Betting Recap - Week 8
October 20, 2019
By Joe Williams
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 8 RESULTS
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-16
Against the Spread 33-29
WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 40-22
Against the Spread 29-33
WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-29
YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 411-96
Against the Spread 256-241-10
YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 345-158
Against the Spread 240-253-10
YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 239-266-8
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Illinois (+30.5, ML+2500) vs. Wisconsin, 24-23
Vanderbilt (+21, ML +1000) vs. Missouri, 21-14
Georgia Tech (+18.5, ML +700) at Miami-Fla., 28-21 (OT)
Oregon State (+10.5, ML +325) at California, 21-17
Eastern Michigan (+9.5, ML +275) vs. Western Michigan, 34-27
The largest favorites to cover
Oklahoma (-33.5) vs. West Virginia, 52-14
Minnesota (-28.5) at Rutgers, 42-7
Ohio State (-27.5) at Northwestern, 52-3
Clemson (-24) at Louisville, 45-10
Utah State (-21) vs. Nevada, 36-10
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
-- SMU kept their perfect season alive with a 45-21 win over Temple. Not only are the Mustangs 7-0 SU, they're 6-1 ATS with the 'over' cashing in each of their seven games. ... South Florida was roughed up by Navy, 35-3, as the Bulls slipped to 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS. The Middies have quietly posted a 5-1 SU/ATS mark at the halfway point. ... Memphis tuned up a very good Tulane, 47-17, as Kenneth Gainwell became the first player to receive for 200 yards and rush for 100 yards in a single game since Troy Edwards (La. Tech) in 1997. The Tigers improved to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in four straight. ... Cincinnati picked up a 24-13 win over Tulsa, improving to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS. The 'under' has cashed in five of seven for the Bearcats.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
-- Georgia Tech pulled off one of the biggest stunners of the day at Miami-Florida, winning 28-21 in overtime. The Hurricanes have been so hard to figure out. They surprised Virginia last week, a Top 25 team, then lost to a team they were favored by 18 points. Miami is now 3-4 SU/ATS after opening in the Top 25 rankings. ... Miami will travel to Pittsburgh next week. The Panthers won at Syracuse by a 28-20 score for their fifth cover in the past six games, as they keep their Coastal Division hopes alive. The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season. ... Florida State slipped up at Wake Forest, falling 22-20, as the Seminoles just can't seem to get on track, and stay on track. The Seminoles are now 3-4 SU/2-4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Wake recovered from last week's 62-59 loss at home to Louisville, moving to 6-1 SU/3-3-1 ATS. ... Speaking of the Cards, they were no match for Clemson, falling to the Tigers 45-10. After a 21-20 near-miss at UNC, the Tigers are 2-0 ATS, averaging 45.0 PPG, while the defense has yielded 14 or fewer points in six of seven.
BIG TEN
-- Illinois was the big story of the day, as they upended Wisconsin, 24-23 for the first signature win of the Lovie Smith era in Champaign. They won outright as 30.5-point underdogs at home, cashing at +2500 on the moneyline. It was the second-largest upset over the past 40 seasons, and largest since Northwestern beat Minnesota outright as a 32-point underdog in 1982. ... Speaking of Minnesota, there were no upset of the Gophers this week. They won 42-7 at Rutgers to improve to 7-0 SU. After opening the season 0-2-1 ATS, they have rattled off four straight covers, too. ... Michigan earned the cover at Penn State, but the Wolverines had a touchdown slip through a receiver's hands late which would have given them a chance to tie or go for two and win. The Nittany Lions are quietly 7-0 SU, but just 4-3 ATS. The 'over' result was the first since Sept. 7 after four straight 'under' results. ... Indiana picked up a 34-28 win over Maryland 34-28, in a result which was a small bad beat (see below).
BIG 12
-- The Kansas-Texas game wasn't supposed to be one of the better ones of the day, as the Longhorns were favored by 21. But it was a good ol' fashioned Texas shootout, with a total of 50 points in the fourth quarter alone. When the dust cleared, it was Texas winning 50-48 in a great game at DKR. The Jayhawks have covered back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Texas after starting out 1-4 ATS in the first five. ... Texas Tech was involved in another bad beat this week, and it was the total yet again. Iowa State won the game 34-24, going 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS across the past three outings. ... As far as the Sooners were concerned, they waylaid West Virginia by a 52-14 score as the 'over' connected. The Sooners covered the largest spread of the day in college football. ... Baylor kept their record unblemished with a solid road win at Oklahoma State, 45-27. The Cowboys opened the fourth quarter with a touchdown, giving them a 27-24 lead, but the Bears stormed back with 21 unanswered points. The Bears are 7-0 SU, but just 4-3 ATS.
CONFERENCE USA
-- Western Kentucky started the season with a loss at home to FCS Central Arkansas, and it looked like it would be a lost season for the Hilltoppers. They have turned things around big time. WKU topped Charlotte 30-14 to improve to 4-0 SU/ATS in conference play. The 'under' is also a perfect 4-0 over the past four outings for WKU. ... Florida International scratched out a 32-17 win over UTEP, as the Miners managed a cover. FIU has won three straight, although they're just 2-5 ATS overall. The Miners are 0-5 SU against FBS opponents, but they have covered two of the past three. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for UTEP. ... Louisiana Tech fell at Texas to open the season, but they have won six in a row while covering four of the past five. ... UAB rolled to a 38-14 win over Old Dominion, 38-14. The Blazers have won and covered three in a row, and they are 5-1 ATS over the past six outings.
MID-AMERICAN (MAC)
-- Toledo was stunned last week, and this week they were short 'dogs at Ball State. The Cardinals rolled up a 52-14 win over the reeling Rockets, who suddenly find themselves 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS, and not feeling very good about their season after a hot start. ... Kent State fell 45-38 in a high-scoring affair at Ohio. The Golden Flashes are just 3-4 SU, but they're a solid 3-1 ATS across the past four, with KSU going 3-0 ATS inside the MAC. ... Miami-Ohio posted a straight-up win over Northern Illinois as short 'dogs, winning 27-24. The Redhawks are 3-4 SU/ATS overall, but they have going 3-0 SU at home, and 2-0 ATS in two games against FBS opponents while the 'over' is also 3-0 in their three home outings. ... Buffalo made it interesting, but they won and covered at Akron by a 21-0 count. The Zips slipped to 0-7 SU/ATS, while the Bulls are 3-4 SU, but a solid 3-1 ATS over the past four outings. ... Eastern Michigan surprised Western Michigan by a 34-27 count in Ypsilanti, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now 4-3 SU, but this was their first cover since Sept. 14, an outright win at Illinois.
MOUNTAIN WEST
-- San Diego State scratched out a 27-17 road win over San Jose State, picking up their sixth win in seven tries, while covering for the third straight outing, and fifth in six contests. The Aztecs have been a favorite of total bettors, too, as the 'under' is 6-1 in seven games for SDSU. ... Nevada got waffled at Utah State, falling 36-10. The Aggies were able to cover the 21-point number, as USU is now 4-2 SU/ATS, including 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in three MWC battles. ... Boise State had their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl game dented by BYU, falling 28-25 in Provo. The Broncos slipped to 6-1 SU, while going 4-2-1 ATS overall. The 'over' has hit in consecutive games for the first time this season for BSU. ... Air Force wasn't distracted in the Islands, winning 56-26 at Hawaii despite losing their starting quarterback, Donald Hammond, to a shoulder injury early on. The Falcons are now 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in four in a row for USAFA.
PAC-12
-- Oregon State surprised California, 21-17. The Beavers have covered five of the past six games overall. ... Arizona suffered a 41-14 road loss at USC, as the Wildcats slipped to 4-3 SU and just 2-4-1 ATS. The Trojans suffered all kinds of injuries, but depth was on display. USC is 4-3 SU/ATS, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four games at home, while going 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in three road games. They're on the road at Colorado next Friday. ... The Buffaloes were hammered by a 41-10 score at Washington State, as the Cougars finally got back on track. It was their first cover since Aug. 31 after an 0-5 ATS skid. ... Oregon picked up a 35-31 win at Washington, as the kept the conference's bleak playoff chances alive. The Ducks have won six in a row since falling to Auburn in a neutral-site battle on Aug. 31, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four outings.
SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)
-- Alabama lost QB Tua Tagavailoa to a high-ankle sprain, and head coach Nick Saban said after the game that he expects Tua to miss "one to two weeks". That means QB Mac Jones will start against Arkansas next week, so watch that line carefully. The Crimson Tide won 35-13 over Tennessee even without Tua for a good chunk of the game. The Tide are now 7-0 SU, but just 3-4 ATS, and they have failed to cover consecutive games all season. ... LSU roughed up Mississippi State by a 36-13 count in Starkville, keeping their record unblemished and on a collision course with 'Bama on Nov. 2. The Tigers are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS. The Bulldogs are 0-3 SU/ATS over the past three outings. ... Texas A&M found a way to get it done at Mississippi, 24-17. The Aggies scored a late TD with 2:34 to go, making it 24-14. Lucky for A&M bettors, the Rebels elected to kick a field goal with :26 left to make it a one-possession game, and try for an onside kick. They didn't get it. ... Missouri was stunned at Vanderbilt, as the Commodores won outright as 21-point 'dogs (+1000 ML). It's the same Vandy team which was hammered by UNLV last week.
SUN BELT
-- Georgia State took care of Army 28-21, as the Panthers are now 5-2 SU and 4-1-2 ATS overall. That's one win away from bowl eligibility. Their only losses have been a blowout at Western Michigan, and a triple-overtime loss at Texas State. ... Appalachian State topped Louisiana-Monroe, 52-7, and their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl are alive and well, helped out by Boise's loss. The Mountaineers are now 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, covering four straight. ... If you had the 'under' in the Coastal Carolina-Georgia Southern game, condolensces. See below.
Bad Beats
-- With a total of 57 on the board, Iowa State held a 34-17 lead over Texas Tech with 1:30 to go. However, QB Jeff Duffey hit T.J. Vasher for a short touchdown pass to push the total 'over'. The Red Raiders were involved in a bad beat total for the second straight week, although this one wasn't nearly as raw as last week.
-- The Coastal Carolina-Ga. Southern game had a total of just 45. That looked super highin the fourth quarter, with Coastal trailing 10-7 midway through the final period. They booted a field goal to make it 10-10. The teams went to overtime, and suddenly the offensive spigot was turned on, as the teams exchanged touchdowns in both the first and second overtimes, to push the total over. Eventually it was GSU pulling out the 30-27 victory. You'll definitely be seeing this one on Scott Van Pelt's segment.
-- Indiana was up 31-28 with just under three minutes to go at Maryland. They kicked the field goal with 2:49 to go, serving up Terps side bettors a slight bad beat -- although really, it was just a backdoor cover.
-- With 2:27 to go, Auburn scored a meaningless touchdown in terms of the result. They were up 44-10 with 2:27 to go before scoring a touchdown to make it 51-10. If you were holding an 'under' (55) ticket, that was bad news.
-- In the Middle Tennessee-North Texas game, there were 53 points on the board with a total of 59.5 on the board. The Blue Raiders scored a touchdown to tie the game 30-30. Total bettors were wishing they went for two, and missed it. Eventually UNT kicked a field goal to win it 33-30 at the gun, crushing anyone who had a Blue Raiders ML ticket.
-- Over bettors in Charlotte-Western Kentucky looked to be in good shape with 44 points on the board through three quarters. They needed just four points, but received a scoreless fourth quarter instead.
