CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Udog]

NFC Divisional Notes

Minnesota at San Francisco

Saturday, Jan. 11 (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Vikings Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
49ers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Minnesota: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-2-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Vikings defeated the Saints 26-20 in their Wild Card matchup, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out San Francisco as a seven-point home favorite with a total of 45 ?. Early money came in on the Vikings and the currently line is 49ers -6 ? while the ?over/under? has held in check.

2019 Off the Bye

San Francisco defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ?bye? week and that snapped an eight-game winless streak (0-7-1) for the 49ers when playing with rest. It was also the first win for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan when playing with rest since he took over the team in 2017 after starting 0-2.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and Minnesota stopped San Francisco 24-16 as a six-point home favorite. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo tossed a career-high three interceptions in that loss while his counterpart Kirk Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win for the Vikings.

Minnesota dropped a 37-30 loss to Seattle in Week 13 on Monday Night Football. Including that loss, the Vikings have lost three of their last four encounters against NFC West foes and they haven?t captured a road win against this division since 2004.

San Francisco blitzed Green Bay 37-8 as a three-point home favorite in Week 11. Prior to that win, the 49ers went 1-3 in the 2018 regular season when matched up against the NFC North but Garropolo missed two of those games due to injury.

Playoff Notes

Minnesota?s win over New Orleans on Sunday was the first road playoff victory for the club since 2005. The win pushed head coach Mike Zimmer?s record to 2-2 overall in the postseason. The last appearance for the Vikings in the Divisional Playoff round came in 2017 and it snuck past the Saints 29-24 with a late touchdown reception. Cousins owns a 1-1 career playoff record as a starter.

San Francisco hasn?t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season. The club won its first two games on the road but came up short to Seattle (17-23) in the NFC Championship game. This will be the first career playoff start for Garropolo.

This will be the first playoff game for Shanahan but he does have experience in the postseason as a coordinator, most recently with Atlanta in 2016. The Falcons averaged 36 PPG during that playoff run, but the offense took the blame in their Super Bowl LI loss (28-34) to the Patriots when they were held to just seven points in the second-half.

Total Notes

Prior to Sunday?s ?under? result versus New Orleans, Minnesota was on a 5-0 ?over? run in its last five away games. Since being held to 16 and 6 points to divisional foes in the Packers and Bears respectively in September, the Minnesota offense has averaged 30.8 PPG in its last seven as a visitor.

San Francisco started the season with a 5-1 ?under? run before closing on a 7-2-1 ?over? surge. The Niners played their first eight games of the season against non-playoff teams before losing to Seattle (24-27) in Week 10. Make a note that All-Pro tight end George Kittle was ?out? for San Francisco in that setback to the Seahawks.

At home, the ?over? went 5-3 for the 49ers behind the top-ranked scoring offense at home this season with 32.4 PPG. As mentioned above, they scored 31 when playing with rest but the ?under? has gone 3-0 in games played after the ?bye? for San Francisco under Shanahan.

Minnesota has watched the ?under? go 3-2 in its last five postseason games, which includes the Wild Card result this past weekend at New Orleans. The 49ers have watched the ?under? go 3-0 in their last postseason appearance (2013-14).

Going back to 2003, the ?under? is on a 6-1 run in this head-to-head series.


Seattle at Green Bay

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Seahawks Road Record:
7-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 4-4-1 O/U
Packers Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Seattle: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U
Green Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

Opening Odds

The Superbook opened Green as a 3 ?-point favorite and the Packers were pushed up quickly to -4. The total dropped from 47 to 46.

Off the Bye

The Packers have lost their last three regular season games after their ?bye? week. Two of those defeats came on the road, which includes a humbling 37-8 loss at San Francisco this season in Week 12 on Sunday Night Football.

Head-to-Head

This series has been one-sided to the home team with the host winning the last eight encounters between the pair. The most recent meeting took place in the 2018 regular season when Seattle defeated Green Bay 27-24 as a three-point home favorite. Prior to that game, the Packers had won three straight games against the Seahawks. The pair met in the 2014-15 playoffs and Seattle pulled off an improbable 28-22 comeback victory at home over Green Bay.

Including that outcome, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 all-time against Seattle and all four of the losses came at CenturyLink Field. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-3 in his career against Green Bay but he?s 0-3 in his career at Lambeau Field and those teams were held to 17, 10 and 9 points.

Seattle has won four straight against the NFC North while Green Bay is on a 0-4 skid versus teams from the NFC West.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay hasn?t been in the playoffs since 2016 when they won its first two games before falling to Atlanta 44-21 in the NFC Championship. This will be the playoff coaching debut for Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers owns a 9-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter and that includes a 3-2 mark at home.

Wilson improved to 9-5 in the playoffs in Sunday?s 17-9 Wild Card win at Philadelphia. That victory snapped a three-game road losing streak in the playoffs for the Seahawks. Since he took over as a starter in 2012, Wilson is 2-4 away from home in the postseason and that doesn?t include his 1-1 record in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

Seattle has tallied the most road wins (8-1) in the NFL this season and the defense has traveled well (19.7 PPG). That effort has helped the ?under? go 5-4.

Green Bay?s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ?over? started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ?under? produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. The offense only averaged 20.1 PPG during this span while the defense held opponents to 18.8 PPG. The ?under? went 5-3 at Lambeau Field and that includes a 3-0 run entering the playoffs.

The Packers have watched the ?over? go 5-1 in their last six playoff games, five of those contests taking place on the road. In the lone home game, the Packers put up 38 points during the 2016 postseason.

Seattle has seen the ?over? go 4-3 in its last seven road playoff games with Wilson at QB. The defense has looked sharp in three wins over this span, allowing 10.6 PPG. However, the unit has surrendered 30.3 PPG in four losses.

The Texans have seen the ?under? go 2-1 in their last three road games versus the AFC West and the defense has only allowed 20.3 PPG. The Chiefs saw the ?over? go 3-1 against AFC South teams this season.

Sticking with the ?bye? factor above, Kansas City has outscored opponents 74-12 in its last two games at home when playing with rest.

 

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - DP Angles
Matt Blunt

Week of January 6th

Wildcard Weekend is in the books, and with both No. 6 seeds advancing, knocking off two future Hall-of-Fame QB's at home in the process, it makes for a changing of the guard the rest of the way. There are only two starting QB's left of the eight remaining teams that have played in a Super Bowl before, and after next week that number will be down to one with the Seahawks and Packers meeting in Green Bay.

But with just three weeks left in the season before a new champion is crowned, I thought it best to take a look back at a couple of different statistical categories that may not have a direct correlation to playoff success from the Divisional Round on, but have performed fairly well over the years.

So do what you will with this information going forward, but it won't be hard to see if it continues to follow suit. Although maybe the changing of the guard we've seen with the old guard at QB going down could apply to how bettors approach the rest of the NFL playoffs as well.

Who's Hot

During the past three years, from the Divisional Round on, backing the team that finished the regular season with a Turnover Margin per game that was at least 0.2 better than their opponent has gone 15-2 ATS

Turnovers are something that are hard to handicap, but if a team's been on the positive side of them all year long, that tends to hold true in the playoffs. Using a margin of +0.2 or better helps eliminate some potential rounding errors if you were to look at say, giveaways and takeaways per game, so that's why I went with that.

A 15-2 ATS record does mean it's not applied to four different games over the past years (4 Div games +2 Conf +1 Super Bowl). Last year's AFC Championship and Super Bowl were two of those four occurrences with the Chiefs and Patriots being tied in turnover margin per game at +0.6, and with the Rams checking in at +0.7, the difference of 0.1 between them and New England doesn't fit.

The other omissions here were the ?Minneapolis Miracle? game between the Saints and Vikings after the 2017 season (New Orleans was 0.1 better then Minnesota that year and the Saints did end up covering that game by the hook), and the Super Bowl between New England and Atlanta. That Super Bowl fell into the same scenario as the ?Minneapolis Miracle? with New England being 0.1 better in turnover margin per game and ultimately covering the spread.

What that does ultimately mean as well, is that if you just want to take the team that finished the regular season with the better turnover margin per game, you'd still be sitting with a 17-3 ATS record in this span, with the Chiefs-Patriots game last year being the only one that doesn't apply. Turnovers might be somewhat random, but a run like this does put a bit of a crack in that argument.

It hasn't always worked as well during Wildcard Weekend, as evidenced by the two best teams in turnover margin per game this season being eliminated (New England and New Orleans), while Buffalo was the other Wildcard team to fall while facing a team with a worst number in this stat. But, with the cream rising to the top from the Divisional Round and beyond, this regular season turnover margin stat is something to consider.

And looking forward for the Divisional games next weekend, we've got Minnesota (+0.8) vs San Francisco (+0.2), Tennessee (+0.4) vs Baltimore (+0.6), Houston (0.0) vs Kansas City (+0.5), and Seattle (+0.8) vs Green Bay (+0.8).

Those would suggest that backing Minnesota, Baltimore, and Kansas City next week should result in a profitable outcome should this trend hold, with the Seahawks/Packers game not applicable given their dead heat. Whether or not that's how it plays out remains to be seen, but if you are looking for a bit more support in supporting one of those sides you may already like, don't shy away from this data.


Who's Not

Expecting teams with a regular season point differential that wasn't +100 or better to make the Super Bowl; Only seven of 32 Super Bowl teams with a point differential of +99 or less since the 2003-04 season have made the big game

This trend was a little hard to formulate the correct statement for, because in other words, you really want to expect teams that finished the year with a point differential of +100 or better to be involved in the Super Bowl. In fact, since that 2003-04 season (the New England/Carolina Super Bowl), there has been at least one team involved in Super Bowl that did finish the year with a +100 or better point differential.

Taking it a bit further, you generally want to back teams that finished 1st or 2nd in their conference in point differential to go all the way, as the last time we had a Super Bowl game that didn't involve the at least one of the Top 2 teams from their conference in this category was back in 2008-09 season when Pittsburgh (who was 3rd in the AFC in point differential) beat Arizona (who was dead last among NFC playoff teams that year). That's 10 straight Super Bowls of having at least one of the top two teams in this category (among playoff teams) go all the way.

What that means for this year, is that Baltimore (+249 for 1st in AFC) and San Francisco (+169 for 1st in NFC) are on the fast track to be Super Bowl bound. As the respective #1 seeds in both conferences, that's not exactly a ground breaking statement, but before last year's game when the Patriots and Rams came in ranked 2nd in point differential in their respective conferences, the last time we didn't have at least one top ranked team in their conference in point differential in the Super Bowl, was oddly enough, the Baltimore/San Francisco Super Bowl after the 2012 season. In fact, at least one of the top teams in their respective conferences has made the Super Bowl in 12 of those 16 Super Bowls.

More importantly, with 16 different combinations left for this year's Super Bowl, what this trend does suggest is that we will NOT see a Super Bowl between Green Bay (+63) and Houston (-7), Green Bay (+63) and Tennessee (+71), Seattle (+7) and Houston (-7) or Seattle and Tennessee (+71).

Sure, one of these teams could go the distance, and I actually believe one will, but they'll likely be up against a powerhouse from this year, as the rest of teams, and historically at least one Super Bowl team has had a point differential of +100 or better.

Oh and for those that are curious, the sub-100 point differential team I do believe will go the distance this year are the Green Bay Packers. And the team that I hope they'll be up against is the team in the AFC I've liked since the summer; the Kansas City Chiefs (+143 point differential).

State Farm Super Bowl here we come.

 

[Udog]

301MINNESOTA -302 SAN FRANCISCO
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (10 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

303TENNESSEE -304 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

305HOUSTON -306 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (9.2 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

307SEATTLE -308 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 39-14 ATS (23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.




NFL
Long Sheet

Divisional Round

Saturday, January 11

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MINNESOTA (11 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 3) - 1/11/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (10 - 7) at BALTIMORE (14 - 2) - 1/11/2020, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 124-158 ATS (-49.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 12

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HOUSTON (11 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (12 - 4) - 1/12/2020, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (12 - 5) at GREEN BAY (13 - 3) - 1/12/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 116-84 ATS (+23.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 199-144 ATS (+40.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-48 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Divisional Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 11

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 13 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Minnesota is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Baltimore's last 12 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Tennessee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 11 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore


Sunday, January 12

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay


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[Udog]

NFL playoffs divisional round opening odds and early action: Chiefs draw quick money vs Texans
Patrick Everson

A wild Wild Card Weekend ? featuring two overtime games and the dethroning of the defending Super Bowl champion ? gives way to the NFL?s divisional playoff round. We check in on the opening odds and early action for all four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

No. 4 seed Houston barely survived its Saturday wild-card game to advance to this AFC showdown. The Texans (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) laid a goose egg for nearly three quarters, falling behind No. 5 Buffalo 16-0, before rallying to tie it at 19 and force overtime. Bill O?Brien?s troops then squeaked out a 22-19 win and cover as 2.5-point home favorites Saturday.

Kansas City won its regular-season finale and grabbed the No. 2 seed and a bye when New England lost to Miami in Week 17. The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) topped the Los Angeles Chargers 31-21 for a sixth consecutive SU win, though they pushed as 10-point favorites, halting a five-game spread-covering run.

This game, with a 3:05 p.m. ET start Sunday, has seen the most early movement.

?We opened the Chiefs -7.5 and have been bet up,? Murray said of a line that posted late Saturday evening and reached -9.5 by Sunday morning. ?The Chiefs will close any parlays that are left from the first two favorites (on Saturday). The books will need Houston pretty big on Sunday.?

Houston went on the road in Week 6 and beat Kansas City 31-24 as a 3.5-point pup.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Sixth-seeded Minnesota is the surprise guest at the NFC divisional-round party after an upset win in the wild-card round. The Vikings (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) went to New Orleans as 7.5-point underdogs Sunday and emerged with a 26-20 overtime victory, knocking out the Saints for the second time in three years.

Meanwhile, San Francisco rested up as the No. 1 seed, giving it a bye and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The 49ers (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) capped the regular season with a big win over rival Seattle, 26-21 laying 3.5 points on the road.

?The Vikings will see a lot of support off that upset of New Orleans,? Murray said, noting the first move on this 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday game was tightening the Niners to -6.5. ?The Saints really gave that game away. The 49ers will be in their share of teasers and parlays, but not as many as the two AFC favorites.?

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)

Tennessee, the AFC?s sixth seed, also sent a little shockwave around the league by upending the reigning Super Bowl champ. The Titans (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) fended off No. 3 seed New England 20-13 as 4.5-point road pups Saturday.

Baltimore hasn?t lost a game since September, nabbing the AFC?s No. 1 seed and a bye week in the process. The Ravens (14-2 SU, 10-6 ATS) finished with a 28-10 victory over Pittsburgh as 2-point home ?dogs, despite playing a host of backups in what was a meaningless Week 17 game for John Harbaugh?s squad.

?The Ravens will be in every moneyline parlay, every parlay and every teaser,? Murray said of anticipated action for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest. ?Baltimore has been on cruise control for the last couple of months, and there?s nobody left that they wouldn?t be a big favorite against.?

That said, the first move in this line was a tick down to Baltimore -9.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Seattle blew a shot at a postseason bye and a divisional home game by falling short to San Francisco in Week 17, but bounced back just fine on Wild Card Weekend. The fifth-seeded Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) beat No. 4 Philadelphia 17-9 catching 1 point on the road Sunday.

Green Bay won its last five games to snare the NFC?s No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. The Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) edged Detroit 23-20 at Detroit on a final-seconds field goal, falling well short of cashing as hefty 13.5-point favorites in Week 17.

?The Packers were one of the big winners this weekend,? Murray said. ?They would?ve been a small ?dog to New Orleans and now host a Seattle team that caught a break of its own, with Carson Wentz going down in the wild-card game. This will be the most-divided game of the weekend.?

The line moved from Packers -3.5 to -4 early Sunday evening. This matchup is the last of the divisional round, with a 6:40 p.m. ET kickoff next Sunday.

 

[Udog]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Divisional Round odds: Go grab the total for this ground game
Jason Logan

The Titans have a very run-heavy offense which could soak up the play clock and keep the dangerous Baltimore offense off the the field in their Divisional Round matchup this weekend.

The NFL playoffs roll into the Divisional Round, where the betting markets reacts to the Wild Card results, forcing some interesting movement versus teams that earned a bye week in the opening round.

Getting the best of the number is vital in the postseason and with only four games on the board, bookmakers have plenty of time to fine tune the lines before kickoff. Covers? senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the opening odds and early action, giving you his Bet Now/Bet Later sides and totals for this weekend?s divisional matchups.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+4) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

There are plenty of people down on the Packers and the fact that Green Bay enjoyed a first-round bye after a 13-3 SU record built on the back on softer opposition. Books opened the Cheeseheads at the dead number of -4 hosting the Seahawks, giving themselves some breathing room to move off action.

While most books are sticking to Green Bay -4, the juice on the pointspread is trending towards a move to -3.5 at some online markets as of Monday morning. Seattle was able to escape Philadelphia with a 17-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game with a concussion after only two series.

If you like the Seahawks to cover in Lambeau this Sunday, grab all the points you can with Seattle right now. The Packers were able to slow down the Vikings offense in Week 16, but this defense hasn?t faced many challenges down the stretch. The banged-up Seahawks could also return some key bodies on the offensive line as well (Duane Brown and Mike Iupati), so try to stay ahead of those injury updates.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: HOUSTON TEXANS (+10) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Houston?s Wild Card Weekend win over Buffalo wasn?t pretty. There were bad decisions made by both teams on the field and the sideline but in the end, the Texans were able to get on the back of QB Deshaun Watson and squeeze one out in overtime.

This line opened as low as Houston +7.5 (most at +8) visiting the Chiefs but that quickly moved as high as +10 and many books are dealing a double-digit spread for this Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The Chiefs enjoyed a first-round bye and, as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, get to host this game at Arrowhead, which will be deafening come Sunday.

The Texans did earn a 31-24 victory over the Chiefs in K.C. back in Week 6 but Kansas City finished the season on a six-game winning run and posted a 5-0-1 ATS record in that span, playing its best football to finish the schedule. While this line made a big move, pushing from the dead number of -8 to -10 isn?t as risky. Houston backers can grab +10 and wait it out to see if you can get +10.5 once the public plays the Chiefs.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

The total for Titans at Ravens opened as big as 48.5 and is on the way down, with the number dipping as low as 47 at some books. Both teams put up a pile of points in the second half of the schedule, but postseason football is a different beast.

Tennessee is coming of a grinding win over New England, in which it handed the ball off more than 70 percent of the time and controlled the clock for over 31 minutes. The Titans must take a similar approach this Saturday, pounding the Baltimore defense with RB Derrick Henry and keeping MVP Lamar Jackson on the sideline.

When the Ravens do get the ball, there?s no secret to their game plan. This playbook went with the run on more than 56 percent of its play calls this season, which should keep the game clock draining and leave little time for scoring.

Beyond the offenses, both teams have solid stop units as well. Tennessee handcuffed Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Wild Card Round and Baltimore allowed just four opponents to score more than 20 points all season. If you?re on the Under, get in on this number now.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Behind a methodical rushing game (almost 37 minutes in TOP) and persistent pass rush, the Vikings defense looked good against the Saints, at least in the first three quarters of Sunday?s Wild Card game. Then, New Orleans stormed back and forced overtime.

San Francisco is very much cut from a similar cloth: control time and tempo with the run and disrupt the passing game with a rush that racked up 48 sacks on the season. That said, the Niners gave up some bigger offensive numbers in December and finished 3-1-1 Over/Under in the final five games.

Minnesota?s defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and got beat up on the road, allowing almost five points more per game as a visitor. This Over/Under opened 45.5 and has come down a tick to 45 points (even flashed a 44.5 at one book). If you think there are more points in store for this NFC Divisional Round battle in the Bay, take your time and see if you can land something sub-45.

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


COOKING IN THE BAY

Dalvin Cook looked healthy, racking up 120 total yards and two touchdowns in the Wild Card win over the Saints. Minnesota fed its workhorse running back, as Cook amassed 31 touches - a trend we hope carries into this weekend versus the San Francisco 49ers.

The Niners have an exceptional pass defense ? the second-best in the league ? which leaves Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota offense to try to exploit San Fran?s No. 11 rush defense, which allowed a middle-of-the-pack 113 yards rushing per game over the course of the year.

Cook will be going from turf to grass this week which helps the Minnesota RB. Cook?s splits favor grass over turf: 4.77 yards per carry and 10.16 yards per reception on grass versus 4.54 ypc and 8.52 ypr indoors.

With the Niners giving up the fewest passing yards to running backs, we're going to avoid Cook?s total yards and instead take the Over on his 80.5 rushing yards as the Minny RB has averaged 107.5 rushing yards per game against Top-10 teams this year.


TAKING HENRY OUT OF THE EQUATION

The Baltimore Ravens have come out of the gates strong this year, leading the league in first-quarter points at eight per game. The Ravens scored 22 times in the first quarter in 2019 with 16 of those being touchdowns. Baltimore will have its hands full with Derrick Henry, but if Lamar Jackson & Co. can jump out to an early lead, they could force Mike Vrabel and the offense to lean on the pass a bit more than they are used to. Tennessee finished last in the league in pass attempts per game over the final three weeks of the regular season.

Now that it's not his birthday and that Henry's hype is at its peak, Saturday night might be a great time to fade the league?s best rusher as his stock has never been higher.

The Ravens have allowed 101.2 rushing yards per game to opposing teams at home, which is the sixth-lowest production and included five Top-15 DVOA rushing offenses. We're taking a stab and fading the league?s leading rusher. Take Henry?s 93.5 rush yards and hit the Under.

If you want to somewhat hedge against yourself and against the elite skills of the Titans? RB, look at Henry?s Over 0.5 rushing TDs for a very reasonable -117. Henry has scored a rushing touchdown AND been held to Under 93 rushing yards six times this year.


WORST PASSING D IN PLAYOFFS

The Houston Texans are going from seeing Josh Allen in the pocket to the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes. This is a serious worry for a Houston secondary that gave up 266.4 passing yards during the season (fourth-most) and even more on the road at 293.4 yards (second-most).

Although Mahomes hasn?t looked like his 2018-self since the injury ? over 260 yards just twice since Week 11 ? the added rest will only help the K.C. QB, who averaged 276 yards passing at Arrowhead Stadium this season. Over the last five weeks of the regular season, Houston allowed 300-plus yards passing three times.

With RB Damien Williams receiving plenty of looks through the air and Houston giving up the fifth-most passing yards to RBs, these extra gains should help us push Mahomes? passing total north of 298.5 yards - a total we're taking the Over on.


ONCE DESHAUN A TIME

We cashed last weekend with a Russell Wilson Over rushing total and are setting our sights on this weekend?s second-best running quarterback. Last week, Houston QB Deshaun Watson took off a season-high 14 times which he turned into 55 yards ? with a long of 20 yards. Even leading up to the playoffs, with his team?s postseason survival at stake, Watson used his legs to get things done, averaging 6.7 rushes for 37.7 yards from Weeks 15 through 17.

Back in Week 6, Watson terrorized the Chiefs on the ground, racking up two rushing TDs on 42 yards on 10 carries. With the game on the line, Watson knows how to extend the plays and get yards - something he might have to do a lot if Houston trails early and throughout this game. We're backing the Over on Watson?s rushing total of 30.5 yards and putting a little something on his Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Divisional Round


Saturday, January 11

Minnesota @ San Francisco

Game 301-302
January 11, 2020 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
136.463
San Francisco
136.639
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
Even
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+7); Over

Tennessee @ Baltimore

Game 303-304
January 11, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
140.638
Baltimore
146.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+9); Over


Sunday, January 12

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 305-306
January 12, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.014
Kansas City
144.650
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 14 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-9 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Green Bay

Game 305-306
January 12, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
130.801
Green Bay
138.127
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Under

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


MARK MY WORDS

The Baltimore Ravens scored more touchdowns by tight ends than any other team in the league, finishing the year with 14. Most of that production was done by the Ravens? Mark Andrews who led the league?s highest-scoring offense in targets, catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. Andrews averaged 62.9 yards per game (7th) and 14.2 yards per reception (4th) at home this year.

The Baltimore weapon will face a Titans defense that gave up 57.8 yards per game (12th-most) to opposing TEs and allowed five opposing TEs to eclipse their season averages over the last six weeks.

We are buying Over shares of Andrews? yardage total of 49.5, as he is 5-2 O/U on that total over his last seven games and we don?t think his ?limited? practice tag is of any major concern.


AARON TO AARON

Aaron Jones is a big reason the Green Bay Packers are hosting a Divisional playoff game. Jones was second in the league in touchdowns with 16 and averaged nearly 100 total yards a game. Part of his success was his role in the passing game as the Green Bay running back had three or more catches eight times and put up nearly 30 yards receiving a game.

The Seattle Seahawks have been burned by opposing running backs on the ground (167 yards per game in Weeks 15-17) and through the air (61 receiving yards in Weeks 15-17) of late. With Seattle giving up just 1.1 passing TDs per game (4th-fewest) and forcing 0.9 interceptions per game (6th-most) this year, Aaron Rodgers might need to look underneath a bit more on Sunday night.

We are jumping on the Over 24.5 receiving yards for Jones as he is averaged 33.7 yards receiving in all 13 of Green Bay?s wins this year.


SATURDAY 6-POINT TEASER

For the second week in a row, we are spoiled with a Saturday and Sunday filled with playoff football that doesn?t involve hopping around to different games ? the perfect schedule. We are looking to tease both Saturday games and find the best bet that will hopefully keep us alive with action throughout the day, as well as earning close to double our bet.

With the line sitting at Minnesota +7 as of Wednesday night, we are going to push that to +13 and take a very underappreciated Vikings team for nearly two touchdowns. The Vikings did not lose by more than 13 points all year and were 3-2 ATS as underdogs this year. We also like the fact if San Francisco gets up by more than 10 points, Minnesota has the weapons to answer quickly (hopefully the injury news with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are just smoke).

For the nightcap, we like teasing the total down to 40.5 as we think both teams could put up points, especially if Baltimore gets up early and forces the Titans to play catch up. Tennessee showed us it can put up 20 points on the road against a Top-5 defense and Baltimore is the highest-scoring team in the league.

Our two-game, six-point teaser looks like this: Minnesota +13 & TEN/BAL Over 40.5 for -110


WILLING TO WAGER ON WILLIAMS

Since coming back from injury in Week 16, Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams has topped 53.5 yards rushing, passed 2.5 receptions and eclipsed 23.5 yards receiving in both games. All of those are the RB?s totals for this weekend versus Houston?s 26th-ranked DVOA defense and 31st-ranked pass defense to opposing running backs. Williams? backers could be treating themselves to top-shelf selections after Sunday?s afternoon game.

Williams has averaged 17.5 touches since his return and ran to the tune of 6.75 yards per carry and 8.14 yards per reception over that two-game stretch. Houston didn?t get burned on the ground last week as Devin Singletary rushed for just 58 yards on 13 carries, but the Buffalo back did take seven targets and turn them into six catches for 76 yards with a long of 38.

We are getting behind Williams in the passing game and taking a long look at all three of his passing props with the Over in mind: 2.5 receptions, 23.5 yards receiving and a longest reception of 13.5 yards.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Divisional Round

Last four seasons, underdogs are 9-6-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Saturday
49ers are in playoffs for first time in seven years; they went 3-2 in last five regular season games, with the three wins by total of 10 points- SF is 3-4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY. Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Cousins got his first playoff win LW; this is Garoppolo?s first playoff game. Minnesota is 5-4 SU on road TY- they?re 2-2 ATS as a road underdog. Vikings are 8-1 TY when they allow 20 or fewer points, 3-5 when they allow more. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Minnesota played in NFC title game two years ago, when Keenum was their QB. Home side won last four Viking-49er games; Minnesota lost nine of last ten road games in this series, with last win here in ?07. Vikings beat SF 24-16 at home LY. Last six years, #1 seeds are 11-1 SU in this round, 7-5 ATS.

Tennessee is 8-3 TY with Tannehill at QB; they won their last four road games, scoring 32 ppg. Titans are 6-3 SU on road TY; they?re 3-2 ATS as a road underdog. Eight of their last ten games went over. Tennessee is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 11 years. Last week was Tannehill?s first playoff game; he went 8-15/72 passing, but the Titans won in Foxboro, running for 200+ yards. Baltimore won its last ten games after a 2-2 start; they?re in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years- last time they got by this round was 2012. Baltimore is 2-4 ATS as a home favorite TY. LW was Jackson?s first playoff game; Ravens have run for 200+ nine times TY, including last three games in row. Ravens-Titans split last ten meetings; Titans haven?t been to Baltimore in five years. Last six years, #1 seeds are 11-1 SU in this round, 7-5 ATS.

Sunday
Houston has never been past this round, going 0-3 in their history. Texans rallied back from a 17-3 deficit, upset the Chiefs 31-24 (+3.5) at Arrowhead in Week 6; Houston had 35 first downs, outgained KC 472-309 and didn?t punt- they had three turnovers, missed a FG. Texans allowed 30+ points in five of its six losses; they?re 5-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Three of their last four games stayed under total. Chiefs won their last six games (under 5-1), four by 10+ points; they?re 3-2-1 ATS this year as a home favorite. You?re reading armadillosports.com. KC held three of its last four opponents under 280 yards. Chiefs are in playoffs of fifth year in row, losing AFC title game at home LY; over last five years, #2 seeds are 3-6-1 ATS in this round.

Green Bay-Seattle have met three times in playoffs; home side won all three games. Home side won last eight series games overall; Seahawks lost their last eight visits to Lambeau- their last win here was 20 years ago. Seattle lost three of last five games; they?re 8-1 SU on road TY, with only loss to the Rams, 2-0 ATS as a road underdog. Wilson is 9-5 in playoff games, 6-1 in his first game each year- he played his last year of college at Wisconsin. Under is 3-1-1 in Seattle?s last five games. Green Bay is in playoffs for first time in three years; Rodgers is 9-7 in career playoff games, 5-3 in his first game each year. Packers won their last five games SU, are 5-3 ATS as a home favorite TY. seven of their last eight games stayed under the total.

 

[Udog]

Total Talk - DP Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Weekend Recap

The ?under? trend continued in the Wild Card round last weekend as the low side went 4-0. Including those results, the ?under? has gone 10-2 (83%) the past three years in the opening round and it?s 24-7-1 (77%) in the last eight WC weekends. Going back even further to the 2004-05 postseason, the ?under? has gone 42-21-1 (67%). Perhaps things will change in 2021?

Divisional Playoff History

While the Wild Card weekend has produced a great return for ?under? bettors recently, the opposite can be said for the ?over? in the Divisional Playoffs. The high side has gone 8-4 (67%) in the last three years of the Divisional Round and we haven?t seen the ?under? produce a 3-1 mark or better since 2013. If you plan on chasing with ?over? wagers this weekend after the WC results, it?s safe to say you should hit at least one ticket.



If there are some angles that stick out in the above table, you can see that home teams have gone 9-3 in this round since 2016 and they?ve averaged 29.6 points per game while the visitors have notched 21.5 PPG.

Best Bet Selections

I didn?t hold back last week and came to the betting counter with six selections and the sweat meter was raised in a few of them. While I was fortunate to cash a few Team Total wagers on Buffalo and Tennessee, the Saints and Patriots didn?t do their part. The ?under? in the Seattle-Philadelphia game was never in doubt and the Wentz injury (Thanks Jadeveon!) helped us finish 3-3 on the weekend. Once again, you can hear all the analysis for the Divisional Round on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Minnesota at San Francisco (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 45 ? and the number has dropped to 44 ? as of Thursday. FoxBet, a major online shop for NJ and PA bettors, is a bit shorter at 44. I?m a little surprised of the slight downward movement, especially since weather isn?t expected to be a factor on the West Coast this Saturday afternoon.

Minnesota is coming off a solid 26-20 overtime road win over New Orleans last Sunday and while you don?t want to take anything away from the Vikings defense, the Saints certainly weren?t sharp and they left a handful of points off the board. The game went ?under? (50) and that result snapped a 5-0 ?over? run on the road for the Vikings.

Despite that ticket going to the low side, the Vikings offense did their part and that?s been a steady trend for the offense. Since being held to a combined 22 points in their first two road games of the season, Minnesota is averaging 30.8 PPG in its last seven outside of Minneapolis and they?ve played in some hostile environments (Chiefs, Cowboys, Seahawks) all season too.

Levi?s Stadium doesn?t necessarily put a scare in opponents but the 49ers went 6-2 at home this season and the ?over? was 5-3 in those games behind a San Francisco offense that averaged 32.4 PPG, ranked second at home in the league. The 49ers will be playing with rest and the club defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 after its ?bye? week in this year?s regular season. Prior to that win, the 49ers were winless in their last eight games (0-7-1) in the regular season when playing with rest. The ?under? (48) cashed against the Browns and the low side is now 3-0 after the bye for the 49ers since head coach Kyle Shanahan took over the team.

Shanahan will be making his postseason debut and he certainly doesn?t have as much playoff experience as his counterpart, Mike Zimmer of the Vikings (2-2 playoff record). However, he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons during their 2016 postseason run that ended in a collapsing 34-28 loss to New England. Prior to the Super Bowl, Atlanta scored 36 and 44 points at home in the playoffs as the top seed.

The 49ers won?t have Matt Ryan at quarterback, rather Jimmy Garropolo and some pundits would say that the youngster is better than Falcons veteran and that argument could be solidified this weekend if Jimmy G wins his playoff debut against the Vikings. You can?t dismiss his career record of 21-5 as a starter and he?s had to produce more lately because the Niners defensive unit has allowed 29.4 PPG in the final month of the season and that?s led to a 3-1-1 ?over? mark.

Garoppolo and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins went head-to-head in Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and the Vikings captured a 24-16 win as the ?under? (46) connected. Cousins passed for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the win while Jimmy G struggled, tossing a career-high three interceptions. San Francisco hasn?t been in the playoffs since the 2013-14 season and during that run, the ?under? went 3-0 in three games. The Vikings have seen their ?over/under? results go 2-2 in the playoffs under Zimmer.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

Of the four Divisional Playoff teams going on the road this weekend, I believe Minnesota will have the best opportunity to put up points. The offense has traveled well recently and playing on the West Coast hasn?t been in issue either. They scored 39 at the Chargers and 30 at the Seahawks this season, plus they put up 31 on the Rams at Los Angeles in the 2018 regular season. All three of those games went ?over? and I believe this matchup will see points too. Along with playing the Minnesota Team Total Over (19 ?) in this spot, I believe San Francisco will match points too and that has me leaning Over (44 ?) in the game too. Let?s call it 34-30 for the 49ers.


Tennessee at Baltimore (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Saturday?s primetime matchup has also seen money come in on the ?under? as the total on the Tennessee-Baltimore matchup at FoxBet (NJ & PA only) moved from 49 to 47.

Similar to the Vikings, the Titans were on a great ?over? run to close the season (9-1) and on the road (4-0) but that came to an end in the WC round as they stifled the Patriots 20-13 as road favorites. Overall, Tennessee has watched the ?over? go 10-7 this season and that includes a 5-4 mark outside of Nashville. Since QB Ryan Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ?over? go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game and the defense has certainly helped the cause ? see last week's late touchdown at Foxboro.

I wasn?t surprised by Tennessee winning outright last Saturday but holding New England?s offense in check was certainly eye-opening especially since its scoring defense (20.2 PPG) wasn?t exactly lights out this season, ranked 12th in the league. However, its numbers on the road dropped to 17.1 PPG albeit seven of those games came against non-playoff teams and the Texans, one of the two playoff clubs, rolled out backups in Week 17.

Now Tennessee faces the top-ranked scoring offense in Baltimore (33.2 PPG) on the road and that?s a much stiffer test than New England. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has put up MVP numbers this season but the unit was better on the road (36.5 PPG) than at home (29.9 PPG). In eight games from Maryland, the total results went 4-4 and the Baltimore defense (18.6 PPG) certainly helped those outcomes.

Even though Jackson is 0-1 in the playoffs, the experienced edge goes to the Ravens with John Harbaugh as coach. He?s owns a 10-6 career postseason mark, which includes a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark at home. The loss came last season with Jackson under center and he played horrible in a 23-17 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, completing just 48 percent of his passes.

Historically, the Ravens have seen the ?under? cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points during that span. Also, Tennessee has watched the ?under? cash in six of their last seven postseason games. Those stats have nothing to do with these teams but facts are facts. If you want another good tidbit for this game, check out Matt Blunt?s Sunday?s Best Bets, which focuses on an angle circling around NFL leading rusher -- Titans running back Derrick Henry.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

I believe Jackson will avenge what happened to him in last year?s playoffs and Baltimore will be hosting the AFC Championship next Sunday. However, my lean is based on the defense of Baltimore and I believe the unit will step up in this spot and I?m riding the tendencies we?ve seen under Harbaugh. When playing with rest, the Ravens have gone 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS under him and the defense has only allowed 15.1 PPG which has helped the ?under? go 8-4-1. I?m going to stay away from the Under on the game but back the Tennessee Team Total Under (19 ?) instead. Ravens by double digits here, 30-12 is my projection.

 

[Udog]

Total Talk - DP Sunday
Chris David

As stated in Saturday?s piece, the Divisional Playoff history has favored the home team and both hosts are expected to advance in these games too. The Chiefs are the only team that played in this round last season while the Texans, Seahawks and Packers made their last appearances in 2016.

Best Bet Selections

We went 3-3 in last week?s Wild Card round and I?m coming back firing for the Divisional Playoffs. Saturday?s plays are listed right below and my Sunday picks can be viewed in the Fearless Predictions.

Minnesota Team Total Over (19 ?)
Minnesota-San Francisco Over (44 ?)
Tennessee Team Total Under (19 ?)

You can check all my total analysis thoughts for the Divisional Round on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Houston at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Of the four playoff totals listed this weekend, this number was the only one to get pushed up. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook sent out 50 and it sits at 51 as of Thursday evening. Unibet, a major sportsbook in NJ and PA, is also holding 51.

Based on the point-spread (Chiefs -9 ?), the oddsmakers are expecting a 30-20 outcome in this matchup and that number could seem high when we know the Texans defeated the Chiefs 31-24 at Arrowhead this season in Week 6. The ?over? cashed in that game and while the final outcome came close to the closing number (54 ?), the high side had a nice pace as the Texans led 23-17 at halftime. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 30-of-42 passes for 280 yards but was picked off twice. However, he ran for two touchdowns and rushed for 42 yards. In the 2017 regular season, Watson passed for five touchdowns against the Chiefs but Houston lost a 42-34 decision at home in a wild game that saw 40 points scored in the fourth quarter.

Despite the success against the Chiefs, Watson is 1-1 in two playoff starts and that includes last week?s 22-19 Wild Card win at Buffalo at home. Watson put up solid numbers (20-of-25, 247 yards passing, 55 rushing yards) in the win, but I keep reminding myself that he?s been held scoreless in the first-half of two postseason games at home. Now he's playing his road playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Good Luck!

For our purposes, the Texans saw the ?under? go 10-7 this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home. However, the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams and the 41-7 blowout loss at Baltimore certainly pushed that number up. The unit stood firm in wins over Tennessee (24-21) and the win mentioned above over KC.

In Saturday?s ?Total Talk? piece, I touched on Ravens head coach John Harbaugh off the ?bye? and while he?s been great, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is the master of NFL rest. He?s 18-3 in his career, most during his tenure with Philadelphia. At Kansas City, he's gone 5-2 and he's a combined 4-1 record with both teams in the Divisional Round. That includes a 31-13 home win by KC in the postseason over Indianapolis last year in this spot. The ?under? cashed in that game and the low side stands at 4-3 in seven playoff games under Reid in KC.

The boss of the Chiefs has only gone 2-5 in the playoffs since coming over from Philadelphia, where he went 10-9 with the Eagles. The one thing that stood out with the Chiefs is that they?ve only allowed 13 points in their two postseason wins under Reid and the ?under? connected in both games. Another reason to back the ?under? here is based on Kansas City?s defensive form. The unit allowed 11.5 points per game in its last six contests and that led to a 5-1 ?under? mark but five of those affairs came against non-playoff teams.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

Even though the Chiefs have been made healthy favorites, I believe this is the toughest side to handicap this weekend. I?m very hesitant to back Watson but I?m not sold on Reid in the playoffs either. I do like my total play though ? Kansas City Team Total Over. While Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes can be erratic, he moves the chains better than anybody in the NFL and the offense ranked first in third down conversions. He?s shown good form in two playoff games, posting 31 in each contest. Also in two games when playing with rest, Mahomes and the Chiefs have posted 40 and 31 points. I believe KC will get at least five scores, possibly six in the revenge game. I?ll call it Kansas City 34 Houston 24 in what should be an entertaining game.


Seattle at Green Bay (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers sent out a strong total at 47 and Unibet (NJ & PA only) hasn?t nudged in either direction as of Thursday evening. Temperatures could get into the low 20s by kickoff at Lambeau Field on Sunday night but no strong winds or precipitation is expected.

Pun intended, Seattle has weathered everything and anything thrown at it on the road this season and it?s posted a league-best 8-1 record away from home. Last week?s 17-9 win at Philadelphia was an easy ?under? ticket and even though Eagles QB Carson Wentz was knocked out early, the defense did its part and that?s been a common theme. The unit has been lights out on the road, allowing 19.8 PPG and that effort led to a 5-4 ?under? record and it could?ve been more skewed to the low side but QB Russell Wilson and the offense scored 27 or more points in six of those games.

Wilson has been a real gamer on the road in his career, going 38-25-1. In the playoffs, he?s 4-5 away from Century Link Field and that includes a 1-1 record in the Super Bowl. While all those numbers are impressive, the future Hall of Famer hasn?t been able to win at Lambeau Field. In three trips, Seattle has gone 0-3 and the ?Hawks were held to 17, 10 and 9 points.

To be fair to Wilson, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is just 1-3 in four career starts at Seattle and the one setback that sticks out was the 28-22 overtime loss to the Seahawks in the 2015 NFC Championship.

Circling back to this game, the Packers saw the ?under? go 7-1 in the second-half of the season and the defense only gave up 18.8 PPG but six of those games were against non-playoff teams. What?s more alarming for Green Bay is that the offense averaged 20.1 PPG during this span and the unit was held to 15.5 PPG in the two contests against postseason clubs.

Will the week off help Green Bay get back on track? Historically, the Packers are on a 5-1 ?over? run in the playoffs but they haven?t been in the postseason since 2016-17. Including last week?s outcome at the Eagles, Seattle has watched the ?over? go 4-3 in its last seven road playoff games with Wilson at QB. The defense has looked sharp in three wins over this span, allowing 10.6 PPG. However, the unit has surrendered 30.3 PPG in their four losses.

Fearless Prediction - Over/Under Picks

I said in last week?s piece that the winner of the Seahawks-Eagles will get lit up the following week and I?m sticking to that prediction. While Seattle?s scoring defense has been great on the road, we have to dissect the guys at QB that it?s faced ? Rudolph, Murray, Mayfield, Schaub, Garropolo, Wentz, Goff, Allen. I believe Wentz is legit, when healthy and with weapons, two things he was without this season. I also like Jimmy G and Goff and they both lit up Seattle not once but twice this season. Rodgers, hasn?t looked sharp at times this season, but his teams have averaged 27.8 PPG in 10 career postseason wins and 35.6 PPG in the last three playoff victories. Green Bay Team Total (24 ?) is my strongest lean of the weekend and the Over (47) in the game will be locked up too. My projection calls for Green Bay 33 Seattle 22.

 

[Udog]

posted in wrong thread...

 

[Udog]

Saturday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Vikings at 49ers, 4:35 pm ET, NBC
Betting Odds: San Francisco -7, Total 44 ?

San Francisco (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2013, having finished atop the NFC with one of its best seasons over the past 35 years. This new version of the 49ers still has a lot to prove to garner further mention among the franchise?s top teams, much less the ones that reached three straight NFC championship games under Jim Harbaugh.

This is a new group that is tasting success for the first time. Jimmy Garoppolo, who struggled earlier in the season as he returned from an ACL tear, will be making his first postseason start. Santa Clara?s Levi?s Stadium will host the Niners? entire run since they were able to edge the Saints in comeback fashion in New Orleans and then held off the Seahawks by an inch in Seattle. Mix in a dominant performance at home against Green Bay in Week 12 and the 49ers have definitely earned the right to remain at home for as long as they?re alive.

That didn?t do New Orleans much good against Minnesota (11-6, 10-7) last week in the biggest upset of Wild Card Weekend. The Vikings closed as a seven-point underdog and responded to blowing a late lead by breaking through with a touchdown to open overtime. The Vikes won 26-20 on Kyle Rudolph?s touchdown catch on third down and deserved to come out on top, controlling the game against the Saints with a strong performance from RB Dalvin Cook and his offensive line. A defensive backfield decimated by injuries held up against a Brees-led passing attack and Kirk Cousins put together a number of clutch throws to help deliver the upset.

The bye should certainly help the 49ers, who had multiple bumps and bruises they had to overcome throughout December, but don?t make too much of the Vikings coming in on a short week after winning last Sunday afternoon.

Although they do have a day less to prepare compared to the conventional week-to-week NFL grind, it?s not like Minnesota is being asked to turn around and play on a Thursday night. The Vikings won two of their three games without a full week?s preparation and covered all three times.

The 49ers opened as a -6.5/-7-point favorite, which is where the figure continues to hover at as kickoff approaches. It?s no secret that Minnesota will look to test its physicality against a team that has excelled at what Mike Zimmer terms ?big-boy football,? getting lined up and blocking and attempting to establish the run. The Vikings finished sixth in the NFL in rushing, while San Francisco ended up as a middle-of-the-road run defense, coming in 17th.

A pass defense that was the best in all of football (169.2 ypg) ultimately allowed the 49ers to finish second in fewest total yardage surrendered, so you don?t have to wonder what Minnesota is hoping to establish. If they?re successful early in getting Cook going, they could effectively utilize play-action if Cousins can accurately throw downfield. Although his streak of losses in primetime games continued in 2019, he?s enjoyed an effective season and is 9-3 straight up in day games.

Cousins has props of 230.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns available at the Westgate Superbook. He?s expected to have his full complement of receivers available with Adam Thielen set to play through an ankle injury. Cook?s rushing yard number was set at 80.5, which is a little risky since the Vikings are likely to mix in rookie Alexander Mattison early in order to ensure Cook will be fresh enough for a final push.

Garoppolo attempted a pass back in the 2014 postseason while winning a Super Bowl as a rookie with the Patriots but will come into this contest looking for his first completion. The Westgate placed his props at 20.5 completions and 1.5 touchdown passes. He?s favored to throw an interception (-145). My free pick here would to ride the ?under? on Garoppolo completions. Although there?s danger in him finding George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Deebo Samuel on short routes, he?s only completed more than 20 passes in seven of his 16 outings and did so only twice over the last six weeks.

Minnesota?s pass defense finished 15th, but since the team?s strength lies in their pass rush, it?s likely that 49ers head coach Mike Shanahan employs the run often. Running it early to ensure Garoppolo can settle down makes a first-quarter ?under? attractive. Raheem Mostert has emerged as the primary back and figures to get plenty of work to try and neutralize a unit that finished fifth with 48 sacks and picked up 31 takeaways, ranking fourth in the NFL. A red-zone defense that ranked second in the NFL in keeping opponents out of the end zone could also present issues for the Niners. Mostert scored rushing touchdowns in six straight games and is -110 to do so again per the Westgate.

The Vikings come in with a depleted secondary after ruling safety Jayron Kearse out with knee and toe injuries. Corner Mackensie Alexander was unable to come back from a knee injury and had surgery on Thursday. Corner Mike Hughes was lost late in the season and veteran Xavier Rhodes has been picked on, so there could be opportunities if Garoppolo is sharp. San Francisco is much healthier, activating linebacker Kwon Alexander from a torn pectoral, the same injury that had sidelined Houston?s J.J. Watt. Alexander was the heart of the 49ers? defense before going down. Pass rusher Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt are also back in the mix for an aggressive unit that excelled most of the season.

San Francisco is 4-1 in the playoffs against the Vikings, with every meeting coming in the divisional playoff round. None of that really matters, but it is worth knowing that the 49ers have only won one of the last five matchups against Minnesota over the past 12 years, last falling in Week 1 of 2018 by a 24-16 score. Garoppolo was intercepted three times despite throwing for 261 yards. Cousins threw for 244 yards and two scores in his first game as the Vikes? quarterback. San Francisco won the lone meeting at Levi?s back in ?15, rolling 20-3.

The ?over? went 8-7-1 in 49ers games this season and went 8-8 in Minnesota?s games. For all ?Total Talk? on Saturday?s Divisional playoff action, read Chris David?s piece click here.

Temperatures will be in the 50?s and wind gusts will be minimal in Santa Clara, so weather shouldn?t play a large role. For that reason, I also love the prop requiring both teams to knock down field goals of at least 33 yards to cash at +110 (Westgate) since both teams have accurate kickers and solid red-zone defenses.


Titans at Ravens, 8:15 pm ET, CBS
Betting Odds: Baltimore -10, Total 47

Baltimore (14-2 SU, 11-4-1 ATS) opens its run as Super Bowl favorite, currently 2-to-1 at Caesars, at home in what could be a rainy Saturday night. Upset-minded Tennessee (10-7, 10-7) arrives instead of the Texans, which also means Tom Brady and the Patriots won?t come knocking again.

The Ravens had their coming-out party in Week 9, dominating New England 37-20 after a well-timed bye. As November opened, the AFC still looked like the Patriots Invitational due to an elite defense and the presence of Brady. That game was not only an eye-opener, it sent the teams in completely different directions. Baltimore hasn?t lost since Sept. 29, going 9-2-1 against the spread during its 12-game win streak. Quarterback Lamar Jackson will be named NFL MVP.

The Titans defeated the Patriots in Foxborough last week, clamping down defensively and riding a ground game led by NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry to a 20-13 win that would?ve been a one-point squeaker if not for a Brady pick-six to close the game out. Tennessee has now won and covered six of eight, a stretch that actually includes a perfect mark over four road games. Tennessee?s run began with a home win over Kansas City and includes a Week 17 victory over a Houston team resting starters, so Mike Vrabel?s team will have plenty of confidence if it can survive to play for an AFC Championship on the road next Sunday.

Tennessee?s current Super Bowl odds at Caesars are 35-to-1 and it is currently the lone double-digit underdog playing this weekend unless Houston ends up in that role on Sunday. As of late Friday, the Chiefs were still a 9/9.5-point favorite for Sunday?s matchup with the Texans.

The number for this game opened with the Ravens laying 10 points but that was quickly bet down to nine points, even reaching 8.5 at Circa and FanDuel. Around Tuesday, the action started coming in on Baltimore, pushing the spread to 10 and potentially climbing.

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won his postseason debut despite having never won at Gillette Stadium coming into this postseason. He?s now 8-3 as the team?s starter. Lamar Jackson will be looking to get on the board after falling his first time out, struggling to get anything going against the Chargers at home in an eventual 23-17 loss in the Wild Card round last year. The Ravens fell behind 12-0 and 23-3 before a pair of late scores. Jackson ran nine times for 54 yards and finished 14-for-29 for 194 yards and the two fourth-quarter TD passes.

He then went to work and became the NFL?s most prolific offensive weapon. Jackson set a league record for a quarterback with 1,206 rushing yards. He threw 36 touchdown passes while Baltimore set a league record with 3,296 rushing yards. After opening the season with a 59-10 rout of Miami, the Ravens barely slowed down. They?ve scored 28 or more points in eight of their last 10 contests and finished with a league-best 531 points (33.2 ppg). This total of 47 is consistent with where oddsmakers have kept Ravens games all season, placing them within three of that number in 12 of their 16 contests. The ?over? is 9-7 in Baltimore games.

Jackson has props of 17.5 completions and two passing touchdowns available at the Westgate Superbook. The number set on his rushing prop is 74.5 yards, which is a figure he?s eclipsed in five of his past six games. Despite that, he?s got just one rushing TD over the last six contests. Keep that in mind if you?re enticed by banking on ?yes? at a return of +115 (-135 for ?no?).

By comparison, Henry?s odds of reaching the end zone have been at set at -150, which is still a nice bet considering the Titans are unlikely to get shut out and he?s scored in seven of the last eight games he?s played in. He?s got 13 touchdowns since the beginning of November and looks healthy after taking Week 16 off to rest an ailing hamstring. Henry?s rushing total has been set at 95.5, a figure he?s topped in six of seven after racking up 182 yards at New England last Saturday night. He closed the regular season with 211 yards on 32 carries at Houston. The Ravens finished with the league?s fifth-best run defense, which will definitely make things interesting.

Baltimore?s pass defense finished sixth, while the Titans finished 24th stifling teams through the air. If inclement weather is part of the action, it may not be as easy for Jackson to dissect Tennessee. The 238 yards he passed for against the Browns in Week 17 were his highest output since late September. Tight end Mark Andrews has emerged as his favorite target and should play despite likely being at less than 100 percent with an ankle injury. He?s caught seven of Jackson?s 24 touchdown passes over the past seven weeks and is even money to score on Saturday (?no? -120)

Preparing for Jackson is an impossible task, but the Titans have been working against the elusive former No. 2 overall pick Marcus, Mariota to try and replicate what they?re about to face. Tannehill finished 8-for-15 for just 72 yards against the Patriots, so his passing yards number (225.5) is suspiciously high. If you?re of the belief that Baltimore will go up early and the Titans will have to abandon their plans to feed Henry and consume clock, be sure to check and see just how hard the rain is falling as kickoff approaches and get a more accurate forecast for potential in-game showers.

AP notes worth knowing include the Ravens coming in 72-24 at home under Harbaugh throughout his tenure, allowing only 16.8 points per game. Baltimore 14-1 in home primetime games, while Jackson threw 11 TDs with no picks in his three evening games this season.

Mark Ingram (calf) is listed as questionable to play, but the Ravens? top running back returned to practice on Thursday and is expected to suit up and play. Gus Edwards would be in for an increased workload if Ingram can?t get loose or is ineffective. The Ravens are otherwise healthy and should see Ingram and Edwards gut it out through their usual roles. Tennessee has ruled out linebacker Jayon Brown, who hurt his shoulder against the Patriots. Backup WR Adam Humphries is also sidelined. Corner Adoree Jackson and LB Kamalei Correa will play.

 

[Udog]

NFL playoffs divisional round betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Wideout Will Fuller missed Houston's overtime win against Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend. He's questionable to take the field for Sunday's divisional-round playoff game at Kansas City.

The NFL playoffs move on to the divisional round, considered by many to be the best weekend of the season. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

HOUSTON TEXANS: Wide receiver Will Fuller missed last week?s wild-card victory over Buffalo, and he?s questionable and said to be a game-time decision Sunday at Kansas City. ?Houston?s offense really didn?t look great without Fuller, so I would imagine if he doesn?t play, that would affect the line a little bit,? Osterman said. ?It?s possibly enough to move Kansas City from -9.5 to -10, if we keep seeing the Chiefs money we?ve been getting.? The SuperBook opened the Texans +7.5.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) is questionable for Sunday?s home tilt against Houston. ?If he doesn?t play, then I could see the line coming down a half-point, but that would really depend on if we keep getting Chiefs money.? Indeed, The SuperBook opened Kansas City -7.5 last Saturday night and jumped to -9.5 by Sunday morning.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Running back Mark Ingram (calf) and tight end Mark Andrews (ankle), both Pro Bowl selections, are listed as questionable for Saturday night?s game against visiting Tennessee. But that would appear to be a formality. ?It?s been announced that Ingram is playing, and we expect Andrews to play, as well. They?ve basically had three weeks off. No move in the line, because they were expected to play.? Baltimore has stuck at -9.5 since Tuesday.

TENNESSEE TITANS: Wideout Adam Humphries (ankle) is out, as is linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder). But Osterman said those absences didn?t impact the line at all. The Titans are catching 9.5 at Baltimore in this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday clash.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (ankle) is questionable for Saturday?s game at San Francisco. ?Thielen is expected to play. He would be worth a half-point if he somehow did not play.? The Vikings are 7-point underdogs.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Defensive end Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) missed the last three games and is questionable Saturday against Minnesota. However, Osterman said that didn?t impact the number at all. The Niners are laying 7 points at home.

Weather Watch

HOUSTON AT KANSAS CITY: The Kansas City area could see 3-5 inches of snow Saturday, but Sunday brings with it temperatures in the upper 30s and just a 20 percent chance of precipitation. As such, the total actually rose for this 3:05 p.m. ET start, opening at 50, ticking down to 49, then rising to 51.5 by Friday.

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field expected to see snow Friday night and perhaps Saturday. However, by the 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday kick, it?s just expected to be cold, with temperatures in the low 20s. ?The weather won?t be much of a factor at all in these games, unless the wind gets strong, which isn?t expected.? The total opened at 47, dipped to 45.5 and got back to 47 early in the week, then ticked to 46.5 Friday morning.

MINNESOTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: There?s a 20 percent chance of rain Saturday, but Osterman said weather hasn?t impacted the total in this 4:35 p.m. ET contest. The SuperBook opened the total at 45.5 and dropped to 44.5.

Pros vs. Joes

MINNESOTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: ?We?re seeing some pro money on Minnesota and some public money on San Fran,? Osterman said. ?But there?s also public play on Minnesota moneyline.? The 49ers are 7-point favorites on the spread and -310 on the moneyline, while the Vikes are +260 on the moneyline.

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: ?The public is on Seattle, and we?ve had some sharp money come in on Green Bay.? As such, this number has trended toward the Packers, opening -3.5 and reaching -4.5 Wednesday.

Reverse Line Moves

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY: As noted above, the Pros vs. Joes wagering on this contest is creating a reverse line move. ?We are seeing more money on Seattle, but the line is moving in Green Bay?s favor.?

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Texans at Chiefs ? 3:05 PM EST ? CBS
Betting Odds: Kansas City -9 ?, Total 51

The only rematch from the regular season in this weekend?s divisional playoff round takes place at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Houston (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) was on its way to an early postseason exit as the AFC South champions dug themselves a 16-0 hole in last Saturday?s Wild Card matchup with Buffalo. However, the Texans did not repeat last season?s Wild Card performance in a 21-7 setback to the Colts as Houston rallied past Buffalo in overtime, 22-19 to cash as 2 ?-point favorites.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson led the comeback with a touchdown run late in the third quarter, followed by a two-point conversion to cut the deficit to 16-8. Following a field goal early in the fourth quarter, the Texans grabbed their first lead of the afternoon on a Watson touchdown pass to Carlos Hyde for a 19-16 advantage. The Bills tied the game in the final seconds with a 47-yard field goal, but the Texans escaped on a short field goal by Ka?imi Fairbairn in overtime to grab the narrow cover.

The Chiefs (12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) wrapped up their fourth consecutive AFC West title, but have only one AFC Championship to show for it. Kansas City dropped a heartbreaker to New England in overtime last January, 37-31, preventing the Chiefs from making their first Super Bowl since the 1969 season, when they won the franchise?s only championship.

Kansas City posted a perfect September by winning all four games, including three victories away from Arrowhead Stadium. The most notable triumph came in Week 3 against Baltimore, 33-28, handing the Ravens one of their two defeats on the season. However, the Chiefs lost three of their next four games, including home setbacks to the Colts, Texans, and Packers in October. The biggest loss suffered was 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 rout of Denver.

Mahomes miraculously missed only two games, as Kansas City split a pair of home contests against Green Bay and Minnesota. In Mahomes? return at Tennessee in Week 10, the All-Pro quarterback threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns, but the Chiefs squandered a nine-point fourth quarter lead in a 35-32 defeat. That would be the last loss suffered in the regular season by Kansas City as Andy Reid?s club finished the campaign with six consecutive victories to lock up the second seed in the AFC playoffs.

Circling back to the Week 6 matchup at Arrowhead, the Texans fell into a 17-3 hole against the Chiefs, but Houston stormed back by outscoring Kansas City, 20-0 in the second quarter to grab a 23-17 halftime edge. Only 15 more points were scored in the final two quarters to barely eclipse the total of 54 ?, but Houston picked up the 31-24 victory thanks to a one-yard touchdown scramble by Watson with 6:17 remaining in regulation. The Texans cashed as short 3 ?-point underdogs, while outrushing the Chiefs, 192-53 and owning nearly a 2-to-1 time of possession advantage.

Playing at home in the playoffs hasn?t been kind to the Chiefs since 1995 as Kansas City is 1-7 in its last eight postseason contests at Arrowhead. Granted, the lone victory came against Indianapolis in the divisional playoffs last season to end that long hex, but it is still a sore spot for Chiefs? fans as the franchise is 2-5 in the postseason since Reid took over as head coach in 2012.

Since this is the lone rematch out of the four divisional affairs, teams seeking revenge have not fared well the second time around. Dating back to 2015, teams that lost the regular season meeting and hooked up in the second round of the playoffs posted a 3-7 SU and 5-4-1 ATS record. Favorites own a 1-2-1 ATS mark in this stretch with the lone chalk team to win and cover being the Falcons in 2016, who avenged a three-point loss at Seattle to cruise past the Seahawks at home in the playoffs, 36-20 as 6 ?-point favorites.


Seahawks at Packers ? 6:40 PM EST ? FOX
Betting Odds: Green Bay -4 ?, Total 47

The final team to take the field for the first time in the postseason is Green Bay (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS), who are back in the playoffs following a two-year absence. The last time the Packers grabbed the NFC North crown came back in 2016, as Green Bay reached the conference championship before getting rolled by Atlanta. Now, the Packers are back atop the division as Matt LaFleur was the only first-year head coach out of seven to finish with a winning record in 2019.

Green Bay lost only once at Lambeau Field this season by posting a 7-1 mark with the lone blemish coming against Philadelphia in a Thursday night defeat, 34-27 in Week 4. The Packers were blown out in a pair of road routs against the Chargers and 49ers, but Green Bay swept the six games from the NFC North, including a pair of wins over Minnesota. The defense limited eight opponents to 16 points or less, while compiling a solid 7-3 ATS mark as a single-digit favorite.

The Seahawks (12-5 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) continued their domination of the highway by improving to 8-1 away from CenturyLink Field in a 17-9 triumph at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Seattle moved to 10-1 since 2005 in its first game of the postseason, while picking up its first road playoff victory since 2015 at Minnesota.

The Eagles lost quarterback Carson Wentz in the first quarter to a head injury, as Philadelphia?s offense didn?t reach the end zone with backup Josh McCown by getting held to three field goals. Seahawks? running back Marshawn Lynch scored a touchdown for the second straight game after returning to Seattle prior to Week 17 to give them a 10-3 halftime lead. Quarterback Russell Wilson hooked up with rookie wide receiver D.K. Metcalf on a 53-yard touchdown connection to put the Seahawks in control, 17-6 as Seattle owns a perfect 6-0 record in the Eastern Time Zone.

Seattle and Green Bay didn?t meet this season, but this has been a series dominated by the home team. In the last eight matchups since 2009, the home squad is a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, which includes a 27-24 victory by Seattle at CenturyLink Field in 2018.

However, Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never won at Lambeau Field in three tries by losing in three straight seasons from 2015 through 2017. The offense didn?t produce much by scoring 17, 10, and 9 points in those defeats. The most recent playoff hookup came in January 2015 in Seattle when the Seahawks rallied from a 16-0 deficit to shock the Packers in overtime, 28-22 on a Wilson 35-yard touchdown strike to Jermaine Kearse.

Under Carroll, the Seahawks have never won a divisional round game after grabbing a victory in the Wild Card round. In 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2016, Seattle fell in the second round on the road, with three losses coming by a touchdown or more. In the two seasons that the Seahawks reached the Super Bowl in 2013 and 2014, they played both games at home each time and have never made a Super Bowl while winning at least one road game.

 

[Udog]

posted in wrong thread...

 

[Udog]

Championship Notes

AFC Championship

Tennessee at Kansas City

Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Tennessee: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Kansas City: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Chiefs rallied past the Texans in the AFC divisional round, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ?-point home favorite with a total of 52.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 10 of the 2018 regular season and Tennessee shocked Kansas City, 35-32 as a five-point home underdog. Kansas City built a 10-0 advantage and led 29-20 in the fourth quarter before Tennessee came back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, capped off by a Ryan Tannehill touchdown strike to Adam Humphries in the final minute. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdown passes, while Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Kansas City struggled against the AFC South in the regular season by losing three of four contests, but rebounded with the blowout win over Houston in the divisional round. Tennessee posted a 3-1 record against AFC West foes this season by beating Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles, while getting shut out at Denver.

Playoff Notes

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel improved to 2-0 in the postseason in his short coaching career with wins at New England and Baltimore. The defense has allowed a total of 25 points in the two playoff wins, as Tennessee dominated top-seeded Baltimore, 28-12 to advance to the franchise's first AFC championship since 2002.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 13-14 career record in the playoffs, while the Chiefs have gone 2-3 under Reid in the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. The first win came in last year?s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

The Chiefs met the Titans in the 2017 Wild Card round and led Tennessee, 21-3 at halftime. However, the Titans rallied by outscoring the Chiefs, 19-0 in the second half to stun Kansas City, 22-21 as 8 ?-point road underdogs. Kansas City is playing in its second consecutive AFC championship game after falling short against New England in overtime last season.

It's been a long time for Kansas City in the Super Bowl as the franchise last made it in 1969 when the Chiefs dominated the Vikings in Super Bowl IV. Tennessee last played in a Super Bowl in 1999 as the Titans lost to the Rams, 23-16.

Total Notes

Tennessee has seen its total results produce a stalemate (5-5) on the road this season and the defense (12.5 PPG) has really stepped up in the playoffs. Since Tannehill took over at QB for the Titans, the club has scored 20-plus points in all six of their road games with him under center and that?s produced a 4-2 ?over? mark.

Kansas City has watched the ?over? go 6-3 at Arrowhead Stadium this season, which the easy high side (50 ?) ticket in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the game versus Houston, the Chiefs have hosted five playoff teams and the ?over? is 5-0 in those games and the defense (28.9 PPG) hasn?t been sharp.

The Chiefs have seen balanced total results (5-5) with Reid in the playoffs. Vrabel has seen the ?under? connect in two playoff games as coach. In the Week 10 matchup from Nashville, the pair combined for 67 points and the ?over? (49) rather easily but it was also helped with 41 points in the second-half.

Prior to this game, the ?under? was on a 3-0 run in this series dating back to 2014 and that includes the 2018 Wild Card matchup. In the Titans? 22-21 upset over the Chiefs, the total closed at 44 ?.

AFC Championship Trends

Since 1970, home teams have posted a 34-15 record in the AFC Championship.
In the last 10 years, hosts have gone 8-2 (80%) in the AFC Championship. During this span, bettors have seen their fair share of close calls and blowouts as five games were decided by double digits and the other five by six points or less.
In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 SU and 28-20-1 ATS.
Favorites and Underdogs have gone 5-5 ATS in the last 10 AFC title games.
Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
Kansas City has made two appearances in the AFC title game, going 0-2 both SU and ATS.
Tennessee has gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in the AFC Championship, both of those contests took place on the road.


NFC Championship

Green Bay at San Francisco

Sunday, Jan. 12 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Packers Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Green Bay: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U

Opening Odds

Both San Francisco and Green Bay won at home in the divisional round as the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the 49ers as a 7 ?-point home favorite with a total of 45.

Head-to-Head

The 49ers rolled the Packers in a Sunday night affair in Week 12 as three-point favorites, 37-8. San Francisco built a 23-0 halftime lead as Green Bay's lone touchdown came in the third quarter on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. Rodgers was limited to 104 yards passing, while 49ers' quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 61-yard scoring strike to tight end George Kittle.

That loss was that last one for Green Bay, who has won six straight games, including the blowout of Seattle in the divisional round. Since 2012, the 49ers have captured five of seven meetings with the Packers, while Green Bay has lost in three of its past four visits to the Bay Area.

The Packers are 1-4 in their last five games against NFC West opponents since 2018, while the 49ers are 2-3 since the start of last season against NFC North foes.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay won its first playoff game since 2016 in a divisional round victory over Seattle at Lambeau Field. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur improved to 1-0 in the playoffs after winning his playoff debut, while Rodgers owns a 10-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter. However, the Packers have lost their last two NFC championship games, each on the road at Seattle (2014) and Atlanta (2016). The last time Green Bay won an NFC title game on the road came in 2010 at Chicago, which also marked their most recent trip to the Super Bowl, which they won against Pittsburgh.

San Francisco dominated Minnesota in its first playoff game since the 2013-14 season in a 27-10 blowout in the divisional round. The 49ers are playing in their first NFC championship since 2013, when they lost at Seattle. San Francisco is hosting its first conference title game since 2011 when the Niners were tripped up by the Giants in overtime, 20-17.

The Packers and 49ers met in the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 1995-1998 as Green Bay won three of four times. In 2012 and 2013, San Francisco knocked out Green Bay twice, including at home in the divisional playoffs, 45-31 in 2012. The only time these teams have hooked up in the NFC Championship came in 1997 at Candlestick Park as the Packers won, 23-10.

Total Notes

In the Week 12 meeting between the pair, the Packers were held to a season-low eight points and the the 'under' (48) was never in doubt despite San Francisco scoring 37 points. Green Bay also laid an egg in its other trip to California this season, losing 26-11 at the L.A. Chargers in Week 9.

Green Bay?s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ?over? started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ?under? produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. Sunday's 28-23 win over Seattle watched the 'over' (45) connect.

Including the result versus the Seahawks, the Packers have watched the 'over' go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games and five of them have taken place on the road.

The Niners' 27-10 win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round watched the 'under' (44 ?) connect easily. Including that result, San Francisco has watched the ?under? cash in its last four playoff games.

Prior to the Minnesota outcome, San Francisco watched the ?over? go 7-2-1 down the stretch before starting the season with a 5-1 ?under? mark.

NFC Championship Trends

Since the NFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 32-17 record in the title game.
In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in this title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record in the NFC Championship. Those last four wins by the road teams weren't easy as the victories came by seven points or less and three were decided by exactly three points.
Favorites have gone 32-17 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in the NFC Championship.
Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
San Francisco has been in the NFC title game 15 times, going 6-9 overall. Surprisingly, the club has gone 4-5 at home but this will be the first NFC Championship played at Levi's Stadium. Its last trip to the NFC Championship came in the 2013-14 season and they lost to Seattle 23-17 on the road.

 

[Udog]

NFC & AFC Betting Angles
Marc Lawrence

And then there were four.

NFL?s version of the ?Final Four? kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises have certainly been the buzzword.

That?s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 19 of 41 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being both the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots last year. More important, 12 of the 19 underdog winners went on to win the Super Bowl, going 12-7 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in the big game.

Let?s take a quick look at what?s worked and what hasn?t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

What A Rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. See the Tennessee Titans this postseason.

It?s no coincidence teams who have managed to rush the ball for 100 or more yards in conference championship games are 29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS.

And when they manage to crack the 100-yard barrier on the ground against foes coming off a satisfying double-digit win, they zoom to 20-5 ATS in these games.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow more than 129 rushing yards per game at home this season.

Situationally Speaking

The oddsmakers have done a nice job overall balancing the books during this round, with favorites checking in at 31-28-1 ATS, and home teams 30-29-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, underdogs of 8 or more points are 12-6 ATS.

That could be music to the ears of Tennessee backers.

Gravity Alert

While high-scoring games tend to be the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game have a tendency to come back to earth harder than a skydiver with a faulty chute.

Consider: only 11 of the 19 teams that scored 40 or more points in their Divisional Round victory have managed to win in this round, while going 6-12-1 ATS as well.

Worse, if these same teams are at home they are just 3-9 ATS.

That puts Kansas City on hard ground this Sunday.

Over There

Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the odds makers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

Its what happens when there have been 34 OVERS and 23 UNDERS with 2 pushes in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 49 or more points going 7-3-1 OVER.

Stat Of The Week

The Green Bay Packers are 9-1 in one-possession games this season. They were 2-6-1 in one-possession games last season.

 

[Udog]

311GREEN BAY -312 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

313TENNESSEE -314 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 19, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
144.561
Kansas City
144.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+7 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Game 311-312
January 19, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
136.406
San Francisco
139.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+7); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Saturday, January 19

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GREEN BAY (14 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 3) - 1/19/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 199-145 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (11 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 4) - 1/19/2020, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Sunday, January 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 7-13-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing San Francisco


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[Udog]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Championship Sunday odds: Punch your ticket on the Titans' train now
Jason Logan

This Sunday will be the Titans? fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they?re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors.

One of the four remaining NFL playoff teams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami, but that?s still a few weeks away. Football bettors are more concerned with this Sunday?s conference championship games and where the odds will end up by kickoff.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the spreads and totals for the NFC and AFC Championship Games, monitors the line adjustments and market trends, and helps get you ahead to the moves with his best bets to make now and which ones you should make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: TENNESSEE TITANS (+7.5) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Titans are making believers out of bettors, who snatched up the opening odds in Las Vegas which had Tennessee as big as +9.5 in Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game. Most books opened this matchup at Chiefs -7.5 (after watching that early action at select sportsbooks) but that number could get walked down to a clean touchdown sooner rather than later.

The vig on Kansas City -7.5 has been discounted as books try to entice some handle on the home side. The Chiefs? thrilling comeback was something to behold, digging themselves out of a 24-0 hole versus the Texans in the Divisional Round, but they did have to fall into that hole to begin with.

This will be the Titans? fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they?re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors. If you?re taking the Tennessee train to the book this weekend, grab the Titans and the hook now just to be careful.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7)

According to the early reports, bookies are expecting even action on the NFC title game. The spread has mostly stayed at a touchdown with some brief drops to San Francisco -6.5 before buyback on the chalk returned it to seven.

Both teams are well backed at the book, so this line should stay steady heading toward kickoff Sunday night. With the 49ers getting roped into parlays and teasers and Cheeseheads going all in on the Packers? moneyline, those pots should continue to balance the overall handle for this game.

If you do like the Niners, there are some spots rolling back the price on San Francisco -7 and that discount in vig could indicate a line move to -6.5. Plug this sucker into your Covers Live App, be patient, and shop around when the alert hits your phone.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 51.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs spotted Houston a 24-point head start and still covered as double-digit faves in the AFC Divisional Round. That offensive showcase ? scoring 51 points in 45 minutes or 1.13 points per minute (yikes) ? is fueling the early move up for this total, which has climbed from 51 to as high as 52 points at some markets.

The Titans defense has been the backbone of Tennessee?s postseason run, locking down the Patriots for 13 points then absolutely draining the energy from the top scoring attack in the NFL, holding Baltimore to 12 points in the Divisional Round. But this Titans offensive attack can put up points of its own ? as bettors saw in the second half of the regular season ? and just scored 28 against a very good Baltimore stop unit.

The Chiefs are 6-3 Over/Under inside Arrowhead Stadium this season, allowing about four points more per home game than on the road. The weather in Missouri will cool down by the weekend but the extended forecast for Sunday is calling for clear skies and little to no wind as of Monday morning. If you?re thinking about betting the Over for the AFC Championship Game, you will want to get it quickly before we see all books serving 52 points or higher.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Over/Under for the NFC Championship Game opened at 45 and has remained still in the 12 hours since posting. There has been slight tinkering with the juice at select sportsbooks but nothing big that would indicate a knee-jerk move up or down.

The 49ers defense looked reborn in the Divisional Round with key bodies returning at all levels. San Francisco was limiting opponents to less than 15 points per game in the first 13 weeks of the season but watched that stop unit come apart due to injuries in the final four weeks of the schedule. The Packers defense also looked good in the Divisional Round, getting some crucial stops and sacking Seattle QB Russell Wilson five times.

Looking at past conference championship games, there has been a market trend toward the Under. In the last three NFL postseasons, the totals for the AFC/NFC title game has ticked downward by a couple points off the opener in four of those six matchups. That said, the Over is 4-2 in those championship contests. If you?re on the fence about the total, see if Under money shows up again (and it might with an Over/Under count of 2-6 this postseason) and then make the call.