CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Dec. 17

L.A. CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS
Bolts no wins or covers six of last seven this season, though broke losing streak last week vs. Falcs.
Raiders have won and covered last three meetings, though went to last play on Nov. 8 at So Fi, and have dropped last three vs. line in 2020.
Vegas 9-3-1 ?over? this season.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals" trends.


Saturday, Dec. 19

BUFFALO at DENVER
Into last Sunday night vs. Steelers, Bills were on four straight covers after win vs. 49ers, also now 8-3-1 ?over? this season.
Denver 13-7 last 20 as dog, also ?under? 4-1 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bills, based on recent trends.

CAROLINA at GREEN BAY
Panthers have been tough on road, covered last four away, all as dog.
Rhule 7-1 last 8 as dog in 2020.

Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.


Sunday, Dec. 20

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS

Indy has covered only 1 of last 4 at Lucas Oil.
Colts, however, have won and covered last five meetings.

Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on series trends.

DETROIT at TENNESSEE
Titans now ?over? 9-3 last 12 in 2020 and ?over? 20-6 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid 2019.
Lions ?over? 8-4-1 this season.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA
Series has gone ?over? last four and 7 of last 8 meetings.
Bucs ?over? 18-10-1 for Arians since LY.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Dolphins have won 7 and covered 8 of last 8 this season, and looking back to early 2019 are now 19-6 vs. line last 25 for Flores.
Miami also ?under? 8-5 in 2020, Belichick ?under? 9-4 after Rams game.
Patriots 2-5 vs. spread away TY.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and Dolphins, based on ?totals? and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS
Cowboys got rare win last week at Cincy but still miserable 3-10 vs. line TY.
Niners 4-2 vs. spread on road in 2020, now 10-4 vs. spread as visitor since LY.

Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at WASHINGTON
WFT has won and covered last four in 2020, also ?under? 6-2-1 last nine in 2020.
Hawks no covers 4 of last 6 or 6 of last 9 in 2020.
Seattle also ?under? 5-0 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Football Team and ?under,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA
Bears broke 6-game SU skid last week vs. Texans, but still just 1-4 vs. line last five TY.
?Unders? 5-2 last seven meetings including Nov. 16 at Soldier Field on a Monday.
Chicago on 25-11 ?under? run since late 2018.
Vikes, however, ?over? 8-4-1 this season, though just 2-5 vs. spread at US Bank.

Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on series trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE
Jags no outright wins since opening week but have covered 4 of last 6 TY.
Jags also 6-3 ?under? last nine.
Ravens 3-3 vs. line at home TY, and 1-1-1 laying DD.

Tech Edge: Slight to ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

N.Y. JETS at L.A. RAMS
Jets still winless SU but have covered 4 of last 7 TY.
Rams 0-1 as DD chalk TY, though McVay had covered previous six in role since 2017.
Rams ?under? 9-4 in 2020 after Patriots game.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA
Both broke recent skids last week, as Cards had failed to cover previous five.
Eagles just 4-9 vs. line previous 13, before each got wins and covers last week.
Philly ?under? 6-1 last seven TY, Cards ?under? 8-4-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

KANSAS CITY at NEW ORLEANS
Super Bowl preview? Chiefs still winning outright lately but no covers last five in 2020.
Saints ?under? 5-1 last six in 2020.
NO 5-1 SU and vs. line last six this season.

Tech Edge: Saints and ?under,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.

CLEVELAND at N.Y. GIANTS
G-Men have won four of last five outright and 7-2-1 last ten vs. spread in 2020.
NY ?under? 9-3-1 this season.
Into Ravens on Monday, Brownies had only covered 1 of 6 prior to win at Titans last week.

Tech Edge: Giants and ?under,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.


Monday, Dec. 21

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
Steel 10-0 SU, 7-2-1 vs. spread last ten reg season meetings vs. Cincy.
?Unders? last five and 7-1-1 last eight meetings.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and Steelers, based on series trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 15

Thursday?s game
LA Chargers (4-9) @ Las Vegas (7-6)
? Chargers snapped a 5-game skid with their last-second win last week.
? Bolts are 1-5 SU on road, beating Bengals 16-13 in Week 1.
? Last four games, Charger were outscored 79-23 in first half.
? Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
? Last three Charger games stayed under the total.
? Last week was first time in ten games Chargers gave up fewer than 27 points.

? Raiders fired their DC after last week?s 44-27 loss to Indy.
? Las Vegas lost three of last four games, giving up 35-43-28-44 points.
? Raiders are 2-4 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
? Raiders turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-6)
? Las Vegas is 3-2 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
? Over is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
? Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 15 TD?s on 40 drives.

? Raiders (-1) beat Chargers 31-26 in Week 9, at SoFi Field.
? Chargers outgained Las Vegas, 440-320, but scored only 16 points on four red zone drives.
? Raiders won last three series games, by 2-7-5 points.



*********************************


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAC at LV 08:20 PM

LAC +3.5

U 51.5

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........30-30-1......50.00%....-15.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack
Spreads on some of the early bowl games:

? North Texas (-19) vs Appalachian State (Myrtle Beach Bowl)

? Tulane (-3) vs Nevada (Idaho Potato Bowl)

? BYU (-3.5) vs Central Florida (Boca Raton Bowl)

? Louisiana Tech (-4.5) vs Georgia Southern (New Orleans Bowl)

? Florida Atlantic (-10) vs Memphis (Montgomery Bowl)

? Georgia State (-5) vs Western Kentucky (First Responder Bowl)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 314,572
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?Seven straight SEC wins. Some schools ain?t even playing seven games. I don?t care what league you?re in. If you?re gonna pick the best four teams, we?re one of them.?
Texas A&M football coach Jimbo Fisher

Sunday?s quiz
Who was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title?

Saturday?s quiz
Alvin Gentry was coach of the Phoenix Suns last time they made the playoffs, in 2010.

Friday?s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.

*********************

Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Bills 48, Denver 19
? Bills win AFC East for first time in 25 years.
? Buffalo won seven of its last eight games, covered last six.
? Bills outscored last five opponents 104-52 in first half.
? Diggs/Beasley both had 100+ receiving yards for Buffalo

? Denver lost seven of its last nine games.
? Broncos lost five of their seven home games.
? Denver turned ball over 19 times (-11) in their last nine games.
? Broncos were outgained, 534-255.

12) Green Bay 24, Panthers 16:
? Carolina lost eight of its last nine games overall.
? Panthers are 4-10 despite a +4 turnover ratio.
? Panthers covered their last six games as road underdogs.
? Carolina is 0-10 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

? Packers? first three drives: 27 plays, 203 yards, 21 points.
? Green Bay won six of last seven games, scoring 31.0 ppg in last five.
? Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games.
? Packers were outscored in second half in 9 of their last 11 games.

11) San Jose State 34, Boise State 20:
? Brent Brennan has done one of the best coaching jobs in the history of man; two years ago, San Jose went 1-11. Now they?re Mountain West champs.

? Spartans finish regular season 7-0, their best record since 1939.
? All seven of San Jose?s wins are by 10+ points.

10) Clemson 34, Notre Dame 10:
? Tigers outgained Notre Dame, 541-263; this wasn?t very interesting.
? Etienne carried the ball 10 times for 124 yards.
? Now the playoff selection committee has the drama they crave; who gets the 4th bid?

9) LSU 53, Ole Miss 48:
? LSU receiver Kayshon Boutte caught 14 passes for 308 yards, three TD?s.
? Ole Miss QB Corral threw for 251 yards, ran for 158 more, but threw five INT?s.
? How do you turn the ball over six times and still score 48 points?
? LSU QB Johnson threw for 435 yards, three TD?s.

8) Utah 45, Washington State 28:
? Coogs (+11) led 28-7 at halftime, didn?t even cover the spread.

7) Gonzaga 99, Iowa 88:
? Zags spanked Iowa; this was their first game in 17 days.
? Gonzaga was minus-6 in turnovers, made only 14-24 on line, still scored 99 points.
? Iowa G Connor McCaffery is the coach?s son; he?s played 156:00 in seven games, has taken a total of 19 shots- you don?t have to guard him much.

6) Western Kentucky 73, Alabama 71:
? Big man Bassey had 27 points, 12 boards; why is he playing in Conference USA?
? Hilltoppers are 6-2, with three top 80 wins- they?re #43 in experience.
? 46.7% of Alabama?s shots are 3?s, but they?re only making 29.3% of them (#254).

5) North Carolina 75, Kentucky 63:
? Kentucky is 1-5 for first time since 1927.
? Wildcats played 7 freshmen, a soph, two seniors; they?re #324 in continuity.
? Teams combined to shoot 8-33 on the arc.
? Kentucky was up 11 early in this game, led by 4 at the half, died down the stretch.

4) Ohio State 77, UCLA 70:
? OSU outscored the Bruins 29-16 over final 12:40 of this game.
? Buckeyes shot 60.7% inside the arc.
? UCLA is playing a Cronin-like #343 pace; the locals ain?t going to like that, especially when you lose the more visible games, like this one.

3) Iona 72, Rider 64:
? Rick Pitino?s Gaels are off to a 3-1 start in the MAAC.
? Iona has given up only 57.1 ppg in their league games.
? Iona has a new coach, all new players (#265 in continuity) but he is a great coach.

2) Stanford 78, Arizona 75:
? Arizona made 11-23 on the arc, only 12-23 on foul line.
? Arizona has an almost whole new team (continuity #307).
? Stanford, on the other hand, is #32 in continuity.

1) Big college football news around 11pm; the Rose Bowl is relocating from Pasadena to Arlington, TX. Rose Bowl is also one of the semi-finals in the playoffs.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +6.5
O 43.5

TB at ATL 01:00 PM
TB -6.5
U 49.5

CHI at MIN 01:00 PM
CHI +2.5
U 47.0

JAC at BAL 01:00 PM
JAC +13.0
O 48.0

HOU at IND 01:00 PM
IND -7.5
U 51.0

NE at MIA 01:00 PM
NE +1.0
O 41.5

SF at DAL 01:00 PM
DAL +3.0
U 45.0

NYJ at LAR 04:05 PM
LAR -17.5
U 43.5

PHI at ARI 04:05 PM
PHI +6.5
U 49.5

KC at NO 04:25 PM
KC -2.5
O 52.5

CLE at NYG 08:20 PM
NYG +6.5
U 44.0

 

[Cnotes53]

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........39-43-1......47.56%....-41.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack
Interesting Week 16 NFL spreads:
? Minnesota @ New Orleans (-7.5)
? Tampa Bay (-8) @ Detroit
? San Francisco @ Arizona (-3.5)
? Miami (-2.5) @ Las Vegas
? Denver @ LA Chargers (-3)
? Cleveland (-10) @ NJ Jets

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 316,013
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?This is one of those disappointing wins the way that we played in the second half. So I have a sour taste in my mouth how we played in the second half. We?ve got to get back to the drawing board. That kind of football is not going to beat a lot of teams.?
Aaron Rodgers

Monday?s quiz
When was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record?

Sunday?s quiz
Florida State was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title, in 2014.

Saturday?s quiz
Alvin Gentry was coach of the Phoenix Suns last time they made the playoffs, in 2010.

*****************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Indianapolis 27, Texans 20:
? WR Coutee fumbled on Colts? 1-yard line in last minute.
? Texans in red zone: 4 drives, 13 points. Indy: 4 drives, 24 points.
? Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
? Texans? last five drives: 50 plays, 363 yards, 2 TDs, 2 FGs, one fumble.

? Colts won seven of their last nine games overall.
? Indy/Tennessee are tied for first in AFC South.
? Indianapolis won seven of last nine series games.
? Last five games, Colts outscored opponents 92-33 in 2nd half.

Tennessee 46, Lions 25:
? Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
? Detroit allowed 27+ points in seven of its last eight games.
? Detroit scored 27.0 ppg the last four weeks.
? Six of last eight Lion games went over the total.

? Titans converted nine of 11 third down plays.
? Tennessee won four of last five games, is tied for first in AFC South.
? First three drives: 21 plays, 243 yards, three TD?s.
? Last three drives: 25 plays, 160 yards, three TD?s.

Buccaneers 31, Atlanta 27
? Buccaneers trailed this game 17-0 at halftime.
? Bucs? first three drives in third quarter: 22 plays, 231 yards, three TD?s.
? Last five games, Bucs converted 29-60 third down plays.
? Bucs won last four road games, scoring 37.0 ppg.

? Falcons lost four of their last five games.
? Atlanta lost six of its eight home games.
? Atlanta led seven of its last nine games at halftime.
? Falcons? last five drives: 19 plays, 33 yards, 3 points.

Miami 22, Patriots 12:
? New England misses playoffs for first time since 2008.
? Last two Patriot games: no TD?s, five FG?s on 19 drives.
? New England lost five of its last seven visits to Miami.
? Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.

? Dolphins won eight of their last ten games.
? Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.
? Miami is 9-1-2 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
? Dolphins have 16 takeaways in last seven games (+9)

Seahawks 20, Washington 15:
? Seattle won four of its last five games overall.
? Seahawks take over first place in NFC West.
? Last five games, Seahawks outscored foes 71-21 in first half.
? Last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
? Seahawks won field position by ten yards.

? Backup QB Haskins was 38-55/295 passing; he is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
? Loss snaps Washington?s four-game win streak.
? Washington outscored last seven opponents 120-37 in second half.
? Washington converted 10-17 third down plays, outgained Seattle 353-302.

Bears 33, Minnesota 27
? Bears ran for 199 yards, scored seven of nine times they had ball.
? Last four games, Chicago scored 31.0 ppg.
? Bears won field position by 13 yards in this game.
? Bears won five of their last six games with Minnesota.

? Vikings split last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
? Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last four games.
? Vikings won field position in only one game so far this year (1-12-1)
? Minnesota is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite TY.
? Seven of eight Viking home games went over the total.

Baltimore 40, Jaguars 14
? Jaguars lost their last 13 games; they?re now in line for #1 pick in draft.
? Last four weeks, Jacksonville gave up 190 rushing yards/game.
? On first series, Jaguars picked off pass on 1-yard line, then gave up a safety on offense.
? Jacksonville in first half: 5 drives, 61 yards, outscored 2-0 by Ravens? defense.

? Baltimore won last three games, scoring 34-47-40 points.
? On their first eight drives, Ravens scored 5 TD?s, tried 2 FG?s.
? Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
? Over is 4-1 in Baltimore?s last five games.

Arizona 33, Eagles 26:
? Eagles lost five of last six games; they?re 1-6 SU on road.
? Philly is 2-7-1 SU outside their division.
? Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-9-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Eagles trailed 16-0 after first quarter, would?ve led had they not failed on 2-point plays when it was 26-20/26-26.

? Cardinals drove 86 yards for game-winning TD with 7:17 left.
? Arizona has a one-game lead for the #7-seed (last playoff spot)
? Murray threw ball for 406 yards, three TD?s.
? Hopkins caught nine passes for 169 yards.

NJ Jets 23, Rams 20
? Jets scored TD on first drive of each half.
? Jets scored on first drive in their last eight games, best in NFL.
? Jets blocked punt in 2nd quarter, started drives on LA?s 27/22-yard line.
? Third down conversions: Jets 7-17, Rams 2-11.

? Rams fall out of first place in NFC West.
? LA?s first six series: 23 plays, 68 yards, zero points.
? Rams lost three of four games vs AFC East this year.
? LA had only two plays that gained 20+ yards.

Chiefs 32, New Orleans 29:
? Chiefs won their last nine games, are 0-5-1 ATS in last six.
? Kansas City won all eight of its road games this year (3-4-1 ATS)
? Chiefs outgained Saints 411-285; they had 34 first downs, Saints 15.
? Last six games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg.

? New Orleans lost its last two games, both by 3 points.
? Saints ran only 52 plays; Chiefs ran 92 plays.
? Third down conversions: Chiefs 9-18, Saints 1-11.
? Saints scored only once on seven first half drives.

Dallas 41, 49ers 33:
? 49ers lost six of their last seven games SU.
? SF is 5-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn?t play.
? Last seven games, SF was outscored 101-55 in first half.
? 49ers are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a favorite away from home.

? Dallas was outgained 458-291, but was +4 in turnovers.
? Cowboys won field position by 17 yards.
? Dallas was leading at halftime in five of last seven games.
? Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PIT at CIN 08:15 PM

CIN +14.5

U 40.5

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals..........40-44-1......47.61%....-42.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack
Interesting Week 16 NFL spreads:
? Cincinnati @ Houston (-9)
? Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)
? Chicago (-7.5) @ Jacksonville
? Carolina @ Washington (-2.5)
? NJ Giants @ Baltimore (-10)
? Atlanta @ Kansas City (-10.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 319,086
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I think I?ve always said that it?s sort of the manifest destiny of the league that you expand at some point. I?d say it?s caused us to maybe dust off some of the analyses on the economic and competitive impacts of expansion. We?ve been putting a little bit more time into it than we were pre-pandemic. But certainly not to the point that expansion is on the front burner.?
NBA commissioner Adam Silver

Tuesday?s quiz
In the baseball movie For Love of the Game, where Kevin Costner is a pitcher for the Tigers, what veteran actor plays his catcher?

Monday?s quiz
2015 was the last time an NFL team made the playoffs with a losing record; Carolina Panthers won the NFC South, with a 7-8-1 record.

Sunday?s quiz
Florida State was the last football team other than Clemson to win the ACC title, in 2014.

**************************

Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??.

13) Its never fun to lose your job, but losing it four days before Christmas as to be especially bad; Carolina Panthers fired GM Marty Hurney Monday- the teams wants someone who is more analytical and data-driven to be their GM.

12) Detroit Lions fired special teams coach Brayden Coombs Monday; apparently he called a fake punt Sunday without consulting any of the other coaches. When you do that, the play damn well better work, but it did not, and now Coombs is unemployed.

Lions trailed 32-18 when they faked the punt; game ended with Tennessee winning 46-25.

Coombs is son of Ohio State defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs, who was the defensive backs coach for the Titans last year.

11) Kentucky Wildcats are 1-5 so far this basketball season, their worst start since 1927; the last time a team got an at-large bid to the NCAAs after starting a season 1-5 or worse was 1999, when the Texas Longhorns went 19-13 (13-3 in Big X) in Rick Barnes? first year in Austin.

10) NHL will have a 56-game regular season, starting January 13.

NBA starts its regular season with two games Tuesday, a full slate of games Wednesday.

9) Was interesting to hear how some college teams have opted out of bowl games because their players just want to go home for the holidays. Kids have been in a routine since June/July where they have been tested for COVID three times a week, and isolated from their families.

8) Tennessee Vols? senior QB Jarrett Guarantano will transfer away from Knoxville; he got benched in favor of younger guys recently. Guarantano winds up with 6,174 yards passing, 38 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 41 games played for the Vols.

Guarantano has another year to play due to this year being a free year for all the players, it doesn?t count against their eligibility.

Speaking of Tennessee, they opted out of the Liberty Bowl because of COVID issues; Army takes their place and will play West Virginia in Memphis Saturday.

7) RIP to Hall of Fame linebacker Kevin Greene, who passed away Monday at age 58. Greene was a great player for the Steelers/Rams/Panthers. RIP, sir.

6) 9 of the 32 current NFL head coaches grew up in Pennsylvania, which seems like a lot.

5) Eagles coach Doug Pederson baffles me; he loves to go for two points when the Eagles score a TD, but trailing 16-0 in Arizona Sunday, Philly scores a TD and they kick the PAT instead of trying for a 2-point play that would?ve cut the lead in half. Go figure.

4) Anyone who tells you that Randy Moss was a better receiver than Jerry Rice is wrong, and this is coming from a Rams? fan who has no love for anything 49er-related. Rice was the best wide receiver ever, and he did it quietly. Nothing wrong with that.

3) Washington is only NFL team this season that hasn?t scored a point on their first drive of a game, but with two weeks left in the season, they lead the NFC East.

2) Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28:
? App State ran ball for 502 yards (12.9 yards/carry)
? Cameron Peoples ran ball 22 times for 319 yards.
? Both teams had 100+ yards in penalties.
? App State won its last six bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five.
? North Texas lost last four bowls, giving up 49.0 ppg.

1) Cincinnati 27, Steelers 17:
? Steelers were 11-0 at one point; now they?re 11-3.
? Last four games, Steelers scored 17 ppg.
? Pittsburgh threw ball for only 78 yards.
? Steelers are now one game ahead of Cleveland in AFC North.

? Cincinnati gets its first win over Steelers in last dozen tries.
? Bengals had lost previous five games overall by combined 124-50.
? Total yardage was 244-230 Bengals.
? Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS this season as a home underdog.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Jets +17 (ML +1000) at Rams, 23-20
Cowboys +4 (ML +170) vs. 49ers, 41-33
Chargers +3.5 (ML +155) at Raiders, 30-27 (OT)
Bears +3 (ML +130) at Vikings, 33-27

The largest favorites to cover

Ravens (-12.5) vs. Jaguars, 40-14
Titans (-8.5) vs. Lions, 45-26
Bills (-6) at Broncos, 48-19
Cardinals (-6) vs. Eagles, 33-26

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an 'under' ticket (49) in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Baltimore Ravens game, it was a gut-wrenching day from the jump.

The Ravens fired out to a 9-0 lead, much to the delight of side bettors laying the 13.5. Baltimore stepped on the gas even further, posting a 17-0 deficit in the second quarter to take a 26-0 lead into halftime. Under bettors were feeling very good about the Jaguars, as they were cooperating. Surely the scoring would drop off for the Ravens as they called off the dogs, right?

Well, kinda.

The Ravens did their part, managing just 14 points in the final 30 minutes. The Jaguars had just seven points until very late in the game. Baltimore lead 40-7 late into the fourth quarter, and past the two-minute warning. Under bettors were feeling very good...until 1:44 to go in the game, when the Jaguars had a QB Gardner Minshew to WR Chris Conley touchdown to make it 40-14. That's a tough way to lose your 'under' bet.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Going back to Thursday's game between the Los Angeles Chargers-Las Vegas Raiders, again, if you were an 'under' (52.5) bettors...ouch.

The first half started slow enough, as the Bolts posted a 7-3 lead after 15 minutes, and the 'under' (52.5) bettors were feeling good, as they were well on pace. The Chargers ended up taking a 17-10 lead into the break, and the 'over' was then trending. Under bettors were feeling slightly better, in a weird way, as QB David Carr (groin) ended up leaving the game for good in the first half. While nobody ever likes to see someone injured, it's usually good to see a backup coming in if you're an 'under' bettor.

However, backup QB Marcus Mariota led the comeback, erasing a 24-17 lead with a 2-yard diving run for the pylon with 6:16 to go in regulation. It was the only score in the final 17:08 of regulation. That meant overtime, and that's never a good thing for under bettors, either.

However, the Raiders chewed up a ton of clock before settling for a 23-yard field goal for PK Daniel Carlson with just 3:18 left in the extra session. If you were holding an under ticket you were still in good shape as long as the Vegas defense stepped up.

They didn't.

QB Justin Herbert stretched for the goal line and fumbled, with FB Gabe Nabers jumping on the loose ball in the end zone. By NFL rules, only the ball carrier can recover the fumble, so it was moved back to the spot of the fumble. That's something put in place due to the Ken Stabler "Holy Roller" play back in 1978 between these same franchises. The Raiders had a chance to recover the fumble, and win the game, which would have kept their playoff hopes alive. Herbert made good on his second chance, stretching for the touchdown, dashing the chances of the Raiders to make the postseason, and dashing the chances of the 'under' bettors, too.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 15 was the New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (40) game, and despite the exploits of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who scored a pair of rushing touchdowns, the game lived up to its defensive expectations. Under bettors got off to a tremendous start, as the teams battled to a scoreless draw after 15 minutes. The Patriots took a 6-0 lead into the break, and over bettors were already ripping up their tickets. We saw 18 total points in the fourth quarter, but the game still went well under with a 22-12 win by Miami, avenging a 21-11 loss in Foxboro in Week 1, also an 'under' result.

The highest total on the board was in the Detroit Lions-Tennessee Titans (54.5) game, and it was never really in doubt. Tennesse fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and they held a 24-15 lead at halftime, well more than halfway to the total. Under bettors were shaking their heads after just three points by the Lions in the third quarter, with just 42 total points on the board through 45 minutes. However, the Titans offense fired up in the fourth quarter with 22 points, and the Lions chipped in with seven, and when the dust settled we had a total of 71 points on the board. All of that worrying for nothing, as Tennesse prevailed 45-26.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, we covered that above in the Chargers-Raiders 'over' result. The Sunday night game wasn't as prolific, as the Cleveland Browns topped the New York Giants by a 20-6 score with a total of 45. So the 'over/under' is 1-1 with Monday's game pending between the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (40).

So far this season the under is 27-16 (62.8%) across 43 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 16

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The Vikings and Saints will square off on Christmas afternoon, and don't be surprised to see the Vikings actually a little like the Grinch. They were dropped 33-27 by the Chicago Bears at home in Week 15, all but ending their already bleak playoff aspirations. The Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot, were dropped at home by the Chiefs in Week 15, and they're on a two-game slide heading into this one. So which one of these teams will find coal in their stocking on Friday, and who will cover? The Vikings are on an 0-5 ATS slide, although they are 4-2 ATS in their six games on the road. The Saints are 5-1-1 ATS across the past seven, although 0-1-1 ATS during their two-game skid. The 'over' has hit in the past two for NOLA, as their offense is averaging 25.0 PPG while yielding 28.0 PPG.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The 49ers hit the "road" for Saturday's afternoon game. Due to COVID-19 strict restrictions in Santa Clara County, Calif., the Niners had already relocated to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. for the remainder of the season. Oddly enough, COVID runs more rampant in Arizona than California at the moment, but the government restrictions are much less. So the 49ers will move from the home locker room to the customary road locker room against the Cards. These teams met in Week 1, with Arizona coming away with a 24-20 win at Levi's Stadium as the 'under' connected. Those were halcyon times for Frisco, as they're now 1-6 SU/ATS across the past seven, including three straight losses. Arizona has positioned themselves well for a playoff spot, winning the past two, going 2-0 ATS in the past two after an 0-5 ATS slide.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Rams are the reason the Jets no longer have a goose egg in their win column. L.A. fought back in the fourth quarter, but came up just short in an embarrassing loss. It isn't quite crippling to their playoff hopes, but the NFC West title will require a win in this game for sure. All four NFC West teams are 2-2 against the division so far. The Rams won the first game 23-16 in Los Angeles as the 'under' cashed. Seattle is 2-0 SU over the past two, and 4-1 SU across the past five, although they're just 2-3 ATS. The 'under' is on a 6-0 run for Seattle. The under has been the rule for Los Angeles, too, as the under has cashed in nine of the past 11 games overall, too.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East on Saturday against the Denver Broncos, while the Patriots lost in Miami on Sunday to go 6-8 SU, officially snapping their consecutive streak of making the playoffs at 11 seasons. The Bills won 24-21 in Week 8 in the first meeting, although the Patriots did grab the cover. We'll find out a lot about the Patriots on Monday, as they play their first game with nothing actually at stake except for pride. One thing has been very consistent for the Patriots lately, as the 'under' has hit in six in a row.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Odds Week 16: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Aaron Rodgers aims to keep the Packers in the NFC's No. 1 playoff slot in a Week 16 Sunday night showdown against the Titans. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Green Bay a 4-point home favorite.

NFL Week 15 has one more game left, but NFL Week 16 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. Among the top matchups, the Tennessee Titans visit the Green Bay Packers, and the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 16 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

These are the current NFL Week 16 odds.

Vikings at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans dropped its last two games, falling just short at home in a 32-29 Sunday loss to Kansas City, and needs a Christmas Day win to stay ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South. Minnesota needs a win even worse after falling 33-27 at home to Chicago on Sunday, leaving the Vikes at 6-8 SU and clinging to playoff hopes.

"We opened Saints -7 and haven?t moved it," Murray said Sunday night. "There will be a lot of teaser and moneyline parlays this weekend starting with the Saints on Christmas Day. This could potentially be a big windfall for the books if the Vikings can go in there and get a win, the way they did in the wild-card round back in January. I won?t hold my breath. It seems like the Vikings have run out of steam."

Buccaneers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay dug itself a 24-7 third-quarter hole at Atlanta on Sunday, but that proved a familiar position for Tom Brady, and he got a familiar result. Brady and the Bucs rallied for a 31-27 victory. Detroit, meanwhile, got outscored 22-7 in the fourth quarter of a 46-25 loss at Tennessee.

The Bucs opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and are still there late Sunday night.

49ers at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona is in the seventh and final NFC playoff slot for the moment, but needs to keep winning to stay there. In Week 15, the Cards fended off Philadelphia 33-26. San Francisco lost at Dallas 41-33 and is now playing out the string in an injury-riddled season.

The SuperBook opened the Cardinals -3 and ticked to -3.5, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Dolphins at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami, coming off a 22-12 home win over New England, currently holds the seventh and final AFC playoff spot. Las Vegas fell to the L.A. Chargers 30-27 in the Week 15 Thursday nighter and has lost four of its last five, making this Saturday night game a must-win to stay in the playoff chase.

"We opened the Dolphins -2.5. This is a big game for them, as they are hanging on in the AFC playoff race, and the Raiders are basically finished," Murray said Sunday night, adding that Las Vegas likely won't have QB Derek Carr due to a groin injury. "We don?t anticipate seeing Carr out there again. Miami has been impressive, but the Dolphins are pretty banged up. We just feel the Raiders have too many guys out defensively to not be the underdogs here."

Broncos at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Both these teams are playing out the string in the AFC West. Los Angeles topped Las Vegas 30-27 in the Week 15 Thursday nighter, while Denver got belted by Buffalo 48-19 on Saturday night.

The Chargers opened -3 at The SuperBook and briefly visited -3.5, then returned to -3, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Browns at Jets Odds
Opening line
Jets +10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York is winless no longer, pulling off one of the season's biggest upsets in Week 15. The Jets went to Los Angeles as 17-point underdogs to the Rams and exited with a stunning 23-20 victory, moving to 1-13 SU (5-9 ATS). Cleveland remained in the thick of the AFC playoff race by stifling the New York Giants 20-6 on the road in the Sunday nighter.

The SuperBook opened the Browns -10, and that's where the line remains late Sunday night.

Bengals at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
These two teams have nothing but pride and draft position to play for in Week 16, although Cincinnati still has Week 15 work to do, hosting Pittsburgh in the Monday night game. Houston fell short at Indianapolis 27-20 in Week 15.

The Texans opened as 9-point favorites at The SuperBook, and that's where the line sits late Sunday night.

Colts at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There's plenty on the line in this tilt. Pittsburgh is at least hoping to maintain the No. 2 spot in the AFC and stay within striking distance of Kansas City for No. 1, while Indianapolis is currently No. 6, but is tied with AFC South rival Tennessee at 10-4.

Indy edged Houston 27-20 Sunday, while Pittsburgh plays in the Week 15 finale at Cincinnati on Monday night.

"We opened Steelers -2.5 (-110) and took a bet right away on the favorite that moved us to -2.5 (-120)," Murray said. "We aren?t quite ready to go to 3. We really don?t trust the Steelers, and we know wiseguys have loved betting on the Colts this season. Should be a good-volume game here."

Bears at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Chicago nabbed a 33-27 victory at Minnesota in Week 15, while Jacksonville got thumped at Baltimore 40-14. The SuperBook opened the Bears -6.5 and ticked to -7, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Panthers at Washington Odds
Opening line
Washington -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington's four-game SU and ATS run to the top of the putrid NFC East ended with a 20-15 home setback to Seattle. Carolina fell short Saturday night at Green Bay, 24-16. Washington moved from -1.5 to -2 at The Superbook, and that's where WFT is late Sunday night.

Giants at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York could've tied Washington atop the NFC East with a Sunday night win over Cleveland, but never really got going in a 20-6 loss. Baltimore had no such issues while pounding Jacksonville 40-14, but the Ravens are still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, sitting eighth in the AFC.

The Ravens opened -10 at The SuperBook, where the first move was actually toward the Giants within a few minutes Sunday night, as Baltimore dipped to -9.5.

Falcons at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -11, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City kept its firm grip on the AFC's top seed by edging host New Orleans 32-29 in Week 15, while Atlanta blew a 24-7 third-quarter lead at home in a 31-27 loss to Tampa Bay. The Chiefs opened -11 at The SuperBook and dipped to -10.5, where the line sits late Sunday night.

Rams at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Los Angeles was dealt one of the more stunning losses of the 2020 season, a 23-20 home setback to the previously winless New York Jets. Seattle let Washington hang around, but mustered a 20-15 road victory in Week 15 and is now a game clear of the Rams in the NFC West.

"We opened Seahawks -2, took some money and moved it to -2.5," Murray said. "The Rams are coming off as bad of a loss as we have seen in the NFL this season, but they are a very well-coached team, and I?d expect them to play with some serious focus this week. Another good-volume game with good two-way write."

Eagles at Cowboys Odds
Opening line
Cowboys +1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Believe it or not, these two teams are still alive to win the NFC East, even though Philadelphia is 4-9-1 SU and Dallas is 5-9 SU. Philly fell at Arizona 33-26 in Week 15, while Dallas dumped visiting San Francisco 41-33.

The initial move on this line was toward the Cowboys, with The SuperBook going from Eagles -1.5 to -1 and remaining there through Sunday night.

Titans at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay fended off Carolina 24-16 in Week 15 and holds the NFC's top playoff seed. Tennessee is tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South, but the Titans hold the tiebreaker and are currently the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Titans topped Detroit 46-25 Sunday.

"We opened Packers -4 and are still there," Murray said of the Week 16 Sunday nighter. "I expect to see sharp money come in on the Titans in this game, and the Packers always see an onslaught of public bets, especially in prime time. This could end up being one of those Pros vs. Joes type games that media types love. I?m sure we will be pulling for the Titans."

Bills at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Bills -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game certainly has playoff seeding implications, but only for Buffalo, as New England was officially eliminated from postseason contention in Sunday's 22-12 loss at Miami. Meanwhile, Buffalo boatraced Denver 48-19 in a Week 15 Saturday night affair.

"It is funny to see the Bills laying -6.5 on the road against the Patriots, but that?s where we are right now," Murray said of a line that remains -6.5 late Sunday night. "The Bills are the new class of the division with the franchise QB (Josh Allen), and the Patriots will have to rebuild. I?d say the Patriots had a decent run. The books will be pulling for the Patriots in a big way next Monday night."

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 16: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Dolphins have won eight of their last 10 games but some bettors are still giving them the Santa treatment. If you believe in the Fins, grabbed them -2.5 at Las Vegas now before the spread swings to a field goal.

Christmas shopping can be stressful, especially in crunch time as the advent calendar quickly ticks down to December 25.

But if you shop smart, carefully coursing your plan of attack, some of that stress can be elevated. The same goes with shopping for NFL Week 16 odds. If you?re calculated with your wagers and get the best of the number, it makes Sundays far less stressful.

The best NFL betting strategy is always about getting the best odds for your opinion, which is why we give our weekly NFL betting tips on which spreads and totals to bet now and which lines you should bet later.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders: Bet Now

Some of us are giving the Santa treatment to the Miami Dolphins, struggling to believe that this team is for real. After winning eight of their last 10 games, it may be time to tag the Fins as fact and not fiction.

Miami is a 2.5-point road favorite in Las Vegas in Week 16 and with over 80 percent of the early tickets on the visitor, this spread will likely land on a field goal sooner than later. And why not? The Raiders? postseason hopes are pretty much dead in the water after going bust against the L.A. Chargers at home last Thursday and QB Derek Carr is out with a groin injury, leaving Marcus Mariota under center.

Vegas has dropped two in a row inside Allegiant Stadium and is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS inside its shiny new home, while Miami is a moneymaker away from South Beach with a 4-2 ATS mark as a visitor. If you?re down with the Dolphins, bet them now at -2.5.

San Francisco 49ers (+4) at Arizona Cardinals: Bet Later

A weird game deserves a weird line. In the battle for State Farm Stadium, the Niners are the visitor in their makeshift home facing their roommates, the division-rival Cardinals. Arizona opened as low as -3.5 and the line jumped to -4 with San Francisco losing at Dallas and the Cardinals pushing past Philadelphia in Week 15.

The 49ers were very much playing their fifth straight road game in that defeat to the Cowboys but now should feel a little more settled into their surrogate venue come Week 16. Turnover troubles have plagued San Francisco the past two games, which has overshadowed solid efforts from the defense. The Niners have actually out-yarded their last two foes by a total of 802 yards to 484 yards. Wowzas.

As mentioned, this line is climbing from -3.5 to the dead number of -4. If money keeps coming on the Cardinals, bookies will move quickly through those dead digits and this could be at -5 or even -5.5. San Fran quarterback Nick Mullens could be replaced by C.J. Beathard, which does nothing in terms of value to the spread but feels like a welcome swap. If you?re not counting out the Niners, hold on for all the points you can get.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Under 50): Bet Now

I don?t understand why this total is at 50 points to begin with. Denver?s offense has failed to score more than 20 points in four of its last five outings and while the Broncos defense isn?t doing much either, it is facing a Chargers attack that scuffed its feet over the past month.

Outside of needing overtime to break the 30-point plateau against the Raiders last Thursday, the Bolts have been bums with the football. Los Angeles boasted scores of 17, zero, and 20 points in the three games prior to Week 15.

These AFC West rivals did go Over the 44.5-point number with a 31-30 Broncos win back on December 1, but this is the tallest total these teams have faced for one of their matchups in the past 11 meetings. With neither team playing for the postseason, motivation could be missing in Week 16. If you?re not buying a 50-point total either, take the Under now.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Under 49.5): Bet Later

This Week 16 showdown holds weight in the NFC East booby prize with the Cowboys climbing back into the playoff race with a win over San Francisco this past Sunday. Dallas dropped 41 points on the 49ers and has scored a total of 71 points the past two games.

The Eagles have received an offensive jumpstart from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, who has helped the Philadelphia scoring attack notch 26 and 24 points in his first two starts, after Philly floundered for sub-20 point totals in the four games previous to Hurts getting the nod.

That sudden uptick in production has the Over 49.5 juiced heavy at -115 at some sportsbooks, indicating a possible move to a 50-point total. If you like the Under in this Week 16 rivalry, bide your time. The Cowboys? recent offensive output has more to do with terrible turnovers from their opponents and the Eagles average just over 20 points per game as a visitor.

These NFC East foes have played Under in three straight meetings and are 2-6 Over/Under in their last eight head-to-head games going back to 2017.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack
Some interesting college football bowl spreads:
? Iowa (-14.5) vs Missouri
? Florida (-3) vs Oklahoma
? West Virginia (-7) vs Army
? Tulsa (-2.5) vs Mississippi State
? San Jose State (-8.5) vs Ball State
? TCU (-5.5) vs Arkansas

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 328,481
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I basically said the interest I would have is to do it right and everybody has their own version of what right is, for me, is complete control of my staff and all those things that go with it. I think maybe that was a hinderance. Once again, how far did we get down the path I won?t really say because I?m happy at UAB and this is where I?m at.?
UAB coach Bill Clark, on why Auburn didn?t hire him as their coach

Friday?s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, what actor plays the coach of the Browns?

Thursday?s quiz
Coming into this season, Stephen Curry had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA (90.6%)

Wednesday?s quiz
Last time a team won back-to-back NBA titles was 2016-2018, when Golden State won both years.

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Friday?s Den: Merry Christmas, everyone??.

13) NFL playoffs were expanded to 14 teams this year, so only the #1 seed in each conference gets a bye; over the last seven years, of the 14 teams to make the Super Bowl, 10 were one-seeds and four were 2-seeds. Having the bye has obviously been an advantage.

12) Last five years, teams that had the first round by e were 12-7-1 ATS on the second weekend, which was their first playoff game that year.

11) Over last three years, underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS on first weekend of the playoffs; one game was pick ?em.

10) 2012 Ravens are last Super Bowl champ that didn?t have a first round bye.

9) Underdogs are 12-7 ATS in last 19 Super Bowls, though favorites covered the last two.

8) Baseball doings:
? Pirates traded 1B Josh Bell to Washington, for two young pitchers.
? Detroit signed free agent pitcher Jose Urena.

7) Atlanta Hawks led Chicago 83-59 at halftime Wednesday; are the Hawks that good, or are the Bulls terrible? (With Billy Donovan coaching, they won?t be bad for very long).

6) Charlotte Hornets C Cody Zeller broke his left hand Thursday, is out 4-6 weeks.

5) Pitt Panthers? best player, Justin Champagnie, is out 6-8 weeks hurting his knee in practice this week. Pitt is off to 5-2 start, 1-1 in ACC games.

4) Hawai?i 28, Houston 14:
? Rainbows picked off three passes, jumped out to a 21-0 lead.
? After Houston but the lead to 21-14, Rainbows ran a kick back for a TD, sealing the deal.
? This was Hawai?i?s first bowl on the mainland since the Sugar Bowl after the ?08 season.

3) Wednesday?s UCLA-Oregon basketball game was postponed, not because any players or coaches had COVID, but because of COVID-19 testing protocols for the refs.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven?t scored a first quarter point in their last four games; they signed QB Drew Stanton to their practice squad, replacing the departed Josh Rosen. Stanton was with Bruce Arians in Arizona; he knows the offense.

1) Way back when, when Steve Alford was a great college player at Indiana, I was convinced that someday, he would be coach of the Hoosiers. His dad was a high school coach in Indiana, it just made sense that someday, Steve Alford would run the Hoosiers, but it hasn?t happened.

This is a goofy idea, but Indiana/Nevada should trade coaches; Indiana is 26-33 under Archie Miller in conference games, not very good. Alford has gone from Missouri State to Iowa to New Mexico to UCLA to Nevada- he?s made four Sweet 16?s, but no Elite 8?s.

Alford is 25-15 at Nevada, while totally remaking the roster after Eric Musselman left; it would be good theater if got to come home and coach Indiana.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vikings at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans dropped its last two games, falling just short at home in a 32-29 Sunday loss to Kansas City, and needs a Christmas Day win to stay ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South. Minnesota needs a win even worse after falling 33-27 at home to Chicago on Sunday, leaving the Vikes at 6-8 SU and clinging to playoff hopes.

"We opened Saints -7 and haven?t moved it," Murray said Sunday night. "There will be a lot of teaser and moneyline parlays this weekend starting with the Saints on Christmas Day. This could potentially be a big windfall for the books if the Vikings can go in there and get a win, the way they did in the wild-card round back in January. I won?t hold my breath. It seems like the Vikings have run out of steam."


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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Friday, December 25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (6 - 8) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) - 12/25/2020, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NFL

Week 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, December 25

Minnesota @ New Orleans
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New Orleans
New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


********************************


451MINNESOTA -452 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.


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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Friday?s game
Minnesota (6-8) @ New Orleans (10-4)
? Vikings lost three of their last five games; they?re barely alive in playoff race.
? Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
? Vikings has lost field position by 10+ yards in seven games this year.
? Minnesota allowed 28.2 ppg in its last five games.
? Minnesota is 9-13-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road dog, 2-3 TY.
? All xix Viking road games stayed under the total.

? New Orleans lost its last two games, giving up 24-32 points.
? Saints were outscored 31-9 in first half of last two games.
? Last two weeks, New Orleans was outrushed 425-156.
? Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.
? Saints are tied with Seattle for #2 seed in NFC.
? Five of last seven New Orleans games stayed under the total.

? Minnesota won three of last four series games, with last two wins in OT.
? Vikings lost three of last four visits to Bourbon Street.
? Average total in last four series games, 49.3.


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Friday, Dec. 25

Minnesota at New Orleans
Saints had won 9 in a row SU, covered five straight, and ?under? five consecutive before all of those streaks ended the past two weeks vs. Eagles and Chiefs.
Vikings 0-5 vs. line last five this year.
Minnesota on a 8-4-2 ?over run in 2020.
?Over? run 16-7-2 last 25 reg season games.

Tech Edge: Saints and ?over,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.


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[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at NO 04:30 PM

MIN +6.5

U 51.0

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals..........40-46-1......46.51%....-53.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack
Six most experienced teams in college basketball this year:
6) Georgia Tech
5) Nicholls State
4) North Carolina Central
3) Detroit Mercy
2) Cal-Bakersfield
1) Eastern Illinois

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 329,792
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?This is a bad defense. The worst one I?ve ever had.?
Vikings? coach Mike Zimmer

Saturday?s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; which NBA team does he own?

Friday?s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, Denis Leary plays the coach of the Browns.

Thursday?s quiz
Coming into this season, Stephen Curry had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA (90.6%)

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Saturday?s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here??.

13) New Orleans 52, Minnesota 33
? Vikings lost four of last six games; they?ve been eliminated.
? Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
? Minnesota allowed 32.2 ppg in its last six games.
? Minnesota is 9-14-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road dog.

? New Orleans had 36 first downs, ran ball for 264 yards.
? Kamara is first player since 1929 to rush for six TD?s in a game.
? Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
? New Orleans clinched NFC South title for 4th year in a row.

12) Troy Aikman was saying on TV how tackling in the NFL has gotten a lot worse, because teams don?t practice much in pads anymore, because of the collective bargaining agreement. Like any other skill, tackling takes practice.

11) Friday was the 50th anniversary of the Miami-Kansas City playoff game that went to double OT, the longest game in NFL history. Dolphins won 27-24; there were 16 future Hall of Famers in that game.

There were a total of 149 plays in that game; 61 passes, 87 runs, one sack. The game has changed a lot over the last fifty years.

10) Favorites covered five of the first seven college bowl games this fall; five of the seven games stayed under the total.

9) There are four unbeaten hoop teams in the SEC:
? Arkansas is 8-0, all home games, vs schedule #296.
? Missouri is 6-0, with 4 home games, vs schedule #54
? Tennessee is 6-0, all home games, vs schedule #244.
? Georgia is is 7-0, all home games, vs schedule #282.

Tough to project which of these teams will wind up the best, but Tennessee/Missouri would appear to be the favorites there- they?ve been tested more so far.

8) Wisconsin 85, Michigan State 76:
? Badgers start five seniors, only play eight guys. Their future is now.
? Wisconsin was 23-30 on line in this game, Spartans 14-16.

7) Western Carolina is off to a 7-2 start in basketball; coached my Mark Prosser, son of the late Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser, the Catamounts have already won four overtime games- their last three wins have all come in OT.

6) Purdue 73, Maryland 70:
? Terps never led in a game that was tied in last minute.
? Purdue was 10-22 on the arc; Maryland had only five turnovers.

5) it is a pleasure to listen to NBA games with Mark Jackson/Jeff Van Gundy as analysts; it is like eavesdropping on two friends talking ball. To me, that is the ultimate compliment when you?re talking about game analysts.

4) Nets 123, Celtics 95:
? Brooklyn won its first two games by 26-28 points.
? Steve Nash is going to think this coaching stuff is easy.

3) Golden State Warriors lost their first two games this season by 26-39 points, not a good sign that they?re any better than last year?s 15-50 disaster.

From 2013-19, Golden State averaged 62.2 wins a year. Now? Not so much.

2) Warriors have a player named Marquese Chriss; at age 23, he?s done a lot of moving:
2014-15: Pleasant Grove HS, Elk Grove, CA
2015-16: U of Washington, scored 13.7 ppg in 24.9 mpg.
2016-17: scored 9.2 ppg in all 82 games for the Phoenix Suns.
2017-18: scored 7.7 ppg in 77 games for the Suns.
2018-19: split season between Houston/Cleveland, scored 4.3 ppg in 11.6 mpg
2019-20: scored 9.3 ppg in 59 games for Golden State

At 6-foot-9, Chriss has a chance to eventually make himself a lot of money, but he needs to lock himself inside a gym and become a shooting threat. He has the ability; will he do the work?

1) Miami 111, New Orleans 98:
? Miami G Duncan Robinson scored 23 points in this game, made 7-13 3-pointers.

? Robinson started his college career a D-III Williams, before transferring to Michigan. The odds of a D-III player making it to the NBA are very, very long. He has an interesting story.

If Duncan Robinson can make a living in the NBA, Marquese Chriss should also be able to.

 

[Cnotes53]

Buccaneers at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay dug itself a 24-7 third-quarter hole at Atlanta on Sunday, but that proved a familiar position for Tom Brady, and he got a familiar result. Brady and the Bucs rallied for a 31-27 victory. Detroit, meanwhile, got outscored 22-7 in the fourth quarter of a 46-25 loss at Tennessee.

The Bucs opened -7.5 at The SuperBook and are still there late Sunday night.

49ers at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona is in the seventh and final NFC playoff slot for the moment, but needs to keep winning to stay there. In Week 15, the Cards fended off Philadelphia 33-26. San Francisco lost at Dallas 41-33 and is now playing out the string in an injury-riddled season.

The SuperBook opened the Cardinals -3 and ticked to -3.5, where the number remains late Sunday night.

Dolphins at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami, coming off a 22-12 home win over New England, currently holds the seventh and final AFC playoff spot. Las Vegas fell to the L.A. Chargers 30-27 in the Week 15 Thursday nighter and has lost four of its last five, making this Saturday night game a must-win to stay in the playoff chase.

"We opened the Dolphins -2.5. This is a big game for them, as they are hanging on in the AFC playoff race, and the Raiders are basically finished," Murray said Sunday night, adding that Las Vegas likely won't have QB Derek Carr due to a groin injury. "We don?t anticipate seeing Carr out there again. Miami has been impressive, but the Dolphins are pretty banged up. We just feel the Raiders have too many guys out defensively to not be the underdogs here."