Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[Cnotes53]

Week 5

Thursday?s games
Georgia Southern won/covered all five games with South Alabama, winning 24-9/28-6 in two visits here; Eagles ran ball for 295+ yards in all five games. GSU is 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, giving up 43.4 ppg- since moving to I-A football, they?re 9-8 ATS as road faves. South Alabama gave up 35.5 ppg in losing its first four I-A games; they only lost 35-21 at Nebraska, but in their last three games, USA was outgained, 1,472-815. Since moving to I-A football, Jaguars are 7-11 as home underdogs. Under is 3-0 in GSU?s I-A games, 4-0 in USA?s games.

Temple is 3-1 but lost only road game 38-22 at Buffalo as a 14-point favorite; Owls had been 10-2-1 ATS in previous 13 games as a road favorite. Temple won/covered last five games with East Carolina, taking last three by average score of 40-9. Owls have home wins this year over Maryland, Ga Tech. ECU has two wins over I-AA teams this year (why?); they?re 1-2 vs I-A teams, upsetting ODU last week. Pirates are 3-9 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog. Nationwide, home underdogs are 12-14 ATS in conference games so far this season.

Friday?s games
Central Florida is 4-1 this year, scoring 45.8 ppg in four I-A games; their only loss was 35-34 at Pitt. Knights allowed 865 yards in their last two games. UCF is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-1 this year. Freshman QB Gabriel (from Hawai?i) is completing 61.7% of his passes, with 14 TD?s, only two INT?s. UCF beat Cincinnati the last three years, by average score of 38-13; Bearcats got crushed at Ohio St, but won their other three games, running for 464 yards in last two games. Cincy is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.

New Mexico split its first four games but allowed 2,124 yards, including 558 yards (443 PY) to a I-AA team; they scored 14-10 points in losing both road games, falling 17-10 (+7) at Liberty LW. Last five years, Lobos are 8-10-1 ATS as a road underdog. San Jose State won three of last four games with New Mexico; dogs covered three of those four games. San Jose won at Arkansas but lost its other I-A games by 18-17 points; Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Nationwide, home favorites are 31-17 ATS in conference games this year.

Saturday?s top 13 games
Last ten years, Texas is 0-10 ATS the week before they play Oklahoma. Underdogs are 5-2 SU in last seven Texas-West Virginia games; Longhorns won two of last three visits here (favorites 2-1 ATS). Road team won five of last seven series games. Under Herman, Texas is 4-4 ATS as a road favorite (1-0 in ?19), 3-6 as a double digit fave (2-0 in ?19). West Virginia is 3-1 this year, but gave up 89 points in their three I-A games; over last decade, WVU is 5-6-1 ATS as a home underdog. Home teams covered five of first six Big X conference games this year.

Duke scored 86 points in winning its last two games, both on road, when they ran ball for 460 yards; Blue Devils lost four of their last five games with Pitt, which won its last three visits to Durham, by 3-18-7 points. Underdogs covered five of last six series games. Last 4+ years, Duke is 6-12 ATS as a home favorite. Pitt upset UCF two weeks ago, then was life/death to nip I-AA Delaware 17-14 LW; under Narduzzi, Panthers are 13-6 ATS as a road underdog. Three of four Pitt games stayed under the total.

Underdogs covered five of last six Baylor-Kansas State games, including last four meetings here; Bears won two of last three trips to the Little Apple. Baylor is 4-0 after upsetting Iowa St at home LW; Bears are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog- they won their only road game this year, 21-13 (-27) at Rice. K-State allowed 574 YR in splitting its last two games; they completed only 21-41 passes in those games. Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-0 this year; they ran for 225+ yards in last four series games.

Texas Tech beat Oklahoma State 41-17 LY, ending a 9-game series skid; Cowboys won their last five visits to Lubbock, scoring 52.6 ppg. Underdogs covered four of last five series games. OSU is 4-1 with road wins at Oregon St/Tulsa; they ran ball for 373 yards in LW?s win over K-State. Last three years, Cowboys are 7-5 ATS as a road favorite. Tech was held to 14-16 points in losing last two games, when they allowed 515 RY; Red Raiders gave up 642 yards to Oklahoma LW, 441 in the air. Tech is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.

Arizona won its last three games, holding Texas Tech/UCLA to 14-17 points the last two games; they?ve given up 415 TY in all four of their games this season, including 442 yards (373 PY) to a I-AA opponent. Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a road dog. Wildcats won six of last seven games with Colorado, beating them 42-34/45-42 the last two years; favorites covered four of last six series games. Colorado is 3-1 despite giving up 444+ yards in all four games; they?re 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6


Saturday, October 5

Arizona @ Colorado

Game 343-344
October 5, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
83.898
Colorado
90.294
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 6 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
by 3 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-3 1/2); Under

Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion

Game 383-384
October 5, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
73.010
Old Dominion
67.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 5 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-3); Over

James Madison @ Stony Brook

Game 311-312
October 5, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
James Madison
81.543
Stony Brook
71.050
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
James Madison
by 10 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
James Madison
by 14
42
Dunkel Pick:
Stony Brook
(+14); Over

Georgia @ Tennessee

Game 363-364
October 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
111.444
Tennessee
78.159
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
by 33 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 24 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(-24 1/2); Over

Massachusetts @ FIU

Game 387-388
October 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
53.244
FIU
69.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 17
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
FIU
by 26 1/2
67
Dunkel Pick:
Massachusetts
(+26 1/2); Over

Rice @ UAB

Game 359-360
October 5, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rice
72.655
UAB
73.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 1 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UAB
by 8 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Rice
(+8 1/2); Over

Tulsa @ SMU

Game 353-354
October 5, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
78.108
SMU
94.132
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
SMU
by 16
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 13
62
Dunkel Pick:
SMU
(-13); Over

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi

Game 375-376
October 5, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vanderbilt
82.152
Mississippi
83.708
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi
by 1 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi
by 7
61
Dunkel Pick:
Vanderbilt
(+7); Over

Michigan State @ Ohio State

Game 391-392
October 5, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
97.603
Ohio State
123.367
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 26
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 20
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-20); Under

Pittsburgh @ Duke

Game 325-326
October 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
89.934
Duke
97.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 7 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 4 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(-4 1/2); Over

California @ Oregon

Game 349-350
October 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
California
86.548
Oregon
106.780
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 20
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 17 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oregon
(-17 1/2); Under

TX-San Antonio @ UTEP

Game 395-396
October 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TX-San Antonio
55.495
UTEP
58.839
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UTEP
by 3 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UTEP
by 1 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UTEP
(-1 1/2); Over

Liberty @ New Mexico St

Game 341-342
October 5, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Liberty
73.934
New Mexico St
62.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 11 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 6
60
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(-6); Under

Oregon State @ UCLA

Game 347-348
October 5, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oregon State
78.226
UCLA
85.759
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCLA
by 7 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCLA
by 5 1/2
67 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UCLA
(-5 1/2); Under

San Diego St @ Colorado State

Game 345-346
October 5, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego St
83.762
Colorado State
74.212
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 11 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 7
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego St
(-7); Under

Washington @ Stanford

Game 351-352
October 5, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
105.729
Stanford
88.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 17 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 14 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-14 1/2); Over

Boise State @ UNLV

Game 397-398
October 5, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boise State
94.084
UNLV
66.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 27
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 23 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(-23 1/2); Under

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 3

Matchup Skinny
Edge

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at SOUTH ALABAMA... GS on 13-7 spread run since late 2017 and has won and covered big the past five years vs. USA. Jags 1-3 last four as Mobile dog.
Georgia Southern, based on series and team trends.


TEMPLE at EAST CAROLINA...ECU got rare cover vs. OSU but still struggling, 2-3 vs. line TY, 12-28-1 vs. points since 2016. Temple has won and covered last five meetings since 2014, won big last three all by 24 or more.
Temple, based on series trends.



Friday, Oct. 4

Matchup Skinny
Edge

UCF at CINCINNATI...UCF 8-2 as visiting chalk since 2016. Fickell 2-3 as dog since LY. UCF has won and covered last three (well, counting the 2017 game, when UCF was blowing out Bearcats but game ended prematurely because of weather).
UCF, based on team and series trends.


NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE... SJS on 10-6 spread uptick. Spartans 13-5-1 as chalk since 2014. Lobos no covers last seven since late 2018, 8-20-1 last 29 on board.
San Jose State, based on team trends.



Saturday, Oct. 5

Matchup Skinny
Edge

SOUTH FLORIDA at UCONN...UConn?s one of two covers LY was vs. USF, and has actually covered last three in series, though just 4-12 vs. spread for Edsall since LY. Charlie Strong 2-6 as chalk since LY and that includes a W vs. South Carolina State on Sept. 14.
UConn, based on team trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at LOUISVILLE...Satterfield on 16-4-1 spread run since late 2017 at App & ?Ville. BC won and covered last two vs. Petrino Cards but only 3-4-1 last eight on board.
Louisville, based on Satterfield marks.


NORTH CAROLINA at GEORGIA TECH...Tech 0-4 vs. line for Collins, 0-7 since late 2018 vs. spread. Paul Johnson did beat Heels last two seasons, however.
Slight to UNC, based on recent trends.


TEXAS at WEST VIRGINIA...Horns just 1-3 as visiting chalk LY. Mounties 9-5-2 vs. spread since LY. Note road team has covered last three in series.
Slight to Texas, based on series trends.


PURDUE at PENN STATE...Brohm 8-4 as dog with Boilers (0-1 TY). James Franklin 15-6-1 at home since mid 2016, 10-3-1 vs. points last 14 as Big Ten host.
Penn State, based on team trends.


BALL STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Cards were 1-7 vs. line on MAC road past two years, 4-9 vs. spread last 13 as visitor (1-0 TY; no count neutral vs. IU). NIU has covered last 7 and won SU last 10 in series.
Northern Illinois, based on series trends.


TULANE at ARMY...Wave has won and covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018. Note road team has covered all four Army games this season, Black Knights just 6-11 vs. line last 17 at Michie since mid 2016.
Tulane, based on team trends.


PITT at DUKE...Pitt has won and covered last four meetings. Narduzzi 7-3 last ten as visiting dog. Duke just 2-6 as home chalk since last season (1-0 2019).
Pitt, based on series trends.


BAYLOR at KANSAS STATE...KSU has covered 4 of last 5 reg season meetings. Rhule was 5-2 as dog last season. Klieman 3-1 SU and vs. line in 2019, Cats on 9-3 spread run since early 2018.
Slight to Kansas State, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at RUTGERS...Road team has covered last three in series. Terps no covers last five as visitor, 1-7 last 8 vs. spread as Big Ten visitor. Ash recently had a 6-game cover streak but has dropped last 3 vs. line. Rutgers was 7-4 as home dog past two seasons.
Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Ok State has covered 5 straight and 8 of 9 since late 2018. TT 2-5 vs. number last 7 as Big 12 host. Though Red Raiders have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series.
Slight to Oklahoma State, based on recent trends.


KENT STATE at WISCONSIN...Badgers have won and covered 4 of last 5 since late 2018, total score 204-32! Wiscy was just 1-5 as Madison chalk LY but was 9?4 overall as chalk as recently as 2017, and 10-5-1 laying DD 2016-17. Golden Flashes 5-4 vs. spread last 9 visiting Power 5, though just 8-10 as DD dog since 2017 (1-1 TY).
Wisconsin, based on recent trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...EMU road mark impresses (2-1 TY after 17-4 previous 3 years away from Ypsilanti), but almost all of that as dog; as road chalk, Eagles 3-2 since 2016. McElwain has covered 4 of first 5 this season, and Chips have covered last 2 meetings.
Slight to Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI-FLA...Fuente presiding over what seems a meltdown at VPI, which is 0-4 vs. line TY after Duke debacle, now 7-15 last 22 overall vs. spread. Miami has won and covered 4 of last 5 and 5 of last 7 in series.
Miami, Fl., based on series and team trends.


TROY at MISSOURI...Troy was a good dog in recent years (10-4 in role 2015-18), and has covered last five against Power 5 opposition including SU wins at LSU and Nebraska past 2 years. Barry Odom however has won and covered big the last three TY and 10-2 last 12 as home chalk.
Slight to Missouri, based on recent trends.


LIBERTY at NEW MEXICO STATE...In this home-and-home, NMSU managed to cover both meetings LY, though home side was 2-0 SU. Ags 2-8 vs. spread last 9 at Las Cruces, however.
Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at COLORADO...Home field has meant something to Sumlin?s Cats, who are 7-2 vs. spread at Tucson but 1-5 vs. number away. Note ?overs? last four in wild rivalry that has seen Cats win SU 6 of last 7. Buffs just 1-4 vs. line last 5 at Boulder (1-1 for Tucker).
"Over" and slight to Arizona, based on series trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at COLORADO STATE...Rams have covered last 3 as home dog for Bobo. Rocky 2-2 vs. line TY after 3-10 mark LY, but is 6-2 vs. spread last 8 on MW road.
Slight to Colorado State, based on recent trends.


OREGON STATE at UCLA...Bruins 5-13 last 18 as Rose Bowl chalk (0-3 in role for Chip). Beavs 4-3 as road dog for Jonathan Smith since LY.
Slight to Oregon State, based on team trends.


CAL at OREGON...Cal has covered last 7 as road dog for Justin Wilcox. Bears also 13-5 as dog for Wilcox. Ducks just 4-5 vs. spread at home for Cristobal, but have won and covered last 2 years vs. Bears.
Cal, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at STANFORD...Tree no covers since NU opener, Shaw now 1-5 vs. spread last five since late 2018. Stanford was 4-0 as home dog since 2012 entering this season before loss to Ducks. Cardinal no covers last three as dog TY after 10-5 mark previous 15 in role. Huskies have covered last four away from Seattle.
Washington, based on recent trends.


TULSA at SMU...Sonny Dykes rockin? and rollin? at 5-0 SU and vs. line, though he hasn?t covered last 2 vs. Tulsa. Hurricane covered first 2 away TY but only 2-4 vs. spread away LY.
Slight to SMU, based on recent trends.


IOWA at MICHIGAN...Ferentz on 14-4-1 spread surge since late 2017, he?s also 7-1-1 vs. points last 9 away from Iowa City. Harbaugh on 1-7 spread skid since late 2018.
Iowa, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA...Lovie 4-9 vs. spread last 13 as visitor (0-1 TY), and 6-15 last 21 vs. points in Big Ten play. Though he has covered last 2 vs. Gophers and won big LY. Gophers 0-2 vs. line at home TY but were 4-2 vs. spread as host in 2018.
Minnesota, based on Lovie trends.


RICE at UAB...Rice 6-2 last 8 as visiting dog, 7-2 last 9 getting 20+. UAB 11-2-1 vs. line since 2017 at legion Field.
Slight to Rice, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA...Pat Fitz had been a great dog in recent years (14-4-1 in role from 2016-18) but 1-2 as dog TY. Road team however has covered last six in this series. Frost just 4-6 vs. spread at Lincoln since LY.
Northwestern, based on team and series trends.


GEORGIA at TENNESSEE...Ga 6-3 vs. spread last nine as SEC visitor, Vols just 4-13 vs. points last 17 at Knoxville but have covered 5 of last 7 in series.
Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.


AIR FORCE at NAVY...Calhoun 18-9-1 as dog since 2014. Navy 6-1 last 7 vs. line and has covered last 3 at Annapolis. Force has covered last three and four of last five meetings.
Air Force, based on team and recent series trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...WMU 2-8 vs. points last ten away from Waldo Stadium. Also 1-7 last 8 as a dog. UT 8-1 last nine as Glass Bowl chalk. Rockets have won and covered big the past two seasons.
Toledo, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA at KANSAS...OU 4-1-1 vs. spread last 6 away from Norman, though was only 3-6 laying DD LY (2-1 in role TY). Jayhawks covered big price LY but just 1-4 vs. spread last five in series.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on series trends.


OHIO at BUFFALO...Solich 11-6 vs. spread last 17 on MAC team, 13-5 as dog since 2015, and covered last six as MAC dog. Bulls 10-3-1 vs. spread as host since 2017, and host has won and covered last six meetings.
Ohio, based on team trends.


TCU at IOWA STATE...Frogs 2-6 last 8 vs. Big 12 teams away from Fort Worth. Patterson only 6-6 in once solid dog role past three years. Matt Campbell has covered all three vs. TCU since 2016.
Iowa State, based on team and recent series trends.


VANDERBILT at OLE MISS...Derek Mason only 5-12 last 17 as dog. He has covered 3 of last 4 vs. Ole Miss, however, and did cover last three on SEC road in 2018. Rebs on 5-11-1 spread since last season.
Slight to Vanderbilt, based on recent trends.


MARSHALL at MTSU...Herd 10-5 vs. spread last 15 away from Huntington (1-0 TY), though just 3-6 last nine as visiting chalk. MTSU no covers last three at home, only 1-3-1 vs. points last five in series.
Marshall, based on team trends.


BOWLING GREEN at NOTRE DAME...Falcs 1-3 vs. spread in 2019 after 11-25 mark past three seasons. BG 0-3 as DD dog in 2019, 4-13 last 17 in role since 2017.
Notre Dame, based on BG negatives.


ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE...Red Wolves 11-5 vs. line last 16 on Belt road (though just 5-5 last ten). GSU just 3-8-1 vs. spread at home since moving into Turner Field/GSU Stadium since 2017.
Arkansas State, based on team trends.


WKU at OLD DOMINION...ODU covered at the two Va schools in Sept and 4-2 last six vs. line since late 2018. If Monarchs chalk note 2-7 mark in role since 2017 (0-1 TY), though they have covered last two in series. If Tops a dog note 5-1-1 mark last seven as visiting dog.
Slight to Western Kentucky, based on team trends.


AUBURN at FLORIDA...Gus 5-0 vs. line TY and has covered in last six since late 2018. Gus also whipped Mullen at MSU the last two times they met in 2016-17.
Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.


UMASS at FIU...Mass 1-6 last 7 as road dog. FIU only 0-4 vs. line out of chute in 2019 after 10-3 mark vs. spread LY.
Slight to FIU, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at ULM...Tigers 2-1-1 vs. line TY, and 5-2 last 7 as visiting chalk. Warhawks 2-9-1 vs. line last 12 at home.
Memphis, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at OHIO STATE...Dantonio 21-9 as dog since 2011 though just 4-4 in role past two years. Spartans 7-2 vs. spread last nine away, though no covers last two vs. Bucks. Ryan Day 6-2 vs. spread with Buckeyes since interim stint LY.
Slight to Michigan State, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at LSU...Orgeron 3-1 vs. line TY, and 2-1 laying DD TY after 1-4 mark in role in 2018. Tigers 1-6 vs. spread last seven hosting non-SEC. Utags 12-4-1 vs. spread since LY (3-1 TY).
Slight to Utah State, based on team trends.


UTSA at UTEP...Roadrunners no covers last three TY, now on 6-18 spread skid since early 2017. Miners 1-9 vs. spread last ten at Sun Bowl. Road team has covered all six meetings since 2013!
Slight to UTSA, based on series trends.


BOISE STATE at UNLV...Sanchez just 6-11 vs. spread last 17 at Sam Boyd Stadium, Broncos 36-18 as visiting chalk since 2009.
Boise State, based on team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

B]303GA SOUTHERN -304 S ALABAMA[/B]
S ALABAMA is 10-29 ATS (-21.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

305TEMPLE -306 E CAROLINA
E CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. winning teams in the last 3 seasons.

307UCF -308 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

309NEW MEXICO -310 SAN JOSE ST
SAN JOSE ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

311S FLORIDA -312 CONNECTICUT
CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) off 2 consecutive road losses since 1992.

311S FLORIDA -312 CONNECTICUT
S FLORIDA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

313BOSTON COLLEGE -314 LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. good offenses (>31 PPG) over the last 2 seasons.

315N CAROLINA -316 GEORGIA TECH
N CAROLINA is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games off home conference loss since 1992.

317TEXAS -318 W VIRGINIA
TEXAS are 28-13 ATS (13.7 Units) vs poor rushing teams (<120 RYG) since 1992.

319PURDUE -320 PENN ST
PENN ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a road win in the last 3 seasons.

321BALL ST -322 N ILLINOIS
N ILLINOIS are 30-15 ATS (13.5 Units) vs bad teams (25-40%) since 1992.

323TULANE -324 ARMY
TULANE is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.

325PITTSBURGH -326 DUKE
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

327BAYLOR -328 KANSAS ST
KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

329MARYLAND -330 RUTGERS
MARYLAND is 23-11 ATS (10.9 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.

331OKLAHOMA ST -332 TEXAS TECH
TEXAS TECH is 41-20 ATS (19 Units) in home games after an ATS loss since 1992.

333KENT ST -334 WISCONSIN
WISCONSIN is 76-43 ATS (28.7 Units) after going under the total since 1992.

335E MICHIGAN -336 C MICHIGAN
E MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after an ATS loss in the last 3 seasons.

337VIRGINIA TECH -338 MIAMI
MIAMI is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

339TROY -340 MISSOURI
TROY is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) vs. winning teams in the last 3 seasons.

341LIBERTY -342 NEW MEXICO ST
NEW MEXICO ST is 18-41 ATS (-27.1 Units) off a home loss since 1992.

343ARIZONA -344 COLORADO
COLORADO is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

345SAN DIEGO ST -346 COLORADO ST
SAN DIEGO ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games when the total is 49.5-56 in the last 3 seasons.

347OREGON ST -348 UCLA
OREGON ST is 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992.

349CALIFORNIA -350 OREGON
OREGON is 43-13 ATS (28.7 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.

351WASHINGTON -352 STANFORD
STANFORD is 43-23 ATS (17.7 Units) after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992.

353TULSA -354 SMU
TULSA is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game since 1992.

355IOWA -356 MICHIGAN
IOWA is 53-33 ATS (16.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.

357ILLINOIS -358 MINNESOTA
ILLINOIS are 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

359RICE -360 UAB
RICE is 72-39 ATS (29.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.

361NORTHWESTERN -362 NEBRASKA
NEBRASKA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 2 conference games over the last 2 seasons.

363GEORGIA -364 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 4-20 ATS (-18 Units) in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992.

365AIR FORCE -366 NAVY
AIR FORCE is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

367W MICHIGAN -368 TOLEDO
TOLEDO is 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992.

369OKLAHOMA -370 KANSAS
KANSAS are 40-68 ATS (-34.8 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.

371OHIO U -372 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.

373TCU -374 IOWA ST
IOWA ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in October games in the last 3 seasons.

375VANDERBILT -376 OLE MISS
VANDERBILT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

377MARSHALL -378 MIDDLE TENN ST
MARSHALL is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

379BOWLING GREEN -380 NOTRE DAME
BOWLING GREEN is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

381ARKANSAS ST -382 GEORGIA ST
GEORGIA ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored in the last 3 seasons.

383W KENTUCKY -384 OLD DOMINION
W KENTUCKY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

385AUBURN -386 FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 43-21 ATS (19.9 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992.

387MASSACHUSETTS -388 FLA INTERNATIONAL
MASSACHUSETTS are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games vs poor rushing def. (>200 RYG) since 1992.

387MASSACHUSETTS -388 FLA INTERNATIONAL
MASSACHUSETTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.

389MEMPHIS -390 LA MONROE
MEMPHIS are 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992.

391MICHIGAN ST -392 OHIO ST
OHIO ST is 61-35 ATS (22.5 Units) vs. good offenses (>31 PPG) since 1992.

393UTAH ST -394 LSU
UTAH ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

395UTSA -396 UTEP
UTSA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 3 seasons.

397BOISE ST -398 UNLV
BOISE ST is 25-7 ATS (17.3 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack

Interesting college football spreads this weekend:

? Oregon State @ UCLA (-5.5)

? Iowa @ Michigan (-3.5)

? Northwestern @ Nebraska (-3.5)

? Air Force (-3) @ Navy

? TCU @ Iowa State (-3.5)

? Auburn (-3) @ Florida

Quote of the Day
?Falling down is part of life; getting back up is living.?
Anonymous

Wednesday?s quiz
Who won/lost the last time the World Series was a sweep?

Tuesday?s quiz
Sam Darnold played his college football at USC.

Monday?s quiz
Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies in their one World Series appearance.

****************************

Wednesday?s Den: NFL stats after four weeks??

13) Best red zone offenses:
Seattle 6.25 ppp, Cowboys 6.08, Ravens 6.07

Worst red zone offenses:
Dolphins 2.67, Bengals 3.00, Raiders 3.62

12) Best offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Ravens 3.76 ppp, Chiefs 3.19, Chargers 2.88

Worst offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.37, Dolphins 0.52, Bucs 0.88

11) Best red zone defenses:
Patriots 2.50, 49ers 2.88, Steelers 3.57, Chiefs 3.76

Worst red zone defenses:
Browns 6.60, Dolphins 6.16, Colts 5.67, Saints 5.57

10) Best defenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
49ers 0.38, Patriots 0.39, Bills 0.77, Bears 0.84

Worst defenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 3.05, Cardinals 3.03, Chiefs 2.67, Falcons 2.56

9) QB?s with most passing yards:
Mahomes KC 1,510, Ryan Atl 1,325, Goff LAR/Rivers LAC 1,254

8) QB?s with most touchdown passes:
10? Brissett-Jackson-Mahomes
9? Prescott-Stafford-Wentz-Winston
8? Ryan-Wilson

7) RB?s with most rushing yards:
McCaffrey 411, Cook 410, Fournette 404, Chubb 398

6) Players with most receiving yards:
KAllen 452, Kupp 388, Godwin 386, Adams 378

6) Teams that scored the most points:
135? Chiefs/Ravens
123? Buccaneers
122? Patriots
117? Rams

5) Offenses with most plays of 20+ yards:
Chiefs 27, Chargers/Ravens 23, Lions 22, Falcons 21

4) Offenses that have gained most yards/game:
Ravens 482.5, Chiefs 474.8, Cowboys 425.2, 49ers 421.0

3) Defenses that allowed fewest yards/game:
Patriots 243.0, Bills 280.8, 49ers 283.3, Panthers 287.5

2) Best net punting average:
Redskins 48.5, Giants 46.8, Cardinals/Saints/Eagles 44.8.

1) Best turnover ratios:
+6? Bears/Patriots
+5? Titans
+4? Packers/Jets/Steelers

Worst turnover ratios:
-7? Dolphins
-5? Falcons/Giants/Broncos/Bengals
-3? Panthers/Rams/Redskins

 

[Cnotes53]

Temple at East Carolina
October 1, 2019
By Joe Nelson

An AAC East contest headlines the Thursday night pairing to open the October college football schedule. Here is a look at Temple and East Carolina, a game featuring one of the lowest totals of the week in a matchup of three-win squads looking for conference win #1.

Temple Owls at East Carolina Pirates
At Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, October 3, (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Temple -11?, Over/Under 46?
Last Meeting: 2018 At Temple (-10?) 49, East Carolina 6

East Carolina was a bowl fixture in the late 1990s through the mid-2000s. Steve Logan went 67-55 over 11 years for the Pirates with five bowl appearances and a successful transition to Conference USA. He resigned after a disappointing 2002 season and the program fell off a cliff with John Thompson going 3-20 over two seasons before being released. Skip Holtz took over and the program was relevant for five seasons before he jumped to South Florida and Ruffin McNeill was able to mostly sustain that success over six years including the final two years in the move to the American. After going 5-7 in 2015, he was fired and history repeated itself with an ugly short-term run for the Pirates under Scottie Montgomery.

The Pirates hope they have found a stable presence for years to come on the sidelines with Mike Houston. Still relatively young at 47, Houston led successful but brief runs at three different programs, most recently going 37-6 over three season at James Madison, including the 2016 FCS Championship which was the only title miss over the past eight seasons for FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. While his offenses ran the option at the Lenoir-Rhyne and The Citadel, he has employed a spread at James Madison and at East Carolina, with hopes of capturing the high-scoring potential his Dukes teams had. There has been good balance so far with the Pirates rushing about 38 times per game and throwing 31 times per game.

An appealing underdog in the season opener, East Carolina lost 34-6 at NC State in a lopsided contest, but the Pirates have quietly won three of the past four games. Two of those wins were over FCS teams as last week?s narrow 24-21 win at Old Dominion was the first FBS win of the season. Against NC State and Navy, East Carolina lost by a combined score 76-16 while out-gained by 236 and 246 yards respectively, though both of those games were on the road.

Holton Ahlers was named the starting quarterback late in the summer and the sophomore that completed only 48 percent of his passes last season, but had 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions has mostly struggled this season. Ahlers has upped his completion rate to 54 percent but already has five interceptions and has lost a half-yard from last season in yards per attempt. East Carolina is running the ball with 867 yards in five games for 4.5 yards per attempt with Ahlers posting 186 yards on the ground and Demetrius Mauney leading the team with 199 rushing yards. Last season, East Carolina rushed for only 3.6 yards per carry as there has been clear improvement.

East Carolina will host South Florida at the end of the month and will head to Connecticut in November, but the rest of the AAC path is difficult with the Pirates likely to be a double-digit underdog in four of the next five games counting this week?s game. Since 2003, East Carolina is 24-21 in the home underdog role including a handful of power five upsets while on a 10-7 ATS run as a double-digit home underdog, even with those numbers deteriorating significantly in the ugly run the past three years.

Temple had a messy off-season after Geoff Collins left the program after two seasons to take over Georgia Tech. The Owls hired Miami defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, but a few weeks later, he was brought back to Miami after Mark Richt retired. Rod Carey was hired after a successful run at Northern Illinois and is now the fifth coach for the program since 2006, not counting Diaz or interim coach Ed Foley.

Temple hasn?t been thought of as one of the top Group of 5 programs often but since 2015, the Owls are 38-20 S/U and 39-19 ATS for records that few programs can match. Temple is 3-1 this season with wins over a pair of major conference teams but losing by 16 against a MAC team, which has some similarities to last season?s erratic start, opening the season with a loss to FCS Villanova before going on to win eight games. Last season?s game was obviously a big one with Collins returning to face his old team and Temple won 24-2 though with only a minimal production edge, but catching huge turnover breaks with a 74-yard defensive score, a goal line fumble recovery, and a 65-yard interception return.

Carey replaced current NC State head coach Dave Doeren at Northern Illinois at the end of the 2012 season, making his head coaching debut in the Orange Bowl. He ultimately went 52-30 in six-plus seasons with the Huskies though going 0-6 in bowl games but with four division titles and two MAC Championships. Carey?s track record promoted running the ball and stopping the run with the Huskies ranking third nationally in per carry run defense last season. So far this season, Temple has held foes to only 133 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry but the offense is led by the passing attack.

Junior quarterback Anthony Russo has thrown 151 times in four games and his season line is inflated by posting 409 yards and four touchdowns vs. FCS Bucknell in the opener. Against FBS competition, Russo has completed just 49 percent of his passes and in those three games he has five interceptions and just six touchdowns and just 6.0 yards per attempt. In fairness, he faced Maryland and Georgia Tech teams in two of those games and ultimately led his team to wins in those games despite the marginal numbers though three interceptions vs. Buffalo were certainly a big factor in the upset loss.

This is the AAC opener for Temple and three difficult games will follow this contest with a challenging West draw of Memphis and SMU in back-to-back weeks before hosting UCF. Temple also plays at Cincinnati late in the season as despite a 3-1 start there will be work to do to get to a bowl game. Last season, Temple played UCF about as well as any of the other American squads in a 52-40 loss in Orlando while the Owls were able to beat Navy, Cincinnati, and Houston as this team shouldn?t be ruled out of the AAC East race either.

There aren?t many negative trends for Temple in recent years and the Owls are 11-3 ATS since 2014 as a road favorite while 27-11 ATS in all road games since 2013. Temple is 5-1 in the last six instances as a double-digit road favorite, though losing at -14 at Buffalo in September.

Series History:
Meeting each of the last five years as AAC foes Temple is 5-0 S/U and 5-0 ATS in this series with every win coming by at least 10 points. Temple won 34-10 in 2017 as a slight favorite in the last trip to Greenville while the teams also met regularly in the late 1980s and early 1990s as fellow Independents. Temple is on an 8-1 ATS run in this series since 1989 and historically 7-5 S/U and 8-3-1 ATS in this series since 1986.

There is also a Sun Belt contest Thursday night to kick off the college football week as Georgia Southern visits South Alabama in a division crossover game. Both teams lost their conference openers last week and sit with just one win each on the season through September.

Georgia Southern Eagles at South Alabama Jaguars
At Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
Time/TV: Thursday, October 3, (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Georgia Southern -10?, Over/Under 45?
Last Meeting: 2018 At Georgia Southern (-12) 48, South Alabama 13

Georgia Southern won 10 games last season and finished just behind Appalachian State and Troy in the Sun Belt East race finishing 6-2. In a 1-3 start, the Eagles haven?t had their typical rushing success so far this season. Losing badly to LSU was certainly forgivable and Georgia Southern nearly had an upset at Minnesota as this squad could still emerge as a winning team. Last week vs. a Louisiana-Lafayette at home, Georgia Southern was soundly out-gained turning back to Shai Werts at quarterback but it was a three-point game into the fourth quarter.

Steve Campbell went 33-15 at FCS Central Arkansas and was considered a great hire by South Alabama, though the team did have mixed success over nine years under Joey Jones, including two bowl trips in six years after making the jump to the FBS level and a huge upset over Mississippi State in 2016. Campbell inherited an inexperienced team and the Jaguars mostly struggled in a 3-9 debut season.

At 1-4, the returns have been no better this season though the Jaguars did give Nebraska a scare in the season opener. The only win came vs. FCS Jacksonville State though the only FBS home game was a difficult draw vs. Memphis. While South Alabama scored late to make a 30-10 game 30-17 last week, they were only minimally out-gained and rushed for 263 yards to offer some promise moving forward.

Series History:
Meeting each of the last five years, Georgia Southern is 5-0 S/U and 5-0 ATS in this series with every win coming by at least 15 points. The past two meetings have both been at home with a 24-9 win in 2016 for Georgia Southern in the last visit to Mobile.

 

[Cnotes53]

UCF at Cincinnati
October 1, 2019
By Matt Blunt

No. 18 Central Florida at Cincinnati
Venue/Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 4 (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: UCF -4 ?, Total 60

Recent Meetings:
2018: Central Florida (-6.5) 38 vs. Cincinnati 13, Under 60 ?
2017: Central Florida (-15) 51 at Cincinnati 23, Over 52 ?
2016: Central Florida (-10.5) 24 vs. Cincinnati 3, Under 51 ?
2015: Cincinnati 52 (-26) 52 vs. Central Florida 7, Under 61

The Conference of Champions is taking this Friday night off, as it's the AAC's turn to shine under the bright Friday night lights. The conference is hoping to showcase it's ?best? team as the 18th ranked UCF Knights travel north to Cincinnati to try and knock off a 3-1 Bearcats program.

Outside of getting waxed by Ohio State, the Bearcats have looked good, winning by double-digits in all three of their wins, and really who has gone up against the Buckeyes so far in 2019 and not gotten waxed. There is a view that a loss to Pitt, as essentially double-digit road chalk, looks much worse on UCF's resume, but with how the Knights bounced back with a no-nonsense win over Connecticut last weekend, UCF knows they can't afford any more slip-ups.

Can the Bearcats play well enough to help one of those slip-ups happen, or will UCF just be on their way to potentially another long winning streak?

UCF cruised to the 56-21 win over Connecticut last weekend, as a 56-0 lead was established before the Knights called it a day and did so early enough to let Connecticut through the back door for an ATS win. But really -42 was a lofty number to cover after the program's first loss in 27 regular season games, and had UCF decided to play the full 60 minutes, the easy ATS win was there.

A thought like that has to be concerning to the rest of the AAC as league play really begins in earnest, because this UCF team just keeps pushing forward, even after dealing with their first setback in years. What that tells me is that it's going to be tough to ever catch UCF in a flat spot, or a look-ahead spot, at least pregame, the rest of the way. They can flush good and bad efforts just as quickly as one another, and while they probably got caught looking ahead to this primetime showcase in the 4th quarter last week as they watched Connecticut stroll through the back door, that happens here and it won't matter given the spread they've got to cover this week.

Hard to take anything away from Cincinnati's effort this year, although I guess you would have preferred to see a bit more fight and potential production against Ohio State. And while they are currently the only Ohio State opponent that didn't score against the Buckeyes this season, their 42-point deficit in the loss isn't the worst margin of defeat for an Ohio State opponent. Even further had they mustered a safety or FG in that game, they'd have the 2nd smallest margin of defeat by an Ohio State foe at just 39 points. That's how impressive Ohio State has been.

Not as much shame in that loss as it may appear for Cincinnati, and UCF, while good, is still not Ohio State. But the Bearcats defense got absolutely gashed on the ground that day (270 yards, 5.9 average), and UCF's attack is on the ground first. The Knights may not be Ohio State, but they recruit a similar caliber of athlete, and that does not bode well for Cincy's defense either. Sure, holding down Marshall, Miami (Ohio) and UCLA ? although UCLA's offense deserves more credit after that Washington State game ? to 14 or fewer points is one thing, doing that to the Knights is going to be near impossible. As a program, UCF hasn't scored fewer than 30 points in a single game since their 2016 Bowl loss to Arkansas State (31-13). That's 31 straight games of putting up 30 or more for UCF. Does this Bearcats offense have enough pop to keep up?

I'm not sure that they do, as even Pittsburgh needed a punt return TD, to win the ball control battle by 11+ minutes, and the turnover battle (2-1) to squeak out a 1-point win in the final minute. That's a lot of things going right for one team at home, and with how UCF came out of the gates last week, you know they've learned their lesson about playing sloppy ball. The focus shifted to this game for UCF in the 4th quarter of last week's win, and I don't believe they fall for the second time in three games.

A clean performance from UCF from start to finish has them winning by 10+, leaving plenty of room for error should the game not turn out so spotless for the Knights under the lights. Cincinnati's interior got whitewashed in that Ohio State game, and UCF should be capable of doing something similar. Really thought this line would be closer to a TD, but I guess that recent loss from UCF has popped their invincibility shield.

The Knights haven't lost three in a row against the number since late in the 2017 season - the one where they won the ?National Championship?. Two of those three games saw them laying 39 points or more and that's what got them ATS-wise, and that's nothing we have to worry about here. Sorry Cincinnati, it will be the second primetime football loss this week for football teams in your city.

Best Bet: UCF -4 ?

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-3 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 6 Upset Alerts
October 2, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Although Ohio State continues to roast me on a skewer this season, last week's underdog selections still managed to come out ahead. Yes, going against the Buckeyes for the third straight week brought a third straight loss, but Boston College and Arkansas managed to stay well within their respective numbers and even put scares in their opponents in terms of the outright decision.

With the way this year has started, a winning week is a winning week, and while there won't be any brash claims about going against Ohio State this week, with Michigan State visiting the Horseshoe, you already know that this will end up being the week that the Buckeyes struggle to cover a number. I've already spent the past two days mentally preparing for it to happen. Even with my ass getting roasted by Ohio State this year, I still believe that going against them this week is a reasonable play to make as well.

But putting an Ohio State fade option in this piece for the 4th straight week directly spits on logic and reason after how the past three weeks have gone. So let's get right to this week's plays and look to build off the first winning week of the year.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-4 SU; 3-2 ATS

Boston College (+6.5) vs Louisville
Only about half of the lined games up on the betting board already have a single-digit point spread posted, and while that may not seem like a lot, when you like a lot of the favorites in the majority of those games, the choice gets narrow for a selection like this. It's why I'm going back to the well with Boston College this week, who do have to deal with a few more negatives this time around being on the road and against a Louisville team off a bye week.

Generally speaking, I'm not a huge fan of going back with the same team in the same underdog role a week after they brought home the dough, and having Louisville be the ones off a bye and at home is mildly concerning. However, BC's style of play in terms of using their ground game to dictate the tempo of the game and ultimately give their team a shot, is much better suited for success as a road underdog as it takes the crowd out of the game too when done successfully.

Sure, BC could get the doors blown off early and then this play looks rather egregious, but that blowout home loss as huge favorites to Kansas looks more and more like a supreme outlier for the 2019 BC Eagles, as they won't be going down easy the rest of the way during ACC play.

Louisville off a loss prior to their bye does set up as a nice bounce back spot for the Cardinals, I'm just not sure if they are good enough to take advantage of it. They weren't able to take advantage of a very bad Florida State defense coming into that game ? at least statistically bad for FSU ? and this Cardinals team has shown in the last 12 months or so that they just don't have the talent on offense to consistently put up strong point totals against above average teams. The 24 points they scored on a statistically suspect FSU defense was the first time Louisville scored 24 or more against a Power 5 opponent since the end of October last season when they hosted Wake Forest. Since then, it's been efforts of 16, 23, 10, 10, 17, and 24 points against ?respectable? opponents, and that's just not good enough to win this game by at least a TD.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
YTD: 0-5 SU; 0-5 ATS

Stanford (+16.5) vs Washington
After quickly bypassing the temptation to put another play against Ohio State in this section, I was torn between two Pac-12 games and ended up settling on backing the team that's at home. Looking to take California (+18) at Oregon was the other potential selection, but for as good as that Cal Bears defense is, a bad game from them and I'm not sure they've got the horses on offense to keep up with the Ducks in terms of covering the spread. Stanford on the other hand, on the farm, with an 1-2 (0-3 ATS) record in Pac-12 play, does give me more hope of potentially hanging around against Washington.

I'm still one of those bettors not sold on Jacob Eason or Washington this year, as a 14-point win against a Trojans team starting a 3rd string QB on the road doesn't exactly do it for me. Even still, both Pac-12 games for Washington this year have been decided by 14 or fewer points, and both of those were up in Washington. Now they are heavier chalk then that for their first conference road game? I'm just not buying it.

Stanford is a shell of the program they were earlier in the decade, but they've made their name in college football this century by showing up at home as big underdogs in these rivalry type games. When Jim Harbaugh was there, it was about covering big numbers and even winning a few outright against powerhouse Oregon teams or the like, and David Shaw has continued that tradition for the most part. Washington brings none of those 'legit' threats to the table in my view, especially not in their first conference road game of the year.

Yes, defensively, the Huskies are good as they've not allowed more than 20 points scored on them all year, but again, their two Pac-12 foes, that faced them up in Washington, held the Huskies offense to 28 points or less in those two outings as well. Failing to put up 30 makes it awfully hard to win by 17 or more, and this number is just too big for Washington right now.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 1-4 ATS

Bowling Green (+45.5) vs Notre Dame
Oddly enough, there were about a handful of games I wrestled with for the last 12 hours or so to fit this part of this piece, but in the end, going against those annoying leprechauns from South Bend at this big of a number ended up making the list. So my apologies to Notre Dame fans and alumni, although you'll still end up with a relatively easy SU win when this week is all and said and done.

But with shout outs to Kent State (+36) vs Wisconsin, Utah State (+28) vs LSU, and even Kansas (+31) vs Oklahoma, who were all the last entrants on the chopping block this week, as all three of their respective opponents in potential look-ahead spots, it was going against Notre Dame that I settled on because they've got the most likely flat spot of them all to deal with on Sunday.

Sure, Wisconsin has Michigan State up next, LSU's got Florida, and Oklahoma's got Texas, all big games in their own right, it's who Notre Dame has recently gone through, and who they've got on deck that puts them in this great fade role.

The Irish are coming off two very tough games against ranked foes in Georgia and Virginia. A 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) record for the Irish in those contests was well earned, and in terms of resume-builders come November, those games should hold up well.

On deck for Notre Dame after this week's cupcake game against Bowling Green, is a home game against USC, followed by a bye week and a trip to Michigan. No matter where those two programs fall in the Top 25 rankings when Notre Dame shares a field with them is irrelevant. Those two contests against USC and Michigan demand attention and respect from the Irish. I don't think Bowling Green will get anywhere near that same level of respect from Notre Dame this week.

Disrespecting your opponent is what gets you in trouble at all levels of sports, but especially in collegiate sports where the point spread can be the great equalizer. With two hard fought games in the rear-view mirror, and two upcoming on the schedule, Notre Dame has got no time or interest in doing anything but looking right through Bowling Green and collecting their W afterwards. There is no need to send a message to anyone by running up the score to risk injury, and who knows if it takes just a 21-28 point lead for the Irish to call off the dogs.

Bowling Green is not a very good team in their own right this year, and they have lost both of their road games by at least 42 points. But neither of those opponents were lined up in such a flat spot like the Irish are here, and a three-game ATS winning streak for Notre Dame has pushed up this number about a score too high for the situation.

 

[Cnotes53]

Iowa finds success in running game
October 1, 2019
By The Associated Press

IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) Iowa's offense sputtered at times over the past few years because it never quite knew what it might get out of its rushing attack.

The 14th-ranked Hawkeyes are soaring this season behind a ground game that appears to have found its way.

Iowa (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) heads into a crucial early showdown with No. 19 Michigan (3-1, 1-1) on the heels of one of its best days running the ball in years.

The Hawkeyes racked up 351 yards on the ground in last week's 48-3 blowout of Middle Tennessee, powering an offense that finished with 644 yards. That total was the most in coach Kirk Ferentz's 21 seasons in charge.

Iowa is averaging 5.18 yards per carry in 2019 - a leap of 1.3 yards from a year ago and 1.4 yards in 2017 - and it hasn't lost a fumble in three games.

''I can't pinpoint one thing. It's a collective effort,'' junior running back Toren Young said. ''The offensive line is doing a great job of blocking. The receivers, tight ends and fullbacks are doing a great job of blocking. I think, as running backs, we are doing a better job of seeing the bigger picture, understanding the concepts.''

Arguably Iowa's biggest priority in the offseason was to fix its rushing attack, a foundational piece of a program that's constantly striving both for balance and to control the clock.

The Hawkeyes were 95th nationally in rushing offense in 2018 and 97th two seasons ago despite running the ball 56 percent of the time during those years.

Despite some upheaval along their offensive line, the Hawkeyes broke through on the ground in September.

Redshirt freshman center Tyler Linderbaum, who switched over from defense during bowl preparation, has blossomed into an anchor for a unit that's getting much more consistent downhill push up. Iowa has even overcome the loss of star tackle Alaric Jackson, who is expected to return this weekend after missing three games with a sprained knee.

Jackson practiced on Tuesday, a promising sign for his availability.

''Everybody is really paying attention to the details, especially in practice. You don't just show up on game day and establish the run,'' quarterback Nate Stanley said.

All that extra space created by the line has led to career-best starts for Young and Mekhi Sargent, also a junior.

Sargent, the starter, is averaging 5.5 yards a carry with a pair of touchdowns. Young has exploded for 7.6 yards an attempt, and he had a career-high 131 yards on just 11 attempts last weekend.

Iowa's 217.5 yards rushing through four games ranks 29th in America, despite the fact that the Hawkeyes are running the ball at nearly the exact same rate, 56.7 percent, as in 2017-18.

''When you have an explosive (play), it does carry over to the next play because, on the next play, you want to capitalize on that,'' Sargent said.

Iowa's success running the ball could wind up being a major problem for Big Blue on Saturday.

Michigan let Wisconsin, which at 230.5 yards a game on 5.15 yards a try has been a near mirror image of the Hawkeyes, rack up 359 in a 35-14 loss two weeks ago.

''They just run the ball very well,'' Michigan defensive tackle Carlo Kemp said. ''They got a really good offensive line and they trust them, and they've got a good set of tailbacks.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Michigan State gears up for tough October
October 1, 2019
By The Associated Press

EAST LANSING, Mich. (AP) Forget about waiting until the stretch run in November. Michigan State will find out right now how it measures up against the Big Ten's top teams.

Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State - all in a row, the first two on the road. That's the October schedule the 25th-ranked Spartans are facing.

First up is No. 4 Ohio State, which has won its last four games by at least 41 points each, including a 48-7 rout of Nebraska last weekend. Some of Mark Dantonio's greatest wins as Michigan State's coach were against the Buckeyes, but the Spartans have managed only nine points total in their last two meetings with Ohio State.

''I think it's a measuring stick. I'm sure with the win comes more opportunities, and you get ready to play the next one as well. We've got two big ones,'' Dantonio said. ''We've known this. We understand this. Then when you do your summer studies and things of that nature, you understand what you're up against when you come to this part of the season.''

Michigan State will at least have an open date between the Wisconsin and Penn State games, but that feels a long way off with the Buckeyes looming. The transition from Urban Meyer to new coach Ryan Day has gone well so far, with Ohio State looking like every bit the juggernaut it usually is.

The Spartans beat Ohio State in 2011, 2013 and 2015 - and those were all pretty special seasons at Michigan State. The Kirk Cousins-led Spartans made the Big Ten title game in 2011, then Michigan State won the conference in 2013, beating Meyer and the Buckeyes for the championship. In 2015, a win at Ohio State vaulted the Spartans to another conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

''Ohio State has been a dominant program in this conference,'' Dantonio said. ''I don't think I'm letting the cat out of the bag here.''

This will be the earliest matchup between Michigan State and Ohio State since 2012, when they played in late September. Then the Spartans will have to face what looks like a formidable Wisconsin team. Michigan State has had its ups and downs already, losing at home to Arizona State but starting Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern and Indiana.

The Northwestern game was an impressive blowout on the road. Against Indiana, Michigan State won 40-31, which was a step forward for the team's much-maligned offense.

''You can see each and every week, we want to get out there on Saturday and prove that we can be better,'' receiver Darrell Stewart said. ''And show different things that we can do.''

There may be no better opportunity than this weekend for the Spartans to prove their worth, on both sides of the ball.

''It's going to be a challenge as we back it up to Columbus, Ohio, but that's part of it. We understand that,'' Dantonio said. ''Again, if you want to be the best, if you want to say you're one of the best defenses in the country, you'd better play well against a great offense as well. That's part of it.''

NOTES: Dantonio talked a bit about RB Connor Heyward's decision to enter the transfer portal. ''I think this is a sign of the times a little bit. I'm always going to take the position that, hey, whatever you think is best for you - if you don't think it's best to be here, then it probably isn't because you're not all in,'' Dantonio said. ''We've got competition at running back. I don't think there's any question about that, that there's been competition there. I think at this point in time we have a No. 1 running back.'' Redshirt freshman Elijah Collins has been receiving the bulk of the carries.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Monte Andrews


A NEW AFFLICTION

A new injury could keep Stanford Cardinal quarterback K.J. Costello off the field for Saturday's game against the Washington Huskies. Costello is dealing with a hand injury that kept him out of last Saturday's game against Oregon State, after he had previously missed time while recovering from a concussion.

Costello has been labeled between questionable and doubtful by Stanford head coach David Shaw, making it likely that Davis Mills will get the start in Costello's place. Mills has completed 62.5 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception so far this season.

The downgrade in quarterback could make a difficult task even tougher for a Cardinal team giving away more than two TDs to the visiting Huskies. Stanford is averaging just 11.5 points in two home games, so we like the Under 17.5 on the team point total.


FROM HERO TO HURT

The hero of Pitt's shocking win over Central Florida might be on the shelf for yet another week. Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett is still recovering from an undisclosed injury that held him out of last week's victory over Delaware, and head coach Pat Narduzzi could only say "I don't know" when asked earlier this week if Pickett would return.

Pickett, who caught the game-winning touchdown pass for Pitt in a 37-34 triumph over ranked UCF, has thrown for 1,102 yards on the season with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Nick Patti will get the start if Pickett can't go.

Duke comes into this one as a 4-point favorite and while Patti fared well in Pickett's absence, the Blue Devils' 38th-ranked pass defense should make his day difficult. And with Pitt struggling to run the ball, we favor the hosts to cover.


JEFFERSON RETURNING

LSU receiver Justin Jefferson might be back on the field against visiting Utah State this weekend. Jefferson left the Tigers' Septemer 21 triumph over Vanderbilt with an ankle injury, but with LSU enjoying a week off following the victory, the junior wide receiver had plenty of time to rest and heal.

He returned to the team's unpadded practice to start the week and is trending toward returning against the Aggies. Jefferson is having a solid season for the Tigers so far, having hauled in 21 passes for 392 yards and five touchdowns to help lead LSU to a perfect 4-0 start.

With LSU getting another weapon back and enjoying home-field advantage against a USU team that ranks outside the Top 100 in passing yards allowed, the Tigers are a great bet to finish above their team total, which sits at around 50 points.


MOD?S SQUAD

Devon Modster has taken over the reins as starting quarterback for the California Golden Bears. Modster will get the start this weekend against the Oregon Ducks in place of Chase Garbers, who suffered an upper-body injury and is reportedly out for the "long term".

While Garbers was having an up-and-down season ? throwing for eight touchdowns against just two interceptions but completing only 59.1 percent of his attempts ? Modster was decidedly less stellar in relief, going 6-of-15 for a paltry 39 yards with an interception and a sack in the loss to Arizona State.

Oregon is one of the most dangerous first-half teams in the league (especially at home, where the Ducks average 24.7 first-half points per game) and Cal will struggle to keep up in hostile territory. We favor Oregon -10 on the first-half spread.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Report - Week 6
October 3, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-2
Indiana 3-1 0-2 3-2 2-3
Iowa 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-2-1
Maryland 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-2
Michigan 3-1 1-1 1-3 3-1
Michigan State 4-1 2-0 2-3 3-2
Minnesota 4-0 1-0 1-2-1 3-1
Nebraska 3-2 1-1 1-4 2-3
Northwestern 1-3 0-2 1-3 1-3
Ohio State 5-0 2-0 4-1 2-2-1
Penn State 4-0 1-0 3-1 2-2
Purdue 1-3 0-1 1-3 3-1
Rutgers 1-3 0-2 1-3 2-2
Wisconsin 4-0 2-0 3-1 2-2

Week 6 Big Ten Conference Matchups
Purdue at Penn State (-28, Total 56)
Iowa at Michigan (-3.5, Total 48)
Maryland (-12.5, Total 56) at Rutgers
Illinois at MInnesota (-14, Total 57)
Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5, Total 49)
Michigan State at Ohio State (-20, Total 49.5)
Non-Conference Matchups
Kent State at Wisconsin (-35.5, Total 59)

Odds Subject to Change

Purdue at No. 12 Penn State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Purdue was hoping starting QB Elijah Sindelar would clear concussion protocol and be ready to go last Saturday in their home game vs Minnesota. Well the Boilers had their wish granted as Sindelar was cleared and got the start on Saturday. However, he only lasted 11 offensive snaps before he left the game with a broken collarbone which will keep him out most if not all of the season. To make matters worse, the Boilermakers #1 offensive weapon, WR Rondale Moore, was injured on the same play. He was taken to the locker room with an apparent leg injury and after the game head coach Jeff Brohm said that Moore would likely miss an extended period of time and is definitely out on Saturday vs PSU. To rub salt in the wound, Purdue went on to lose 38-31 to the Gophers dropping their record to 1-3. Freshman Jack Plummer will now be called upon to lead an offense that has little to no running game to help him out. PU averages just 68 YPG rushing which ranks them dead last in the Big Ten and 129th out of 130 nationally. While the offense looks like they may have some problems now moving forward, the defense hasn?t done much to help out. They?ve allowed 34, 34, and 38 points in their 3 losses and they made Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan look like Peyton Manning on Saturday as he completed 21 of his 22 pass attempts. They now rank last in the Big Ten in total defense, pass defense, and pass efficiency defense.

Penn State simply hadn?t looked all that impressive their previous two games before heading to Maryland last Friday. They were outgained by both Buffalo and Pitt with a drastic time of possession disadvantage in those games ? both wins. We had some concerns as they hit the road for the first time at Maryland. Well saying they put those concerns to rest is an understatement. The Nittany Lions absolutely destroyed the Terps 59-0 outgaining the Terps by a massive 494 yards! Unfortunately for Maryland, they had a rare sellout for their Big Ten opener and many of the 53,000 fans were long gone at halftime with PSU leading 38-0. PSU obviously cashed an easy cover as they were favored by 7 points, however the total was set at 59.5 so with Maryland going scoreless, the game stayed under by a half point! The Nits have been a big play offense and that continued last Friday night with 2 TD?s of 35+ yards and 13 plays of 15 yards or more. The defense did their part holding a Maryland offense that was averaging 537 YPG and 53 PPG to only 128 total yards and not a single point. The Terp offense only pushed inside the Penn State 48-yard line ONCE the entire game. Complete domination by the Nittany Lions who are now 40-2 all time vs Maryland

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: A big move on this game as well. It opened PSU -24 on Sunday afternoon and has climbed to -28 as of this writing. Much of that has to do with Purdue?s injuries as they are banged up in a number of key areas as we mentioned above. These two Big Ten programs have not faced each other since 2016. This is the highest spread ever in this series with the previous high being -21.5. Purdue has struggled vs the Nittany Lions with just a 3-10-1 ATS record dating back to 1997. PSU is 14-2-1 ATS the last 17 times the game after they score 40 or more points.

No. 14 Iowa at No. 19 Michigan (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hawkeyes remained perfect at 4-0 after an easy 48-3 win at home vs Middle Tennessee State last Saturday covering the lofty 24-point spread. The Iowa offense was zoned in on Saturday scoring points on 9 of their 10 possessions, rolling up 644 yards on 80 offensive snaps including 351 yards on the ground. The defense forced the Blue Raiders to punt on 8 of their 9 possessions and they have now allowed a total of 36 points on the year (in 4 games). We have an interesting comparison for Iowa in regards to their upcoming opponent, the Michigan Wolverines. That?s because both teams have now played MTSU & Rutgers this season. Michigan beat the Blue Raiders 40-21 and outgained them by 152 yards. The Hawkeyes outgained Middle Tennessee by 428 yards in their 45-point win. Versus Rutgers, Michigan won by 52 points and outgained the Knights by 322 yards. Iowa beat Rutgers by 30 points and outgained them by 318 yards. It looks like Iowa came out of Saturday?s game without any significant injuries so they should be healthy and rested after having a bye the week before hosting MTSU.

We have to admit we?re kicking ourselves for not using Michigan as a play last Saturday. We strongly considered it but just didn?t know if we could trust the Wolverines as a 4 TD favorite they way they had been playing. In hindsight, if there was ever a game they were going to completely destroy and team and not let up if given the opportunity, it was last week vs Rutgers. They did just that cruising to a 52-0 win which led to the Knights firing their head coach Chris Ash. After hearing all week they weren?t good enough, they weren?t tough enough, they weren?t well coached, after getting handled by Wisconsin the previous Saturday, the Wolverines came out with a chip on their shoulder. After struggling offensively for much of the season, head coach Jim Harbaugh pulled new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis out of the pressbox where he had been the first four games and moved him to the sidelines in hopes of a better connection with him and the offense. It seemed to work as the Wolverines played their best offensive game by far (476 total yards and 52 points), however it was also vs a Rutgers defense that has now allowed 112 points over their last 3 games. We?ll definitely find out if there is an improvement this weekend vs a very good Iowa defense. The Michigan front 7 on defense was under intense heat this week as well after allowing the Badgers to run all over them last week to the tune of 359 yards last week. They tightened that up dramatically this week holding the Knights to 46 yards rushing on 29 carries. Again, it was Rutgers so we?ll find out more about this Michigan team this weekend.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: These two Big Ten teams have not played since 2016. Since 1997, the underdog in this series is a money making 12-2-1 ATS. Dating back to 1980, the Hawkeyes are 17-9-2 ATS vs Michigan. During that same time frame, the Wolverines have covered only THREE times at home vs Iowa (3-9-1 ATS). Since 2002, Michigan has been a home favorite of a TD or less 22 times (all games) ? they are 8-14 ATS in those games and have lost 9 of those games outright.

Maryland at Rutgers (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Here we have a battle of teams that both were blasted last week. These two combined to get outscored 111-0 in their Big Ten match ups Saturday. The Maryland hype after their 2-0 start has quickly ended after in their first big step up type game last Friday at home vs Penn State turned into a 59-0 laugher. The game started on a bad note with Terp QB Jackson throwing an interception on the 5th play from scrimmage that was returned to the Maryland 8-yard line. PSU scored one play later to go up 7-0 just a few minutes into the game. They then scored TD?s on their next 3 possessions to build a 28-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter basically putting an end to this one early. The Terp fans were full of hope after they outscored their first 2 opponents 133-20 and outgained them 1,273-468. That hope has been very much tempered with Maryland getting outscored 79-17 and outgained 1,046-468 in their last 2 contests. The new offense implemented by first year head coach Mike Locksley which looked unstoppable has hit a brick wall. QB Josh Jackson was 36 for 62 in his first two games with 540 yards through the air, 7 TD?s and 1 interception. His last two games he?s completed only 43% of his passes with 248 yard passing, 1 TD and 4 interceptions. It wasn?t just the offense obviously as the Maryland defense did its part allowing 38 first half points and 287 yards passing by PSU QB Clifford in the FIRST HALF which was a Penn State record. After that debacle, the Terps hit the road as nearly a 2 TD favorite.

Just when everyone thought Michigan was headed for a downward spiral they matched up against Rutgers who has a tendency to make teams get well in a hurry. The Wolverines dominated on their way to a 52-0 win holding the Rutgers offense to a paltry average of only 2.1 yards per play. The performance was the last straw for athletic director Pat Hobbs who fired head coach Chris Ash fired following the game. It was the 8th time in their last 30 Big Ten games where Rutgers failed to score a single point. They?ve now been outscored 82-0 in their two Big Ten games this season vs Michigan & Iowa. Ash ends his run 3+ year run at Rutgers with an 8-32 overall record and just a 3-26 mark in Big Ten games. Our word is that this clears the way for Rutgers to potentially hire Greg Schiano back to the school where he coached from 2001 to 2011 before getting hired as the Tampa Bay head coach in 2012. Schiano took over a downtrodden Rutgers program in 2001 and while his overall record was just 68-67, the Knights had winning seasons in 6 of his last 7 seasons in Piscataway. Since he left in 2012, the Scarlet Knights have a record of just 35-56. Tight ends coach Nunzio Campanile, who was coaching at Bergen Catholic HS in New Jersey in 2017, will serve as the interim head coach for the remainder of 2019.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Maryland was favored by 23.5 points at home in this match up last year and went on to an easy 34-7 win. This is the first time in this series that the road team is favored (7 games). Rutgers is 1-6 ATS the last 7 games coming off a game where they were shutout. Since 2005 Maryland has been shutout just 4 times. They are 3-1 ATS the game following going scoreless.

Illinois at Minnesota (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Illini had last week off after taking Nebraska to the wire in a 42-38 loss two weeks ago. That game was much more lopsided in favor of the Huskers than the final score suggested. Despite the tight final score Illinois was outgained 673 to 299 in the game and had only 78 yards passing on just 9 completions. Nebraska let the Illini keep it close with 4 turnovers, 3 of which were turned into Illinois TD?s. The Illini are 2-2 on the season, however their 2 wins have come against Akron and UConn, two teams we have power rated in the bottom 5 nationally. Their losses, both at home, have come against Nebraska and Eastern Michigan by a combined 7 points. Despite playing two of the weakest teams in college football, Illinois still has a negative yardage differential averaging 381 YPG while allowing 411. Coming off the bye, Illinois looks relatively healthy heading into this game

Minnesota moved to 4-0 last week with a 38-31 win at Purdue. It was the Gophers 4th one score game (TD or less) this season ? all wins. They caught some breaks in their win at Purdue, mainly of the Purdue injury fashion. The Boilers starting QB Sindelar and top WR Moore both left the game in the first quarter with injuries and did not return. Minnesota entered the 4th quarter with a 38-17 lead and held on for the 7 point win. It was the first time this season the Gophers did not trail in the 4th quarter. RB Rodney Jones returned from injury to rush for 115 yards and QB Tanner Morgan completed 95% of this passes, yes you read that correctly, with only one incompletion on the day. With that performance Morgan is now completing 73% of his passes on the season (tied for first in the Big 10) and he leads the conference in passing efficiency. This could be considered a revenge game of sorts for Minnesota after they went to Illinois last and were blown out 55-31 which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Robb Smith the following day.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Last year Minnesota was favored by 9.5 on the road in this match up and lost 55-31 allowing a struggling Illinois offense to rack up 646 total yards. That was the Illini?s only win over their final 7 games last year. Minnesota is 15-9 ATS the last 24 meetings with Illinois. The Gophs are just 6-13 ATS the last 19 times they?ve been favored by 14 points or more (all games).

Northwestern at Nebraska (4:00 p.m. ET)
The Cats waltzed into Camp Randall Stadium as 24-point underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset. If it weren?t for 2 defensive scores for Wisconsin, we?d most likely be talking about an upset. Truth be told, Northwestern actually outplayed Wisconsin despite the 24-15 loss. The Badgers looked flat as was to be expected after their big win over Michigan the previous Saturday. The Wildcats actually outgained the Badgers, were +8 first downs and held the potent Wisconsin running game to just 133 yards. Head coach Pat Fitzerald put together and fantastic defensive game plan forcing a Wisconsin team that had punted 10 times the entire season, to punt 9 times in the game. But as we?ve stated before, the problem with Northwestern isn?t their defense, it?s their offense. The 15 point output last Saturday was actually their 2nd highest output of the season and those points came versus a Badger defense that was rated #1 nationally coming into the game. They did almost all of their damage late in the game scoring 12 of their 15 points and putting up 183 of their 255 total yards in the 4th quarter. They did so with their 3rd string QB, Aidan Smith, at the helm as starter Hunter Johnson left the game early in the 4th quarter due to an apparent injury and former co-starter Green was lost for the season a few weeks ago. No update has been provided on his status as of this writing. It may not matter as Smith moved the team much more efficiently accounting for both of Northwestern?s TD?s and we?d have to think Fitzgerald will have to strongly consider going with him even if Johnson is OK to go.

It will be interesting to see how Nebraska responds after falling flat vs Ohio State in a home game that was talked about all offseason and much ballyhooed the week leading up to the contest. It actually was no contest. Ohio State blasted the Huskers 48-7 scoring on all of their first half possessions on the way to a 38-0 halftime lead. The Buckeye defense completely shut down a Nebraska offense that felt they were hitting their stride after scoring a combined 86 points on 1,200 yards in their previous two games. Nebraska?s QB Adrian Martinez, who many considered the top QB in the Big Ten entering the season, was held to just 47 passing yards on only 8 completions. He also threw 3 interceptions in the game. Most of Nebraska?s offense came on the final 2 drives of the game when the result was already decided. They put up 140 of their 231 total yards during those final 2 possessions. The Huskers also experimented a big offensively using the double-wing, triple option offense at times. Head coach Scott Frost said they?ve been spending quite a bit of time in practice on the offense and it?s something you can expect from the Huskers moving forward starting this Saturday when Northwestern comes to town.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: This has been a hotly contested series with 6 of the last 8 meetings being decided by 3 points or less. Each of the last 2 games have gone to overtime with Northwestern winning both. Last year Nebraska led by 10 at Northwestern with less than 2:30 remaining in the game and went onto lose the game 34-31 in OT. Since Nebraska joined the Big 10 in 2011, the road team is 6-1-1 ATS in this series.

No. 25 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The Buckeyes simply continue to destroy their opponents each and every week. Last Saturday they were 17-point favorites at Nebraska and they had that spread buried by halftime leading 38-0. While the offense was fantastic in the 48-7 win topping 500 yards for the fourth consecutive game, it was the defense again that stepped up big vs a Nebraska offense that put up 673 yards a week earlier at Illinois. The OSU defense limited QB Martinez to just 8 completions and 47 yards passing for the entire game and held the Huskers to just 231 total yards. With that effort the Buckeye defense has held every opponent this year to less than 300 yards of total offense. If you take out their end of the half possession when OSU was simply running out the clock, the Buckeyes scored on each of their first 8 offensive possessions vs the Huskers. Following up with last week?s stats that we posted in this report, Ohio State has now outscored their opponents 173-18 in the first half! We took advantage of that last week with a first half wager on OSU -10, an easy winner. They have now had 38 offensive possessions in the first half this year and scored TD?s on 23 of them (over 60%)!

The Spartans (-14) held on to beat Indiana at home last week winning 40-31 failing to pick up the cover. The final score was definitely misleading as the game was tied with less than 6 seconds remaining in the game. Yes you read that correctly. MSU kicked a FG with just 5 seconds left in the game to go up 34-31. Indiana then went into lateral mode on their final play of the game and MSU was able to score a TD on a fumble recovery. The Spartan defense has been in lockdown mode for most of the season but IU was able to exploit them through the air completing 33 passes for 286 yards and 3 TD?s. That was the most pass completions an MSU defense has allowed since their bowl game in 2017. The 31 points and 356 total yards allowed by Michigan State?s defense were both season highs. These two both played Indiana this year with drastically different results. OSU beat the Hoosiers by 41 points and outgained them by almost 250 yards. MSU outgained Indiana by 87 yards last Saturday and while they won by 9, we let you know how that played out. The Spartans now enter a brutal stretch in their schedule playing at Ohio State, at Wisconsin, and hosting Penn State their next three games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The first number that popped up on this game last Sunday afternoon was OSU -17. That lined was pushed all the way to -20 just a short time later. Last year the Buckeyes were favored by 3.5 on the road and that number has swung more than 2 TD?s from that match up which Ohio State won 26-6. MSU has been held to 17 points or fewer in 9 of the last 11 meetings in this series. Since 1980, when the spread in this series is -14 or higher, the underdog has covered 9 of the 12 meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Moves - Week 6
October 3, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 6 Total Moves

The oddsmakers and I have been passing that broomstick back and forth for the past three weeks, as after Week 3's plays saw me on the wrong side of the broom, last week's plays gave me the upper hand once again. That made it two of the past three weeks that I've been on the right side of these plays sweeping the board, and hopefully this week's plays don't mirror Week 3's results.

Michigan State and Northwestern got so much 'under' love all the way until kickoff that the line actually dropped as low as 35 points. So 38 was far from the best number, but thanks to both teams finding the end zone in the final frame, the two teams managed to finish with 41 points and eclipse every number.

UCF and Pitt managed to prove that that early money on the high side of the 'over' was the correct side all along, as even before Pitt scored that final TD to win in basically walk-off fashion, the two teams had combined for 62 points already. The scoring was that high despite the two teams going a combined 9-for-33 on 3rd downs.

Before we break down the key moves, be sure to check out the top Over-Under schools for bettors.

Best OVER Schools

5-0 - Charlotte, SMU

4-0 - LSU

4-1 - Louisiana-Lafayette, Massachusetts, Miami-Ohio, Mississippi State
Best UNDER Schools
4-0 - Tulsa, San Diego State, Old Dominion, Liberty, East Carolina

4-1 - Arizona State, Arkansas, California, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, South Alabama, UCLA, Utah

It's on to Week 6's plays though, as just like every week in college football, there have been plenty of total moves already.

YTD: 6-4 ATS

Week 6 Total move to disagree with:

Maryland/Rutgers from 54 to 56
This play is one you can probably wait a bit on, because it's likely to keep climbing, and based on initial 'over' support, it's not coming back much below 56. That's still not a horrible number to go low on, as we've got two below average teams squaring off here. And while both coming off shutout losses in their last game is something that I can get behind for an 'over' look initially, trusting two bad teams to consistently put up points is a lot like trusting a teenager to come home by curfew. You want to believe they'll do it, every time it's an option, but you know it's only going to happen a couple of times out of every 10.

Maryland's offense, which was the toast of the land through the first two weeks, seem to have gotten 'blueprinted' by Temple's defense. That day the Owls really clamped down on the Terrapins attack, and Penn State went next level on it with two weeks of film study in their brains. Rutgers isn't going to have anywhere near that kind of success defensively, but they are more then capable of doing enough, especially if they continue to hurt themselves with turnovers (four in last two games).

Maryland's defense is going to want to have a bounce back effort after getting steamrolled by the Nittany Lions last week, and this is the type of opponent to to just that. Rutgers has a grand total of 16 points in their last 12 quarters of football, and as much as the situational bounce back off a shutout is there, sometimes you've just got to accept when a bad team is a bad team. Bad teams find different ways to not put up points all the time. The Terrapins may have been rolled by Penn State, but they had kept every other opponent to 20 or less before that, and Rutgers has only scored 20 or more points twice going all the way back to the 2018 season opener - 16 games.

As much as teams like this lure you in some weeks that they'll prove to make better decisions, execute better, and be home on time; chances are, some poor decision will lead into another one, and all of a sudden curfew's long gone. This matchup has had less than 56 points scored in it in each of the past three seasons, and Rutgers put up 13 or fewer in two of those games. Yes, a possible return from QB McLane Carter for Rutgers has sparked some of the love for this move, but he's still a little loose with the football and concussions are tough to have completely go away this soon.

Going against the grain is just another added benefit of a game that still probably needs too much to go right for both sides to clear this week's total.

Week 6 Total move to to agree with:

Oklahoma/Kansas from 66 to 67.5
There hasn't been anyone yet who can slow down this Oklahoma attack again this year, as Jalen Hurts transfer to the program as this offense not missing a beat again. However, with the Red River Rivalry with Texas on deck, this could be a spot where Oklahoma loses a bit of focus late once the win is already established.

A look-ahead like their big game vs Texas would typically have more effect on the point spread result for this game and that may very well be. Yet, I actually think because it's Kansas across the field and the likelihood of Oklahoma being up big in the 2nd half is great, the Sooners defense could easily shut things down defensively as they mentally shift to Texas. And given the Sooners history prior to the Red River Rivalry game, chances are we do see some points.

Oklahoma is on a 7-1 O/U run the last eight years in the game before playing Texas, and that includes a run of five straight 'overs' the past five seasons. Oklahoma sports a 5-3 ATS record during that span so it's not all defensive blowups either, and you just need to look to the Sooners putting up 66 in this spot a year ago to see that. But the average total points for Sooners games the week before Texas clocks in at 71.25 points/game during this eight-year run, and only twice in that span were there fewer than 68 points scored.

Kansas has fallen back down to earth after that huge win against Boston College, as Big 12 play has not treated them well so far with an 0-2 SU and ATS record. They were blasted by TCU last week in getting outgained by nearly 500 yards overall (466), and TCU's offense can look prehistoric compared to what Oklahoma brings. As long as the Sooners are focused for at least the first three quarters, them putting up their share of points here (45+) shouldn't be an issue.

It's the ease off the pedal from Oklahoma's defense that I'm expecting to take this 'over' play to the finish line though, as the Sooners have allowed 30+ points in four of the past five years before the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma opponents have averaged scoring 35.6 points/game themselves during that run, and Kansas likely only needs a bit more then half of that to likely secure an 'over'. That's quite doable if/when Oklahoma shuts things down on defense later in the game, as 70+ points is probably what we see from these two teams this week.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Baylor-Kansas State: 51 to 49
Troy-Missouri: 66.5 to 64.5
Ohio-Buffalo: 54 to 51

Up
Liberty-New Mexico State: 60 to 62
Vanderbilt-Mississippi: 60.5 to 62.5

(Odds Subject to Change)

 

[Cnotes53]

Big 12: TCU takes fresh QB home to face Iowa State
October 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

Some things to watch during Week 6 in the Big 12, the first Saturday with a full slate of conference games:

GAME OF THE WEEK

TCU (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) at Iowa State (2-2, 0-1). A trendy preseason pick to make the Big 12 championship game, the Cyclones lost their league opener. They had a huge fourth-quarter comeback last week at Baylor, only to lose on a field goal in the closing seconds. But Iowa State will try to win its fifth consecutive conference home game, which would be a first in school history. TCU true freshman starting quarterback Max Duggan is from Council Bluffs, Iowa, and was the 2018 Iowa Gatorade player of the year. The Horned Frogs have averaged 503 total yards and 45 points a game in Duggan's two starts, after he played most of their 34-13 win at Big Ten team Purdue. The last two meetings between the Cyclones and Frogs have been decided by a combined 10 points - Iowa State won 14-7 at home two years ago; TCU had a 17-14 home win last year.

BEST MATCHUP

Kansas State's rushing offense against Baylor defense. The Bears (4-0, 1-0) are second in the Big 12 allowing only 102.5 yards rushing per game, and held the last two opponents to a combined 127 yards rushing. The Wildcats (3-1, 0-1), with five senior offensive line starters, average 242 yards rushing per game and lead the league with 60 percent of their offense coming on the ground. K-State has 13 rushing TDs in four games, after only 20 in 12 games last season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

The Big 12 finished non-conference play with a 24-6 record, the .800 winning percentage the best among the Power Five conferences. The Big 12 was 6-4 in games against other P5 teams. ... Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard, the FBS leader with 187.6 yards rushing per game with 10 rushing TDs, has three 200-yard rushing games this season. ... The Cowboys (4-1, 1-1) have won their last five games at Texas Tech (2-2, 0-1). ... Baylor's six-game winning streak is the longest in the Big 12.

LONG SHOT

Kansas has lost its first two Big 12 games under Les Miles since that stunning win at Boston College to end a 48-game, 11-year losing streak in road games against power conference teams. The Jayhawks (2-3, 0-2) are nearly five-touchdown underdogs at home against sixth-ranked Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0). The Sooners have won 21 consecutive true road games, tied with Alabama's streak (1970-75) that is second only to the record 25 in a row by Bud Wilkinson's Sooners from 1953-58.

IMPACT PERFORMER

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has a Big 12-high 15 passing touchdowns, with at least three in every game. He has completed 73 percent of his passes (102 of 140) for 1,237 yards.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big 12 challengers get a shot this week
October 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) Finally, the Big 12 has a full slate of conference games this weekend.

By Sunday, the league should have a pretty good idea of which teams are in the mix with Oklahoma and Texas for spots in the Big 12 championship game in December.

The No. 6 Sooners and No. 11 Longhorns remain the favorites to reach the title game, but they meet in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Oct. 12. The pressure will be on the winner to avoid a second loss that could jeopardize what many presume will be a rematch/replay of 2018.

It takes a deep trek into the Big 12 record book to find a conference title game that didn't have either the Sooners or the Longhorns: It was way back in 1998 when former league member Texas A&M beat Kansas State.

The Big 12 didn't play a championship game from 2011-2016 but in the years before, and since, it has included either Texas or Oklahoma 15 times. The Sooners have made the title game a whopping 10 times. That puts a premium on snagging that second spot. Just who will be in line to possible do that should begin to shake out this week when every game is a conference matchup.

The only matchup of Big 12 unbeatens is Texas (3-1, 1-0) at West Virginia (3-1, 1-0). The Longhorns were off last week after a tough win against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers also had a week off after getting their first conference win for new coach Neal Brown

The Texas offense has been rolling behind quarterback Sam Ehlinger, but the defense has been badly wounded. Texas has been hardest hit in the secondary and Ehlinger may have to carry the Longhorns all season.

Texas coach Tom Herman doesn't want the Longhorns thinking of themselves as league favorites. After beating Oklahoma in the regular season last year, Texas lost two conference games and had to scrap its way into the championship. One of those losses was to West Virginia.

''We're not far enough along in the development of our program to have any sense of enjoying prosperity," Herman said. ''It's unfathomable that anybody at this stage we're in could feel anything resembling comfortability."

Oklahoma State, with tailback Chuba Hubbard, already has a loss to Texas, but the Cowboys have the look of a team that could hang around until the season-ending Bedlam game with Oklahoma on Nov. 30. The Cowboys (4-1, 1-1) face Texas Tech (2-2, 0-1) this week. The Red Raiders have lost two in a row under first-year coach Matt Wells and are missing injured quarterback Alan Bowman.

Iowa State (2-2, 0-1) enjoyed it first preseason ranking in 41 years and the Cyclones were a darkhorse pick for the league championship. A road loss at Baylor has them desperate to avoid an 0-2 league start when they host TCU (3-1, 1-0). The Cyclones rallied from a 20-point deficit last week at Baylor, only to lose on a game-ending field goal.

The calendar suggests it's time for a Cyclones surge. Iowa State has won eight straight in October dating to 2017 and another mid-season run could put them back among the league favorites for the title game.

Baylor (4-0, 1-0) hasn't enjoyed that kind of status since 2015. Last week's win - with a dominant defensive effort over three quarters, then a late drive for the field goal - could be a huge step under third-year coach Matt Rhule. The university certainly likes what it has in him, giving Rhule a contract extension over the weekend through 2027.

Beat Kansas State on Saturday to reach 2-0 in conference play and the Bears will be taken seriously the rest of the way.

''We're playing really hard and we're playing really physical, so you see a lot of good things happening," Rhule said.

Kansas State (3-1, 0-1) had a perfect start under first-year coach Chris Klieman. That included an impressive road win at Mississippi State. Then came a conference-opening loss at Oklahoma State when Hubbard romped for nearly 300 yards. The loss ended a 24-game win streak dating back to 2017 for Klieman, who was at North Dakota State before taking over the Wildcats.

While the rest of the Big 12 field tries to sort itself out, Oklahoma travels to Kansas (2-3, 0-2) while getting ready for next week's matchup with the Longhorns in Dallas. The only concern there for the Sooners and transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts should be getting out of Lawrence without any serious injuries.

 

[Cnotes53]

UCF looking to extend streak at Cincy
October 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

CINCINNATI (AP) A Midwest thunderstorm was the only thing that slowed UCF the last time the Knights came to Cincinnati. Clear skies are forecast when they return with a focus on extending a long streak.

The No. 18 Knights (4-1, 1-0 American Athletic) are looking for their 20th straight league win on Friday night when they face Cincinnati (3-1, 0-0). The Bearcats are aiming to give a respectable performance against the league's two-time defending champion.

It's quite a night for both of them.

''Yes, it's UCF," Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said. ''Yes, it's Friday night. Yes, it's the opening of conference play for us, which makes it more important."

No. 18 UCF has a lot of good moments from its last visit in 2017.

Playing as a ranked team for the first time in four years, the Knights won 51-23 in a game halted after three quarters because of a severe storm. UCF scored every time it had the ball - seven touchdowns and a field goal - while improving to 4-0 for the first time since 1988, when it was in Division II.

The rematch in Orlando last year was lopsided as well. After Cincinnati recovered a fumble for a touchdown, the Knights pulled away to a 38-13 win, giving the Bearcats one of only two losses for the season.

Cool temperatures and clear skies are predicted for their rematch Friday night in Cincinnati.

''It'll be faux fall up there for our guys," coach Josh Heupel said. ''It'll be a great night. Expect an electric atmosphere. It's going to be fun."

Some things to watch at Nippert Stadium:

KEEPING UP

Cincinnati's cornerbacks have struggled to keep up with UCF's receivers. The Knights' overall speed and up-tempo offense have been a problem. Fickell started preparing his players for it during camp. How well they keep up will likely determine the outcome. UCF has scored at least 30 points in 31 consecutive games, the longest such streak in the FBS since 1936. Freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel leads the conference in pass efficiency rating.

''I don't know anybody that's quite the tempo that UCF is, so it's hard to simulate," Fickell said. ''Across the board, it is unique."

LINED UP

The Knights throttled Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder in their lopsided win last season, holding him to 11 of 26 for 127 yards. The Bearcats are coming off a 52-14 win at Marshall that featured four touchdown passes by Ridder, who will be facing a much tougher defensive line this time around. UCF's line was impressive during a 56-21 win over UConn last week.

''Defensively, I was pleased with a lot of the things we did," Heupel said. ''They were disruptive. They were in the backfield both in the run game on an third down in particular, causing havoc on the quarterback."

PRESSURE THE FRESHMAN

UCF expects the Bearcats to try to slow down the run game and put pressure on Gabriel to have a big game. The true freshman has thrown a league-leading 14 touchdown passes.

''They constrict everything, man," Heupel said. ''They take the air out of it. They're going to play press coverage, try to make it difficult to run the football. That's what they did a year ago."

ANOTHER BIG STAGE

The Bearcats played their worst game of last season at UCF. They have another chance to show they've closed the gap in prime time. Fickell has been trying to get his players to relax and enjoy the spotlight. They opened the season by beating UCLA 24-14 in a Thursday night game at Nippert Stadium.

''We keep trying to remind these guys," Fickell said. ''We haven't had these stages - last year against UCF, this year against UCLA. The atmosphere is what you love about college football. You find a way to enjoy it rather than put pressure on yourself, which in turn makes it more difficult to respond."

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GASO at USA 07:30 PM
GASO -10.0
O 45.0

TEM at ECU 08:00 PM
TEM -12.5
U 47.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Davis runs for 157 with a TD, Temple tops E Carolina 27-17
October 3, 2019
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GREENVILLE, N.C. (AP) Re???Mahn Davis rushed for a career-high 157 yards with a touchdown and Temple defeated East Carolina 27-17 on Thursday night.

The true freshman surpassed the 135 yards he had a week earlier in a win over Georgia Tech. He carried the ball 24 times and scored on a 1-yard run in the second quarter that broke a 10-10 tie.

Temple (4-1, 1-0 American Athletic Conference) had its quarterbacks go 27 of 39 for 253 yards. Starter Anthony Russo was 23 of 34 for 208 with a touchdown pass late in the third quarter to push the lead to 14. Branden Mack had nine receptions for 107 yards and Isaiah Wright 9 for 104, including a 7-yard score.

Holton Ahlers was 19 of 39 for 229 yards and two touchdowns, the last coming with 29 seconds left, for the Pirates (3-3, 0-2). CJ Johnson had eight catches for 100 yards with 10 catches of 14 yards to open the scoring and 10 to close it.

Temple leads the series 9-8, having won all six matchups following the formation of the AAC. The game was delayed for about 10 minutes after the lights some of the lights went out with about 3½ minutes remaining.


*******************************


Late TD, FG in OT lifts Georgia Southern past South Alabama
October 3, 2019
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MOBILE, Ala. (AP) Tyler Bass kicked a 37-yard field goal in the second overtime after the Georgia Southern forced a turnover and the Eagles rallied to defeat South Alabama 20-17 on Thursday night.

Bass, who kicked a 46-yard field goal to put Georgia Southern up 10-7 at halftime, missed a 32-yarder on the first possession of overtime. However, Ty Phillips blocked a 45-yard attempt by South Alabama's Frankie Onate to force a second overtime.

On the Jaguars' first play, Ricky Wade Jr., strip-sacked Cephus Johnson, and Raymond Johnson III recovered. The Eagles gained six yards on three running plays before Bass' winner.

The Eagles forced overtime by going 65 yards on eight running plays, chewing up 4-minutes, 4-seconds before scoring on Wesley Kennedy III's 1-yard option pitch with 20 seconds to play.

Georgia Southern (2-3, 1-1 Sun Belt Conference) ran 83 plays and had 388 yards, 310 on the ground, keeping the ball for 40 1/2 minutes. Quarterback Shai Werts was just 9 of 17 for 78 yards but had 102 yards on 20 rushes.

South Alabama (1-5, 0-2) ran just 39 plays for 247 yards and held the ball for 19:22. Johnson was 8 of 15 for 194 yards and two TDs. He had a 75-yard touchdown pass to Kawaan Baker in the first half, and the Jags had just 17 yards of offense other than that. He hit Jalen Tolbert for a 60-yard score in the third quarter and Baker for 43 yards in the fourth to set up Onate's 45-yard field goal for a 17-10 lead. Take away the three big pass plays and South Alabama, which is 0-6 against the Eagles, had 69 yards on offense.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/03/2019......1-3-0...........25.00%..........-11.50


Totals...............1-3-0...........25.00%.........-11.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/03/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............1 - 2..............-6.00..............-17.00


Totals.....................0 - 2.............-11.00..............1 - 2..............-6.00..............-17.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack

Odds to make the Stanley Cup playoffs this season:

? St Louis Blues Yes -$240, Yes +$190

? Chicago Blackhawks No -$210, No +$175

? Washington Capitals Yes -$300, Yes +$240

? Calgary Flames Yes -$220, No -$180

? Florida Panthers Yes -$220, No -$180

? Minnesota Wild No -$260, Yes +$210

Quote of the Day
?It?s kind of like going to recess and they have the first 85 picks.?
Miami OH football coach Chuck Martin, talking about playing Ohio State

Friday?s quiz
In all of MINOR league baseball this season, how many no-hitters were thrown?

Thursday?s quiz
Lions and Cowboys always host NFL games on Thanksgiving Day.

Wednesday?s quiz
Giants beat Detroit in 2012, the last time the World Series was a sweep.

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Friday?s Den: Writeup on 13 other college football games??

Boston College beat Louisville the last two years, 38-20/45-42; favorites are 3-3 SU in last six series games. Eagles lost two of last three visits to Louisville; last two were both decided by 3 points. Under Addazio, BC is 12-4-1 ATS as a road underdog; they lost two of last three games overall. Over last decade, Louisville is 19-32 ATS when laying points at home; they they split first two games, with losses by 18-11 points.

Trap game for North Carolina after an emotional 21-20 loss at Clemson; UNC lost its last three games, last two by total of 4 points. Tar Heels are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Georgia Tech is 16-5 in its last 21 games with UNC, winning 38-28/33-7 the last two years; Tar Heels lost nine of last ten visits to Atlanta (4-5-1 ATS). Tech lost 24-2 to Temple LW; they?re off to a 1-3 start, with a loss to a I-AA team.

Tulane/Army split their last eight meetings; Green Wave won last two meetings, 21-17/34-31. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games; dogs are 6-2 ATS in Tulane?s last eight trips to West Point. Tulane came from behind to beat Houston last game; they?re 3-2 ATS in last five games as a road favorite. Under Monken, Army is 3-4 ATS when getting points at home; they beat three stiffs and lost 24-21 (+22.5) at Michigan.

Underdogs covered last four Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan games; Eagles lost last three visits to CMU, by 12-7-32 points, with an average total of 62.3. Eastern is 3-2 ATS in last five games as a road favorite; they blocked punt for TD with 0:10 left to nip a I-AA team in their last game. CMU is 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a home dog; they threw for 330+ yards in two of their last three games.

Miami won four of last five games with Virginia Tech, winning last two 28-10/38-14; Hokies lost last two trips to Miami, 30-20/28-10. Favorites covered four of last five series games. Tech is 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog; they?re 3-3 in last six games asa double digit underdog. Miami lost its first two games by total of 7 points, then snuck by CMU 17-12 in last game; Hurricanes are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

UCLA won four of last five games with Oregon State, winning last two 41-0/38-24; teams split last four meetings played here. Beavers are 0-3 vs I-A teams, with last two losses by 3 points each; they?re 10-16-1 ATS in last 27 games asa a road underdog. UCLA lost four of first five games and trailed 49-17 in its one win; they gave up 1,782 TY in last three games. Bruins are 8-15 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.

Favorites covered last seven California-Oregon games; Golden Bears lost their last five visits to Eugene (0-5 ATS). Ducks ran ball for 588 yards in last two meetings. Cal was 4-0 but lost at home to ASU LW; Golden Bears have wins at Washington, Ole Miss, are 8-3 as road underdogs under Wilcox. Oregon won its last two I-A games, allowing 6-6 points; Ducks are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.

Home side won seven of last eight Washington-Stanford games; Huskies lost their last five trips to The Farm (1-4 ATS). Washington won its last three games, beating USC LW; under Petersen, Huskies are 10-9 ATS as a road fave- they won 45-19 at BYU in their only road game. Stanford lost three of last four games; over last decade, they?re 5-1 as a home underdog (1-0 this year). Cardinal allowed 330+ PY in three of its last four games.

Underdogs covered 10 of last 13 Toledo-Western Michigan games; Broncos lost four of last five visits to Toledo (4-2 ATS in last six). WMU gave up 103 points in losing its two road games, at Michigan St/Syracuse; under Lester, Broncos are 2-5 as road underdogs. Under Candle, Toledo is 10-7 ATS when a home favorite; they won last two games over Colorado St/BYU, despite giving up a total of 1,149 yards.

Home side won last nine Buffalo-Ohio games; Bobcats lost their last four visits to western NY (0-4 ATS). Ohio Is 0-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 481 TY in all three games; Bobcats are 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.- they gave up 33-45 points in last two games. Buffalo lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14+ points; under Leipold, Bulls are 9-3 ATS when getting points at home.

Home side won last four Ole Miss-Vanderbilt games; Commodores lost 27-16/57-35 in last two visits to Oxford. Favorites covered four of last six series games. Vandy lost three of first four games; they?re 18-14 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog- ?dores lost 42-24 at Purdue in their only road game this year. Ole Miss gave up 1,006 yards in losing its last two games; they gave up 309 PY to a I-AA team. Rebels are 12-10 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.

Western Kentucky (-4) lost 37-34 to Old Dominion LY, their first loss in five games with ODU (3-2 ATS). Hilltoppers won 35-31/55-30 in their two visits to ODU. WKU split its first four games, losing to a I-AA team, running ball for only 58 ypg vs I-A teams- over last 2+ years, they?re 0-5 ATS when laying points on road. ODU is 0-3 vs I-A teams; since moving to I-A, they?re 5-8 ATS when getting points at home.

Tennessee is 0-3 vs I-A teams, losing SEC opener 34-3 at Florida; Vols covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Georgia had LW off after beating Notre Dame; they?re 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite. Underdogs covered five of last seven Georgia-Tennessee games; Dawgs won last two meetings, 38-12/41-0- they?ve won three of last four visits to Knoxville.