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[Cnotes53]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Friday?s games
North Carolina-Wake Forest meet for first time since 2015; this isn?t an ACC conference game. Wake is 6-5 in last 11 series games; favorites covered three of last four. UNC lost 28-27/37-10 in last two visits here. Tar Heels won first two games this year by total of seven points; they?re 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog. Wake Forest scored 41-38 points in winning its first two games; Deacons have already thrown for 713 yards, completing 74% of their passes. Under Clawson, Wake is 7-8 ATS as a HF.

Kansas struggled in its first two games under Les Miles, nipping a I-AA team 24-17, then losing 12-7 to I-A newcomer Coastal Carolina LW; Jayhawks were outgained in both games. Kansas is minus-3 in turnovers this year; over last decade, they?re 17-31-2 ATS as a road underdog, 3-6 outside the Big X. Under Addazio, Boston College is 12-9 ATS as a home favorite; they?re 2-0 SU this year, upsetting Va Tech at home in their only I-A game. Last seven years, ACC teams are 9-7 ATS when playing a Big X opponent.

Over last 6+ years, Houston is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog, 3-0 at home; UH gave up 686 yards in its 49-31 (+22) loss at Oklahoma in their opener, then beat up on a I-AA team LW. Mobile QB King completed only completed 54.7% of his passes, but ran for 102 yards. Washington State beat up on a couple stiffs to start this season; their new QB has completed 81.1% of his passes. Coogs covered five of last seven games as a road favorite. Wazzu starts Pac-12 play vs UCLA next week. Last five years, AAC teams covered six of seven games when facing a Pac-12 opponent.

Saturday?s top 13 games
Kansas State (+8) got whacked 31-10 at home by Mississippi State LY; Bulldogs ran ball for 384 yards, TY was 538-213. K-State smacked couple of stiffs to begin season, running ball for 694 yards; last three years, KSU was 10-3 ATS as a road underdog. Wildcats? OL has 96 returning starts; their new coach comes from I-AA North Dakota State. MSU scored 38-38 points in winning its first two games, running ball for 471 yards; Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Last five years, SEC teams are 11-8 ATS when playing a Big X opponent.

NC State beat up on couple of stiffs to start their season; they threw for 314 yards in a 34-6 win over ECU. Wolfpack has only 4 starters back on offense (32 returning starts on OL). Under Doeren, State is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite. West Virginia lost 38-7 at Mizzou LW, after struggling to beat a I-AA team 20-13 in their opener- they were outgained 328-294 by JMU. Last four years, Mountaineers are 0-2-1 as a home underdog. Last seven years, ACC teams are 9-7 ATS when playing a Big X opponent. Teams last met in 2010.

Air Force spanked a I-AA team 48-7 in its only game so far; last four years, Falcons are 10-3-1 as a road underdog. Flyboys have seven starters back on both sides of ball- their OL has 47 returning starts. Colorado scored 86 points in winning its first two games, despite allowing 974 yards, 62 points. Buffs are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite. So far this season, Mountain West teams are 7-2 ATS when getting points, 4-1 on road. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 15-12 ATS when playing a Pac-12 squad.

Stanford gets QB Costello back here, but their OL is banged up; they scored total of only 37 points in splitting first two games. Cardinal allowed 377 PY to a freshman QB in its 45-20 loss at USC LW. Stanford is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road dog. Central Florida ran for 312 yards in a 48-14 win at FAU LW; Knights are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games as a HF. Last five years, AAC teams covered six of seven games when facing a Pac-12 opponent. Cardinal routed UCF 31-7 (-18.5) in only meeting, in 2015.

Navy won its last three games with East Carolina, scoring 66-45-56 points; Middies ran ball for average of 469 ypg in those games. Average total in last five series games: 86.2. ECU lost its opener 34-6 at NC State, going up 314 PY; Pirates are 3-12-1 in last 16 games as a road dog. Navy beat up on a I-AA team in its opener; they?re 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Middies have a senior QB with 26 career starts. AAC teams are 9-5 ATS out of conference this year, 4-4 as an underdog.

Sandwich game (Stanford/Utah) for USC, and first road start for Trojan frosh QB Slovis, who was 29-33/377 passing in his first college start LW. USC scored 31-45 points in winning its first two games; under Helton, they?re 8-8 SU on road, 6-3 ATS as a road favorite. BYU upset Tennessee LW after getting smoked 30-12 by rival Utah; Cougars gave up 256-242 RY in the two games. Under Sitake, Cougars are 0-4-1 as home underdogs. Teams haven?t met since 2004. So far this season, Pac-12 teams are 5-4 ATS when laying points out of conference.

Iowa won its last four games with Iowa State (3-0-1 ATS) by average score of 32-16; they won last three visits to Ames, by 3-14-6 points. Favorites are 6-3-1 ATS in last ten series games. Iowa won its first two games by combined score of 68-14, winning Big 14 opener 30-0 LW. Over last six years, Hawkeyes are 15-2-1 as a road favorite. Cyclones needed OT to get past I-AA Northern Iowa 29-26 in their opener (outgained UNI 463-262). Under Campbell, ISU is 7-3-1 as a home underdog. Last seven years, Big X teams are 13-12 ATS when playing a Big 14 team.

Arizona State (+5.5) upset Michigan State 16-13 in desert LY, throwing for 380 yards, but ASU has a true freshman QB playing now- first road start for him. Sun Devils struggled to beat a I-AA team 19-7 LW, after beating Kent State 30-7 in their opener. ASU is 5-2-1 in last eight tries as a road dog. Michigan State won its first two games by combined 79-24; they?re 9-14 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Last 6+ years, Big 14 teams are 23-14-1 ATS when playing a Pac-12 team, 1-4-1 the last 1+ years.

Kentucky QB Wilson is out for season after hurting his left knee last week; Wildcats snapped a 21-game losing skid to Florida LY, upsetting Gators 27-16 (+13.5). Florida won its last 11 visits to Lexington, covering five of last six. Gators beat Miami 24-20 in its opener, then crushed a I-AA team LW; Florida covered seven of its last 10 tries as a road favorite. Kentucky beat couple of MAC teams by 14-21 points to open season; new QB Smith started 7 games at Troy State LY. Wildcats are 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

TCU whacked a I-AA team to start the season, using two QB?s; Horned Frogs have all five starters back on OL (75 starts). Since 2011, TCU is 9-16 ATS as a road favorite. Purdue?s leading tackler is out; their QB had a concussion LW, is a ??? here. Boilers lost 34-31 at Nevada, then beat Vandy 42-24 LW. Purdue threw ball for 932 yards in two games, ran it for only 127. Under Brohm, Boilers are 3-1 as a home underdog. Last five years, Big X teams are 9-7-1 ATS when playing a Big 14 opponent.

Florida State won 11 of last 13 games vs Virginia, winning five of last six visits here (4-2 ATS); Seminoles were favored in all 13 games. Teams last met in 2014; Cavaliers are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings. FSU lost 36-31 at home to Boise, then snuck by ULM 45-44, not a great start; Last 2+ years, Seminoles are 3-6 ATS as an underdog. Virginia won its opener 30-14 at Pitt, then whacked a I-AA team LW; under Mendenhall, Cavaliers are 5-5 ATS as home favorites. FSU is 13-14 SU in its last 27 games, after going 49-6 in the four years before that.

Oklahoma (-29) hammered UCLA 49-21 LY, throwing for 306 yards, outgaining Bruins by 102 yards. Under Riley, Sooners are 2-4-1 as road faves, 5-3 ATS outside Big X- they beat Houston 49-31 in their opener, giving up 241 RY. UCLA is 0-2, losing 24-14 to Cincy, 23-14 to San Diego State; they?ve run ball for only 124 yards, and have -4 turnover ratio. Last six years, Bruins are 2-7 ATS as a home underdog. Last 8+ years, Big X teams are 17-11-1 ATS when playing a Pac-12 squad. Last 25 times Oklahoma was a road favorite, game went over the total 22 times.

Texas Tech beat a couple of stiffs to start its season; Red Raiders have a new coach, are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a road favorite. Tech has an OL with 115 returning starts, and a soph QB who started 7 games LY. Arizona allowed 86 points, 1,037 TY in its first two games; they lost 45-38 at Hawai?i, routed NAU 65-41 LW, giving up 373 PY. Since 2012, Wildcats are 12-7 ATS as a home underdog. Arizona is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games. Last 8+ years, Big X teams are 17-11-1 ATS when playing a Pac-12 squad.

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Monte Andrews


GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS

It's been a good-news, bad-news kind of week for the Stanford Cardinal as they prepare to face the Central Florida Knights on Saturday. First, the good: The Cardinal will have quarterback KJ Costello back in the fold after he missed last week's loss to USC after suffering an injury in the first half of the season opener against Northwestern. Unfortunately, he'll be missing one of his key offensive lineman, with tackle Walker Little set to undergo season-ending knee surgery; he was also injured vs. the Wildcats.

While losing Little certainly hurts, the return of Costello is a big one for a Cardinal team that saw backup Davis Mills struggle against the Trojans (237 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). The Knights like it fast (ranking 30th in plays per game last season) and Costello is talented enough to lead Stanford over its 26.5-point team total.


AGGRAVATED AGGIES

A disappointing 24-10 setback to No. 1 Clemson wasn't the only loss the Texas A&M Aggies suffered last week; they've learned they'll be without leading rusher Jashaun Corbin for the remainder of the season with a hamstring injury. Corbin suffered the injury midway through the third quarter of last week's loss; he had compiled 34 yards on 13 carries to that point but gained over 100 yards the week prior in a victory over Texas Southern. Corbin finishes the year with 137 rushing yards and a score.

Given that the Aggies are ridiculous 43.5-point favorites for this week's game against visiting Lamar, look for head coach Jimbo Fisher to take full advantage and give as many of his players as much rest as possible; temperatures will also approach 100 degrees Fahrenheit, which is another good reason to pump the brakes. We like the Under-63 option here.


ONE TITANIC CHALLENGE

After comparing his team to "The Titanic," Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt will look to right the ship this week as the winless Volunteers host state rival Chattanooga. And getting back on track could mean a heavier reliance on a run game that has looked a lot better than the passing game through the first two weeks. Ty Chandler (202 yards) and Eric Gray (106) should both see plenty of action in a game in which the hosts are favored by four touchdowns.

Their early-season success, coupled with struggles from starting quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, could make this a 55-carry kind of game as Tennessee looks for its first win of the season. And with the Mocs coming in having averaged just 22 points per game against far inferior competition, we see the Vols controlling the game sufficiently to keep their foes below their team total.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Report - Week 3
September 12, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Indiana 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2
Iowa 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Maryland 2-0 1-0 2-0 2-0
Michigan 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Michigan State 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
Minnesota 2-0 0-0 0-1-1 1-1
Nebraska 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1
Northwestern 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1
Ohio State 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-1-1
Penn State 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0
Purdue 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0
Rutgers 1-1 0-1 1-1 1-1
Wisconsin 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Week 3 Big Ten Matchups
Ohio State (-17.5, Total 60) at Indiana
Maryland (-7, Total 66.5) at Temple
Pittsburgh at Penn State (-17, Total 53)
Eastern Michigan at Illinois (-7, Total 55.5)
Georgia Southern at Minnesota (-16.5, Total 46)
UNLV at Northwestern (-18, Total 52.5)
Iowa (-2, Total 43.5) at Iowa State
Arizona State at Michigan State (-14, Total 42)
TCU (-2.5, Total 52) at Purdue
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-14, Total 54.5)

Odds Subject to Change

OHIO STATE at INDIANA (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Ohio State ripped through a very solid Cincinnati team last week winning 42-0. The Buckeyes easily covered the 16.5 point spread and it was the first time since November of 2005 that Cincinnati didn?t score a single point. The Bucks were +18 first downs, +235 total yards and only punted 3 times the entire game. They put up nearly 5 YPC vs a Cincy defense that allowed only 3.5 YPC a year ago. Ohio State has gotten off to very fast starts in both of their games this season scoring 56 points on 651 yards in the first half alone. Two easy wins for the Buckeyes to start the season by a combined score of 87-21. OSU travels to Indiana on Saturday to open the Big Ten season. Indiana is also 2-0 after topping Ball State by 10 points in their season opener and then crushing Eastern Illinois 52-0 last Saturday. The Hoosiers jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead and held EIU to a negative 9 yards on their first 3 offensive possessions. For the game IU had 555 total yards while holding the Panthers to just 116. Head coach Tom Allen was able to rest a number of his key players which gave his backups some experience. They had 6 players score the first TD of their careers in the win. Because of the huge lead, starting QB Michael Penix (who is questionable in this game with an injury) gave way to back up and last year?s starter Peyton Ramsey late in the 2nd quarter. The two QB?s combined for 441 passing yards and 4 TD?s. They had only 7 incompletions between them. However, the running game is a major question mark at this point. They have put up only 214 total rushing yards on 74 carries this year (2.9 YPC) vs inferior competition. After facing a MAC team and an FCS team, the level of competition gets exponentially tougher with the Buckeyes coming to town this weekend. This spread opened OSU -14 on Sunday and quickly shot up to -15.5, now sitting at 17.5 as of Thursday. Since 1980 the Hoosiers are just 2-32-1 SU vs the Buckeyes. However they have been the money team in this series as of late covering 7 of the last 8 meetings. However, this is the lowest spread in this series since 2004 when the Bucks were favored by -13.

PITTSBURGH at PENN STATE (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
After rolling over Idaho 79-7 to open the year PSU picked up another cover last week topping Buffalo 45-13 as 31-point favorites. It looked like the Bulls would get the cover trailing 38-13 late in the game. However, PSU kept their starters in the game and starting QB Clifford threw a 56-yard TD pass with 3:00 minutes remaining to get the cover and 32-point win. Buffalo actually led the game 10-7 at half but the Lions came out in the 2nd half and scored on every possession but one. They also had a pick 6 which all led to the blowout. A look at the overall stats tells a completely different story. Buffalo was +8 first downs, +72 total yards, +106 yards rushing, and +25 minutes in time of possession. The Bulls ran a whopping 92 plays to just 46 for Penn State and still lost by 32 points! The running game, or lack thereof, was bit of a concern for the Nittany Lions. After rushing for 331 yards vs a non-existent Idaho defense, they had only 78 yards rushing last week. Their 3 RB?s (Brown, Slade, Cain, and Ford) combined for just 39 yards and their leading rusher was QB Clifford. This Saturday they are at home for the 3rd straight week to take on in-state rival Pitt. The Panthers dominated Ohio at home last week more than the 20-10 final score would indicate outgaining the Bobcats by 260 yards. PSU has won the last 2 meetings by a combined score of 84-20.

MARYLAND at TEMPLE (CBSSN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Maryland offense has taken college football by storm. The Terps and new head coach Mike Locksley were flying under the radar coming into the season with very little talk or hype surrounding them. After their 63-20 destruction of Syracuse last Saturday, the Terps have now scored 142 points on 1,273 yards in just two games! Locksley?s up tempo offense has run an average of 81 plays per game which has stressed run heavy scheme with 93 rush attempts and 68 pass attempts on the season. QB Josh Jackson, a Virginia Tech transfer, gives the Terps a passing threat with 296 yards in their win over the Cuse. The Orange defense simply couldn?t get off the field with Maryland converting on 11 of their 15 third down plays. For the season they are now 17 of 28 on third down which is a remarkable conversion rate. The Terrapins scored TD?s on 6 of their 7 first half possessions last Saturday in route to 42 first half points. We have no feel thus far for the Maryland defense as the Terps have gotten out to such big leads the stop unit has really had no pressure on them to perform. They did give up 400 yards to Syracuse last week but when the offense can go for 600+ the defense can simply go through the motions. The line move on this game was dead on as Syracuse opened as a 2.5 point favorite and the number swung to Maryland favored by 2.5. This week they take the road for the first time this season traveling to Philadelphia to take on Temple. The Owls beat Bucknell 56-12 two weeks ago and had a bye last week to try and get ready to stop this offense. Temple beat Maryland on the road last year 35-14 as a 15.5 point underdog.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
After an easy win at home vs Akron in the season opener, the Illini were pegged as a rare double digit road favorite last week at UConn. They haven?t been in that role since (double digit road chalk) since 2011 and they struggled. They did pick up the 31-23 win but came nowhere close to covering the 18-point spread. In fact, the Illini had to battle back from 13 points down to pick up their first non-conference road win since 2007. The Huskies are projected to be one of the worst teams in college football and their loss on Saturday made it 17 straight setbacks vs FBS opponents. The Illini were without their top two RB?s and it showed in their results. They averaged just 3.7 YPC vs a UConn defense that allowed FCS Wagner to rush for almost 5.0 YPC a week earlier & allowed nearly 8.0 YPC a year ago. RB Mike Epstein is out for the year after injuring his knee in week one and Reggie Corbin was a late scratch here with an injury. Speaking of rush defense, the Illini have been simply fantastic in that category through 2 games. They have allowed just 74 rushing yards this season on 67 carries for barely 1.0 YPC. That success vs the run looks like it will carry over into their game this week as they host an Eastern Michigan team that has run for just 142 yards on 57 carries (2.5 YPC) in their 2 games this year. The Illini definitely look improved however let?s keep in mind their 2 wins this far have come against teams that we have ranked 115th or lower out of 130 teams. Their opponent this week is EMU sits a bit higher in our power rankings but not much. We?ll find out more about Illinois when they host Nebraska the following week.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at MINNESOTA (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Minnesota (-3) moved to 2-0 with a double OT 38-35 win (pushed the number) last Saturday at Fresno State. The Gophs trailed in the 4th quarter of both games and rallied late to get the wins. In this one, Fresno was up 28-21 with just 52 seconds remaining in the game and it looked like Minnesota was going to come back to the Midwest with a loss. They faced a 4th and 13 from the Fresno 20-yard line and QB Tanner Morgan completed a pass in the corner of the endzone to WR Chris Autman-Bell who barely kept his foot in bounds. That play sent the game to OT where Minnesota pulled out the 3-point win. The Gophers have found a way to start the season with 2 wins but they could easily be 0-2. They were outgained on a yards per play basis in both games this year vs South Dakota State & Fresno. This week they host Georgia Southern and they better have their run defense ready to perform. GSU runs the ball as much as any team in the country. They run the option which can be very tough defend with only one week to prepare. The Eagles put up almost 400 yards rushing last week in their win over Maine after struggling for just 74 yards on the ground in their opening blowout loss at LSU. They have completed only 8 passes this year. The Eagles QB Werts is questionable here so something to keep an eye on. After struggling to slow down South Dakota State?s running game (allowed 5.1 YPC) the Gopher defense did a much better job last week limiting Fresno to just 2.1 YPC. After this one Minnesota has a bye before opening the Big Ten season at Purdue on September 28th.

UNLV at NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Cats come into this one off a bye after losing 17-7 in week one at Stanford. Their offense better be much more productive moving forward if they expect to make it to a bowl game this year. In their game vs the Cardinal, the Wildcats tallied barely over 200 yards, their QB?s completed less than 45% of their passes, and they averaged 2.1 YPC on the ground. That simply won?t get it done. Sure the Stanford defense looked very good but their performance last week has us questioning what we saw from them vs the Wildcats. After completely shutting down Northwestern in week one, Stanford?s defense was shredded for almost 500 yards and allowed 45 points last week vs USC. The Northwestern offense will be led this Saturday by QB Hunter Johnson, a former 5-star recruit and transfer from Clemson. He struggled mightily at Stanford but split time with TJ Green who is now out for the season after injuring his foot in week one. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald took advantage of the bye giving his team a full 4 days off (Sunday ? Wednesday) before returning to practice last Thursday. They had some other injuries in their loss at Stanford, including starting RB Bowser, but with the time off they should be healthy with the exception of Green. UNLV comes to Evanston with a 1-1 record beating FCS Southern Utah 56-23 before losing last week 43-17 to Arkansas State. Both games were played in Las Vegas. Northwestern is laying a big number here (-19.5) and they struggled in this spot last year going 0-2 ATS when favored by 18 or more not coming close to covering in either (wins by 3 & 5 points).

IOWA at IOWA STATE (FS1, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Iowa travels across the state to Ames on Saturday to try and keep the Cy-Hawk Trophy in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have won 4 straight in this series including last year?s 13-3 win at home. Iowa?s defense was fantastic in last year?s match up holding Iowa State to just 188 total yards and only 15 on the ground. Even with that, the game was close throughout with the Hawkeyes leading 6-3 until scoring late in the 4th quarter (4:47 remaining) to grab the 10-point lead and the win. Last week Iowa picked up a conference win as they shut out Rutgers 30-0 as 20-point favorites. Defense was the name of the game again as Iowa held Rutgers to just 125 total yards on 49 offensive snaps (2.5 YPP). The Knights only entered Iowa territory twice the entire game and did not get inside the Hawkeye 42-yard line on any of their 13 offensive possessions. Only two of those possessions resulted in more than 21 yards. Iowa was +18 first downs, +313 yards, and +15:00 minutes time of possession. They are now 2-0 outscoring their 2 opponents 68-14. Iowa State had a scare two weeks ago beating Northern Iowa in OT. It was a game ISU dominated the stats outgaining UNI by 200 yards. Despite that they trailed 13-10 with under 1:00 minute remaining in regulation but they were able to tie the game and get the win in OT. Iowa State does have an advantage here of having a bye entering this one. Iowa has been a road favorite 17 times in this series and they are 13-4 SU / 12-5 ATS in those meetings.

ARIZONA STATE at MICHIGAN STATE (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)
This line opened -12 and has shot through the key number of 14. After struggling offensively in their season opening win vs Tulsa, the Spartans looked much better on that side of the ball last week. They put up nearly 600 total yards in their 51-17 win over Western Michigan covering as a 16-point favorite. After scoring only 2 offensive TD?s vs Tulsa, they put up 6 touchdowns last week. Sparty?s much maligned senior QB Brian Lewerke looked much better last week completing 72% of his passes after only 56% in their first game. He also threw for 314 yards after just 192 against Tulsa. We?ve said it before that if they can get some decent production out of the offense, this team will be very tough to beat. The defense is one of the best in the nation. They led the country in rush defense last year and this season they have allowed a negative 8 yards on the ground through 2 games. So you better be able to pass on MSU because running successfully might not be an option. ASU brings a 2-0 record and a true freshman QB to East Lansing on Saturday. Jayden Daniels has thrown for almost 600 yards in his first two games, however those were against Kent & Sacramento State, and both games were at home. Daniels will need to be on his game here as ASU has struggled to run the ball against those two inferior defenses gaining only 262 yards on the season on 85 carries (3.0 YPC). The Sun Devil offensive line has also struggled to protect the mobile Daniels as two weeks ago Kent had 5 sacks and 7 tackles for loss and last week FCS Sacramento State had 1 sack and 9 TFL?s. These two met last year in Tempe and MSU went off as a -5.5 point favorite. ASU won the game 16-13 but the Spartans outgained them by 50 yards and held the Devils to 63 yards rushing on 27 carries. MSU led 13-3 entering the 4th quarter and ASU scored the game?s final 13 points for the win.

TCU at PURDUE (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)
There has been a big line move already on this game as Purdue opened -2.5 and now TCU is a 2.5-point favorite. That could be due to the fact that Boiler starting QB Sindelar has been diagnosed with a concussion and may not play here. If he is unable to go here, the starting QB will be Jack Plummer, a true freshman who has never taken a collegiate snap. Speaking of Sindelar, Purdue can ill afford to lose him. We were on the Boilers last week (a win) and he played an outstanding game with over 500 yards passing, 5 TD passes, and a rushing TD as well. They beat Vanderbilt 42-24 picking up the easy cover as 7-point favorites. It was definitely a game Purdue had to have after blowing a 17-point 3rd quarter lead a week before in a 34-31 loss at Nevada. Sindelar put the ball in the air 52 times while the Boilermakers ran the ball just 18 times. That?s become a trend for PU through the first 2 games as they?ve attempted 104 passes and only 47 rush attempts. They have only 127 yards rushing on the season ? last in the Big Ten. Head coach Jeff Brohm would like more balance but said the passing game is the strength of their offense this season. To reiterate that point, on their 6 scoring drives vs Vanderbilt last Saturday, they ran the ball only 6 times. Will that be a problem with a potential inexperienced QB under center on Saturday? After beating Arkansas Pine Bluff 39-7 two weeks ago, TCU comes to West Lafayette off a bye. The TCU defense led the Big 12 in pass defense last year allowing only 208 YPG in conference play. Could be a tough match up for Purdue on Saturday depending on the status of Sindelar.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Oh Nebraska. We were on the Huskers (-4) at Colorado last week and all looked well at halftime with Nebraska up 17-0 and dominating the stat sheet. We were hearing that head coach Scott Frost was furious with his team?s offensive performance a week earlier vs South Alabama and we felt they?d play really well in their revenge game at CU. They did for 40 minutes. However for the last 20 minutes, the defense was terrible and the Buffs were able to come back and pick up a 34-31 win in OT. With 4:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter, the Husker defense had allowed only 118 total yards. From that point on, Colorado picked them apart for almost 350 yards scoring 24 points in the 4th quarter alone! After not allowing a pass of more than 15 yards or a run of more than 10 yards during the first 40 minutes of the game, Nebraska?s defense allowed eight such plays over the last 20 minutes. Kicker Barret Pickering has been unable to go this year with a hip injury and his status is still up in the air. That turned out to be a key in last week?s loss as backup kicker Isaac Armstrong (also the punter) missed a FG in OT which would have tied the game. This week they come back to Lincoln to host Northern Illinois. The Huskies played at Utah last weekend so they must travel for the 2nd straight Saturday. They battled toe to toe with the Utes for half trailing just 21-17 at the break before losing 35-17. These two last played in 2017 when Northern Illinois came to Lincoln as an 11 point underdog and walked away with a 21-17 upset.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Moves - Week 3
September 12, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 3 Total Moves

Week 2's underdog selections may have stunk up the joint, but last week's total plays were right on point. Oregon came out looking to take someone out behind the woodshed for a thorough beating and did just that against Nevada in an easy 'over' cashing, while the Illinois/Connecticut game topped out just over 50 as expected to stay below any and all moves on that total.

Sweeping the board like that always feels good ? especially when you have an 0fer on the underdogs ? but there is never too much time to pat yourself on the back in this business because then you are missing out on time spent researching and firing on the next winner(s). Can't expect to sweep the board every week, but it never hurts to try, so let's get right to this week's selections.

YTD: 3-1 ATS

Week 3 Total move to disagree with:

Alabama/South Carolina from 59.5 to 61.5
Disagreeing with a move on an Alabama total in Week 1 accounted for my only loss of the year so far with these total plays, but that isn't stopping me from going back to the well in that regard this week.

The market has seen early love for the high side of this total as Alabama rolls in to South Carolina needing to win by 26+ to cover the spread. Having averaged 52 points on offense for the first two weeks, you can get why an opening number of 60 did look low to many, hence the support for the high side of this number. I mean, whether Alabama covers this spread or not, it's hard not to believe they roll in this game as it is.

However, after Nick Saban spent much of the early week complaining about early start times due to the heat in the region, I'm not sure he's looking to run his guys up and down the field all afternoon here, as this may be one of those ?get in, get out? type wins for Alabama this week. There is no concern about a big game upcoming, but with this being the first SEC game of the season, there will be that extra focus early on as the Tide establish their lead and likely look to bleed the clock from there.

At the same time, given that it is the first SEC road game of the year for Alabama, it's important to note that they have gone 2-3 O/U in that spot the past five years, allowing 7, 0, 43, 10, and 23 points in those games. The game that they pitched a shutout in back in 2017 actually cashed an 'over' as the Tide rolled over Vanderbilt with a 59-0 win, but that total was priced far too low at 42. Saban prides him program on making sure his stellar defense travels well, and that should be the case again this week.

South Carolina's offense is coming off a 72-point performance against Charleston Southern, and whenever there is a major step up in competition level like that, it's hard to expect anything near the same type of success offensively. That's a pretty obvious statement to make given that it's Alabama on the other side of the field, but this Gamecocks offense struggled against North Carolina in the opener, and scoring 10 or fewer points could definitely be in the cards for them this week against the Tide.

Will Muschamp also understands that if his team is to have a shot at pulling off a monumental upset here, it's not going to come in a 40-37 type game, it's going to come in a 28-27 type game, meaning his own defense better show out to stop Tua and company on that side of things.

What it all comes down to here is that to catch an 'over' ticket cashing, you are going to likely need 20+ points from South Carolina in this one, and there are just so many results in terms of game script where that just doesn't end up happening. Alabama's allowed 10 or less in three of those five first road SEC games of the season as it is, and with heat potentially being a factor here, this game has something like 42-13 written all over it.

Week 3 Total move to to agree with:

Clemson/Syracuse from 61 to 65
As I've stated from the start of these pieces a few weeks ago, it's always tough to bet into bad numbers like this and in-game wagering is likely the smarter way to go with these things, especially with a move the size of this one. But it's easy to agree with the 'over' support in this game for a variety of reasons.

The first being that Clemson's defense is in a great spot to have a mental letdown after dominating Texas A&M last week in the 24-10 win. That game was so hyped, and so critical to the potential success of Clemson's season that it's only natural in terms of the human nature concept for those guys to ease up a bit mentally this week against Syracuse. Yes, there have been some recent scares vs the Orange and that would have been a talking point in meeting rooms this week, but as a four TD road favorite, it's easy for those Clemson guys on defense to assume they'll just have to essentially show up and there shouldn't be too much worry about leaving with a W.

Offensively, Clemson's attack has to be salivating at the prospect of facing a Syracuse defense that gave up 63 points to Maryland last week in a game that was expected to be close. Facing that Orange defense might feel like the are up against a middle school team at times after that A&M game, and a team like Clemson that's got some of the best talent in the country on offense should have a field day. They should be able to easily get in the 40's against this team, if not threaten 60 themselves like Maryland did a week ago.

Conversely, Syracuse's offense is looking at this game as a huge redemption spot for them after getting blasted a week ago. And while South Carolina's path to a potential upset has got to come through strong defensive play, for Syracuse to do the same, it's got to be on the shoulders of QB Tommy Devito and the offense.

Devito was talked highly of coming into the year, but he's really yet to show anything of substance in deserving those kind words, and doing so on this stage could flip that narrative in a second. Going up against a Clemson defense that's nowhere near as talented as they have been in recent years, and one that may be lacking focus, this Syracuse attack that's scored 23+ points in this game in three of the past four years ? against those far superior Tigers defensive units ? has a shot to put up 30+ themselves this week if everything goes right.

That's still a big ask, and the best of the number is long gone, but getting 70+ points in this game is highly possible, and if Syracuse gets the ball first and has a quick three-and-out or something like that, the in-game number should be much closer to the opener and it's then where you can comfortably fire away on this 'over'.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Washington State-Houston: 75.5 to 73
Florida Atlantic-Ball State: 67.5 to 64.5
Buffalo-Liberty: 57.5 to 55
Florida-Kentucky: 50.5 to 48

Up
Maryland-Temple: 64 to 66.5
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Colorado State-Arkansas: 60 to 64
Texas State-SMU: 59.5 to 62.5
TCU-Purdue: 51 to 53

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack

Props for Thursday night?s NFL game:

? Over/under passing yards for Jameis Winston: 275.5-

? Will Mike Evans score a TD? Yes +$120, No -$140-

? Over/under receiving yards for Chris Godwin: 59.5-

? Over/under completions for Cam Newton: 22.5-

? Over/under rushing yards for Christian McCaffrey: 80.5-

? Over/under receiving yards for DJ Moore: 60.5-

Quote of the Day
?I don?t think there?s any excuse for how we?re playing. Certainly this time of year, every team has its challenges. We?re just not getting it done. Honestly, we?ve been essentially a .500 team for months now. Even when we were pretty healthy and guys had fewer obstacles and were not coming off injuries and things like that, we didn?t do what we needed to do to separate.?
Theo Epstein, talking about the 2019 Cubs

Friday?s quiz
Who played QB for Tampa Bay when they won their only Super Bowl title?

Thursday?s quiz
NFC West is the only division in the NFL where none of their teams lost last week.

Wednesday?s quiz
Ben Kingsley, Laurence Fishburne played the little kid?s chess mentors in the excellent movie Searching for Bobby Fischer.


*****************************


Friday?s List of 13: Writeup on extra college football games??

13) Ohio St has won at least 18 games in a row vs Indiana, but Hoosiers covered seven of last eight games vs OSU. Buckeyes covered six of last eight visits to Bloomington. Last three years, OSU is 6-8 ATS as a road favorite. Indiana is 3-7 in its last ten games as a home underdog.

12) Maryland ran for 354 yards in its 63-20 win over Syracuse LW. Temple?s only game was an easy win over a -AA team. Over last decade, Terps are 5-4 as a road favorite. Temple covered six of last seven tries as a home dog. Last four years, AAC teams are 10-6 ATS when facing a Big 14 opponent.

11) Pittsburgh split its first two games, both at home; they?re 14-6 ATS in last 20 games as a road dog. Penn State hammered Pitt 51-6/33-14 last two years; under Franklin, Nittany Lions are 18-11-1 as a home favorite. Last six years, Big 14 teams are 19-13-1 in their last 33 games vs ACC teams.

10) Florida Atlantic gave up 93 points, 549 YR in losing first two games to top 25 teams, by 24-34 points. Last 5 years, Owls are 3-8-1 as road favorites. Ball State lost 34-24 to Indiana; Cardinals are 4-9 in last 13 games as a home dog. Last 4+ years, MAC teams are 16-9-1 ATS when playing a C-USA team.

9) Akron lost seven of last eight games with Central Michigan; favorites covered four of last five series games. Zips lost last three visits to CMU, by 21-27-3 points. Zips are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games where spread was 3 or less. Central Michigan is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 games where spread was 3 or less.

8) Alabama won its first two games by combined score of 104-13; last four years, Crimson Tide is 10-4 ATS when laying points on road. South Carolina was outgained 483-270 in its 24-20 loss to UNC; freshman QB Hilinski makes his 2nd college start here. These teams haven?t met since ?10.

7) Colorado State (+13.5) upset Arkansas 34-27 LY, throwing for 389 yards; under Bobo, Rams are 7-4 ATS as road dogs. Arkansas lost 31-17 at Ole Miss LW, giving up 237 YR. Hogs are 7-9 in last 16 games as a HF. Last 4+ years, MAC teams are 8-6 ATS when playing an SEC opponent.

6) North Texas gave up 503 yards in its 49-27 loss at SMU LW; Mean Green is 9-18 in last 27 games as a road dog. California upset Washington 20-19 in Seattle LW; under Wilcox, they?re 1-4-1 as a home favorite. Last seven years, Pac-12 teams are 7-4 ATS when playing a C-USA opponent.

5) Southern Miss (-10.5) was upset 37-31 at home by Troy in last meeting in ?16. USM is 13-9 ATS in its last 22 games as a road dog. Troy beat up on a I-AA team in its only game; they?re 14-7 ATS in last 21 non-conference games. Last 2+ years, Sun Belt teams are 8-3 ATS when facing a C-USA team.

4) Ohio won four of last five games with Marshall; teams last met in ?15. Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt LY, outgained 481-212; they?re 8-3 in last 11 games as a road dog. Marshall lost 14-7 LW in Boise; they were outgained 437-172. Herd is 4-9 in last 13 games s a HF. Last 4+ years, MAC teams are 16-9-1 ATS when playing a C-USA team.

3) Duke got smoked 42-3 by Alabama in its opener; they beat a I-AA team LW. Blue Devils are 6-3-1 in last 10 games as a RF. Middle Tennessee was outgained 453-301 in its 40-21 loss at Michigan; Blue Raiders are 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog. Last 4+ years, ACC squads are 12-6 ATS when facing a C-USA team.

2) Clemson won five of last six games with Syracuse, but split last two, which were decided by total of 7 points. Tigers lost 27-24 (-23) in last visit here in ?17. Clemson is 6-3-1 in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Syracuse is 8-5 in its last 13 games as a home dog; they got whacked 63-20 by Maryland LW, giving up 354 YR.

1) Northern Illinois (+11.5) upset Nebraska 21-17 two years ago, despite being outgained, 384-213. Huskies are 12-5 in last 17 games as a road dog. Nebraska covered twice in its last nine games as a home favorite. Last 2+ years, Big 14 teams are 16-10 ATS when playing a MAC team.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wake, UNC meet in non-conference game
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) Wake Forest and North Carolina officials felt Atlantic Coast Conference schools located about 80 miles apart in the same state should not go seven years without playing each other because of scheduling issues created by expansion.

So they're doing something never before done in the ACC, or possibly any Power Five conference for that matter.

The schools scheduled a couple of games against each other that won't count in ACC standings. The first of these nonconference matchups is Friday night.

''The game is huge and we know that, but it's a weird rivalry because you're rivals, it seems like you should play them every year,'' Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson said. ''And we certainly would be in favor of some type of setup that we get to play Carolina, Duke and N.C. State every year. That would be our preference.

''I think some people are criticizing us for playing this game. But we don't care. This is a game that we want, our fans want, our alumni want, their fans, their alumni. Games like this are good for college football.''

It's the first nonconference game between ACC teams since the league formed in 1953. It's also believed to be the first nonconference game between Power Five schools in the same conference following years of realignment that pushed the ACC, Southeastern and Big Ten conferences to 14 teams each.

The Demon Deacons and Tar Heels used to play each other every year in their long-running series that began in 1888. The series is now frequently on hiatus, and that's why UNC is visiting Wake Forest in this unusual nonconference setting and again in 2021 instead of waiting for the next league meeting set for 2022.

The schools announced the games in January 2015, noting it was the first time teams from the same power conference had agreed to play a nonconference game. There was a similar meeting in the Pac-12 with Colorado and California playing a nonconference game in 2011, though that was the second half of a home-and-home series originally scheduled when the Buffaloes were in the Big 12.

In this case, the longtime series between Wake Forest (2-0) and North Carolina (2-0) took a hit due a scheduling quirk as the ACC expanded.

They had played every year from 1944 to 2004, which was when the ACC expanded by adding Virginia Tech and Miami. The league added Boston College as a 12th member a year later and set up two divisions that split the North Carolina-based ''Big Four'' teams, with Wake Forest and North Carolina State going to the Atlantic, and UNC and Duke entering the Coastal.

After Pittsburgh and Syracuse joined as the 13th and 14th teams, the ACC had an annual eight-game league schedule that has each team play every division foes as well as a designated cross-division partner. That allows for regional rivalry games with teams in the opposite division such as UNC-North Carolina State, Florida State-Miami and Duke-Wake Forest in the ACC or Georgia-Auburn in the SEC.

But with no such designation for UNC-Wake Forest or North Carolina State-Duke (last played in 2013), those games fell into the normal cross-division rotation that takes years to cycle through.

''Even though it's not a conference game, it is a game that historically North Carolina has played,'' UNC coach Mack Brown said. ''And it's one of the things I don't like about the expanded conferences. Wake Forest used to be a real fun game for us every year.''

Some other things to know about Friday's UNC-Wake Forest game:

PICKING BACK UP?

Brown built a top-10 national program during his first UNC tenure from 1988-97 with an emphasis on beating the other instate ACC teams. His Tar Heels won the last 16 of those games from midway through the 1992 season until his departure for Texas late in the 1997 season.

SIBLING RIVALRY

The game will feature a potential collision (or possibly multiple) between brothers Sage and Chazz Surratt. Sage is one of the ACC's leading receivers for the Demon Deacons, while Chazz is a quarterback-turned-linebacker for the Tar Heels.

BIG MOMENTS

The quarterbacks have been clutch. Wake Forest needed Jamie Newman's fourth-down touchdown pass to Kendall Hinton with 1:08 left to beat Utah State in the opener. And UNC true freshman Sam Howell has directed fourth-quarter comebacks to beat South Carolina and Miami - including his winning TD throw with 61 seconds left against the Hurricanes.

NOTABLE INJURIES

The Demon Deacons are expected to be without Hinton (hamstring). The Tar Heels won't have starting center Nick Polino (out indefinitely with a lower-body injury) and starting cornerback Patrice Rene (season-ending knee injury) with injuries suffered in the Miami win.

WAKEYLEAKS REVISITED

The ''WakeyLeaks'' scandal resurfaced as a topic again this week.

A Wake Forest former assistant coach-turned-broadcaster was fired after the school said he leaked or attempted to leak plays to opponents in 2016. That led to suspensions for former Louisville assistant coach Lonnie Galloway and Army defensive coordinator Jay Bateman - both of whom are now on Brown's new staff at UNC.

Neither Clawson nor Brown wanted to discuss it when asked.

''That was three years ago, we've moved past it,'' Clawson said. ''There's nothing positive that comes from even going there.''

 

[Cnotes53]

BC's Addazio, Jayhawks' Miles fondly recall SEC showdowns
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

The first memories that popped into Steve Addazio's mind when he asked about Les Miles was from their days together in the SEC, when he was an assistant at Florida and Miles the head man at LSU.

''He always had the fake on the field goal,'' said Addazio, now Boston College's head coach. ''One year the ball got mishandled. I'll never forget it, watching on the sideline, and it was on the ground. When it hit the ground it could have gone this way or this way, and of course it rolled - like, they got a first down like that. But he's always got some trickeration in his bag.''

It's that trickeration - the perfect made-up word for Miles, mind you - that in part made Addazio so happy to see his old coaching crony come out of a brief hiatus to rebuild lowly Kansas.

''He makes college football fun in a lot of ways,'' said Addazio, whose team faces the Jayhawks on Friday night in Chestnut Hill. ''Not just with that but just with personality and everything else. He's been in a lot of big-time ballgames, and certainly one of the great coaches in our game.''

It's hard to say whether Miles is having much fun this week. The Jayhawks lost a nail-biter at home to Coastal Carolina last weekend. But one thing is certain: It might take one of the great coaches in college football to build Kansas into anything resembling a winner.

For his part, Miles insisted this week that he knew what he was getting into when he replaced the fired David Beaty after last season. The Jayhawks have churned through coaches, struggled to win games and languished so far in the Big 12 basement that they've been a national laughingstock.

The goal is ultimately to do what Addazio has done, slowly build a consistently winning program. The Eagles have been to five bowl games the past six seasons.

''We're not there yet,'' Miles said. ''Not that we won't be able to do the things we want to do, but we just haven't gotten there yet. We're going to continue to improve.''

Unlike under previous Kansas coaches, from Turner Gill to Charlie Weis, there is reason to believe Miles can accomplish that much. He took Oklahoma State from doormat to winner, and he had the Tigers competing for SEC superiority back in the days when Addazio was at Florida.

''He gets his teams ready to play,'' Addazio said. ''I always felt like, when you played LSU, they were ready to roll. They had some great players, super talented players. He's got personality with it.''

There is no question Boston College (2-0) has the talent advantage when the Jayhawks (1-1) visit Friday night, but Miles knows he could jumpstart his rebuild with a bounce-back win on the road.

BENDING DEFENSE

Boston College has allowed gobs of yards through the first two games, including 377 rushing to Virginia Tech and Richmond. But while Addazio called it ''a concern,'' he should feel good about the fact that Kansas only managed 280 yards of total offense against the Chanticleers.

''We've kind of bent but we haven't broken,'' Addazio said. ''I think scores are what scare me.''

STICKING WITH STANLEY

Jayhawks quarterback Carter Stanley was 13 of 19 for 107 yards and two interceptions last week, leading to speculation he would be replaced by transfer Thomas MacVittie. Not so fast.

''He was guilty of trying to make plays, OK? And it's the right thing,'' Miles said. ''He's a guy that's accountable. I think he'll step in and with opportunity play well. I'm not going to make a change at this time.''

MCDUFFIE WATCH

Eagles linebacker Isaiah McDuffie, who is coming back from offseason knee surgery, is unlikely to play this weekend. But he might not be far off. ''He's really improving all the time,'' Addazio said. ''I kind of just go through each week. We're not going to rush anybody.''

BRUISING BACKS

Boston College is led by two of the biggest running backs in the country in 6-foot, 250-pound AJ Dillon and 6-1, 240-pound David Bailey. How do you stop them?

''Well, we've got to get numbers to the ball and make sure we match their intensity,'' Miles said, ''and play physical football ourselves.''

SCHEDULE SITUATION

Neither coach had a problem playing Friday night, even though the short week forced them into a condensed preparation.

''You can't spin your wheels on Sunday, for example,'' Addazio said. ''We don't want to short change (last week's) win, but you can't spend all day on that win.''

Or in the case of the Jayhawks, dwell on a loss. ''We like the schedule,'' Miles said. ''We feel good about it.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Washington State plays Houston in first big test for Cougs
September 12, 2019
By The Associated Press

Here are some things to watch in the Pac-12 Conference this week:

GAME OF THE WEEK:

No. 20 Washington State (2-0) against Houston (1-1) at NRG Stadium. Are the Cougars the real deal? Washington State will get its first real test of the season Friday night in Texas. The Cougs had easy wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado in Pullman to start the season. Anthony Gordon is averaging 400-plus yards in two straight games. Brandon Arconado caught eight passes for 127 yards and a score in Washington State's 59-17 win over FCS-level Northern Colorado last weekend. But Mike Leach knows the team hasn't shown anything yet. ''I think that we're not just a team that's improving, but we're one that desperately needs to improve. If we don't improve, we are going to be an incredibly average team,'' he said. Houston fell to Oklahoma in Norman in its opener but beat Prairie View A&M last weekend. Junior running back Kyle Porter had a career-high 120 yards rushing in the victory. It is the fourth meeting between the two teams, and the Cougars hold a 2-1 edge.

MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: USC quarterback Kedon Slovis against BYU. The Trojans' freshman quarterback made his debut as a starter in last weekend's win over Stanford and surprised almost everyone by throwing for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinal. Slovis took over at QB for the No. 24 Trojans after J.T. Daniels was hurt in the opener. What will he do as an encore? BYU is 1-1 with a loss in the season-opening Holy War against Utah before an overtime win last weekend over Tennessee. BYU is allowing opponents 393 total yards of offense a game (83rd nationally), but just 141 passing yards to rank No. 20 in pass defense. Linebacker Kavika Fonua is coming off a career game with 10 tackles against Tennessee and an interception that helped set up a touchdown.

NUMBERS GAME: Cristian Zendejas was a Pac-12 Player of the Week after his debut for Arizona State last week, kicking field goals of 36, 26, 35 and 26 yards in a 19-7 Sun Devils win over Sacramento State. Washington's sophomore kicker Peyton Henry was also 4-for-4 last weekend against Cal, including a 49-yarder. ... There are five teams nationally that haven't turned the ball over this season, including Utah and Oregon State. ... Steven Montez's 96-yard pass to K.D. Nixon in Colorado's victory over Nebraska last weekend was the longest play from scrimmage in Buffs history. ... Utah's Zack Moss is getting closer to the school's career rushing record of 3,219 yards set by Eddie Johnson from 1984-88. Moss is just 301 yards shy at 2,918 yards. ... Oregon's Justin Herbert has thrown a touchdown pass in 30 straight games, the longest current streak in the nation. ... Arizona State is 2-0 but faces a tough test on the road against No. 18 Michigan State (2-0) on Saturday. Likewise, Stanford (1-1) is at No. 17 UCF (2-0) this weekend.

UPSET WATCH: It in all likelihood it won't happen, but it would sure shake things up if Hawaii (2-0) beat its third straight Pac-12 team on Saturday when the Rainbow Warriors visit Washington (1-1). Hawaii surprised Arizona 45-38 in the season opener then bested Oregon State 31-28 last weekend. Hawaii has never defeated three Power 5 schools in a single season. Fun Fact: One of the Rainbow Warriors' biggest upsets came against Washington in 1974, when they were 50-point underdogs and won 10-7. For this matchup, Hawaii is a 21+-point underdog. No. 23 Washington is coming off a stormy upset loss to California.

IMPACT PERFORMER: Washington State quarterback Anthony Gordon appears to be picking up right where Gardner Minshew left off. The senior quarterback is ranked second nationally for average passing yards per game at 442, second for total offense with an average of 443.5 yards a game, third for completions per game with an average of 30, fourth for completion percentage at .811 and finally, third with a 218.9 quarterback rating.

 

[Cnotes53]

Washington State vs. Houston
September 11, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Washington State vs. Houston
Venue/Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 13, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Washington State -9, Total 75.5

Fans of defensive-oriented football better duck for cover on Friday night as this Washington State/Houston game has a chance to go full ?air raid? on us all. Houston HC Dana Holgorsen is a disciple of Washington HC Mike Leach, having played for Leach (as an OC) in the early 1990's and coached alongside him at Texas Tech for seven years at the turn of the century.

Offensive football is what it's all about for these two guys, and with a total in the mid-70's for this game, points aren't likely to be hard to come by. That doesn't necessarily mean that the 'over' is the play for this game ? although it's the only side of the total that's seen significant action so far this week ? but plenty of throws will be attempted from both sides in this game and it might end up being one of those games where whomever has the ball last comes out on top.

The lone time these two coaches squared off against one another was in 2009, as Leach was in his final year at Texas Tech and Holgorsen was the OC at Houston. It was the Houston Cougars who came out ahead that day (29-28) on a TD in the final minute of the game. That game also had a closing total of 75.5, so it's not like these two guys can't easily go 'under' the number, as sometimes familiarity in knowing what to expect from the opposition is the great equalizer in terms of a lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Will that be how this year's game plays out?

Having that history from the 2009 game between these two coaches had to play a part in the oddsmakers setting this total in the mid-70's as it's been bet up a shade from opening at 74.5. The point spread is a lot closer then the FG Houston was getting as a home dog back then, and with the betting market quickly pushing this spread through the key number of -7 after opening up in the -6 range on Washington State, there is strong sentiment that the teacher (Leach) will get the best of his protege (Holgorsen) this time around.

That type of move in favor of Wazzu is impossible to ignore, but it's also tough to support. For one, you are getting the worst of the number by far right now, and two, it's a long cross-country trek for the Washington State on a short week, right before Pac-12 play kicks off for them next week.

At the same time, Houston's defense was carved up by Oklahoma in Week 1, as it was there abysmal play that got the discussion started about Jalen Hurts now being a tremendous passer. I'm more inclined to believe Hurts' 332 passing yards on 20-for-23 throwing had more to do with Houston's ineptitude on defense then it was Hurts improvement, but there is still a full year left for Hurts to prove me wrong in that regard. For this game though, it's that hypothesis that I'm still standing behind, which suggests that Houston's defense is likely going to get carved up once again.

Supporting that notion is the fact that Wazzu has scored 50+ points in both games so far this year ? albeit against very weak competition ? but those results put Washington State in a nice 'over' spot that I discussed earlier in the week here. I don't think Houston gives up 50 or more, but the Sooners did fall one point shy of that number and that was with the game being just 7-0 for Oklahoma after the first quarter. If Leach's squad can put up multiple major scores in that first 15 minutes, I wouldn't put it past Washington State scoring 50+ here.

Heck, Washington may need that many points just to cover the point spread or perhaps even win the game, as Houston?s offense will score plenty of points as well being in the third week of Holgorsen's system. Washington State's defense does have decent looking numbers defensively, at least on the surface, but again you've got to go back to the quality level of the competition they've faced so far and it's not anywhere close to good. Even last week's game against Northern Colorado was relatively tight at the half (24-10 lead for Wazzu as -43 favorites), and this is a significant step up for Wazzu's defense to be facing, in a tough spot on the road.

So while it's not anything like the best play of the week by far, as it's hard to ignore the ?publicness? of an 'over' play for this game, it's probably the only way to go. Sure, you could get beat with a game that finishes 40-33 or something like that, but even for someone like me who prefers to be contrarian ? sometimes just for the sake of being contrarian ? it's probably too hard to stomach holding an 'under' ticket for this game if you are going to watch it.

The side has lost all value in terms of backing the visitors, as this easily could end up being a one-score game between these two coaches again, but Washington State could also be the ones who pull away late and do win by double figures.

So it's the 'over' or nothing for me here, as the air raid offense in college football gets the full primetime treatment on Friday night.

Best Bet: Over 75.5
Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 1-1 ATS

 

[bosbabiesarm]

I like reading your stuff notes. Keep up the great work. I?m sure everyone enjoys.

 

[Cnotes53]

Your welcome Bob...............good luck and have a great weekend.

:toast:

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UNC at WAKE 06:00 PM
UNC +3.0
U 65.0

KU at BC 07:30 PM
BC -20.0
U 50.5

WSU at HOU 09:15 PM
WSU -9.0
O 73.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Wake Forest beats North Carolina 24-18 in nonconference game
September 13, 2019
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WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) Jamie Newman and Wake Forest had gone from dominant to hanging on, with North Carolina on the verge of yet another fourth-quarter comeback in a suddenly tense finish.

Yet these Demon Deacons have proven they can come up with big late-game plays, too.

Newman directed a clock-draining fourth-quarter drive, then watched as the Tar Heels ran out of time on their desperate final possession in Wake Forest's 24-18 win Friday night in an unusual nonconference matchup between same-state Atlantic Coast Conference teams.

''Making those first downs and driving the ball, that drive was the game-saver,'' Demon Deacons coach Dave Clawson said. ''Because if they get the ball back at midfield or on their 30 with 4 1/2 minutes left and three timeouts, I wasn't feeling real good about it.''

Newman and the Demon Deacons (3-0) took care of that.

The Tar Heels (2-1) had just closed a 21-0 deficit to 21-18 on Sam Howell's second fourth-quarter touchdown pass with 6:09 left, and the pressure increased when Newman took a sack to set up a second-and-16.

But Newman hit Scotty Washington for a 27-yard gain over the middle, then followed three plays later with a 4-yard scramble on third down to keep possession. That drive ultimately forced the Tar Heels to use all three of their timeouts, though not before Wake Forest had burned 5 minutes and tacked on a field goal.

That 12-play, 61-yard drive wasn't as dramatic as the one Newman led in the opener, ending with winning fourth-down touchdown throw with 1:08 left to beat Utah State.

It was a winner all the same.

''We stayed calm on the sideline,'' Newman said. ''We didn't panic. We've been in those situations before.''

UNC had a final drive, but the game ended when Michael Carter didn't get out of bounds in time on a run to set up a final desperation heave from just across midfield.

''The first half, we didn't feel like ourselves,'' Howell said. ''Most of that is because of me. I didn't play very well in the first half. We just fought as hard as we could in the second half and ended up running out of time.''

THE TAKEAWAY

UNC: The Tar Heels came in brimming with confidence after rallying from 20-9 down against South Carolina in the opener, then beating Miami on Howell's TD throw with 61 seconds left last week. This time, they dug themselves a hole they couldn't come back from with a miserable first-half performance then couldn't get the late-game stop quick enough to pull off another rally.

''I didn't think we played well emotionally in the first quarter and parts of the first half,'' UNC coach Mack Brown said, adding: ''We weren't used to this position to be in.''

Wake Forest: The good news is Wake Forest spent much of this one pushing the Tar Heels around, with Kenneth Walker running for 94 yards and receiver Sage Surratt having a career-best day with nine catches for 169 yards and a 51-yard TD catch from Newman. The bad news is Wake Forest didn't finish particularly well outside of that clock-killing drive, watching a well-in-hand game get unexpectedly tense in the final minutes.

THE FINAL PLAY

The Tar Heels were running out of time after Howell was taken down on a 3-yard run, forcing a hurried fourth-down play. Carter took the handoff and headed toward the UNC sideline for 13 yards with a chance to get out of bounds and stop the clock.

But Carter was pushed out of bounds by tacklers, and officials ran off the field immediately without a replay as Wake Forest's bench began spilling onto the field to celebrate.

''Honestly I kind of slowed down to try to set the blocks up,'' Carter said. ''If I would've just run straight out of bounds, we probably would've had probably like 3 seconds left. But I thought it was going to be the last play of the game. That was a mental error by me.''

INJURIES ABOUND

UNC didn't have starting receiver Antoine Green, center Nick Polino and defensive lineman Jason Strowbridge due to injuries, then lost offensive lineman Jordan Tucker to an apparent leg injury. For Wake Forest, No. 2 rusher Cade Carney didn't play due to injury, though Clawson said he was available in an emergency.

OUT OF THE ACC

This one doesn't count in the ACC standings. The teams had agreed in 2015 to play this year and in 2021 instead of waiting until 2022 for their next ACC matchup amid the 14-team league's scheduling rotation for teams in opposite divisions.

UP NEXT

UNC: The Tar Heels return home to host Appalachian State on Sept. 21.

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons host Elon on Sept. 21.

 

[Cnotes53]

Jayhawks halt long road skid against Power 5 schools
September 13, 2019
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BOSTON (AP) ��� Kansas coach Les Miles' return to college football brought him some quick joy.

It also brought the Jayhawks something they haven't had in a long time - a road win at a Power Five school.

Carter Stanley threw for three touchdowns, Khalil Herbert rushed for 187 yards on just 11 carries and Kansas stunned Boston College 48-24 Friday night for its first road win over a Power Five team in nearly 11 years.

The Jayhawks (2-1), who entered as a three-touchdown underdog, won their first road game against a power conference opponent since a victory at Iowa State on Oct. 4, 2008, a span of 48 straight losses. Pooka Williams ran for 121 yards on 22 attempts with a TD, and Herbert added a late score. Stanley was 20 of 27 for 238 yards with an inception on his first attempt.

"If anybody wants to know why a guy would come back to college football, this tells you how fun and how important college football is," said Miles, hired by the school last November after being fired from LSU two years ago.

"It shows the Jayhawks are coming," he said. "I think it's very realistic that we can be a great program and have real quality football teams year after year - not today, not tomorrow. Shortly, in the future."

AJ Dillon ran for 151 yards on 27 carries and Anthony Brown went 18 for 36 with 195 yards a TD pass for the Eagles (2-1). Brown also caught a TD.

"We didn't play very well," BC coach Steve Addazio said. "I think we saw a few signs of this last week. I think today that we didn't play well at all, and that's my responsibility."

Kansas went into the locker room with a 28-24 lead at the end of a wide-open first half that saw the teams combine for 623 yards (BC 313, Kansas 310). They also totaled 17 plays of 10 yards or more.

"I've been a Kansas fan my whole life and I can't remember when it was," Kansas linebacker Jay Dineen said of the last Power Five road win. "It's huge having it off our shoulders."

Trailing 24-21, Kansas ran a simple pitch play at their own 15 with 40 seconds left and Herbert broke up-the-middle and headed down the right sideline for 82 yards before being knocked out of bounds.

"We needed to get this win," Stanley said. "The manner that we got it was huge."

Two plays later, Stanley hit Andrew Parchment - his second of two TD catches - for a 3-yard score.

Midway into the third quarter, the Jayhawks increased it to 38-24 when Williams had a 12-yard scoring run, capping an 87-yard drive.

BC had taken a 24-21 edge when Brown caught his 12-yard score from receiver CJ Lewis.

The Eagles scored on their first two drives and led 10-0 before the Jayhawks scored on six straight possessions.

THE TAKEAWAY

Kansas: The Jayhawks rebounded from a miserable loss at home against Coastal Carolina when they collected only 280 total yards by putting up 567 yards Friday. . They beat Central Michigan on the road last season. Before that, their last road win was at Texas El-Paso on Sept. 12, 2009.

Boston College: It's the worst home - and probably overall - loss in Addazio's seven seasons at the school. Unless the defense gets fixed quickly, it could lead to a rough year when conference play and a tough late schedule loaded with road games at Clemson, Syracuse and Pittsburgh - and a nonconference matchup at Notre Dame - kicks in.

FLYING QB

On a third-and-4 at BC's 28 early in the second quarter, Stanley rolled to his left on a keeper and hurdled over Eagles' DB Nolan Bergersen for a first down.

Miles was fired up on the sideline.

"It shows everybody that he cares as much as they do to put your body at risk for his teammates. They realize that," Miles said before joking. "There's somethings that I'd like to take back - like the jump over the top of the guy."

BIG CHUNKS

Kansas had five scoring drives of 78 yards or more, finding big holes through BC's defense on numerous plays.

ERASE THE PAIN

"Moving forward, I think you're going to see a hungrier team - a team that's not really taking any of these shots for granted," Dillon said.

UP NEXT

Kansas: Hosts West Virginia in its first Big 12 matchup next Saturday.

Boston College: Travels to Rutgers next Saturday for its first road game.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gordon leads No. 20 Washington State over Houston 31-24
September 13, 2019
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HOUSTON (AP) After No. 20 Washington State struggled to get going early on Friday night against Houston before pulling away in the second half for a win, coach Mike Leach lamented that his team didn't have more time to play.

''I almost wish we had a fifth quarter because I thought we had more work to do and we could have grown a little bit more,'' he said. ''I thought we were playing our best football at the end.''

Anthony Gordon threw for 440 yards and three touchdowns for his third straight 400-yard game as Washington State got the 31-24 victory.

Gordon threw a 7-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter and had two 39-yard scoring throws, including one in the third quarter that gave Washington State (3-0) the lead for good.

''I thought we were frantic the first half both offensively and defensively,'' Leach said. ''Then when we settled in I thought we played well the second half.''

It was the first meeting as head coaches for Leach and Houston's Dana Holgorsen, who first met almost 30 years ago when Holgorsen played at Iowa Wesleyan, where Leach was an assistant.

The two coached together at both Valdosta State and Texas Tech and have remained close since that time, adding some familiarity to this game between teams meeting for just the fourth time.

''Me and him go way back ... it's fun to compete with him,'' Holgorsen said. ''I thought our kids played hard and gave ourselves a chance, just came up a little short.''

D'Eriq King had 128 yards passing and a score and added 94 yards rushing and two touchdowns on a night Houston (1-2) led 14-7 at halftime. But Houston struggled to move the ball in the second half, lost two fumbles and didn't get in the end zone after halftime until King's 12-yard run with 2:21 left cut the lead to 31-24.

''We don't want moral victories or any of that ... we didn't play good enough to win,'' Holgorsen said. ''Didn't make enough plays and the ball didn't bounce our way enough for us to come out of here with a win and that needs to happen next week.''

Brandon Arconado had nine receptions for 115 yards and Max Borghi added 61 yards receiving and ran for a touchdown in the third quarter to help Washington State to the victory.

''We were a little out of control in the first half,'' Gordon said. ''We had some positive plays, but we were kind of stepping on our own feet taking penalties and me taking a sack ... we relaxed and trusted our game plan. I went through my reads and gave my playmakers the ball.''

Houston went for it on fourth-and-1 on its first drive of the second half and fumbled the snap. Washington State recovered and Borghi caught a 17-yard pass on the ensuing drive and tied it at 14-all with a 1-yard scoring run.

Gordon used a perfect throw to deposit the ball between two defenders to Dezmon Patmon for a 39-yard touchdown midway through the third to give Washington State its first lead of the game 21-14.

King looked to have scored on a 72-yard run late in the third quarter, but Jeremy Singleton was called for holding and it was brought back. Houston's drive stalled after that and the team had to punt.

There were about 11 minutes left when Houston got within 21-17 with a 42-yard field goal.

Another touchdown pass by Gordon, this one a 7-yard strike to Travell Harris, pushed Washington State's lead to 28-17 with about seven minutes remaining.

Houston took a 7-0 lead midway through the second quarter when King capped a 15-play, 82-yard drive with a 13-yard TD pass to Marquez Stevenson.

Washington State tied it up on the next drive when Easop Winston got in front of the defense to grab a 39-yard touchdown reception from Gordon.

''What I thought was impressive about him is he got better as the game went on,'' Leach said of Gordon. ''He got more precise. He got sharper with his throws and was quicker to get his eyes in the right place.''

King put Houston back on top 14-7 when he sneaked on from 1-yard out on the next drive. King has at least one TD pass and one scoring run in 14 straight games to tie the FBS record for consecutive games with a TD run and passing touchdown set by Tim Tebow.

Washington State put together a nice drive after that, but Gleson Sprewell made an acrobatic interception in the end zone to allow Houston to keep the lead heading into halftime. The play extended Houston's streak of games with a takeaway to 20, which is the longest active streak in the nation. It was also Houston's 103rd interception since 2013, which is the most in the country in that span.

THE TAKEAWAY

These teams combined for 209 yards of penalties on Friday night, something they'll need to clean up before the two schools open conference play next week.

THEY SAID IT

Holgorsen on the challenges of playing against a team with a longtime coach when he's in the first year at Houston: ''Mike he's been there eight years, I've been here eight months. I'm not frustrated with it, but I am disappointed in the loss and we've got to get better.''

UP NEXT

Washington State: Opens Pac-12 Conference play against UCLA next Saturday.

Houston: Visits Tulane on Thursday in its American Athletic Conference opener.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

Washington State should maintain its spot in the poll after taking care of business against unranked Houston.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%.......-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%........-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.........-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%.......+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%...... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%...... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%...... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%....... -3.00

Totals..............61-85-4...... 41.78%..... -162.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................20 - 36...........-97.00............24 - 28.............-34.00.............-131.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

? Cubs 17, Pirates 8? Total was 11; game went over in third inning.

? Kansas 48, Boston College 24? Jayhawks were a 19-point underdog.

? Wake Forest 24, North Carolina 18? Wake led 21-0, hung on for dear life.

? Dodgers 9, Mets 2? Kershaw is 10-0 in 15 career starts vs New York.

? Toronto 6, New York 5 (12)? Bichette hit a walk-off homer in 12th.

? Golfer Kevin Chappell birdied nine holes in a row, shot 11-under 59 at the Greenbrier in West Virginia.

Quote of the Day
?A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants.?
Chuckles the Clown, from The Mary Tyler Moore Show

Saturday?s quiz
Which NFL team did OJ Simpson finish his career with?

Friday?s quiz
Brad Johnson played QB for Tampa Bay when they won their only Super Bowl title.

Thursday?s quiz
NFC West is the only division in the NFL where none of their teams lost last week.

***********************

Saturday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??

13) Back in my college days (yes, I went to college, and even graduated), used to have a recurring argument with a friend of mine about handicapping and using trends in picking winners.

I was (am) a nerd, and believed strongly in trends; I still do, although not as blindly as I did back then- there are many things that go into trying to pick winners. He argued (very loudly at times) that I was an idiot and totally wrong.

With that in mind, here are a couple trends that involve early season NFL games??

12) Over last 20 years, Steelers have lost 11 games by 20+ points; they?re 10-1 vs spread the week after those games. 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 as an underdog.

11) Over last five years (2014-18), Week 2 road teams who were also on the road in Week 1 have gone 2-16 against the spread; 1-7 when favored, 1-9 when getting points.

10) Jets? QB has Sam Darnold has mononucleosis; he will miss Monday night?s game and maybe several more games. Trevor Siemian will start for the Jets Monday night against the Browns.

In Adam Gase?s first 51 games as an NFL head coach, he?s started six different QB?s.

Cleveland is now -6 or -6.5 Monday night, up from -2.5.

Darnold gets lot of credit from me just for playing last week; I had mono back when I was 20 years old (long, long time ago) and that is the worst I?ve ever felt, the a few days before a doctor told me I had mono. Darnold had to feel horrible, yet he played the whole game.

Back then, I was out of school for a month; now that was many moons ago, and Darnold has the best medical care for sure, but hard to believe he?ll be back before Week 8. Jets have their bye in Week 4, which helps a little.

9) If there is a 3-way tie for the two AL Wild Card spots:

A?s host Tampa Bay ? winner is #1 Wild card
Loser hosts Indians for #2 Wild Card.

8) San Francisco 49ers won in Tampa Sunday but didn?t go home after; they?re practicing in Youngstown, OH this week, in advance of their game Sunday in Cincinnati.

7) NFL stuff:
? Buffalo LB Tyrel Dodson was suspended six games for violation of the league?s personal conduct policy.
? Jets? QB Sam Darnold (mono) is out indefinitely.

6) Baseball stuff:
? New York DH Edwin Encarnacion left Wednesday?s game (oblique)
? Angels? DH Shohei Ohtani (knee surgery) is out for the season.

5) Last week, Alabama had 13 DB?s, 10 linebackers, 6 defensive tackles and 6 running backs on NFL rosters, all the most of any college at that position.

4) Antonio Brown has settled on wearing #17 with New England; his dad Eddie Brown was a great player in the Arena League, scored nine TD?s in one game- he wore #17 for the Albany Firebirds, who won the Arena Bowl 20 years ago.

3) This from Chris Fallica: This weekend?s college football schedule is the first week without a matchup of ranked teams since Week 7 of 2017. That weekend, seven ranked teams got beat, three of them as favorites of 16+ points, so you never know.

2) Showtime has a weekly program during football season Inside the NFL, but I?m not a fan; way too much talking, not enough highlights or information. A gambling-related segment would be helpful; their guys pick games, but it just isn?t as good as it could/should be.

1) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14:
? Tampa won for just 2nd time in last seven visits to Charlotte.
? Bucs have now won four of last five road openers.
? WR Godwin caught eight balls for 121 yards; defenses focus on Mike Evans, and Godwin takes advantage of that.

? Cam Newton was 24-50 passing, ran twice for no yards.
? Teams combine to convert only 5-26 on third down.
? A gambler at PointsBet USA bet $100K on Carolina -7. Oy.

 

[Cnotes53]

Florida at Kentucky
September 13, 2019
By Brian Edwards

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats
Venue/Location: Kroger Field Lexington, KY
Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 14, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Florida -8.5, Total 48.5

Florida will be looking to avenge its first loss to Kentucky in 31 years when it comes to Kroger Field in Lexington on Saturday night. The Wildcats put decades of misery against the Gators in the rearview mirror by capturing a 27-16 win at UF as 13.5-point road underdogs at The Swamp last season.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Florida (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) installed as an eight or 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 48. Kentucky was +260 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

The total opened at 50.5 points but has been steadily falling throughout the week.

Kentucky (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) came into the season with 10 straight ATS defeats from the home ?chalk? role, but it has taken the cash in each of its first two games. Mark Stoops?s squad beat Toledo 38-24 as a 10-point home favorite before posting a frontdoor cover in a 38-17 victory over Eastern Michigan as a 16.5-point home favorite last Saturday night.

The win over the Eagles was bittersweet, however, as Kentucky QB Terry Wilson suffered a season-ending patellar tendon tear in his left knee. Since arriving in Lexington via the juco route after starting his career at Oregon, Wilson has led the ?Cats to a 12-3 record in 15 career starts.

Fortunately for UK, it landed Troy grad transfer QB Sawyer Smith in the spring. (Remember, former back-up Gunner Hoak transferred to Ohio State) Smith connected on 114-of-229 attempts (62.9%) for 1,669 yards with a 14/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Trojans in 2018.

After Wilson went down in the third quarter vs. EMU, Smith completed 5-of-9 throws for 76 yards and two TDs without an interception. With Kentucky ahead 31-17 late in the fourth quarter, it would normally be a time to milk clock with victory secured. Stoops wanted Smith to get some work in before facing Florida, though, so the ?Cats were airing it out as if they needed points badly.

As it turns out, they certainly did need points for our purposes. With 54 seconds remaining, UK went ahead of the number on a two-yard TD pass from Smith to Lynn Bowden.

EMU quickly marched down the field and was in position for a potential backdoor cover. Chris Creighton?s team had two timeouts remaining, but he didn?t use any of them to conserve clock. Nevertheless, the Eagles were at UK?s 10-yard line with 10 ticks left. They were unable to punch it in before time ran out.

Florida opened the season on Aug. 24 in Orlando vs. Miami. The Gators failed to cover the spread in a 24-20 win as seven-point favorites, while the 44 combined points dipped ?under? the 46.5-point total.

UF fourth-year junior QB Feleipe Franks threw for 254 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice. In fact, he threw one of the worst picks you?ll ever see with the Gators leading by four in their own territory with less than five minutes remaining. Nevertheless, Florida?s defense bailed out its QB and escaped unscathed.

Dan Mullen?s team won its home opener over UT-Martin by a 45-0 count as a 44.5-point favorite last Saturday night. Franks bounced back with one of the best performances of his career, completing 25-of-27 passes for 270 yards and two TDs without an interception. The Wakulla (Fla.) High School product also had 37 rushing yards on six attempts, while Lamical Perine had 51 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries.

Van Jefferson had four receptions for 94 yards and one TD, while Trevon Grimes had five catches for 56 yards. Tyrie Cleveland had three grabs for 52 yards and one TD, and redshirt freshman WR Jacob Copeland had three receptions for 23 yards and his first career TD.

Florida suffered two key injuries against the Skyhawks, though. Junior cornerback CJ Henderson, a two-time second-team All-SEC selection and preseason All-American who is a projected first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, sprained his ankle. Mullen has dubbed Henderson ?doubtful? all week and bettor shouldn?t expect to see him in uniform.

Also, WR and special-teams dynamo Kadarius Toney went down with a wrist injury that?s expected to keep him out for at least three weeks, possibly longer. Toney is probably UF?s most explosive player, but the Gators are deep at the WR position. Toney turned a receiver screen from Franks into a 66-yard TD pass against the Hurricanes in Week 1.

Florida has won 15 games in a row in Lexington. The Gators, who haven?t tasted defeat at UK since 1986, are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the ?Cats and 5-1 ATS in their last six at Kroger Field.

Kentucky is abysmal 4-12-2 in 18 games as a home underdog during Stoops?s seven-year tenure.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Going into Friday?s showdown vs. Washington State as a 9.5-point underdog at NRG Stadium, Houston is 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 underdog spots.

-- Kansas State, a seven-point road underdog Saturday at Mississippi State, is an incredible 23-8 ATS as a road underdog since 2010.

-- On Tuesday, Stanford head coach David Shaw announced that QB K.J. Costello (concussion) is ?probable? for Saturday?s game at UCF. Without Costello after he was injured late in the first half, Stanford went scoreless offensively in the final 30 minutes of a 17-7 home win over Northwestern in its opener, getting a defensive TD in the final minute for a miracle cover. Then at USC last week, the Cardinal lost by a 45-20 count to the Trojans without its star signal caller. Costello had a 29/11 TD-INT ratio in 2018 and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection. That was the good news for Stanford on Tuesday, but the bad news was that OT Walker Little, a projected first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, will have season-ending surgery after dislocating his knee vs. Northwestern. UCF?s strength of schedule took a hit when USC blasted Stanford and Pittsburgh lost 30-14 to Virginia in Week 1 (the Knights play at Pitt in Week 4). UCF would love to see Temple beat Maryland this weekend and the Panthers pull a stunner at Penn State (ain?t happenin?). The Knights, who were 7.5-point home ?chalk? to the Cardinal as of Tuesday, were up to nine-point favorites Friday afternoon. They?re 7-2 ATS as home favorites on Josh Heupel?s watch, 36-21-1 ATS in such spots since 2009. This is a 3:30 p.m. Eastern kick on ESPN.

-- You think Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley can coach up some quarterbacks? My goodness! Through two games at OU, former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts has completed 34-of-41 throws (82.9%) for 591 yards with a 6/0 TD-INT ratio. Hurts has 223 rushing yards, three TDs and a 9.3 YPC average.

-- Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar (9/3 TD-INT this year) is ?questionable? (concussion) for Saturday?s home game vs. TCU. Gamblers probably aren?t going to know his status until less than an hour before kick, with many reports indicating he?ll be a game-time decision. Sindelar leads the nation in passing yards, total offense and TD passes. The Boilermakers? senior LB Markus Bailey is ?out? after suffering a season-ending injury at Tuesday?s practice. Bailey was a second-team All-Big-10 selection in 2018 when he recorded 115 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, two passes broken up, two QB hurries, one forced fumble and one pick-six. He was a preseason third-team All-American in Phil Steele?s magazine. Also, Purdue senior OT Matt McCann, who has 38 career starts to his credit, is listed as ?questionable? with an undisclosed injury. The Horned Frogs, who have had two weeks to prepare for the Boilermakers, were two-point road favorites on Friday. Purdue is an atrocious 7-19 ATS as a home underdog since 2012, but it?s 3-1 ATS with two outright wins as a home puppy under Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers covered in a 40-37 home loss to Missouri last year, and then they beat Boston College (30-13) and Ohio State (49-20) in the same role. They bounced back from a 34-31 loss at Nevada to thump Vanderbilt 42-24 as seven-point home favorites last week. Kickoff in West Lafayette is set for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the Big Ten Network.

-- Indiana starting redshirt freshman QB Michael Penix is ?questionable? vs. Ohio State and will be a game-time decision. Penix, who has led the Hoosiers to a 2-0 start by throwing for 523 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio, has an undisclosed injury. Junior Peyton Ramsey will get the starting nod if Penix can?t go. Ramsey has 16 career starts and a 31/18 TD-INT ratio.

-- Arkansas second-year head coach Chad Morris is 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS since taking over in Fayetteville. The wins came at home over Eastern Illinois, Tulsa and Portland State. The Razorbacks are 0-9 against SEC opponents, 1-11 against FBS competition and 1-2 versus Group of Five foes. Morris is 0-4 ATS as a road underdog after dropping a 31-17 decision at Ole Miss, with the Rebels taking the cash as 5.5-point home ?chalk.? Morris is 2-2 versus the number as a home favorite. The Hogs, who were 10-point home favorites as of Friday, will be in revenge mode Saturday when they host Colorado State. The Rams rallied from a double-digit second-half deficit to clip Arkansas 34-27 as 13.5-point home underdogs in Ft. Collins last season.

-- Florida State is a 7.5-point road underdog Saturday night at Virginia. I endorsed a wager on UVA?s season win total to ?over? 7.5 and predicted it to go the ACC Championship game for the first time in school history. The Cavaliers are off to a 2-0 start both SU and ATS, including a 30-14 win at Pitt in ACC play. They?re 6-5 ATS as home favorites on Bronco Mendenhall?s watch, while the Seminoles are 1-2 ATS in three games as road underdogs in Willie Taggart?s two-year tenure that?s been an unmitigated disaster so far. FSU needed ULM, a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team, to miss an extra point to win 45-44 in overtime last Saturday night in Tallahassee. The ?Noles lost 36-31 at home vs. Boise State in their season opener. Since Taggart took over, FSU has limped to a 6-8 SU record and a 4-10 ATS mark. Only three of the six victories have come over against Power Five opponents. One of the wins was a last-second comeback at Louisville (28-24) and another was a 22-21 home victory over Boston College in 2018. If the ?Noles want to fire Taggart at the end of the 2019 campaign, they will owe him an $18 million buyout check. Things are getting ugly in Tallahassee fast, but the school is reportedly dealing with major financial problems.

-- Speaking of ugly, Chip Kelly has lost 11 of 14 games as head coach at UCLA. Also, Tennessee is winless after dropping back-to-back home games to Georgia State (!!!) and BYU (in overtime). There will be tens of thousands of empty seats at Neyland Stadium for Saturday?s home game vs. Chattanooga.

 

[Cnotes53]

Bateman comes full circle as Gophers host Georgia Southern
September 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) When a skinny Rashod Bateman was just beginning to come into his own halfway through high school in Tifton, his southern Georgia hometown, he went with what he knew and made an early verbal commitment to the successful, second-tier program located less than a three-hour drive away.

''Georgia Southern was just like the school you go to,'' Bateman said. ''I didn't think I was going to be that highly recruited.''

His development accelerated, however, and after a standout performance at a summer camp prior to his senior year he had his first scholarship offer from a power conference team: Minnesota. Fast forward to Saturday, when Bateman's fledgling career will experience a full-circle moment with Georgia Southern's visit to TCF Bank Stadium to face his Gophers.

Bateman, the rising star sophomore whose 237 receiving yards rank third in the Big Ten, is one of 12 natives of Georgia on Minnesota's roster. Running back Rodney Smith (Jonesboro), cornerbacks Terell Smith (Snellville) and Chris Williamson (Atlanta), and kicker Michael Lantz (Fayetteville) are among other key players.

Though the Gophers would be hard-pressed to ever turn the heart of SEC country into a true pipeline for talent, the highlight reel that Bateman has already assembled can certainly have a snowball effect.

''People back home down south, not a lot of them think about coming to the north just because it's so far from home and a lot of them are scared of the cold,'' Bateman said. ''But I think once they see success from a kid from down south or from their hometown, I think they feel like they can do the same thing.''

Bateman's mere presence in Minnesota is an example of the culture around the program that coach P.J. Fleck and his staff exalt at every opportunity. As his game took off as a senior for the Tift County Blue Devils, big-time teams became interested. Bateman had late offers from Georgia, South Carolina and Texas A&M, but he refused to budge on the Gophers. He even had the block ''M'' logo tattooed on his arm beneath ''RTB,'' standing for Fleck's ''Row The Boat'' slogan.

Now about 25 pounds heavier than when he first committed to Minnesota, Bateman has become more than simply a sidekick to star senior Tyler Johnson. Opponents can be easily burned by relying on one-on-one coverage against Bateman, as Indiana realized last year when he broke a tie late in the fourth quarter with a 67-yard touchdown reception. South Dakota State found that out, too, when he hauled in, with one hand, a 42-yard catch for a score in the season opener.

Bateman had seven receptions for 105 yards last week at Fresno State, when fellow sophomore Chris Autman-Bell caught a 20-yard touchdown pass in the corner of the end zone on fourth down with 46 seconds remaining to tie the game the Gophers eventually won in two overtimes. Yes, this Minnesota team is as deep at wide receiver as any other in the conference.

''If you saw how hard those guys worked in the offseason and how connected they are,'' quarterback Tanner Morgan said, ''you could see it on the field.''

WINNING WITH WINFIELD

Antoine Winfield Jr. saved the game last week with an interception in the end zone in the second overtime, sealing a 38-35 victory. Sound familiar? Winfield ended last year's matchup with the Bulldogs the same way, with a leaping end zone pickoff late in the fourth quarter to preserve a 21-14 win. Winfield has become the defense's most indispensable player, displaying the same type of football instinct his father had during his 14-year NFL career.

''It's just natural over time, just playing and practicing with the same mentality,'' Winfield said. ''Just go hard and make a play when it comes to you.''

STILL STREAKING

The Gophers, believe it or not, have the longest active nonconference winning streak by an FBS team with 17 straight victories. Their last such loss was on Sept. 3, 2015, a 23-17 decision against second-ranked TCU.

NICE TO MEET YOU

Minnesota has never played Georgia Southern, which won six national championships at the FCS level before moving to FBS in 2014. The Eagles went 10-3 last season and beat Eastern Michigan in the Camelia Bowl. The Gophers are 10-0 all-time against Sun Belt Conference foes.

PLAYING UP

Georgia Southern has played one Big Ten opponent previously, a loss at Indiana in 2017. The Eagles faced Fleck when he was at Western Michigan, splitting a pair of games with the Broncos in 2015 and 2016.

 

[Cnotes53]

Oregon wraps up nonconference play
September 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

EUGENE, Ore. (AP) The No. 15 Ducks may have that high-profile loss in the opener to Auburn but the good news is that they haven't dropped a Pac-12 game - unlike a pair of their northern rivals.

Oregon wraps up its nonconference slate Saturday against Montana, the last tuneup before visiting Stanford next week. Early conference games have already impacted the race in the Pac-12 North, with both the Cardinal and Washington suffering league losses. The Ducks were the preseason pick to win the division.

Oregon (1-1) was still trying to work out details before looking too far ahead. Coach Mario Cristobal, who emphasized physical play throughout the preseason, spoke about it again as a point of emphasis heading into the game against the FCS-level Grizzlies (2-0).

''Sure we're getting better but we still haven't seen our best football,'' Cristobal said. ''We still haven't seen our best performance.''

Oregon is coming off a 77-6 rout of Nevada that helped get the team back on track after the disappointing loss to Auburn. Each of senior quarterback Justin Herbert's five touchdown passes against the Wolf Pack went to different receivers - in fact, 11 different Ducks scored touchdowns.

Montana opened the season with wins over South Dakota and North Alabama, climbing into the STATS FCS Top 25 at No. 20. The Ducks are the second-highest ranked team the Grizzlies have faced in the modern era after a 63-7 loss to No. 7 Washington two years ago.

While Oregon has Herbert, Montana has fifth-year senior Dalton Sneed, who has thrown for 696 yards and four touchdowns so far this season. A dual threat, he's also run for a pair of scores.

Sneed, who started his career at UNLV, was the Big Sky's newcomer of the year last season, when he led the Grizzlies in both passing and rushing. He threw for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns while rushing for 675 yards and two more scores last season.

Sneed has a fan in Cristobal.

''He's a runner, he's a thrower, he's the heart and soul to their team. Very tough, will throw his body around, there's no hesitation in his game whatsoever. The ball is out quick and it's accurate,'' Cristobal said. ''I think he's a special player.''

Other things to know about the matchup:

HISTORY

The Ducks lead the series 7-0-1 with all the games played in Eugene. The closest the Grizzlies came was a 14-all tie in 1952.

Montana knows what it's up against Saturday. ''We just need to keep progressing and improving and getting better. That's what good teams do throughout a season. And certainly, to go in and play the Oregon Ducks we're going to need a great effort,'' Montana coach Bobby Hauck said.

Hauk is in his second stint with the Grizzlies. He coached the team from 2003-09 and was brought back prior to the 2018 season.

ABOUT THAT LINE

Oregon not only has one of the nation's top quarterbacks, it has a stout offensive line protecting him. The Ducks' O-linemen have a collective 163 games among them, most in the nation.

''I've seen a lot of Oregon teams over the years, and to me, this is the best offensive line I've seen in an Oregon uniform,'' Hauck said.

Herbert has thrown for 552 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions this season.

MR. ELECTRICITY

Montana senior receiver Jerry Louie-McGee needs just three catches to break Raul Pacheco's career record of 192 set in 1998. Louie-McGee has 1,928 career receiving yards. He returned a punt for a 74-yard touchdown last week against North Alabama to give him three punt return TDs for his career and earn him Big Sky Player of the Week honors. And yes, his nickname is Mr. Electricity among the Grizz faithful.

PAYDAY

Montana will be paid $650,000 for the visit to Eugene. Hauck was asked about those guarantee games during his Monday news conference.

''With our league having so many members, there aren't many FCS teams in the western U.S. that aren't in our league for the most part,'' he said. ''So, scheduling's difficult and you have to kind of make it work somehow. For us to be able to get regional games and not have to travel to the East Coast to play games is good.''

INJURIES

Oregon may see the Ducks debut of graduate transfer Juwan Johnson, a receiver who missed the first two games with a knee injury. Cristobal put the chances at 50-50 earlier this week. Johnson was expected to be one of Herbert's top targets this season.