CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

Saturday, December 26

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TAMPA BAY (9 - 5) at DETROIT (5 - 9) - 12/26/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
DETROIT is 152-193 ATS (-60.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 9) at ARIZONA (8 - 6) - 12/26/2020, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (9 - 5) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 7) - 12/26/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 45-20 ATS (+23.0 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 59-87 ATS (-36.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 39-69 ATS (-36.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 37-64 ATS (-33.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 26

Tampa Bay @ Detroit
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Detroit's last 13 games at home
Detroit is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay

San Francisco @ Arizona
San Francisco
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
Arizona is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

Miami @ Las Vegas
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games at home


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457TAMPA BAY -458 DETROIT
DETROIT is 22-49 ATS (-31.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.

459SAN FRANCISCO -460 ARIZONA
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games after a road upset loss since 1992.

461MIAMI -462 LAS VEGAS
MIAMI is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.


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Saturday?s games
Buccaneers (9-5) @ Lions (5-9)
? Buccaneers won last two games, scoring 26-31 points.
? Last four games, Bucs converted 29-60 third down plays.
? Bucs won last four road games, scoring 36.3 ppg.
? Tampa Bay is 6-4 ATS in last ten games as road favorites.
? Tampa Bay is 9-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
? Last seven games, Bucs were outscored 119-61 in first half.

? Lions allowed 27+ points in seven of its last eight games.
? Detroit already has an interim HC; they fired the special teams coach Monday
? Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
? Lions are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as home underdogs, 1-3 TY.
? Detroit scored 27.0 ppg the last four weeks.
? Five of last seven Lion games went over the total.

? Road team won six of last seven series games.
? Detroit won four of last six series games last meeting was in 2017.
? Bucs won last three visits to Detroit, scoring 33.3 ppg.

49ers (5-9) @ Arizona (8-6)
? 49ers lost six of their last seven games SU.
? 3rd-string QB Beathard starts here; ex-Cardinal Rosen is new backup.
? SF is 5-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn?t play.
? 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 34.0 ppg in their losses.
? 49ers turned ball over nine times in last three games (-7)
? In last seven games, opponents started 13 drives in SF territory (-9)

? Arizona won last two games, scoring 26-33 points.
? Cardinals covered twice in their last seven games.
? Arizona can clinch a playoff spot with a win here.
? Redbirds are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as home favorites, 2-3 TY.
? Over is 5-3 in last eight Cardinal games.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in nine of its 14 games.

? 49ers have been hunkered down in Arizona for the last month.
? Cardinals won nine of last 11 series games; they won 24-20 at SF in Week 1
? Redbirds ran ball for 180 yards in Week 1, converting 7-14 on third down.

Dolphins (9-5) @ Las Vegas (7-7)
? Dolphins won eight of their last ten games.
? Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.
? Miami is 2-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
? Last five years, Miami is 2-2 ATS as a road favorite, 1-1 TY.
? Dolphins have 16 takeaways in last seven games (+9)
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

? Las Vegas lost four of last five games, giving up 36 ppg.
? Raiders are 2-5 SU at home, beating Saints/Denver.
? Raiders turned ball over 11 times in last four games (-7)
? Las Vegas is 7-7 ATS in last 14 games as a home dog, 2-2 TY.
? Over is 11-3 in Raider games this season.
? Last three games, Las Vegas allowed 19 TD?s on 49 drives.

? Miami won six of last seven series games.
? Dolphins won five of last six trips to Oakland; last visit there was 20


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Saturday, Dec. 26

Tampa Bay at Detroit
Buccaneerss ?over? 12-3 last 15 away from Raymond James.
Lions ?over? 5-1 at home in 2020.
Detroit also ?Over? 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field since early 2019.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

San Francisco at Arizona
Home game (sort of) for both!
Niners 10-5 vs. spread last 15 as visitors.
Cardinals have covered last two this year after five straight spread losses.
Arizona has played SF pretty tough (5-0-1 last six vs. spread).
Cards 11-7-1 ?under? since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on series trends.

Miami at Las Vegas
After losing to Chargers, Raiders now 9-17-3 vs. spread in second halves of season since 2017.
Las Vegas also ?over? 10-3-1 in 2020.
Dolphins on 8-2 SU, 9-1 spread run last 10 this season.
Miami now 20-6 last 26 on board since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Dolphins and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


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NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Detroit

-- The Lions are 12-0-1 OU (9.42 ppg) since Sep 29, 2019 at home.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Miami at Las Vegas

-- The Dolphins are 10-0-1 ATS (8.59 ppg) since Dec 23, 2012 as a favorite when they covered by at least six points last game.

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at DET 01:00 PM
DET +11.5
O 55.0

SF at ARI 04:30 PM
SF +5.5
O 48.0

MIA at LV 08:15 PM
MIA -2.5
O 49.0

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals..........42-50-1......45.65%....-65.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, December 27

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DENVER (5 - 9) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 9) - 12/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (10 - 4) at NY JETS (1 - 13) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 10 - 1) at HOUSTON (4 - 10) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 3) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 85-57 ATS (+22.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (7 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 13) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 59-88 ATS (-37.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 10) at WASHINGTON (6 - 8) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 64-100 ATS (-46.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 74-102 ATS (-38.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 97-128 ATS (-43.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at BALTIMORE (9 - 5) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 10) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 1) - 12/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (9 - 5) at SEATTLE (10 - 4) - 12/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 77-105 ATS (-38.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 9 - 1) at DALLAS (5 - 9) - 12/27/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (10 - 4) at GREEN BAY (11 - 3) - 12/27/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 205-150 ATS (+40.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 57-32 ATS (+21.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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Sunday, December 27

Cleveland @ NY Jets
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland

Atlanta @ Kansas City
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Cincinnati @ Houston
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati

Carolina @ Washington
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

NY Giants @ Baltimore
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

Chicago @ Jacksonville
Chicago
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Denver @ LA Chargers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 11 games

LA Rams @ Seattle
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Rams's last 11 games
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Philadelphia @ Dallas
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games at home

Tennessee @ Green Bay
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


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453DENVER -454 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

455CLEVELAND -456 NY JETS
NY JETS are 60-88 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road since 1992.

463CINCINNATI -464 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

465INDIANAPOLIS -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1992.

467CHICAGO -468 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

469CAROLINA -470 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.


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Sunday?s games
Browns (10-4) @ NJ Jets (1-13)
? Cleveland won five of their last six games.
? Browns scored 14 touchdowns on their last 29 drives.
? Cleveland gave up 25+ points in three of last four games.
? Cleveland won five of seven road games SU; they?re 1-2 ATS as road favorites.
? Three of their last four games went over the total.
? Browns are in Meadowlands second week in a row; they beat Giants here LW.

? Jets got first win LW, are 5-3 ATS in last eight games.
? Jets allowed 30+ points in five of last seven games.
? Jets have been outscored 114-47 in 2nd half of their last nine games.
? Jets are 1-13, but their turnover ratio is even.
? Jets are 13-9-2 ATS in last 24 games as a home dog, 3-3 TY.
? Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

? Cleveland beat Jets 23-3/21-17 last two years.
? Teams split last six meetings played here.
? Average total in last three meetings, 31.7.

Cincinnati (3-10-1) @ Texans (4-10)
? Short week for Cincinnati after their great win Monday nite.
? Bengals had lost previous five games by combined 124-50.
? Last four weeks, Cincinnati gained only 222.5 yards/game.
? Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last nine games.
? Cincy allowed 16+ points in 2nd half, in eight of last nine games.
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

? Texans lost last three games, giving up 29.7 ppg.
? Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
? Texans are 2-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
? Houston has zero takeaways in last three games (-6).
? Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
? Texans converted 15 of last 29 third down plays.
? Houston won eight of last nine series games.
? Last three meetings, total of only 60 points were scored by both teams.

? Bengals lost three of last five visits here, losing last one 12-10 in 2016.

Indianapolis (10-4) @ Steelers (11-3)
? Colts won three in row, seven of last nine games.
? Indy won/covered its last four road games.
? Colts are 8-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-4 when they do not.
? Indy covered five of six games as a road favorite TY.
? Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
? Last six games, Colts outscored opponents 92-33 in 2nd half.

? Steelers lost their last three games, after an 11-0 start.
? Last four games, Steelers scored only 17 ppg.
? Pittsburgh is game ahead of Browns in AFC North; they meet next week.
? Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
? Steelers has six turnovers in last three games (-4).
? Pittsburgh averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in last five games.

? Steelers won last six series games, last two by total of 5 points.
? Colts lost last three games at Heinz Field; their last win here was in 2008.

Bears (7-7) @ Jacksonville (1-13)
? Bears won last two games, are game out of last playoff spot.
? Last four games, Chicago scored 31.0 ppg.
? Last five years, Chicago is 4-8 ATS as a road favorite.
? Bears are 4-3 SU on road; they were underdog in all seven games.
? Chicago has only seven takeaways in its last eight games (-5).
? Over is 3-1 in Bears? last four games.

? Jaguars lost their last 13 games, are 4-3 ATS in last seven.
? Jacksonville gave up 27+ points in 11 of their last 12 games.
? Last two weeks, Jacksonville was outscored 43-3 in first half.
? Jaguars are 8-10-2 ATS in last 20 games as a home dog, 3-3 TY.
? Four of their last six games stayed under the total.
? Last four weeks, Jaguars allowed 190 rushing yards/game.

? Road team won four of last seven series games.
? Chicago is 4-3 in last seven series games, 2-1 in last three visits here.
? Bears won 41-3 in last visit here, eight years ago.

Panthers (4-10) @ Washington (6-8)
? Carolina lost three in row, eight of its last nine games.
? Panthers are 4-10 despite a +4 turnover ratio.
? Panthers covered their last six games as road underdogs.
? Carolina is 0-10 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
? Four of their last six games went over the total.
? Last tfour weeks, Panthers outscored opponents 66-40 in second half.
? Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

? Huge question is whether Alex Smith plays QB for Washington.
? Washington won four of its last five games. (5-0 ATS)
? Washington outscored last six opponents 120-37 in second half.
? Washington is 3-4 SU in its home games this year.
? Washington is 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as home favorites, 2-1 TY.
? Under is 7-2-1 in last nine Washington games.
? Last five weeks, Washington allowed 15.4 ppg.

? Washington is 9-6 in series, winning 23-17/29-21 last two years.
? Panthers lost six of their eight visits here.

NY Giants (5-9) @ Baltimore (9-5)
? Giants lost last two games, outscored 46-13.
? Giants are 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS outside their division.
? Last three games, Giants were outscored 31-3 in first half.
? Big Blue is 0-6 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
? Giants are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog this season.
? Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

? Baltimore won last three games, scoring 34-47-40 points.
? Baltimore scored 15 TD?s on their last 29 drives.
? Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
? Ravens are 12-18 ATS in last 30 games as home favorites, 4-3 TY.
? Over is 4-1 in Baltimore?s last five games.
? Ravens are tied with Miami for #7-seed, but lose tie-breaker.

? Ravens won four of last six series games.
? Giants lost 37-14/33-14 in last two visits here.
? Home team won last four series games.

Falcons (4-10) @ Kansas City (13-1)
? Falcons lost four of their last five games.
? Atlanta led seven of its last nine games at halftime.
? Last two games, Atlanta was outscored 41-10 in second half.
? Their last three games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
? Atlanta is 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog, 4-3 TY.
? Eight of their last 11 games stayed under the total.

? Chiefs won their last nine games, are 0-5-1 ATS in last six.
? Kansas City won all seven of its road games this year (3-4 ATS)
? Chiefs are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 3-3 TY.
? Last six games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg
? Chiefs had 34 first downs, outgained Saints 411-285 LW.
? Kansas City clinch #1-seed in AFC with win or tie here.

? Falcons won three of last five series games, but lost three of last four trips here.
? Atlanta won 40-24 in its last visit to Arrowhead, in 2012.

Rams (9-5) @ Seahawks (10-4)
? Rams won four of their last six games, but lost to 0-13 Jets LW.
? Last two games, LA converted only 5-25 third down plays.
? In their five losses, Rams were outscored 90-25 in first half.
? Rams are 4-3 SU on road; under McVay, they?re 7-3 ATS as road dogs.
? Nine of LA?s last 11 games stayed under the total.
? Rams are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.

? Seattle won four of its last five games overall.
? Last four games, Seahawks allowed 13 ppg.
? Last five games, Seahawks outscored foes 71-21 in first half.
? Seattle is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this year.
? Last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
? Seahawks are minus-5 in turnovers (4-9) their last seven games.

? Rams converted 9-15 on 3rd down, beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10.
? LA won five of last six series games; the loss was 30-29 here LY.

Eagles (4-9-1) @ Dallas (5-9)
? Eagles lost five of last six games; they?re 1-6 SU on road.
? Philly gained 413-422 yards in Hurts? first two starts at QB.
? Last three games, Philly allowed 440.3 yards/game.
? Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-9-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Eagles are 10-8 ATS in last 18 games as road dogs, 1-3 TY.
? Six of last eight Philly games stayed under the total.

? Dallas won its last two games, scoring 30-41 points.
? Cowboys have seven takeaways in those two games (+7)
? Dallas was leading at halftime in five of last seven games.
? Cowboys covered four of their last six games.
? Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
? Dallas is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as home underdogs, 2-1 TY.

? Cowboys won four of last six series games.
? Philly (-8.5) beat Dallas 23-9 in Week 8; they were outgained 265-222.
? Eagles lost 29-23 OT/37-10 in their last two visits to Dallas.

Denver (5-9) @ LA Chargers (5-9)
? Denver lost six of last eight games, covered three of last five.
? Broncos covered five of seven road games this season.
? Broncos are 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games as road underdogs, 5-2 TY.
? Denver turned ball over 19 times (-11) in their last nine games.
? Last four games, Broncos were outscored 74-31 in second half.
? Denver allowed 182+ rushing yards in four of last six games.

? Chargers won their last two games, both on last play of game.
? Bolts are 4-3 SU at home; they?re 2-4-1 ATS as favorites TY.
? Last five games, Charger were outscored 89-40 in first half.
? Chargers are 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY.
? Three of last four Charger games stayed under the total.
? LA gave up 27+ points in 10 of its last 11 games.

? Broncos (+3) beat Chargers 31-30 at home November 1st; they were down 14-3 at half.
? Chargers had 485 total yards in that game.
? Denver won three in row, 11 of last 14 series games.
? Broncos won 23-22/20-13 in last two visits to the Chargers.

Tennessee (9-4) @ Green Bay (10-3)
? Tennessee won four of last five games, is tied for first in AFC South.
? Titans scored 37.4 ppg in their last five games.
? Titans are +11 in turnovers this season.
? Last three weeks, Tennessee outscored opponents 64-20 in second half.
? Over is 9-3-1 in Titans? last thirteen games.
? Titans scored 15 TD?s on their last 32 drives.

? Green Bay won four in row, six of last seven games.
? Packers scored 31.4 ppg in their last five games,
? Green Bay converted 81-165 third down plays (49.1%)
? Packers are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 4-3 TY.
? Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games.
? Packers were outscored in 2nd half in nine of their last 11 games.

? Tennessee won four of last five series games.
? Titans won four of six visits to Lambeau Field.
? Average total in last four series games: 61


******************************

Sunday, Dec. 27

Denver at L.A. Chargers
Broncos have now won and covered last three and four of last five meetings.
Denver also 5-2 vs. line away in 20202
Even further back, 9-4 last 13 vs. spread as visitor.
Bolts 2-5-1 as chalk in 2020.
Los Angeles is 4-13-1 laying points (favorite) since last season.

Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
Jets have covered 5 of last 8 this season but still just 6-9 vs. line in 2020.
Going back to 2019, New York 6-13 last 18 on board.
These teams also ?under? in meetings each of last three seasons.

Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.

Cincinnati at Houston
Even after beating Steelers on Monday, Bengals 2-4 vs. line last six this year despite 1-5 SU mark.
Cincy also ?under? 4-1 last five.
Texans 5-8-1 as chalk since last season.
Houston also ?under? 5-1 last five in 2020.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Colts 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 vs. line last six in 2020.
Indy also ?over? 4-2 last six games.
Steelers no covers last four in 2020 after Cincy loss on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh also ?under? 4-1 last five in 2020.

Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.

Chicago at Jacksonville
Bears 0-2 as chalk in 2020, no covers last 8 laying points since early last year!
Chicago also ?under? 25-11-1 since late 2018.
Jaguars 4-3 vs. spread last seven in 2020 though not winning any of those outright.

Tech Edge: Jaguars and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

Carolina at Washington
Head coach Ron Rivera vs. old employer.
After cover at Green Bay, Panthers have covered last six on road.
Carolina also 8-1 last nine games as an underdog.

Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.

N.Y. Giants at Baltimore
Including loss to Browns on Sunday Night, G-Men 7-2-1 last 10 vs. line this season.
New York also 6-0 as road underdog in 2020.
NY ?under? 9-3-1 this season as well.
Ravens might be heating up again with covers last four games.

Tech Edge: Giants and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

Atlanta at Kansas City
Chiefs on 0-5-1 spread skid.
Falcons 6-2 ?under? last eight in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons and ?under,? based on recent trends.

L.A. Rams at Seattle
Rams have battered Seahawks last two meetings.
Los Angeles has also won 5 of last 6 SU in series.
Seattle ?under? last six this season.
Rams on a 10-4 ?under? run in 2020.

Tech Edge: Rams and ?under,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

Philadelphia at Dallas
Birds no covers last five or six of last seven on road this season.
Dallas however just 4-10 vs. line in 2020.
Cowboys just 2-5 vs. spread at home.
Philadelphia has won and covered last two meetings.
However, had lost and failed to cover previous four games.
Note Cowboys ?over? 4-1 last five this season.
Eagles are ?over? 2-0 with rookie Jalen Hurts at QB.

Tech Edge: ?Over and slight to Eagles, based on ?totals? and team trends.

Tennessee at Green Bay
Titans ?over? 21-6 since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB midway in 2019.
Tenn has also covered 5 of last 7 as underdogs.
Packers only 4-6 vs. spread last 10 this year after Panthers game.

Tech Edge: Titans and ?Over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


*****************************


Gridiron Angles - Week 16
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Kansas City

-- The Falcons are 10-0-1 ATS (14.32 ppg) since Dec 21, 2014 as a dog off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Denver at L.A. Chargers

-- The Chargers are 0-13-1 ATS (-10.68 ppg) since Dec 22, 2018 coming off a game where they gained at least 367 yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Baltimore

-- The Ravens are 10-0 ATS (11.80 ppg) since Nov 25, 2018 coming off a home win where Lamar Jackson completed at least 60% of his passes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

-- The Steelers are 0-11-1 OU (-5.54 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 as a dog coming off a game where they gained less than 20 first downs.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at KC 01:00 PM
ATL +11.0
O 54.0

CLE at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +6.5
O 44.5

IND at PIT 01:00 PM
U 42.0

CHI at JAC 01:00 PM
CHI -8.5
O 46.5

CIN at HOU 01:00 PM
HOU -7.5
U 45.5

NYG at BAL 01:00 PM
NYG +10.0
O 43.5

CAR at WAS 04:05 PM
CAR -1.0
U 42.0

DEN at LAC 04:05 PM
DEN +2.5
O 47.5

LAR at SEA 04:25 PM
LAR +1.5
O 48.0

PHI at DAL 04:25 PM
DAL +3.0
U 50.5

TEN at GB 08:20 PM
GB -3.0
U 53.5

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/27/2020 8-13-0 38.10% -3150 Detail
12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........50-63-1......44.24%....-98.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack
Interesting Week 17 NFL spreads:
? Washington @ Philadelphia (-1.5)
? Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-14)
? Green Bay (-4.5) @ Chicago
? Dallas (-2.5) @ NJ Giants
? Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (-7)
? Tennessee (-7) @ Houston

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 331,732
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?When I threw it, I didn?t see it. As you saw, my facemask got basically ripped off. I didn?t know he caught it. And everybody on the sideline was all excited. ? It was pretty incredible.?
Ryan Fitzpatrick, on his pass Saturday that set up Miami?s game-winning FG

Late baseball trade: Tampa Bay is trading P Blake Snell to San Diego for prospects.

Monday?s quiz
Before moving to Tennessee, where did the Titans call home?

Sunday?s quiz
Robert Wuhl played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham.

Saturday?s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns the NBA?s Denver Nuggets and the NHL?s Colorado Avalanche.

********************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Jets 23, Browns 16
? Browns were missing their three best WR?s (contact tracing)
? Cleveland in first half: 38 plays, 113 yards, 3 points.
? Cleveland was outrushed 131-45; they threw 53 passes, ran ball only 18 times.
? Browns are in a massive tie for AFC Wild Card; one of six teams will miss out.

? Jets won their second straight game after an 0-13 start.
? Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
? Jets are 14-9-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home dog
? Jets have a +2 turnover ratio this season.

Cincinnati 37, Texans 31
? Second straight win for Cincinnati, scoring 27-37 points.
? QB Allen threw for 371 yards; he is now 2-5 as an NFL starter.
? Bengals in 2nd half: 35 plays, 305 yards, three TD?s, two FG?s.
? Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last ten games.

? Texans lost last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
? Houston has zero takeaways in last three games (-7).
? Texans allowed 11 TD?s on opponents? last 29 drives.
? Total yardage in game: 540-488, Cincinnati.

Steelers 28, Indianapolis 24
? Colts led 24-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
? Indy?s last five drives: 25 plays, 97 yards, zero points.
? Colts are 8-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-5 when they do not.
? Eight of their last 11 games went over the total.

? Pittsburgh snaps a 3-game losing streak, clinches AFC North title.
? Steelers? last four drives: 24 plays, 232 yards, 21 points.
? Pittsburgh still ran for only 20 yards on 14 carries.
? Steelers won last seven series games, last three by total of 9 points.

Bears 41, Jacksonville 17
? Jaguars had ball in 10-10 game with 0:24 left in first half; they threw INT, Bears kicked FG, and the was the end of that.
? Chicago?s first four 2nd half drives: 30 plays, 204 yards, four TD?s.
? Bears are in playoffs if they beat Green Bay next week.
? Last five games, Chicago scored 33.0 ppg.

? Jaguars lost their last 14 games; they clinched 1st pick in 2021 draft.
? Jacksonville gave up 27+ points in 12 of their last 13 games.
? Jaguars in 2nd half: 24 plays, 84 yards, four first downs. No bueno.
? Jaguars are 8-11-2 ATS in last 21 games as a home dog.

Baltimore 27, NY Giants 13
? Giants lost last three games, outscored 73-26.
? Giants are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS outside their division.
? Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-6 in first half.
? Despite all that, Giants win NFC East if they win and Eagles win next week.

? Baltimore won last four games, scoring 37 ppg.
? Baltimore scored 18 TD?s on their last 37 drives.
? Ravens won field position by 18 yards in this game.
? Right now, Baltimore is odd-man out in playoff logjam.

Kansas City 17, Falcons 14
? Atlanta missed 39-yard FG with 0:09 left.
? Falcons lost five of their last six games.
? Atlanta trailed in only two of last 10 games at halftime.
? Nine of their last 12 games stayed under the total.

? Chiefs won their last ten games, are 0-6-1 ATS in last seven.
? KC won its last seven games by 6 or fewer points, longest-such streak in NFL history.
? Chiefs scored game-winning TD with 1:55 left.
? Kansas City clinched #1-seed in AFC with win here.

Panthers 20, Washington 13
? Carolina won for only second time in last ten games.
? Panthers in second half: 29 plays, 79 yards, zero points.
? Carolina is 5-0 when they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-10 when they allow 23+.
? Panthers won field position in this game by 10 yards.

? QB Haskins was relieved by Heinicke, playing in NFL for first time in two years.
? Somehow, Washington still leads the NFC East.
? Washington outscored last seven opponents 130-37 in second half.
? Last six weeks, Washington allowed 16.2 ppg.

Seahawks 20, Rams 9
? Seattle wins AFC West fir fifth time under Pete Carroll.
? Seattle won five of its last six games overall.
? Last five games, Seahawks allowed 12.2 ppg.
? Last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.

? Down 13-6 in 3rd quarter, Rams had 1st-and-goal on 1-yard line, did not score.
? In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
? QB Goff dislocated his right thumb in 3rd quarter, finished the game.
? Ten of LA?s last 12 games stayed under the total.

Dallas 37, Eagles 17
? Eagles lost six of last seven games; they were 1-7 SU on road.
? Philly gained 413-422-477 yards in Hurts? first three starts at QB.
? Last four games, Philly allowed 458.5 yards/game.
? Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-10-1 if they allow more than 21.

? Dallas won its last three games, scoring 30-41-37 points.
? Dalton threw for 377 yards and three TD?s.
? Cowboys have ten takeaways in those three games (+9)
? Dallas was leading at halftime in six of last eight games.

LA Chargers 19, Denver 16
? Broncos had ball in red zone four times, scored only 10 points.
? Denver lost seven of their last nine games.
? Broncos turned ball over 21 times (-13) in their last ten games.
? Denver outgained the Chargers 396-316, but the red zone killed them.

? Badgley kicked 37-yard FG with 0:37 left for the win.
? Chargers won their last three games, all in last minute.
? Bolts won five of eight games in their new home.
? Four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.

Green Bay 40, Tennessee 14
? Tennessee was outgained 448-260 on a snowy night at Lambeau.
? Titans are still tied for first with Indy in AFC South.
? Tennessee gave up 234 rushing yards.
? Over is 10-3-1 in Titans? last fourteen games.

? Green Bay won five in row, seven of last eight games.
? Packers scored 32.8 ppg in their last six games,
? Green Bay has converted 85-173 third down plays (49.1%)
? Davante Adams caught 11 passes for 142 yards, three TD?s.

2) Halftime score of the day: Mavericks 77, Clippers 27. Really. 77-27. Dallas wound up winning by 51.

1) College hoop scores of note:
? Providence 95, DePaul 90 (2OT)
? Cal-Irvine 75, UCSB 56
? Drake 81, Indiana State 63 (Drake is 10-0)
? Southern Illinois 63, Evansville 57

 

[Cnotes53]

Bills at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Bills -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game certainly has playoff seeding implications, but only for Buffalo, as New England was officially eliminated from postseason contention in Sunday's 22-12 loss at Miami. Meanwhile, Buffalo boatraced Denver 48-19 in a Week 15 Saturday night affair.

"It is funny to see the Bills laying -6.5 on the road against the Patriots, but that?s where we are right now," Murray said of a line that remains -6.5 late Sunday night. "The Bills are the new class of the division with the franchise QB (Josh Allen), and the Patriots will have to rebuild. I?d say the Patriots had a decent run. The books will be pulling for the Patriots in a big way next Monday night."


******************************


Monday, December 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (11 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 8) - 12/28/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-52 ATS (+33.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 212-158 ATS (+38.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-76 ATS (+23.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-95 ATS (+31.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-96 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-62 ATS (+24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


*******************************


Monday, December 28

Buffalo @ New England
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Buffalo


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday's game
Bills (11-3) @ New England (6-8)
? Buffalo won seven of its last eight games, covered last six.
? Bills outscored last five opponents 104-52 in first half.
? Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East.
? Bills scored 24+ points in ten of their ten wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 6-6 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-3 TY.
? Over is 10-4 in their games this season.

? New England lost last two games, are out of playoffs for first time since ?08.
? Last two games, Patriots have no TD?s on 19 drives (eight 3/outs).
? New England trailed at halftime in eight of its last 11 games.
? Patriots converted only 5 of last 22 third down plays.
? Last five years, Patriots are 2-0 ATS as home underdogs, both TY.
? Under is 9-2 in their last eleven games.

? Bills (-4) beat New England 24-21 in Week 8.
? Rushing yardage in that game: 190-188.
? Bills lost last three visit here average of 13 points; they?re 6-35 SU in last 41 series games.


***************************


Monday, Dec. 28

Buffalo at New England
Different circumstances in 2020 but head coach Bill Belichick has long owned Bills and even covered earlier meeting this season.
Now 5-2 last seven vs. spread in series and numbers stronger the further back, but not as applicable anyway these days.
Bills however have now won last four SU and covered last six in 2020.
Buffalo also ?over? 9-4-1 in 2020.
Belichick 4-2 last six as 'dog this season (but 0-2 last two).
New England 17-7 as dog since 2010.
Patriots ?under? 10-4 in 2020.

Tech Edge: slight to Bills and ?under,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUF at NE 08:15 PM

BUF -7.5

O 47.0

 

[Cnotes53]

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/28/2020 1-0-1 75.00% +500 Detail
12/27/2020 8-13-0 38.10% -3150 Detail
12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/20/2020 9-13-0 40.91% -2650 Detail
12/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/14/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
12/13/2020 11-15-0 42.31% -2750 Detail
12/10/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/07/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 12-8-1 60.00% +1600 Detail
12/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail

Totals..........51-63-2......45.13%....-93.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack
Interesting Week 17 NFL spreads:
? New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina
? NJ Jets @ New England (-3.5)
? Minnesota (-6.5) @ Detroit
? Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
? Baltimore (-11.5) @ Cincinnati
? Seattle (-4.5) @ San Francisco

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 334,116
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?He is going to stand on his beliefs and he?s certainly not going to be politically correct. To be honest, I?m certainly paying attention, but it doesn?t affect us at all. Whether or not he upset (people), Ohio State is going to be excited to play because it?s the Playoff, it?s a great opportunity. I mean, that?s what it?s all about. Just making the most of your opportunity. Certainly this year, everybody has worked hard, struggled, made a lot of sacrifice?
Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables, talking about Dabo Swinney voting Ohio State 11th in the last coaches? poll

Tuesday?s quiz
When was the last time an NFL team went 0-16 for a season?

Monday?s quiz
Before moving to Tennessee, the Titans were the Houston Oilers.

Sunday?s quiz
Robert Wuhl played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham.

****************************

Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??

13) An ethical question to start off today: if you owned an NFL team (an average NFL team is worth $3B), and your team had the worst record in the league in December, would you to tell the coach to make sure the squad kept losing, to make sure you get the #1 pick in the draft?

Drafting Trevor Lawrence will sell a lot of tickets, when fans can go to games again; trading the first pick would bring a back a big haul of draft picks, which would fill a lot of holes that a bad team obviously has.

Lot of money at stake; these conversations would have been interesting to hear.

12) CBS analyst/former NFL QB Rich Gannon had the Bears-Jaguars game Sunday; he was very critical of the Jacksonville coaches as Chicago pulled ahead and routed the Jaguars, but it has to be a possibility that Doug Marrone was doing his job, making sure Jacksonville lost and clinched the #1 pick in the draft, which they did Sunday.

For the long-term success of the Jaguars, having that #1 pick is probably the best way for them to become good again.

11) An unnamed someone bet $500,000 on the Carolina Panthers? money line Sunday; that person mustn?t think much of Dwayne Haskins as a quarterback. Panthers won 20-13, and the gambler had a big day, just in time, too. Washington released Haskins Monday.

It takes a lot of onions to wager $500,000 on the Panthers to win straight up- they had lost eight of their previous nine games.

10) Haskins was Washington first round draft pick LAST YEAR, the 15th pick in the draft, and they freakin? cut him before his second year was over, making him the only QB in the last 20 years who was drafted in the first round, then cut before his second year was over.

Four 1st round QBs in the last twenty years were traded/cut after their second year in the NFL: Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen and Brandon Weeden.

9) Mike Glennon played QB for Jacksonville Sunday; he?s had a nomadic career:
2009-12: NC State, started last two years, replacing Russell Wilson
2013-16: Tampa Bay- Was 5-13 as a starter, with 30 TD?s, 15 INTs
2017: Chicago- Went 1-3 as a starter, with 4 TD?s, 5 INT?s
2018: Arizona- Threw 21 passes in two relief stints.
2019: Oakland: Threw 10 passes in two relief stints.
2020: Jacksonville: 0-4 as a starter, with 5 TD?s, 5 INT?s

6-20 as a starter, still making seven figures a year ($1.19M this year)

8) Was a little odd Sunday, watching NFL games on the dish, and CBS get doing promos for the Ball State-San Jose State bowl game, but both teams have really good years. San Jose is actually undefeated; good for them!!!

7) Baseball stuff:
? Texas Rangers signed Japanese P Kohei Arihara.
? San Diego signed Korean IF Ha-seong Kim

6) RIP to Phil Niekro, the knuckleballer pitcher who won 318 games in a 24-year career, mostly for the Braves. Niekro pitched until he was 48 years old; he passed away this weekend. RIP, sir.

5) College hoop scores of note:
? Maryland 70, Wisconsin 64
? Drake 66, Indiana State 63 (Drake is 11-0)
? Evansville 84, Southern Illinois 72

4) In their 52-33 win over Minnesota Christmas Day, the Saints had 11 first downs on their first 14 plays, which is incredibly bad defense by the Vikings (and good offense by the Saints).

52 points the Saints scored are the most points the Vikings gave up since 1963, when the Cardinals drilled them 56-14.

3) Rams? QB Jared Goff had his broken right thumb surgically repaired Monday, is out for this week?s game with Arizona. Backup QB John Wolford will get his first NFL start; he started for four years at Wake Forest, then played for the Arizona Hotshots in the AAF in 2018- they were 5-3 when the league stopped playing, and Wolford was leading the league in TD passes.

2) Minnesota Timberwolves? star Karl-Anthony Towns dislocated his left wrist, will be evaluated every week. Timberwolves are obviously hoping for a short absence for their star.

Nets? Spencer Dinwiddie partially tore his ACL, is out for the season.

1) Bills 38, New England 9
? Bills sweep New England for first time since 1999.
? Buffalo won eight of last eight games, covered last seven.
? Bills outscored last six opponents 128-61 in first half.
? Over is 11-4 in their games this season.

? New England lost last three games, are out of playoffs for first time since ?08.
? Last three games, Patriots scored only one touchdown.
? Patriots converted only 9 of last 34 third down plays.
? This was Buffalo?s 7th win in last 42 series games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 16
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals +7.5 (ML +275) at Texans, 37-31
Jets +6.5 (ML +250) vs. Browns, 23-16
49ers +6 (ML +230) at Cardinals, 20-12
Cowboys +3 (ML +155) vs. Eagles, 37-17

The largest favorites to cover

Buccaneers (-12) at Lions, 47-7
Ravens (-9.5) vs. Giants, 27-13
Bears (-9) at Jaguars, 41-17
Saints (-6.5) vs. Vikings, 52-33

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you bet the Cleveland Browns early in the week at an open of -10, or -9.5, you were greeted with the news Saturday afternoon that the team's top four wide receivers on the depth chart - Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and KhaDarel Hodge were each positive for COVID-19, and they would be out for Sunday's game against the New York Jets. That meant the team had to call-up two wide receivers from the practice squad to join WR Marvin Hall on the 53-man roster. Not so good. The game closed at -6.5, and even that was never going to happen.

The Browns fired out to a 3-0 lead with a field goal to cap off their initial drive, and there were some thoughts they might be OK. That idea was quickly erased when they fell for a trick play, as WR Jamison Crowder hit WR Braxton Berrios for a 43-yard touchdown late in the first quarter to take a 7-3 lead, covering the first-quarter spread at +2.5 (-130), by the way.

They added a pair of touchdowns early in the second quarter, and midway through the third, pushing their lead to 20-3. It was their biggest lead of the season. RB Nick Chubb cut the lead to 20-10 with a 1-yard touchdown run late in the third, and RB Kareem Hunt added a touchdown early in the fourth, slicing the lead to 20-16. That's as close as the Browns would get.

The Jets tacked on a field goal late, making it 23-16. Cleveland had a chance to tie, but QB Baker Mayfield had a fumble on fourth and short. They recovered ahead of the line to gain, but only the fumbler can advance the ball, so it was returned to the spot of the fumble, which was short. That was Cleveland's last gasp, and Browns side bettors never really had a chance at a cover.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

Going back to Saturday's game between the Miami Dolphins-Las Vegas Raiders, it was a rough night if you were laying the two points with the Raiders, or holding an 'under' (47) ticket.

Things were going according to plan if you bet the Raiders +2.5 and/or the 'under' (47). The Raiders were up 7-3 after 15 minutes, and they held a 13-6 lead into halftime. However, the Dolphins tied it up 13-13 on their first possession of the third quarter, while Daniel Carlson closed the scoring late in the third quarter to restore the lead of the home side, 16-13.

There were no points in the first 10:59 of the fourth quarter until Jason Sanders booted a 22-yard field goal to tie the game 16-16 with 4:01 left in regulation. Under bettors were still in great shape, and the Raiders were still covering. Then, things went haywire.

QB Derek Carr hits WR Nelson Agholor on an 85-yard touchdown strike just 24 seconds later to take a 22-16 lead, but Carlson misfired on the point-after attempt. That would be costly.

RB Myles Gaskin galloped 59 yards on a pass and catch from newly inserted QB Ryan Fitzpatrick just 42 seconds later, giving the Dolphins a 23-22 lead with 2:55 to go in regulation. Still, the 'under' was hitting, and the Raiders were also cashing with the points. Carlson atoned with 22-yard field goal to make it 25-23, crushing the dreams of under bettors. The Dolphins got the ball back and ended up driving down for a 44-yard field goal attempt from Sanders, and the Dolphins pulled off a miracle 26-25 win.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 16 was the Carolina Panthers-Washington Football Team (41.5) game, and apparently it wasn't low enough. The Panthers had a 6-0 lead after 15 minutes, and a 20-3 lead over former head coach Ron Rivera and WFT, and 'over' bettors actually were on pace for a winner for a while. But the Washington defense tightened up in the second half, and pitched a shutout. However, Rivera decided to bench ineffective QB Dwayne Haskins in favor of backup QB Taylor Heinicke too late, and the home side could only close to within 20-13. That's how it ended, and the 'under' was never in doubt.

The highest total on the board this week was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Detroit Lions (55) game on Saturday afternoon. The Bucs certainly did their part, throwing up 47 points, but the Lions were able to muster up just seven. It was a rough finish, too. The Bucs held a 34-0 lead at halftime, and they were up 47-7 after 45 minutes, but a scoreless fourth quarter had 'over' bettors just shaking their heads in disbelief.

As far as the primetime games were concerned, we covered the Dolphins-Raiders situation above. On Sunday night, the Tennessee Titans-Green Bay Packers (52.5) played in a winter wonderland at Lambeau Field. It was snowing pretty good early on, but tailed off in the end. The teams struggled to get their footing early on, and we had just six points after 15 minutes. Green Bay took a 20-6 lead into halftime, and they were just about halfway to the over, too. After 28 total points in the second half, mostly thanks to the Pack, there were a total of 54 points on the board for a narrow 'over' play. The 'over' is 2-0 in primetime games of Week 16 with Monday's game between the Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots (46.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 27-19 (58.7%) across 46 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 17

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bengals are finishing up strong, winners of the past two games as underdogs of a touchdown or more, while the Ravens are still playing to get into the playoffs. Baltimore has covered five straight games, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight inside the AFC North, including a dominant 27-3 in Charm City back in Week 5 as 12.5-point favorites, a number similar to this one. The 'under' easily cashed in that game, too.

The Ravens defense has been the story lately, allowing 17 or fewer points in three of the past four games. The exception was that wild 47-42 win in Cleveland on Dec. 14 in Week 14. The Ravens are also 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games on the road, and 8-3 ATS in the previous 11 against teams with a winning record, too. As far as the Bengals are concerned, they have covered five of the past six at home, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five at home as a 'dog. They're also 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight games in the month of January, but 4-0 ATS in the past four games played in Week 17.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys and Giants square off at Met Life Stadium on Sunday, and Dallas is still alive for the NFC East Division title. They need to win, and then turn into the biggest Philadelphia Eagles fans for Sunday Night Football. These teams met back in Big D on Oct. 11 in Week 5, with the Cowboys squeaking out a 37-34 win. That was the day that things changed for the Cowboys, as QB Dak Prescott was knocked out of the game, and it meant a revolving door of QBs Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert due to injuries and COVID-19. Dalton is back healthy and this team might be playing the best football of anyone in the division. Dallas has won three in a row, averaging 36.0 PPG, and they have covered three in a row, too. The G-Men are eliminated from playoff contention now, but boy wouldn't they love to ruin the chance of their rivals from going to the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Titans are probably still thawing out after a bone-chilling loss in Green Bay in the snow. The Titans need to pick up a win in their finale or get some help to make the playoffs. There is a still a chance they could be the odd-man out in the AFC race, so don't expect any let-up in Houston. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight games against teams with a losing record, although they're just 6-19-1 ATS in the past 26 road games against teams with a losing home mark. The Texans were bounced by the Bengals at home in a high-scoring game, and they're now 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight against teams with a winning record.

In this series, the Titans are just 1-5 ATS in the past six trips to Houston, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, rarely has their been a Houston team that is this poor and inconsistent, so those trends might not hold much water.

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The WFT heads to the City of Brotherly Love looking to bring an NFC East Division title to D.C. Washington rattled off four straight wins against Cincinnati, Dallas, Pittsburgh and San Francisco, and looked like they were going to cruise to the division title. But narrow losses to Seattle and Carolina at home the past two games have them reeling. While they have been inconsistent on offense, total bettors love them at the window. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four for Washington, and 9-2 across the past 11 overall. In Week 1, Washington topped Philadelphia by a 27-17 score as 5.5-point underdogs as the 'over' hit. Philly is also out of the running for the NFC East title due to their loss in Dallas in Week 15, but they could spoil things for Washington. However, the Eagles are ice cold, going 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS across the past seven.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Odds Week 17: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Somewhat quietly, Mitch Trubisky and the Bears put themselves in position to control their own playoff fate. Chicago, a 4.5-point home underdog to Green Bay in Week 17, makes the playoffs with a win.

NFL Week 16 has the Monday nighter remaining, but NFL Week 17 odds are on the board and gaining traction for several key matchups. The Chicago Bears aim to punch their postseason ticket against the Green Bay Packers, and somehow, someway, the putrid NFC East will be decided.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 17 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 17 Odds

Washington at Eagles Odds
Opening line
Eagles -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington currently leads the NFC East, and Philadelphia is the only outfit in the four-team division that's been eliminated from postseason contention. Washington would have clinched the division with a Week 16 win over Carolina, but lost 20-13. Philly blew its chance to stay in the division chase in a 37-17 road loss to Dallas.

"Washington is a pretty easy team to get a handle on right now. If Dwayne Haskins is starting at QB, they are not an NFL offense and I don't see how they can win an NFL game," Murray said Sunday night. "If they somehow get Alex Smith back for this game, I'd expect them to move to the favorites and have a real shot at winning their first division title since 2015."

The line bounced around a bit in the first hour it was up Sunday night, from Eagles -1 to -2 and back to -1. This matchup got flexed into the Week 17 Sunday night game, with an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

Jaguars at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -13.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis is on the outside looking in after blowing a 24-7 third-quarter lead in a 28-24 loss at Pittsburgh. Seven teams make the AFC playoffs, and the Colts are currently eighth. Meanwhile, Jacksonville won the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes with a 41-17 home loss to Chicago.

The SuperBook opened the Colts -13.5 and stuck there through Sunday night.

Packers at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This may well be the Game of the Week, with Green Bay going for the NFC's No. 1 seed and Chicago controlling its own destiny for a wild-card slot. The Packers tuned up by trucking a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau in the Sunday nighter, and Chicago breezed by host Jacksonville 41-17.

"We opened the Packers -4.5 and closed the betting when Sunday Night Football kicked off," Murray said, noting The SuperBook's standing operating procedure, with this game set to go back up Monday morning. "The Bears control their own destiny here and have been playing well, but I'd expect a lot of public support for the Packers if they keep rolling the way they did tonight against Tennessee."

Cowboys at Giants Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas is 6-9 and New York is 5-10, which in the NFC East means both are in contention for the division title and a playoff spot in this regular-season finale. The Cowboys kept their hopes alive by beating Philadelphia 37-17 in Week 16, and the Giants made things tougher by losing 27-13 at Baltimore.

"We opened this game pick and took money right away on Dallas, which moved us to Cowboys -2," Murray said. "The Cowboys have been playing well the last couple of weeks, and the public will likely be all over them as a cheap favorite with a chance to win the division."

Later Sunday night, Dallas ticked up to -2.5 at The SuperBook.

Steelers at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line looks out of whack, but Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North by erasing a 24-7 third-quarter deficit to beat Indianapolis 28-24, so the Steelers have little for which to play. On the flip side, COVID-hindered Cleveland tumbled to the suddenly plucky New York Jets 23-16, and the Browns have a lot more to play for in Week 17, needing a win to assure a playoff slot.

"This will be all Browns money," Murray said Sunday night. "The Steelers clinched the AFC North today with a win over the Colts, and we think they're likely to rest players next weekend. They had a brutal schedule with a lot of games bunched closely together due to COVID-19, and they probably need a week off more than any other playoff-bound team."

Titans at Texans Odds
Opening line
Titans -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee tumbled to Green Bay 40-14 in the Week 16 Sunday nighter, so the Titans need a Week 16 win to be certain of an AFC playoff spot. Houston, playing out the string, lost to visiting Cincinnati 37-31 Sunday.

The Titans were on the move quickly Sunday night, opening -6 at The SuperBook and moving straight to -7 five minutes later. The line came off the board once the Titans-Packers game started, and it will go back up Monday morning.

Saints at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans hung a 50-burger on Minnesota in a 52-33 Christmas Day home win, clinching the NFC South, but the Saints still have a shot at the NFC's top seed. Carolina, which topped Washington 20-13 on the road, is playing for pride.

The SuperBook opened the Saints -4.5, and the first move came just a few minutes later Sunday night, with New Orleans dipping to -4.

Jets at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Patriots -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York lost its first 13 games this year, yet now has a two-game win streak after stunning the Rams in Week 15, then upending the Browns 20-13 in Week 16. New England, out of the playoffs for the first time since 2008, still has Week 16 work to do, hosting Buffalo in the Monday nighter.

The first move on the Jets-Patriots line was toward suddenly surging New York, as The SuperBook opened New England -5.5 and ticked to -5 about an hour later.

Vikings at Lions Odds
Opening line
Lions +6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Two teams soon to be making offseason plans get together in this regular-season finale. Minnesota enters off a 52-33 Christmas Day loss at New Orleans, while Detroit got trucked by Tampa Bay 47-7. The Vikings opened -6 at The SuperBook, where there was no line movement Sunday night.

Falcons at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay boatraced host Detroit 47-7 in a Week 16 Saturday tilt to clinch a playoff spot. Atlanta gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, but allowed a late touchdown in a 17-14 road loss Sunday.

The Bucs opened -4.5 and moved to -5.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Ravens at Bengals Odds
Opening line
Bengals +10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Like the Jets, the Bengals are on a late-season surge, winning two in a row. After a big home upset of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati went on the road in Week 16 and beat Houston 37-31. The Ravens topped the Giants 27-13 and are currently in the AFC playoffs, with a Week 17 win guaranteeing that slot.

The SuperBook opened the Ravens -10 and jumped straight to -11 within a few minutes Sunday night.

Dolphins at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Buffalo already has the AFC East wrapped up, but still has a shot at the AFC's No. 2 seed, though that's not as valuable as it used to be, since only the top seed gets a bye. The Bills have Week 16 work to do, playing at New England in the Monday nighter, while Miami is coming off a wild, final-seconds 26-25 victory at Las Vegas.

"We opened the Bills -4 and closed the betting when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said, noting the game will go back up Monday morning. "The Titans' (loss) could impact how much Buffalo cares about this game. This could potentially be one of the few games next week that has playoff implications for both teams. It should be a high-volume game."

Chargers at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City needed a late-fourth-quarter touchdown to fend off visiting Atlanta 17-14 Sunday, wrapping up the AFC's top seed and making Week 17 meaningless. Los Angeles beat Denver 19-16 on a last-minute field goal.

With K.C. having nothing to play for, The SuperBook opened at Chargers -2.5, and there was no line movement through Sunday night.

Seahawks at 49ers Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle wrapped up the NFC West with Sunday's 20-9 home victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Defending NFC champ San Francisco, nearing the end of an injury-wracked season, knocked off host Arizona 20-12.

The SuperBook opened the Seahawks -4 and ticked to -3.5 within a few minutes Sunday night.

Raiders at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas' slim playoff hopes evaporated in a wild finish in Sin City on Saturday night, as the Raiders lost to Miami 26-25. Denver fell 19-16 at the Chargers on Sunday and is also just playing for pride in Week 17. The Broncos opened -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Cardinals at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona was a 6-point home favorite against a San Francisco squad using its third-string QB, yet the Cardinals lost 20-12 Saturday and are on the outside looking in for an NFC playoff spot. Los Angeles is in the postseason for the moment, but Sunday's 20-9 loss at Seattle has the Rams needing a win to guarantee a playoff berth.

"We opened Rams -5," Murray said. "The Rams are off two bad performances in a row and now get a Cardinals team that could be fighting for its playoff life. This should be a high-volume game."

The SuperBook took the game off the board Sunday night while awaiting clarity on Jared Goff's status, after the Rams QB suffered a thumb injury in the loss to the Seahawks.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 17: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The New York Giants took an ugly loss in Week 16 to Baltimore, but thanks to the magic that is the NFC East, there is still a path for them to make the playoffs with a Week 17 victory.

The roulette wheel that is NFL Week 17 betting is one of the wildest slots on the schedule. Playoff pushes and offseason anxiousness mix the motivations in the final week, creating some strange NFL odds and results.

Regardless of teams? intent, the sharpest betting strategy is always getting the best number for your bet. And with that in mind, we roll out our final NFL betting tips of the regular season with our point spreads and totals to bet now and the lines you should bet later.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6): Bet Now

Talk about a mismatch in motivation. Tampa Bay needs to win this game to lock in the No. 5 seed in the NFC and is coming off a blowout win over Detroit this past Saturday, giving the Bucs an extra day of rest before hosting the Falcons.

Atlanta, on the other hand, suffered another soul-crushing loss, this time to Kansas City on Sunday. The Falcons straight up ?Falcon?d it?, dropping a game-clinching interception in the end zone then allowing Patrick Mahomes to score the go-ahead touchdown with just under two minutes remaining in the game. And when Atlanta had a shot to at least force overtime, kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal with 14 seconds left to lose 17-14.

The Buccaneers took a 31-27 win at Atlanta in Week 15 and while the Falcons have fought hard in recent weeks and plenty of players and staff are auditioning for a job in 2021, this spread is only going up. Grab Tampa Bay at -6 while you can.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+2.5): Bet Later

After the way things trickled down in Week 16, the NFC East is very interesting heading into the final slot of schedule. The Cowboys crushed Philadelphia this past Sunday and need to win at New York while getting an ?L? from Washington (vs. the Eagles) to steal the division and the NFC booby prize (a home playoff date).

This spread opened Dallas -1.5 and quickly jumped a full point to -2.5, but let?s not forget the G-Men also have a path to the postseason with a victory and a Football Team folly in Week 17. New York has dropped three straight outings while Dallas has won three in a row, however, the revenge of Jason Garrett could be complete in East Rutherford this Sunday.

The contrasting current form and added media hype around the Cowboys? Week 16 win is inching this spread near a field goal. Dallas hasn?t played well in outdoor venues this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS (pay attention to the Week 17 forecast), so if you?re on New York, you may want to wait and see if you can get +3 or more.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44.5): Bet Now

The Ravens need to win this AFC North finale to get back in the tournament and given the sizable spread (-11.5), they should be able to manage that. But big spreads often mean big scoring and that could be why we?re seeing this Over/Under start to tick up, climbing from 44 to 44.5 points Sunday night.

Baltimore has found its offensive groove. After mustering just 20.6 points per game during a tumultuous stretch from Week 8 to Week 12, the Ravens have erupted for 37 points per contest in their last four outings. Granted, the opposing defenses were far from elite, but the Bengals' stop unit is no prize pig (allowing an average of almost 26 points).

The Cincinnati offense has shown a little fight the past two weeks. The Bengals have posted scores of 27 and 37 points, with backups QB Brandon Allen putting up respectable numbers in relief of the injured Joe Burrow during his four starts. These division foes played Under the total back in October but have paid out for the Over in four of their last six meetings. Take the Over before this total climbs to 45 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Over 49): Bet Later

If you thought the tanking Jaguars were bad, wait until you get a load of the ?Zero F#cks? Jags in Week 17. With Trevor Lawrence jerseys ready to roll off the presses in Jacksonville, there's nothing to play for in Indianapolis this Sunday.

The Colts, in stark contrast, have their postseason lives on the line. Not only does Indianapolis have to win in Week 17 but it will need an assist from other AFC teams in the mix to crack the bracket. Bookies are making Indy lay two touchdowns, which should mean plenty of points. But the Jaguars have puttered to just 41 total points the past three games.

I don?t see this Over/Under cracking 50, even with some 49.5-point totals out there. There?s no doubt the lion?s share of the scoring will be on the Colts, who average 27.4 points per home game. That said, Jacksonville?s stop unit is rolling out the red carpet, giving up 112 combined points its past three appearances and allowing an NFL-worst 32.3 points per road game this season. If you?re on this Over, set an alarm to bet it later in the week.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 17
Matt Blunt

Week 17 NFL Betting Angles

Somehow the NFL has managed to make it through their entire schedule on date, as Week 17 of the regular season is finally here.

There were plenty of interruptions schedule-wise for the league this year, and some teams definitely got the short end of the stick through no fault of their own (Pittsburgh), but all 32 NFL teams have played 15 games when they were supposed to have, and a full Sunday slate of the wildness that can be Week 17 awaits.

Who's in, who's out, who cares, and who doesn't, are just some of the questions that generally has me being extremely cautious during Week 17 because a lot of the time you just don't know.

For example, Week 17 Sunday Night Football games get flexed in based on relevant playoff importance, and yet five of the last six home teams that have played a SNF Week 17 finale have lost outright.

You know, the teams that the majority of the time are favored in those ?win and get in-type? scenarios and they have consistently fallen short in that prime-time spot the last half-decade.

Oddly enough, this year's flexed in game has nothing on the line for the home side in the Philadelphia Eagles, as they are the only NFC East team without a chance at winning the division this week.

The Eagles are in the spoiler role against Washington with rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts getting his third start, and the team that wins the Dallas/N.Y. Giants game earlier in the day will become the biggest Eagles fans out there.

Who knows, maybe the home side having nothing to lose is what helps break that SNF Week 17 streak for home teams.

For now, let's get to what I've found floating out there for the week, as they are both Week 17 and futures applicable.

Who's Hot

17 of the past 20 Super Bowl participants (aka since 2010), have won SU in Week 17 of that season

This can't be considered all that surprising given that at this point in a season, teams that are out of it are in the business of losing to do whatever they can to improve their draft selection.

Playoff bound teams or fringe playoff teams are looking to do everything they can to improve their own path towards a title, so Super Bowl teams winning in the final regular season week should be expected.

Interesting side note here is that of the three teams to lose Week 17 and go on to the Super Bowl that season ? Philadelphia in 2017, New England in 2014, and Baltimore in 2012 ? all won the Super Bowl that year, so keep the Week 17 results in mind as a reference point when the Super Bowl matchup is determined this year.

This past does bring up some interesting dilemmas in future's outlooks though if you wind up on a team you think may have a bunch of guys rest in Week 17 and ultimately losing the ?meaningless? game.

In terms of Super Bowl potential, it may not be as meaningless as it appears.

Last year in Week 17 we saw the Patriots, Seahawks, Vikings, Texans, and Bills all lose, with Seattle and Houston's loss coming to playoff bound squads (San Francisco and Tennessee) in the process.

Houston and Buffalo played a wild 22-19 OT game in the first round of the playoffs before Houston bowed out to Kansas City the next round, the Patriots were shocked at home by Tennessee, and neither Seattle nor Minnesota could manage more than a single win in Wildcard upsets for their squads.

It just seems that a Week 17 loss in whatever form it takes tends to signal the beginning of the end of the year for these teams.

The year before, we saw No. 1 overall seed New Orleans be the only playoff team to lose in Week 17 and they needed to scratch by the Eagles before getting hosed on the no-pass interference call against the Rams in that NFC Championship.

That's a top seed that had everything locked up go through the motions in Week 17.

Could that be a sign of trouble for Kansas City futures this year with them likely resting and mailing it in for Week 17?

Who's Not

Aside from last year's 13-3 O/U record in Week 17, betting every Week 17 game 'under' from 2012-13 through 2018-19 produced a 47-64-1 O/U record vs closing total

Up to you on whether or not to decide if last year's 'over' explosion was an anomaly historically or a potential changing of the guard, but there is just too much history - even dating back prior to 2012 season ? that has me on the side of last year being the outlier and 'unders' still generally the way to look at totals in Week 17 action.

Not once in any of those seven seasons did the Week 17 market as a whole finish with a winning 'over' record, as 8-8 O/U in 2018, and 2016 were the best it got for 'over' bettors.

The fact that those two .500 years combined with last year's 13-3 O/U record could be seen as support for 'overs' starting to connect at a better pace in the final week of the year, but there also wasn't really a whole lot to be decided last year outside of playoff seeding ? as opposed to berths ? like there is this year, and in these win-and-in scenarios, tightness on offense and strong defense tend to work there way into those games.

Over-Under (O/U) Week 17 Results

2019: 13-3
2018: 8-8
2017: 7-9
2016: 8-8
2015: 5-11
2014: 6-10
2013: 6-10

But when 2018 was 8-8 O/U, 2017 finished 7-9 O/U, 2016 came in at 8-8 O/U, 2015 was 5-11 O/U, 2014 and 2013 went 6-10 O/U in Week 17, and 2012 went 7-8-1 O/U, I've got no problem having initial 'under' leans everywhere and weeding out the suspect lines of thought from there.

It's still early in the week and there have already been multiple Week 17 NFL totals move multiple points in both directions.

It's those games I'd start with if 'under' is a serious consideration, looking to potentially poke holes in any 'over' argument for the totals that have already been bumped up ? because now you are getting extra points to work with ? or be willing to fire immediately on the totals that have already moved lower if your own numbers still believe an 'under' play to be applicable.

Chances are you'll be passing more on the latter and spending more time on the former and elsewhere on the board in that scenario, and that's alright too.

Remember, Week 17 brings some wildness to it every season. Why put too much strain on your bankroll during it with the playoffs ? and no motivation issues ? are a week away.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 17
Bruce Marshall

Week 17 of the NFL regular season will offer up a full day of betting action on Sunday, Jan. 3.

We've identified betting trends and angles for all of the 16 matchups.

Sunday, Jan. 3

Washington at Philadelphia
Wash had lost six in a row outright in series prior to opening-day win.
WFT had covered five in a row this season prior to Carolina loss.
Birds just 5-10 vs. line in 2020, 12-20 vs. spread since last season.

Tech Edge: Football team, based on recent trends.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Colts lost on opening day at Jags, in fact have now lost two in a row and 5 of last 7 vs. J?ville.
Jags 443 vs. line last seven TY despite no SU wins since opening day.
Indy just 1-4 vs. spread last five at Lucas Oil.

Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on series trends.

Green Bay at Chicago
Even after Titans win on Sunday night, Pack only 3-4 vs. line last seven TY, Bears have won and covered 3 in a row.
Though Pack 8-1 SU last nine meetings, 5-2 last seven vs. line in series.

Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on series trends.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants
Dallas has won and covered last three TY after dropping 10 of first 12 vs. line.
Cowboys also ?over? 5-1 last six TY, and last four ?over? in series, though G-Men ?under? 11-3-1 in 2020.
Dallas had covered six straight in series before first meeting Oct. 11, but Cowboys still have won last seven SU vs. NY.
G-Men were on 7-1-1 spread run into Thanksgiving week, but only 1-4 vs. line last five.

Tech Edge: Slight to Cowboys, based on recent trends.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pittsburgh has lost last 3 of last 4 SU and dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line TY, with recent slump finally arrested last week vs. Indy.
Steel also ?under? 4-2 last six in 2020.
Though Pitt crushed Browns 38-7 in first meeting back on Oct. 18, and Cleve off loss to Jets, note Brownies 5-1 SU last six TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Browns, based on recent trends.

Tennessee at Houston
After Packers last Sunday night, Titans ?over? 23-6 since Tannehill took over at QB in mid 2019, though Hou on 5-0 ?under? run.
Even after loss at GB, Tenn has covered three of last four on road TY and is 8-5 vs. spread last 13 away.
Texans just 4-9 vs. spread last 13 at home.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Titans, based on ?totals? and team trends.

New Orleans at Carolina
After Vikings game, Saints now ?over? last three TY and 10-5 in 2020.
Road team has covered last four in series; last four also ?over? in series.
Panthers 2-5 vs. line at home TY, 2-8-1 last 11 vs. line at Charlotte.

Tech Edge: Saints and ?over,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

N.Y. Jets at New England
J-Men 6-3 vs. line last ninet TY, while after Bills on Monday, Belichick 4-8 last 12 vs. spread.
Belichick no covers last five as chalk TY, also ?under? 6-0-1 last seven since Nov. 9 win at Jets.
Jets actually 9-5-1 vs. spread last 15 in series.
J-Men on 8-3 ?under? run.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Jets, based on ?totals? and team trends.

Minnesota at Detroit
Vikes no covers last six TY, also ?over? 10-4-1 in 2020, now ?over? 18-7-1 in reg season play since early 2019.
Lions ?over? 9-5-1, have allowed 41 or more in 3 of last 5 TY.
Vikes have won and covered last six in series.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Vikings, based on ?totals? and series trends.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Bucs ?over? 8-6-1 TY, 20-10-1 since Arians arrived LY.
Last five ?over? in series.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Ravens 14-2-1 vs. spread in last six games of season since 2018.
Bengals however a surprising 5-1-1 vs. line at home TY.
Cincy ?over? 5-1 last five TY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

Miami at Buffalo
Dolphins 10-3 SU last 13 TY, also 6-1 last seven as dog in 2020 including Sept. 20 cover vs. Bills.
After Patriots game on Monday, Buff has covered seven in a row in 2020, also ?over? 9-4-2 this season, and last four ?over? in series.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City
Chiefs no covers last seven TY (0-6-1), just 1-4 last five vs. spread at Arrowhead.
Bolts have won last three SU this season though just 9-20-3 vs. spread since late 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chargers, based on recent trends.

Seattle at San Francisco
Teams have split last eight spread decisions.
Even after Cards win, SF just 2-6 vs. spread last eight TY.
Last five ?over? in series.
Even after Rams win, Hawks just 4-7 last ten vs. line TY.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

Las Vegas at Denver
Raiders have covered last six meetings (4-2 SU in those games).
Vegas now ?over? 11-3-1 this season after Miami game, though this series is now ?under? eight in a row!

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on recent ?totals? trends.

Arizona at L.A. Rams
Sean McVay now 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line against Cards.
Big Red 2-6 vs. line last eight TY after SF loss.
Also ?under? 9-5-1 in 2020, and Rams ?under? 11-4 in 2020, though first meeting ?over? on Dec. 6.
Kingsbury 3- 2 as dog TY, 11-5-1 last 17 in role.

Tech Edge: Rams and ?under,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

101WASHINGTON -102 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after a loss in the last 2 seasons.

103JACKSONVILLE -104 INDIANAPOLIS
JACKSONVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after allowing >=30 pts. in the current season.

105GREEN BAY -106 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games after 2 straight overs since 1992.

107DALLAS -108 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a home dog of <=7 in the last 2 seasons.

109PITTSBURGH -110 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season since 1992.

111TENNESSEE -112 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

113NEW ORLEANS -114 CAROLINA
NEW ORLEANS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

115NY JETS -116 NEW ENGLAND
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

117MINNESOTA -118 DETROIT
MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

119ATLANTA -120 TAMPA BAY
ATLANTA is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after gaining 275 or more passing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (6 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 10 - 1) - 1/3/2021, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 14) at INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 3) at CHICAGO (8 - 7) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 206-150 ATS (+41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (6 - 9) at NY GIANTS (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games in January games since 1992.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (12 - 3) at CLEVELAND (10 - 5) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 85-57 ATS (+22.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (10 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 11) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 130-165 ATS (-51.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
HOUSTON is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 4) at CAROLINA (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 13) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 8) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-216 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 212-158 ATS (+38.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-95 ATS (+31.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 9) at DETROIT (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in dome games this season.
MINNESOTA is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (4 - 11) at TAMPA BAY (10 - 5) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (10 - 5) at CINCINNATI (4 - 10 - 1) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (10 - 5) at BUFFALO (11 - 3) - 1/3/2021, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (6 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (14 - 1) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 132-99 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 132-99 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (11 - 4) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 9) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LAS VEGAS (7 - 8) at DENVER (5 - 10) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 45-88 ATS (-51.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 5-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (8 - 7) at LA RAMS (9 - 6) - 1/3/2021, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 5-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 5-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Jacksonville (1-14) @ Indianapolis (10-5)
? Jaguars lost their last 13 games, are 0-3 ATS the last three weeks.
? Jacksonville gave up 31-40-41 points in their last three games.
? Last three weeks, Jacksonville was outscored 56-13 in first half.
? Jaguars are 712-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog, 3-4 TY.
? Jaguars stayed under their team total the last three weeks.
? Last five weeks, Jaguars allowed 177.6 rushing yards/game.

? Colts won three of four, seven of last ten games.
? Indy covered only one of its last five home games.
? Colts are 8-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-5 when they do not.
? Indy is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
? Eight of their last 11 games went over the total.
? Colts are in 5-way tie for last four playoff slots; they need help to get in.

? Jacksonville (+8) upset Indy 27-20 in Week 1, their only win this year.
? Colts outgained Jax 445-241 that day, but were -2 in turnovers.
? Jaguars won seven of last ten series games.
? Jaguars lost six of last seven visits here (29-26/33-13 last two)

Green Bay (12-3) @ Chicago (8-7)
? Packers need win here to get #1 seed, and a bye next week.
? Green Bay won five in row, seven of last eight games.
? Packers scored 32.8 ppg in their last six games,
? Packers are 8-9 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite, 2-3 TY.
? Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
? Packers were outscored in 2nd half in nine of their last 12 games.

? Chicago is in the playoffs if they win this game.
? Bears won last three games, scoring 36.7 ppg.
? Last four games, Chicago scored 15 TD?s on 42 drives.
? Bears is 14-4-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home underdog, 3-1 TY.
? Chicago gained 389+ total yards s in each of its last four games.
? Four of Bears? last five games went over the total.

? Packers won 18 of last 21 series games.
? Green Bay won nine of last ten trips to the Windy City.
? Packers (-8.5) beat Chicago 41-25 in Week 12, running ball for 182 yards.
? Green Bay had five TD?s on seven drives in that game.

Dallas (6-9) @ NY Giants (5-10)
? Dallas won/covered its last three games, scoring 30-41-37 points.
? Cowboys have ten takeaways in those two games (+9)
? Dallas was leading at halftime in six of last eight games.
? Cowboys covered five of their last seven games.
? Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
? Dallas is 4-6 ATS in last ten games as road favorites, 1-1 TY.

? Giants lost last three games, outscored 73-26.
? Giants are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS inside their division.
? Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-6 in first half.
? Big Blue is 0-7 SU when they run ball for less than 100 yards.
? Giants are 3-14 ATS in last 17 games as a home dog, 2-4 this year.
? Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games.

? Winner of this game wins NFC East if Philly wins Sunday night.
? Cowboys won last seven series games.
? Dallas scored 34.3 ppg in winning last three visits here.
? Cowboys (-8.5) beat Giants 37-34 in Week 5; both teams scored a defensive TD.
? Dallas scored 35+ points in last four series games.

Pittsburgh (12-3) @ Cleveland (10-5)
? Mason Rudolph will play QB; Roethlisberger gets a day off.
? Steelers lost three of last four games, after an 11-0 start.
? Pittsburgh is likely to rest other startrs for playoffs next week.
? Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
? Last three games, Steelers were outscored 47-14 in first half.
? Last five games, Pittsburgh averaged 48.4 rushing yards/game.

? Browns? WR?s were out LW (contact tracing); check status here.
? Cleveland won five of their last seven games.
? Browns lost field position in their last eight games.
? Cleveland gave up 29.2 ppg in their last five games.
? Browns need to win to make the playoffs.
? Under is 5-3 in Cleveland?s last eight games.
? Browns are 3-1-1 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.

? Steelers are 13-2-1 in last sixteen series games.
? Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 in last seven series games, 0-1-1 in last two.
? Steelers (-3.5) beat Cleveland 38-7 in Week 6.

Tennessee (9-6) @ Houston (4-11)
? Tennessee split its last four games, is tied for first in AFC South.
? Titans gave up 34-41-40 points in their last three losses.
? Titans are +10 in turnovers this season.
? Tennessee won four of its last six road games SU.
? Over is 5-2 in Titans? last seven games.
? Titans scored 17 TD?s on their last 41 drives.
? Tennessee wins AFC South with a win here.

? Texans lost last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
? Houston is 0-9 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
? Texans are 2-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
? Houston has zero takeaways in last four games (-7).
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
? Texans converted 19 of last 38 third down plays.

? Titans (-3.5) beat Houston 42-36 in Week 6, gaining 601 yards.
? Tennessee ran ball for 283 yards in that game.
? Titans lost seven of last eight visits to Houston.
? Tennessee has won four of last six games overall.
? Titans haven?t swept series with Houston since 2007.

New Orleans (11-4) @ Carolina (5-10)
? New Orleans lost two of last three games, giving up 29.7 ppg.
? Saints can still get bye next week with win and some help.
? New Orleans had 11 first downs on its first 14 plays last week.
? Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
? Saints are tied with Seattle for #2 seed in NFC.
? Last three New Orleans games went over the total.

? Carolina lost three of four, eight of its last ten games.
? Panthers are 5-10 despite a +6 turnover ratio.
? Panthers covered two of seven home games this season.
? Carolina is 0-10 when they allow 23+ points, 5-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
? Last two weeks, Panthers were outscored 13-0 in second half.
? Carolina is 1-5 this year in games decided by 5 or fewer points.

? Saints (-7) beat Carolina 27-24 in Week 7, converting 12-14 third down plays.
? New Orleans outgained Panthers 415-283.
? Saints won seven of last eight series games; three of their last four wins were by 3 points.
? New Orleans won last three visits here, by 21-3-32 points.

NJ Jets (2-13) @ New England (6-9)
? Jets won last two games after an 0-13 start; they fired the coach Tuesday.
? Jets have only one turnover in last three games (+3)
? Jets have been outscored 127-77 in 2nd half of their last ten games.
? Jets are 2-13, but their turnover ratio is +2.
? Jets are 2-5 ATS on the road this season.
? Under is 8-3 in their last eleven games.

? Last three games, Patriots were outscored 43-6 in second half.
? New England lost last three games, are out of playoffs for first time since ?08.
? Last three games, Patriots have one TD on 28 drives (12 three/outs).
? New England trailed at halftime in nine of its last 12 games.
? Patriots converted only 9 of last 34 third down plays.
? Patriots are 2-4 ATS as favorites TY; last time they were favored was Week 11.
? Under is 9-3 in their last dozen games.

? New England won last nine series games.
? Patriots (-9.5) beat Jets 30-27 in Meadowlands in Week 9.
? Jets led that game 20-10 at the half; Patriots ran ball for 159 yards.
? Jets lost last nine visits to Foxboro, last four by 16+ points.

Minnesota (6-9) @ Detroit (5-10)
? Vikings lost last three games SU, are 0-6 ATS in last six.
? Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
? Vikings lost field position by 10+ yards in seven games this year; they won field position once all season.
? Minnesota allowed 32.2 ppg in its last six games.
? Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite, 1-0 TY.
? Six of seven Viking road games stayed under the total.

? Lions allowed 27+ points in eight of its last nine games.
? Detroit lost three in row, seven of last nine games.
? Lions are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
? Lions are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as home underdogs, 1-4 TY.
? Last two weeks, Detroit is minus-5 in turnovers
? Six of last nine Lion games went over the total.

? Vikings (-3) beat Detroit 34-20 in Week 9, running ball for 275 yards.
? Minnesota averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt, was +3 in turnovers.
? Vikings won last six series games, winning last three visits here, by 7-18-12 points.

Atlanta (4-11) @ Tampa Bay (10-5)
? Falcons lost their last four games, by 5-3-4-3 points.
? In their last ten games, Atlanta trailed twice at halftime.
? Last three games, Atlanta was outscored 51-17 in second half.
? Falcons are 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
? Atlanta is 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road dog, 5-3 TY.
? Nine of their last 12 games stayed under the total.

? Buccaneers won last three games, scoring 26-31-47 points.
? Last five games, Bucs converted 33-70 third down plays.
? Last four games, Bucs outscored teams 73-32 in second half.
? Tampa Bay is 6-14-3 ATS in last 23 games as home favorites, 2-2-1 TY
? Tampa Bay is 10-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

? Falcons won five of last seven series games, winning last four visits here.
? Tampa Bay (-6.5) won first meeting 31-27 two weeks ago; they were down 17-0 at halftime.
? Average total in last nine series games: 57.7.

Baltimore (10-5) @ Cincinnati (3-11-1)
? Ravens need win here to make the playoffs.
? Baltimore won its last four games, scoring 37 ppg.
? Baltimore scored 18 TD?s on their last 37 drives.
? Ravens lost field position in only one game this season.
? Over is 3-1 in Baltimore?s last four games.
? Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as road favorites, 3-2 TY.

? Cincinnati won its last two games, scoring 27-37 points.
? Bengals ran ball for 152-169 yards last two weeks.
? Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS as a home underdog this year.
? Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last ten games.
? Last seven games. Cincinnati was outscored 100-47 in 2nd half.
? Three of their last four home games stayed under the total.

? Baltimore (-12) beat Cincy 27-3 in Week 5, running ball for 161 yards.
? Ravens outgained them 331-205, scored a defensive TD.
? Ravens won last four series games, by average score of 31-18.
? Baltimore lost six of its last eight visits to Cincinnati.

Miami (10-5) @ Buffalo (12-3)
? Dolphins won/covered nine of their last 11 games.
? Dolphins still need to win to make the playoffs.
? Miami is 3-5 this season when they allow more than 17 points.
? Last five years, Miami is 2-3 ATS as a road favorite, 1-2 TY.
? Dolphins have 17 takeaways in last eight games (+10)
? Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

? Bills don?t need to win, may rest some players here.
? Buffalo won eight of its last nine games, covered last seven.
? Bills outscored last six opponents 128-61 in first half.
? Bills scored 24+ points in 11 of their 12 wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
? Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

? Bills (-5.5) won 31-28 in Miami in Week 2- they threw for 413 yards.
? Buffalo won last four series games, scoring 35.3 ppg.
? Dolphins lost last three visits to Buffalo, by 8-25-10 points.

LA Chargers (6-9) @ Kansas City (14-1)
? Chargers won their last three games, all in the last minute.
? Bolts have six takeaways in last three games (+5).
? harger covered last three games; they were 3-7-2 ATS in first 12 tilts.
? Chargers are 3-5-2 ATS in last 10 games as road dogs, 2-2-1 TY.
? Four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.
? LA gave up 27+ points in 10 of its last 12 games.

? Kansas City has top seed clinch, will rest guys here.
? Chiefs won their last ten games, are 0-6-1 ATS in last seven.
? Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 3-4 TY.
? Last seven games, Kansas City allowed 24.6 ppg
? Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
? Under is 8-6-1 in Kansas City games this season.

? Chiefs trailed 14-6 at half, beat Chargers 23-20 in OT in Week 2.
? LA ran ball for 183 yards, that day, averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt.
? Kansas City won 12 of last 13 series games.
? Chargers lost five of last six visits to Arrowhead.

Seattle (11-4) @ San Francisco (6-9)
? Seahawks can still get #1 seed if Green Bay loses.
? Seattle won five of its last six games overall.
? Last four games, Seahawks allowed 12.2 ppg.
? Last six games, Seahawks outscored foes 77-27 in first half.
? In their last three games, Seattle allowed two TD?s on 30 drives.
? Last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.

? 49ers lost six of their last eight games SU.
? 3rd-string QB Beathard starts here; ex-Cardinal Rosen is new backup.
? SF is 6-16 SU in last 21 games Garoppolo didn?t play.
? 49ers allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 34.0 ppg in their losses.
? 49ers turned ball over ten times in last four games (-6)
? 49ers covered twice in their last eight games.

? Seahawks (-3) beat 49ers 37-27 in Week 8, converting 9-15 on third down.
? Seattle won 12 of last 14 series games, winning last five visits here.
? Average total in last five series games: 52.

Las Vegas (7-8) @ Denver (5-10)
? Las Vegas lost five of last six games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
? Last six games, Raiders are allowing 20 ppg, just in second half.
? Raiders turned ball over 12 times in last five games (-8)
? Las Vegas doesn?t have a takeaway in its last three games.
? Over is 12-3 in Raider games this season.
? Last six games, Las Vegas allowed 21 TD?s on 60 drives.

? Denver lost seven of their last nine games.
? Broncos was outscored 79-22 in their last two home games.
? Broncos are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
? Denver turned ball over 21 times (-13) in their last ten games.
? Last two games, opponents have 16 plays of 20+ yards; Broncos have two.
? Three of their last four home games went over the total.

? Raiders (-4) routed Broncos 37-12 in Week 10.
? Raiders were +5 in turnovers, ran ball for 203 yards that day.
? Las Vegas won three of last four series games, but lost last four visits here.

Arizona (8-7) @ Rams (9-6)
? Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight games SU.
? Cardinals covered twice in their last eight games.
? Arizona needs win here/Chicago loss to make playoffs.
? Last two games, Redbirds converted 7-26 third down plays.
? Under is 4-2 in last six Cardinal games.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in 10 of its 15 games.

? Goff, Kupp, Henderson are all out for LA?s offense.
? Backup QB Wolford gets his first NFL start here.
? In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
? Rams need a win/tie or a Green Bay win to make the playoffs.
? Ten of LA?s last 12 games stayed under the total.
? Rams lost two of their last three home games.

? Rams (-3) won 38-28 in Glendale in Week 14, outgaining Arizona 463-232.
? Cardinals averaged 3.4 yards/pass attempt that day.
? Rams won last seven series games, six of them by 10+ points.
? Arizona lost 34-0/31-24 in last two visits to LA.

Washington (6-9) @ Philadelphia (4-10-1)
? QB Haskins got released; Smith/Heinicke will play QB here.
? Washington won four of its last six games. (5-1 ATS)
? Washington outscored last ten opponents 152-44 in second half.
? Last four years, Washington is 1-3 ATS as road favorites.
? Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Washington games.
? Last six weeks, Washington allowed 16.2 ppg.

? Eagles lost six of last seven games; they won three of last four at home.
? Philly gained 413-422-477 TY in Hurts? first threeo starts at QB.
? Last four games, Philly allowed 483.5 yards/game.
? Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-10-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Last three games, Eagles were outscored 45-13 in second half.
? Last three Philly games went over the total.

? Washington (+5.5) beat Philly 27-17 in Week 1; they were +3 in turnovers.
? Series has been swept the last five years.
? Eagles won six of last seven series games.
? Washington last last three visits here, by 10-15-5 points.