CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 4 odds: Life is a highway for the road-weary Chiefs
Jason Logan

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they visit the Lions in Detroit this Sunday.

In the daily battle against the big bad bookies, sports bettors have an arsenal of weapons at their disposal ? some more effective than others.

One of the most popular methods of getting a leg up on the sportsbooks is situational handicapping: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays ? or spot bets ? are ?letdowns?, ?lookaheads?, and ?schedule? spots.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 4 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3, 49)

This letdown spot started setting the table back on April 25. That was Day 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft, on which the Giants selected Duke QB Daniel Jones with the sixth-overall pick. It was a baffling pick that was instantly criticized and continued to be so until Jones showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason.

New York finally pulled the plug on Eli Manning?s time as the starter versus the Buccaneers in Week 3, turning the keys to the franchise over to the 22-year-old rookie. And Jones stepped up, passing for two touchdowns and running in two more with RB Saquon Barkley on the sideline with an ankle sprain. The Giants got the win thanks to a botched last-second field goal attempt from Tampa Bay, and the G-Men?s front office breathed a collective sigh of relief. They were right and everybody else was wrong. Suck it.

That thrilling win (and ?I told you so!? moment) sets up New York for a letdown spot in Week 4, hosting the rival Redskins as a 3-point favorite. As mentioned, Jones doesn?t have Barkley to draw the eye of the defense and was sacked five times in the squeaker at Tampa last Sunday. The Redskins' rotten defense has been roughed up, but they?ve also been on the field an average of 33:08 minutes per game (fourth most) thanks to turnovers from the offense. If the stop unit can force some turnovers of its own versus a rookie QB, the Giants could fall for this longgggggggg-running letdown.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7, 45)

Even the pros get caught fantasizing. Given their circumstances entering the season (you know? Their franchise QB abruptly packing it in), a 2-1 start to the 2019 schedule has to have the Colts feeling good about their chances in the AFC South. And hell, if not for Adam Vinatieri finally showing cracks in his once-unflappable leg, Indianapolis could be 3-0 in the post-Andrew Luck era.

The Colts have great shot at jumping to 3-1 with the road-rashed Raiders coming to town in Week 4. Oakland (which is on a crazy 49-day gap between home games) lost at Minnesota in an early 1 p.m. ET starts in Week 3 and travels to London, England for Week 5 (vs. Chicago) after this 1 p.m. ET game in Indy Sunday. Shouldn?t be too much trouble for the red-hot Colts, right?

Indianapolis could get caught looking past the tarnished Silver and Black and ahead to Week 5 when they travel to dreaded Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. There are also key injuries on both sides of the ball for the Colts heading into this Sunday?s game, with top WR T.Y. Hilton dealing with a nagging quadriceps injury, safety Malik Hooker out of action (knee), and LB Darius Leonard in concussion protocol.


SCHEDULE SPOT: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DETROIT LIONS (+6.5, 54)

The Chiefs find themselves back in the visitors locker room for the third time in the first four weeks of the season when they take on the "undefeated" Lions in Detroit this Sunday. Kansas City opened 2019 with back-to-back road games in Jacksonville and Oakland before a grueling home opener against Baltimore in Week 3.

Not only does a road heavy schedule weigh on players and staff, but this is the Chiefs. The AFC?s No. 1 seed from a season ago was able to catch plenty of teams off guard at the start of 2018 campaign (which led to a perfect 7-0 ATS mark through the first seven games), but now have a huge target on its back as teams get up to play the conference?s elite.

Kansas City?s offense also limps into Week 4 with WR Tyreek Hill out (collarbone), LT Eric Fisher sidelined (hernia), and running backs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams listed as day-to-day with their respective ailments. The rigors of the road could compound those issues come Sunday, especially with K.C. giving a near touchdown as the visitor.

 

[Cnotes53]

TNF - Eagles at Packers
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Eagles (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) are one of three teams in the NFL that has not covered a game yet this season, along with the Chargers and Dolphins (who meet this week). All three games for Philadelphia this season have been decided by five points or less, including last Sunday?s 27-24 home setback to Detroit. The Eagles failed to cash as four-point favorites to drop to 1-7 ATS in Carson Wentz?s last eight starts since Week 10 of 2018.

Philadelphia played without its top two wide receivers with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery sidelined, while Wentz threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Both scoring strikes went to Nelson Agholor, who led Philadelphia with eight receptions, but the Eagles dropped to 0-2 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field this season. The Eagles allowed a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by the Lions, but Philadelphia blocked a field goal late and had an opportunity to tie the game, but turned the ball over on downs.

The Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) are one of three NFC teams to own 3-0 records through three weeks, as Green Bay will face another one of those unbeaten squads in Week 5 with a trip to Dallas. Green Bay avoided a letdown spot after beating division rivals Chicago and Minnesota the first two weeks by pulling away from Denver last Sunday, 27-16 to cash as seven-point home favorites.

Green Bay?s defense has stepped up through the first three weeks by allowing a total of 35 points, which is the second-fewest given up in the league behind New England?s 17 points. Aaron Rodgers is not putting up normal Aaron Rodgers numbers through three weeks as the Packers? All-Pro quarterback has not broken the 300-yard passing mark in any of the three games. Rodgers connected with Marquez Valdez-Scantling on a 40-yard touchdown early, but the Green Bay signal-caller finished with 235 yards, while the Packers rushed for only 77 yards on 23 carries.

SACRIFICIAL LAMBEAU

Green Bay continues to own a solid home-field advantage at Lambeau Field by posting a 7-2-1 record since the start of 2018. Taking it a step further, in the last 16 games in Green Bay (including the playoffs) that Rodgers has started and finished, the Packers are 14-1-1 SU and 12-4 ATS, with the only loss coming to Arizona last season as a 13 ?-point favorite. The caveat of starting and finishing the game applies since Rodgers played the opening three series in the Week 17 finale against Detroit last season in a meaningless 31-0 defeat.

SILENT DOGS

The Eagles sit in the underdog role for the first time this season, as Philadelphia posted a 3-2 ATS mark when receiving points last season. However, all three of those covers came with Nick Foles at quarterback, which included a victory as a 13 ?-point underdog against the Rams and the narrow playoff victory at Chicago. In fact, the Eagles went 0-2 ATS as a ?dog with Wentz under center as Philadelphia was blown at New Orleans and was squeezed in an overtime setback at Dallas. However, the last underdog cover produced by Wentz did come in a Thursday night road game in a 28-23 triumph at Carolina in 2017.

SERIES HISTORY

The Eagles won five consecutive matchups with the Packers from 2003 through 2006, which included a divisional playoff victory in the 2003 postseason. However, Green Bay has turned the tables since then by winning five of six matchups from 2007 through 2016, although only three of the last 10 meetings have come at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay topped Philadelphia in a Monday night matchup at Lincoln Financial Field in the previous showdown in 2016 as the Pack pulled away for a 27-13 victory as four-point underdogs. The Packers entered that night on a four-game skid, but that win at Philadelphia sprung Green Bay on a six-game winning streak and a trip to the NFC championship before falling at Atlanta. Rodgers outdueled Wentz that night as Green Bay held the ball for over 35 minutes and the Green Bay quarterback threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay owns a 4-0 record against Philadelphia with Rodgers starting, while Wentz makes his first ever start at Lambeau Field.

FIRST HALF/SECOND HALF NUMBERS

The Packers have started well in all three games by outscoring their opponents, 45-23, while covering in all three first halves. The ?under? has cashed in the second half in all three of Green Bay?s games, as the Packers have scored only one touchdown after halftime this season.

The Eagles have not covered in the first half this season in three games, while going 2-1 ATS in the second half with both covers coming at home against the Redskins and Lions.

HOORAY FOR THURSDAY

Philadelphia has won the last four Thursday night contests since 2016, including three with Wentz as the starting quarterback. The Packers own a 4-2 mark on Thursday night since 2015, as Green Bay is 2-1 in this stretch at Lambeau Field. The underdog/?under? combination has hit in all three Thursday games this season, while the winning team has not scored more than 20 points in any of those contests.

TOTAL TALK

Including the 24-20 loss at Atlanta in Week 2, the Eagles have now seen the ?under? produce a 4-0-1 record in their last five road games dating back to last season. Chris David is aware of that current streak but he believes the total run could be short-lived for Philadelphia based on previous tendencies.

David explains, ?The book on Philadelphia has been a quick read under head coach Doug Pederson since he took over in 2016. You get great defensive efforts at the Linc, but the unit hasn?t travelled well. The current trend is leaning ?under? but two of those games were in the playoffs and the other matchup was a meaningless Week 17 matchup. In the other two contests, the Birds allowed 24 and 23 points.?

?Including those five games, Pederson has coached in 26 road games with Philadelphia. My attention is on the 21 other results and you?ve got data that?s hard to ignore. The Eagles went 8-13 in those games while allowing 25.6 PPG and that translated into an eye-opening 15-5-1 ?over? (75%) record. Coincidentally, the team total for Green Bay is hovering between 25 and 26 points. Knowing the Eagles are banged-up on defense and they haven?t looked sharp on that side of the ball, I?m expecting Green Bay to get on the board on the short week.?

?As far as the game total, I?d likely lean ?over? 46. Green Bay?s defense has looked great so far and it leads the league in takeaways (8) but I believe the overall numbers have been helped by the opponents they faced, in particular the offensive units. Wentz hasn?t been sharp for the Eagles and not having a healthy wide receiver corps has hurt, but he?s clearly better than the first trio that the Packers have faced in Trubisky, Cousins and Flacco.?

Historically, this series has been one-sided to the ?under? with the low side cashing in eight of the last 10 meetings.

For those looking for Thursday Night trends, the Eagles have watched the ?over? cash in their last three mid-week games dating back to 2016. Green Bay has watched it?s last two Thursday games go ?over? and the Packers put up 27 and 35 points, winning both decisions.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his view on the Packers? hot start, ?Ranking 28th in yards per play offense (behind teams like Pittsburgh and Tennessee) the Packers don?t have a typical 3-0 profile even with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. The defense has good overall numbers but has allowed 4.9 yards per rush and in facing Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver, the Packers are yet to take on an elite offensive team or opposing quarterback.?

?The case can be made that the Packers are a phony contender with three narrow wins in which they have been out-gained by their opposition overall but have benefitted from posting the best turnover differential in the NFL at +6. Others will say that the team is only going to improve with more time under Matt LaFleur given some significant roster and system changes in the off-season and that this is a budding Super Bowl threat that is 3-0 without coming close to its potential yet,? Nelson notes.

Focusing on Philadelphia, Nelson makes some interesting points regarding the Eagles, ?The scoring differential for the Eagles is just -2 through a 1-2 start and in contrast to the Packers, the Eagles have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 2.9 yards per rush, 2nd best in the league through three weeks. Philadelphia?s offense has disappointed so far through a schedule that isn?t likely to have featured elite defensive teams, 24th in the NFL posting 5.2 yards per play. That figure is 0.4 yards per play better than Green Bay but the Packers have faced teams with strong defensive reputations.?

PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions ? Carson Wentz (PHI)
Over 23 ? (-110)
Under 23 ? (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes ? Carson Wentz (PHI)
Over 1 ? (-120)
Under 1 ? (Even)

Total Receiving Yards ? Nelson Agholor (PHI)
Over 46 ? (-110)
Under 46 ? (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards ? Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 264 ? (-110)
Under 264 ? (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes ? Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Over 1 ? (-150)
Under 1 ? (+130)

Total Receiving Yards ? Davante Adams (GB)
Over 81 ? (-110)
Under 81 ? (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Packers opened as two-point favorites when CG Technologies released their weekly odds back in June. Green Bay is currently a four-point favorite with the total sitting at 46. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50?s at kickoff and there is no threat of rain at Lambeau Field.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Notes
You have a list of around seven college games at the top of your page are you going to put down any thoughts on those games because I?m interested in three or four of the same games you seem to be was wondering your opinion, thanks for your work on everything :0cornnotes good luck

 

[Cnotes53]

bosbabiesarm i have no idea what your saying i don't see anything about college football on the top of the page. Check the college football thread.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

bosbabiesarm i have no idea what your saying i don't see anything about college football on the top of the page. Check the college football thread.

Yes notes that?s my fault I didn?t realize I was in the NFL thread and thought I was still in the college thread my mistake buddy:facepalm:

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at GB 08:20 PM

GB -3.5

O 46.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Eagles pick off Rodgers' late pass, beat Packers 34-27
September 26, 2019
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GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Nigel Bradham picked off Aaron Rodgers' pass in the end zone with 20 seconds left, Jordan Howard gashed Green Bay for his second career three-touchdown game and the Philadelphia Eagles ended a two-game losing streak with a 34-27 victory over the Packers on Thursday night.

Howard finished with 87 yards on 15 carries and two touchdowns rushing and one receiving, Carson Wentz went 16 for 27 for 160 yards, three scores and no turnovers, and the Eagles (2-2) rebounded after losing consecutive games by a combined seven points.

Rodgers started 10 for 10 and finished 34 for 53 for 422 yards, two touchdowns and a fumble that set up a short Philadelphia scoring drive.

Davante Adams had a career-high 180 yards on 10 catches for Green Bay, but he wasn't on the field for the Packers (3-1) on the last drive because of a toe injury.

After punting on its first two drives and falling behind 10-0, Philadelphia scored on four straight possessions against a defense that had only given up 35 points through the first three games.

Sacked six times in the previous two games, Wentz managed to stay clean throughout most of the game. Zach Ertz had a team-high seven catches for 65 yards, and Alshon Jeffery, who missed all but six snaps over the past two weeks with a calf injury, finished with 38 yards and a touchdown on three catches.

Running back Jamaal Williams caught a pass from Rodgers for no gain and was leveled by defensive Derek Barnett on Green Bay's first play from scrimmage. Williams was wheeled off on a stretcher and did not return. Barnett was hit with an unnecessary roughness penalty. Williams was being evaluated for head and neck injuries. The Packers said Williams had feeling in his extremities.

Williams turned out to be the first of a plethora of injuries on the night for both teams. Eagles cornerback Avonte Maddox was carted off the field on a stretcher late in the fourth quarter.

Rodgers and Adams connected on a 58-yard completion on the opening drive. It was the longest play of the season for Green Bay, who continued its trend of hot starts. Aaron Jones scored from 3 yards out two plays later to give the Packers the early lead.

Rodgers was 4 of 4 for 71 yards on the opening drive.

Mason Crosby added a field goal in the beginning of the second quarter to make it 10-0.

The Eagles finally got a little momentum on a 67-yard return by Miles Sanders on the ensuing kickoff. The return set up a 6-yard score by Jeffery.

Rodgers and Adams linked up again for a 40-yard gain on the next drive, which again ended in a field goal for Green Bay to give the Packers a 13-7 lead.

Wentz found tight end Dallas Goedert for a 3-yard touchdown strike. The score gave the Eagles a 14-13 lead just before the two-minute warning.

Rodgers fumbled on the following drive after a strip-sack by Barnett. The Eagles capitalized with 1-yard score by Howard. Howard's touchdown made it 21-13 with 54 seconds to go.

Rodgers needed just 50 seconds to lead the Packers 70 yards. The two-time MVP found Geronimo Allison for a 31-yard gain, and the pair linked up for a 19-yard touchdown to make it 21-20 at the half.

The Eagles opened the second half with a 20-yard score from Wentz to Howard. After a failed two-point conversion attempt, Philadelphia led 27-20.

Jimmy Graham got his first catch and score since Week 1. Graham had six catches for 61 yards and a 14-yard touchdown that tied the game at 27-27 with 3:16 to go in the third.

Howard scored his third touchdown on a 2-yard run that made it 34-27 at the start of the fourth.

The Eagles picked up the win despite committing nine penalties for 93 yards.

CLIMBING THE RECORD BOOKS

Rodgers passed Fran Tarkenton for sole possession of ninth place in NFL history with 344 career passing touchdown. Eli Manning sits in eighth place with 362.

INJURIES

Eagles: CB Sidney Jones suffered a hamstring injury and did not return. That leaves Philadelphia with only two healthy cornerbacks - Rasul Douglas and Craig James - on the roster.

Packers: CB Tony Brown suffered a hamstring injury and did not return. RT Bryan Bulaga left with a shoulder injury. He also did not return. S Will Redmond was being evaluated for a concussion. CB Kevin King suffered a groin injury. Adams suffered an injured toe.

UP NEXT

Eagles: Host New York Jets on Oct. 6

Packers: At Dallas on Oct. 6.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, September 29, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens
1:00 PM New England Patriots Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Carolina Panthers Houston Texans
1:00 PM Oakland Raiders Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM Washington Redskins New York Giants
4:05 PM Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Los Angeles Rams
4:25 PM Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears
4:25 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos
8:20 PM Dallas Cowboys New Orleans Saints

Monday, September 30, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers


***********************************


NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/26/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1..........53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1...........57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0...........75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0..........61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0........... 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............53-41-1........ 56.38%............ +39.50


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................20 - 19............+1.00.............25 - 16 ...........+37.00..........+38.00

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Betting Trends through Week 3:

Road Teams: 31-16-1 ATS
Home Teams: 16-31-1 ATS

Favorites: 20-27-1 ATS
Underdogs: 27-20-1 ATS

Home Faves: 10-21-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 6-10 ATS

Road Faves: 10-6 ATS
Road Dogs: 21-10-1 ATS

Over/Under: 22-26

 

[Cnotes53]

BREAKING BAD

So far this season, we are 3-0 prop betting against the Miami Dolphins. Each week is getting harder to find value. If you do find it, you have to make the plays early in the week as what is -110 on Thursday is closer to -170 on Sunday.

The Dolphins are a 16-point home dog entering their Sunday matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Josh Rosen really doesn?t change much in terms of evaluating the team from a betting standpoint as the Dolphins are next-level bad. The Chargers are 6th in the league allowing 6.2 points in the first half while the Dolphins have put together 16 points through three first halves.

We are backing the Dolphins first-half team total Under 6.5 at -111 as the odds are better than Under 0.5 first-half touchdowns which sits at -125

If you?re really looking for a score, the Chargers to win to nil in the first half is +300 or if you think the Dolphins are on the verge of something special offensively, like three points, grab the Over 0.5 first-half field goals for -125


JACOBS' LADDER

Last week, Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman ran for 88 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, which was more than twice his total rushing yardage from the previous two weeks. A lot of this had to do with the absence of Indy's All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard who is still in concussion protocol and very doubtful for Sunday?s game against Josh Jacobs and the Oakland Raiders.

The potential loss in the middle is bad news for the Colts who sit in 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Conversely, this is great news for Jacobs who is 13th in yards per rush at 5.1 yards, right between Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott. The problem is the Raiders, who are 6.5-point road dogs, may fall behind early but with Jacobs? floor of 10-12 carries he still has the ability to rip off long gains as his long run of 51 yards this year is the eighth-best mark of the year. Hit the Over on Josh Jacobs 77.5 rushing yards.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 27, 2019
By Micah Roberts

Las Vegas sportsbooks got Week 4 of the NFL season started on a high note with the Philadelphia Eagles earning a 31-27 road win at Green Bay (-3.5, 45.5) on Thursday night.

?We had a great night with the Eagles winning,? CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said. ?It was one of our better games of the year.?

The isolated night games have been big trouble traditionally for the books, evident last Sunday when the Rams defeated the Browns 20-13 in the Week 3.

Let?s take a closer look at some of the games that have been receiving the most attention in Week 4.

?It?s been slow so far this week, not a lot of things happening so far,? DiTomasso said Friday afternoon. ?We had a $30,000 bet on the Chiefs laying -6.5, but it wasn?t a wise guy.

The Chiefs opened as six-point road favorites at Detroit and this matchup has the highest total of the week at 54.5. The Chiefs have gone 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and they?ve gone 'over' the total in 16 of their last 21 games outside of Arrowhead.

As expected, the Chiefs-Over combination will be an extremely popular two-team parlay and two-team teaser this week.

?We also had a bet on the Giants at -3 (-105) against the Redskins,? DiTomasso said.

People are believing in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in his home debut after he made a sensational first impression leading the Giants to a 32-31 road win at Tampa Bay last week.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis says sharp action at his books have taken the Giants, Saints (they took +3, it?s +2.5 now) and Seahawks.

The Seahawks have moved from -4 up to the dead number of -5.5 so it won?t take much to push this game to -6. The Seahawks come off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints who were playing without QB Drew Brees.

Make a note that the underdog has gone 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings of this NFC West rivalry.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says their top sharp plays this week are the Giants, Raiders (+6.5 at Colts), and Buccaneers (+9.5 at Rams).

?The wise guys are also on the Vikings this week,? DiTomasso said.

The Vikings were getting +2.5 at Chicago and it?s down to +1.5 as of Friday afternoon.

?The top parlay games of the week in ticket counts are the Chiefs, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens,? DiTomasso said. ?We also took a $10,000 bet on the Patriots to make us about $25,000 high on them so far.?

Caesars? Davis says their top public parlay plays are the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens as well. Kornegay says the Chiefs, Patriots and Cowboys would be their worst case 3-team parlay cashing.

The Chiefs are one of three teams to be a perfect 3-0 against-the-spread so far along with the Cowboys and Rams, so they figure to be popular choices, but the Ravens have gone just 1-2 ATS meaning that the public love for the Ravens is more about hating the Browns.

?The public has turned quickly on the Browns,? DiTomasso said. ?That fourth down and nine running play on Monday night for all to see gave a bad impression for a lot of people I think.?

The 1-2 Browns came into the season with loads of hype and became one of the biggest Super Bowl risks for the sportsbooks, but the SuperBook has circled back past their original opening 20-to-1 odds to win number.

As of Monday, JK and his staff have pushed the Browns up to 60-to-1 to hoist the SB54 Trophy in Miami next February.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 15 years.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By Joe Williams

It's time for Week 4 in the National Football League, and we're hitting the quarter pole already. Where has the time gone? We're getting a great idea of who the contenders and pretenders are, especially in terms of effectiveness on offense and defense.

2019 TOTAL RESULTS - GAME & HALVES

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half

Week 3 10-6 9-7 8-7-1

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 20-28 19-28-1 26-21-1

The public scored big in Week 3, sinking books with a 10-6 over record. It was a nice rebound for the masses after watching Joey Public get killed in Week 2, with the under hitting in 13 of 16 outings. Through 48 games, the under sits at 28-20 (41%).

Savvy bettors playing the halves noticed a scoring spike in the first 30 minutes as the 'over' went 9-7 in the first-half last weekend. The high side went 8-7-1 in the second-half and that's been a solid lean overall (26-21-1) for 'over' bettors chasing points this season.

Division Bell

We had just two divisional battles in Week 3, and the total results split. The New York Jets-New England Patriots (43) game likely should've gone under, but with 21 seconds left in the third quarter the Jets came up with a fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. Then, they had a pick-six of 61 yards with 6:23 to go in the game to flip the result. The Jets scored zero points, but the Patriots backup on offense coughed up 14 points, prompting QB Tom Brady to be re-inserted into the game after backup Jarrett Stidham relieved him.

DIVISIONAL GAME RESULTS WEEK 3
Tennessee at Jacksonville Under (38) Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 7
N.Y. Jets at New England Over (43) New England 30, N.Y. Jets 14

Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 4 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: 46 to 48 ?
Seattle at Arizona: 48 to 46
Dallas at New Orleans: 45 to 47
Carolina at Houston: 46 to 47 ?
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: 43 ? to 45
Cleveland at Baltimore: 46 ? to 45
New England at Buffalo: 44 to 42 ?
Oakland at Indianapolis: 44 to 45 ?

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 4 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Minnesota at Chicago: Under 88%
New England at Buffalo: Under 82%
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Over 81%
Dallas at New Orleans: Over 76%
Carolina at Houston: Over 70%
Seattle at Arizona: Over 69%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (64 percent) in the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh matchup on Monday Night Football, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Tennessee-Atlanta (66 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 4

WEEK 3 TOTAL RESULTS
Year Over/Under

Divisional matchups 1-1

NFC vs. NFC 5-0
AFC vs. AFC 1-2
AFC vs. NFC 3-3

Week 4 is kicked off with a high-scoring Thursday night battle, as the Philadelphia-Green Bay matchup went 'over'. Through 11 primetime battles the 'under' is now 8-3, but the 'over' has connected in the last two games played at night.

Taking a look at the divisional battles for Week 4:

Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns and Ravens square off in the first divisional game for both sides. The Browns entered the season with a lot of hype due to massive additions on offense. However, the new-look offense has struggled to gain any momentum through the early going. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game through three contests, although they did manage 23 points in their only road game, a win against the Jets on Monday Night Football back in Week 2. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has passed for more touchdowns in his short career on the road, and he's been sacked less too. In eight road starts under Mayfield, the Browns are averaging 24.3 PPG.

The Ravens are having no such problems on offense, averaging 36.7 points per game to rank No. 1 in the NFL. They're also No. 1 in total yards per game (511.7) and No. 1 in rushing yards (216.7) per contest. They're also No. 7 in passing yards per outing, posting 295.0 yards per game through the air. Defensively, they have only been so-so, coughing up 350.7 total yards per game, giving up 290.3 passing yards to check in 26th. Most of that is skewed, however, as teams have passed frequently to get back into the game. Baltimore has shut down the run, allowing just 60.3 rushing yards per game to check in second in the NFL. The under has hit in four of the past five in this series, and six of the past eight in Charm City.

Other important divisional games with important trends to note:

Washington at N.Y. Giants: The Redskins offense has been a train wreck, posting 336.3 total yards per game to rank 23rd in the NFL, and they're putting up a dismal 48.0 yards per game on the ground to check in 30th. That's not good. They're still managed to post 21.0 PPG, good for 21st in the NFL. Defensively, the 'Skins have been a wreck, as well, ranking 25th with 402.7 yards per game, and they're yielding 31.3 PPG, second-worst in the NFL. Make a note that Washington is the only team to see the over cash in all three of its games.

The Giants gave rookie QB Daniel Jones his first NFL start and it went well. Granted, if the Bucs had a kicker, the G-Men and their rookie go home with a loss in Tampa last week. However, the kicker shanked it, and 'Danny Dimes' is being hailed as the second coming for Big Blue. He passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns while running for 28 yards and a pair of scores. It will be interesting to see what the rookie does in his first home start, and his first game against a divisional opponent. However, while Jones was the good news from last week's road win, the bad news is RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) is expected to miss several weeks due to a high-ankle sprain. The Giants defense is ranked 31st in total yards (460.3) and that combined with Washington's unit is one of the main reasons this total has been pushed up.

Minnesota at Chicago: The trends all point to the 'under' for both the Vikings and the Bears. the under has cashed in 23 of the past 30 divisional battles for the Vikings, while hitting in four of the past five against winning teams and four straight on the road. The Bears have hit the under is four straight divisional battles, while cashing in four straight at home. They're also 6-2 in the past eight at home agaisnt teams with a winning road mark.

Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed a little consistency, hooking up with WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion) for three touchdowns in the second quarter alone in Week 2 at Washington. However, Gabriel was lost to a concussion, and remains in the protocol. They're still 29th in total yards (275.0), 29th in passing yards (178.7) and 26th in the league in points scored (16.7). Defensively the Bears have locked it down, giving up just 13.0 PPG to rank second in the league, and they're just fifth in rushing yards allowed (68.7). Will the unders continue?

Seattle at Arizona: The 'over' has connected in five straight divisional games for the Seahawks, and they're fairly consistent overall on offense .They're ninth in total yards (390.3), while going 10th in passing yards (280.0) and points scored (25.3). The over has hit in each of the past two for the Seahawks, including a 28-26 win at Pittsburgh in their only road trip of the season so far.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray had some growing pains, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense isn't the up-tempo, high-scoring juggernaut that was expected. In fact, they're 26th in the NFL with 328.0 total yards per game, while middle of the road in passing (243.7), ranking 15th. The 'over' is 2-0 in their two home games so far, averaging 23.5 PPG while yielding 32.5 PPG. The last three meetings from the desert between this pair have watched the 'under' go 3-0.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 4, with one road team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 42 to 54 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

L.A. Chargers at Miami (1:00 p.m. ET): The Chargers look to add to the woes of the Dolphins. Miami was a little more competitive at Dallas last week, if you count 31-6 as more competitive. That's how bad things have been for the Dolphins. They have managed a total of 16 points, hitting the under in their past two. The Chargers have also struggled a bit on offense, averaging 20.0 PPG while giving up just 21.3 PPG. You can expect another lopsided score, as they're more than a two-touchdown favorite in South Florida. Second-half bettors or Live Betting enthusiasts might want to jump in on the final 30 minutes of this matchup with the Chargers averaging 3.3 PPG in the final two quarters of the season while Miami is at 0 PPG.

New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The defending champs hit the road for Western New York, a place they have fared very well over the years. However, they're facing a new-look Bills team which enters the game with an identical 3-0 record and huge expectations these days. These aren't the same Bills which have been pushed around by the Pats in the past.

The Patriots might have their most powerful offense in years, though, and that's a scary thing. They're averaging 35.3 PPG through three outings, including a 43-0 win on the road in Week 2 in their only road outing, albeit against the sorry Dolphins. New England is averaging 311.3 passing yards to rank second, and they're second in the NFL behind the Ravens in scoring. While all of that is good for the over, the defense has been on fire. They're No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (199.0), passing yards (162.3), rushing yards (36.7) and points allowed (5.7). The under has cashed in seven of the past nine inside the division for the Pats, while going 5-2 in the past seven meetings in this series.

Kansas City at Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET): The unbeaten Lions (2-0-1 SU) have hit the over in two of their three games, both on the road, while grinding out a 13-10 win and under in their only previous home game against the Chargers in Week 2. The offense has been on fire for the Chiefs, as expected, going for 28 or more points in all three games, including 34.0 PPG in their two road contests so far. These Lions have been surprisingly effective on defense, but this will obviously be their biggest test of the season. As far as trends go, Kansas City has watched the 'over' go 8-2 in their last 10 road matchups. However, Detroit is on a 6-0 'under' run its last six at Ford Field.

Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET): The Bucs could easily be going into this game at 2-1, but a missed kick at the buzzer meant a tough loss. They were able to score 31 points, though, the most of the season and their first 'over'. The Rams struggled in Cleveland on SNF despite the fact the Browns were missing their entire secondary. The Bucs have yielded 25.7 PPG through their three games, and that makes the 'over' rather attractive in this one. The Rams have racked up 25.7 PPG on offense, while the defense has allowed just 11.0 PPG in the past two after a 30-27 win in Week 1.

Under the Lights

Dallas at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Cowboys and Saints promised to be a high-flying affair. QB Drew Brees went down, and the offense was expected to struggle. However, the Saints adjusted quickly in Seattle last week, posting a 33-27 win with QB Teddy Bridgewater leading the charge. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five for Dallas against NFC foes, but the under is 5-1 in the past six on the road against teams with a winning home record. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 against NFC foes for the Saints, and 10-3-1 in the past 14 at home against teams with a winning home mark.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week is a bit of a stinker, as two 0-3 teams face off. The Bengals have really missed WR A.J. Green, as the offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG, while hitting the 'under' in each of their two road games this season. The Steelers have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, and they're figuring out their identity with QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) done for the season, so QB Mason Rudolph gets his feet wet. Pittsburgh is averaging 16.3 PPG through three games, hitting the 'under' twice in three tries. With 'Big Ben' under center last season, Pittsburgh put up some crooked numbers in night games as it averaged 32.3 PPG and the 'over' went 3-1 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
I took a bit of a beating again in Week 3, as the net loss was (-$220). The Rams-Browns game ruined what would've been a nice teaser win. That's (-$660) for the season, too. We'll look to improve heading into Week 4. As CD (see below) would say, always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Denver 37 ?
Best Under: Seattle-Arizona 48
Best First-Half Over: L.A. Chargers-Miami 22 ?

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)
Over 30 ? Jacksonville at Denver
Over 43 Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams
Over 40 Dallas at New Orleans

CD's Best Bets
Unfortunately for Chris David, he posted his second straight 1-2 week in his "Best Bet" selections on the "Bet And Collect" podcast last week and he now sits at 5-4 on the season.

For this week's Podcast, he offers up his opinion on every game with Kevin Rogers plus he provides his top selections on the below games:

Tennessee at Atlanta
Minnesota at Chicago
Cleveland at Baltimore

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS (10.75 ppg) since Nov 20, 2005 as a road dog of more than three points coming off a home game where they scored at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.77 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 after a game in which less than 22 percent of their first downs were from third down conversions.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 OU (-11.40 ppg) since Oct 05, 2017 when Jameis Winston threw at least two touchdown passes last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Vikings are 0-10-1 OU (-9.23 ppg) since Nov 16, 2014 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Bears are 13-0 OU (12.35 ppg) since Oct 14, 2007 coming off a road win where they gained less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bills are 11-0 ATS (+8.64 ppg) on turf fields off a home win in which they had more first downs than points.

 

[Cnotes53]

SuperContest Picks - Week 4
September 28, 2019

By tout site


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3

Week 4

1) Kansas City -6.5 (1463)

2) New England -7 (930)

3) Minnesota +1.5 (861)

4) Dallas -2.5 (845)

5) New Orleans +2.5 (812)

SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Philadelphia (+4) 289 Green Bay (-4) 327
Carolina (+4.5) 523 Houston (-4.5) 752
Cleveland (+6.5) 536 Baltimore (-6.5) 706
Washington (+3) 452 N.Y. Giants (-3) 385
L.A. Chargers (-15.5) 145 Miami (+15.5) 692
Oakland (+6.5) 344 Indianapolis (-6.5) 690
Kansas City (-6.5) 1463 Detroit (+6.5) 309
New England (-7) 930 Buffalo (+7) 423
Tennessee (+4) 648 Atlanta (-4) 416
Tampa Bay (+9.5) 498 L.A. Rams (-9.5) 398
Seattle (-5.5) 410 Arizona (+5.5) 461
Minnesota (+1.5) 861 Chicago (-1.5) 507
Jacksonville (+3) 497 Denver (-3) 617
Dallas (-2.5) 845 New Orleans (+2.5) 812
Cincinnati (+3.5) 318 Pittsburgh (-3.5) 336

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[Cnotes53]

Circa Picks - Week 4
September 28, 2019
By xxxxxx

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3

Week 4

1) Kansas City -6.5 (809)
2) Minnesota +2 (554)
3) New England -7 (492)
4) New Orleans +2.5 (489)
5) Houston -4 (432)

CIRCA - WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Philadelphia (+4) 125 Green Bay (-4) 134
Carolina (+4) 268 Houston (-4) 432
Cleveland (+6.5) 302 Baltimore (-6.5) 376
Washington (+2.5) 178 N.Y. Giants (-2.5) 393
L.A. Chargers (-15.5) 73 Miami (+15.5) 394
Oakland (+7) 324 Indianapolis (-7) 255
Kansas City (-6.5) 809 Detroit (+6.5) 137
New England (-7) 492 Buffalo (+7) 285
Tennessee (+4) 380 Atlanta (-4) 224
Tampa Bay (+9.5) 251 L.A. Rams (-9.5) 207
Seattle (-5) 295 Arizona (+5) 220
Minnesota (+2) 554 Chicago (-2) 188
Jacksonville (+3) 325 Denver (-3) 293
Dallas (-2.5) 428 New Orleans (+2.5) 489
Cincinnati (+4) 311 Pittsburgh (-4) 143

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
7 - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[Cnotes53]

SNF - Cowboys at Saints
September 27, 2019

tout


NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Cleveland Browns issues with shooting themselves in the foot with poor play calling, poor execution, and plenty of penalties continued under the lights last Sunday night, and yet, they still had four plays from inside the 10 to try and potentially tie the game at the end, but even that didn't work out well for Cleveland.

It's on to this week's game, and while schedule makers had something a little different in mind if New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees stayed healthy, the fact that the Saints looked so good last week up in Seattle with Teddy Bridgewater under center doesn't hurt. The Superdome is one of the best home field advantages there is in the game, especially in a primetime setting, and backup QB or not, New Orleans is always a tough out at home.

That's the task the Dallas Cowboys are trying to accomplish this week, as their 3-0 straight up record is going to get tested. Considering those three wins by Dallas have come against teams that enter Week 4 with a combined 1-8 SU record, you can understand the hesitation behind getting behind the Cowboys this week for some. Yet, Dallas has won all three of those games by at least 10 points, so it's not like they aren't handling their business in an appropriate manner, they've just got to make sure they continue to step up their game as the competition level rises.

Can the Cowboys go into New Orleans and prove the skeptics wrong that have reservations about their record, or will the Superdome claim another visitor as victims with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm?

Total Talk

It's not quite been all 'over' support for this game on Sunday, but that's definitely the popular side of this total to back. The opener of 45 didn't last long as the number climbed to 47 relatively quickly and has stayed pretty constant there ever since. Given that both teams are coming off 30+ point efforts a week ago, and Dallas has scored 30+ in all three games so far, you can understand why an opener of 45 would appear low and got the early action that it did.

But those questions that linger about the quality of the Cowboys opponents (Miami, Washington, N.Y. Giants) in regards to their 3-0 SU record have to be posed about the offense putting up 30+ points as well. The Saints defense isn't exactly the stoutest in the league themselves having allowed 27 or more in all three games so far, but that's only that way thanks to allowing a score on the final play of an already decided game versus Seattle last week.

New Orleans has shown at times so far through their three games this year that they can force key turnovers when needed (whether they stand or not), hold teams to kicking FG's, and even last week's score looks worse then it really was as Seattle had just 7 points entering the 4th. The Saints defense knows that they are going to have to do more of the heavy lifting right now with Brees on the shelf, and they proved it for at least three quarters against Seattle before playing soft with a very big lead.

At the same time, questions about the Cowboys defense have to remain given the whole quality of foe discussion, and they do catch a break not having to face Brees here. It's still the Superdome though and using running back Ezekiel Elliott and that big offensive line to dictate the tempo and control the clock to help take the fans out of the game and negate some of the Superdome effect should be in the cards for Dallas this week. Questions may remain about this Cowboys defense, but the less time they are out on the field trying to answer those questions, the better those answers may ultimately end up looking.

Line Movements

The side has been an interesting one all week, as the opener of -3.5 on Dallas didn't last long at all, while it only took about a day or so to have all those +3's on New Orleans get bought up. Since then, it's been -2.5 with the juice bouncing back and forth as bettors come in on both sides.

Typically, when a spread bounces around like that but does not hit a full three points again, those backing the favorite should be slightly concerned. Obviously, whatever happens on the field happens on the field, but for it to not get back to a full three points on Dallas suggests that there is so much resistance from New Orleans backers at that number, that books will gladly hope the game doesn't land on a three-point win for Dallas and sweep up all the vig in the end.

Again, questions about the legitimacy of the Cowboys record has something to do with that action, as does the Saints being at home in prime time, but it's hard to figure there is a distinct edge either way now. It's probably best to sit back and let the action unfold, and use whatever happens to help formulate your opinion on both teams going into Week 5.

Final Thoughts

With the side being a hard pass, it's only the total I'd be interested in looking at here. While the initial 'over' money has to be respected, based on potential game script for this game ? Dallas featuring a heavy dose of the run, and New Orleans potentially doing the same with a backup QB ? at 47, and the total not rising since that early move there, I believe you can only look 'under' now.

Prime time games this year have been on a crazy 'under' run as it was, before Chicago/Washington and Philly/GB easily cashed 'over' tickets this week, but Sunday Night games have yet to see a high-scoring game, and I'm not sure they will get one here either ? the Colts/Chiefs in Week 5 for SNF is probably a different story.

I don't think the Cowboys streak of scoring 30+ continues in this game, and for all the resistance the Saints spread bettors have created, I'm not sure their best approach to victory would be a 28-24 type affair. The Saints are on a 2-6 O/U run off a SU win as it is, 0-4 O/U off an ATS win, and Dallas has seen the 'under' cash in five of their last six games after allowing 14 points or less.

Win or lose, those that question the legitimacy of how good this Dallas team truly is this year likely get some fuel for their fire from the Cowboys performance this week, as 24-21 for either team is written all over this game.

Best Bet: Under 47 points

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 4
September 29, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Panthers at Texans (-5/47.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Kyle Allen was fantastic in his first start taking over for Cam Newton and will be playing in front of friends and family back where he went to college. Since Newton wasn?t able to throw the ball consistently downfield, we?re seeing Norv Turner digging deeper into his playbook. The Texans are better in the back than Patrick Peterson-less Arizona but have to be wary of wrinkles they haven?t seen on tape. Houston will need to get pressure to keep Allen from finding a rhythm, so J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus will need to take advantage of guard Trai Turner?s absence as the Panthers do some reshuffling up front.

Laremy Tunsil has worked with three different guards next to him since arriving from Miami, so continuity hasn?t been something the Texans have enjoyed up front. Deshaun Watson?s ability to keep plays alive with his feet has been a major factor in the Texans? early success considering all the moving parts they?ve had to deal with this month, so we could see some progress here in terms of consistency instead of them just popping off big plays. After facing pocket passers Jameis Winston and Jared Goff early, Carolina had to be wary of Kyler Murray last week and will face similar challenges here.

Browns at Ravens (-7/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: It?s unseasonably warm in Baltimore and will be in the mid-80?s, which could be a factor since Baltimore has stayed remarkably healthy by their standards this early in the season, coming off a productive camp and preseason. Lamar Jackson is off to a much better start than Baker Mayfield, who the Ravens picked off four times last season in splitting a pair of wild games. Jackson only started the finale, getting the Ravens into the postseason with a Week 17 win by running for a pair of scores.

The Browns will have to try and limit big plays without corners Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, so it?s going to be important that they get to Jackson early because breakdowns are certainly possible. Ward missed the Rams game with a hamstring issue and Williams stepped up but hasn?t practiced this week. The rookie from LSU is also dealing with a hamstring injury, so if he goes, expect the Ravens to see just how large an issue that is. Marquise ?Hollywood? Brown could have a big day.

Redskins at Giants (-3/48.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Daniel Jones has a really good shot at back-to-back wins to open his career given the Redskins? injury-related issues, and it would certainly merit the hype he?d receive in the world?s top media market since he?s going to have to win a game without Saquon Barkley again. After leading the Bucs to a comeback win following Barkley?s second-quarter high ankle sprain, Jones will again be working with Wayne Gallman in the backfield and should have enough in Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram to move the ball against a suspect Washington secondary that even allowed Mitchell Trubisky to look good on Monday night.

Case Keenum is going to try and play through a foot injury that kept him out of practice earlier this week, while top target Terry McLaurin is also likely to go after being held out with a hamstring issue. The electric rookie has scored a touchdown in all three of his games and could be a problem for a New York secondary that had no prayer of stopping Mike Evans and the Bucs? receiving corps last week and also got torched in Week 1 by Dallas. Clear conditions are expected in East Rutherford, so we could see points if Keenum can stay upright. We could also see Dwayne Haskins debut in relief. The rookie shootout angle would be fun. At this point, Washington has proven incapable of running adequately with Trent Williams still a holdout.

Chargers (-14.5/44.5) at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The latest astronomical spread involving the Dolphins should give you some pause since the Chargers aren?t unbeaten like the Patriots and Cowboys, in fact coming off consecutive losses. Josh Rosen threw for 200 yards against Dallas and moved the offense down the field before sputtering in the red zone, so Miami may be making some progress as reps set in. The offensive line will have to deal with Joey Bosa, T.J. Watt and a disruptive front seven that should have Casey Hayward in the mix despite his questionable status.

Los Angeles has a number of offensive issues that could be of concern if they?re just trying to kill clock and get out of South Florida with a .500 record and no need for style points. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Virgil Green have been ruled out, WR Mike Williams is sidelined too and speedy Travis Benjamin is considered doubtful. Justin Jackson won?t play, which means we?re likely to see Melvin Gordon debut after ending his holdout. It could be a blessing to have him out there getting carries if you?re looking to put the game away. Keenan Allen has 29 receptions and three touchdowns and figures to be a major part of the Chargers? game plan.

Raiders at Colts (-6.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Derek Carr?s struggles on the road continued in Minnesota. He threw touchdown passes at the end of both halves, the last with the team down 34-7, and has now thrown 16 interceptions and just 18 touchdowns over the past two plus-seasons. He?s got a shot to rebound here since the Colts will be down top linebacker Darius Leonard and safety Malik Hooker. Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards last week against this Indy defense, so if Derek Waller can continue creating mismatches, we could see Tyrell Williams and rookie Hunter Renfrow step up and help Carr turn the page on his road struggles. J

Jacoby Brissett has been tremendous in filling in for Andrew Luck thus far but might be missing No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton, who will be a game-time decision with a quad injury. Indy has been able to utilize its fantastic offensive line to get Marlon Mack off, so if Hilton is out, it?s likely we?ll see the Raiders key in on the run and put this game in Brissett?s hands. Vontaze Burfict will be available after missing practice time so the Raiders will have their defensive leader in place. Oakland?s offensive line is banged up, so it might be difficult to sustain drives if Carr is inaccurate and get rattled.

Chiefs (-7/54.5) at Lions, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Tyreek Hill is close to a return, likely expedited since he?s missing out on all the fun that?s gone on without him. Patrick Mahomes is your early MVP again given his numbers, having thrown for over 370 yards and 3-plus touchdowns against some solid defensive coverages. He?s gotten huge gains from Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman and hasn?t even gotten a monster game from Travis Kelce. It?s going to be hard for a Detroit defense without Darius Slay to consistently get stops, but that may be the nightmare facing Matt Patricia if his top corner can?t play through a hamstring issue. He?ll be a game-time decision. Defensive tackle Mike Daniels has already been ruled out and DT Da?Shawn Hand has been banged up for weeks, so this isn?t the ideal day for the NFL?s top offensive team to come through for a visit.

Matthew Stafford will play through a hip injury and back pain while Danny Amendola should be fine to play through a chest contusion, so the Lions should be equipped to move the football if their defense can?t hold up against Mahomes and this turns into a shootout. If Stafford can?t make it through four quarters, Jeff Driskel is expected to fill in. He?ll give the Chiefs different looks due to his ability to run the ball and keep drives alive with his scrambling, but it would be hard to see Detroit remaining unbeaten if Stafford is incapable of finishing this game out.

Patriots (-7/41.5) at Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: With the Antonio Brown circus leaving town, the Patriots had a normal week where they could actually concentrate on football and an actual threat, fellow unbeaten Buffalo, a division rival. The Patriots have had some offensive line issues creep up and Brady has been hit a little more than he would like, but ultimately, the Patriots are coming through the first month of the potentially temporary post-Gronk era with flying colors. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse will be able to play as he looks to keep a fierce Bills defense from getting to Brady. Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett have emerged next to Julian Edelman, who will play despite a chest injury. Defensive leader Dont?a Hightower is expected to go after missing portions of practice with a shoulder injury.

The Bills have dropped five straight games against New England and have lost 28 of their last 31 in this series. Josh Allen?s ability to make plays with his feet provides an interesting wrinkle, but Buffalo will be without rookie RB Devin Singletary once again. The Bills have had to do some reshuffling up front, so they?ll need to try and create turnovers and utilize Frank Gore to chew up clock and keep the chains moving as they look to pull off an upset. The Bills have defeated teams that enter the day a combined 1-8, so this will truly be a test for both teams since the Patriots have beaten teams that come in 0-9.

Titans at Falcons (-3.5/45.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Titans and Falcons are each hoping to avoid a 1-3 start, so this should be one of the day?s most competitive games. That doesn?t necessarily mean it will be fun to watch. Tennessee?s primary objective is to clean up their mistakes up front that have led to Marcus Mariota being sacked 17 times over the first three games. Left tackle Tyler Lewan has been suspended and should be back next week, so Tennessee will do whatever it takes to try and finish at .500 without him. They would certainly feel good about that considering what a disaster life has been without him and guard Kevin Pamphile.

The Falcons have to pull off this home win to keep the sharks from circling around head coach Dan Quinn. Matt Ryan hasn?t been sacked over the course of two prior meetings with Tennessee but has already thrown six interceptions in contributing to his team?s uneven start. There?s no question he?s struggling to find a rhythm and is already one pick shy of his total from all of last season. He?s facing a secondary that can punish mistakes as they did in their lone victory so far on the road in Cleveland. The Titans have dropped consecutive games against the Falcons, last winning in Atlanta way back in 2003.

Bucs at Rams (-9/49), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX: The Bucs let a win get away after a Matt Gay chip-shot field goal missed at the gun, allowing the Giants to steal a game in Tampa that they had trailed all day. Jameis Winston has played much better since an awful debut against the 49ers but now finds himself on the west coast against an unbeaten Rams team that has seen their defense serve as a driving force. While Winston got his chemistry going with Mike Evans against New York, he won?t have Chris Godwin for this game and may not have tackle Demar Dotson protecting him from the likes of Aaron Donald. The Rams come into this one extremely healthy and are hoping to get Jared Goff off against one of the league?s worst secondaries.

 

[Udog]

By: Josh Inglis


KERRYON?S LUGGAGE

After the Detroit Lions released running back C.J. Anderson last week, starter Kerryon Johnson handled a career-high 20 carries. Johnson was used as a three-down back and handled the goal-line work as well. Although the yardage wasn?t impressive (36 yards), his volume was. The Lions will have to get the ball in Johnson?s hands if they want to keep pace in what will be a high-tempo game against the Kansas City Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has given up 343 total yards to running backs in the last two weeks including 75 yards receiving. Johnson?s volume and skillset make this a perfect spot to exploit his markets. His rushing total sits at 69.5 yards (-114 at Pinnacle) and his receiving total is a mere 19.5 yards (-112). We like this spot so much that we are doubling down on the Over on both his rushing and receiving totals instead of just his total yards, but if we had to choose one, we would recommend the receiving total as it could be won on a single play.

ROAD DOGS

Covers Senior Editor Jason Logan puts out an impressive weekly piece about the best underdog bets of the week. So far, he is 7-2 and it should be a weekly read for anyone looking to get free points. We don?t go all-in on trends around here, but when road dogs are hitting 22-10-1 ATS we are listening.

The Atlanta Falcons defense allowed Colts QB Jacoby Brissett to go a perfect 16-for-16 to start the game last week and are a bottom-six DVOA defense. The Falcons are also dealing with a myriad of injuries at the safety position as Keanu Neal and J.J. Wilcox are both on the I.R.

The Tennessee Titans are no offensive force, ranking 17th in DVOA offense but have also allowed just 33 points in two away games this year. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is sometimes tough to stomach, but he is a competent road QB as his road and home splits are eerily similar. We're taking the points here.


TUCK AND RUN

One of our favorite player props to play is quarterback rushing totals. With valuable totals as low as 15 yards, it?s a wager that can be won on a single play, and that?s something we can get behind. Here is a list of some plays that you can choose if you want to add another element to a game that you may be watching:

Marcus Mariota 23.5 (-115) Mariota is third in QB rushing yards and ran for 32 and 34 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. With Atlanta?s secondary troubles, look for the Titans QB to keep it in the air instead of the ground.
Daniel Jones 20.5 (-109) Danny Dimes waited until the last moments to pass his rushing total of 22.5 yards last week. This week looks even more appetizing for a QB who ran for a pair of TDs in his first start.
DeShaun Watson 27.5 (-109) Watson averaged 34 rushing yards a game in 2018. That mark has slipped a bit to 21 yards through three weeks this year. The Texans? opponents, the Carolina Panthers, didn?t concede a single QB rush attempt versus Kyler Murray last week.
Lamar Jackson 51.5 (-114) Lamar unsurprisingly leads all QBs in rushing yards averaging 57 yards a game with 166 yards in the last two weeks. Cleveland allowed 14 yards to Jared Goff last week who has 12 yards all year (not a typo).
Jacoby Brissett 14.5 (-109) With the lowest total of the group, Brissett isn?t a pull-it-down-and-run QB with rushing totals of 9, 25 and 4 over the last three weeks. The Raiders did, however, let Kirk Cousins take off four times in Week 3 for 16 yards.


PUSH YOU ALL?EN

Josh Allen is 3-0 at clearing his passing yards total to start the year. Last week was a little sweaty but cashed nonetheless. This week will really test the trend as the Buffalo Bills will welcome the league?s best passing defense in the New England Patriots.

The Pats are allowing 162.3 passing yards a game but have played quarterbacks Luke Falk and Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen. In 2018, New England?s passing defense was the 11th-worst in passing yards allowed per game at 247.7. Allen did not play the Pats at home last season but put up 217 yards on 20-of-41 passing at Gillette Stadium.

With running back Devin Singletary returning to practice after missing Week 3, it gives Allen one more weapon who is capable of busting big yards after the catch. We are looking to go 4-0, just like the Bills, and taking Josh Allen?s Over 205.5 passing yards.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OAK at IND 01:00 PM
IND -6.5
U 45.5

KC at DET 01:00 PM
KC -7.5
O 54.5

TEN at ATL 01:00 PM
TEN +3.0

NE at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF +7.0
U 41.5

CAR at HOU 01:00 PM
CAR +5.5

CLE at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -7.5
U 46.0

LAC at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +15.0
O 43.5

WAS at NYG 01:00 PM
WAS +3.5

TB at LAR 04:05 PM
TB +9.0
U 48.5

SEA at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI +5.5
U 48.0

MIN at CHI 04:25 PM
MIN +1.0

JAC at DEN 04:25 PM
JAC +2.5
U 37.0

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY NIGHT BEST BETS:

DAL at NO 08:20 PM

DAL -2.5

O 47.0