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[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

College Football Week 3 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 56-12
Against the Spread 39-28-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 44-24
Against the Spread 32-35-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-36

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 203-28
Against the Spread 116-109-6

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 172-55
Against the Spread 106-115-6

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-121-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up
The Citadel (+27.5, ML +1500) at Georgia Tech, 27-24 (OT)
Kansas (+20.5, ML +800) at Boston College, 48-24
Arizona State (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 10-7
Eastern Michigan (+7.5, ML +230) at Illinois, 34-31
Kansas State (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 31-24
West Virginia (+7, ML +220) vs. N.C. State, 44-27

The largest favorites to cover
Louisiana-Lafayette (-47) vs. Texas Southern, 77-6
Texas A&M (-45.5) vs. Lamar, 62-3
Miami-Florida (-41) vs. Bethune-Cookman, 63-0
Missouri (-35) vs. SE Missouri State, 50-0
Notre Dame (-34.5) vs. New Mexico, 66-14
Georgia (-33) vs. Arkansas State, 55-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Cincinnati bounced back from a shellacking from Ohio State last week, topping Miami-Ohio for the cover as 17-point favorites in their rivalry game. 'Under' bettors lucked out a bit (see below in bad beats). The Bearcats are 2-0 SU/ATS at home, while the 'under' has connected in all three of their outings. ... Temple pulled the mild upset over Maryland, 20-17, cashing +180 on the moneyline. UMD opened as high as an eight-point favorite, falling to 5.5 by gametime. The Owls are now 2-0 SU/ATS through two outings with a trip to Buffalo on deck next week. ... Houston fell to Washington State in NRG Stadium on Friday night in a neutral-site battle, 31-24. It was expected to be a high-scoring game with a line of 74, but a scoreless first quarter helped the total go well under. Houston is 0-2 SU vs. Power 5 teams so far, but 2-0 ATS. The 'under' is 2-0-1 for the Cougars in three games overall. ... Navy roughed up East Carolina in the conference opener for both. The Middies won 42-10, easily covering for the second time in as many games as they improved to 2-0 SU/ATS with the 'under' 2-0.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Wake Forest outlasted North Carolina 24-18 on Friday night in what was actually not a league game despite both being ACC members. Due to the cross-division scheduling in the ACC, these teams were scheduled to meet once every few years, and the schools wanted to ignite the rivalry on a more regular basis. Wake is now 3-0 SU, but this was their first cover (1-1-1 ATS). ... Georgia Tech wasn't as fortunate, falling to FCS The Citadel in overtime in Atlanta, 27-24. The Bulldogs weren't exactly a powerhouse in the FCS, well out of the Top 25 rankings, and receiving just three votes in the past FCS poll. Embarrassing loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. ... Virginia Tech nearly met the same fate, edging Furman 24-17. To be fair, the Paladins were at least ranked No. 13 in the FCS rankings this past week. That's three games and three non-covers for the Hokies, and the 'under' has hit in each of their two home outings. ... Virginia moved to 3-0 SU with a comeback win against Florida State, 31-24. The Seminoles took the 24-17 lead 11:42 to go, but the Hoos rallied with a touchdown at 6:02. However, they misfired on the extra point and were still down 24-23. With 2:34 to go, UVA scored a touchdown with a two-point conversion, causing the line to push at most shops. The two-point conversion also pushed the total 'over' (54).

BIG TEN

-- Ohio State went on the road for the first time this season and throttled Indiana, 51-10. The Buckeyes have scored at least 42 points in each of their three game, but this was their first 'over' result - barely. The game closed at 60.5 at most shops. ... Illinois suffered its first setback of the season against visiting Eastern Michigan, 34-31. It was also the first 'over' result after two unders for the Illini. Illinois tied the game 31-31 with 1:44 to push the total over, but EMU booted a 24-yard field goal with no time left to win it outright. ... Penn State was favored by 17 points against rival Pittsburgh, and if that seemed rather high it's because it was. The Nittany Lions won their rivalry game by a 17-10 count as the 'under' comfortably cashed. It was a departure from the first two games when the Lions posted 79 and 45 against Idaho and Buffalo. It was also PSU's first non-cover in three tries. ... Minnesota avoided the upset bug against Georgia Southern, hanging 35-32. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 SU, but 0-2-1 ATS with a pair of 'over' results in the past two games.

BIG 12

-- Kansas opened the week with a win at Boston College, snapping a 48-game road losing streak against Power 5 teams. Les Miles has the Jayhawks sitting at 2-1 SU, but this was their first win over an FBS team and it was the first cover for Kansas in three games. ... Kansas State also took care of business on the road against a Power 5 team, edging Mississippi State, 31-24. The Wildcats have fired out of the box at 3-0 SU/ATS. ... West Virginia upended N.C. State in Morgantown by a 44-27 count. The matchup in 2018 was wiped out in Raleigh by Hurricane Florence, and the Wolfpack likely wish a storm struck before this one, too. The Mountaineers earned their first win against an FBS team, their first cover and first 'over' in three tries. ... Oklahoma State had their hands full at Tulsa, but they eventually pulled away 40-21. The Cowboys actually trailed 21-20 at half. The Golden Hurricane were blanked in the second half helping the 'under' (64) connected. ... Oklahoma routed UCLA behind QB Jalen Hurts, who ran for 99 yards on the team's first drive. The Sooner ended up with the 48-14 win, improving to 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS ahead of their conference opener with Texas Tech. ... Speaking of the Red Raiders, they were topped 28-14 at Arizona, 28-14. The 'under' has cashed in three straight for the Red Raiders. ... Texas dropped Rice 48-13 in a game featuring some craziness at the end to affect the line and total (see below).

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic stepped out of conference at Ball State for the 41-31 road victory. They're 2-0 SU/ATS on the road so far this season, averaging 31.0 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. The total is 1-1-1 with FAU so far through three games. ... Western Kentucky put a late scare into Louisville side bettors, but the Cards held on for the cover at both 10 and 10.5, depending on when you bet. The Cards had a 31-7 lead at half, and appeared well on the way to an easy cover, but Western fought back to close to 17 with 12:50 to go, but that was the last score of the day. ... North Texas also gave it a nice run at California, but came up short in a 23-17 loss. The Mean Green fell behind 20-0, much to the dismay of UNT side bettors and 'under' (50.5) bettors, but North Texas held Cal to just three points in the final three quarters for the cover and under. It was UNT's first cover in three games, and their first under result.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Central Michigan bounced back from a 61-point drumming at Wisconsin last week, topping Akron 45-24 in the MAC opener for both sides. The 'over' has connected in all three games for the Chippewas so far this season. The over has hit in each of the past two for the Zips, too. Akron slipped to 0-3 SU/ATS overall. ...

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Air Force scored one for the Mountain West, following in the footsteps of Boise State earlier this season. The Falcons picked up a road win against a Power 5 team, besting Colorado in overtime, 30-23. Despite the extra session, 'over' (58.5) bettors were still left with a losing ticket. The Falcons are 2-0 SU/Ats heading into their MWC opener against the aforementioned Broncos on the Smurf Turf next Friday. ... New Mexico was unable to pull the stunner in South Bend, as they were blasted by Notre Dame, 66-14. The Lobos have hit the 'over' in each of their two outings, allowing 97 points in two games. ... Colorado State was also unable to join the group, as they were slapped down at Arkansas by a 55-34 count. This game was actually tied 34-34, but the Rams were blanked 21-0 in the final quarter by Chad Morris' group.

PAC-12

-- Oregon State comfortably passed FCS Cal Poly by a 45-7 score, picking up their second straight cover and 'under' result. ... USC was tripped up in overtime by a 30-27 score at Brigham Young, as the Cougars won in overtime for the second consecutive weekend. Freshman QB Kedon Slovis did all right in his first collegiate road outing, but a tipped pass in OT doomed him. ... Another Pac-12 team took it on the chin in a non-conference road outing, as Stanford was unable to slow UCF. The Knights came away with the 45-27 victory, and over (58.5) bettors were aided by a 28-point first quarter by the Knights, and 35 total points after 15 minutes. ... Arizona State scored a touchdown with :50 left in East Lansing, pulling the 10-7 upset at Michigan State. It's the second consecutive season the Sun Devils topped the Spartans by three points, as they upended Sparty in Tempe by a 16-13 count on Sept. 8, 2018. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for AZ State. MSU appeared to have the game-tying field goal to force OT, but they were whistled for 12 men on the field. The next field, five yards back, was no good. ... Utah belted FCS Idaho State by a 31-0 score, failing to cover the 37.5-number. The Utes moved to 3-0 SU, but they're just 1-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-1.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Tennessee finally found someone they could beat - FCS Chattanooga. The Mocs were the sacrificial lamb on Saturday, falling 45-0 to the Volts, who win for the first time in 2019. It was their first cover of the season, too, and first 'under' result thanks to the defensive effort. ... Georgia wasn't caught looking ahead to Notre Dame, spanking a pretty good Arkansas State team by a 55-0 mark. The UGA offense has piled up 49.3 PPG through three outings, and they're allowed just 7.7 PPG. ... Alabama was able to ease past South Carolina, 47-23. The Gamecocks hung with the Tide through one quarter, trailing 14-10, but the Tide posted at least 10 points in every quarter and the Cocks could not come close to matching that production. ... Mississippi had their hands full with FCS Southeastern Louisiana, but they were able to get the 40-29 win as the 'over' (53) comfortably cashed. The Rebels led just 34-29 after three quarters.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State moved to 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS with a narrow 48-42 win over FCS Furman, a Top 10 team in the FCS rankings. Their unblemished record will be put to the test again next week at Western Michigan of the MAC. ... Georgia Southern picked up a 26-18 win over FCS Maine, bouncing back from a thrashing at the hands of LSU last week. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS so far, though. ... Arkansas State were very rude guests at UNLV, winning 43-17 to bounce back from a loss to SMU last week. The Red Wolves offense is clicking, averaging 36.5 PPG while allowed 27.0 PPG. Next up is a trip to Georgia. Ouch. ... Coastal Carolina dumped FCS Norfolk State by a 46-7 score, moving to 2-1 SU/ATS. The defense has allowed just 7.0 PPG in the past two games, both covers.

Bad Beats

-- In that Miami (Ohio)-Cincinnati game, bettors holding over tickets probably thought they were on easy street after a 24-point third quarter gave the game 48 total points on the board through 45 minutes. That's how the game ended after a scoreless final 15.

-- The same situation happened in another game featuring a MAC club. Western Michigan led Georgia State 57-10 after three quarters with a total of 69.5 on the board. After a scoreless fourth quarter, over bettors were left shaking their heads.

-- Alabama was hammering South Carolina by a 47-16 count with a 1-yard touchdown run from RB Mac Jones with 2:04 to go. However, the Gamecocks kept playing to the end, scoring a touchdown with :11 left on a QB Ryan Hilinski touchdown pass, crushing those who laid the 26 1/2. To be fair, the Tide were covering for a total of just 1:53. South Carolina's drive was aided by a targeting call, too, which plenty in the Twitterverse were unhappy about.

-- In the Texas-Rice game, the Longhorns were favored by 32 with a total of 57. With 7:50 remaining in the game, Texas took a 38-6 lead. The Longhorns kicked a field goal with 3:29 to take a 41-6 lead. With 1:07 to go, Rice appeared to secure the backdoor cover, 41-13. However, the Longhorns ripped off a 98-yard kickoff return for touchdown to not only cover, 48-13, but flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

-- Clemson was leading 34-6 in the final minute at Syracuse. They emptied the bench and a true freshman took it to the house to flip a push at most shops into a cover for the Tigers. You'll definitely see this one on SVP.

-- Moneyline bettors were feeling it in Lexington, as Kentucky, a 10-point 'dog, led 21-10 after three quarters with Florida down to a backup QB after losing Feleipe Franks to a leg injury. Backup Kyle Trask helped the Gators to a go-ahead touchdown with 4:11 to go, making it 22-21. Kentucky misfired on a field goal, and Josh Hammond rubbed salt in the wound with a 78-yard touchdown run to make it 29-21. The TD run with :33 left flipped the under to an over result.

-- Under (63) bettors were feeling good with Texas A&M leading FCS Lamar 55-3 with under two to go. However, the Aggies ripped off a 13-yard touchdown with 1:51 to go, flipping the total to an over result, 62-3.

 

[Cnotes53]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 3
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won?t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the third big weekend of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Wake Forest (-3) 24, North Carolina 18: The Demon Deacons led 21-0 just a few minutes into the second quarter as little went right for the Tar Heels. North Carolina did get a 4th-and-1 stop inside the 10-yard-line to keep the margin at 21 into halftime however. Defense carried the third quarter as there were no points added until North Carolina hit a 49-yard field goal with 41 seconds remaining. After comeback wins in the first two games the Tar Heels made a great run at it again, getting to 21-10 and then 21-18 with about six minutes remaining after going 80 yards in five plays and hitting the two-point conversion. Wake Forest was able to pick up several first downs to exhaust North Carolina?s timeouts but the Deacons kept the game in play by settling for a field goal with a minute to go. North Carolina moved 33 yards before time ran out with officials later admitting one second should have been given to the Heels for a final play after picking up a late first down and getting out of bounds. It would have been a Hail Mary from there but the Tar Heels weren?t given a shot at a miracle finish as Wake Forest held on.

Washington State (-8) 31, Houston 24: Houston kept the prolific Washington State offense in check in the first half with a 14-7 lead at the break as those playing the mid-70s ?over? found trouble early with a scoreless first quarter. Washington State scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to get back in front and held Houston to a field goal early in the fourth quarter after a penalty handed off good field position. That four-point edge allowed Washington State to get past the favorite number with the following touchdown drive, leading 28-17 with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Washington State backers got a big break as Houston fumbled on its next offensive play but Washington State only got three points despite reaching 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard-line. A roughing the passer penalty got Houston?s final drive off to a promising start and with just over two minutes remaining a touchdown run from D?Eriq King put Houston within seven, where the final held for the narrow underdog cover.

Kansas State (+7) 31, Mississippi State 24: Kansas State was in control in the first quarter but a costly personal foul penalty allowed Mississippi State to extend a late drive and get to halftime down 17-14 instead of 17-7. The Bulldogs controlled the third quarter and took the lead with a touchdown, sitting even with the closing spread after an early fourth quarter field goal made it 24-17. The kickoff was returned 100 yards by Malik Knowles for a tying score for the Wildcats to shift the momentum back. The defenses held from there until a marginal punt put Kansas State in favorable field position and the Wildcats hit a pair of big passes on the way to the end zone for a seven-point advantage with about five minutes to go. Mississippi State would reach inside the Kansas State 30 on the next drive but went backwards and on 4th-and-16 wound up just a yard short.

Air Force (+3) 30, Colorado 23: The first meeting between these nearby schools featured some big swings as Colorado jumped out to a 10-0 lead and then trailed 20-10 by halftime. Neither team scored in the third quarter and Air Forced extended its lead with a field goal in the fourth while posting a big rushing edge as expected. Colorado would answer about four minutes later but the PAT was blocked as Air Force maintained a seven-point edge. Air Force had a pair of penalties on its next drive and had to punt quickly as Colorado had the ball back with a chance to tie. It took 13 plays but the Buffaloes were able get a touchdown in the final minute and the PAT was good to force overtime. Colorado didn?t keep the momentum long as in overtime Kadin Remsberg went 25 yards for the score on 1st down and Air Force then stopped the Buffaloes for the upset win.

Alabama (-27) 47, South Carolina 23: The box score reveals plenty of concerns for Alabama and South Carolina answered the early punches trailing only 14-10 after the first quarter. Alabama missed a field goal late in the second quarter after being handed good field position as the lead was just 24-10. South Carolina?s chance to truly get back in the game came up empty as in the final seconds before the break the Gamecocks couldn?t get into the end zone after reaching the 1-yard-line, eventually failing going for it on 4th-and-3. Alabama would pull away in the third quarter with a 21-point advantage, one touchdown short of covering the heavy road favorite spread. South Carolina would add a field goal in the fourth but Alabama quickly answered to lead by 24. A promising South Carolina drive ended in a Ryan Hilinski interception and despite limited rushing success the entire game, the Tide eventually worked its way into the end zone, converting on 4th-and-1. That appeared to be the spread-saving score for flocks of Tide backers but Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks had the last laugh, converting a 4th down with 15 seconds to go and hitting the end zone on the next play to narrowly take the underdog cover back.

Army (-14?) 31, Texas San Antonio 13: Army had a 17-7 lead through three quarters but extended the advantage to 24-7 early in the fourth. Following a nice kickoff return, the Roadrunners would add six but not the conversion to climb within the spread down 11. Army intended to run out the clock but they ran out of field and UTSA opted to use its timeouts. Army eventually rushed in from three yards out on 1st down with just over a minute remaining to get past the favorite spread despite being close to the range for taking a knee. UTSA was still a threat to steal the cover back late in the game reaching the Army 21 before an interception.

BYU (+5) 30, USC 27: These teams were knotted at 17-17 at halftime before the scoring went blank in the third quarter. BYU had a fumble and then failed to add points after a long drive trying to go for it on 4th-and-3 inside the 10. A 92-play USC touchdown drive followed to put the Trojans in front but BYU got back within the number with a field goal with about eight minutes remaining. BYU held the USC offense to a 3-and-out and the Cougars answered quickly with a three-play touchdown drive to take the lead. An 11-play USC drive followed but it stalled in deep field goal range. Chase McGrath would hit from 52 to tie the game with just under two minutes remaining. In overtime USC picked up a sack and forced BYU to kick a field goal but USC freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis was intercepted to end the game. The overtime points also were enough to push the total ?over? for many as BYU ?under? backers were burned for a second straight week by the extra-session, though this week?s total did climb to close at 57? at many outlets for mixed possible results.

Oklahoma State (-12?) 40, Tulsa 21: Tulsa played a great first half to lead 21-20 in a huge home game for the program. That score held in the first 10 minutes of the third quarter before Oklahoma State put two quick touchdowns together, the second coming on a 90-yard pass play as the Cowboys suddenly led by 12. Oklahoma State went for two and came up empty in a critical spread result play heading into the fourth quarter. Tulsa was stopped on downs twice in the fourth quarter including inside the Oklahoma State 10-yard-line. The Cowboys hadn?t been past the favorite spread in the entire game but on 4th-and-1 with just over two minutes remaining Chuba Hubbard rushed for 33 yards to put the Cowboys up 19.

Arkansas (-9?) 55, Colorado State 34: After losing to Colorado State last season, Arkansas was again caught in a tough battle with the Rams, this season at home. Arkansas led 27-24 at halftime and the game was tied 34-34 through three quarters. Big plays followed for Arkansas with a 62-yard pass play for a second touchdown in the fourth quarter that put Arkansas past the favorite spread and a fumble return touchdown led to a lopsided final margin that the Razorbacks didn?t necessarily deserve.

Louisville (-10?) 38, Western Kentucky 21: Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass was a late scratch for this game but Louisville took a commanding 31-7 lead at halftime, helped by a defensive score just before the break. Both teams scored in the third as the 24-point edge held but Western Kentucky found the end zone early in the fourth to sit down 17 and one score away from the underdog cover. The Hilltoppers recovered the onside kick but failed going for it on 4th-and-15 just past midfield. Louisville helped the cause for the Hilltoppers by also going for it on 4th down near midfield instead of punting as Western Kentucky got the ball back in great field position. On the next drive the Hilltoppers reached the Louisville 6-yard-line but couldn?t get in and they also failed near midfield again on a late drive as Louisville held on for the favorite cover in Nashville.

Iowa (-1?) 18, Iowa State 17: This anticipated rivalry game had a nearly three-hour delay early in the game with lightning before the contest lived up to its billing with an exciting finish. Iowa State took a 14-6 lead on just two plays out of halftime after a fumble led to Iowa getting three points just before the break. Iowa added three more in the third quarter and then struck early in the fourth quarter with a seven-play touchdown drive to take the lead. Up one Iowa would miss on a critical two-point conversion try on a spread that was steady at -1? with brief wavering up to -2 at times. Iowa State responded with a long drive but also settled for just a short field goal to lead by two halfway through the fourth quarter. Iowa again would lean on kicker Keith Duncan who a few minutes later struck from 39 to put the Hawkeyes back in front by one. Iowa State?s final drive was not without drama as Iowa declined an offensive penalty on 3rd-and-13 to force 4th down just outside of field goal range. On the first attempt of that play Iowa was called for clear pass interference but a second unseen flag whistled Iowa State for holding to offset the huge call that would have given the Cyclones a new set of downs. Iowa State was unable to convert the re-do but managed to force Iowa to a punt with the Hawkeyes surprisingly opting to pass on third down and getting out of bounds to keep well over a minute on the clock. On the punt disaster struck with a Cyclones blocker running into the returner with a slight push from an Iowa player on a short kick, ultimately contacting the ball and allowing Iowa to re-gain possession, where they took a knee to seal the narrow win but left the Cyclones with the cover.

Florida (-8?) 29, Kentucky 21: Kentucky snapped a long losing streak in this series last season but they didn?t seem ready to give the series right back to the favored Gators. Sawyer Smith led the Wildcats in his first start to a 14-7 halftime lead with the Gators having two turnovers and a missed field goal in the first half. Florida added a field goal in the third quarter after a long Kentucky drive ended in an interception but the Wildcats put the margin back to two scores quickly with a touchdown. Both teams were stopped on downs on the following possessions and with Kyle Trask replacing an injured Feleipe Franks the Gators had a quick touchdown drive in six plays to climb within five, missing on the two-point conversion. Later in the fourth Smith was intercepted near midfield but an unsportsmanlike penalty after the play pushed Florida into lesser field position. Florida was aided by two 15-yard penalties and managed to score in just four plays, taking a 22-21 lead after again failing going for the two-point conversion. The Wildcats were in position to answer but were seemingly more concerned with burning clock than getting the lead back and they wound up burned as Chance Poore narrowly missed a 35-yard kick for the lead. Looking for a first down to end the game Josh Hammond broke free and raced 76 yards for a touchdown in the final seconds and the extra-point put Florida up by eight to match the common spread on the game ahead of the weekend, though those that jumped on the Gators on Saturday mostly fell just short.

Washington (-22) 52, Hawai?i 20: Hopes for three Pac-12 wins for the Warriors went out the window quickly as Washington raced out to a 38-0 lead before Hawai?i managed a touchdown right before halftime. The Warriors didn?t fold in the second half however netting two touchdowns to climb within 18 and in position to cover the hefty underdog number. Washington would get back in front of the number early in the fourth and then added another score after an interception to seal the win and cover in a bounce back from last week?s loss to Cal.

San Diego State (-17) 31, New Mexico State 10: The Aggies made a late play to cover with 10 points in a five-minute span late in the third quarter after falling behind 24-0. San Diego State scored to get back past the number early in the fourth quarter and on the responding drive New Mexico State couldn?t convert after reaching the Aztecs 17-yard-line. New Mexico State also reached San Diego State territory late in the fourth but on 1st down a fumble handed the ball back to San Diego State.

Clemson (-27?) 41, Syracuse 6: Clemson led just 17-6 at halftime and was short of the favorite spread with a 27-6 edge through three quarters. Trevor Lawrence turned in a fourth-quarter touchdown drive as the Tigers led by 28 to slip by the spread and a late Syracuse threat was turned away in Clemson territory. For good measure Chez Mellusi broke a 57-yard rush in the final minute to pad the final score for the top ranked Tigers.

Virginia (-7) 31, Florida State 24: The Cavaliers were a -7?-point favorite much of the week but that didn?t seem relevant as Florida State led most of this game, up by seven through three quarter and well into the fourth quarter after answering an early fourth quarter tying score from Virginia. The Cavaliers looked set to tie the game with about six minutes to go with an efficient Bryce Perkins drive finding the end zone but a missed PAT left the Seminoles in front by one. The Virginia defense delivered the 3-and-out however and it took just five plays with the help of a penalty for Virginia to find the end zone again. Down five Perkins converted the two-point try and the Cavaliers led by seven to hit the number for some. James Blackman had a chance to deliver the tying score with a personal foul converting a late 4th down incompletion while pass interference added more yards for the Seminoles who received four 15-yard penalties on the drive. Florida State reached the Virginia 4-yard-line scrambling without timeouts and ran a final play that left Cam Akers just short of the end zone.

 

[Cnotes53]

College football Week 4: Early bettors pound Georgia odds for showdown vs. Notre Dame
Patrick Everson

A big clash of top-10 programs highlights Week 4 on the college football schedule. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBetUSA in New Jersey.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-12)

Georgia reached the College Football Playoff title game two years ago and is trying to burnish its credentials for this year?s CFP. The Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have played three lightweights so far, including in Week 3, when they thumped Arkansas State 55-0 as 32.5-point home favorites.

Notre Dame landed a spot in last season?s CFP semifinals, where it got completely outclassed by Clemson in a 30-3 loss. The Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) punished hapless New Mexico 66-14 as 34.5-point home faves Saturday.

Bulldogs backers didn?t wait long to get out of the gate, moving the line 2 points to -14 by Monday night.

?Huge early-season game with major playoff implications,? Chaprales said. ?A loss effectively kills Notre Dame?s chances, while Georgia would face a significant uphill climb. We took some Georgia action at the opener of 12, moved quickly to 12.5 and then straight through 13 to 13.5. Despite both teams being ranked in the top 10, this number ? along with the direction it?s moved ? underscores just how far apart the market thinks they are.?


No. 10 Michigan Wolverines at No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers (-3)

Michigan had a Week 3 bye and probably needed it after surviving a major home upset bid in Week 2. The Wolverines (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) went off as 21.5-point favorites against Army and never led until overtime, coming away with a 24-21 victory.

Wisconsin also comes into this noon ET Saturday clash well-rested off a Week 3 bye. The Badgers (2-0 SU and ATS) won their first two games by a combined 110-0, including a 61-0 Week 2 victory over Central Michigan laying 34 points at home.

?On one side, you have a public team in Michigan that hasn?t looked great ? 0-2 ATS, nearly lost outright at home to Army ? and on the other, a Wisconsin squad that?s tossed a pair of perfect games against minnows so far,? Chaprales said. ?Recreational bettors will nonetheless likely be interested in the Wolverines at plus money.?

Early bettors apparently like the host Badgers, though, with the line moving to -3.5, back to -3, then returning to -3.5.


No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)

Auburn got a resume-building win over Oregon in Week 1, then moved to 3-0 SU and ATS with wins over a couple of lesser lights. In Week 3, the Tigers crunched Kent State 55-16, cashing as hefty 36-point faves.

Texas A&M (2-1 SU) has also been good to bettors so far, cashing in all three of its outings, including a 24-10 Week 2 loss catching 16.5 points at No. 1 Clemson. The Aggies faced FCS foe Lamar in Week 3 and ran it up 62-3 giving 45 points at home.

The line ticked up a half-point to A&M -4 for this Southeastern Conference showdown, set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

?Key conference opener that could determine the direction each of these programs is headed,? Chaprales said. ?Auburn and true freshman quarterback Bo Nix passed their first test of season by sliding past Oregon, while A&M didn?t put up much resistance against Clemson a few weeks ago, needing a last-second touchdown to get the backdoor cover. Slight adjustment off the opener of 3.5, but minimal activity since.?


No. 11 Utah Utes at No. 24 Southern California Trojans (+3.5)

Southern Cal lost starting quarterback JT Daniels (ACL) in Week 1, and while true freshman Kedon Slovis looked superb in Week 2 against Stanford, he looked his age in Week 3. Slovis threw three interceptions at Brigham Young, and the Trojans (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell just short 30-27 laying 5 points.

Utah rolled over that same BYU team in Week 1, on the road no less, with a 30-12 victory as a 5-point chalk. The Utes (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) blanked Idaho State 31-0 giving 36.5 points at home Saturday.

This line bounced between Utah -3.5 and -4, sitting at the latter Monday night, for a Pac-12 After Dark clash at 9 p.m. ET Friday.

?This game was shaping up as Utah?s coming-out party, but USC?s loss to BYU put a damper on that,? Chaprales said. ?The Pac-12 South figures to be Utah?s to lose this season, but needless to say, a slip-up in a high-profile prime-time spot would be very detrimental.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 17, 2019
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEPT. 19

Matchup Skinny Edge

HOUSTON at TULANE ...Willie Fritz has covered 2 of last 3 in series, all as dog, won outright in 2017. Cougs just 5-12 as chalk away from home since late 2015. If Wave a dog note Fritz 4-0 in role at home since 2017.
Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.


FRIDAY, SEPT. 20

Matchup Skinny Edge

UTAH at SOUTHERN CAL...Utes 20-8-1 vs. line as visitor since 2014. Utes have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Trojans, though they haven?t won SU yet at Coliseum since entering Pac in 2011. Helton 9-21-1 last 31 on board, and Trojans 2-11 as dog since 2015.
Utah, based on team and series trends.

FIU at LA TECH...FIU has started slow this season (0-2) after Butch Davis 15-7 run vs. line entering 2019. FIU was 10-4 as dog entering this season but dropped Tulane opener. Skip just 3-8 vs. line at Ruston since 2017.
Slight to FIU, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at BOISE STATE...Force had covered five straight vs. Boise prior to last two seasons. Falcs 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Boise on 17-36 spread skid on blue carpet since late 2010.
Air Force, based on team and extended series trends.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

ULM at IOWA STATE...ULM was on 7-4 DD dog run into last season when dropping pair, but recovered at FSU on Sept. 7. Warhawks still just 5-11 last 16 on board. ISU 1-5 spread skid as home chalk, though is 5-0-1 vs. line last six years after facing Iowa.
Slight to Iowa State, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at OHIO STATE...RedHawks 1-10 vs. line last 11 outside of MAC. Buckeyes 4-1 vs. points last five non-Big Ten at big Horseshoe, 8-5 last 13 laying 20 or more.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at CLEMSON...49ers have covered 4 of last 5 as DD dog (1-0 for Will Healy). Dabo no covers last four vs. non-ACC at Death Valley.
Charlotte, based on team trends.

UCONN at INDIANA...Edsall 1-1 vs. line TY but just 1-5 last six as away dog. Hoosiers 1-3 last four laying DD vs. FBS-level foes though Tom Allen is above water at 8-6 as chalk since 2017.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

UCF at PITT...Narduzzi 5-2-1 vs. line at home since LY but still just 10-16-1 vs. spread at Heinz Field since arriving in 2015. Also just 2-8-1 as non-ACC host vs. line since 2015. UCF 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor (all visiting chalk), 18-8-1 vs. line since 2017.
UCF, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at OHIO...Cajuns 4-1-1 vs. spread as visitor for Billy Napier LY, also 4-1-1 as DD dog since 2018. Solich, however, 7-2 vs. line at home vs. FBS-level foes since 2017 and 5-2 vs. spread last seven vs. non-MAC FBS-level foes.
Ohio, based on Solich trends.

NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS...Huskers have won SU last three meetings and covered big last two. Frost covered last four on Big Ten road in 2018 and also covered last seven Big Ten games. Lovie only 4-10 as home dog with Illini and 6-15 last 21 vs. line in Big Ten.
Nebraska, based on team trends.

TEMPLE at BUFFALO...Buff 8-1-1 vs. line at home vs. BCS-level teams past two seasons. Leipold 17-8-1 vs. spread since 2017 vs. FBS-level foes. Rod Carey?s NIU teams, however, were 11-5 as road dog past five years.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MIAMI-FLA...McElwain 4-8 vs. spread last 12 vs. FBS-level teams (at Fla and CMU). Chips were 4-1 as DD dog LY for Bonamego but 0-1 for McElwain TY. Canes were only 5-7 as DD chalk for Richt past two seasons, though Diaz covered last week vs. BCU.
Slight to Miami, Fl., based on team trends.

OLD DOMINION at VIRGINIA...ODU 10-17-1 last 28 on board since late 2016 but Monarchs 3-1 last four as DD dog and covered Sept. 7 at VPI. Cavs 11-4-1 last 16 vs. line since LY and 6-1 last 7 vs. line non-ACC.
Virginia, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at UMASS...Walt Bell 0-3 vs. line with UMass, Minutemen now on 5-11 spread skid. Coastal has won and covered last two in series, and Chants 6-2-1 last nine vs. line away.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Cats have won last three in series, all as dog. If favored, note Dantonio just 3-10 as visiting chalk since 2015. Pat Fitz 14-5-1 as dog since 2016.
Northwestern, especially if dog, based on team and series trends.

TROY at AKRON...Troy was 6-2 as chalk away from home past two years. Trojans 12-5 vs. spread away since 2016. Zips 0-3 vs. line for Arth, 3-11-1 last 15 vs. points as host.
Troy, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at RUTGERS...BC 8-3 vs. spread last 11 as visitor. Rutgers had covered 6 in a row before Iowa loss, and has covered last four at New Brunswick. Ash 7-4 last 11 as home dog.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at SYRACUSE...WMU just 4-11 vs. spread last 15 vs. FBS-level foes. Also no covers last four as DD dog. Babers 7-2 last nine as chalk.
Syracuse based on team trends.

BALL STATE at NC STATE...Ball 3-9 last 12 as visiting dog and just 3-10 as DD dog since 2017 (though 1-0 TY). NCS 5-1 last six as home chalk vs. FBS-level foes (2-0 TY).
NC State, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN...Harbaugh just 1-7 vs. line last 8 away from Ann Arbor. Mich no covers last six since late 2018. If dog Harbaugh only 2-3 in role with Wolverines. Badgers however just 1-6 as Madison chalk LY, though did rout CMU on Sept. 7.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at COLORADO STATE...Rockets 9-3 as visiting chalk since 2015, though just 3-7 last ten vs. spread non-MAC. Rams have covered just 3 of last 11 in Fort Collins, and Bobo just 4-8 last 12 as dog after covering 6 of previous 7 in role.
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Lobos had failed to cover four straight in series prior to 42-35 win LY. UNM 0-8 as home chalk since late 2016, just 8-19 last 27 overall vs. spread. Ags however just 2-7 last nine as road dog.
Slight to New Mexico State, based on extended series trends.

WASHINGTON at BYU...Huskies just 3-7 last 10 as chalk away from Seattle. Also just 4-7 last 11 vs. line non-Pac 12. Sitake on 15-6 spread run since late 2017.
BYU, based on team trends.

COLORADO at ARIZONA STATE...Buffs entered 2018 on 4-11-1 spread run in Pac 12. Home team has won last four and covered last six in series.
Arizona State, based on series trends.

CAL at OLE MISS...Bears have covered last four as visiting dog and are 7-2 last nine getting points. Cal has covered last three as non-Pac visitor. Rebs on 1-8 spread skid since mid 2018 but did cover last game against FBS foe (vs. Ark). If Rebs a dog note 0-5 mark in role at home under Matt Luke.
Cal, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at FLORIDA...Vols actually 3-1 as road dog LY, though UT on 6-12 spread skid since late 2017 (6-9 Pruitt). Gators have long held upper hand in series and have covered 7 of last 9 meetings. Dan Mullen on 9-5 spread run since early 2018.
Florida, based on series trends.

GEORGIA STATE at TEXAS STATE...GS no covers last six (0-5-1) on Sun Belt road. Bobcats have covered last two in series though 0-3 vs. line for Spavital in early going.
Slight to Texas State, based on series trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at ALABAMA...Saban 4-11 vs. spread last 15 hosting non-SEC foes. Also 1-7 vs. line last 8 in final non-SEC game. USM 8-4 as dog for Jay Hopson since 2017.
Southern Miss, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Home side has won and covered last four in series. Stoops 14-8 as dog however since 2016. Moorhead 6-1 as Starkville chalk since LY.
Slight to Mississippi State, based on series home trends.

LSU at VANDERBILT...Derek Mason 1-6 as home dog since 2017, 5-12 overall last 17 as dog. LSU four straight covers vs. FBS-level foes since late 2018.
LSU, based on team trends.

APP STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...App State 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from Boone, 6-1 last seven vs. number non-Sun Belt.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.

AUBURN at TEXAS A&M...Malzahn 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 vs. line at College Station, and road team 6-0-1 vs. points last seven meetings. Jimbo however on 13-3 spread run with Ags and is 8-1 vs. spread at Kyle Field.
Slight to Auburn, based on series trends.

WYOMING at TULSA...Bohl is hot, has covered 7 of last 8 on board since late 2018. Bohl has also covered last four as a dog.
Wyoming, based on recent trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSOURI...Muschamp 12-3 last 15 as dog, is also 3-0 SU and vs. line against Barry Odom. Tigers 9-2 vs. line last 11 at home.
Slight to South Carolina, based on Muschamp trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS...Curious series trend with road team covering last five. Neal Brown was 6-2 as road chalk the past two years at Troy.
Slight to West Virginia, based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS...Tom Herman only 4-7 as home chalk since 2017 with Horns. Gundy has won last 4 SU vs. Texas and was 4-0 LY as a dog.
Oklahoma State, based on team and series trends.

BOWLING GREEN at KENT STATE...BGSU just 6-16 last 22 as dog (0-2 for Loeffler). Falcs 12-27 vs. points since 2016.
Slight to Kent State, based on BG negatives.

SMU at TCU...Metroplex war! Frogs have won SU last seven meetings and 2-0-1 vs. line last three. But Patterson just 4-15-1 vs. spread at Fort Worth since 2016. SMU 3-0 SU and vs. line in 2019
Slight to SMU, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at ARKANSAS...Ark just 5-9 as chalk since 2016 (3-3 for Chad Morris), also just 4-14 SU last 18 since late 2017. SJSU 8-3 last 11 as DD dog and has covered 5 of last 7 on road.
San Jose State, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at UAB...UAB 19-9-1 vs. spread since returning in 2017, 5-2 as DD chalk since LY. Blazers also 10-2-1 vs. spread at Legion Field since 2017.
UAB, based on team trends.

OREGON at STANFORD...Tree has won and covered last three in series, as home dog note Stanford 5-0 in role since 2009. Ducks 4-14-1 vs. spread last 18 away from Eugene.
Stanford, based on team and series trends.

BAYLOR at RICE...Old rivals from SWC days. Getting 20 or more, Bloomgren 6-2 vs. line since taking over Rice in 2017. Under 20 points, just 2-4. Rice just 2-7 vs. points last 9 as home dog. Matt Rhule has covered both as road chalk since taking over Bears in 2017, though only 2-4 laying DD.
Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

UTSA at NORTH TEXAS...Home team has covered last five in series. Roadrunners just 3-8 last 11 as DD chalk (0-2 TY). UNT however on 1-8 spread skid, 2-10 last 12.
Slight to North Texas, based on series home trends.

NOTRE DAME at GEORGIA...Brian Kelly 3-3 as dog since 2016, but 0-2 as DD dog since 2015. Georgia 22-9 vs. spread last 31 vs. FBS foes.
Georgia, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at FLORIDA STATE...Satterfield on 16-3-1 spread uptick at App State and ?Ville (2-0 with Cards). FSU 8-17-3 vs. spread since 2017, 4-10-1 for Taggart.
Louisville, based on team trends.

NEVADA at UTEP...Pack just 4-9 last 13 vs. line as visitor, no covers last three as road chalk. But Pack on mild 7-4 spread uptick. Miners 1-6 vs. spread at Sun Bowl for Dimel, 2-10 last 12 vs. spread as host.
Nevada, based on UTEP negatives.

UCLA at WASHINGTON STATE...Bruins now on 23-42 spread skid since 2014 (5-10 for Chip). Leach on 11-5 spread uptick.
Washington State, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Utags on 11-3-1 spread uptick (2-0 for Andersen), Rocky 1-7 vs. line last eight as host!
Utah State, based on team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

3 key Longhorns likely to play vs. Ok State
September 16, 2019
By The Associated Press

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) The Texas Longhorns got a boost Monday when coach Tom Herman said three injured starters will likely play this week in the Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State.

Senior wide receiver Collin Johnson (hamstring), senior center Zach Shackelford (foot) and sophomore linebacker Joseph Ossai (shoulder) missed all or part of last week's 48-13 win over Rice.

Johnson sat out the game but has seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown this season. Shackelford left in the second quarter after aggravating an foot injury from the preseason. He was on crutches after the game but Herman said he'll wear a brace and return to practice.

Ossai left the game with in the fourth quarter with a shoulder sprain and tests revealed no major damage. Ossai has been a top playmaker for No. 12 Texas (2-1) through the first three games with one sack and two interceptions.

The Longhorns will need Ossai against the Cowboys (3-0), who bring one of the nation's top offenses. Running back Chuba Hubbard leads the nation in rushing with 173.7 yards per game and wide receiver Tylan Wallace has six touchdowns.

Texas is still without starting safety B.J. Foster who injured a hamstring late in the Longhorns' loss to LSU.


*******************************


Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman sidelined
September 16, 2019
By The Associated Press

LUBBOCK, Texas (AP) Texas Tech sophomore quarterback Alan Bowman will miss games because of a shoulder injury.

Coach Matt Wells said Monday that Bowman ''will miss several weeks'' because of the injury sustained in a 28-14 loss at Arizona. The first-year Red Raiders coach didn't elaborate on the timing or provide more specifics about the injury to the Big 12's top passer.

As a true freshman last season, Bowman became the starter in the second game. He threw 2,638 yards with 17 touchdowns in eight games, missing four games over two different stints because of a collapsed lung.

Bowman didn't miss an offensive snap Saturday night, though he left the field for the locker room briefly after a linebacker drove his left shoulder into the turf after an incomplete pass that ended Texas Tech's first series after halftime. Bowman copleted 30 of 55 passes for 307 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

Wells indicated after the game that Bowman was in pain.

Bowman leads the Big 12 this season with 1,020 yards passing (340 per game), and is the national leader with 33.7 completions per game.

The Red Raiders have an open date before playing at fifth-ranked Oklahoma on Sept. 28.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack

NFL trends for Week 3:

? Falcons are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs AFC opponents.

? Eagles covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite.

? Vikings are 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.

? Denver is 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.

? Patriots covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite.

? Raiders covered their last six road openers.

Tweet of the Day
?Eli and I spoke this morning. I told him that we are making a change and going with Daniel as the starter. I also talked to Daniel. Eli was obviously disappointed, as you would expect, but he said he would be what he has always been, a good teammate, and continue to prepare to help this team win games???
Giants? coach Pat Shurmur

Wednesday?s quiz
Who was the Giants? head coach before Pat Shurmur?

Tuesday?s quiz
Jeff Fisher coached the Tennessee Titans in their only Super Bowl appearance.

Monday?s quiz
Chris Chandler was the Atlanta Falcons? QB the first time they played in a Super Bowl, when they lost to Denver

***************************

Wednesday?s List of 13: Mid-week musings??

13) NFL trends; over last 20 years, 11 NFL teams started their season 0-2, with both losses at home; those teams went 4-6-1 vs spread in their Week 3 road game.

This week, Jets, Panthers, Dolphins fit the bill.

12) Since 2005, NFL Week 3 home teams who played their first two games on the road are 11-28-2 vs spread; 6-22-2 when favored, 5-6 as an underdog.

49ers, Colts, Bills, Jets fit the bill this week.

11) Daniel Jones is starting at QB for the Giants Sunday in Tampa; last time Eli Manning got benched, that coach got fired a few weeks later, and Eli started again. We?ll see how this goes, but Jones doesn?t play defense, which is the Giants? biggest problem.

10) Submitted for your perusal, with no comment:
Jim Plunkett: 72-72 regular season, 8-2 playoffs, two Super Bowls.
Eli Manning: 116-116 regular season, 8-4 playoffs, two Super Bowls.

9) Steelers signed QB Paxton Lynch to their practice squad; he figures to be Mason Rudolph?s backup sooner than later.

8) NFC West teams are 7-1 against the spread so far this season.

7) MAC teams are 4-12 ATS as a road underdog outside their conference.

6) Nation-wide, home underdogs are 11-18 ATS in non-conference college games.

5) Pretty cool with Giants? OF Mike Yastrzemski in Boston this week, playing on the same field where his Hall of Fame grandfather played from 1961-83.

Carl Yastrzemski hit 452 homers playing half his games in a ballpark not built for lefty hitters; he had an .841 career OPS.

Mike Yastrzemski was traded from the sadsack Orioles to San Francisco on March 23; he is hitting .263 with 19 homers in a breakout rookie season- this should be a fun week for him.

4) Cardinals beat Washington 4-2 Monday night, but St Louis pitchers struck out only one batter the whole game, which in this day and age is pretty rare.

3) Sean Payton agreed to a 5-year contract extension that takes him through 2024, which would be his 19th season coaching the Saints.

2) New England is -22.5 against the Jets; how many points would you have to get before you would take the Jets?

Dolphins are +21 at Dallas; when was last time two NFL teams got 20+ points in the same week?

1) Big X teams are 13-4 ATS out of conference this season, 9-2 as a favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 4 - Upset Alerts
September 18, 2019
By Matt Blunt

No complaints about bad numbers in terms of last week's plays, as they were more about backing bad teams that simply got overwhelmed by superior talent. Indiana and New Mexico just couldn't keep Ohio State and Notre Dame off the scoreboard to fall well short of even sniffing a cover as big underdogs.

The news wasn't all bad though as Air Force managed to take full advantage of the brutal situational spot Colorado found themselves in. The Falcons nearly coughed up the game (and cover) after having lead for the bulk of that contest, but they managed to hold on long enough to get the outright win in OT, to have the selections avoid it's second consecutive 0-3 ATS week.

A 1-2 ATS record last week with the lone cover winning outright as well is the step in the right direction, and while I may have wasted most of my luck with the huge 20+ underdogs last year, I'm confident that things will turn around here soon for all the underdogs in this weekly piece.

So while it's highly understandable that backing these plays this week may be tough to do given recent results, that narrative actually ties in quite well with the specific teams involved in this week's plays. We've got a few teams that the general betting market wants little to do with after what they've seen from them in the first few weeks of the season. There has generally been nothing but criticism, ridicule and laughter for how some of these teams have performed so far this year, and in terms of the perception vs reality notion, that actually does present some inherent value in their point spreads. Now it's just up to these teams (and myself with the selections) to get the job done.

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to + 9 range
YTD: 1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS

Michigan (+3.5) vs Wisconsin

Back in the summer when I penned this piece for the site, I did so always having this game in mind and circled on the calendar for a spot to back the Wolverines. Even with Michigan narrowly beating Army last time out, and Jim Harbaugh's team on a 0-6 ATS run dating back to the end of last year, I think this is just the spot, opponent, and time for Michigan to get their 2019 season rolling on the right foot.

The betting market has been quick to get on Harbaugh and the Wolverines this season, talking about how it's the same old, outdated Harbaugh offense that's holding the Wolverines from reaching their full potential yet again this year, and it seems inevitable to most that Michigan will find new and interesting ways to blow it in the biggest games of the year like they have in the past. Going up against a Wisconsin team that's yet to allow a single point this season is a situation that looks like a great spot to further those beliefs as Michigan is a team that very little want anything to do with right now, other then to fade them. Given how well the Badgers have looked so far, it's no surprise that the bulk of the action (70%+) has already come Wisconsin's way.

But being 'tested' early on in a season is something I prefer to look at as a positive for a team like Michigan, because it gets those competitive juices flowing, allows them to know how they'll react when facing adversity, and the more they come out on the positive end of those contests ? like they did vs Army ? the confidence only grows.

Conversely, Wisconsin has gone up against two cupcakes so far and have yet to had their feet to the fire. There is plenty of confidence having outscored opponents 110-0 through two games, but the Badgers have yet to see any sort of adversity and therefore, we've yet to see how they react when they do so. Sure, they could pass that first test with flying colors, but I'm not sure that will be the case against a team that's as highly ranked or as talented as the Wolverines are. You'd always prefer some early season struggles to come up against a much lesser team where the likelihood of overcoming it is much greater ? say like a team like Army, or Illinois, Indiana etc ? and I'm not sure this Wisconsin team has what it takes to take the heat when it comes down to it. Yes, Wisconsin could have 'revenge' on their mind after last year's 38-13 loss to Harbaugh's squad, but that score was telling the other way as well in that Harbaugh and Michigan understand how to move the ball against a tough defense like Wisconsin's and will be able to do so again.

The ?Redemption Tour? for Michigan might have ended in disappointment for the Wolverines last year with their performance against the Buckeyes at the end of the campaign, but it will be that take no prisoners attitude that serves Michigan well in this game with many doubters lurking out there. With the market's perception already highly negative on Harbaugh yet again, he and his team knows that there aren't many greater feelings then proving the majority wrong, and I expect them to do exactly that in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday.

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Tennessee (+14) vs Florida

Speaking of teams that continually get ridiculed and laughed at in the betting market, we've got the Tennessee Volunteers catching double-digits in the Swamp this weekend. It's definitely hard to defend what we've seen from the Volunteers so far in 2019 having dropped game easily winnable games to Georgia State and BYU, as this is a program that not only can't shake the choke job persona in the market, but sees that notion grow seemingly every week.

Yet, sometimes all it takes for a program in the midst of getting crapped on is to go out and beat up on a little brother so to speak. Tennessee did that last week with a 45-0 win (ATS cover as well) vs Chattanooga, and any internal doubts/issues with confidence inside that locker room had to get a boost. There is no redoing those losses to Georgia State and BYU, especially how they happened, but with those still so fresh in the minds of many bettors, the general market wants absolutely nothing to do with the Volunteers. But any athlete will tell you, being counted out and endlessly ridiculed and doubted, only makes the redemption that much sweeter when it comes around.

On the other side of the coin, we've got a Gators team who is turning to QB Kyle Trask this week after Feleipe Franks went down for the year. Bettors saw Trask step in and lead the Gators to a comeback against Kentucky last week, so there is plenty of positive reinforcement there to further get units down against Tennessee in this game. Yet, it's still Trask's first career collegiate start under center, and that has to bring some concerns in its own right, never mind the fact that he's expected to lead his team to a two-TD victory.

Perception and reality just don't appear to be close to meeting in my eyes for this game, and that's probably why this point spread is a little higher then it should be in my view. Yes, we've seen Trask perform well in limited action this year, but what did he have to lose in that scenario? Had he not gone out and led the Gators to a comeback last week it would have essentially been a free pass for him given the situation he stepped into, and leading the comeback like he did only inflated the general perception about his talent.

But the fact that he had nothing to lose in terms of perception from stepping into that scenario allowed him to play free and easy on those final drives, and relaxed athletes with nothing to lose tend to always perform at their best. This week, the pressure amps up quite a bit as there is much more on his shoulders in terms of potentially suffering a loss here, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Gators react.

Besides, wouldn't it be a complete Tennessee thing to do to lose their first two games of the year in the fashion that they did, and then turn around and go into the Swamp and get an outright upset victory? I'm not sure that will end up being the case, but the Volunteers will put their best foot forward in trying to do so, and keep this game much closer then a number like this suggests.

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS

Miami OH (+39) at Ohio State

As has been the case with my handicapping in other sports this year, there are plenty of times where plays of mine end up being losses as they come a game/week too early. Fading Ohio State on the road last week in their Big 10 opener proved to be a wrong cap by far, but I'm hoping that I was just a week too early on fading this Buckeyes team that's still getting talked up too much in my opinion this year.

This also isn't the greatest spot for the Buckeyes to cover a huge number like this, facing a weak non-conference foe at home, sandwiched between two Big 10 road tilts. Indiana proved to be no match for the Buckeyes, but a trip to Nebraska next week should be much tougher. This week's game against the Redhawks has all the makings of a ?get in, get out? type game for Ohio State, as they'll establish a comfortable lead early and then sit on the ball after that. There is no need to send a message to say, the rest of the Big 10, like they did last week against Indiana, so they aren't likely to keep their foot on the gas late like they did last week, and to win, stay healthy, and give some 2nd and 3rd stringers meaningful reps has to be the goal.

Finally, Ohio State comes into this game with a 2-0 ATS record, and during the regular season, the Buckeyes have only covered the number three straight times on one occasion dating back to October 2016. Put it all together and I believe we see this Miami (Ohio) team that's already 1-0 ATS this year as a 20+ underdog get the ATS cash again.

 

[Cnotes53]

Houston at Tulane
September 17, 2019
By Joe Nelson

Thursday night college football returns with an American Athletic Conference West division battle between Houston and Tulane. Houston has won 13 of the last 15 meetings but Tulane has taken two of the past five including the last home meeting two seasons ago. Take a look at this week?s ESPN contest to kick off the college football weekend.

Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave

Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: Thursday, Sept. 19, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Tulane -4?, Over/Under 55?
Last Meeting: 2018, at Houston (-7?) 48, Tulane 17

Despite contrasting levels of success in over the past decade, right now Houston is just 1-2 while Tulane heads into this contest at 2-1 including a pair of home wins. This will be the conference opener for both teams and the start of the AAC West race where both squads will be chasing the heavy favorite Memphis.

Houston has faced a pair of top 25 squads losing 49-31 in the season opener at Oklahoma while last Friday, the Cougars narrowly earned a cover with a 31-24 defeat against Washington State across town at NRG Stadium. The only win for Houston came against FCS Prairie View with a 37-17 result.

Tulane dominated a prime time home opener against Florida International in late August and played competitively in a 24-6 loss at Auburn in Week 2 before blowing out FCS Montana State last week 58-6 at home with a 540-182 edge in yardage.

Houston quarterback D?Eriq King accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and he already has nine in three games to lead the Cougars. Houston is in a transition season with Dana Holgorsen taking over the program after modest success over eight seasons at West Virginia. Holgorsen was an assistant at Houston for two years in 2008 and 2009 and surprised many by jumping down to the smaller conference program after Major Applewhite was let go after two seasons. Houston gave Holgorsen a five-year deal worth $20 million as he is by a wide margin the highest paid Group of 5 head coach in the nation.

Applewhite and Tony Levine have both been let go by Houston following 8-5 seasons in the last decade as the bar is high for the Cougars who hope Holgorsen can be a long term winner that stays put after losing Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and Tom Herman to higher profile major conference positions.

Houston draws a difficult schedule in AAC play as no game can be taken for granted and ultimately the Cougars will be playing four of the first five games away from its home stadium as the Cougars are on the road again next week with a non-conference game at North Texas. Houston has to play UCF and Cincinnati from the AAC East as continuing a run of six straight bowl bids can?t be assumed and this week?s game could wind up as a critical swing game in that pursuit for a pair of teams that are expected to finish above the bowl cut-line but not by a wide margin.

Tulane has improved in win count in three straight seasons under Willie Fritz, technically finishing in a tie for 1st in the AAC West last season with Houston and Memphis at 5-3, with Memphis getting to play in the AAC Championship. Improving in win count again this season won?t be easy with UCF and Temple drawn from the East plus a challenging non-conference game at Army still ahead following a bye next weekend. The AAC West has had three different championship game representatives over the four seasons of its existence with Houston winning the inaugural AAC title game in 2015.

Fritz led the Wave to a bowl win last season for the first time for the program since 2002 and Tulane is looking to put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1997 and 1998 when Tommy Bowden led the Wave to a 12-0 season before heading to Clemson. Tulane hasn?t had consecutive bowl seasons since 1979 and 1980 as Fritz has been a great hire and now owns a 172-91 career record counting his lower level success at Central Missouri and Sam Houston State before he went 17-7 at Georgia Southern over two years.

Tulane has rushed for 768 yards in three games posting 5.9 yards per rush with Justin McMillan the leading rusher from the quarterback position. McMillan is a senior that played sparingly until he unseated Jonathan Banks midway through last season. McMillan posted similar numbers to Banks, but benefitted from a lighter late season schedule and keyed several narrow wins down the stretch with Tulane beating Tulsa, South Florida, East Carolina and Navy to win four of the final five before also winning the Cure Bowl against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Houston started last season 7-1 and the home win over Tulane in mid-November was the only win for the Cougars the rest of the way. The Cougars played without King in the final two games after he was injured against the Green Wave and behind backup Clayton Tune, the Cougars were blown out against Memphis in the season finale and in the bowl game vs. Army by a combined score of 122-45, prompting Applewhite?s release.

In September it is always worth checking the weather in the south and southeast and the early Thursday forecast does call for some wind upwards of 15 MPH with warm humid temperatures and a 20 percent chance of a shower or stray thunderstorm.

Last season:
The one late season loss for Tulane last year came in this matchup, also on a Thursday night. Houston dominated with a 31-9 edge by halftime and a 41-9 lead through three quarters in a contest where Tulane had four turnovers. The contest was memorable more for a sideline confrontation between then Houston head coach Major Applewhite and star defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who wasn?t even suited up to play in the game. D?Eriq King was injured in the game as Houston leaned on running back Patrick Carr and took advantage of Tulane mistakes including two interceptions from Justin McMillan.

Historical Trends:
Houston is on a 13-2 S/U and 12-3 ATS run in this series since 2003, but Tulane won the last home meeting two years ago, 20-17 as a nine-point underdog. Since 2013, Houston is on a 10-11 S/U and 17-4 ATS run as an underdog, which they haven?t been vs. Tulane since 2003. Since 2016 under Willie Fritz, Tulane is 12-8 S/U and 12-7-1 ATS in home games including going 10-4 ATS since the start of the 2017 season.

 

[Udog]

By: Monty Andrews



TROUBLE FOR SPARTANS?

The Michigan State Spartans will have to do without one of their standout offensive linemen until November. Kevin Jarvis suffered a knee injury in last week's stunning loss to Arizona State and is expected to be out for six or seven weeks, according to Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio.

Jarvis and the rest of the Spartans' offensive line had their hands full in last week's loss, with Michigan State producing just 3.2 yards per carry while having five passes broken up and allowing a sack. Tyler Higby will take over for Jarvis at left tackle going into this weekend's encounter with host Northwestern.

And while the Wildcats were torched 30-14 by UNLV last time out, they ranked 26th in run defense a season ago and held the Spartans to just 19 points in last year's meeting at Spartan Stadium. We like MSU to come in below its team total of 24.5.


NOT SO FAST!

Don't get too excited, Dillon Gabriel fans. Central Florida head coach Josh Huepel isn't ready to name the sensational freshman as the starting quarterback for Saturday's visit to Pittsburgh. This despite Gabriel going off in last week's statement victory over visiting Stanford, throwing for 347 yards and four touchdowns.

Gabriel has the hot hand ahead of season-opening No. 1 Brandon Wimbush and the recently-returned-from-injury Darriel Mack, both of whom were expected to see action against the Cardinal. In the end, Wimbush saw just one snap while Mack didn't play.

It would be foolhardy for UCF to pivot away from Gabriel, whose advanced level of play should allow the Knights to dominate the time of possession. That, combined with Pitt's ugly offensive numbers (14.7 PPG, 2.8 YPC), make UCF a great pick ATS.


DOWN FOR THE COUNT

Collin Hill has suffered yet another devastating knee injury. The Colorado State quarterback suffered a torn left ACL in last week's loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks and will miss the remainder of the season.

That could be it for Hill's football career, as this is the third time he has torn the ACL in his left knee. Hill was enjoying a terrific season for the Rams, having completed better than two-thirds of his pass attempts for 840 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Patrick O'Brien will take over the starting role beginning with Saturday's game against visiting Toledo.

This line has shifted three points in the Rockets? favor since opening at -6.5, and that might be too much movement. O'Brien was impressive in relief last time out, while CSU went 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of 7-plus points in 2018. We like the home side here.


A GREAT UNKNOWN

Saturday's tall task might have become a whole lot tougher for the Auburn Tigers as they prepare to open their SEC schedule against No. 17 Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

Senior defensive tackle Derrick Brown is considered questionable for the game after suffering an upper-body injury early in last week's victory over Kent State. Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn considers Brown "day-to-day". The projected first-round pick in next year's NFL draft has seven tackles (one for loss) in three games, and has 22.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in his three-plus years at Auburn.

Brown's absence would be a devastating one for the Tigers' defense ? and a major boost to a Texas A&M rush attack averaging a robust 5.4 yards per carry. Look to either the Aggies ATS or the Over on their team total if Brown is ruled out.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack

More NFL trends for Week 3:

? Bengals covered eight of last ten as a road underdog.

? Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 non-division games.

? New England covered 13 of last 19 games vs AFC East foes.

? Colts covered one of their last six road openers.

? Miami covered twice in last eight games vs NFC teams.

? Atlanta covered three of last 13 non-divisional games.

Tweet of the Day
?I mean, this is something that?s serious. If his spleen bursts, then we have a problem.?
Jets? coach Adam Gase on Sam Darnold?s mononucleosis

Thursday?s quiz
Where did Dan Marino play his college football?

Wednesday?s quiz
Ben McAdoo was the Giants? head coach before Pat Shurmur.

Tuesday?s quiz
Jeff Fisher coached the Tennessee Titans in their only Super Bowl appearance.

*************************

Thursday?s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud??

13) From Liam Stack (this story made me laugh):
A New Zealand man brought an emotional support clown to a meeting where he knew he?d be fired. The clown blew up balloons and folded them into a series of animals throughout the meeting, then mimed crying when the man was handed a pink slip.

Didn?t help; the guy still lost his job.

12) From Russell Baxter: 72 of the 106 Super Bowl teams started that season 2-0; only four of them started 0-2.

11) Atlanta Falcons play their first nine games this year in domes; their first of only three outdoor games is Week 11 (Nov 17) at Carolina.

10) From Ralph Michaels: Since 2016, under is 18-9 in college football games that had a total of 40 or less points.

9) Colts, Eagles and Packers are pretty banged up; they all scrapped their traditional Wednesday practices this week, and had walk-throughs instead.

8) David Fales would appear to be the Jets? new backup QB; he?s thrown 48 passes in three NFL games, two for Miami in 2017 (with Adam Gase as coach) and one for Chicago in 2016. Fales played college ball at San Jose State.

7) Football stuff:
? Chiefs? LT Eric Fisher is having core muscle surgery, is out this week.

6) Last time there was a week of NFL games where no team scored 30+ points was Week 9 in 1995, so long ago that the Houston Oilers won a game that week.

5) Pirates? closer Felipe Vazquez was arrested in Pittsburgh Tuesday on charges of soliciting a child, computer pornography and providing obscene material to minors.

4) Giancarlo Stanton?s over/under home run total for this year was 41.5; wth 11 days left in this season, he has one homer and seven RBI.

3) A?s 1, Royals 0 (11)? Mark Canha got the walk-off hit on Mark Canha T-shirt Day and Chad Pinder made a great catch in left field to save two runs as Oakland won its 92nd game this year.

2) Four teams that got to the Super Bowl after starting season 0-2:
? 1993? Cowboys (won Super Bowl)
? 1996? Patriots (lost)
? 2001? Patriots (won)
? 2007? Giants (won)

1) From Annie Karni of the New York Times:

?Sean Spicer got a minimum of $125,000 to be on Dancing With the Stars, and the pay goes up with every week he stays on.?

We live in a very strange world.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Ten Report - Week 4
September 18, 2019
By ASA

2019 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Indiana 2-1 0-1 1-2 1-2
Iowa 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2
Maryland 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1
Michigan 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1
Michigan State 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Minnesota 3-0 0-0 0-2-1 2-1
Nebraska 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-2
Northwestern 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2
Ohio State 3-0 0-0 2-1 1-1-1
Penn State 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1
Purdue 1-2 0-0 1-2 2-1
Rutgers 1-1 0-1 1-1 1-1
Wisconsin 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Week 4 Big Ten Matchups
Connecticut at Indiana (-27.5, Total 56.5)
Michigan State (-9.5, Total 38.5) at Northwestern
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3.5, Total 44)
Boston College (-8.5, Total 57.5) at Rutgers
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-39, Total 60.5)
Nebraska (-13.5, Total 62.5) at Illinois

MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Badgers have been simply dominant in their first 2 games. After topping Central Michigan 61-0 two weeks ago, they have outscored their first 2 opponents 110-0! Believe it or not, Wisconsin dominated the game even more than the 61 point margin might indicate. The final stats were astounding ? Wisconsin 37 first downs / CMU 3 first downs, Wisconsin 599 total yards / CMU 58 total yards, Wisconsin 400 yards passing (yes passing!) / CMU 43 yards passing. We all know the Badgers can run the ball as well as anyone in the country, on Saturday QB Jack Coan proved he might be able to provide a threat through the air. He was 26 of 33 for 363 yards and 3 TD?s. If he can provide anywhere near that type of production moving forward this team will be extremely tough to beat. We mentioned in our last report we had been hearing that this Wisconsin defense could be special. Well they?ve allowed a total of 215 yards on 100 plays in their two games this season. They were dealt a bit of a blow when starting free safety Scott Nelson was ruled out for the remainder of the season with a leg injury. The Badgers will also be without starting nose guard Williams leaving true freshman Benton as the starter.

The Wolverines also come in 2-0 but their new offense is struggling a bit. New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has implemented an up tempo offense and while Michigan has increased the number of plays they run per game, their efficiency hasn?t been great. Through two games they are averaging 77 plays per game but just 5.1 yards per play which is down from 6.1 YPP last season. Fumbles have been a huge problem thus far for Michigan as they already have lost 5 through two games after losing just 3 the entire season last year. The Wolverines are also coming off a bye and were nearly upset as a 21 point favorite at home vs Army two weeks ago. Michigan?s only lead of the game was 24-21 in the 2nd overtime which was also the final score. The offense could be bolstered by a few key players who are returning this weekend. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is probably their most dangerous weapon, and All Big Ten LT Jon Runyan are both scheduled to return from injury. Defensive coordinator Don Brown also stated this week that Michigan can finally play their ?base? defense on Saturday after facing a Middle Tennessee State team that plays 1 RB, no TE?s and 4 wideouts for much of the game and then facing Army?s option attack in their 2nd game.

This is a very interesting line with Wisconsin opening -3 on Sunday. The early line on this game way back in late spring was released at Michigan -6 so a 9-point swing based on the results of the first two games. The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright. Since 2000, Wisconsin is 9-2-1 ATS vs the Wolverines. Michigan is 8-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2008.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Michigan State blew numerous chances to pick up a big win at home last Saturday vs Arizona State. They outgained ASU by nearly 200 yards in the 10-7 loss. In the first half alone, the Spartans pushed inside Arizona State territory on 4 of their 5 possessions and came away with not a single point trailing 3-0 at half. For the game, MSU crossed the 50-yard line on 8 of their 10 possessions and scored 7 total points. Normally reliable place kicker Matt Coghlin, who had made 40 of his 48 career FG attempts entering the game, missed 3 field goals in this one including the potential game tying kick as time expired. The defense continued to play very well holding the Sun Devils to only 216 yards on 4.1 yards per play. ASU had just 140 total yards leading into their final possession, a 75 yard drive which ended in the game winning TD with 50 seconds remaining. The move in this game was off as the bettors pounded MSU as the line opened Spartans -12 and pushed all the way up to -15.5 at some spots by game time.

After losing at Stanford in their season opener, Northwestern had a week off before hosting UNLV as a 19 point favorite last Saturday. The Cats won 30-14 but failed to get the cover for the 2nd time this season (0-2 ATS). The offense is probably going to be a work in progress most of the season. They looked terrible at Stanford playing a full 53 minutes before scoring their first point. Last week vs UNLV, it took them just 3 minutes to score their first TD and they put up points on 4 of their 5 first half possessions. Three of those four scores were field goals as they took a 16-14 lead into the break. The Wildcats leaned heavily on the run with 50 attempts to just 25 pass attempts. Freshman RB Drake Anderson was the work horse carrying the ball 26 times for 141 yards. He is the son of Northwestern?s all time leading rusher Damien Anderson. He stepped in for starting RB Bowser who remains questionable for Saturday?s game. Clemson QB transfer, Hunter Johnson, continues to struggle completing just 48% of his passes for 165 yards. On the season he is now completing just 43% of his passes with 1 TD and 3 interceptions. The defense locked down after halftime holding the Rebel scoreless on 130 yards.

This line opened with MSU at a TD favorite and move to -9 by Monday morning. Northwestern has had MSU?s number as of late beating the Spartans outright 4 of the last 5 meetings, all as an underdog. Since 2002, MSU has been favored vs Northwestern 13 consecutive games ? they are 4-9 ATS / 7-6 SU in those games.

CONNECTICUT at INDIANA (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hoosiers came into last week?s home game vs Ohio State with the thought they could hang with the Buckeyes. That hope was thrown out the window in a hurry in OSU?s 51-10 dominating win. The story of this game was simply the Buckeyes domination on the ground. They put up 306 yards on 42 carries for almost 8 YPC. The Hoosiers running game continued to be a major issue as they were only able to muster 42 yards on 31 carries. It?s been a problem all year as IU entered Saturday?s game ranked 94th nationally in rushing and after their OSU performance they dropped to 117th (out of 130 teams). The Hoosiers are averaging only 101 YPG on the ground and only 3.1 YPC. Not being able to run on a stout OSU defense is one thing but struggling a week earlier vs an FCS opponent (114 rushing yards vs Eastern Illinois) is a red flag. Back up QB Peyton Ramsey (last year?s starter) was forced into action when starter Michael Penix was declared unavailable due to an injury. Ramsey was on the run all afternoon with pressure from the Buckeye defensive front. Ramsey was sacked 5 times and the Buckeyes had an impressive 12 tackles for loss. He could be back under center this Saturday as Penix remains questionable for UConn game. The loss dropped Indiana to just 2-33-1 their last 36 games vs the Buckeyes.

This week could be a tough spot mentally for Indiana. After getting mauled by OSU, they move back to a non-conference game hosting a bad UConn team with a big game at Michigan State on deck. The Huskies are 1-1 on the season and gave another Big Ten program, Illinois, a run for their money two weeks ago before losing 31-23 in Hartford. UConn had a bye last week giving them a potential advantage vs an Indiana team coming off a physical Big Ten battle. The Huskies, however, have the same problem as IU in that they cannot run the ball. They are averaging just 2.7 YPC in their two games ranking them 121st nationally in that category. UConn has also lost 18 consecutive games vs FBS opponents dating back to the 2017 season! This is a rare spot for IU as they have been a favorite of -27 or more only FOUR times since 1980 (1-3 ATS).

BOSTON COLLEGE at RUTGERS (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Rutgers is 1-1 on the season and they come into this home game off a bye week. In week one they gave us a reason to believe they might be quite a bit better than last season when they finished the year with a 1-11 record. The Knights dominated a poor UMass team in that week one match up easily covering the 17 point number with a 48-21 blowout win. The offense put up 554 total yards which was a huge achievement for a team that averaged only 266 YPG last year (128th nationally). Well all of that optimism came crashing down in their week two game at Iowa. After breaking out offensively vs UMass, the Scarlet Knights were held scoreless on 125 TOTAL yards vs Iowa in a 30-0 loss. New starting QB McLane Carter, a Texas Tech transfer, threw for 340 yards and 2 TD?s vs UMass only to follow that up with just 28 yards passing on a mere 6 completions vs the Hawkeyes. The Iowa loss dropped Rutgers record vs Power 5 teams to an embarrassing 3-28 the last 3+ seasons under head coach Chris Ash.

On Saturday they host a BC team that comes in reeling off an unthinkable 48-24 home loss vs Kansas, a team that had lost 48 straight road games vs FBS opponents! The Eagles entered the game as 18-point favorites so they failed to cover the spread by an incredible 42 points. BC was 2-0 entering that game having beaten Virginia Tech & Richmond, both at home. This will be the Eagles first road game of the season. These two schools are just 250 miles apart and used to face each other every year as members of the Big East. However, with Rutgers moving to the Big Ten and BC to the ACC, this will be their first meeting since 2004. Since 2004, BC has been a road favorite of more than a TD just 10 times. They are 3-7 ATS in those games.

MIAMI (OHIO) at OHIO STATE (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
OSU continued to roll last week destroying Indiana on the road 51-10. The Buckeyes (-17) dominated the stat sheet as they were +263 yards and +15 first downs. In their 3 games this season vs Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, and Indiana, the Bucks have scored 138 points while allowing just 31. In those 3 wins OSU is +38 first downs and +739 total yards. Forget about the offense. We knew they?d be very good. It?s the defense that has us very impressed. They are completely shutting down the run this year allowing 57 YPG and 1.7 YPC. The defense as a whole ranks 9th nationally allowing only 3.85 yards per play. That?s a huge jump from last year when the defense was this team?s weak spot allowing 400 YPG which ranked them 68th nationally. If this team can continue to play shut down defense, they will be nearly impossible to beat.

This week they have been set as a massive 39-point favorite vs in-state MAC team Miami (Oh). The Redhawks are 1-2 with their lone win coming against FCS Tennessee Tech. In their two games vs FBS opponents (Iowa & Cincinnati) Miami has been outscored 73-27 and outgained by 433 yards. These two already have one common opponent in the Cincinnati Bearcats. OSU beat Cincy 42-0 outgaining them 235 yards on 7 YPP while holding Cincy to 4.7 YPP. The Redhawks lost to Cincinnati last week 35-13, they were outgained by 213 yards and put up just 3.5 YPP while allowing 5.4 YPP. The Redhawks do catch Ohio State in a sandwich spot with the Buckeyes coming off their Big Ten opener at Indiana and a game at Nebraska on deck. This is the first meeting since 2012 when OSU beat Miami 56-10 at the Shoe. Since 1980 the Buckeyes have been favored by more than 5 TD?s 23 times. They are a solid 14-9 ATS (61%) in those games. Miami Oh has been a dog of more than +35 only TWICE in the last 40 years (1-1 ATS)!

NEBRASKA at ILLINOIS (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)
It was tough to predict how the Huskers might respond after blowing a 17-0 lead at Colorado in a heart wrenching OT loss the previous Saturday. They bounced back in a big way destroying a solid Northern Illinois team 44-8. The offense hadn?t performed up to head coach Scott Frost?s standards in either of their previous 2 games but rolled up 525 yards in this one on 65 offensive snaps. Frost mentioned this week that while he was pleased, he thinks they can still play faster on offense. Big plays were the story for the Husker offense in this one as they had 11 plays of 17 yards or more including 2 plays of 60+ yards. Defensively they continue to shut down the opposition?s running game. They held NIU to only 74 yards on 32 carries. In their 3 games this season the defense is holding opponents just 2.18 YPR. A big improvement so far compared to last year?s defense which allowed 5.0 yards per carry. On Saturday the Huskers try and break an 8-game losing streak as they head to Illinois. Their last road win came on October 27th of 2017.

Just when you thought Illinois was heading in the right direction, they let everyone know they still have a lot of work to do. The Illini came into last week?s game vs Eastern Michigan with a 2-0 record. Situationally it looked like a good spot for Illinois as they were hosting an EMU team playing their 3rd straight road game and the Eagles were coming off a 38-17 drubbing at Kentucky. Illinois was a 7-point favorite but came up just short losing 34-31. The Illini were down 14 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game. They rallied to tie it late at 31-31 only to watch EMU kick a game winning FG as time expired. The defense, which was without a number of key players including 4 rotation players in the defensive front, was shredded for nearly 500 yards by a team that was averaging 289 YPG coming into the game. Head coach Tubby Smith said he hopes to get some of his defensive players back from injury this week. If not, it could be a problem vs a Nebraska offense that looked like they found their rhythm last week.

This line opened with the Huskers favored by 10.5 and quickly shot up to -13.5. These two have faced each other 8 times since 1985 with Nebraska going 7-1 SU / 6-2 ATS in those meetings. In 6 of those 8 meetings, the Illini failed to get to 20 points. On the other hand, the Huskers have topped 30 points in 6 of the 8 meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

Michigan tries to change narrative
September 18, 2019
By The Associated Press

There is a strong temptation in college football to define teams early in the season, especially when a traditional power delivers a high-profile clunker.

That's where No. 11 Michigan is as the Wolverines head into the first really big Big Ten game of the season. They face No. 13 Wisconsin in Madison on Saturday. Last we saw coach Jim Harbaugh's team it was surviving an overtime scare at the Big House against Army.

As is the case with most blue blood programs - no pun intended - non-Michigan fans generally revel in the Wolverines' every misstep. And with Harbaugh, the coach college football fans love to hate, rooting against Michigan has never been more popular. It's as if everybody not wearing maize and blue is suddenly from Ohio.

As cringe-worthy as Michigan's new-fangled offense was against Army, inspiring a litany of doom-and-gloom takeaways, the Wolverines can flip that narrative and renew the playoff talk they opened the season with by handling a bunch of Badgers who have yet to allow a point.

The first three weeks of the season have been light on games matching ranked teams. There have been just three, none last week. There are that many this weekend, plus a few other teams (No. 10 Utah, No. 12 Texas and No. 16 Oregon) that want to be thought of as playoff contenders facing potentially tough conference tests.

The picks:

FRIDAY

No. 10 Utah (minus 3+) at Southern California

It's getting late early for the Trojans, who have not lost to the Utes at the Coliseum since joining Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011 ... UTAH 28-24.

Air Force (plus 8) at No. 20 Boise State

Falcons have played the Broncos well since they have been Mountain West rivals ... BOISE STATE 35-24.

SATURDAY

Charlotte (plus 41) at No. 1 Clemson

Tigers have two more sacks (14) through three games this season than they had at this point last season with one of the most decorated defensive lines in recent history ... CLEMSON 49-7.

Southern Mississippi (plus 38+) at No. 2 Alabama

Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa has thrown at least four touchdown passes in a game eight times, a school record. He has started 18 games in his career ... ALABAMA 56-14.

No. 7 Notre Dame (plus 14) at No. 3 Georgia

Another big game against an elite opponent that will be very difficult for the Irish to hang with ... GEORGIA 35-17.

No. 4 LSU (minus 23) at Vanderbilt

Commodores' pass defense has been terrible and LSU QB Joe Burrow has been one of the best passers in the country ... LSU 45-20.

Miami, Ohio (plus 39) at No. 6 Ohio State

Led by preseason All-America DE Chase Young (five), the Buckeyes are second in the nation with 14 sacks ... OHIO STATE 49-7.

No. 8 Auburn (plus 3+) at No. 17 Texas A&M

Tigers have won all three meetings in College Station since the Aggies joined the SEC ... TEXAS A&M 24-22.

Tennessee (plus 14) at No. 9 Florida

That matchup of Florida defensive line vs. Tennessee offensive line looks like a big advantage for the Gators ... FLORIDA 28-10.

No. 11 Michigan (plus 3+) at No. 13 Wisconsin

Wolverines have lost four straight at Camp Randall, dating to 2005 ... WISCONSIN 24-20.

Oklahoma State (plus 5+) at No. 12 Texas

Longhorns have lost four straight in the series, so maybe they're not really back until they take care of the Cowboys? ... TEXAS 34-28.

No. 15 UCF (minus 12) at Pittsburgh

UCF freshman QB Dillon Gabriel is averaging 11.6 yards per pass and has yet to throw an interception ... UCF 31-21.

No. 16 Oregon (minus 10) at Stanford

Cardinal have won three straight meetings, but the current version looks nothing like what we have become accustomed to under coach David Shaw ... OREGON 35-23.

UCLA (plus 18+) at No. 19 Washington State

Progress would be keeping it close into the fourth quarter for the Bruins at this point ... WASHINGTON STATE 38-21.

Old Dominion (plus 30) at No. 21 Virginia

You know what, Cavaliers fans? Your team hasn't been this good in so long, just go ahead of rush the field as much as you want ... VIRGINIA 38-7.

No. 22 Washington (minus 6+) at BYU

Cougars trying to make it three straight against Power Five teams ... WASHINGTON 31-23.

No. 23 California (plus 2) at Mississippi

Cal has the look of a one-week wonder in the rankings ... MISSISSIPPI 24-20.

Colorado (plus 7+) at No. 24 Arizona State

Good week for a breakout game for Suns Devils RB Eno Benjamin against a wonky Buffs run defense ... ARIZONA STATE 28-17.

SMU (plus 9+) at No. 25 TCU

Horned Frogs have won seven straight in the crosstown Battle for the Iron Skillet ... TCU 38-24, BEST BET.

TWITTER REQUESTS

Houston (plus 5) at Tulane, Thursday - (at)jefe172

This is the fourth game in 18 days for the Cougars ... HOUSTON 28-27, UPSET SPECIAL.

Utah State (minus 4) at San Diego State - (at)realjakemcneil

QB Jordan Love and the Aggies have the No. 1 offense in the Mountain West; Aztecs are No. 2 in defense ... SAN DIEGO STATE 28-27.

Appalachian State (plus 3) at North Carolina - (at)matthewepley

The wrong team might be favored here ... APPALACHIAN STATE 28-24.

Louisville (plus 6+) at Florida State - (at)R-Barnes407

Every week is a referendum on the Seminoles now ... FLORIDA STATE 31-23.

West Virginia (minus 4+) at Kansas - (at)OKTXARPoke

Last time the Jayhawks won three games in September was 2009, which was also the last time Kansas won more than three games in a season ... WEST VIRGINIA 28-21.

---

Last week: 15-8 straight; 15-8 against the spread.

Season: 54-17 straight; 36-32-2 against the spread.

Upset specials: 0-3 (straight up).

Best bets: 1-2 (against the spread).

 

[Udog]

By: Monty Andrews


WHO?S IN CONTROL?

When the Houston Cougars face the Green Wave in Tulane on Thursday night, fans will be treated to a contrast in styles.

The Cougars love to get the ball moving, evidenced by their 11th-place showing in total plays per game (79) a season ago. The Green Wave, on the other hand, prefer to keep things slow. They've averaged just 66.5 plays so far, ranking just inside the top 100 in that category.

And while the Cougars dominated last year's meeting ? earning a 48-17 home victory ? the game still finished below the total, the fourth straight time the teams have converted the Under.

Look for Tulane to grind out the clock in an effort to keep Houston quarterback D'Eriq King and the rest of the Cougars' weapons off the field. The total has already tumbled 4.5 points from an opening of 60.5, and we still like the Under.


ANOTHER ONE GONE

The Alabama Crimson Tide continue to deal with injuries on their defense corps, with standout defensive end LaBryan Ray the latest to make news.

Ray is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery on his foot earlier this week. He suffered the injury in last weekend's victory over South Carolina. He joins linebackers Dylan Moses and Josh McMillon on the sidelines, leaving the Crimson Tide relying on multiple freshmen as starters on the front seven.

Oddsmakers, however, aren't overly concerned, making Alabama a 39-point favorite for this weekend's showdown with visiting Southern Mississippi.

Look for Nick Saban to do whatever he can to keep his defense off the field this weekend. The Crimson Tide can ill afford another major injury among its defensive starters. We like the Golden Eagles to cover as Alabama focuses on self-preservation with the SEC schedule looming.


RUNYAN RETURNS

Michigan's beleaguered offensive line will be getting a major boost this week with word that left tackle Jon Runyan will return to action against Wisconsin.

Runyan, who has been out with an undisclosed injury, missed the Wolverines' first two games of the season but has returned to practice and should be good to go, barring a setback. His return will help boost a Michigan o-line that has struggled through the first two games. The Wolverines have already allowed six sacks after surrendering just 23 in 13 games all of last season, while the run game is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Runyan's presence should make life a lot easier for Shea Patterson against a Wisconsin defensive front that has racked up five sacks over its first two games. We're keen on Michigan surpassing its team total of 20.5.

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Monty Andrews


WHO?S IN CONTROL?

When the Houston Cougars face the Green Wave in Tulane on Thursday night, fans will be treated to a contrast in styles.

The Cougars love to get the ball moving, evidenced by their 11th-place showing in total plays per game (79) a season ago. The Green Wave, on the other hand, prefer to keep things slow. They've averaged just 66.5 plays so far, ranking just inside the top 100 in that category.

And while the Cougars dominated last year's meeting ? earning a 48-17 home victory ? the game still finished below the total, the fourth straight time the teams have converted the Under.

Look for Tulane to grind out the clock in an effort to keep Houston quarterback D'Eriq King and the rest of the Cougars' weapons off the field. The total has already tumbled 4.5 points from an opening of 60.5, and we still like the Under.


ANOTHER ONE GONE

The Alabama Crimson Tide continue to deal with injuries on their defense corps, with standout defensive end LaBryan Ray the latest to make news.

Ray is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery on his foot earlier this week. He suffered the injury in last weekend's victory over South Carolina. He joins linebackers Dylan Moses and Josh McMillon on the sidelines, leaving the Crimson Tide relying on multiple freshmen as starters on the front seven.

Oddsmakers, however, aren't overly concerned, making Alabama a 39-point favorite for this weekend's showdown with visiting Southern Mississippi.

Look for Nick Saban to do whatever he can to keep his defense off the field this weekend. The Crimson Tide can ill afford another major injury among its defensive starters. We like the Golden Eagles to cover as Alabama focuses on self-preservation with the SEC schedule looming.


RUNYAN RETURNS

Michigan's beleaguered offensive line will be getting a major boost this week with word that left tackle Jon Runyan will return to action against Wisconsin.

Runyan, who has been out with an undisclosed injury, missed the Wolverines' first two games of the season but has returned to practice and should be good to go, barring a setback. His return will help boost a Michigan o-line that has struggled through the first two games. The Wolverines have already allowed six sacks after surrendering just 23 in 13 games all of last season, while the run game is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.

Runyan's presence should make life a lot easier for Shea Patterson against a Wisconsin defensive front that has racked up five sacks over its first two games. We're keen on Michigan surpassing its team total of 20.5.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at TULN 08:00 PM

HOU +4.0

U 58.0

 

[Cnotes53]

QB King passes Tebow for passing/rushing TDs

Houston Cougars quarterback D'Eriq King set the FBS record for the most consecutive games with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown on Thursday night.

King, a senior, made it 15 straight games with each thanks to a 35-yard scoring run in the second quarter of a 38-31 loss to host Tulane.

That breaks a tie with Tim Tebow for the longest streak in FBS history. No other player has an active streak longer than three games.

Earlier Thursday, King had completed touchdown passes of 75 and 28 yards. For the game, he went 16-for-33 for 229 yards with two touchdowns and rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

King's streak started at the beginning of the 2018 season. After Thursday's loss, he has thrown for 3,645 yards and 42 touchdowns to go along with 986 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns during the streak.

Tebow, during his 14-game streak with the Florida Gators, threw for 3,287 yards and 33 touchdowns to go with 934 rushing yards and 24 rushing scores.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB AUGUST/ SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/19/2019.........0-2-0.......0.00%.......-11.00
09/14/2019......28-24-1.....54.00%.......+8.00
09/13/2019.........1-5-0......16.67%.......-22.50
09/07/2019........26-38-2...40.63%........-79.00
09/06/2019.........0-4-0...... 0.00%.........-22.00
09/02/2019.........1-0-1.... 100.00%.......+5.00
09/01/2019........ 1-0-1 ....100.00%...... +5.00
08/31/2019........21-24-0... 46.67%...... -27.00
08/30/2019........ 5-8-0 ......38.46%...... -19.00
08/29/2019........ 6-6-0...... 50.00%....... -3.00

Totals............89-111-4...... 44.50%..... -165.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


09/19/2019............0 - 1..............-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50..............-11.00
09/14/2019...........16 - 7.............+41.50............5 - 6................-8.00.............+33.50
09/13/2019.............0 - 2.............-10.00.............1 - 2................-6.00.............-16.00
09/07/2019.............9 - 15...........-37.50............10 - 12..............-16.00............-53.50
09/06/2019.............0 - 2.............-11.00.............0 - 2................-11.00............-22.00
09/02/2019.............0 - 0.............+0.00..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............+5.00
09/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00..............0 - 0...............+0.00.............+5.00
08/31/2019.............7 - 11...........-25.50..............5 - 9...............-24.50............-50.00
08/30/2019.............2 - 3.............-6.50...............3 - 2...............+4.00.............-2.50
08/29/2019.............1 - 3.............-11.50.............4 - 1...............+14.50...........+3.00

Totals....................36 - 44...........-61.00............29 - 35.............-47.50..........-108.50

 

[Udog]

Total Moves - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Obviously the oddsmakers weren't to happy with the fact that I got out the broom for the sweep with these selections in Week 2, as they flipped that broom around and spanked my ass with the handle to sweep Week 3's plays into the loser's circle. That's twice this year that betting Alabama totals has burned me, but Nick Saban has never really been a man of the people anyways, unless you are cemented to your seat for all four quarters.

Backing the Clemson 'over' never came close, as the defending National Champs brought their best form on defense yet again, holding Syracuse to just 6 points in a 41-6 laugher. But when you're involved in games with the top two teams in the country on the field, having them show up on either side of the ball isn't exactly surprising.

It's on to Week 4's selections of total moves plays though, and one thing's for sure, I'll be on the sidelines for Alabama's game this week.

YTD: 3-3 ATS

Week 4 Total move to disagree with:

Michigan State/Northwestern from 39 to 38

Not the biggest move south by any means on this number, as this Michigan State Spartans team is looking to rebound from a highly disappointing first loss of the year. Getting away from East Lansing and all the discussion about them losing as a 15-point favorite probably is a good thing in terms of them rallying around one another as they open up Big 10 play.

While there is no question that Michigan State's defense is one of the best in the country this year, but it's the Spartans offense that unquestionably has to pick things up and start carrying their own weight. That won't be easy against a Northwestern team that's good on defense as well, but Mark Dantonio has had a knack for knowing how to move the ball against the Wildcats and I doubt that changes this week.

Each of the last three meetings between these teams has cashed 'over' tickets, with total point numbers of 48, 70 (OT game), and 94. Each time the two teams have come into the game with the expectation from the betting market that it will be a brutal defensive slugfest ? not total closed higher then 43 ? and the two schools completely flipped the script in that regard. With the way both defenses have played this season with neither of them allowing more then 17 points against in any one game, that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it?

Furthermore, Northwestern as covered the spread in all three of those games, have scored no fewer then 29 points themselves in any one of those contests, and just like all three of those contests, they are catching points (+9) again this week. You give a 9-point underdog 20+ points on their home field, and chances are this total of 39 will be left in the dark by the time the midway point of the 3rd quarter rolls around as 'over' bettors smile at is as they surpass it.

With the betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com showing a healthy majority (75%+) on the low side of this number, it's best to be on the side of history between these two teams repeating itself this week as we get a lot of points relatively again. Situationally, Michigan State's offense knows it needs to be extremely better to stop putting the burden of each week's result on their defense, while Northwestern won't shy away from doing what they have to Dantonio's defenses the past three years and take full advantage of their opportunities.

Week 4 Total move to to agree with:

UCF/Pittsburgh from 58 to 61

This is another minority play based on the betting percentages currently up on the site (75%+), and while it is easily understandable as to why there is healthy support for the 'under' in the Michigan State/Northwestern game, the case for it here is a bit puzzling.

Yes, Pittsburgh has been a great 'under' team dating back to the end of last year as they are on a 0-7 O/U run as a program, but how much success they expect to have against a UCF attack that's put up 45 or more points in every game this year can't be a lot. The Knights have surprised me with just how good their offense remains to be this season, and even though Pittsburgh's defense has looked good for the bulk of 2019 ? the season opening 30-14 loss to Virginia was a tad rough ? I believe you've got to expect another 40+ point effort from UCF this week.

Maybe it's the fact that Pittsburgh played in a slugfest type game against Penn State last week and that's still fresh in the minds of the majority of the betting market, but remember conditions in that game weren't ideal, and that rivalry does tend to be a war. I mean, Pittsburgh's defense did little to stop UCF in this game a year ago (45-14 UCF win) and based on that alone, you've got to figure that Pittsburgh knows they've got to adopt a much more aggressive offensive approach to have a chance at pulling off the upset this season.

Just in terms of game script, if you give the Knights somewhere in the 35-45 point range for this game as it's not hard to do given their offensive performances this year, a 10-11 road chalk line suggests that Pittsburgh will be able to put up 24-34 points themselves in many likely scenarios. The lowest of those ranges don't eclipse the current number ? hence the total move up ? but the highest of those ranges eclipses the current number by multiple scores. That's quite the margin of error you've got in a game where you are also going against the majority of the market seemingly, even if you are betting into a bit of a bad number currently.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Central Michigan-Miami, Fl.: 51 to 48
Tennessee-Florida: 52 to 49
Nevada-UTEP: 54.5 to 52

Up
Bowling Green-Kent State: 59.5 to 62
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Notre Dame-Georgia: 56 to 58.5

 

[Udog]

Utah at USC
Matt Blunt

Venue/Location: L.A. Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 20, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1
Line: Utah -4, Total 51.5

It's the second Friday in a row that a Pac-12 team gets the Friday night spotlight, and this week it's a conference tilt between the Utes and Trojans.

For all the talk the Pac-12 gets about struggling to represent itself as a ?true? Power Five conference on the national stage given they've got no ?elite? team in their ranks, the conference enters the week with six schools ranked in the Top 25, and that's after USC fell out of the rankings after last week's loss at BYU. That was a tough loss to say the least for this Trojans team trying to climb back towards respectability on the national stage, it was a tough spot for them in general, on the road with a freshman QB Kedon Slovis making his first career road start.

The three INT's Slovis threw really hurt as it's hard to win at any level of football when you lose the turnover battle 3-0, and while they didn't lose any of the three fumbles they had too, USC was just all around too loose with the ball in Provo. USC will need to clean that up against a much better Utah team if they want a shot at winning on Friday night, and get what would be their first win against a ranked foe this year.

It is hard to erase the memory of those INT's that Slovis threw a week ago and it's decent support for Utah backers out there. But as I mentioned earlier, first true road starts for freshmen tend to come with some severe growing pains and Slovis wasn't immune to those at all. Utah's defense will present a much stiffer test then the brand of defense that BYU played, and that's another piece of support for Utah backers this week.

Yet, this game is back at The Coliseum and Slovis has been tremendous overall in his action on the field. Home field can mean more in the college game in general, but that's especially true when you've got a young QB at the helm. Even with the three INT's last week, Slovis has shown he's more then a capable passer at this level ? which you can credit high school QB coach Kurt Warner with ? and the friendly surroundings he'll be in under the lights should help mitigate potential mistakes. But as I said before, Utah's defense will look to be in Slovis' face all afternoon and confuse him with their looks to bait him into errors, and given the veteran-laden roster Utah has, it will be interesting to see how that ends up playing out.

At the same time, Utah and their QB Tyler Huntley will look to do what they did to this USC team a year ago ? beating them 41-28 - in a game that wasn't really as close as that final score suggests. The Utes put up 550 total yards on offense and gave up just 205, which is nothing but more support for Utah backers this week.

However, Utah has yet to be tested in any sense in 2019, and as I touched on in this piece regarding Michigan, there is something to be said for teams having already faced adversity and understanding how they'll react in that scenario. USC understands that they would have likely had that BYU game had they been more diligent in protecting the ball, and that in terms of talent on the field, they are right there with Utah. Had last week's game in Provo ended in victory, this would have been a huge battle between ranked foes, and even though the Trojans don't have a Top 25 number beside their name now, they'll be right back in that group with a win this week.

Utah's still got unanswered questions about how they'll react when facing adversity or potentially trailing against a quality foe, as they've trailed for all of about five minutes so far this year. And while they did put a decent beating on the Trojans a year ago, things change quite a bit from season to season, and being in hostile territory never helps either. They are still 0-2 ATS this year despite two relatively easy wins, and even with about 70% of the support in the betting market already, the point spread has stayed relatively static. That's not a good sign either, and with 0-5 ATS run against a winning foe and after allowing fewer then 20 points in their last outing both active here, in terms of handicapping the market, there are a lot of warning signs littered out there for Utes backers.

Furthermore, the Pac-12's reputation of not being a player on the national stage stems from the idea that teams in this conference tend to beat up on one another and those losses by the higher ranked Pac-12 schools in those spots devalue the conference as a whole. Big picture, that's not necessarily a bad thing given that it suggests the bulk of the teams in the conference are fairly deep and evenly matched, because as the great Bill Walton never fails to remind us during basketball season, the Pac-12 is ?the Conference of Champions.?

It would fit right into the Pac-12's M.O to see USC rise up at home in this spot and knock off a team that's ranked 11th in the country like Utah is, as Slovis and the rest of the Trojans offense clean up the sloppiness that plagued them a week ago.

The home side has won each of the past six meetings straight up as it is, and are 7-1 against the number going back a bit further. Slovis should be able to use last week's struggles as a great teaching moment to move forward in his career the rest of the way, and Utah is probably a bit to overvalued as it is, just based on the veteran roster that they have.

The Utes could easily stumble in their first road game of the year in a similar fashion to what we saw from USC a week ago, and it's not like the Trojans are the disaster of a program they were in 2018. So unless Mike Leach's concerns from his viral press conference this week are indeed true, and the Ute has upgraded to a rifle, I believe Friday night's game ends up going to the sword-wielding Trojans.

Best Bet: USC +4

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 1-2 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

FIU at LT 08:00 PM
LT -7.0
O 51.5

UTAH at USC 09:00 PM
USC +3.5
U 53.5

AFA at BSU 09:00 PM
AFA +7.5
U 53.0