Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

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No. 12 Baylor beats West Virginia 17-14 to improve to 8-0
October 31, 2019
By The Associated Press


WACO, Texas (AP) Charlie Brewer threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns and John Mayers kicked a go-ahead 36-yard field goal to help No. 12 Baylor win its 10th game in a row, 17-14 over West Virginia on Thursday night.

The Bears (8-0, 5-0 Big 12), who two seasons ago won only one game, are the league's only undefeated team - and one of eight remaining among FBS teams.

Mayers' kick with 10:19 left broke a 14-all tie and put Baylor ahead to stay after a 13-play drive that took more than 6 minutes off the clock on an often frustrating night offensively for the Bears.

West Virginia (3-5, 1-4) had eight quarterback sacks. With second-and-goal from the 1 late in the second quarter, Baylor was stuffed for no gain on three consecutive plays and had to settle for a 7-0 halftime lead.

Still, the Bears avoided what happened last Saturday, when while they had an open date the Big 12's other three ranked teams that did play lost. That included Oklahoma's loss at Kansas State that left Baylor alone atop the conference standings.

After R.J. Sneed botched a punt return that was recovered at the Baylor 34, West Virginia couldn't get a first down. Casey Legg kicked the ball through the uprights on a 43-yard field goal attempt, but the Mountaineers were penalized for delay of game and had to try again. Nose tackle Bravvion Roy blocked Legg's 48-yard attempt with 3 1/2 minutes left.

The Mountaineers had two big plays for their touchdowns. George Campbell had an 83-yard catch-and-run from Austin Kendall on the first play after a punt, and Winston Wright went 95 yards for the Mountaineers' first kickoff return for a touchdown in five years.

Wright's return was on the ensuing kick after Brewer's 21-yard TD pass to Denzel Mims, who opened the second half by fumbling at the end of a 30-yard reception on his first catch since taking a hard hit early in the game.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN 24, NO. 20 APPALACHIAN STATE 21

BOONE, N.C. (AP) - Wesley Kennedy ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns and Georgia Southern upset Appalachian State for the second straight season.

The Eagles (5-3, 3-1 Sun Belt) ran for 335 yards and held the country's ninth-highest scoring offense in check most of the night on a rainy, windy Halloween night. Georgia Southern ended Appalachian State's 13-game winning streak, handing the Mountaineers their first loss since the Eagles knocked off them out of the Top 25 more than a year ago with a 34-14 victory.

Kennedy took an option pitch from Shai Werts and raced 68 yards for a touchdown on the first possession of the second half, and Werts blew through a huge hole and raced 55 yards on the ensuing possession to give the Eagles a 24-7 lead.

Appalachian State (7-1, 4-1) came in averaging 41 points, but struggled to get any momentum going for the first three quarters other than a 92-yard touchdown drive in the final 2 minutes of the first half. Zac Thomas tried to rally App State with two fourth-quarter TD passes to Corey Sutton, but the Mountaineers' final two drives ended without any points. Thomas threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns.
 

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CFB OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/31/2019................1-3-0.........25.00%............-11.50
10/26/2019.............41-27-2.........60.29%...........+56.50
10/25/2019................0-2-0...........0.00% ...........-11.00
10/24/2019................2-0-0........100.00% ..........+10.00
10/19/2019.............20-31-0.........39.22%............-70.50
10/18/2019................7-1-0.........87.50%...........+29.50
10/17/2019................3-1-0.........75.00%............+9.50
10/16/2019................1-1-0.........50.00%..............-0.50
10/12/2019.............27-22-0.........55.10%..........+14.00
10/11/2019................2-4-0.........33.33%............-12.00
10/10/2019................0-4-0...........0.00%............-22.00
10/09/2019................1-1-0..........50.00%.............-0.50
10/05/2019.............34-31-0..........52.30%.............-0.50
10/04/2019................2-2-0...........50.00%............-1.00
10/03/2019................1-3-0...........25.00%...........-11.50
..

Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/31/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............0 - 2.............-11.00.............-16.50
10/26/2019.............12 - 10........+6.20..............12 - 5...........+32.50............+38.70
10/25/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
10/24/2019..............1 - 0...........+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
10/19/2019............12 - 24.........-72.00.............8 - 2..............+1.50..............-70.50
10/18/2019.............3 - 0...........+15.00.............2 - 1.............+4.50..............+19.50
10/17/2019..............1 - 1...........-0.50...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+9.50
10/16/2019..............0 - 1...........-5.50...............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-0.50
10/12/2019............19 - 14.........+18.00............7 - 7..............-3.50..............+14.50
10/11/2019.............1 - 2............-6.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............0 - 2..............-11.00............-22.00
10/09/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 -0..............+5.00..............-0.50
10/05/2019............23 - 21..........-0.50..............12 - 8.............+16.00...........+15.50
10/04/2019.............1 - 1............-0.50................1 - 1..............-0.50..............-1.00
10/03/2019.............0 - 2............-11.00..............1 - 2..............-6.00..............-17.00


Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80
 

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Friday?s 6-pack

Monmouth College ran a poll of favorite Halloween candies:

? Reese?s Peanut Butter Cups: 36%

? Snickers: 18%

? M&M?s: 11%

? Hershey bars: 6%

? Candy corn: 6%

? Skittles: 5%

Quote of the Day
?You must do the thing which you think you cannot do.?
Eleanor Roosevelt

Friday?s quiz
Who coached the Arizona Cardinals in their one Super Bowl?

Thursday?s quiz
Karl Malone has made the most free throws in NBA history (9,787)

Wednesday?s quiz
Dave Wannstedt was the Miami Dolphins? coach last time they won a playoff game, in 2000.

**********************

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here?..

13) Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Padres signed Manny Machado, but Washington won the World Series. Here is the money Washington spent on pitching:

? Strasburg: seven years, $175M
? Scherzer: seven years, $210M
? Corbin: six years, $140M
? Sanchez: two years, $19M

Starting pitching still matters.

12) Gerrit Cole is about to break the bank in free agency; wonder what his agent?s blood pressure was Wednesday night when Cole started throwing in the bullpen, three nights after he threw 110 pitches Sunday. Don?t want the star client getting hurt.

Lets say Cole banks $35M a year for four years in his next contract (Zack Greinke makes that now); the agent?s take (3%) of all that would be $4,200,000.

11) 49ers 28, Cardinals 25? 49ers led 28-14 but Arizona kept America entertained until the end; Garoppolo was 27-36/306 and four TD?s passng, as the 49ers improved to 8-0.

10) When the Rams traded injured CB Aqib Talib to Miami this week, you figure Talib would be insulted or ticked off, but because of state income tax laws, Talib actually saves $560,000- he moved from California to Florida, where taxes are lower. Good week for him.

9) Two of my favorite NBA players to watch are both on the Clippers; Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell; they aren?t stat guys, they just work their butts off and make life uncomfortable for their opponents. Guys like that make life easier for the stat guys.

8) Baylor 17, West Virginia 14? Bears improve to 8-0, even though they?ve been favored only twice in their last five games. Baylor has three wins by 3 or fewer points.

7) NFL road teams are 71-45-2 ATS so far this season.

6) Jimmy Butler?s stats in Miami?s 106-97 win over Atlanta Thursday: 5 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists, 6 steals and 3 blocks. Heat was +21 with Butler on the floor, -12 with hm off the floor. You don?t have to score all the time to be a difference maker.

5) Wayne Ellington has scored 5,298 points in his 11-year NBA career; Knicks are the ninth NBA team he?s played for. His best scoring year was two years ago, when he scored 11.8 ppg for Miami.

Ellington played three years at North Carolina, scoring 14.7 ppg, was 28th player taken in the 2009 Draft. Betcha he could write a helluva book, playing on nine teams in 11 years.

4) Georgia Southern 24, Appalachian State 21? Mountaineers had gotten up to #20 in country, but then lost at home on national TV to their longtime rivals from back in their I-AA days.

3) Joel Embiid and Karl Anthony Towns both got suspended two games for their part in a small scuffle during Wednesday?s game. On NBA TV, couple of retired players were laughing, saying that back in the 90?s, when the NBA game was much more physical than it is now, the players wouldn?t even have gotten tossed out of the game.

2) Kansas City Royals named former Cardinal skipper Mike Matheny their new manager; he was 591-474 in seven years in St Louis, 21-22 in playoff games, but he missed the playoffs this last three years, which is why the Cardinals told him to take a hike.

1) Only 105 days until pitchers/catchers report for the 2020 baseball season.
 

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by: Monty Andrews


NO EARLY MERCY

The Navy Midshipmen are in great position to continue their lengthy unbeaten run Friday night as they face off against the host UConn Huskies. Navy comes in armed with the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation at more than 350 yards per game, and should feast on a Huskies run defense ranked outside the top 100 this season and coming off a last-place FBS finish a season ago. And Navy hasn't exactly eased into games this season; the Midshipmen own the No. 7 first-half scoring mark in the country against fellow FBS programs, having averaged 23.7 points prior to the break.

Navy looks like a New Year's 6 Bowl candidate, while UConn looks like it's already focused on 2020. We like the Midshipmen to put this one away early, making good on the first-half cover.


NO ORANGE CRUSH

Is this the week the Syracuse Orange's beleaguered offensive line gets some relief? Bettors will be curious to see as the Orange look to shake out of their offensive doldrums Saturday against visiting Boston College. Syracuse comes into this one having allowed an NCAA-high 42 sacks through the first eight games; only eight schools allowed 40+ sacks all of last season. But the Eagles are equally inept when it comes to getting to the quarterback, having compiled just eight sacks through eight games (sixth-fewest in the country). It's a big reason why Boston College allows nearly 300 passing yards per game.

With the BC passing game in tatters and Syracuse averaging 37.7 points over its previous three home games, we like the Orange to exert its superiority on offense and convert the cover.


THAT LITTLE EXTRA

The Illinois Fighting Illini have plenty working in their favor as they bring a two-game winning streak into Saturday's meeting with visiting Rutgers. And while they failed to cover the only other time they were favored by 20+ points since 2016, they should see a few extra possessions this weekend ? and that should make the cover easier. Illinois has forced an incredible 19 turnovers on the season, second-most in the country, and its plus-9 turnover margin ranks sixth overall. Rutgers, on the other hand, has turned it over a staggering 15 times in eight games with a minus-9 turnover differential.

If those trends continue this weekend, the Illini will find themselves in prime position to put six points on the board via a fumble recovery or interception ? so the defensive/special teams TD is worth a look here at +200.


TROJANS IN TROUBLE

There's another game featuring a potential turnover mismatch, and this one's taking place out West as the USC Trojans host the Oregon Ducks in a pivotal Pac-12 showdown Saturday night. The Ducks have gone without a turnover in five of their previous six games while boasting an impressive +11 turnover differential for the season (tied for third-best in FBS). The Trojans have been better at the turnover game in recent weeks but are still among the worst teams in the country with a minus-6 turnover margin. USC also has just three interceptions, while the Ducks have thrown only one pick all season.

The Trojans have been a formidable home opponent this season, but with oddsmakers calling for this game to be a close one, even one extra possession can make a huge difference. We're leaning toward Oregon to cover.
 

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Navy at Connecticut
Matt Blunt

Navy at Connecticut
Venue/Location: Renschler Field, Storrs, CT
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 1 (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Navy -27.5, Total 55


Visibility on the national stage is one of the greatest recruitment tools there is for any college football program, and that may be the nicest thing I can say about the excitement level for Friday's showcase game between Navy and Connecticut.

The American Conference as a whole would definitely prefer to see two of their other programs take center stage in the stand alone spot on Friday night, but they do get center stage in prime time on Saturday with Memphis hosting SMU on national television. Everyone's got to start somewhere though and for this weekend, we get this Navy/Connecticut game with the Midshipmen as nearly four-TD road favorites.

Navy will never turn down a showcase spot, but recruitment isn't a huge issue for them given their uniqueness as a program ? on and off the field. At 6-1 SU, this is a great spot for them to showcase their winning ways, but I can't imagine there is too much intrinsic motivation to be at their best in a game they are expected to win big.

Conversely, Connecticut football fans probably didn't know that words like ?national television?, ?stand alone prime time game? and ?Friday night lights? would ever be applied to their team. This Huskies team hasn't had a winning season since 2010, and with a 7-29 SU record over the past three years, and coming into this week at 2-6 SU, they've really done little to deserve this showcase spot.

Yet here they are, under the lights in a game that's got to intrinsically feel like a Bowl game for them with all the ESPN camera crews around. They'll take whatever time they can get nationally to showcase the university, and hopefully, from their standpoint at least, it isn't a complete and utter embarrassment.

So after connecting on the 'over' in the USC/Colorado game last Friday night, can we find a winner in a game like this that really isn't all that intriguing at all?

There is no argument that Navy is by far the better football team in this game and in all likelihood should come away with a relatively easy win on the scoreboard. Connecticut gives up 37.8 points per game as it is, and with that essentially being the exact same number Navy's offense has put up per game this season (37.9), Navy should spoil the party early for home fans looking to be witnesses to a shocking upset.

However, laying that kind of chalk on the road with a Navy team that's just 1-1 SU and ATS on the road this year is not something I'm interested in even entertaining as a betting option given the circumstances. The Midshipmen have a bye coming up after this game before the finish of their year gets exponentially harder - at Notre Dame, vs SMU, at Houston, and then vs Army ? with those first two up on the board being ranked foes currently. Focus levels aren't likely to be 100% for Navy here in a game they know they'll win, and with the style they play that shortens games already, being expected to win by this big of a margin is a tough wager to get behind.

We also can't forget about Connecticut likely treating this prime time spot at home as their Bowl game, and coming off a 56-35 win over a much worse Massachusetts team a week ago, it's not like the confidence meter is empty for the Huskies coming into this one. They know they are a bad team overall, but bad teams cover numbers too, and getting this many points at home his highly intriguing on the surface, without the extra situational stuff that is generally positive for Connecticut as well.

The Huskies have covered the number two straight weeks, and hung tough at home two weeks ago when Houston was in town and laying a similar number. In fact, Connecticut's worst loss at home this year was by just 26 points (vs USF), with the other two coming by just single digits.

Navy is on a 1-5 ATS run on the road against a team with a losing record at home which does suggest there will be some complacency on their side in this game, and barring Connecticut shooting themselves in the foot on numerous drives, if both teams use a heavy dose of the running attack on offense, there might not be enough time or possessions for Navy to stay clear of this number.

Service academies aren't ones to generally step out of their comfort zone and try many new things in terms of the passing game, but given who's on tap for Navy down the road, it wouldn't hurt them to try a few more passes here to at least get that stuff on film and force the Notre Dame's and SMU's of the world to be prepared for it.

There is no better game to try that stuff then one you are expected to win easily, and if they were to do so here, it could play into the Huskies hands in regards to staying within this number simply because the execution may not be where it should be. Remember, Navy's got two weeks after this game to prepare for the Irish, and what they put on film in the passing game here may look a lot worse then it does down the road.

A final score of something like 38-14 in favor of Navy is where this game likely ends up, as the lack of energy from there perspective will show up on defense, compared to Connecticut's desire to not get embarrassed on this type of stage. There aren't many in the market who want to have their money riding with a team as bad as Connecticut is, but in this case it's the only way to go in my opinion.
 

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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NAVY at CONN 08:00 PM

NAVY -26.0 *****

U 53.5 *****
 

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Midshipmen stay afloat in AAC title race with rout of UConn
November 1, 2019


EAST HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 165 yards and another score Friday night in leading the Midshipmen to a 56-10 rout of UConn.

It was the fifth straight 100-yard rushing game for the senior, who eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing for the third consecutive season.

The win keeps the Midshipmen (7-1, 5-1 American) within striking distance of undefeated No. 15 SMU in the AAC West Division.

Freshman Jack Zergiotis threw for 205 yards and a touchdown for UConn (2-7, 0-5), but had three turnovers including two first-half interceptions that led to Navy scoring drives.

Perry scored on his first carry, spinning past the line of scrimmage and going 58 yards down the numbers on the right side of the field. He also had a 58-yard touchdown pass in the first half, hitting Mychal Cooper down the middle one play after Zergiotis' second interception. It was one of just six passes thrown by Perry, who completed three of them, all for more than 30 yards.

Zergiotis' first pick set Navy up on a 49-yard Navy drive that ended with a 13-yard run up the gut by Jamale Carothers. The sophomore fullback added touchdown runs of 23 and 6 yards in the second half.

The Huskies were still in the game with a first down on Navy's 2-yard line and less than a minute to play in the first half. But Jacob Springer Jr. forced a Zergiotis fumble on third down and the Midshipmen led 28-10 at intermission.

Navy finished with 573 yards of offense, including 408 on the ground.

Kevin Mensah had 107 yards rushing for UConn.

THE TAKEAWAY

Navy: Perry becomes the second player in Navy history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in three straight seasons, joining Keenan Reynolds who accomplished the feat in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

UConn: The Huskies losing streak against American Athletic Conference opponents is now 16. UConn snapped a 22-game losing streak against all opponents from the Bowl Subdivision last week with a win over UMass.

UP NEXT

Navy: The Midshipmen are off until Nov. 16, when they visit South Bend, Indiana, for their annual game against Notre Dame.

UConn: The Huskies travel to Cincinnati a week from Saturday to face the East Division leading Bearcats.
 

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CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/01/2019 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

Totals...............1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS...................1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80
 

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Saturday?s 6-pack

Too-early odds to win the 2020 World Series:

4-1? Houston

9-2? LA Dodgers

6-1? Bronx

9-1? Boston

10-1? Washington

12-1? Atlanta

Quote of the Day
?Let?s just say that I thought we?d be better than this.?
Cowboys? owner Jerry Jones

Saturday?s quiz
Who is the oldest head coach in the NFL this year?

Friday?s quiz
Ken Whisenhunt coached the Arizona Cardinals in their one Super Bowl.

Thursday?s quiz
Karl Malone has made the most free throws in NBA history (9,787)

*************************

Saturday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??

13) Genuinely weird stat: NFL quarterbacks making their first career start this year are 8-0 ATS, 4-3-1 SU. Sunday, Denver?s Brandon Allen, Washington?s Dwayne Haskins become QB?s #9-10 to make his first career start.

12) If you?re into betting NBA games, make damn sure you know Kawhi Leonard?s status before wagering on a Clippers? game; that may sound obvious, but sometimes life is simple.

So far this season, the Clippers are +54 with Leonard on the floor, -26 with him off the floor.

11) There are 45 NBA players this season who are making $25M+.

10) In the Super Bowl era before this year, 25 teams started a season 8-0; of those 25 teams, 14 made it to the Super Bowl, going 8-6, with ?09 Saints the last 8-0 team to win a title. The seventeen 8-0 teams that made it to a conference title game went 14-3.

49ers and Patriots are 8-0 right now. 49ers and the 2013 Chiefs are the only teams in NFL history to start 8-0 after winning four or fewer games the previous season.

9) NFL teams with most snaps played by rookies this season:
? Giants 2,907
? Jaguars 2,417
? Raiders 2,352

8) NFL teams with most salary cap dollar on IR:
? Steelers $37.6M
? Jaguars $33.3M
? Texans $31.6M

7) Last six teams to play Game 7 of a finals series at home:
2019 Astros- lost to Washington
2019 Bruins- lost to St Louis
2017 Dodgers- lost to Houston
2016 Warriors- lost Cleveland
2016 Indians- lost to Chicago Cubs
2014 Royals- Lost to San Francisco

6) Wednesday night, Golden State was down 43-14 at home to the Phoenix Suns; they were down 37 at the half in Oklahoma Sunday. Going to be a long winter for the Warriors, who did win one of their first four games, but two really ugly losses in the first ten days of the season isn?t good.

Golden State could have a dismal year, get a lottery pick, then have Klay Thompson back next season and have themselves a contending team again in 2020-21. There is precedent for this??

From 1993-96, San Antonio won 55-62-59 games, then in ?96-?97, David Robinson got hurt and the Spurs went 20-62. They drafted a kid named Tim Duncan and haven?t missed the playoffs since then, winning five NBA titles.

5) Seattle Seahawks claimed WR Josh Gordon off waivers from New England. Talented yet troubled, the talented guys always get multiple chances.

4) CBS told golf analysts Gary McCord, Peter Kostis to take a hike; the two analysts have a combined 59 years of experience at CBS. CBS signed Davis Love III to replace McCord.

3) Last time 15th-ranked SMU was ranked this high in football? 1985.

2) From Mike Clay: New Orleans Saints? WR Michael Thomas has 73 receptions in 8 games, which puts him on pace for 146 catches, which would break Marvin Harrison?s single-season record of 143 set in 2002.

Despite all that, Thomas doesn?t have a single end zone target this season; he?s scored four TD?s anyway. .

1) If I never hear the phrase ?Quid Pro Quo? again, it?ll be too damn soon, except when Mr Chow says it in The Hangover, a very funny movie. Then its OK.
 

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Total Moves - Week 10
October 31, 2019
By Matt Blunt


College Football Week 10 Total Moves

After three straight weeks of pushing with these total plays, stepping out with three of them last week got a defined result, just not the one I was looking for.

Indiana and Nebraska was a back-and-forth shootout that saw Indiana's streak of scoring 30+ get extended to five straight games. That game had little chance to stay low after 37 total points in the first half for one of the negative plays on the card.

The other selection that failed to get there was the 'over' in Virginia/Louisville, as they fell a FG short of pushing on 52; a total that closed even lower then that. In terms of game script, that game brought no complaints about coming up short, it was just one of those contests where the initial move down proved to be correct and you can do nothing else but move on from it.

The lone winner came from the highest profile game, as Auburn/LSU never came close to sniffing the high 50's as those SEC defenses showed up and balled out. It was arguably the second stiff test that Joe Burrow and that LSU offense has faced this year (the other being Florida) from a defensive standpoint, and Auburn made sure they weren't going to get embarrassed by watching that LSU run up and down the field against them.

It does beg the question though of whether or not more and more film on this LSU offense and Joe Burrow could end up being LSU's undoing, as the opposition has more evidence of what works and what doesn't against him, how to disguise coverages and/or confuse him, and play-calling patterns LSU may have been falling into. I'm sure those are the types of things Nick Saban and Alabama are spending this week identifying ahead of that huge showdown with LSU next Saturday.

We've still got a week of games to get through until that huge 2nd Saturday in November, and after last week's 1-2 record, it's back to just a single play from each category this week in hopes of sweeping the board.

YTD: 10-9 ATS

Week 10 Total move to disagree with:

SMU/Memphis from 70 to 71.5


This is a huge game in the American conference as SMU and Memphis are getting the full prime time treatment with College Game Day being there. SMU is a perfect 8-0 SU thanks in large part to an offense that's scored 34 or more points in all eight games, including a run of 40 or more in six straight games before having it snapped last week.

Memphis is also a program built to win with their offense as they've put up 35+ in all but one of their seven games since a sluggish season opener, and have hit the 40+ point mark in five of their eight games on the season.

You get two teams like that squaring off in prime time it's got to be an easy 'over' right?

Statistically speaking, everything does point to this 'over' being the only way to look at this total and with support of 85%+ currently here on Thursday afternoon, the betting market has voiced that same opinion so far this week. After all, when you've got two teams that have scored 34 or more points in 14 of their 16 total games this year, it's easy to surmise that this game that these two will put up that number on one another, and then all it takes is one more TD from someone to get 'over' this current total. I mean, Memphis is 6-2 O/U this year and SMU is 7-1 O/U, so how can you not like the 'over' here.

Well for one, that's always going to be the popular belief in a game like this, and while popular/public sides do win each week, I'm not so sure that will be the case here. In a game that features two teams that are so good at scoring, totals are always going to be shaded to the high side of things because oddsmakers understand that that's going to be the prevailing belief. So just from a line perspective, there is always going to be some intrinsic value in going the other way ? as there would be in going 'over' the number in a game between two very good defensive teams that has a low total posted.

That means that you've got a case where there is a good chance the true number oddsmakers believe this line to be at is likely a point or two lower then it opened, knowing they'd get bulk support on the 'over' and they can adjust it even higher accordingly. Heck, by the time the full effect of the College Game Day hype machine does its work on previewing this game, we are likely to see this total climb even higher into the mid-70's by kickoff. If that's the case you may hear me complain about giving out this play on a bad number, but there really is no harm in waiting because this number won't dip any lower then the opener of 70 ? which I suggested was shaded high in the first place.

Furthermore, this game isn't short on having high stakes attached to it, given that SMU is undefeated and ranked for the first time in forever, and are still battling with Memphis (and Navy) for a West division crown in the AAC. Yes, both teams have to be confident in their ability to move the ball and score a TD when needed, but I'd venture a guess that the bulk of the work in practice this week ? for both sides ? is on the defensive side of things to make sure they can also get that key stop when needed. Last year's game closed with a total of 74.5 and the final score of 28-18 never came close to that. Clearly both coaching staffs have an idea on how to slow down the opposition's attack, and even accounting for adjustments made on both sides in that regard, I do think we get some solid defensive play here.

This total fits into one of those situations where the 'over' looks like one of the easiest bets on the board and given that the game gets the national spotlight too, everyone wants to take the 'easy' option on a game they know they'll be able to watch. You'll hear things like ?I can't stomach an 'under' play with these two teams? and statements along those lines, which will only push this total higher and higher.

Sure we could end up getting a shootout where the first to 50 wins, it's not like I've got all the answers either. But given how the entirety of this game sets up in that it's two high-powered offenses on the national stage with a tremendous amount to play for on both sides, I think the severe offensive explosion that all of these 'over' bettors expect ends up being a little bit more of a whimper relative to expectation.

It's not like we can't have a highly entertaining 37-31 game right?

Week 10 Total move to agree with:

Michigan/Maryland from 55.5 to 56


Not exactly the biggest move by any means here, but that's actually beneficial for this section of the piece where you aren't looking to bet into severely bad numbers.

But this is a spot where this Michigan team ? especially on defense ? isn't all there in terms of a mental/focus perspective, as they are coming off two huge games in prime time themselves. Obviously the 1-1 SU record vs Penn State and Notre Dame wanted to be better from a Michigan standpoint, but they got their win in a big game by beating the Irish last week, and now they've got to turn around and play a Maryland team that's no threat at all. Not to mention they've got a big rivalry game vs Michigan State on deck, which it never matters how good or bad the Spartans are in a particular year, that game is always going to get plenty of focus.

Michigan will likely take heed of what happened to Wisconsin in a similar spot a few weeks ago when they fell to Illinois, but I don't expect the Wolverines to be anywhere near their sharpest here as they know they can leave town with a win as long as they execute offensively. Given that Maryland has allowed 34+ points to every Big 10 foe they've played not-named Rutgers, scoring on offense shouldn't be an issue for the Wolverines here.

We will need Maryland to pull their weight enough to get this one into the high 50's though and that's where the talk about Michigan not being at their sharpest comes in. As 21-point road chalk all it takes is a few early scores by the Wolverines to take control of this game and then play soft shell or prevent defense the rest of the way. That's conducive to Maryland points as the saying ?prevent defense only prevents you from winning? takes shape in that regard. Not that Maryland will likely win this game, but scoring 20 or so themselves isn't a huge ask considering they've put up 48 and 28 points in their two previous opportunities of rebounding from a performance of scoring 17 or less this year.

Finally, if this game does end up being much closer then the point spread suggests and Maryland is threatening to pull off a shocking upset, the likelihood of that being the case in a lower-scoring game is rather low. So that's working in the favor of an 'over' play as well.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Northwestern-Indiana: 45.5 to 43.5
Tulsa-Tulane: 62 to 60


Up
UNLV-Colorado State: 61.5 to 65
UTEP-North Texas: 58 to 60
Miami-Florida State: 46 to 48
 

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Georgia vs. Florida
November 1, 2019
By Brian Edwards


No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Florida Gators
Venue/Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -6, Total 45.5

All that?s at stake in Jacksonville for Florida and Georgia on Saturday is an inside track to winning the SEC East, staying alive in hopes of making the College Football Playoff, denying the right for the other to enjoy the aforementioned fruits and ? of course ? 365 days of bragging rights with a bitter, border rival.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had the Bulldogs installed as six-point favorites with a total of 45.5. The Gators were +190 on the money line.

Georgia (6-1 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) is off a 21-0 win over Kentucky as a 23.5-point home favorite. The 21 combined points ducked ?under? the 46-point total in a game that was played in wet and rainy conditions. In fact, the game remained scoreless until UGA drew first blood on a D?Andre Swift 39-yard touchdown run with 6:20 left in the third quarter.

Brian Herrien added an eight-yard TD scamper for a 14-0 lead with 1:54 remaining in the third. Swift?s three-yard TD run with 6:24 left provided the final scoring.

Georgia had advantages of 14-9 in first downs and 279-180 in total offense. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm completed 9-of-12 passes for a career-low 35 yards, while Swift ran 21 times for 179 yards and a pair of TDs. Herrien produced 60 rushing yards and one TD on 13 carries.

Kirby Smart?s team started the year with wins at Vanderbilt (30-6), vs. Murray St. (63-17), vs. Arkansas St. (55-0), vs. Notre Dame (23-17) and at Tennessee (43-14). However, in a Week 7 home game vs. South Carolina, the Gamecocks came into Athens and captured a 20-17 win in double overtime as 21-point road underdogs.

Fromm entered the game without an interception, but he was picked off three times by South Carolina sophomore CB Israel Mukuamu. South Carolina could?ve won in the first overtime after Mukuamu intercepted Fromm for a third time on the first possession, but Parker White pushed a potential game-winning field goal wide right.

In the second extra session, however, White buried a 24-yard field goal. Rodrigo Blankenship, who might be the second-best kicker in UGA history behind Kevin Butler, had a chance to answer but hooked his FGA from more than 40 yards out.

South Carolina lost starting QB Ryan Hilinski to a knee injury in the second quarter, forcing Will Muschamp to turn to a third-string QB (considering how Week 1 starter Jake Bentley is out with a season-ending injury). Hilinski was hot, too, completing 15-of-20 passes for 116 yards and one TD without an interception. His 46-yard TD pass to Bryan Edwards put the Gamecocks ahead 7-3 late in the opening stanza.

With the score knotted at 10-10, the game turned on Mukuamu?s 53-yard pick-six with 1:00 left until halftime. Georgia got a six-yard TD run from Demetris Robertson with 1:48 remaining to force overtime.

Fromm has connected on 123-of-174 passes (70.7%) for 1,406 yards with a 9/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. True freshman WR George Pickens has a team-best 23 catches for 318 yards and two TDs, while Lawrence Cager has 19 receptions for 245 yards and three TDs.

Cager, who missed the win over Kentucky with an injured shoulder, is listed as ?questionable.? Herrien is also a question mark with a back injury, in addition to CB Tyson Campbell, CB Mark Webb and DE Jordan Davis.

UGA has two other notable threats in its WR group, Demetris Robertson and Dominick Blaylock. Robertson, who was a five-star recruit out of Savannah, GA., that started his career at California, has 18 catches for 205 yards and three TDs.

Junior RB D?Andre Swift leads the SEC in both rushing yards (752) and TDs (seven). Swift is averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Herrien has run for 311 yards and five TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. Redshirt freshman Zamir White has 245 rushing yards, two TDs and a 6.3 YPC average.

Kirby Smart?s team is ranked No. 15 in the country in rushing yards and No. 24 in scoring with its 36.0 points-per-game average. Fromm has been sacked only four times this year, with three of those coming in the loss to South Carolina.

UGA is seventh in the nation in total defense, fifth in run defense and fifth in scoring ?D? (10.6 points per game). The Bulldogs? stop unit is led by junior LB Monty Rice, who has a team-high 41 tackles to go with three QB hurries and one pass broken up. Freshman LB Azeez Ojulari has a team-high 3.5 sacks and 14 QB hurries.

Florida (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) owns wins vs. Miami (24-20 in Orlando), vs. UT-Martin (45-0), at Kentucky (29-21), vs. Tennessee (34-3), vs. Towson (38-0), vs. Auburn (24-13) and at South Carolina (38-27). The UF defense came up large late in the fourth quarter against the Hurricanes in an Aug. 24 season opener.

After fourth-year junior QB Feleipe Franks went down with a season-ending injury in the third quarter at Kentucky, Kyle Trask rallied Florida from a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit to win a 29-21 decision as a 9.5-point road favorite. Trask, another fourth-year junior signal caller, had not started a game since his freshman year of high school (when he was the back-up to Houston star QB D?Eriq King), but he has been outstanding since taking over for Franks.

Trask completed 19-of-31 throws for 234 yards and two TDs without an interception against Auburn. He was sharp in UF?s only defeat as well, throwing for 310 yards and three TDs compared to one interception in a 42-28 loss at LSU that was a much closer game than the final score indicated.

Dan Mullen?s squad came up empty on a pair of fourth-and-goal attempts in the fourth quarter against the Tigers, who were aided by injuries to UF?s two best pass rushers, preseason All-American DE Jabari Zuniga and DE Jonathan Greenard. Zuniga didn?t play against Tennessee or Auburn after spraining his ankle in the third quarter of the victory at Kentucky. He tried to give it a go against LSU but clearly wasn?t 100 percent and eventually left the game.

Greenard injured his ankle the week before LSU against Auburn. He left the game after the first series in Baton Rouge. Zuniga and Greenard both sat out in the win over the Gamecocks. Both edge rushers have been listed as ?probable? since Monday.

Greenard, a junior who transferred to UF from Louisville, has played like an All-American since donning the orange and blue colors. He has recorded 28 tackles, seven QB hurries, four sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three PBU, one forced fumble and one interception. Zuniga has been limited to just four games, producing 11 tackles, three sacks, 2.5 TFL?s and one QB hurry.

UF will also welcome the return of explosive WR Kadarius Toney, who hasn?t played since sustaining a wrist injury in the Week 2 win over UT-Martin. Toney, who is listed as ?probable,? turned a receiver screen into a 66-yard TD catch in the opener against Miami. The junior wideout produced 10.9 yards on 46 touches in 2018, including the-game winning TD pass in a 13-6 victory at Mississippi St. Toney played QB in high school and is sometimes featured in the Wildcat formation.

Florida went into the fourth quarter trailing South Carolina, 20-17, only to explode for 21 points in the final stanza. Trask found Freddie Swain for a 25-yard TD pass to put the Gators up 24-20 with 9:54 remaining. Next, Trask hit TE Kyle Pitts with a five-yard scoring strike. Finally, a five-yard TD toss to Trevon Grimes made it 38-20 with 4:02 left.

Trask threw for 200 yards and four TDs with one interception at South Carolina. Dameon Pierce produced 87 rushing yards and one TD on seven carries, while LaMical Perine had 68 rushing yards on 14 totes. Redshirt freshman WR Jacob Copeland had three receptions for 89 yards and one TD.

For the season, Trask has completed 67.5 percent of his throws for 1,391 yards with a 14/4 TD-INT ratio. Emory Jones, the redshirt freshman QB who saw significant playing time against Auburn and LSU, has connected on 17-of-28 (60.7%) passes for 125 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jones has run for 116 yards and one TD, averaging 6.1 YPC.

Pitts is enjoying a breakout campaign as a true sophomore, hauling in a team-high 35 receptions for 391 yards and four TDs. Swain has 21 catches for 339 yards and four TDs, while Van Jefferson has 21 grabs for 331 yards and three TDs.

Perine has 461 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 4.7 YPC. Peirce has 248 rushing yards and three TDs on 35 attempts for a 7.1 YPC average.

Florida is ranked 25th in the nation in total defense and 12 in scoring ?D? (15.8 PPG). Senior LB David Reese is second in the SEC in tackles with 66. He has one TFL and one sack. Junior cornerback CJ Henderson, who was a second-team All-SEC selection last season, paces the SEC in PBU with nine even though he?s played in only five games. Henderson was injured against UT-Martin and missed the next three contests.

The ?under? is 5-2 overall for UGA, cashing at a 4-1 clip in its past five contests. The Bulldogs have seen their games average combined scores of 46.6 PPG.

The ?under? is 5-3 overall for the Gators, who have seen their games average combined scores of 48.2 PPG. However, UF has seen back-to-back games ?over? the total with combined scores of 65 and 70 points.

UF has won 21 of 29 head-to-head meetings over UGA since 1990, but the Bulldogs have prevailed in the last two meetings. They ran the Gators out of town in a 42-7 triumph two seasons ago.

Georgia pulled away from UF in the fourth quarter to win by a 36-17 count as a seven-point ?chalk? last year. Fromm was the catalyst, hitting 17-of-24 passes for 240 yards and three TDs without an interception. Swift had 104 rushing yards and one TD on 12 carries.

Friday?s weather forecast in Jacksonville was for late showers, but the chances of rain on Saturday afternoon are only 20 percent. The conditions are expected to be cloudy with a high temperature of 68 degrees.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The ?under? is 5-2-1 in the past nine UF-UGA games in Jacksonville.

-- Best ATS teams: Ohio State (7-1), Auburn (7-1), Louisiana (6-1), Clemson (6-2), SMU (6-2), Georgia State (5-1-2), Oklahoma State (6-2), Tulane (6-2) and Kentucky (6-2).

-- Worst ATS squads: Akron (0-8), UMass (1-7), Nebraska (1-7), Vanderbilt (1-6), Ga. Tech (1-6), Texas State (1-5-1), Rutgers (2-6), Bowling Green (2-6), Arkansas (2-6), Mississippi State (2-6), Syracuse (2-6), FIU (2-6), North Texas (2-6), Michigan State (2-6), Ohio (2-6), Army (2-6) and Marshall (2-6).

-- Oklahoma State won?t have star WR Tylan Wallace for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Wallace had 53 receptions for 903 yards and eight TDs in eight games for the Cowboys, who are 2.5-point home favorites Saturday vs. TCU.

-- Michigan State senior LB Joe Bachie saw his collegiate career come to a premature end Thursday when the NCAA suspended him for testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing drug. Bachie was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection in 2017 and a fourth-team All-American for the Spartans last year. He had 71 tackles, five TFL?s, four PBU, 3.5 sacks, three QB hurries and one interception in 2019.

-- The ?under? has cashed in five straight Utah State games. The Aggies host BYU on Saturday at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Gary Andersen?s team listed as a three-point home favorite vs. the Cougars, who will be without a pair of starters on the offensive line (Tristen Hoge and Kieffer Longson). The total was 50.5 points.

-- Indiana LB Thomas Allen is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Allen, a sophomore who had 28 tackles, two TFL?s, one sack and one interception in 2018, had recorded 17 tackles and 0.5 TFL?s before going down. IU quarterback Michael Penix is ?questionable? Saturday vs. Northwestern, so Payton Ramsey will likely get the starting nod. Ramsey has completed 72.1 percent of his passes with an 8/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- Northwestern DE Ernest Brown is out at IU with an undisclosed season-ending injury. Brown had 22 tackles, four sacks, 3.5 TFL?s, four QB hurries and three PBU for the Wildcats last year. In 2019, he produced 15 tackles, two sacks, 0.5 TFL?s and two PBU in six games. Don?t blame Northwestern?s issues on senior DE Joe Gaziano, who was a second-team All-Big-Ten selection in 2018. Gaziano has 31 tackles, 5.5 sacks, three TFL?s, three forced fumbles, one QB hurry and one PBU. Pat Fitzgerald?s team is one of the nation?s biggest disappointments, and it?s all on the offense. The Wildcats are last in the nation, No. 130 out of 130 FBS team, in scoring with their 10.6 PPG average. They?ve scored more than 15 points only once this year, a 30-spot in a home win over UNLV. Northwestern is an 11-point underdog at IU. The Hoosiers are 7-2 ATS in nine games as a double-digit favorite on Tom Allen?s watch.

-- Northwestern RB Isaiah Bowser and WR JJ Jefferson have both ruled ?out? at IU.

-- Three QBs were upgraded to ?probable? earlier this week: FAU?s Chris Robison, UCLA?s Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Nebraska?s Adrian Martinez.

-- Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman remains ?questionable? vs. North Carolina St. The Demon Deacons, who have had two weeks to prep for the Wolfpack, are favored by 7.5 points.

-- Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier is ?questionable? at San Jose St. The Spartans are 17-point home underdogs.

-- South Carolina RB Rico Dowdle is ?out? vs. Vanderbilt.
 

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by: Monty Andrews


NARROW WINS ARE THEIR FORTE

Wake Forest has looked impressive this season ? but a deeper look reveals a run of good fortune, as well, as the Demon Deacons host the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS, with four of their victories coming by six or fewer points. And they face two major question marks this weekend against the Wolfpack, with starting quarterback Jamie Newman's status for this weekend's game still in doubt and the Demon Deacons set to be without leading tackler Justin Strnad, who underwent season-ending biceps surgery last week.

With the Demon Deacons just 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 7+ points and NC State moving forward with a new starting QB in Devin Leary (who threw for three TDs in relief last week), we like the Wolfpack and the points.


A WHOLE LOTTA RUNNING

Pass attempts will be few and far between Saturday at Falcon Stadium as Air Force and Army tangle in an all-Armed Forces encounter. The host Falcons and Black Knights rank second and fifth, respectively, in rushing yards per game coming into the weekend. But while Air Force has also been proficient in stopping the run (limiting opponents to 92.9 yards per game on the ground), Army ranks outside the top 50 in rushing defense and has allowed 28+ points in three of its previous four games. It has also gone five consecutive games without a cover, while Air Force has covered five straight.

Air Force is averaging 40.8 points at home this season while winning all four games at Falcon Stadium by an average of 25.3 points. Look for the home side to cover despite being a sizeable favorite.


NOT GIVING AN INCH

Georgia and Florida will put their respective elite defenses on display this Saturday in Gainesville, and that could mean a major lack of scoring ? especially in the early going. Not only do the Bulldogs and Gators rank first and third, respectively, in red-zone defense for the season, they've also done a terrific job at forcing teams to go for three points, allowing just 23 touchdowns against 13 field goals. Georgia ranks 11th in the country in fewest first-quarter points allowed to FBS teams (2.3), while Florida isn't far behind in 27th spot (3.8) ? and that average shrinks to just 3.0 at home.

Bettors could go one of two ways here; the field goal as the first scoring play is a decent option at +200, as is the Under on the overall first-half total.


WHO'S LEFT?

You could hardly blame Colorado Buffaloes fans for being a little perplexed at the player exodus the team has endured this season. But it's back to on-field business Saturday as the Buffaloes visit UCLA. Three players (DB Aaron Maddox, TE Darrion Jones and LB Jacob Callier) have bolted from the team since the middle of the month, bringing the number of departures under new head coach Mel Tucker to more than a dozen. And that has played a major role in Colorado ranking 125th in the nation in total defense heading into Saturday's encounter with a Bruins team that has gone 3-1-1 ATS in its last five.

With the Bruins' offense humming (35.7 ppg over the past three games) and Colorado merely concerned with fielding a team amid a litany of departures, it's hard to go against the home team on what looks like a reasonable spread.
 

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SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BC at SYR 12:00 PM
BC +3.0

HOU at UCF 12:00 PM
UCF -21.5 *****
U 72.0 *****


MICH at MD 12:00 PM
MICH -21.5 *****
U 56.5 *****


NEB at PUR 12:00 PM
PUR +3.5

ODU at FIU 12:00 PM
ODU +17.5 *****
O 47.0 *****


UTSA at TAM 12:00 PM
TAM -37.5 *****
O 54.5 *****


NIU at CMU 12:00 PM
CMU +1.5

BUFF at EMU 12:00 PM
EMU +1.5

NCST at WAKE 12:00 PM
WAKE -8.0 *****

LIB at MASS 12:00 PM
O 70.0 *****
 

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Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here?s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in select FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

NC State at Wake Forest (-7.5/60.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN:
After bouncing back from a tough 62-59 loss to Louisville by edging Florida State, the Demon Deacons hit November with national championship aspirations. No, seriously. They?ll just have to hold serve here and pull off road upsets of Clemson and Virginia before two more wins over Duke and Syracuse in order to reach the ACC title game ahead of the defending champion Tigers. Possible but not probable, the Deacs will have to avoid an upset here to get the ball rolling and must potentially overcome the absence of senior QB Jamie Newman, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. The very capable Sam Hartman would start if Newman can?t go.

The Wolfpack are looking to get back to .500 behind new starting QB Devin Leary, who did the bulk of the work before last week?s bye in a loss at Boston College. N.C. State had a pair of October bye weeks, one to start the month and one to end it, which gives them an opporutinity to legitimately surprise Wake Forest with things they haven?t seen on film. Leary, a redshirt freshman who was third on the depth chart most of the season, will need to put up points since Wake should put up points no matter who is under center since WRs Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington are likely to have their way with N.C. State?s undersized, inexperienced corners.

Nebraska (-4/58) at Purdue, 12 p.m. ET, FOX:
These teams were expecting this opening game of November to be enormous in fueling their West Division title hopes. Instead, the ?Huskers are just hoping to avoid slipping under .500 and the Boilers are looking to begin a run of four straight wins just to finish 6-6 and move their streak of bowl bids to three. Considering they?ve still got to win at Wisconsin, that?s unlikely. Jeff Brohm?s team has had terrible luck with injuries but has also underachieved. They beat Nebraska in Lincoln for the first time ever last year but have been without standout WR Rondale Moore and probably won?t have him back from a leg injury suffered in late September.

Nebraska will finally get QB Adrian Martinez back after a two-week absence. He looked like he was going to play in last week?s loss to Indiana but was ultimately held out due to a fear that he wouldn?t be able to protect himself due to a balky left knee. That fear no longer exists. Maurice Washington remains out, but Martinez?s return means Purdue?s defense will have to be locked in against the most capable offensive theam they?ve seen since opening October at Penn State. Boilers? redshirt freshman QB Jack Plummer was benched during last week?s 24-6 turnover-prone loss at Illinois but will start again.

Houston at UCF (-21.5/72), 12 p.m ET, ESPN2:
Houston QB D?Eriq King redshirting to return next season means this won?t be the formidable duel that was expected when the schedule was released. After nearly taking down SMU last week, the Cougs are nevertheless dangerous despite coming in with a losing record. RBs Kyle Porter and Patrick Carr have been cleared to play and WR Marquez Stevenson comes off a 10-catch, 211-yard effort against the Mustangs, so there is a lot of talent at the skill positions for Clayton Tune to continue working with. This will be Dana Holgorsen?s first look at UCF and Orlando?s ?Bounce Hounce? since coming over from the Big 12. U of H has won the last two meetings between the schools, which includes a 59-10 road win in 2015.

The Knights come off a 63-21 win at Temple and will be favored in their final three regular-season games but won?t get back to a conference championship game unless Cincinnati is beaten twice. That?s unlikely. UCF has scored 104 points in its two games since suffering a 27-24 setback at the Bearcats to open October. RB Adrian Killins will be back from an arm injury, restoring the team?s quality depth at tailback despite the absence of Greg McRae (knee). Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel and backup Darriel Mack, Jr. lead an offense averaging 46.6 points per game. The Knights won?t play at home again until closing the regular season with their annual post-Thanksgiving clash with rival South Florida.

Michigan (-21.5/58) at Maryland, 12 p.m. ET, ABC:
The Wolverines were able to flex some muscle in rainy conditions last Saturday night, running up the score in a 45-14 win against overwhelmed Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh?s team will have a bye on deck before tackling their final stretch of games against rival Michigan State, upstart Indiana and mighty Ohio State, so we?ll see how they approach this road game considering their 2-8 ATS over their last 10 trips outside Ann Arbor. Michigan is relatively healthy outside of top receiver Ronnie Bell, who tweaked a knee and left the field against the Irish.

Maryland got some bodies back for Minnesota last week but were never given a chance to knock off any of the rust in getting overwhelmed 52-10. The Terps have dropped five of six and have given up over 46 points per game in their last four losses. They?re unlikely to gain bowl eligibility in Mike Locksley?s first season since this one will be followed by a visit to Columbus next week, but getting QB Josh Jackson back where he needs to be to lead the program will be a priority. Tyrrell Pigrome should also get snaps after getting his knee back up to speed after leaving the field in Minneapolis. Maryland has a number of injury-related issues up front that won?t help its cause.

Afternoon Delights

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (-17.5/58.5), 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC:
Brian Kelly had an awful birthday in Ann Arbor after suffering a blowout loss that ended all hopes of another championship chase but needs to pick up the pieces and has a manageable slate that should allow them to win 10 games for a third straight season. The Irish haven?t lost in South Bend since falling to Georgia to open 2017, a span of 15 games. They?re heavily favored against the Hokies. They nearly had their streak of home wins end against USC in a 30-27 win on Oct. 12 but are 3-1 ATS at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame has won seven consecutive games following Michigan week.

Justin Fuente went 3-0 in October to help take some of the heat off, notching upsets over Miami and North Carolina and finding himself a QB in sophomore Hendon Hooker, who has thrown seven TD passes and ran for another score. RB DeShawn McClease has gained 253 yards during their winning streak to key a balanced rushing attack that has helped defenses from coming after Hooker. The Hokies are 11-6 on the road under Fuente and are embarking on the final month of legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster?s career. DT DaShawn Crawford is expected back from a high-ankle sprain.

Georgia (-6.5/45.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS:
Saturday?s top matchup is an elimination game as far as the national title race is concerned since the loser here will absorb a second loss and watch the other just about reserve a spot in the SEC Championship. The teams are meeting as Top-10 dwellers for the second straight season and have signed on to keep their series in Jacksonville. The Dawgs have had the tougher schedule thus far and still have to deal with Auburn and Texas A&M but come in relatively healthy. WR Lawrence Cager and corner Tyson Campbell have been cleared to play after injuries, while Florida is also good to go here with DL Jabari Zuniga and LB Jonathan Greenard both set to play after sitting due to ankle injuries.

Since Jake Fromm struggled so much in the loss to South Carolina, he?s under the most pressure to perform at TIAA Bank Field, especially with the Gators back at full strength defensively. He?s 30-6 in Athens and has led the offense to 36 points per game this season but will need to make plays downfield since Georgia?s defense will have to deal with WR Kadarius Toney, who returns to bolster an attack that Kyle Trask has had success sparking over the past few weeks. The Gators have outscored opponents 147-55 in the second half of games. Georgia has scored only one first-quarter touchdown over its last four games and isn?t likely to catch Florida by surprise early, so backing a first-quarter or even a first-half under may be worth a play. Georgia won three straight from ?11-?13, lost three in a row from ?14-?16 and are again looking for a three-game win streak after taking the last two meetings by a combined margin of 88-24.

Miami (FL) at Florida State (-3/49), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC:
This used to be the game of the year in college football in the 1990s and has had a few important chapters written over the past decade-plus, but it has stopped being must-watch over the past few years with both programs sliding. Manny Diaz has coached in a few of these but this will be his first one in the head seat, while FSU?s Willie Taggart lost his first one of these 28-27 as the ?Noles blew a 20-point lead as a 14-point underdog in South Florida.

Both teams have had incredibly disappointing seasons but can improve to 5-4 with a win, while the loser will slip under .500. The road team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings but there?s only been one upset over the last eight contests. Fifteen of the last 17 games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Miami will have RB DeeJay Dallas and linebacker Michael Pinckney back after they missed the win over Pitt last week and have Tate Martell available to backup starter Jarren Williams, who fueled last week?s comeback victory with a great final drive. He?ll have WR Jeff Thomas available too. QB N?Kosi Perry is questionable. FSU will have top RB Cam Akers and tackle Dontae Lucas available. If this game comes down to a field goal, the ?Noles will have senior Ricky Aguayo available after he missed last week?s win due to an illness.

Utah (-3/47.5) at Washington, 4 p.m. ET, FOX:
The Huskies are stuck in a spoiler role after suffering losses to Cal, Stanford and most recently, Oregon, which narrowly escaped Husky Stadium two weeks ago. Chris Petersen had gone 20-1 in his last 21 home games entering the season but has already dropped a pair of tight games and still has to deal with Washington State just after Thanksgiving to end the regular season. The Utes come into town intent on revenge after falling in last year?s Pac-12 title game 10-3 to drop a third straight heartbreaker in this series. Despite all the success Kyle Whittingham has had in Salt Lake City, Utah has lost 12 of 13 against U-Dub, winning 34-23 in Seattle in ?15. They lost 33-30 as a 17-point underdog the last time they came through town, so it?s clear the gap has shrunk considering they?re in a road favorite role here.

The Utes will have Tyler Huntley at the controls after he sat with a leg injury, allowing sophomore Jason Shelley a little shine to show that the future at the position is bright. RB Zack Moss was terrific in a demolition of Cal and also looks healthy. Washington is concerned with the availability of WRs Will Fuller, Puka Naca and Chico McClatcher, so Jacob Eason could be down a number of quality targets as he looks to solve another stingy defense after an excellent performance against the Ducks.

Primetime Matchups

Oregon (-4/62) at USC, 8 p.m. ET, FOX:
A win at the Coliseum would send the Ducks into a bye week with their national title hopes intact despite that season-opening loss to Auburn. Although the Pac-12 is down, Oregon has a chance to enhance its national profile with a strong finish by holding serve here, sweeping the Arizona schools and then claiming the Civil War prior to a conference title win against either the Utes or these Trojans. Despite all their attrition, USC?s recruiting success has allowed it to survive a myriad of injuries that would have decimated most other programs. There?s buzz that Urban Meyer will eventually be the school?s next coach, but there?s still plenty that can be accomplished this season as the team has picked itself up after suffering road losses to BYU, Washington and Notre Dame.

Kedon Slovis threw for over 400 yards against Colorado and has been excellent, especially since he?s a true freshman. Kurt Warner?s prot?g? has been particularly strong in the fourth quarter, racking up five touchdown throws and 449 yards on 35-for-45 passing. He?ll be running into the best defense he?s seen to date since facing Utah in a game in which he left with a concussion in addition to the 30-23 win currently making the difference in the South Division. The Ducks will have RB Travis Dye in the fold and have found ways to win tight games that eluded them in Mario Cristobal?s first season. They?ve won two of the last three in L.A. and have picked up victories in four of six.
 

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AFTERNOON BEST BETS:

AKR at BGSU 02:00 PM
BGSU -4.0

VT at ND 02:30 PM
U 58.0 *****

TROY at CC 03:00 PM
TROY -1.0 *****
O 60.5

RUTG at ILL 03:30 PM
ILL -18.5 *****

UTEP at UNT 03:30 PM
O 59.0

MRSH at RICE 03:30 PM
RICE +12.0 *****

ARMY at AFA 03:30 PM
AFA -16.5 *****
U 44.5

TCU at OKST 03:30 PM
TCU +2.5 *****

UNLV at CSU 03:30 PM
UNLV +7.0

UGA at FLA 03:30 PM
FLA +6.0 *****
U 47.5

MTU at CHAR 03:30 PM
MTU -3.5
O 65.0 *****

ARST at ULM 03:30 PM
ULM +1.0 *****

KSU at KU 03:30 PM
KU +4.5 *****
U 55.0

MIA at FSU 03:30 PM
U 49.0
 

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[B]LATE AFTERNOON BEST BETS:[/B]

PITT at GT 04:00 PM
PITT -7.5 *****

TLSA at TULN 04:00 PM
TULN -10.5 *****
O 59.5 *****


UTAH at WASH 04:00 PM
UTAH -3.0 *****
U 47.5

MSST at ARK 04:00 PM
O 58.5

FAU at WKU 04:00 PM
WKU +1.0 *****

WOF at CLEM 04:00 PM
CLEM -48.5

ORST at ARIZ 04:30 PM
ORST +4.5 *****

TXST at ULL 05:00 PM
ULL -23.0 *****
 

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LATE NIGHT GAMES:

CIN at ECU 07:00 PM
CIN -24.5 *****
U 48.0

UAB at TENN 07:00 PM
UAB +13.5 *****

NW at IND 07:00 PM
IND -8.0 *****

MISS at AUB 07:00 PM
AUB -17.5*****
O 53.5 *****


SMU at MEM 07:30 PM
MEM -6.5 *****
O 72.0 *****


VAN at SOCAR 07:30 PM
SOCAR -15.5

UVA at UNC 07:30 PM
UNC -1.0

ORE at USC 08:00 PM
USC +3.5 *****

COLO at UCLA 09:00 PM
COLO +6.5 *****
O 64.0 *****


BYU at USU 10:00 PM
BYU +3.0 *****

BSU at SJSU 10:30 PM
SJSU +16.0 *****
O 60.0

UNM at NEV 10:30 PM
NEV -3.5 *****
O 58.0

FRES at HAW 11:59 PM
HAW -2.0
O 68.0 *****

 

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Saturday's best
November 2, 2019
By The Associated Press


STARS

-Antonio Gibson, Memphis, had a school-record 386 all-purpose yards with three scores, helping the No. 24 Tigers hold off No. 15 SMU 54-48.

-AJ Dillon, Boston College, ran for 242 yards and scored three touchdowns as the Eagles blew past Syracuse 58-27.

-Bryce Perkins, Virginia, amassed 490 total yards and accounted for five TDs to help the Cavaliers beat North Carolina 38-31,

-Mason Fine, North Texas, threw a career-high seven TD passes to lead the Mean Green to a 52-26 victory over UTEP.

-Kylin Hill, Mississippi State, ran for a career-high 234 yards and three TDs as the Rebels rushed for 460 yards in a 54-24 demolition of Arkansas.

- Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State, ran for 223 yards and two long TDs to help the Cowboys defeat TCU 34-27.

-Travis Etienne, Clemson, ran for 212 yards and two TDs as the No. 4 Tigers won their 24th consecutive game, rolling over FCS opponent Wofford 59-14.

-Bryan Edwards, South Carolina, had a school-record 14 catches for 139 yards and a TD as the Gamecocks beat Vanderbilt 24-7.

-Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati, threw for 161 yards and a touchdown, rushed for 146 more and led the winning drive in the final 1:10 to lead the No. 17 Bearcats to a 46-43 win over East Carolina.

-Eric Barriere, Eastern Washington, accounted for 468 yards and four TDs in a 66-38 rout of Northern Arizona.

-Jamie Newman, Wake Forest, returned from injury to throw for three touchdowns and run for two more as the No. 23 Demon Deacons beat North Carolina State 44-10.

-Geremy Hickbottom, Grambling, accounted for five TDs in a 55-20 win over Texas Southern 55-20.

-Xavier Smith, Florida A&M, had 184 yards and four TDs receiving in a 52-30 win over Delaware State.

-Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M, ran for 217 yards and three TDs to lead the Aggies to a 45-14 win over UTSA.

-Jake Chisholm, Dayton, ran for 268 yards and scored two TDs in a 49-35 win over Morehead State.

- Kurt Rawlings, Yale, threw for 390 yards and accounted for four touchdowns in a 45-10 win over Columbia.

-Jose Davis, Weber State, ran for 177 yards and a TD in the Wildcats' 36-17 win over Sacramento State.

- Marcel Murray, Arkansas State, ran for 175 yard and three scores in a 48-41 win over Louisiana-Monroe 48-41.

---

BULLDOG PARTY

Jake Fromm was a little late to the after-party.

He was in the third and final wave of Georgia players leaping into the stands at the ''World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.''

It was a fitting spot for Fromm considering how effective he's been on third down against Florida.

Fromm threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns, including a 52-yarder to an uncovered Lawrence Cager in the fourth quarter, and the No. 8 Bulldogs beat the sixth-ranked Gators 24-17.

It was Georgia's third consecutive victory in the Southeastern Conference rivalry and sixth in the last nine years.

Fromm was the main reason for the last two. He has five touchdown passes in two years against Florida, four coming on third down.

---

NUMBERS

4-Straight Big Ten wins by Indiana, its longest conference streak since 1993.

12-Straight wins by No. 22 Kansas State over rival Kansas after a 38-10 victory.

691-Total yards by Boston College in a 58-27 win over Syracuse, breaking the school record.

---

RUGGED UTES

The past month looked, and felt, so easy for No. 9 Utah. One blowout after another. No tests for the Utes to answer.

They knew traveling to Washington would be different, and they were right. The Utes were challenged; falling behind early and rallying late, and in doing so solidified their spot in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Tyler Huntley threw for one touchdown and ran for another, Jaylon Johnson returned an interception 39 yards for a score, and No. 9 Utah overcame an 11-point first-half deficit to beat Washington 33-28.

The Utes did their part in keeping pace in the Pac-12 South race and bolstered their CFP resume with a road win over a talented opponent in a place where it's never come easy for Utah.
 

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CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/02/2019........29-28-0,,,,,,,,,,50.88%............-9.00
11/01/2019.......... 1-1-0 ..........50.00%.......... -0.50

Totals................30-29-0.......... 50.84%........... -9.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


11/02/2019............12 - 16...........-28.00............8 - 4...............+18.00.............-10.00
11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS..................13 - 16...........-23.00............8 - 5...............+12.50.............-10.50


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80
 

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Monday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 9 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1 (929)- L

5) Buccaneers +6 (1,031)- T

4) Vikings +2.5 (1,104)- L

3) Patriots -3 (1,130)- L

2) Packers -3.5 (1,251)- L

1) Browns -3 (1,,257)- L

2019 record: 25-27-2

njbm k
?I spoke to Coach Taggart this afternoon to let him know of our decision. I met with the team and coaches immediately after that conversation to let them know of the change. It was very important to us that the student-athletes know right away??..I think very highly of Coach Taggart and wish him well, but in the interest of the university we had no choice but to make a change.?
Florida State AD David Coburn, after firing football coach Willie Taggart

Monday?s quiz
Baker Mayfield won the Heisman Trophy playing for Oklahoma; where did he begin his college career?

Sunday?s quiz
Arizona Cardinals? QB Kyler Murray won the Heisman Trophy playing for Oklahoma; he began his college career at Texas A&M.

Saturday?s quiz
Pete Carroll (age 68) is the oldest head coach in the NFL this year.

***************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up Week 9 in the NFL?..

49ers 28, Cardinals 25
? San Francisco won field position by ten yards.
? 49ers converted 11-17 3rd down plays, Arizona 2-8.
? Niners are 8-0, have their first meeting with Seattle next week.

? Cardinals are 18-57 on 3rd down in their losses, 29-63 in wins/tie.
? Before this, Arizona had beaten the 49ers eight games in a row.
? Cardinals are 22-14-1 ATS in last 37 games as a home underdog.

Texans 26, Jaguars 3:
? Season series has now been swept last nine years.
? Houston ran ball for 216 yards, won field position by 11 yards.
? Texans are 14-4 ATS in pre-bye games, winning/covering last five.

? Jaguars are +8 in turnovers in their wins,-10 in losses.
? Jax dropped back to pass 51 times, ran ball only 15 times, un-Jaguar-like.
? Losing side scored 12 of fewer points in last six series games.

Bills 24, Redskins 9:
? Last three games, Washington has no TD?s on 23 drives. None. Zero.
? Redskins converted 12 of last 58 third down plays. No bueno.
? With this loss, QB?s making their NFL debut are 8-1 ATS this year.

? Buffalo?s three first half drives: 31 plays, 159 yards, 17 points.
? Bills are 6-2, visits Browns/Dolphins next two weeks; time to make hay?
? Home teams won all six 1:00 games SU Sunday, which is unusual.

Panthers 30, Titans 20:
? Titans are 4-0 scoring 23+ points, 0-5 when they don?t.
? Tennessee outgained Carolina 431-370, missed FG?s of 42-55-43 yards.
? Titans are 11-22 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog, 1-3 TY.

? Carolina was +2 in turnovers, won field position by 17 yards.
? Panthers won five of six games with Kyle Allen at QB.
? Carolina has converted only 14 of last 54 third down plays.

Eagles 22, Bears 14:
? First half yardage: Eagles 202, Chicago 9.
? Bears are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
? Chicago lost its last four games overall, allowing 24.8 ppg.

? Eagles outgained Chicago 373-164 for the game.
? Philly converted 8-18 third down plays, Bears only 2-10.
? Eagles beat Chicago for 5th time in row, including LY?s playoffs.

Chiefs 26, Vikings 23:
? Vikings had their 4-game winning streak snapped.
? Minnesota went 3/out on six of their 12 drives.
? Vikings lost last trips to Arrowhead, all by 5 or fewer points.

? Butker made 44-yard FG with 2:30 left, a 44-yarder at gun for the win.
? Chiefs scored only two TD?s; one was a 91-yard TD run.
? KC snaps an uncharacteristic 3-game home losing skid.

Dolphins 26, Jets 18:
? Jets drove 75 yards for a TD on first possession, their only TD of the day.
? NYJ has been outscored 110-53 in losing all four road games
? Jets are 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.

? Miami gets its first win of season in eight tries.
? Dolphins outscored last four opponents 48-45 in first half.
? Miami won four in row over the Jets, are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a series underdog.

Steelers 26, Colts 24:
? Vinatieri missed a 42-yard FG with 1:11 left that proved fatal; he also missed a PAT.
? QB Brissett hurt his knee early on; Hoyer was 17-26/168 with three TD?s in relief.
? Colts covered all four of their road games this season.

? Fitzpatrick had a 96-yard pick-6 2:21 before halftime, Steelers? first TD.
? Steelers won four of last five games after an 0-3 start.
? Villanueva recovered a Rudolph fumble in end zone for a safety, saving Pitt five points.

Raiders 31, Lions 24:
? Detroit had ball on Oakland 1-yard line in last minute, couldn?t score.
? Stafford threw for 406 yards in a losing cause.
? Detroit allowed 122 points in last four games; they?ve held only one team (LAC) under 23

? Renfrow caught winning 9-yard TD pass with 2:04 left to play.
? Five of last six Oakland games went over the total.
? There were 16 plays of 20+ yards in this game, three more than any game this week.

Seahawks 40, Buccaneers 34 OT:
? Buccaneers led this game 21-7 late in 2nd quarter.
? Evans caught 12 balls for 180 yards and a TD.
? Tampa Bay scores 32.8 ppg in games with 0 or 1 turnover, 22 ppg in the others.

? Seattle?s last seven drives: 42 plays, 366 yards, 26 points.
? Lockett caught 13 balls for 152 yards and two TD?s.
? Seahawks won five of their last six games; Wilson is the MVP so far.

Broncos 24, Browns 19:
? Browns scored 16 points on five trips to red zone; not good.
? Cleveland gave up TD plays of 21-75-30 yards; Denver had zero snaps in red zone.
? Since 2013, Browns are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.

? Three QB?s named Allen started Sunday; they all won their game.
? QB?s making their NFL debut are 9-1 ATS this season (5-4-1 SU).
? Broncos are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.

Chargers 26, Packers 11:
? Chargers outrushed Green Bay, 159-45.
? Packers on three first half drives: 18 plays, 35 yards, zero points.
? Green Bay had only one play of 20+ yards, least of any team this week.

? Chargers scored on six of first seven drives, missed a FG on 8th drive.
? Badgley made four of five FG?s in his first game this season.
? LA averaged 9.4 yards/pass attempt, Packers only 3.7.

Ravens 37, Patriots 20:
? Patriot defense had allowed four TD?s on 96 drives coming in; they allowed four TD?s on eight drives in this game.
? Average total in last four series games is 54.8.
? San Francisco is the last unbeaten team; they play Seattle next week.

? Lamar Jackson is now 12-3 as an NFL starter.
? Baltimore scored a defensive TD with 12:21 left in third quarter to break game open.
? Ravens are 14-4 ATS in last 18 post-bye games, 6-3 in last nine as a home underdog; they?ve scored 23+ points in every game this year.
 
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