Teams know they've got to be able to score 40+ on the Sooners to simply even be in the game, and that means play-calling aggression is at an all time high in those contests.

Secondly, with the Sooners offense scoring seemingly at will, most of the time those are quick scores for the Sooners and that leads to a lack of rest for the defense. Mentally, for a defense that sees their own offense score like that week after week, there is an ?ease-up? factor on certain drives or vs certain opponents (say a bad Kansas team) where they know that they'll win the game regardless of how good or bad they play. That mentality has led to the Sooners defense having some numbers that truly do look bad, but situational football has actually led this unit to step up and get stops when they need too. And you only have to look to the bulk of that 4th quarter in the first meeting with Texas ? when Oklahoma came back from 21 down to tie it ? to see that the Sooners are more than capable of doing so. Yes, they couldn't get the stop late to prevent the game-winning FG, but they gave their offense a chance for the first 14 minutes of that final frame to atone for the early mistakes and it nearly paid off.

The Sooners defense isn't going to be highly respected by anyone here and they will give up points, but you don't go 11-1 SU throughout the course of the year by not getting timely defensive stops. Should they be the ones to force Texas into some early turnovers this time around, QB Kyler Murray and this Sooners offense will make sure this game gets ugly in a hurry.

Finally, watching the betting markets themselves can tell you a lot about how this game is viewed by bettors and oddsmakers alike. With the predictable money coming in on Texas because ?Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as an underdog,? wouldn't you expect that the 80%+ action on Texas ML and 65%+ action on Texas + the points would shift this line the Longhorns way? After all, oddsmakers are well aware of those trends too, and yet, this line has actually moved up to -8 for Oklahoma.

Public underdogs are ones I've mentioned all year as teams you should generally stay away from, and when you get reverse line movement involved as well, that sentiment only grows. Don't forget that as the #5 team in the CFB Playoff rankings, Oklahoma knows they'll need to hang a convincing beating on Texas in this spot to get consideration for that #4 seed regardless of how the other conference title games play out. They saw how high Ohio State jumped in the rankings this week after they put in on Michigan last Saturday, so a similar 20+ point win for Oklahoma has to be the main goal for the Sooners this week.

Unless Oklahoma gets burned in the turnover battle again here, I have a tough time seeing how this won't be a double-digit win for the Sooners. Seeing Texas once already will help the defense in terms of understanding how they expect Texas to attack them. That's a similar case to what Oklahoma's defense did a year ago when they had one of their best performances in Big 12 play in their second meeting with a TCU squad (17 points allowed, fewest vs a Big 12 team not named Kansas) in that Big 12 title game. Texas probably gets to 20+ this week, but it won't be nearly enough to keep pace with this Sooners squad that should reach the mid-40's at a minimum.

Oklahoma wins this game by at least two TD's, as hopefully all this talk about Tom Herman's record as an underdog starts to become more of an afterthought going forward when he and the Longhorns crumble on this big stage.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Oklahoma -8

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 14
November 28, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Conference Championship Week Total Talk

It was a good final week of the regular season to follow the steam on the college football totals I outlined in this piece last week. All that money on the Stanford/UCLA 'over' and Rutgers/Michigan State 'under' go there with ease on those respective contests, but while Miami did get some revenge on Pitt for their 2017 loss, that dominant ?turnover chain? defense the Hurricanes had in 2017 showed up as well, keeping that contest well below the number.

Now that the regular season has concluded, there are fewer CFB games on the betting board, but that doesn't mean that we haven't seen significant movement already on some totals. This week tends to be one of the more heavily bet weekends of the year in college football because of the stakes in play, and there was no need to wait until later in the week to get this piece out.

So let's get right to the bigger movers of the week on these totals to see if you are looking to jump on board now, or wait and possibly go the other way closer to kick-off.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Fresno State vs. Boise State: Open: 49 ? Current: 53

The Mountain West championship will be decided on the ?Smurf Turf? at Boise State again this year, as it's a rematch between Boise State and Fresno State from last year's game. This will be the third time in the six-year history of the Mountain West title game that these two programs have squared off, and Boise State has hosted and won both of the previous two matchups. Neither of those title games finished with more than 42 total points scored, and considering the regular season matchup between these two finished with 41 total points, this big move upwards is a little surprising.

Both of these programs finished with winning records to the 'under' this year ? Fresno was 4-8 O/U and Boise was 5-7 O/U ? and yet this is a move that on the surface looks to be one that should be followed before it's faded. For the number to quickly jump through a key number of 51 and still hit another key number of 53 is something that can't be taken lightly, and with Boise's offense scoring 45 and 33 points in their two games since beating Fresno, the Broncos attack is riding a strong wave of momentum right now as well. Weather forecasts are calling for ideal early December weather in Boise so their shouldn't be much concern there either.

The fact that betting percentage numbers offered at VegasInsider.com show it's only about a 55/45 split in favor of the 'over' suggests it's a move to be followed as well, although the only concerning thing in that regard is the notion that the value in taking the 'over' is all but gone now and we will likely see some buyback to the low-side closer to kick-off. After all, each of these two teams finished the regular season on 0-4 O/U runs, and each of the past four meetings between the two have stayed 'under' as well with no more than 45 points scored in any of those games.

That makes this total one I'm more interested in monitoring as the week goes on, simply because if there is some buyback on the 'under' it will be interesting to see what happens if the total drops back to that key number of 51. Clearly there was plenty of love (and respect) in the markets for going 'over' that key number here as maybe we do see a game where it's something like 28-24 for either side. We did see how well following the steam did a week ago though, no matter the number, so if forced to make a play on this total now, it would have to be siding with the move on the high side of things.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Memphis vs. UCF: Open: 70 ? Current: 65

This move is much easier to explain as the big drop in the number is basically injury related. UCF lost QB McKenzie Milton to a horrific leg injury a week ago, and backup QB Darriel Mack Jr was able to do enough to keep the lead, get the W, and keep the undefeated UCF season intact. However, it's not like the freshman Mack was all that impressive in the effort (5-for-14 passing for just 81 yards) as he did enter the game with a double-digit lead and let the running game bring things home. If UCF wants to remain unbeaten this year, that can't be the case against a high-powered Memphis team that's looking for some revenge after a one-point defeat to UCF earlier this year.

UCF will likely lean heavily on the ground game once again this week, as they don't particularly want to get into a shootout without Milton at the helm. That should lead to the clock continuously running quite a bit here as UCF's defense does what it can to contain Memphis, and it's not like the Knights haven't been a great 'under' team recently either. UCF enters this championship game on a 1-7 O/U run overall and that's something casual fans/bettors might not figure when they think about this UCF program.

From a betting perspective now, the value in this number is long gone, and while the likelihood of some buyback isn't going to be necessarily as strong here as it could be in Fresno/Boise, I believe this total is nothing but a pass now. It's not like Memphis' defense hasn't been gashed on the ground this year, and UCF still has some explosive RB's in that stable of theirs that could break one off at any moment. The Tigers own attack can put up points in a hurry, and knowing that they don't have to deal with Milton in this game, building a multi-score lead early in the 2nd half and then going into prevent mode and giving up a few scores could be very decisive in the ultimate result on this total. Last year's meeting in the championship game was an epic OT shootout that finished with 117 points scored, so if you hadn't already gotten a piece of this 'under' at a better number, it's probably best to pass on this total now.

Best Total Bet for Championship Saturday

Georgia vs. Alabama Under 63.5

The SEC championship game is one that the entire CFB world has been waiting on for weeks now as it's a rematch from last year's National Championship, and one you know this Georgia team has been excited about for weeks. The Bulldogs have wanted to get another crack at 'Bama all year long, and with a win putting Georgia into the CFB Playoff again and a loss eliminating them, the stakes couldn't be much higher for the Bulldogs this week.

And while both programs have made improvements on offense this year compared to when they met last season, I do believe the number is still slightly too high all things considered. For one, an Alabama loss doesn't ?guarantee? them a spot in the CFB playoff if it were to come in ugly fashion, and with that as the backdrop to Nick Saban's game planning, you can bet that he'll have his defense overly prepared for what he expects to see from Georgia.

At the same time, Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs defense very prepared for what he expects to see from Alabama, as they did get caught off guard in the title game when Saban made the QB switch to Tua in the 2nd half. Like Alabama, Georgia has basically had a month to prepare and install bits of the game plan into their unit and that's never a bad thing for 'unders.'

Finally, both teams are coming off consecutive games of 'overs' cashing to end the year, with Alabama putting up 50+ in both wins, while Georgia averaged 50+ in their two victories. Those results have to be taken into consideration when putting out a total for this week, and because of them, I do believe the total is slightly inflated. Remember, the total for the National Title game a year ago closed at 45.5 and was a dead ringer for the 'under' before Alabama forced OT, and it still could have cashed had Georgia been the only team to score in that extra frame. Even with the improved offenses, this number is nearly three TD's higher than last year's meeting, and with two elite SEC teams going at it ? a conference that's known for defense ? I have a hard time seeing where 64+ points will come from.

Alabama had only two SEC games this year where the total closed in the 60's or higher and both of those games did find a way to cash 'under' tickets. This SEC title game should be no different as somewhere in the mid-50's is likely where this score tops out.

 

[Cnotes53]

College Football Picks: Can OU avoid Big 12 champ upset?
November 28, 2018
By The Associated Press

There was a time when the Big 12 championship game was routinely a dream-wrecker for national title contenders.

From the first Big 12 title game in 1996 to 2010, the last before it took a hiatus while the conference realigned, the league's championship was won by the lower-ranked team five times. There was also a memorable near-upset.

No. 9 Texas tries to become the latest Big 12 team to spoil the conference's chances at a national championship Saturday when it faces No. 5 Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas. The Longhorns beat the Sooners in the regular season on a last-second field goal.

The very first Big 12 championship game set the tone for chaos to come: No. 3 Nebraska was upset 37-27 by unranked Texas. Two years later Texas A&M knocked off No. 2 Kansas State, keeping the Wildcats out of the very first BCS championship game. In 2003, Kansas State threw the BCS for a loop, blowing out No. 1 Oklahoma 35-7. The Sooners still made the championship game.

Missouri was No. 1 in the country in the unpredictable 2007 season when it was beaten by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Texas nearly had a BCS championship game appearance slip away in 2009 when it beat Nebraska 13-12, a game remembered most for Ndamukong Suh's dominant performance for the Cornhuskers.

The return of the Big 12 title game came with a new format. The 10-team conference no longer has divisions, but matches Nos. 1 and 2 in the standings. And because the Big 12 plays a round-robin, nine-game conference schedule, the championship game will always be a rematch. Conference leadership believed it needed an extra quality game to best position its champ for playoff selection and the risks outweighed the reward.

Oklahoma beat TCU to make the playoff last season. We'll see if Big 12 volatility makes an appearance with the Sooners in prime position to make it again, sitting at fifth in the playoff rankings, behind Georgia, which plays top-ranked Alabama in the Southeastern Conference championship.

The picks:

FRIDAY

MAC championship: Buffalo (minus 4) vs. Northern Illinois at Detroit

Some potential early-round NFL draft picks: WR Anthony Johnson and LB Khalil Hodge for the Bulls and DE Sutton Smith and OT Max Scharping for the Huskies ... BUFFALO 28-20.

Pac-12 championship: No. 17 Utah (plus 5) vs. No. 10 Washington at Santa Clara, California

Utes looking for first Pac-12 championship since joining the conference in 2011 ... WASHINGTON 21-20.

SATURDAY

Sun Belt championship: Louisiana-Lafayette (plus 18+) at Appalachian State

First Sun Belt championship game ... APPALACHIAN STATE 42-21.

Conference USA championship: UAB (plus 1) at Middle Tennessee

Blue Raiders beat the Blazers, who had already clinched C-USA West, 27-3 last week to earn a rematch ... UAB 23-20.

American Athletic championship: Memphis (plus 3) at No. 7 UCF

Last two meetings, including last season's AAC championship, have been wild affairs. The Knights won both by a combined 92-85, but UCF won't have injured QB McKenzie Milton this time ... MEMPHIS 38-35.

SEC championship: No. 4 Georgia (plus 13) vs. No. 1 Alabama at Atlanta

Only SEC title game between the Dawgs and Tide was one of the best, 32-28 Alabama, decided at the goal line in 2012 ... ALABAMA 38-21.

ACC championship: Pittsburgh (plus 26+) vs. No. 2 Clemson at Charlotte, North Carolina

Tigers trying to become first team to win four straight ACC championship games since it started in 2005 ... CLEMSON 42-10.

Big Ten championship: No. 21 Northwestern (plus 14) vs. No. 6 Ohio State at Indianapolis

Plucky Wildcats are in Big Ten title game for first time since it started in 2011 ... OHIO STATE 38-17.

Big 12 championship: Texas (plus 7+) vs. Oklahoma at Arlington, Texas

Sooners are allowing 47.5 points per game over the last four and have won them all ... OKLAHOMA 49-38.

Mountain West championship: Fresno State (plus 2+) at Boise State

Can the Bulldogs snap their blue-turf blues? Fresno State is 0-10 at Boise ... FRESNO STATE 24-20.

---

Last week: 18-7 straight; 15-10 against the spread.

Season: 197-72 straight; 145-145-3 against the spread.

Upset specials: 7-6 (straight up).

Best bets: 5-6 (against the spread).

 

[Cnotes53]

Georgia offense bracing for biggest test from Crimson Tide
November 28, 2018
By The Associated Press

ATHENS, Ga. (AP) Georgia's offense is peaking just in time for its ultimate stress test against Alabama.

The No. 4 Bulldogs (11-1, No. 4 CFP) scored a combined 111 points in their final two regular-season wins over UMass and Georgia Tech. Georgia stacked an impressive string of eight consecutive quarters without a punt over its final three games.

The challenge for Jake Fromm and the Bulldogs is to keep piling on the points against a stout Alabama defense and keep pace with the powerful Crimson Tide. A high-scoring game may be Georgia's best path to an upset win and repeat Southeastern Conference championship on Saturday.

Fromm has thrown 24 touchdown passes, including a combined 14 to Riley Ridley and Mecole Hardman. Freshman Justin Fields, best known for his running skills, has thrown four touchdown passes.

''I think it's going to be the best challenge we've had, honestly,'' said Alabama safety Xavier McKinney.

As usual, No. 1 Alabama (12-0, No. 1 CFP) has relied on strong defense. It is a rematch of last season's national championship game , a 26-23 overtime win for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama boasts its customary top-six national rankings in scoring defense and total defense. The defense has been overshadowed by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's big year, capped by his five touchdown passes in last week's 52-21 win over Auburn .

Fromm said he sees some of the same players back from the Alabama defense he faced at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in last season's national championship game. Since Georgia coach Kirby Smart is the former longtime Alabama defensive coordinator, Fromm said the Crimson Tide's defense also reminds him of the Georgia unit he faces in practice.

''Yeah, they definitely have some returning players,'' Fromm said. ''And they have some really good players. But schematically they're doing a lot of similar stuff they last year, very similar to our defense. And I think it's just kind of very similar to what we see every single day in practice, so hopefully we can be very successful with that.''

One year ago, Fromm was completing his freshman season while relying heavily on senior tailbacks Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Chubb and Michel became the first Georgia tandem to reach 1,000 yards rushing in the same season.

Incredibly, two different Georgia backs are within reach of 1,000 yards one year later. D'Andre Swift has topped 100 yards in four of the last five games to lead the Bulldogs with 962 yards rushing. Elijah Holyfield has 896 yards.

The success of the running game remains the foundation of Georgia's offensive success. Smart said he expected more big numbers on the ground even after losing Chubb and Michel to the NFL.

''Oh yeah. I knew we had a good offensive line coming back,'' Smart said after Tuesday's practice. ''... I knew we were talented on the offensive line and we had good backs. I knew we'd have the opportunity. Whether it would be two 1,000-yard rushers, we're not there yet but we're trying to get there. We probably could have had that. Some of the games we've had, we've taken those kids out and some of those kids haven't played much in games.''

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Swift and Holyfield kept enjoying success even while injuries forced constant changes on the offensive line.

''A lot of guys went down,'' Holyfield said. ''But we were very deep at the offensive line. It's one of our strongest positions on the team. So all the other guys who stepped up this year came in and did a really good job ... almost as if the 1 line's been in there the whole time.''

Asked how he thinks the line will handle the challenge from Alabama's defensive front, Holyfield said, ''I think we'll be fine.''

Fromm, both accurate and efficient, has been more than a game manager in his second season. He threw for four touchdowns in the 45-21 win over Georgia Tech despite attempting only 16 passes. He has completed 69.1 percent of his passes, a school-record pace that ranks eighth in the nation.

''They've got a great group of receivers, a lot of guys who are athletic, very talented, speedy,'' McKinney said. ''And then a great quarterback who makes good reads and good throws, accurate throws.''

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Monty Andrews


Milton on the Mend

Central Florida will play for the American Athletic Conference title this weekend with injured quarterback McKenzie Milton on their minds. Milton suffered a gruesome leg injury in the Knights' 38-10 win over South Florida last week and will undergo reconstructive surgery on his right knee at a later date. But the good news is, a nerve at the site of the injury remained intact and blood flow has been restored to his lower leg. Milton finishes his Junior season with Central Florida with some eye-popping numbers, having thrown for 25 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground.

Oddsmakers are making the Milton injury a major factor in Central Florida's AAC championship game against visiting Memphis, with the host Knights just 3.5-point favorites despite having won 24 consecutive games. But with the home team a sizzling 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the UCF defense almost as strong as its offense, the Knights are a strong cover play.

Gamecocks Going for a Big Cover

Not every game this weekend will decide a conference championship; for the South Carolina Gamecocks, it's simply an opportunity to rack up one more dominant victory heading into bowl season. The Gamecocks host the Akron Zips in a non-conference showdown scheduled after South Carolina had a Sept. 15 meeting with Marshall postponed due to Hurricane Florence. The Zips aren't expected to be competitive in this one, coming in as 30-point underdogs to a Gamecocks side that fell 56-35 to Clemson last time out, but has covered in four consecutive games.

With South Carolina a perfect 2-0 ATS when favored by 30 or more points this season ? outscoring the opposition 98-24 in those victories ? and the Zips coming in having scored just 41 total points in their past three games, the Gamecocks are a great option not only to cover, but to hold the visitors below their team total, which sits at 13 as of Wednesday.


No Hope for Hokies' Run Game?

If the Virginia Tech Hokies hope to upend visiting Marshall in the regular-season finale for both teams, it will probably be through the air. The Thundering Herd come into the game having allowed a minuscule 2.8 yards per carry on the season so far, and rank sixth in Division I in yards allowed per game on the ground (100.5). And if that weren't daunting enough for the hosts, Marshall also ranks 16th in the country in third-down conversion defense (32 percent), while the Hokies are well below the national average in third-down success rate (37.3 percent).

With the Marshall defense looking as strong as ever (38 points allowed over the past three games), taking the visitors to win this one outright is a strong value play at +160. The Thundering Herd should also be able to keep the Hokies below their team total of 27.5 if they can control the time of possession.


Last Labor of Love

The "Big Game" could be missing a big contribution from a running back who began the season as a Heisman Trophy candidate. Bryce Love will look to wrap up a difficult Pac-12 season on a positive note as he leads the Stanford Cardinal into Memorial Stadium for a date with Cal. Love began the year as one of the leading candidates for college football's top individual awards, but injuries and ineffectiveness have him sitting on 655 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The Golden Bears boast one of the top run defenses in Division I, limiting foes to 136 yards per game on 3.9 YPC.

Love had 101 yards in last year's meeting with the Bears, but 57 of them came on a single rush ? and he has had just one rush of 30 or more yards in his last five games. With just one 100-yard game on the year and the Cardinal expected to give Cameron Scarlett some work, we recommend taking the Under on Love's rushing yard total.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 14

It was a good final week of the regular season to follow the steam on the college football totals I outlined in this piece last week. All that money on the Stanford/UCLA 'over' and Rutgers/Michigan State 'under' go there with ease on those respective contests, but while Miami did get some revenge on Pitt for their 2017 loss, that dominant ?turnover chain? defense the Hurricanes had in 2017 showed up as well, keeping that contest well below the number.

Now that the regular season has concluded, there are fewer CFB games on the betting board, but that doesn't mean that we haven't seen significant movement already on some totals. This week tends to be one of the more heavily bet weekends of the year in college football because of the stakes in play, and there was no need to wait until later in the week to get this piece out.

So let's get right to the bigger movers of the week on these totals to see if you are looking to jump on board now, or wait and possibly go the other way closer to kick-off.

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Fresno State vs. Boise State: Open: 49 ? Current: 53

The Mountain West championship will be decided on the ?Smurf Turf? at Boise State again this year, as it's a rematch between Boise State and Fresno State from last year's game. This will be the third time in the six-year history of the Mountain West title game that these two programs have squared off, and Boise State has hosted and won both of the previous two matchups. Neither of those title games finished with more than 42 total points scored, and considering the regular season matchup between these two finished with 41 total points, this big move upwards is a little surprising.

Both of these programs finished with winning records to the 'under' this year ? Fresno was 4-8 O/U and Boise was 5-7 O/U ? and yet this is a move that on the surface looks to be one that should be followed before it's faded. For the number to quickly jump through a key number of 51 and still hit another key number of 53 is something that can't be taken lightly, and with Boise's offense scoring 45 and 33 points in their two games since beating Fresno, the Broncos attack is riding a strong wave of momentum right now as well. Weather forecasts are calling for ideal early December weather in Boise so their shouldn't be much concern there either.

The fact that betting percentage numbers offered at VegasInsider.com show it's only about a 55/45 split in favor of the 'over' suggests it's a move to be followed as well, although the only concerning thing in that regard is the notion that the value in taking the 'over' is all but gone now and we will likely see some buyback to the low-side closer to kick-off. After all, each of these two teams finished the regular season on 0-4 O/U runs, and each of the past four meetings between the two have stayed 'under' as well with no more than 45 points scored in any of those games.

That makes this total one I'm more interested in monitoring as the week goes on, simply because if there is some buyback on the 'under' it will be interesting to see what happens if the total drops back to that key number of 51. Clearly there was plenty of love (and respect) in the markets for going 'over' that key number here as maybe we do see a game where it's something like 28-24 for either side. We did see how well following the steam did a week ago though, no matter the number, so if forced to make a play on this total now, it would have to be siding with the move on the high side of things.

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Memphis vs. UCF: Open: 70 ? Current: 65

This move is much easier to explain as the big drop in the number is basically injury related. UCF lost QB McKenzie Milton to a horrific leg injury a week ago, and backup QB Darriel Mack Jr was able to do enough to keep the lead, get the W, and keep the undefeated UCF season intact. However, it's not like the freshman Mack was all that impressive in the effort (5-for-14 passing for just 81 yards) as he did enter the game with a double-digit lead and let the running game bring things home. If UCF wants to remain unbeaten this year, that can't be the case against a high-powered Memphis team that's looking for some revenge after a one-point defeat to UCF earlier this year.

UCF will likely lean heavily on the ground game once again this week, as they don't particularly want to get into a shootout without Milton at the helm. That should lead to the clock continuously running quite a bit here as UCF's defense does what it can to contain Memphis, and it's not like the Knights haven't been a great 'under' team recently either. UCF enters this championship game on a 1-7 O/U run overall and that's something casual fans/bettors might not figure when they think about this UCF program.

From a betting perspective now, the value in this number is long gone, and while the likelihood of some buyback isn't going to be necessarily as strong here as it could be in Fresno/Boise, I believe this total is nothing but a pass now. It's not like Memphis' defense hasn't been gashed on the ground this year, and UCF still has some explosive RB's in that stable of theirs that could break one off at any moment. The Tigers own attack can put up points in a hurry, and knowing that they don't have to deal with Milton in this game, building a multi-score lead early in the 2nd half and then going into prevent mode and giving up a few scores could be very decisive in the ultimate result on this total. Last year's meeting in the championship game was an epic OT shootout that finished with 117 points scored, so if you hadn't already gotten a piece of this 'under' at a better number, it's probably best to pass on this total now.

Best Total Bet for Championship Saturday

Georgia vs. Alabama Under 63.5

The SEC championship game is one that the entire CFB world has been waiting on for weeks now as it's a rematch from last year's National Championship, and one you know this Georgia team has been excited about for weeks. The Bulldogs have wanted to get another crack at 'Bama all year long, and with a win putting Georgia into the CFB Playoff again and a loss eliminating them, the stakes couldn't be much higher for the Bulldogs this week.

And while both programs have made improvements on offense this year compared to when they met last season, I do believe the number is still slightly too high all things considered. For one, an Alabama loss doesn't ?guarantee? them a spot in the CFB playoff if it were to come in ugly fashion, and with that as the backdrop to Nick Saban's game planning, you can bet that he'll have his defense overly prepared for what he expects to see from Georgia.

At the same time, Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs defense very prepared for what he expects to see from Alabama, as they did get caught off guard in the title game when Saban made the QB switch to Tua in the 2nd half. Like Alabama, Georgia has basically had a month to prepare and install bits of the game plan into their unit and that's never a bad thing for 'unders.'

Finally, both teams are coming off consecutive games of 'overs' cashing to end the year, with Alabama putting up 50+ in both wins, while Georgia averaged 50+ in their two victories. Those results have to be taken into consideration when putting out a total for this week, and because of them, I do believe the total is slightly inflated. Remember, the total for the National Title game a year ago closed at 45.5 and was a dead ringer for the 'under' before Alabama forced OT, and it still could have cashed had Georgia been the only team to score in that extra frame. Even with the improved offenses, this number is nearly three TD's higher than last year's meeting, and with two elite SEC teams going at it ? a conference that's known for defense ? I have a hard time seeing where 64+ points will come from.

Alabama had only two SEC games this year where the total closed in the 60's or higher and both of those games did find a way to cash 'under' tickets. This SEC title game should be no different as somewhere in the mid-50's is likely where this score tops out.

 

[Cnotes53]

ACC Championship Preview
Joe Williams

Matchup: Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
Date: Saturday, Dec. 1
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Line, Total: Tigers -27.5, 52.5

The Atlantic Coast Conference will crown a champion in Charlotte on Saturday, and the playoff-hopeful Clemson Tigers (12-0 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread) are largely expected to run away in a rout over the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread).

These teams will be meeting for the first time since the Panthers stunned the Tigers 43-42 in Death Valley on Nov. 12, 2016 as 21 1/2-point underdogs.

Clemson rolled through the schedule without many scares, especially after the early portion of their schedule. They squeaked out a 28-26 win at Texas A&M on Sept. 8, and narrowly escaped with a 27-23 win over Syracuse on Sept. 29. That near-miss against the Orange served as a wake-up call, as they combined to win their next four games against Wake Forest, N.C. State, Florida State and Louisville by a combined 240-36. They finished up with a pair of non-covers against Duke and rival South Carolina, but those games were never really in doubt, especially in the second half.

Pitt will be making their first-ever ACC title game appearance, and they took the circuitous route to get there. No one seemed to want to win the Coastal Division. Everyone had three or more conference losses except for the Panthers, who despite losing five games overall, had just two losses in the league. Despite the fact they're in the championship game, they have a point differential of just plus-3. They were routed by Penn State 51-6 on Sept. 8. They were routed at UCF by a 45-14 score on Sept. 29. They were toppled 19-14 by Notre Dame on Oct. 13, and they were punched in the mouth by a 24-3 score in Miami in the season finale. The last game was perhaps the most excusable, as the young Panthers already had the ACC title game berth sewn up and they just didn't show to the stadium. It snapped a six-game cover streak dating back to Sept. 29.

The Tigers are making their fourth consecutive appearance in the ACC title game, and they're a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. They routed the Hurricanes 38-3 as 12 1/2-point favorites last season, and they're nearly a four-touchdown favorite to take home the hardware for a fourth straight year. They have also won five straight appearance in the ACC title game after losing their initial appearance to Georgia Tech during the 2009 installment of this game.

Clemson ranked third overall in the country with 540.1 yards per game, and they checked in fifth in the land with 45.7 points per game (PPG). They have a very balanced attack, ranking 12th in the country in rushing yardage per game at 257.8 yards, while finishing 24th in passing yards per game at 282.3 yards. They're not one of those one-trick pony teams who need to outscore teams because of a poor defense. Their D is nasty, too. They allowed just 290.2 yards per game to rank ninth in the nation, and they allowed just 91.8 yards per game on the ground to finish second overall. They also gave up 14.0 PPG, finishing fourth.

Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence took over the starting duties early in the season from the departed QB Kelly Bryant, and he managed to complete 200-of-303 (66.0 percent) for 2,488 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions while also running for 133 yards and a score. RB Travis Etienne emerged as a superstar, gobbling up 1,308 rushing yards with 19 touchdowns and a ridiculous 8.0 yards per carry. RB Lyn-J Dixon was a nice change of pace with 531 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 10.2 yards per tote. RB Tavien Feaster also plunged into the end zone six times.

In the passing game it's WR Tee Higgins trying to be the next great Clemson receiver. He led the way with 49 grabs, 766 yard and eight touchdowns, while WRs Justyn Ross, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfrow combined for 1,615 yards and 11 touchdowns, with Ross getting into the end zone six times. Renfrow (head) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game due to a head injury suffered late in the season.

For the Panthers, QB Kenny Pickett finished the season strong, completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,825 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions and he rushed for 186 yards and three scores on the ground. He isn't necessarily a dual threat, but teams do have to be mindful for the occasional run. Speaking of running, RB Qadree Ollison finished with 1,134 yards and 10 scores to lead the way, giving Pitt a home-run hitter on the ground. RB Darrin Hall is also dangerous in the run game, averaging 7.6 yards per tote, rolling up 935 yard with nine scores. WR Taysir Mack and WR Maurice Ffrench were the best of the lot in the passing game, both nearly 500 yards. Ffrench led the team with six receiving yards, and he is a demon on special teams, too.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Tigers have racked up an impressive 10-2 ATS mark in their past 12 neutral-site games, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six ACC battles and 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. Clemson is also 7-1 ATS across their past eight games played in the month of December.

-- Pitt has been crazy against the number lately, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven games overall while cashing in five of the past six ACC battles. The Panthers are also 4-1 ATS in the past five battles against teams with a winning record. However, Pitt is just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on a neutral-site field.

-- For Clemson, the 'under' is 6-2 in their past eight games in December while the under is 11-5 in Clemson's past 16 against teams with a winning record.

-- For Pittsburgh, the 'under' is 17-7-1 in their past 25 games, while hitting in 11 of the past 16 conference battles. The under is also 9-3 in the past 12 against teams with a winning overall record. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in their past five appearances on a neutral-site field.

ACC Championship History

 

[Cnotes53]

Big 12 Championship Preview
Joe Williams

Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Texas
Date: Saturday, Dec. 1
Time/TV: 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Tex.
Line, Total: Sooners -8, 77.5

The Big 12 Championship Game has major playoff implications this season, and for the first time in the title game's history we get a rematch of the Red River Rivalry. That's exactly what the league was hoping for when the league revived the championship game last season.

The Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 straight-up, 4-7-1 against the spread) will be looking for revenge against the rival Texas Longhorns (9-3 straight-up, 5-6-1 against the spread) after falling 48-45 in the neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl back on Oct. 6. The Longhorns won that game outright as seven-point underdogs as the 'over' (60) easily connected in that outing. Now the teams will meet on the even faster track of the field turf surface at Jerry World in Arlington.

Oklahoma lost QB Baker Mayfield, last season's Heisman Trophy winner, to the NFL's Cleveland Browns with the No. 1 overall pick. In stepped QB Kyler Murray, and the Sooners haven't missed a beat. In fact, he might be on his way to New York City looking to give the team back-to-back bronze statues. OU opened with three straight victories, including a 37-27 revenge-game win at Iowa State on Sept. 15. They received quite a scare from Army of all teams, surviving 28-21 in overtime back on Sept. 22. They spurred them on, as they doubled up Baylor 66-33 to head to Dallas for that Longhorns game at 5-0 SU/2-3 ATS. We know what happened there, but they bounced back to win six straight outings while scoring 48 or more points in all six of their final games. In fact, they rolled up at least 37 points in 11 of their 12 contests, although they closed out the season 0-3-1 ATS in the final four.

This will be Oklahoma's 10th appearance in the Big 12 championship game, and their sixth trip in the past seven installments of this game. Oklahoma appeared last season against Texas Christian at AT&T Stadium and they routed the Horned Frogs 41-17 as 7 1/2-point favorites. They have been favored in all nine of their previous appearances in this game, posting an 8-1 ATS mark,

The Longhorns are back in the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2009 when they eeked out a 13-12 win over Nebraska despite entering as two-touchdown favorites. This is their sixth appearance in the Big 12 championship game, and they're 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in their previous five battles.

Things didn't start out so well for Texas, as they were topped 34-29 in a neutral-site battle against Maryland in the opener on Sept. 1. They edged Tulsa 28-21 in their home opener, but still were not hitting on all cylinders. It wasn't until at 37-14 win on Sept. 15 against USC that the Longhorns looked to be on their way back. Two more wins in September and then the Red River Rivalry victory, and Texas was in the Top 10 and they had championship hopes. Oklahoma State ended their playoff dreams 38-35 in Stillwater on Oct. 27, and a loss the next week at home against West Virginia by a 42-41 score looked like the end of the road. They rebounded for wins at Texas Tech and at home against Iowa State, while surviving at Kansas to punch their ticket back to the Metroplex.

Texas ranked 60th in the nation with 414.2 total yards per game, and they were 38th in passing yards (257.4 YPG). Their rushing offense, normally a staple in Austin, was just so-so, as they ranked 84th overall in that department. They did average 31.7 points per game (PPG) in their 12 games to check in 46th.

Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger (shoulder) seized the starting job and he ran with it, rolling up 2,774 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He was also a threat in the run game, posting 376 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. He has been battling a raw right shoulder, and that's something to watch in the game in case he takes a hard hit to the joint.

RB Keaontay Ingram was the co-leader in the backfield with Tre Watson. Ingram posted 676 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) while finding the end zone three times, and Watson was good for 656 yards (4.3 YPC) and three scores on the ground. In the pass game it's WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey who led the way with 72 grabs, 1,058 yards and eight touchdowns while WRs Collin Johnson and David Duvernay combined for 1,236 yards and 10 scores. Watson and Ingram combined for 41 grabs for 260 yards and five scores out of the backfield.

Oklahoma's offense was prolific, and their defense somewhat pathetic. That leads to a lot of video-game like performances. The Sooners ranked No. 1 in the country with 583.9 yards per game, and they were also No. 1 in points scored (50.3 PPG). OU had a balanced attack with 264.5 yards per game on the ground, while rolling up 319.4 yards per game through the air to rank eighth in both categories. However, they were just 110th in the country in defense, allowing 449.0 yards per game and 32.8 PPG, ranking 100th.

Murray completed 70.6 percent of his passes, as the Oakland A's draftee and Heisman hopeful has the world in his hands right now. He'll be a rich man playing either pro baseball or pro football. Will this be his final college game? There is talk speculating he could sit in the bowl game to protect himself for the future. Murray rolled up 3,674 yards, 37 touchdowns and seven interceptions while running for 853 yards and 11 more scores.

RB Kennedy Brooks led the way with 993 yards on the ground while finding the end zone 12 times. RB Trey Sermon managed 863 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. WR Marquise Brown was good for a team-best 1,264 receiving yards with 10 scores on 70 grabs, averaging a gaudy 18.1 yards per snare. WR CeeDee Lamb was also a deep threat, posting 882 yards and nine scores on 51 grabs. The Longhorns will have to account for WR Lee Morris, who ended up finding the end zone eight times.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Longhorns have posted a 5-1 ATS mark in their past six neutral-site contests, although they failed to cover in Week 1 this season in such situation. They're also 13-5-2 ATS in the past 20 against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- The Sooners have struggled against the number, going 0-3-1 ATS in their past four inside the league. They're also a dismal 0-3-1 ATS in their past four attempts against teams with a winning overall record. OU has managed a 2-9 ATS record in the past 11 neutral-site battles, too.

-- As far as the total is concerned, the 'under' is an impressive 42-17 in the past 59 league games while going 5-0 in the past five in the month of December. The 'under' is also 30-11 in the past 41 against teams with a winning overall record, while going 25-10 in the past 35 following a straight-up win.

-- For OU, the 'over' is 5-0 in their past five against teams with a winning record. The over is also 19-7 in their past 26 and 36-15-1 in the past 52 inside the Big 12. However, the 'under' is 7-3 in the past 10 neutral-site battles.

-- Texas has covered six straight head-to-head meetings, with the underdog cashing in each of the past six battles.

Big 12 Championship History

 

[Cnotes53]

Pac-12 Championship Preview
Joe Williams

Matchup: Utah vs. Washington
Date: Friday, Nov. 30
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
Line, Total: Huskies -5, 44.5

The Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off on Friday night at Levi's Stadium, and we'll get some new blood in the battle. The Utah Utes (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) survived in the South Division, and they will be making the first-ever appearance in the league's title game. In fact, it might be the school's most important game since Kyle Whittingham took them to the Sugar Bowl against Alabama back in 2008.

The Washington Huskies (9-3 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) surprised the 10-win Washington State Cougars last weekend in the Apple Cup, pushing their rivals out of first place to claim the Pac-12 North for themselves. The season started with championship expectations of high proportions. However, a loss in a neutral-site battle against Auburn in the opener, and a couple of conference road setbacks against Oregon and California forced the Huskies to refocus.

The Utes lost in their conference opener back on Sept. 15 against the Huskies by a 21-7 score at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City as the 'under' (45.5) connected. The Utes followed that loss with a 28-24 setback in Pullman against Washington State, and an appearance in the conference championship game certainly didn't appear very possible with an 0-2 SU league start. However, Utah pulled together for an impressive 40-21 road victory at Stanford on Oct. 6, kicking off a four-game winning streak and cover streak to get right back into the thick of things. During the span the offense posted 40 or more points and things were humming again. The only loss since Oct. 6 was a 38-20 loss at Arizona State, but the team rebounded with three straight wins against Oregon and Colorado, as well as their rivalry game in the Holy War against Brigham Young in the season finale, 35-27. After a 1-3 ATS start, Utah ended up 6-2 ATS over their final eight outings.

The Huskies are making their second appearance in three seasons in Santa Clara, representing the North Division. They rolled past Colorado 41-10 in the 2016 installment to easily cover as 8 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (55.5) cashed in that one. As mentioned, Washington won their conference opener Sept. 15 in SLC, and they fired out to a 3-0 SU/1-2 ATS start in the conference. They lost a heartbreaker in Oregon on Oct. 13, dropping a 30-27 decision in overtime, a game which could have been a win in the fourth quarter if not for a missed field goal. While that game might have knocked them out of contention for a national playoff spot, a stunning 12-10 loss at Cal on Oct. 27 looked like a potential death blow to their conference title hopes. The Huskies went 2-9 ATS in the first 11 outings, including an 0-6 ATS run from Oct. 6 through Nov. 17. However, they won in a snowy Apple Cup in Washington State to find their way back to the Bay Area and a potential Rose Bowl bid.

The Huskies ranked 52nd in the nation in total yards (421.2 YPG), while posting a very ordinary ranking of 64th in passing yards (236.2 YPG). They were a very ordinary 53rd in rushing yardage, too, posting 185.0 yards per contests with 28.0 PPG, ranking 77th in the country.

Senior QB Jake Browning took another step backward after his magical 2016-17 season. He completed 65.1 percent of his pass attempts (196-for-301) for just 2,692 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 114 yards and four scores this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin missed some time due to injury at the end of October, but he still managed to roll up 1,076 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns, including 143 yards and a score in the win against Utah in mid-September. Sophomore RB Salvon Ahmed, the heir apparent to Gaskin in the backfield, posted 576 yards and seven touchdowns while actually outgaining Gaskin in yards per carry (6.3 to 5.1). Junior WR Aaron Fuller was good for a team-high 754 yards on 49 grabs with four touchdowns, while sophomore WR Ty Jones, a Utah native, led the team with six receiving scores.

This defense is championship caliber, and the secondary is littered with NFL prospects. Washington allowed 311.2 total yards per game which ranked 13th in the land, and their 16.5 points per game allowed was good for eighth in the country. Junior S Taylor Rapp is a game changer and heavy hitter in the secondary.

Utah averaged 414.0 total yards per game to rank 61st in the country, while the team scored 30.8 PPG to check in 54th in the nation. It was all about the run game, as they rolled up 201.0 yards per game to finish 40th in the land. Like Washington, it all starts and stops with defense for Utah. They were 15th in the country in total yards allowed (317.1 YPC), while yielding just 101.6 yards per game on the ground to finish sixth in the nation. They also allowed 19.2 PPG to end up 17th in the country.

Junior QB Tyler Huntley (collarbone) is listed as questionable for Friday's game. He completed 149-of-233 passes for 1,762 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while also posting 304 rushing yards with four scores. He is a dual-threat signal caller for sure, checking in third on the team in rushing. If he cannot go it would be freshman QB Jason Shelley (54-of-96, 723 yards, three TD, one INT) taking the reins. No matter who is under center, they'll be handing off to junior RB Zack Moss, who led the team with 1,092 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns. Junior RB Armand Shyne is the change-of-pace back, posting 442 yards and five scores on 95 carries. WR Brittain Covey is the Swiss Army Knife for Utah. He ran for a score, had a receiving touchdown and he was the primary kickoff and punt return specialist, too. He ranked 103rd in the country with 1,137 all-purpose yards.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Utes head into the game 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances on Friday, for whatever that's worth. They're also 7-1 ATS in their past eight appearances on a grass surface, while going 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record. Utah has cashed in four of the past five outings on a neutral site field, while cashing in six of their past seven conference tilts. They have covered six of the past eight overall.

-- The Huskies have also excelled on Fridays, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight on the day. However, they're struggled with just one cover across the past eight conference battles, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning sides. The Huskies have also failed to cover in each of their past five appearances on a grass surface.

-- The 'over' has connected in four straight for Utah against teams with a winning overall mark, although the under is 7-3 in the past 10 outings on grass.

-- For Washington, it's been all 'under' all the time. The under is 9-3 in their past 12 overall, while going 6-2 across the past eight neutral-site battles. In addition, the under has hit in eight of the past nine games against teams with a winning record.

-- In this series, the underdog has hit in five of the past six battles, while the 'over' is 4-1 across the past five battles, with the under hitting earlier this season.

Pac-12 Championship History

 

[Udog]

MAC Championship Preview
Joe Nelson

Championship weekend kicks off in Detroit with the MAC Championship Game Friday night in Detroit. Northern Illinois has now represented the West in seven of the last nine title games while this is just the second appearance for Buffalo.

Here is a look at Friday?s closely-lined championship game in the MAC.

Match-up: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls;
Venue: At Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: Friday, November 30, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Line: Buffalo -3, Over/Under 49
Last Meeting: 2017, at Northern Illinois (-8) 14, Buffalo 13

Buffalo has been the prominent MAC team all season since starting the year 4-0 with notable wins at Temple and at Rutgers. The Bulls started 6-0 in conference play to take a commanding lead in the East but slipped up at Ohio in mid-November before clinching the division title last weekend. At 10-2, it has been the best season record-wise in Buffalo history already and the Bulls will have two more opportunities to add to the win count.

This if the fourth season for Lance Leipold who won six Division III championships in eight years at Wisconsin-Whitewater and figures to be a candidate to be interviewed for major conference positions in the near future. Buffalo went 5-7 and 2-10 in his first two seasons before reaching 6-6 last year without getting a bowl invite.

Rod Carey took over Northern Illinois for the Orange Bowl at the end of the 2012 season after Dave Doeren was hired at NC State. In six-plus seasons he is 51-29 with the Huskies finishing in the top three in the West every season while this will be his fourth MAC title game, going 1-2 in three straight appearances from 2013 to 2015. A bowl win has eluded Carey, winless in five tries but the program has been a consistent force in the conference.

The Dollar General Bowl in Mobile vs. a Sun Belt team has been the typical landing spot for the MAC Champion though there are not true ranked bowl tie-ins for the MAC. The Camellia, Famous Idaho Potato, Frisco, and Bahamas Bowls are also tied to the MAC with the conference featuring seven bowl-eligible teams including six that are at least 7-5 this year.

West champion Northern Illinois is just 7-5 but the Huskies lost non-conference games to Iowa, Utah, and Florida State, while beating BYU for one of the nation?s most difficult non-conference schedules. The Huskies held this spot despite losing its final two MAC games to slide to 6-2 in league play, falling in single-score games hosting Miami and at Western Michigan in the final two weeks.

Northern Illinois has the top scoring defense in the MAC, allowing just 19.8 points per game while Buffalo was one of the conference?s top offensive teams, posting 35.5 points per game in conference play. These teams didn?t play in the regular season this year but Buffalo did face Eastern Michigan and Toledo in the crossover games for a fairly difficult schedule. Northern Illinois drew Ohio and Miami as both teams faced the second and third place teams from the opposing divisions.

Experienced mobile quarterbacks are on both sides with sophomore Marcus Childers playing significantly last season as a freshman for Northern Illinois. He posted worse numbers across the board this season however despite a similar record for the Huskies. Junior Tyree Jackson threw nearly twice as many touchdown passes this season compared with last season for Buffalo but he also saw major declines in most of his passing numbers compared with last season. At 6?7? Jackson is a difficult matchup for any defense but the Huskies have had great defensive numbers this season.

Only Clemson is allowing fewer yards per carry than Northern Illinois at just 2.6 yards per rush attempt on the season. The Huskies were only out-gained on the ground three times this season and never in MAC play with only Iowa, Florida State, and BYU holding a ground edge in this matchup while in six of eight MAC games Northern Illinois had a rushing edge of at least 96 yards.

Dominating the ground game has been the key to beating Buffalo this season as in the team?s two losses they had a major rushing deficit. In September Army out-gained Buffalo by 178 rushing yards and won 42-13 in Buffalo while in mid-November Ohio out-rushed Buffalo by 280 yards in a 52-17 result that prevented the Bulls from clinching the division at the time.

Despite the 6-2 record Northern Illinois played almost exclusively close games in MAC play with seven of eight games decided by 10 or fewer points in either direction. The only lopsided result was a home win over 2017 MAC Champion Toledo but that game featured nearly identical production but a few big turnovers and special teams plays tilting the scales to the Huskies. Northern Illinois actually has a negative scoring differential on the season despite being 7-5, though they outscored MAC foes by an average of 5.3 points per game.

Buffalo outscored foes by an average of 11.0 points per game overall this season and 10.9 points per game in MAC play. Buffalo scored at least 31 points in nine of ten wins this season while five of seven wins for Northern Illinois came with 26 or fewer points scored by the Huskies as these teams have generally been in contrasting types of contests and whoever dictates the pace could have the advantage.

2017 Meeting: In mid-October Northern Illinois visited Buffalo and took 14-3 lead with a pair of early second quarter touchdown drives led by Marcus Childers who ran for the first score and threw for the second. Buffalo would answer with 10 points before halftime including getting a field goal following a fumble for a one-point game at the break, 14-13. Northern Illinois had 1st-and-goal early in third quarter before a Childers fumble and on the next possession the Huskies missed on a 43-yard field goal. Buffalo got zero points after an 81-yard drive early in the fourth quarter with a missed field goal that could have taken the lead and a few minutes later an interception in Huskies territory also cost the Bulls a chance to get in front. Northern Illinois missed another field goal in the final minutes as the 14-13 edge held after a scoreless second half filled with missed opportunities.

Series History:

-- Northern Illinois is 10-0 S/U in this series since Buffalo joined the FBS ranks with the Huskies 7-3 ATS.

-- Northern Illinois has been favored by at least seven points in every previous meeting as this will be the first time Buffalo has been favored in this series and in eight of the previous 10 meetings Northern Illinois has been favored by 14 or more points.

MAC Championship History:

The MAC Championship has been won by the West representative in eight of the last 12 seasons and Northern Illinois has been six of the previous eight MAC championships, winning the title in 2011, 2012, and 2014, with the last title under current head coach Rod Carey.

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Monty Andrews


First-Half Bull Rush

The Buffalo Bulls have their sights set on the MAC Championship ? but the Northern Illinois Huskies stand in their way as the teams prepare to do battle Friday night at Ford Field in Detroit. The Bulls have punished opponents in the opening half of recent games, scoring 28 or more first-half points in three of their previous four games. Buffalo is one of only 17 teams in the country averaging better than 20 first-half points against Division I opponents, while the Huskies find themselves near the bottom of the nation in that category with just nine points per game.

Bettors should consider pouncing on the 1H props in favor of the Bulls. We suggest leaning toward Buffalo on the 1H spread, and we're even more insistent on the Over on the Bulls' 1H total.


Can Memphis Stifle UCF on Third Down?

The Memphis Tigers are the only team over the past year to have a legitimate shot at ending Central Florida's 24-game win streak ? and the visitors will take their third crack at beating the Knights in just over a year as the teams meet Saturday at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando. It's a rematch of last year's American Athletic Conference title game, which UCF won 62-55 in overtime; the Knights also beat Memphis 31-30 earlier this season in their closest call to date. Memphis held UCF to 2-for-12 on third down in that game, and have limited their last four opponents to a 35.2-percent success rate.

Memphis comes in as a 3.5-point underdog, but the Tigers' improved third-down defense ? combined with recent success against a UCF team that will be without without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton ? makes the visitor a trendy cover play. We also like the Tigers to hold the Knights below their 34.5-point team total.


Back to the Touchdown Well

When Boise State and Fresno State met in regular-season action three weeks ago, we recommended taking a Broncos touchdown as the first scoring play because these teams love them some first-quarter TDs. And of course, it was a Boise State field goal that ended up cashing. So let's go right back to that prop as the Broncos and Bulldogs meet again, this time to decide the Mountain West championship at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. The teams combined for 117 touchdowns and just 22 field goals during the season, while converting a combined 22-of-37 field goal attempts.

Boise State is a 2.5-point favorite, and is a good bet to kick off the scoring again. And this time, we like them to actually convert the TD, which pays out at +140.


Going For It

Don't be surprised to see Appalachian State take some chances as they look to secure the Sun Belt championship against Louisiana on Saturday afternoon at Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Mountaineers were one of the top fourth-down teams in the country, making good on 12 of their 20 opportunities (60 percent). And that presents a major challenge for the Ragin' Cajuns, who were downright dreadful on fourth-down defense this season, allowing teams to convert 18 of 24 changes (75 percent) ? the third-worst mark in the nation. App State went 1-for-2 in a 27-17 win over Louisiana on Oct. 20.

The Mountaineers are 16.5-point favorites for Saturday's rematch ? and if they connect on a few fourth-and-short situations, they should be in great position to cover. The potential boost in App State's time of possession will also make the Under on Louisiana's team total of 20.5 a viable option.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tyree Jackson grounded as Buffalo set to play for MAC title
November 29, 2018
By The Associated Press

AMHERST, N.Y. (AP) Tyree Jackson credits his older sister for never allowing the University at Buffalo quarterback to ever get too far ahead of himself.

For all the numbers he's put up in helping the Bulls win a school-record 10 games and reach only their second Mid-American Conference championship game, and amid talk of whether the junior should declare for the NFL draft this spring, Jackson need only to refer to 23-year-old McKenzie Jackson for keeping him grounded.

''There's no room for any of that,'' Jackson said, when asked if he ever gets overconfident.

''I mean, my sister won six national championships for competitive cheerleading at Davenport University,'' he added. ''So any time she'll just send a picture of all her rings in our family group chat to kind of bring me down.''

Tyree Jackson is still searching for his first ring. The closest he came was during his senior year at high school in Muskegon, Michigan, when Mona Shores lost the 2014 Division II state championship to Warren DeLaSalle, 44-8 at Ford Field in Detroit.

Ford Field, just so happens to be where Jackson and the East Division champion Bulls (10-2, 7-1 MAC) will face West champion Northern Illinois (7-5, 6-2) on Friday night.

''I try not to remember the score. But I remember that it was a good experience,'' Jackson said of the outcome four years ago. ''And I always wanted to get back there and kind of get another shot at it.''

Jackson has done his part in helping the Bulls get there, while also assuring the school of just its fourth bowl invitation.

The 6-foot-7, 245-pound Jackson is enjoying a breakout year overseeing a dual-threat offense that's scored 423 points already, 1 short of matching the single-season record set over 14 games in 2008. Jackson's 25 touchdowns passing are tied for second on the single-season school list, and he's also scored seven touchdowns rushing.

His performance has already generated buzz among NFL draft followers, some of whom already rank him as the No. 5 quarterback prospect should he skip his senior season.

Jackson dismisses the talk by saying he's focused solely on whoever's next on Buffalo's schedule.

''Got to keep going. We need more,'' he said, when reminded no one had ever quarterbacked a Buffalo team that had won 10 games in one year.

And to think, Jackson only wound up committing to Buffalo because the Bulls were the first and only school to offer him a scholarship before his senior high school season.

Though he'd attract more interest later, Jackson chose Buffalo out of loyalty, and stuck with his decision after Jeff Quinn was fired after the 2014 season and replaced by current coach Lance Leipold.

''My first impression of him was he was a winner,'' Jackson said about Leipold, who went 109-6 over his eight previous seasons at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater. ''I could tell he had that winning demeanor and that he was going to change the culture at Buffalo.''

Leipold, a former college quarterback, immediately saw the potential in Jackson. Aside from Jackson's physical attributes, Leipold noted what he called the quarterback's ''infectious personality'' as being something players would rally around.

After redshirting in 2015, Jackson took his lumps in going 2-7 as a starter the following year. He made tremendous strides last year in going 5-3, but missed four games with a knee injury.

This season, he's topped 300 yards passing three times, and completed 187 of 337 attempts for 2,605 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

''He hasn't hit his ceiling yet,'' Leipold said.

Buffalo's offense features two top receiving threats in senior Anthony Johnson (45 catches for 820 yards and nine TDs) and junior K.J. Osborn (46 catches for 769 yards and six TDs), and freshman running back tandem of Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, who have combined for 1,669 yards rushing and 23 touchdowns.

The Bulls face a Northern Illinois opponent which features a defense leading the MAC in fewest points and yards allowed, and a unit led by Sutton Smith, who ranks fourth in the nation with 13 sacks.

''Just do what we've been doing,'' Jackson said of the Bulls' approach. ''We can't really change anything just because it's the championship game.''

Much of Jackson's motivation comes from the sting of Buffalo's 2-10 season two years ago.

''It's tough. Those were some long nights that year,'' Jackson said. ''It's awesome to see where we're at now.''

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14


Friday November 30

Northern Illinois @ Buffalo

Game 303-304
November 30, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Illinois
79.817
Buffalo
85.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-3 1/2); Under

Utah @ Washington

Game 305-306
November 30, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
94.981
Washington
105.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 11
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 5
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-5); Over


Saturday, December 1

UAB @ Middle Tennessee St

Game 307-308
December 1, 2018 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UAB
84.450
Middle Tennessee
80.850
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 3 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Middle Tennessee
by 1 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(+1 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Central Florida

Game 309-310
December 1, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
98.165
Central Florida
96.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 1 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 3 1/2
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+3 1/2); Over

Texas @ Oklahoma

Game 311-312
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
103.856
Oklahoma
106.681
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 3
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 8
78
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(+8); Under

LA-Lafayette @ Appalachian St

Game 313-314
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
76.558
Appalachian St
90.781
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 14
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 18
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+18); Over

Georgia @ Alabama

Game 315-316
December 1, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
105.337
Alabama
126.427
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 21
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 13 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-13 1/2); Under

Fresno State @ Boise State

Game 317-318
December 1, 2018 @

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
93.134
Boise State
99.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 2 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(-2 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Clemson

Game 319-320
December 1, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
96.114
Clemson
119.254
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 23
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 27 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+27 1/2); Under

Northwestern @ Ohio State

Game 321-322
December 1, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northwestern
97.601
Ohio State
103.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 6
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 15 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northwestern
(+15 1/2); Under

Drake @ Iowa State

Game 323-324
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Drake
44.743
Iowa State
100.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa State
by 56
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa State
by 42
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(-42); Over

Norfolk St @ Liberty

Game 325-326
December 1, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Norfolk St
34.871
Liberty
70.591
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 35 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 29 1/2
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(-29 1/2); Over

East Carolina @ NC State

Game 327-328
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Carolina
72.852
NC State
92.615
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 20
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 23 1/2
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
East Carolina
(+23 1/2); Over

Marshall @ Virginia Tech

Game 329-330
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
81.448
Virginia Tech
83.355
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 4 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(+4 1/2); Under

Akron @ South Carolina

Game 331-332
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
67.044
South Carolina
93.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina
by 26 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina
by 30
56
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+30); Under

Stanford @ California

Game 333-334
December 1, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
90.065
California
94.663
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
California
(+3 1/2); Under

Southern U @ Alcorn State

Game 335-336
December 1, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern U
55.639
Alcorn State
53.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern U
by 2 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern U
Pick
53
Dunkel Pick:
Southern U
Under