Week 3's college football odds and analysis
Week 3 of the college football season is here and with some huge matchups on the board we're delivering need-to-know notes for cracking the NCAAF odds. Will Texas Tech have their starting quarterback for the big battle against Houston? Stanford will be without Bryce Love and are we primed for a fast start when Boise State visit Oklahoma State? All that and more in this week's best college football odds and analysis.
BIG MOVES
Hurricane Florence has made a mess of the Southeastern Seaboard ? but a handful of teams have made arrangements that will allow some of this week's games to be played with minimal disruption. One of the most notable moves comes courtesy the Virginia Cavaliers, who have relocated Saturday's showdown against the Ohio Bobcats to Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from subpar efforts, with the Cavaliers having dropped a 20-16 decision to Indiana last week and Ohio squeaking past Howard 38-32 despite going in as a 30.5-point favorite.
The line hasn't budged much, with Virginia going in as a 5.5-point fave. But with oddsmakers initially expecting inclement weather to play a role, the move to Vanderbilt has sent the number soaring from a low of 40.5 in some spots to 54 as of Saturday morning. Ohio is 3-9-1 O/U in its last 13 neutral site games, while Virginia is 4-0 O/U in its previous four played in a neutral location.
LAST-MINUTE DECISION
The Texas Tech Red Raiders still haven't named a starting quarterback for Saturday's marquee matchup with visiting Houston ? but bettors are banking on McClane Carter sitting out the game. Carter is nursing an ankle injury suffered in the Red Raiders' season opener, and all Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury has said is that he's "hopeful" his No. 1 QB will return this weekend. True freshman Alan Bowman will get the start if Carter can't go; he was nearly flawless against Lamar, going 22-for-25 for 282 yards and two scores as the sixth true frosh to start at QB in Red Raiders history.
This line opened at Texas Tech -3, but the Red Raiders are now as low as +2 against a Houston offense that has produced 90 points through the first two games. The Cougars haven't allowed more than 27 points in six straight games, and the absence of Carter would undoubtedly make it even more difficult for Texas Tech to reach its team total of 34.5.
NOT HALF BAD
Two of the top first-half teams in the nation square off this weekend at Boone Pickens Stadium as Oklahoma State hosts Boise State in a battle of nationally ranked teams. The Broncos rank second in the nation in first-half points per game vs. FBS foes, having averaged 38 through their first two contests. But they'll meet their match in the Cowboys, who produced 31 first-half points in each of their first two games of the season, both one-sided victories. Oklahoma State is no stranger to fast starts, having averaged 24.8 first-half points in 2017. Meanwhile, this is foreign territory for Boise State, which averaged just 17.1 first-half points last season.
You probably know where this is going: The first-half total for this one is 34 (O -115/U -105), and with both teams expected to push the tempo from the outset, there's a decent chance they'll blow past that number by the break.
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER
On the other side of the coin, there are few teams who have been stronger in the second half than the Illinois Illini, who face a major challenge Saturday against South Florida at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Illini have overcome slow starts in each of their first two games, scoring 48 of their 65 points after the break; that could bode well for the hosts against a Bulls team that has surrendered 35 of its 52 points against in the second half. Both teams have opened the season 2-0, though South Florida comes in as a solid favorite after putting up an impressive 83 points through its first two games.
Bettors aren't exactly enthralled with the Illini's second-half exploits; they opened as high as +8 in some spots but are now up to +11.5. USF is favored by seven in the first half (-110) ? and given Illinois' early struggles, it might be a solid play.
LOVE LOST
The Stanford Cardinal will be without fledgling Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love for this weekend's encounter with visiting UC-Davis. Love, who rumbled for 136 yards and a score in last week's decisive win over USC, was removed from the game in the fourth quarter and taken to hospital with an undisclosed ailment. Head coach David Shaw downplayed the significance of the injury after the game, but Stanford appears to be playing it cautious with their all-world running back in a game the Cardinal are expected to win comfortably.
That said, keep an eye on Stanford's team total for this one; Love was responsible for 19 of its 54 offensive touchdowns last season, and his absence suppresses the Cardinal's scoring potential. Love might also fall right out of the Heisman race; he came into the week at +1,000.
CARDINALS QB CONTROVERSY?
A turf toe injury suffered by redshirt freshman Jawon Pass has created the potential for a quarterback controversy in Louisville. Cardinals head coach Bobby Petrino says he's in wait-and-see mode with Pass and backup Malik Cunningham, who came on in relief of an injured Pass to kick off the second half last week and led Louisville to a comfortable 31-7 win over Indiana State. Petrino suggested that the freshman's health would be something to monitor throughout the week; Pass got through Tuesday's practice without issue.
Expect Pass to be on a short leash if he does get the start for Saturday's encounter with visiting Western Kentucky. The Cardinals are desperate to generate more offense, having started the year 0-2 ATS; they're -22.5 against the Hilltoppers, with the total sitting at 56.5 at most books.
MARTINEZ A GAME-TIME DECISION
Nebraska head coach Scott Frost isn't ready to decide on this week's starting quarterback ? and says he might even wait until "two minutes to kickoff," according to a report in the Lincoln Journal Star. Adrian Martinez is working through a knee injury suffered in last week's 33-28 loss to visiting Colorado and has been limited to participating in Thursday's walkthrough. Given that the Huskers are 10.5-point favorites against visiting Troy, Frost might elect giving Martinez an extra week of rest and starting sophomore walk-on Andrew Bunch, who went 4-for-9 for 49 yards in relief of Martinez in the loss to the Buffaloes.
Nebraska carries a 34.5-point team total into Saturday's encounter with Troy, though that might move if word of Martinez's status becomes available. As it stands, the under becomes an intriguing option with the potential downgrade to Bunch.
ANOTHER GAME MOVED
Georgia has decided to move up the start time of its Saturday showdown with visiting Middle Tennessee State to noon in order to avoid any potential disruptions from Hurricane Florence. The game was originally slated to start at 7:15 p.m. ET. This marks the 11th game affected by the incoming storm, which is expected to make landfall Friday. The Bulldogs will be looking to carry over the momentum from last week's emphatic 41-7 trouncing of South Carolina, with Georgia easily covering as an 8.5-point favorite. MTSU is also coming off a major cover, trouncing Tennessee-Martin 61-37 as a five-point underdog.
Little has changed with regard to the line and total; Georgia comes in at -32, with the total steady at 54.5. It is worth noting, however, that the Bulldogs are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home fave of 30 or more points.
SINDELAR'S STATUS UNKNOWN
Purdue quarterback Elijah Sindelar doesn't know if he'll be on the field for Saturday's tilt with visiting Missouri. Sindelar suffered an undisclosed during practice on Wednesday and did not participate on Thursday; head coach Jeff Brohm suggested that the junior QB will be a game-time decision. It has been a rough start to the season for Sindelar, who has thrown for a paltry 283 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions; he was picked off just seven times all of last season. David Blough will get the call if Sindelar can't go. Blough has completed 18-of-26 passes for 122 yards in relief so far in 2018.
Perhaps bettors are keen on Purdue switching starting quarterbacks ? the Boilermakers opened at +7.5 but have been bet down as low as +5.5 at select books. The total has jumped from a 62 opener up to 65.5.
DEFENSE = OFFENSE AT UTAH STATE
The Utah State Aggies aren't one to limit themselves to offensive touchdowns as they prepare to host FCS Tennessee Tech on Thursday night. Utah State has put up a whopping 91 points through its first two games, highlighted by a 60-13 drubbing of New Mexico State last week; the Aggies had a kickoff-return touchdown and an interception return for a score in the victory, giving them three non-offensive TDs through the first two games of the season. That's nothing new for Utah State, which scored seven non-offensive TDs in 2017 (three interceptions, two fumble recoveries, one kickoff, one blocked punt return.)
There is no line or total for the Aggies' Thursday encounter with Tennessee Tech, but bettors should strongly consider a wager on the home side to score a special teams or defensive touchdown; the Golden Eagles allowed an interception return TD in their season-opening loss to Chattanooga.
KEMPT TO RETURN SATURDAY
The Iowa State Cyclones appear to have dodged a major injury to their starting quarterback. Kyle Kempt suffered a knee injury late in last week's loss to Iowa, but wide receivers coach Bryan Gasser says the redshirt freshman is "moving and trending in the right direction." It isn't yet clear if Kempt will be healthy enough to hit the field for this weekend's daunting tilt with the visiting Oklahoma Sooners; if he sits out, Zeb Noland would likely take over the starting role. Kempt was efficient last week, going 15-for-21 for 126 yards in the 13-3 defeat.
The Cyclones' chances of going over their team total of 17.5 (-110) take a major hit if Kempt is ruled out; Noland has completed just 40 of his 76 collegiate pass attempts, while the Sooners ? who enter Thursday favored by 17.5 points ? have held opposing QBs to a 58.6-percent success rate through their first two games this season.
OREGON STATE'S PIERCE SIDELINED
The Oregon State Beavers will be without one of their top offensive threats for what should be a barn-burner Saturday at Nevada. Junior running back Artavis Pierce is expected to miss the next four weeks after suffering an elbow injury in last weekend's victory over Southern Utah. It's a significant blow for the Beavers, as Pierce racked up 259 rushing yards and three touchdowns while adding four catches for 47 yards in his first two games. Jermar Jefferson will likely get the call as the feature back for the next month, with B.J. Taylor backing him up.
Oregon State opened at +5.5, but that line is now down to +3.5. The total is down only slightly from a 71.5-point opening but remains stout at 70; the Beavers have seen an average of 90.5 total points scored in their first two games.
AZTECS DOWN A QB
It'll be next man up for San Diego State this weekend after starting quarterback Christian Chapman suffered a sprained left MCL that will knock him out of the lineup for the next three-to-six weeks. Chapman suffered the injury in Saturday's 28-14 win over Sacramento State; he had gone 6-of-11 for 112 yards up to that point. While the Aztecs are a run-first team, Chapman still represents a major loss after throwing for 33 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions in his previous two seasons. Ryan Agnew will slot into the starting QB role this weekend against visiting Arizona State while Chapman recovers.
As the news of Chapman's injury was released just prior to the line being set, it has moved only slightly from an Aztecs +5 opener down to +4.5. San Diego State is +175 on the money line, with the total holding steady at 45.5.
Week 3 of the college football season is here and with some huge matchups on the board we're delivering need-to-know notes for cracking the NCAAF odds. Will Texas Tech have their starting quarterback for the big battle against Houston? Stanford will be without Bryce Love and are we primed for a fast start when Boise State visit Oklahoma State? All that and more in this week's best college football odds and analysis.
BIG MOVES
Hurricane Florence has made a mess of the Southeastern Seaboard ? but a handful of teams have made arrangements that will allow some of this week's games to be played with minimal disruption. One of the most notable moves comes courtesy the Virginia Cavaliers, who have relocated Saturday's showdown against the Ohio Bobcats to Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from subpar efforts, with the Cavaliers having dropped a 20-16 decision to Indiana last week and Ohio squeaking past Howard 38-32 despite going in as a 30.5-point favorite.
The line hasn't budged much, with Virginia going in as a 5.5-point fave. But with oddsmakers initially expecting inclement weather to play a role, the move to Vanderbilt has sent the number soaring from a low of 40.5 in some spots to 54 as of Saturday morning. Ohio is 3-9-1 O/U in its last 13 neutral site games, while Virginia is 4-0 O/U in its previous four played in a neutral location.
LAST-MINUTE DECISION
The Texas Tech Red Raiders still haven't named a starting quarterback for Saturday's marquee matchup with visiting Houston ? but bettors are banking on McClane Carter sitting out the game. Carter is nursing an ankle injury suffered in the Red Raiders' season opener, and all Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury has said is that he's "hopeful" his No. 1 QB will return this weekend. True freshman Alan Bowman will get the start if Carter can't go; he was nearly flawless against Lamar, going 22-for-25 for 282 yards and two scores as the sixth true frosh to start at QB in Red Raiders history.
This line opened at Texas Tech -3, but the Red Raiders are now as low as +2 against a Houston offense that has produced 90 points through the first two games. The Cougars haven't allowed more than 27 points in six straight games, and the absence of Carter would undoubtedly make it even more difficult for Texas Tech to reach its team total of 34.5.
NOT HALF BAD
Two of the top first-half teams in the nation square off this weekend at Boone Pickens Stadium as Oklahoma State hosts Boise State in a battle of nationally ranked teams. The Broncos rank second in the nation in first-half points per game vs. FBS foes, having averaged 38 through their first two contests. But they'll meet their match in the Cowboys, who produced 31 first-half points in each of their first two games of the season, both one-sided victories. Oklahoma State is no stranger to fast starts, having averaged 24.8 first-half points in 2017. Meanwhile, this is foreign territory for Boise State, which averaged just 17.1 first-half points last season.
You probably know where this is going: The first-half total for this one is 34 (O -115/U -105), and with both teams expected to push the tempo from the outset, there's a decent chance they'll blow past that number by the break.
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER
On the other side of the coin, there are few teams who have been stronger in the second half than the Illinois Illini, who face a major challenge Saturday against South Florida at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Illini have overcome slow starts in each of their first two games, scoring 48 of their 65 points after the break; that could bode well for the hosts against a Bulls team that has surrendered 35 of its 52 points against in the second half. Both teams have opened the season 2-0, though South Florida comes in as a solid favorite after putting up an impressive 83 points through its first two games.
Bettors aren't exactly enthralled with the Illini's second-half exploits; they opened as high as +8 in some spots but are now up to +11.5. USF is favored by seven in the first half (-110) ? and given Illinois' early struggles, it might be a solid play.
LOVE LOST
The Stanford Cardinal will be without fledgling Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love for this weekend's encounter with visiting UC-Davis. Love, who rumbled for 136 yards and a score in last week's decisive win over USC, was removed from the game in the fourth quarter and taken to hospital with an undisclosed ailment. Head coach David Shaw downplayed the significance of the injury after the game, but Stanford appears to be playing it cautious with their all-world running back in a game the Cardinal are expected to win comfortably.
That said, keep an eye on Stanford's team total for this one; Love was responsible for 19 of its 54 offensive touchdowns last season, and his absence suppresses the Cardinal's scoring potential. Love might also fall right out of the Heisman race; he came into the week at +1,000.
CARDINALS QB CONTROVERSY?
A turf toe injury suffered by redshirt freshman Jawon Pass has created the potential for a quarterback controversy in Louisville. Cardinals head coach Bobby Petrino says he's in wait-and-see mode with Pass and backup Malik Cunningham, who came on in relief of an injured Pass to kick off the second half last week and led Louisville to a comfortable 31-7 win over Indiana State. Petrino suggested that the freshman's health would be something to monitor throughout the week; Pass got through Tuesday's practice without issue.
Expect Pass to be on a short leash if he does get the start for Saturday's encounter with visiting Western Kentucky. The Cardinals are desperate to generate more offense, having started the year 0-2 ATS; they're -22.5 against the Hilltoppers, with the total sitting at 56.5 at most books.
MARTINEZ A GAME-TIME DECISION
Nebraska head coach Scott Frost isn't ready to decide on this week's starting quarterback ? and says he might even wait until "two minutes to kickoff," according to a report in the Lincoln Journal Star. Adrian Martinez is working through a knee injury suffered in last week's 33-28 loss to visiting Colorado and has been limited to participating in Thursday's walkthrough. Given that the Huskers are 10.5-point favorites against visiting Troy, Frost might elect giving Martinez an extra week of rest and starting sophomore walk-on Andrew Bunch, who went 4-for-9 for 49 yards in relief of Martinez in the loss to the Buffaloes.
Nebraska carries a 34.5-point team total into Saturday's encounter with Troy, though that might move if word of Martinez's status becomes available. As it stands, the under becomes an intriguing option with the potential downgrade to Bunch.
ANOTHER GAME MOVED
Georgia has decided to move up the start time of its Saturday showdown with visiting Middle Tennessee State to noon in order to avoid any potential disruptions from Hurricane Florence. The game was originally slated to start at 7:15 p.m. ET. This marks the 11th game affected by the incoming storm, which is expected to make landfall Friday. The Bulldogs will be looking to carry over the momentum from last week's emphatic 41-7 trouncing of South Carolina, with Georgia easily covering as an 8.5-point favorite. MTSU is also coming off a major cover, trouncing Tennessee-Martin 61-37 as a five-point underdog.
Little has changed with regard to the line and total; Georgia comes in at -32, with the total steady at 54.5. It is worth noting, however, that the Bulldogs are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home fave of 30 or more points.
SINDELAR'S STATUS UNKNOWN
Purdue quarterback Elijah Sindelar doesn't know if he'll be on the field for Saturday's tilt with visiting Missouri. Sindelar suffered an undisclosed during practice on Wednesday and did not participate on Thursday; head coach Jeff Brohm suggested that the junior QB will be a game-time decision. It has been a rough start to the season for Sindelar, who has thrown for a paltry 283 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions; he was picked off just seven times all of last season. David Blough will get the call if Sindelar can't go. Blough has completed 18-of-26 passes for 122 yards in relief so far in 2018.
Perhaps bettors are keen on Purdue switching starting quarterbacks ? the Boilermakers opened at +7.5 but have been bet down as low as +5.5 at select books. The total has jumped from a 62 opener up to 65.5.
DEFENSE = OFFENSE AT UTAH STATE
The Utah State Aggies aren't one to limit themselves to offensive touchdowns as they prepare to host FCS Tennessee Tech on Thursday night. Utah State has put up a whopping 91 points through its first two games, highlighted by a 60-13 drubbing of New Mexico State last week; the Aggies had a kickoff-return touchdown and an interception return for a score in the victory, giving them three non-offensive TDs through the first two games of the season. That's nothing new for Utah State, which scored seven non-offensive TDs in 2017 (three interceptions, two fumble recoveries, one kickoff, one blocked punt return.)
There is no line or total for the Aggies' Thursday encounter with Tennessee Tech, but bettors should strongly consider a wager on the home side to score a special teams or defensive touchdown; the Golden Eagles allowed an interception return TD in their season-opening loss to Chattanooga.
KEMPT TO RETURN SATURDAY
The Iowa State Cyclones appear to have dodged a major injury to their starting quarterback. Kyle Kempt suffered a knee injury late in last week's loss to Iowa, but wide receivers coach Bryan Gasser says the redshirt freshman is "moving and trending in the right direction." It isn't yet clear if Kempt will be healthy enough to hit the field for this weekend's daunting tilt with the visiting Oklahoma Sooners; if he sits out, Zeb Noland would likely take over the starting role. Kempt was efficient last week, going 15-for-21 for 126 yards in the 13-3 defeat.
The Cyclones' chances of going over their team total of 17.5 (-110) take a major hit if Kempt is ruled out; Noland has completed just 40 of his 76 collegiate pass attempts, while the Sooners ? who enter Thursday favored by 17.5 points ? have held opposing QBs to a 58.6-percent success rate through their first two games this season.
OREGON STATE'S PIERCE SIDELINED
The Oregon State Beavers will be without one of their top offensive threats for what should be a barn-burner Saturday at Nevada. Junior running back Artavis Pierce is expected to miss the next four weeks after suffering an elbow injury in last weekend's victory over Southern Utah. It's a significant blow for the Beavers, as Pierce racked up 259 rushing yards and three touchdowns while adding four catches for 47 yards in his first two games. Jermar Jefferson will likely get the call as the feature back for the next month, with B.J. Taylor backing him up.
Oregon State opened at +5.5, but that line is now down to +3.5. The total is down only slightly from a 71.5-point opening but remains stout at 70; the Beavers have seen an average of 90.5 total points scored in their first two games.
AZTECS DOWN A QB
It'll be next man up for San Diego State this weekend after starting quarterback Christian Chapman suffered a sprained left MCL that will knock him out of the lineup for the next three-to-six weeks. Chapman suffered the injury in Saturday's 28-14 win over Sacramento State; he had gone 6-of-11 for 112 yards up to that point. While the Aztecs are a run-first team, Chapman still represents a major loss after throwing for 33 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions in his previous two seasons. Ryan Agnew will slot into the starting QB role this weekend against visiting Arizona State while Chapman recovers.
As the news of Chapman's injury was released just prior to the line being set, it has moved only slightly from an Aztecs +5 opener down to +4.5. San Diego State is +175 on the money line, with the total holding steady at 45.5.
