CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

NFL Today, Week 4
September 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

SCOREBOARD

Monday, Sept. 30

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 8:15 p.m. EDT. A matchup of winless AFC North rivals as the Bengals (0-3) square off against the Steelers (0-3). Pittsburgh has won eight straight in the series, and 11 of 12 - with Cincinnati's only victory during that span at Heinz Field in 2015. The Bengals are trying to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008. Meanwhile, Mason Rudolph makes his second straight start in place of the injured Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers.

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STARS

Passing

- Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, passed for 385 yards and four touchdowns and an interception in Tampa Bay's 55-40 victory over the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Rams.

- Philip Rivers, Chargers, threw for 310 yards and two scores to help Los Angeles win in Miami for the first time in 38 years, 30-10.

- Marcus Mariota, Titans, threw three first-half touchdown passes, leading Tennessee to a 24-10 victory over Atlanta.

- Baker Mayfield, Browns, passed for 342 yards and a touchdown and an interception in Cleveland's 40-25 victory at Baltimore.

- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, converted a fourth down with a 15-yard run to extend a game-winning drive and finished with a career-high 56 yards rushing while going 24 of 42 for 315 yards in Kansas City's 34-30 win at Detroit.

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Rushing

- Nick Chubb, Browns, ran for 165 yards and three scores against the league's third-ranked rushing defense to help Cleveland top Baltimore 40-25.

- Leonard Fournette, Jaguars, rushed for a career-high 225 yards on 29 carries in Jacksonville's 26-24 win at Denver.

- Kerryon Johnson, Lions, had 125 yards rushing on 26 carries in Detroit's 34-30 loss to Kansas City.

- Frank Gore, Bills, ran for 109 yards in Buffalo's 16-10 loss to New England and became the fourth player in NFL history to top 15,000 yards rushing.

- Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, had 93 yards rushing and a touchdown and led Carolina with 86 yards receiving on 10 receptions in a 16-10 win at Houston.

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Receiving

- Chris Godwin, Buccaneers, had 12 catches for 172 yards in Tampa Bay's 55-40 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

- Jarvis Landry, Browns, caught eight passes for 167 yards in Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore.

- Robert Woods, Rams, had 13 receptions for 164 yards in Los Angeles' 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay.

- A.J. Brown, Titans, caught two touchdown passes in Tennessee's 24-10 victory at Atlanta.

- Austin Hooper, Falcons, had 130 yards receiving on nine receptions in Atlanta's 24-10 loss to Tennessee.

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Special Teams

- Josh Lambo, Jaguars, kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired, sending Jacksonville past the winless Denver Broncos 26-24.

- J.C. Jackson and Matthew Slater, Patriots. Jackson blocked a punt - and also intercepted two passes on defense - and Slater recovered the ball and returned it 11 yards for a touchdown in New England's 16-10 victory at Buffalo.

- Wil Lutz, Saints, kicked four field goals in New Orleans' 12-10 win over Dallas, accounting for all of his team's scoring.

- Matt Gay, Buccaneers, booted two field goals and made all seven of his extra-point attempts in Tampa Bay's 55-40 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

- Eddy Pineiro, Bears, kicked three field goals and an extra point to account for 10 of Chicago's points in a 16-6 win over Minnesota.

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Defense

- Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett, Buccaneers. Suh returned Jared Goff's fumble 37 yards for a touchdown with 1:06 to play in Tampa Bay's 55-40 victory over the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Rams. Barrett had a sack, forced fumble and an interception.

- Bashaud Breeland, Chiefs, recovered Kerryon Johnson's fumble and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown in Kansas City's 34-30 win at Detroit.

- Jabrill Peppers, Giants, scored on a 32-yard interception return in New York's 24-3 win over Washington.

- Erik Harris, Raiders, returned a late interception 30 yards for a score to seal a 31-24 victory for Oakland at Indianapolis.

- Jadeveon Clowney, Seahawks, returned his first career interception 27 yards for a touchdown to help Seattle top Arizona 27-10.

- Desmond King, Chargers, led Los Angeles' defensive charge with 2+ sacks, a tackle for a loss and two quarterback hits in a 30-10 win at Miami.

- Vonn Bell, Saints, forced a fumble and had two recoveries to help lift New Orleans to a 12-10 victory Dallas.

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MILESTONES

Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald had five catches for 47 yards in the Cardinals' 27-10 loss to Seattle, giving him 1,326 for his career - surpassing Tony Gonzalez (1,325) for the second most in NFL history. Only Jerry Rice (1,549) has more. ... Buffalo's Frank Gore rushed for 109 yards in the Bills' 16-10 loss to New England, giving him 15,021 for his career - the fourth player with at least 15,000. He joins Pro Football Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith (18,355), Walter Payton (16,726) and Barry Sanders (15,269). ... Atlanta's Julio Jones had four catches for 52 yards in his 115th game, giving him 11,048 yards receiving - surpassing Calvin Johnson (127 games) to become the fastest player in NFL history to reach the mark.

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STREAKS & STATS

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes had his streak of throwing at least two touchdown passes stopped at 14 games after going without one in the Chiefs' 34-30 win at Detroit. He was also the first player in league history to have at least 350 yards passing and three touchdowns without an interception in three straight games before getting slowed in Detroit. He was 24 of 42 for 315 yards against the Lions. ... The Chargers' 30-10 victory was the team's first in Miami since an overtime playoff thriller in January 1982. They had lost eight straight in Miami. ... Tom Brady's 45.9 passer rating in New England's 16-10 win at Buffalo was the sixth lowest of his career and lowest since finishing with a 34 rating in a 27-20 loss to Indianapolis on Nov. 5, 2006. The Patriots had lost the previous six times Brady finished with a passer rating of 48 or lower. Brady did improve to 31-3 against Buffalo, extending the NFL career mark for most victories by a quarterback against one opponent. ... The Seahawks continued their dominance inside State Farm Stadium with another win, 27-10 at Arizona. Seattle hasn't lost in Glendale since 2012, with a 6-0-1 record during that span, including a 2016 tie. ... Tampa Bay's 55-40 win over the Los Angeles Rams was the highest-scoring game in the Buccaneers' 44-year history. ... Leonard Fournette ran for a career-high 225 yards in Jacksonville's 26-24 win over Denver, ending the Jaguars' drought of 100-yard rushes at 22 games - the second-longest streak in the NFL behind Philadelphia's 32-game drought. ... New England's Devin McCourty has an interception in four straight games to start the season.

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STARTS

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to lead a team to multiple 4-0 starts before his 25th birthday. ... New England is 4-0 for the first time in four years. ... Washington's 0-4 start is its worst since the Redskins lost their first five in 2001.

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GOFF OFF

Jared Goff passed for a career-high 517 yards and two touchdowns, but the Rams' $134 million quarterback also threw three interceptions for the second time in his career as Los Angeles fell to Tampa Bay 55-40. He completed 45 of a whopping 68 passes, and also lost a fumble that was returned 37 yards for a touchdown by Ndamukong Suh.

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DARTH RAIDER

Raiders linebacker Vontaze Burfict was ejected early in the second quarter of Oakland's 31-24 win at Indianapolis after being called for unnecessary roughness on a helmet-to-helmet collision with tight end Jack Doyle. Even before referee Scott Novak announced to the crowd what a replay review determined, Burfict was jogging into the locker room. It's not the first time Burfict has run afoul of league rules. He had 11 fines and suspensions in seven seasons with Cincinnati before joining the Raiders.

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BIG GUYS UP FRONT

Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota praised the protection provided by his offensive line after he was not sacked in the Titans' 24-10 win at Atlanta. It was a dramatic turnaround for the line after Tennessee allowed 17 sacks in its first three games - almost six per game. ''Those guys up front did a great job,'' Mariota said.

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SHAQ ATTAQ

Tampa Bay linebacker Shaquil Barrett had a sack, forced fumble and interception in the Buccaneers' 55-40 win over the Los Angeles Rams. He has nine sacks this season, tied with Mark Gastineau (1984), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (2001) and Kevin Greene (1998) for the most through a team's first four games since 1982 when the individual sack became an official statistic.

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BIG MAC

Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey had 179 yards from scrimmage yards - 93 rushing and 86 receiving - and a touchdown run in the Panthers' 16-10 win at Houston. He had 209 yards from scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 and 188 yards from scrimmage yards and a touchdown in Week 3, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Brown (1963) as the only players in league history with three games of at least 175 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown in their team's first four games of a season. McCaffrey also caught 10 passes in the win Sunday, his sixth career game with at least that many - tying Larry Centers and LaDainian Tomlinson for the most career games with at least 10 by a running back in NFL history.

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TARGET PRACTICE

Oakland tight end Darren Waller had seven catches for 53 yards in the Raiders' 31-24 win at Indianapolis. That gives him 33 receptions on the season, tying him with Antonio Gates (33 in 2007) for the most catches by a tight end through his team's first four games of a season in NFL history.

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NOT FOR LONG

The Miami Dolphins (0-4) held a lead for the first time this season, but it lasted only 3 minutes, 49 seconds as they lost 30-10 to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have been outscored 163-26 this season, which is the NFL's worst four-game point differential since at least 1940.

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SIDELINED

Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky left the game against Minnesota because of a left shoulder injury. A scrambling Trubisky was hurt on the opening possession when Danielle Hunter dragged him down and the quarterback's arm got pinned awkwardly under his body as the ball popped out. ... Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was placed in the NFL's concussion protocol after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit by Patriots defensive back Jonathan Jones in the opening minute of the fourth quarter of a 16-10 loss to New England. ... Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Melvin Ingram left the game in the first quarter at Miami with a hamstring injury. ... Detroit tight end T.J. Hockenson (concussion) was carted off the field in the third quarter against Kansas City. Chiefs defensive end Alex Okafor (hip) and linebacker Damien Wilson (concussion) left in the fourth quarter of the win at Detroit. ... Houston wide receiver Kenny Stills injured his hamstring on the last play of the first quarter against Carolina and didn't return.

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SPEAKING

''It was terrible. We've got to do better ... I don't really have any answers. I've got to go back and watch the film. I have to start like right now.'' - Houston coach Bill O'Brien after the Texans struggled on offense in a 16-10 loss to Carolina.

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''You're 0-4 and you've got two options: You can hang your head and feel sorry for yourself or you can come out and battle your (butt) off next week, which I know we will. It's unfortunate. Nobody saw this coming, starting the season like this. I sure didn't, but here we are. Reality has set in.'' - Washington coach Jay Gruden after the Redskins dropped to 0-4 with a 24-4 loss to the New York Giants.

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''If one of us did that to 12, we wouldn't have been in the game anymore,'' Buffalo safety Micah Hyde, referring to Tom Brady's number after New England's Jonathan Jones drew only a personal foul for unnecessary roughness and wasn't also ejected from the game after his helmet-to-helmet hit on Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

Monday, September 30, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers

WEEK 5

Thursday, October 3, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 6, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Houston Texans
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings New York Giants
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders
1:00 PM New York Jets Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM New England Patriots Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Denver Broncos Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers

****************************************

NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/29/2019.....8-14-0..........36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0..........50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1..........53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0...........50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1...........57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0...........75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0..........61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0........... 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............61-55-1........ 53.44%............ +2.50

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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................25 - 27............-18.00.............28 - 22 ...........+19.00..........+1.00

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

*Armadillo: Monday's six-pack*

Top six picks for Week 4 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Texans -4.5 (752)- L

5) Saints +2.5 (812)- W

4) Cowboys -2.5 (845)- L

3) Vikings +1.5 (861)- L

2) Patriots -7 (930)- L

1) Chiefs -6.5 (1,463)- L

2019 record: 13-11

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*Armadillo: Monday's Den; Wrapping up an NFL Sunday?? *

*Patriots 16, Bills 10:*
? Patriots scored only one offensive TD; they also blocked a punt for a TD.
? NE on eight drives that started 75+ yards from end zone: 0 points, 7 first downs.
? NE is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a divisional road favorite.

? Buffalo outgained New England 375-224, but was -3 in turnovers.
? Bills scored the first offensive TD vs NE this year, on Patriots? 42nd defensive drive.
? Buffalo lost for 29th time in last 31 games against New England.

*Carolina 16, Texans 10:*
? Carolina won both of backup QB Kyle Allen?s starts, after an 0-2 start with Cam Newton.
? Panthers are now 24-11 ATS in last 35 games as a road underdog.
? There were only four plays of 20+ yards in this game, 2nd least in any game this year.

? Houston?s only TD came on an 18-yard drive after they recovered a fumble.
? Texans averaged only 3.2 yards/pass attempt.
? AFC South teams are 7-3 vs spread this year outside the division.

*Browns 40, Ravens 25: *

? Heard a saying the other day: ?Each week is a new season.? Fits the Browns in Week 4.
? Nick Chubb ran the ball 20 times for 165 yards and three TD?s.
? Browns in 2nd half: 25 plays, 292 yards, 30 points.

? Cleveland gained 530 yards, averaged 8.7 yards per play.
? Game was 10-7 at halftime; Ravens turned ball over three times in 2nd half.
? Last three games, Baltimore allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt.

*Giants 24, Redskins 3:*
? Washington became 8th team to change QB?s this year when they benched Keenum after he missed a wide open WR for what would?ve been a long TD pass.
? Rookie QB Haskins was 9-17/107 passing, ran for 23 yards.
? Redskins have allowed 118 points in their 0-4 start.

? Daniel Jones is now 2-0 as an NFL starter.
? Janoris Jenkins caught two of Haskins? three INT?s.
? Both teams turned ball over four times; yardage was 389-176, Giants.

*Chargers 30, Dolphins 10:*
? Total yardage in 2nd half was 156-36, Chargers.
? Chargers converted 8-13 on third down, averaged 9.7 yards/pass attempt.
? Win breaks Bolts? 38-year, 8-game losing streak on South Beach.

? Dolphins in 2nd half: 18 plays, 45 yards, 3 first downs.
? Miami has been outscored 81-0 in second half of games.
? 2020 NFL Draft begins April 23rd in Las Vegas.

*Raiders 31, Colts 24:*
? Oakland?s first two drives: 11 plays, 135 yards, two touchdowns.
? Raiders are 4-13-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog
? Oakland scored clinching pick-6 with 2:09 left.

? Colts were outrushed 188-81
? Indy was outgained 193-15 in first quarter, outgained Oakland 129-24 in second.
? Colts threw 46 passes, ran ball only 23 times, a bad ratio for them.

*Chiefs 34, Lions 30:*
? Game was 13-13 with 9:30 left in 3rd quarter; Lions had ball on 1-yard line, but fumbled and KC ran it back 99 yards for a TD.
? Chiefs scored winning TD with 0:20 left after a 79-yard drive.
? KC has now scored 15 touchdowns on 38 drives.

? There were five lost fumbles in this game, all in the third quarter.
? Detroit lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position.
? NFC North teams are 7-2-1 ATS outside the division.

*Titans 24, Falcons 10:*
? Tennessee had a 17-yard edge in field position, which is huge.
? Titans averaged 7.7/8.4 yds/pass attempt in their wins, 3.7/5.1 in their losses.
? Home team lost seven of the eight 1:00 games this week; only the Giants won.

? Falcons ran ball 17 times for 58 yards; in four games, they?ve got 281 rushing yards.
? Ryan was 35-53/397 passing in a losing cause.
? Atlanta is now 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents

*Buccaneers 55, Rams 40:*
? Winston was very efficient: 28-41/385 yards, four TD?s.
? Bucs scored 55 points, had only three plays of 20+ yards.
? Tampa dedicated game to their GM Licht, whose father died Saturday.

? You cannot win NFL games when you turn the ball over four times.
? Goff threw for 517 yards; 164 yards to Woods, 121 to Kupp.
? Under McVay, LA is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.

*Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10:*
? Seattle wins its sixth straight visit to the desert.
? This was first game this season Seahawks led at halftime.
? Seattle scored two TD?s in 0:44 span in 1st quarter, second one a defensive TD.

? Cardinals have been outscored 68-22 in first half of games.
? Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four NFL games.
? Arizona is 0-3-1, and they?ve only played one road game.

*Bears 16, Vikings 6:*
? Vikings are 2-0 at home, scoring 28-34 points, 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points.
? Minnesota ran ball for 40 yards here, after running for 591 yards in Weeks 1-3.
? Vikings are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road dog, 7-11 in last 18 games on natural grass.

? Trubisky hurt his left shoulder; Chase Daniel was 22-30/195 passing.
? Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, started four games, made $34.3M in salary.
? Under Nagy, Chicago is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite.

*Jaguars 26, Broncos 24:*
? Fournette ran 29 times for 225 yards.
? Jaguars ran 76 plays, Denver only 54.
? In second half, Jax ran 47 plays for 315 yards, scored 20 points.

? Denver lost its two home games, both on last-second field goals.
? Broncos led 17-6 at halftime, took 24-23 lead with 1:32 left after a 75-yard drive.
? Denver still has zero takeaways, but they did get their first five sacks this year.

*Saints 12, Cowboys 10:*
? Dallas ran for only 45 yards, after running for 213-235 yards in Weeks 2-3.
? Teams who were minus-2 or worse in turnovers this week are 0-6.
? Cowboys scored 35-31-31 points in their first three games.

? New Orleans failed to score an offensive TD for second time in three weeks.
? Last time Saints won without scoring a TD was back in 1998.
? Four trips to the red zone, Saints kicked four field goals.

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

Books Win Big In Week 4 Action
September 30, 2019
By Micah Roberts

The underdogs were barking loud in Sunday?s NFL Week 4 action to the extreme extent that seven of the nine 'dogs covering the spread didn?t even need the points, winning their games outright.

?Sharps did well, and we went 2-4 in games where we took six figures, but it was still by far our biggest win of the season,? said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. ?We did really well to parlays and teasers with so many underdogs covering and winning on the day.?

When nine 'dogs cover on an NFL Sunday it?s usually going to be an awful week for the betting public and the books scoop most of the chips. Stoneback?s example of losing to large money and wiseguys and still winning big shows just how important the regular Joe is to the bottom line. He went a step further to clarify how good the week was.

?If we compare today?s results to all last season's regular season Sundays and all of this year's (Sunday) it would rank in the top-5 best results,? he said.

There?s always that big root game to parlays either flourishing early and gaining momentum throughout each result posted on the day, or crushing the parlay dead right out of the gate. Week 4 had a big one, and lots of other little exterminators helping out.

?Our biggest win of the day was the Chiefs not covering,? Stoneback said of the Chiefs (-7.5) 34-30 win with a TD in the final seconds. ?And after that our best decisions were the Browns, Chargers, and Jaguars.?

An outright Chiefs win would have immediately destroyed thousands of teasers, but there were plenty of other popular teams hovering past key numbers that would fall later. Teams like the Ravens were seven-point home favorites and the ideal number to tease, but they lost outright to the Browns, 40-25. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was offering the Browns moneyline at +300.

The crazy thing about the Browns win is that they were a popular public bet the first three weeks after being one of the biggest Super Bowl futures coming into the season. But after watching them look so pathetic on the big stage last Monday night, the public abandoned ship and bet against them. Now the books have the public right where they want them for the next few weeks second-guessing themselves. Don?t always believe what you saw last.

However, that theory may not apply to the sad Dolphins who lost 30-10 at home to the Chargers. But as bad as the Dolphins are, the number usually levels things out with a stink tax added to the spread which was about four points added to the number this week that wiseguys had to bite on. They pushed the number from -16 down to -14.5. The public wasn?t excited about laying the big number in straight bets, parlays, or teasers so didn't get Chargers money anywhere making it was one of the few games the books beat the sharps on this week.

The Dolphins are the only NFL team not cover a spread this season at 0-4 against the spread. Another ATS note is that all three teams that had been a perfect 3-0 ATS coming into Week 4 all failed to cover Sunday (Chiefs, Rams, Patriots).

The Broncos had been -3 at home against the Jaguars most of the week, a number which traditionally has been a steal with them at Mile High, but when Station Casinos moved them to -2.5 on Saturday no one came running to the bet windows with urgency. Sharps sniffed the stench out and said "no thanks" while the public was reliving old memories of Von Miller winning the Super Bowl MVP. ?Laying less than a field goal at home, playing the Jaguars who will be playing without cornerback Jalen Ramsey? Sure I?ll throw the Broncos onto my parlay,? is what a typical thought process was this week for some.

But the Broncos would somehow blow another late lead at home and lose 26-24 to drop to 0-4 making it eight straight losses dating back to last season. Vic Fangio?s first head coaching job at any level in his career isn?t going so well, but his defense did get finally its first sack of 2019.

Other games that went against the public was the Panthers 16-10 win at Houston (-5.5), the Bills (+7) 16-10 home loss to the Patriots, and the Raiders 31-24 stomping at Indianapolis (-5.5), a game that never felt as close as the final result.

?It was an incredible day,? said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis. ?Everything went right.?

One of those games the public liked on their parlays and teasers were the Rams as 9-point home favorites and proceeded to get pounded 55-40 by the Buccaneers.

However, Stoneback?s MGM books were one of the few to take it on the chin with the Bucs.

?Our worst game was the Buccaneers because we had a large six-figure wager on them,? he said.

Circa Sportsbook offered a Nevada-best moneyline on the Bucs at +390.

The week started well with the Eagles (+5) winning at Green Bay on Thursday and the hot roll was so good that hardly anything carried over into the night game. CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTomasso said: ?the game was a win-win, in the black whoever wins.?

A win-win on the late game rarely happens, but it did in Week 4. The Saints won 12-10 against the Cowboys (-2.5) as a home 'dog.

Overall, favorites went 4-9 ATS Sunday and 4-10 ATS including the Eagles' Thursday night win and six of the 14 games went over the total. I also found it interesting that 11 of the 14 games were won by the road team.

Excluding the Week 4 Monday Night game, road teams have gone 35-26-1 straight up and 40-21-1 (65%) against the spread this season.

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

Betting Recap - Week 4
September 30, 2019
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

MNF - Bengals at Steelers
September 30, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Bengals at Steelers (-3.5, 45), 8:15 pm ET, ESPN

I?ve long been of the belief that there?s no such thing as a true must-win in the NFL but admit that a division game where the loser falls to 0-4 is a pretty good argument against that. If you?re going to try and sell your team on turning things around in October after a slow start, that will be a lot easier to do for the winning coach come Tuesday than it will for whoever comes up short.

Only one team has made the playoffs after starting a season 0-4 over the past 40 years, and players are aware that a winless first month is tough to come back from.

Betting trends suggest the Steelers were overvalued at home despite starting a backup quarterback when this number came out, so Andy Dalton and a Bengals team that has won only once in 11 games has a lot of support as they look to try and hand Pittsburgh (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) only its second 0-4 start since 2013. To do so, the Bengals will have to snap an eight-game losing streak at the hands of the Steelers dating back to '16. New head coach Zac Taylor has had a tough time getting his offense on track, compromised by A.J. Green?s continued absence as he looks to return from an ankle injury sometime later this month.

Cincinnati (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS) hasn?t scored more than 20 points yet despite Taylor?s desire to speed up tempo, putting together its best game when Dalton threw for 418 yards in a 21-20 loss in Seattle. He?s since been picked off three times and struggled with consistency in losses to the 49ers and Bills. The Steelers have lost to Seattle and San Francisco too. They?ve been encouraged by Mason Rudolph?s first outings in relief of Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss the remainder of the season after suffering an elbow injury in Week 2.

Rudolph has thrown for a pair of scores and been picked off once in each of his games this week and now makes his first home start in a crucial contest. There have been a number of guys pressed into duty in relief of Roethlisberger over the past 16 years, but none will get the extended look Rudolph is expected to receive if he can stay healthy. The 2018 third-round pick has looked promising in the preseason and is really the only chance they Steelers have of salvaging this season since they parted ways with Joshua Dobbs and list unproven rookie Devlin Hodges as the backup.

Running back James Conner hasn?t been able to get on track as Pittsburgh is averaging just 64 yards per game on the ground, so the Bengals will probably prioritize keeping him in check, which should create opportunities for Rudolph to make plays while avoiding mistakes given the blitzes and varied looks he should expect to see.

Rudolph is hoping to establish more of a connection with new No. 1 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has yet to break out with 100-yard output through the first three games in attempting to replace Antonio Brown. He did haul in a grab that he took 79 yards against the 49ers last Sunday but only caught two other balls for just five yards. Getting him going should be a priority. Rudolph probably won?t have favorite target Vance McDonald available. More on that in the injury report below. He does have college teammate James Washington on board in addition to veteran Donte Moncrief, rookie Diontae Johnson, so the receiving pieces are there for Pittsburgh to test a secondary that has allowed six touchdown passes through the first three games.

Pittsburgh has surrendered seven, done in by Tom Brady and Russell Wilson for three apiece. Last week?s loss in Santa Clara featured the defense finally showing a little backbone against Jimmy Garoppolo, which included picking off twice as new arrival Minkah Fitzpatrick paid immediate dividends in upgrading the secondary. There?s hope that the team?s familiarity with Dalton?s tendencies and the upgrade of adding Fitzpatrick to try and handle elite slot receivers like Tyler Boyd will help the defense build some momentum after looking like scrimmage partners over the first two weeks.

Dalton will look to utilize the speed of Joe Ross and the elusiveness of Boyd to his advantage when not handing it to Joe Mixon, but not having Green to help stretch the field puts extra pressure on him to be perfect with a lot on his plate considering the Bengals haven?t really bothered establishing the run. The beginning of this game is going to be crucial to the total since a slow start is a very good possibility given the uncertainty involved on both ends with Rudolph making his first start and Cincinnati likely trying to establish Mixon early while keeping things simple for an offensive line that has really struggled to block. While both teams are capable of hitting home runs with deep threats, I?d recommend the first-quarter under, which is widely available at 7.5.

For a look at a player prop involving Smith-Schuster, checkout VI?s Weekly NFL Free picks .

Both teams woke up to rain all day and can expect to see afternoon thunderstorms but the forecast indicates we?ll have clear weather once kickoff rolls around. Temperatures will be in the low 70s and there will be minimal wind, so once the kid gloves come off early, we could see points that will make a run at the closing total. A second-half ?over? play could be a natural fit if both offenses have shown signs of life in the opening 30 minutes and the rain has stayed away.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Caesars' Senior Oddsmaker Alan Berg provides insights from behind the counter.

"Sharps absolutely love the Bengals and the ?over?," said Berg, whose entertaining observations can be found on Twitter (@percentberg). "Unfortunately for everyone that wants to ride with them, those numbers are long gone. The game opened with the Bengals at 4.5 and 43.5."

Cincinnati Bengals
Projected season win total: 6 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 16/1 to 50/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 100/1 to 500/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 200/1 to 1000/1

Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North (pre-Week 1/current): 13/10 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC (pre-Week 1/current): 9/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (pre-Week 1/current): 18/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Steelers came into the season with plenty of respect, so those who backed the Black-and-Gold to outperform some futures are currently holding tickets with odds that are nowhere near as lucrative as currently available. The loss of Roethlisberger and an 0-3 start have thrust the Ravens and Browns to the front of the division and makes it unlikely that Pittsburgh will be able to overcome its slow start behind the inexperienced Rudolph. If you?re a true believer, the payoff is enticing. I?d imagine that there will be a few among the stubborn Steelers? faithful willing to double down at these odds. They won?t be better next week if they take care of business and won?t be realistic if they end up 0-4 so now is the time to act if you think the Steelers have simply had a rough start.

The Bengals were expected to bring up the rear and are playing their role, struggling under a first-time head coach while missing its top receiver. There?s no reason to get in on any of their futures even if you?re of the belief they?ll pull off a Monday night upset.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Steelers were installed as a 3.5-point favorite when the Westgate?s early numbers were announced, opened the week as a 4.5-point 'chalk' throughout most shops and was bet down to 3 points on Sunday before rising up to 3.5 at many books. Look for that dance between 3 and 4 points to play out until kickoff but it?s hard to see significant action coming in.

The money line opened at Pittsburgh-200 at Caesars and has since dipped to -170. If you're in on the underdog Bengals to pick up their first victory, they've moved from +175 to +155.

INJURY CONCERNS

Carl Lawson will again be missing from the Bengals? defense due to a hamstring issue, while DE Kerry Wynn remains out with a concussion and DT Ryan Glasgow won?t get back from a thigh injury. Defensive ends Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard should play, as will corner B.W. Webb.

Cincinnati is still without Green and key offensive tackle Cordy Glenn, but will have tackle Andre Smith and guard Michael Jordan available up front.

Pittsburgh is expected to be missing McDonald due to a shoulder injury, so newly acquired TE Nick Vannett and rookie Zach Gentry will be pressed into duty. Fullback Roosevelt Nix remains out with a knee injury, which means that the running game could again struggle to get going. The Steelers will be missing linebackers Anthony Chickillo and Vince Williams but should have corner Joe Haden available. Mark Barron should play despite not practicing and LB Jayrone Elliott is questionable due to a hamstring.

RECENT MEETINGS (Steelers 11-1, 8-4 ATS last 12; UNDER 7-5)

12/30/18 Steelers 16-13 at Bengals (CIN +14, 45)
10/14/18 Steelers 28-21 at Bengals (PITT +1.5, 49.5)
12/4/17 Steelers 23-20 at Bengals (CIN +4.5, 42.5)
10/22/17 Steelers 29-14 vs. Bengals (PITT -4, 40)
12/18/16 Steelers 24-20 at Bengals (PITT -3, 45.5)
9/18/16 Steelers 24-16 at Bengals (PITT -3, 48)
1/9/16 Steelers 18-16 vs. Bengals (CIN +3, 45)
12/13/15 Steelers 33-20 at Bengals (PITT +2.5, 50)
11/1/15 Bengals 16-10 vs. Steelers (CIN +1, 48.5)
12/28/14 Steelers 27-17 at Bengals (PITT -3.5, 48)
12/7/14 Steelers 42-21 at Bengals (PITT +3, 47.5)
12/15/13 Steelers 30-20 vs. Bengals (PITT +1.5, 44.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 5 currently has the Steelers as a 3-point home underdog against the Ravens. The Bengals are listed as a 4-point favorite against the Kyler Murray-led Cardinals, who have yet to win a game this season.

Cnotes53 · Sep 30, 2019

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CIN at PIT 08:15 PM

PIT -3.5

U 45.5

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

Steelers break out of funk, stomp Bengals 27-3
September 30, 2019
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PITTSBURGH (AP) Different quarterback. Same result.

Mason Rudolph threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns to pick up his first victory while filling in for Ben Roethlisberger as the Pittsburgh Steelers easily handled the Cincinnati Bengals 27-3 on Monday night.

Rudolph completed 24 of 28 passes, most of them quick hitters that allowed the Steelers to control the clock. He connected with James Conner on a delayed screen for a 21-yard touchdown in the second quarter, then broke the game open with a 43-yard heave to rookie Diontae Johnson midway through the third as the Steelers (1-3) won their ninth straight over the Bengals (0-4).

Jaylen Samuels ran for 26 yards and a touchdown, caught eight passes for 57 yards and was even credited with three completions - in reality ''pop'' passes to teammates in motion that traveled all of three feet - while working out of the Wildcat formation as Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner opened up his playbook to help the Steelers avoid just their second 0-4 start in 51 years.

Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor became the second first-year coach to drop his first four games with the Bengals. Sam Wyche started 0-5 in 1984 but helped his team rebound to an 8-8 finish. Taylor's task of getting Cincinnati back to respectability will be far harder if he can't figure out a way to protect quarterback Andy Dalton.

Dalton spent a significant portion of the night under heavy duress. The Steelers sacked him eight times, picked him off once and forced a second-quarter fumble that halted a second-quarter drive in Pittsburgh territory when the game was still in doubt. Dalton finished 21 of 37 for 171 yards. Tyler Boyd, elevated to the No. 1 receiver while A.J. Green recovers from ankle surgery, was held to three receptions for 33 yards on the same field where he starred in college at Pitt.

Rudolph set records at Oklahoma State by stretching the field while running Mike Gundy's ''air raid'' offense. He was uneven at best in his first career start last week in San Francisco after being thrust into the gig for the rest of the season while Roethlisberger rehabs a right elbow issue that required season-ending surgery. He was considerably sharper against Cincinnati, though he wasn't asked to do much other than find the closest open man -usually Conner or Samuels - and keep the sticks moving.

Conner and Samuels touched the ball on all five snaps of a second-quarter drive that ended with Conner taking a flip from Rudolph and knifing his way into the end zone to give the Steelers a 7-3 lead. They touched it four times on an eight-play drive to start the third quarter, the final snap turning into a 2-yard touchdown run by Samuels after he lined up in the shotgun.

Two Dalton incompletions sandwiched around a sack forced Cincinnati to punt. Kevin Huber's shank set Pittsburgh up at the Cincinnati 43 and on second down Rudolph finally went deep, lofting the ball to a wide-open Johnson, who caught it at the Cincinnati 5 and walked into the end zone for his second touchdown in two weeks to give the Steelers a 24-3 lead.

INJURIES

Bengals: WR John Ross III left in the third quarter with a right-shoulder injury. ... LT Cordy Glenn missed his fourth straight game while recovering from a concussion and Cincinnati's protection problems continued. The Bengals have now surrendered 19 sacks through four games.

Steelers: TE Vance McDonald sat out with a right shoulder injury. Nick Vannett, acquired in a trade with Seattle last week, started and caught two passes for 28 yards. ... DE Cam Heyward dealt with a thigh injury that left him limping off the field at times, though he still managed his first sack of the season.

UP NEXT

Bengals: Host Arizona next Sunday. The Cardinals won the last meeting, 34-31, in 2015.

Steelers: Welcome AFC North rival Baltimore to Pittsburgh on Sunday. The teams split the season series last year, both winning at home.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

WEEK 5

Thursday, October 3, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 6, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons Houston Texans
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings New York Giants
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Oakland Raiders
1:00 PM New York Jets Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM New England Patriots Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Denver Broncos Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys
8:20 PM Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, October 7, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers

********************************

NFL SEPT. OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/30/2019.......2-0-0..........100.00%.............+10.00
09/29/2019.....8-14-0............36.36%..............-37.00
09/26/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/23/2019.......1-1-0............50.00%...............-0.50
09/22/2019....14-12-1............53.85%.............+4.00
09/19/2019.......0-2-0..............0.00%.............-11.00
09/16/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%..............-0.50
09/15/2019....15-11-1.............57.69%............+14.50
09/12/2019.......1-1-0.............50.00%............-0.50
09/09/2019.......3-1-0.............75.00%.............+9.50
09/08/2019.....16-10-0............61.54%............+25.00
09/05/2019..... 1-1-0............. 50.00%............ -0.50

Totals..............63-55-1.......... 53.38%............ +12.50

*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

09/30/2019.............1 - 0...........+5.00................1 - 0.............+5.00.............+10.00
09/29/2019.............5 - 8...........-19.00...............3 - 6..............-18.00............-37.00
09/26/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/23/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................1 - 0..............+5.00.............-0.50
09/22/2019.............6 - 5............+8.00...............4 - 7..............-18.50............-10.50
09/19/2019.............0 - 1............-5.50................0 - 1..............-5.50..............-11.00
09/16/2019.............0 - 0........... +0.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00.............+5.00
09/15/2019.............6 - 4............+8.00...............7 - 4..............+13.00...........+21.00
09/12/2019.............1 - 0............+5.00...............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
09/09/2019.............1 - 1.............-0.50...............2 - 0..............+10.00............+9.50
09/08/2019.............6 - 5............+2.50...............8 - 3..............+23.50...........+26.00
09/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.50...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............-0.50

Totals..................26 - 27............-13.00.............29 - 22 ...........+24.00............+11.00

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

Tuesday?s 6-pack

Payrolls for the 10 playoff teams in baseball:

New York $203,897,446
Washington $197,203,691
LA Dodgers $196,279,677
St Louis $162,620,267
Houston $158,053,000
Milwaukee $122,530,400
Minnesota $119,651,933
Atlanta $115,247,089
A?s $92,178,833
Tampa Bay $60,084,133

Quote of the Day
?You know how I feel about Thursday night games ? I feel like they are the dumbest thing ever.?
Todd Gurley

Tuesday?s quiz
Where did Jets? QB Sam Darnold play his college football?

Monday?s quiz
Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies in their one World Series appearance.

Sunday?s quiz
Dan Marino threw 72 TD passes against the Jets, the most career TD passes by any QB against any one team.

*************************

Tuesday?s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but??

13) Three years ago, the Cubs won the World Series for the first time in 108 years; Sunday, they fired manager Joe Maddon, who led them to that title.

When he was in Boston, Cubs GM Theo Epstein fired manager Terry Francona after the 2011 season; Francona won two World Series in eight years with the Red Sox, Boston?s first World Series titles in 86 years.

Not a lot of loyalty in either case there.

Maddon is 65 years old and made $6M this year; his successor will be younger and a lot cheaper.

12) The analytics crowd in baseball doesn?t value the field manager as much as they should; teams live/travel together for 7+ months. Having the right manager makes all the difference.

If you read this site, you know I love numbers, but those guys aren?t playing fantasy baseball, managers have to deal with fragile egos and huge egos and convince guys to accept what is best for the team- they have to have real life people skills. You think major league players like to be platooned constantly?

My point is this; maybe it isn?t Joe Maddon?s fault the Cubs faded down the stretch; maybe the roster Theo Epstein gave him just wasn?t good enough.

11) Angels fired manager Brad Ausmus after only one season, a year where one of their starting pitchers was found dead in his hotel room on a road trip; not exactly an ideal scenario.

Popular wisdom is that the Angels will go after former Angel coach Maddon to be their next manager.

10) Pirates fired manager Clint Hurdle, who was 735-720 in nine years managing the Pirates, with three playoff appearances. From 2013-15, Pirates were 280-206, and made the playoffs all three years. He also led the Rockies to a World Series; pretty strong resume.

9) Cleveland Indians won 93 games this year, the most by any non-playoff team since 2000, when the Mets went 94-68 but missed the playoffs by a game.

8) Pete Alonso hit 53 homers for the Mets this year; 31 of them came with the bases empty.

7) Friday night against the Dodgers, San Francisco became the first team since the 1950 Cardinals to score 2 or less runs in a game, while stranding 17+ runners on base.

6) Monthly sports betting handle:
May: Nevada $317.3M, New Jersey $318.9M
June: Nevada $322.5M, New Jersey $317.3M
July: Nevada $235M, New Jersey $251M
August: Nevada $287.7M, New Jersey $293.5M (Pennsylvania $109M)

5) Early in his career, Dodger SS Corey Seager irritated LA officials with the number of swings he took before, during and after games; they thought he overdid it. Seager was obsessed with perfecting his swing; when he had to miss 2018 with elbow/hip injuries, he became more coachable this year and had a solid 2019, hitting .272 with 84 RBI.

4) 10 years ago, the under-18 U.S. national baseball team had Tony Wolters, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado on it, as well as pitchers Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray and Jameson Taillon. Pretty good team; half of the 20 players made the major leagues.

3) Rutgers fired football coach Chris Ash before baseball season ended, which is unusual. Not a lot of college football coaches get the boot before Columbus Day.

2) Steelers 27, Bengals 3:
? This was a bad football game; the Bengals? offensive line was terrible.
? Andy Dalton was sacked eight times; he averaged 2.3 yards/pass attempt.
? Two of Pittsburgh?s three TD?s were on drives of less than 50 yards.

1) I know he is just an actor and he isn?t the characters he portrays, but I would still be queasy if Robert DeNiro was mad at me.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

Hot & Not Report - Week 5
September 30, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Week of September 30th

There were some interesting results from the two games covered in last week's piece, as the Chiefs/Lions game was the first to buck that 'under' trend of 2019 with a non-conference home underdog. Even still, that game needed a TD late in the contest by Detroit to sail 'over' the number (before KC scored again).

But it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-40 wild win out at the Los Angeles Rams that was one that shocked many, but not if you caught the ?Who's Not? part last week.

That topic touched on just how bad home favorites have been early in the year prior to a road game on TNF, and the Rams SU and ATS loss pushed home favorites in that pre-TNF road role to 2-10 ATS and 2-10 SU during the first five weeks of the year over the past three seasons. I discussed how there had been some big upset winners in there before, and as a 9-10 point underdog on Sunday, Tampa Bay added themselves to that list of big paydays for those that were ballsy enough to ride that trend.

No rest for the wicked though, as it's on to Week 5's potential spots. And while I did mention that I wasn't intentionally picking on L.A. Rams fans, just that their team kept finding themselves in these situational angles, Rams fans will find their team involved in this week's piece as well.

Staying away from Rams angles is going to have to wait at least another week!

Who's Hot

Playing on 'Unders' after a team scores 40 or more points
1-8 Over/Under since Week 15 of 2018
5-12 O/U since start of 2018 season when it's divisional rivals squaring off
In 2019 alone, this trend is 1-4 O/U overall, as we actually had nobody live in it this past Sunday. Interestingly enough too, is the lone 'over' (New England/New York Jets in Week 3) came after a team (New England) put up their 40+ points and didn't cash an 'over' ticket in the process. That came in their 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2, as that's a rare scenario in of itself.

But generally speaking, getting one side to put up 40 points typically cashes an 'over' ticket along with it, and we've got three different teams fitting this role for Week 5.

I'll begin with the Rams and Buccaneers, who each put up 40 or more points in that wild Sunday afternoon game yesterday. They are somewhat grouped together this week as well, as they are both out on the road, and both squaring off against division foes. Remember, since the start of last year, divisional games that fit this 40+ scenario have hit the 'under' at a 70% clip.

The Rams have that short week ahead of them as we already know, travelling north to Seattle for a big game with the Seahawks. A total of 49 is no slouch of a number for guys on a short week, and considering how many yards quarterback Jared Goff threw for on Sunday (517), and how many points the Rams scored (40) and allowed (55), it's easy to assume there will be plenty of love for the high side of this total as Thursday draws near.

Chances are we could see this number even climb a bit, but it won't be because of support from me if that's the case.

Goff's big day statistically was great, but first and foremost, LA's defense has to tighten things up to avoid putting Goff and the offense in that spot needing so many points. Granted, the three interceptions that Goff threw didn't help things, but getting the defense to turn around things on a short week isn't unfeasible. Can't imagine they took Tampa Bay too seriously given how that game played out, and that just won't be the case with a road divisional game against Seattle this week.

NFL prime time games have still been 'under' machines in 2019 despite a 2-1 O/U record the last three, and with how sloppy these short-week, TNF games can be, I do think going low on this total makes a lot of sense in general. Add in this great 'under' role, and I hope this number climbs.

Tampa Bay's the other team visiting a divisional rival in Week 5, as they take a trip to the Big Easy to face a New Orleans team off a big SNF win. The Saints defense completely wrapped up the Cowboys in that one, and there shouldn't be any worry about them taking Tampa lightly as a divisional foe, and after the offensive performance they put up in LA.

The Bucs total is a little lower at 47.5, and with the way the Saints are trying to win games now with Teddy Bridgewater as a ?game manager? QB and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, the 'under' generally makes sense here as well. There is more time to dig into a game like this to either confirm or pass on the low side of this total, but given the history of these 40+ point teams the following week, it's hard not to like going low.

The final team that fits this role in Week 5 of coming off a game where they scored 40+ are the Cleveland Browns. The Browns get the national spotlight treatment once again as they head to San Francisco for MNF, with the 49ers coming off a bye.

The bye week for the 49ers makes things a bit more tricky here as they've had two full weeks to prepare to attack this Browns defense, although the last three times it's been AFC vs NFC in this situational angle with one side coming off a 40+ effort, the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. That includes an 0-2 O/U record this year, with one of those games including the 49ers themselves in their 24-20 win over Pittsburgh last time out.

Who's Not

Backing teams ATS after scoring 40 or more points in their last outing
4-8 ATS (33%) since Week 14 of 2018 and 1-4 ATS (20%) in 2019
Sorry Rams fans, I know the first half of this piece could be taken as positive in terms of your defense turning things around in a few days, and they probably will. But recent history suggests that it probably doesn't turn out to be a SU victory for your team given what the point spread is (+1) and the ATS history the following week for these 40+ point scoring teams.

That being said, the ATS record might be 1-4 ATS this season the following week for these squads, but the SU record is 4-1 SU. All four of those outright winners off a 40+-point day were laying at least -6 in all of those wins though, and only the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 win over Oakland was able to bring home the ATS cash. The virtual pick'em point spread here for the Rams/Seahawks game on TNF is a different situation in that regard, so we will just have to see how it plays out.

We already know that Tampa and Cleveland are the other two teams in this spot for Week 5, as both teams are catching a little more than a FG (Tampa +4.5, Cleveland +3.5) for their respective games. Given that the situation does look tougher for Cleveland on paper as it is ? an undefeated opponent coming off a bye week and not playing a backup QB ? this history does the Browns no favors as well, so we might see another prime time stinker from Cleveland this time next week.

The last five times this scenario has applied to a non-conference game, the team coming into that contest off a 40-point effort is just 1-4 ATS, a run that includes a 0-2 ATS record this season. The 49ers themselves couldn't get it done when they hosted Pittsburgh last time out, and neither could the Ravens in Week 2 when they hosted Arizona.

So Cleveland fans, don't get too over-hyped this week after a great win in Baltimore over the weekend, because we saw the impact a completely full bandwagon for your team can do in their Week 1 blowout loss.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/3/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 196-241 ATS (-69.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 90-122 ATS (-44.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 141-190 ATS (-68.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 150-191 ATS (-60.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 70-103 ATS (-43.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 6

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) vs. OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 147-184 ATS (-55.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 4) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-148 ATS (+32.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-72 ATS (+24.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 118-155 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) - 10/6/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 7

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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 0) - 10/7/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 3

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 13 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 18 games when playing LA Rams
Seattle is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Seattle is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams's last 18 games when playing Seattle
LA Rams is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Seattle
LA Rams is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Sunday, October 6

Houston Texans
Houston is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
New Orleans is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Carolina

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Giants is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Giants's last 22 games at home
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Chicago is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 13 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 13 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 13 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games at home
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Green Bay's last 21 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Green Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 16 games at home
Kansas City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

Monday, October 7

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

NFL Week 5 odds: Book braces for public to come back strong on Chiefs at home vs Colts
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes guided Kansas City to a last-minute TD and win at Detroit on Sunday. The Chiefs, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, opened as 9.5-point home favorites for their Week 5 tilt against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season has some intriguing matchups that are already seeing some line movement. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Kansas City is among just three remaining unbeaten teams, though just barely after Week 4. The Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) overcame an early 10-0 deficit at Detroit, then got a last-minute touchdown to win a shootout 34-30 as 7.5-point favorites Sunday.

Indianapolis looked surprisingly good the first three weeks of the season, following the stunning retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck. But in Week 4, the Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) trailed Oakland 14-0 early and never got closer than a touchdown in a 31-24 home loss as 5.5-point faves.

This matchup is in prime time Sunday night, and The SuperBook is bracing for public play on K.C.

?Kansas City was lucky to escape on the road in Detroit,? Murray said. ?The Chiefs come home to face a Colts team off a very bad performance of their own in a home loss to the Raiders. Every parlay and teaser will close with K.C. next Sunday night.?

The Chiefs ticked up to -10 in the hour after this line went up, then shortly thereafter went back to -9.5.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay was in a good spot to remain unbeaten in Week 4, playing at home in the Thursday nighter. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn?t outlast Philadelphia, losing 34-27 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Dallas was also in prime time and aiming to remain perfect in Week 4, playing under the Sunday night spotlight at New Orleans. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn?t find points, though, losing a defensive slog 12-10 laying 2.5 points.

?This game is off the board as the Cowboys play the Saints,? Murray said early Sunday evening, noting that prior to the Cowboys-Saints kickoff, The SuperBook posted Dallas -4.5 against Green Bay. ?Both teams were probably a little overvalued off their 3-0 starts. We will learn a lot about the Packers in this game.?

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Baltimore could have gained an early foothold on the AFC North, going off as 7.5-point home chalk against Cleveland on Sunday. However, the Ravens (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) gave up 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury in Week 2 and is still seeking its first victory of the season. The Steelers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) still have Week 4 work to do, as they host Cincinnati on Monday night. In Week 3 behind backup Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh nearly pulled a road upset of San Francisco, falling 24-20 as 6-point pups.

?If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on ?Monday Night Football,? the line will go up and the public will come in very hard on the Ravens here,? Murray said. ?Either way, we will need the ?dog pretty big.?

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (PK)

Defending NFC champion Los Angeles fell from the unbeaten ranks in stunning fashion, giving up a 50-plus burger as nearly double-digit Week 4 chalk. The Rams (3-1 SU and ATS) trailed Tampa Bay 21-0 midway through the second quarter, rallied within 45-40 midway through the fourth, but ultimately lost 55-40 giving 9 points at home.

Meanwhile, Seattle bounced back from a Week 3 upset home loss to a New Orleans team minus Drew Brees. The Seahawks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to Arizona as 5.5-point favorites Sunday and exited with an easy 27-10 victory.

Both teams operate on a short week for this Thursday night NFC West clash.

?A nightmare game for the Rams? defense against Tampa,? Murray said. ?The public will likely look to back the Rams anyway. Our look-ahead number closed Rams -2.5.?

The game then reopened Sunday afternoon as a pick ?em and moved to Rams -1 an hour later. Shortly thereafter, the line went back to pick.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Rams (3-1) @ Seattle (3-1)? Rams turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games; they got shredded for 55 points in home loss to Bucs LW- Tampa Bay converted 8-13 3rd down plays. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss, 3-1 as road underdogs, 4-2 in NFC West road games. Seahawks are off to 3-1 start, despite trailing three of the four games at halftime; their foes converted only 9 of last 31 third down plays. Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite; their last three games were all against rookie or backup QB?s. Rams won last three series games, scoring 42-33-36 points; they won three of last four visits to Seattle.

Ravens (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)? Baltimore allowed 1,033 yards, 73 points in losing its last two games; in their last three games, Ravens allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt- they?re 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has run ball for 205.8 ypg; three of their four games went over. Pittsburgh had little resistance in its win Monday night; Steelers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Pitt still hasn?t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they?ve converted only 12-44 third down plays, but haven?t allowed a first half TD in their last two games. Steelers won four of last five series games, but Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits to Steel City.

Bears (3-1) vs Raiders (2-2) (@ London)? Oakland traded LB Kahlil Mack to the Bears last summer; this is their first meeting since. Bears? backup QB Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, but this will be only his 5th NFL start (2-2)- he started two games LY. Chicago won its last three games, outscoring foes 44-6 in first half; they?re +7 in turnovers in those games. Under is 3-1 in Chicago games. Oakland split its first four games, scoring 10-14 in losses, 24-31 in wins- Raiders allowed 28-34-24 points in last three games. This is Oakland?s third straight road game, albeit a neutral site; Raiders are 9-17-2 ATS in last 28 games as a dog. Teams split 14 meetings overall.

Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Bengals (0-4)? How are the Bengals favored over anyone located south of Saskatchewan? Cincy is 0-4, scoring six TD?s on 45 drives, with 16 sacks allowed, 19 3/outs, and a -5 turnover ratio- they were outscored 48-13 in first half of their last three games. Brngals are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Cardinals lost their last three games, and were down 24-6 in the game they tied; Redbirds are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four games. Arizona won three of last four series games, but lost six of seven visits here, wth last one in ?11- their last win in Cincy was in ?07.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)? Battle of backup QB?s here. Jaguars split their two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points- they?re 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Jax ran ball for 269 yards in Denver LW; they?ve converted only 9 of last 38 third down plays, but are 3-0 ATS in Minshew?s starts. Carolina is 2-0 SU with Allen at QB; they?re 8-11 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite. Road team won all four Carolina games; they?ve turned ball over eight times in four games (-1). Teams split six meetings, with home side 4-2 in those games; Jaguars lost two of three visits here, with all three games decided by six or fewer points.

Vikings (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)? Vikings are 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points, turning ball over six times (-4); they ran ball for 193.7 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, but were held to 40 YR in Chicago LW. Minnesota is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite. Giants are 2-0 with rookie QB Jones starting, scoring 32-24 points; they covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Big Blue was 5-23 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2; they?re 14-26 in Jones? two starts. Minnesota won six of last eight series games, last five of which were decided by 16+ points. Vikings won four of last six visits here; last one was in 2013.

Patriots (4-0) @ Redskins (0-4)? Over last 20 years. favorites are 5-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team. Patriots won last three series games by 45-7-17 points; they won 34-27 in last visit here, back in 2011. New England has been awesome so far, allowing one TD on 48 drives; three of their four wins are by 16+ points. NE has eight takeaways in two road wins (+6); they?re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Redskins are overmatched here; their QB?s are awful- Skins scored 3 points LW vs a Giant defense that allowed 31.3 ppg in Weeks 1-3. Washington was outscored 45-6 in first half of its last two games.

Jets (0-3) @ Eagles (2-2)? Darnold (mono) is a ??? here; his conditioning can?t be good. Jets lost eight of last ten post-bye games (3-7 ATS); they started three different QB?s in their losses this year- Falk likely gets his 2nd NFL start here. Jets are 7-12-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road dog, 1-0 this year. Eagles split their first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; they?re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Three of their four games went over the total. Eagles have converted 32-57 third down plays this year. Philly won last 10 series games by average score of 27-17; Jets lost last five trips here, with last one in 2011.

Buccaneers (2-2) @ Saints (3-1)? Tampa Bay had 28 points at halftime in each of its last two games; they gained 499-464 TY the last two weeks, averaging 8.7 yards/pass attempt in both games, but Bucs have also allowed 31+ points in three games this year. TB was outscored 75-50 in 2nd half of games so far, but Arians is helping Winston thrive at QB. Saints are 2-0 in Bridgewater?s starts, they held Dallas to 45 YR LW after Cowboys had run for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3. Since 2014, NO is 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last eight series games, splitting last four games in each stadium.

Falcons (1-3) @ Texans (2-2)? Atlanta lost its first two road tilts by 16-3 points; they?re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents. Falcons are averaging only 70.3 rushing yards/game; they were outscored 44-10 in first half of last two games. Houston split its first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; road team covered all four of their games- they scored only two TD?s on 20 drives in their home games. Texans are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as home favorites. Home side won last four Falcon-Texan games, with Atlanta losing 17-13/17-10 in last two visits here.

Bills (3-1) @ Titans (2-2)? Tennessee gets star LT Lewan back from suspension here, which is a big help for their OL; Titans converted 14-30 3rd down plays in last two games, after being 3-20 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2. Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-3 as a home favorite. Buffalo lost tough 16-10 home game to New England LW; QB Allen is banged up, Barkley (2-5 as NFL starter) gets nod if Allen can?t go. Under McDermott, Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 6-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points. Last three series games were decided by one point each, with Buffalo winning last two; Bills lost four of last five visits to Nashville.

Broncos (0-4) @ Chargers (2-2)? Denver lost its first four games, losing road games by 8-11 points; they lost their two home games on last-second FG?s. Broncos blew 17-6 halftime lead LW; they?re 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. Banged-up Chargers led all four games at halftime; they?re 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year. Bolts are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 AFC West home games. Melvin Gordon figures to get some action at RB for Chargers, after he ended his holdout. Teams split last six series games; Denver scored 13-0-9 points in last three series losses. Teams split last four series games in SD/Carson.

Packers (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)? Green Bay won seven of last eight series games (2-0 in playoff games), winning last three visits here, 37-36/34-31/35-31. Packers split their first four games, winning only road game 10-3 (+3) in Chicago; they?ve scored 65 first half points, only 20 second half points this year. GB is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 3-6-1 in last ten games on artificial turf. Cowboys scored 35-31 points in winning their two home games; they ran ball for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, were held to 45 in Superdome LW. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.

Colts (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0)? Chiefs whacked Colts 31-13 in playoffs LY; Indy?s first TD scored on a blocked punt. KC won last two series games 30-14/31-13 after losing six of the previous seven meetings- Colts won seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Indy split its first four games, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points; under Reich, Indy is 5-2 ATS as a road dog- three of their four games went over. Chiefs scored 15 TD?s on 38 drives in their 4-0 start; in their last two games, only 18 of their 131 plays came on third down. Mahomes has averaged 7.5+ yards/pass attempt in all four games, but he was 0-11 LW on passes that went 30+ yards downfield.

Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)? Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

LA Rams @ Seattle

Game 301-302
October 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
132.800
Seattle
131.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2); Under

Sunday, October 6

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Game 455-456
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
121.000
Cincinnati
122.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 4 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+4 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Houston

Game 467-468
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
130.329
Houston
132.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 465-466
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
134.839
New Orleans
135.097
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
Even
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ NY Giants

Game 459-460
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
134.320
NY Giants
127.442
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Carolina

Game 457-458
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.588
Carolina
136.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Chicago @ Oakland

Game 453-454
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
134.054
Oakland
131.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+5); Over

New England @ Washington

Game 461-462
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
144.763
Washington
119.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 25 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-15 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 469-470
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.290
Tennessee
136.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
119.201
Philadelphia
136.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 17
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-13 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 451-452
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
131.724
Pittsburgh
134.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
43
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4); Under

Denver @ LA Chargers

Game 471-472
October 6, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
124.822
LA Chargers
133.249
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 6
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-6); Under

Green Bay @ Dallas

Game 473-474
October 6, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
132.199
Dallas
133.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Game 475-476
October 6, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.496
Kansas City
139.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 11
57
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Over

Monday, October 7

Cleveland @ San Francisco

Game 477-478
October 7, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
132.716
San Francisco
138.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 5 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-3 1/2); Over

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 5 odds: Wait to take on total in Bears-Raiders in London
Jason Logan

There?s likely going to be an overreaction to the Bears' QB situation, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there?s not much separating him from Daniel right now.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL board each week.

With four weeks of football data under their belts, oddsmakers will begin tightening said belts with their weekly numbers. Value will be harder to sniff out, so timing your wagers to optimize your opinion is even more important.

Let?s punch these Bet Now/Bet Later games into our Covers Live App line move alerts in Week 5:

SPREAD TO BET NOW: L.A. RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2, 49)

Wild line movement has been the name of the game when capping this NFC West war for Thursday night. But, that?s what a 55-40 loss to the Bucs will do to your public appeal. The Rams opened as big as 1.5-point favorites for this primetime game but one-sided money on the Seahawks has flipped this spread over the fence and has Seattle giving two points at home.

If you?re not rattled by the WTF result against Tampa Bay, the time to bet Los Angeles is now. Oddsmakers expect the public to pile on the Rams come Thursday, which means this game could finish up closer to the pick?em come kickoff.

I understand where the early attraction is for Seattle: a primetime home game in the rain (expected) in front of the 12th Man against a QB in Jared Goff who struggles away from home. But, can we trust the Seahawks results through four weeks? They?ve squeaked out a win at home over Cincinnati, barely beat Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger, lost to Teddy B and the Saints, and looked better than they were versus Arizona last Sunday. Those are some terrible defenses. But, then again, L.A. just gave up a double nickel to the Buccos.

If you?re riding the Rams, get ?em while their hot? errr? cold.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5, 41)

In a battle of young backups making a name of themselves, second-year passer Kyle Allen and rookie QB Gardner Minshew headline this Week 5 non-conference clash in Carolina. The Panthers, who are 2-0 SU and ATS since Allen took over for the injured Cam Newton, are giving 3.5 points to the Jags but it looks like this spread could come down later in the week.

Plenty of books are discounting Carolina -3.5 with the juice, trying to attract some money on the home favorite and stay on this half-point hook. Jacksonville is also off back-to-back wins and covers and has cashed in for backers in three straight outings with Minshew making throws. This is, however, the Jaguars' second road game in a row and third in four weeks after a grueling climb up the mountain at Denver in Week 4.

The Panthers offense is simple enough with Allen at the wheel: two scoops of RB Christian McCaffery and if he?s not available to run or catch, look to TE Greg Olsen. That pair has combined for 25 targets on Allen?s 60 total pass attempts in the last two contests. Jacksonville has some tape on Allen after these starts but the status of CB Jalen Ramsey is up in the air, and he was missed dearly in the win at Denver Sunday.

If you like this home side, wait and see if you can get Carolina without that pesky half-point hook.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 48.5 ATLANTA-HOUSTON

At first glance, this game should produce about 1,000 points given all the offensive firepower on the field. But that?s just not the case for these squads this season. The Falcons and Texans are a combined 2-6 Over/Under so far in 2019 and this total, which opened at 49 points, is starting to shrink with money on the Under.

Houston has had trouble putting up big numbers at home this season, totaling only 23 points in its two stands inside NRG Stadium, including a quiet day from Deshaun Watson in Week 4?s loss to Carolina (he can explain the whole thing). The Texans turned to the running game in those matchups, picking up 136 yards on 22 carries last weekend and 126 yards on 30 carries versus Jacksonville in Week 2.

Atlanta has been a bust on offense ? no matter the venue ? averaging only 17.5 points to start the season. Matt Ryan has thrown six interceptions already (he had just seven total in 2018) and is under duress more than he?d like to be. The Falcons have fallen short of the betting total as visitors plenty of times in the past, going 14-20-2 O/U on the road since 2015 (59% Unders).

This number dipped as low as 48 at some books before action bought back the Over and moved the total to 49. I don?t see it hitting 50, so if you like the Under buy as big as you can now.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 41 CHICAGO VS. OAKLAND

The total for the first London, England game of the 2019 schedule is promising less-than-entertaining football. Oddsmakers have this number at 41 points with the Bears and Raiders doing battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, and it's dropped as low as 40 at some markets.

Chicago will be without starting QB Mitch Trubisky, who left Week 4 with a dislocated shoulder, and forces the Bears to go with No. 2 Chase Daniel. There?s likely going to be an overreaction to this swap from public money, however, with the way Trubisky was playing (588 total yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 81 QBR) there?s not much separating him from Daniel right now.

The Raiders have a new weapon in RB Josh Jacobs, who sparked the Oakland attack in Sunday?s win at Indianapolis. He had 79 yards rushing and another 29 yards on two catches, and that will help keep the Chicago pass rush guessing in London. One other note about this international affair: the game is being played on artificial turf, and not the soft soccer pitches we?ve seen in past UK games. That will help with speed and surface integrity Sunday.

With Trubisky out and people poo-pooing the Silver and Black, wait and see if this total goes sub-40. Then, if you like the Over, ?Benny Hill? it to your bookie to bet it.

Cnotes53 · Oct 1, 2019

Tech Trends - Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 3

L.A. RAMS at SEATTLE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Rams on 5-1 SU and spread run in reg season since late 2018. Russell Wilson 6-0 as home dog since 2012, however. Rams have won SU last three in series but Hawks have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Seattle on 9-4 ?over? reg season run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

Sunday, Oct. 6

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered last five in series, Raves 3-0-1 vs. line last four at Heinz Field. If getting points note Steel has covered last six as dog.
Ravens, based on series trends.

CHICAGO vs. OAKLAND at Tottenham Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 3-13-1 last 16 as dog away from Coliseum. Oakland also ?under? 5-2-1 last eight since late 2018. Bears on 10-1 ?under? run. Chicago also 5-2 vs. spread last seven away from home.
?Under? and Bears, based on ?totals? and team trends.

ARIZONA at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards 6-3-1 last ten as road dog since late 2017 (1-0 TY). Cincy 4-8 last 12 as home chalk. Bengals on 6-1-2 ?under? run after Monday.
Cards and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Minshew now 3-0 vs. line as starter for Jags. Panthers 1-4 vs. spread last five at home, no covers last four as chalk. Jags on 6-3 ?under? run.
Jags and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

MINNESOTA at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-5 vs. spread last six on road. Also ?under? 16-6-1 last 23 since late 2017. G-Men 1-6 last seven as MetLife dog but those are Eli numbers; NY 2-0 SU and vs. spread with D Jones in lineup.
Slight to Giants and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Belichick on 6-2 spread run since late 2018, also 11-2 ?under? last 12 in reg season. Jay Gruden 3-7 vs. line since late 2018, and ?over? 3-1 in 2019.
Patriots and "under,", based on team trends.

NY JETS at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 1-8 vs. spread last nine at Linc. Philly also ?over? 6-2 last 8 since late 2018. Jets on 3-9-1 skid vs. line since mid 2018.
Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs on 7-3 ?under? run since late 2018. Teams have split last 8 vs. spread. Saints only one cover last six at Superdome.
Slight to ?under? and Bucs, based on ?totals? and team trends.

ATLANTA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs now on 4-14 reg season spread run on road since 2017. Texans on 9-4-1 spread run reg season since mid 2018 though have failed to cover in first 2 at home this term. Houston also ?under? last five at NRG.
Texans and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 4-0-1 vs. spread last five on road. Buff interestingly 5-1 vs. spread last six after facing Pats. Bills also on 6-1 ?under? run since late 2018 as well. Titans 4-7 last 11 vs. line since mid 2018, 1-3 last four as home chalk.
Bills and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

DENVER at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Denver on 5-15 spread skid as visitor since late 2016. Broncos also on 11-2 ?under? run. Last three ?under? in series. Bolts just 2-8 last 10 as Carson chalk since LY.
?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

GREEN BAY at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dak has won and covered 4 of last 5 reg season games, 9-2-1 last 12 vs. line in reg season. Pack 10-19-1 as dog since 2013 but Rodgers absent for part of that stretch.
Slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 12-2 vs. spread in first five of games of seasons. Indy 3-1 vs. line TY and 6-2 last 8 reg season. Chiefs on 8-2 ?over? run in reg season. Playoff rematch!
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

Monday, Oct. 7

CLEVELAND at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Brownies 8-3 vs. spread last 11 on road, 10-5 as dog since last season. Niners 1-5 as chalk since LY, 3-6 last 9 at Levi?s.
Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

Cnotes53 · Oct 2, 2019

Wednesday?s 6-pack

Interesting college football spreads this weekend:

? Oregon State @ UCLA (-5.5)

? Iowa @ Michigan (-3.5)

? Northwestern @ Nebraska (-3.5)

? Air Force (-3) @ Navy

? TCU @ Iowa State (-3.5)

? Auburn (-3) @ Florida

Quote of the Day
?Falling down is part of life; getting back up is living.?
Anonymous

Wednesday?s quiz
Who won/lost the last time the World Series was a sweep?

Tuesday?s quiz
Sam Darnold played his college football at USC.

Monday?s quiz
Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies in their one World Series appearance.

****************************

Wednesday?s Den: NFL stats after four weeks??

13) Best red zone offenses:
Seattle 6.25 ppp, Cowboys 6.08, Ravens 6.07

Worst red zone offenses:
Dolphins 2.67, Bengals 3.00, Raiders 3.62

12) Best offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Ravens 3.76 ppp, Chiefs 3.19, Chargers 2.88

Worst offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.37, Dolphins 0.52, Bucs 0.88

11) Best red zone defenses:
Patriots 2.50, 49ers 2.88, Steelers 3.57, Chiefs 3.76

Worst red zone defenses:
Browns 6.60, Dolphins 6.16, Colts 5.67, Saints 5.57

10) Best defenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
49ers 0.38, Patriots 0.39, Bills 0.77, Bears 0.84

Worst defenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 3.05, Cardinals 3.03, Chiefs 2.67, Falcons 2.56

9) QB?s with most passing yards:
Mahomes KC 1,510, Ryan Atl 1,325, Goff LAR/Rivers LAC 1,254

8) QB?s with most touchdown passes:
10? Brissett-Jackson-Mahomes
9? Prescott-Stafford-Wentz-Winston
8? Ryan-Wilson

7) RB?s with most rushing yards:
McCaffrey 411, Cook 410, Fournette 404, Chubb 398

6) Players with most receiving yards:
KAllen 452, Kupp 388, Godwin 386, Adams 378

6) Teams that scored the most points:
135? Chiefs/Ravens
123? Buccaneers
122? Patriots
117? Rams

5) Offenses with most plays of 20+ yards:
Chiefs 27, Chargers/Ravens 23, Lions 22, Falcons 21

4) Offenses that have gained most yards/game:
Ravens 482.5, Chiefs 474.8, Cowboys 425.2, 49ers 421.0

3) Defenses that allowed fewest yards/game:
Patriots 243.0, Bills 280.8, 49ers 283.3, Panthers 287.5

2) Best net punting average:
Redskins 48.5, Giants 46.8, Cardinals/Saints/Eagles 44.8.

1) Best turnover ratios:
+6? Bears/Patriots
+5? Titans
+4? Packers/Jets/Steelers

Worst turnover ratios:
-7? Dolphins
-5? Falcons/Giants/Broncos/Bengals
-3? Panthers/Rams/Redskins

CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

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