Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

Six more college basketball teams (in betting rotation) with a lot of returning experience this season:

12) Cal-Davis Aggies (Big West)

13) Fresno State Bulldogs (Mountain West)

14) Long Beach State 49ers (Big West)

15) Southern Illinois Salukis (Missouri Valley)

19) Southern Mississippi Eagles (C-USA)

20) Northern Illinois Huskies (MAC)

Quote of the Day
?We know what type of offense we?re playing. They do the same thing, year in and year out. This is five years in a row now, so it makes it real easy to gameplan when an offense does the same thing every year.?
Washington Huskies? DC Jimmy Lake, trolling Washington State after the Huskies? win

Saturday?s quiz
What other D-I team has Mike Leach coached, besides Washington State?

Friday?s quiz
Wade Phillips was coach of the Dallas Cowboys before Jason Garrett.

Thursday?s quiz
Detroit Lions? coach Matt Patricia went to college at RPI in Troy, NY.

******************

Saturday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a busy Black Friday?..

13) Why the Redskins have a big problem; Alex Smith?s strength as a QB is ?not losing? games; the last three years, Kansas City had a +45 turnover ratio (in 48 regular season games). This season, Washington?s turnover ratio was +12 in Smith?s ten starts.

A +57 turnover ratio in 58 NFL games is pretty damn strong.

But now Smith has a broken leg and Colt McCoy is Washington?s QB; a team that is built on good defense and protecting the ball on offense threw three INTs in Dallas Thursday, and now they?re not in first place anymore, though they?re still close.

What happens if all four teams in the NFC East wind up 8-8?

12) Oklahoma 59, West Virginia 56:
? Total on this game closed at 88, the highest total ever.
? How much do the defensive coordinators for these teams get paid?
? Seems like neither defense is very well-coordinated. Halftime score was 35-28.
? West Virginia gained 704 yards on 90 plays, but lost.
? Oklahoma gained 668 yards on only 65 plays.
? Sooners also scored two defensive TD?s.

11) Virginia 53, Wisconsin 46? Cavaliers win the Battle for Atlantis; the last four years, team that won this tournament made the Final Four three times- the 4th team lost in the Sweet 16.

10) Lamar Jackson will start at QB again for the Ravens this week; it will be his 2nd NFL start.

Josh McCown will start again for the Jets; it will be his 75th career start, the first of which happened when Lamar Jackson was five years old.

9) Central Florida 38, South Florida 10? Knights remain unbeaten but they lost their QB McKenzie Milton with what appeared to be a severe leg injury.

8) Chicago Bears? Eddie Jackson was a 4th round draft pick in 2017, out of Alabama; he?s scored five TD?s in his first 27 NFL games, and he?s a damn safety!!!

7) Baseball writers who plan on voting for David Ortiz for the Hall of Fame when he becomes eligible better be voting for Edgar Martinez this year, too.

Career OPS of .933, 309 homers, seven All-Star Games. Martinez shouldn?t be penalized for playing his whole career in Seattle, out of the national spotlight.

6) Harold and Tina Ehrenberg, a couple from Mandeville, LA, were cleaning their house to get ready for hosting Thanksgiving dinner, when they found a lottery ticket they?d bought months earlier. The ticket turned out to be worth $1.8M; Happy Thanksgiving!!!!

5) Stanford?s basketball team scored 46-49 points in losing their first two games at the Battle for Atlantis; it was the first time since 1961 that Stanford scored less than 50 points in consecutive games. Cardinal rallied to beat Middle Tennessee 67-54 in the 7th place game Friday.

4) Marquette has a 6-8 freshman named Brendan Bailey who is the son of Thurl Bailey, the former NC State star who played 13 years in the NBA, scoring over 11,000 points.

3) Marquette 77, Louisville 74 OT? Every November I?m reminded of how much I dislike Jay Bilas as an ESPN analyst; its like the swallows returning to Capistrano. Bilas should be a referee supervisor, because thats about half of all his analysis- ripping the officials.

To me, listening to really good announcers is like listening to a couple of friends talk about a game; we?re not going to agree on everything, but you enjoy the debate. When Bilas is on a game, half the time I feel like I?m being scolded.

This was an interesting game, but not sure how good these teams are. Marquette is 77-61 in Wolciechowski?s 4+ years as coach (31-41 in Big East games), Louisville is rebuilding with Chris Mack taking over as they start the post-Pitino era.

2) North Carolina 94, UCLA 78? Bruins led by 5 at halftime, so not only did UCLA lose both its game in Las Vegas, they were outscored by 20+ points in a half in both games. Safe to say that the natives in Westwood are getting a little annoyed with the Steve Alford era.

1) Kent State 77, Vanderbilt 75? Commodores were a 12-point favorite and lost, but thats not the worst news; star freshman Darius Garland hurt his knee- the exact extent of the injury is not yet known, but the loss of the 6-2 NBA prospect would be a huge blow to Vandy?s hopes.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 13
November 23, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Week 13 Total Talk

Week 12's moving totals from last week ended up finishing with a 1-2 record, as steam chasers on the 'over' in the Syracuse/Notre Dame game could have ripped up their tickets when 'Cuse QB Eric Dungey left early with an injury. The Iowa/Texas game brought the defense ? especially in the 2nd half ? for the week's lone winner, while I probably tried to get a little too cute with that 'under' in West Virginia/Oklahoma State. Mistakes will be made in this business and as long as you can learn from them ? even the winning tickets you get bailed out on ? for future wagers, one ?bad? bet could turn out to be a very good one in the sense of future earnings.

But it's on to the final week of the regular season for the bulk of the conferences this weekend, and while rivalry games and CFB Playoff implications are the headlines on Saturday, I'm looking for these totals I've isolated to be some of the more talked about ones in the betting market, win or lose.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Stanford vs UCLA: Open: 57.5 ? Current: 59.5

Fresh off an upset win over USC in the battle of LA, the UCLA Bruins are once again a favorite for 'over' bettors this week as they welcome in a well-rested Stanford bunch. The Cardinal got an unscheduled bye week last Saturday as the California wildfires force them to postpone their game with Cal, and although there wasn't necessarily any more game-planning done for this UCLA tilt, the extra time to rest up some bumps and bruises never hurts.

But this move has got to be more about this UCLA team than anything, as Chip Kelly's offense is finally showing signs of sinking in with his players as it's now been six of the last seven weeks where they've scored 20+ points after struggling to reach that number for the first month. Outside of a 41-10 loss to a very stingy Utah defense, the Bruins have had quite a bit of success at home since October hit, and Stanford's defense this year is nowhere near what it's been in previous years.

What is a little surprising about this move though, is the fact that Stanford's last two trips to UCLA to face the Bruins have resulted in easy 'under' results (35 and 41 points respectively), but like I said, you can't really compare this year's Stanford defense to the one they've had in recent memory when they were competing for Pac-12 titles annually. Chip Kelly's offensive mind is also a factor in that too, and when the most recent matchup between these programs finished with 92 points, 'over' money was likely destined to be the popular side here.

If you trust Chip Kelly's offense to find success here then following the steam isn't a horrible option. Having the total open up above the key number of 57 and really only passing through a slightly key number in 58, it's not like this move is as big as it appears. When Kelly was the head man at Oregon, he did manage to score 40+ in three of his four meetings with Stanford, so there is that to lean on, and with the Bruins defense having allowed an average of 34.3 points per game over their last five, it's got to be an 'over' or nothing now for this game.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Rutgers vs Michigan State: Open: 38 ? Current 36.5

This may not actually be one of the biggest movers to the low side this week, but I felt it had to be included here because of how low the total is. It's not often you get a total in the 30's in college, and for one to pass through the very key number of 37, it's a move that should always be noted.

'Under' love here ? VegasInsider.com current has percentage of 80%+ on the low side ? is largely due to Rutgers involvement in the game as this team hasn't scored more than 17 points in any game for 10 straight weeks. The Scarlet Knights have managed just a single TD in three of their last five overall, and yet, they've got a 4-1 ATS run going during that time too. Big numbers and some solid defense from Rutgers is the reason behind that ATS run, and this week they are catching +27 as well.

Just as an exercise though, a Michigan State spread of -27 and a total of 36.5 suggests this game now has a tough time making sense. That side/total combo would suggest something like a 34-7 or 30-3 type game, while at open it was a 33-6 game that seemed like the fit for those numbers. That in itself suggests that this move may be a little unwarranted, and it's not like this number needs much help in sailing 'over'. One turnover by either side on in their own red zone gives the pace a huge jolt into going 'over' and getting into the 40's. Michigan State has also hung 40+ on Rutgers themselves sin three of the last four years, including a 40-7 win in 2017, and a 49-0 win two years ago.

That makes the 1-4 O/U run these two teams are on against one another a bit misleading, and with majority 'under' plays ones I typically like to be on the other side of, any current total under that key number of 37 would be one I could only look 'over' too.

Best Total Bet for Week 13

Pittsburgh vs Miami Over 47

Speaking of going against 'under's that have the majority on them, this Pittsburgh/Miami game currently shows about 60% of the action on the low side too. Remember, this was the matchup on Black Friday last year when Pitt shook up the CFB playoff picture by knocking off Miami outright as a 12-point home dog, and things just really haven't been the same since for the Hurricanes.

Miami's vaunted defense of 2017 with the ?Turnover Chain? hasn't been anywhere near the same in 2018, and offensively, this team has had issues scoring more often than not. However, the bulk of those offensive issues have come away from home (and the one home game in brutal conditions vs Duke), and that's not going to be the case here. Outside of that sloppy game vs the Blue Devils, Miami has put up an average of 35.5 points per home game against FBS competition this year, and Pittsburgh isn't shy about giving up plenty of big plays.

Finally, wouldn't it be a bit of poetic justice for Miami to return the favor from a year ago and put a beating on Pittsburgh a week before it's the Panthers heading into the ACC Championship game to try and knock off the juggernaut of Clemson. Now, that idea doesn't directly apply to this total play, but Miami understands that to beat Pittsburgh they are likely going to need to score somewhere in the 30's, because Pittsburgh's offense can hang up scores in a hurry; the Panthers have scored 34 or more in three of their last four games.

So with Miami on a 5-2 O/U run at home, 4-1 O/U after allowing fewer than 20 points, and Pitt on a 13-3-2 O/U run after allowing fewer than 20 points themselves, I'm going against the grain with this selection this week as I would not be surprised to see these two threaten to put up 60+ points combined as Miami looks for some measure of revenge.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's Best Bets
November 20, 2018
By BetDSI

College Football Best Bets ? Week 13

It's always a good feeling to know that I've been doing my part in keeping the office clean, as last week's plays were the fourth consecutive week of getting the broom out and sweeping the board. Both East Carolina and UCF got off to some sloppy starts in their respective games, but once those offenses got rolling and the defenses were able to make a few stops there was no looking back.

So while looking back on this 8-0 ATS run with best bets is nice, it doesn't mean anything relative to this week's plays. Hopefully that broom stays within reach this week though as it's these two plays that have made my board for this week:

Best Bet #1: Georgia Tech +17

At 7-4 SU, Georgia Tech has no concerns about being Bowl bound next month, as they enter the week on a four-game winning streak overall (six of seven) and are looking to finish the regular season on a high note. That won't be easy against a team as good as Georgia, but defending the option attack Georgia Tech employs is always tough with only a week to prepare. Add in the huge SEC Championship game with tremendous National Title implications against Alabama next week for the Georgia Bulldogs, and this becomes a real tough spot to be laying 17 points.

The fact that Georgia sees this Georgia Tech team each and every year does work in their favor in terms of prep, but being the home side in this rivalry has not been good in recent years. The visitors in this rivalry game have won each of the past five meetings SU, and Georgia Tech has been catching points in every single one of those games.

Not only are the visitors 5-0 SU, they are also 5-0 ATS, and after last year's 38-7 beatdown of Georgia Tech cause them to finish with a 5-6 SU record and miss out on a Bowl game, you know that the Yellow Jackets would love to do what they can to make Georgia's National Title aspirations become nothing more than a pipe dream.

That means that in the big picture we've got an option team, catching 17 points on the road, in a traditional spot that the road team has had success, against the #5 ranked team in the country who's championship hopes (conference and nationally) are ultimately on the line seven days from Saturday. Win or lose in this specific game, that's just a horrific spot to even consider laying 17 points with anyone in any year, and yet current betting percentages posted at VegasInsider.com have Georgia getting about 70% of the support.

Simply put, this is too many points to pass up in a spot like this. Georgia Tech's ability to sustain long 8+ minute drives limits the amount of possessions Georgia even gets at trying to win this game by 18+ points. And while the Bulldogs were in a similar position a year ago in that they knew they were headed to Atlanta for the SEC title, they didn't know who they would face at the time. That's not the case this year as they are clearly on a collision course with #1 Alabama, and with one eye on that game for a few weeks now, I believe this is the week it ends up showing up in their point spread W/L record.

Best Bet #2: SMU -2.5

The SMU Mustangs couldn't capitalize on their opportunity to stay in the race for a AAC West division crown with their home loss to Memphis last week, but the Mustangs still have plenty to play for on Saturday.

SMU enters this week at 5-6 SU and needing to beat a 2-9 Tulsa team to become Bowl eligible. Having ended their four-year Bowl drought last year with their 51-10 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl, getting back to postseason football for the second straight year would be another great building block for the direction of this program and I believe they don't waste this opportunity.

SMU may be 5-6 SU and more importantly 4-3 SU in AAC play, but they really didn't catch many breaks with their schedule this year. Two of those six defeats came on the road against Top 11 teams in UCF and Michigan, and they've dealt with all the top teams in conference play (UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati) along the way. They may not be the best AAC team in the conference this year, but had a bounce or two gone their way in either the Memphis or Cincinnati games, their ticket to a Bowl game might already be punched.

The Mustangs get one more crack at it this week against a bad Tulsa team that may be on the precipice of letting HC Phillip Montgomery go at season's end.

Since the start of 2017, Tulsa is just 3-16 SU overall, with their two wins this year coming against FCS school Central Arkansas, and Connecticut ? quite possibly the worst team in all of FBS football this season. The kids on this team likely know some major changes are coming and with nothing to play for other than personal pride for one another, I can't imagine Tulsa puts up much of a fight when things head south early.

Tulsa's lone ATS win in their last five games came in that victory over Connecticut, and they simply don't have a talented enough defense to get the necessary stops in a game like this. The line is just too short in favor of SMU, as concerns about a letdown after failing in their quest to become division champs are overblown.

A point spread like this is in the field of ?pick the SU winner and they'll cover the number,? and with SMU having a Bowl berth to play for and Tulsa just looking to move on to whatever 2019 brings, the Mustangs add another victory to their resume.

 

[Cnotes53]

Michigan at Ohio State
November 20, 2018
By ASA

2018 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 4-7 2-6 4-7 7-4
Indiana 5-6 2-6 5-6 7-4
Iowa 7-4 4-4 7-4 7-4
Maryland 5-6 3-5 6-5 6-5
Michigan 10-1 8-0 6-5 6-5
Michigan State 6-5 4-4 4-7 4-7
Minnesota 5-6 2-6 6-5 6-5
Nebraska 4-7 3-5 5-5-1 6-5
Northwestern 7-4 7-1 6-3-2 5-6
Ohio State 10-1 7-1 4-7 5-6
Penn State 8-3 5-3 6-5 7-4
Purdue 5-6 4-4 6-5 6-5
Rutgers 1-10 0-8 6-5 4-7
Wisconsin 7-4 5-3 3-8 6-5

Game scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 24

Michigan (-4, Total 56.5) at Ohio State - (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

This one is for all the marbles in the Big Ten East. The winner moves on to play Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game next Saturday. Both come into this game off less than stellar performances which was sort of expected given the magnitude of this one. It was evident early on that neither was fully focused on their opponents last week. Michigan was a 4 TD favorite at home vs Indiana and got by with a 31-20 win. Ohio State was a 2 TD favorite at Maryland and squeaked by 52-51 in OT.

Michigan

The Wolverines were flat as a pancake coming out of the gate. Indiana led 17-15 at half and had more total yards (385 yards) than anyone had all season versus this top notch Wolverine defense. The Hoosiers averaged 5.1 YPP in the game which may not seem like a big deal but it is just that facing a Michigan defense that has allowed just 4.0 YPP in conference play. The 11-point margin of victory was the 2nd lowest for Michigan this season (beat Northwestern by 3).

This was a one score game with Michigan leading 28-20 with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game. That shaky performance was against an Indiana team that has now lost 5 of their last 6 with their only win during that stretch coming by two points. Michigan had a chance to win this one big as they had 8 drives that pushed inside the Hoosier 20-yard line and it only scored just one TD and 6 field goals with those opportunities.

We?ll need to keep a close eye on Michigan?s DE Chase Winovich, the leader of the defense, as he left in the 3rd quarter with a shoulder injury and did not return. If he can?t play that would be a huge blow to this Michigan defense.

Ohio State

When it comes to Ohio State standards, the Buckeyes have been floundering for much of the year. They have covered the number only once in their last seven games. Last Saturday at Maryland, the Bucks opened as 17-point road favorites and the number quickly dropped to 14. The money move was 100% correct as OSU never led until overtime in their 52-51 win. Offensively the Buckeyes were great putting up nearly 700 total yards averaging 7.3 YPP in the process. They ran 94 offensive plays to just 62 for Maryland and still almost lost the game.

The defense remains a huge concern for this Ohio State team. They allowed the Terps to roll up 535 yards on 8.6 YPP. So while the Buckeyes outgained Maryland by over 150 yards, the Terps actually held a +1.3 YPP edge. Head coach Urban Meyer described his defense?s effort as ?alarming? and allowing 339 yards on the ground was just that. This defense has now allowed 450+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games. They now rank 8th in the Big Ten (conference play) in total defense allowing 403 YPG on 5.9 YPP. For comparison?s sake, OSU allowed 274 YPG on just 4.2 YPP in Big Ten play last season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Michigan goes into this game with a +190 point differential in league play. They also have a +223 YPG differential and they are outgaining their opponents by an average of 2.2 YPP (Big Ten play only). Ohio State enters this contest with a +86 point differential in conference play. The Bucks are outgaining their foes by an average of +115 YPG and +0.3 YPP. Again, those numbers are Big Ten games only so the opponents for 4 games are the exact same. OSU played crossover games against Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota while Michigan played Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Northwestern so Michigan actually has slightly strong strength of schedule numbers in conference play.

Michigan is currently favored by 4 points in this game and that is a rarity. The Wolverines have been a road favorite versus Ohio State only ONCE since 1994. That was a game in 2004 when the Wolverines entered the The Shoe as a five-point favorite and left with a 37-21 loss. The last time Michigan won at Ohio State was back in 2000. They have since lost 8 straight games at OSU.

Since 2000 there have been 17 meetings in this heated rivalry and Ohio State has won 15 of those games. This is the first time in 52 games that Ohio State has been tabbed an underdog. The last time this Buckeye team was an underdog was the 2014 National Championship game vs Oregon. Since 1980, OSU has been a home 'dog just 16 times and they are 11-5 ATS in those games. Seven of those sixteen games were against Michigan and the Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in those games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Auburn at Alabama
November 23, 2018
By Brian Edwards

The 2018 edition of the Iron Bowl will take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. As of Friday night, most books had Alabama (11-0 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) listed as a 24.5-point home favorite with a total 53. Gamblers had the chance to take Auburn on the money line for a 13/1 payout at The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. A few offshore spots like 5Dimes.eu had the Tigers with 14/1 odds to win outright.

The Crimson Tide, which covered the spread for first-half wagers in each of its first 10 games, failed to do so last week when a walk-off field goal knotted the score between Alabama and The Citadel at 10-10 going into intermission. For first-half bets vs. Auburn, most books have the Tide favored by 15.5 points.

Nick Saban?s bunch scored four TDs in the third quarter to put to bed any upset hopes for the Bulldogs, who nonetheless took the cash easily in a 50-17 loss as 53.5-point road underdogs. The 67 combined points elevated ?over? the 62.5-point total when Alabama?s Brian Robinson scored on a two-yard TD run with 4:25 remaining.

Tua Tagovailoa completed 18-of-22 passes for 340 yards and three TDs without an interception. The heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy also rushed four times for 37 yards and one TD. Damien Harris rushed for 83 yards on just seven attempts, while Najee Harris had 51 rushing yards on four carries.

Henry Ruggs III hauled in six receptions for 114 yards, while Jaylen Waddle caught six balls for 90 yards and two TDs. Jerry Jeudy had six grabs for 77 yards and Irv Smith Jr. turned his lone receptions into a 68-yard TD.

Alabama has won each of its 11 games by margins of 22 points or more. Saban?s team has home wins over Texas A&M (45-23), Missouri (39-10) and Mississippi State (24-0), in addition to road scalps at Ole Miss (62-7), at Arkansas (65-31), at Tennessee (58-21) and at LSU (29-0).

Tagovailoa has been incredible and if not for getting pulled so early and nearly every one of his team?s games, he?d have video-game stats. And his stats ? as is ? are nasty as hell. The true sophomore signal caller from Hawaii has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 2,865 yards with a 31/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Tagovailoa also has 185 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.5 yards-per-carry average.

Jeudy has been sensational with 51 receptions for 1,002 yards and 10 TDs. Waddle has 34 catches for 617 yards and five TDs, while Ruggs has 34 grabs for 613 yards and eight TDs. Smith has caught 32 balls for 587 yards and seven TDs.

Senior RB Damien Harris, who has been upgraded to ?probable? vs. Auburn after suffering a concussion vs. The Citadel, has run for a team-best 678 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.3 YPC. Najee Harris has 639 rushing yards, four TDs and a 7.0 YPC average, and Josh Jacobs has 384 rushing yards and nine TDs with a 4.7 YPC average.

Damien Harris has 16 catches for 166 yards and Jacobs has 11 catches for 118 yards and one TD.

Alabama is 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. Meanwhile, Auburn is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three road assignments.

Alabama is ranked third in the country in total offense and scoring with its 48.7 points-per-game average. The Crimson Tide is No. 7 in passing yards and No. 28 in rushing yards.

Damien Harris has been upgraded to ?probable? after sustaining a concussion vs. The Citadel. After missing back-to-back games with a sprained ankle, back-up QB Jalen Hurts returned last week and is listed as ?probable? vs. AU.

Alabama is ranked No. 7 in the nation in total defense, No. 10 in pass defense, No. 17 at defending the run and third in scoring ?D? (13.1 points per game). Senior DE Isaiah Buggs has 36 tackles, a team-high 9.5 sacks, three tackles for loss, six QB hurries, three passes broken up and a pair of forced fumbles. Sophomore DE Quinnen Williams has produced 55 tackles, nine TFL?s, six sacks, nine QB hurries and one PBU.

Auburn (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS, with the lone blemish coming in a 27-10 loss at Georgia two weeks ago. The Tigers bounced back in their home finale last week by stroking Liberty 53-0 as 29.5-point ?chalk.? Junior QB Jarrett Stidham completed 12-of-18 passes for 178 yards and two TDs without an interception.

Kam Martin ran for a team-best 116 yards on 17 carries. True freshman WR Seth Williams had five receptions for 109 yards and one TD, while Sal Cannella had a 22-yard TD grab.

Stidham has connected on 61.6 percent of his throws for 2,294 yards with a 12/4 TD-INT ratio. The former five-star recruit who played well in three starts for Baylor as a true freshman has three rushing scores as well.

JaTarvious Whitlow has run for a team-high 716 yards and four TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Martin has rushed for 388 yards and one TD while averaging 4.3 YPC.

Stidham?s favorite target is Ryan Davis, a third-team All-SEC selection in 2017. Davis has 60 receptions for 508 yards, while Williams has caught 24 balls for 479 yards and five TDs.

Auburn is ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense, limiting foes to only 16.6 PPG. Senior MLB Deshaun Davis is the leader of this unit, producing 102 tackles, 10.5 TFL?s, two sacks, three QB hurries and two PBU. Sophomore DE Nick Coe has enjoyed a breakout campaign, recording 27 tackles, seven sacks, 6.5 TFL?s, three QB hurries and two forced fumbles.

Auburn took its other three losses vs. LSU (22-21), at Mississippi State (23-9) and vs. Tennessee (30-24). The best wins for Gus Malzahn?s club have come vs. Washington (21-16 in Atlanta) vs. Texas A&M (28-24 in come-from-behind fashion). Auburn has been a road underdog 11 times during Malzahn?s six-year tenure, posting a 4-7 spread record. This is only the seventh time AU has been a double-digit underdog on Malzahn?s watch and it is the richest underdog number he?s seen. The Tigers are 3-3 ATS in six games as double-digit ?dogs with Malzahn.

When these teams met at Jordan-Hare Stadium on The Plains last season, Auburn knocked off previously-undefeated ?Bama by a 26-14 count as a six-point home underdog. The 40 combined points dropped ?under? the 47-point total for the third consecutive ?under? in this series.

Before the Tide?s loss at AU last November, it had won three straight games in this bitter rivalry since the kick-six TD win for AU in walk-off fashion back in 2013. Stidham connected on 21-of-28 passes for 237 yards, and Kerryon Johnson ran for 104 yards and one TD. Jeudy had a 36-yard TD catch in the losing effort, but Hurts threw for merely 112 yards.

The ?under? is 8-3 overall for Auburn, 3-0 in its road assignments. The Tigers have watched their games average combined scores of 45.5 PPG.

The ?over? is 7-4 overall for ?Bama, 5-2 in its home games. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 61.8 PPG.

CBS will provide television coverage.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 13 Upset Alerts
November 21, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

Week 13 Upset Alerts

It wasn't a pretty week for most of last week's underdogs as Wake Forest got their asses handed to them at home against Pittsburgh (34-13), but they were still much better than Illinois who lost 63-0 on their own field.

The saving grace for the 1-2 ATS week was my 20+ underdog yet again, as Texas State had no problem hanging around with a disinterested Troy team that was clearly looking ahead to this week's game against App State. Oddly enough, Texas State went out and fired their HC Everett Withers after that loss as it capped off another disappointing season for the program, but I'll take the ATS win and move on to this week.

Week 13 is also the final regular season week for the majority of the conferences in college football, and we've got big time rivalry games lining the card all holiday weekend long. But it isn't those big games I'm focusing on this week, as I'm just trying to end the season on a high note by finishing with a winning ATS record overall with these underdog selections.

It's been those big dogs that have carried the overall record so far (20-17 ATS), but going 12-1 ATS with those 20+ 'dogs is how I'm looking to finish, even if a few of you might throw up in your mouth when I get to that selection. For now it's about trying to start with some winners in the lower ranges, so let's get right to this week's plays for Saturday's action:

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 4-9 SU; 4-9 ATS

TCU +5 vs Oklahoma State

At 5-6 SU, the TCU Horned Frogs are looking to salvage what they can from a highly disappointing season by becoming Bowl eligible. There were much higher hopes for this TCU program in 2018, but they've just had so many issues scoring points this year that even with an above average defense, you aren't going to find too much success in the Big 12 if you can't score. The Horned Frogs haven't scored more than 27 points in any Big 12 game so far this year, so why I am backing them against an Oklahoma State team that's scored 30+ in all but two of their Big 12 games?

Well for one, Oklahoma State is bound to run out of gas sooner rather than later after they've been involved in some thrillers against the league's best teams in recent weeks. Oklahoma State has upset wins over Texas and West Virginia over the past month, and came a two-point conversion away from beating Oklahoma as well. As good as the Cowboys have been in those games, eventually dealing with that level of intensity and focus catches up to you, and at 6-5 SU and already headed to a Bowl game somewhere, where is the motivation going to be for Oklahoma State here?

Secondly, this is still a road game for OK State and it's not like they've been good away from home outside of their big rivalry game against Oklahoma. The Cowboys managed to beat Kansas by 20 on the road as -17 favorites, but they've also lost 31-12 at Kansas State and 35-31 at Baylor when laying 8 and 6 points respectively. In fact, it was after that first upset win they had over Texas that Oklahoma State went out and fell outright to Baylor the following week, and wouldn't you know it, this week's game at TCU echos the same scenario; on the road after a huge home upset win over a ranked team. For the first time since that Baylor game, it's OK State's opponent who has a decided edge in terms of motivation level this week.

It's that edge and desire to be involved in post-season football that should be able to push TCU over the edge this week and finish the regular season with a win. The underdog is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry the past three years, and I believe the Horned Frogs stretch that out to four straight on Saturday.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-11 SU; 5-7 ATS

BYU +11.5 over Utah

The Utah Utes enter the final week of the regular season having already completed conference play and knowing they'll be representing the Pac-12 South in the Conference Championship next week. That's quite an accomplishment for a team that lost their starting QB and RB for the year a few weeks ago, and accomplishing that goal also means that this week's in-state rivalry game with BYU really doesn't mean much to the Utes anymore. Sure, beating a close rival is always nice, but having been bit by the injury bug very hard this year, Utah knows they've still got bigger fish to fry this year and they do not want to go into a Conference Championship game down any more ?starters.?

That means that like with Oklahoma State, I'm not sure where the motivation comes from for the Utes this week as they accomplished their first main goal of the year (win the division), and are in that role of just playing out the string while trying to remain as healthy as possible. That's not a good spot for any team to have much success in, let alone win by double-digits.

Granted, BYU has little to play for as well at 6-5 SU, getting to that six-win mark with two straight wins in recent weeks, but those in-state bragging rights that appear to be meaningless for Utah this year, still mean quite a bit to the Cougars. BYU has lost in this game for seven straight years, the last six of which have been by a touchdown or less. That's something that's been weighing on this program all year long, and as an Independent team with no conference crown to concern themselves with, it's these type of rivalry games where they want to make sure they get the job done. They've already lost to the likes of Utah State and Boise State this year, so this game with Utah represents the Cougars last chance at getting one over on one of their biggest rivals.

Finally, BYU has started to play their best football late in the year, as a 4-1 ATS run coming into this week is hard to ignore. The last time they were listed as an underdog was three weeks ago when they were getting the exact same amount of points (+11.5) at Boise State and had a concerted comeback effort fall just short (21-16). That was too many points to give BYU then, and it's too many points to give BYU now, especially with a disinterested Utah team standing on the other side of the field.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 11-1 ATS

Connecticut +30 vs Temple

Writing about these large underdogs has brought me to a lot of bad/ugly teams this year, but I'm not sure it gets any uglier than supporting a Connecticut team that just might be the worst in the country. Yet, what has served me well in making these plays is finding those situations where it's more of a negative spot for the big favorites, and I'm not about to veer from that methodology here in the final week. Because for Temple, where is the motivation going to come from to hang it on Connecticut this week?

Sure, Temple is looking for some measure of revenge after losing to the Huskies (28-24) a year ago, but as 30-point favorites is the outright win really in question? I don't believe it is, the players, at least on Temple's side can't believe it is, and any sort of ?style? points for a big blowout win on the road aren't really applicable for Temple anymore. They saw UCF clinch the AAC East division last week, so it's all about staying healthy and preparing for a Bowl game now for the Owls.

For Connecticut, they've gotten used to losing all year long having lost eight in a row entering Saturday's season finale, and a 2-5-1 ATS run during that stretch doesn't exactly exude confidence in backing them either. But offensively this team has found something in six of the past eight quarters they've played ? scored 50 on SMU two weeks ago and 21 in the 1st half vs ECU last week ? and I do believe they find some relative offensive success this week for the full 60 minutes against the Owls. The Huskies last two home games were also losses by 12 and 5 points respectively, so it's not like they haven't shown signs of being tough on their own field.

Finally, we can't underestimate how important Temple's run-heavy style of offense is actually a detriment to them trying to cover a big number like this. Sure, there may be a big run or two that leads to quick points, but that may not be the case, and the longer drives are the fewer possessions Temple will have to cover 30 points. Furthermore, once that big lead is established, Temple will be content in running it right into the line over and over again, getting their 3+ yards per rush and bleeding down the clock as much as possible. And all of that doesn't even take into account the potential for Connecticut to have plenty of success running the ball (average 205.2 yards rushing/game) against a Temple defense that's given up 197.4 yards/game on the ground this year.

So, as ugly as it appears on the surface to be backing a very bad team like Connecticut this week, there is some sound strategic reasoning behind backing the Huskies outside of it potentially being just too many points. Temple HC won't be looking to embarrass the Huskies if he can help it, and with VegasInsider.com's betting percentages already showing nearly all the support (85%+) on Temple this week, you can rest assured that I'll be one of the few bettors out there hoping Connecticut can put a full 60 minutes of football together and keep it well within this number.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, November 24

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 4) at MIAMI (6 - 5) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEMPLE (7 - 4) at CONNECTICUT (1 - 10) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
TEMPLE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KENTUCKY (8 - 3) at LOUISVILLE (2 - 9) - 11/24/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
KENTUCKY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
LOUISVILLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
LOUISVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses this season.
LOUISVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S CAROLINA (6 - 4) at CLEMSON (11 - 0) - 11/24/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 2-0 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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RUTGERS (1 - 10) at MICHIGAN ST (6 - 5) - 11/24/2018, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GA SOUTHERN (8 - 3) at GEORGIA ST (2 - 9) - 11/24/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
GEORGIA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
GEORGIA ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA ST is 2-0 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MARSHALL (7 - 3) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (8 - 3) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SYRACUSE (8 - 3) at BOSTON COLLEGE (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN (10 - 1) at OHIO ST (10 - 1) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
OHIO ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
OHIO ST is 188-146 ATS (+27.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 188-146 ATS (+27.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 170-132 ATS (+24.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ILLINOIS (4 - 7) at NORTHWESTERN (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 131-173 ATS (-59.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 131-173 ATS (-59.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 93-123 ATS (-42.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 104-135 ATS (-44.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA TECH (7 - 4) at GEORGIA (10 - 1) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
GEORGIA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WAKE FOREST (5 - 6) at DUKE (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 1-1 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (5 - 6) at WISCONSIN (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NC STATE (7 - 3) at N CAROLINA (2 - 8) - 11/24/2018, 12:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 2-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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W KENTUCKY (2 - 9) at LOUISIANA TECH (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISIANA TECH is 2-1 against the spread versus W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
LOUISIANA TECH is 2-1 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OLD DOMINION (4 - 7) at RICE (1 - 11) - 11/24/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 63-34 ATS (+25.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
RICE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
RICE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
RICE is 1-0 against the spread versus OLD DOMINION over the last 3 seasons
OLD DOMINION is 1-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SOUTHERN MISS (5 - 5) at UTEP (1 - 10) - 11/24/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 straight up against UTEP over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 8) at LIBERTY (4 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 44-73 ATS (-36.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus LIBERTY over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-0 straight up against LIBERTY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (10 - 1) at BOISE ST (9 - 2) - 11/24/2018, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 146-106 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 146-106 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 91-62 ATS (+22.8 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 82-51 ATS (+25.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
UTAH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (6 - 5) at UTAH (8 - 3) - 11/24/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 63-36 ATS (+23.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
UTAH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BYU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons.
BYU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 2-0 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TROY (9 - 2) at APPALACHIAN ST (8 - 2) - 11/24/2018, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
APPALACHIAN ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
APPALACHIAN ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
TROY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TROY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-0 against the spread versus APPALACHIAN ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 1-0 straight up against APPALACHIAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WYOMING (5 - 6) at NEW MEXICO (3 - 8) - 11/24/2018, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UAB (9 - 2) at MIDDLE TENN ST (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
UAB is 1-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
UAB is 1-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO (5 - 6) at CALIFORNIA (6 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 1-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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STANFORD (6 - 4) at UCLA (3 - 8) - 11/24/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
STANFORD is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
STANFORD is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
STANFORD is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
STANFORD is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 2-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 2-0 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 6) at VANDERBILT (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
VANDERBILT is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA ST (6 - 5) at TCU (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLORIDA (8 - 3) at FLORIDA ST (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
FLORIDA ST is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MARYLAND (5 - 6) at PENN ST (8 - 3) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARYLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MARYLAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
PENN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS TECH (5 - 6) at BAYLOR (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 127-90 ATS (+28.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN JOSE ST (1 - 10) at FRESNO ST (9 - 2) - 11/24/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FRESNO ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 1-1 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS ST (5 - 6) at IOWA ST (6 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 126-92 ATS (+24.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 156-121 ATS (+22.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 124-90 ATS (+25.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LSU (9 - 2) at TEXAS A&M (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PURDUE (5 - 6) at INDIANA (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
INDIANA is 81-111 ATS (-41.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
INDIANA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 1-1 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NAVY (3 - 8) at TULANE (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 171-131 ATS (+26.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 171-131 ATS (+26.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 97-60 ATS (+31.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 82-45 ATS (+32.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 82-45 ATS (+32.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 155-118 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 110-76 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
NAVY is 38-19 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
TULANE is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAFAYETTE (6 - 5) at LA MONROE (6 - 5) - 11/24/2018, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 1-1 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SMU (5 - 6) at TULSA (2 - 9) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TULSA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-1 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (4 - 7) at FLA ATLANTIC (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARKANSAS ST (7 - 4) at TEXAS ST (3 - 8) - 11/24/2018, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NORTH TEXAS (8 - 3) at UTSA (3 - 8) - 11/24/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTSA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
UTSA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTSA is 1-1 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
UTSA is 1-1 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NOTRE DAME (11 - 0) at USC (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
USC is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
USC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
USC is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
USC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-1 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AUBURN (7 - 4) at ALABAMA (11 - 0) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 2-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEVADA (7 - 4) at UNLV (3 - 8) - 11/24/2018, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 90-129 ATS (-51.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
UNLV is 59-88 ATS (-37.8 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 2-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAWAII (7 - 5) at SAN DIEGO ST (7 - 4) - 11/24/2018, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA ST (6 - 5) at ARIZONA (5 - 6) - 11/24/2018, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 116-149 ATS (-47.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ARIZONA is 88-130 ATS (-55.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Best 13 games, Friday/Saturday
Iowa beat Illinois 63-0 LW, snapping 3-game skid; Hawkeyes are 3-1 as home faves this year, after being 12-22-1 in that role from 2012-17. All seven Iowa wins this season are by 10+ points. Nebraska won four of its last five games after an 0-6 start; Cornhuskers had scored 31+ points five games in row, before stifling Michigan State 9-6 LW- they?re 6-2 in last eight games as road dogs. Iowa won last three games with Nebraska, winning last two years by combined score of 96-24; Six of last eight games went over total; three of last four Nebraska games stayed under.

Virginia lost two of last three games after a 6-2 start; Cavaliers allowed 242.3 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Over last seven years, Virginia is just 1-1 as a road favorite. Virginia Tech won its last 14 games with Virginia, which lost its nine visits to Blacksburg- they lost 52-10 in last visit here two years ago. Tech lost its last four games, giving up 42.5 ppg; three of those games were at home. Hokies are 0-3 as home underdogs this year; over last decade, they?re 4-7 in that role. Three of last four Virginia games went over the total.

Oklahoma is 6-0 vs West Virginia in Big X play, winning three visits here by 28-1-12 points; average total in those six games is 73.7. Sooners won their last five games, scoring 48+ points in all five games; under Riley, Oklahoma is 2-5 as road favorites, 1-3 this year. Sooners are 5-3 in last eight games where spread was 3 or fewer points. West Virginia won three of last four games, scoring 41+ points in all four; over last decade, Mountaineers are 4-6 as home underdogs. Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Oklahoma games, 4-0 in WVU?s last four games.

Washington State won its last seven games since a 39-36 loss at USC; Coogs are 9-1 vs spread this year. Wazzu is 13-7 in its last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-1 this year. Washington won last five Apple Cups, winning 45-17/31-13 in last two visits to Pullman. Huskies won three of last four games; they lost their last two road games by total of five points. Under Petersen, Washington is 4-3 as road underdogs; last time they were a road dog was 2015. Under is 6-3 in last nine Washington games, 3-2 in Coogs? last five games.

Ohio State won its last three games but allowed 31+ points in three of last four games; Buckeyes are home underdog for first time in seven years- over last 11 years, they?re 2-1 as home dogs. Michigan won its last ten games since an opening loss to Notre Dame;; Wolverines are 5-2 as a home favorite this season. OSU won its last six games with Michigan; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Wolverines lost their last eight visits to Columbus (3-5 vs spread). Under is 5-3 in last eight OSU games, 3-1 in last four Michigan games.

Utah State won its last ten games since a 38-31 loss at Michigan State in their opener; Aggies escaped Colorado State 29-24 LW, when Rams? TD on a Hail Mary was nullified by a penalty. Under Wells, USU is 8-12 as road underdogs, 1-0 this year. Boise State won its last six games, holding last three foes under 20 points. Broncos are 6-17 in last 23 games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year. Boise won four of last five games with USU; Aggies lost 21-10/50-19 in last two games on the blue turf. Over is 7-2-1 in Utah State games; last three Boise games stayed under.

Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 Tennessee-Vanderbilt games; Vandy won four of last six meetings, winning 42-24/45-34 last two years. Winner of this game becomes bowl eligible. Tennessee lost two of its three road games but covered all three; they were held under 300 TY in three of last five games. Vanderbilt scored 31+ points in its five wins; they?re 0-6 scoring less than 31. Under Mason, Commodores are 4-10 as home favorites, 0-2 this season. Three of last four games for both teams stayed under the total.

TCU lost four of its last six games; they scored total of 40 points in last three games. Over last 11 years, Horned Frogs are 3-5 as home underdogs, 1-1 this year. Oklahoma State lost four of last six games; they scored 31+ points in last four games. Cowboys are 1-3 on road this year, allowing 35.5 ppg; they?re 5-3 in last eight games as road favorites, 1-2 this year. OSU/TCU split their last four meetings, with underdogs winning last three SU. Three of last four TCU games stayed under total; over is 5-2 in OSU?s last seven. TCU is bowl eligible if they win this game.

Florida State lost three of last four games, needs win here to be bowl eligible; FSU had life/death struggle with BC last week, while Florida had a glorified scrimmage in its easy win over Idaho. Seminoles are 4-2 SU at home- over last 11 years, FSU is 1-5 vs spread as home underdogs. Florida won seven of its last nine games; they?re 6-3 in last nine games as road favorites, 2-0 this year. FSU won its last five games with Florida, winning 31-13/24-19 in last two played here. Over is 6-2 in last eight FSU games, 4-1-1 in Gators? last six games.

LSU was held to 19-0 points in their two losses; they allowed less than 20 points in their last five wins. Tigers won two of three true road games this year- under Orgeron, they?re 3-0 vs spread as road underdogs. Texas A&M won five of its last seven games, scoring 41-38 points in last couple games. Aggies ran ball for 518 yards last two weeks- they?re 4-1 vs spread as home favorites this year. LSU won its last six games with A&M, winning last three visits here, by 15-6-5 points. Three of last four LSU games, five of Aggies? last seven games stayed under the total.

Indiana won four of last five games with Purdue, winning last three games played here, by 2-7-20 points. Hoosiers lost five of their last six games after a 4-1 start; they?re 3-3 SU at home, are 3-6 in last nine games as a home underdog, 1-2 this year. Purdue lost three of last four games, giving up 41-47 points the last two games; Boilermakers are 2-2 as road favorites this year, after being road favorite only one time in previous five seasons. Five of last six Indiana games went over; Winner of this matchup between 5-6 teams becomes bowl eligible.

Home side won last five Notre Dame-USC games; favorites covered last six. Irish lost last two visits to LA, 45-27/49-14. Notre Dame is 11-0, clinches spot in national playoff with win here; they covered six of last eight games, are 3-0 on road this season, with all three wins by 10+ points. Irish are 6-2 in last eight games as a road favorite. USC is 5-6, needs upset win here to go to a bowl; Trojans lost last two games by 1-7 points; they?re a home underdog for first time in five years. Over is 6-2 in last eight ND games.

Arizona State ran ball for 250+ yards in five of its six wins; they?re 1-5 running for less than 250. Arizona held its last four foes under 160 YR. Wildcats won two of last three games, need win to go to a bowl. Home side won last five Arizona-ASU games; Sun Devils lost their last two visits to Tucson, 51-35/42-35. Arizona State won three of its last four games; three of those four games were decided by 3 or fewer points. Sun Devils are 1-4 SU on road; they?re 1-3 in last four games as road favorites. Four of last six ASU games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in Arizona?s last four.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday, November 24

Florida @ Florida State
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing Florida State

Florida State
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida State's last 10 games when playing at home against Florida

Georgia Tech @ Georgia
Georgia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia Tech's last 7 games on the road
Georgia Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Georgia
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Georgia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

Baylor @ Texas Tech
Baylor
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor's last 8 games when playing Texas Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baylor's last 5 games

Texas Tech
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 8 games when playing Baylor
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games

Syracuse @ Boston College
Syracuse
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 6 games when playing Boston College
Syracuse is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Boston College
Boston College is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston College's last 6 games

Michigan @ Ohio State
Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan's last 5 games when playing Ohio State
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Ohio State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan

Marshall @ Florida International
Marshall
Marshall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Marshall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Florida International
Florida International is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games

Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Western Kentucky's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 6 games

Louisiana Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisiana Tech's last 8 games
Louisiana Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Navy @ Tulane
Navy
Navy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 6 games when playing Tulane

Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulane's last 7 games at home

North Carolina State @ North Carolina
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against North Carolina
North Carolina State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against North Carolina

North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games when playing North Carolina State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games

Wake Forest @ Duke
Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Duke
Wake Forest is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Duke
Duke is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Wake Forest
Duke is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Wake Forest

Oklahoma State @ Texas Christian
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games

Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Christian's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State

Purdue @ Indiana
Purdue
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Purdue's last 10 games on the road
Purdue is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games on the road

Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games at home

Old Dominion @ Rice
Old Dominion
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Old Dominion's last 9 games

Rice
Rice is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Rice's last 14 games at home

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Georgia State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New Mexico State @ Liberty
New Mexico State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Mexico State's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Mexico State's last 10 games

Liberty
Liberty is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Liberty's last 7 games

Troy @ Appalachian State
Troy
Troy is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Troy is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road

Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Appalachian State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

Wyoming @ New Mexico
Wyoming
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wyoming's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wyoming's last 6 games

New Mexico
New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wyoming
New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Wyoming

Stanford @ California-Los Angeles
Stanford
Stanford is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing California-Los Angeles
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing California-Los Angeles

California-Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of California-Los Angeles's last 8 games when playing at home against Stanford
California-Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

Alabama-Birmingham @ Middle Tennessee
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama-Birmingham is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 10 games on the road

Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Middle Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Southern Miss @ Texas El Paso
Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 6 games when playing Texas El Paso
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 7 games

Texas El Paso
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas El Paso's last 6 games when playing Southern Miss
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas El Paso's last 5 games

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Louisiana-Monroe

Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 5 games

Auburn @ Alabama
Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Auburn's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Auburn's last 9 games when playing on the road against Alabama

Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Arizona State @ Arizona
Arizona State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona State's last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Arizona State
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Miami-FL
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games on the road

Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 5 games
Miami-FL is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

Northwestern @ Illinois
Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

Illinois
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Illinois's last 8 games when playing Northwestern

Maryland @ Penn State
Maryland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Maryland's last 11 games on the road
Maryland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

Penn State
Penn State is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games at home
Penn State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Wisconsin
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Minnesota's last 18 games when playing Wisconsin

Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Temple @ Connecticut
Temple
Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Connecticut
Temple is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road

Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Connecticut's last 9 games when playing Temple
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games at home

Southern Methodist @ Tulsa
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Southern Methodist's last 10 games when playing Tulsa

Tulsa
Tulsa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Southern Methodist
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tulsa's last 10 games

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
Tennessee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Rutgers @ Michigan State
Rutgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Rutgers's last 6 games on the road
Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Michigan State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Rutgers

Arkansas State @ Texas State
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Texas State
Texas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas State's last 6 games

Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic
Charlotte
Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Charlotte is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 7 games at home

Kentucky @ Louisville
Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 5 games on the road
Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisville

Louisville
Louisville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kentucky
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisville's last 7 games

South Carolina @ Clemson
South Carolina
South Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Carolina's last 8 games on the road

Clemson
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Colorado @ California
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing California

California
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of California's last 5 games when playing Colorado

Kansas State @ Iowa State
Kansas State
Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Iowa State
Kansas State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Iowa State

Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas State

North Texas @ Texas-San Antonio
North Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Texas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Texas's last 5 games when playing Texas-San Antonio

Texas-San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas-San Antonio's last 5 games when playing North Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas-San Antonio's last 6 games

San Jose State @ Fresno State
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games on the road
San Jose State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Fresno State
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

Louisiana State @ Texas A&M
Louisiana State
Louisiana State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M
Louisiana State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M

Texas A&M
Texas A&M is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Texas A&M is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Notre Dame @ Southern California
Notre Dame
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 5 games on the road
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Southern California
Southern California is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
Southern California is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Notre Dame

Nevada @ Nevada-Las Vegas
Nevada
Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Nevada-Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Nevada's last 7 games

Nevada-Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing at home against Nevada
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Nevada

Brigham Young @ Utah
Brigham Young
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 5 games on the road
Brigham Young is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brigham Young
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Brigham Young

Utah State @ Boise State
Utah State
Utah State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Utah State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games

Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah State

Hawaii @ San Diego State
Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games when playing San Diego State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games on the road

San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hawaii
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii

 

[Cnotes53]

College Football's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Washington St. 10-1 ATS
2. Utah St. 9-2 ATS
3. Appalachian St. 8-2 ATS
t4. 7 teams tied at 8-3 ATS (Buffalo, Fresno St., UAB, Florida Int., Georgia Southern, Texas A&M, Virginia)


College Football's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

130. Louisville 1-10 ATS
t128. Washington 2-9 ATS
t128. New Mexico St. 2-9 ATS
t126. Georgia St. 2-8-1 ATS
t126. Connecticut 2-8-1 ATS
t117. 9 teams tied at 3-8 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday, Nov. 24

PITT at MIAMI-FLA...Canes 4-11 vs. spread last 15 since late 2017. Pitt has covered last six TY and 7-2 vs. number last 9 away.
Pitt, based on recent trends.


TEMPLE at UCONN...Owls 7-2 vs. line last 9 TY, 14-6 last 20 on board. Edsall 2-8-1 vs. line TY but did beat Owls LY.
Temple, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE...Cards 1-10 vs. line TY, Cats however no covers last 11 as chalk!
Slight to Kentucky, based on recent trends.


SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON...Dabo has won and covered six in a row TY and has romped past Muschamp last two. Though Gamecocks have covered 10 of last 11 away from Williams-Brice!
Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


RUTGERS at MICHIGAN STATE...Ugh! ?Gers on surprising 4-game late-season cover streak. Though Dantonio has buried Rutgers each of past four years. Spartans 1-6 vs. spread last seven at East Lansing.
Slight to Michigan State, based on series trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...State no covers 9 of last 10 TY. Southern 10-4 vs. line last 14 since late 2017.
Southern, based on recent trends.


MARSHALL at FIU...Butch Davis 13-5 vs. line last 18 reg season. MU 8-3 vs. line away since LY. FIU has buried Herd last two years.
FIU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at BOSTON COLLEGE...Eagles on 16-4 reg season spread run. Cuse Dino 9-3 last 12 as dog.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE...Urban 6-0 SU vs. Michigan but 1-4 vs. line last 5, and note road team has covered last four in series.
Michigan, based on series trends.


ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN...Lovie 1-5 vs. line last six TY and no covers last three away, 3-7 last ten vs. line as Big Ten visitor. Cats have won and covered big last three meetings. But note that underdogs are 10-0-1 vs. line in Cat games TY (NU 0-4 as chalk!).
Slight to Northwestern, based on recent series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA...Major road series, a bit more pronounced when Bulldogs are visitor. But GT has won outright as dog last two at Athens, 5-1-1 last seven and 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten at Sanford Stadium. Paul Johnson 13-7 last 20 as dog.
Georgia Tech, based on team and series trends.


WAKE FOREST at DUKE...Wake only 3-8 vs. line TY but has covered last two on road. Clawson 2-6 as dog TY but entered season on 10-2-1 dog run. Road team has covered last 3 meetings. Cutcliffe no covers last 4 at home TY.
Wake Forest, based on team and series trends.


MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN...Axe! Slab of Bacon! Badgers 3-8 vs. line this season, 1-5 vs. line at Camp Randall. Though Fleck just 1-6-1 vs. points as Big Ten visitor since LY.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on series trends.


NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...NCS only 2-4 vs. line last six TY. Fedora 5-3 as dog TY, 8-3 last 11 in role. Road team however has covered last five in series.
Slight to NC State, based on series trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at LA TECH...WKU 1-4-1 vs. line last six TY. Skip has won and covered last 2 meetings in reg season.
La Tech, based on team trends.


ODU at RICE...ODU 1-5 last six as chalk. Rice 4-1 vs. line last four TY though only 1-4 vs. line at home.
Slight to Rice, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP...Jay Hopson 2-4 as road chalk with USM.
Slight to UTEP, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at LIBERTY...Rematch of 49-41 Ag win on Oct. 6! But NMSU 2-9 vs. spread TY and 1-4 vs. line away.
Liberty, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE...Utags 8-2-1 vs. spread TY. Boise just 7-18 vs. points at home since late 2014.
Utah State, based on recent trends.


BYU at UTAH...Sitake on 11-5 spread uptick since late LY. Cougs 5-1 last six as dog. Road team has covered last three in series, dog team has covered last four. Utes, however, on 9-3 spread run at Salt Lake.
Slight to BYU, based on series trends.


TROY at APP STATE...Troy on 8-2 spread run TY! App, however, 11-2-1 last 14 on board. Trojans 9-3 as dog since 2014.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


WYOMING at NEW MEXICO...Davie had won 3 and covered 4 straight vs. Wyo prior to LY. Lobos 3-9 vs. points last 12 at home and on 4-12 spread skid. Bohl 3-1 vs. line L4 TY and 6-4 vs. spread last 10 away from Laramie.
Wyoming, based on team trends.


UAB at MTSU...Blazers 15-5-1 last 21 vs. spread. UAB 12-6 L18 as dog. MTSU 5-1 vs. line last six at home.
Slight to UAB, based on team trends.


COLORADO at CAL...Buffs no wins or covers last six TY. Bears on 4-game cover streak TY after dropping previous 5 vs. line.
Cal, based on recent trends.


STANFORD at UCLA...Tree has brutalized UCLA with ten straight series wins and covers in 9 of those. Bruins 7-18 vs. spread at Rose Bowl since late 2014.
Stanford, based on series trends.


TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT...Vandy has turned around this series, winning 4 and covering 5 of last 6 meetings. Though Vols are 3-0 vs. line on SEC road for Pruitt TY and Dores 1-6 L7 as SEC host.
Slight to Tennessee, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU...Frogs 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY. Cowboys 5-2 vs. points last seven away from Stillwater.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE...Taggart 4-7 vs. line TY, though Noles have won and covered last three in series.
Slight to Florida, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at PENN STATE...James Franklin has routed Terps last 2 years, and Nittany 13-5 vs. spread last 18 at Happy Valley. Terps 1-6 vs. spread last seven on Big Ten road.
Penn State, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH vs. BAYLOR (at Arlington)...TT has won and covered last two meetings and 3-1 vs. line last four in series.
Texas Tech, based on series trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at FRESNO STATE...Tedford 18-5-2 vs. line since arriving at Fresno LY. Spartans 4-1 vs. line away TY.
Slight to Fresno State, based on team trends.


KANSAS STATE at IOWA STATE... Bill Snyder has covered 5 of last 6 as dog TY and now 32-16 in role since 2011. ISU however has covered last four meetings and on 22-10-1 spread run.
Slight to Iowa State, based on recent and series trends.


LSU at TEXAS A&M...Tigers have owned this series since A&M joined SEC, winning and covering all six meetings. If Orgeron a dog here note covers in last four in role on road. Jimbo 6-0 vs. spread at Kyle Field TY.
Slight to LSU, based on series trends.


PURDUE at INDIANA...Old Oaken Bucket! Purdue has covered 5 of last 7 Buckets. Brohm 7-4 vs. spread away from Ross-Ade.
Purdue, based on team trends.


NAVY at TULANE... Mids only 4-7 vs. line TY but 2-1 as dog away from Annapolis, now 19-10 as visiting dog since 2009. Road team has covered last 3 in series.
Navy, based on team and series trends.


ULL at ULM...Cajuns on 6-2 spread run. Visiting team 7-0-1 vs. points last 8 meetings!
ULL, based on team trends.


SMU at TULSA...Tulsa only 7-13 last 20 vs. spread. Road team has covered last four in series.
SMU, based on team and series trends.


CHARLOTTE at FAU... FAU on 2-0-1 spread run. Though Kiffin just 3-7-1 vs. points TY. 49ers were one of only two C-USA teams to cover vs. FAU LY. Owls 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 at Boca Raton vs. FBS.
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at TEXAS STATE...ASU has covered 4 of last 5 TY, but TSU 5-1 vs. line L6. Bobcats have covered last 2 meetings.
Texas State, based on series trends.


NORTH TEXAS at UTSA...Runners 4-15 spread skid. UNT no covers last 4 TY. Home team has covered last 4 in series.
Slight to UTSA, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at USC...Helton 3-8 vs. line TY, 7-19 vs. points since late 2016. Home team has won and covered last five meetings, but Helton 1-8 last nine as dog.
Notre Dame, based on recent trends.


AUBURN vs. ALABAMA...Iron Bowl! Tigers have not covered at Tuscaloosa in three tries since Cam beat Saban in 2010. After Malzahn 5-0 as dog in 2013 debut, he?s just 6-10 as dog since.
Alabama, based on team trends.


NEVADA at UNLV...Fremont Cannon! Pack is 11-2 SU last 13 meetings and has won six straight at Sam Boyd. Sanchez 2-6 vs. line last 8 at home vs. FBS.
Nevada, based on team and series trends.


HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rocky Long 0-5 as home chalk TY, though Aztecs have won and covered last six in series. UH on 2-7-1 spread skid.
Slight to San Diego State, based on series trends.


ARIZONA STATE at ARIZONA...Territorial Cup! Cats have covered 4 of last 5 at Tucson TY. Home team has covered last 5.
Slight to Arizona, based on series trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Trouble with the Triple Option?

The Georgia Bulldogs still have an outside shot at reaching the College Football Playoff, but to remain in the hunt, they'll need a strong showing in their regular-season finale Saturday against visiting Georgia Tech. The problem is, the Georgia defensive line is dealing with some key absences, with defensive end David Marshall and tackle Daquan Hawkins-Muckle both banged up and linebacker Monty Rice also not at full strength. The Yellow Jackets lead the nation by a wide margin in rushing yards per game (353.7), and their triple option attack could give Georgia fits in their quest for a one-sided victory.

This rivalry has produced some odd trends; most notably, the road team has gone a blistering 17-4-1 ATS in the past 22 meetings. And with the Yellow Jackets expected to move the ball with some success against the Bulldogs' banged-up D-line, we like the road team to cover yet again at +17.5.


No Long Drives for BC?

Oddsmakers have high hopes for the Boston College offense as the Eagles host the Syracuse Orange on Saturday in the final regular season game for both teams. But if BC hopes to close out the campaign with a victory, it will need to overcome a sizeable mismatch when it comes to third-down play. The Eagles have converted just 33.7 percent of their third-down opportunities ? ranking them 115th in the country ? and won't get any breaks against a stout Syracuse defense that comes in boasting the fifth-best third-down conversion rate allowed at 27.4 percent.

If the Orange can force BC into third downs with regularity, it should be a good bet to keep the hosts below their 34.5-point total. The Eagles haven't surpassed 31 points in any of their previous four games.


Temple on a TD Tear

The Temple Owls share the Division I lead in defensive touchdowns scored ? and are in great position to finish alone at the top as they finish their regular season Saturday against woeful Connecticut. The Owls come into the weekend having scored six defensive TDs, tied with Utah State for the most in the nation. And that could be bad news for a Huskies team that is already all but assured of allowing the most points and yards per game in the country. And it gets worse: UConn has an ugly minus-14 turnover differential on the season (10 turnovers gained, 24 turnovers lost), even with Louisville for the worst in Division I.

Bettors should strongly consider taking the defensive touchdown prop in this one, with Temple having scored on 25 percent of their 24 total turnovers.
Michigan vs Ohio State college football betting picks and predictions: So much at stake in this Big Ten rivalry


UTSA or North Texas For Three

Field goals aren't a popular scoring option in college football, but kicker fans should pay close attention to Saturday's encounter between North Texas and host Texas-San Antonio. The Mean Green have booted 18 field goals so far this season, the third-highest FG tally of any team ranked in the top 20 in points per game. And while the Roadrunners have the dubious distinction of being the lowest-scoring team in all of Division I at just 13.5 points per game, they still have 14 field goals in 2018 ? one shy of their total number of touchdowns scored through their first 11 games.

The field goal as the game's first scoring play is worth +150, with a North Texas field goal priced at +260 and UTSA kicking off the scoring with a three-point play listed at +600.


All Quiet on QB Front for Rainbow Warriors

Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich isn't planning to announce his starting quarterback for Saturday's Mountain West tilt with San Diego State, until just prior to game time.

The choice between sophomore Cole McDonald and freshman Chevan Cordeiro could be a difficult one; McDonald was sensational earlier in the season but has thrown for three touchdowns and five interceptions over his past three games. Cordeiro threw for 153 yards and three TDs in relief of an ineffective McDonald last week, but if he appears in the Warriors' final two games, he'll no longer be eligible for a redshirt.

With Hawaii having already secured a bowl berth, it's likely that McDonald will play in order to allow Cordeiro an extra year of eligibility. And given how McDonald has fared of late, that decision would make the host Aztecs a prime play at -17.5, while adding intrigue to the Under on Hawaii's team total of 17.5.


TROY THE ULTIMATE ROAD WARRIOR

Historical trends are often just noise ? but it's worth considering Troy's incredible road dominance going into the Trojans' final regular-season game of 2018 Saturday against host Appalachian State. Troy has reeled off wins in 10 of its previous 11 games away from Veterans Memorial Stadium, and is an equally impressive 9-1 ATS in its past 10 road contests. Troy has also fared well as a double-digit underdog, having gone 14-6 ATS in its past 20 games in this scenario ? including back-to-back outright victories over Nebraska last September (at +10) and LSU in 2017 (at +20.5).

With the winner advancing to the Sun Belt Conference championship game, expect it to be a tighter affair than oddsmakers are expecting. We like Troy +10.5 as one of the top underdog spread plays on this week's schedule.


TEXAS TECH'S TUMULTUOUS QB SITUATION

It isn't clear who will be under center for the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Saturday's season finale against Baylor at AT&T Stadium. Sophomore starter Jett Duffey suffered a knee injury in last weekend's loss to Kansas State and is considered questionable, with head coach Kliff Kingsbury admitting that Duffey "had some other issues that occurred during the game." Regular starter Alan Bowman, who has missed several games after suffering a collapsed lung, might see action in the finale whether Duffey is able to return or not. No. 3 option McLane Carter will also likely see the field at some point.

With neither Duffey nor Bowman expected to be 100 percent and Carter having already played his way off the field, it might seem difficult to trust the Red Raiders favored by six points ? until you remember that they're facing a Bears team that has scored 17 or fewer points in four of its past five games. Take Texas Tech to cover while holding Baylor below its 28.5-point team total.


JUSTIN JEFFERSON QUESTIONABLE

LSU head coach Ed Orgeron is expecting to have his No. 1 receiver in the lineup for Saturday's pivotal showdown with Texas A&M. Jefferson wasn't seen at practice Tuesday due to an undisclosed issue, but Orgeron is confident the sophomore will suit up this weekend despite being listed as questionable. Jefferson has been one of the Tigers' most consistent offensive options on the season, hauling in 45 passes for 725 yards and three touchdowns; he's also one of only three players to record at least 80 receiving yards against the Alabama Crimson Tide this season.

The LSU offense needs Jefferson as a three-point underdog against the Aggies. If he plays, we like the Tigers to not only cover, but to win outright (+135) against a Texas A&M team ranked outside the top 100 in passing yards allowed per game (261.0).


Uncertainty in Syracuse

The Syracuse Orange don't know who will be under center for Saturday's pivotal ACC showdown with host Boston College. Starting quarterback Eric Dungey left last weekend's loss to Notre Dame in the early going with a back injury, and backup Tommy DeVito was completely negated by the Irish defense in a 36-3 defeat. Both players are listed atop the early-week Orange depth chart, with Dungey's practice participation likely the determining factor in whether he will suit up. Dungey has had a sensational season with Syracuse, throwing for 14 TDs and adding 12 more on the ground.

Bettors should monitor this line closely, and pounce on the visitors receiving more than a touchdown if Dungey is ruled fit to participate Saturday. Boston College is a strong cover play at -7.5 if Dungey can't go.

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SYR at BC 12:00 PM
BC -6.0
U 58.5

WKU at LT 12:00 PM
WKU +10.5
O 49.0

NAVY at TULN 12:00 PM
NAVY +6.0

MRSH at FIU 12:00 PM
FIU +3.5

PUR at IND 12:00 PM
IND +3.0
U 65.0

MICH at OSU 12:00 PM
OSU +4.5

FLA at FSU 12:00 PM
FSU +8.5

GT at UGA 12:00 PM
UGA -16.5
U 59.0

BAY at TTU 12:00 PM
O 63.5

NCST at UNC 12:20 PM
NCST -7.0
U 58.5

WAKE at DUKE 12:30 PM
DUKE -10.0

ODU at RICE 01:00 PM
ODU -7.5
O 61.5

*******************

NMSU at LIB 02:00 PM
LIB -7.0

GASO at GSU 02:00 PM
GASO -10.5

WYO at UNM 02:30 PM
WYO -7.0

TROY at APP 02:30 PM
TROY +11.0
O 45.5

****************

SOMIS at UTEP 03:00 PM
SOMIS -14.0

UAB at MTU 03:00 PM
UAB -3.0

STAN at UCLA 03:00 PM
STAN -6.5

ULL at ULM 03:00 PM
ULM -2.5
O 71.0

TEM at CONN 03:30 PM
TEM -31.0

PITT at MIA 03:30 PM
PITT +5.0

SMU at TLSA 03:30 PM
TLSA +3.0

ILL at NW 03:30 PM
NW -16.5

MD at PSU 03:30 PM
MD +12.0

MINN at WIS 03:30 PM
MINN +11.0

ASU at ARIZ 03:30 PM
ARIZ +1.5

AUB at ALA 03:30 PM
AUB +24.5

*******************

RUTG at MSU 04:00 PM
RUTG +24.5

TENN at VAN 04:00 PM
VAN -3.5

ARST at TXST 04:00 PM
ARST -10.5

CHAR at FAU 06:00 PM
FAU -17.0

 

[Cnotes53]

UK at LOU 07:00 PM
UK -17.0
U 53.0

SJSU at FRES 07:00 PM
SJSU +31.5
O 51.0

COLO at CAL 07:00 PM
CAL -10.5

SOCAR at CLEM 07:00 PM
CLEM -25.5

UNT at UTSA 07:00 PM
UNT -25.0

KSU at ISU 07:00 PM
KSU +10.0

LSU at TAM 07:30 PM
TAM -3.0
U 46.5

**************

OKST at TCU 08:00 PM
TCU +6.0
O 52.5

ND at USC 08:00 PM
ND -12.5

NEV at UNLV 09:30 PM
NEV -14.0

**********************

BYU at UTAH 10:00 PM
BYU +10.5
U 44.5

USU at BSU 10:15 PM
BSU -2.5

HAW at SDSU 10:30 PM
SDSU -18.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday's best
November 24, 2018
By The Associated Press

STARS

-Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, matched a school record with five touchdown passes and ran for a score to lead the No. 1 Crimson Tide to a 52-21 victory over rival Auburn.

-Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State, threw five touchdown passes and the No. 10 Buckeyes continued their mastery over No. 4 Michigan with a record-setting 62-39 victory to reach the Big Ten championship game.

-Jake Fromm, Georgia, threw a career-best four TD passes, helping the No. 5 Bulldogs romp into the Southeastern Conference championship game with a 45-21 rout of Georgia Tech.

-Cade Carney, Wake Forest, rushed for a career-high 223 yards and the Demon Deacons closed out their regular season with a 59-7 win over Duke.

-K.J. Costello, Stanford, threw for 344 yards and career-high five TDs leading the Cardinal to a 49-42 victory over UCLA.

-Travis Homer, Miami, rushed for 168 yards and a long TD as the Hurricanes closed their regular season by knocking off No. 24 Pittsburgh 24-3.

-Reggie Gallaspy II, North Carolina State, scored his school-record-tying fifth TD on a 1-yard run in overtime in a 34-28 win over North Carolina.

---

BIG GAME BUCKEYES

After a most unusual regular season for Ohio State, it was business as usual against Michigan.

Dwayne Haskins threw five touchdown passes, freshman Chris Olave had a breakout performance and No. 10 Ohio State continued its mastery over No. 4 Michigan with a record-setting 62-39 victory that sends the Buckeyes to the Big Ten championship game.

The Wolverines were two victories away from their first conference championship since 2004 and a trip to the College Football Playoff, facing an Ohio State team that has looked discombobulated on defense and one-dimensional on offense much of the season. Looking to snap a six-game losing streak against the Buckeyes and get coach Jim Harbaugh his first victory in four tries in the rivalry known simply as The Game, the Wolverines wilted.

In the 115th meeting between two of college football's most storied schools, Ohio State scored the most points ever in regulation against Michigan.

And now, despite all the dysfunction at Ohio State this season - both on and off the field - the Buckeyes will face No. 20 Northwestern next week in Indianapolis with a chance to repeat as Big Ten champs and maybe even squeeze into the playoff.

---

TUA'S TOUCHDOWNS

Tua Tagovailoa came out of halftime firing touchdown strikes down the field, and the result was another runaway Alabama victory.

Tagovailoa threw five touchdown passes, ran for a score and could scarcely miss in the second half to lead the top-ranked Crimson Tide to a 52-21 victory over rival Auburn.

Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide took over with an explosive third quarter, when the Heisman Trophy contender threw three long touchdown passes. He's the first Alabama player to have a hand in six TDs in a game and matched the school record with the five scoring passes.

Now, `Bama heads to the SEC championship game against No. 5 Georgia with a guaranteed playoff spot on the line.

---

NUMBERS

4-All-time defensive futility marks by major NCAA program set by UConn this season: most yards (7,409), yards per game (617.4), points (605) and points per game (50.41).

7-Games with at least 100 yards receiver by Purdue's Rondale Moore, matching the school record.

20-Rushing TDs by Montana State's Troy Andersen, a school record.

36-Straight years Florida State played in a bowl game before falling short this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 12 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Patriots -9.5 (1,007)

2) Giants +6 (902)

3) Steelers -3 (837)

4) Packers +3.5 (721)

5) Panthers -3.5 (691)

6) Colts -7.5 (683)

Season record: 35-28-3

Quote of the Day
?They slowly devastated us throughout the game. Knowing all the yards they were putting up and how easily they were scoring, it was tough. It was very tough. They completely beat us everywhere. Run game, pass game, everyone is to blame.?
Michigan safety Tyree Kinnel

Sunday?s quiz
Which NFL team did Nick Saban used to coach?

Saturday?s quiz
Mike Leach has been head coach at Washington State and Texas Tech.

Friday?s quiz
Wade Phillips was coach of the Dallas Cowboys before Jason Garrett.

**********************

Sunday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday??.

13) Ohio State 62, Michigan 39
? Rough day for the Wolverines, the most points they?ve ever allowed in a non-OT game.
? Michigan has now lost its last nine visits to Columbus.
? Urban Meyer is 7-0 SU as an underdog with the Buckeyes.
? Ohio State had four TD plays of 24+ yards; they also blocked a punt for a TD.
? Michigan QB Patterson got hurt late in game; check status for their bowl game.

Who does this promote to the #4 spot nationally? Oklahoma? Ohio State? Georgia? Oklahoma is 108th in country in yardage defense, giving up 449 yards per game. Oy.

12) Texas A&M 74, LSU 72, 7 OT?s? Fifth 7-OT game in history, highest scoring game in I-A history. I actually felt bad that someone had to lose? kids were all trying so hard.

Aggies ended a 7-game losing streak to LSU.

Plays run: Texas A&M 107, LSU 90. By way of comparison, in the Rams? 54-51 win over the Chiefs Monday night, plays run were: Rams 75, Chiefs 69

11) Arizona State 41, Arizona 40? Wildcats missed a 45-yard FG with 0:13 left; the kid had gone 4-4 on FG?s before that, but now Arizona doesn?t go bowling.

This was first time since 2007 that ASU won a game after trailing by 19+ points.

10) Purdue 28, Indiana 21? Boilermakers are bowl eligible, Hoosiers aren?t. Question becomes this for Purdue; will coach Brohm still be their coach for the bowl game, or will have bolted to Louisville by then? It is a fair question.

9) Baylor 35, Texas Tech 24? Bears are 6-6 and bowl eligible; Texas Tech is 5-7 and may be looking for a new head coach. Baylor coach Matt Rhule won at Temple, which says a lot; he is a very good coach.

Baylor was 32-7 from 2013-15, so the fanbase was getting spoiled before off-field issues sent the Bears into a tailspin. Rhule has pulled them out of the tailspin.

8) Florida 41, Florida State 14? Seminoles finish 5-7, their first losing season since 1976, the first time they?re not going bowling since 1981. Over last 11 years, FSU is 1-6 vs spread when they?re a home underdog.

7) Upsets of the Week:
? Charlotte (+17) 24, Florida Atlantic 21
? UNLV (+13.5) 34, Nevada 29
? Wake Forest (+12.5) 59, Duke 7
? Minnesota (+11) 37, Wisconsin 15
? Western Kentucky (+10.5) 30, Louisiana Tech 15
? Rice (+7.5) 27, Old Dominion 13
? Syracuse (+7) 42, Boston College 21
? Western Michigan (+6.5) 28, Northern Illinois 21

6) NC State 34, North Carolina 28 OT? A fracas broke out right after the Wolfpack scored the game-winning TD. Watching a replay of it, the funny thing is that there are no officials in the picture at all- they must have bolted to the locker room as soon as the kid crossed the goal line.

Tar Heels finish a putrid season 2-9, which started with a lot of their players being suspended for selling the free Jordan Brand stuff they get from the school.

5) Southern Mississippi 39, UTEP 7? Eagles are the 78th I-A team to clinch at least a 6-6 record, so with 39 bowl games, there will be no 5-7 teams headed to bowls this season.

Tulane 29, Navy 28? Congrats to the Green Wave on going bowling for first time since 2013.

4) Central Michigan fired football coach John Bonamego this week, ending a cruddy year for the Chippewas. Earlier this season, Paulette Bonamego, the coach?s wife, was banned from Kelly/Shorts Stadium following an October 13 confrontation with CMU play-by-play broadcaster Don Chiodo in the press box.

Losing is often as hard on the coach?s family as it is on the coach.

3) Washington 28, Washington State 15? Huskies win Apple Cup for sixth year in a row, and wins a spot in next weekend?s Pac-12 title game.

2) University of Albany was supposed to be one of the best basketball teams in America East this winter, but both their returning senior guards bolted as graduate transfers, one to Villanova, one to Florida State. The grass always looks greener on someone else?s lawn.

As luck would have it, Villanova-Florida State play today in finals of the AdvoCare tournament at DisneyWorld in Orlando. Neither kid starts for his new team.

1) Best wishes to NFL legend Mike Ditka 79, who had a mild heart attack in Florida this week. Get well soon, coach.

 

[Cnotes53]

November's Cbb Opinions Record and Best Bets:

DATE .......W-L-T......... % UNITS

11/24/2018 25-31-2 44.64% -45.50
11/23/2018 11-15-1 42.31% -27.50
11/22/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/20/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/17/2018 36-32-0 52.94% +4.00
11/16/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/15/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/14/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/10/2018 28-29-0 49.12% -19.50
11/09/2018 3-1-0 100.00% +10.00
11/08/2018 0-5-0 0.00% -27.50
11/07/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/06/2018 29-22-3 56.86% +24.00

Totals...........143-148-3.....49.14%......-94.50


DATE......................ATS.............UNITS... .............O/U............UNITS............TOTAL

11/24/2018...........17 - 11.........+24.50..............1 - 8...........43.95............-19.45
11/23/2018............6 - 3...........+13.50...............2 - 6..........-28.50............-15.00
11/22/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................1 - 1...........-0.50.............-1.00
11/20/2018............2 - 0...........+10.00..............0 - 2............-11.00...........-1.00
11/17/2018...........11 - 12.........-11.00...............4 - 4............-2.00............-13.00
11/16/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................1 - 1............-0.50............-1.00
11/15/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................1 - 1............-0.50...........-1.00
11/14/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................0 - 2............-11.00.........-11.50
11/10/2018...........10 - 13.........-21.50................3 - 2............+4.00..........-17.50
11/09/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................2 - 0............+10.00........+9.50
11/08/2018............0 - 3............-16.50...............0 - 2.............-11.00.........-27.50
11/07/2018............1 - 0............+5.00................2 - 1............+4.50..........+9.50
11/06/2018............6 - 5............+2.50................1 - 6............-11.50...........-9.00

Totals.................58 - 52............+4.00...............18 - 36.........-101.95..........-97.95

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 12 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Patriots -9.5 (1,007)- W

2) Giants +6 (902)- W

3) Steelers -3 (837)- L

4) Packers +3.5 (721)- L

5) Panthers -3.5 (691)- L

6) Colts -7.5 (683)- L

Season record: 37-32-3

Quote of the Day
?It doesn?t matter what I want. I?m just telling you what?s going to happen. Mack Brown will be the head coach for his second tenure at North Carolina. Mark it down.?
ESPN and SiriusXM football analyst Tom Luginbill

Monday?s quiz
Who was the football coach at Alabama before Nick Saban?
(Hint: He is an assistant coach in the NFL now)

Sunday?s quiz
Nick Saban went 15-17 coaching the Miami Dolphins for two years.

Saturday?s quiz
Mike Leach has been head coach at Washington State and Texas Tech.

********************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Seahawks 30, Panthers 27? Carolina had ball nine times in this game; they got inside Seattle 20-yard line on seven of those nine drives, but scored only 27 points, which isn?t good, and it cost them this game- they also missed a 51-yard FG on one of the two drives that didn?t get into the red zone. Panthers also fumbled five times, though they didn?t lose any of them.

Carolina lost its last three games, with no takeaways in any of them; this was their first home loss this season. Seattle passes the Panthers in Wild Card race; they?re 10-6-2 in last 18 games as a road underdog.

Browns 35, Bengals 20? Maybe it IS Hue Jackson?s fault; Browns won two of three games since they sent Jackson away, scoring 28-35 points in last two games. Bengals brought Jackson on as an assistant coach and haven?t won since, giving up 51-24-35 points in their last three games.

Cleveland?s offense in first half: 4 drives, 37 plays, 289 yards, four TD?s. They ran out the last 0:32 of the first half with a fifth drive.

Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in this game, as Cincy lost for 5th time in last six tries.

Browns ended a 25-game losing streak with this win. This was first time the expansion-Browns ever scored 28+ points in a first half; last time the old Browns (now the Ravens) scored 28+ points in the first half of a game was back in 1991.

Buccaneers 27, 49ers 9? This doesn?t happen much, but every so often, handicapping is a simple game. Saturday night, 49ers? LB Reuben Foster was arrested at the team?s hotel and charged with domestic violence. The night before a game- brilliant!!! This makes the 49ers a go-against play.

49ers released Foster after the game.

Buccaneers gained 400+ yards for 6th time in last seven games, but won for first time in last five weeks. For once, they didn?t turn the ball over, going +3 in turnovers.

Eagles 25, Giants 22:
? Giants in first half: 5 drives, 38 plays, 346 yards, 19 points
? Giants in second half: 5 drives, 22 plays, 56 yards, 3 points.
? Philly was scoreless in first quarter for 5th game in a row.
? Eagles won 17 of their last 21 games against the Giants.

Unless Saquon Barkley is hurt and Giants are hushing it up, they committed malpractice here by not feeding him the ball enough. 13 runs, 8 pass targets wasn?t near enough in this game and for the love of God, if you go for two points from the 1-yard line, give him the bleeping ball!!!!

Bills 24, Jaguars 21? This game was like a throwback to the 70?s; both teams ran for more yards than they threw for; Bills completed only 8 passes all day, but on an unseasonably warm day in western NY (44 degrees), Jacksonville lost its 7th game in a row.

Bills? rookie QB Allen ran the ball 13 times for 99 yards; unless he learns to slide or get OB and avoid big hits, he is going to have a short NFL career. He?s got talent, but he?s got to preserve his health, or else??..

Ravens 34, Raiders 17? Speaking of running QB?s, Lamar Jackson toned it down in this game, running only 11 times, after 27 runs LW; Jackson is 2-0 as an NFL starter while Oakland lost for 6th time in its last seven games. Raiders are 15 for their last 55 on third down.

Patriots 27, Jets 13? New England is now 13-2 in last 15 series games; they gained 498 yards in this game, averaging 9.1 yards/pass attempt in a game where Jets had 10-yard advantage in field position. Patriots won last five series games played in the New Jersey swamp; they?re 14-7 vs spread in last 21 games as road favorites.

Colts 27, Dolphins 24? Indy won its fifth straight game after a 1-5 start; they?ve scored 26 TD?s on their last 63 drives. Andrew Luck seems like a lock for Comeback Player of the Year.

Colts were sloppy in this game; they turned ball over three times (-2), missed a FG, but scored all three times they had ball in 4th quarter and pulled this game out. Right now, Indy is #7 seed in AFC. Miami lost six of its last eight games after a 3-0 start; I?m guessing jobs are in jeopardy at this point. Dolphins lost their last five road games.

Chargers 45, Cardinals 10? Arizona led 10-0 after first quarter, then they played the rest of the game, and they got crushed. Cardinals lost five of their last six games; they?re 1-4 on road, with all four losses by 10+ points

Philip Rivers completed his first 25 passes, was 28-29 for the game. Chargers scored TD?s on five consecutive drives spanning 2nd/3rd quarters, gaining 320 yards on 40 plays, in an impressive display of offense (or bad defense). Bolts won seven of their last eight games.

Broncos 24, Steelers 17? Wild game, with lots of twists/turns:
? Steelers outgained Denver 527-308, but they were -4 in turnovers, which is almost always a recipe for disaster.
? Pittsburgh tied game on last play of first half, on a fake FG- the kicker threw a TD pass to an offensive lineman. Gutsy call, borderline insane, but it worked.
? Steelers had ball on the Denver 2-yard line with 1:10 left, but Roethlisberger?s pass was picked off by a defensive lineman? not Big Ben?s finest moment.
? Pittsburgh drops to #4 seed in AFC with this loss; they would play Chargers in first round, if playoffs started today. Pittsburgh hosts the Chargers this coming Sunday night.

Vikings 24, Packers 17? Green Bay is 0-6 on the road, and Mike McCarthy?s job security has to be almost zero. Was thinking about possible replacements; how about Jeff Tedford?

Tedford was Aaron Rodgers? college coach at Cal; he was at Cal for 11 years, has been at Fresno State the last two years, and was HC in the CFL for a year in between. It makes some sense.

Right now, Minnesota is the #5 seed in the NFC; three teams are a half-game behind them.

Calgary 27, Ottawa 16? Stampeders lost the CFL?s championship game the last couple years, so they get some vindication by winning their second Grey Cup in five years- they also won in ?14.

College football coaching carousel:
? Texas Tech fired Cliff Kingsbury
? North Carolina fired Larry Fedora
? USC retained Clay Helton, despite their 5-7 record.

 

[Cnotes53]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 13
November 25, 2018
By VI News

Glancing at the scoreboard won?t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the final big college football weekend.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Miami, OH (-14?) 42, Ball State 21: This Tuesday night game was tied at halftime as heavy favorite Miami scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half to erase a 21-7 deficit. Miami took over in the third quarter to lead by 14 on a spread that was as high as -17? early in the week. In the fourth the Redhawks got past the number with a 95-yard touchdown drive to lead by 21 and then held off two late Ball State drives into Miami territory.

Iowa (-8?) 31, Nebraska 28: The spread on this game dived from -10 down to as low as -7? and the halftime score was right in that range with a 21-13 Iowa edge. Iowa went up by 15 early in the third quarter but then was stopped going for it on 4th down at the Nebraska 3-yard-line to keep the Cornhuskers in the game. Nebraska completed a 98-yard touchdown drive to get back within eight and looked poised to get closer early in the fourth before an interception in Iowa territory. Iowa wasn?t able to extend the lead as a 37-yard field goal was missed and the Huskers went 80 yards to tie the game, successfully converting the two-point conversion. Iowa was able to methodically burn the remaining clock while giving kicker Miguel Recinos a shot at redemption and he hit from 41 yards for the Iowa win as time expired, though the underdog earned the cover.

Texas (-15) 24, Kansas 17: With a spot in the Big XII title game on the line Sam Ehlinger played for the Longhorns but it was a flat start with just a 7-0 edge at halftime. Texas was able to score twice late in the third quarter to get to 21-0 but Kansas wound up with 17 points in the fourth quarter including 10 points in the final four minutes to steal the underdog cover, though with just a 297-296 yardage edge for Texas as the Jayhawks deserved the close scoring result.

Central Florida (-14?) 38, South Florida 10: UCF took an early 17-0 lead but South Florida trimmed the margin to 17-10 late in the third quarter in a game where star Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton left with a serious leg injury. UCF would run the ball with great success and turned a 14-point edge at the start of the fourth quarter into a 38-10 final result.

Memphis (-10) 52, Houston 31: There were wild swings in this game as a 7-0 Houston edge early turned to a 17-7 deficit before Houston scored twice in two minutes late in the second quarter to lead 21-17 at the half. A back-and-forth game continued in the third quarter with the score knotted at 31-31 through three quarters. Houston posted three scoring drives in the fourth quarter leaning on Darrell Henderson while Houston?s final two drives ended stopped on downs and with an interception. The Tigers will head back to the AAC Championship game for a rematch with UCF while finishing well past the favorite spread that jumped from -7 to -10.

Virginia Tech (+5?) 34, Virginia 31: Looking to snap a long drought in this series the Cavaliers botched some early opportunities with a red zone fumble and then on an interception return at the end of the half, Tim Harris was caught by quarterback Ryan Willis short of the end zone as the Hokies kept a 14-0 edge at the break. Virginia would score touchdowns on four straight possessions to start the second half to lead 28-24 with seven minutes to go facing a spread that fluctuated in between -3? and -5?. The Cavaliers then forced a fumble and an interception on the next two possessions for the Hokies, eventually adding a field goal to lead by seven with just over two minutes to go. Virginia Tech hit a 45-yard pass to get into the red zone and then on a rush approaching the end zone a forced fumble that would have effectively ended the game for the Cavaliers was recovered for a touchdown by the Hokies. In overtime Virginia Tech went first and didn?t gain a yard but hit the 42-yard field goal, leaving those laying the points with the Cavaliers in need of a second session. The Hokies came up big on defense forcing another turnover to keep bowl hopes alive while maintaining the winning streak in this rivalry.

Oklahoma (-3) 59, West Virginia 56: This game for a spot in the Big XII title game lived up to expectations with a high scoring back-and-forth affair. A defensive touchdown gave Oklahoma the early edge with a 35-28 halftime advantage but West Virginia tied the game early in the third quarter and had a 49-45 lead through three quarters. It would be defense that again delivered for Oklahoma with a 48-yard fumble return touchdown with 10 minutes to go for a 10-point edge. West Virginia climbed back within three to match the closing spread though most Sooners backers likely had a number below -3. Oklahoma picked up a 4th-and-5 conversion just past midfield and then got another first down to end the game with the three-point edge.

Clemson (-25?) 56, South Carolina 35: Highly ranked Clemson was tested in a back-and-forth first half vs. South Carolina with the Tigers eventually posting 744 yards but not exactly looking like a championship contender on defense with the Gamecocks also reaching 600 yards of offense. The Tigers led by just seven at halftime and by 21 through three quarters but a 98-yard touchdown drive put the Tigers up by 28 and past the favorite spread early in the third quarter. The Gamecocks scored the next 14 to get back within the number as a late Tigers touchdown wasn?t quite enough to get past the heavy favorite spread.

Marshall (-3?) 28, Florida International 25: The Herd led 14-0 early with the help of a interception return touchdown playing as a slight road favorite with a closing line of -3? though most books opened with FIU as a slight favorite. Marshall scored on a blocked punt late in the third quarter to lead by 11 but early in the fourth the Panthers got a touchdown and a two-point conversion to trail by just three. Marshall answered with a four-minute drive to lead by 10 but FIU again scored to get back within three with about five minutes remaining. The Herd burned the remaining clock and got inside the 10-yard line of FIU but didn?t need to add points and took a knee for a common line push though the hook was added on Saturday for many.

Northwestern (-14?) 24, Illinois 16: With a championship game on deck Northwestern was sluggish early but two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half put the Wildcats up 21-6 and then a third quarter field goal made the margin 18 points on a spread that opened at 18 and dipped to 14? by kickoff. Illinois would add 10 points in the fourth quarter in a game where the Illini had a production edge and actually had the ball inside the Northwestern 20-yard-line late with a potential chance to tie before an interception.

NC State (-7?) 34, North Carolina 28: These nearby rivals were tied 21-21 through three quarters and 28-28 late in the fourth quarter. NC State opted to punt across midfield in the final minute to play for overtime and the move paid off as the Tar Heels went first in overtime and missed a field goal. Much of the week the NC State was just -6 and that was the final margin with a Wolfpack rush into the end zone that preceded some spirited post-game activity in the end zone between the teams.

Liberty (-6) 28, New Mexico State 21: Liberty stormed out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter of this same-season rematch. New Mexico State would score on a kickoff return touchdown and an interception return touchdown to get back in the game before the end of the first quarter. Liberty moved ahead 28-14 by halftime facing a spread that dropped from -9 all the way to -6 by kickoff. With less than a minute to go the Aggies found the end zone on a 4th-and-goal play to land in the middle of the potential numbers.

Boise State (-2?) 33, Utah State 24: Boise State led 17-7 early as just a slight favorite at home with a spot in the Mountain West Championship on the line. Through three quarters the lead was trimmed to six points and Utah State hit a field goal early in the fourth to trail by three. Boise State scored halfway through the final frame after getting a red zone 4th down conversion but a bad snap cost the Broncos the PAT for just a nine-point advantage. A pair of punts followed but with about three minutes to go the Aggies connected for an 83-yard touchdown to suddenly trail by just two. The Aggies had converted a 4th-and-1 from their own 24-yard line and hit the big play on 2nd-and-25 after a pair of penalties for what looked like a miracle score for those getting the points with Utah State, with a two-point margin thanks to Boise missing on the PAT earlier in the quarter. A 59-yard run put Boise State inside the Utah State 10 in the final minute and eventually facing 4th down with only eight seconds to go the Broncos opted to go for it from the 1-yard-line rather than kicking a field goal. Both types of scores would have been enough for Broncos backers and Alexander Mattison made it a moot point by pounding into the end zone to secure the home favorite win and cover.

California (-11?) 33, Colorado 21: The Bears had a pair of touchdowns on interception returns in the first two minutes of the game and then added another short field score to lead 21-0 as Colorado?s hopes of making a bowl game were extinguished quickly. The Buffaloes kept things interesting relative to the spread however as they scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to cut the margin to just six points after trailing 24-7 at halftime. The Cal offense barely topped 200 yards in the game but converted a red zone 4th down via penalty and added a touchdown for a 12-point edge, failing going for two to sit right near the spread that opened at -11, reached as high as -12?, and closed at -11?. The Buffaloes would reach midfield on a late possession but didn?t add points for a 12-point final margin that led to mixed spread results.

Stanford (-7) 49, UCLA 42: The Cardinal extended its lead to 41-27 late in the third quarter but the Bruins added nine points late in the quarter with a safety and a subsequent kickoff return touchdown to make it a five-point game into the fourth quarter. The Bruins took a one-point edge with a 90-yard touchdown drive five minutes into the fourth quarter but didn?t get the conversion. A minute later Stanford hit a 52-yard pass for a touchdown and the Cardinal got the two-point attempt for a seven-point edge in a critical play with a spread that bounced between -6? and -7 for the road favorite. UCLA missed a long field goal try on its next possession and was stopped on downs on two late drives in Stanford territory as the Cardinal escaped with the seven-point edge holding.

Texas A&M (-3) 74, LSU 72: The Aggies led by seven after the second and third quarters but a defensive score for LSU tied the game early in the fourth quarter. LSU would take a 31-24 lead in the final frame and then stopped the Aggies on 4th down in LSU territory with just over two minutes to go. LSU only burned a minute off the clock before punting and Aggies delivered a big finish surviving an interception that was overturned on review and then converting a 4th-and-18. One second was put back on the clock for Texas A&M after a Kellen Mond spike and he hit Quartney Davis for the tying touchdown. The game would eventually go to seven overtimes with some big conversions on both sides to reach a basketball level final score. In the seventh session LSU scored on just one play but didn?t get the two-pointer to lead by just six. The Aggies got the tying score and then got a pass interference call on the first two-point conversion try. The Aggies then had a false start but found the completion for the go-ahead conversion though it wasn?t quite enough for Aggies backers who crossed or reached the favorite number going first in the second, fourth, and sixth overtimes but couldn?t end the game on defense.

Notre Dame (-14) 24, USC 17: With all the pressure on Notre Dame as a heavy road favorite, USC led 10-0 early before the Irish got on the board just before halftime. Notre Dame was composed out of the break and scored 10 points to take a seven-point edge into the fourth quarter. On a spread that climbed from -8 to -14 Notre Dame made the margin 14 with a 51-yard passing touchdown with just over three minutes remaining to put most on the favorite in position to collect. USC didn?t fold however and on 3rd-and-10 in the final minute the Trojans hit a 20-yard strike to get back within the number.

Alabama (-26?) 52, Auburn 21: Alabama hasn?t had to do much 4th quarter scoring this season but after Auburn cut the margin to 10 points late in the third quarter Alabama turned it back on with three consecutive touchdowns on just eight offensive snaps to make it a 31-point margin with nine minutes to go in the game. Auburn gained some yardage late but wasn?t a serious backdoor threat late on two drives across midfield as the Iron Bowl wound up with a blowout final score and the heavy favorite snagging the cover.

UNLV (+14) 34, Nevada 29: The Wolf Pack led 23-0 early in this game but only took a 26-21 edge into halftime. UNLV kept the momentum and led through three quarters. A field goal put Nevada in front by one in the fourth quarter but with Armani Rogers back UNLV completed a late long drive to secure the upset while Nevada?s last threat ended with an interception.

Arizona State (-1) 41, Arizona 40: The Sun Devils opened as a 3-point favorite but the line dipped down to just -1 in this rivalry game with Arizona looking to earn a bowl spot. The line differences didn?t seem to matter with Arizona in front 40-21 through three quarters, missing on a two-point conversion tries when they were up 12 in both the second and third quarters. Those missed points came back to bite as Arizona State engineered a remarkable comeback with 20 points in the fourth quarter, with the final two scores following Arizona turnovers with the lead. After ASU went in front 41-40 with three minutes remaining, Khalil Tate led the Wildcats in position for a 45-yard field goal but the go-ahead kick was missed.

 

[Cnotes53]

ACC Championship Game History

The Atlantic Coast Conference is the postseason title game for the conference, and it is held on the first Saturday in December. The 12-team league was divided equally into two divisions of six teams each, with the best conference record in each division meeting for the title. Due to future expansion, each division will increase over the next two years with Pittsburgh and Syracuse joining in 2013. Louisville filled the void of Maryland in 2014, who left for the Big Ten in the same year.

The inaugural game was played in 2005 with Virginia Tech entering the game as a two-touchdown favorite against Florida State. Things didn't exactly go according to play for Frank Beamer and the Hokies, as the Seminoles paid off handsomely with a 27-22 outright victory. The following season, the underdog came through again, with Wake Forest winning an ugly 9-6 slugfest.

From 2007-2010, the favorite reigned supreme, with Virginia Tech claiming the title in three of those four games. The over also connected from 2008 through 2010, but the total has been split down the middle in eight championship games to date. The same holds true for the favorite and underdog, with each covering four times.

Since the inception of the championship game format, the Atlantic Division champion has seven titles, and the Coastal Division champion has five titles. Nine different ACC teams have made an appearance in the championship game, with Louisville, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Virginia never appearing in the big game.

Florida State (4), Virginia Tech (3) and Clemson (3) are the only schools to have multiple championships, while FSU (2012-14) and Clemson (2015-17) are the only winners in three consecutive seasons.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY

Year Location Matchup Line Score ATS Result

2018 Charlotte, NC Pittsburgh-Clemson
- - -
2017 Charlotte, NC Miami-Clemson Clemson -12.5 (48) Clemson 38-3 Favorite-Under

2016 Orlando, FL Clemson-Virginia Tech Clemson -11 (60) Clemson 42-35 Underdog-Over

2015 Charlotte, NC Clemson-North Carolina Clemson -6.5 (69) Clemson 45-37 Favorite-Over

2014 Charlotte, NC Florida State-Georgia Tech Florida State -3.5 (64) Florida State 37-35 Underdog-Over

2013 Charlotte, NC Florida State-Duke Florida State -30 (67) Florida State 45-7 Favorite-Under

2012 Charlotte, NC Florida State-Georgia Tech Florida State -14 (62) Florida State 21-15 Underdog-Under

2011 Charlotte, NC Virginia Tech-Clemson Virginia Tech -7 (54) Clemson 38-10 Underdog-Under

2010 Charlotte, NC Virginia Tech-Florida State Virginia Tech -4.5 (51) Virginia Tech 44-33 Favorite-Over

2009 Tampa Bay, FL Georgia Tech-Clemson Georgia Tech -1 (56.5) Georgia Tech 39-34 Favorite-Over

2008 Tampa Bay, FL Virginia Tech-Boston College Virginia Tech -1 (38.5) Virginia Tech 30-12 Favorite-Over

2007 Jacksonville, FL Virginia Tech-Boston College Virginia Tech -5 (48.5) Virginia Tech 30-16 Favorite-Under

2006 Jacksonville, FL Wake Forest-Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -3 (40.5) Wake Forest 9-6 Underdog-Under

2005 Atlanta, GA Virginia Tech-Florida State Virginia Tech -14 (44.5) Florida State 27-22 Underdog-Over