CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack

More NFL trends for Week 3:

? Bengals covered eight of last ten as a road underdog.

? Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 non-division games.

? New England covered 13 of last 19 games vs AFC East foes.

? Colts covered one of their last six road openers.

? Miami covered twice in last eight games vs NFC teams.

? Atlanta covered three of last 13 non-divisional games.

Tweet of the Day
?I mean, this is something that?s serious. If his spleen bursts, then we have a problem.?
Jets? coach Adam Gase on Sam Darnold?s mononucleosis

Thursday?s quiz
Where did Dan Marino play his college football?

Wednesday?s quiz
Ben McAdoo was the Giants? head coach before Pat Shurmur.

Tuesday?s quiz
Jeff Fisher coached the Tennessee Titans in their only Super Bowl appearance.

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Thursday?s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud??

13) From Liam Stack (this story made me laugh):
A New Zealand man brought an emotional support clown to a meeting where he knew he?d be fired. The clown blew up balloons and folded them into a series of animals throughout the meeting, then mimed crying when the man was handed a pink slip.

Didn?t help; the guy still lost his job.

12) From Russell Baxter: 72 of the 106 Super Bowl teams started that season 2-0; only four of them started 0-2.

11) Atlanta Falcons play their first nine games this year in domes; their first of only three outdoor games is Week 11 (Nov 17) at Carolina.

10) From Ralph Michaels: Since 2016, under is 18-9 in college football games that had a total of 40 or less points.

9) Colts, Eagles and Packers are pretty banged up; they all scrapped their traditional Wednesday practices this week, and had walk-throughs instead.

8) David Fales would appear to be the Jets? new backup QB; he?s thrown 48 passes in three NFL games, two for Miami in 2017 (with Adam Gase as coach) and one for Chicago in 2016. Fales played college ball at San Jose State.

7) Football stuff:
? Chiefs? LT Eric Fisher is having core muscle surgery, is out this week.

6) Last time there was a week of NFL games where no team scored 30+ points was Week 9 in 1995, so long ago that the Houston Oilers won a game that week.

5) Pirates? closer Felipe Vazquez was arrested in Pittsburgh Tuesday on charges of soliciting a child, computer pornography and providing obscene material to minors.

4) Giancarlo Stanton?s over/under home run total for this year was 41.5; wth 11 days left in this season, he has one homer and seven RBI.

3) A?s 1, Royals 0 (11)? Mark Canha got the walk-off hit on Mark Canha T-shirt Day and Chad Pinder made a great catch in left field to save two runs as Oakland won its 92nd game this year.

2) Four teams that got to the Super Bowl after starting season 0-2:
? 1993? Cowboys (won Super Bowl)
? 1996? Patriots (lost)
? 2001? Patriots (won)
? 2007? Giants (won)

1) From Annie Karni of the New York Times:

?Sean Spicer got a minimum of $125,000 to be on Dancing With the Stars, and the pay goes up with every week he stays on.?

We live in a very strange world.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TEN at JAC 08:20 PM

JAC +1.5

O 38.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Minshew, defense shine as Jaguars thump Titans 20-7
September 19, 2019
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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) Gardner Minshew threw two touchdown passes and should have had a third, Calais Campbell spearheaded another defensive gem and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans 20-7 in sloppy conditions Thursday night.

Jacksonville (1-2) ended a four-game losing streak in the AFC South series and avoided the franchise's second 0-3 start in four years.

Minshew Mania, meanwhile, picked up momentum.

With all eyes on star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who may have played his final game for Jacksonville, Minshew and a second straight stellar defensive outing captured the spotlight.

A sixth-round draft pick starting his second consecutive game in place of injured Nick Foles (broken collarbone), Minshew completed 20 of 30 passes for 204 yards. He found James O'Shaughnessy wide open for a 7-yard score, which came one play after Adoree' Jackson's muffed punt. Minshew was more precise with a 22-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark, who was blanketed by Malcolm Butler.

Jacksonville sacked Marcus Mariota nine times, including three by Campbell.

One of his came on a highly questionable fourth-down attempt. Titans coach Mike Vrabel, with his team trailing 14-0 early in the third, passed on a short field goal and went for it on fourth-and-6 at the 11.

Campbell abused backup guard Jamil Douglas, and Mariota had no time to get rid of the ball.

The Titans (1-2) finally got on the scoreboard with Derrick Henry's 1-yard plunge early in the fourth. Henry finished with 44 yards on 17 carries, a far cry from his last game against Jacksonville. Henry ran for a franchise-record 238 yards and four touchdowns, including the second 99-yard run in NFL history (Tony Dorsett, 1983), in December.

Jacksonville wasn't going to let it happen again, stacking the box and doing a much better job tackling the 247-pound back.

Even Ramsey got in a couple of shots on the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner.

Ramsey stunned the franchise by requesting a trade four days earlier, wanting out after his sideline exchange with coach Doug Marrone. Ramsey told the Uninterrupted ''17 Weeks'' podcast that ''some disrespectful things were said on their end'' in a meeting after that game.

Ramsey insisted he didn't want to be a distraction. And clearly he wasn't, at least not on the field.

The Jaguars enjoyed a 14-point lead in the first quarter for the first time since Week 2 of last season against New England and just the third time in the last five seasons.

The officiating was roundly ripped - in the stands and around the country. The most notable: Titans linebacker Kamalei Correa was questionably flagged for roughing the passer in the second quarter, and Tennessee cornerback Logan Ryan was called for pass interference after barely touching Dede Westbrook.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady tweeted, ''Too many penalties. Just let us play!!!!'' He followed that tweet without another one a few minutes later, saying "I'm turning off this game I can't watch these ridiculous penalties anymore.''

Suspended Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan later added, ''Wow, who would have thought that the refs would mess up so many calls?''

CHAMP VISITS

Former heavyweight champ Mike Tyson was in attendance and wearing a No. 1 Jaguars jersey with ''Tyson Ranch'' on the back.

Tyson was on the sideline before kickoff, joined by a nearly 20-person entourage, and watched the game from owner Shad Khan's suite.

Tyson Ranch is an extension of Tyson's existing cannabis brand portfolio called Tyson Holistic Holdings.

GIBBS & COUGHLIN

Pro Football Hall of Fame coach and current NASCAR team owner Joe Gibbs visited with Jaguars executive Tom Coughlin before the game.

Gibbs was in town to speak at a ''Faith, Family, & Football'' event at Daily's Place next to TIAA Bank Field. Gibbs' spoke about the ''ultimate game plan he follows.''

INJURIES

Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack took a knee to the helmet in the third quarter, was later ruled out and placed in the concussion protocol. ... Jaguars receiver Chris Conley sprained his left ankle while blocking in the second, but later returned. ... Titans linebacker Rashaan Evans injured his left shoulder just before halftime, returned in the second half and then left the field again in the fourth. ... Titans linebacker Sharif Finch injured his right ankle in the third.

DEDE DROPS

Jaguars receiver Dede Westbrook dropped a would-be touchdown in the third quarter, and Jacksonville had to settle for a 40-yard field goal and a 17-0 lead. It was Westbrook's third drop of the night.

UP NEXT

The Titans play at Atlanta. Tennessee has dropped the last two meetings.

The Jaguars play at Denver. Jacksonville has dropped the last two meetings.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, September 22, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM Denver Broncos Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM New York Jets New England Patriots
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Philadelphia Eagles
4:05 PM Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM New York Giants Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:25 PM Houston Texans Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM New Orleans Saints Seattle Seahawks
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Cleveland Browns

Monday, September 23, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Chicago Bears Washington Redskins


*******************************


NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/19/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1...........57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0...........75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0..........61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0........... 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............37-27-1........ 57.81%.......... +36.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................14 - 12............+4.00.............19 - 9 ............+45.50.............+49.50

 

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


I WAS BORN A SCRAMBLING MAN

Daniel Jones will take control of the Giants offense this Sunday in Tampa Bay. Mr. Jones will have the services of receiver Sterling Shepard after the wideout cleared concussion protocol this week. It couldn?t have come at a better time as the Buccaneers actually have the league's best DVOA rushing defense ? allowing 2.7 yards per carry to opposing backs.

There is no doubt that Jones will be asked to throw a lot, especially if the G-men fall behind. If you think this is the part where we tell you to play the Over on his passing yards, you are mistaken.

We are expecting the rookie to have trouble going through his progressions and tuck and run. At Duke, Jones rushed the ball over 400 times in 36 games and accumulated more than 1300 yards, so we know the first-rounder is familiar with scrambling. It may be a hard market to find, but we are going to seek and destroy the Over on any total below 16-20 rushing yards.


FREEMAN DAYS

The Indianapolis Colts may be without their defensive captain and All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. The 2018 league leader in tackles is still in concussion protocol and is in danger of missing Sunday?s game versus the Atlanta Falcons.

This is great news for Falcons back Devonta Freeman. Freeman hasn?t done much on the ground, averaging just 41 yards on 19 totes but has seen at least four targets in each game resulting in six catches for 54 yards. Freeman saw his snap count rise to over 60 percent last week and he will benefit the most by not having the game?s best linebacker on him in coverage.

Take the Over 2.5 receptions for Freeman and if the line rises closer to kickoff and you miss the 2.5, feel safe grabbing the 3.5 as well.


THE END OF A LEGEND

Adam Vinatieri deserves a lot of respect for what he has accomplished in his 24-year NFL career. Perhaps that?s why the Indianapolis Colts kicker still has a job heading into Week 3 after beginning his 2019 season 1-for-3 while missing three-of-five extra points. The writing is on the wall as Indy held kicking tryouts for six different kickers earlier this week.

We don?t see a fairy-tale ending for Vinatieri and are going to fade him in a game that he probably knows could be his last NFL match. If the Colts don?t have faith in going for three, look for them to have a higher probability of going for it on 4th-down instead. Take the Colts Under 1.5 total field goals (+100).


ALLEN?S PASSING: TAKE THREE

Here is your weekly reminder that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is more than just a set of legs. Allen has eclipsed his passing totals in both games this year as his Week 1 and 2 totals were both set around 210 yards. This week will be tougher sledding with the O/U on Allen?s passing total set at 230.5 yards. Good thing for Allen and the Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town for the home opener as the Bills look to go 3-0.

The Bengals are averaging more passing yards per game than the Dallas Cowboys, meaning that Cincy won?t roll over and die, keeping Allen in passing mode. Things aren?t as pretty on the other side of the ball for the Bengals as they are third-worst in total defensive DVOA. We are looking to make it 3-0 on the Over on Allen's passing yard and taking the Over 230.5 as the Bills QB has surpassed 250 yards in both games this year.


BRIDGE IS OUT

We are throwing a first-time prop bet for anyone looking to cheer three-and-outs ? there are dozens of us!

Teddy Bridgewater will have nearly a full week to prepare for his first start in a meaningful game since January 2016. The New Orleans Saints new No. 1 QB did not look impressive last Sunday versus the Rams and it wouldn?t surprise us if No. 3 Taysom Hill sees a handful of plays under center.

Game Planning against Teddy & Co. are the Seattle Seahawks who will welcome the Saints to the loudest stadium in the league. The Seahawks have a sneaky good defense as they sit in the top-half in total defense DVOA ? 13th in the pass and 9th in the run. The Saints also don?t match up well against the run-heavy Hawks as NO has the worst-ranked DVOA run defense and will be without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone.

With wind and rain in the forecast, we expect Bridgwater to struggle to move the offense in a tough environment. Take the Saints as the team with most punts (-125)

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 3 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1.5 (674)

5) Ravens +6.5 (794)

4) Steelers +6.5 (934)

3) Lions +6 (937)

2) Seahawks -4 (974)

1) Rams -3 (1,474)

2019 record: 7-5


Quote of the Day
?Life is too short to bet the under.?
ESPN?s Scott Van Pelt

Sunday?s quiz
Who was the football coach at UCLA before Chip Kelly?
(Hint: He used to coach in the NFL)

Saturday?s quiz
Memphis basketball coach Anfernee (Penny) Hardaway played a point guard for fictional Western U in the great basketball movie Blue Chips.

Friday?s quiz
Since 1970, Walter Payton is the only NFL running back that THREW two TD passes in the same game, in a 1983 game against New Orleans.

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Sunday?s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday??

13) UCLA 67, Washington State 63:
? This amazing game ended at 2:27am here in the east.
? With 4:00 left in third quarter, Wazzu led 49-17; UCLA then scored 29 points in the next 7:24
? Bruins had a 100-yard kick return and a 69-yard punt return for TD?s.
? Both quarterbacks threw for 500+ yards.

? UCLA scored 50 points in the second half; Fifty!!!
? Coogs turned ball over six times (-5).
? Total yardage was 720-657, WSU.
? Wazzu QB Gordon threw nine TD passes, and his team still lost.

12) Toledo 41, Colorado State 35? At 2:34am, Colorado State?s receiver caught a pass on 2-yard line but was stopped on the 1-yard line. Solid late night entertainment this week.

11) LSU 66, Vanderbilt 38? The most important new name in college football this season may wind up being Joe Brady, who is LSU?s passing game coordinator and receivers coach.

Brady came to LSU from the New Orleans Saints, where he worked the last two years; he has brought the Tigers? offense into the 21st century, and he may wind up making QB Joe Burrow a very wealthy young man when the NFL Draft rolls around next April.

Burrow was 25-34/398 yards passing with six TD?s Saturday in Nashville; at one time a few years ago, he was the 3rd-string QB at Ohio State.

10) Wisconsin 35, Michigan 14:
? Rushing yardage: 359-40, Wisconsin
? Wolverines were minus-4 in turnovers, 0-10 on third down
? Michigan completed only 17 of 42 passes.

Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is:
? 1-3 in bowl games.
? 0-4 vs Ohio State (lost 62-39 LY).
? 2-2 vs Wisconsin.
? 2-4 vs spread as an underdog.

I?m guessing the natives are restless in Ann Arbor.

9) California 28, Ole Miss 20? Rebels got hosed by the replay official, who neglected to call for a replay review of a possible touchdown of their 3rd down play that may/may not have been a TD that could?ve tied the game in the last 0:10. Bad officiating.

Last nine Pac-12-SEC games, the SEC teams are 7-2 vs spread, but both the Pac-12?s covers were by Cal over Ole Miss.

8) Appalachian State 34, North Carolina 31? Tar Heels outgained ASU 469-385, but were minus-2 in turnovers? App State scored a defensive TD. UNC is now 2-2, with all four games decided by six or fewer points.

7) Upsets of the Week:
? San Jose State (+20.5) 31, Arkansas 24
? UCLA (+18.5) 67, Washington State 63
? Buffalo (+14) 38, Temple 22
? Pitt (+12.5) 35, UCF 34
? SMU (+9.5) 41, TCU 38

6) I-A teams who almost lost to a I-AA team:
? Eastern Michigan 34, Central Connecticut 29? EMU blocked a punt for a TD with 0:10 left, avoiding a horrendous loss after they upset Illinois last week.

5) Pittsburgh 35, UCF 34? Panthers scored on a ?Philly Special? 4th down trick play with 0:56 left to hand the Golden Knights their first loss of the season. UCF had won its previous 27 regular season games; they rallied back from down 21-0 in this game, but couldn?t hang on.

4) Washington 45, BYU 19? BYU needs to get into a league; their schedule is stupid:

First 4 games: Utah, @ Tennessee, USC, Washington.
Next 8 games: @ Toledo, @ USF, Boise St, @ Utah St, Liberty, Idaho St, UMass, @ San Diego St.

Not a very well-balanced schedule. Most schools spread out their more attractive games.

3) USC 30, Utah 23? Trojans? 3rd-string QB Matt Fink was 21-30/351 passing; USC has really good receivers, but they?re running out of quarterbacks.

2) Nebraska 42, Illinois 38- Illini led 35-21 with 3:00 left in third quarter, but couldn?t hold it.

? Total yardage: 671-299, Nebraska
? Illinois was +3 in turnovers (4-1).
? Illinois completed only 9-24 passes.
? Cornhuskers ran ball for 344 yards.

1) Scott Frost is the football coach at Nebraska; his brother Steve is the PA announcer at Stanford football games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 3

Broncos (0-2) @ Packers (2-0)? Broncos lost first two games, outscored 20-3 in first half; Denver is only the 4th team in last 50 years to have no sacks or takeaways in their first two games. Since 2012, Broncos are 6-12 ATS as a road underdog. Denver has two TDs, six FG tries in first two games; they?ve scored only 27 points in seven trips to red zone. Green Bay won two division games to begin season, allowing two TD?s on 26 drives, but Packers have scored only one FG in second half- they didn?t score at all after 2nd drive of game LW. Packers are 21-12-2 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite. Home team is 11-1-1 in this series; Denver lost last four visits here, with three losses by 26+ points.

Lions (1-0-1) @ Eagles (1-1)? Detroit blew 24-6 4th quarter lead in tying its opener, then upset Chargers 13-10 LW, picking off Rivers pass in end zone with 1:03 left. Since ?12, Lions are 16-20 ATS as road underdogs- they?re 8-12 in last 20 games as non-division road dogs. Eagles split their first two games, giving up 8.0/7.0 yards/pass attempt. Philly converted 20-35 third down plays- they trailed both games at halftime; Iggles won field position by 7-16 yards. Eagle opponents threw 88 passes, ran ball only 30 times in first two games. Philly covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite. Detroit won three of last four series games, but lost five of last six visits here (last here in ?13).

Ravens (2-0) @ Chiefs (2-0)? Baltimore won its first two games, running ball for 447 yards (QB Jackson ran for 120 yards vs Arizona LW); they?ve converted 14-25 on 3rd down, haven?t turned ball over (+3). Ravens are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog. Chiefs scored eight TD?s on 19 drives in their first two games, averaging 11.1/9.4 yds/pass attempt; they?ve had 15 plays already of 20+ yards. KC is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite; they covered only twice in last eight home openers. Chiefs won last two series games (34-14/27-24 OT) but Ravens won three of last four visits here. Mahomes threw for 377 yards in LY?s 27-24 OT win; total yardage was 441-321, KC.

Bengals (0-2) @ Bills (2-0)? Buffalo won four of last five series games, four of which were decided by 4 or fewer points. Cincy covered seven of last nine games as road underdogs; they lost first two games this year, scoring only 16 points in six trips to red zone. Bengals ran ball only 33 times, threw it 93 times in Taylor?s first two games as HC. Buffalo won its first two games, both in Swamp; Bills are 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a HF, but since ?05, Week 3 HF?s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS. Buffalo had decent balance in its first two games, running for 279 yards, throwing for 479, converting 10-23 on third down.

Falcons (1-1) @ Colts (1-1)? Colts split their first two road games, converting 14-27 third down plays, running ball for 370 yards; Brissett completed 69.1% of his passes, at 6.1 yards/attempt. Last two years, Indy is 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Colts are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams. Atlanta split first two games, turning ball over six times (-3), running ball only 34 times while throwing 89 times. Falcons are 0-10 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC foes, 1-7 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs; Atlanta lost three of four visits here, winning last one 31-7 in 2011. Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games outside NFC South.

Raiders (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)? Minnesota covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents; they?re 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a HF. Vikings ran ball for 370 yards in splitting first two games, but completed only 14-32 passes in loss at Lambeau LW. Oakland doesn?t play at home again until Nov 3; Raiders split two division home games, converting 16-28 on 3rd down. Last two years, Oakland is 3-12-1 ATS as road underdogs, 5-12-3 ATS overall outside AFC West- they?re 0-5 ATS in last five games on artificial turf. Oakland covered its last six road openers. Raiders won three of last four visits here; they?re 10-5 overall vs Vikings. Oakland gets G Incognito back from suspension, which helps their OL.

Jets (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)? Patriots won six in row, 14 of last 16 games vs NYJ, winning last eight meetings here, last three by total of 105-12. NE covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite; they won first two games this year by combined 76-3. Patriots covered 15 of last 18 games when laying double digits- they haven?t allowed a TD yet this year, giving up one FG on 22 drives. Falk gets first NFL start here; he was 20-25/198 in his NFL debut vs Cleveland Monday; he was a 3-year starter in Pac-12, throwing 119 TD?s, 39 INT?s in three years at Wazzu. Gang Green has one TD on 22 drives this year, converting 9-31 on third down. Jets are 6-12-2 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Cowboys (2-0)? Miami traded DB Fitzpatrick to Steelers Monday, as exodus of Dolphins? good players continues. Miami was outscored 102-10 in first two games, just like the ?73 Saints, who rallied to finish year 5-9. Dolphins have seven turnovers (-6), 10 3/outs on 23 drives, and were outscored 47-0 in 2nd half of games. Cowboys have to avoid overconfidence after pair of NFC East wins; Dallas scored 35-31 points in first two games, converting 13-21 on third down, scoring nine TD?s on 17 drives. Miami covered its last four road openers; over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS. Dallas won last three series meetings, by 17-1-10 points; Miami is 5-3 SU in visits here.

Giants (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)? Rookie QB Jones gets first NFL start here; how he does is anyone?s guess. Giants have no takeaways yet (-4), allowed 12.7/7.2 yards/pass attempt in first two losses, by 18-14 points (NYG scored first in both games). Opponents have six TD?s on six trips to red zone. Big Blue covered eight of last nine games as a road dog outside the NFC East. Tampa Bay had extra rest after a Thursday win LW; since 2014, Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last two meetings, that were decided by total of five points. Giants won six of last seven series games, winning three of last four visits here. Line jumped 2.5 points wth rookie Jones announced as Giants? QB.

Panthers (0-2) @ Cardinals (0-1-1)? Cam Newton (foot) is out here; his backup is Kyle Allen, who won his only start 33-14 in Week 17 LY vs New Orleans (16-27/228 yards). Carolina is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 road games; they won last three games vs Arizona but lost 28-21/22-6 in last two visits here- home side won last six series games. Cardinals were outscored 34-6 in first half in their two games (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS); they?re 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 home games. NFC West teams covered seven of first eight games this season; NFC South teams are 1-5 ATS outside their division. Over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS.

Steelers (0-2) @ 49ers (2-0)? Rudolph makes first NFL start; he was on Pitt?s bench LY, so he knows the system? he was a 3-year starter at Oklahoma State, was 12-19/112 vs Seattle LW, throwing two TD?s. Steeler defense gets boost, acquiring DB Fitzpatrick Monday; he?ll start here, but Pitt is 0-2 for first time since 2013 (started 0-4, ended up 8-8). Steelers covered five of last six tries as a road dog. 49ers opened with two road wins; they?re 4-11 ATS in last 15 tries as home favorites. Home side won last four series games; Steelers lost three of last four trips to SF. Niners covered seven of last nine games vs AFC teams. Since ?05, Week 3 HF?s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS.

Saints (1-1) @ Seahawks (2-0)? Brees has missed only three games since 2006, so this is huge change for Saints; Bridgewater was 17-11 starting for Minnesota in 2014-15- he was 17-30/165 in relief LW in 27-9 loss to Rams. NO is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog. How they adjust their offense with Brees out will be interesting to see; will they use #3 QB Hill and run the option a little? Saints ran ball for only 57 yards LW. Seahawks are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they?ve scored four TD?s in four trips to red zone this year. Seattle won three of last four series games; 2 of the 3 wins were in playoffs. Saints lost last three visits here, by 5-27-8 points. Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 non-division games.

Texans (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)? Houston split its first two games- they were decided by total of 3 points; Texans covered four of last five tries as a road underdog, are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Houston hasn?t allowed a first half TD yet; they converted 13 of 28 3rd down plays. Banged-up Chargers won opener in OT, then threw INT in end zone with 1:03 left in 13-10 loss at Detroit LW. Bolts are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite in Carson; they scored only 20 points in six visits to red zone this year. Chargers won five of last six series games; last meeting was in ?16. This is Texans? first visit here since ?13. Texans covered seven of last nine as a road dog outside their division.

Rams (2-0) @ Browns (1-1)? LA won first two games, not allowing first half TD;; this is second week in row Rams are playing team coming off a Monday night win, third week in row Rams are favored by 3 or fewer points- they?re 6-7 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less. Under McVay, LA is 8-5 ATS as a road favorite. Cleveland split pair of routs to start season; they?re only 5-23 on 3rd down so far, but hit an 89-yard TD to Beckham Monday night. Browns are 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog. Rams won four of last five series games, winning 26-20/13-12 in last two visits here (last here in ?11). NFC West teams were 7-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Bears (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)? Chicago scored only one TD on 21 drives in its first two games, converting 6-26 on 3rd down; Bears got a 54-yard FG at the gun LW for its first win, temporarily ending their kicking dilemma. Last 5+ years, Bears are 3-4 as road favorites. Redskins allowed 32-31 points in losing pair of division games; they allowed 7.8/8.4 yards/pass attempt, giving up three TD plays of 50+ yards. Skins are 5-7 ATS in last dozen tries as a home underdog. Washington won last seven series games, with five of seven by 4 or fewer points. Bears lost last three visits here, by 2-8-5 points (last visit here in ?13). Skins covered nine of last 12 non-division games, won last six Monday night home games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday Blitz - Week 3
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-5 ?, 52) ? 1:00 PM EST

Four AFC teams enter Week 3 with 2-0 records as two of those squads hook up at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has jumped out quickly in spite of beating Miami and Arizona, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has exploded for 596 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two wins. After routing the Dolphins in the opener, the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in last Sunday?s 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. Baltimore covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog with Jackson starting in 2018, including outright victories over the Chargers and Falcons.

Kansas City (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) scored all 28 of its points in the second quarter of last Sunday?s 28-10 triumph at Oakland to cash as seven-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes hasn?t dropped off since his MVP performance of 2018 by throwing for 443 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs didn?t put up a point in the second half at Oakland, but Kansas City improved to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams played one of the top games in 2018 as the Chiefs held off the Ravens in overtime, 27-24 in Week 14. The third game in which Jackson and Baltimore covered in the road ?dog role came at Arrowhead Stadium as 6 ?-point ?dogs, while the Ravens rushed for nearly 200 yards. Mahomes posted 377 yards through the air, including the game-tying touchdown pass in the final minute. Kansas City closed last season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite, including the AFC title game loss to New England.

Best Bet: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20

Saints at Seahawks (-4 ?, 44 ?) ? 4:25 PM EST

Several teams are down their starting quarterback in Week 3, including New Orleans (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), who begins the next six-week stretch without Drew Brees. The future Hall-of-Famer sustained a thumb injury in a 27-9 setback to the Rams in an NFC championship rematch as two-point underdogs. Veteran backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 165 yards in relief, but the Saints dropped to 0-7 ATS the last seven games (including playoffs) dating back to Week 15 of 2018.

The Seahawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off the Steelers as four-point road underdogs in Week 2 to pick up a rare September road win, 24-20. Seattle had failed to win its previous five road season openers, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark in the past five Week 2 contests. However, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on four touchdown drives, including three touchdown passes. Seattle?s rushing offense was silenced in Week 1 against Cincinnati, but the Seahawks ran all over the Steelers? defense for 151 yards.

Seattle has won 15 consecutive September home games dating back to 2010, while Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never lost an opening month contest at CenturyLink Field. The Saints are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since dropping the first two games of the 2017 season. New Orleans has lost in its past three visits to the Pacific Northwest, but the Saints won the previous matchup in 2016 at the Superdome, 25-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks 21, Saints 16

Texans at Chargers (-3, 48 ?) ? 4:25 PM EST

Both Houston and Los Angeles reached the postseason in 2018, as the two squads look to take that next step towards the Super Bowl in 2019. The Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Saints in Week 1 to edge the division rival Jaguars, 13-12 last Sunday. Houston failed to cash as 7 ?-point favorites even though the defense held Jacksonville out of the end zone for 59 minutes. The Jaguars crept to within one point with a touchdown in the final minute, but Houston stuffed Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette at the one-yard line on a two-point conversion to preserve the win.

The Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) staved off the Colts in overtime in the season opener, but couldn?t score points at crucial times in last Sunday?s 13-10 setback at Detroit. Los Angeles lost a fumble at the goal-line and missed a pair of field goals, while quarterback Philip Rivers was intercepted on the final drive as the Chargers equaled their road loss total from 2018 in the defeat to the Lions. The Lightning Bolts have started strong this season, but have scored a total of seven points in the third and fourth quarters in two games.

Los Angeles has put together a pedestrian 2-5-1 ATS mark in its last eight home contests, while only two of those victories came by seven points or more. Houston has drilled the OVER in four consecutive road games since last season, as the Texans have scored 28 points or more in the past three contests away from NRG Stadium. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in six meetings with the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002, including a 21-13 victory in 2016 in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Texans 27, Chargers 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-1 this season)

Over 43 ? - Bengals at Bills
Cincinnati was blown out last week at home by San Francisco, 41-17, as the Bengals look for a better performance. The Bills play their home opener following consecutive road wins over the Jets and Giants, as both offenses have been terrible this season. The Bengals have thrown the ball plenty in two weeks, as their running game has been horrific. Buffalo has hit the OVER in four of its last five home games, while Cincinnati is 5-2 to the OVER in its last seven road contests started by Andy Dalton.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Packers are in a tough scheduling spot this week following close wins over division foes Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay welcomes in 0-2 Denver, who is off a tough last-second loss to the Bears last week. The Packers turn around Thursday to face off with Philadelphia at home in an NFC showdown as this non-conference affair Green Bay may not be as sharp for. Green Bay is listed as seven-point favorites, as the Packers compiled a 2-4 ATS mark in the role of home favorites of six points or more in 2018.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Carolina opened up as 2 ?-point road favorites at Arizona, but after the news came down on Friday that quarterback Cam Newton would sit out with a foot injury, the Cardinals flipped to a two-point favorite. The Panthers turn to Kyle Allen, who is making his second career start for Carolina, who owns an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog since 2016. The Cardinals failed to win in two opportunities as a favorite last season, while Arizona has allowed over 450 yards in each of its first two games.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

The Steelers turn to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback for likely the rest of 2018 after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in last week?s loss to Seattle. Pittsburgh has not won a road game without Big Ben as its starting quarterback since a 2015 Monday night victory over the Chargers on a last-second touchdown by Le?Veon Bell. Pittsburgh?s signal-caller that evening in San Diego was none other than Michael Vick.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're on our way to Week 3 of the National Football League season already. Time flies during football season, as the regular season is already 11.7 percent completed already.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 3-13 4-11-1 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 10-22 10-21-1 18-14

The under was an impressive 13-3 in Week 2, while hitting in 20 of 32 games (63.0 percent). Bettors banging first-half unders have also prospered this season to a 21-10-1 record while individuals chasing the high side in the second-half have managed to trim off some of their losses.

If we get a repeat of Week 3 in 2018, we'll get a lot more lower-scoring results as the under went 12-2-2 last season in Week 3.

Division Bell

The divisional battles saw the 'under' cash in six of seven battles, with only the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins (46 ?) going over the mark. Through two weeks divisional games have seen the 'under' connect in nine of 12 outings, and games involving the Cowboys and Redskins have each hit the 'over' in both weekends.

Divisional Game Results Week 2

Tampa Bay at Carolina Under (48) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14
Indianapolis at Tennessee Under (43.5) Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 17
New England at Miami Under (48.5) New England 43, Miami 0
Dallas at Washington Over (46.5) Dallas 31, Washington 21
Minnesota at Green Bay Under (43) Green Bay 21, Minnesota 16
Jacksonville at Houston Under (43) Houston 13, Jacksonville 12
Kansas City at Oakland Under (53) Kansas City 28, Oakland 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 48 to 43
New Orleans at Seattle: 50 to 45
Detroit at Philadelphia: 49 ? to 45 ?
Cincinnati at Buffalo: 40 ? to 44
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: 51 to 47 ?
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: 46 ? to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Carolina at Arizona: Over 85%
New Orleans at Seattle: Under 85%
Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 83%
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Over 80%
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: Under 77%
Atlanta at Indianapolis: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (76 percent) in the N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Chicago-Washington (68 percent) battle on Monday night.

Handicapping Week 3

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-6
NFC vs. NFC 0-2
AFC vs. AFC 0-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-4

Week 3 is already off to a slow start, as the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup on Thursday night was low scoring, as the 'under' is now 7-1 through eight primetime battles.

Taking a look at the only remaining divisional battle for Week 3, here are some important trends to note:

N.Y. Jets at New England: The Jets lost their starting quarterback Sam Darnold for Week 2, as he is dealing with a bout of mononucleosis. He is targeting Week 5 for a return. Backup QB Trevor Siemian was supposed to keep the seat warm until Darnold was ready, but QB Luke Falk was thrust into action when Siemian suffered torn ligaments and a season-ending ankle injury on Monday night. Now, it's Falk with newly signed QB David Fales as the backup. Wow.

Of course, the big news for the Patriots was the release of wide receiver Antonio Brown on Friday. As such, the total has been on the move in this game, going from an open of 48 to 43 ? as of Saturday morning. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight games inside the AFC East for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on the road against teams with a winning record. For the Patriots, the under is 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including last week's lambasting of the Dolphins in Miami, 43-0. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 overall for the Pats. In this series, the under has cashed in six in a row, too, with the Jets averaging just 9.8 PPG. They're starting their third-string QB, and third signal caller in three games, so don't expect much better production.

Other important AFC-NFC games with important trends to note:

Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Falcons are back on the road where they mustered just 12 points in Week 1 at Minnesota, and none of those points came until the fourth quarter. Atlanta has hit the under in nine of the past 13 games on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall. However, the over is 6-0 in their past six battles in Week 3. For the Colts, they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games overall, while hitting in 15 of the past 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The under is also Colts will be playing their 2019 home debut after splitting the over/under in their first two games on the road.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The Steelers turn to backup QB Mason Rudolph after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) for the season. The Steelers rank 28th in total offense with 284.5 yards per game, while ranking just 29th in rushing yards per contest (56.5). They're 29th in total defense, yielding 445.0 yards per game, 320.0 passing yards (29th) per game and 125.0 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while coughing up 30.5 points per game (28th).

The 49ers have been the opposite, rolling up 413.5 total yards per game to rank seventh, and they're fourth in rushing yards per game (178.5), while scoring 36.0 PPG to rank third in the NFL. This will be their home opener after winning and cover two games on the road. Their defense allowed just 73.0 rushing yards per game to rank eighth, and 17.0 PPG to check in seventh in the league.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 3, with two games listed with a spread of 21 or more. The totals are ranging from 43 to 47 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have hit the 'under' in eight of their past 10 on the road against NFC teams. While the Packers defense has looked good through the first two games, one of the games was against the struggling Bears offense, and the other was a home battle against the one-dimensional Vikings. Of course, the Broncos haven't exactly been a juggernaut to this point, so the good times should continue to roll for the Pack. As far as Denver's defense is concerned, they have an alarming ZERO sacks through the first two games.

The under is 6-0 in the past six games for the Broncos following a straight-up loss, and 5-0-1 in the past six following a cover in the following week. The under is also an impressive 19-6-1 in the past 26 for Denver. For the Pack, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up victory.

N.Y. Jets at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): In two games last season in this series, the Patriots won 38-3 in Week 7 in Foxboro to hit the 'under', and 27-13 at Met Life Stadium in Week 12, also an 'under'. For more information on this game, see above.

Miami at Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET): The 'under' has connected in each of Miami's past two games as a double-digit underdog. For the first time in NFL history, at least in a non-strike season, there are two teams listed as underdogs of 20 or more points in the same week. The Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs in their franchise history.

The Dolphins were blanked at home last week against the Patriots, and the over/under is 1-1 through their first two games. Miami has been outscored a whopping 102-10 so far. They turn to QB Drew Rosen for his first start in aqua and orange, and he will be making his eighth career road start. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 18.1 points per game with Rosen at the helm on the road. Miami has also allowed 35.4 points per game across their past seven road contests, so another over could be the rule.

For Dallas, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five games overall, and 7-2 in the past nine contests at home. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record.

The under is 29-14 in Miami's past 43 games on a field turf surface, while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning home record. For the Cowboys, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 on a field turf surface, while going 10-2 in the past 12 at home against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win.

Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have hit the under in 10 of the past 12 games at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, with just three teams scoring 20 or more points during the span - the Bills, Saints and Bears. The under is 8-1 in their past nine games on a field turf surface, too, while hitting in four straight overall. The under is 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover.

The Raiders have hit the under in five of their past seven games in the month of September. The under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall, while going 8-2 in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games on the road. One thing which gives under bettors pause, however, is that Oakland has the league's worst pass defense, allowing 352.0 yards per game, with 415.0 total yards per outing (27th in the NFL).

Under the Lights

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Rams head to FirstEnergy Stadium for the first SNF game in Cleveland since 2008. The under has cashed in four of the past five games on the road for the defending NFC champions, while the over has cashed in seven of their past 10 games in the month of September. For the Browns, the under is 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games, although the over cashed in their home opener in Week 1, a 43-13 setback against the Titans. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five games when playing on a Sunday after a Monday Night contest.

Chicago at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): In the Monday nighter, the Bears and 'Skins tussle in D.C. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Chicago's past seven overall, 6-0 in their past six against NFC opponents and 5-1 in their past six appearances on MNF. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a non-cover in their previous game. As far as the 'Skins are concerned, the over has cashed in four of their past five games overall. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 after a non-cover, while going 6-1 in the past seven after allowing 30 or more points in their previous outing. The under is also 8-1 in the past nine when Washington allowed 150 or more rushing yards in their previous contest.

And remember, going into Sunday's Rams-Browns tilt, the under is 7-1 so far through eight primetime games. For bettors playing more than just the game total, make a note that the first-half under is 8-0 in games played under the lights while the low side is 5-3 in the second-half.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
September 21, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0 ATS (10.85 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 off a game as a dog where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since Oct 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 22 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Falcons are 0-7-1 OU (-6.25 ppg) since Nov 03, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where Matt Ryan threw at least 2 interceptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by at least 25 points in each of the past two games are 26-42-1 ATS. Active against New England.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 10-0 OU (9.25 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 and as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Jets are 0-11-1 OU (-4.88 ppg) since Nov 17, 2011 on the road coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Falcons are 18-0 ATS (+9.78 ppg) on the road and vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed fewer than 254 total yards in their last game and has less than 14 days rest.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
September 20, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Six new quarterbacks make starts this week that didn?t begin their games last week and the bookmakers have had to make adjustments on the fly of what the value of the starter is to the number relative to the back-up while also putting a price on public perception into the mix.

?We didn?t do too much with the Giants QB change,? said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTamasso of their ratings. They went with the market going from the Buccaneers -4.5 to -6.5. ?We did see some movement on the under going from 48.5 to 47.5.

?Eli (Manning) wasn?t doing anything for the offense so I think the move was good. Daniel Jones showed well in preseason.?

Jones did look very good in preseason and most figured this day was coming, but maybe not this quick. Manning?s poor play made the move justified.

?With news of Cam Newton being doubtful we moved the Panthers from -3 to the Cardinals being -1.5,? said DiTamasso. ?We thought that was a good enough adjustment with Kyle Allen starting and we got pushed to -2, but it looks like it?s going to come back down.?

Bet and Collete Podcast Newton?s foot is the reason he?s sitting out, but if watching his last game in a home loss to the Buccaneers it appeared his shoulder that was repaired in the offseason was the main reason for him being so inaccurate.

Kyle Allen is in his second year with the Panthers and he looked decent in a Week 17 start last season at New Orleans, a 33-14 win with Drew Brees resting for the Saints.

Teddy Bridgewater started that game for the Saints and he?ll also be starting this week at Seattle for an injured Brees, who figures to be out the next six weeks.

?We?re going to need Bridgewater to play well because the Seahawks have become our biggest parlay game so far,? DiTamasso said. ?I wasn?t too impressed with his play at Minnesota when he started and he didn?t do too much last week, either.?

CG books have the Seahawks -4.5 while most of the others in Las Vegas are solid -4?s

The Steelers will also be with their QB and they?ll be without him all season. Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) has the largest impact to the number among all six of the new starting QB?s this week.

?There?s a big adjustment, maybe 7 to 8-points, from Big Ben to Mason Rudolph,? DiTamasso said. ?We were thinking Steelers -1 before he got hurt.?

The 49ers opened the season with two road wins and they?re a 6.5-point favorite for their home opener.

CG books opened Week 3 numbers Sunday with the Patriots being -16.5 and were bet up to -18. After New York Jets back-up QB Trevor Siemian got knocked out for the season with an ankle injury Monday night, third-stringer Luke Falk gets to make his first career start at New England with first-stringer Sam Darnold still 'out' with mono. The Patriots are now -22.5.

?We got some sharp play on the Jets at +23 so we know that?s the number that is seen as attractive if we get to high with Patriots money,? DiTamasso said.

The other new QB starting this week is Josh Rosen. The former UCLA player is getting the nod for the Dolphins, who are looking to shake things up. CG books have gone up from the Cowboys as 21-point home favorites to -23, but it?s not about Rosen, it?s about trying to find bettors willing to take the Dolphins and no one is biting, in the same manner, they are with the Jets.

The top sharp plays at CG books this week has been the Ravens at +6.5 and +6 for their huge AFC game at Kansas City. DiTamasso has the Chiefs at -5.5 but says he expects it to move back soon because the Chiefs are always an attractive play with the public.

?They?ve also bet the Texans with us at +3.5 (at Chargers), the Jets, and the Falcons at +2.5 and +2,? DiTamasso said.

CG books top-weighted parlays games are the Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Eagles.

Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said their top sharp bets this week has been the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers and their top public parlay games are the Patriots, Rams, and Cowboys.

The Rams play at Cleveland Sunday night and it?s likely to have the most impact on every book?s results as risk from all the earlier games pile on. CG is currently sitting Rams -3 (-120) like most books in Las Vegas while Stations is at -3.5 (EVEN) for the finale.

 

[Udog]

NFL Sunday odds and line moves: Public abandons Browns, hitches wagon to Rams
Patrick Everson

Coach Sean McVay and the Rams are out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start heading into a Sunday night road tilt against Cleveland. Los Angeles opened -3 and were bet up to -3.5 against the Browns.

NFL Week 3 includes a clash between the reigning NFC champion and the most-hyped team from the offseason, under the Sunday night lights. Covers checks in on that matchup and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns ? Open: +3; Move: +3.5

Cleveland got a lot of offseason run from the media and at the betting window, with its acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr. and more, but hasn?t looked particularly good through two weeks. After getting ripped by Tennessee in Week 1, the Browns (1-1 SU and ATS) beat the Jets 23-3 as 6.5-point road favorites in the Week 2 Monday nighter.

Los Angeles is out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS in defense of its NFC crown. The Rams knocked New Orleans? Drew Brees out of the game early with a thumb injury and went on to a 27-9 Week 2 victory as 2-point home faves.

?I?m pretty sure that?s gonna be the biggest need of the day, on Cleveland,? Shelton said of an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff. ?The ticket count is almost laughable, over 1,000 pointspread tickets on the Rams, around 100 on the Browns. And the money is even worse, almost 20/1. The public has completely abandoned the Browns.

?We?re already a six-figure loser to the Rams. I can?t even fathom what it?ll be like at 5 p.m. (Pacific). The Rams are probably the last piece of the puzzle for a lot of people with parlays.?

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs ? Open: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5

Kansas City reached the AFC Championship Game last season and looks very much the part of a Super Bowl contender thus far this season. The Chiefs (2-0 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 28-10 laying 7 points on the road last week.

Baltimore also won its first two games, but got a surprisingly tough test in Week 2. The Ravens (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off Arizona for a 23-17 victory giving 13 points at home.

?Not a big decision,? Shelton said of a 1 p.m. ET start. ?Ticket count is roughly 4/1 on the Chiefs, but there?s actually more money on the Ravens.?

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys ? Open: -21; Move: -21.5; Move: -22; Move: -23

After two weeks of misery in Miami, sportsbooks far and wide posted proposition bets on whether the Dolphins will go 0-16. Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) have been outscored 102-10 thus far, including a 43-0 shutout as an 18-point home ?dog to New England last week.

On the flip side, Dallas is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start heading into this 1 p.m. ET nonconference contest. The Cowboys started slowly at Washington last week, but ultimately nabbed a 31-21 victory as 6-point road faves.

?Pretty much all Cowboys, money and tickets,? Shelton said. ?We need the Dolphins.?

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers ? Open: -7; Move: -6.5

Pittsburgh is still seeking its first win, and it lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season with an elbow injury in Week 2. In that contest, the Steelers (0-2 SU and ATS) fell short to Seattle 28-26 as 4-point home favorites.

San Francisco is 2-0 SU and ATS after a pair of relatively easy victories. The 49ers went to Cincinnati as 1-point pups last week and rolled to a 41-17 victory.

Mason Rudolph is now at the helm for Pittsburgh, and interestingly enough, bettors at The Mirage and other MGM books are buying the Steelers in this 4:25 p.m. ET matchup.

?Right now, we?re gonna need the Niners,? Shelton said. ?Pointspread ticket count is 3/1 on the 49ers, but there?s more money on Pittsburgh.?

 

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


NO SONY OF MINE

Through 36 rushes, New England Patriots running back Sony Michel has forced zero missed tackles. His 2.96 yards per carry has him ranked between Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson. Heading into the 2019 season, Michel?s injury history was well documented as he has a durability rating of 1 on Sports Injury Predictor, with 1 being the least durable. These injuries may be playing a big factor behind the lack of burst and elusiveness.

Michel and the Pats will host the New York Jets on Sunday as 21.5-point favorites. The Jets are in the middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed and rank 11th in DVOA rush defense. With the back?s total rushing yards at 83.5, we feel that too many things have to go right for him to top that number, especially since he is averaging just 1.69 yards after contact. Take Sony?s Under 83.5 rushing yards.


FALK THE PLANK

The fade train continues as we turn our shading onto the worst starting quarterback in the league. This lucky signal-caller is playing on the road versus the best football dynasty in history that is currently sporting the league?s best defense.

New York Jets third-stringer turned starter Luke Falk is in for a world of hurt on Sunday versus New England?s No. 1 defense. Last week Falk ?led? the Jets? offense to three three-and-outs, a fumble and two turnover on downs. This week Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will have had six days to game plan against him. There is a reason that the Pats are 21.5-point favorites. Take the Under 0.5 TD passes from Falk (-103).


COOK THE BOOKS

In Week 1, as the favorite and at home, the Minnesota Vikings ran the ball 38 times and passed just nine times. On Sunday, the Vikes will host the Oakland Raiders as 9-point favorites and may use Week 1?s game plan as quarterback Kirk Cousins is in, or near, the bottom of most QB statistical leader boards. This will benefit running back Dalvin Cook the most as the RB saw 21 carries which he turned into 111 yards and two rushing TDs in Week 1?s win over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Raiders are allowing just 2.8 yards to opposing running backs and have yet to allow a rushing TD, but things will change on Sunday as Minnesota will lean on Cook as Cousin struggles. Take Cook?s Over 0.5 rushing TDs for plus money (+118).


MURRAY-UP OFFENSE

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is +180 to win the offensive rookie of the year after opening at +200. Since the beginning of the year, the No. 1 pick has become only the second player in NFL history to throw for 300 yards in his first two games. Aiding the 22-year-old QB is the fact that the Cardinals have run 91-of-136 offensive plays with four or more receivers. The other 31 NFL teams combined have just 60. The Air-Raid Offense is real.

Murray will square off with the Cam-Newtonless Carolina Panthers whose defense held Jameis Winston to 208 yards last week and Jared Goff to 186 yards in Week 1. Seems like a legit passing defense but Winston and Goff are ranked 27th and 28th, respectively in QBR and the Panthers rank 18th in DVOA passing defense. We are putting our bucks on Murray?s Over 261.5 passing yards.


WAVERING WENTZ WILL WANE

In Week 2, the Philadelphia Eagles lost a ton of players due to injury, including receiver DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Jackson will miss Sunday?s matchup versus the Detroit Lions while Jeffrey is questionable but may suit up. Quarterback Carson Wentz has looked awful in the first half of each game this year as the Eagles have been outscored 30-16.

Wentz has gone 21-for-38 (55 percent) and thrown for 189 yards with one score and two INTs in the first half this year. Outside of a 51-yard touchdown in Week 1, Wentz?s longest completion in the first 30 minutes has gone for 12 yards. Wentz is playing with fire starting so slowly and may have some lingering effects from last week?s rib-crushing hit while also having to play with a decimated offense.

We are fading Wentz and the Eagles against a tough Lions passing D that sit No. 5 in completion percentage against and allowing a QB rating of 74.4. Smash the Under Eagles team total 26.5 and if you want to double down, take Under Wentz?s 285.5 passing yards.

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Week 3 Essentials
Tony Mejia

Broncos at Packers (-7 /42.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Vic Fangio came up on the wrong side of a Bears field goal again last week. The former Chicago defensive coordinator who lost his shot an NFC divisional playoff when Cody Parkey missed is 0-2 as a head coach in Denver due to replacement Eddy Pineiro hitting the biggest field goal of his life. Sometimes it?s not your year. Fangio has seen his defense play well enough to win but the Joe Flacco-led offense has averaged 15 points. Making matters worse is that 21 of their 30 points on the season have come in the fourth quarter when playing from behind. They?ve scored no touchdowns in the first three quarters of their opening two games despite Flacco firing off 81 passes. Flacco has demonstrated some chemistry with veteran Emmanuel Sanders and has looked for the dynamic Courtland Sutton but now faces a Green Bay secondary that has excelled in wins over division rivals Chicago and Minnesota, giving up 9.5 points behind new coordinator Mike Pettine.

Aaron Rodgers is feeling much healthier this season, so this should also be a great test for the Broncos? defense. Ironically, it was Khalil Mack, at the helm of Fangio?s Bears defense, who hurt Rodgers last September, so he?ll need to be wary of the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. He?s 4-1 against Fangio defenses over the past three seasons, throwing 10 TDs and just one INT despite coming up empty in a 24-17 loss when he last saw him on Dec. 16. Denver?s defense will be missing LB Joe Jones but otherwise should be at full strength to try and keep Rodgers from finding a rhythm. Green Bay is just 7-6-1 straight up at Lambeau Field over its last 14 home games, so it will be looking to re-establish that edge as it plays the second game of a four-game stretch of home games over a five-week span. Rookie head coach Matt LaFleur and his new offense has only averaged 15.5 points but he?s got a great shot at a fantastic start if Rodgers remains upright and his defense continues to dominate. Rain is expected to factor in all day in Green Bay, where thunderstorms could roll in as the game unfolds.

Lions at Eagles (-5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Eagles were sabotaged by injuries in Atlanta last weekend and were still just a half-yard away from being in position to rally past the Falcons despite the absence of Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and star TE Zach Ertz, who got banged up despite staying in on the final drive as he wound up participating in every snap. Carson Wentz played poorly in the first half and couldn?t rescue the result, which dropped Philly to 1-1 for the third straight season. Doug Pederson is 3-0 in Week 3 since taking over in ?16 but has won tight home games that hung in the balance until the game?s final play and resulted in failed covers each of the past two years. Jeffery is unlikely to play due to a calf injury, although he may warm up and try to gut it out if he loosens up enough. Jackson has already been ruled out, but the team is hopeful Goedert can play and will have to ride with Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins and rookie JJ Arcega-Whiteside as the main receivers against an underrated Lions secondary .

Detroit held the visiting Chargers to just 10 points and has been largely dominant on the defensive end with the exception of getting carved up by Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 tie at Arizona. The Lions allowed 21 points in down the stretch in Glendale and have surrendered 16 points over the other seven quarters. They could get a boost with top LB Jarrad Davis making his debut, so Wentz and Philly may have their hands full moving the ball effectively if Jeffery remains out. Nelson Agholor could get a boost in targets but has remained hit-or-miss due to drops and would have to see more of Darius Slay if he?s the No. 1. Detroit has won three of the past four meetings between these teams, beating former head coach Jim Schwartz in his first season as Eagles coordinator 24-23 behind three Matthew Stafford TD passes.

Ravens at Chiefs (-5.5/52), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Lamar Jackson?s great start passing the ball sets up this beauty of a matchup against Patrick Mahomes in a battle of two of the NFL?s four highest-scoring teams through two games. Kansas City (34.0) actually ranks No. 4 with everyone looking up at Baltimore and its gaudy 41-point average, but there?s no question most have taken a wait-and-see approach with Jackson since he?s torched the hopeless Dolphins and a young Cardinals team missing Patrick Peterson. The Chiefs aren?t the ?85 Bears on the defensive end, but did blank the Raiders over the final three quarters last week and have added pieces like Frank Clark, Darron Lee and Tyrann Mathieu who still haven?t gotten comfortable. If Jackson is able to light up the Chiefs on the road and we get a full blown circus of a shootout at Arrowhead today, it would be hard to deny the Ravens? quarterback?s emergence. Top RB Mark Ingram (kidney) and productive tight end Mark Andrews (foot), who has emerged as Jackson?s favorite target, have been cleared to play. Corner Jimmy Smith and safety Brynden Trawick are out.

Mahomes should continue to thrive despite the absence of Tyreek Hill given how nicely he?s spread the ball around, but the protection left tackle Eric Fisher provides should be tougher to replace since he?ll be out of the lineup for an extended period due to core surgery. Cam Erving took over for most of last week?s win against Oakland but the veteran interior lineman isn?t as mobile. RB LeSean McCoy is expected to have a heightened role with Damien Williams out, so he could be in for a breakout game after practicing in full coming off an ankle issue. Early thunderstorms are expected in Kansas City, so check the forecast to see whether the weather is clearing up since that could potentially rain out plans for that aforementioned shootout.

Bengals at Bills (-6/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Bengals had a rough home opener in losing to San Francisco 41-17 and will be on the road in Buffalo and Pittsburgh the next few weeks, so first-year head coach Zac Taylor is hoping to stop the bleeding. Right tackle Cordy Glenn remains out with a concussion and LT Andre Smith and LG Michael Jordan have both been deemed questionable, with Jordan unlikely to start even if he can go. Cincinnati?s issues up front have impacted Joe Mixon and Andy Dalton as life without A.J. Green continues, so the Bills should have an opportunity to get after an offense again after really clamping down in wins over the Giants and Jets.

Impressive rookie RB Devin Singletary is out with an injured hamstring, but Frank Gore is healthy and running as hard as ever, so he and veteran T.J. Yeldon will be tasked with keeping QB Josh Allen in manageable drives. The raw second-year Bills quarterback managed to avoid being picked off last week and has a TD pass and a TD run in three straight games dating back to last season. The Bengals aren?t going to have DE Carl Lawson to help chase Allen down and a new linebacker corps has really struggled thus far. Buffalo is looking for its first 3-0 start since 2011 and hasn?t been this heavy a favorite since beating the Jets 21-12 to cover as a 7-point ?chalk? in 2017. The Bills closed last season by blowing out the Dolphins as a 5.5-point favorite in their last regular-season game at New Era Field.

Falcons at Colts (-1.5/47), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Colts may have WR T.Y. Hilton (quad) and RB Marlon Mack (calf) in the lineup, but both will be game-time decisions and haven?t had much practice time this week. Top linebacker Darius Leonard has already been ruled out due to a concussion, so backups are going to have to emerge at home to keep Indy from losing this home opener as the post-Andrew Luck era officially begins. Jacoby Brissett threw three touchdown passes to help beat the Titans in Nashville last weekend but needs a full complement of weapons to try and hang with Matt Ryan and a healthy Falcons offense.

Surviving Philly?s frantic comeback bid on Sunday night really took some of the pressure off Dan Quinn and Dirk Koetter, and they can suddenly start thinking about getting the team headed in the right direction with the division up for grabs given the injuries to Drew Brees and Cam Newton. DT Ra?Shede Hageman is back, adding to Atlanta?s depth up front as they look to keep the Colts rom establishing the run in the manner they have thus far. Indianapolis has won 14 of 16 meetings against the Falcons but lost the last time they hosted a game in this series, falling 31-7 in 2011. Matt Hasselbeck helped beat Ryan when these teams last met in ?15.

Raiders at Vikings (-9/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Jon Gruden?s young Raiders hit the road for the first time after splitting their first two divisional games against the Broncos and Chiefs and come in a little banged up. LB Vontaze Burfict injured an ankle against Kansas City last week and could be limited. Safety Lamarcus Joyner is nursing an injured groin, so an already thin secondary could struggle against the Vikings weapons, particularly if Burfict isn?t able to make the calls and get everyone working together. Offensively, Oakland does get back suspended guard Ritchie Incognito to try and get rookie Josh Jacobs going again after an illness and multiple lower body injuries.

The Vikings are expected to get CB Mike Hughes back, which should soften the blow of Mackensie Alexander being ruled out with an elbow injury. Linebacker Anthony Barr is likely a go as well, so the Vikings will try and rattle Derek Carr. After a great run on the road in 2016, Carr has thrown 15 interceptions and just 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons and doesn?t have a No. 1 receiver, relying mostly on lanky tight end Darren Waller as a security blanket. The Raiders have won 10 of 14 in the series but haven?t won in Minnesota since ?07 and lost the last meeting at home back in ?15 as Carr was picked off twice and then-Viking Adrian Peterson ran for over 200 yards.

Jets at Patriots (-21.5/43.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The number has swung back in the Jets? direction after Antonio Brown?s release on Friday. After peaking in the 23/23.5-point range depending on the book, most have settled back at 21 points in this battle between divisional rivals. The Patriots will start Tom Brady and New York will send Luke Falk out there since starter Sam Darnold is out with mono and backup Trevor Siemian broke his ankle on Monday night. Defensive standouts Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley and Jordan Jenkins have been ruled out and safety Jamal Adams unfollowed the team on social media after being unhappy with being benched for aggressive play. Offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele, Brian Winters and Kelvin Meachum all are banged up and the Jets will hit Foxboro off a short week. Although Adam Gase is plenty familiar with New England, he?ll be putting together a gameplan under less than ideal conditions.

The Patriots have Philip Dorsett ready to step back up in the role he was filling before Brown came aboard and should continue getting strong play out of Josh Gordon. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse and right tackle Marcus Cannon are expected to start, so Brady and the offense should have all the time they need against a Jets defense that has worn down in giving up big plays in the passing game, which doesn?t bode well for the Jets snapping a six-game losing streak against the Pats, who have won 14 of the last 16 matchups.

Dolphins at Cowboys (-22/47), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With the Jets? line dipping, the Dolphins again bear the brunt of being the week?s biggest underdog again. New England coasted to a cover of an 18-point spread with a 43-0 win, which means the Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 entering their first road game of the season. In order to inspire showing a little backbone, Brian Flores has named Josh Rosen the starting quarterback ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Safety Reshad Jones is out again, so a defense that traded away major pieces isn?t going to be able to slow a versatile Cowboys offense that has lit up the Giants and Redskins in ranking fifth with a 33-points per game clip.

The Cowboys do have some answers to come up with after losing WR Michael Gallup to a knee injury, but Devin Smith was able to fill in nicely against Washington and is an x-factor here. Dallas will wrap as the largest favorite since 2013 and has only won a game by enough points to cover this spread four times over the past four seasons.

Steelers at 49ers (-6.5/43.5), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: The Niners hope to open 3-0 for the first time since 1998, which makes them one of the NFL?s biggest surprises considering they?re favored to do so rather substantially here due to Ben Roethlisberger?s absence and picked up their first two victories on the road. No one is going to confuse the Bucs and Bengals with playoff-caliber teams, but the 49ers pulled away from both impressively, demonstrating an ability to create breakdowns on both sides of the ball. Last week?s rout of Cincinnati showcased depth since Jimmy Garoppolo rebounded from a rough first start by capitalizing on all the attention George Kittle received.

The Steelers are 0-2 after dropping games against the Patriots and Seahawks and will send Mason Rudolph out there for his first start. He threw for two scores and was intercepted once in a 28-26 loss to Seattle and will have to grow with Juju Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief and college teammate James Washington in what will likely turn into a rebuilding year if Rudolph can?t immediately produce a win that prevents an 0-3 start. RB James Conner will be out there to help ease everyone?s burden despite a knee injury that had his status in doubt earlier this week. Defensively, Pittsburgh will be without a pair of linebackers but will have safety Minkah Fitzgerald in the mix.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at DAL 01:00 PM
DAL -21.5
U 46.5

ATL at IND 01:00 PM
ATL +1.5
U 48.0

NYJ at NE 01:00 PM
NYJ +21.0
U 43.0

DEN at GB 01:00 PM
GB -7.5
U 42.0

DET at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -4.0
O 45.0

BAL at KC 01:00 PM
BAL +5.0
U 52.0

CIN at BUF 01:00 PM
CIN +6.0
U 43.5

OAK at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -9.0
U 43.5

 

[Cnotes53]

NYG at TB 04:05 PM
NYG +5.0
U 48.0

CAR at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -2.5
U 45.0

HOU at LAC 04:25 PM
HOU +3.5
O 49.0

PIT at SF 04:25 PM
PIT +6.5

NO at SEA 04:25 PM
NO +5.0
O 44.0

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

LAR at CLE 08:20 PM

CLE +3.5

U 48.0

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Today, Week 3
September 22, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Sept. 23

Chicago at Washington, 8:15 p.m. EDT. Mitchell Trubisky has won his past four road starts for the Bears (1-1), but the Chicago quarterback has struggled in the first two games while going 42 of 72 for 348 yards with an interception and no TDs. The Redskins (0-2) also have recent history on their side, having won the past seven meetings. Case Keenum is off to a solid start, throwing for 601 yards and five TDs with no INTs through his first two games.

---

STARS

Passing

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns and Kansas City held on for a 33-28 victory over Baltimore.

- Daniel Jones, Giants, threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first NFL start and also ran for two TDs, including the go-ahead score with 1:16 remaining, to help New York rally from an 18-point halftime deficit to beat Tampa Bay 32-31.

- Kyle Allen, Panthers, passed for 261 yards and four touchdowns in place of the injured Cam Newton in Carolina's 38-20 win over Arizona.

- Dak Prescott, Cowboys, threw two touchdown passes to Amari Cooper before running for another score, and Dallas cruised past Miami 31-6.

- Deshaun Watson, Texans, passed for 351 yards and hit Jordan Akins with two of his three touchdown tosses in Houston's 27-20 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

- Jacoby Brissett, Colts, went 28 of 37 for 310 yards and two TDs in Indianapolis' 27-24 win over Atlanta.

---

Rushing

- Mark Ingram, Ravens, ran for three touchdowns, finishing with 103 yards rushing on 16 carries, and caught four passes for 32 yards in a losing cause as Baltimore fell 33-28 at Kansas City.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 153 yards rushing, including a 76-yard touchdown, on 24 carries in Carolina's 38-20 win at Arizona.

- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had 125 yards rushing on 19 attempts in Dallas' 31-6 win over Miami.

- Dalvin Cook, Vikings, had 16 carries for 110 yards and a score in just three quarters as Minnesota topped Oakland 34-14.

- Frank Gore, Bills, had two touchdown runs, including a go-ahead 1-yard score with 1:50 remaining, in Buffalo's 21-17 win over Cincinnati.

- Phillip Lindsay, Broncos, ran for two touchdowns in Denver's 27-16 loss at Green Bay.

---

Receiving

- Mike Evans, Buccaneers, caught three touchdown passes and finished with eight receptions for 190 yards in a losing cause as Tampa Bay fell 32-31 to the New York Giants.

- Keenan Allen, Chargers, caught 13 passes for a career-high 183 yards and two touchdowns in Los Angeles' 27-20 loss to Houston.

- Darren Waller, Raiders, had 13 receptions for 134 yards in Oakland's 34-14 loss at Minnesota.

- Tyler Lockett, Seahawks, caught 11 passes for 154 yards and a score in Seattle's 33-27 loss to New Orleans.

- Julio Jones, Falcons, had 128 yards receiving and a touchdown on eight receptions in Atlanta's 27-24 loss at Indianapolis.

---

Special Teams

- Jamal Agnew, Lions, returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown - the first in the NFL this season - to help Detroit edge Philadelphia 27-24.

- Deonte Harris, Saints, took a punt back 53 yards for a score in New Orleans' 33-27 win at Seattle.

- Malcolm Jenkins, Eagles, blocked Matt Prater's 46-yard field goal try in Philadelphia's 27-24 loss to Detroit.

- Arthur Maulet, Jets, recovered a muffed punt return by Gunner Olszewski in the end zone for a touchdown in New York's 30-14 loss at New England.

---

Defense

- Shaquil Barrett, Buccaneers, had four of Tampa Bay's five sacks and forced a fumble in a 32-31 loss to the New York Giants.

- Preston Smith, Packers, matched a career high with three sacks in Green Bay's 27-16 victory over Denver.

- Tre'Davious White, Bills, sealed Buffalo's 21-17 win over Cincinnati with the second of his two interceptions - picking off Andy Dalton's tipped pass on third-and-5 from Buffalo's 28 with 12 seconds remaining.

- Vonn Bell, Saints, returned a fumble 33 yards for a touchdown in New Orleans' 33-27 win at Seattle.

- Jamal Adams, Jets, returned an interception thrown by Jarrett Stidham - who replaced Tom Brady for one series - 61 yards for a touchdown in New York's 30-14 loss at New England.

- Donte Jackson and Mario Addison, Panthers. Jackson had two interceptions and Addison three sacks in Carolina's 38-20 victory at Arizona.

---

MILESTONES

With his touchdown throw to Phillip Dorsett in the first quarter of New England's 30-14 win over the New York Jets, Tom Brady passed Drew Brees for second place on the NFL's career list for touchdown passes. It was Brady's 523rd TD pass. Peyton Manning is first with 539. ... Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers tied Fran Tarkenton for the ninth-most touchdown passes in NFL history with 342. Next up for Rodgers is Eli Manning, who has 362. ... Kansas City coach Andy Reid won his 210th game, breaking a tie with Chuck Knoll for sixth-most in NFL history. ... Atlanta's Matt Ryan passed John Elway for ninth on the league's career completion list - he has 4,143 - and broke a tie with Elway for No. 11 on the career TD passes list - he has 303. ... Philip Rivers made his 209th consecutive start, tying Eli Manning for the second-longest streak in NFL history. Brett Favre started 297 straight, meaning the 37-year-old Rivers would have to play five more seasons after this one to catch him.

---

STREAKS & STATS

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has 13 games of at least 300 yards passing, breaking Kurt Warner's mark for the most in the first 20 games of a career. ... The Chiefs have scored 26 or more points in an NFL-record 24 straight regular-season games. ... Denver fell to 0-6-1 all-time on the road against Green Bay. ... Miami has been outscored 133-16, the largest point differential through three games in league history since 1950. ... New England won its seventh straight over the New York Jets and earned its ninth consecutive regular-season win at home over its AFC East rival. ... Seattle's 33-27 loss to New Orleans was its first at home in the month of September under coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks had been 15-0 at home in September since 2010.

---

STARTS

With a 21-17 victory over Cincinnati, Buffalo improved to 3-0 for the first time since 2011 and only the third time in 26 years. ... Bengals rookie coach Zac Taylor, who took over after Marvin Lewis was fired this offseason, became the fifth of Cincinnati's 10 coaches to open his first season 0-3, and third in a row. The worst start by a first-year Bengals coach was Sam Wyche, who lost his first five in 1984. ... The New York Jets are off to their first 0-3 start since 2003. ... Miami is 0-3 for the first time since losing its first seven in 2011. ... Dallas is 3-0 for the first time since 2008.

---

TURNING IT AROUND

After missing the playoffs last season, Buffalo (3-0), Detroit (2-0-1), Green Bay (3-0) and San Francisco (3-0) are all off to undefeated starts. It marks the fourth time since 1990 - when the current playoff format began - that at least four teams have started the season without a loss in their first three games after missing the postseason the previous year. It also happened in the 2013, 2003 and 2002 seasons.

---

DOMINANT D

With a 30-14 victory over the New York Jets, the New England Patriots became the first team in the Super Bowl era to not allow a rushing or passing touchdown in their first three games. The Patriots are also the first team to hold opponents scoreless in the first half of five consecutive games, including the postseason, the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era.

---

MR. JONES

Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for two TDs, including the go-ahead score with 1:16 remaining as the New York Giants rallied from an 18-point halftime deficit to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32-31. Jones, making his first NFL start in place of benched two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning, also led the Giants with 28 yards rushing on four attempts. He is the first rookie with at least 300 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a single game since 1970.

---

PASSING PAT

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes threw for 374 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 132.0 rating in the Chiefs' 33-28 win over Baltimore. Through 20 NFL games, Mahomes has the highest marks in yards passing (6,576), TD passes (60) and passer rating (115.3) in NFL history. His 13 games of at least 300 yards top Kurt Warner's previous mark of 12 through a player's first 20 games. Mahomes is also the first player with at least 350 yards passing, three touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games in NFL history.

---

YOUNG GUNS

Kyle Allen threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns in place of the injured Cam Newton, helping the Carolina Panthers beat the Arizona Cardinals 38-20. The 23-year-old Allen was outstanding in his second career start, making several big throws, finishing 19 of 26, including two touchdowns to Greg Olsen and one each to Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore. He outplayed Arizona's Kyler Murray, who was his former college teammate at Texas A&M. Murray was 30 of 43 for 173 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also ran for 69 yards. But Murray was also sacked eight times.

---

TOUCHDOWN TEDDY

Teddy Bridgewater threw two touchdown passes in his first start in place of Drew Brees, leading New Orleans past the Seattle Seahawks 33-27. Bridgewater threw a 29-yard touchdown to Alvin Kamara late in the first half on a screen pass where the talented running back bounced off several tacklers on his way to the end zone. He added a 1-yard TD toss to Michael Thomas on fourth-and-goal on the first possession of the second half, a drive kept alive by an illegal formation penalty against Seattle on a missed field goal attempt. It was Bridgewater's first win as a starting quarterback since Jan. 3, 2016, the final week of the 2015 season.

---

SHAQ ATTAQ

Tampa Bay linebacker Shaquil Barrett had four sacks in the Buccaneers' 32-31 loss to the New York Giants. He has eight sacks in three games, tying the Jets' Mark Gastineau (1984) for the most in the first three games of a season since 1982 - when sacks became an official sack.

---

IMMEDIATE IMPACT

Pittsburgh safety Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted a pass in the first quarter of the Steelers' 24-20 loss at San Francisco and forced a fumble by Raheem Mostert in the red zone in the second quarter that Devin Bush recovered. Fitzpatrick, acquired from Miami this past week in a deal that sent a first-round pick to the Dolphins, became the first Steelers player with an interception and forced fumble in the opening half since James Harrison did it against the Chargers on Nov. 16, 2008.

---

COOK-ING WITH GAS

Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 110 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' 34-14 win over Oakland, becoming the fifth player in NFL history with at least 110 yards rushing and a TD run in each of his team's first three games. Cook joins Jim Brown (1958), O.J. Simpson (1975), Emmitt Smith (1995) and Curtis Martin (2004).

---

SIDELINED

Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman left the Patriots' win against the Jets with a chest injury. He caught a pass, fell on his right side and was sandwiched by Harvey Langi and Henry Anderson. Edelman got up holding his rib area. ... Giants running back Saquon Barkley left his team's 32-31 win over Tampa Bay with a right ankle injury late in the first half. He was seen on crutches and with a boot on the ankle afterward. ... Miami wide receiver Allen Hurns had to be taken off the field after a jarring play at Dallas, just as he did in the playoffs last season when he played for the Cowboys. Hurns stayed down for a couple of minutes after a huge hit from Dallas safety Jeff Heath that resulted in an incompletion. He was ruled out with a concussion. ... Atlanta safety Keanu Neal was carted off the field late in the first half at Indianapolis with an Achilles tendon injury. He missed last season after tearing an ACL in the season opener. ... Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton aggravated a quadriceps injury. ... Chiefs running back LeSean McCoy aggravated his sore ankle on his touchdown catch in the fourth quarter.

---

SPEAKING

''I took basically one shot. I hit the ground one time. So, I'm ecstatic. I've been at this for a long time. To go home with my body feeling this good is a credit to the offensive line, for sure.'' - Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't sacked and was barely touched by Denver's defense in the Packers' 27-16 victory.

---

''I was feeling like everyone was open and I was throwing it to people in my color jersey who were open. It was just one of those days.'' - Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who threw for 310 yards and two TDs in Indianapolis' 27-24 win over Atlanta

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday??

Packers 27, Broncos 16:
? Denver is 0-3 for the first time since 1999.
? Since 2012, Broncos are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog.
? Denver still doesn?t have a sack or a takeaway this year.

? Packers had six sacks, three takeaways (+3).
? Broncos were 8-15 on third down, Green Bay 2-9
? SouthPoint has a prop bet; Packers (8-1) were first team to score a TD Sunday.

Lions 27, Eagles 24:
? Detroit is 2-0-1, its best start since a 4-0 start in 2011.
? Jamal Agnew returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD.
? Marvin Jones caught six passes for 101 yards.

? Eagles covered only twice in last ten games as a home favorite.
? Philly has trailed all three of its games at halftime, outscored 50-23.
? Eagles dropped seven passes, were called for offensive interference three times.

Chiefs 33, Ravens 28:
? Lamar Jackson was only 22-43 passing, ran for only 46 yards.
? Jackson is 8-2 as a starter, with both losses in Kansas City.
? Ravens tried a drop kick/onside kick that didn?t work but was cool to watch.

? Total yardage was 503-452 Chiefs.
? KC ran 54 plays; only nine of them were on third down.
? Chiefs are 10-6 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bills 21, Bengals 17:
? Bengals lost first two road games by total of five points.
? Cincy covered eight of last ten games as road underdogs.
? Zac Taylor is 3rd Bengal HC in row to start his Cincy career 0-3.

? Bills led 14-0 at half, needed TD with 1:50 left for the win.
? Josh Allen?s first 12 completions went to nine different receivers.
? Buffalo won five of last six series games, five of which were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Colts 27, Falcons 24:
? Atlanta had four turnovers (-2), has 10 in three games (-5).
? In three games, Falcons have thrown ball 123 times, run it only 54 times.
? Atlanta is now 0-11 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC foes, 1-8 ATS in last nine games as road underdogs

? Brissett threw for 310 yards, averaging 8.1 yards/attempt.
? Indy has converted 19-35 third down plays this season.
? Last 2+ years, Colts are 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Vikings 34, Raiders 14:
? Oakland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on artificial turf.
? Raiders were 3-11 on 3rd down, after being 16-28 in first two games.
? Last 2+ years, Oakland is 3-13-1 ATS as road underdog.

? Vikings ran ball for 211 yards, have 581 RY in three games.
? Dalvin Cook is first player in Vikings history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the team?s first three games of a season.
? Minnesota covered 16 of last 21 games vs AFC opponents; they?re 21-5-1 ATS in last 27 games as a HF.

Patriots 30, Jets 14:
? Jets lost last four visits to Foxboro by combined score of 135-26.
? NYJ gained 101 yards on 46 plays, had only six first downs.
? Jets are 0-3 for the first time since 2003.

? NE covered 13 of its last 15 games as a home favorite.
? Patriots won first three games by combined score of 106-17.
? First TD NE allows this year comes on a muffed punt recovered by the Jets in end zone.

Cowboys 31, Dolphins 6:
? Miami lost a fumble in red zone when they trailed only 10-6 near end of 1st half.
? Dolphins have been outscored 68-0 in second half of games.
? 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

? Cowboys are 3-0 for first time since 2008.
? Dallas scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.
? Cowboys converted 18-31 third down plays this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top six picks for Week 3 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Colts -1.5 (674)- W
5) Ravens +6.5 (794)- W
4) Steelers +6.5 (934)- W
3) Lions +6 (937)- W
2) Seahawks -4 (974)- L
1) Rams -3 (1,474)- W

2019 record: 12-6


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday??

Packers 27, Broncos 16:
? Denver is 0-3 for the first time since 1999.
? Since 2012, Broncos are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog.
? Denver still doesn?t have a sack or a takeaway this year.

? Packers had six sacks, three takeaways (+3).
? Broncos were 8-15 on third down, Green Bay 2-9
? SouthPoint has a prop bet; Packers (8-1) were first team to score a TD Sunday.

Lions 27, Eagles 24:
? Detroit is 2-0-1, its best start since a 4-0 start in 2011.
? Jamal Agnew returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD.
? Marvin Jones caught six passes for 101 yards.

? Eagles covered only twice in last ten games as a home favorite.
? Philly has trailed all three of its games at halftime, outscored 50-23.
? Eagles dropped seven passes, were called for offensive interference three times.

Chiefs 33, Ravens 28:
? Lamar Jackson was only 22-43 passing, ran for only 46 yards.
? Jackson is 8-2 as a starter, with both losses in Kansas City.
? Ravens tried a drop kick/onside kick that didn?t work but was cool to watch.

? Total yardage was 503-452 Chiefs.
? KC ran 54 plays; only nine of them were on third down.
? Chiefs are 10-6 ATS last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bills 21, Bengals 17:
? Bengals lost first two road games by total of five points.
? Cincy covered eight of last ten games as road underdogs.
? Zac Taylor is 3rd Bengal HC in row to start his Cincy career 0-3.

? Bills led 14-0 at half, needed TD with 1:50 left for the win.
? Josh Allen?s first 12 completions went to nine different receivers.
? Buffalo won five of last six series games, five of which were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Colts 27, Falcons 24:
? Atlanta had four turnovers (-2), has 10 in three games (-5).
? In three games, Falcons have thrown ball 123 times, run it only 54 times.
? Atlanta is now 0-11 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC foes, 1-8 ATS in last nine games as road underdogs

? Brissett threw for 310 yards, averaging 8.1 yards/attempt.
? Indy has converted 19-35 third down plays this season.
? Last 2+ years, Colts are 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Vikings 34, Raiders 14:
? Oakland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on artificial turf.
? Raiders were 3-11 on 3rd down, after being 16-28 in first two games.
? Last 2+ years, Oakland is 3-13-1 ATS as road underdog.

? Vikings ran ball for 211 yards, have 581 RY in three games.
? Dalvin Cook is first player in Vikings history to rush for 100+ yards in each of the team?s first three games of a season.
? Minnesota covered 16 of last 21 games vs AFC opponents; they?re 21-5-1 ATS in last 27 games as a HF.

Patriots 30, Jets 14:
? Jets lost last four visits to Foxboro by combined score of 135-26.
? NYJ gained 101 yards on 46 plays, had only six first downs.
? Jets are 0-3 for the first time since 2003.

? NE covered 13 of its last 15 games as a home favorite.
? Patriots won first three games by combined score of 106-17.
? First TD NE allows this year comes on a muffed punt recovered by the Jets in end zone.

Cowboys 31, Dolphins 6:
? Miami lost a fumble in red zone when they trailed only 10-6 near end of 1st half.
? Dolphins have been outscored 68-0 in second half of games.
? 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

? Cowboys are 3-0 for first time since 2008.
? Dallas scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.
? Cowboys converted 18-31 third down plays this season.

Giants 32, Bucs 31:
? Daniel Jones threw for two TD?s, ran for two more in his first NFL start.
? Shepard/Engram both had 100+ receiving yards.
? This was Giants? first win when trailing by 18+ points at the half since 1949.

? Bucs in first half: 39 plays, 345 yards, 3 TD?s, 3 FG?s, led 28-10 at half.
? Bucs in 2nd half: 39 plays, 178 yards, one FG.
? Tampa Bay missed two PAT?s, and then a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game.

Panthers 38, Cardinals 20:
? Kyle Allen?s 2nd NFL start: 19-26, 261 yards, four TD?s.
? McCaffrey ran for 153 yards, including a 76-yard TD run.
? Carolina had a 14-yard edge in field position.

? Murray was sacked 8 times, averaged just 2.5 yards/pass attempt.
? Cardinals have been outscored 48-16 in first half of their games.
? Arizona is 14-19-1 ATS in their last 34 home games.

49ers 24, Steelers 20:
? Rudolph was 14-27/174 passing, with TD passes of 76-39 yards.
? Steelers were 3-12 on third down, 49ers were 6-11.
? Total yardage was 436-239, SF.

? 49ers won despite turning ball over four of first five times they had ball.
? SF is now 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite
? Niners scored 17 points on three drives that started in Pitt territory.

Saints 33, Seahawks 27:
? Saints scored their first two TD?s on a punt return and fumble return.
? NO is 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
? Bridgewater is now 18-11 as a starting QB.

? Seattle?s first 8 drives: 42 plays, 265 yards, 7 points.
? Seattle?s last 4 drives: 34 plays, 244 yards, 20 points.
? Seahawks are 4-9-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

Texans 27, Chargers 20:
? Watson threw for 351 yards, averaged 9.4 yards/attempt.
? Houston has converted 19-38 third down plays this year.
? Texans covered five of last six tries as a road underdog, are 12-8-1 ATS in last 21 games where spread was 3 or fewer points.

? Chargers in first half: 34 plays, 204 yards, 17 points.
? Chargers in second half: 37 plays, 162 yards, 3 points.
? Chargers are 5-10 ATS as a home favorite in Carson.

Rams 20, Browns 13:
? LA in 16 first half drives this year: one TD, five FG?s. No bueno.
? Under McVay, LA is 9-5 ATS as a road favorite
? LA had 3 turnovers (-2), missed a FG, still got a road win. Muy bueno.

? Four trips to red zone, Cleveland scored only 13 points.
? Browns are 7-16-1 ATS in last 24 games as a home underdog
? Cleveland is only 11-39 on third down this season.