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[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 2
September 9, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2 RESULTS

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 59-18
Against the Spread 36-40-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 57-20
Against the Spread 40-36-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 35-42

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up (neutral site) 0-0

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under (neutral site) 0-0

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up (FBS vs. FCS) 28-1
Against the Spread (FBS vs. FCS) 14-15

The largest underdogs to win straight up
East Carolina (+15.5, ML +500) vs. North Carolina
Eastern Michigan (+15.5, ML +500) at Purdue
Colorado State (+14, ML +425) vs. Arkansas

The largest favorites to cover
Miami-Florida (-61) vs. Savannah State, 77-0
Texas Tech (-49) vs. Lamar, 77-0
Syracuse (-45) vs. Wagner, 62-10

Top 25 Notes

-- Wisconsin won again, topping New Mexico by a 45-14 score, although they failed to cover a 36-point number thanks to a slow start. The Badgers were sluggish, leading the Lobos just 10-7 at halftime before pulling away. This game had a filthy bad beat, too (see below). ... Ohio State dashed through the raindrops to roll up a 52-3 victory against Rutgers in the Big Ten opener for both sides. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon is a slowly moving rain system and it caused plenty of soggy, slippery games all through the Midwest and East including Columbus. A ground game easily favored the Buckeyes, and they were leading 45-0 before the Scarlet Knights ruined the shutout. ... Flordia State provided Willie Taggart with his first victory at the helm in Tallahassee, but it wasn't easy. The 'Noles were trailing for a majority of the game before finally awakening in the fourth quarter to top FCS Samford 36-26. ... Penn State was able to dodge an upset last week, but this week there was no threat of a loss. The Nittany Lions blasted Pittsburgh 51-6 in a rainy matchup in the Steel City.

-- USC-Stanford was one of the most highly-anticipated games of the weekend, but the Trojans offense was never able to get on track. The managed just three points against the Cardinal, their lowest total against Stanford since 1941 when they were shutout. USC has opened the season 0-2 ATS, while Stanford improved to 2-0 ATS.

-- Boise State is off to a hot start, as they crushed Connecticut by a 62-7 count on the Smurf Turf. The Broncos are looking like the Broncos of old, winning their first two games against FBS foes by a combined score of 118-27 while going 2-0 ATS and 2-0 on the 'over'.

-- Michigan State led 13-3 heading to the fourth quarter at Arizona State, but Sparky was able to outscore Sparty 13-0 in the final quarter to give Herm Edwards a huge victory. The Sun Devils have opened the season 2-0 ATS, while the Spartans are a dismal 0-2 ATS.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke grabbed an impressive 21-7 road win against Northwestern, improving to 2-0 SU/ATS. ... After an ugly opening game against FCS No. 2 James Madison, North Carolina State picked up a 41-7 win over Georgia State at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are now 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS so far. ... Virginia Tech annihilated FCS William & Mary by a 62-17, improving to 2-0 SU/ATS. ... North Carolina is off to an inexplicable 0-2 SU/0-1-1 ATS start after getting trucked on the road against East Carolina at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. The last time the Tar Heels played the Pirates, they allowed 70, so at least they improved slightly in that area.

-- Purdue was expected to be a potential bowl team and upper-division team in the Big Ten, but they're 0-2 SU/ATS after a surprising 20-19 loss against Eastern Michigan. While the driving rain in West Lafayette was an excuse, the Eagles also played in the slop, too. ... If you had the 'over' (55) in Western Michigan-Michigan, you don't even need to read the bad beat section below. Meanwhile, the Wolverines were able to bounce back with a win and cover, 49-3. ... It wasn't pretty, but Iowa grinded out a 13-3 win to move to 2-0 SU/ATS, topping rival Iowa State.

-- Oklahoma blasted UCLA 49-21, although the Bruins were able to grab the backdoor cover with a touchdown at 3:41 to go in regulation. The Sooners are averaging 56.0 PPG through two outings. ... Texas Christian was a bit sluggish on Friday night at Southern Methodist, but they shook off the Mustangs in the second half to win 42-12 and cover. However, the 'under' (59) connected thanks to TCU's rock-steady defense in the second half. ... Texas earned their first win of the season by stopping Tulsa, 28-21. The Longhorns are 0-2 ATS to start the new campaign.

-- Is it possible to be on the hot seat after just two games? Arizona's Khalil Tate was believed to be a Heisman Trophy candidate, but that ship likely has already sailed as new coach Kevin Sumlin's group is 0-2 SU/ATS. ... Colorado ruined the debut of Scott Frost at Nebraska, 33-28. The Buffaloes were down eight points midway through the third quarter, but they scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:06 to go. ... After Oregon State got trucked 77-31 in their opener, they returned home to pick on FCS Southern Utah for a 48-25 win and cover.

-- Kentucky snapped a 31-year drough by topping Florida by a 27-16 score in The Swamp, winning outright as a 13 1/2-point favorite. ... Arkansas headed out to Fort Collins for what looked like a simple game against Colorado State, a team which has been awful defensively. The Hogs led 27-17 heading to the fourth quarter, but the Rams easily played their best quarter of the season to outscored the Razorbacks 17-0 and win by seven. ... Missouri picked up a 40-13 win against Wyoming as the Tigers moved to 2-0 SU/ATS. A field goal by the Cowboys with 5:53 flipped the under to an over, although it wasn't quite a bad beat and just a close shave.


Mid-Major Report

-- Temple was dumped at home by Buffalo, as the Owls slipped to 0-2 SU/ATS. In fact, it's Temple's first 0-2 start since 2013. ... South Florida posted a win over a Power 5 team, topping Georgia Tech, 49-38. They won as a three-point short 'dog at home. After a sluggish 34-14 win against FCS Elon, the Bulls looked much better at the Ray Jay in this one. They have a road trip to Illinois next weekend. ... After failing to cover last week, Houston picked up a cover against Arizona. The Cougars are averaging 45.0 PPG through two games.

-- Florida Atlantic rebounded from last week's shellacking in Oklahoma to top Air Force 33-27. The game featured a bad beat, and perhaps two. See below. ... North Texas posted a 58-16 win over FCS Incarnate Word, but they failed to cover the 44-point number. The Mean Green called off the dogs in the fourth quarter and that cost bettors. ... Western Kentucky was dropped 31-28 in Bowling Green, losing to FCS Maine. ... It was also a bad beat if you were holding an 'over' ticket in the Florida International-Old Dominion contest.

-- Ball State gave Notre Dame all they could handle, as the Irish had a hangover from their big win over Michigan last week coupled with a deluge in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus. The Cardinals are now 2-0 ATS and the 'under' has cashed in each of their games. ... Miami-Ohio slipped to 0-2 SU/ATS in their 21-0 loss against Cincinnati. The weather didn't do them any favors, but again, the Bearcats also played in the same conditions. Meanwhile, Cincy is now 2-0 SU/ATS and 2-0 ATS as a road 'dog.

-- UNLV cruised to a 52-24 win and cover against Texas-El Paso. The Runnin' Rebels have posted an impressive 2-0 ATS mark through their first two outings. ... Utah State embarrassed New Mexico State by a 60-13 score, improving to 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS during the early going. ... San Diego State was able to push aside FCS Sacramento State 28-14, but they slipped to 0-2 ATS.

Bad Beats

-- Wisconsin was leading 38-14 with :22 left and a total of 58 1/2. Instead of taking a knee and running out the clock, the Badgers scored a touchdown to make it 45-14 and flip the result from an under to an over.

-- FAU led 33-20 against Air Force, but a blocked punt with :50 left in regulation pulled the Falcons within six. More importantly, it was a bad beat for anyone laying the eight points. In addition, some people had 'under' 59 1/2 or 60, depending on when their wager was placed, so the total was also changed on that play for some, too.

-- Michigan took a 49-0 lead midway through the fourth quarter, so 'over' bettors needed just five or six points to pick up the win at most shops. Western Michigan was driving, but with 2:34 to go and facing a fourth down midway through Wolverines territory, head coach Tim Lester elected to kick the field goal to avoid the shutout. Perhaps coach Tim Lester held an 'under' ticket?

-- FIU-ODU had a total of 51 1/2 points at most shops. FIU led 28-20 through three quarters, but the two sides each went scoreless in the fourth quarter for an excruciating result for those betting the 'over'.

-- In the worst bad beat of the night, Rice-Hawaii had a total of 69. With just 3:01 to go in regulation, there were 50 total points on the board. Hawaii had a 26-yard touchdown to open a 36-22 lead. Navy responded 1:13 later to close the lead to 36-29. After the ensuing onside kick, Hawaii elected to run rather than take a knee, dashing 46 yards for a TD and the painful and unbelievable over.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 2 Rewind
September 10, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Georgia stole the show in Week 2 by going on the road and winning 41-17 at South Carolina as an 8.5-point road favorite. UGA raced out to a 14-0 lead before the crowd could get comfortable in their seats.

On a third-and-seven play on USC?s opening drive, junior quarterback Jake Bentley hit junior RB Rico Dowdle in the hands with a pass that was going to come up short of the first-down marker. But Dowdle couldn?t handle the throw, which went through his hands and hit off his shoulder pads along the sidelines.

The ball bounced off Dowdle?s pads into the air and was caught by Deandre Baker, who returned the interception 56 yards to the fringe of the end zone. Baker then pulled a DeSean Jackson (circa MNF at Dallas when he was with the Eagles) and dropped the ball in celebration before he was across the plane of the end zone.

Fortunately for Baker, Juwan Taylor saw his teammates? potentially crucial mistake and jumped on the ball to get credit for the TD. Two players later on a third-and-eight play, Bentley threw to Dowdle again. And once more, he dropped the pass, this time for what would?ve been a first-down conversion.

UGA promptly drove down the field in four plays and capped the drive with a D?Andre Swift TD run to silence the crowd and take a 14-0 advantage. To its credit, Will Muschamp?s team answered with an 11-play, 75-yard drive to trim the deficit to 14-7. Deebo Samuel found Bryan Edwards for a 13-yard TD pass off a gadget play.

The teams would trade field goals and USC was on the move and into UGA territory late in the second quarter. During that drive, it started to seem as if the Gamecocks might?ve taken Georgia?s best punch, only to weather that storm, and might be on the cusp of getting even just before intermission.

Well, not so much. The Gamecocks? drive would stall on the fringe of field-goal range, and then UGA?s two-minute offense produced a field goal before halftime for a 20-10 lead. Georgia received to start the second half and produced a TD drive. Then after a defensive stop, UGA would score again to go ahead 34-10 and the outcome was no longer in doubt early in the third quarter.

Jimbo Fisher?s rebuilding job at Texas A&M might not take long. The Aggies certainly looked the part Saturday night in front of an electric crowd at Kyle Field, where they played host to Clemson, a program that?s been to the College Football Playoffs for three straight seasons.

The Tigers were able to get on the airplane to go back home unscathed, but they had to dodge a serious bullet in College Station. Dabo Swinney?s club won a 28-26 decision, but Texas A&M easily took the cash as a 12-point home underdog. The 54 combined points inched ?over? the 50.5-point total in the final minute.

Trailing 28-13 going into the fourth quarter, the Aggies made it a one-possession game when Kellen Mond found Quartney Davis for a 14-yard scoring strike with 14:07 remaining. With 46 seconds left, Mond avoided pressure and scrambled to his left and then zipped a dart high into traffic, and Kendrick Rogers elevated to make a spectacular TD grab. However, the two-point conversion failed and the onside kick was unsuccessful.

As gut-wrenching as the defeat was, Fisher had to feel great about producing 501 yards of total offense (compared to Clemson?s 413 yards) against one of the nation?s best defenses. Mond threw for 430 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rogers had seven receptions for 120 yards and two TDs.

Clemson?s Kelly Bryant threw for 205 yards and one TD without an interception. He also ran for a team-best 54 yards and one TD.

Stanford captured a 17-3 win over USC as a five-point home favorite. After being shut down by San Diego State?s defense in a 31-10 season opening win, senior RB Bryce Love rushed for 136 yards and one TD on 22 attempts. TE Kaden Smith had four catches for 77 yards for the Cardinal, which avenged a pair of losses to the Trojans last year.

Kentucky ended the longest active losing streak in an FBS rivalry when it won a 27-16 decision at Florida. The Wildcats had lost 31 straight games to the Gators and hadn?t won in Gainesville since 1979.

UK senior RB Benny Snell gashed the UF defense for 175 rushing yards on 27 carries. QB Terry Wilson ran for 105 yards and one TD on 10 attempts, in addition to completing 11-of-16 passes for 151 yards and two TDs with one interception. The ?Cats won outright as 13.5-point road underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a +425 payout (paid $425 on $100 wagers).

After throwing five TD passes without an interception in a blowout win over FCS foe Charleston Southern last week, third-year sophomore QB Feleipe Franks completed only 17-of-38 passes for 232 yards and two TDs with one interception and a fumble that was returned for a TD on the game?s final play.

If you?re a Gator fan and UF alum (my hand is raised), what was most galling was what we saw out of the offense late in the fourth quarter. When you?re down by 11 points, how on earth is there any thought process other than scoring a TD and then, most importantly (BY FAR!!!), converting a two-point conversion?

I really can?t put into words how much my blood was boiling when Franks found Freddie Swain for a four-yard TD pass with 3:34 remaining. At this point, any QB with a clue signals to his teammates to immediately huddle up and get ready for the two-point conversion. Truth be told, it should be coached into the entire offensive unit that that?s the scenario, but it?s your QB that must lead in this situation. And he should?ve mentioned it beforehand in the huddle a time or two during the drive.

Instead, the entire offense swarms Swain in the end zone celebrating a TD. This is so disturbing on so many levels. First of all, what the hell is there to celebrate about cutting the deficit to five against a UK team you?ve beaten 31 times in a row with less than four minutes remaining and only one timeout left?

Nothing! Nothing is the answer to that question. When the television cameras focused in on Franks, he was literally running off the field without a clue and the play clock was already down to 17 seconds. In other words, it hadn?t even occurred to Franks yet that his team had to go for two. Finally, the offense had to hurriedly huddle up and get a play called.

There was four seconds remaining on the play clock when the Gators broke the huddle. They didn?t get the play off, but the referees inexplicably didn?t whistle them for a delay-of-game flag. The two-point conversion predictably failed and Dan Mullen nearly had to burn his last timeout due to the incompetence of a QB who had zero awareness of time and score.

Ok, let?s move on. As Auburn can attest to circa 2014, it?s not easy to win at Kansas State. Mississippi State made it look that way, though. Joe Moorhead?s club went into Manhattan and dominated from start to finish in a 31-10 victory as a 6.5-point road ?chalk.? Sophomore RB Kylin Hill ran for 211 yards and two TDs on only 17 carries, while QB Nick Fitzgerald produced 159 rushing yards on 19 attempts. The Bulldogs enjoyed a 538-213 advantage in total offense.

Arkansas had a 27-9 lead at winless Colorado State midway through the third quarter, but Mike Bobo?s team rallied to win a 34-27 decision as a 14-point home underdog. The Razorbacks joined Tennessee and Texas A&M as the only SEC teams to lose non-conference contests so far, although the Aggies acquitted themselves extremely well.

Missouri generated 601 yards of total offense against one of the nation?s best Group of Five defenses in a 40-13 home win over Wyoming. Drew Lock connected on 33-of-45 passes for 398 yards and four TDs without an interception. We?ll find out more about the Tigers this week when they go on the road in revenge mode to face a Purdue team?s that?s in desperation mode after dropping a pair of nail-biters at home vs. Northwestern and Eastern Michigan.

I feel like at least 90 percent of college football scribes destroyed Arizona State for hiring Herm Edwards. I was in the minority, praising the hire of a coach who has infectious energy and wreaks of class and integrity. The thinking here was that he?d be able to motivate and recruit extremely well, traits that have led some coaches to enormous success even if when they didn?t have a clue about clock management and other in-game decisions (yes, Les Miles to come to mind here). And after coaching in the NFL for as long as Edwards did, he certainly knows what he?s doing with in-game moves.

This was on full display Saturday night in Tempe as Edwards milked the entire clock to allow his kicker to make a game-winning field goal in walk-off fashion. ASU and Michigan State were tied and the Sun Devils were in the red zone with about 1:45 remaining and had a first down. If you score on the next play, the Spartans have plenty of time to answer and force overtime.

Edwards opted to kneel on it a few times and have the game decided on a chip-shot FG. The strategy worked and ASU improved to 2-0 with a 16-13 win over the Spartans, who brought back 19 starters from a 10-3 team, as a 4.5-point home underdog. The Sun Devils have another tough non-conference game on deck at San Diego State, and the early returns on the Edwards hire are making most national pundits look foolish.

Staying in the Pac-12 South, the hire of Kevin Sumlin at Arizona is a different story compared to the new guy at arch-rival ASU. The Wildcats lost 45-18 at Houston, which was losing to Rice at halftime of its opener last week. Khalil Tate, who ran for 1,411 yards and averaged 9.2 yards per carry in 2017, has run for a total of 22 yards on 15 attempts through two games.

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald continues to light it up. The Warriors knocked off Rice 43-29 to improve to 3-0, but the Owls covered the number as 17-point road underdogs. Bettors on the ?over? like me got a super-fortunate win when three TDs were scored in the game?s final 3:01.

In his first three career starts, McDonald has thrown for 1,165 yards and 13 TDs without being intercepted. He?s also run for 125 yards and two TDs, and he?s only been sacked five times. Hawaii is in a horrific travel spot this week at Army in a noon Eastern kick. The Warriors were 6.5-point underdogs as of early Monday afternoon. Remember, they have already won outright at Colorado State (+17) and vs. Navy (+13) when catching a double-digit ?dog number.

**Quick Hitters**

-- Houston is 2-0 and QB D?Eriq King has a 7/0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- LSU?s Joe Burrow wasn?t nearly as sharp in a 31-0 home win over SE Louisiana.

-- Eastern Michigan is 12-1 ATS in its past 13 games as a road underdog after winning 20-19 at Purdue on a late FG.

-- Maryland was in a letdown spot at Bowling Green and trailed 14-10 at intermission. The Terrapins outscored the Falcons 35-0 in the second half, however, to win by a 45-14 count. They enjoyed a 565-158 advantage in total offense.

-- Texas looked awful again in a 28-21 non-covering home win over Tulsa. The Longhorns host USC this week after losing to the Trojans in double overtime last year.

-- Shea Patterson threw three TD passes without an interception in Michigan?s 49-3 win over Western Michigan.

-- Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is the country?s most important player to his team.

-- Samford enjoyed a 535-457 advantage in total offense in its 36-26 loss at Florida State as a 31-point underdog. The Bulldogs, who jumped out to a 13-0 lead midway through the first quarter and had two different nine-point leads, took a 23-21 advantage into the fourth quarter and the Seminoles didn?t get their first lead of the season until scoring a go-ahead TD with 4:03 remaining. A 63-yard pick-six by Levonta Taylor created the misleading final score in FSU?s favor.

-- The Sonny Dykes Era at SMU is off to a dreadful start.

-- It?s only two games, but Barry Odom?s hire of OC Derek Dooley is looking good so far (I had my doubts coming into the season).

-- Vandy has blown out Middle Tennessee (35-7) and Nevada (41-10) to start Derek Mason?s crucial fifth season with a 2-0 record. The Commodores travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in Week 3. The other two SEC coaches considered to be on the hot seat entering the 2018 campaign are also 2-0 (LSU?s Ed Orgeron and UK?s Mark Stoops).

 

[Cnotes53]

Early Line Moves - Week 3
September 11, 2018

College Football Week 3 Opening Line Report

Where has the early money gone in college football for Week 3? One of the biggest games of the week has seen some serious line movement, as the 4th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes have gone from a 10-point favorite vs. the 15th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs to a -13.5 point favorite.

Let?s look at some of the other big early line moves for Week 3 and also some of the line movement around the key number of three.

Odds per BetDSI

Week 3 Early Line Moves

Ohio State -10 to -13.5 vs. TCU
Bettors are pounding the Buckeyes in this neutral site game against the Horned Frogs. Both teams have looked good so far this season, as the Buckeyes have routed Oregon State and Rutgers, while TCU has rolled over Southern and SMU. It is somewhat surprising that the line has moved this much, especially with the game being played in Arlington.

Central Florida -11 to -14.5 at North Carolina
There is not much love for North Carolina in this game, as bettors have been taking Central Florida like the game is already over. This line has gone past two touchdowns with the Knights road favorites. UCF hasn?t played anyone of note, but they routed Connecticut and South Carolina State. The Tar Heels were competitive in a loss to California in Week 1, but then shockingly were routed last week by East Carolina as 16.5-point favorites. It is rare for a team to lose by double-digits when they are actually double-digit favorites, but that is what happened to North Carolina last week, as they were beaten 41-19.

Georgia Tech pick to -3.5 at Pittsburgh
This game has moved past the key number of three, so you can also put this into the key number line move category. The Yellow Jackets rolled over Alcorn in Week 1 but they were beaten at South Florida last week as 3-point favorites. Pittsburgh is coming off a humiliating loss to Penn State last week, so bettors may be reacting to that defeat.

Kent +37 to +34 at Penn State
Bettors are actually backing a road underdog, as they have taken Kent down from +37 to 34 vs. Penn State. It is rare when an inferior team gets a lot of love on the road against a power team, so this line move may be worth paying attention to. Kent lost by seven in Week 1 at Illinois and covered the spread, so perhaps they can slip under this big number.

Nebraska -7.5 to -10.5 vs. Troy
Bettors are expecting a bounceback from Scott Frost?s Cornhuskers this week on the road at Troy. Nebraska lost a tough one last week to Colorado and now travel to face Troy. The Trojans were blown out by Boise in Week 1 and then routed Florida A&M last week.

Oregon -38 to -41.5 vs. San Jose State
This is more of what we expect from big line moves when it comes to marquee teams facing inferior ones. The Ducks have looked great so far this season and should be able to name the score in this one.

Arkansas State +1.5 to -2 at Tulsa
This line move qualifies simply because it moved more than three points, but the game still is basically a pick and not one to get too excited about.

Key Number Line Moves

Rutgers +4 to +3 at Kansas
This line has moved off the key number of three, but it is a matchup between two rotten teams. It really looks like a game to avoid, but bettors are taking Rutgers.

West Virginia -1 to -3.5 at NC State
The Mountaineers have gone from a one-point choice to now laying more than a field goal on the road at NC State. The Mountaineers have a Heisman Trophy contender in Will Grier, but laying points on the road in conference play can be tricky.

Tulane -2.5 to -4 at UAB
The Green Wave has moved from a 2.5-point favorite to a 4-point choice, so this game has moved right past the key number of three.

Buffalo -3 to -5 vs. Eastern Michigan
This game has moved a little bit to Buffalo and it is past the key number of three. This is another game where the road team is getting some serious action.

 

[Cnotes53]

Alabama at Mississippi
September 11, 2018
By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Preview ? Alabama at Mississippi

The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide visit the Mississippi Rebels on Saturday night in a game that can be seen on ESPN. It should be a high scoring game, as both teams feature potent offenses, as the Crimson Tide have Tua Tagovailoa, while the Rebels feature Jordan Ta?amu. The difference between the two teams is that Alabama has a defense, while Ole Miss does not.

Let?s look at this contest and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, September 15, 2018, 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
College Football Odds at BetDSI: Alabama -20
Alabama vs. Mississippi TV Coverage: ESPN

The Crimson Tide have rolled over Louisville and Arkansas State, covering both games, with each game going over the total, while the Rebels routed Texas Tech 47-27 in Week 1 and then took out Southern Illinois 76-41 in Week 2.

It will be interesting to see what oddsmakers do with the total on this game, because whatever number they put out is not going to be high enough. The Rebels scored 76 points last week in a win over Southern Illinois and Ole Miss has the second-ranked offense in the country. The Crimson Tide are also excellent on offense led by Tagovailoa who is a serious Heisman candidate. It has been difficult to beat Alabama in past seasons, but this year it looks to be even tougher. The previous way to beat Alabama was to shut down the run and force them to throw, but forget about that idea this season, as Tua is an excellent quarterback. He has thrown six touchdowns this season and is averaging 13 yards per attempt.

Matchup to Watch

If the Rebels are to have any chance in this game they will have to score almost every time they have the ball because their defense is terrible. The matchup to watch is the Ole Miss passing attack against the young Alabama secondary. The Crimson Tide went into this season having to replace their top six defensive backs. So far the Crimson Tide has looked good in the secondary, giving up just 235 passing yards per game. Deionte Thompson looks really good and Alabama continues to improve against the pass.

Saturday?s game will be the biggest test for the Alabama secondary. Ole Miss quarterback Ta?amu leads the SEC with 784 passing yards and he is second with 7 TD passes. He?s completing almost 70 percent of his passes, averaging just over 12 yards per attempt. The Rebels have some excellent receivers led by A.J. Brown who is a top receiving prospect for the 2019 NFL Draft. He has caught 15 passes for 251 yards with 3 TDs. D.K. Metcalf has caught 11 passes for 174-yards and 2 TDs. DaMarkus Lodge missed last week, but he has 6 catches for 96 yards.

Key Stats

The Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Mississippi. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September. The Crimson Tide are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Rebels are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Looking at the total, the Over is 5-0 in Alabama?s last 5 games in September. The Over is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games. The Over is 8-2 in the Rebels last 10 conference games.

Alabama vs. Mississippi Picks

I lean toward Alabama in this game, but Ole Miss has the offense to get a backdoor cover. Where I am focusing is on the total. I don?t think oddsmakers can put up a number high enough for this game. Alabama is almost a given to score at least 40 points and I expect them to put up more than 50. Ole Miss will probably be good for at least 20, so I think these two teams will combine to score more than 70 points. I will go over the total in this contest.

Alabama vs. Mississippi Pick: Over the total
Alabama vs. Mississippi Score Prediction: Alabama 54, Mississippi 23

 

[Cnotes53]

Boston College at Wake Forest
September 11, 2018
By Joe Nelson

The second ACC game of the season kicks off Thursday night as Boston College and Wake Forest meet in a battle of Atlantic Division squads that both made bowl games last season.

Clemson is the clear favorite in the Atlantic but the rest of the division looks wide open as the opportunity to compete is there for both squads. The ACC is going to be heavily impacted by Hurricane Florence this weekend and this game has been moved up two hours.

Here is a look at the opening game of the next college football week.

Matchup: Boston College Eagles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Venue: BB&T Field in Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 13, 5:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Boston College -7, Over/Under 52?
Last Meeting: 2017, Wake Forest (PK) 34, at Boston College 10

Anthony Brown had a nice freshman season at quarterback for Boston College although he was injured late in the season and missed the final three games. His worst performance of the season wasn?t vs. Clemson or Notre Dame or any of the other formidable defenses in the ACC; it was a September contest at home vs. Wake Forest.

In his second game Brown completed just 38 percent of his passes and had three interceptions as Wake Forest won easily in Boston. The 4-0 turnover margin was the difference as the production numbers were similar but an interception returned for a touchdown just before halftime put Wake Forest up 21-7 at the break. Boston College scored a field goal to get back within 11 in the third quarter but another interception late in the third quarter set up the Demon Deacons at the 2-yard-line and that score put the game out of reach.

Brown had a big first game of 2018 in Boston College?s 55-21 win over Massachusetts with four touchdown passes but he played sparingly last week in the win over FCS Holy Cross as the Eagles rested starters early with a 21-0 edge in the first quarter. This year?s team has the potential to be the best Boston College offense since perhaps the Matt Ryan years with almost everyone back from last season for Steve Addazio.

Addazio is now 33-33 at Boston College with four 7-6 campaigns and one tough season in 2015. The Eagles are poised to take a step further this season and could even contend in the Atlantic with Clemson visiting Boston in November. Tricky non-conference games at Purdue and home vs. Temple are next on the schedule and the Eagles do have a tough Coastal draw pulling both Miami and Virginia Tech however.

For Wake Forest Dave Clawson has delivered back-to-back winning seasons after going just 6-18 in his first two seasons, taking over after building a successful program at Bowling Green. Wake Forest won eight games last season for the program?s best record since 2008 and the Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start this season. Wake Forest survived an overtime game at Tulane in an opening week Thursday night while besting FCS Towson 51-20 last week.

The quarterback situation has revolved for Wake Forest after the graduation of John Wolford who was a very efficient 3,000 yard passer last season. Junior Kendall Hinton played in five games last season and was the expected starter but he was suspended for the first three games of the season. Sophomore Jamie Newman appeared to be in the mix but he was injured in August. Freshman Sam Hartman has started the first two games and has been effective with 620 passing yards, though he has three interceptions and a fumble already.

The Wake Forest defense has offered some reason for concern as Towson posted 410 yards last week though Wake Forest was able to pull away in the second quarter thanks to a pair of punt return touchdowns from Greg Dortch. The sophomore is on pace to being one of the top receivers in the ACC this season after leading the team in receptions last year. Wake Forest allowed more than 450 yards per game in ACC play last season as this is a team that is going to need to score to pick up wins in conference play.

Boston College allowed just 22 points per game in ACC play last season but they surrendered 386 yards per game as there was some good fortune in the lower scoring numbers. The defense has looked the part this season but as the schedule stiffens there could be challenges with a few key players from last season absent.

The stakes are high for both teams as getting to a 3-0 start would provide a great boost towards bowl hopes. It may be a more critical game for Wake Forest who is in the midst of a five-game home stand but has games vs. Notre Dame and Clemson as a loss here would mean a 3-3 start is likely heading into a road-heavy second half of the schedule.

Winston-Salem is significantly inland but appears to be right on the projected path of the hurricane which is expected to make landfall on Friday. Significant rain is not expected at game time Thursday evening but it will be humid and winds could be in the 20-25 MPH range as the passing and kicking games could face some impact. It is also might mean a subdued home field edge for Wake Forest in what might normally be one of the biggest home dates of the season with a national TV night game.

Wake Forest has covered in nine of 15 meetings since 2003 but has lost S/U in the past two home meetings in 2014 and 2016. The 34 points scored by the Demon Deacons last season was the most they have scored in those 15 meetings while Boston College hasn?t topped 27 points in any of the past 10 games in this series.

Historical Trends:

-- Wake Forest is on a 25-14 ATS run as a home underdog since 2004, going 2-0 last season including an outright upset over Louisville.

-- Since Clawson took over in 2014, Wake Forest is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog although just 3-4 ATS as a home underdog of fewer than 10 points.

-- Boston College is 22-30 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite including going 7-2 S/U but 4-5 ATS under Addazio since 2013.

-- Boston College is 1-3 ATS in that time as a road favorite vs. current ACC teams with this line being the highest ACC road favorite spread for Boston College since a 23-17 win in Winston-Salem in 2014 as a 13-point favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

ACC Report - Week 3
September 11, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 ACC STANDINGS

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Clemson 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Florida State 1-1 0-1 0-2 1-1
Louisville 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
North Carolina State 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Syracuse 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Wake Forest 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

COASTAL DIVISION
Duke 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Georgia Tech 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Miami-Florida 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0
North Carolina 0-2 0-0 0-1-1 1-1
Pittsburgh 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Virginia 1-1 0-0 2-0 1-1
Virginia Tech 2-0 1-0 2-0 1-1

Boston College at Wake Forest (ESPN, 5:30 p.m. ET)
This game has had its kickoff moved up a couple of hours due to the approach of Hurricane Florence to the state of North Carolina, but unlike UNC and N.C. State, they will be playing this week rather than electing to cancel their game. The Eagles head into Winston-Salem as five-point favorites as of Tuesday evening. Boston College enters the game 6-0-1 ATS over their past seven conference games, and 5-0 ATS in their past five outings. In addition, they're 10-1-1 ATS over the past 12 contests dating back to last season while going 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven against winning teams and 13-3 ATS in the past 16 on the road against a team with a winning home mark. Wake has been pretty solid, too, posting a 10-3-1 ATS mark over the past 14 ACC battles while hitting at a 5-2-1 ATS clip across the past eight games at home. However, they're just 3-7 ATS over their past 10 appearances on Thursday and 0-4 ATS in the past four dating back to last season. The 'under' has hit in four straight meetings in Winston-Salem, and each of the past eight in this series, too.

Miami-Florida at Toledo (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hurricanes hit the road for a date with MAC power Toledo, a team which hung with them in South Florida for a half last season before Miami pulled away in the second half. The public loves Miami in this one, but keep in mind that they are 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning teams, 1-5 ATS in their past six overall and 0-4 ATS in the past four road contests. While Toledo is 9-2-1 ATS in their past 12 games in September, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 overall, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference. The under is 8-1 in Miami's past nine road games, but the over is 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles. The over is 7-3 in Toledo's past 10 non-conference contests, too.

Florida State at Syracuse (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles dropped their opening game against Virginia Tech, and that also doubled as their conference opener. They can ill-afford another setback, and face a difficult Syracuse team on the road. The Orange have been putting up video game-like offensive numbers, averaging 58.5 points per game (PPG) at Western Michigan and at home against FCS Wagner. As such, the Orange are seventh in the nation in scoring offense, and 30th in total yards with 508.0 per game. FSU is a much better opponent than their previous two, however, and this will be the biggest challenge yet. Florida State enters the game 0-7-2 ATS across the past nine conference battles, and 1-5-2 ATS in their past eight against winning sides. They're also 0-2-2 ATS in the past four on the road against teams with a winning home record. Syracuse, on the other hand, has covered four straight in September while going 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 overall. The Orange, underdogs by three as of Tuesday evening, might have the advantage. The home team is 5-2 ATS over the past seven in this series. In addition, the under is 6-1-1 in FSU's past eight road games, and 21-7-1 in their past 29 ACC tilts. The under is 9-2-1 in the past 12 at home for 'Cuse, and 13-3-1 in their past 17 inside the league.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (ACC, 12:30 p.m.)
It's another conference opener for both sides when the Ramblin' Wreck invade the Steel City to tangle with the Panthers. Georgia Tech hasn't had difficulty on offense, averaging 39.5 PPG through two outings, but they were trampled for 49 points last week at South Florida and will be looking for redemption. Speaking of trampled, Pitt was embarrassed 51-6 in their rivalry game aginst Penn State, showing how far they are from being an elite team in the nation. These sides met last season in Atlanta, with the Wreck coming up with a 35-17 win on Sept. 23. While Ga. Tech is 0-3-1 ATS in the past four road games, they're an impressive 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the conference. Pitt has posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five following a straight-up loss, but they're 7-19 ATS in the past 26 at home and 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven in the month of September.

Georgia Southern at Clemson (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Tigers of Clemson opened with Furman, faced a tough road trip to College Station for a battle against Texas A&M, and now it's back to Cupcake City. Might there be a letdown after their emotion win last week against the Aggies? The Eagles have posted a 3-9-1 ATS mark over their past 13 road games, and a trip to Death Valley might not be good for turning that around. Clemson is 8-3 ATS over the past 11 non-conference battles, although they failed to cover the opener against FCS Furman and last week's road game at Texas A&M. As of Tuesday evening the Tigers were favored by 33 1/2 at most shops after opening at 35.

Duke at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke packs the road gear for a second straight week after success away from home last week at Northwestern. The Bears also were on the road, toppling Texas-San Antonio to fire out to 2-0 SU this season. These teams met in Durham last season, with the Blue Devils coming away with a 34-20 win on Sept. 16, 2017. Duke could be stranded in Waco for a day or two after the game depending on how the Triangle area is affected by Hurricane Florence, and the approaching storm could be a bit of a distraction for the players, too. They're catching 6 1/2 from the Bears as of late Tuesday evening. Duke is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in the past five overall and an impressive 20-5-1 ATS in the past 26 non-conference battles. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, 2-9-1 ATS in the past 12 following a straight-up win and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five outside of the conference.

Ohio at Virginia (ACC, 4:30 p.m.)
The Bobcats of Ohio hit the road for Charlottesville for their second game of the 2018 campaign. Virginia suffered a setback last week at Indiana under rainy and sloppy conditions in Bloomington. This is a line that is a bit difficult to understand. Yes, Ohio is rested after a two-week layoff since their opening game win against FCS Howard. Remember, the Bobcats won that game just 38-32, struggling defensively at home. They're expected to hang with a mid-tier Power 5 team on the road, keeping it within three? Ohio allowed 645 total yards, and 484 passing yards against the Bison in that opener, and they even gave up 161 rushing yards. Virginia isn't likely to just win this game, but they might smash the Bobcats.

Western Kentucky at Louisville (ACC, 7:30 p.m.)
Things have been good for Western Kentucky in recent seasons, but 2018 appears to be a down year for the Hilltoppers. They lost their opener at Wisconsin by a 34-3 count, but at least they covered the 36 1/2-point number. However, they returned home last week to take on Maine, the 22nd-ranked team in FCS at the time, and the 'Toppers suffered the embarrassing loss on their home field. Now, they take it on the road to Louisville, a team which gutted out a 31-7 win against FCS Indiana State despite several starts and stops due to lightning and inclement weather. The Cardinals enter the game 0-2 ATS, but are favored by 22 1/2 as of Tuesday evening. A few years ago, Louisville should have joined Confernece USA rather than ACC. OK, that's a stretch, but they are 16-4-1 ATS in their past 21 vs. C-USA opponents, although they're just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 outside of the ACC.

Other Games
East Carolina at Virginia Tech (Postponed)
West Virginia at North Carolina State (Canceled)
UCF at North Carolina (Canceled)

 

[Cnotes53]

Big 12 Report - Week 3
September 11, 2018
By Joe Williams

2018 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 2-0 0-0 0-1-1 2-0
Iowa State 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Kansas 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-2
Kansas State 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2
Oklahoma 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0
Oklahoma State 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0
Texas 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Texas Christian 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Texas Tech 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0
West Virginia 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Oklahoma at Iowa State (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
The Sooners and Cyclones will open their Big 12 schedule against each other, and Oklahoma heads to Ames with revenge on its mind after a stunning 38-31 loss against I-State in Norman last season despite being favored by 31 points. The Sooners have managed a dismal 1-4 ATS mark in the past five road games, but they're 5-1 ATS in the past six conference battles. Iowa State failed to cover last week in its opener. They started the season one week late after having their first game canceled due to inclement weather. The offense was sluggish at Iowa, losing a low-scoring battle. Their defense was outstanding, however. Iowa State is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine against teams with a winning record while going 17-5 ATS in their past 22 on a grass surface, 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 in the Big 12 and 18-7-1 ATS across the past 26 overall. The Sooners, and subsequently the favorite, are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings with the over hitting in five of the past six in this series.

Rutgers at Kansas (No national TV, 12:00 p.m.)
The Jayhawks got off the schneid last week with a shocking 31-7 win at Central Michigan, their first road victory since Sept. 12, 2009, They entered last week's game 18-101 with an NCAA-record 46 straight road setbacks, so their emphatic win in Mount Pleasant was rather stunning. In case you were wondering, the last time Kansas had back-to-back victories came way back in 2011, as the opened the season with wins over FCS McNeese State and North Illinois from Sept. 3-10. They haven't won consecutive games against FBS opponents since a four-game win streak from Sept. 12-Oct. 10, 2009 in the final days of the Mark Mangino era. So, should Kansas be favored against another Power 5 conference team? Well, it is Rutgers, and both barely qualify as Power 5. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in the past five non-conference battles, while Kansas is 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 outside of the Big 12.

Boise State at Oklahoma State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
One of the more anticipated and evenly matched battles on the schedule this week features the red-hot Broncos of Boise State in their most difficult contest they might face all season. Oklahoma State has mashed Missouri State and South Alabama, averaging 56.5 PPG, but they're still rather unproven. It will be one of the more interesting games to watch on the schedule, as we find out a lot about both sides. The Broncos enter this game 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference while going 4-1 ATS in the past five road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in the past eight non-conference tilts. As far as the total is concerned, the over is 4-1 in Boise's past five on the road and 11-5 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. The over is 7-1 in the past eight overall for OK State, while going 72-32-2 in the past 106 at Boone Pickens in Stillwater.

Duke at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke packs the road gear for a second straight week after success away from home last week at Northwestern. The Bears also were on the road, toppling Texas-San Antonio to fire out to 2-0 SU this season. These teams met in Durham last season, with the Blue Devils coming away with a 34-20 win on Sept. 16, 2017. Duke could be stranded in Waco for a day or two after the game depending on how the Triangle area is affected by Hurricane Florence, and the approaching storm could be a bit of a distraction for the players, too. They're catching 6 1/2 from the Bears as of late Tuesday evening. Duke is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in the past five overall and an impressive 20-5-1 ATS in the past 26 non-conference battles. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, 2-9-1 ATS in the past 12 following a straight-up win and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five outside of the conference.

Texas-San Antonio at Kansas State (No national TV, 4:00 p.m.)
The Roadrunners pull into Manhattan to battle the Wildcats, and UTSA is looking to pull the upset. It will be a tall order after a 37-20 setback at home against Baylor last week. They're 0-1-1 ATS in two games so far, both times entering as a 17-point underdog. In this one, they're a three-touchdown underdog. UTSA has hit the 'over' in both outings, thanks mainly to 43.0 PPG allowed. K-State barely escaped in a near-miss against FCS South Dakota before they were tattooed at Bill Snyder Family Stadium last week against Mississippi State. They're 0-2 ATS to date, so being favored by more than three touchdowns is a bit curious. Something's gotta give, though, as UTSA is 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road, 1-3-1 ATS in the past five vs. Big 12 foes and 0-5-1 ATS in the past six overall. K-State is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home and 0-4 ATS in the past four in September.

Houston at Texas Tech (FOX, 4:15 p.m.)
It's an important Lone Star state battle in Lubbock, as the Cougars head west from Houston to take on the Red Raiders. Texas Tech already has a loss this season, coming up short in the opener against Ole Miss by a 47-27 count. They bounced back with a 77-0 win over Lamar, but that proved very little outside of the fact they can beat up a lower-level FCS club. Houston has been more consistent, scoring 45 points in each game at Rice and against Arizona, both wins. Their defense has been decent, allowing just 22.5 PPG, but the Cougars D can be much better. They'll need to be against Texas Tech. The public has hopped on the Cougars, as the Red Raiders opener as a 2 or 2 1/2-point favorite at most shops, while the Cougs are now favored by 1 or 1 1/2. Houston is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games, however, although they're 13-6 ATS in the past 19 outside of the AAC. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in the past five at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning record, but 5-2 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference.

Ohio State vs. Texas Christian from Arlington, Tex. (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The marquee game of the weekend takes place at Jerry World when the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs lock horns. Ohio State has won handily against Oregon State and Rutgers, but a battle against TCU is easily the most difficult test. TCU roughed up FCS Southern by a 55-7 count, and then they bounced SMU 42-12 on the road for their first cover. The defense has allowed just 9.5 PPG, but QB Dwayne Haskins and RBs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber easily present the largeest test for TCU. The Buckeyes enter the game 7-1 ATS in their past eight neutral-site battles, while going 6-2 ATS in their past eight battles against Big 12 battles. For TCU, they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven outside the conference while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against the Big Ten. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS in the past 12 neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams. Remember, though, this game is being played in the state of Texas. The 'under is 4-1 in the past five neutral-site games for Ohio State, while going 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in TCU's past four against the Big Ten, 5-1 in the past six agaisnt winning teams and 9-3 in the past 12 overall. However, the 'over' is 9-4 in the past 13 non-conference battles.

Southern California at Texas (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
The USC-Texas should be a marquee game, but both teams have stumbled out of the gate with a loss each through two games. The Trojans offense was listless in Palo Alto last week, managing just three points in a loss to Stanford. While Texas won last week, a win over Tulsa by just seven points didn't make Longhorns fans and alumni forget about the disappointing neutral-site loss against Maryland on Sept. 1. USC enters this game with a dismal 11-27-1 ATS mark over the past 39 road outings, and they're 0-6 ATS in the past six non-conference tilts and 0-5 ATS in the past five in the month of September. While Texas is 6-2 ATS in the past eight tries against Pac-12 clubs, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall, including 0-2 ATS this season. The 'under' is just 4-1 in the past five for USC in the month of September, but the over is 5-2 in the past seven non-conference tilts. The under is 4-1 in Texas' past five non-conference battles, while going 37-18-1 ATS in the past 56 in Austin.

Other Games
West Virginia at North Carolina State (canceled)

 

[Cnotes53]

Notable College Football games canceled due to Hurricane Florence:

ECU @ VTech
Elon @ W&M
Tenn St @ Hampton
UCF @ UNC
WVU @ NC St
S. Miss @ App St
Colgate @ Furman
Marshall @ S Car.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 3 Upset Alerts
September 12, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

NCAAF Week 3 Upset Alerts

After coming out with a solid debut piece with this feature in Week 1, last week's results weren't as spectacular. The overall 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) record from my three selections were not exactly pretty, but the bright spot is the big underdogs (20+) are now 2-0 ATS this season as I'm hoping to hit another one this week.

Yet, it's more about removing this ?kiss of death? I've seemingly been putting on these smaller underdogs who are now 0-2 SU and ATS for me. This is the group where most of the outright ML winners should be coming from and to not have one yet is a little disappointing. But a new week brings new possibilities so let's get right to the plays:

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 0-2 SU; 0-2 ATS

Rutgers +2.5 over Kansas

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights hope their confidence isn't shot after the beating they took against Ohio State last week because nothing unexpected has really happened yet to derail what still could be a good season. Rutgers blew out Texas State as expected in Week 1, got their asses handed to them in Week 2 by Ohio State, and now have a great opportunity to beat a Kansas program that's historically always been bad and has already lost at home to an FCS school this year. Not sure how you can pass this up.

Kansas did find a way to bounce back with a 31-7 SU win as +3 road dogs in Central Michigan last week, but this is not a team that should ever be laying points to any other FBS program. Losing in OT to Nicholls State to start the year as nearly a double-digit favorite proved that that hasn't really changed in Kansas and the school is really just counting down the days until basketball season starts.

On the flip side, Rutgers may have gotten blown out last week, but catching 35 points the optics aren't as bad as just the box score make make it seem. This is still a team that can compete against middle-to-low level programs and Kansas is clearly in that group. Also, Rutgers actually did better vs Ohio State this year than they did a year ago (56-0 loss at home) and they found a way to bounce back with a 35-24 road win over Illinois in their next outing. A similar scoreline could be in store here as Kansas has not won more than three games a season since the 2009 campaign and off a 1-11 SU campaign a year ago, I don't see them getting to three victories in 2018 either.

Rutgers is on a 6-2 ATS run as a program after losing by 20+ points, and are 5-16 ATS after allowing 40+. With Kansas just 1-7 ATS after allowing fewer than 20 points, and 0-4 ATS after a SU win by 20+ points ? which is definitely a rarity for the Kansas program ? Rutgers should not only cover this spread but win this game outright.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS

Iowa State +17.5 over Oklahoma

This is not a game I'd go out looking to try and be the smartest guy on the block with a Iowa State ML wager here as Oklahoma should get SU win with all the athletes they have, but I'm taking all these points here with a Cyclones program that's always a tough out at home and pulled off arguably the upset of the year a season ago in this game.

Last year it was Iowa State's 38-31 win in Norman, Oklahoma that basically had everyone writing off the 2017 season for the Sooners in regards to a CFB Playoff berth. We all know that Oklahoma eventually got in to that game after running the table after this game, but losing outright as a -31-point home favorite has got to sting.

On the one hand, that puts the Sooners in a very attractive revenge angle spot this week against the Cyclones, but going out and looking for revenge, especially big, 17-point revenge on the road is not exactly ideal. It's the first road game for the Sooners this year which means it's the first true road start for QB Kyler Murray, and with junior RB Rodney Anderson now lost for the year, the Sooners roll into town without a lot of veteran experience in tow.

Meanwhile, Iowa State cannot afford to fall to 0-2 SU after losing the instate war with Iowa a week ago. The Cyclones looked like they had a few of those first game jitters in that Iowa loss (Iowa State's Week 1 game was postponed), as the offense got nothing done in the final three quarters. That shouldn't be a concern against an Oklahoma defense that isn't that good at all ? they allowed nearly 30 to a bad UCLA team last week ? and with the physical brand of defense the Cyclones play, there is a good chance this game potentially comes down to the wire again. Oklahoma's likely to pull it out but it won't be by more than two TD's.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 2-0 ATS

Akron +21 vs Northwestern

After successfully fading Notre Dame a week ago after their big win over Michigan, it's back to betting against another Midwestern team, albeit this time from the Big 10 conference.

The Northwestern Wildcats were a very popular underdog in Week 1 against Purdue and managed to cash those tickets for bettors that week. But even those handicappers who were holding a Northwestern ticket that day had to be a little confused about the QB time share HC Pat Fitzgerald employed. Everyone came into the year hyping Clayton Thorson as a legit NFL talent and he can't even play a full 60 minutes in a season opener at a program like Northwestern? If that right there wasn't a sign that maybe plenty of those who are around Thorson every day don't buy into the hype surrounding him at all, I'm not sure what is, and it spells a lot of potential bad things happening to this program in 2018.

Thorson and TJ Green (former NFL QB Trent Green's kid) split time again in Week 2 at Duke, each getting throwing an INT and not really getting much of anything done. So chances are we see both QB's split time again this week against an Akron team that at least at face value to Northwestern's players shouldn't give them much trouble this week. But when you consider that neither of Northwestern's QB's have even thrown a TD pass this year, things could end up being much tougher than they would appear for Northwestern this week.

Akron may have caught a break with their season opener against Nebraska getting postponed as they were then able to open up 2018 with an easy 41-7 win over Morgan State. Akron was not expected to have any issues in that game (-42.5) and they really didn't. More importantly, it gave this team ? especially on offense ? a confidence boost right out of the gate this year and they'd love to parlay it into a road victory over a Big 10 program that's unsure about their own identity. Akron probably won't reach the finish line of that goal, but they should be able to keep it within three TD's.

 

[Cnotes53]

Georgia State at Memphis
September 12, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Matchup: Georgia State at Memphis
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
TV/Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET

When I was on the Chris Vernon Show in Memphis (he?s with Grind City Media these days) in August, I said ?there?s not a game on the schedule that isn?t winnable? for the Tigers. This was a true statement but as we head into Week 3, Mike Norvell?s squad is already in bounce-back mode and its hopes of being the Group of Five representative in a New Year?s Day bowl game have almost certainly been dashed.

Memphis (1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) will look to get back in the win column when it hosts Georgia State on Friday night. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Tigers installed as 27 or 27.5-point home ?chalk? with a total of 58.5.

Norvell?s team came up on the wrong end of a 22-21 decision last week at Navy in a driving rainstorm, falling to the Midshipmen for the third time in four seasons they joined the AAC. Ken Niumatalolo?s team has been listed as an underdog in each meeting with the Tigers, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.

Memphis took a 21-9 lead into the fourth quarter at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. However, three fumbles in the wet conditions proved to be the Tigers? undoing, with Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry orchestrating a pair of TD drives at winning time. Perry?s 19-yard TD run sliced the deficit to 21-16 with 11:06 remaining.

Then with 2:37 left, Zach Abey?s three-yard scamper into the end zone put the Midshipmen in front by merely one point after the two-point conversion attempt failed. Memphis?s last-ditch effort to rally was stymied on a fourth-and-four play when QB Brady White couldn?t find an open receiver and his scramble for a first down came up short of the marker.

The weather obviously had an impact on Memphis?s potent offense that produced 752 yards and 56 points in the first half alone vs. Mercer in Week 1. The Tigers had a 378-316 advantage in total offense at Navy, but they were minus three in the turnover department.

White, the grad transfer from Arizona State, threw for 358 yards and five TDs without an interception in the 66-14 win over Mercer as a 30-point home ?chalk.? White connected on 15-of-25 throws for only 145 yards and one interception at Navy.

Junior RB Darrell Henderson, a first-team All-AAC selection last year when he averaged 8.9 yards per carry, busted long TD runs of 78 and 59 yards against the Midshipmen. He finished the night with 212 rushing yards and three TDs on just 13 carries.

Anytime you can limit Navy to 3.6 YPC, you have acquitted yourself quite well defensively. That?s what the Tigers? defense did, giving up 264 rushing yards on 73 totes. This unit brought back eight starters from a group that gave up 32.5 points per game in 2017.

Sophomore CB T.J. Carter is one of the Tigers? defensive standouts. He garnered second-team All-AAC honors as a freshman by recording 69 tackles, 11 passes broken up, five interceptions for 74 return yards, one tackle for loss, one QB hurry and one forced fumble. Carter has produced eight tackles, one interception for a pick-six, two PBU, one TFL and one forced fumble through two games.

Senior LB Curtis Akins had a team-best 88 tackles last year. He?s pacing his team in stops currently with 13 and has one forced fumble. Sophomore LB J.J. Russell has been making his presence felt with 10 tackles, two forced fumbles, one sack and 0.5 TFL?s.

Henderson is fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game (144.0 YPG), sixth in rushing yards (288), in a fourth-place tie for rushing TDs with four and second in average yards per carry (13.1 YPC). Junior WR Damonte Coxie has been White?s favorite target to date, hauling in nine receptions for 117 yards and one TD.

Georgia State (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) is in its ninth season since the program started under former Georgia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky head coach Bill Curry back in 2010. The Panthers play out of the Sun Belt Conference and are coached by Shawn Elliott, the former long-time South Carolina assistant who replaced Steve Spurrier as interim head coach in 2015.

After serving as an assistant for one more season at USC under Will Muschamp, Elliott scored the Georgia State job and promptly led it to just the second winning season and postseason appearance in program history last year. The Panthers finished 7-5 SU and 5-6-1 ATS, capturing their first bowl-game win over Western Ky. (27-17) as 6.5-point underdogs at the Cure Bowl.

Elliott?s bunch returned six starters on offense and five on defense. Georgia State captured a 24-20 win over Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point home favorite in Week 1. Dan Ellington, a juco transfer who enrolled early for spring practice, won the QB job in camp and enjoyed a successful debut against the Owls. Ellington hit on 20-of-28 passes for 187 yards and three TDs without an interception, in addition to rushing for a team-high 77 yards on 18 carries.

Junior WR Penny Hart is a two-time All-Sun-Belt first-team choice and was a preseason fourth-team All-American in Phil Steele?s magazine. Hart came into the year with 2,281 career receiving yards to already rank third in school history. He had five receptions for 46 yards and one TD vs. Kennesaw State, while Christian Owens, a transfer from South Carolina, had six grabs for 70 yards and one TD.

Georgia State went to Raleigh last week and lost by a 41-7 count as a 25.5-point road underdog. The Panthers drew first blood on their opening drive that was capped by an eight-yard TD scamper by true freshman RB Destin Coates, a 3-star recruit out of Tallahassee Rickards High School.

The final score was a bit misleading, as the Wolfpack only had a 20-7 lead with four minutes left in the third quarter. Georgia State had 349 yards of total offense, but a lost fumble and two failed fourth-down conversions prevented it from scoring more points.

Ellington connected on 15-of-28 throws for 194 yards at N.C. State. Coates ran for 43 yards and one TD on six carries, while Hart had three catches for 53 yards. Devin Gentry brought down five receptions for 83 yards.

Elliott had to be happy with his run defense that limited the Wolfpack to 117 yards on the ground and a meager 3.8 YPC average. Junior LB Ed Curney has produced a team-high 18 tackles and one TFL, while junior DE Terry Thomas has 16 tackles, one TFL and one forced fumble. If the Panthers want to stay close with Memphis, they?ll have to get pressure on White and improve on their sack total (only one!) through two games.

Georgia State is only 1-2 ATS in three games as a road underdog on Elliott?s watch after failing to cover last week in Raleigh. However, the Panthers are 20-7 ATS as road ?dogs since 2012. Meanwhile, Memphis has compiled a 6-7 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite since Norvell took over, but the Tigers have covered the spread in six straight games as double-digit ?chalk? (home or away).

As of Wednesday, the weather forecast was calling for nearly perfect conditions Friday night at the Liberty Bowl.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The Ohio-Virginia game has been moved to Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville due to Hurricane Florence. This game will kick at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Most spots had UVA listed as a six-point home favorite and adjusted the number down to three after the venue relocation was announced Tuesday.

-- The following games have been postponed because of Florence: UCF at North Carolina, West Virginia at North Carolina State and East Carolina at Va. Tech. The time of Thursday?s game between Wake Forest and Boston College in Winston Salem has been moved up to a 5:30 p.m. Eastern kick on ESPN. Finally, Coastal Carolina will take on Campbell on Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

-- This is the second straight season that UCF has lost a game scheduled against an ACC opponent. The Knights were scheduled to take on Georgia Tech last year before a hurricane cancelled the game. The aforementioned contests can only be made up ? since none share the same open date ? on Dec. 1 when the conference-championship games are played. -- Georgia Tech RB KirVante Benson is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Benson was a second-team All-ACC choice in 2017 when he rushed for 1,053 yards and six TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

-- Despite ending its 46-game road losing streak with a 31-7 win at Central Michigan last week, Kansas fourth-year head coach David Beaty remains the +400 ?chalk? to be the first head coach removed from his position. This proposition wager at BetDSI is for Power 5 Conference schools and Notre Dame only with Maryland excluded. The next-shortest odds to take a pink slip are for Illinois? Lovie Smith (5/1), LSU?s Ed Orgeron (6/1), Notre Dame?s Brian Kelly (+750), Rutgers? Chris Ash (8/1), Texas Tech?s Kliff Kingsbury (10/1), Colorado?s Mike MacIntyre (12/1), Missouri?s Barry Odom (15/1), Washington State?s Mike Leach (20/1) and Syracuse?s Dino Babers (20/1).

-- Sportsbook.ag?s latest odds to win the College Football Playoff have Alabama as the +170 favorite (risk $100 to win $170). The next-shortest odds belong to Clemson (+450), Ohio State (+650), Georgia (8/1), Auburn (12/1), Wisconsin (12/1), Notre Dame (15/1), Oklahoma (15/1) and Washington (20/1).

-- Stanford RB Bryce Love is ?out? (rest) for Saturday?s home game vs. UC Davis. The Cardinal is unbeaten with home wins over San Diego State (31-10) and Southern Cal (17-3). They have 40/1 odds to win the CFP at Sportsbook, and I believe David Shaw?s club has the best current value for this future bet.

-- Brian Shoemaker of GameCockCentral.com informed me via e-mail on Wednesday morning that there was a good chance that the Marshall at South Carolina game could get postponed.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 3
September 13, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Week 3 Total Talk

After following the Week 1 CFB moves I outlined a couple of weeks ago would have brought you a 1-2 record, following last week's moves would have flipped the script as they ended up going 2-1. Georgia and South Carolina showed why that huge initial move was warranted (although there was some buy back closer to kick-off) as Georgia really put it on the Gamecocks from start to finish.

Siding with the shift to the 'under' in the Virginia-Indiana game was the other winner for the week, while my thoughts on the USC/Stanford game being the one more likely to score 57 points compared with that Georgia game couldn't have been more wrong. That's how it goes sometimes, and when you figure my Week 1 Best Bet got postponed, it was only fitting for my Week 2 Best Bet to come up short by a single point.

Penn State outscored Pittsburgh 37-0 in the 2nd half of their blowout win, but it was the three TD's in what was already a 30-6 game that my 'under' selection really didn't need to stomach. But that loss is nothing more than water under the bridge at this point as it's time to take a look at what's been happening with these Week 3 totals.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Ohio vs Virginia: Open: 43 ? Current: 54

The Virginia Cavaliers return to this piece for the second consecutive week, although this time it's on the high side of things. The Cavaliers came up short in their 20-16 loss @ Indiana that cashed 'under' tickets for those who followed that move a week ago, but now with Virginia back at home and hosting a MAC squad, it looks like oddsmakers really got this number wrong initially.

I'm not sure I can remember a time in my lengthy time in this industry that I've seen a total move 11 points, and that's not even taking into account that there was some early money on the 'under' in this game, pushing the total in the 40-41 range. Just two days later it sits at 54 and at that number it's basically unplayable unless you're going to go low.

However, that Virginia/Indiana game was probably a little unlucky to stay 'under the total last week as the two teams did combine for 22 of their 36 points in the 1Q alone, and couldn't really get much of anything done after that. Virginia being back at home should smooth out some of that inconsistent play this week ? they put up 42 at home vs Richmond in Week 1 ? and Ohio loves to play fast as it is. The Bobcats lone game was a 38-32 win over FCS Howard as Ohio's defense really showed a lot of holes that afternoon.

Ohio has had a week off to prepare for that matchup which probably will help the defense ? that and some gruelling practices for them these past two weeks ? but given how big this line move has been, I'll be doing nothing but sitting on the sidelines here. Chances are this game will end up landing square in the middle of that range ? ideal for bettors that got 'over' early and 'under' now ? and that's probably why you can only look low now here.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Oregon State vs Nevada: Open: 71.5 ? Current: 69.5

Not as much movement towards 'unders' as per usual during the weekdays in CFB as a lot of games tend to get pumped up during the week with lower limits, only to have the same guys come back the other way late, hoping to get a middle ? won't typically be as good as the middle opportunity above ? in the end. A two-point move is going to be hard to middle in general, but when there are significant 'under' moves early in the week, typically those are the ones you want to pay attention too on at least some level.

For one, after the initial jumps and spikes occur when total lines come out (typically Tuesday mornings in CFB), guys then have time to really look deep into games and try and get ahead of the market. Knowing the general market tends to like to side with 'overs', you'll get more games resemble that of the Ohio/Virginia contest as getting out ahead of the masses is ultimately the goal and betting those 'overs' right out of the gate will often give you plenty of value.

So when you get 'under' moves right out of the gate, the whole thought process has to change. These are still bets being placed with a secondary goal of getting ahead of the masses/line move, but still being made with little to no fear of a possible massive spike upwards as the week goes on that would make a better number available. Oddsmakers can be guilty of waiting for that spike to happen after a first few 'under' tickets have been written, but when it doesn't come, they've got no choice but to follow the money and move the number down.

(As a side note, you can see plenty of 'under' moves be massive with late action coming in on the 'over' but it's less common)

Now regarding this specific game between the Beavers and the Wolfpack, considering three of the four total games these two programs have played in 2018 have cashed 'over' tickets, the lack of 'over' spike and 'under' money had to be respected here. After all, Oregon State has had games of 108 and 73 combined points in them, with the Beavers accounting for 31 and 48 respectively. Even Nevada scored 72 points themselves in the season opener before getting shut down by Vanderbilt last week.

Statistically, especially with both defenses having a rough go of it so far, there is plenty of evidence for an 'over' play here, which makes me respect the 'under' move even more. Obviously it's not the best number available any more, but I'm not sure you can trust either offense in what should be a close game.

Oh, and Oregon State is on a 0-5 O/U run after scoring 40+ points, while Nevada is 1-6 O/U in their last seven non-conference tilts and 11-23 O/U when coming off a SU loss. This is a move I'm going to follow this week for sure.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Total Bet for Week 3

YTD: 0-1

Troy/Nebraska Over 57.5

My play on the 'over' in Nebraska's Week 1 game might have gotten postponed, but although the Cornhuskers fell in Scott Frost's debut with the team I liked what I saw from Nebraska offensively overall last weekend. Granted, QB Adrian Martinez is banged up and won't be at 100% if he plays at all, but Frost has brought that uptempo, super fast offense with him from UCF and regardless of who's taking snaps this week, the Cornhuskers should be able to put up some points.

Troy is a team that gave 56 up to Boise State in Week 1 ? in Troy ? and managed to do enough offensively to make that game at least look respectable by scoring 20 points. That game was the only time in Troy's last six games dating back to last year that they've failed to score 30+, and we did just see Nebraska give up 30+ to Colorado last week.

With a strong majority on the low side of this total when you look at the betting percentages on VegasInsider.com, I've got no problem going the other way here. Frost's new fast-paced offense and suspect defensive team overall still has the Cornhuskers in a situation early this year where I only really want to look 'over' the total in their games before the lines ? and ferocious Big 10 play ? really start to catch up to them.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Report - Week 3
September 13, 2018
By ASA

2018 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Indiana 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Iowa 2-0 0-0 2-0 0-2
Maryland 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Michigan 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-2
Michigan State 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Minnesota 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1
Nebraska 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Northwestern 1-1 1-0 1-1 1-1
Ohio State 2-0 1-0 2-0 1-1
Penn State 2-0 0-0 1-1 2-0
Purdue 0-2 0-1 0-2 1-1
Rutgers 1-1 0-1 1-1 0-2
Wisconsin 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Games Scheduled for Saturday

Ball State at Indiana (-14) - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

BALL STATE ? After rolling over Central Connecticut State in week 1 the Cards caught Notre Dame in a perfect spot for a letdown last week coming off their big win over Michigan. Ball State took advantage of it giving the Irish everything they could handle easily covering the 34 point spread with ease in the 24-16 loss. Ball State was outgained by just 65 yards but also ran a ridiculous 97 offensive plays to just 72 for the Irish. On a yards per play basis the Cardinals were only able to muster 3.6 YPP while allowing Notre Dame 5.75 YPP. The BSU offense has been extremely balanced after two weeks averaging 258 YPG passing and 242 YPG rushing. Their run defense was fantastic last week holding Notre Dame to just 117 yards on 2.7 YPC. Ball State left it all on the field in South Bend and now they must regroup and take on another of the state?s big boys on the road this weekend.

INDIANA ? IU moved to 2-0 and their players and coaches are breathing a sigh of relief after holding on at home vs Virginia last weekend. The Hoosiers (-5) held on for the 20-16 win as the Cavs threatened late and ended the game on the Indiana 27 yard line. Head coach Tom Allen has this team playing much more physical and running the ball on offense which is quite the change from the pass-happy Kevin Wilson regime before him. In two games IU has run the ball 89 times while attempting just 59 passes. Sophomore QB Peyton Ramsey has completed 73% of this passes with 5 TD?s. However the offensive star has been freshman RB Stevie Scott who rushed for 204 yards in last Saturday?s win. This team used to have to put up huge offensive numbers each week because their defense was not a strength. This Indiana stop unit has allowed just 4.75 YPP over their first 2 games so things might be changing in Bloomington.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? These 2 have met 4 times since the start of the 2008 season with Ball State winning 3 of those games (4-0 ATS). The most recent meeting was in 2016 and that was an Indiana win 30-20 as a 16.5 point favorite. The Cards have covered 9 of their last 10 non-conference games. Indiana is now 0-2 ATS this year and they are 1-9-1 ATS their last 11 games dating back to last season. The Hoosiers are just 5-13 ATS the last 18 when favored by 2 TD?s or more (dating back to 1991).

Temple at Maryland (-16) - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

TEMPLE ? The Owls came into the 2018 season with high hopes. Returning a number of key players and coming off a 7-6 season which included a bowl win, this team expected to contend in the AAC. They still could do that, but they are off to a slow start to say the least with an 0-2 record. Two home losses at the hands of Villanova and Buffalo were no fluke as Temple was outgained in each by a combined 226 yards. The offense has been a problem for the Owls as they are averaging just 303 YPG and have scored just 4 offensive TD?s in two games. They also have two special teams TD?s which makes their 23 PPG average a bit deceiving. Their defense has also fallen off allowing 414 YPG through their first two after giving up 380 YPG last season.

MARYLAND ? The Terps had some serious distractions entering the season with their head coach DJ Durkin suspended indefinitely shortly before the season began. The interim leader, Matt Canada, wasn?t even with the team last year throwing another potential wrench in the Terps early season plans. This team has responded unlike many thought they could or would with two easy wins to start the season. After handling Texas as a 13.5 point underdog, the Terps were in a letdown spot last week and rolled over Bowling Green on the road 45-14. Maryland trailed 14-10 at half but exploded for 35 unanswered points after halftime. After Bowling Green put up 151 yards in the first half the Terp defense was lights out in the second half allowing a grand total of 7 yards and no points. They outgained the Falcons 565 to 158 in the dominating performance. This Saturday the Terps host Temple in their first true home. They have to be careful not to look ahead to their Big Ten opener vs Minnesota the following week as the Owls will come in desperate after starting 0-2.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ?The Terps are 7-1 SU in this series which dates back to 1997. Maryland is 2-0 ATS this year covering the spread by a combined 34.5 points. Temple is 0-2 ATS this season failing to cover the spread by a combined 27.5 points. The road team in this series has covered 5 in a row. Since 2013 Maryland has been a favorite of more than 2 TD?s 7 times and they?ve covered 6 of those.

Kent State at Penn State (-34.5) - (FS1, 12:00 p.m. ET)

KENT STATE ? The Golden Flashes come into this game with a 1-1 record which means they?ve already tallied half of the wins they had all last season (2-10 record last year). They rolled an overmatched Howard team last week by a final score of 54-14. It was the first time since 2008 they reached 50 points. However in week one KSU played Illinois on the road which gives us some perspective on this team. The Flashes lost their game at Illinois 31-24 but led 17-3 at half. The yardage was almost dead even in that game so they hung tight with a lower tier Big Ten team. Our takeaway from those two games is their offense is drastically improved. This is a team that averaged 12.8 PPG on just 275 YPG a year ago. They were held to less than 10 points in 5 of their 12 games last year! This year they?ve already scored 78 points in 2 games which is more than HALF their entire point total from 12 games last year (154). They?ve also gained nearly 1,000 yards in 2 games which is about 30% of the entire yardage they gained last year. They?ll have to continue that offensive progression this week to stay within reach of PSU.

PENN STATE ? PSU crushed in-state rival Pitt 51-6 a week ago which has some saying this team is back to top 10 caliber after struggling at home with Appalachian State a week earlier. This is a very solid team but let?s not get ahead of ourselves. Last week?s win in Pittsburgh wasn?t quite as dominating as it may have seemed. The PSU offense only had 390 yards of total offense and outgained the Panthers by just 90 yards. They led just 7-6 late in the 2nd quarter when a few big plays went their way. On their final 3 drive of the half Pitt missed a FG, they were shut out on downs at the PSU 4-yard line, and then fumbled a snap on a punt leading to a short drive TD and a 14-6 halftime lead. The Panthers gained 231 of their 300 total yards by halftime but had just 6 points due to squandered opportunities. The Lions dominated the 2nd half to the tune of 37-0 including a safety and punt return for a score. The Penn State defense was great in the 2nd half as well as Pitt didn?t cross midfield until 30 seconds remaining in the game. That came with an asterisk however as it came after a PSU fumble which was returned across the 50 by the Panther defense.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? These two have met 5 times with Penn State winning all 5 by an average score of 29-6. The most recent meeting was in Happy Valley in 2016 when PSU topped Kent 33-13 but failed to cover the 24 point spread. PSU is just 5-13 ATS (38%) their last 18 as a favorite of 24 or more ? including 0-1 ATS this season. Kent is 2-0 ATS this year covering by a combined 41 points.

Troy at Nebraska (-11.5) (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

TROY ? Troy was throttled by Boise St at home in their first game of the season losing 56-20. They were only outgained by 37 yards in that game but four turnovers did them in. Of Boise?s 56 points, 21 came directly as the result of Trojan turnovers including 2 fumbles returned for TD?s. That loss doesn?t look terrible after Boise rolled again last week beating UConn 62-7. Troy bounced back last week and ripped apart Florida Atlantic 59-7. The flipped the script in week to and rather than giving their opponent points as a result of turnovers, the Trojans scored 28 of their 59 points after four FAMU giveaways. Troy did lose their QB and top RB, however they still have high hopes for this season as they bring back 12 starters and 54 lettermen from a team that finished 11-2 last year including an upset win at LSU.

NEBRASKA ? The Huskers had to wait an extra week for new head coach Scott Frost?s debut after their original opener vs Akron was cancelled due to weather. Last week they played host to Colorado in a game that went back and forth before the Buffs pulled out 33-28 win. After CU took the 33-28 lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining, Nebraska?s back-up, walk-on QB Andrew Bunch was able to drive his team to the Buffalo 20 yard line before time ran out. Bunch was in the game because on the previous series, starting true freshman QB Adrian Martinez was taken off the field with a knee injury. Before his injury, Martinez had accounted for 304 total yards (187 passing & 117 rushing) and 3 TD?s. His injury wasn?t as serious as initially thought and as of this writing he is questionable for this game. Defensively the Huskers looked stronger allowing 395 yards (gave up 436 per game last year) and picking up 7 sacks which was HALF of what they had all of last year (14).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? The most recent two meetings between these two teams came in the 2003 and 2006 seasons. In those two games Nebraska outscored Troy by a combined score of 86-0 and outgained them 943 to 290. Since 1980 Nebraska has covered 60.5% of their games when coming off a SU & ATS loss (46-30-2 ATS). Dating back to 2001, Troy is 36-23 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points.

Rutgers at Kansas (-2.5) - (12:00 p.m. ET)

RUTGERS ? After getting off to a fast start beating Texas State 35-7 in week one, the Scarlet Knights were quickly brought back down to earth last weekend in their 52-3 loss at Ohio State. They trailed 35-0 at half and 45-3 at the end of the 3rd quarter. Rutgers was outgained by nearly 450 yards and totaled only 134 total yards for the game. Looking on the positive side, they at least scored. Each of the previous two years the Knights were shutout by the Buckeyes. Starting true freshman QB Artur Sitkowski left the game with a shoulder injury after completing 6 of his 18 passes for 38 yards. There was no structural damage to Sitkowski?s shoulder and there is a chance he?ll be able to play this weekend at Kansas. If he can?t go, back up Giovanni Rescigno, who threw for just over 500 yards last year, will get the start.

KANSAS ? The Jayhawks put an end to the second longest road losing streak in college football last Saturday when the beat Central Michigan 31-7 as a 3-point underdog. They came into the game having lost 46 consecutive road games. While Kansas did outplay CMU, the score was a bit deceiving. KU only outgained the Chippewas by 80 yards and on a yards per play basis it was very close at 5.0 for Kansas to 4.7 for CMU. Kansas led just 7-0 at half but 5 CMU turnovers in the 2nd half alone led to the comfortable margin. The offense was led by freshman RB Pooka Williams as he rushed for 125 yards and 2 TD?s. Williams did not play in the Jayhawks first game which was an embarrassing home loss to FCS Nicholls State. The Jayhawks are in a rare spot here as they are favored. They have been a favorite vs an FBS team just TWICE since the start of the 2015 season and they lost both of those games outright (vs Central Michigan & Ohio).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? Since late September of the 2009 season, Kansas has been favored (vs FBS teams) just 10 times and they are 2-8 ATS in those games. The only meeting between these two game in 2015 when Rutgers (-13.5) came away with a 27-14 win at home. Rutgers is 1-10 SU their last 11 road games with their only win during that stretch coming at Illinois last year 35-24. This line is getting closer to pick-em and if Rutgers would happen to go off as a favorite it would be rare. They have been a road favorite only once in their last 20 games away from home.

SMU at Michigan (-35.5) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

SMU ? The Mustangs had high hopes coming into the season as they returned 14 starters, including QB Ben Hicks, from a team that went 7-6 a year ago. They did lose their head coach Chad Morris to Arkansas but the Mustangs hired veteran head man Sonny Dykes (former head coach at Cal and La Tech). Well the hopes of a promising start have gone out the window as SMU is 0-2 getting blown out by both North Texas and TCU. They have been outscored by a combined 88 to 35 and outgained by a combined 922 to 498 in those two losses. Dykes also coached this team in their bowl game last year after Morris took off for Arkansas and the Mustangs lost that game as well 51-10 to La Tech. Not a great start for the Sonny Dykes era.

MICHIGAN ? The Wolverines bounced back from their disappointing season opener at Notre Dame with an easy 49-3 win over Western Michigan. They jumped out quickly and led 35-0 at half scoring TD?s on 5 of their first 6 offensive possessions. They ran only 53 plays (WMU ran 74) and attempted only 18 passes in their 49 point performance. After rushing for only 58 yards on 1.8 YPC vs the stout Notre Dame defense, Michigan went for 308 yards on the ground on nearly 9 YPC vs the Broncos. The defense continued to play great. After holding the Irish to just 69 second half yards a week earlier, Michigan gave up just 208 total yards on 2.8 yards per play vs the WMU offense. Not bad against a team that put up over 600 total yards the week before vs Syracuse.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? SMU has covered 6 of the last 7 times they?ve been an underdog of 3 TD?s or more. Their one ATS loss during that stretch was last week vs TCU. Since 2000, Michigan has been a favorite of 31 or more 5 times when coming off an ATS win the week before. They are 0-5 ATS in those games.

BYU at Wisconsin (-22) - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

BYU ? The Cougars got off to a big start two weeks ago beating Arizona on the road 28-23 in what looked like a huge win at the time. Well Arizona went on to lose again last week at Houston 45-18 so not as big of a win as we might have once thought. Add that to the fact that BYU turned around and lost at home to Cal last week maybe the Cougs are right back where we thought they might be at the start of the season. The Bears waltzed into Provo and beat BYU 21-18 as a 2-point underdog. Cal outgained the Cougs by 100 yards in a game that was probably closer than it should have been as 7 of BYU?s 18 points came on a Cal fumble returned 36-yards for a TD. BYU?s defense has been solid in their two games but the offense has been very pedestrian averaging only 4.6 YPP in their two games combined.

WISCONSIN ? The Badgers (-35) got off to a very slow start last week and trailed New Mexico at home 7-3 at the end of the first quarter. Wisconsin only led 10-7 at half. After half they scored TD?s on 5 of their 6 possessions en route to an easy 45-14 win. RB Jonathan Taylor ran for a career high 253 yards and the Badgers outgained the Lobos 568 to 211. New Mexico took the opening drive 87 yards for a TD and then totaled just 124 yards for the rest of the game. The UW defense was bolstered by the return of starting DE Isaiahh Lowdermilk who missed the season opener due to an injury. The defense has allowed only 2 TD?s on the season and Western Kentucky & New Mexico combined to average only 4.37 YPP. The offense will be given a boost this week with the return of WR Danny Davis who was suspended for the first 2 games of the season. In our opinion Davis is Wisconsin?s most talented receiver so his return will be big for QB Hornibrook and the passing game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? These two met in Provo last year and Wisconsin (-14) rolled to an easy 40-6 win outgaining the Cougars by 300 yards. BYU has been a dog of 21 or more only 8 times since the start of the 1980 season. They are 5-2-1 ATS in those games. The Cougars are also an impressive 43-27-1 ATS (61.5%) as a road dog since 1980.

Miami-Ohio at Minnesota (-14) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

MIAMI-OHIO ? The Redhawks come to Minneapolis after losing 21-0 last week to rival Cincinnati. It was the Bearcats 13th straight win over Miami in one of the country?s oldest rivalries. That loss dropped Miami to 0-2 on the season as they lost in week one to Marshall by a final score of 35-28. The Redhawks were actually favored in both games. Despite their two losses they?ve only been outgained by 34 total yards on the season. The problem for Miami offensive has been their inability to run the ball as they?ve rushed for just 87 and 59 yards in their two games. Last week their offense only crossed midfield once the entire game.

MINNESOTA ? The Gophs picked up a big win over a solid Fresno State team last Saturday but also lost their top offensive player in the process. RB Rodney Smith, who?s started 32 career games for the Gophers, was lost for the season due to a knee injury. Smith had 154 yards rushing on 25 carries this year and has run for just under 3,000 yards in his Minnesota career. They will also most likely be without Smith?s back up Shannon Brooks who has yet to play due to an injury suffered during the winter. After scoring 79 points the previous Saturday vs Idaho, the Minnesota defense held Fresno scoreless for almost 3 full quarters in their 21-14 win. The host Gophers actually trailed 14-13 late in the fourth quarter and scored the game clinching TD with just over 3:00 minutes remaining. On their final drive of the game Fresno moved the ball to the Minnesota 4-yard line and had a first and goal with just over 1:00 remaining. Minny (2-0) clinched the win with an interception in the endzone by Antoine Winfield Jr.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? Miami OH is 0-2 ATS this year and lost both games outright despite being favored in both. Favored teams that lose each of their first two games of the season outright are 15-6 ATS in game 3 when facing a non-conference foe. However they are 1-5 ATS the last 6 years the week after facing rival Cincinnati. Since the start of the 2007 season, the Gophers have been a favorite of 14 points or more 16 times. They are 5-11 ATS in those games.

South Florida (-10) at Illinois from Chicago - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

SOUTH FLORIDA ? USF had a cakewalk in week one vs Elon and then played host to Georgia Tech last week and picked up a 49-38 win. However, that was one of the more misleading scores from last weekend. USF was outgained 602 to 426 and had not one but TWO kickoff returns for TD?s in the game (98 yards & 97 yards). The Bulls trailed by 10 points early in the 4th quarter and scored the game?s final 3 TD?s two of those coming as a direct result of Yellow Jacket turnovers. Georgia Tech rolled over this South Florida defense for 419 yards rushing in the loss. Stopping the run looks like a concern for this defense as they allowed Elon to run for almost 200 yards in the opener. Starting QB Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) led the Bulls with 202 yards passing and 91 yards rushing in last Saturday?s win.

ILLINOIS ? Illinois comes in with a perfect 2-0 record but they have been fairly underwhelming in doing so. Their first win came at home vs Kent State in a game the Illini trailed 17-3 at half. Illinois finally took a 31-24 lead in the 4th quarter of that game and had to hang on for dear life as Kent moved the ball to the Illini 4-yard line on their final drive of the game. That was a Kent team that was 2-10 a year ago. Last week they beat Western Illinois 34-14 but needed 3 Leatherneck turnovers and a blocked punt for a TD to pull away. The Illini only outgained WIU by 15 yards and they were actually outgained on a yards per play basis. This versus a Leatherneck team that is now 0-2 with their other loss coming to Montana State. The Illini have only outgained their first two overmatched opponents 5.9 YPP to 5.6 YPP. Illinois is also banged up heading into this game with 2 WR?s now out for the season (Dudek and Carter) and starting QB AJ Bush struggling with an injured hamstring and questionable for this game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? The Illini have played 3 games in their history at Soldier Field and lost all 3 (in 1994, 2013, and 2015). USF (-17) played host to Illinois last year and controlled the game winning 47-23 outgaining the Illini 680 to 354. Illinois is 3-10 ATS their last 13 vs teams outside the Big 10.

Missouri (-6.5) at Purdue - (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

MISSOURI ? The Tigers remember last year?s embarrassment at home vs Purdue when they were crushed 35-3 as a 7-point favorite. Now the Tigers are laying that same number this season but the game is in West Lafayette. Mizzou comes into this revenge game with a 2-0 record having rolled over their first two opponents UT Martin and Wyoming. Offensively they look like they have picked up right where they left off last season scoring 91 points in their first 2 games. This team won 6 straight games to close out last season and averaged 51 PPG during that stretch. So adding in their two games this season, the Tigers have averaged 50 PPG over their last 8 contests. They are led by NFL prospect Drew Lock at QB who already has nearly 700 passing this year, completed 74% of his passes with 8 TD?s and no interceptions.

PURDUE ? We hate to use the term must win game, especially early in the season but that is the bed this Purdue team has made for itself. After a tough loss to open the season at home vs Northwestern, the Boilers fell flat last Saturday and were upset by Eastern Michigan (+16). The 20-19 loss was excruciating for Purdue as they led 19-17 with just over 4:00 minutes remaining and missed a chip shot 38 yard FG which would have given them a 5-point lead. They then allowed EMU to go on a 72 yard drive eating up the final 4:00 minutes of clock and kick the game winning FG as time expired. It was the second straight game that Purdue lost despite outgaining their opponent. Key Boiler penalties kept that final drive alive, something the Boilermakers struggled with as well vs Northwestern. Because of that, head coach Jeff Brohm has said players who commit dumb penalties will now start losing playing time and be taken out of games as they do so.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? Purdue crushed Mizzou on the road 35-3 last year as a 7-point underdog. It was no fluke as the Boilers outgained the Tigers by 275 yards! Missouri has been on quite a spread run since last October covering 9 of their last 11 games with the 9 covers coming by 142.5 combined points (15 points per game). The Tigers have only won 3 of their last 14 road games outright and they are a full TD favorite here. Purdue is 0-2 ATS losing both of their first two games outright as favorites. If this number pushes back to 7, The Boilers are just 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they?ve been a home dog of 7 or more.

Akron at Northwestern (-21) - (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

AKRON ? The Zips come into Evanston with a 1-0 record after throttling FCS Morgan State last weekend. Their season opener at Nebraska was cancelled due to weather two weeks ago. In last week?s 41-7 win over Morgan State, the Akron defense held Bears to just 80 total yards over the first 3 quarters. With some backups in the game and a 41-0 lead, the Zips did allowed 111 yards in the 4th quarter and Morgan State scored their only points with 11 seconds left in the game. Akron is experience on that side of the ball with 11 of their top 12 tacklers back from last year. The offense is a bit inexperienced but they do return dynamic QB Kato Nelson who took over as the starter for their final 5 games last year throwing for just under 1,000 yards and 8 TD?s. Akron was 7-7 last season but they were outgained by an average of 130 YPG so they probably weren?t quite as good as their record in 2017.

NORTHWESTERN ? After taking advantage of turnovers in their opening win at Purdue, the Cats played host last Saturday to Duke and had revenge on their minds. That?s because NW was crushed at Duke last year 41-17. Well this one proves that revenge doesn?t always matter. Duke rolled up another easy win beating the Wildcats 21-7 in Evanston last Saturday. The Devils did so even though they played the entire fourth quarter with starting QB Daniel Jones out with an injury. Jones is now out indefinitely with a broken collarbone. NW ran 88 offensive plays in the game to Duke?s 63. Despite running 25 more plays, the Wildcats offense was only able to muster 7 points. They did have plenty of chances to add to that number but they threw 2 interceptions and they were stopped on downs 4 times in Duke territory. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald continued to rotate QB?s Clayton Thorson and TJ Green as Thorson comes back from a major knee injury.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? The Zips are 0-6 SU and just 1-5 ATS their last 6 road openers. Northwestern played one MAC team last year (Bowling Green) and the Cats won and covered. However, previous to that game, the Cats were just 1-10 ATS their previous 11 games vs the MAC. Since 1980 Northwestern is just 8-18-1 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a SU loss.

Ohio State (-12.5) vs. TCU from Arlington - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

OHIO STATE ? To say the Buckeyes have been impressive in their first two games with head coach Urban Meyer serving his early season suspension. Meyer will miss this game as well before he is back on the sidelines at home vs Tulane. The Bucks should finally be tested this week after obliterating their first two opponents (Oregon State & Rutgers) by a combined score of 129-34. Ohio State continued their domination of Rutgers last week in their 52-3 win. With that win OSU has now beaten the Scarlet Knights each of the last 3 season by a combined score of 167-3! The offense has looked great under the direction of new QB Dwayne Haskins as he has completed almost 80% of his passes with 9 TD?s. The defense looked much better last week after allowing Oregon State to put up 31 points in the opener. They held Rutgers to a miniscule 2.1 YPP on 61 offensive snaps. They forced the Knights to punt on 9 of their 13 possessions with 2 others ending in Rutgers turnovers.

TCU ? It?s safe to say that TCU will be by far the best defense this OSU offense has seen this season. The Horned Frogs brought back 6 starters and 20 letter winners back on that side of the ball. They allowed just 19 PPG last season and have allowed 19 points in two games this season ? both easy wins over Southern and SMU. They?ve also been fantastic defending the pass as their two opponents have combined for only 212 passing yards this season. However, the best offense they faced last year, Oklahoma, did light them up twice scoring 38 & 41 points so it will be interesting to see if they can hold up against the Buckeyes potent playmakers. The Frogs have had an extra day to prepare for this one after taking care of in-city rival SMU last Friday night 42-12. It was a game that TCU led just 14-12 at half before outscoring the Mustangs 28-0 after the break.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS ? Dating back to 2004, TCU is a money making 24-12-1 the last 37 times they?ve been tabbed an underdog by the oddmakers. Digging deeper, the Horned Frogs have been a double digit underdog just 20 times since the start of the 1997 season (ASA?s inaugural season) and they are 16-4 ATS (80%) in those games. Ohio State has been very solid as a double digit favorite away from home hitting 57.5% since 1980 (42-31-1 ATS).

 

[Cnotes53]

Boston College at Wake Forest
September 11, 2018
By Joe Nelson

The second ACC game of the season kicks off Thursday night as Boston College and Wake Forest meet in a battle of Atlantic Division squads that both made bowl games last season.

Clemson is the clear favorite in the Atlantic but the rest of the division looks wide open as the opportunity to compete is there for both squads. The ACC is going to be heavily impacted by Hurricane Florence this weekend and this game has been moved up two hours.

Here is a look at the opening game of the next college football week.

Matchup: Boston College Eagles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Venue: BB&T Field in Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 13, 5:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Boston College -7, Over/Under 52?
Last Meeting: 2017, Wake Forest (PK) 34, at Boston College 10

Anthony Brown had a nice freshman season at quarterback for Boston College although he was injured late in the season and missed the final three games. His worst performance of the season wasn?t vs. Clemson or Notre Dame or any of the other formidable defenses in the ACC; it was a September contest at home vs. Wake Forest.

In his second game Brown completed just 38 percent of his passes and had three interceptions as Wake Forest won easily in Boston. The 4-0 turnover margin was the difference as the production numbers were similar but an interception returned for a touchdown just before halftime put Wake Forest up 21-7 at the break. Boston College scored a field goal to get back within 11 in the third quarter but another interception late in the third quarter set up the Demon Deacons at the 2-yard-line and that score put the game out of reach.

Brown had a big first game of 2018 in Boston College?s 55-21 win over Massachusetts with four touchdown passes but he played sparingly last week in the win over FCS Holy Cross as the Eagles rested starters early with a 21-0 edge in the first quarter. This year?s team has the potential to be the best Boston College offense since perhaps the Matt Ryan years with almost everyone back from last season for Steve Addazio.

Addazio is now 33-33 at Boston College with four 7-6 campaigns and one tough season in 2015. The Eagles are poised to take a step further this season and could even contend in the Atlantic with Clemson visiting Boston in November. Tricky non-conference games at Purdue and home vs. Temple are next on the schedule and the Eagles do have a tough Coastal draw pulling both Miami and Virginia Tech however.

For Wake Forest Dave Clawson has delivered back-to-back winning seasons after going just 6-18 in his first two seasons, taking over after building a successful program at Bowling Green. Wake Forest won eight games last season for the program?s best record since 2008 and the Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start this season. Wake Forest survived an overtime game at Tulane in an opening week Thursday night while besting FCS Towson 51-20 last week.

The quarterback situation has revolved for Wake Forest after the graduation of John Wolford who was a very efficient 3,000 yard passer last season. Junior Kendall Hinton played in five games last season and was the expected starter but he was suspended for the first three games of the season. Sophomore Jamie Newman appeared to be in the mix but he was injured in August. Freshman Sam Hartman has started the first two games and has been effective with 620 passing yards, though he has three interceptions and a fumble already.

The Wake Forest defense has offered some reason for concern as Towson posted 410 yards last week though Wake Forest was able to pull away in the second quarter thanks to a pair of punt return touchdowns from Greg Dortch. The sophomore is on pace to being one of the top receivers in the ACC this season after leading the team in receptions last year. Wake Forest allowed more than 450 yards per game in ACC play last season as this is a team that is going to need to score to pick up wins in conference play.

Boston College allowed just 22 points per game in ACC play last season but they surrendered 386 yards per game as there was some good fortune in the lower scoring numbers. The defense has looked the part this season but as the schedule stiffens there could be challenges with a few key players from last season absent.

The stakes are high for both teams as getting to a 3-0 start would provide a great boost towards bowl hopes. It may be a more critical game for Wake Forest who is in the midst of a five-game home stand but has games vs. Notre Dame and Clemson as a loss here would mean a 3-3 start is likely heading into a road-heavy second half of the schedule.

Winston-Salem is significantly inland but appears to be right on the projected path of the hurricane which is expected to make landfall on Friday. Significant rain is not expected at game time Thursday evening but it will be humid and winds could be in the 20-25 MPH range as the passing and kicking games could face some impact. It is also might mean a subdued home field edge for Wake Forest in what might normally be one of the biggest home dates of the season with a national TV night game.

Wake Forest has covered in nine of 15 meetings since 2003 but has lost S/U in the past two home meetings in 2014 and 2016. The 34 points scored by the Demon Deacons last season was the most they have scored in those 15 meetings while Boston College hasn?t topped 27 points in any of the past 10 games in this series.

Historical Trends:

-- Wake Forest is on a 25-14 ATS run as a home underdog since 2004, going 2-0 last season including an outright upset over Louisville.

-- Since Clawson took over in 2014, Wake Forest is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog although just 3-4 ATS as a home underdog of fewer than 10 points.

-- Boston College is 22-30 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite including going 7-2 S/U but 4-5 ATS under Addazio since 2013.

-- Boston College is 1-3 ATS in that time as a road favorite vs. current ACC teams with this line being the highest ACC road favorite spread for Boston College since a 23-17 win in Winston-Salem in 2014 as a 13-point favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

college football best bets aug-sept.

Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

total..............46-36-0.......56.09%.....+3.00



best bets................. ats ...............units.................. o/u..................units..............days total

09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...................1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.................5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..................2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...................2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00

total......................19 - 12............+29.00.................13 - 8.............+21.00............32 - 20......+50.00


***************************************************


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BC at WAKE 05:30 PM

BC -6.5

U 57.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Brown throws 5 TDs, BC beats Wake
September 13, 2018

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) Anthony Brown kept beating Wake Forest's defensive backs with long throws. That helped Boston College beat the Demon Deacons - and Hurricane Florence.

Brown threw two of his career-high five touchdown passes to Jeff Smith, and BC defeated Wake Forest 41-34 on Thursday night in a game that started two hours early with the hurricane approaching.

''Everybody was on point with what we were doing and everybody was in tune with what we had to execute,'' Brown said.

Brown was 16 of 25 for a career-best 304 yards with touchdowns of 27 and 71 yards to Smith, plus TDs of 35 yards to Kobay White, 29 yards to Tom Sweeney and 40 yards to Ben Glines for the Eagles (3-0, 1-0 Atlantic Coast Conference).

Brown sensed that Wake Forest was determined to not let AJ Dillon, the ACC's leading rusher, run wild by creeping its safeties closer to the line of scrimmage.

''If you don't,'' Brown said, ''he's going to run the ball.''

He did anyway: Dillon finished with 185 yards rushing and scored a 45-yard touchdown on the third play from scrimmage.

''We knew we wanted to throw the ball tonight, and we knew there would be opportunities in the play-action game because the safeties would be violently coming into the box'' to counter Dillon, BC coach Steve Addazio said.

Freshman Sam Hartman was 20 of 45 for 214 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions for the Demon Deacons (2-1, 0-1). His 5-yard score to Jack Freudenthal with 1:33 left made it a seven-point game, but White recovered the ensuing onside kick.

Matt Colburn rushed for 117 yards with a 2-yard touchdown run, Malik Grate recovered a blocked punt in the end zone for another score, and Nick Sciba kicked two field goals for Wake Forest.

Kickoff was moved up to the early evening in an attempt to beat the oncoming, 400-mile-wide storm that was creeping toward the coast some 200 miles from Winston-Salem. While there were occasional gusts of wind blowing across the field, it was a rain-free night with the first half played in sun conditions.

THE TAKEAWAY

Boston College: The Eagles entered the season as a trendy potential challenger to No. 2 Clemson in the ACC's Atlantic Division. With Brown turning play-action passes into long touchdowns, BC is off to its best start since it was 8-0 in 2007 - the year the Eagles climbed to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 and made the first of two consecutive league championship games.

''Honestly, we started preparing for this game in the summer,'' Brown said. ''It was just a feeling of relief, to finally get to this game.''

Wake Forest: This one will sting the Demon Deacons, who had this game circled for months as their opportunity to establish themselves as division contenders. Instead, the secondary's knack for giving up long touchdown passes - Tulane hit on two 50-plus-yard TDs in the opener - wound up costing them.

''Our eyes were in the wrong place,'' coach Dave Clawson said. ''It isn't getting better. It's getting worse.''

STAR WATCH

Dillon cracked triple figures in rushing for the seventh time in eight games dating to last season. BC improved to 8-2 in the 10 games since he took over as the starter midway through 2017.

DOWNTOWN BROWN

Brown surpassed his previous career bests of 279 yards passing and four touchdowns, both set two weeks ago against Massachusetts. ''That's what a big-time player should do, and he did it,'' Addazio said about Brown.

KEY STATS

Wake Forest entered having allowed one sack in two previous games, but Hartman was brought down four times by a BC defense that was averaging 3 1/2 sacks. ... Smith finished with six catches for a career-best 145 yards.

HISTORY

These schools played a 3-0 game three years ago in Boston. This was the exact opposite of that - the highest-scoring game in a series that dates to 1941. It surpassed the 65 combined points scored in 2005, a 35-30 win by BC.

UP NEXT

Boston College: Visits Purdue next Saturday.

Wake Forest: Plays host to No. 8 Notre Dame next Saturday.

 

[Cnotes53]

college football best bets aug-sept.

Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

09/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/08/2018 31-37-2 45.59% -48.50
09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

total..............78-74-0.......51.31%.....-17.00



best bets................. ats ...............units.................. o/u..................units..............days total

09/13/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00....................0 - 1 ..............-5.50...............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/08/2018............13 - 14...........-12.00..................12 - 5.............+32.50............25 - 19......+20.50
09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...................1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.................5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..................2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...................2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00

total.....................33 - 26............+22.00.................25 - 14...........+48.00..........58 - 40......+70.00

 

[Cnotes53]

College Essentials - Week 3
September 14, 2018
By Tony Mejia

Week 2 had a few fun football games that came down to the wire but lacked anything that dramatically altered the national picture. Georgia trounced South Carolina to prove it belongs with the national elite despite losing four of the first 35 picks in this past NFL draft, while USC snuffed out young Stanford.

In the most interesting result, Texas A&M pushed Clemson to the brink of an upset, coming up a two-point conversion short of forcing a title contender into OT

College football is very much about survival on the road, but the Tigers were a 12.5-point favorite and are supposed to be sounder on defense than they looked. Surprises are coming. There hasn't been a blockbuster yet. Will we get one this week?

There are a number of worthy candidates on the list below that could be knocked off, shaking up the college football world. You may not believe there will be any outright upsets, but read the following and see if you at least think it's worth it to take the points in a few of these:

Saturday

Ohio State vs. TCU, 8 p.m. ET, ABC: Horned Frogs QB Shawn Robinson missed a ton of throws against SMU but did manage to create plays with his speed and elusiveness. KeVontae Turpin scored on a punt return and a touchdown catch against but needs to touch the ball more since he?s one of the Big 12?s most impressive athletes. With Robinson playing through expected growing pains, Gary Patterson will need Turpin to make life easier for his quarterback in Arlington this weekend since TCU doesn?t have the volume of playmakers that the Buckeyes bring to the table.

Urban Meyer remains suspended, serving the final game of a penalty the Buckeyes put in place after a lengthy review of a situation that could've ended far worse for him. Interim head coach Ryan Day faces his biggest challenge before handing the team back over. Having outscored his first two overmatched foes by a count of 129-34, it would be interesting to see what happens if some game pressure enters the equation for the first time since the first two games without Meyer were over by halftime. Dwayne Haskins will also be facing the fiercest defense he?s seen since taking over for J.T. Barrett, so we?ll see how he handles increased pressure. His ability to pass the ball accurately down the field has played a huge role in how explosive the Buckeyes have been and should be the x-factor here since TCU is likely to key on stopping the run.

LSU at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: After an impressive debut against Miami, LSU?s Tigers coasted past FCS middleweight Southeastern Louisiana, posting an easy shutout. Auburn destroyed lightweight Alabama State 63-9, so both traditional SEC West powers enter this one confidently. After having plenty of support at AT&T Stadium against the Hurricanes and playing in Baton Rouge last week, QB Joe Burrow will face his first road atmosphere and will likely have to be more than a game manager to produce an upset since they may be a double-digit underdog by kickoff. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham could really enhance his growing reputation as a potential Top-10 pick against a defense fueled by first-round locks in LB Devin White and corner Greedy Williams.

Boise State at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Broncos are averaging 59 points per game through their first two wins and were up 41-0 at the break last week against UConn, allowing them to apply the brakes and cruise home. They outgained the Huskies 514-78 in the first half en route to a record-setting 818 yards of offense. Receiver John Hightower, a highly-regarded JUCO transfer who doubled as a track standout, scored on a 67-yard pass and on a 55-yard run, taking an end-around to the house. Top returning WR A.J. Richardson opened the second half by taking a screen pass 74 yards. UConn is a disaster and Troy looked overwhelmed so we?ll get a better indication of what to make of the Boise offense in Stillwater since the Oklahoma State defense looks formidable.

The Cowboys are transitioning from losing Mason Rudolph and top receiver James Washington to the Steelers and saw top receivers Tylan Wallace and Tryon Johnson help new QB Taylor Cornelius throw for 428 yards against South Alabama last week. Johnson, an LSU transfer, averaged 27.4 yards per catch, while Wallace hauled in 100 balls. Top RB Justice Hill scored twice despite getting only nine carries as Mike Gundy spread out the touches for his running backs but should be the x-factor here since the increased level of competition likely guarantees a heavier workload. Boise comes in healthy after its two blowouts with corner Avery Williams expected to play through an elbow injury.

USC at Texas, 8 p.m. ET, FOX: The Trojans showed some fight in that they never collectively hung their heads but their first road trip of the season produced the program?s first touchdown-less game since a 52-6 loss to Alabama in ?16. Stanford cruised 17-3 as freshman QB J.T. Daniels struggled and didn?t hook up with top target Amon-Ra St. Brown until the fourth. Tyler Vaughns caught seven balls from Daniels, who was picked off twice and completed 47 percent of his passes. The Cardinal whipped their Pac-12 rivals up front, surrendering 3.1 yards per carry while harassing Daniels all night. Meanwhile, Tom Herman is still talking up his group and reassuring a nervous fan base that couldn?t have been thrilled with a one-score game in the home opener against a Group of Five opponent. Although the Longhorns led 21-0 at the break, Tulsa moved the ball well and sabotaged itself with drops and missed field goals. QB Sam Ehlinger was efficient despite a costly fumble and accounted for three of the four touchdowns while true freshman Keaontay Ingram found the end zone and is showing why he was regarded the top prep running back in the Lone Star State last year. Ingram did suffer a knee injury that has been diagnosed as a bone bruise, likely making him unavailable for Saturday?s showdown with USC. Ehlinger doing his best work in the fourth quarter and Cal transfer Tre Watson helping close things out were positives for a Texas team that still appears to be overrated and fragile.

Oklahoma at Iowa State, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: In last week?s rout of UCLA, the Sooners got 306 passing yards from QB Kyler Murray, who also gained 69 on the ground and accounted for five touchdowns. Unfortunately, standout RB Rodney Anderson left with a knee injury that will end his season, so TJ Pledger got some work in alongside Trey Sermon to identify the primary back going forward. The Sooners should still be formidable and remain the Big 12 favorite, but the conference opener against Iowa State got more complicated since the Cyclones bring the best defense OU has seen to date to the table for its first road test. After getting shut down by Iowa, ISU has to be concerned that it doesn?t have enough offense to hang with a high-octane Oklahoma attack, so it will need top RB David Montgomery to fare much better this week to help control possession.

Vanderbilt at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC: The Commodores went up and down the field against Nevada on Saturday but ended up scoreless in the first quarter due to a fumble and put another ball on the ground late in the half. They didn?t take control until the second half but QB Kyle Shurmur and leading returning receiver Kalija Lipscomb continued to show off great chemistry as the receiver set career-bests for catches (10) and TDs (2). Illinois transfer RB Ke?Shawn Vaughn racked up 93 yards and two scores on just 11 carries, strengthening his hold on the primary role ahead of returnees Khari Blasingame and Jamauri Wakefield but the ?Dores are going to need them all to produce to pull off a road upset in South Bend. The Fighting Irish are 27-16 vs. SEC foes and have won both career matchups against Vandy.

Although Vanderbilt has had losing records in every one of Derek Mason's first four seasons, he's looking to start 3-0 for the second straight year and has a team that has played against plenty of quality teams in a number of difficult venues. Notre Dame Stadium shouldn't be too daunting. The 'Dores have struggled away from Nashville though, coming in 5-16 on the road under James Franklin's successor. Safety Zaire Jones will return from suspension to try and aid the Vandy cause, whlle the Irish must toil withouts suspended RB Dexter Williams, who won't return until October. In order to produce an upset, Vandy needs to continue its run of forcing timely turnovers.

Washington at Utah, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN: Wind gusts are expected to play a significant role here, which could bode well for the host Utes since they utilize a spread option run by Tyler Huntley that?s more reliant on the run than the Huskies are. That means Jake Browning-led Washington would be more impacted if the weather does limit how effective the passing game can be on Saturday. The Utes will have top running back Zack Moss in the mix despite an ankle tweak suffered in the fourth quarter of a 17-6 win over Northern Illinois. He got just 16 carries and will certainly get more so long as his wheel holds up since head coach Kyle Whittingham made it a point to say ?he?s a weapon that we need to utilize a little bit more. That is on us coaches.?

The Huskies have their own brilliant back in Myles Gaskin, who has rushed for over 1,300 yards in each of his first three seasons and is now well over 4,000 career rushing yards. They?ve won 10 of 11 meetings against Utah, losing only in 2015 in Seattle, although the last two games have both been one-possession affairs. The Utes blew last year?s game with bad decisions down the stretch, surrendering 10 points in the final two-plus minutes in losing 33-30 on a last-second field goal. They?re the healthier team here since Washington lost left tackle Trey Adams to a back injury just before the season started and haven?t officially divulged whether center Nick Harris will return from an injury-related absence. Linebacker DJ Beavers (foot) is also banged up. Utah leads the country in total defense (143.5 ypg), pass defense (62.0 ypg) and yards per played allowed (2.22) while ranking second in pass efficiency defense (57.12)

Alabama at Ole Miss, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Rebels have a better receiving corps that the Louisville team Alabama saw in Orlando and have 61.5 points per game, though the defense has contributed to a few of those scores. Most of the damage has been done by QB Jordan Ta?amu taking advantage of overwhelmed defensive backs via AJ Brown, DK Metcalf and DaMarkus Lodge, one of the top receiving trios in the country. Scouts are drooling at the prospect of watching them duel with the likes of Savion Smith, Trevon Diggs and special-looking freshman Patrick Surtain, Jr. and should get plenty of opportunities since the Rebs aren?t likely to be able to run the ball effectively and will likely be behind.

Although we may see Jalen Hurts, there?s no longer a QB controversy in Tusclaoosa. Tua Tagovailoa has been tremendous thus far, throwing six touchdowns and averaging 22.2 yards per completion and will presumably get most if not all or the stops with Nick Saban calling this matchup the biggest challenge the Tide has faced thus far. Last year?s game featured current Michigan QB Shea Patterson working with a very young offense that couldn?t execute in a 66-3 loss that produced the most points scored in the Saban era and the largest margin of victory for the Tide since 1979. Ole Miss had won two of three meetings prior to last season, so it was no surprise that ?Bama took no prisoners in Tuscaloosa. It out-gained Ole Miss 613-253. The Crimson Tide come in relatively healthy, while Ole Miss will get guys like LB Kevontae' Ruggs and WR Lodge back. Unfortunately, safely Jaylon Jones is out and will definitely be missed. There's been talk of rain in the forecast, but the latest look calls for storms to stay away and stifling heat ot prevail.

Arizona State at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET, CBSC: The Aztecs fell in the season opener against Stanford and then actually trailed Sacramento State last weekend before turning things around in the fourth. They had scored just 24 points through the first seven quarters and now lose senior QB Christian Chapman for 3-to-6 weeks after he sprained an MCL in the second quarter on Saturday. His run of 31 consecutive starts will end as junior backup Ryan Agnew takes over despite throwing a pair of interceptions in Chapman?s place last week. Agnew has yet to throw his first touchdown pass but is a known commodity to Arizona State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales since he served in the same capacity at SDSU last season and was the safeties coach under Rocky Long since he took over in 2011.

Gonzales? expertise with the Aztecs? complicated 3-3-5 should help Arizona State?s offensive preparation but it will be interesting to see how Rocky Long?s team deals with their own defense considering they know what can be exploited most consistently. This will be a chess match that would certainly favor San Diego State at home if it wasn?t for it starting a backup quarterback. RB Juwan Washington was forced to carry 36 times just to survive the upset bid last week and will again be the primary weapon in his third game as a starter following in the footsteps of SDSU legends Donnell Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny. He?ll be facing a stingy ASU defense that will have everyone in the mix but safety Dasmond Tautalatasi, whose interception in the end zone before injuring his elbow provided a huge lift in the upset of Michigan State. Evan Fields (hamstring) returns this week and will team with redshirt senior Jalen Harvey at the Tillman safety spot named after late Sun Devils star Pat. Star receiver N?Keal Harry will be a huge problem for San Diego State?s secondary and could cause problems the way Stanford?s JJ Arcega-Whiteside managed to in the season opener. Arizona State has won just two of 10 road openers and will need senior starter Manny Wilkins to hook up with Harry to consistently move the ball.

Houston at Texas Tech, 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX: The Cougars don?t play AAC favorite UCF unless they square off in the conference championship, so this looks to be the biggest game they can count on playing since last week?s win over Arizona no longer looks as impressive as they probably thought it would before the season began. Defeating the Red Raiders may also lack shine since they?ve already dropped a game to Ole Miss and don?t figure to compete for a Big 12 title, but this will be the final Power 5 Houston can prey upon until a bowl game. Texas Tech may be down to its backup quarterback, true freshman Alan Bowman, if junior McLane Carter, the team?s most experienced option, can?t shake a high ankle sprain. Next week?s conference opener at Oklahoma State is certainly more important and West Virginia comes into Lubbock to end September, so Kliff Kingsbury could err on the side of cushion and ride with Bowman, who has thrown for 555 yards and two scores without being intercepted but has done the bulk of that work against Lamar.

Whoever starts for the Red Raiders will be dealing with All-American DT Ed Oliver and a defense that has clamped down enough to give up three or fewer points in half of their quarters this season. Texas Tech has won seven of eight in the series but will have to slow down a Houston offense that has scored 45 points in each of their wins with QB D?Eriq King accounting for 10 touchdowns. Tech may also be down its top two options at running back since senior Tre King and sophomore Da?Leon Ward have been limited and will be game-time decisions. The Red Raiders posted their first shutout in a dozen years in a 77-0 rout of Lamar, forcing four turnovers. The offense had three touchdowns called back due to penalties and the team was flagged 14 times despite being overwhelmingly dominant, so they?ve exhibited traits of a young football team learning on the job. Lightning fast freshmen Tazhawn Henry and KeSean Johnson have Houston ties and may factor in heavily against their hometown school. This should be a fun one.

Others to watch: Florida State at Syracuse, Duke at Baylor, BYU at Wisconsin, Missouri at Purdue, Miami, FL at Toledo, Fresno State at UCLA, Middle Tennessee at Georgia, Georgia Tech at Pitt

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GSU at MEM 07:00 PM

MEM -28.5

O 63.0

 

[Cnotes53]

White tosses 5 TDs, Memphis pounds GSU
September 14, 2018

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) Brady White threw for 269 yards and five touchdowns, Darrell Henderson had a career-high 233 yards rushing and two scores, and Memphis beat Georgia State 59-22 on Friday night.

Memphis (2-1) had a successful fake punt on its first possession, leading the first of five straight touchdown-scoring drives. White threw four touchdown passes in the first half as Memphis led 38-10. Damonte Coxie scored twice for his first multi-touchdown game.

Henderson scored from 54 and 61 yards, becoming the second Tiger to rush for 200-plus yards in back-to-back games. He had 212 yards and three touchdowns in Memphis' 22-21 loss to Navy last week.

Kenny Gainwell scored his first touchdown for Memphis on a 72-yard run in the fourth quarter.

Dan Ellington threw for 107 yards and was intercepted once for Georgia State (1-2).

 

[Cnotes53]

college football best bets aug-sept.

Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

09/14/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/13/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/08/2018 31-37-2 45.59% -48.50
09/07/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
09/03/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
09/02/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
09/01/2018 30-22-0 57.69% +29.00
08/31/2018 4-8-0 33.33% -24.00
08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

total..............80-74-0.......51.94%.....-7.00



best bets................. ats ...............units.................. o/u..................units..............days total

09/14/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00....................1 - 0..............+5.00..............2 - 0.........+10.00
09/13/2018.............1 - 0.............+5.00....................0 - 1 ..............-5.50...............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/08/2018............13 - 14...........-12.00..................12 - 5.............+32.50............25 - 19......+20.50
09/07/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................0 - 1...............-5.50...............0 - 2........-11.00
09/03/2018.............0 - 1..............-5.50....................1 - 0...............+5.00..............1 - 1.........-0.50
09/02/2018.............1 - 0..............+5.00...................1 - 0...............+5.00..............2 - 0........ +10.00
09/01/2018............13 - 6.............+32.00.................5 - 2...............+14.00............18 - 8.......+46.00
08/31/2018.............1 - 3..............-11.50..................2 - 4...............-12.00..............3 - 7.........-23.50
08/30/2018.............2 - 1..............+4.50...................2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018.............2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00

total.....................34 - 26............+27.00.................26 - 14...........+53.00..........60 - 40......+80.00