Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 26

Matchup Skinny
Edge

NAVY at MEMPHIS ...Mids have played Memphis tough, 3-1 SU and 4-0 vs. line since joining AAC in 2014. Navy 20-10 as visiting dog since 2009, 13-6-1 last 20 as dog overall.
Navy, based on series and team trends.



Friday, Sept. 27

Matchup Skinny
Edge

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Hokies have covered last 2 and won last 3 SU in series. Though Fuente 0-3 vs. line TY and 7-14 last 21 on board. If Cutcliffe a dog note 24-12-1 mark in role since 2013.
Duke, based on team trends.


PENN STATE at MARYLAND...Locksley 2-0 vs. line at home this season, now 7-2 vs. spread last nine as host. But James Franklin has been merciless with three big wins and covers in a row vs. Terps, the last two by combined 104-6 scoreline! Franklin 7-4 as visiting chalk since 2016.
Penn State, based on series trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at AIR FORCE...Spartans are 6-2 last eight as a road dog and 9-3 last 11 as DD dog. Calhoun 4-2 last six as DD chalk though only 6-7 vs. line as host since 2016.
Slight to San Jose State, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at CAL...If Herm a dog note his 6-3 mark in role since joining ASU last year. Cal 1-7-1 last 9 as chalk (0-2 TY), and these teams ?under? a combined 6-2 this season.
Arizona State and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.



Saturday, Sept. 28

Matchup Skinny
Edge

NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN...Cats 14-6-1 as dog since 2016, and NU has covered last ten as Big Ten road dog! Also covered last two vs. Badgers. Wiscy has covered last four since late 2018.
Slight to Northwestern, based on team and recent series trends.


WAKE FOREST at BOSTON COLLEGE...Punishing series, road team has won and covered last four meetings and won outright last five. Clawson 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine away from home. If BC is a dog note 5-1-1 mark last seven at home in role though Addazio just 1-4-1 last six on board since late LY.
Wake Forest, based on series and team trends.


UCONN at UCF...Huskies 3-12 vs. line since LY (1-2 TY). UConn 1-6 as visiting dog since LY and 1-6 last 7 getting 20 or more. Teams haven?t played since 2017 though note UConn had covered 3 of last 4 to that point! Knights have covered last 6 of last 7 and 8 of last 10 reg season games and 9-3 last 12 as DD chalk (4-2 last six laying 20 or more).
UCF, based on team trends.


SMU at SOUTH FLORIDA...Sonny Dykes off to 4-0 SU and spread start in 2019. Charlie Strong 1-9 vs. points last ten at home vs. FBS-level foes.
SMU, based on recent trends.


BUFFALO at MIAMI-OHIO... Miami no covers first four TY, though Chuck Martin has tended to play in streaks (RedHawks had covered last 3 and 8 of last 9 in 2018). UB was 4-0 as visiting chalk LY but dropped first chance in role TY at Liberty.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.


GEORGIA TECH at TEMPLE...Collins game! Not so good thus far for GT, 0-3 vs. line, now 5-13 vs. points dating to the later portion of the Paul Johnson era. Collins was 6-4 as dog at Temple. Carey was just 6-9 as chalk the past two years with NIU before moving to Owls.
Slight to Temple, based on recent trends.


NC STATE at FLORIDA STATE...Taggart just 5-10-1 vs. line with FSU since LY, Noles on 9-17-3 spread skid since 2017. Pack has won SU last two and covered last three in series.
N.C. State, based on team and recent series trends.


IOWA STATE at BAYLOR...ISU has won SU last two meetings and covered 3 of past 4. Matt Campbell 17-8-1 as dog since 2016 with Cyclones. Also 11-3 vs. spread last 14 away from Ames. Rhule 2-4 vs. spread last six as Big 12 host at Waco.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


BYU at TOLEDO...Sitake on 15-7 spread uptick since late 2017. If Cougs are dogs they?re 10-2 on road in role since 2016. Rockets 8-3 vs. spread last 11 at Glass Bowl.
Slight to BYU, if dog, based on team trends.


AKRON at UMASS...Both 0-4 vs. line to start season, UMass now on 4-11 spread skid since early 2018. Zips were 4-3 vs. line away LY before losing first two away in 2019.
Slight to Akron, based on team trends.


RUTGERS at MICHIGAN...Harbaugh now no covers last seven since late 2018, though Mich still 5-3 as Ann Arbor chalk since LY. Harbaugh has beaten Rutgers all four meetings none by fewer than 21 points. Ash 2-5 last seven as visiting dog.
Slight to Michigan, based on series trends.


MINNESOTA at PURDUE...Fleck 0-2-1 vs. line TY, 6-11-1 vs. line in Big Ten since 2017. Home team has won outright last 3 in series. Purdue 1-4 as home chalk, 3-1 as home dog since 2017.
Purdue, especially if dog, based on team trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...Cajuns 7-1-1 vs. line away from Lafayette for Billy Napier (since LY). GSU however 11-5 vs. spread since last season, 6-1 last 7 vs. spread at home.
Slight to ULL, based on team trends.


MIDDLE TENNESSEE at IOWA...Stockstill 7-3 vs. line last ten vs. Power 5. Ferentz 7-2 laying DD since 2017, 13-4-1 vs. spread last 18 on board. Also 5-1 last six vs. line hosting non-Big Ten.
Slight to Iowa, based on team trends.


UNLV at WYOMING...Bohl on 7-1 spread run, Rebs 1-4 vs. points last five on MW road.
Wyoming, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at UTAH...Utes no covers last three TY, 1-6 last seven vs. spread. Leach 13-5 last 18 as dog and has won and covered last two vs. Utes.
Washington State, based on team and series trends.


FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...Old PCAA/Big West battle! Ags 1-8 vs. spread last nine at Las Cruces, 5-14 overall last 19 vs. line. Fresno 13-1-2 vs. line away from home since Tedford arrived in 2017.
Fresno State, based on team trends.


HAWAII at NEVADA...Bows have lost five in a row SU at Reno and failed to cover last three at Mackay Stadium. Rolovich only 4-9 vs. spread last 13 on road. Pack 9-4 vs. spread last 13 at home for Jay Norvell.
Nevada, based on team trends.


STANFORD at OREGON STATE...Tree has won 11 in a row SU vs. Beavs and 4-2 vs. line last six. Stanford was 5-1 vs. line on reg season road LY but has dropped three in a row away from Farm vs. number. Shaw still 8-3 as visiting chalk since 2016. OSU 0-6 as home dog for Smith.
Stanford, based on team and series trends.


INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE...IU 4-9 as dog since 2017 and has lost and failed to cover 5 of last 6 vs. MSU (Hoosiers 1-9 SU last 10 in series). But Spartans just 1-9 vs. spread last ten at East Lansing.
Slight to Michigan State, based on series trends.


CLEMSON at NORTH CAROLINA...Dabo 7-1-1 last nine as chalk away from Death Valley. Clemson 11-1-1 vs. line last 13 vs. ACC. Mack 2-1 as dog in 2019, though Heels just 5-7 as Chapel Hill dog since 2014.
Clemson, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at SOUTH CAROLINA...Stoops 5-1 last six vs. line since late 2018, 10-6 as dog away from Lexington since 2016. UK has also won last 5 SU and covered last 6 vs. Cocks.
Kentucky, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at ALABAMA...Saban has run up the score the past two years on Rebs by combined 128-10! Previously, Tide had dropped 3 straight vs. line in series, losing outright in 2014 & ?15. Ole Miss no covers last four on SEC road. Saban however 2-5 vs. spread since late last season.
Alabama, based on series trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at VANDERBILT...NIU 13-6 as visiting dog since 2013 (1-1 for Hammock this year), Huskies 6-5-1 vs. spread against Power 5 since 2014. Derek Mason however has covered last six hosting FBS non-SEC teams since 2015.
Vanderbilt, based on team trends.


KANSAS at TCU...KU surprising 6-1 vs. spread last seven vs. TCU! Patterson 3-14-1 as Fort Worth chalk since 2016.
Kansas, based on team and series trends.


KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Klieman picking up where Snyder left off as a dog, K-State now 16-5 getting points since 2016 (1-0 Klieman). Snyder had fared well vs. Gundy, covering 7 of last 8 meetings. OSU just 3-6-1 last ten as Big 12 host.
Kansas State, based on team and series trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at AUBURN...Moorhead just 1-2 as dog last season, and MSU just 1-4 vs. points last five on SEC road. Malzahn has won and covered first four this season.
Auburn, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA...Kingsbury was 10-5 as visiting dog past four seasons. Wells only 6-11 as dog last three years with Utags, though his teams are still 11-4-1 vs. spread since 2018. Lincoln Riley 5-2 last seven as Big 12 host. Home team has covered last five in series.
Oklahoma, based on team trends.


FAU at CHARLOTTE...Lane Kiffin has covered first two on road TY after 2-4 spread mark away in 2018. FAU 1-0 as chalk TY but was 1-6-1 in role last season. 49ers on 7-4 spread uptick since mid 2018 and has covered last three vs. Owls.
Charlotte, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at NOTRE DAME...Cavs were 5-1 as dog LY, also 6-2 vs. spread last 8 away from home. Brian Kelly just 3-5 vs. line last 8 at South Bend.
Virginia, based on team trends.


COASTAL CAROLINA at APPALACHIAN STATE...Chants rallying for Chadwell, covering 3 of first 4 after UMass win. But App on 15-4-1 spread run after UNC win (2-1 Drinkwitz) . Road team has covered last two in series.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at MARSHALL...If Cincy a dog, note Fickell was 7-4 in role entering this season before loss at Buckeyes. Though Bearcats just 2-6 vs. points last 8 away from Nippert. If Herd chalk note 4-11 mark in role at home since 2016 (0-2 TY).
Cincinnati, if dog, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at OLD DOMINION...ECU still playing at a sub-33% clip vs. line (11-28-1 since 2016; 1-3 TY) since 2011. Pirates 3-14-1 vs. line away since 2016 (0-2 TY). ODU 6-3 as dog since LY.
Old Dominion, based on ECU negatives.


NEW MEXICO at LIBERTY...Davie supposed to return for this game! Lobos 8-20 last 28 vs. line, and just 4-6 in once-solid dog role since 2017. Flames won 52-43 at Albuquerque LY.
Liberty, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at TROY...Ark State 12-5 vs. points on Belt road since 2015 (though 3-3 last six). Trojans now 13-6-1 last 20 on board. Road team covered last two meetings (2016 & ?17).
Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at LOUISIANA MONROE... USA 4-7 vs. spread last 11 away after UAB loss. But Matt Viator just 5-12 last 17 on board after ISU loss. Home team has won and covered last three meetings.
Slight to ULM, based on series trends.


UTEP at SOUTHERN MISS...USM has covered last three and won last four SU in series by similar scorelines, all wins by 21 or more. Golden Eagles 7-3 last ten as DD chalk.
Southern Miss, based on series trends.


LA TECH at RICE... Tech has won big last five meetings, covering four of those. Skip 7-3 last ten as visiting chalk.
La Tech, based on series trends.


UAB at WESTERN KENTUCKY...UAB covering again, now 20-9-1 vs. spread since 2017 after USA win. WKU 3-6-1 last ten on board since mid 2018 (1-2 for Helton).
UAB, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at UTAH STATE...CSU 2-9 vs. spread last 11 away from Fort Collins though Rams have covered three straight in series. Utags on 12-3-1 spread run since LY (3-0 for Andersen TY).
Slight to Utah State, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE at NEBRASKA...Ryan Day now 5-2 vs. line as OSU HC counting interim LY. Huskers 7-1 last 8 vs. line Big ten, and Frost teams at UCF & Huskers now 7-2 last nine as dog.
Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at NORTH TEXAS...UNT on 2-8 spread skid since mid 2019, but has covered last two. UH was 5-11 as road chalk the past three years.
Slight to North Texas, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Jerry Jones Stadium, Arlington)...Hogs covered this one in 2018 but have lost 7 in a row SU vs. Ags. Porkers 1-5 vs. spread away from home under Morris. Jimbo 13-4 vs. spread with Ags.
Texas A&M, based on team trends.


USC at WASHINGTON...SC 2-7 vs. points last nine away from home. Even with recent wins, Helton just 10-21 last 31 on board. SC was 3-13 last 16 as dog prior to Utah upset. Petersen 2-1 as Seattle chalk TY after subpar 1-5 mark in role last year.
Washington, based on team trends.


UCLA at ARIZONA...Bruins 6-1 SU last seven meetings but have not covered last two. Chip 6-10 vs. line with Bruins, who are 24-42 overall vs. spread since 2014. Sumlin has covered last five vs. FBS foes at Tucson.
Arizona, based on team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday?s game
Underdogs covered all four Navy-Memphis games, with Middies winning three of four- last two were decided by total of four points. Teams split last two meetings here. Navy has played only one I-A game this year, running for 315 yards in a 42-10 win over ECU; over last decade, Navy is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog, 10-7 as a double digit dog. Memphis allowed total of 16 points in winning pair of I-A games; Tigers covered nine of last ten games as a home favorite- they?re 10-4 n last 14 games as a double digit favorite.

Friday?s games
Underdogs covered eight of last 11 Duke-Virginia Tech games; Blue Devils won two of last three visits to Blacksburg, with the two wins by total of five points, but those are Duke?s only wins in last 15 series games. Blue Devils covered five of their last six games as a road underdog; they split pair of I-A games, losing 41-3 to Alabama, winning 41-18 at MTSU. Virginia Tech lost its opener 35-28 at BC, then beat a couple of stiffs, sneaking past a I-AA team 24-17; under Fuente, Hokies are 9-6 ATS when laying points at home.

First road game for Penn State squad that hung on to beat Pitt 17-10 LW, giving up 372 passing yards- they allowed total of 23 points in pair of I-A wins. Last three years, Nittany Lions are 7-4 ATS as a road favorite- they?re 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a Big 14 single digit fave. Maryland crushed Syracuse, but then got upset at Temple; Terrapins are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog- they allowed 607 PY in their two I-A games this year. Since 2011, Maryland is 7-12 ATS as a conference home dog.

San Jose State (+20.5) stunned Arkansas 31-24 LW, throwing for 402 yards; Spartans lost 34-16 at home to Tulsa the week before- they allowed total of 1,026 yards in two I-A games. San Jose is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Air Force lost 30-19 at Boise LW, after upsetting Colorado the week before; Falcons are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-6 ATS in last eight Mountain West games. Air Force ran ball for 531 yards in their two I-A games, but they also threw double digit passes in both games.

Under Herm Edwards, Arizona State covered six of eight games as an underdog; ASU split its last two games, both decided by a FG- they?ve run ball for average of only 92.7 yards/game, and they play a true freshman QB. Sun Devils lost five of last seven games with California, losing six of last seven visits to Berkeley (2-5 ATS). 4-0 Golden Bears are Pac-12?s only unbeaten team, with wins at Washington, Ole Miss; all three of their I-A games were decided by 8 or fewer points- under Wilcox, Cal is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Saturday?s top 13 games
Road team won last five Wake Forest-Boston College games; Deacons won three of last four visits to Beantown. Underdogs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 series games. Wake is off to a 4-0 start, running ball for 423 yards in last two I-A wins; under Clawson, they?re 0-3-1 ATS as a road favorite. BC is +7 in turnovers vs I-A foes; they?ve gained 431+ TY in all three of their I-A tilts, but QB Brown has completed only 53.5% of his passes this year. Eagles are 4-1-1 in last six game as a home underdog.

Georgia Tech gave up 320 RY in a 27-24 loss to a I-AA team that runs the option, after Clemson ran ball for 411 yards against them; Yellow Jackets are 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a road dog, 0-1 this year. Tech is making drastic change away from option attack- it?ll take time. Temple lost as a 14-point road favorite LW in Buffalo, after upsetting Maryland the week before; Owls are 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite. AAC teams are 17-10 ATS in last 27 games vs ACC teams.

NC State beat Florida State 47-28/27-21 the last two years; underdogs are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 series games. Wolfpack is 6-2-1 ATS in their nine visits to Tallahassee. NCS lost its only road game 44-27 at West Virginia- they beat up on two stiffs; under Doeren, they?re 6-9-1 ATS as a road underdog. FSU split its first four games, giving up 33.8 ppg; they allowed 44-24 points in their wins, gave up 410+ TY in all four games. Seminoles are 13-17 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite.

Underdogs covered three of last four Iowa State-Baylor games; Cyclones won last two meetings, 28-14/23-13. ISU lost four of last five visits to Waco; under Campbell, they?re 3-1 ATS as a road favorite- this is their first road game this year. Cyclones outgained rival Iowa by 105 yards but lost 18-17 at home- they crushed UL-Monroe LY. Baylor beat up on three stiffs to start season; QB Brewer is completing 71% of his passes. Under Rhule, they?re 3-2 as a home underdog.

How will Washington State react after giving up 50 points in 2nd half of LW?s 67-63 loss to UCLA (they led 49-17)? Coogs won only road game 31-24 at Houston; Wazzu is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as a road underdog, but they gave up 507 PY to UCLA LW. Utah is coming off a loss at USC LW; over last three years, they?re 9-5 ATS coming off a loss. Utes covered eight of last 11 games as a home favorite. Utah outgained Trojans by 76 yards LW but gave up 368 PY.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 5


Thursday, September 26

Navy @ Memphis

Game 103-104
September 26, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Navy
80.425
Memphis
94.401
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 14
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 10 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-10 1/2); Under


Friday, September 27

Duke @ Virginia Tech

Game 105-106
September 27, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Duke
84.438
Virginia Tech
89.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(-2 1/2); Under

Penn State @ Maryland

Game 107-108
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
103.410
Maryland
99.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 3 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 7
60
Dunkel Pick:
Maryland
(+7); Over

San Jose St @ Air Force

Game 109-110
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
72.915
Air Force
86.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Air Force
by 13
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 19
56
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose St
(+19); Under

Arizona State @ California

Game 111-112
September 27, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
88.196
California
89.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 5
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona State
(+5); Over


Saturday, September 28

Northwestern @ Wisconsin

Game 113-114
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northwestern
84.786
Wisconsin
105.919
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wisconsin
by 21
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 24
45
Dunkel Pick:
Northwestern
(+24); Over

Holy Cross @ Syracuse

Game 205-206
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Holy Cross
51.026
Syracuse
91.089
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Syracuse
by 40
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Syracuse
by 37 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Syracuse
(-37 1/2); Over

Brigham Young @ Toledo

Game 131-132
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
87.312
Toledo
83.983
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 3 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 1 1/2
59
Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(-1 1/2); Over

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma

Game 169-170
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
85.687
Oklahoma
109.780
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 24
76
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 27 1/2
72
Dunkel Pick:
Texas Tech
(+27 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ Miami of Ohio

Game 123-124
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
74.553
Miami of Ohio
78.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami of Ohio
by 4
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Miami of Ohio
(+1 1/2); Over

Rutgers @ Michigan

Game 135-136
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rutgers
73.711
Michigan
94.660
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 21
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 27 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Rutgers
(+27 1/2); Over

Northern Illinois @ Vanderbilt

Game 161-162
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Illinois
74.615
Vanderbilt
82.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vanderbilt
by 8
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vanderbilt
by 6
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vanderbilt
(-6); Over

Central Michigan @ Western Michigan

Game 119-120
September 28, 2019 @

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
64.919
Western Michigan
85.822
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Michigan
by 21
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Michigan
by 17
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Michigan
(-17); Over

Middle Tennessee St @ Iowa

Game 141-142
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Middle Tennessee
75.486
Iowa
103.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa
by 28
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 23
53
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa
(-23); Over

Kansas @ TCU

Game 163-164
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas
89.062
TCU
91.546
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 2 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 16
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas
(+16); Over

Arkansas @ Texas A&M

Game 199-200
September 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas
71.501
Texas A&M
101.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 30 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas A&M
by 23
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(-23); Over

Delaware @ Pittsburgh

Game 207-208
September 28, 2019 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Delaware
69.730
Pittsburgh
92.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 23
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 28
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Delaware
(+28); Over

Wake Forest @ Boston College

Game 115-116
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wake Forest
96.423
Boston College
82.402
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 14
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 6 1/2
69 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(-6 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Purdue

Game 137-138
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
86.506
Purdue
88.892
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Purdue
by 2 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Purdue
(+1); Over

Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte

Game 171-172
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida Atlantic
78.532
Charlotte
75.831
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 2 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charlotte
by 1
65
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+1); Over

USC @ Washington

Game 201-202
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
93.945
Washington
107.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 12 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 10
59
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-10); Under

Mississippi @ Alabama

Game 159-160
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi
79.204
Alabama
120.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 41 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 35 1/2
61
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-35 1/2); Over

Indiana @ Michigan State

Game 153-154
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
84.160
Michigan State
100.214
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 16
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 14
44
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(-14); Under

Akron @ Massachusetts

Game 133-134
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
57.246
Massachusetts
47.910
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Akron
by 9 1/2
77
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Akron
by 6 1/2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(-6 1/2); Over

Clemson @ North Carolina

Game 155-156
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
116.528
North Carolina
94.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 22 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 27
61
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(+27); Under

Georgia Tech @ Temple

Game 125-126
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
76.420
Temple
81.602
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 5
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 9 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Tech
(+9 1/2); Over

Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian St

Game 175-176
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Coastal Carolina
75.257
Appalachian St
94.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 19
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 15 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Appalachian St
(-15 1/2); Over

Virginia @ Notre Dame

Game 173-174
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia
93.090
Notre Dame
101.599
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Notre Dame
by 8 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 12 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia
(+12 1/2); Over

Iowa State @ Baylor

Game 129-130
September 28, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Iowa State
95.307
Baylor
95.574
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
Even
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa State
by 3
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baylor
(+3); Over

SMU @ South Florida

Game 121-122
September 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
90.791
South Florida
75.497
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
SMU
by 15 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 7
61
Dunkel Pick:
SMU
(-7); Under

Towson @ Florida

Game 209-210
September 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Towson
74.816
Florida
104.999
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 30
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 37
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Towson
(+37); Over

Cincinnati @ Marshall

Game 177-178
September 28, 2019 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
91.072
Marshall
83.050
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 8
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3 1/2); Over

Arkansas St @ Troy

Game 183-184
September 28, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
79.347
Troy
80.992
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 7
61
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(+7); Under

East Carolina @ Old Dominion

Game 179-180
September 28, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Carolina
68.278
Old Dominion
69.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Old Dominion
by 1
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Old Dominion
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
East Carolina
(+3); Under

New Mexico @ Liberty

Game 181-182
September 28, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
67.557
Liberty
71.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 4
79
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 7 1/2
71 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+7 1/2); Over

LA-Lafayette @ Georgia Southern

Game 139-140
September 28, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
90.785
Georgia Southern
80.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 10 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(-3 1/2); Under

Connecticut @ Central Florida

Game 117-118
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
55.305
Central Florida
101.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 46
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 43
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-43); Over

Stanford @ Oregon State

Game 151-152
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
89.703
Oregon State
76.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 13
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 4
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(-4); Under

Louisiana Tech @ Rice

Game 189-190
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
80.253
Rice
68.535
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisiana Tech
by 11 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisiana Tech
by 8 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Louisiana Tech
(-8 1/2); Under

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State

Game 165-166
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas State
103.208
Oklahoma State
96.382
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas State
by 7
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 5
60
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas State
(+5); Under

UTEP @ Southern Miss

Game 187-188
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UTEP
53.912
Southern Miss
82.328
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern Miss
by 28 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern Miss
by 26 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(-26 1/2); Over

UAB @ Western Kentucky

Game 191-192
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UAB
78.131
Western Kentucky
68.303
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 10
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UAB
by 2 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(-2 1/2); Under

Miss Valley St @ Auburn

Game 167-168
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miss Valley St
101.205
Auburn
106.294
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 5
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 12
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miss Valley St
(+12); Under

South Alabama @ LA-Monroe

Game 185-186
September 28, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Alabama
59.156
LA-Monroe
68.774
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Monroe
by 9 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Monroe
by 16 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
South Alabama
(+16 1/2); Under

Ohio State @ Nebraska

Game 195-196
September 28, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio State
112.473
Nebraska
98.945
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 13 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 18
67 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nebraska
(+18); Under

Kentucky @ South Carolina

Game 157-158
September 28, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kentucky
95.059
South Carolina
89.543
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(+3); Under

NC State @ Florida State

Game 127-128
September 28, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
85.535
Florida State
84.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 1
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 6
60
Dunkel Pick:
NC State
(+6); Over

Colorado State @ Utah State

Game 193-194
September 28, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
70.694
Utah State
98.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah State
by 27 1/2
75
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah State
by 23 1/2
71 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah State
(-23 1/2); Over

UNLV @ Wyoming

Game 143-144
September 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UNLV
71.661
Wyoming
79.636
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 8
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wyoming
by 10
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UNLV
(+10); Under

Fresno State @ New Mexico St

Game 147-148
September 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
90.014
New Mexico St
59.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fresno State
by 30 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Fresno State
by 17 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
(-17 1/2); Under

Houston @ North Texas

Game 197-198
September 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
82.086
North Texas
80.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 7 1/2
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+7 1/2); Under

Washington St @ Utah

Game 145-146
September 28, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington St
91.306
Utah
92.749
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 5
56
Dunkel Pick:
Washington St
(+5); Under

UCLA @ Arizona

Game 203-204
September 28, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UCLA
81.974
Arizona
91.683
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
72
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-7 1/2); Under

Hawaii @ Nevada

Game 149-150
September 28, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hawaii
72.692
Nevada
77.959
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 5 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(-2); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Navy at Memphis
Joe Nelson

After an exciting finish last Thursday in the AAC West, the division will be in the spotlight again this week to open up the final college football weekend of September. Memphis and Navy played to a one-point game last season before divergent paths the rest of the way and this will be a big division test between still undefeated teams.

Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers
At Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, September 26, (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Memphis -10?, Over/Under 54
Last Meeting: 2018, at Navy (+6?) 22, Memphis 21

With a run of six straight bowl seasons heading into the 2018 season there was little reason to expect that Navy wouldn?t bounce back from an opening week loss at Hawai?i, falling 59-41 last September in the run vs. pass non-conference test. Navy did just that with a 22-21 escape hosting Memphis but that would be the highlight of a stunning 3-10 season for the Midshipmen.

Ken Niumatalolo is 89-58 in his career at Navy since taking over Navy for the 2007 bowl game and since moving to AAC play the squad is 21-12 in conference games including 1-0 this season with a 42-10 win over East Carolina on September 14. Climbing back to the postseason looks realistic for Navy though there are not many soft spots in a deep American Athletic Conference path while non-conference games with Air Force, Notre Dame, and Army remain.

Senior quarterback Malcolm Perry has led the offense in both passing and rushing with 254 passing yards in two games for more than is usually expected from the option attack. Perry saw the field significantly in most games last season and he was the primary quarterback in the Memphis game with 36 rushes for 166 yards as well as a pair of completions. At 5?9? he is certainly among the smallest FBS quarterbacks in the nation.

Memphis started last season 4-4 coming off a 10-win season in 2017. The Tigers would rally for four straight November wins in conference play to claim a second consecutive AAC West title (shared with Tulane and Houston last season), where they lost for a second straight season to UCF in the championship game in Orlando. The Tigers are 29-14 under Mike Norvell who started in 2016, including a 3-0 start this season, but Memphis has not yet won a bowl game in his tenure.

Norvell was a discussed coaching candidate for some major conference openings last off-season and starting this season he notched his first win over Mississippi for the Tigers with a 15-10 opening result. That win will help keep the Tigers in the top Group of 5 bid conversation if they remain perfect even if a banner year for Ole Miss doesn?t look likely. Memphis won?t have to play UCF in the regular season this year but the East draw is difficult with a road game ahead at Temple plus games at South Florida and home against Cincinnati in the season finale as Navy ironically is in the ?West? division despite being among the easternmost programs in the nation.

Memphis has a chance for a great season with junior quarterback Brady White back and off to a productive start while the Tigers have 681 rushing yards in three games. The difference this season for Memphis could be on defense with great returning experience and so far positive early returns with only 40 points allowed in three games. Last year Memphis allowed more than 27 points per game in conference play and nearly 32 points per game overall.

Navy has outrushed foes by nearly 600 yards so far this season but Memphis is one of the few teams that can keep pace with the Midshipmen on the ground with Navy only having a 264-233 edge in rushing in last season?s meeting with Henderson?s big runs leading to 9.7 yards per attempt for the Tigers in that game. Memphis has had at least 177 rushing yards in all three games including putting up 312 in the last contest vs. South Alabama.

Last season:

Navy led 9-7 at halftime getting a touchdown with seven seconds remaining in the half but failing going for two. Memphis took over in the third quarter with a pair of long runs from Darrell Henderson who went for 78 and 59 for scores as the Tigers led 21-9. Perry added his second touchdown run early in the fourth quarter as Navy climbed within five on a short-field score after a fumble.

The Navy defense forced a 3-and-out and the Midshipmen turned in a 13-play 56-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with just over two minutes to go. After Navy missed again on the two-point try, Memphis only needed a late field goal and White led the Tigers to the Navy 34-yard-line before the drive stalled and the Tigers came up short on 4th down. Memphis had a 378-316 edge in yards but a 4-1 deficit in turnovers.

Historical Trends:

-- Navy is 3-1 S/U and 4-0 ATS in this series as division opponents since 2015.

-- Historically few teams have been as good as Navy in the road underdog role with an amazing 84-42-1 ATS mark since 1980 including a 56-23 ATS record since 1994 and a 23-12 ATS mark under Niumatalolo.

-- When getting 10 or more points as a road underdog Navy is 30-11 ATS since 1994 (9-4 under Niumatalolo since 2008), though splitting last season in that role.

-- Under Norvell, Memphis is 20-4 S/U and 14-10 ATS at home including going 6-1 S/U and ATS at home last season.

-- Since 2004 Memphis has performed well as heavy chalk with a 27-14 ATS record when laying 10 or more points with only two S/U upset losses at that high of a price, one of which was the 2015 home meeting with Navy.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt

No. 12 Penn State at Maryland

Venue/Location: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Penn State -6 ? , Total 61 ?

Recent Meetings:
2018: Penn State (-12) 38 vs. Maryland 3, Under 51 ?
2017: Penn State (-23.5) 66 at Maryland 3, Over 57
2016: Penn State (+1) 38 at Maryland 14, Under 55 ?
2015: Penn State (-5.5) 31 at Maryland 30, Over 46 ?
2014: Maryland (+3) 20 at Penn State 19, Under 44

It was nice to connect with the USC Trojans last Friday, as even having another QB go down wasn't enough for a Trojans team that's quit a few times in recent years to do so again. The Pac-12 continues to be the conference where parity within the conference continues to occur, and sadly it's because of that that generally takes any one of their programs out of the national conversation.

This Friday we get another showcase of Pac-12 foes with Arizona State and a ranked California team doing battle, but that's not the only high profile Power 5 conference in action. Duke and Virginia Tech put the ACC up first for the evening, but it's the other contest featuring a ranked squad ? Penn State ? that I want to start with.

The Big 10 gets a piece of the Friday night stage this week, and after Penn State and Maryland both had last week off to prepare for this tilt, we should expect both sides to be rather sharp. For Penn State, it's all about getting back to their efficient ways on offense as tough weather and a tougher Pittsburgh defense had them grinding out a 17-10 home victory the last time they were on the football field. That's a rivalry game for the Nittany Lions that does tend to be much tougher then the point spread usually suggests, and Penn State never sniffed an ATS cover that day.

At the same time, Maryland's offense is looking to rebound after a tough outing against a tough defense themselves, as a 20-17 loss @ Temple was the last time they stepped on a football field. That defeat really let a lot of the air out of a very impressive start for the Terrapins ? they had put up 142 points in their first two games ? and then just couldn't sustain drives against the Owls. The 24% conversion rate on 3rd down (5-for-21) was the biggest issue for Maryland that day, and even their 1-for-6 number on 4th down just showed how desperate things got for that offense.

So this game sets up with two teams off a week of rest, off games where they both scored just 17 points, after they both averaged at least 62 points scored per game in their previous two games this year. Obviously, both found a big step up in competition level to be a challenge offensively, but at the same time, it's easy to figure that won't last, especially after a week off.

Understandably, the 'over' has seen plenty of support in the betting market, out of the gate and continually, as many believe those 17-point efforts by both sides were just a blip on the radar. Maryland's on a 4-1 O/U run at home dating back to last year, and are 6-0 O/U after scoring fewer than 20 points. At the same time, Penn State is on a 7-1 O/U run away from home, 12-4 O/U off a SU win, and 8-3 O/U themselves after scoring fewer than 20 points. Without question the 'over' appears to be the look for this game, but after opening sub-60 at some places, going 'over' 61.5 now with it being the ?public? look can be tough to swallow.


Arizona State at No. 15 California

Venue/Location: Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Cal -5 ?, Total 40

Recent Meetings:
2016 Arizona State (-3.5) 51 vs. California 41, Over 85
2015 California (-4) 48 at Arizona State 46, Over 67

It's always interesting how quickly a 'culture change' can happen at the collegiate level, as both of these schools have changed quite a bit since they last met in September of 2016. You don't need to look any further for proof of that point then the totals posted between then and now, as that meeting in 2016 had the total close at 85 points! It's more than half of that just a few years later.

Cal coach Justin Wilcox has built a ferocious defense fitting of the ?Bear? name, while Herm Edwards has implemented his pro experience at this level to help the Sun Devils be much better on that side of the ball too. A flat '40' is an extremely low total for college football, and just like the Big 10 game on Friday night, a strong majority of the action has come on the high side of things. Just keep in mind, even with that support, the number really hasn't budged since opening and that's the difference.

But it's the side that's more appealing to me, as this Cal team definitely looks to be for real with that defense they've got. There was still some skepticism after they upset the Washington Huskies up in Washington as two-TD underdogs in that that game could have been a lightning in a bottle-type effort, but going on the road to Ole Miss for a 9 am body clock start time and winning there was what convinced me that California is for real this year. It's because of that defense ? who allowed 20 points for the first time in that 28-20 Ole Miss win ? as to why the Golden Bears appear to be legit, and I'm still not sure the market has completely caught up with them.

Herm Edwards brought his own skeptics with him in regards to him succeeding at this level, and even with a 34-31 home loss to Colorado last week, he's 2-0 SU vs Michigan State the last two years, and has brought a level of accountability ? especially on defense ? to this ASU program that they were lacking for years. That being said, there are still too many mistakes that this team makes during a 60-minute football game, and against a defense as good as the one Cal's got, that just can't happen for an underdog.

With current betting percentages showing there is plenty of support for ASU outright in this game, I believe that on this national stage late Friday night, Justin Wilcox and his Cal Golden Bears announce themselves on more of a national level.

Without question there is still plenty of room for growth offensively for Cal going forward, and if even half of that potential growth is realized, together with their defense, this team could be really scary. They aren't a team that's going to win too many 44-41 type games you can get in the Pac-12 yet, but unless they suffer numerous injuries on the defensive side of things, that's not a realistic potential outcome as it is. The total being set as low as it is suggests that this will be a 21-14 type game, and it's hard not to back this California team that's on a 6-1 ATS run in conference play if that's the case.

Best Bet: California -4 ?

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-2 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Monte Andrews


KING STAYING PUT?

It looks like D'Eriq King is staying in Houston, after all. The talented collegiate quarterback was reportedly considering a transfer ? a fact his father shared shortly after it was announced that King would be taking a redshirt for the remainder of the 2019 season.

It appears that King's intention is to return to the Cougars for the 2020 season rather than go somewhere else. It was a surprising decision from King, who had thrown for 663 yards with six touchdowns while running for 312 yards and six scores

The 1-3 Cougars visit North Texas on Saturday night and the line for this one has skyrocketed from Houston -2.5 to North Texas -6. With both King and No. 1 receiver Keith Corbin opting to redshirt, we suggest taking the home team ATS as Houston gets its offense sorted.


SAFETY BANS

The Wisconsin Badgers will be without two of their starting safeties for the first half of Saturday's encounter with the visiting Northwestern Wildcats.

Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson are both out for the opening two quarters after picking up targeting penalties in last week's victory over Michigan. Their absences ? albeit temporary ? are big ones for the Badgers. Burrell has a pair of interceptions and a fumble recovery so far this season, while Pearson has forced two fumbles.

The Wildcats are very much a run-first team, but with Wisconsin's secondary a mess for the opening two quarters, we like the visitors to keep things relatively competitive. Take Northwestern +14 to cover the first-half spread.


ESKRIDGE OUT

One of the top two-way players in the nation will miss the remainder of the 2019 season. Western Michigan DB/WR D'Wayne Eskridge suffered a broken collarbone while hauling in a 43-yard pass in last week's loss to Syracuse.

Eskridge was proficient on both sides of the football for the Broncos, catching three passes for 73 yards while adding 14 tackles and four passes defensed. He's eligible for a redshirt should he desire to return to Western Michigan for a fifth season.

Eskridge's absence puts more strain on a Broncos? pass defense that ranks 75th in yards per game against while allowing opposing QBs to complete 65 percent of their passes. We like rival Central Michigan to cover on the road this weekend.


INJURIES MOUNTING FOR CSU

Add another name to the list of marquee skill players who cold be out of action for Colorado State as the Rams tangle with Utah State on Saturday.

Running back Marvin Kinsey Jr. is considered doubtful after suffering a separated shoulder in last week's setback to Toledo. Kinsey is coming off a career-best 246 rushing yards vs. the Rockets. He joins QB Collin Hill (torn ACL) on the sidelines, while wide receiver Warren Jackson might also miss the game against the Aggies with a possible concussion.

The Rams are already 24-point underdogs at Utah State, and these injuries make the host Aggies a terrific cover play. We also favor Colorado State finishing below its team total, which sits at around 23.5 points.

 

[Cnotes53]

Inside the Stats
September 25, 2019
By Marc Lawrence

Stats don?t lie. People who interpret them do.

Final scores on the scoreboard do not tell the whole story. A deeper dive into the stats on each game does. Here is a review of the 2019 football season from a statistical perspective.

INSIDE OUT STAT WINNERS
A total of 12 FBS teams won games but were outgained in the contest last week.

From top to bottom in total negative yardage they include:

California -92
Auburn -90
Appalachian State -84
UCLA -63
USC -61
Arkansas State -52
Virginia -26
West Virginia -23
Tulane -22
SMU -18
Buffalo -18
Boise State -02

There were six more teams in the NFL that did the same thing.

Saints -250
Giants -115
Lions -86
Bars -56
Jaguars -48
Colts -18

LEAKING OIL
From our statistical database, the following teams on this week?s card are ?leaking oil?.

In rotation order, these are favorites who have been outgained in each of their last three straight games.

NCAA FB
California (vs. Arizona State)
BYU (at Toledo)
Akron (at UMass)
Wyoming (vs. UNLV)
Vanderbilt (vs. Northern Illinois)

NFL
Giants (vs. Redskins)
Steelers (vs. Bengals)

TOUGH AS NAILS
These are college football teams that have that have held more than half of their FBS opponents to a season-low in offensive yards.

Alphabetically, in quantity as opposed to amount of FBS games they played, they include?

Clemson 3 / 4
Kansas 2 / 2
Michigan State 3 / 4
Mississippi State 3 /4
North Carolina 3 /4
Notre Dame 3 / 3
Ohio State 4 / 4
Purdue 2 / 2
Texas A&M 3 / 3
West Virginia 2 / 3
Wisconsin 3 / 3


On the flip side, taking the gas, Massachusetts has allowed season-high yardage in all three of its FBS contests to date.

Back next week with an overview of next week?s games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 5 Upset Alerts
September 25, 2019
By Matt Blunt

It officially became Fall this week, but I've already got my mind on finding winter tires with the best traction around, as these weekly underdog plays just can't get going. There are no excuses for last week's ugliness, as all three underdogs on the list got taken behind the woodshed for a thorough beating, and dragged me with them to share in the pain.

Michigan and Tennessee are two programs that have the athletic departments already starting searches for a new head coach, while going against Ohio State proved once again to be a bad decision. At this point, the confidence going into last week's selections is quite fragile, but down days/weeks/seasons happen in this business if you do it for long enough and you've just got to plow through.

That means it's on to this week's underdog selections, as hopefully things turn around soon.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-3 SU; 2-2 ATS

Boston College (+6.5) vs Wake Forest

Wake Forest finds themselves ranked in the coaches poll this week (24th) as a 4-0 SU start has many believing this team is for real this year. They just missed out on a Top 25 ranking in the AP poll based on votes, but things are about to get very real for the Demon Deacons. Their 4-0 SU record has been built upon the back of beating up on Rice and Elon laying -20 or more, scratching out a 38-35 win at home vs Utah State in the season opener, and narrowly holding on to a 24-18 win against a retooling North Carolina squad. Not all undefeated records are built the same, and while fraudulent is too strong of a word to use, Wake's undefeated mark isn't likely to last long.

The Deacons have their first tough road game this week @ a very good Boston College team who has been lightly flirting with a Top 25 ranking themselves this season. The blowout home loss to Kansas two weeks ago killed that potential relationship in a hurry, but this Boston College team isn't getting quite the respect they deserve at home for this game. They can still run the ball quite effectively, and sandwiched around that no-show vs Kansas has been two solid games defensively where they allowed just 16 points or less in both.

Given that this is the start of the 'prove it' stretch for Wake Forest, with Louisville, Florida State, NC State, @ Virginia Tech, and @ Clemson until the middle of November, I believe getting ahead of the curve here and going against them when their stock is at it's highest isn't a bad option. There is likely going to be a few losses coming in that stretch for the Demon Deacons, and a 4-0 SU start to the year could easily end up sniffing a 7-6 SU year when all is said and done.

And while the visiting team has gone 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in this rivalry the past five years, oddities like that are nothing more then that, as BC, if they are at/near their best, are very live for the outright victory here. Wake is still a team that's got to prove it to me, and with BC on a 12-3-1 ATS run in ACC play, it's time to sell on Wake's stock now while it's at its peak in 2019.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
YTD: 0-4 SU; 0-4 ATS

Nebraska (+17.5) vs Ohio State

Do you believe in the the saying that ?the third time's the charm,? or the one that states ?everything happens in threes.? I'm going with the former, as despite bad results fading Ohio State the past two weeks, this is a lot of chalk to lay on the road against by far the best team I've backed up against them.

There was no potential letdown last week in the 75-5 beating the Buckeyes handed Miami (Ohio), as a 2nd quarter explosion killed that play in a hurry. Allowing just 15 points in their last 12 quarters of play ? two of which came from the offense on a safety ? does speak to how good the Buckeyes defense is this year, but it's not hard to make the case that Nebraska is by far the best team the Buckeyes have seen so far this year, and it's never fun to be a visitor at Memorial Stadium.

These are also the type of games Nebraska went out and brought Scott Frost in for, as a win over a team like Ohio State is one that quickly puts this Cornhuskers team on the national stage the rest of the way. QB Adrian Martinez entered the year on the shortlist of Heisman contenders, so it's not like he can't keep this game in touch for Nebraska the entire way, they've just got to make sure things are tight on defense and they can be the first team this year to really contain this Buckeyes offense.

And while there is no looking past a team like Nebraska, Ohio State does have a huge divisional game with Michigan State on deck. Given how easily things have come for them this year, there still has to be an aura of arrogance among those young, gifted football players in Buckeyes uniforms that believes they can go anywhere and smoke anyone. Obviously, I've been wrong on them already this year, but with Big 10 play ramping up for Ohio State now, it's about to get much tougher for them the rest of the way. And similar to believing Wake Forest's stock is at/near it's peak with their spread, Ohio State appears to be in a similar boat.

So, hopefully going against Ohio State for the third week in a row turns out to be the charm, but based on recent results, Buckeyes fans can't mind an Ohio State opponent showing up in this piece for the third straight week. Just don't let all that confidence manifest itself into arrogance, because that's when these big numbers become too hard to cover. Scott Frost's Cornhuskers put a big scare in Ohio State at the Horseshoe a year ago, and I believe they do the same this season.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-4 ATS

Arkansas (+23) vs Texas A&M

This is about as ideal a situation as you can get in my view for backing a big dog. It's a neutral site game between the Razorbacks and Aggies, Arkansas is coming off an embarrassing outright home loss as -20 favorites to San Jose State, and Texas A&M effectively had their season finished with last week's home loss to Auburn. That's not to say the Aggies were going to be in the National Championship picture, but with Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia (among others) all on their schedule, the opportunities were there and so far they've come up short in the first two. Oh, and by the way, that game against Alabama is up next.

Now there is a bye week for the Aggies to regroup after this contest, but I can't imagine they are too enthused about this week's game after falling short to Auburn last week. QB Kellen Mond continues to get very little (if any) help from a running game, and while one-dimension offenses can work at the collegiate level, against quality foes they do tend to get stymied. Arkansas may not be on the level in terms of talent that the top teams in the country Texas A&M has already faced, but they aren't horrible, and given the potential for this to be a sleepy, deflated type contest for the Aggies knowing what their season likely entails, and how motivated they will be to spend two weeks preparing for trying to knock off Alabama, do you really think the Aggies will be at their best here?

I sure don't, and with the value of Arkansas' stock at an all-time low this year after losing outright as 20-point favorites last week, it's the Razorbacks who are a program that should be bought up in this spot. Beating Texas A&M would still be a huge win for this Razorbacks program and they probably couldn't catch the Aggies in a better spot; sandwiched between Auburn and Alabama, and with two losses already on their resume to eliminate them from their loftiest of big picture goals in 2019.

The past two years this game has been decided by seven points or less, and three of the last five years have needed OT to decide a winner. Arkansas may not end up winning this game outright, but I'd be surprised to see them lose by more then 14 points in this spot.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NAVY at MEM 08:00 PM

MEM -11.0

U 54.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Memphis remains undefeated with a 35-23 win over Navy
September 26, 2019
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MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) Brady White threw for 196 yards and three touchdowns Thursday night as Memphis used big plays to defeat Navy 35-23.

Kenneth Gainwell rushed for 104 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown on the Tigers opening play from scrimmage as Memphis (4-0, 1-0 American Athletic Conference) knocked Navy from the unbeaten ranks.

Malcolm Perry led the Midshipmen (2-1, 1-1) with 82 yards passing and 91 yards rushing. He ran for two touchdowns and threw for another. Keoni Makekau rushed for 101 yards for Navy.

The game was a contrast in styles with Navy grinding out yards and maintaining possession, while Memphis capitalized on big plays. The Tigers scored on long runs, a 99-yard kickoff return by Gabriel Rogers and the trio of touchdown passes from White, who was booed by Tigers fans early in the second half.

After Navy took a 20-7 lead, Memphis scored three unanswered touchdowns to pull away in the second half.

During the first half, the Memphis defense, which entered the game allowing opponents an average of 226 yard, was mystified by Navy's triple option. The Midshipmen grabbed chunks of yards in the rushing game, while Perry kept the Tiger defense off balance with occasional passes, including a 17-yarde scoring toss to Chance Warren for an early lead.

It was the Navy defense that initially was living up to its billing, stifling the Memphis offense. Even when Memphis reached the red zone, a fumble stalled the drive. Penalties and a missed field goal only contributed to the Memphis woes as the Tigers collected only 98 yards of offense, including Gainwell's opening burst.

By the early stages of the second half, the Tiger faithful were booing White. Not long after that, Memphis put its offense together and the Tiger defense started to stymie the Midshipmen offense holding Navy to 81 yards of offense in the second half

TAKEAWAY

Navy: As expected, Navy controlled the ball and dominated time of possession at 38:39, and while it was successful in the first half, the Memphis defense adjusted in the second half. Meanwhile, the Navy defense that had been successful the first two games, continued to give up big plays at key times.

Memphis: The Tigers defense looked baffled in the first half, but adjusted to better control Perry's mastery at handling the ball. Quarterback Brady White managed to shut out the boos from Memphis fans early in the second half and bring the Tigers back for the victory.

UP NEXT

Navy: Home against Air Force on Oct. 5.

Memphis: Travels to Louisiana Monroe for a non-conference game on Oct. 5.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/26/2019.........1-1-0.....50.00%.......-0.50
09/21/2019......30-38-1....44.12%.......-59.00
09/20/2019.........5-1-0.....83.33%......+19.50
09/19/2019.........0-2-0.......0.00%.......-11.00
09/14/2019......28-24-1.....54.00%.......+8.00
09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%.......-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%........-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.........-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%.......+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%...... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%...... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%...... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%....... -3.00

Totals...........125-151-4...... 45.28%..... -205.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/26/2019............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1.................-5.50..............-0.50
09/21/2019............13 - 20..........-45.00............10 - 6..............+17.00............-28.00
09/20/2019............1 - 1..............-0.50..............2 - 0...............+10.00............+9.50
09/19/2019............0 - 1..............-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.00
09/14/2019...........16 - 7.............+41.50............5 - 6................-8.00.............+33.50
09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................51 - 83...........-100.50..........41 - 42.............-26.00.............-126.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Report - Week 5
September 26, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 2-2 0-1 2-2 2-2

Indiana 3-1 0-1 2-2 1-3

Iowa 3-0 1-0 1-2 1-2

Maryland 2-1 0-0 2-1 2-1

Michigan 2-1 1-0 0-3 2-1

Michigan State 3-1 1-0 2-2 2-2

Minnesota 3-0 0-0 0-2-1 2-1

Nebraska 3-1 1-0 1-3 2-2

Northwestern 1-2 0-0 0-3 1-2

Ohio State 4-0 1-0 3-1 2-1-1

Penn State 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1

Purdue 1-2 0-0 1-2 2-1

Rutgers 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2

Wisconsin 3-0 0-0 3-0 2-1

Week 5 Big Ten Matchups

Penn State (-6.5, Total 61.5) at Maryland

Northwestern at Wisconsin (-24.5, Total 47)

Middle Tennessee at Iowa (-23, Total 52.5)

Rutgers at Michigan (-27.5, Total 49)

Indiana at Michigan State (-14, Total 44.5)

Minnesota (-1.5, Total 55) at Purdue

Ohio State (-17, Total 66.5) at Nebraska


Friday - Penn State at Maryland (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Both of these teams had last week off to get ready for their Big Ten opener. Two weeks ago Penn State (-17) played host to in-state rival Pitt in a game that went to the wire with the Nittany Lions winning 17-10. The game ended with the Panthers threatening to score on the PSU 26-yard line. Pitt outgained the Lions by 17 yards and it was actually the 2nd consecutive game that PSU has been outgained. Buffalo outgained them a week earlier despite getting beat 45-13. After scoring 124 points in their first 2 games Penn State was held to just 17 by the Panther defense. That close win, non-cover, isn?t looking all that bad for Penn State after Pittsburgh turned around last week and upset UCF ending the Knights 27-game regular season winning streak. Since beating Idaho 79-7 in their opener, PSU has been outgained by 87 yards, have 11 fewer first downs and have a 34:00 minute time of possession disadvantage their last 2 games combined, both wins. The offense has relied on big plays so far this season as they already have 9 TD?s of more than 20 yards. Speaking of big plays, QB Sean Clifford is averaging almost 18 yards per completion but needs to improve on his accuracy (58% completion rate).

To say Maryland got off to a fast start this season is an understatement. They outscored their first two opponents (Howard & Syracuse) 142-20. The oddsmakers made the Terps a road favorite two weeks ago and they were upset by Temple 20-17. After their up tempo offense averaged 636 YPG and 8.0 yards per play in their first two games, the Owls were able to limit Maryland?s offense to just 340 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. They had opportunities to put more points on the board but were stopped twice on downs at the Temple 1-yard line and also missed a short field goal attempt. One of those blown chance came with just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game and the Terps down 20-17 at the Temple 4-yard line. They chose to hand the ball off to their standout RB Anthony McFarland all 4 times and he failed to get into the endzone getting stopped on 4th down at the 1-yard line as Temple held on for the 3 point win. The Owls then turned around last week and lost @ Buffalo as a 14-point favorite. Head coach Mike Locksley was not pleased with the performance of his offensive line as the Owls held Maryland to just 3.5 YPC and QB Josh Jackson was sacked 4 times. That offensive line lost their most experienced member in the loss as starting right guard Terrance Davis was injured and will be out 4 to 6 weeks.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Penn State has won the last 3 meetings by an average score of 47-7. Last year the Nittany Lions were 12-point favorites at home vs Maryland the crushed the Terps 38-3 and outgained them by 306 yards. Historically PSU is 15-1-1 SU (8-8-1 ATS) vs Maryland with their lone loss coming in 2014.

Northwestern at Wisconsin (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcat?s offense simply can?t get any traction early in the season. They are dead last in the Big Ten in scoring (15 PPG), total offense (305 YPG), and efficiency (4.2 YPP). They lost at home to Michigan State last Saturday 31-10 and their lone TD came when the game was out of reach with just over 2:00 minutes remaining. Their lone successful offensive performance was against a bad UNLV defense (ranked 92nd nationally) where they scored 30 points and had over 400 yards of offense. In their other 2 games vs Stanford and Michigan State they?ve scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD?s. While MSU?s defense is very good, the fact that Northwestern was only able to score 7 points vs a Stanford defense that has since allowed 111 points in 3 games (37 PPG) is concerning. QB play continues to be a problem as starter Hunter Johnson and back up Aidan Smith combined to complete just 17 passes but threw 4 interceptions. Johnson his now completing under 50% of his attempts on the year with just 1 TD and 4 interceptions. The offense doesn?t get a reprieve this week as they face a Wisconsin defense that has allowed just 14 points in 3 games and leads the nation in total defense giving up only 171 YPG which is a full 50 yards less than the 2nd best defense in the country (Ohio State).

Can?t say we saw that coming. Wisconsin entered Saturday?s big match up with Michigan as a 3 to 3.5 point favorite and dominated the Wolverines on their way to a 35-14 win. The game wasn?t really that close as the Badgers jumped out to a 35-0 lead before Michigan was able to score a few meaningless TD?s in the 2nd half. RB Jonathan Taylor ripped through the Wolverine defense for 203 rushing yards on 23 carries (8.8 YPC). Taylor did his damage while only playing about half of the game as he sat out much of the 2nd quarter with cramps and then watch most of the 4th quarter from the sidelines with the game out of reach. QB Jack Coan was an efficient 13 of 16 through the air as the offense scored TD?s on 4 of their 6 first half possessions. The defense remains #1 in the country in both scoring defense and total defense. They gave up their first points of the year but those didn?t come until the 2nd half with the Badgers already holding a huge lead. They held Michigan to 0 for 11 on 3rd down and now for the season, Wisconsin has limited their opponents to 4 of 39 on 3rd down! They will be short handed in the secondary for the first half on Saturday as both starting safeties (Pearson & Burrell) were ejected in the 2nd half on targeting calls. That means they miss the first half of this game and they already lost starting safety Scott Nelson for the season in their previous game. This could be a letdown spot for Wisconsin after their big win, however it may not matter facing a Northwestern offense that is struggling to say the least.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Cats come into this game 0-3 ATS while the Badgers are 3-0 ATS. The underdog in Northwestern games is now 14-4 ATS dating back to last season. Wisconsin is just 10-19 ATS their last 29 meetings with Northwestern. These two Big 10 rivals have met 33 times since 1980 and Wisconsin has been the favorite in 32 of those games. Northwestern has upset the Badgers in 3 of the last 5 meetings including last year when Wisconsin was favored by 4.5 points and lost 31-17. Believe it or not, Northwestern had won 15 of their previous 16 Big Ten regular season games entering last week.

Middle Tennessee at Iowa (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The lone non-conference match this week is Middle Tennessee State heading to Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 and had last week off coming off their big 18-17 win @ arch rival Iowa State. It was a game in which the Hawkeyes trailed 14-6 late in the 3rd quarter and rallied for the 1 point win. Iowa was outgained by 105 yards in the game. While the Iowa offense has been OK (10th in the Big 10 in scoring) the defense has been very good allowing just 31 points in 3 games. On Saturday they will be facing a Middle Tennessee State defense that has given up 107 points in their 3 games this season. The Iowa defense has been very good at getting off the field on 3rd & 4th down with teams converting just 10 of their 37 opportunities (27%). The Blue Raider defense, on the other hand, has really had problems stopping teams on 3rd & 4th down allowing opponents to convert on 23 of their 48 opportunities this year (48%). Iowa has multiple injuries in their defensive backfield with 4 key members (2 starters) unable to play in their previous game vs ISU. They hope to have some of those players back for this game or next week @ Michigan. MTSU comes in with a 1-2 record beating Tennessee State with losses to Duke & Michigan by 23 and 19 points respectively. The Blue Raiders has last week off as well.

Rutgers at Michigan (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Rutgers just keeps being Rutgers. That means another loss this time at home to Boston College. The Eagles took to the road as a 7.5 point favorite and topped Rutgers 30-16. The Knights held the lead at 10-7 for about 5:00 minutes of game time and that was it. They trailed the rest of the game. They did cut the lead to 24-16 early in the 4th quarter but BC went on an 18 play TD drive on their next possession to put the game away. After opening the season with a win over UMass, Rutgers has since been outscored 60-16 in their last 2 games vs Iowa and BC. The running game has been non-existent the past 2 games with just 78 & 76 yards on the ground respectively. That puts enormous pressure on the Rutgers QB?s to play well which simply hasn?t happened very often over the last year plus as they sit with a record of 2-13 their last 15 games. However, last week they did get some solid production out of their signal caller. The starter for the first two games, McLane Carter, was out with a concussion so his back up Art Sitkowski got the start. Sitkowski is experienced as he started most of last season but had horrible numbers (49% completions, 4 TD?s, and 18 interceptions). On Saturday he played easily the best game of his career completing 21 of 31 for over 300 yards and a TD. Head coach Chris Ash has already said Sitkowski will get the start again on Saturday @ Michigan.

We?ll see what this Michigan team is made of after getting pushed all over the field last week @ Wisconsin. The Badgers won 35-14 and held advantages of +10 first downs, +188 total yards, +319 rushing yards, and +22:00 minutes in time of possession. Michigan loves to establish their ground game and it simply didn?t happen as they carried the ball just 15 times compared to 45 pass attempts. Part of that was because they quickly got behind and were staring at a 28-0 halftime deficit. The Wolverines were also banged up at RB including starting freshman Zach Charbonnet who carried the ball just twice after 41 carries in his first two games. The QB position is also now in question as starter Shea Patterson was banged around consistently and did not start the 2nd half as he was be evaluated for an injury. His back up Dylan McCaffrey came in and sustained a concussion and it looks like he will not be available on Saturday. We expect Patterson to start the game. As we?ve stated a few times in this column, new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis offense is not going well thus far. His fast paced scheme was only able to run 60 plays last week because they only had the ball for 19:00 minutes. Defensively they were pushed around up front allowing a ridiculous 359 yards rushing after allowing only one opponent to top 20o on the ground last year, which was Florida in their bowl game. Michigan has a chance to get back on track in a big way this weekend vs a bad Rutgers team. We?ll see when their emotional state is here after their disappointing start to the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Rutgers topped Michigan 26-24 in 2014 their first year in the Big 10. Since then Michigan is 4-0 (2-2 ATS) beating the Knights by an average score of 51-9. Last year the Wolverines were a massive 36.5 point favorite @ Rutgers and won 42-7 (non-cover) outgained the Knights by 200 yards. The Wolverines are just 2-12 ATS the last 14 times they?ve been a favorite of 21 or more.

Indiana at Michigan State (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Hoosiers got back on track last week after getting destroyed by Ohio State a week earlier. What better way to rebound from a 51-10 throttling at the hands of the Buckeyes than to face the hapless UConn Huskies. IU rolled up a 38-3 win last Saturday outgaining the Huskies by 285 yards. They did so without starting QB Michael Penix who sat out for the 2nd straight game with a hand injury. His replacement and last year?s starter, Peyton Ramsey, was a near perfect 23 of 27 for 247 yards and 3 TD?s. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has already said that who starts at QB will be a game time decision. One player who definitely won?t be playing on Saturday is starting LT Coy Cronk who was a 4 year starter for the Hoosiers. Cronk injured his knee last weekend and is now out for the season. That?s not an ideal development vs an MSU defense that is averaging almost 4 sacks per game (4th in the nation). Indiana comes into this game with a 3-1 record, however their 3 wins have come against teams that have a combined 2-9 record (Ball State, Eastern Illinois, & UConn).

MSU is off an impressive 31-10 win over Northwestern getting the easy cover as a 9-point favorite. As we?ve stated numerous times in this report, while their defense is one of the best in the nation, their offense is not. While they did score 31 points on Saturday, they did so while gaining just 337 total yards on only 4.8 yards per play. What Michigan State did do well was cash in when they were in the redzone. Their defense and special teams set them up to succeed last Saturday and the Spartans were a perfect 5 for 5 in the redzone with 4 TD?s and a field goal. The Wildcats did have some success on the ground vs this MSU defense putting up 139 yards rushing. While that may not seem like a big deal, it was the most rushing yards the Spartans have allowed since their game vs Michigan last October. Sparty is not going to change anytime soon. They?ll win games with their defense and their offense will never be special. Just don?t mess up and give the ball away offensively, and they?ll be tough to beat. This is a huge home game for MSU as they travel to Ohio State and to Wisconsin the following two weeks.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: MSU has absolutely dominated this series since the mid 90?s. Since 1995, the Spartans are 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS vs the Hoosiers. Sparty is 7-0 both SU & ATS the last 7 times they?ve played host to the Hoosiers. As a favorite of more than 14 points in this series, MSU is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS. Last year the Spartans won @ Indiana 35-21 as 5.5 point favorites

Minnesota at Purdue (ESPN2, Minnesota at Purdue ET)
Both of these teams had byes last week so no advantage on that end. Minnesota comes in with a shaky 3-0 record with their wins coming against South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern. They topped those 3 teams by a combined 13 points and didn?t cover any of those games. They trailed South Dakota State with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and were behind in the other two with less than 1:00 minute remaining yet they are still undefeated. In their most recent game two weeks ago the Gophers scored with 13 seconds remaining to top Georgia Southern 38-35. However they did dominate the stats outgaining the Eagles 382-198 but continued to struggle on the ground averaging just 1.9 YPC vs GSU. They are now 13th in the Big Ten averaging only 2.6 YPC on the season ahead of only Purdue (2.1 YPC), their opponent on Saturday. Cluster injuries at the RB position most likely have a lot to do with their lack of success as the Gophs were down to their 5th string tailback in the 4th quarter of their game two weeks ago. It looks like the week off helped their injury situation as 3 of their top 4 RB?s look like they will return including Rodney Smith, Mohamed Ibrahim, and Shannon Brooks, who has yet to play this season. Defensively Minnesota is allowing 29 PPG which ranks them 13th in the league. Who?s the worst scoring defense in the Big 10? Purdue who allows 30 PPG. We could be in for a high scoring game here.

Purdue steps into this game with just a 1-2 record losing to Nevada & TCU while topping Vanderbilt. Their most recent game two weeks ago they were dominated at home by TCU losing by 21 points and getting outgained by over 200 yards. We can put an asterisk by that loss as starting QB Elijah Sindelar was not able to play due to a concussion. His backup is freshman Jack Plummer who got the start and took the first snap of his career vs the Horned Frogs. It was a tough spot for Plummer making his first start for a team that relies so heavily on their QB. That?s because the Boilers run the ball less often than anyone in the Big 10 (24 carries per game) and do it less successfully than anyone on the conference (50 YPG on 2.1 YPC). Against TCU they rushed for only 25 yards on 23 carries and when you have an inexperienced freshman QB at the helm, that simply won?t get it done. As of this writing, Sindelar had not yet passed concussion protocol so his status remains up in the air for Saturday. Purdue?s defense has been underwhelming at best. They allow more points, more yards, and more yards per play than any other defense in the conference.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The home team in this series has won 8 of the last 9 outright. The host is also 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. Last year Minnesota played host to Purdue last year as 10 point dogs and dominated the Boilers. The Gophs won 41-10 and outgained Purdue 415-233. Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm said this week that last year?s game and their poor performance has been brought up to the team as motivation for this game.
Ohio State at Nebraska (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Well there was no letdown from Ohio State after their Big Ten opening win two weeks ago @ Indiana. They played host to Miami (Oh) last Saturday and came away with a 76-5 win as a 39-point favorite! OSU QB Justin Fields, a Georgia transfer, accounted for 6 TD?s (4 passing & 2 rushing) and now has 19 TD?s in the first 4 games. The Buckeyes led just 7-5 at the end of the first quarter giving the Miami (Oh) bettors at +39 some hope. That hope exited in the 2nd quarter as Ohio State tallied 42 points and led 49-5 at half. After leading by just 2 points at the end of the first quarter, OSU scored TD?s on 10 of their final 12 possessions. One thing we do know is Ohio State has come out rolling in the first half. They have outscored their opponents 135-18 this year in the first half. They have had 32 first half offensive possessions and scored TD?s on 19 of those. That?s scoring TD?s on 60% of their first half possessions, not just points, we?re talking TD?s. Impressive. The defense will be the key for the Bucks this year. That was their weak spot last season as they allowed over 400 YPG which was the most yardage they allowed per game EVER! Or at least back to 1960 which is as far as our records go back. This year they have looked very good on that side of the ball allowing just 222 YPG which is 2nd nationally only behind Big 10 rival Wisconsin.

We felt the Huskers were overrated coming into the season as there was much talk about Nebraska being the best team in the Big 10 West. Well they?ve proven us correct so far struggling to beat a bad South Alabama team at home, losing a big revenge game in OT @ Colorado, and they had a problem with a lower tier Big 10 team Illinois on the road last week. They are 3-1 with their lone easy win vs Northern Illinois included but just 1-3 ATS. Now we must admit that despite their 42-38 close win @ Illinois last Saturday, the Huskers did dominate the stats and it looked like their offense is now humming scoring 86 points in their last 2 games. Nebraska was +18 first downs in that game and had nearly 700 yards of total offense with a very balanced attack (346 yards rushing / 327 yards passing). They ran a ridiculous 98 offensive plays to just 62 for the Illini. So how did this one stay close? Turnovers. Nebraska had 4 fumbles which directly led to 21 of the Illini?s 38 points while Illinois did not turn the ball over. Is this offense now heading in the right direction? Well they?ve played 4 teams thus far ranked 73rd or lower in total defense and now they play the #2 defense in the nation. I guess we?ll find out on Saturday.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: This line opened with OSU -14 and moved to -17.5 in less than 24 hours. Last season OSU was favored by basically this same number (-17) at home vs Nebraska and held on for a 36-31 win with the total yardage in the game being almost equal. The Husker have been a home underdog of 17 points or more just ONCE EVER. That was in 2017 vs this same OSU team. The Buckeyes were favored by -24 in that game and won 56-14. Ohio State has been a road favorite of 17 or more 46 times since 1980 and they are 28-18 ATS in those games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Moves - Week 5
September 26, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 5 Total Moves

The oddsmakers and I have been passing that broomstick back and forth for the past three weeks, as after Week 3's plays saw me on the wrong side of the broom, last week's plays gave me the upper hand once again. That made it two of the past three weeks that I've been on the right side of these plays sweeping the board, and hopefully this week's plays don't mirror Week 3's results.

Michigan State and Northwestern got so much 'under' love all the way until kickoff that the line actually dropped as low as 35 points. So 38 was far from the best number, but thanks to both teams finding the end zone in the final frame, the two teams managed to finish with 41 points and eclipse every number.

UCF and Pitt managed to prove that that early money on the high side of the 'over' was the correct side all along, as even before Pitt scored that final TD to win in basically walk-off fashion, the two teams had combined for 62 points already. The scoring was that high despite the two teams going a combined 9-for-33 on 3rd downs.

It's on to Week 5's plays though, as just like every week in college football, there have been plenty of total moves already.

YTD: 5-3 ATS

Week 5 Total move to disagree with:

USC/Washington from 59.5 to 61
Lots of 'over' love already this week for this Pac-12 tilt, as betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com currently show about 75%+ of the action already on the high side. Given the high profile of both schools and the emphasis on winning with offensive football, the 'over' that the majority is backing here does have a case.

However, a good portion of that case for the 'over' is predicated on many believing Washington QB Jacob Eason is believed to be better then he probably is. Yes, He's put up great numbers through four games so far this season (10/2 TD/INT ratio), and was a highly sought after guy coming out of high school. He's got all the physical attributes for sure, and his dissection of BYU last week ? a common opponent already between the two teams ? was respectable. However, he's also 0-1 SU in Pac-12 play this year as a very good Cal defense stifled and confused him at nearly every turn. California might have the best defense in the conference, but with the athletes USC always recruits on that side of the ball, it's like the Trojans are chopped liver.

Furthermore, on the other side of the coin you've got a 3rd string QB in Matt Fink making his first collegiate road start in hostile, rival territory. That situation in itself is not that conducive to points, and with Washington not allowing more than 20 points against in any one of their four games so far, I've got a tough time seeing just where all these points are going to come from.

Even if you were to pencil in 20 points for the Trojans, that means you'd need 40+ from Washington to clear this current number. Sure, the Huskies have been able to do that in all three of their wins this year, but again, that came against lesser competition for the most part, and to assume they'll be able to do that against USC is severely disrespecting what the Trojans bring on defense. USC hasn't allowed more than 27 points through four quarters of play in any of their four games this year, and with a 2-6 O/U run going after their last eight victories, even getting to 55 points feels like a stretch.

Week 5 Total move to to agree with:

Arkansas/Texas A&M from 57.5 to 59.5
Neutral site game for these two Big 12 rivals each coming off a disappointing defeat. For Texas A&M, they failed to defend their home turf against a very good Auburn team in a 28-20 loss, as they were thoroughly dominated on the ground in that game. For the Razorbacks, they were unable to defend their home turf either, but an outright loss to San Jose State as -20 home favorites reeks of disappointment on all levels.

This is a big step up in class for Arkansas and given how they performed so poorly, and while that may bring it's challenges on offense, you give up 31 points to San Jose State, allowing 40+ to Texas A&M is definitely in the cards. After all, after facing defenses like Clemson and Auburn in two of the past three weeks, this Aggies attack may feel like they are up against a high school unit when Arkansas's defense is on the field.

It does take two teams to pull their weight though to cash an 'over' ticket, and as I touched on the other day in this piece, I do like Arkansas's chances of at least doing enough to put up 20 points themselves. After all, it's hard not for the Aggies to be a little deflated after already suffering two defeats, and with a huge game against Alabama on deck, it's also hard for them not to be peeking ahead to that game. The Razorbacks should be in full blown redemption mode after losing as huge favorites at home a week ago, and with nobody giving them a shot this week, and in a favorable situational spot at least in terms of the potential negatives for the Aggies here, 20+ points from Arkansas isn't much to ask.

Texas A&M are on a 8-2 O/U run after failing to cover a spread as it is, and with them being no strangers to putting on an offensive show for neutral site fans ? the Aggies are on a 5-1 O/U run in their last six on a neutral field ? something like 45-24 could easily be where this game ends up.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Buffalo-Miami (Ohio).: 49.5 to 47
Minnesota-Purdue: 56.5 to 53.5
Northern Illinois-Vanderbilt: 54.5 to 51.5
UTEP-Southern Miss: 52.5 to 49.5

Up
Fresno State-New Mexico State: 60 to 63
Kentucky-South Carolina: 50.5 to 53

(Odds Subject to Change)

 

[Cnotes53]

'GameDay' visit bolsters Nebraska
September 26, 2019
By The Associated Press

LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) With nary a conference championship since 1999, and now on its fifth coach since Tom Osborne's teams ruled the mid-1990s, Nebraska has been an afterthought in college football most of the last two decades.

This week, the Cornhuskers (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) are front and center again. Their game against No. 5 Ohio State (4-0, 1-0) on Saturday night was always going to be a big one. Add a visit from ESPN's ''College GameDay'' show in the morning, and it's become huge.

''This is a good opportunity to highlight our program, the direction the program is going, the improvement we have made, the path that we are on,'' second-year coach Scott Frost said. ''It's going to be great to get national attention here in Lincoln.''

Yes, if Rece Davis, Desmond Howard, Kirk Herbstreit and Lee Corso show up on campus, chances are your team is playing in the top game of the week.

The party starts early.

Crowds congregate behind and around the set from 9 a.m. to noon EDT holding signs with messages supporting their team, taking a shot at the opponent or maybe asking people at home to send money for beer. The folks cheer or boo depending on what they hear - or which mascot head Corso puts on when he predicts the winner of the host school's game. A favorite segment features a ''guest picker,'' typically a celebrity with ties to the school or area who joins the panel in predicting winners of the day's key games.

The atmosphere, to say the least, is raucous. And, for that week's host, it's akin to a three-hour advertisement aimed at prospective recruits.

Saturday marks the 317th time GameDay has originated from a campus. It's the seventh visit to Nebraska, but the first since 2007.

''This is Nebraska. This is big-time college football,'' quarterback Adrian Martinez said. ''I'm excited that College GameDay's back here this Saturday, and that's the way it should be again.''

Ohio State has hosted the show 18 times, most of any school. Alabama is next, at 13, followed by Michigan, Florida and LSU, at 12 each.

Ohio State this week will tie Alabama with 45 appearances in the featured game.

The GameDay crew, including people in front of and behind the cameras, decides mostly by committee where they will go each week, coordinating producer Drew Gallagher said.

Lincoln was selected around midnight last Saturday, shortly after the Cornhuskers came from behind to win at Illinois. Had Nebraska lost, GameDay might have gone elsewhere, though the fact Ohio State is coming to town weighed in Lincoln's favor.

''With Ohio State right now, there's a little bit of curiosity, especially with Justin Fields,'' Gallagher said. ''He hasn't really been tested in a road environment like this. This has also been the kind of game over the several years that Ohio State has struggled in. Factor it all in - the scene, Lincoln on a Saturday night - and it was a pretty easy decision.''

ESPN during the offseason maps out possible GameDay sites for the first month of the season. Schools receive letters outlining how much space would be needed, along with other requirements. Gallagher said he's never heard of a school not wanting GameDay to come.

Fan bases often lobby for a visit through social media campaigns, and schools themselves sometimes ask. Nebraska was notified last week it was a candidate. Gallagher said a person from the athletic department, whom he declined to name, then initiated contact to sell the network on why Nebraska would be the best choice.

GameDay's visit comes the morning after new basketball coach Fred Hoiberg holds a public scrimmage followed by a performance by rapper Rick Ross. Some of the football and basketball programs' top recruiting prospects will be visiting.

ESPN no longer estimates on-site GameDay attendance. A number is hard to lock down because it's not a ticketed event and people come and go. The highest reported attendance was 18,000 at Missouri in 2010, hours before the Tigers upset third-ranked Oklahoma.

Average viewership across ESPN's platforms is just under 2 million through four shows this year.

According to Omaha-based Universal Information Services, which measures the impact of media mentions, the GameDay appearance at Georgia last week generated an estimated $1.3 million in publicity value through local and national broadcast mentions (the figure didn't account for the three-hour show itself). Publicity value is the estimated cost of promotion, based on advertising rates across TV and radio platforms, that would produce an equal amount of exposure.

The buzz here has been high. Two days after the Lincoln visit was announced, the publicity value already had matched the $1.3 million produced in a full week for the Georgia stop.

''A lot of this stuff is for the fans. People eat it up,'' Frost said.

That's true, and something not to be minimized. The fan base that started selling out games in 1962, and continues to do so despite the program's recent struggles, has become one of the Huskers' biggest talking points in the absence of significant wins or championships. A scene where thousands of people in red gather around the GameDay set sends a message to prospects.

GameDay's visit also shows Frost's work has not gone unnoticed.

''If we weren't improving and getting better and going in a really good direction that was obvious to a lot of people,'' he said, ''we wouldn't have those guys on ESPN coming to town.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday, September 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DUKE (2 - 1) at VIRGINIA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN ST (3 - 0) at MARYLAND (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE ST (2 - 1) at AIR FORCE (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA ST (3 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (4 - 0) - 9/27/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Friday, September 27

Duke @ Virginia Tech
Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games when playing Duke

Penn State @ Maryland
Penn State
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Maryland
Maryland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games at home

San Jose State @ Air Force
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Jose State's last 8 games on the road
Air Force
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Arizona State @ California
Arizona State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games when playing California
California
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of California's last 7 games at home
California is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona State


---------------------------------------------


Friday?s games

Underdogs covered eight of last 11 Duke-Virginia Tech games; Blue Devils won two of last three visits to Blacksburg, with the two wins by total of five points, but those are Duke?s only wins in last 15 series games. Blue Devils covered five of their last six games as a road underdog; they split pair of I-A games, losing 41-3 to Alabama, winning 41-18 at MTSU. Virginia Tech lost its opener 35-28 at BC, then beat a couple of stiffs, sneaking past a I-AA team 24-17; under Fuente, Hokies are 9-6 ATS when laying points at home.

First road game for Penn State squad that hung on to beat Pitt 17-10 LW, giving up 372 passing yards- they allowed total of 23 points in pair of I-A wins. Last three years, Nittany Lions are 7-4 ATS as a road favorite- they?re 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a Big 14 single digit fave. Maryland crushed Syracuse, but then got upset at Temple; Terrapins are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog- they allowed 607 PY in their two I-A games this year. Since 2011, Maryland is 7-12 ATS as a conference home dog.

San Jose State (+20.5) stunned Arkansas 31-24 LW, throwing for 402 yards; Spartans lost 34-16 at home to Tulsa the week before- they allowed total of 1,026 yards in two I-A games. San Jose is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Air Force lost 30-19 at Boise LW, after upsetting Colorado the week before; Falcons are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-6 ATS in last eight Mountain West games. Air Force ran ball for 531 yards in their two I-A games, but they also threw double digit passes in both games.

Under Herm Edwards, Arizona State covered six of eight games as an underdog; ASU split its last two games, both decided by a FG- they?ve run ball for average of only 92.7 yards/game, and they play a true freshman QB. Sun Devils lost five of last seven games with California, losing six of last seven visits to Berkeley (2-5 ATS). 4-0 Golden Bears are Pac-12?s only unbeaten team, with wins at Washington, Ole Miss; all three of their I-A games were decided by 8 or fewer points- under Wilcox, Cal is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.


-------------------------------------------------


Friday, September 27

Duke @ Virginia Tech

Game 105-106
September 27, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Duke
84.438
Virginia Tech
89.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(-2 1/2); Under

Penn State @ Maryland

Game 107-108
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
103.410
Maryland
99.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 3 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 7
60
Dunkel Pick:
Maryland
(+7); Over

San Jose St @ Air Force

Game 109-110
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
72.915
Air Force
86.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Air Force
by 13
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 19
56
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose St
(+19); Under

Arizona State @ California

Game 111-112
September 27, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
88.196
California
89.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 5
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona State
(+5); Over


-------------------------------------


Friday, Sept. 27

Matchup Skinny
Edge

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Hokies have covered last 2 and won last 3 SU in series. Though Fuente 0-3 vs. line TY and 7-14 last 21 on board. If Cutcliffe a dog note 24-12-1 mark in role since 2013.
Duke, based on team trends.


PENN STATE at MARYLAND...Locksley 2-0 vs. line at home this season, now 7-2 vs. spread last nine as host. But James Franklin has been merciless with three big wins and covers in a row vs. Terps, the last two by combined 104-6 scoreline! Franklin 7-4 as visiting chalk since 2016.
Penn State, based on series trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at AIR FORCE...Spartans are 6-2 last eight as a road dog and 9-3 last 11 as DD dog. Calhoun 4-2 last six as DD chalk though only 6-7 vs. line as host since 2016.
Slight to San Jose State, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at CAL...If Herm a dog note his 6-3 mark in role since joining ASU last year. Cal 1-7-1 last 9 as chalk (0-2 TY), and these teams ?under? a combined 6-2 this season.
Arizona State and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

tout


Recent Meetings:
2018: Penn State (-12) 38 vs. Maryland 3, Under 51 ?
2017: Penn State (-23.5) 66 at Maryland 3, Over 57
2016: Penn State (+1) 38 at Maryland 14, Under 55 ?
2015: Penn State (-5.5) 31 at Maryland 30, Over 46 ?
2014: Maryland (+3) 20 at Penn State 19, Under 44

It was nice to connect with the USC Trojans last Friday, as even having another QB go down wasn't enough for a Trojans team that's quit a few times in recent years to do so again. The Pac-12 continues to be the conference where parity within the conference continues to occur, and sadly it's because of that that generally takes any one of their programs out of the national conversation.

This Friday we get another showcase of Pac-12 foes with Arizona State and a ranked California team doing battle, but that's not the only high profile Power 5 conference in action. Duke and Virginia Tech put the ACC up first for the evening, but it's the other contest featuring a ranked squad ? Penn State ? that I want to start with.

The Big 10 gets a piece of the Friday night stage this week, and after Penn State and Maryland both had last week off to prepare for this tilt, we should expect both sides to be rather sharp. For Penn State, it's all about getting back to their efficient ways on offense as tough weather and a tougher Pittsburgh defense had them grinding out a 17-10 home victory the last time they were on the football field. That's a rivalry game for the Nittany Lions that does tend to be much tougher then the point spread usually suggests, and Penn State never sniffed an ATS cover that day.

At the same time, Maryland's offense is looking to rebound after a tough outing against a tough defense themselves, as a 20-17 loss @ Temple was the last time they stepped on a football field. That defeat really let a lot of the air out of a very impressive start for the Terrapins ? they had put up 142 points in their first two games ? and then just couldn't sustain drives against the Owls. The 24% conversion rate on 3rd down (5-for-21) was the biggest issue for Maryland that day, and even their 1-for-6 number on 4th down just showed how desperate things got for that offense.

So this game sets up with two teams off a week of rest, off games where they both scored just 17 points, after they both averaged at least 62 points scored per game in their previous two games this year. Obviously, both found a big step up in competition level to be a challenge offensively, but at the same time, it's easy to figure that won't last, especially after a week off.

Understandably, the 'over' has seen plenty of support in the betting market, out of the gate and continually, as many believe those 17-point efforts by both sides were just a blip on the radar. Maryland's on a 4-1 O/U run at home dating back to last year, and are 6-0 O/U after scoring fewer than 20 points. At the same time, Penn State is on a 7-1 O/U run away from home, 12-4 O/U off a SU win, and 8-3 O/U themselves after scoring fewer than 20 points. Without question the 'over' appears to be the look for this game, but after opening sub-60 at some places, going 'over' 61.5 now with it being the ?public? look can be tough to swallow.


Arizona State at No. 15 California

Venue/Location: Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Cal -5 ?, Total 40

Recent Meetings:
2016 Arizona State (-3.5) 51 vs. California 41, Over 85
2015 California (-4) 48 at Arizona State 46, Over 67

It's always interesting how quickly a 'culture change' can happen at the collegiate level, as both of these schools have changed quite a bit since they last met in September of 2016. You don't need to look any further for proof of that point then the totals posted between then and now, as that meeting in 2016 had the total close at 85 points! It's more than half of that just a few years later.

Cal coach Justin Wilcox has built a ferocious defense fitting of the ?Bear? name, while Herm Edwards has implemented his pro experience at this level to help the Sun Devils be much better on that side of the ball too. A flat '40' is an extremely low total for college football, and just like the Big 10 game on Friday night, a strong majority of the action has come on the high side of things. Just keep in mind, even with that support, the number really hasn't budged since opening and that's the difference.

But it's the side that's more appealing to me, as this Cal team definitely looks to be for real with that defense they've got. There was still some skepticism after they upset the Washington Huskies up in Washington as two-TD underdogs in that that game could have been a lightning in a bottle-type effort, but going on the road to Ole Miss for a 9 am body clock start time and winning there was what convinced me that California is for real this year. It's because of that defense ? who allowed 20 points for the first time in that 28-20 Ole Miss win ? as to why the Golden Bears appear to be legit, and I'm still not sure the market has completely caught up with them.

Herm Edwards brought his own skeptics with him in regards to him succeeding at this level, and even with a 34-31 home loss to Colorado last week, he's 2-0 SU vs Michigan State the last two years, and has brought a level of accountability ? especially on defense ? to this ASU program that they were lacking for years. That being said, there are still too many mistakes that this team makes during a 60-minute football game, and against a defense as good as the one Cal's got, that just can't happen for an underdog.

With current betting percentages showing there is plenty of support for ASU outright in this game, I believe that on this national stage late Friday night, Justin Wilcox and his Cal Golden Bears announce themselves on more of a national level.

Without question there is still plenty of room for growth offensively for Cal going forward, and if even half of that potential growth is realized, together with their defense, this team could be really scary. They aren't a team that's going to win too many 44-41 type games you can get in the Pac-12 yet, but unless they suffer numerous injuries on the defensive side of things, that's not a realistic potential outcome as it is. The total being set as low as it is suggests that this will be a 21-14 type game, and it's hard not to back this California team that's on a 6-1 ATS run in conference play if that's the case.

Best Bet: California -4 ?

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-2 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DUKE at VT 07:00 PM
VT -2.5
O 51.5

PSU at MD 08:00 PM
PSU -7.0
U 62.0

SJSU at AFA 08:00 PM
SJSU +19.5
U 57.5

ASU at CAL 10:30 PM
ASU +4.0
O 42.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Benjamin, Arizona State top No. 15 California 24-17
September 28, 2019
By The Associated Press

BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) Eno Benjamin scored his third touchdown of the game on a 3-yard run with 4:41 remaining, leading Arizona State to a 24-17 victory over No. 15 California on Friday night.

The Golden Bears (4-1, 1-1) lost their perfect record and quarterback Chase Garbers to a right shoulder injury, spoiling their highest ranking in a decade. The loss also left the Pac-12 with no undefeated teams before the end of September.

The Sun Devils (4-1, 1-1) bounced back from a 34-31 loss to Colorado in the conference opener last week thanks to a strong performance by Benjamin. He had 29 carries for 100 yards, also scoring on an 11-yard run in the first quarter and a 4-yarder in the third quarter.

Jayden Daniels added 174 yards passing and 84 more on the ground as Arizona State earned its second road win this season against a ranked team, also beating Michigan State 10-7 two weeks ago.

NO. 12 PENN STATE 59, MARYLAND 0

COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) - Sean Clifford threw for 398 yards and three touchdowns, ran for a score and carried No. 12 Penn State to yet another lopsided victory over Maryland.

Penn State scored on its first four possessions, led 38-0 at halftime and finished with 619 yards in its Big Ten opener. After Jan Johnson got things started by ending Maryland's first possession with an interception, Clifford cruised into the end zone from the 8 and the rout was on.

After halftime, most of fans remaining from a rare sellout crowd of 53,228 at Maryland were cheering for the Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0).

Clifford threw a 58-yard touchdown pass to KJ Hamler for a 14-0 lead, connected with Nick Bowerson on a 15-yarder to make it 28-0 and hit Journey Brown for 37 yards for a 35-point cushion. After making his 14-for-30 performance against Pittsburgh a distant memory, Clifford remained on the sideline with 5:45 left in the third quarter and Penn State up 45-0.

The Terrapins (2-2, 0-1) garnered only 128 yards in offense.


**********************************


Harris, Duke put a hurting on Virginia Tech, 45-10
September 27, 2019
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BLACKSBURG, Va. (AP) A first-quarter defensive battle left Duke and Virginia Tech looking for something to kick-start their offense.

The Blue Devils got the break they needed early in the second quarter, while the struggling Hokies never did.

Quentin Harris threw for two touchdowns and ran for another and Duke beat Virginia Tech 45-10 on Friday night.

The Blue Devils managed 5 yards on offense in the first quarter but got their break when Hendon Hooker, on his second play at quarterback for the Hokies, tried to hand the ball to Keshawn King but it never got there. The fumble resulted in a 24-yard loss to the Hokies 16 and on the next play, Harris hit a wide-open Noah Gray for the touchdown.

''We really wanted to capitalize on that and get a score,'' Harris said. ''I thought we had a great play call.''

Hokies coach Justin Fuente downplayed the importance of the momentum swing because it came so early in the game and gave the Blue Devils just a 7-3 lead, but defensive coordinator Bud Foster was not as quick to dismiss it.

''It seemed like that turnover and then the next play took the wind right out of everything,'' he said.

Harris hit Gray from a yard out for the second score, and Duke (3-1, 1-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) made it 21-3 on a 25-yard trick play on which Harris lateraled to Jalon Calhoun, who hit a wide-open Deon Jackson, capping a 91-yard drive just 39 seconds before halftime.

Harris added a 42-yard scoring run and Jackson had a 32-yarder early in the fourth quarter, sending fans pouring out of Lane Stadium.

''Obviously we're not ready,'' said Fuente, whose team, like Duke's was coming back from a bye week. ''We're not at the point where we can compete and play and have a chance to win against that team we played tonight.''

The Hokies (2-2, 0-2) got their only touchdown on a 72-yard connection from Ryan Willis to Damon Hazleton after they fell behind 31-3. The loss is their worst at home since a 49-12 defeat against Houston on Sept. 28, 1974, and was Fuente's first against the Blue Devils.

The start made it seem like a defensive struggle was in the offing. Virginia Tech managed just 60 yards in the opening quarter.

''I think we were really nervous a little to start,'' Harris said. ''But I think we settled in and got back to what we do best - making good decisions, getting the ball in the right guys' hands.''

On the trick play, Jackson was even more open than Gray had been when Calhoun hit him for the third score of the quarter.

Duke outgained the Hokies 422-259 and never let up. In the fourth quarter, facing a fourth-and-3 from midfield, Blue Devils punter Austin Parker took the snap, tucked it and went for 28 yards off the right side, drawing boos. Harris completed a 12-yard pass to Gray on fourth-and-7 from the Hokies 19 on the same drive, and backup quarterback Chris Katrenick ran it in from 8 yards out two plays later.

HAZLETON RETUNS

Hazleton's return for the Hokies was expected to boost their passing game, and did on the long touchdown pass, but his first impact wasn't what Fuente was expecting: the wide receiver was called for an illegal blindside block in the second quarter.

THE TAKEAWAY

Duke: The Blue Devils highlighted a continuing problem for the Hokies with 234 rushing yards, led by Harris' 100 on 17 carries. The total was more than Duke's 181-yard average and worsened Virginia's Tech's average. They had been yielding 174 yards per game.

Harris, who was missing receivers early, finished 20 for 27 for 163 yards and was not sacked.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies hardly looked like a team that spent their bye week making improvements. With a first-and-goal from the Duke 6, three running plays netted 4 yards. The switch from Ryan Willis to Hooker turned disastrous on the fumble leading to Duke's first score, and Fuente said both are battling injuries. He also defended Willis, who finished 7 for 18 for 112 yards with an interception.

''This certainly doesn't fall on Ryan Willis,'' he said.

UP NEXT

The Blue Devils open a two-game homestand with a night game against Pittsburgh.

The Hokies go on the road to face long-time rival Miami.


*****************************


Hammond leads Air Force over San Jose State 41-24
September 27, 2019
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AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. (AP) DJ Hammond III began the night on the sideline, resting a sore ankle. Things changed in a hurry.

Making an unexpected entry after an early injury forced Isaiah Sanders to leave the game, Hammond threw a 64-yard touchdown pass and finished or led four other scoring drives as Air Force beat San Jose State 41-24 on Friday night.

''Our offense has complete trust in both of those guys so whoever is up, we're behind them,'' said running back Taven Birdow, who rushed for 124 yards and two scores.

Sanders had started in place of Hammond, who sprained his ankle in last Friday's loss at Boise State and missed practice time in the days before the San Jose State game. Sanders, however, suffered a lower leg injury during the Falcons' first drive.

Christian Mallard had touchdown runs of 7 and 3 yards, Birdow had scoring runs of 1 and 3 yards, and Timothy Jackson added a 7-yard touchdown run for Air Force (3-1, 1-1 Mountain West), which improved to 4-1 in its series with San Jose State (2-2, 0-1). Geraud Sanders caught the long scoring pass from Hammond.

The Spartans scored on their opening possession, ending the drive with a 1-yard touchdown run by DeJon Packer. But the Spartans were soon overtaken by the Falcons, whose defense denied San Jose State with four fourth-down stops in the game, including one from Air Force's 1-yard line.

''I think that was a big turning point in the game, the first time we got a fourth-down stop, and to be able to consistently get those fourth-down stops was huge for our defense and for our confidence as a team,'' safety Jeremy Fejedelem said.

San Jose State coach Brent Brennan conceded the inability to finish off drives figured most prominently in the Spartans' defeat.

''Those plays were huge,'' Brennan said. ''They were drive stoppers, all of them in the red zone or plus territory. Those were moments when your playmakers have to make a play. We didn't do it there. It was all a lack of execution.''

Up by 11 at the half, Air Force separated itself with two quick third-quarter touchdowns. Joshua Stoner broke loose for 43 yards on a sweep around left end to the San Jose State 3 and Mallard scored the first of his two TDs on the next play.

Jake Koehnke's ensuing kickoff was held up by strong winds swirling through Falcons Stadium before dropping like a rock at the Spartans 20. A sprinting Grant Donaldson beat San Jose State's return team to the live ball to recover for Air Force and Mallard scored his second touchdown moments later to put Air Force up 34-10.

Birdow scored his second touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. Nick Nash threw touchdown passes of 30 yards to Andre Crump Jr. and 6 yards to Derrick Deese Jr. in the final four minutes.

Air Force scored three straight touchdowns to take a 21-10 lead at halftime. Jackson finished the first scoring drive with a 7-yard scoring run and the Falcons moved in front when Hammond threw deep to Geraud Sanders, who was 5 yards clear of the Spartans secondary when he gathered in the 64-yard scoring pass

Air Force's defense set up the score with the second of two fourth-down stops of San Jose State's offense deep in Falcons territory.

The Spartans, who missed two earlier scoring opportunities when they were stopped short on fourth down, got a 25-yard field goal from Matt Mercurio just before the end of the second quarter.

OPENING BLUES

Since joining the Mountain West in 2013, San Jose State has gone 0-7 in league openers, and two of those losses have come at the hands of Air Force.

THE TAKEAWAY

San Jose State: The Spartans started strong but couldn't find a way to sustain their early success. They had their opportunities but four failed fourth-down conversion attempts, all deep in Air Force territory, left the Spartans running on empty.

Air Force: DJ Hammond opened up the Falcons' offense with his touchdown strike to Sanders and the Falcons then leaned on their corps of running backs to carry the load on offense with Sanders injured and Hammond fighting through lingering ankle soreness. The Falcons defense chipped in with key stops throughout the game.

UP NEXT

San Jose State: Returns home to host New Mexico on Friday night.

Air Force: Plays at Navy next Saturday in the first of two meetings against a fellow service academy. Air Force hosts Army on Nov. 2.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/27/2019.........5-3-0.....62.50%............+8.50
09/26/2019.........1-1-0.....50.00%.............-0.50
09/21/2019......30-38-1....44.12%..............-59.00
09/20/2019.........5-1-0.....83.33%.............+19.50
09/19/2019.........0-2-0.......0.00%.............-11.00
09/14/2019......28-24-1.....54.00%............+8.00
09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%............-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%............-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.............-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%...........+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%.......... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%........... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%........... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%........... -3.00

Totals...........130-154-4...... 45.77%..... -197.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/27/2019............2 - 1.............+4.50.............1 - 1.................-0.50.............+4.00
09/26/2019............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1.................-5.50..............-0.50
09/21/2019............13 - 20..........-45.00............10 - 6..............+17.00............-28.00
09/20/2019............1 - 1..............-0.50..............2 - 0...............+10.00............+9.50
09/19/2019............0 - 1..............-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.00
09/14/2019...........16 - 7.............+41.50............5 - 6................-8.00.............+33.50
09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................53 - 84...........-96.00..........42 - 43.............-25.50.............-122.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

Odds to team to score the most points in Saturday?s college games (Rampart Casino):

8-1? Oklahoma

10-1? Alabama, UCF, Clemson, Ohio State, Utah State

12-1? Fresno State

15-1? Wake Forest

18-1? Arizona

20-1? Texas A&M, Western Michigan

Quote of the Day
?Who is going to miss you after you die? Maybe your two dogs will miss you for a week??
Royals manager Ned Yost, talking to a sportswriter he was joking with a few years ago

Saturday?s quiz
Before becoming the Utah Jazz in 1979, where did the Jazz call home?

Friday?s quiz
Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election.

Thursday?s quiz
Julius Erving and George Gervin both played for the Virginia Squires in the ABA.

*****************************

Saturday?s List of 13: Notes on 13 other college games for today??

Underdogs covered four of last five Northwestern-Wisconsin games; Wildcats are 3-4-1 ATS in last eight visits to Madison, 14-4 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog. Wisconsin won its first three games this year by a combined 145-14; they were up 35-0 on Michigan LW, outgaining Wolverines 487-299. Badgers are 12-15-1 in last 28 games as a home favorite. 2-0 this year.

South Florida won its last three games with SMU by 1-24-8 points; teams last met in 2016. SMU is off to a 4-0 start behind Texas transfer QB Buechele, scoring 37+ points in all four games- they covered twice in last seven games as a road favorite. South Florida was outscored 63-10 in losing its two I-A game; they killed a I-AA stiff LW. Bulls covered once in their last five games as a home underdog.

Favorites covered nine of last 11 Buffalo-Miami games; Bulls are 3-5 ATS in their last eight visits to Miami. Buffalo covered four of last five games as a road favorite- they?re 0-2 on road this year, losing last one 35-17 (-6) at Liberty. Red Hawks are 0-3 vs I-A teams this year, with all three losses by 22+ points; they lost 76-5 at Ohio State LW, are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

Minnesota won five of last six games with Purdue; Gophers ran for 200+ yards in all six games. Favorites covered last five series games played here. Minnesota is 3-0 this year, allowing 88 points, with no wins by more than 7 points. Purdue allowed 92 points in its 1-2 start; under Brohm, Boilers are 8-7 ATS at home. Purdue threw for 932 yards in its first two games, but only 181 in their 34-13 home loss to TCU in their last game.

Road team won both Louisiana-Georgia Southern games; Ragin? Cajuns (+7.5) won 33-26 here two years ago. ULL won its first road game 45-25 (+3) at Ohio LW; Cajuns are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. GSU lost its last game 35-32 at Minnesota (outgained 382-198), week after they struggled to beat I-AA Maine 26-18; Eagles are 5-4-1 as home underdogs.

Middle Tennessee lost its two I-A games 40-21/41-18, to Michigan/Duke; they beat a I-AA stiff 45-26 in between, but allowed 200+ rushing yards in all three games. MTSU is 9-13-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog. Iowa plays Michigan/Penn State the next two weeks, is likely looking past this game; Hawkeyes covered six of their last eight games as a home favorite- they are 7-2 in last nine games as a double digit favorite.

Wyoming is 8-3 in last 11 games vs UNLV, losing 69-66 (-7.5) on the Strip LY. UNLV allowed 490 RY, 73 points in losing its two I-A games; they lost first road game 30-14 at Northwestern. Rebels completed only 27-52 passes in those games. Under Sanchez, UNLV is 15-7 ATS as a road underdog. Last 3+ years, Wyoming is 6-2 ATS when laying points at home; Cowboys are 2-1 vs I-A teams, despite allowing 354+ PY in all three games.

Michigan State won nine of last ten games with Indiana, which hasn?t even covered a spread in its last seven visits to East Lansing. Hoosiers are 3-1 with a 51-10 loss at Ohio State; they?re 13-20 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. MSU covered once in its last six games as a home favorite; they got upset 10-7 by Arizona St in their last home tilt. Spartans are 32-1 this year, with all three wins by 21+ points.

Northern Illinois was outscored 79-25 in losing its two road games; Huskies are 18-8 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog, but they?ve got new coach this year. Vanderbilt lost its first three games, allowing 138 points; they allowed 927 PY in last two games. Under Mason, Commodores are 8-9 as a home favorite, 5-7 outside the SEC. Last three years, MAC squads are 9-7 ATS when playing an SEC opponent.

Kansas (+13.5) upset TCU 27-26 at home LY, there first win over the Horned Frogs in 21 years; Jayhawks covered two of last three visits to Fort Worth. Kansas is 1-2 vs I-A, with both losses by five points; they won SU as 19-point underdogs at Boston College. TCU (-7.5) got upset here by local rival SMU LW; Horned Frogs are 3-13-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. TCU has completed only 24-60 passes in its two I-A games.

UAB won its two games with Western Kentucky by total of 7 points; teams last met in 2014. Blazers won their first two I-A games this year by 11-32 points, scoring 31-35 points; under Clark, UAB is 4-4 ATS when laying points on the road. Over last decade, WKU is 13-6 as a home underdog, but they?re 10-18 SU in last 28 games; Hilltoppers were outrushed 361-141 in splitting their two I-A games.

Ohio State won its first four games, last three by combined score of 169-15; over last 10+ years, Buckeyes 16-19-1 ATS as a road favorite- they?re 13-11 ATS in last 24 games when laying double digits. OSU won last four games vs Nebraska, but struggled in 36-31 (-18) home win LY. Huskers outgained Illinois 690-299 LW but won only 42-38; since 2010, Nebraska is 2-6 ATS as a home underdog.

Houston QB King is red-shirting after Cougars? 1-3 start; unsure how much chaos that throws the Cougars? program into. Houston allowed 118 points in losing all three of its I-A games; they are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog. Since 2011, North Texas is 17-11 ATS when laying points at home. Last four years, AAC teams are 12-8 ATS when playing a C-USA foe. These teams last met in 2012.