CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


LOOKING AHEAD

The Super Bowl may be more than two weeks away but there's no reason why we can?t put down some bets on future Super Bowl MVPs.

The best long shot we see is a running back who took the majority of his team?s snaps last week - a team that's favored by more than a touchdown at home this week. Tevin Coleman out-touched Raheem Mostert 22 to 12 and ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns versus a Top-10 defense in the Divisional Round. This week, he gets Green Bay?s No. 23 DVOA rush defense and could be facing the Kansas City Chiefs? No. 29 DVOA rush defense on Super Sunday.

A running back hasn?t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did it in 1998 and since that time 13 quarterbacks, four wide receivers, three linebackers and a safety have won the award. But with Coleman sporting +8,000 odds to win the MVP, we're taking a stab as the other three top running backs still in the playoffs are +1,200, +2,500 and +3,300, giving Coleman great value.


KING OF THE HILL

Tennessee and Kansas City battled in Week 10 this year with the Titans getting the victory, 35-32. It was the first game that Patrick Mahomes played after his knee injury and the Kansas City QB set season highs in attempts (50), completions (36) and yards (446). Tyreek Hill also set season highs in receptions (11) and yards (157) and will square off again against the Titans? secondary that allowed 88.4 yards to teams? No. 1 receivers this year, which was the second-highest amount in the league.

With Travis Kelce going off for 10-134-3 last week, we expect the tight end to receive a lot of attention. If Hill sees single coverage, he could top his yardage totals in as little as two plays. Hill has not topped 75 yards since Week 10 versus the Titans, which is why we're getting a reasonable total of 75.5 receiving yards. He wasn?t that far off, though, hitting 60-plus yards in four of his last games ? those extra dozen yards are just one missed tackle for the 4.25 speedster.

We aren?t expecting a repeat of Week 10, but with Kelce stuffing the stat sheet last week we like the chances of Hill getting loose on Sunday. Take the Over 75.5 receiving yards on Hill?s total.


CAMPING WITH COLEMAN

Remember when we tooted the horn of Tevin Coleman? Good, because there's more Coleman value to be had this weekend. Coleman saw 46 percent of the backfield snaps last week with Raheem Mostert getting 34 percent and No. 3 Matt Breida getting a handful of late touches and absorbing 17 percent.

The 49ers ran 68 offensive plays versus the Vikings and ran the ball 47 times and there's no reason for them to deviate from a successful game plan if they get an early lead again.

Coleman averaged 4.1 yards per carry this year, but that number jumped north of five over the last four weeks of the season ? in limited usage. The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per carry (24th) on the year and 5.2 yards per carry in Weeks 15-17 (28th). Last week, the Packers didn?t face much of a running threat in Seattle, but they did allow the 49ers to run for 112 yards on 5.1 ypc back in Week 9. We're grabbing the Over on Coleman?s rushing total of 42.5 yards.


TANNEHILL TURNOVER

Even without their best pass-rusher in Chris Jones, the Kansas City Chiefs still managed five sacks on a mobile QB last week. Jones is still questionable against a Tennessee offensive line that has had its QB sacked just once in its last three games. However, if K.C. can get up early ? easier said than done ? and force Ryan Tannehill to pass, it will greatly increase its chances of creating pressure.

In games that Tannehill has passed more than 23 times (six games), the QB has thrown five interceptions. Although Deshaun Watson never threw an interception in his 52 passes last week, there were plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs - spots that they can capitalize on this Sunday.

We are taking the Over on Tannehill?s Over 0.5 interceptions as Kansas City has averaged 0.9 interceptions at home this year.

 

[Udog]

Total Talk - Championships
Chris David

Divisional Playoff Weekend Recap

After watching the ?under? go 4-0 in the Wild Card Weekend, the low side trend continued in the Divisional Playoffs on Saturday with another pair of winning tickets. The ?over? tickets finally showed up on Sunday and bettors pressing their bets with first and second-half wagers may?ve been able to recoup their losses from the previous six outcomes as they cashed easily. Through eight games, the ?under? sits at 6-2 in this year?s postseason.

Playoff Betting Results

Conference Championship History

Prior to last year?s 37-31 overtime shootout at Arrowhead between the Patriots and Chiefs, the ?under? was on a 6-1 run in this title game. Meanwhile, the NFC has been the exact opposite with the ?over? go 4-1 in the last five title games and even though last year?s result between the Rams and Saints went ?under? the number, the pair still combined for 49 points. That particular game was the fourth NFC Championship to see overtime in the last 10 years and we?ve seen even total results (2-2) in those tilts despite the extra session.

Championship Total History (2009-2019)

Year AFC (UNDER 6-4) NFC (OVER 6-4)
2018-2019 New England 37 at Kansas City 31 (OT) - OV 56.5 Los Angeles 26 New Orleans 23 (OT) - UN 55
2017-2018 New England 24 vs. Jacksonville 20 - UN 46 Philadelphia 38 vs. Minnesota 7 - OV 39
2016-2017 New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 - OV 49.5 Atlanta 44 vs. Green Bay 21 - OV 61
2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 - UN 45 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 - OV 47.5
2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 - UN 52.5 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) - OV 47
2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 UN 57 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 - UN 40.5
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 - UN 49.5 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 - OV 48
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 - UN 49 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) - UN 42
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 - OV 38 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 - UN 42
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 - OV 40 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) - OV 54

The Kansas City Chiefs have watched the ?over/under? go 1-1 in their two appearances in the AFC Championship while the Titans have watched the ?over? connect in their two visits to the conference title game. Make a note that Tennessee played both games on the road and they averaged 28.5 points per game while going 1-1.

Green Bay has played in the NFC Championship seven times and the ?over? has gone 5-2 in those contests. San Francisco has made more title appearances than any other NFL team, 15 in total. The club has gone 6-9 and the ?under? has gone 6-4 in the 10 games listed with a total.

Best Bet Selections

For the second consecutive weekend, I fired six plays and ended up breaking even at 3-3. It didn?t look good early with a 0-3 mark on Saturday but the ?over? winners on Sunday got us to 6-6 through 12 picks of the playoffs. As always, you can hear all the analysis for the AFC and NFC Championship on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Tennessee at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) opened this matchup at 51 ? and the number has been pushed up to 52 ? as of Thursday. A few Las Vegas betting shops are holding 53 despite low temperatures in the twenties expected at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. Tennessee (10-8) and Kansas City (9-8) have both leaned to the ?over? this season and based on their offensive performances in the Divisional Playoff round, you can see why the number quickly moved up.

Even though points are expected by the oddsmakers, the old boxing adage ?styles make fights? certainly fits this year?s AFC Championship matchup and your total wager will likely be correlated to your side wager.

We?ve seen the Titans knock off three straight division winners on the road and they did it with their defense, holding the Texans, Patriots and Ravens to 14 points or less. To be fair, Houston laid down in Week 17 and New England wasn?t an offensive power this season by its standards but holding the Ravens to just three scores (2 FGs, 1 TD) on the road was eye-opening. If Tennessee completes this run, it would be unprecedented and the finale is easily the toughest test.

Kansas City is coming off a 51-31 win over Houston last Sunday in the Divisional Playoff round at home and the offense was unstoppable after the first quarter as quarterback Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns. Mahomes improved to 2-1 in his young career in the playoffs and the Chiefs haven?t been held to less 31 points in any of those games.

This contest is a rematch from Week 10 of this year's regular season and Kansas City will be looking to avenge a 35-32 loss to the Titans at Nashville. Mahomes was on fire in that game too, throwing for 433 yards and three touchdowns but key penalties and special teams mistakes cost the Chiefs. They put up seven scores that day at Nissan Stadium, settling for four field goals and they missed two attempts as well. If Kansas City connected like it did in the final 45 minutes last Sunday, it probably would?ve posted 50-plus on Tennessee as well. The Titans only put up 371 yards of offense against the Chiefs in their win and seven of the 35 points came from the Tennessee defense, a fumble return touchdown.

Touchdowns have been a common theme for Tennessee and it?s a large reason why it?s been a great ?over? team since QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter in Week 7. The Titans have only made eight field goals all season, which is absolutely crazy. In their last eight games, Tennessee has seen the endzone 40 times and it?s only kicked one field goal and none in the playoffs. Crazy, righ!? You don?t have to be a genius to know that putting sixes on the board instead of threes are huge for ?over? tickets and the high side has gone 9-3 with Tannehill at QB. In the playoffs, the defense has helped the ?under? go 2-0 despite the team averaging 24 points per game.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

What?s impressive about the offensive numbers for the Titans is that they?re doing it with a ground attack behind running back Derrick Henry. Knowing Tannehill has only completed 15 passes in two playoffs games is another stat that seems unbelievable. I thought Tennessee would run out of gas last week but I was proved wrong and so were many other bettors. So why fade now? Well, the offense has been on fire but what happens when it doesn't click? The Titans scored 28 last Saturday but 14 of those points came on two big plays and the other pair of touchdowns were set up with short tracks (35 yards, 20 yards) from Baltimore turnovers. We're all well aware that the KC offense showed us how dangerous it could be last week but during the regular season, it averaged 24.3 PPG after scoring 30-plus points in its previous game. Tennessee has only seen one total close in the fifties this season, an inflated Week 10 number versus Houston, and the ?under? cashed. Even though Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has Mahomes, let's not forget that we've seen him tighten up in the postseason before and I could totally see him bleeding the clock early and often. My leans for this game are Tennessee Team Total Under (21 ?) and the Under (53) for the game as well. I?ll call it Kansas City 26 Tennessee 15.


Green Bay at San Francisco (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers sent out a solid opening total of 45 on the NFC Championship and the number has held steady as of Thursday at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) and other major books in the US.

San Francisco has produced great back-and-forth total results (8-8-1) all season and that includes the ?under? (44 ?) ticket in last Saturday?s 27-10 home win over Minnesota in the Divisional Playoffs. Green Bay watched the ?over? (45 ?) cash last Sunday evening as it held off Seattle 28-23 at home and that result snapped a 4-0 ?under? run by the Packers. Including that outcome, the ?under? has gone 10-7 for the Packers this season and that includes a 5-3 mark on the road.

Similar to the AFC Championship, this is a rematch from the regular season and the first encounter wasn?t close as San Francisco blasted Green Bay 37-8 on the Sunday Night Football spot in Week 12. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers couldn?t do anything that night, getting held to 198 total yards. The unit was 1-of-15 on third down conversations and he was sacked five times. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garropolo didn?t have to do much (14-of-20, 253 yards, 2 TDs) as the 49ers led 23-0 at halftime and they could?ve been up 31-0 if they didn?t settle for two short field goals (29, 27 yards).

The ?under? (48) cashed in that game and the books have dropped the number three points for the rematch. Both clubs have been solid defensively down the stretch, especially San Francisco. The unit flustered Rodgers in November at home and they were incredible last week against Minnesota, surrendering just 147 total yards to QB Kirk Cousins and a Vikings team that traveled well this season. Rodgers is certainly a step above Cousins but the key to beating or competing with San Francisco is running the football and hoping the offense makes mistakes. Green Bay went 10-1 when rushing for 100-plus yards this season but the one loss came to 49ers ? so maybe that theory could be tossed.

Rodgers has gone 4-5 in his career versus San Francisco, 0-2 in the playoffs, and that includes a 1-3 mark in Northern California. Unfortunately for him, the defense allowed 36.3 PPG at San Francisco in the losses and just three points in the lone victory. Buying the Packers based on the narrative of Rodgers alone is certainly justified. He?s 10-7 all-time as a starter in the postseason and the Packers have never been held under 20 points with him under center. That production has helped the ?over? go 11-6 in his playoff starts and that includes a 6-1 run to the high side entering this game. In his playoff wins, the Packers have averaged 30.6 PPG. So if you expect Green Bay to be competitive on Sunday then you?re assuming points to follow suit.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

This isn?t an easy game to handicap but I believe the point-spread is fair and San Francisco is definitely the better team but I can also see how bettors are afraid to go against Rodgers, similar to fading Tom Brady or Drew Brees ? two guys already sent packing this postseason. This 49ers defense is the real deal and their numbers against non-divisional opponents has been even better this season, especially at home. The game will be closer than the first meeting and Green Bay will score more than 8 points but my lean would be to the Under (45). San Francisco wins a tight one ? let?s call it 23-17.

 

[Udog]

posted in wrong thread...

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Andy Reid is 1-5 in conference championship games and 1-8 against the Titans. Tennessee (+6.5) ran ball for 225 yards, upset the Chiefs 35-32 in Nashville in Week 12, despite giving up 520 TY. Titans scored GW TD with 0:23 left. Tennessee is 9-3 SU with Tannehill at QB; they won their last five road games, scoring 31 ppg; Titans are 7-3 SU on road TY- they?re 4-2 ATS as a road underdog. Tennessee won its last four games with KC, winning last three by total of six points, with previous three wins all coming at Arrowhead. Over is 8-3 in Titans? last 11 games. Chiefs won their last seven games (under 5-2), five by 10+ points; they?re 4-2-1 ATS this year as a home favorite. Since ?06, favorites are 5-4 ATS in conference title games without a #1 seed

Packers (+3) were held to 198 TY (91 PY) in a 37-8 loss to 49ers in Santa Clara in Week 12, just their 3rd loss in last 12 series games- they haven?t lost since. Packers won their last six games SU, giving up 15 or fewer points in four of six games- they?re 3-1 ATS as road underdogs TY. Four of their last five games went under the total. 49ers won last three games, scoring 29 ppg; SF is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY- over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Last six years, #1 seeds are 7-4 ATS in this round. 49ers are in playoffs for first time in seven years; LaFleur is in his first year as a HC. Garoppolo is 1-0 in playoff games. Rodgers is 10-7. Green Bay won three of its last five visits to Santa Clara.

 

[Udog]

NFL conference championships betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Tennessee linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship Game at Kansas City. However, that didn't impact the line, which has been at Titans +7 since Tuesday.

It?s on to conference championship weekend in the NFL playoffs. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

TENNESSEE TITANS: The defense is a bit dinged, with a few players questionable at Kansas City on Sunday, including linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Adoree? Jackson (foot). Wideout Adam Humphries (ankle), who has missed the past six games, is also questionable. But The SuperBook?s oddsmakers aren?t concerned about those injuries. ?No move for any of the Titans guys,? Osterman said. Tennessee is a 7-point underdog in this 3:05 p.m. ET kick.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) was limited in practice for the home tilt against Tennessee, but he was questionable in last week?s divisional win over Houston and had 10 receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns. ?Kelce would be worth a half-point if he didn?t play, but he?s expected to play.? The Chiefs are 7-point favorites.


Weather Watch

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Snow and freezing rain hit Kansas City on Friday, but the weather is expected to be clear for the 12:05 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday. That said, it?ll be cold, on the order of 20 degrees with 10-15 mph winds making it feel chillier still. ?It?s not expected to have much effect on the scoring. The total has actually gone up. We took some bets on Over 52, and we?re now at 53.? The total opened 50.5.
Pros vs. Joes

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Friday morning, neither of the conference championship games had a Pros vs. Joes flair. By Friday night, that had changed. ?We hadn?t seen too much sharp money come in, except for some early action on Tennessee, which is why that line came down,? Osterman said of a speedy drop last Sunday from Chiefs -9.5 to -7.5. ?But we have started to see more public Chiefs money, especially on the moneyline and in teasers. If this trend continues, then I could see classifying it as a Pros vs. Joes game.?

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


GRABS FROM THE BACKFIELD

Only the Indianapolis Colts have allowed more receptions to running backs than the Tennessee Titans this year. Mike Vrabel?s defense is averaging nearly six receptions and 49 yards to opposing backs per game. Through two playoff games, Tennessee has allowed 15 catches for 138 yards to New England and Baltimore?s running backs.

Last week Patrick Mahomes didn?t look Damien Williams? way in the passing game often because he didn?t need to as Travis Kelce and the receivers were getting open at will against the Texans? 26th-ranked pass defense. Williams played 62 of K.C.?s 64 snaps and fellow RB LeSean McCoy is banged up, so the volume is not the question. Will Mahomes look underneath for Williams versus the Titans? No. 21 pass defense? We are willing to put some dollars down to say he will.

Grab Williams? Over 28.5 receiving yards.


GOING DEEP

Last week, the Chiefs QB threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns. In the offensive onslaught, Mahomes had a long completion of 48 yards, something the reigning MVP has been doing since his return from injury. Since Mahomes came back in Week 11, the quarterback has had a completion of over 43 yards in five of his eight games and three of his four home games.

With Tyreek Hill and Marlon Hardman providing the ability to take it long on any touch as well as Travis Kelce?s skillset, Mahomes can turn a simple bubble screen into 45 yards or wait for a Hill double move and air it out. Either way, we like the QB?s chances of completing a pass longer than 43.5 yards.


WATKINS DIET

Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins only has 12 receptions in his last five games, but the veteran receiver has turned those grabs into 211 yards, good for 17.6 yards per reception. Watkins has had a reception of 17 yards or longer in four of his last five games and is 9-5 O/U on the year of long receptions of 16.5 yards.

We are getting on the Over 17.5 yards for Sammy Watkins? longest reception.


DOUBLE DOSE

Love the Chiefs to win but don?t feel great taking 7 points? Check out the Chiefs? double result prop bet (-120). If K.C. wins the first half and then wins the game, you win. It makes cheering for the Chiefs? first-half moneyline easier than 1H -4 and can give you action for the entirety of the game.

The same idea goes for the 49ers, but as they currently sit at 7.5-point favorites, their double result is a little juicier at -130.

If you?re looking for bigger odds in a similar market, take a look at result and total. If K.C. wins but the total goes Over 53.5, bettors can bank +140. And if you like San Francisco and the Under but don?t want to play the spread, take the 49ers and Under 46.5 for +150.


ADAMS VS. THE SHERMANATOR

If you?ve noticed, we haven?t put a lot of action on the Green Bay at San Francisco game. We like teasing the Under with the KC Over as well as San Fran -1.5 with KC -1, some Tevin Coleman props and that's about it. The San Fran defense is too scary a unit to bet against and the 49ers showed us last week that they can pound the ball if they want which kills the market in their passing prop game. The last lean we have on this game is the San Francisco secondary ? mainly Richard Sherman ? containing Packers? Davante Adams.

Adams is coming off a big game last week (8-160-2) which could help us get a larger number on his receiving total this week. But the GB No. 1 has also gone over 100 yards receiving in each of his last four games and collected four TDs along the way. However, San Fran didn?t let Adams get loose in its Week 12 matchup as the receiver grabbed seven passes, but for just 43 yards. The Niners also allow the fewest yards to opposing WR1s this year (54.9 ypg) and held Stefan Diggs to two catches and 57 yards last week. We like the Davante Adams Under 83.5 yards a lot more than we like the Over.


RUSHING QBS

Apparently, losing means hitting your rushing prop total if you?re a quarterback. Last week, three of the four losing QBs hit the Over on their rushing totals. This week, Ryan Tannehill and Aaron Rodgers are the underdogs heading into the conference championships. Here are our best QB rushing props for the weekend:

Tannehill has rushed for 11 and 13 yards with a touchdown through his two playoff games and those aren?t numbers we can get behind for a rushing total. However, if the Titans get up on the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is more than capable of creating with his legs as his 53 yards on seven carries versus Houston showed. Lamar Jackson ran for 143 yards against the Titans last week and with Mahomes averaging just 15 yards rushing per game this year, we get a great number on his rushing total. Take the Over on Mahomes? rushing total of 19.5.

Last week, the Green Bay QB took off five times for 14 yards. With his team jumping out to an early lead, Rodgers didn?t have to get creative. Sunday could be a different story with the Packers as 7.5-point underdogs. Rodgers has played 17 playoff games in his career and has won 10 of those. In those wins, he has averaged 9.1 yards rushing per game but has averaged a robust 28 yards per game on the ground in his seven playoff losses. Rodgers could also be under constant pressure from the San Francisco defensive front. Look to take the Over on Rodgers? rush total of 12.5 yards.


TOTAL TEASER

The Titans knocked of the Ravens, but Baltimore still managed to put up 530 yards of offense and made 29 first downs compared to Tennessee's 15.

It?s safe to say that Lamar and the offense left some points on the board as they scored just 12 points. We doubt Mahomes and an offense that can score three TDs in less than four minutes will do the same. We?re going to tease this total down six points to 46.5 and hit the Over.

For the nightcap, we are going to move the posts the other way as San Francisco?s defense looked dominant last week and held Rodgers to just 104 yards passing in Week 9. The Niners look to be at full strength defensively and are keeping rushers fresh with constant substitutions. If Rogers is facing third-and-long often, the Packers will struggle to move the ball. We?re teasing this total up to 51 and taking the Under.


RBS BY THE BAY

With the 49ers relying less on Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing game and more on the running game last week, we?re quite content on taking the team?s best running back who led the backfield in snaps and out-touched his closest competition 22 to 12.

We liked San Francisco?s commitment to giving a running back a full series as opposed to constantly swapping for fresh legs. Kyle Shananhan seemed to prefer Tevin Coleman running the ball than Raheem Mostert, as the former took most of the snaps in the first and third San Francisco possessions.

Coleman ran for 105 yards and two TDs versus Minnesota?s Top-10 rush defense and will get to run loose versus Green Bay?s No. 23 DVOA rush defense that allowed two rushing TDs to Marshawn Lynch last week.

We are jumping on the anytime Coleman TD (+110) that we will pair with his Over 43.5 rushing yards. If you?re looking for a bigger pay out, snap up Coleman to score the first touchdown of the NFC Championship at +800 odds.


SHORT STORY

Through the eight playoff games, six of them have had a one-yard touchdown including all four games in the Divisional round last week. In total, eight one-yard TDs have been scored in the playoffs with Tennessee having scored one in each round.

Amazingly, a one-yard TD has been scored in each of the Titans? last 10 games (including playoffs) with a total of 15 one-yard plunges occurring over that stretch with the Titans scoring seven of them.

Where are we going with this you may ask yourselves. Well, have you heard of the shortest TD scored prop? Its total is always 1.5 yards, making a team that has a knack for scoring one-yard TDs profitable. Currently, the Under sits at -125 which tells us we are sniffing in the right direction.

With a total of 53 points, we are expecting a high-scoring game in Kansas City which will hopefully give us a handful of chances to score a one-yard TD.

Take the Under 1.5 yards for the shortest touchdown.


TEASING THE POINT-SPREAD

This is as square as a six-point teaser gets, but we love the favorites and are more than happy to take them at -1 or -1.5.

Tennessee will have a chance to make history by knocking off three divisional winners but can it really go +185, +375 and +270 three weeks in a row on the road? We love taking the Chiefs and their quick-striking offense by less than a field goal. We are teasing the Chiefs? spread down to -1 from -7.

As we mentioned yesterday, we think points will be hard to come by for the as their team total sits at 17.5 ? about as low as it gets in the playoffs. San Francisco doesn?t even need to score TDs in the red zone to cover by 1.5 points. The 49ers rushing attack could be big trouble for the Packers rush defense that gave up nearly 120 yards a game. (10th most in the league). We are teasing the points down to SF -1.5 from 7.5.


THE STREAK ENDS IN ARROWHEAD

Everyone knows about the Chiefs? offense and how it erased a 24-point deficit in the amount of time it took us to get a snack and a beverage. But the Chiefs? defense isn?t getting talked about enough. They gave up nearly 450 yards of offense which looks bad on paper, but the majority of it was with Houston trying to catch up.

Outside of the opening drive's 54-yard TD, the Chiefs? defense went: punt, TD, FG, turnover on downs, fumble, punt and missed field goal to end the first half. That was in a half where the Chiefs allowed 24 points. Houston would go on to score just one more TD and finish the day 5-for-15 on third downs, 1-for-5 on fourth downs and ran for under 100 yards.

With the Titans only throwing for 154 yards in BOTH playoff games, we don?t see them passing their team total of 22.5 points especially if the Chiefs can force Tannehill into third and long and use the strength of their pass rush to bring the kicking unit on the field.


SEVEN-MINUTE TIMER

Last week, the Texans scored two touchdowns in the first five minutes of the game at Arrowhead. This puts the Chiefs? record to 5-1 with a touchdown being scored in the first eight minutes of a game at home.

Tennessee averaged seven points per first quarter in Weeks 15-17 and has also had success in hitting the early TDs. The Titans scored a TD on their second possession last week, their first possession in the Wild Card game and scored or conceded a touchdown in the first eight minutes of a game in each of their last five games leading up to the playoffs.

We are looking for an early score in the early game on Sunday and taking a touchdown scored before 8:00 elapsed (-120).

 

[Udog]

Titans at Chiefs Preview
Tony Mejia

Titans at Chiefs ? 3:05 PM EST - CBS
Betting Odds: Kansas City -7, Total 53

Going back on the road for a fourth straight do-or-die situation means the AFC's No. 6 seed isn't sweating a daunting trip into Arrowhead.

Tennessee (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS) cruised past a Texans team resting their starters in Week 17 to secure its playoff bid regardless of what the Steelers did. The Titans then went into New England and humbled the Patriots 20-13, clinching an upset win on a pick-six of the last pass Tom Brady may ever throw as a member of the team he?s represented for two decades. Last week, they went into Baltimore as a 10-point underdog and shut down an offense led by the guy sure to win MVP honors this season, Lamar Jackson. A 14-win Ravens team that set numerous offensive records was held to just 12 points.

Kansas City (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) knows exactly what it will be up against, having already lost to the Titans in Nashville back in Week 10 in a game that Derrick Henry took over. That has been the key to this entire postseason run for Tennessee, although seeing its defense excel has certainly also helped. Henry has facilitated that too, helping them stay fresh by keeping them off the field for long stretches due to his remarkable performances bleeding the clock and gaining chunks of yardage on the ground.

Henry gained 188 yards in Tennessee?s 35-32 win on Nov. 10 that was clinched when Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker had a 52-yard field goal attempt blocked on the game?s final play. Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards in his return from a dislocated kneecap suffered in mid-October and hasn?t lost since, so Kansas City is definitely confident it can continue to thrive at home, where it has won five straight and burned Houston 51-31 in last week?s divisional playoff round. He?s got a healthy offense around him to try and build upon torching the Titans? defense for 530 yards despite being down multiple key offensive linemen.

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce form a combination that stretches a defense to a point where it?s impossible to get everyone covered. The Titans? offensive line has helped spring Henry to 588 rushing yards on 96 carries over the last three weeks. He broke a 68-yard scoring run against the Chiefs defense in their November win and has shown no sign of slowing down, looking completely recovered from a hamstring injury that hampered him in December. While this will be the eighth Kansas City game this season that closes with a total of 50 or higher, this will only be Tennessee?s second contest featuring a number this large. Houston beat Tennessee 24-21 in Week 15 in a game that closed at 50.5, so this figure, which opened at 52, may be daunting. VI totals expert Chris David provides analysis on the total of the AFC Championship right here.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 1-8 all-time against Tennessee, which is wild considering his teams have largely been excellent throughout his career. The Titans have beaten his Chiefs in three consecutive meetings (?14, ?16, ?19), doing so under three separate head coaches and prevailing as an underdog each time. Two of those contests have been played at Arrowhead. Mike Vrabel is going to have no problem getting his guys to believe they can pull off another upset, especially since players have been quoted saying they prefer the buzz of a road atmosphere in raucous stadiums in Foxboro, Baltimore and now Kansas City as opposed to Nissan Stadium, which often fails to reach full capacity. Tennessee is 7-3 SU and ATS outside of Nashville, which includes five straight wins and covers since Dec. 1.

The Titans are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance since coming up a yard short of potentially tying the Rams in their first season after leaving the Oilers name behind in 1999. Kansas City hasn?t reached the NFL?s showcase event since prevailing in Super Bowl IV back in 1969. This will be just their third championship game appearance since then, having fallen at Buffalo in the ?93 season and last year in OT at home against New England. Reid won Super Bowl XXXI as an assistant with Green Bay but has only advanced past this round as a head coach, coming in 1-5 in championship games in his stints with the Eagles and Chiefs. All of Vrabel?s experience this deep into the postseason has come as a player.

While reigning MVP Mahomes played well in last year?s playoff run and has been largely sublime throughout his career, this uncharted territory for counterpart Ryan Tannehill, who came into the season as Tennessee?s backup and never won in Miami. He?s done a nice job staying within himself during this run, showing off his wheels when necessary. He threw a TD pass to Adam Humphries with 18 seconds left to win the first meeting between these teams and threw for two scores and 181 yards. He also fumbled once and was sacked four times, but may catch a break in avoiding Kansas City?s most feared defensive lineman, Chris Jones.

Jones, a defensive tackle who has blossomed into a star, is nursing a calf injury that may keep him out and severely hinder the Chiefs? ability to defend against Henry and get after Tannehill. He hurt himself in practice prior to the win over Houston and hasn?t been able to work, throwing his ability to get out there into question. Kelce should be fine despite some knee discomfort. Meanwhile, Humphries, who has missed the past six games since suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 1, appears set to return for Tennessee. Linebacker Jayon Brown also looks like he?ll be back from a shoulder issue, while fellow LB Rashaan Evans and CB Adoree Jackson are expected to get past foot injuries and suit up. Key Titans corner Logan Ryan was ill this week but is also expected to be fine.

The Titans already became the first No. 6 seed to win a playoff game since 2010 this postseason and are hoping to become the third bottom-seed to reach the Super Bowl since the current format came into play, joining the ?06 Steelers and ?10 Packers. Tennessee will be looking to become the fifth team ever to win three consecutive road games and play for it all. Weather in Kansas City is expected to be frigid, with temperatures dropping to seven degrees on Sunday night. For this afternoon game, the high is likely to be in the 20s, but winds won?t be too much of a factor according to AccuWeather, which expects gusts to top out at a rather mild 10-15 miles per hour. Mahomes and the Chiefs will certainly like that.

 

[Udog]

Packers at 49ers Preview
Kevin Rogers

Packers at 49ers ? 6:40 PM EST - FOX
Betting Odds: San Francisco -7 ?, Total 46 ?

The top two teams remaining in the NFC square off for a spot in Super Bowl LIV in Miami on February 2. The 49ers and Packers own a rich playoff history that saw the two legendary franchises hook up seven times since 1995 in the postseason, including in four consecutive seasons from 1995 through 1998. Although Green Bay knocked San Francisco out of the playoffs in three of those four opportunities, the 49ers eliminated the Packers in 2012 and 2013.

San Francisco (14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) closed the regular season with a crucial road victory at rival Seattle to secure not only a first-round bye, but home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 49ers didn?t let that opportunity slip through their fingers in a dominating 27-10 rout of the Vikings in the divisional playoff round to easily cover as seven-point favorites. San Francisco ended an 0-6-1 ATS run as a favorite of six points or more, although the 49ers posted a 5-2 record in those contests.

The imposing 49ers? defense limited the Vikings to seven first downs, one week after Minnesota recorded 22 first downs in an overtime upset of New Orleans. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo didn?t dominate in his playoff debut, but he led the 49ers on a pair of first half touchdown drives, while throwing for 131 yards on 11-of-19 passing. The Niners? ground attack ate up the Vikings? defense for 186 yards on 47 carries, paced by 105 yards and two touchdowns from running back Tevin Coleman.

The Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) finished off their home slate at 8-1 this season by holding off the Seahawks, 28-23 in the divisional round. Green Bay was cruising as 4 ?-point favorites by building a commanding 28-10 advantage heading into the final minute of the third quarter. Seattle scored a pair of touchdowns to creep within five points, but Green Bay backers breathed a sigh of relief when Seahawks? quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked on a two-point conversion to avoid Seattle trimming the deficit to three points.

The Seahawks actually outgained the Packers by 31 yards, but Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay to its third divisional playoff win since 2014 by throwing for 243 yards and connecting on two touchdowns with Davante Adams. Green Bay picked up its sixth consecutive victory since getting wiped out San Francisco (more on that in a moment), but only two of those wins came against playoff teams (Minnesota the other in Week 16). The Packers closed out the lights on Lambeau Field this season by covering six of nine home games, compared to a 5-3 ATS road mark.

Green Bay covered in three of four opportunities as a road underdog this season, including victories at Chicago, Dallas, and Minnesota. The lone setback came at Levi?s Stadium in Week 12 against the 49ers in a 37-8 rout as three-point underdogs. Green Bay was making its second trip to the west coast in three weeks after posting only 11 points in a 26-11 defeat to the Chargers in Week 9. The offense didn?t travel once again to the Golden State as the Packers trailed at halftime, 23-0, while the only Green Bay touchdown came late in the third quarter from Rodgers to Adams.

From a totals perspective, the NFC Championship games from 2014 through 2016 all saw contests finish with 50 combined points or more and eclipse the ?over.? The 2017 NFC title affair hit the ?over? of 39 when the Eagles routed the Vikings, 38-7, but the ?over? streak ended last season with the controversial finish between the Rams and Saints that remained ?under? the total of 56. VI totals expert Chris David provides plenty of analysis on the total of the NFC Championship right here.

The Packers are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010 when they beat the Bears on the road in the NFC Championship. Green Bay has since lost twice in the conference title game at Seattle in overtime in 2014 and at Atlanta in 2016, while the Packers are 1-4 in their past five road playoff games. The 49ers last reached the Super Bowl in 2012 after edging the Falcons in the NFC Championship before falling to the Ravens. Since winning their last Super Bowl in 1994 (in Miami), the 49ers own a 1-3 record in the conference title game, which includes a home overtime setback to the Giants in 2011.

NFL expert Joe Nelson provides insight on how Green Bay couldn?t convert when it counted in the earlier loss to San Francisco, ?The Packers wound up 1-15 in third downs and 1-3 on fourth downs while Rodgers was sacked five times while under consistent duress in the first meeting. Those third down results present a great contrast to last week?s win over Seattle when the Packers had nine third down conversions in 14 tries, including two huge late conversions to seal the game and keep the ball away from Wilson. Green Bay was out-gained on the season and didn?t fit the statistical profile of a 13-3 team, but ultimately sits just one win away from returning to the Super Bowl.?

Both Rodgers and Garoppolo will be focal points on Sunday, but Nelson notes that the ground game can be the key to victory, ?Neither team was very effective stopping the run this season ranking outside the league?s top 20 in run defense on a per carry basis and the ground game likely will be the key in this contest. San Francisco?s offensive numbers were much stronger on the ground, third in the league in rushing yards per game but less successful on a per carry basis.?

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Best Bets - Sides
Matt Blunt

NFC Championship
Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5)

Green Bay fits a lot of things I like to see for a playoff game of this magnitude, and they might not be the things that everyone prefers to see when it comes down to it. Getting smoked by the 49ers in the regular season game should actually be viewed as a positive for the Packers in my view, as there is really nothing more motivating then getting another crack at a guy/team that absolutely spanked you the last time you played. Competitiveness is a funny beast, and for guys that make it to the pros in any sport, the desire to beat teams that beat up on you bad is always going to be high.

Furthermore, the fact that the Packers got smoked in that regular season game also suggests that they've got to change everything in their approach for this rematch. That works in their favor in the sense that the 49ers can't have a great idea of what to expect from Green Bay, and if the Packers execute, they will be well on their way.

Oh and there is this: the last four NFC Championship games that were non-division rematches from the same season have all seen the team that failed to cover ATS in the regular season ? Green Bay in this case ? come back and cover the number in the Conference Championship game; going 2-2 SU in the process. The Rams were the most recent team to fit this profile last year when they controversially got by New Orleans after losing SU and ATS to the Saints (45-35) in the regular season.

But oddly enough, the other three occurrences all included either the Packers or 49ers, with each side being on the wrong end of this equation. In the 2016 title game between the Packers and Falcons, Green Bay got blasted by Atlanta after covering the number in a 1-point regular season defeat. Back in 2011, the 49ers beat the Giants SU and ATS in the regular season, and then coughed up things to New York in the title game. The other occurrence was the only the Seattle/Green Bay title game where the Packers got the ATS win in their OT loss, after getting blasted by 20 in the regular season meeting. That latter scenario sounds awfully similar to this week's game doesn't it?

Aside from that history, the fact that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have fallen short in this game twice over the past six years is another motivating piece of data for Rodgers and company to overcome. Green Bay's QB was even quoted earlier this year about being on the ?back 9? of his career, and to have another NFC Championship loss on his resume would surely eat at him, and potentially change the conversation about his career. Those are never great reasons to land on a particular side, but in this case, and this big number, I do think they've at least got to be acknowledged.

Schematically, Green Bay knows they've got to change basically everything from that first meeting and it starts with the blocking up front. If the Packers O-line can give Rodgers adequate protection back there, and Green Bay's running game can help neutralize that pass rush, the Packers will be cooking with gas this time around.

The 49ers defense may be healthier now, but they are still a unit that got lit up pretty good down the stretch this season, and if they aren't getting home with that pass rush, guys have been picking them apart. Rodgers is cerebral in that part of his game, and it's what I expect to see plenty of this week.

Finally, ?experience? is often overused and nearly impossible to quantify, but when there is a lack of it, it's easy to point out and there has to be concerns. That's the situation this young 49ers team is in, as Jimmy G and company are all getting their first significant taste of playoff football (as starters), and that can bring plenty of nervousness as well. Should an early drive or two stall with a FG opportunity or three-and-out(s), and the 49ers find themselves far from being in rhythm, things can snowball very quickly for favorites at this stage of the year; I mean, just look at the Ravens a week ago. And like Tennessee in that game last week, the more time you allow the underdog to play from in front, the more confidence that underdog will gain.

Without question the 49ers have built a highly sustainable, and highly talented young core with this roster, but in the big five-year picture of this franchise, I've got a feeling we will be looking back at this NFC Championship game as one that was a big time, and needed learning experience for the 49ers. You've seemingly got to suffer heartbreak in this league before you can reach the mountain top, and a loss this week before going on to bigger things in the years to come for San Francisco is a very likely five-year result for this organization in my view.

This game will be the one where that young, prolific, team runs into the crafty old veteran who wants one more kick at the can in terms of chasing down a title. We saw this play out with the Pats/Chiefs AFC title game a year ago, and a year later, I believe we get the identical result. The road team going out and winning the game outright as an underdog to give their future HOF QB another crack at lifting a Lombardi Trophy.

Best Bet: Green Bay +7.5

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Best Bets - Totals
Matt Blunt

AFC Championship
Tennessee at Kansas City

As touched on by colleagues in this piece from earlier in the week, the total for the AFC Championship game has seen plenty of support for the 'over' already, pushing an opener of 51/51.5 up to it's current range. After what we saw from the Chiefs offense a week ago in putting up 50+, and the fact that these two teams already met earlier this year and that game saw 67 total points put up, you can easily see where those 'over' sentiments find their support. Yet, I can only look at the 'under' here for a variety of reasons. The first of which, coincides with the belief that it will be the Kansas City Chiefs who do end up advancing from this contest.

Although I couldn't have been more wrong last week in backing the 'under', conceptually, the history that Andy Reid's teams find playoff success in games that cash 'under' tickets still is applicable. Last week there was a lot of uncommon stuff that happened to put the Chiefs in a big hole early, and from the point KC found themselves down multiple scores, they had no choice but to turn up the tempo and aim to put up 40+ to win comfortably as they did. I wouldn't bank on fumbled and blocked kicks to turn up against the Chiefs again this week, so there likely won't be a need to be forced into that type of game as it is.

Furthermore, Tennessee and their style of offense isn't interested in playing those high-scoring games in general. The Titans preference to run the ball and then run it some more in the 2nd half already lends itself to 'unders', evident by their 0-2 O/U record in these playoffs so far. But the problem with that lies in the idea that Tennessee has to figure that they are more likely going to need to put up plenty of points to win the game against this opponent.

So, going low on this total is not particularly something I'd advocate if you do like the Titans on the spread or outright, as the last team to make a Super Bowl after going 'under' the total in all of their playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl was the 2015 Denver Broncos and the 2019 Titans are a much different squad. Sure, both liked to rely on the running game and strong defense, but Denver got to ride that style of play at home that year, a benefit Tennessee doesn't have.

However, as I said at the top, I am of the mindset that Kansas City rectifies the wrongs from this game last year and does indeed find a way to win the game ? at least straight up. Which brings me back to Reid's great run of 'unders' in playoff wins over the past 10+ years. It may not have worked last week at all, but it's still now 5-1 to the 'under' in Reid's last six playoff wins dating back to the 2006 season, and with a Super Bowl berth on the line, and less rust/sloppiness to worry about early like we saw from the Chiefs last week, I do expect KC's defense to be at their best from the outset.

Remember, after falling behind 21-0 quickly to Houston, that KC defense managed to hold down a very explosive Houston attack to just 10 points the rest of the way, when the Chiefs had to get those stops to climb back into the game. Many in the market may have questioned how good the Chiefs defense was down the stretch given some questionable competition, but they've been balling out for multiple months now.

And as I said last week, when the reality and perception of a given unit on a football team (in this case, KC's defense) is in a transitional phase in the market, those are precisely the spots where you can find plenty of value going against the grain. This total climbed out of the gate with the usual Monday morning knee-jerk reaction from the market, and as Sunday gets closer, recreational bettors will look to last week's 50-point outburst by KC, and/or the 68 points first meeting between the Titans and Chiefs and follow suit with the 'over' play.

I'm expecting that conceptually I was nowhere near as wrong last week's final score suggested, as Andy Reid's playoff history of 'unders' in wins and how good the Chiefs defense actually is relative to what is perceived suffered nothing but a setback. I've got another shot at being correct in that arena again this week, and hopefully there aren't many fluky things early to completely throw off the expected trajectory of this game. It's not like I haven't fallen victim to being a week/game early with my approach in the past, and hopefully that's all it was with KC last week, as the Chiefs earn another Super Bowl berth on the back of a strong defensive performance for the full 60 minutes.

Finally, one more stat to pound this point home. The last seven teams to score 40 or more points in a Divisional round win (New England last year, Jacksonville in 2017, New England in 2013, New England in 2012, San Francisco in 2012, New England in 2011, and Green Bay in 2010), ended up with a 2-5 O/U record in the Conference Championship game with an average of 46.4 total points scored. That's nearly a full TD lower then the current price now, and that's too hard for me to pass up.

Best Bet: Under 53

 

[Udog]

Super Bowl 54 - Chiefs vs. 49ers

Super Bowl 54 will take place on Feb. 2, 2020 at Hard Rock Stadium from Miami Gardens, Florida and this year?s matchup will feature the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers.

Super Bowl 54 Betting Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an opening line of Pick ?em for Super Bowl 54 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

The early money came in on the Chiefs and the SuperBook is now holding Kansas City -1 while a few other betting shops in the United States have gone to 1 ?.

The ?over/under' opened at 51 ? at the SuperBook and early wagers moved the line to 52 ?.

Chiefs vs. 49ers - Record Breakdown

Overall Record

Chiefs: 14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS, 10-8 O/U
49ers: 15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 9-8-1 O/U

Away Record

Chiefs: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U

Record vs. Playoff Teams

Includes Divisional and Championship Results

Chiefs: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 7-1 O/U
49ers: 4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U
Head-to-Head - 49ers & Chiefs
Last Meeting: 2018 Regular Season - Kansas City 38 San Francisco 27
The Chiefs defeated the 49ers 38-27 as 5.5-point home favorites in Week 3 of the 2018 regular season. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdown passes in the win while San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo sustained a season-ending knee injury in the loss.
Super Bowl Betting History - 49ers & Chiefs

San Francisco

The 49ers have appeared in the Super Bowl six times, going 5-1 overall. San Francisco won four Super Bowls in the 1980's and one in 1994 before losing in its last appearance in 2012. The 'over' has cashed in four of San Francisco's last five Super Bowl appearances, including the 34-31 loss to Baltimore on a 48 total.

Super Bowl History - San Francisco

Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XVI 1982 Pontiac, MI San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -1 (48) San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 Favorite-Under
XIX 1985 Stanford, CA San Francisco vs. Miami San Francisco -3.5 (53.5) San Francisco 38 Miami 16 Favortie-Over
XXIII 1989 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -7 (48) San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 Underdog-Under
XXIV 1990 New Orleans, LA San Franciscovs. Denver San Francisco -12 (48) San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Favorite-Over
XXIX 1995 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. San Diego San Francisco -18.5 (53.5) San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 Favorite-Over
XLVII 2013 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Baltimore San Francisco -4.5 (48) Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31 Underdog-Over

Kansas City

Kansas City owns a 1-1 all-time record in the Super Bowl and the lone loss came in the first installment to Green Bay, a 35-10 decision. The Chiefs rebounded in Super Bowl IV, defeating Minnesota 23-7 as 12-point underdog.

Super Bowl History - Kansas City

Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
I 1967 Los Angeles, CA Green Bay vs. Kansas City Green Bay -14 (N/A) Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 Favorite
IV 1970 New Orleans, LA Kansas City vs. Minnesota Minnesota -12 (39) Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Underdog-Under

 

[Udog]

Super Bowl Total Analysis

Super Bowl 54 Total (O/U) Analysis

We are still quite a ways out from the big game, but all this prep time before the Super Bowl is great for bettors like myself who love to dig deep into the data, historical and otherwise, to see if any lightly discussed edges arise.

With this year's total already getting bumped up quite a bit initially, you will see many arguments for both sides of the full game total in the coming days. But there are other ways to attack the total for the Super Bowl, and they include things like first quarter and first-half total plays as well. And while it can be easy to dismiss whatever happened in a Super Bowl years ago as non-relevant to this specific game, similar historical scenarios still exist and we can use them to potentially help strengthen a position.

So before we get into the historical 1st Quarter and 1st Half results for the Cheifs and Niners this specifc year, let's take a broader trip through history to see if there is anything that becomes a shiny enough data nugget to invest in.

Super Bowl 54 Over-Under (O/U) Betting Odds

Odds provided by FanDuel (IN, NJ, PA & WV only)
Odds Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+
1st Quarter: Over 10 (-125) or Under 10 (+105)
1st Half: Over 27 (+100) or Under 27 (-120)
Full Game: Over 54 (-110) or Under 54 (-110)

Super Bowl History: 1st quarter

While I don't have the historical lines for 1st quarter totals in the Super Bowl, it was easy enough to go through the previous 53 games box scores and come away with some findings. I mean, the Super Bowl is a game where nervous starts are quite prevalent for teams, as the magnitude of the game really can hit guys early. Also, no team wants to fall behind big early, so conservatism tends to rule the day in 1st quarters of the big game.

Through 53 played Super Bowls, the average combined point total we've seen in the 1st quarter of those games is 8 points. Nine different times we've had scoreless first frames, and oddly enough, those full game totals in those scoreless first quarter games has ended up with a 5-4 'over/under' record overall. So those of you that may already be eyeing an 'over' play for this year's game, it may pay off to wait and save part of your stake for some In-Game Wagering.

Should you get a slow start ? three of those nine scoreless 1st quarters have come in the past five years ? the in-game total will be a lot lower then the current line, and we have seen teams explode following that slow start. That wasn't able to happen in last year's game, but the four other times a scoreless 1st quarter in the Super Bowl has happened this century, we've seen the games finish with 62 (SB LI), 52 (SB XLIX), 45 (SB XXXIX) and 61 (SB XXXVIII) points. Keep that in mind as you follow this game along.

But what about past Super Bowls that have had an identical scenario to what we've got this year.

Well, here are some of those 1st quarter betting facts.

-- Super Bowls that have been played with a #1 seed vs #2 seed have a 1st quarter scoring average of 9.307 points in 13 previous occurrences, but when you isolate #1 NFC teams vs #2 AFC Teams, that number does rise up to 11.714 points in seven occurrences. With this year's number juiced to the high side of 10, there is no real great edge here alone.

-- Super Bowls that have been played with a total that closed in the 50's have a 1st quarter scoring average of 8 points in 11 previous occurrences, but only twice (SB XXIX and SB XIX) were there more then 10 points scored in the 1st quarter. Ironically enough, the San Francisco 49ers were involved in both of them.

-- Super Bowls that have closed with a point-spread of -3 or less have a 1st quarter scoring average of 6 points in 15 occurrences, and again have only cleared 10 points twice in that time. Even still, the seven times it's happened this century, the full game O/U record is 5-2 to the 'over', as it's happened six times this past decade alone.

-- Super Bowls played in Miami have a 1st quarter scoring average of 9.8 points in 10 occurrences, as this location has actually been much more kind to 1st quarter 'over' bets. The last four Super Bowls played in Miami have all finished with at least 10 points in the first frame.

-- Super Bowls that have closed with the AFC team has the favorite (of any number) have a 1st quarter scoring average of 6 points in 28 occurrences, and have only hit 10 points or more three times in 15 tries this century.

If you are to average all those first quarter historic point totals that have had scenarios that apply to this year's game, you get a number of 7.82 points. That's nearly a full FG below this year's current number, and if 10.5's start popping up, going low may be the way to go.

Super Bowl History: 1st Half Over-Under Notes

Continuing on with those same applicable historical scenarios for this year's game, let's take a look at how some of these 1st halves have played out.

-- Super Bowls that have been played with a #1 seed vs #2 seed have a 1st half scoring average of 23.769 points in 13 previous occurrences, but when you isolate #1 NFC teams vs #2 AFC Teams, that number does rise up to 25.14 points in seven occurrences.

-- Super Bowls that have been played with a total that closed in the 50's have a 1st half scoring average of 21.18 points in 11 previous occurrences, but only twice (SB XXIX and SB XIX) were there more then 24 points scored in the 1st half. Again, the San Francisco 49ers were involved in both of them.

-- Super Bowls that have closed with a point-spread of -3 or less have a 1st half scoring average of 20.33 points in 15 occurrences, and have hit 27 or more points in four of those games.

-- Super Bowls played in Miami have a 1st half scoring average of 21.4 points in 10 occurrences. And just like 1st quarter wagers, the Miami site has been kind to high-scoring first halves, as 30+ 1st half points have been scored in three of the last six times the city of Miami has hosted.

-- Super Bowls that have closed with the AFC team has the favorite (of any number) have a 1st half scoring average of 19.928 points in 28 occurrences, and have only hit 27 points or more six different times. That's a 21.4% clip.

So what can we take from all that history?

Well, what does stand out is how much the 'under' in both the 1st quarter and 1st half this year appears to be a solid play. You average out all those averages for the same scenario's this year's game is facing, and the 1st half total comes out to 21.322, with a 1st quarter total of 7.82 (mentioned above). Both of those numbers give you plenty of wiggle room to still stay low a the current numbers.

But let's say for instance, we eliminate the ?Super Bowls played in Miami? historical angle simply because it carries the least significance. Then you've got 1st quarter averages of 7.325 points scored, and 1st half averages of 21.302. Not a big change by any means, but it does bring up one historical fact that was too juicy to keep to myself.

If you go back through all the Super Bowls and look for one that had seeds of #1 vs #2 playing, a point spread of -3 or less, a total in the 50's, and the AFC team as the favorite, you get one Super Bowl that fits all that criteria:

Super Bowl LI between New England and Atlanta, the game that will forever be remembered as the 28-3 choke job by the Falcons.

That just so happens to be a game that current San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has to remember vividly, as he was the Falcons offensive coordinator then. Funny how the connections can come full circle, and that was also one of those games where we got a scoreless 1st quarter, 24 points in the 1st half, and ultimately an 'over' ticket cashing for the full game.

Will this year's total result be similar?

2019 Team History ? Kansas City Chiefs

Historical angles are always nice, but current data on these teams is ultimately more important as they are the guys out on the field. So, let's go through a similar exercise with both teams.

-- Kansas City games had 10 or more combined points scored in the 1st quarter 12 times in 18 games this year, landing on 10 exactly in five of those occurrences. The average total 1st quarter points in Chiefs games this year was 11.55 points per game.

-- KC themselves put up an average of 5.38 points in the 1st quarter, and were blanked six different times

-- Kansas City games averaged 28 points in the 1st half through 18 contests, but they've been held at 27 or less 11 different times this year, including a stretch of eight straight games to finish the year.

-- In KC road games this year, they averaged total points of 11.25 in the 1st quarter and 26.875 in the 1st half. Basically right where the numbers are for the Super Bowl, as six of those eight road games had at least 26 total points in the 1st half.

2019 Team History ? San Francisco 49ers

-- San Francisco games averaged 10.722 points in the 1st quarter. 12 of their 18 games this season also finished with at least 10 points scored in the opening frame.

-- SF themselves put up an average of 6.66 points in the 1st quarter this year, and were only blanked four times, one of which was their heavy monsoon game in Washington

-- San Francisco games averaged 24.05 points combined in the 1st half, and landed on 27 or more points nine different times (50%)

-- In SF road games this year, they averaged total points of 12 in the 1st quarter and 23.5 in the 1st half, as only half of those eight road games finished with a 1st half score of 27 or more points.

As you can tell, it's this year's numbers from both teams that are highly influential in posting the current numbers the markets are dissecting, and in all instances, both teams have results right around the totals for the 1st quarter and 1st half. It's why you've got to be willing to dig for edges elsewhere, and it's why I brought up those historical Super Bowl angles first. They can be used as some out of the box thinking to help formulate your plan of attack for this game.

Final Thoughts:

With minimal to take from the two respective teams track record this year, it's the historical angles that side overwhelmingly with the 'unders' in the 1st quarter and 1st half that I can't seem to ignore. Remember, it's not like we haven't seen great offenses (KC) go up against great defenses (SF) in the Super Bowl before, so even with both organizations propensity for putting up points in bunches this year, I'm not sure that will be the case this season.

Cautious starts have been the norm for Super Bowls this entire century ? only three of 20 Super Bowls this century have opened up with 11 or more points in the 1st quarter ? and I'm not sure that changes here. Having two weeks to prepare for this game is a big part of those past results, and I would expect both defensive coordinators to have their units extremely ready to go from the outset.

KC's got plenty of confidence they can come back from a multi-score deficit given how their first two playoff games have gone, but I'm not sure they want to tempt fate for a 3rd time in that regard, especially in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco doesn't want to be forced to start chucking the ball all over the yard should they find themselves with an early deficit to climb out of, meaning they'll look to pound the rock early and often and adjust from there. If that's how this game plays out, it's only good news for going 'low' early.

So it's the historical side that I'm siding with for this game, as it's one where taking the 'under' 10 in the 1st quarter and under 27 in the 1st half is where I'll start. If one or both of those cash, I'll look to add an in-game 'over' play to the card, because history also suggests that slow starters in the modern game ? Super Bowls from the 1980's on ? do tend to loosen up as the game goes on and teams figure out what's working.

And if it's a shootout from the start, well then it's no different then losing two units on any other play this year. Chalk it up as losses and move on. Remember, just because it's the Super Bowl, it doesn't mean that you've got to go all out or expose your bankroll completely. It's just one more game.

But it is a game everyone wants some piece of, and from a total's perspective, I'm sticking with the first 30 minutes of action, at least from a pregame standpoint.

Super Bowl 54 Over-Under Best Bets
1st Quarter Under 10 (+105)
1st Half Under 27 (-120)

 

[Udog]

WATKINS CORNER

Lost in all the Patrick Mahomes hoopla is the production of Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins. Through two playoff games, the veteran receiver has 190 yards on nine catches and one touchdown. Watkins has catches of 60, 48 and 28 yards this postseason as the third- or fourth-best option in the K.C. passing game.

Watkins could get loose in San Fran?s Cover 3 if the deep safety is distracted by Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, possibly leaving Watkins in single coverage. With Watkins running about 40 percent of his snaps out of the slot, he has the chance to test and expose different members of San Francisco's secondary.

Watkins? yardage total sits at 48.5 yards, a number he has gone Over in four of his last six games. Another Watkins bet we love is the Over 20.5 yards for his longest reception. The Chiefs WR is 6-1 O/U on that total across his last seven games.


PASS THE BALL, JIMMY

Over his last four wins dating back to Week 16, San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 12.75 completions on 19 passes for 185 yards. Jimmy G has thrown the ball more than 34 times just four times this year and is running an offense that has rushed 89 times in its last two win-or-go-home games.

The most frequent runners this year were the Baltimore Ravens who led the league with 37.7 rush attempts per game ? the 49ers are averaging 44.5 rushes per game in the playoffs.

With Garoppolo?s passing attempt total at 32.5, we are recommending the Under as the 49ers running game should enjoy the Chiefs? No. 29 DVOA rush defense, keeping the QB in hand-off mode.


IS IT IN YOU?

One of the more popular prop bets at the Super Bowl is what color will the liquid be that is dumped on the winning coach. The last 10 championship showers have been orange (4), blue (2), none (2), yellow (1) and purple (1) ? clear hasn?t won since 2007.

The current odds are as follows:
? Red +150
? Clear/ Water +300
? Lime/Green/Yellow +325
? Orange +400
? Blue +500
? Purple +1800

If you?re looking for an edge: Andy Reid was seen drinking lime-colored sports drink back in Week 15. Red is most likely the lowest odds because both teams share that color. Reid was doused with Yellow Gatorade back in 2013 after beating the Eagles. Last year, the Patriots got coach Bill Belichik with some blue drink and the year before the Eagles got Doug Pederson with a yellow bath.


UNDECIDED

Not sure who to take in Super Bowl 54, take a look at the Team to Score First Wins - No bet for +130. This bet offers great value and does all the work for you in regard to choosing sides. If San Francisco scores first ? something it has done in four of its last five games ? then you will be cheering for Kansas City.

The Chiefs have hit the "No" in both of their playoff games as the Texans and Titans put up the first points while the 49ers scored first in their two playoff games but had the Team to Score First Wins - No hit in four of their final five regular-season games.


SPECIAL MVP

Vegas expects Super Bowl LIV to be a close game as the Kansas City Chiefs are just 1.5-point favorites. Of the last 12 Super Bowls, eight have been decided by eight points or less which means one big play could lead to the crowning of the game?s MVP. On Feb 2, that big play could come from the Chief?s special teams.

K.C. return man Mecole Hardman has 4.33 wheels and was third in the league in yards per return. He was also one of seven players to take a kickoff to the house (104 yards). The wide receiver also returns punts and has the ability to break a big play and change the game.

We are looking at Hardman to do his best Desmond Howard impression and take home the MVP honors thanks to a big special teams play. Hardman is currently paying +6600 to win the MVP.


RUNNING INTO PROBLEMS

Damien Williams has seen 29 of the Chiefs? 30 running back carries in the playoffs but has gained just 92 yards against the No. 22 and No. 10 rush defenses. Should we expect the running back to top his rushing total of 53.5 yards against San Francisco?s No. 2 DVOA defense that held Aaron Jones to 12-56-1 and Dalvin Cook to 9-18-0?

Over their last five games, the 49ers have allowed an average of 44.6 yards to opposing teams? leading rusher. The Niners have a theme of not giving up big gains on the ground as the longest rushing play, they have given up in the last six weeks was a 15-yard run ? they have also held two of their last five opponents to a long run of under 10 yards.

We are taking the Under 53.5 rushing yards for Williams.


OH, SAY CAN YOU SEE

The Over/Under for the national anthem sung by Demi Lovato sits at two minutes. Over two minutes is the heavy favorite at -200 and the Under two minutes is paying +150. Heading into the 2019 Super Bowl, the average length of the anthem was one minute 55 seconds (n=28).

Last year, the length was set at one minute 45 seconds and Gladys Knight hit the Over, clocking in at two minutes and one second. However, the Under has hit in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls.

One of the most recent versions of Lovato singing the national anthem ? McGregor Vs. Mayweather in 2018 ? clocks the singer at two minutes 12 seconds in what looks like a visibly nervous performance. The female singer pays +600 if she omits or forgets a word.

We are trusting the juice and leaning on the Over.


LACES OUT

Although Chiefs? kicker Harrison Butker has attempted just one field goal so far in the playoffs, he finished the season hitting nearly 90 percent of his FGs, good for a Top-7 finish. Butker was also a perfect 13-for-13 from 40-49 yards and had long of 56 yards.

His kicking opponent, Robbie Gould, finished 28th in FG% (77.8%) but has made all five of his kicks this postseason including a season-high 54-yarder last week. The San Fran veteran is also a perfect 13-for-13 in his nine career playoff games.

The 49ers could make things more difficult for Mahomes in the red zone while Kansas City?s red zone defense was the 8th-best unit in the league, allowing a TD in 51 percent of its opponents? RZ possessions.

We like the Over 3.5 field goals at -115 or if you prefer one kick over the other, both kickers' totals sits at 7.5 with the Over paying -130.

 

[Udog]

101SAN FRANCISCO -102 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season in the current season.




NFL
Dunkel

Championship

Sunday, February 2

San Francisco @ Kansas City

Game 101-102
February 2, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
141.310
Kansas City
146.778
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 1
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-1); Over




NFL
Long Sheet

Championship

Sunday, February 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 3) vs. KANSAS CITY (14 - 4) - 2/2/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Championship

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

Super Bowl Betting Trends & Angles

Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will be the 54th installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020 from Miami Gardens, Florida

Before you start handicapping the matchup and prop wagers, you should check 54 betting angles and trends that our staff have uncovered for this year?s Super Bowl.

1 ? Patrick Mahomes is the first QB from a Big 12 school to start a Super Bowl. Also, Mahomes is the first QB from a Texas university (Texas Tech) to start a Super Bowl.

2 ? Twice in Super Bowl history a team has been held without a touchdown. The Dolphins (Super Bowl VI) and Rams (Super Bowl LIII) each scored exactly three points in losses, but no team has ever been shut out in the Super Bowl.

3 ? Three times an AFC West team has been listed as a favorite in the Super Bowl and has lost outright. The Broncos twice (Super Bowl XXII and XLVIII) and Raiders (Super Bowl XXVII). Those teams lost by 35, 27, and 32 in those defeats.

4 ? The last four Super Bowls played in an outdoor stadium have seen the underdog cash, including three outright wins. The Broncos (L), Seahawks (XLVIII), and Saints (XLIV) each grabbed the victory in the underdog role in these contests played in a non-domed stadium.

5 ? The 49ers have won five Super Bowl titles in franchise history. A victory against the Chiefs would tie the Patriots and Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles (6) in NFL history.

6 ? There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. The 2005 classic (See 39 below) featured the Eagles, who were coached the current boss in KC ? Andy Reid.

7 ? The 49ers are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history. San Francisco has won five of its first six Super Bowls, but are listed in the underdog role for the first time.

8 ? The Chiefs had eight games with a total of 50 or higher. Kansas City cashed the ?over? five times in those contests, with only one coming away from Arrowhead Stadium at Detroit in a 34-30 win in Week 4.

9 ? This will be the ninth Super Bowl television broadcast produced by FOX and the sixth for the announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. In the first eight Super Bowls on the network, the AFC-NFC and Favorite-Underdog results have split at 4-4 while the ?over? is 5-3.

10 ? There have been 10 Super Bowls played in Miami and San Francisco has played in two of them ? beating Cincinnati 20-16 in 1989 (XXIII) before routing San Diego 49-26 in 1995 (XXIX).

11 ? This is the 11th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The ?under? has cashed in seven of the 10 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season?s 13-3 win by New England over Los Angeles on a 56 total.

12 ? Kansas City stunned Minnesota 23-7 in Super Bowl IV, winning outright as a 12-point underdog. Double-digit underdogs have gone 5-9 straight up in the NFL finale but we haven?t seen a spread this high since 2008 when the Giants stunned the Patriots 17-14 in SB XLII.

13 ? The 49ers played four games in the Eastern Time Zone this season and the defense traveled well, surrendering 13.5 points per game (PPG) while going 3-1. The lone loss was a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in Week 13. Kansas City went 3-0 when traveling East and it averaged 32.3 PPG.

14 ? Amount of touchdown passes Mahomes has thrown against NFC West opponents in his career. Three of those 14 touchdowns came against San Francisco in a 38-27 home victory in 2018.

15 ? Only one player has won the Super Bowl MVP wearing the jersey number 15, which was Packers? quarterback Bart Starr in each of the first two Super Bowl victories. Mahomes is the favorite to capture the award at DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only).

16 ? The fewest combined points scored in a Super Bowl was 16, which came last season when the Patriots beat the Rams, 13-3. The previous low was 21 points posted in Super Bowl VII when Miami edged Washington, 14-7.

17 ? The Chiefs are making their third Super Bowl appearance. This marks the 17th time in Super Bowl history a team is making its third appearance in the big game. The first 16 teams posted an 8-8 record in their third Super Bowl affair with the Eagles being the most recent team in this situation, beating the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.

18 ? Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has gone 18-3 in the regular season following a ?bye? week and when playing with rest in the playoffs, he?s produced a 4-2 mark with rest. Kyle Shanahan has gone 2-2 with the 49ers when playing with rest, both wins coming this season.

19 ? In Super Bowl history, 19 times the winning team has scored between 30 and 39 points. The only point total that has not been posted by a winning team in the history of this game is 36.

20 ? The most combined penalties called in a Super Bowl was 20, which happened twice in 52 games. Dallas and Denver did so in Super Bowl XII and the Patriots and Panthers followed suit in SBXXXVIII.

21 ? Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 2-23 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The two winners that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau were the N.Y. Giants, who beat the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII, while New England held off Los Angeles in SBLIII, 13-3.

22 ? The Chiefs have allowed an average of 22.2 points per game in nine playoff contests coached by Andy Reid, while yielding 20 points or more six times.

23 ? Kansas City have scored at least 30 points in 23 games since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018. The Chiefs are averaging 34 points per game in 16 games played away from Arrowhead Stadium with Mahomes under center.

24 ? In Super Bowl 31, the Patriots led the Packers 14-10 after the first quarter and that?s the most combined points (24) scored in the first 15 minutes of the finale.

25 ? The 'under' has cashed 25 times in Super Bowl history. Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have finished 'under' the total, including in the last stadium played without a roof in Santa Clara in Super Bowl 50 between the Broncos and Panthers.

26 ? The longest time that elapsed in a Super Bowl before either team scored was 26 minutes, which occurred in SB38 between New England and Carolina. Despite the slow start, the pair combined 24 at the end of the first half and a SB record 37 in the final 15 minutes as the Patriots won 32-29 over the Panthers.

27 ? The 49ers averaged 27.5 points per game away from Levi?s Stadium this season. San Francisco topped the 30-point mark three times, including a season-high 48 points in a victory at New Orleans in Week 14.

28 ? Since Kyle Shanahan took over as coach of the 49ers, the club has averaged 28.3 PPG against NFC opponents in 12 games. SF has gone 8-4.

29 ? In Super Bowl 29 (XXIX), San Francisco blasted San Diego 49-26 which was the highest scoring all-time finale.

30 ? Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted 30 passes or more seven times this season, while throwing only 27 passes in the playoffs. Mahomes has attempted 30 or more passes 13 times this season, including twice in the postseason.

31 ? Mahomes has played in four playoff games, all at home, and KC has never been held under 31 points.

32 ?The Kansas City offense scored 32 points in a 35-32 road loss to the Titans in Week 10 of this year's regular season. Since Mahomes took in 2018 as QB, Kansas City has lost four games on the road despite scoring 32, 31, 51 and 40 points.

33 ? In their last four encounters against the NFC West, all coming in the 2018 regular season, the Chiefs allowed 33.3 PPG. To no surprise, the ?over? went 3-1 in those games while KC went 2-2.

34 ? Shanahan has called plays in five postseason games, two this year with the 49ers and three during his previous tenure as an offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons. He owns a 4-1 mark and those teams averaged 34 PPG.

35 ? Favorites have gone 35-17 straight up in the Super Bowl, while producing a 28-20-2 ATS mark. One game closed at a pick ?em, which is in the same neighborhood of the SB 54 number.

36 ? In the six all-time Super Bowl playoff appearances by San Francisco, the club averaged 36.5 PPG.

37 ? The most combined points scored in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl is 37, which came between the Panthers (19) and Patriots (18) in SBXXVIII.

38 ? Kansas City played in five primetime games this season and the combined points scored in those game was 38.6. The Chiefs went 3-2 while the ?under? produced a 4-1 mark. The 49ers went 6-1 in games played at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The ?over? went 4-2-1.

39 ? In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.

40 ? The most field goals made from 40 yards or more in a Super Bowl is three by Saints' kicker Garrett Hartley in their win over the Colts in SBXLIV.

41a ? The last time we saw back-to-back ?under? tickets in the NFL came in Super Bowl 41 when the Colts defeated the Bears 29-17. Coincidentally, that game was also the last Super Bowl played in Miami.

41b ? The 49ers scored more than 41 points three times this season, compared to only one occurrence by the Chiefs.

42 ? The amount of points allowed by the 49ers in two Super Bowls at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. San Francisco yielded 16 points to Cincinnati in Super Bowl XXIII and 26 points to San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX.

43 ? The most completions in a Super Bowl was 43, which is held by QB Tom Brady in Super Bowl 51 between New England and Atlanta. What?s more impressive is that Brady completed 22 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Falcons.

44 ? Washington Redskins running back John Riggins wore number 44 and he?s the only Super Bowl MVP that had a jersey listed in the forties. The most common range for SB MVP jersey numbers falls between 10 and 19.

45 ? The largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl is 45, which came in SBXXIV when the 49ers blasted the Broncos, 55-10.

46 ? The most points allowed by the 49ers this season, which came in a 48-46 victory at New Orleans in Week 14. In six of San Francisco?s other seven road games this season, the Niners yielded 21 points or less.

47 ? The longest reception made by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce this season went for 47 yards, which came against the Raiders in Week 13. The last time a tight end picked up a catch of at least 40 yards in the Super Bowl was Kevin Boss of the Giants, who hauled in a 45-yard reception in Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots.

48 ? There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.

49 ? San Francisco captured a 49-26 victory over San Diego in Super Bowl 29, which was the only time a team scored exactly seven touchdowns and extra points in a game. The 75 combined points was also the most ever scored in a Super Bowl.

50 ? The highest amount of passing attempts in a game this season by Mahomes was 50, which came in a 35-32 loss at Tennessee in Week 10. In that game, Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards.

51 ? The Chiefs scored a season-high 51 points in their 51-31 win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Playoff round.

52 ? Mahomes has thrown five passes of 52 yards or more this season, compared to seven such throws in 2018. Jimmy Garoppolo has connected on three passes of 52 yards or more in 2019.

53 ? 49ers' wide receiver Deebo Samuel averaged 53.5 yards per game during the regular season. That is the lowest amount of yards averaged per game by a team's leading wide receiver to play in the Super Bowl since 2017 when Philadelphia's Alshon Jeffery posted 49.3 yards per contest.

54 ? This is the first Super Bowl with a total of 54 points. In the four other Super Bowls with a total of 54 points or higher, the ?under? connected three times.

 

[Udog]

Super Bowl Historical Betting Stats & Trends:

Underdogs: 13-5 ATS last 18 (24-27-2 ATS all-time)
Over/Under 5-2 last 7 (27-25 all-time)

AFC: 26-27 SU & 24-27-2 ATS
NFC: 27-26 SU & 27-24-2 ATS

 

[baby johnson]

Super Bowl Historical Betting Stats & Trends:

Underdogs: 13-5 ATS last 18 (24-27-2 ATS all-time)
Over/Under 5-2 last 7 (27-25 all-time)

AFC: 26-27 SU & 24-27-2 ATS
NFC: 27-26 SU & 27-24-2 ATS

That?s a lot of equity

 

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - SB54

It's been a few weeks since I produced one of these pieces, and with all the historical digging that's been done leading up to Super Bowl 54, I thought it would be best to put out one more of these for the NFL season. Doing all that backtracking has been fun, but at this point I'm about ready to see the football in the air and this game kicked off. You can view my analysis on four early pieces below:

One more look at a couple historical angles is what will be presented here, and given that it's already known that Kansas City is my selection for this year's game, this piece may feel a bit like some confirmation bias to some. I get that you can find stats for pretty much everything these days and that's just how it is. Using or dismissing the following information is your decision, but there are two more historical ideas that I've found to favor the Chiefs this week that aren't being regurgitated like the ?team that wears white wins? I seemingly have seen at every corner during this research.

Some may view what I'm about to present as just as useless/coincidental as the jersey color and that's fine, but why leave some stones unturned?

Who's Hot

Since the NFL went to a six-team per conference playoff in the 1990 season, 22 of the 29 Super Bowl winners made the playoffs the year before

Experience is one of those words that gets chucked around a lot in this industry, and whenever it's used the notion of how to quantify a player or team's level of experience comes up. Without question, quantifying experience levels can be an exercise in absurdity, but this may be one of those scenarios where you can bring some measure of value to it. It's something that could be just as valuable at the beginning of the year in futures markets, but when just looking at the two teams involved in the Super Bowl, history has shown that recent playoff experience for teams has proven to be beneficial. Considering the Chiefs made the postseason a year ago, and San Francisco didn't, it does make this situation relevant this year.

In those 29 Super Bowls ? starting with the New York Giants win over the Buffalo Buffalo in Super Bowl 25 ? there were three years where both Super Bowl teams failed to make the playoffs the year prior (SB 34, 35, and 38), so we've got to omit those as well.

Now most of those years involved two teams that did make the playoffs the year prior, so the 22 for 29 run isn't as bad as it may seem for the 49ers this year, but it's still not a profitable situation for them. In that 29-year span, when we've had this identical scenario ? one team off a playoff season (KC) and one team not (SF) ? the team with playoff experience from the previous year is 6-4 straight up (SU).

However, since the NFL merger in 1970 ? starting with the SB 6 matchup as SB 5 was Year 1 for the NFL as we know it now ? teams with that profile are 13-6 SU all-time in the Super Bowl. That does tilt the scale a bit further towards the Chiefs this week, especially when you consider the New England Patriots aren't involved. Of the four Super Bowl wins in the past 29 for those teams lacking playoff experience from the year before, three of them involved the Patriots.

The most recent being when the Philadelphia Eagles knocked off New England, but the 2011 New York Giants fit that bill as well. New England was also on the right side of that coin back in 2001 when Tom Brady and New England won their first Super Bowl to start their dynasty, upsetting the Rams in one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history. The other game to fit the bill was when New Orleans knocked off Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts team back in the 2009 season, oddly enough the last time the Super Bowl was played in Miami.

But while San Francisco backers may take that Miami connection as a positive here, even that can be up for dispute. In the six other Super Bowls played in Miami (from SB 10 on), this occurrence has actually happened four other times (SB 10, 23, 29, and 33) and all four of those times, the team that had the recent playoff experience won the game outright. In all four of those wins, the winning team did enter the game as the favorite, but did post a 2-2 ATS record thanks to having some lofty spreads attached.

Again, the dispute there lies in that the 49ers organization was actually a part of two of those victories (SB 23 and 29), but with this year's spread in the range where you've just got to pick the outright winner, the straight up results seem a bit more important.

Granted, the argument that Super Bowls that were played 20+ years ago have nothing to do with this year's game is valid and will be where some choose to hang their hat, but if we can't learn from the past, what else do we have?


Who's Not

Since the start of the 2000 NFL season, Super Bowl teams that enter with the QB who had more regular season passing TD's are 6-13 SU, including 0-4 SU and ATS the past four years

Poking holes in this trend is possible as well as there have been multiple cases where one Super Bowl QB didn't play the same number of games during the year as the other one, but in terms of final tally numbers, that 6-13 SU number holds up. This year's game does feature the two QB's playing a different number of games thanks to Patrick Mahomes injury earlier in the year, but the final regular season tally went like this: Jimmy Garoppolo 27 TD passes, Patrick Mahomes 26 TD passes.

What may be most interesting about this angle is that with all those Super Bowls made by the New England Patriots and Tom Brady, we do have a measuring point specifically for him in proving the validity of this angle. Brady is 6-3 SU in his nine Super Bowl appearances, but all three of those defeats came when he finished the year with more TD passes then his foe, and four of his six wins came when he had fewer TD passes then his foe.

Brady's not involved in this year's game, but considering that big of a sample size for one man, it is hard to completely negate this angle. And the two wins he did get when having more TD passes were against Carolina on a last-second FG, and against Seattle when the Seahawks decided not to run the ball from the one-yard line. Had a bounce or two gone differently, maybe this trend would be perfect for Brady and his nine Super Bowl appearances.

The lack of passing from Jimmy G in these playoffs has been a popular talking point for this game, but this angle kind of flips that upside down. Now, had Mahomes played a full season he would have almost certainly had more passing TD's, but the chips fall as they will, and oddly enough it's working out in KC's favor here.

Whether or not that's how it plays out on Sunday remains to be seen, but I can also leave you with this angle that was last on the chopping block for this piece:
The Super Bowl team with the larger margin of victory in the conference championship game is just 7-11-2 SU in the last 20 Super Bowls (twice both participants had identical margin of victories).
Only three of those wins have come by the underdog, so sorry San Francisco fans, the writing may already be on the wall.

 

[Udog]

Six bullshit Super Bowl betting trends you should never base your bets on

Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls ? and that has made some 49ers fans excited, as San Fran will wear its "lucky" whites this weekend.

Every year, the Big Game attracts billions of betting bucks ? and not all of those dollars are wagered sensibly. There have been plenty of trends mentioned ahead of Sunday's NFL championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, and we're here to present six that you can not only safely ignore, but openly and gleefully mock those who don't. Here, without further ado, are the WORST Super Bowl trends making the rounds in 2020:

WHITE UNIS, BABY!

If you haven't heard this little nugget yet, you're lucky. And if you have, we can only hope you didn't give it a second thought. Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls ? and that has made some 49ers fans excited, as San Fran will wear its "lucky" whites this weekend. It doesn't help matters that the Niners are 2-0 when wearing white at the Super Bowl, prevailing in Super Bowl XIV vs. the Bengals and again in Super Bowl XXIV vs. Denver. There's absolutely no rhyme or reason for this trend, but that won't stop some people from putting money on it ? and saying "Told ya!" if the 49ers do go on to win.


HEADS WILL ROLL

Ah, the coin flip. Countless millions of dollars are spent on this activity every Super Bowl, with the odds the same as they ever were: -105 for heads, and -105 for tails. There is literally no coin flip-related trend worth pursuing ? and yet, you'll see people make their coin-flip wager on the basis of Heads having rode a bit of a hot streak, coming through in nine of the previous 14 Super Bowls. But whether you're a "ride the streak!" bettor, or a "tails are due" wagerer, the simple fact remains (and it's backed by basic finite math): the result of the Super Bowl coin flip is exactly that ? a coin flip. Don't overthink this one.


DOME SWEET DOME

Some people just prefer not having to go outside. Like cat ladies. Or professional gamers. And it certainly appears as if you can add the NFC's Super Bowl representatives to that list; the conference has been positively dominant in a dome setting, having won 15 of the past 19 NFL championships played indoors. And here's the best part of all: IT MEANS NOTHING. San Francisco has won just one of its previous five games played in a dome while giving up an average of 34 points per game in that span. And the Chiefs? They're 4-1 SU in a dome setting since 2010. But DON'T BET ON THAT, EITHER!


FAB IN FEBRUARY

On the flip side, what is it about NFC teams refusing to stay competitive once the calendar flips to Feb. 1? Or perhaps this has more to do with the fact that Tom Brady truly is an untiring cyborg, sent to Earth to provide mirth and enjoyment while teaching all of us how to play better football. Whatever the case, the AFC has been a far superior play in Super Bowls played in the month of February, having gone 11-6 SU. That includes Baltimore's 21-19 win over San Fran at Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. These teams have played one combined February game in their history. Can you say, "sample size fail"?


START FAST, FADE LATE

Both Kansas City and San Francisco got off to hot starts in 2019 ? but the Chiefs' loss in their fifth game in the season might just make them a better bet to win this weekend, if you believe in dumb trends. Over the past decade-plus, only two teams that kicked off the season 5-0 (the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 2015 Denver Broncos) went on to win the Super Bowl. So, as you can see, that 5-0 start by the Niners is a sure sign that they're in trouble Sunday. On the flip side, the last three teams to win the title in Miami all started 5-0 ? so you're probably VERY confused by now. Here's a tip: Ignore it all.


TAKE IT TO THE HOUSE

Speaking of NFL championship games played at Hard Rock Stadium, the overwhelming majority of them have featured at least one memorable play (okay, several, but we have a soft spot for this type in particular). Of the 10 kickoff returns for a touchdown in Super Bowl history, four of them have taken place in the five games played at the site of Sunday's showdown ? and the 49ers were actually on the wrong end of two of those, at Super Bowl XXIII vs. Cincinnati and Super Bowl XXIX against San Diego. Sounds like a sure thing, then, right? WRONG. It's a cute stat, but not something you should bet on.

 

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CHOOSING SIDES

We are down to four sleeps till Super Bowl 54. Neither the line nor the total has moved much since it opened on Jan 20 at Sports Interaction. The Chiefs are still 1.5-point chalk after opening at -1 while the total opened at 53.5, peaked at 55 and now sits at 54.

It may sound cliche, but this is a classic defense-against-offense matchup with Kansas City?s top-three DVOA offense facing San Francisco?s No. 2 DVOA defense. The biggest advantage the 49ers have is their defensive-front four who are so disruptive that Robert Saleh seldom has to commit his linebackers and secondary to blitzes. The Niners sat in the bottom-three in blitz percentage as it allows them to drop seven players in coverage.

Not blitzing could also help in another situation as the Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 117.2 when facing the blitz versus 106.3 when not.

Statistically, the Chiefs have 56 first downs through their two playoff games with just eight of those coming on third down ? 8-for-18. San Fran?s defense could put Mahomes and the offense in an uncomfortable and unfamiliar position by forcing Kansas City to pass the ball on third down against seven defenders in coverage.

We usually look at player/team props and derivatives, but it wouldn?t be fair if we didn't get our two cents in on the side. We have made our choice and going with the defense ? Niners +1.5.


WINNING BIG WITH SPECIAL TEAMS

With a lofty total of 54 points, SB54 could have its fair share of scoring. With scoring comes the usually bland kick returns, unless you?re the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs? full-time returner, Mecole Hardman, led the league in return yards with 932 ? 100 yards more than the next player.

Hardman will have ample opportunities to make something happen as the 49ers have a touchback percentage of 50 percent which ranks in the bottom seven of the league. On top of leading the league in return yards, the K.C. returner with 4.3 wheels also has the longest kickoff return this year at 104 yards and is only one of seven players to score a kickoff return TD. The last kickoff return TD in a Super Bowl was by Jacoby Jones back in 2012.

Very few things in a football game are as exciting as a kickoff return touchdown, especially when it pays 15 times your wager. Find the ?Will there be a kickoff return TD? and add the Yes (+1427) to your betting slip.


THE LONGEST YARD

Looking at both the longest score props of the game, the longest touchdown scored prop sits at 44.5 yards while the longest field goal?s total is 47.5 yards. It may be fun to play these bets, but previous Super Bowls haven?t been very profitable for these Overs.

In the last 10 Super Bowls, Over 47.5 yards for the longest field has hit just once ? Rams? Greg Zuerlein?s 53-yarder last year. To make matters even worse the Over is just 3-7 O/U in the Chiefs and 49ers combined previous five games while the Chiefs have attempted just one field goal this postseason.

Since Super Bowl 44, a touchdown of 45 yards or longer has been scored six times, but only in four of the 10 games. Of those six, only one was scored by an offense** (three interception returns, a punt return and a kickoff return). San Francisco is 1-4 O/U longest TD of 44.5 yards in its last five with the only long score coming on a pick-six and Kansas City is 3-2 O/U that total in its last five. 45 Yards is longer than we think as even Stefon Diggs? TD against the Niners in the Divisional round was shy at 41 yards.

We don?t always like betting with the trends, but this one has our interest and we have no problem hitting the Under on both longest field goal and longest TD.

**So, here is the question: Which QB threw the longest TD in a Super Bowl over the last 10 years?