CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Circa Picks - Week 6
October 12, 2019
By VI News

Westgate SuperContest Consensus - Week 6

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3 ? Week 4 ? Week 5

Week 6

1) Jacksonville -1.5 (696)

2) Tennessee +2.5 (521)

3) Cleveland +1.5 (486)

4) Seattle -1.5 (468)

5) Minnesota -3 (463)

CIRCA - WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Giants (+17) 53 New England (-17) 144
Carolina (-2) 430 Tampa Bay (+2) 210
Cincinnati (+11) 269 Baltimore (-11) 128
Seattle (-1.5) 468 Cleveland (+1.5) 486
Houston (+4) 301 Kansas City (-4) 423
New Orleans (+1.5) 375 Jacksonville (-1.5) 696
Philadelphia (+3) 322 Minnesota (-3) 463
Washington (-3) 344 Miami (+3) 86
San Francisco (+3.5) 444 L.A. Rams (-3.5) 441
Atlanta (-2.5) 358 Arizona (+2.5) 177
Dallas (-7) 430 N.Y. Jets (+7) 193
Tennessee (+2.5) 521 Denver (-2.5) 216
Pittsburgh (+7) 439 L.A. Chargers (-7) 143
Detroit (+4) 345 Green Bay (-4) 325

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%

 

[Cnotes53]

SuperContest Picks - Week 6
October 12, 2019
By VI News

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3 ? Week 4 ? Week 5


Week 6

1) L.A. Rams -3 (1225)

2) Jacksonville -1.5 (1111)

3) Seattle -1 (932)

4) Minnesota -3 (858)

5) Dallas -7 (811)

SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 6 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Giants (+17) 103 New England (-17) 308
Carolina (-2.5) 656 Tampa Bay (+2.5) 477
Cincinnati (+11) 472 Baltimore (-11) 256
Seattle (-1) 932 Cleveland (+1) 744
Houston (+4.5) 648 Kansas City (-4.5) 613
New Orleans (+1.5) 810 Jacksonville (-1.5) 1111
Philadelphia (+3) 642 Minnesota (-3) 858
Washington (-3.5) 279 Miami (+3.5) 237
San Francisco (+3) 457 L.A. Rams (-3) 1225
Atlanta (-2.5) 628 Arizona (+2.5) 392
Dallas (-7) 811 N.Y. Jets (+7) 347
Tennessee (+2) 784 Denver (-2) 486
Pittsburgh (+6.5) 419 L.A. Chargers (-6.5) 486
Detroit (+4) 675 Green Bay (-4) 679

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 2-3 11-9 55%
5 3-2 14-11 56%

 

[Udog]

NFL Sunday Week 6 odds and line moves: Despite spread drop, book needs Texans vs Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Deshaun Watson's Houston squad opened as 8-point underdogs for Sunday's game at Kansas City, and the line dropped to -4. But The SuperBook still needs the Texans, as the public piles on the Chiefs.

NFL Week 6 Sunday features a clash of dynamic quarterbacks, in a game seeing reverse line movement. We check in on the action for that contest and three others, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs ? Open: -8; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4

Kansas City was certainly expected to remain among the league?s unbeaten, but got an unpleasant surprise in Week 5. The Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) went off as 10.5-point home favorites against Indianapolis in the Sunday nighter, but lost outright 19-13.

Houston has lacked consistency thus far, but the Deshaun Watson-led offense was certainly on the mark in Week 5. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) cooked up a 50-plus burger against Atlanta, including 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home faves.

The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -8 before their Sunday night tilt, took the line off the board during that game, then reopened -6.5 Monday morning. The line since plunged to -4, but looks can be deceiving here.

?We definitely need the Texans,? Osterman said of this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. ?Sharps have been on the Texans, but it?s fair to say the Chiefs are the most popular public team. With all Kansas City?s injuries and Mahomes? ankle, it makes sense that the line moved the way it did. But there?s no shortage of people willing to bet on the Chiefs.

?With Mahomes playing, getting the Chiefs at less than a touchdown, Joe Public is all over that.?

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams ? Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles heads into this 4:05 p.m. ET start on a two-game skid. In Week 5, the Rams battled back and forth with Seattle, losing 30-29 while cashing as 1.5-point road underdogs in the Thursday night game.

San Francisco is among the last of the league?s unbeatens, joining New England in the rare air. The 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) pounded Cleveland 31-3 in the Week 5 Monday nighter, easily cashing as 5-point home favorites.

This line was off the board during the Niners? victory, and when it reposted Tuesday morning, it tightened 1.5 points to Rams -3.5.

?We?ve taken a lot on the Niners at +3 (even money), but the liability isn?t huge,? Osterman said. ?Respected money on the 49ers early, but there?s been some buyback on the Rams all the way. We need the Rams for a little bit.?

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings ? Open: -3; Move: -3.5

Philadelphia got back on track over the past two weeks, winning and cashing to tie Dallas top the NFC East. In Week 5, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) drummed the New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Minnesota hopes to end its trend thus far of alternating wins and losses. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites in Week 5 and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

?The Vikings were at -3 (even), now they?re at -3.5 flat,? Osterman said of line movement for a 1 p.m. ET start. ?We?re getting a lot more Eagles support from the public and a little sharp money on the Vikings. For the game, we need the Eagles, but if the Vikings cover, it would knock out a bunch of parlays.?

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins ? Open: -3.5; Move: -4

Winless Miami gets its best chance to break through, facing another winless team in a 1 p.m. showdown of sorts. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye week, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points in Week 4.

Washington is in turmoil, firing coach Jay Gruden on Monday after an 0-5 SU start (1-4 ATS). A day earlier, the Redskins got on the board first against New England with a first-quarter touchdown, but didn?t score again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

?We?ve taken some Redskins money. We were at -3.5 (even) Thursday, took a $10,000 bet on Washington and went to -3.5 flat, and now we?re at -4,? Osterman said. ?We?re definitely gonna need the Dolphins. I don?t see anybody who wants to bet on the Dolphins. That?ll be a decent-size decision by the time the game kicks off.?

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 6
Tony Mejia

Panthers (-2.5/47.5) vs. Buccaneers, 9:30 p.m. ET, NFLN: The Raiders stunned the Bears in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium?s maiden NFL voyage last week. This NFC South showdown ensures we won?t see a major upset but we?ll hopefully get another exciting, competitive game. Tampa Bay is giving up a true home game here as they they attempt to sweep the season series from the Panthers, having taken advantage of a rough second half from Cam Newton to post a 20-14 Week 2 Thursday night win. Christian McCaffrey was denied a go-ahead touchdown at the 1-yard line late in that game but hasn?t been stopped effectively since, posting over 180 yards in three consecutive games, which includes a 237-yard, three-touchdown effort in last week?s win over Jacksonville.

Kyle Allen has benefited from McCaffrey?s brilliance in being able to settle in and comes in 3-0 in place of Newton. Jameis Winston has thrown for 969 yards and nine touchdowns against just two interceptions over the past three games since beating Carolina but has only gotten top receiver Mike Evans on track in one of Tampa?s five games to date. Evans failed to catch a pass and was only targeted three times in last week?s loss in New Orleans, so Winston is going to go out of his way to ensure he gets going early. Mother Nature will also have to supply permission for Evans to truly get involved since rain is expected in North London throughout most of the contest. Carolina has had to do some reshuffling on both sides of the ball with guard Trai Turner still sidelined and DT Kawann Short going down for the season. Tampa also has offensive line issues to mask but got good news in that NFL sack leader Shaquil Barrett (9) is expected to play through an oblique injury.

Bengals at Ravens (-11/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Since opening with that 59-10 rout in Miami, the Ravens haven?t covered a single spread. Last week?s OT win at the Steelers ended in a push ATS and snapped a two-game losing streak after surrendering 73 combined points in falling against the Chiefs and Browns. With games against the Seahawks and Patriots scheduled the next two weeks, it?s important that they don?t overlook the winless Bengals as they visit on what?s expected to be a cloudy day in Baltimore. The ?over? is 4-1 on the season in Baltimore games as Lamar Jackson and the offense have continued producing, helping average 32.2 points per game for the season.

Cincinnati scored a season-high 23 points in falling at home against Kyler Murray-led Arizona last week. That number matches the Ravens? lowest-scoring output of the season. Zac Taylor?s offense has struggled to take shape and has clearly missed the presence of top WR A.J. Green, who will remain out in Week 6. Offensive line play has been a hinderance that could resurface in Baltimore since veteran tackle Andre Smith has been ruled out in addition to Cordy Glenn (concussion), who hasn?t played in nearly two months. Andy Dalton will have to rely on the screen game while picking his spots on when to take shots downfield considering he isn?t likely to get a lot of protection. Ravens rookie WR Marquise ?Hollywood? Brown has been ruled out with an ankle issue while safety Tony Jefferson was ruled out the rest of the season after tearing his ACL last week. Cincy is going to be thin up front with Carlos Dunlap, Kerry Winn and Ryan Glasnow all ruled out.

Seahawks at Browns (PK/46.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: There will be some wind gusts for Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield to deal with, but sunny weather means both should settle in as they attempt to produce in a matchup that ranks among Sunday?s most highly anticipated games. Seattle has scored 27 or more points in four straight but must overcome issues up front against a Myles Garrett-led pass rush since tackle Duane Brown (biceps) isn?t expected to play and guards D.J. Fluker and Ethan Pocic have already been ruled out. Wilson will likely be forced into buying time for his receivers and will have the benefit of RB Chris Carson lining up beside him despite limited participation in practice this past week due to shoulder trouble. Seattle has won and covered in both road games, but the Browns represent a step up in caliber of competition from the Steelers and Cardinals.

Mayfield and the Cleveland offense looked terrible on Monday night, scoring just three points in a 31-3 loss to San Francisco, the team?s second setback by 28 or more points this season. The Browns? defense will again be without top corner Denzel Ward and impact rookie Greedy Williams, leaving the team vulnerable in the back if Wilson is successful in buying time to throw. Mayfield is looking to find a rhythm with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry since he comes in completing just 55.9 percent of passes and a league-high eight interceptions. Head coach Freddie Kitchens still has the support of a fan base that?s hoping for the best, but if the production doesn?t pick up -- the Browns have scored just 13 points apiece in both home losses thus far ? expect the Dawg Pound to start turning against him.

Texans at Chiefs (-4/55), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Patrick Mahomes made the decision early in the week that he?d be fine for this one after in-game ankle injuries limited his mobility in contributing to last Sunday night?s upset loss to Indianapolis, but we?re about to find out just how much mobility has been restored. WR Tyreek Hill is hoping to return from a collarbone injury suffered in the season opener, which would really help Mahomes since WR Sammy Watkins has been ruled out with a hamstring issue and offensive line play has been a concern.

Conditions for a shootout between Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, picked 10th and 12th in the 2017 NFL draft, look good. Minimal wind will be present and temperatures will be in the low 60s at Arrowhead, as the Texans look to build on a 53-point outburst in beating the Falcons last week. Houston has performed well on the road, covering in losing at the gun in New Orleans in the season?s opening Monday night game while winning outright at the Chargers three weeks ago. Will Fuller stepped up last week as defenses continue to focus on DeAndre Hopkins, while TE Jordan Akins has also flashed. New addition Kenny Stills is hoping to return from a hamstring injury and will be a game-time decision. The Chiefs are hoping to bounce back from their lowest-scoring output since November of 2017, before Mahomes took over Alex Smith.

Saints at Jaguars (-2.5/42.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: All eyes are on the availability of Saints star WR Alvin Kamara, who made the trip to Jacksonville despite an ankle injury and is expected to play. He?s made life easier on QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill, so if he?s unable to go, the Jaguars would offer tremendous value as a slight favorite. Following home wins over the Cowboys and Bucs in which the defense made sizeable contributions, Sean Payton is hoping that Bridgewater can return to his home state and build off becoming the first Saints? QB not named Drew Brees to throw four touchdown passes in last week?s 31-24 conquest of Tampa Bay. His task will be made more difficult if Jalen Ramsey follows through on his intent to play, returning from back pain that intensified after he requested a trade and expressed his displeasure with the organization.

The offense has unexpectedly become the focal point for Jacksonville due to the emergence of rookie QB Gardner Minshew and top target D.J. Chark, not to mention the fact a slimmer, more explosive Leonard Fournette has had some impressive performances. Minshew is dealing with a groin issue but will play, hoping to foster a new connection with a tight end since the productive James O?Shaughnessy tore his ACL. He was leading the Jags in red-zone targets. Backup tight end Josh Oliver is also out, so Jacksonville is really thin at that spot. Conditions will be clear in North Florida with temperatures in the mid-to-high 80?s expected.

Eagles at Vikings (-3.5/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The loser of this game will find themselves unexpectedly 3-3, so this should be a physical, competitive affair between two of the more highly-regarded teams in the wide open NFC. Carson Wentz has produced three games of 30 or more points despite injuries to multiple key receivers, so he should be fine without DeSean Jackson back. Trusted RB Darren Sproles is also going to be sidelined, which means more work for Jordan Howard and rookie Miles Sanders, both of whom have made strides of late.

Philadelphia has had issues with its secondary, which gives Kirk Cousins an opportunity to prove he can handle the challenge of performing well in this type of game. Cousins has really struggled against teams with winning records and was called the weak link of the Vikes? offense this week by Eagles LB Zack Brown. He?ll have Adam Thielen in the mix after connecting with him seven times for 130 yards and two scores last week and needs to continue to keep Stefon Diggs happy in order to help alleviate concerns over his early-season struggles. Philadelphia wants to keep Dalvin Cook from creating manageable second and third downs for Cousins? and the offense, so expect the playcalling on first to be the x-factor in this one since the Eagles have excelled against the run thus far.

Redskins (-4/42.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This brutal matchup between winless teams features teams that have also managed to be 1-8 against the spread despite the benefit of large numbers placed by bookmakers hoping to land some action against substantial favorites. The ?Skins dumped Jay Gruden, putting Bill Callahan back in the spotlight as the interim coach. The difference between these two organizations seems to be that ownership wants to win while the Dolphins are happily tanking for Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, the top prize in this upcoming draft.

Callahan is expected to bench QB Colt McCoy, last week?s starter, in favor of Case Keenum and rookie Dwayne Haskins. Washington has been outscored 57-10 in losses to the Giants and Patriots the past few weeks, so picking up a demoralized group with a coaching change and the opportunity to hit the reset button should produce early results. I?d ride the visitors in a first-half bet here against a Miami squad that has been outscored 163-26 thus far. The Dolphins are coming off a bye week, their first under new head coach Brian Flores, but remain banged-up. Injuries to safety Reshad Jones and a number of corners could against leave Miami compromised in the secondary. Plenty of emply seats are expected in Miami Gardens.

Falcons at Cardinals (-2.5/52.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: Dan Quinn got the dreaded vote of confidence from owner Arthur Blank last weekend after the Falcons? ugly loss to the Texans, so there?s no question that the pressure is on him to yield results or immediately or risk failing getting out of this month with his job. Since blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, Atlanta has gone 18-19 in regular-season games and enters this contest in Glendale favored regardless considering the Cardinals are still on the ground floor of Kliff Kingsbury?s rebuilding project while the Falcons are supposed to be a finished product. We?re going to see if that ends up with a new meaning in that they?re finished under Quinn once this one is over.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are coming of the first win of the Kingsbury era after holding on in Cincinnati. This will be the last game the Cardinals will play without suspended corner Patrick Peterson, which could spell trouble since Matt Ryan does have options out there since Arizona will likely have no choice but to shade coverage to Julio Jones with their top corner availability, which could mean big days for Mohamed Sanu or Calvin Ridley. The Falcons went from Houston to Arizona and have spent significant time together hoping to foster a better connection, so this is a big game for them. Arizona starts a pair of rookies in the back and has ranked near the bottom in most pass defense categories without its most talented player.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at CLE 01:00 PM
SEA +1.0
U 45.5

NO at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -2.5
U 43.0

PHI at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -3.5
U 45.0

CIN at BAL 01:00 PM
CIN +10.5
O 46.5

WAS at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +5.5
U 42.0

HOU at KC 01:00 PM
KC -3.5
U 54.5

 

[Cnotes53]

ATL at ARI 04:05 PM
ATL -3.0
O 52.5

SF at LAR 04:05 PM
LAR -3.0
O 49.5

DAL at NYJ 04:25 PM
NYJ +7.5
U 43.5

TEN at DEN 04:25 PM
DEN -1.5
U 41.0

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BET:

PIT at LAC 08:20 PM

LAC -6.0

U 42.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday??

Texans 31, Chiefs 24
? Texans covered six of last seven games when getting points on the road.
? Houston ran for 192 yards; they ran 83 plays, Chiefs 47.
? AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 8-2 ATS

? Chiefs lost consecutive home games for first time since 2013.
? KC?s first three drives: 19 plays, 176 yards, 17 points.
? KC?s last six drives: 29 plays, 145 yards, 7 points.

Jets 24, Cowboys 22
? Dallas lost its last three games after a 3-0 start.
? Cowboys scored 31+ points in their three wins, were held to 10-24-22 in losses.
? Dallas was 10-17 on third down, the Jets only 2-10.

? Darnold proves that franchise QB?s are worth every penny.
? He threw for 338 yards, including a 92-yard TD to Anderson.
? Cowboys scored TD with 0:43 left but missed on tying 2-point play.

Ravens 23, Bengals 17
? Bengals ran opening kick back for TD; their next TD was with 1:28 left in game.
? Winless Cincy has four losses by six or fewer points.
? Bengals are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.

? Jackson ran ball for 152 yards, 4th-most ever by a QB.
? First two Raven drives: 16 plays, 141 yards, 14 points.
? Last seven Raven drives: 38 plays, 325 yards, 9 points.

Seahawks 32, Browns 28
? Seattle had four takeaways (+3), blocked a punt.
? Seahawks trailed 20-6 in 2nd quarter, cut it to 20-18 by the half.
? Seattle is 5-1 with four wins by four of fewer points.

? Kitchens mismanaged his timeouts; needed one with 2:11 left for a challenge, but didn?t have it, and he might?ve won the challenge.
? Cleveland is 6-14 ATS in last 20 games as a favorite.
? Browns lost their first three home games; they play New England after their bye.

Saints 13, Jaguars 6
? Saints are 5-1, with no wins by more than seven points.
? New Orleans is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games.
? Saints are 4-0 SU/ATS with Teddy Bridgewater under center.

? Jaguars? first four drives: 14 plays, 33 yards, four punts.
? New Orleans won field position in this game by 14 yards.
? Jaguars gained only 226 yards, converted 4-14 third down plays.

Vikings 38, Eagles 20
? Eagles allowed Minnesota to gain 10.8 yards/pass attempt.
? Philly is 9-25 on 3rd down last two games (32-57 in first four games).
? This was first time this season Eagles were outscored in 2nd half (14-10).

? Cousins was 22-29/333 passing with four TD?s.
? Diggs caught seven balls for 167 yards and four TD?s.
? Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 25-7-1 ATS as a home favorite

Panthers 37, Buccaneers 26:
? Carolina is now 4-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 31.3 ppg
? Panthers sacked Winston seven times.
? Carolina started 5 drives in TB territory, won field position by 14 yards.

? Bucs turned ball over seven times on 75 plays.
? Winston in first QB since 1996 (Mark Brunell) with 400+ PY, 5+ INT?s in same game.
? Bucs allowed 31+ points in five of their six games.

Redskins 17, Dolphins 16
? McLaurin scored both Redskin TD?s, catching passes of 33-25 yards.
? Washington ran ball 33 times, threw 25 passes in Callahan?s first game as HC.
? NFC East teams are 4-12 ATS outside their division.

? Fitzpatrick came off bench, rallied Dolphins for two 4th quarter TD?s, their first 2nd half points this season.
? Miami scored with 0:06 left, went for 2 points and the win- they missed.
? Dolphins were outscored 149-36 in their first four home games.

49ers 20, Rams 7
? Under Shanahan, SF is 10-7 ATS as a road underdog. 3-0 this year.
? TE George Kittle had eight catches for 103 yards.
? This was first time since 2001 that these rivals met when both sides were over .500.

? Rams lost their last three games, after a 3-0 start.
? Goff threw for 912 yards in previous two games, but had only 78 in this game.
? LA converted only seven of last 31 third down plays.

Cardinals 34, Falcons 33
? Atlanta rallied back from down 27-10, scored TD with 1:53 left, but missed PAT.
? Ryan was 30-36/356 passing, with four TD passes.
? Falcons are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games

? Arizona won its last two games by total of 4 points, after an 0-2-1 start.
? Cardinals? first five drives: 46 plays, 357 yards, three TD?s, two FG?s.
? Arizona is 15-10-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home underdog.

Broncos 16, Titans 0
? Tennessee lost 4 of last 5 games; they scored one TD on their last 25 drives.
? Titans scored 43-24 points in their wins, 17-7-7-0 in losses.
? Last four Tennessee games stayed under the total.

? Denver won its last two games after an 0-4 start.
? Broncos? only TD here came on a 41-yard drive.
? Denver held the Titans to 39 yards on 21 rushing attempts.

Steelers 24, Chargers 17
? Pittsburgh scored a defensive TD 4:09 into the game.
? Steelers led 24-0 after three quarters, get win in Devlin?s first NFL start.
? Pitt is 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog

? San Diego is 8th-largest city in country; why did Chargers leave there?
? Sounded like crowd was at least 80% Steeler fans.
? Chargers are 2-9 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 6 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Saints, +1.5 (810)- W

5) Cowboys, -7 (811)- L

4) Vikings, -3 (858)- W

3) Seahawks, -1 (932)- W

2) Jaguars, -1.5 (1,111)- L

1) LA Rams, -3 (1,225)- L

2019 record: 19-16-1


Quote of the Day
?More football games are lost than are won.?
Hall of Fame coach George Allen

Monday?s quiz
Which Las Vegas casino is shaped like a pyramid?

Sunday?s quiz
Mike Leach was the football coach at Texas Tech before moving to Washington State.

Saturday?s quiz
Tony Bennett won the national title coaching Virginia LY; before coming to Virginia, Bennett went 32-22 in Pac-12 games coaching at Washington State.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Today, Week 6
October 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Oct. 14

Detroit at Green Bay, 8:15 p.m. EDT. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has led Green Bay to seven wins in nine starts at home against Detroit, throwing 17 TDs and three INTs with a passer rating of 109.4. ... Green Bay is 27-11 against the Lions since 2000 and the Packers are 16-3 at home against Detroit since 2000.

---

STARS

Passing

- Matt Ryan, Falcons, was 30 for 36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns in Atlanta's 34-33 loss to Arizona.

- Kirk Cousins, Vikings, was 22 for 29 for 333 yards, four touchdown passes and an interception in Minnesota's 38-20 win over Philadelphia.

- Kyler Murray, Cardinals, finished 27 for 37 for 340 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona's 34-33 win over Atlanta.

- Russell Wilson, Seahawks, was 23 for 33 for 295 yards and two touchdowns in Seattle's 32-28 win over Cleveland.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, was 19 for 35 for 273 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in Kansas City's 31-24 loss to Houston.

- Carson Wentz, Eagles, finished 26 for 40 for 306 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in Philadelphia's 38-20 loss to Minnesota.

---

Rushing

- Quarterback Lamar Jackson, Ravens, had 19 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore's 23-17 win over Cincinnati.

- Chris Carson, Seahawks, had 24 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown in Seattle's 32-28 win over Cleveland.

- Nick Chubb, Browns, had 20 carries for 122 yards and two touchdowns in Cleveland's 32-28 loss to Seattle.

- Adrian Peterson, Redskins, had 23 carries for 118 yards in Washington's 17-16 win over Miami.

- Carlos Hyde, Texans, had 26 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown in Houston's 31-24 win over Kansas City.

---

Receiving

- Stefon Diggs, Vikings, had seven catches for 167 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota's 38-20 win over Philadelphia.

- Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Buccaneers. Godwin had 10 catches for 151 yards and Evans added nine catches for 96 yards in Tampa Bay's 37-26 loss to Carolina.

- Robby Anderson, Jets, had five catches for 125 yards, including a 92-yard touchdown in New York's 24-22 win over Dallas. The 92-yarder was the second-longest reception in franchise history behind the 96-yard TD catch by Wesley Walker on a pass from Ken O'Brien at Buffalo on Dec. 8, 1985.

- Austin Hooper and Julio Jones, Falcons. Hooper had eight catches for 117 yards and a touchdown and Jones had eight catches for 108 yards in Atlanta's 34-33 loss to Arizona.

- Odell Beckham Jr., Browns, had six catches for 101 yards in Cleveland's 32-28 loss to Seattle.

- Terry McLaurin, Redskins, had four catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns in Washington's 17-16 win over Miami.

---

Special Teams

- Brandon Wilson, Bengals, returned the opening kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown in Cincinnati's 23-17 loss to Baltimore. It was the first kickoff return for a TD by Cincinnati since Bernard Scott against Pittsburgh in 2009.

- Justin Tucker, Ravens, was 3 for 3 on field goals and 2 for 2 on extra points in Baltimore's 23-17 win over Cincinnati.

- Brett Maher, Cowboys, was 3 of 4 on field goals, including a 62-yarder, in Dallas' 24-22 loss to the New York Jets. He joined Sebastian Janikowski (two) and Greg Zuerlein (two) as the only kickers with at least two field goals of at least 60 yards in NFL history.

- Brandon McManus, Broncos, was 3 for 3 on field goals and added an extra point in Denver's 16-0 win over Tennessee.

---

Defense

- Gerald McCoy, James Bradberry and Vernon Butler, Panthers. McCoy had 2+ sacks against his former team, Bradberry had two of his team's five interceptions and Butler added two sacks in Carolina's 37-26 win over Tampa Bay.

- DeMarcus Walker and Derek Wolfe, Broncos. Walker and Wolfe each had two sacks in Denver's 16-0 win over Tennessee.

- Aaron Donald, Rams, had two sacks and a forced fumble in Los Angeles' 20-7 loss to San Francisco.

- Jonathan Allen, Redskins, had two sacks in Washington's 17-16 win over Miami.

- Myles Garrett, Browns, had two sacks in Cleveland's 32-28 loss to Seattle.

- Cameron Jordan, Saints, had two sacks in New Orleans' 13-6 win over Jacksonville.

---

MILESTONES

Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson surpassed 7,500 passing yards in his 29th game in a 31-24 win over the Chiefs. Only Hall of Famer Kurt Warner reached that mark in fewer games (27). ... Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had 236 yards passing and 152 rushing yards in a 23-17 win over Cincinnati. Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards and rush for 150 yards in a regular-season game. Jackson is also the first QB in the Super Bowl era with three career games with at least 100 rushing yards in his first two seasons. ... Washington running back Adrian Peterson had 118 yards in his team's 17-16 win over Miami to reach the 100-yard rushing mark for the 56th time. ... New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold passed for 338 yards and two touchdowns, including a 92-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Robby Anderson, in the Jets' 24-22 win against Dallas. Darnold, at 22 years and 130 days old, is the youngest player in the Super Bowl era with a touchdown pass of at least 90 yards. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 243 yards in the 49ers' 20-7 win at the Los Angeles Rams. San Francisco advanced to 5-0 for the first time since 1990. ... Garoppolo, making his 15th career start, improved to 13-2 as a starting quarterback and became the eighth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win 13 of his first 15 starts.

---

STREAKS & STATS

After a 0-2 start, the Panthers have won four in a row as they enter their bye week. Carolina had seven sacks and five interceptions in a 37-26 win over Tampa Bay in London, becoming the first team with at least seven sacks and five interceptions in a game since the Miami Dolphins (eight sacks, six interceptions) on Dec. 6, 1998. ... The Saints improved to 4-0 without injured starter Drew Brees with a 13-6 win over the Jaguars. ... Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has five games with at least four turnovers, while no other player has more than two of those games since Winston entered the league in 2015. Winston had five turnovers in all, giving him an NFL-worst 86 in the past five seasons. ... Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs had TD receptions of 51 and 62 yards, becoming the first player since Randy Moss in 2000 to post two touchdown receptions of 50-plus yards in one game for the Vikings. ... Cincinnati lost to Baltimore 23-17 to remain winless on the season. The Bengals have failed to a produce an offensive touchdown over the first three quarters in a third straight game. ... The Seahawks topped the Browns 32-28 in Cleveland and improved to 3-0 on the road for the first time in 39 years. After opening their respective seasons at 3-0, both the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams have dropped three straight. ... The Niners didn't score a touchdown in the final 27 minutes of their 20-7 win over the L.A. Rams, but they're off to their fourth 5-0 start in franchise history, and their first since 1990. ... The Falcons (1-5) have lost four straight games after falling 34-33 to Arizona.

---

SIDELINED

Seahawks tight end Will Dissly, whose 2018 season ended after four games when he tore his right patellar tendon, was seriously hurt again, suffering an Achilles injury in Seattle's 32-28 victory over the Cleveland Browns. ... Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield was escorted to the locker room with a hip injury but returned to the game. Cleveland defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale sustained a head injury in the closing minutes. ... The Philadelphia Eagles lost left tackle Jason Peters to a left knee injury in their loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Peters returned briefly after getting hurt in the second quarter before leaving for good. ... In their victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Houston Texans endured injuries to right tackle Tytus Howard (knee), cornerback Bradley Roby (hamstring) and linebacker Zach Cunningham (knee). ... Jaguars receiver Marqise Lee, who missed all of last season after tearing three ligaments in his left knee, injured his right foot/ankle in the third quarter of Jacksonville's loss to New Orleans and had to be helped to the locker room. ... Bengals cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick was carted off the field in the first quarter and did not return as Cincinnati remained winless with a loss to the Ravens. Guard John Miller left in the second quarter with a groin injury and did not return. ... Three Dallas defensive players were hurt in the Cowboys' loss to the Jets: cornerback Byron Jones (hamstring), defensive end Dorance Armstrong (neck) and cornerback Anthony Brown (hamstring).

---

SPEAKING

''The refs are never an excuse. I will probably get fined for saying this, but it was pretty bad today. ... It ticks me off.'' - Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield on the officiating in his game after Cleveland lost to Seattle 32-28.

---

''Games like this, two winless teams, everybody pulls out the stops. It was wild all the way to the last minute.'' - Washington interim coach Bill Callahan after his team earned its first win of the season with 17-16 victory at Miami, which fell to 0-5.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............88-80-1.......... 52.38%............ +0.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50...............6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................38 - 40............-24.50.............41 - 33 ..........+28.50............+4.00

 

[Udog]

MNF - Lions at Packers
Tony Mejia

Detroit at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

The schedule commands that the Lions will have the nation?s attention on Monday night. What Matt Patricia?s team does with its opportunity to take over the NFC North lead in mid-October will likely dictate how seriously we all take Detroit going forward.

In some ways, the Lions are the relative we only see on Thanksgiving. We?re happy to give that Honolulu Blue and Silver a hug since it means there?s early football on and everyone is in a good mood, but as the day unfolds, we move on and lose interest. We?ll see where we?re at with all of that in a little over six weeks, but the fact is that the Lions rarely command holding us captive following their annual chance. They haven?t won a playoff game since 1991 and have a 25-year drought going in between division titles, but their start to this season has us stopping to take an early look.

After squandering a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead in winding up tied with the Cardinals, Detroit returned home and pulled off upsets over the Chargers and Eagles before suffering a 34-30 loss to the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes executed a fourth-quarter comeback by getting his team into the end zone with six seconds left. That game was unique because it featured Mahomes failing to throw a single touchdown pass despite a productive day and also because they were able to hang around against an elite offense despite multiple top defensive players being sidelined.

The Lions have gotten healthier during their bye week and can now more easily see the bright side of standing toe-to-toe with a title contender, albeit one that has now dropped consecutive games after being upset by the Colts and Texans the past two Sundays. Had it not been for a 100-yard fumble recovery that Kansas City?s Bashaud Breeland returned for a third-quarter 14-point swing, we could be talking about undefeated Detroit right now in addition to being really worried about the Chiefs.

As they visit Lambeau Field looking to pull off another upset, it?s worth reminding you that the Lions have actually had the Packers? number over the past few seasons and have won four of their last five visits to Green Bay. Patricia went 2-0 against the Pack in his first season and closed out 2018 with the franchise?s first shutout of the Packers since 1973 as Aaron Rodgers left the game with a concussion and ended up sidelined as Green Bay fans were forced to watch Detroit kicker Matt Prater finish with more touchdown passes than backup Deshone Kizer, who has since been traded to the Raiders.

Weird things can happen in rivalry games and this one is the NFL?s longest-running series, featuring at least two meetings per season since 1932. The favored team has actually won and covered in 12 of the last 14 matchups, with Detroit?s Week 17 shutout one of the two anomalies. Check out the recent history below for more details.

Rodgers is healthy again but has had some problems finding a great rhythm in the new offense installed by first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, who was named the full-time replacement to long-time leader Mike McCarthy. All of Detroit?s recent success has come against the maligned coach, who won six division titles and Super Bowl XLV but was blamed for Green Bay?s collapse. We?ll see how they fare against Rodgers and a new offense, but Patricia will also have to hope his own attack can continue to flourish against a defense that has been fantastic under coordinator Mike Pettine.

Green Bay defeated the Cowboys last week 34-24 but had Dallas blanked at the break. They?ve surrendered just three points in their five first-quarters thus far this season, so that?s a trend you might want to get in on given the likelihood that Detroit treads lightly early on the road. Westgate lists the Packers as a half-point favorite for the opening 15 minutes, setting the total at 7.5. For a free trend selection featuring Lions RB Kerryon Johnson, click here.

Although light rain is in the forecast for Green Bay early on Monday, skies are expected to clear by kickoff. Cool temperatures await both teams as it?s supposed to dip into the 30s by the time the second half rolls around, so they?ll hopefully have those ball-warmers functioning.

The Packers look to continue a trend that has seen the favorite win and cover five straight times following the Week 1 doubleheader opener in which the Saints barely survived Houston. For more details, check out VI?s MNF Schedule. To dig into a road trend to watch that can be applied to this NFC North matchup, check out Matt Blunt?s most recent Hot & Not Report.

Rodgers and the offense have scored 20 or more points in four straight games after winning in Chicago 10-3 to kickoff the season. Despite missing top receiver Davante Adams, the Green Bay offense has been able to make due with their remaining pieces thanks to Rodgers' quick decisions under center. Adams has been ruled out again with a toe injury. For more on who's in and who's sidelined, check out the injury report below in addition to all the other gambling goodies.

TOTAL TALK

After watching its first two games cash ?under? tickets, Green Bay comes into this game on a 3-0 run to the ?over? while Detroit has watched the high side cash in three of its first four games.

Despite the current total form for both clubs, the Week 6 finale opened at 46 ? and the number has dropped to 45 ? as of Monday at most betting shops. Totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week?s total in the divisional matchup.

?Backing the ?under? in divisional games has been a great investment and VI expert Matt Blunt pointed that out in last week?s Hot & Not Report. The trend remained in play this Sunday with a 2-1 record to the ?under? and the one ?over? could?ve been anticipated with Carolina and Tampa Bay squaring off in a quick rematch from London after a low-scoring affair in the first encounter back in Week 2,? he said.

David added, ?For this NFC North matchup, the ?over? is on a 6-1 run in this past seven meetings. Coincidentally, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has barely played or sat out three of the last four games against the Lions and his absence is a large reason why Detroit has won its last four games against Green Bay. At home with Rodgers, the Packers have always been traditionally more potent offensively but this year?s squad hasn?t busted the 30-point mark yet. The Lions have seen the ?over? cash in their two road games and those outcomes were helped by both the Detroit offense (27 PPG) and defense (25.5 PPG).?

?My handicapping uses seasonal trends and one angle that fits that approach is with teams playing with rest. Including the Dolphins outcome yesterday, the ?under? has gone 3-0 in games with at least one club off their bye week. Last year, Detroit went ?over? with rest but its five previous games all watched the ?under? connect when the Lions were off the bye and the offense hasn?t been sharp with QB Matthew Stafford. One of those ?under? tickets came against Green Bay, an 18-16 win at Lambeau Field in the 2015 regular season. I?m expecting another tight affair here and I believe the Lions will have trouble breaking 20 points. My lean would be to the ?under? (45 ?) in the game and to the Detroit team total ?under? (20 ?) as well,? said David.

Bettors following the Monday Night Football results have seen the ?under? cash in four of the first six games in this primetime slot.

LINE MOVEMENT

Detroit Lions
Projected season win total: 6.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 11/2
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 40/1 to 30/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 80/1 to 60/1

Green Bay Packers
Projected season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 9/4 to 6/5
Odds to win NFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 20/1 to 16/1

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"The Lions opened as high at +6 and that seemed crazy with how well they have played this season," said Berg, whose excellent observations can be found on Twitter at @PercentBerg. "I'm still not buying this Packers offense. That said, the Lions have always struggled with Green Bay. Public support is heavy for the Packers at -3.5 but sharps bet it to the point where I wouldn't feel comfortable taking +3.5. As usual, the ticket count is 2-1 on the 'over'."

INJURY CONCERNS

While Adams is out, the Packers will get backup RB Jamaal Williams from concussion protocol and also got good news with center Corey Lindsey upgraded to probable. Tackle Bryan Bulaga is also up. The Packers are unlikely to have safety Darnell Savage and CB Tony Brown available but have gotten excellent play in the secondary thus far.

The Lions are going to have top corner Darius Slay back from a hamstring injury and could see the debut of DT DeShawn Hand (elbow). DT Mike Daniels and CB Amani Oruwariye remain sidelined but the Lions are hopeful DT A'Shawn Robinson can return from a knee injury.

Detroit's offense is likely to have top offseason acquisition Danny Amendola in there and is expecting that standout rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson can be cleared from concussion protocol in order to participate.

RECENT MEETINGS

(Lions 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS last 11, OVER 8-3)
12/30/18 Lions 31-0 vs. Packers (DET +7.5, 44.5)
10/7/18 Lions 31-23 at Packers (DET -1, 50)
12/31/17 Lions 35-11 vs. Packers (DET -7.5, 44.5)
11/6/17 Lions 30-17 at Packers (DET - 2.5, 42.5)
1/1/17 Packers 31-24 at Lions (GB -3.5, 50)
9/25/16 Packers 34-27 vs. Lions (GB -6, 47.5)
12/3/15 Packers 27-23 at Lions (GB -3, 46.5)
11/15/15 Lions 18-16 at Packers (DET +10.5, 49.5)
12/28/14 Packers 30-20 at Lions (GB -7, 46.5)
9/21/14 Lions 19-7 at Packers (DET -2.5, 52.5)
11/28/13 Lions 40-10 at Packers (DET -6, 48.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 currently has the Packers as a 7-point home favorite over the Raiders, who will be coming in off a bye after a Week 5 upset of the Bears in London. The Lions will face another NFC North rival as the surging Vikings visit Detroit. The initial line is a pick'em.

 

[Cnotes53]

Books Win Big In Week 6
October 14, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Don?t always believe what you saw last and never believe a team is as bad as their record. Those were a few pieces of advice from some old school guys gave me when I started working in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry from some seasoned veterans regarding the NFL. That theory was never more true than Sunday?s Week 6 NFL action when the Dolphins got their first cover against-the-spread of 2019 in a 17-16 home loss to the Redskins which helped most books to their best day of the season.

?It was a great day,? said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso. ?The Dolphins late comeback kind of set the day for us. It was really the only game I was sweating on the day.?

The Dolphins came in off a bye week, getting outscored by an average of 40-6 in their four losses, but after being down 17-3 they decided to shake things up by replacing starting quarterback Josh Rosen with back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick and he immediately produced some magic as the journeyman has done periodically throughout all his stops in eight different NFL cities. He engineered two late drives and with momentum in their favor, Dolphins head coach rolled the dice with 6 seconds remaining to go for the two-point conversion to win. The Redskins won 17-16 and grabbed their first victory of the season, but they didn?t get the cover after being bet from -3.5 to -6.

NFL teams are are filled with college All-Americans and this is their job. It?s their career and what they strived to be since they were kids. They may be bad, but the number always catches up with them and the true skills and rating of individual players show themselves. If a player shows bad on a losing team in the film room, they won?t be around for long which is why even the worst teams will usually get a max effort from their players because they don?t ever give up despite the public perception that they do.

Another winless team, the 0-4 Jets, came into Week 6 with their starting QB Sam Darnold back after missing their last three games but the perception was there that they would play poorly again, especially with the Cowboys coming in as seven-point road favorites. Not many bettors sided with the Jets.

?Our biggest win of the day was Jets beating the Cowboys, and most of the Cowboys action for us came over the weekend,? MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said of the Jets which paid out at +300 (Wynn) on the money-line in their 24-22 win.

The Dolphins cover and Cowboys loss set the tone for the day and it only got better with each game, except for maybe the Vikings 38-20 home win against the Eagles (+3.5) and the 49ers 20-7 win at the Rams (-3).

?It was a good day for us, but it was odd because we didn?t have a really big decision which at least allowed me to sit back, relax and not really sweat any decision, and many of the decisions fell our way,? said Stoneback.

Things got started on the wrong foot for the house Sunday with the early morning game in London seeing the Panthers (-2) keep rolling behind QB Kyle Allen in their 37-26 win against the Buccaneers.

?Carolina winning the London game started us off as a loser, but the only bad decision we had early with the 49ers because we took lots of sharp action on early in the week,? Stoneback said. ?We had one guy play two games for $100,000 each on the Saints and Dolphins, which got there, but it was still a good day.?

The unbeaten 5-0 San Francisco 49ers are proving their worth as the best team in the NFC and they made a major statement by embarrassing the Rams at the L.A. Coliseum on Sunday. Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda, a Los Angelino, was raving about the 49ers afterwards

?Their (49ers) defense was extremely impressive,? Castaneda said. ?They came through on multiple big occasions. They stymied whatever momentum the Rams tried to muster on home field.?

Running back Todd Gurley didn?t play for the Rams, but it was a beatdown more than the score suggested. The Rams vertical game never got started and they have now dropped to 3-3. Rams QB Jared Goff threw for only 78 yards and that's not a typo folks.

?The 49ers really impressed me playing on the Rams field,? Stoneback said. ?They look to be the class of the NFC so far. When I look at Dallas it kind comes down to who they beat now which wasn?t against good teams as we?re now finding out.?

The Cowboys have now lost three straight to drop to 3-3. After beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins to start 0-3, they?ve lost their last three to solid teams like the Saints, Packers, and now...the Jets.

The favorites would go 3-9 ATS in the 12 Sunday games, and the 1-3 ATS in the late afternoon action helped pad the ledgers for the house with the Cardinals (+3 in 34-33 home win vs Falcons), Broncos (-1 vs Titans in 16-0 win), and Jets all winning. Things got even better late when the Steelers jumped out to 21-0 first-half lead on the Chargers to win 24-17 in a ?Home Field? game facing a third-string QB.

In a recent conversation with Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, we couldn?t think of any NFL team in history where a home-field edge resulted in -1 to the number. When three-quarters of the crowd is cheering for the road team, that?s what happens. Plus, they rarely cover at home. But a third-string QB capturing a road victory in his first career NFL start is a new low and the new stadium in Inglewood won?t change it for the Bolts. San Diego's (real) fans aren?t coming up and there?s only a sprinkle of actual L.A. Chargers fans going to the games.

The Chargers, who looked awful, are a team to rapidly adjust on team and total ratings, and it's not just because of their embarrassing loss on Sunday to the Steelers.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 6
October 14, 2019
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 6 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 4-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 6-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 53-36-1
Against the Spread 36-52-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 40-49-1
Against the Spread 33-55-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 43-47

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jets (+7, ML +280) vs. Cowboys, 24-22
Steelers (+6, ML +230) at Chargers, 24-17
Texans (+3.5, ML +170) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (+3, ML +145) at Rams, 20-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) vs. Falcons, 34-33
Saints (+2.5, ML +130) at Jaguars, 13-6

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-17) vs. Giants, 35-14
Vikings (-3.5) vs. Eagles, 38-20
Panthers (-2) vs. Buccaneers, 37-26

Kyle Style

-- The Carolina Panthers (-2) had to go overseas for a little revenge on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 37-26 score behind QB Kyle Allen, who is quickly becoming a hero in Charlotte. The Panthers were 0-2 SU/ATS after a Week 2 loss against the Bucs at Bank of America Stadium, as QB Cam Newton tried to fight through a foot injury, but couldn't be very effective. After that game the braintrust elected to rest Newton in Week 3 for a game in Arizona, and the rest is history. Allen has led the team to victories in Glendale, Houston, at home in Charlotte, and now in London, going 4-0 SU/ATS since taking over under center in Week 3.

He may or may not be the future in Charlotte, but the more he wins, the more cloudy the future of Newton gets with the Panthers. Carolina now heads into a bye next week, followed by a trip to meet the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers. A win at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, and Newton might not see the field again in 2019.

Teddy Slams

-- The New Orleans Saints were expected to be in trouble after losing QB Drew Brees (thumb) in Week 2 in L.A. The timetable for Brees' return was six-to-eight weeks. Many talking heads felt that if the Saints were able to simply tread water and go 3-3 in the absence of Brees, they'd be positions well for a stretch run to the playoffs. QB Teddy Bridgewater and the defense have had other ideas.

Since losing Brees the Saints have rolled up a 4-0 SU/ATS record, winning on the road in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, at home on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys, at home in a divisional battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and now a grind-it-out road win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-6. The Saints are allowing just 13.3 PPG over the past three games, as the defense has stepped up with the offense a bit inconsistent. They'd done more than tread water without Brees, they have parked themselves in first place atop the NFC South standings. Who would have thought Allen and Bridgewater would be the QBs of the top two teams in the NFC South?

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Houston Texans-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5) battle, one of three games with a line listed over 50. The Texans-Chiefs games was lucky to go over. With 6:17 remaining in regulation, the Texans scored a touchdown to take a 29-24 lead. They went for the two-point conversion and successfully converted, posting a win across the board for the 'over'. The Atlanta Falcons-Arizona Cardinals (52.5) battle had the most total points of any game this weekend, as the Cards won 34-33. There might have been even more points, too, if PK Matt Bryant didn't misfire on an extra point late.

The San Francisco 49ers-Los Angeles Rams (50) divisional battle never came close to threatening the 'over', however, as the 49ers defense continues to be legit. They held QB Jared Goff under 100 passing yards, and it also helped that RB Todd Gurley (thigh) was sidelined. The 49ers won 20-7, and their games are worth watching in future weeks for high lines, as Vegas doesn't seem to trust their defense yet.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Tennessee Titans-Denver Broncos (41) game. The Titans failed to score in the 16-0 loss, and head coach Mike Vrabel pulled QB Marcus Mariota in favor of Ryan Tannehill, but it made no difference. The three games with lines of 42.5 -- New Orleans Saints-Jacksonville Jaguars (19 total points), Washington Redskins-Miami Dolphins (33 total points) and Pittsburgh Steelers-Los Angeles Chargers (41 total points) each hit the 'under'.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 6, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (45.5) battle) pending. The 'over' is 5-13 (27.8%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Cowboys WR Amari Cooper (quadriceps) exited early against the Jets and was unable to return. WRs Tavon Austin and Michael Gallup are tasked with picking up the slack.

-- Seahawks TE Will Dissly (Achilles) exited early against the Browns and was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Chiefs and Broncos hook up on Thursday Night Football, and Kansas City is on a two-game slide, and 0-3 ATS skid. On the flip side, the Broncos have turned things around with two straight wins and covers thanks for a suffocating defense, including a Week 6 shutout.

-- The Jaguars travel to meet the Bengals, and the shine of rookie QB Gardner Minshew has rubbed off a bit for Jacksonville. They're 0-2 SU/ATS over the past two. The Bengals, however, are 0-6 SU/3-3 ATS, and they're averaging a dismal 13.8 PPG, although they have posted 20.0 PPG in two games at home.

-- The Bills are returning from a bye, and they face the winless Dolphins. Buffalo is 4-1 SU/ATS, with their only loss to the Patriots in Week 5. Buffalo has hit the 'under' in all five outings, the only team yet to see an 'over' result. The Dolphins have hit four straight 'under' results, too.

-- The Falcons host the Rams, and Atlanta's defense is in shambles. They have allowed 20 or more points in all six of their games, and 24 or more points in four in a row, and five of six overall. In the past two games Atlanta is averaging 32.5 PPG while allowing 43.0 PPG. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in the past six, and they have failed to cover four in a row.

-- The Texans and Colts square off in Indianapolis. Houston has won four of the past five overall, and they're averaging 42.0 PPG across the past two games while allowing 28.0 PPG. The Colts will be well rested, coming off a bye following their Week 5 win in Kansas City.

-- The Eagles and Cowboys meet on Sunday Night Football, and the Cowboys are on a three-game skid. After opening 3-0 SU/ATS, the Cowboys are 0-3 SU/ATS. The combined record of their first three opponents is 3-14 SU, so perhaps their start wasn't as impressive as it appeared.

-- The Patriots and Jets meet on Monday Night Football, the second meeting of these rivals already this season. The Jets fell 30-14 at Gillette Stadium on Sept. 22 with QB Luke Falk under center. He isn't even with the team any longer, as QB Sam Darnold is back from illness. It will be interesting to see how the Jets build upon their upset of the Cowboys.

 

[Cnotes53]

Mariota, Winston may have cloudy futures
October 14, 2019
By The Associated Press

Marcus Mariota might be out as the starting quarterback in Tennessee, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have to decide how many more interceptions they can afford from Jameis Winston.

For the top two picks in the 2015 draft, the future might not be so bright.

Mariota was pulled in the third quarter of a 16-0 loss to Denver with 63 yards passing, a 9.5 rating, two interceptions and three sacks. Winston made it to the finish of Tampa's 37-26 loss to Carolina in London, but with a career-worst five interceptions - and an oh-by-the-way fumble for a sixth giveaway.

Winston has an NFL-worst 86 giveaways since entering the league and five games with at least four turnovers while no other player has more than two during that span.

''Throw the damn ball away,'' coach Bruce Arians said. ''He has a habit of trying to be Superman. That's been a problem in the past. The fumbles haven't occurred this year until today. But again, trying to make something out of nothing. It's just a matter of knowing when to quit on a play.''

Mariota has a better record (29-32 compared to 23-37) and a slightly better ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, while both have similarly mediocre passer ratings in the high 80s.

The problem for Mariota is that Titans are near the bottom in points and total yards and have been shut out twice since the start of 2018. Ryan Tannehill, a former starter in Miami, replaced Mariota and was 13 of 16 for 144 yards and one interception. He was sacked four times.

''We're not pulling our weight as an offense,'' Mariota said. ''We have to find a way to improve and change that because our defense is playing lights out.''

Titans coach Mike Vrabel didn't want to discuss who would be the starter going forward.

Between Mariota and Winston, Mariota has the only playoff appearance. He won a wild-card game during the 2017 season. Neither has signed a second contract, which means both are in the fifth and final years of their rookie deals.

So both teams have decisions to make in the offseason, if not sooner.

''Sometimes I do want to do great things,'' Winston said. ''But you can do great things but protect the team at the same time.''

FAST START, QUICK FADE

Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams, divisional-round foes last postseason, have matching 3-0 starts followed by three-game losing streaks.

The Cowboys lost to the previously winless New York Jets 24-22 after trailing 21-3 on the road. That was a week after a 34-24 home loss to Green Bay that included a 31-3 deficit.

The slump is a little more surprising from the Rams considering their 24-8 regular-season record the first two years under coach Sean McVay, capped by a Super Bowl appearance last season.

LA's 20-7 loss to undefeated NFC West leader San Francisco gave the Rams three straight losses under McVay for the first time, while the Cowboys have lost three straight for the first time since the first half of star running back Ezekiel Elliott's six-game suspension two years ago.

''Was it a humbling day for us? Absolutely,'' McVay said. ''But it's something that we're going to learn from. We're not going to let it demoralize us. They did a nice job. We didn't do enough collectively.''

Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones was asked about the future of coach Jason Garrett after the stunning loss, brushing it off as something he wasn't even considering. Despite the slide, the Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East and hosting the Eagles next Sunday.

''We're 0-0 right now,'' quarterback Dak Prescott said. ''We have a huge game next week. It's for first in our division. We have to figure out a way to turn this page and focus on exactly that and how do we become a better offense. Everything, as crazy as it is, is still ahead of us.''

PERFECT WITHOUT BREES

For the third time in four starts filling in for Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater had modest numbers. The New Orleans Saints don't care. They're 4-0 without the NFL's all-time passing leader, and that much closer to getting him back from a torn thumb ligament.

The initial diagnosis was six weeks for Brees, which means the club probably will face a decision after next week's visit to Chicago. The Saints (5-1) play Arizona at home on Oct. 27 before their open week.

New Orleans handed Dallas its first loss in Week 4 without scoring a touchdown, then didn't allow Jacksonville a TD in Sunday's 13-6 victory. The only touchdown was Bridgewater's tiebreaking TD toss to Jared Cook early in the fourth quarter.

''Each week we just talk about how do we win that game,'' Payton said. ''Honestly, in a week or two weeks from now, we're not going to look specifically to how we win certain games.''

Yeah, because Brees will be back somewhere in there.

HOT UP NORTH

Minnesota's 38-20 victory over the Eagles gives the NFC North a chance to be the only division with four winning teams through six weeks, while it ended up leaving the NFC East without a team above .500.

If Detroit beats Green Bay on Monday night, the Vikings (4-2) and Packers (currently 3-2) would be tied for the division lead, followed closely by the Lions (currently 2-1-1) and defending NFC North champion Chicago (3-2).

 

[Cnotes53]

Rams' once-elite offense smashed
October 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) The Los Angeles Rams dazzled the NFL with inventive, exciting offensive football during their first two seasons under coach Sean McVay.

Six games after it got embarrassed in the Super Bowl, McVay's high-flying offense has definitely crashed back down to earth.

The San Francisco 49ers emphasized that Sunday in a dominant defensive performance during their 20-7 victory at the Coliseum. Jared Goff passed for a career-low 78 yards, and the Rams (3-3) managed just 157 net yards while the Niners (5-0) leaped well ahead of the two-time defending division champions in the NFC West standings.

Los Angeles scored a touchdown on its opening drive, but was shut out thereafter. For a team that averaged 32.9 points and 421 yards per game last season, everything about it was a shocker.

''Was it a humbling day for us? Absolutely,'' McVay said. ''But it's something that we're going to learn from. We're not going to let it demoralize us. They did a nice job. We didn't do enough collectively.''

The league is no longer dazzled by the Rams, who have lost three straight games for the first time in McVay's tenure. Todd Gurley's absence with a bruised thigh was a setback, but hardly a decisive factor in this comprehensively poor effort.

Los Angeles produced a measly 3.1 yards per play against the Niners - and McVay's offense only managed to run 50 plays while controlling the ball for just over 21 minutes, going 0-for-9 on third down and 0-for-4 on fourth down.

When Goff hit Gerald Everett for a 12-yard gain with 3:16 to play, it was the Rams' longest passing play of the day.

''Teams have made adjustments to our offense, and we've just got to be better and make some adjustments as well,'' said receiver Robert Woods, who was held without a catch.

Nobody could blame the defense for the Rams' rough performance in this division game. Los Angeles held the Niners to two touchdowns, and one came on a short field created by rookie running back Darrell Henderson's fumble.

The roster that remained remarkably injury-free for two seasons is missing several key contributors - none bigger than Gurley, who couldn't go after getting hurt 10 days ago. Malcolm Brown and Henderson provided solid moments in the running game, but they aren't pass-catching threats on Gurley's level.

The Rams also lost left guard Joe Noteboom to a right knee injury early in the game. Backup Jamil Demby appeared to perform creditably, but it's clear the Rams' line isn't remotely as effective as it was last season, when it was one of the NFL's best.

''Right now we're in that little hole of trying to figure out how to overcome those (injuries),'' left tackle Andrew Whitworth said. ''And it's something really, honestly, this team hasn't done in the last couple of years. We haven't had that. We've stayed really healthy, so it's a new experience, and guys are going to have to continue to fight and keep our heads down and find ways to overcome it.''

San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh even illuminated the depth of the Rams' struggles when he declined to use a front with six defenders at the line of scrimmage and one linebacker focused on taking away Los Angeles' running game.

''We felt good going into this game about our ability to stop the run with our front, just our front, without having to do anything like that 6-1 that other teams have been giving them,'' Saleh said. ''It was good by them, the way they came out on that first drive, but the guys did a really good job adjusting.''

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DET at GB 08:15 PM

DET +3.5

U 47.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Lions blow late lead in 23-22 loss to Packers
October 15, 2019
By The Associated Press

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions had a chance to build a big lead in the first half.

They had a chance to put it away in the second half.

When they left the door open for the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers took over.

Detroit settled for five Matt Prater field goals and Lions defensive end Trey Flowers was whistled for a costly penalty on each of Green Bay's last two drives, helping the Packers rally for a 23-22 victory Monday night.

The Lions were in position for a big NFC North road win after they opened a 22-13 lead with 12:17 remaining. Prater connected from 54 yards after Justin Coleman intercepted a Rodgers pass that went off Darrius Shepherd's facemask at the Lions 2.

But Detroit (2-2-1) was shut out the rest of the way, and Rodgers led the Packers on two scoring drives.

First, Rodgers threw a gorgeous 35-yard touchdown pass to Allen Lazard with 9:03 remaining. The Lions sacked Rodgers on third down earlier in the drive, but the Packers were awarded a first down when Flowers was flagged for illegal use of hands.

Green Bay (5-1) got the ball back with 6:46 left and went on a 14-play drive that ended with Mason Crosby's 23-yard field goal as time expired. Flowers had another illegal-use-of-hands penalty that helped the division-leading Packers run out the clock.

Detroit wasted a fast start. Kerryon Johnson's 1-yard touchdown run helped the Lions build a 13-0 lead in the second quarter.

Green Bay got on the board on Rodgers' 5-yard TD pass to Jamaal Williams midway through the second quarter. The Packers were lining up for a field goal when the Lions were penalized for having too many men on the field, giving Rodgers and company another shot.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/14/2019.......2-0-0.........100.00%.............+10.00
10/13/2019...11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/10/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%..............-11.00
10/07/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%............+10.00
10/06/2019....11-11-0...........50.00%...............-5.50
10/03/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............90-80-1.......... 52.94%............ +10.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/14/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0............+5.00.............+10.00
10/13/2019.............6 - 5...........+2.50................5 - 6.............-3.00.............-0.50
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1.............-5.50.............-11.00
10/07/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00............+10.00
10/06/2019.............5 - 7...........-13.50...............6 - 4..............+8.00.............-5.50
10/03/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-0.50
09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................39 - 40............-19.50.............42 - 33 ..........+33.50............+14.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Interesting college football games on this week?s card:

? Florida State @ Wake Forest (-2)

? NC State (-2.5) @ Boston College

? Oregon (-3) @ Washington

? Arizona @ USC (-9)

? Florida (-5) @ South Carolina

? Baylor @ Oklahoma State (-3.5)


**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??.

13) Watching the Rams? ugly performance in Sunday?s loss to San Francisco, it dawned on me that I should research how other teams have done the year after losing the Super Bowl.

From 2001-08, only one of eight Super Bowl losers made the playoffs again the next year, but from 2009-18, nine of ten teams did make the playoffs, even going 6-3 SU in their first playoff game that second season. Only one of those teams (NE 2018) got back to the Super Bowl.

We?ve talked a lot here about how competitive the NFL is, and lot of small things have to go in your favor for a team to have success; I?m guessing the schedule makers are also less forgiving to the conference champs. Success is fragile, that much we know.

12) I?ll say this; enjoy success while you can. Detroit Lions won three NFL titles in the 50?s, but have never made it to a Super Bowl, and haven?t won a playoff game since 1991.

11) If I was an NFL coach and my 3rd-string QB was making his first NFL start, I?d want my Hall of Fame QB (who is currently hurt) to go on that road trip, to help mentor the rookie QB.

But Ben Roethlisberger didn?t go to LA this weekend; coach Tomlin simply said ?Injured players don?t make road trips?

10) San Diego is the 8th-largest city in America; why did the Chargers leave there? It makes no sense to me; what happens if they don?t sell a decent amount of tickets in the new LA dome next year? Can they go back to San Diego?

Can?t be much fun for the Charger players, when fans at their ?home? games are mostly rooting for the other team.

9) Underdogs went 9-3 ATS Sunday; gambling is difficult.

8) Jay Gruden said over the weekend that coaches without final say over his team?s roster have to manage different staff and roster dynamics; ?That?s the hardest part of coaching in the National Football League, in my opinion.?

That from a guy who just got fired, so he would know.

7) Back when I was in college 40 or so years ago, I got mononucleosis and was off the grid for 2-3 weeks; can?t remember how much weight I lost, but I do remember that I was 168 scrawny pounds when I went back to school, having probably lost around 20 pounds. Many moons ago, and if you know me, there was no problem regaining all that weight.

Was surprised to read that Sam Darnold only lost three or four pounds during his bout with mono. Protein shakes must do the trick; he played really well against Dallas Sunday.

6) One thing the NFL need to fix is how over-officiated their games are; former refs are TV stars now, pass interference instant replay is a joke (they almost never overturn a PI call/non-call), there is a flag thrown on most every kick return. Stop throwing so many flags!!!!

One thing bugs me a lot; stop calling taunting penalties!!! Or if you call them, just throw a flag, call it on both sides as a warning for guys to STFU, and move on. Coaches will tell guys to shut up and the game can go on. No one pays to watch the officials.

When Carson Wentz blew his knee out two years ago, it happened on a drive that should?ve ended three plays earlier, but the ref called a taunting penalty on a DB after a failed third down play. Eagles would?ve kicked a FG had the taunting penalty not been called, and Wentz wouldn?t have gotten hurt.

5) Quarterbacks and guys who run with/catch the ball get all the credit, but if your offensive line isn?t strong, your offense has no chance, especially if the QB isn?t mobile. When an OL struggles, people are quick to point fingers, but they?re reluctant to give credit in the good times.

4) Couple of quick NFL trends:
? Chiefs covered 11 of their last 13 AFC West road games.
? Last 12 times Tennessee failed to cover consecutive games, they went 11-1 ATS in the third game.

3) NFL TV ratings are up 6% so far this season.

2) Philip Rivers? career record against the spread:
? As a favorite: 64-71-3
? As an underdog or pick ?em: 41-31-3

1) Packers 23, Lions 22
? Detroit got inside Packers? 10-yard line on first three drives, scored 13 points.
? Lions are 2-2-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio.
? Loss ends Detroit?s 4-game series win streak.

? Green Bay won despite a minus-3 turnover ratio (0-3).
? Packers outgained Detroit 447-229, but scored only 13 points on four red zone drives.
? Lions lost despite a 12-yard advantage in field position.