CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !
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Books hammer Bettors in Week 10
November 11, 2019
By Micah Roberts
Nevada sportsbooks had a fantastic Sunday of Week 10 NFL action with some books having their best day of the season with underdogs going 7-3-1 against the spread and six 'dogs captured outright victories.
?It was our biggest day of the year,? said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis. ?Our best games were the Titans and Falcons winning.?
Those were two of the three biggest dogs of the day to win outright and Tennessee's 35-32 win against the Chiefs (-5.5) happened to be the biggest win of the day for most sportsbooks. The 1-7 Falcons gave the Saints (-13.5) their second loss of the season in a 26-9 upset at New Orleans that paid +600 on the money-line.
?We basically won every game but one,? said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. ?It was our best Sunday so far this season. The NFL continues to be difficult for players. The Falcons and Titans were our two biggest winners.?
The other big underdog on the day was the Dolphins (+12) winning 16-12 at Indianapolis which paid +450 on the money-line at CG Technology books. The Colts were playing with Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of Jacoby Brissett, who was ruled 'out' with a knee injury. The Dolphins have now won two straight after starting 0-7 and have covered their last five games which coincides with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick being in the lineup.
?Believe it or not, the public was actually on the Dolphins,? said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. ?Sharp money was on the Colts which was surprising because they rarely lay double-figure spreads in the NFL, and just as rare is the public siding so united with a double-digit underdog.?
But the main story of the day was the Chiefs losing. There was a huge amount of risk built throughout last week with the public knowing QB Patrick Mahomes would be starting for Kansas City.
?It felt like nine of every 10 tickets written this morning were on the Chiefs,? Kornegay said. ?You know, like that last three-hour rush on Sunday before kickoff it seemed like it was on every ticket.?
There weren?t a lot of games the books lost with, but one of them was the Browns.
?The only game we lost on was the Browns because we took some (larger) bets on the Browns at -2.5 and then the last rush of action was on both teams at 3.?
The Browns won 19-16 causing a lot of books to get sided. But a push is what most bettors were hoping for in many instances where the popular favorites were dying with regularity.
The other game some books did poorly with was the Packers (-5) winning 24-16 against the Panthers. The spread came down to a Packers goal-line stand in the final seconds, inches away from being another great game for the house.
While the Chiefs destroyed a huge amount of parlays on the day and the Saints helped kill a bunch of teasers, the final nail in the coffin for bettors was the Steelers (+4.5) 17-12 home win against the Los Angeles Rams.
?The Steelers win made up for the afternoon loss with the Packers covering, ?said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso.
If bettors would have the foresight to bet the Titans (+220), Falcons (+600), and Steelers (+200) in a money-line parlay in Sunday?s Week 10 NFL action in Nevada, a $100 three-team parlay wager would win $6,620.
So after crushing the first 10 games on Sunday, the books found themselves with a chance to give some of the win back with the Cowboys (-3.5) at home against the Vikings. It was all Cowboys action.
?If the Vikings win or cover it?ll be a huge day for us,? Stoneback said before kickoff. ?We?ve got a 3-to-1 money disparity on the Cowboys and our ticket counts are 2-to-1 on the Cowboys.?
Of course, the Vikings would win 28-24 to complete an amazing day for the house.
I don?t know how bettors keep coming strong with cash every week after getting pummeled over and over again, but they are persistent and their big Sunday with popular favorites cashing is going to happen like it always does at least twice a year.
It?s on to Week 11, so maybe this is the week.
Hang in there, folks!
November 11, 2019
By Micah Roberts
Nevada sportsbooks had a fantastic Sunday of Week 10 NFL action with some books having their best day of the season with underdogs going 7-3-1 against the spread and six 'dogs captured outright victories.
?It was our biggest day of the year,? said Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis. ?Our best games were the Titans and Falcons winning.?
Those were two of the three biggest dogs of the day to win outright and Tennessee's 35-32 win against the Chiefs (-5.5) happened to be the biggest win of the day for most sportsbooks. The 1-7 Falcons gave the Saints (-13.5) their second loss of the season in a 26-9 upset at New Orleans that paid +600 on the money-line.
?We basically won every game but one,? said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. ?It was our best Sunday so far this season. The NFL continues to be difficult for players. The Falcons and Titans were our two biggest winners.?
The other big underdog on the day was the Dolphins (+12) winning 16-12 at Indianapolis which paid +450 on the money-line at CG Technology books. The Colts were playing with Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of Jacoby Brissett, who was ruled 'out' with a knee injury. The Dolphins have now won two straight after starting 0-7 and have covered their last five games which coincides with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick being in the lineup.
?Believe it or not, the public was actually on the Dolphins,? said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. ?Sharp money was on the Colts which was surprising because they rarely lay double-figure spreads in the NFL, and just as rare is the public siding so united with a double-digit underdog.?
But the main story of the day was the Chiefs losing. There was a huge amount of risk built throughout last week with the public knowing QB Patrick Mahomes would be starting for Kansas City.
?It felt like nine of every 10 tickets written this morning were on the Chiefs,? Kornegay said. ?You know, like that last three-hour rush on Sunday before kickoff it seemed like it was on every ticket.?
There weren?t a lot of games the books lost with, but one of them was the Browns.
?The only game we lost on was the Browns because we took some (larger) bets on the Browns at -2.5 and then the last rush of action was on both teams at 3.?
The Browns won 19-16 causing a lot of books to get sided. But a push is what most bettors were hoping for in many instances where the popular favorites were dying with regularity.
The other game some books did poorly with was the Packers (-5) winning 24-16 against the Panthers. The spread came down to a Packers goal-line stand in the final seconds, inches away from being another great game for the house.
While the Chiefs destroyed a huge amount of parlays on the day and the Saints helped kill a bunch of teasers, the final nail in the coffin for bettors was the Steelers (+4.5) 17-12 home win against the Los Angeles Rams.
?The Steelers win made up for the afternoon loss with the Packers covering, ?said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso.
If bettors would have the foresight to bet the Titans (+220), Falcons (+600), and Steelers (+200) in a money-line parlay in Sunday?s Week 10 NFL action in Nevada, a $100 three-team parlay wager would win $6,620.
So after crushing the first 10 games on Sunday, the books found themselves with a chance to give some of the win back with the Cowboys (-3.5) at home against the Vikings. It was all Cowboys action.
?If the Vikings win or cover it?ll be a huge day for us,? Stoneback said before kickoff. ?We?ve got a 3-to-1 money disparity on the Cowboys and our ticket counts are 2-to-1 on the Cowboys.?
Of course, the Vikings would win 28-24 to complete an amazing day for the house.
I don?t know how bettors keep coming strong with cash every week after getting pummeled over and over again, but they are persistent and their big Sunday with popular favorites cashing is going to happen like it always does at least twice a year.
It?s on to Week 11, so maybe this is the week.
Hang in there, folks!
Seahawks knock 49ers from unbeaten ranks with 27-24 OT win
November 11, 2019
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Jason Myers kicked a 42-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin missed a kick earlier in overtime, and the Seattle Seahawks handed the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season with a 27-24 victory on Monday night.
Myers gave Seattle (8-2) its second straight overtime win after Russell Wilson got the Seahawks into position with an 18-yard scramble on third-and-3. After being iced by a timeout, Myers delivered one week after missing two field goals and an extra point, putting Seattle right in the thick of the NFC West race with San Francisco (8-1).
The Seahawks blew a chance to win the game on the opening possession of overtime when Wilson was intercepted at the 4 by Dre Greenlaw. It was Wilson's second interception of the season and just the second red-zone interception in overtime in the last 25 years, according to STATS, with Jacoby Brissett having the other in 2017 against San Francisco.
Greenlaw returned it 47 yards to the Seattle 49 and the Niners moved the ball 20 yards before McLaughlin missed badly to the left on a 47-yard attempt. McLaughlin had made his first three field goals after being signed earlier in the week when Robbie Gould went down with a quadriceps injury.
The teams then traded punts, the Seahawks took over at their 36 with 1:25 remaining and drove for the winning score.
After the defenses dominated much of the game with each team scoring a defensive touchdown and generating three takeaways apiece, the quarterbacks traded late drives for field goals that set the stage for overtime.
Wilson drove the Seahawks 47 yards before Chris Carson was stuffed on third-and-1, leading to a 46-yard field goal by Myers with 1:45 to play.
Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners took over from there and used short passes to move the ball down to the 29 where McLaughlin kicked a 47-yard field goal with 1 second left to tie it at 24.
Seattle capitalized on a pair of turnovers in the third quarter to take a 21-10 lead. Garoppolo threw a pass that deflected off Kendrick Bourne's hands to Quandre Diggs, who returned it 44 yards to the 16. Wilson scrambled down to the 3 and then lofted a TD pass to Jacob Hollister after avoiding pressure in the pocket to put Seattle up 14-10.
On San Francisco's next drive, Jadeveon Clowney beat Mike McGlinchey and knocked the ball out of Garoppolo's hands for a fumble that was recovered by Poona Ford at the 24. Carson ran it in four plays later to make it an 11-point game.
The 49ers got back into the game with a big defensive play of their own. K'Waun Williams sacked Wilson, knocking the ball loose to right tackle Germain Ifedi. Ifedi tried to run with the ball but Fred Warner knocked it loose again and DeForest Buckner ran it in 12 yards for the score. Garoppolo then completed the 2-point conversion to Bourne, cutting the deficit to 21-18.
The 49ers then tied it on McLaughlin's second field goal of the game.
The Niners scored on their first two possessions to take a 10-0 lead but Clowney then returned a fumble by Garoppolo 10 yards for a TD to get Seattle back into the game.
BIG PLAY
The Seahawks were poised to take the lead into halftime when D.K. Metcalf took a short pass from Wilson and ran it inside the 5. But as he was fighting for more yardage, safety Jaquiski Tartt ripped it out of his hands at the 2-yard line for an impressive fumble recovery.
DEBUT PERFORMANCES
Diggs started in his first game for Seattle since being acquired last month in a trade from Detroit.
Receiver Josh Gordon also made his Seahawks debut after being claimed off waivers last week from New England. He caught a 13-yard pass to convert a third down on the late field-goal drive in the fourth quarter and another to convert a third down in overtime.
INJURIES
Seahawks: TE Luke Willson left with a hamstring injury.
49ers: WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) left in the first quarter. DT D.J. Jones was sidelined later in the first half with a groin injury. LB Azeez Al-Shaair left with a concussion in the third quarter. RB Matt Breida left in the second half with an ankle injury. DL Ronald Blair left the game with a knee injury.
UP NEXT
Seahawks: Week off before visiting Philadelphia on Nov. 24.
49ers: Host Arizona on Sunday.
November 11, 2019
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Jason Myers kicked a 42-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin missed a kick earlier in overtime, and the Seattle Seahawks handed the San Francisco 49ers their first loss of the season with a 27-24 victory on Monday night.
Myers gave Seattle (8-2) its second straight overtime win after Russell Wilson got the Seahawks into position with an 18-yard scramble on third-and-3. After being iced by a timeout, Myers delivered one week after missing two field goals and an extra point, putting Seattle right in the thick of the NFC West race with San Francisco (8-1).
The Seahawks blew a chance to win the game on the opening possession of overtime when Wilson was intercepted at the 4 by Dre Greenlaw. It was Wilson's second interception of the season and just the second red-zone interception in overtime in the last 25 years, according to STATS, with Jacoby Brissett having the other in 2017 against San Francisco.
Greenlaw returned it 47 yards to the Seattle 49 and the Niners moved the ball 20 yards before McLaughlin missed badly to the left on a 47-yard attempt. McLaughlin had made his first three field goals after being signed earlier in the week when Robbie Gould went down with a quadriceps injury.
The teams then traded punts, the Seahawks took over at their 36 with 1:25 remaining and drove for the winning score.
After the defenses dominated much of the game with each team scoring a defensive touchdown and generating three takeaways apiece, the quarterbacks traded late drives for field goals that set the stage for overtime.
Wilson drove the Seahawks 47 yards before Chris Carson was stuffed on third-and-1, leading to a 46-yard field goal by Myers with 1:45 to play.
Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners took over from there and used short passes to move the ball down to the 29 where McLaughlin kicked a 47-yard field goal with 1 second left to tie it at 24.
Seattle capitalized on a pair of turnovers in the third quarter to take a 21-10 lead. Garoppolo threw a pass that deflected off Kendrick Bourne's hands to Quandre Diggs, who returned it 44 yards to the 16. Wilson scrambled down to the 3 and then lofted a TD pass to Jacob Hollister after avoiding pressure in the pocket to put Seattle up 14-10.
On San Francisco's next drive, Jadeveon Clowney beat Mike McGlinchey and knocked the ball out of Garoppolo's hands for a fumble that was recovered by Poona Ford at the 24. Carson ran it in four plays later to make it an 11-point game.
The 49ers got back into the game with a big defensive play of their own. K'Waun Williams sacked Wilson, knocking the ball loose to right tackle Germain Ifedi. Ifedi tried to run with the ball but Fred Warner knocked it loose again and DeForest Buckner ran it in 12 yards for the score. Garoppolo then completed the 2-point conversion to Bourne, cutting the deficit to 21-18.
The 49ers then tied it on McLaughlin's second field goal of the game.
The Niners scored on their first two possessions to take a 10-0 lead but Clowney then returned a fumble by Garoppolo 10 yards for a TD to get Seattle back into the game.
BIG PLAY
The Seahawks were poised to take the lead into halftime when D.K. Metcalf took a short pass from Wilson and ran it inside the 5. But as he was fighting for more yardage, safety Jaquiski Tartt ripped it out of his hands at the 2-yard line for an impressive fumble recovery.
DEBUT PERFORMANCES
Diggs started in his first game for Seattle since being acquired last month in a trade from Detroit.
Receiver Josh Gordon also made his Seahawks debut after being claimed off waivers last week from New England. He caught a 13-yard pass to convert a third down on the late field-goal drive in the fourth quarter and another to convert a third down in overtime.
INJURIES
Seahawks: TE Luke Willson left with a hamstring injury.
49ers: WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) left in the first quarter. DT D.J. Jones was sidelined later in the first half with a groin injury. LB Azeez Al-Shaair left with a concussion in the third quarter. RB Matt Breida left in the second half with an ankle injury. DL Ronald Blair left the game with a knee injury.
UP NEXT
Seahawks: Week off before visiting Philadelphia on Nov. 24.
49ers: Host Arizona on Sunday.
Hot & Not Report - Week 11
November 11, 2019
By Matt Blunt
Week of November 11th
Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.
Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.
With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.
Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.
Who's Hot
NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year
Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.
And in today's edge of NFL being an ?Any given Sunday? type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.
A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss ? unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather ? and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense ? for whatever reason ? the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.
For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.
Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts ? Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent ? are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.
Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.
And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get ?right? again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.
I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.
During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.
There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars ? now that QB Nick Foles is back ? would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...
Who's Not
Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win
By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call ?bad? teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.
I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.
Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.
Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent ? Washington ? found there way into the ?Hot? part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.
Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills ? the Browns went into ?force feed Odell Beckham mode? and it ruined the entire flow of the offense ? is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.
Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.
Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).
I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
November 11, 2019
By Matt Blunt
Week of November 11th
Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.
Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.
With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.
Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.
Who's Hot
NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year
Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.
And in today's edge of NFL being an ?Any given Sunday? type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.
A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss ? unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather ? and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense ? for whatever reason ? the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.
For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.
Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts ? Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent ? are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.
Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.
And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get ?right? again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.
I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.
During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.
There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars ? now that QB Nick Foles is back ? would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...
Who's Not
Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win
By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call ?bad? teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.
I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.
Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.
Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent ? Washington ? found there way into the ?Hot? part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.
Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills ? the Browns went into ?force feed Odell Beckham mode? and it ruined the entire flow of the offense ? is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.
Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.
Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).
I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
Skins QB Haskins to start rest of season
November 11, 2019
By The Associated Press
ASHBURN, Va. (AP) Dwayne Haskins' time has finally come.
The Washington Redskins on Monday named Haskins their starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 15th overall draft pick takes over with Washington 1-8 and the New York Jets up next Sunday.
''We've got a lot of confidence in Dwayne,'' interim coach Bill Callahan said in announcing the much-expected move. ''He's worked hard, he's smart, he studies, he prepares, so this will be a great opportunity for him going forward.''
Haskins is 27 of 44 for 284 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions in three appearances - two in relief and a start Nov. 3 at Buffalo. The Jets game will be his second NFL start.
''It helps to have a full week of preparation where you're the starter,'' second-year receiver Trey Quinn said. ''I'm looking forward to seeing him grow because he's a talent. He's definitely a talent, so sky's the limit right now for him. It's just up to him to take the extra time and learn on his own.''
Previous coach Jay Gruden and Callahan had been reluctant to hand the reins over to Haskins because he looked much more like a long-term project than a ready-made professional quarterback. Veteran Case Keenum started seven of the first eight games and longtime backup Colt McCoy the other.
But Haskins showed enough in his audition against the Bills to earn the full-time role. Callahan liked Haskins' consistency and decisiveness in completing 15 of 22 passes with a limited playbook.
There's also the mere fact that this is becoming a lost season for the Redskins, who are likely to have a top five draft pick and would be wise to see what they have in Haskins.
''He needs the experience,'' Callahan said. ''Let's give Dwayne an opportunity. We're at a juncture where we don't want to be record-wise, so this is a good opportunity for him to take advantage of every (snap) practice-wise and game-wise so we can see growth in his play.''
There already has been growth in Haskins from a very raw training camp through this week.
''He's always had an arm, always standing tall in the pocket and is confident in himself and I think the people around him,'' Quinn said. ''Other than that, it's just getting in the pro system and kind of feeling comfortable calling the plays, going through the progressions, making the check at the line and just studying a little extra. Week by week, he's done that.''
Keenum is expected to serve as the backup against the 2-7 Jets with McCoy the third QB. Haskins should have another offensive weapon at his disposal with the anticipated return of running back Derrius Guice.
November 11, 2019
By The Associated Press
ASHBURN, Va. (AP) Dwayne Haskins' time has finally come.
The Washington Redskins on Monday named Haskins their starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 15th overall draft pick takes over with Washington 1-8 and the New York Jets up next Sunday.
''We've got a lot of confidence in Dwayne,'' interim coach Bill Callahan said in announcing the much-expected move. ''He's worked hard, he's smart, he studies, he prepares, so this will be a great opportunity for him going forward.''
Haskins is 27 of 44 for 284 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions in three appearances - two in relief and a start Nov. 3 at Buffalo. The Jets game will be his second NFL start.
''It helps to have a full week of preparation where you're the starter,'' second-year receiver Trey Quinn said. ''I'm looking forward to seeing him grow because he's a talent. He's definitely a talent, so sky's the limit right now for him. It's just up to him to take the extra time and learn on his own.''
Previous coach Jay Gruden and Callahan had been reluctant to hand the reins over to Haskins because he looked much more like a long-term project than a ready-made professional quarterback. Veteran Case Keenum started seven of the first eight games and longtime backup Colt McCoy the other.
But Haskins showed enough in his audition against the Bills to earn the full-time role. Callahan liked Haskins' consistency and decisiveness in completing 15 of 22 passes with a limited playbook.
There's also the mere fact that this is becoming a lost season for the Redskins, who are likely to have a top five draft pick and would be wise to see what they have in Haskins.
''He needs the experience,'' Callahan said. ''Let's give Dwayne an opportunity. We're at a juncture where we don't want to be record-wise, so this is a good opportunity for him to take advantage of every (snap) practice-wise and game-wise so we can see growth in his play.''
There already has been growth in Haskins from a very raw training camp through this week.
''He's always had an arm, always standing tall in the pocket and is confident in himself and I think the people around him,'' Quinn said. ''Other than that, it's just getting in the pro system and kind of feeling comfortable calling the plays, going through the progressions, making the check at the line and just studying a little extra. Week by week, he's done that.''
Keenum is expected to serve as the backup against the 2-7 Jets with McCoy the third QB. Haskins should have another offensive weapon at his disposal with the anticipated return of running back Derrius Guice.
Browns take step in unpredictable season
November 11, 2019
By The Associated Press
CLEVELAND (AP) When the Browns finally reached the end zone after so many embarrassing, empty trips inside the red zone, they also re-discovered Rashard Higgins, their mysteriously lost wide receiver.
Perversely perfect.
This strange, unpredictable season had another weird moment.
Desperate for a win, the Browns found a way and ended a four-game skid on Sunday with a 19-16 win over the Buffalo Bills, a victory that provided relief and perhaps a glimpse of Cleveland's offensive future.
Higgins, who had inexplicably gone from quarterback Baker Mayfield's go-to guy last season to coach Freddie Kitchens' doghouse through eight games, caught a 7-yard touchdown pass with 1:44 left as the Browns (3-6) temporarily stopped a season that started with playoff chatter and Super Bowl talk from decaying into a painful coaching search and early discussion about NFL draft positioning.
''It can be a great thing for us,'' said Mayfield, who threw two TD passes and had his second straight game without an interception. ''We still didn't play perfect by any means. We can still learn from the film, move forward and improve. Having a tight victory against a great team is something that we needed, especially at home. Kind of getting the monkey off our back with that one.
''The first win at home in Game 9 isn't something that usually happens, but it can get us going from here.''
Some missing pieces emerged for the Browns, namely Higgins and running back Kareem Hunt, who made his debut following an eight-game NFL suspension for two violent, physical off-field altercations last year. Hunt finished with 30 yards rushing and 44 receiving on seven catches.
Higgins had been the odd-man out, and he only got more playing time against the Bills because Kitchens benched Antonio Callaway for an unspecified disciplinary infraction.
It wouldn't be the Browns without some kind of drama.
Hunt's addition to Cleveland's offense had an immediate and dramatic effect. He perfectly complemented Nick Chubb, who ran for 116 yards on 20 carries and buffaloed several Bills defenders on a few runs. A talented receiver, Hunt also became a needed check-down for Mayfield, who didn't force as many throws to star receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
Kitchens has a full offensive toolbox at his disposal. There are no more excuses, and now it's up to Kitchens - and Mayfield - to use this plethora of playmakers wisely.
''Anytime you get two backs in the game, it is tough for defenses to play differently,'' Mayfield said. ''You have to bring a guy down and you are worried about the receivers on the outside.''
The two-back set could become Cleveland's bread and butter going forward. The Browns will get a chance to test out their new 1-2 punch on Thursday night when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4), who have shaken off a slow start with four straight wins.
WHAT'S WORKING
Chubb never batted an eye when Hunt's return threatened to curtail his touches. Against the Bills, the second-year back simply made the most of his chances.
He has at least 75 yards from scrimmage in eight consecutive games, the league's longest active streak. Chubb has four 100-yard rushing games this season and his 919 yards rushing are the sixth most by a Browns player through nine games. The top five all belong to Hall of Famer Jim Brown.
WHAT NEEDS HELP
The closer the Browns get to the goal line, the farther away they seem. Buffalo stopped Cleveland on eight consecutive plays from inside the 2 in the first quarter and on four more inside the 5 in the second quarter before Kitchens opted to kick a field goal following a false start.
Chubb was stoned by the Bills on five tries near the goal line.
Kitchens isn't changing his approach in the shadow of the uprights.
''I need to call better plays when we get down there,'' he said. ''But I am telling you right now, we are running the ball when we get down there.''
STOCK UP
Other than getting winded and asking for a sub, Hunt ran with purpose and showed little rust in his first game in nearly one year. The 24-year-old acknowledged being emotional and nervous, but it didn't show.
STOCK DOWN
Star defensive end Myles Garrett hasn't had a sack in two games, and he was credited with just one tackle Sunday. That's not to say Garrett wasn't disruptive, but he's not making the types of impactful, game-changing plays the Browns need.
INJURED
Kitchens said his team came through the Bills game ''pretty good for the most part.'' He added defensive end Olivier Vernon remains day to day with a knee injury sustained against Denver.
KEY NUMBER
4 - A season low in penalties for the Browns, who averaged 10 infractions in their first seven games but have been flagged just nine times the past two weeks.
NEXT STEPS
A short turnaround before hosting the Steelers, who are in the AFC playoff picture.
November 11, 2019
By The Associated Press
CLEVELAND (AP) When the Browns finally reached the end zone after so many embarrassing, empty trips inside the red zone, they also re-discovered Rashard Higgins, their mysteriously lost wide receiver.
Perversely perfect.
This strange, unpredictable season had another weird moment.
Desperate for a win, the Browns found a way and ended a four-game skid on Sunday with a 19-16 win over the Buffalo Bills, a victory that provided relief and perhaps a glimpse of Cleveland's offensive future.
Higgins, who had inexplicably gone from quarterback Baker Mayfield's go-to guy last season to coach Freddie Kitchens' doghouse through eight games, caught a 7-yard touchdown pass with 1:44 left as the Browns (3-6) temporarily stopped a season that started with playoff chatter and Super Bowl talk from decaying into a painful coaching search and early discussion about NFL draft positioning.
''It can be a great thing for us,'' said Mayfield, who threw two TD passes and had his second straight game without an interception. ''We still didn't play perfect by any means. We can still learn from the film, move forward and improve. Having a tight victory against a great team is something that we needed, especially at home. Kind of getting the monkey off our back with that one.
''The first win at home in Game 9 isn't something that usually happens, but it can get us going from here.''
Some missing pieces emerged for the Browns, namely Higgins and running back Kareem Hunt, who made his debut following an eight-game NFL suspension for two violent, physical off-field altercations last year. Hunt finished with 30 yards rushing and 44 receiving on seven catches.
Higgins had been the odd-man out, and he only got more playing time against the Bills because Kitchens benched Antonio Callaway for an unspecified disciplinary infraction.
It wouldn't be the Browns without some kind of drama.
Hunt's addition to Cleveland's offense had an immediate and dramatic effect. He perfectly complemented Nick Chubb, who ran for 116 yards on 20 carries and buffaloed several Bills defenders on a few runs. A talented receiver, Hunt also became a needed check-down for Mayfield, who didn't force as many throws to star receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
Kitchens has a full offensive toolbox at his disposal. There are no more excuses, and now it's up to Kitchens - and Mayfield - to use this plethora of playmakers wisely.
''Anytime you get two backs in the game, it is tough for defenses to play differently,'' Mayfield said. ''You have to bring a guy down and you are worried about the receivers on the outside.''
The two-back set could become Cleveland's bread and butter going forward. The Browns will get a chance to test out their new 1-2 punch on Thursday night when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4), who have shaken off a slow start with four straight wins.
WHAT'S WORKING
Chubb never batted an eye when Hunt's return threatened to curtail his touches. Against the Bills, the second-year back simply made the most of his chances.
He has at least 75 yards from scrimmage in eight consecutive games, the league's longest active streak. Chubb has four 100-yard rushing games this season and his 919 yards rushing are the sixth most by a Browns player through nine games. The top five all belong to Hall of Famer Jim Brown.
WHAT NEEDS HELP
The closer the Browns get to the goal line, the farther away they seem. Buffalo stopped Cleveland on eight consecutive plays from inside the 2 in the first quarter and on four more inside the 5 in the second quarter before Kitchens opted to kick a field goal following a false start.
Chubb was stoned by the Bills on five tries near the goal line.
Kitchens isn't changing his approach in the shadow of the uprights.
''I need to call better plays when we get down there,'' he said. ''But I am telling you right now, we are running the ball when we get down there.''
STOCK UP
Other than getting winded and asking for a sub, Hunt ran with purpose and showed little rust in his first game in nearly one year. The 24-year-old acknowledged being emotional and nervous, but it didn't show.
STOCK DOWN
Star defensive end Myles Garrett hasn't had a sack in two games, and he was credited with just one tackle Sunday. That's not to say Garrett wasn't disruptive, but he's not making the types of impactful, game-changing plays the Browns need.
INJURED
Kitchens said his team came through the Bills game ''pretty good for the most part.'' He added defensive end Olivier Vernon remains day to day with a knee injury sustained against Denver.
KEY NUMBER
4 - A season low in penalties for the Browns, who averaged 10 infractions in their first seven games but have been flagged just nine times the past two weeks.
NEXT STEPS
A short turnaround before hosting the Steelers, who are in the AFC playoff picture.
NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................22-24-1.........47.82%..........-22.00
*****************************
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................11 - 8............+11.00...........8 - 13............-41.50............-30.50
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................22-24-1.........47.82%..........-22.00
*****************************
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................11 - 8............+11.00...........8 - 13............-41.50............-30.50
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
National Football League Week 10 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 5-7
Against the Spread 3-8-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-4-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-5
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 89-54-1
Against the Spread 60-81-3
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 77-66-1
Against the Spread 62-79-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 72-71-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) at Saints, 26-9
Dolphins (+11, ML +450) at Colts, 16-12
Titans (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Chiefs, 35-32
Steelers (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Rams, 17-12
Jets (+3, ML +130) vs. Giants, 34-27
Vikings (+3, ML +160) at Cowboys, 28-24
The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Cowboys (-6.5) at Giants, 37-18
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20
Double-Digit 'Dogs BITE!
-- The Atlanta Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) stunned the New Orleans Saints in NOLA on Sunday during the 1:00 p.m. ET window, while the Miami Dolphins (+11, ML +450)...(hey, weren't they supposed to be tanking?)...shocked the Lucas Oil Stadium faithful with a 16-12 win against the Indianapolis Colts. It actually hasn't been that long since two double-digit underdogs won outright on the same day in the NFL, as the Dolphins and Giants accomplished the feat Oct. 15, 2017.
The Dolphiins had a little luck, as QB Jacoby Brissett was inactive due to a knee injury, but it's not like QB Brian Hoyer was some rookie nobody who hasn't played before. He tossed three touchdowns last week against a good Steelers defense. The 'Fins just came to play, and have won two in a row, as all of a sudden they look like an NFL-caliber team under head coach Brian Flores, who is putting his stamp on the team. After going 0-4 ATS in the first four games, the Dolphins now have a winning record against the spread, covering each of the past five outings.
The loss by the Saints might have been even more surprising, as QB Drew Brees looked good in his return last time out before the bye. Both of these teams had two weeks to prepare for each other, and head coach Dan Quinn likely bought himself more time as the head coach with the eye-popping win. The Falcons defense had shown no signs of an effective pass rush, or an ability to stop the pass, but they held the Saints to single digits in the points department. And that's why they play the games.
Total Recall
-- The two highest totals on the board were the Arizona Cardinals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5) and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (51.5). It was a mixed bag. The Cards-Bucs game was on a good pace from the start, and helped in large part due to a 20-point second quarter, with 10 points for each team. It wasn't a slam-dunk 'over', but a go-ahead touchdown by the Bucs with 1:43 clinched the winning ticket.
As far as the Falcons-Saints game was concerned, it got off to a slow start and never really threatened to go over. The teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Atlanta had two touchdowns in this game, but inexplicably, the Saints had none. Hey, sometimes it's better to lose one like this than by a half-point or on a bad beat.
There were three games -- the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers-Green Bay Packers -- which closed at 49. The Chargers-Raiders game ended up going over by a single point, and it was a bit of a bad beat. There were 37 points on the board until the Chargers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 4:02 to go, taking a 24-20 lead. The Raiders charged back and posted the game-winning touchdown with 1:02 to go.
For the Chiefs-Titans game, it was looking like a close shave at halftime, with a total of 26 on the board, tied 13-13. The teams combined for 16 points in the third quarter, and 25 points in an explosive fourth, as the this game finished as the highest-scoring game on the board. The other game, the Panthers-Packers game, was a close call. The snow picked up in the second half, but it didn't seem to affect the sides too much. Head coach Ron Rivera did go with the 'analytics', going for two down 24-16, eschewing the extra point. While there is debate, especially in the Twitterverse, on whether it was the right call, it definitely wasn't helpful to the over. They needed a touchdown and two-point conversion after it failed. However, had the gamble worked, they would have needed a touchdown and then just the point after for a push. Of course, none of that came into fruition.
The 'over' hit the first two primetime games of Week 10, coming on the heels of a three-game primetime 'over' sweep in Week 9. The Monday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) is still pending. The 'over' is just 11-19 (36.7%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.
Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.
In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.
In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (foot) left with a foot injury and was unable to return. The good news is that there were very few other major injuries across the board.
Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles
-- The Steelers and Browns meet each other Thursday night on the shores of Lake Erie. It still isn't quite the rivalry it was in the past. It's now or never for the Browns. They won in Week 10 against the Bills, and they could get right back into the AFC wild card picture with a win, while dealing their rivals from the Steel City a tough blow with a win. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five appearances on Thursday, and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. The Browns are 5-21-2 ATS in the past 28 against winning teams, and 9-23-1 ATS in the past 33 at home. However, they are 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division and 6-2 ATS in the past eight appearances on a Thursday.
-- The Falcons host the Panthers on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, and not many figured Atlanta would be coming off a win in Week 10 in New Orleans, while Carolina would be coming in off a loss. Despite their outright win as a double-digit 'dog the Falcons are still 5-16 ATS in the past 21 road games. The Panthers are still 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven at home against Atlatna. The home team has covered in 10 of the past 13 in this series, too. The under is an impressive 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings overall, while the under is 17-5-2 in the past 24 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
-- The Bills look to rebound after their first loss on the road in Cleveland. The Dolphins picked up their first road win in Indianapolis. These teams met in Buffalo back in Week 7, with the Bills favored by 17. Miami covered in a 31-21 loss, and they're less than a touchdown 'dog at Hard Rock against the Bills. Can Miami make it three wins in a row as an outright underdog?
-- The Jaguars and Colts lock horns at Lucas Oil Stadium, and Indianapolis looks to bounce back after a stunning loss at home. The Jags, meanwhile, are coming off a bye. It's a super important game for the Colts, who just a couple of weeks ago won in Kansas City and were looking like a surprise team in the AFC. How quickly things change. The Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but 3-0-1 ATS in the past four coming off a bye. The Colts have covered five straight inside the division. Jacksonville has dominated this series lately, however, going 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four trips to Indy. The under is also 4-1 in the past five battles, and 7-1 in the previous eight in Indy.
-- The Saints have cashed in 23 of their past 31 games on the road, and they'll be looking to rebound after a stunning loss at home. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and they have failed to cover in four straight. Total bettors love the Bucs, as they 'over' is 7-0 across the past seven for Tampa.
-- The Cardinals hit the road looking to avenge a narrow Thursday night loss at home to the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, including 1-0 ATS against the Niners, and 5-1 ATS in the past six on the road. The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in the past four against the Cards, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home against Arizona. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings with the underdog 5-1 ATS in the past six in the series.
-- The Chiefs and Chargers will battle at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Monday night. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four Monday appearances, and 20-8 ATS in the past 28 against divisional foes. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. Kansas City has covered four of the past five in this series, too. The Raiders have appeared twice in this game previously, but neither of these teams have been the opponent. This is both the Chiefs and Chargers first appearance in Mexico. Kansas City was supposed to face the Rams last season, but they game was moved due to poor field conditions. As far as the totals, not much can be gleaned from the past two results, as the total is 1-1. Estadio Azteca is located at an elevation of 2195 meters, or 7,200 feet. That's nearly 2,000 feet higher than Denver, which both teams are more than familiar.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
National Football League Week 10 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 5-7
Against the Spread 3-8-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-4-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-5
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 89-54-1
Against the Spread 60-81-3
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 77-66-1
Against the Spread 62-79-3
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 72-71-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) at Saints, 26-9
Dolphins (+11, ML +450) at Colts, 16-12
Titans (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Chiefs, 35-32
Steelers (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Rams, 17-12
Jets (+3, ML +130) vs. Giants, 34-27
Vikings (+3, ML +160) at Cowboys, 28-24
The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Cowboys (-6.5) at Giants, 37-18
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20
Double-Digit 'Dogs BITE!
-- The Atlanta Falcons (+13.5, ML +600) stunned the New Orleans Saints in NOLA on Sunday during the 1:00 p.m. ET window, while the Miami Dolphins (+11, ML +450)...(hey, weren't they supposed to be tanking?)...shocked the Lucas Oil Stadium faithful with a 16-12 win against the Indianapolis Colts. It actually hasn't been that long since two double-digit underdogs won outright on the same day in the NFL, as the Dolphins and Giants accomplished the feat Oct. 15, 2017.
The Dolphiins had a little luck, as QB Jacoby Brissett was inactive due to a knee injury, but it's not like QB Brian Hoyer was some rookie nobody who hasn't played before. He tossed three touchdowns last week against a good Steelers defense. The 'Fins just came to play, and have won two in a row, as all of a sudden they look like an NFL-caliber team under head coach Brian Flores, who is putting his stamp on the team. After going 0-4 ATS in the first four games, the Dolphins now have a winning record against the spread, covering each of the past five outings.
The loss by the Saints might have been even more surprising, as QB Drew Brees looked good in his return last time out before the bye. Both of these teams had two weeks to prepare for each other, and head coach Dan Quinn likely bought himself more time as the head coach with the eye-popping win. The Falcons defense had shown no signs of an effective pass rush, or an ability to stop the pass, but they held the Saints to single digits in the points department. And that's why they play the games.
Total Recall
-- The two highest totals on the board were the Arizona Cardinals-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5) and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (51.5). It was a mixed bag. The Cards-Bucs game was on a good pace from the start, and helped in large part due to a 20-point second quarter, with 10 points for each team. It wasn't a slam-dunk 'over', but a go-ahead touchdown by the Bucs with 1:43 clinched the winning ticket.
As far as the Falcons-Saints game was concerned, it got off to a slow start and never really threatened to go over. The teams exchanged field goals in the first quarter. Atlanta had two touchdowns in this game, but inexplicably, the Saints had none. Hey, sometimes it's better to lose one like this than by a half-point or on a bad beat.
There were three games -- the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs-Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers-Green Bay Packers -- which closed at 49. The Chargers-Raiders game ended up going over by a single point, and it was a bit of a bad beat. There were 37 points on the board until the Chargers scored the go-ahead touchdown with 4:02 to go, taking a 24-20 lead. The Raiders charged back and posted the game-winning touchdown with 1:02 to go.
For the Chiefs-Titans game, it was looking like a close shave at halftime, with a total of 26 on the board, tied 13-13. The teams combined for 16 points in the third quarter, and 25 points in an explosive fourth, as the this game finished as the highest-scoring game on the board. The other game, the Panthers-Packers game, was a close call. The snow picked up in the second half, but it didn't seem to affect the sides too much. Head coach Ron Rivera did go with the 'analytics', going for two down 24-16, eschewing the extra point. While there is debate, especially in the Twitterverse, on whether it was the right call, it definitely wasn't helpful to the over. They needed a touchdown and two-point conversion after it failed. However, had the gamble worked, they would have needed a touchdown and then just the point after for a push. Of course, none of that came into fruition.
The 'over' hit the first two primetime games of Week 10, coming on the heels of a three-game primetime 'over' sweep in Week 9. The Monday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (47.5) is still pending. The 'over' is just 11-19 (36.7%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.
Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.
In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.
In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Falcons RB Devonta Freeman (foot) left with a foot injury and was unable to return. The good news is that there were very few other major injuries across the board.
Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles
-- The Steelers and Browns meet each other Thursday night on the shores of Lake Erie. It still isn't quite the rivalry it was in the past. It's now or never for the Browns. They won in Week 10 against the Bills, and they could get right back into the AFC wild card picture with a win, while dealing their rivals from the Steel City a tough blow with a win. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five appearances on Thursday, and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. The Browns are 5-21-2 ATS in the past 28 against winning teams, and 9-23-1 ATS in the past 33 at home. However, they are 6-2 ATS in the past eight inside the division and 6-2 ATS in the past eight appearances on a Thursday.
-- The Falcons host the Panthers on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, and not many figured Atlanta would be coming off a win in Week 10 in New Orleans, while Carolina would be coming in off a loss. Despite their outright win as a double-digit 'dog the Falcons are still 5-16 ATS in the past 21 road games. The Panthers are still 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven at home against Atlatna. The home team has covered in 10 of the past 13 in this series, too. The under is an impressive 9-2-1 in the past 12 meetings overall, while the under is 17-5-2 in the past 24 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
-- The Bills look to rebound after their first loss on the road in Cleveland. The Dolphins picked up their first road win in Indianapolis. These teams met in Buffalo back in Week 7, with the Bills favored by 17. Miami covered in a 31-21 loss, and they're less than a touchdown 'dog at Hard Rock against the Bills. Can Miami make it three wins in a row as an outright underdog?
-- The Jaguars and Colts lock horns at Lucas Oil Stadium, and Indianapolis looks to bounce back after a stunning loss at home. The Jags, meanwhile, are coming off a bye. It's a super important game for the Colts, who just a couple of weeks ago won in Kansas City and were looking like a surprise team in the AFC. How quickly things change. The Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but 3-0-1 ATS in the past four coming off a bye. The Colts have covered five straight inside the division. Jacksonville has dominated this series lately, however, going 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four trips to Indy. The under is also 4-1 in the past five battles, and 7-1 in the previous eight in Indy.
-- The Saints have cashed in 23 of their past 31 games on the road, and they'll be looking to rebound after a stunning loss at home. The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and they have failed to cover in four straight. Total bettors love the Bucs, as they 'over' is 7-0 across the past seven for Tampa.
-- The Cardinals hit the road looking to avenge a narrow Thursday night loss at home to the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, including 1-0 ATS against the Niners, and 5-1 ATS in the past six on the road. The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in the past four against the Cards, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home against Arizona. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings with the underdog 5-1 ATS in the past six in the series.
-- The Chiefs and Chargers will battle at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Monday night. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four Monday appearances, and 20-8 ATS in the past 28 against divisional foes. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. Kansas City has covered four of the past five in this series, too. The Raiders have appeared twice in this game previously, but neither of these teams have been the opponent. This is both the Chiefs and Chargers first appearance in Mexico. Kansas City was supposed to face the Rams last season, but they game was moved due to poor field conditions. As far as the totals, not much can be gleaned from the past two results, as the total is 1-1. Estadio Azteca is located at an elevation of 2195 meters, or 7,200 feet. That's nearly 2,000 feet higher than Denver, which both teams are more than familiar.
309PITTSBURGH -310 CLEVELAND
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) as a dog in the last 2 seasons.
451DALLAS -452 DETROIT
DALLAS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games over the last 2 seasons.
453NEW ORLEANS -454 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.
455ATLANTA -456 CAROLINA
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 2 seasons.
457JACKSONVILLE -458 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) vs. below avg. teams (40-49%) since 1992.
459DENVER -460 MINNESOTA
DENVER is 18-40 ATS (-26 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
461NY JETS -462 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.
463BUFFALO -464 MIAMI
MIAMI is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
465HOUSTON -466 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
467ARIZONA -468 SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA is 17-3 ATS (13.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=260 yards/game since 1992.
469NEW ENGLAND -470 PHILADELPHIA
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.
471CINCINNATI -472 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 15-43 ATS (-32.3 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.
473CHICAGO -474 LA RAMS
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
475KANSAS CITY -476 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. since 1992.
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 11
Thursday, November 14
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PITTSBURGH (5 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/14/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 17
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DALLAS (5 - 4) at DETROIT (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (2 - 7) at CAROLINA (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CAROLINA is 85-55 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (3 - 6) at MINNESOTA (7 - 3) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NY JETS (2 - 7) at WASHINGTON (1 - 8) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-98 ATS (-44.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BUFFALO (6 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 7) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at BALTIMORE (7 - 2) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (3 - 6 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 0) - 11/17/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-89 ATS (+30.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-56 ATS (+28.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CINCINNATI (0 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-82 ATS (-49.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (4 - 5) at LA RAMS (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 199-243 ATS (-68.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 199-243 ATS (-68.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-191 ATS (-67.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 153-191 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 72-106 ATS (-44.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 18
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KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) - 11/18/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Week 11
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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 14
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 14-3-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Sunday, November 17
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 16 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 18 games
Denver is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games at home
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games
NY Jets is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games on the road
NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Washington
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 23 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 22 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 22 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 3-10-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 17 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing New England
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New England's last 21 games
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games at home
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
LA Rams is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Chicago
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Rams
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Chicago is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Monday, November 18
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) as a dog in the last 2 seasons.
451DALLAS -452 DETROIT
DALLAS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games over the last 2 seasons.
453NEW ORLEANS -454 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.
455ATLANTA -456 CAROLINA
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 2 seasons.
457JACKSONVILLE -458 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) vs. below avg. teams (40-49%) since 1992.
459DENVER -460 MINNESOTA
DENVER is 18-40 ATS (-26 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.
461NY JETS -462 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.
463BUFFALO -464 MIAMI
MIAMI is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
465HOUSTON -466 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
467ARIZONA -468 SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA is 17-3 ATS (13.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=260 yards/game since 1992.
469NEW ENGLAND -470 PHILADELPHIA
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.
471CINCINNATI -472 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 15-43 ATS (-32.3 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.
473CHICAGO -474 LA RAMS
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
475KANSAS CITY -476 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. since 1992.
****************************
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 11
Thursday, November 14
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PITTSBURGH (5 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/14/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Sunday, November 17
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DALLAS (5 - 4) at DETROIT (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (2 - 7) at CAROLINA (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CAROLINA is 85-55 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (3 - 6) at MINNESOTA (7 - 3) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY JETS (2 - 7) at WASHINGTON (1 - 8) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-98 ATS (-44.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-123 ATS (-43.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BUFFALO (6 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 7) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at BALTIMORE (7 - 2) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (3 - 6 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 0) - 11/17/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ENGLAND (8 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 128-89 ATS (+30.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-56 ATS (+28.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CINCINNATI (0 - 9) at OAKLAND (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-82 ATS (-49.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (4 - 5) at LA RAMS (5 - 4) - 11/17/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 199-243 ATS (-68.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 199-243 ATS (-68.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-191 ATS (-67.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 153-191 ATS (-57.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 72-106 ATS (-44.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 18
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KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) - 11/18/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
***************************
NFL
Week 11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 14
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 14-3-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Sunday, November 17
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Houston
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Minnesota's last 16 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 18 games
Denver is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games at home
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Carolina's last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games
Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games
NY Jets is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games on the road
NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Washington
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 23 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 22 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 22 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 3-10-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Oakland
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 17 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing New England
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New England's last 21 games
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games at home
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
LA Rams is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Chicago
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Rams
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Chicago is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Monday, November 18
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NFL
Dunkel
Week 11
Thursday, November 14
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Game 309-310
November 14, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
130.127
Cleveland
135.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Over
Sunday, November 17
Atlanta @ Carolina
Game 455-456
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.301
Carolina
131.750
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+6); Under
Houston @ Baltimore
Game 465-466
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
136.983
Baltimore
144.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-4); Over
Denver @ Minnesota
Game 459-460
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
131.605
Minnesota
137.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+10 1/2); Under
Buffalo @ Miami
Game 463-464
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
130.058
Miami
122.189
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 8
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-5 1/2); Over
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Game 457-458
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.663
Indianapolis
129.721
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
Even
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under
NY Jets @ Washington
Game 461-462
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.753
Washington
121.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1
38
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1); Over
Dallas @ Detroit
Game 451-452
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
135.458
Detroit
127.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-3 1/2); Over
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Game 453-454
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
132.900
Tampa Bay
130.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+5 1/2); Under
Arizona @ San Francisco
Game 467-468
November 17, 2019 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
124.668
San Francisco
139.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 15
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 11 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-11 1/2); Over
New England @ Philadelphia
Game 469-470
November 17, 2019 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New England
137.958
Philadelphia
137.793
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3 1/2); Under
Cincinnati @ Oakland
Game 471-472
November 17, 2019 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
121.990
Oakland
129.755
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 10 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+10 1/2); Under
Chicago @ LA Rams
Game 473-474
November 17, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.364
LA Rams
133.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over
Monday, November 18
Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Game 475-476
November 18, 2019 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
134.060
LA Chargers
133.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 4
52
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+4); Over
Dunkel
Week 11
Thursday, November 14
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Game 309-310
November 14, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
130.127
Cleveland
135.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Over
Sunday, November 17
Atlanta @ Carolina
Game 455-456
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.301
Carolina
131.750
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+6); Under
Houston @ Baltimore
Game 465-466
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
136.983
Baltimore
144.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-4); Over
Denver @ Minnesota
Game 459-460
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
131.605
Minnesota
137.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+10 1/2); Under
Buffalo @ Miami
Game 463-464
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
130.058
Miami
122.189
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 8
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-5 1/2); Over
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Game 457-458
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.663
Indianapolis
129.721
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
Even
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under
NY Jets @ Washington
Game 461-462
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.753
Washington
121.846
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 1
38
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-1); Over
Dallas @ Detroit
Game 451-452
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
135.458
Detroit
127.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-3 1/2); Over
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Game 453-454
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
132.900
Tampa Bay
130.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+5 1/2); Under
Arizona @ San Francisco
Game 467-468
November 17, 2019 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
124.668
San Francisco
139.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 15
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 11 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-11 1/2); Over
New England @ Philadelphia
Game 469-470
November 17, 2019 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New England
137.958
Philadelphia
137.793
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3 1/2); Under
Cincinnati @ Oakland
Game 471-472
November 17, 2019 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
121.990
Oakland
129.755
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 10 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+10 1/2); Under
Chicago @ LA Rams
Game 473-474
November 17, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.364
LA Rams
133.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over
Monday, November 18
Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Game 475-476
November 18, 2019 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
134.060
LA Chargers
133.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 4
52
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+4); Over
Hot & Not Report - Week 11
Matt Blunt
Week of November 11th
Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.
Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.
With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.
Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.
Who's Hot
NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year
Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.
And in today's edge of NFL being an ?Any given Sunday? type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.
A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss ? unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather ? and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense ? for whatever reason ? the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.
For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.
Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts ? Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent ? are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.
Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.
And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get ?right? again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.
I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.
During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.
There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars ? now that QB Nick Foles is back ? would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...
Who's Not
Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win
By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call ?bad? teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.
I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.
Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.
Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent ? Washington ? found there way into the ?Hot? part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.
Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills ? the Browns went into ?force feed Odell Beckham mode? and it ruined the entire flow of the offense ? is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.
Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.
Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).
I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
Matt Blunt
Week of November 11th
Last week's piece proved to be right on the money for nearly everything, as post-London teams remained winless ATS this year with both the Bengals and Rams losing SU and ATS, as the two games split the over/under as well. That makes it 5-1 O/U this year for teams post-London trip, and 0-6 ATS for them in that same role, with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars being the last two teams to fill that particular role.
Week 11 sees Houston on the road to face the same scorching hot Baltimore team that did force Bengals fans to the hard liquor early as I expected, while Jacksonville's also out on the road in visiting a Colts team who can't be thrilled that they just lost to the Dolphins of all teams. Those same post-London numbers would suggest plays on Baltimore and 'over' and Indianapolis and 'over' so keep that in mind as you work through the Week 11 board.
With those potential 'play on' spots already in our back pocket for Week 11, there are a couple other specific scenarios applicable to Week 11's contests that should be brought to light.
Whether you want to fade them, follow them, or pass on the game all together is up to you, but hopefully these angles can be informative nonetheless.
Who's Hot
NFL Teams that score 9 points or less (since Week 6) are on a 7-2 ATS run the following week; 12-10 ATS on the year
Chalk up this run as a positive for those that are of the mindset that teams are able to bounce back after a bad performance. So often we talk about what a certain team did in their last game, that those results become way more influential the following week then they need to be by far. You see a team get smoked one week and it's just easy to assume that will continue, rather then stepping back and looking at the much larger picture.
And in today's edge of NFL being an ?Any given Sunday? type league where anybody can win against anyone, it seems to be that teams that don't find a way to get it going offensively, have had minimal issues in bouncing back strong as of late.
A game of scoring 9 or fewer points almost always chalks up to a loss ? unless you are San Francisco beating up on Washington in extreme bad weather ? and nobody in the NFL likes to string losing weeks together. Losing a game when you get beat is one thing, but when teams beat themselves with poor execution and don't even give themselves a chance to win games is where the motivational angle the following week can hold more weight. And given the run for these teams that don't execute on offense ? for whatever reason ? the following week against the number, they are sides you should be seriously interested in.
For Week 11 we actually get three teams alive in this scenario (pending the MNF result), as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins are live in this situation coming off a bye. Those two teams are added by New Orleans in this spot, after the Saints dismal showing as a heavy home favorite vs Atlanta yesterday.
Jacksonville's ATS situation becomes more convoluted with this being a 'play on' spot for them, while the post-London situation would suggest a fade. Again another reason to just use trends and runs like this as a mere part of the entire handicapping process, because the Colts ? Jacksonville's Week 11 opponent ? are in a nice potential bounce back spot themselves after losing to Miami. But Indy's QB situation is still a concern, and it never hurts to pass on a game if there are too many conflicts in the information you find that you believe is important to future success.
Washington's been a regular in this scenario all year as they've scored 9 points or less four times now in 2019. The previous three times saw the Redskins go 1-2 ATS the next time out, so they've actually been a loser in a trend that's overall got a winning record this year. At home against the Jets, and off a bye week, the spots don't get much better then that for Washington.
And then you've got the Saints who go out to visit Tampa Bay next week in a game where the Saints offense should get ?right? again against a Buccaneers defense that gives up points to everyone. That's another division game in this spot (Jax/Indy) being the other, and it's probably one that 'over' bettors should get on sooner rather then later.
I say that because, what's interesting about these teams coming off a lackluster offensive performance of 9 or fewer points, is that they have been bouncing back in big ways the following week; if they've got somewhat of a respectable offense.
During this 7-2 ATS run these teams are on, they've averaged putting up 23.22 points the following week. That number includes two Washington games of scoring 9 points on both occasions, and the Jets (15 points) and Broncos (13 points) not exactly pulling their weight either.
There aren't too many in the NFL market that would say those teams have 'respectable' offenses right now, but the Saints and arguably the Jaguars ? now that QB Nick Foles is back ? would be at worst in consideration for teams in that discussion. And it might be best to keep that Saints selection on your mind because...
Who's Not
Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and the NY Jets are a perfect 0-6 ATS this year when coming off a SU win
By definition, bad teams become bad teams because they can't string together consecutive wins when you boil it right down. It doesn't matter if you lose every game by 30+ or by a game-winning FG missing/getting blocked every time, 10 weeks into the year, a team's win/loss record tends to tell most of the story. And those four teams listed in the title, are all what I would call ?bad? teams this year, and wouldn't you know it, all four of them go into Week 11 off outright wins.
I'll start with Tampa Bay, as they are the ones hosting the aforementioned New Orleans Saints this week in a game that fits both of these scenarios. Tampa has been a money-burning team for over a month now, as a 0-5 ATS run the past five has been rough. The Bucs would take respected money for weeks only to come up short in one-possession games in a variety of ways. I got caught backing them this week in a game I expected them to win by more then they did vs Arizona, but it's going to be tough to get on board with them this week.
Not only are the Buccaneers 0-2 ATS off a SU win this year, they are already 0-1 ATS in that spot when it's the Saints sharing a field with them. New Orleans won the first meeting 31-24 after the Bucs upset the Rams out in LA a week earlier, and with the Saints looking for redemption after laying an egg vs Atlanta, it looks like this is a Saints ATS spot or nothing.
Fading the New York Jets this week would follow a similar thought process in that their opponent ? Washington ? found there way into the ?Hot? part of this piece as well. That's two bad teams going up against one another though, and those games can bring a lot of extra headaches in general. But like the game above, it would be Washington or nothing for me there.
Cleveland is at home on TNF to face a suddenly surging Steelers team that believes they are still able to catch Baltimore in the AFC North, and I'm just not so sure it happens. The fact that Cleveland still shot themselves in the foot far too often in scratching out a win against the Bills ? the Browns went into ?force feed Odell Beckham mode? and it ruined the entire flow of the offense ? is still highly concerning. If the Browns are going to try and continue to build towards living up to all the preseason hype that they themselves created, winning this game on TNF is a must, and it's a cause for pause on fading the Browns this week. They still are Cleveland though, and are still just 3-6 SU, and like I said, 10 weeks in, a team's record tells most of the story.
Finally we get a fade of the Atlanta Falcons in this spot, and this is one where it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta is coming off a convincing win as double digit underdogs, and back on the road for their second straight road division game. They are catching less than a TD against a Panthers team that struggled in the cold yesterday, but probably won't get caught overlooking the Falcons in a similar manner to what we saw from New Orleans on Sunday.
Atlanta's win over the Saints is likely going to push some towards taking the points there as a reactionary measure to last week's results. But the Panthers have won their last two games by at least 10 points when they are coming off a SU loss themselves this season, and after this Atlanta defense played well over their heads in holding the Saints down on Sunday, chances are that Falcons unit regresses hard to the defense that allows 28.8 points per game on the year still (28th in NFL).
I doubt these 'bad' teams stay winless ATS off a win the rest of the year, but fading all four of them this week should at worst prove to be a break-even proposition. Obviously some appear to be better fades then others (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), but too much information and reasoning behind a specific play isn't always the worst thing in the world.
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 11 odds: Now's the time to make this Chiefs-Chargers bet
Jason Logan
It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time, but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level ? more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role Monday night.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.
Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 11 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5, 41)
This line has flirted with a touchdown since opening. Some books hung Rams -7 out of the gate and that got bet down to -6.5 while others are clinging to that spread and hiking the juice on Los Angeles.
If you like the Rams to rebound from a Week 10 loss at Pittsburgh and perform better back in L.A. on Sunday Night Football, get this spread below the touchdown now.
According to our Covers Consensus, 67 percent of wagers are riding on Los Angeles early in the week and the public will undoubtedly join in on that opinion closer to kickoff. Chicago may have snapped its four-game losing skid last Sunday, but that win came against a Detroit Lions squad missing QB Matthew Stafford.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3.5, 44.5)
Oh boy, the media is going to have a field day with this rematch of Super Bowl LII. Revenge will be the overwhelming theme and that will play into the public, even though the mastermind of the ?Philly Special? Nick Foles is taking snaps for Jacksonville now.
The Eagles opened as low as +3 and quickly went to +3.5. I don?t expect the line to stop there, and if you like Philadelphia you might want to play it cool and see how high this goes.
Both teams are coming off the bye week, and while the Eagles may not fear the big bad Patriots like other teams, New England is coming off a loss (to Baltimore in Week 9) and boasts a 47-9 SU and 40-16 ATS record in that spot since 2003. If you dare to push back against this 70 percent winner, pump the breaks and wait for more on the Eagles.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 53 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The NFL heads south of the border for this AFC West matchup in Mexico City. Books posted the total between 52.5 and 53 (even some 53.5 out there) but I see this number ticking down before the Monday night kickoff.
Los Angeles has been spotty on offense at best. The Chargers should have blown the Packers clean out of the water two weeks ago but settled for five field goals attempts (made four of them) in a 26-point effort. Then, they scored just 24 points in a loss versus the Raiders on Thursday. That?s not going to be enough to keep pace with Kansas City.
Now, everyone remembers the debacle of last year?s Mexico City game ? Chiefs vs. Rams ? when the field wasn?t up to snuff (and moved to L.A.). It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time (at least enough to play), but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level ? more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role and come the fourth quarter, these teams could be running on empty. If you like the Under, get this total as high as you can now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 44 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Foles gets Take 2 with the Jaguars after lasting eight pass attempts in Week 1 before breaking his collarbone and turning the keys over to rookie QB Gardner Minshew. But with Minshew showing his rookie stripes in recent efforts, Jacksonville has just cause to start their $88 million investment now that he's healthy.
On the other side of the field, Colts QB Jacoby Brissett should be back in action. Indianapolis held him out of Week 10?s game with Miami ? perhaps thinking it could get by the Fins with Brian Hoyer under center ? and got beat. His return to play as well as Foles? could prompt some movement upwards for this total ? if even just a point or so.
Both teams have sound defenses and will lean more on the ground game on the offensive side of the ball, which is why this number is pretty low to begin with. There are some 44.5 Over/Under numbers starting to show and added juice to the Over 44 at other books, so wait and see if you can get a little higher before bagging the Under in this AFC South showdown.
Jason Logan
It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time, but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level ? more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role Monday night.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.
Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 11 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6.5, 41)
This line has flirted with a touchdown since opening. Some books hung Rams -7 out of the gate and that got bet down to -6.5 while others are clinging to that spread and hiking the juice on Los Angeles.
If you like the Rams to rebound from a Week 10 loss at Pittsburgh and perform better back in L.A. on Sunday Night Football, get this spread below the touchdown now.
According to our Covers Consensus, 67 percent of wagers are riding on Los Angeles early in the week and the public will undoubtedly join in on that opinion closer to kickoff. Chicago may have snapped its four-game losing skid last Sunday, but that win came against a Detroit Lions squad missing QB Matthew Stafford.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3.5, 44.5)
Oh boy, the media is going to have a field day with this rematch of Super Bowl LII. Revenge will be the overwhelming theme and that will play into the public, even though the mastermind of the ?Philly Special? Nick Foles is taking snaps for Jacksonville now.
The Eagles opened as low as +3 and quickly went to +3.5. I don?t expect the line to stop there, and if you like Philadelphia you might want to play it cool and see how high this goes.
Both teams are coming off the bye week, and while the Eagles may not fear the big bad Patriots like other teams, New England is coming off a loss (to Baltimore in Week 9) and boasts a 47-9 SU and 40-16 ATS record in that spot since 2003. If you dare to push back against this 70 percent winner, pump the breaks and wait for more on the Eagles.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 53 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The NFL heads south of the border for this AFC West matchup in Mexico City. Books posted the total between 52.5 and 53 (even some 53.5 out there) but I see this number ticking down before the Monday night kickoff.
Los Angeles has been spotty on offense at best. The Chargers should have blown the Packers clean out of the water two weeks ago but settled for five field goals attempts (made four of them) in a 26-point effort. Then, they scored just 24 points in a loss versus the Raiders on Thursday. That?s not going to be enough to keep pace with Kansas City.
Now, everyone remembers the debacle of last year?s Mexico City game ? Chiefs vs. Rams ? when the field wasn?t up to snuff (and moved to L.A.). It looks like the field at Estadio Azteca will pass code this time (at least enough to play), but the altitude in Mexico City (which sits 7,350 feet above sea level ? more than 2,000 feet higher than Denver) will play a role and come the fourth quarter, these teams could be running on empty. If you like the Under, get this total as high as you can now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 44 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Foles gets Take 2 with the Jaguars after lasting eight pass attempts in Week 1 before breaking his collarbone and turning the keys over to rookie QB Gardner Minshew. But with Minshew showing his rookie stripes in recent efforts, Jacksonville has just cause to start their $88 million investment now that he's healthy.
On the other side of the field, Colts QB Jacoby Brissett should be back in action. Indianapolis held him out of Week 10?s game with Miami ? perhaps thinking it could get by the Fins with Brian Hoyer under center ? and got beat. His return to play as well as Foles? could prompt some movement upwards for this total ? if even just a point or so.
Both teams have sound defenses and will lean more on the ground game on the offensive side of the ball, which is why this number is pretty low to begin with. There are some 44.5 Over/Under numbers starting to show and added juice to the Over 44 at other books, so wait and see if you can get a little higher before bagging the Under in this AFC South showdown.
Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, Nov. 14
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Steel on 6-1 spread run last six TY. Browns no covers four of last five and 2-6-1 vs. line TY. If Steelers a dog note 8-1 spread mark since LY in role. Browns 3-1-1 vs. line last five meetings, four of last five ?over? as well.
Tech Edge: Steelers and slight to ?over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.
Sunday, Nov. 17
DALLAS at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions no covers last four TY, also ?over? 6-3 this season. Dallas 5-2-1 vs. spread last eight away, ?over? 7-3 last ten reg season games.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and ?over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have won and covered six of last seven TY. Saints 9-3 vs. line last 12 away. Worth noting these teams have split SU and vs. spread last four seasons, and Saints won first meeting. Bucs 7-1 as home dog since 2017, also on 8-2 ?over? run since late LY.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Saints, based on ?totals? and team trends.
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-2 SU and vs. line last seven TY, Falcons 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. spread last seven TY, though off upset win at Saints. Panthers also on 7-3 ?over? run since late 2018. Falcs however have won and covered last three and six of last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and ?Over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-1 vs. line as visitor TY, also surprising 7-0-1 vs. spread last eight in this series. ?Unders? 4-1 last five in series, though Colts on 7-3 ?over? run since late LY.
Tech Edge: Jags, based on series trends.
DENVER at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Fangio has covered 4 of last 5 TY, but Vikes on 14-3-1 home chalk run. Broncos also 15-3 ?under? since mid 2018 (6-3 ?under? TY), Vikes ?under? 18-10-1 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
NY JETS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets no covers 3 of last 4 or 6 of 9 this season, Skins only 3-6 vs. spread themselves. Skins on 7-3 ?under? run since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.
BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins on 5-0 spread uptick, though Bills 3-1 vs. spread away TY. Bills ?under? 8-3 since late LY but two of those ?overs? came vs. Dolphins.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.
HOUSTON at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 3-1 as dog TY, 6-2 last 8 in role. Houston 8-2-1 last 11 away from home. Ravens 2-7-1 last 10 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium (1-3 TY).
Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards 5-1 vs. line last six TY, also 8-1 SU last nine in series, 8-3 vs. spread last 11 vs. SF. Niners just 3-4 last sevenvs. spread after Monday vs. Seahawks.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on series trends.
NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
If Birds are dogs note 2-1 mark in role TY but only 3-3 since LY. Of course Supe LII rematch. Belichick only 4-5 vs. spread last nine as visitor, also ?under? 14-4 last 18 in reg season, 4-4 vs. line L8 after reg-season loss.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
CINCINNATI at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams 8-2 vs. line last 10 reg season games, and have covered last six reg season away from Coliseum. Also 8-2 ?under? last ten away from home. Steel 5-1 vs. line since Big Ben went down, and note Tomlin's 8-1 mark in dog role since LY. Steel on 6-2 ?under? run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
CHICAGO at LA RAMS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Raiders have now covered 3 in a row and 5 of 6 after win over Bolts. Also ?over? 6-1 last seven TY. Bengals however actually 7-1 vs. spread last 8 as true visitor, and ?under? 7-0-1 last eight away from home.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
Monday, Nov. 18
KANSAS CITY vs. LA CHARGERS (at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City) - (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 2-3 vs. line away from home TY as the road mark begins to flatten, though still 9-5-1 last 15 as dog. Chiefs have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Chargers also ?under? 9-3 last 12 reg season games, KC ?over? 13-5 last 18 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on series trends.
Bruce Marshall
Thursday, Nov. 14
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Steel on 6-1 spread run last six TY. Browns no covers four of last five and 2-6-1 vs. line TY. If Steelers a dog note 8-1 spread mark since LY in role. Browns 3-1-1 vs. line last five meetings, four of last five ?over? as well.
Tech Edge: Steelers and slight to ?over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.
Sunday, Nov. 17
DALLAS at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions no covers last four TY, also ?over? 6-3 this season. Dallas 5-2-1 vs. spread last eight away, ?over? 7-3 last ten reg season games.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and ?over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have won and covered six of last seven TY. Saints 9-3 vs. line last 12 away. Worth noting these teams have split SU and vs. spread last four seasons, and Saints won first meeting. Bucs 7-1 as home dog since 2017, also on 8-2 ?over? run since late LY.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Saints, based on ?totals? and team trends.
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-2 SU and vs. line last seven TY, Falcons 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. spread last seven TY, though off upset win at Saints. Panthers also on 7-3 ?over? run since late 2018. Falcs however have won and covered last three and six of last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and ?Over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-1 vs. line as visitor TY, also surprising 7-0-1 vs. spread last eight in this series. ?Unders? 4-1 last five in series, though Colts on 7-3 ?over? run since late LY.
Tech Edge: Jags, based on series trends.
DENVER at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Fangio has covered 4 of last 5 TY, but Vikes on 14-3-1 home chalk run. Broncos also 15-3 ?under? since mid 2018 (6-3 ?under? TY), Vikes ?under? 18-10-1 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
NY JETS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets no covers 3 of last 4 or 6 of 9 this season, Skins only 3-6 vs. spread themselves. Skins on 7-3 ?under? run since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.
BUFFALO at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins on 5-0 spread uptick, though Bills 3-1 vs. spread away TY. Bills ?under? 8-3 since late LY but two of those ?overs? came vs. Dolphins.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.
HOUSTON at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 3-1 as dog TY, 6-2 last 8 in role. Houston 8-2-1 last 11 away from home. Ravens 2-7-1 last 10 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium (1-3 TY).
Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Cards 5-1 vs. line last six TY, also 8-1 SU last nine in series, 8-3 vs. spread last 11 vs. SF. Niners just 3-4 last sevenvs. spread after Monday vs. Seahawks.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on series trends.
NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
If Birds are dogs note 2-1 mark in role TY but only 3-3 since LY. Of course Supe LII rematch. Belichick only 4-5 vs. spread last nine as visitor, also ?under? 14-4 last 18 in reg season, 4-4 vs. line L8 after reg-season loss.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
CINCINNATI at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams 8-2 vs. line last 10 reg season games, and have covered last six reg season away from Coliseum. Also 8-2 ?under? last ten away from home. Steel 5-1 vs. line since Big Ben went down, and note Tomlin's 8-1 mark in dog role since LY. Steel on 6-2 ?under? run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
CHICAGO at LA RAMS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Raiders have now covered 3 in a row and 5 of 6 after win over Bolts. Also ?over? 6-1 last seven TY. Bengals however actually 7-1 vs. spread last 8 as true visitor, and ?under? 7-0-1 last eight away from home.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.
Monday, Nov. 18
KANSAS CITY vs. LA CHARGERS (at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City) - (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 2-3 vs. line away from home TY as the road mark begins to flatten, though still 9-5-1 last 15 as dog. Chiefs have covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Chargers also ?under? 9-3 last 12 reg season games, KC ?over? 13-5 last 18 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on series trends.
NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 11:
Road Teams: 81-64-3 ATS
Home Teams: 64-81-3 ATS
Favorites: 60-85-3 ATS
Underdogs: 85-60-3 ATS
Home Faves: 37-58-3 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-23 ATS
Road Faves: 23-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 58-37-3 ATS
O/U: 72-76
Road Teams: 81-64-3 ATS
Home Teams: 64-81-3 ATS
Favorites: 60-85-3 ATS
Underdogs: 85-60-3 ATS
Home Faves: 37-58-3 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-23 ATS
Road Faves: 23-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 58-37-3 ATS
O/U: 72-76
TNF - Steelers at Browns
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
Following an 0-3 start and a season that looked like it was going nowhere, the Steelers (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) have fought back to get back into the AFC Wild Card race. Pittsburgh is doing all of this after getting rid of Le?Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the offseason, while franchise cornerstone Ben Roethlisberger sustained a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2. The Steelers finished off a three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 with an impressive underdog win over the defending NFC champions Rams, 17-12.
Not only did Pittsburgh cash outright as four-point underdogs, but the Steelers limited their fourth opponent in the last six games to 17 points or fewer. The 17 points the Steelers scored last Sunday were their fewest since the Week 1 blowout loss to New England, but quarterback Mason Rudolph connected with former Oklahoma State teammate James Washington on a three-yard score late in the first quarter. The go-ahead touchdown came from September acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick, as the ex-Dolphins? safety recovered a Jared Goff fumble and returned it for a score to help Pittsburgh win its fourth home game of the season.
The expectations in Cleveland were sky-high at least for the Browns (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) when the season began as being the 2019 AFC North champions. The Browns have a long way to go to catch the division-leading Ravens and are on the outside of the Wild Card race following a 2-6 start, but Cleveland ended its four-game skid in a not-so-pretty 19-16 home victory over Buffalo on Sunday. Cleveland pushed as three-point favorites, but the Browns finally picked up their first win at FirstEnergy Stadium since Week 16 of 2018 against Cincinnati.
In spite of getting stopped six times (SIX TIMES!) from the two-yard line on one drive in the first half, the Browns rallied from a 16-12 deficit thanks to a Baker Mayfield touchdown strike to Rashard Higgins with under two minutes remaining. It was the only catch of the day for Higgins, a fifth round pick out of Colorado State in 2016, but it marked the first time this season Mayfield threw multiple touchdown passes in a game. Running back Nick Chubb eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the third time in four weeks with 116 yards, while Kareem Hunt posted 30 rushing yards in his Cleveland debut following an eight-game suspension.
DOG DAYS
The Steelers head into the Dawg Pound as one of the better underdog teams in the NFL by owning a 4-1 ATS mark when receiving points this season. Rewinding back to the start of the 2018 campaign, Mike Tomlin?s squad has put together an impressive 10-1 ATS record in the ?dog role, including six outright wins. Pittsburgh hasn?t hit the highway in over a month as the Steelers tripped up the Chargers with third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges, 24-17 as six-point ?dogs in Week 6.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
Amazingly, the Steelers are on in primetime for the fifth time this season and have won in the past three appearances. Dating back to 2016, Pittsburgh has posted a 6-1 record in its last seven road primetime contests with the only defeat coming at New England in Week 1 this season on a Sunday night. Cleveland is making its fourth appearance in primetime this season as the Browns routed the Jets in Week 2 before losing to the Rams and 49ers as an underdog.
TAKE THE THURSDAY NIGHT POINTS AND RUN
Underdogs through the first 10 Thursday night contests this season own a magnificent 8-2 ATS mark, capped off by the Raiders (+1 ?) edging the Chargers last week, 26-24. Amazingly, not one single-digit home favorite on Thursday night has covered the spread (0-4 ATS), as the last home chalk to cash on a Thursday was the Patriots back in Week 6 against the Giants as 17-point favorites in a 35-14 blowout.
SERIES HISTORY
The Browns last defeated the Steelers in Week 6 of the 2014 season, 31-10 as 2 ?-point home favorites. Pittsburgh has put together a 7-0-1 record the last eight matchups with Cleveland, as the two AFC North rivals finished in a 21-21 tie in the 2018 season opener. The Browns rallied from a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, but neither team could take the final lead in the extra 10 minutes, as Cleveland cashed in the role of a home underdog.
Tyrod Taylor started the opener against Pittsburgh, but Mayfield faced the Steelers the second time around at Heinz Field in Week 8 as the Steelers routed the Browns, 33-18 as 8 ?-point favorites. Steelers? running back James Conner ran all over the Browns in both meetings, which included a 135-yard effort at Cleveland and 146 yards in the home matchup, while finding the end zone twice in each game.
TOTAL TALK
The Steelers have watched the ?under? go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-0 mark on the road. Cleveland has slightly leaned to the low side this season, producing a 5-4 mark through nine games. As of Wednesday, the total on this game is hovering between 40 and 41 points at most betting shops.
Chris David offered up his thoughts on the total for this primetime matchup and bettors should be aware that the ?over? has now cashed in the last six games played in that nationally televised spots under the lights.
He said, ?This isn?t an easy total to handicap and you could certainly argue both ways. For starters, this series has watched the ?over? go 4-2 over the last three seasons and that includes a run of three straight tickets to the high side. The one consistent factor during this run has been Pittsburgh, who averaged 25.6 PPG. With that being said, this isn?t the same the Steelers offense that we?re used to and you could toss out the aforementioned numbers.?
?From a current form standpoint, neither team has been a juggernaut this season. The Steelers have been held under 300 yards of total offense in four of their last five games and the one outlier was against the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Browns have averaged 343 YPG in their last three games but the offense has only mustered up 17 PPG. Cleveland is one of four teams in the league that has more field goals (16) than touchdowns (13) and all of those clubs boast a losing record,? added David.
David noted in last week?s Total Talk segment how divisional games produced a 19-10 (66%) record through the first six weeks of the season but the pendulum was swinging back. In the last four weeks, the ?over? has gone 10-5 in these games and that includes a 3-2 record in Week 10.
Despite the uptick in ?over? bets, he isn?t buying the high side in this divisional matchup. He explained, ?While it wouldn?t be my strongest lean, it?s hard not to play the ?under? in this game especially if the Steelers don?t have Conner available. Both teams are ranked in the bottom third in offensive efficiency and the Steelers have created plenty of turnovers, it?s impossible to handicap those. I believe we?ll see a tight game, something in the neighborhood of 20-17.?
HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson points out that in spite of Cleveland?s disappointing start, there is still light at the end of the tunnel, ?The remaining schedule is relatively promising with two games with the Steelers in the next three weeks plus two games with the Bengals and games with the Dolphins and Cardinals. Baltimore remains in Week 16 at home, but a strong finish to get to 9-7 and a possible Wild Card spot isn?t impossible as the stakes are high this week after the Browns finally finished off a close game for a win last week.?
The quarterback matchup pits a pair of players who shined in the Big 12, but Nelson notes things have changed for Mayfield and Rudolph on this level, ?Only Sam Darnold has a worse QB Rating than Mayfield among qualified starters this season but he actually has a slightly higher QBR than Rudolph. The quarterbacks faced off in the Big 12 as rivals with Mayfield?s Oklahoma team winning all three meetings vs. Rudolph and Oklahoma State. The 2017 meeting was a shootout with Oklahoma winning 62-52 in Stillwater, but they now lead two of the lower scoring teams in the NFL with the Steelers averaging 21.4 points per game and the Browns 26th in the league at 19.0 points per game.?
PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions ? Mason Rudolph (PIT)
Over 20 ? (-110)
Under 20 ? (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes ? Mason Rudolph (PIT)
Over 1 ? (+140)
Under 1 ? (-160)
Total Receiving Yards ? Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)
Over 54 ? (-110)
Under 54 ? (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards ? Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Over 245 ? (-110)
Under 245 ? (-110)
Total Rushing Yards ? Nick Chubb (CLE)
Over 85 ? (-110)
Under 85 ? (-110)
Total Receiving Yards ? Odell Beckham, Jr. (CLE)
Over 70 ? (-110)
Under 70 ? (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
There hasn?t been much movement in terms of the side on this game, which opened with Cleveland at -2 ? (-120) at Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. The Westgate pushed the Browns up to -3 (EVEN), while other books have remained with the Browns at -2 ? (-120).
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
Following an 0-3 start and a season that looked like it was going nowhere, the Steelers (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) have fought back to get back into the AFC Wild Card race. Pittsburgh is doing all of this after getting rid of Le?Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the offseason, while franchise cornerstone Ben Roethlisberger sustained a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2. The Steelers finished off a three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 with an impressive underdog win over the defending NFC champions Rams, 17-12.
Not only did Pittsburgh cash outright as four-point underdogs, but the Steelers limited their fourth opponent in the last six games to 17 points or fewer. The 17 points the Steelers scored last Sunday were their fewest since the Week 1 blowout loss to New England, but quarterback Mason Rudolph connected with former Oklahoma State teammate James Washington on a three-yard score late in the first quarter. The go-ahead touchdown came from September acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick, as the ex-Dolphins? safety recovered a Jared Goff fumble and returned it for a score to help Pittsburgh win its fourth home game of the season.
The expectations in Cleveland were sky-high at least for the Browns (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) when the season began as being the 2019 AFC North champions. The Browns have a long way to go to catch the division-leading Ravens and are on the outside of the Wild Card race following a 2-6 start, but Cleveland ended its four-game skid in a not-so-pretty 19-16 home victory over Buffalo on Sunday. Cleveland pushed as three-point favorites, but the Browns finally picked up their first win at FirstEnergy Stadium since Week 16 of 2018 against Cincinnati.
In spite of getting stopped six times (SIX TIMES!) from the two-yard line on one drive in the first half, the Browns rallied from a 16-12 deficit thanks to a Baker Mayfield touchdown strike to Rashard Higgins with under two minutes remaining. It was the only catch of the day for Higgins, a fifth round pick out of Colorado State in 2016, but it marked the first time this season Mayfield threw multiple touchdown passes in a game. Running back Nick Chubb eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the third time in four weeks with 116 yards, while Kareem Hunt posted 30 rushing yards in his Cleveland debut following an eight-game suspension.
DOG DAYS
The Steelers head into the Dawg Pound as one of the better underdog teams in the NFL by owning a 4-1 ATS mark when receiving points this season. Rewinding back to the start of the 2018 campaign, Mike Tomlin?s squad has put together an impressive 10-1 ATS record in the ?dog role, including six outright wins. Pittsburgh hasn?t hit the highway in over a month as the Steelers tripped up the Chargers with third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges, 24-17 as six-point ?dogs in Week 6.
UNDER THE LIGHTS
Amazingly, the Steelers are on in primetime for the fifth time this season and have won in the past three appearances. Dating back to 2016, Pittsburgh has posted a 6-1 record in its last seven road primetime contests with the only defeat coming at New England in Week 1 this season on a Sunday night. Cleveland is making its fourth appearance in primetime this season as the Browns routed the Jets in Week 2 before losing to the Rams and 49ers as an underdog.
TAKE THE THURSDAY NIGHT POINTS AND RUN
Underdogs through the first 10 Thursday night contests this season own a magnificent 8-2 ATS mark, capped off by the Raiders (+1 ?) edging the Chargers last week, 26-24. Amazingly, not one single-digit home favorite on Thursday night has covered the spread (0-4 ATS), as the last home chalk to cash on a Thursday was the Patriots back in Week 6 against the Giants as 17-point favorites in a 35-14 blowout.
SERIES HISTORY
The Browns last defeated the Steelers in Week 6 of the 2014 season, 31-10 as 2 ?-point home favorites. Pittsburgh has put together a 7-0-1 record the last eight matchups with Cleveland, as the two AFC North rivals finished in a 21-21 tie in the 2018 season opener. The Browns rallied from a 21-7 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime, but neither team could take the final lead in the extra 10 minutes, as Cleveland cashed in the role of a home underdog.
Tyrod Taylor started the opener against Pittsburgh, but Mayfield faced the Steelers the second time around at Heinz Field in Week 8 as the Steelers routed the Browns, 33-18 as 8 ?-point favorites. Steelers? running back James Conner ran all over the Browns in both meetings, which included a 135-yard effort at Cleveland and 146 yards in the home matchup, while finding the end zone twice in each game.
TOTAL TALK
The Steelers have watched the ?under? go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-0 mark on the road. Cleveland has slightly leaned to the low side this season, producing a 5-4 mark through nine games. As of Wednesday, the total on this game is hovering between 40 and 41 points at most betting shops.
Chris David offered up his thoughts on the total for this primetime matchup and bettors should be aware that the ?over? has now cashed in the last six games played in that nationally televised spots under the lights.
He said, ?This isn?t an easy total to handicap and you could certainly argue both ways. For starters, this series has watched the ?over? go 4-2 over the last three seasons and that includes a run of three straight tickets to the high side. The one consistent factor during this run has been Pittsburgh, who averaged 25.6 PPG. With that being said, this isn?t the same the Steelers offense that we?re used to and you could toss out the aforementioned numbers.?
?From a current form standpoint, neither team has been a juggernaut this season. The Steelers have been held under 300 yards of total offense in four of their last five games and the one outlier was against the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Browns have averaged 343 YPG in their last three games but the offense has only mustered up 17 PPG. Cleveland is one of four teams in the league that has more field goals (16) than touchdowns (13) and all of those clubs boast a losing record,? added David.
David noted in last week?s Total Talk segment how divisional games produced a 19-10 (66%) record through the first six weeks of the season but the pendulum was swinging back. In the last four weeks, the ?over? has gone 10-5 in these games and that includes a 3-2 record in Week 10.
Despite the uptick in ?over? bets, he isn?t buying the high side in this divisional matchup. He explained, ?While it wouldn?t be my strongest lean, it?s hard not to play the ?under? in this game especially if the Steelers don?t have Conner available. Both teams are ranked in the bottom third in offensive efficiency and the Steelers have created plenty of turnovers, it?s impossible to handicap those. I believe we?ll see a tight game, something in the neighborhood of 20-17.?
HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson points out that in spite of Cleveland?s disappointing start, there is still light at the end of the tunnel, ?The remaining schedule is relatively promising with two games with the Steelers in the next three weeks plus two games with the Bengals and games with the Dolphins and Cardinals. Baltimore remains in Week 16 at home, but a strong finish to get to 9-7 and a possible Wild Card spot isn?t impossible as the stakes are high this week after the Browns finally finished off a close game for a win last week.?
The quarterback matchup pits a pair of players who shined in the Big 12, but Nelson notes things have changed for Mayfield and Rudolph on this level, ?Only Sam Darnold has a worse QB Rating than Mayfield among qualified starters this season but he actually has a slightly higher QBR than Rudolph. The quarterbacks faced off in the Big 12 as rivals with Mayfield?s Oklahoma team winning all three meetings vs. Rudolph and Oklahoma State. The 2017 meeting was a shootout with Oklahoma winning 62-52 in Stillwater, but they now lead two of the lower scoring teams in the NFL with the Steelers averaging 21.4 points per game and the Browns 26th in the league at 19.0 points per game.?
PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions ? Mason Rudolph (PIT)
Over 20 ? (-110)
Under 20 ? (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes ? Mason Rudolph (PIT)
Over 1 ? (+140)
Under 1 ? (-160)
Total Receiving Yards ? Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)
Over 54 ? (-110)
Under 54 ? (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards ? Baker Mayfield (CLE)
Over 245 ? (-110)
Under 245 ? (-110)
Total Rushing Yards ? Nick Chubb (CLE)
Over 85 ? (-110)
Under 85 ? (-110)
Total Receiving Yards ? Odell Beckham, Jr. (CLE)
Over 70 ? (-110)
Under 70 ? (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
There hasn?t been much movement in terms of the side on this game, which opened with Cleveland at -2 ? (-120) at Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. The Westgate pushed the Browns up to -3 (EVEN), while other books have remained with the Browns at -2 ? (-120).
by: Josh Inglis
BAND-AID ON THE RAMS O-LINE
Sometimes trying to find a play is like reverse engineering. Case in point: the Los Angeles Rams? offensive line is in shambles. They lost their starting right tackle and center last week and have had to rearrange the entire unit. Both of those linemen were PFF?s fourth-worst players at their position which may indicate how bad the reserves will be. The line had been brutal before the injuries as well, allowing the league?s fifth-fewest yards per rush (3.2) over the last three weeks but still managing nearly 300 yards through the air.
So, we have determined that the Ram?s rushing game has been bad over the last month and will most likely get worse in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears (No.5 defense in total DVOA) due to the addition of two replacement players. The Rams have had more success passing the ball which hopefully leads to a pass-heavy game plan from Sean McVay, especially if rushing yardage is hard to come by early on. Now we have to figure out which Rams running back will be affected the most.
Todd Gurley received 74 percent of the offensive snaps last week but saw just 12 carries and none in the fourth quarter despite playing on 11 of the team?s 17 fourth-quarter snaps. He has also only topped 52 yards rushing once since Week 3 and faces a Bears? defense that is allowing just 93 yards on 27 carries (3.44 yards per carry) over their last three games.
We are going to fade the Gurley-man and hope that McVay?s makeshift offensive line creates nothing for the running game. We are playing the Under 61.5 rushing yards and also the Under 15.5 carries on Gurley?s totals.
TWO TOP-5 DVOA DEFENSES
The variety of football prop bets makes wagering on games a unique experience. From quarterback rushing totals to longest field goals, bettors can tailor their interest level to which prop bets they prefer. One prop bet that is always plus money and can win on any single play throughout a game is the ?special team or defensive touchdown scored? prop.
With this bet, we need bad quarterback play and athletic defenses. We are looking at you Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky. Goff is tied for fourth with nine interceptions and fifth with nine fumbles as the QB has been anything but protective of the pigskin.
Trubisky is in a great spot to implode after playing his best game of the year last week. Although the Chicago QB doesn?t turn the ball over with the regularity that Goff does, Trubisky does take a lot of punishment as he has been sacked 12 times over the last three weeks. A Rams? defense that has scored a defensive TD in two of their last three could certainly take advantage of Chicago?s sack problems.
Take the special team or defensive TD scored at +200 and cheer on the fourth- and fifth-ranked DVOA defenses.
TINKER BELL
Betting on the Jets is not recommended. Gang Green made backers sweat for their money but still pulled off the win as three-point dogs last week. One thing that stood out was how ineffective Le'Veon Bell was with his 18 touches. The RB?s longest run of the day was FOUR YARDS. That?s against a league-average run defense. Looking back over his last three games, Bell?s longest carry is 14 yards on a third and 22. Next to that, the longest is seven yards.
The Jets? O-line will also be without their starting right guard and may be without center Ryan Kalil who is questionable versus Washington and their middle-of-the-pack rush defense. The Skins have allowed 140 yards rushing a game over their last three, but that may help us get a bigger number for Bell?s rushing total.
We are 0-2 on Bell prop bets this year so he owes us one. Take the Under 69.5 yards rushing which is a total that Bell is 1-8 O/U on the year.
BETTING ON BAKER BOMBING
Thursday?s matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns gives us one of the lowest totals of the week at 40.5, after opening at 41. A quick look at the matchups shows us that these are two very poor offenses. Both teams are bottom-10 DVOA offenses, both are bottom-six in red zone offense, and both are bottom-ten at converting on third and short and third and medium.
Pittsburgh is a dominant top-3 total DVOA defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards over the last three weeks while the Browns? offense has gone over 19 points just once in their last five games and that was against the Seahawks? 27th-ranked defense.
Our Thursday night play is cheering against a losing franchise that hasn?t put two wins together all year. Take the Browns team total Under 21.5.
EARLY LINE FAVORITE
The Carolina Panthers played well in Lambeau last week. Yes, their defense can?t stop the run, but the offense moved the ball easily in cold and snowy conditions and their defensive front made timely stops but ultimately got hosed by the refs who bailed out Aaron Rodgers. This team can score as CMC could have a field day versus the Atlanta Falcons? 30th-ranked DVOA defense.
We know the Dirty Birds pulled off a big win on the road last week versus their divisional rivals, but make no mistake, this is still a bad team that is without their No.1 running back and their tight end who is second in the league in receiving yards.
The Falcons? defense is also in the bottom-five in points allowed per game, are allowing third downs to be converted at 50 percent, and have let opposing QBs put up 260 yards passing a game. Having five members of their secondary out or questionable will not their cause come Sunday.
We like Kyle Allen at home. Take the Panthers -5.5.
BAND-AID ON THE RAMS O-LINE
Sometimes trying to find a play is like reverse engineering. Case in point: the Los Angeles Rams? offensive line is in shambles. They lost their starting right tackle and center last week and have had to rearrange the entire unit. Both of those linemen were PFF?s fourth-worst players at their position which may indicate how bad the reserves will be. The line had been brutal before the injuries as well, allowing the league?s fifth-fewest yards per rush (3.2) over the last three weeks but still managing nearly 300 yards through the air.
So, we have determined that the Ram?s rushing game has been bad over the last month and will most likely get worse in Week 11 against the Chicago Bears (No.5 defense in total DVOA) due to the addition of two replacement players. The Rams have had more success passing the ball which hopefully leads to a pass-heavy game plan from Sean McVay, especially if rushing yardage is hard to come by early on. Now we have to figure out which Rams running back will be affected the most.
Todd Gurley received 74 percent of the offensive snaps last week but saw just 12 carries and none in the fourth quarter despite playing on 11 of the team?s 17 fourth-quarter snaps. He has also only topped 52 yards rushing once since Week 3 and faces a Bears? defense that is allowing just 93 yards on 27 carries (3.44 yards per carry) over their last three games.
We are going to fade the Gurley-man and hope that McVay?s makeshift offensive line creates nothing for the running game. We are playing the Under 61.5 rushing yards and also the Under 15.5 carries on Gurley?s totals.
TWO TOP-5 DVOA DEFENSES
The variety of football prop bets makes wagering on games a unique experience. From quarterback rushing totals to longest field goals, bettors can tailor their interest level to which prop bets they prefer. One prop bet that is always plus money and can win on any single play throughout a game is the ?special team or defensive touchdown scored? prop.
With this bet, we need bad quarterback play and athletic defenses. We are looking at you Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky. Goff is tied for fourth with nine interceptions and fifth with nine fumbles as the QB has been anything but protective of the pigskin.
Trubisky is in a great spot to implode after playing his best game of the year last week. Although the Chicago QB doesn?t turn the ball over with the regularity that Goff does, Trubisky does take a lot of punishment as he has been sacked 12 times over the last three weeks. A Rams? defense that has scored a defensive TD in two of their last three could certainly take advantage of Chicago?s sack problems.
Take the special team or defensive TD scored at +200 and cheer on the fourth- and fifth-ranked DVOA defenses.
TINKER BELL
Betting on the Jets is not recommended. Gang Green made backers sweat for their money but still pulled off the win as three-point dogs last week. One thing that stood out was how ineffective Le'Veon Bell was with his 18 touches. The RB?s longest run of the day was FOUR YARDS. That?s against a league-average run defense. Looking back over his last three games, Bell?s longest carry is 14 yards on a third and 22. Next to that, the longest is seven yards.
The Jets? O-line will also be without their starting right guard and may be without center Ryan Kalil who is questionable versus Washington and their middle-of-the-pack rush defense. The Skins have allowed 140 yards rushing a game over their last three, but that may help us get a bigger number for Bell?s rushing total.
We are 0-2 on Bell prop bets this year so he owes us one. Take the Under 69.5 yards rushing which is a total that Bell is 1-8 O/U on the year.
BETTING ON BAKER BOMBING
Thursday?s matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns gives us one of the lowest totals of the week at 40.5, after opening at 41. A quick look at the matchups shows us that these are two very poor offenses. Both teams are bottom-10 DVOA offenses, both are bottom-six in red zone offense, and both are bottom-ten at converting on third and short and third and medium.
Pittsburgh is a dominant top-3 total DVOA defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards over the last three weeks while the Browns? offense has gone over 19 points just once in their last five games and that was against the Seahawks? 27th-ranked defense.
Our Thursday night play is cheering against a losing franchise that hasn?t put two wins together all year. Take the Browns team total Under 21.5.
EARLY LINE FAVORITE
The Carolina Panthers played well in Lambeau last week. Yes, their defense can?t stop the run, but the offense moved the ball easily in cold and snowy conditions and their defensive front made timely stops but ultimately got hosed by the refs who bailed out Aaron Rodgers. This team can score as CMC could have a field day versus the Atlanta Falcons? 30th-ranked DVOA defense.
We know the Dirty Birds pulled off a big win on the road last week versus their divisional rivals, but make no mistake, this is still a bad team that is without their No.1 running back and their tight end who is second in the league in receiving yards.
The Falcons? defense is also in the bottom-five in points allowed per game, are allowing third downs to be converted at 50 percent, and have let opposing QBs put up 260 yards passing a game. Having five members of their secondary out or questionable will not their cause come Sunday.
We like Kyle Allen at home. Take the Panthers -5.5.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 20,851
- 33
- 48
NFL's Top Over Teams:
1. Bucs 6-2 O/U
2. Chiefs 6-3 O/U
t3. Ravens 6-3 O/U
t3. Panthers 6-3 O/U
t3. Cowboys 6-3 O/U
t3. Lions 6-3 O/U
t3. Raiders 6-3 O/U
t8. Cards, Giants, Seahawks 6-4 O/U
NFL's Top Under Teams:
1. Bills 7-2 U/O
2. Chargers 7-3 U/O
t3. Falcons 6-3 U/O
t3. Bears100 6-3
t3. Bengals 6-3
t3. Broncos 6-3
t3. Rams 6-3
t3. Dolphins 6-3
t3. Patriots 6-3
t3. Steelers 6-3
t3. Redskins 6-3
1. Bucs 6-2 O/U
2. Chiefs 6-3 O/U
t3. Ravens 6-3 O/U
t3. Panthers 6-3 O/U
t3. Cowboys 6-3 O/U
t3. Lions 6-3 O/U
t3. Raiders 6-3 O/U
t8. Cards, Giants, Seahawks 6-4 O/U
NFL's Top Under Teams:
1. Bills 7-2 U/O
2. Chargers 7-3 U/O
t3. Falcons 6-3 U/O
t3. Bears100 6-3
t3. Bengals 6-3
t3. Broncos 6-3
t3. Rams 6-3
t3. Dolphins 6-3
t3. Patriots 6-3
t3. Steelers 6-3
t3. Redskins 6-3
NFL NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................22-26-1.........45.83%..........-33.00
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BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................11 - 9............+5.50.............8 - 14..............-47.00.............-41.50
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NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
11/14/2019.............0-2-0............0.00%.........-11.00
11/11/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/10/2019...........7-11-1..........38.89%.........-25.50
11/07/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/04/2019.............1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
11/03/2019..........12-10-0..........54.55%..........+5.00
Totals...................22-26-1.........45.83%..........-33.00
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BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
11/14/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2019..............0 - 1............-5.50..............1 - 0...............+5.00.............-0.50
11/10/2019..............4 - 4............-2.00..............2 - 6...............-23.00............-25.00
11/07/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/04/2019..............1 - 0............+5.00.............0 - 1...............-5.50..............-0.50
11/03/2019..............5 - 3............+8.50.............3 - 5...............-12.50.............-4.00
Totals.....................11 - 9............+5.50.............8 - 14..............-47.00.............-41.50
*******************************
NFL SEPT./ OCTOBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS
Totals............108-93-1.......... 53.73%........... +28.50
BEST BETS:
DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS
Totals..................55 - 51............-0.00................52 - 42 ..........+33.00............+33.00
