CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !
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Vikings vs. Seahawks Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
Fresh off their first win of the 2020 season, the Minnesota Vikings head out West to take on the yet-to-be defeated Seattle Seahawks.
Minnesota's been here each of the past two seasons and lost straight up and against the spread both times, but this year's atmosphere there is nothing like what the Vikings had to deal with in the past and hopefully that's something Vikings fans can successfully hang their hat on this week.
That's because they've still got to find a way to slow down quarterback Russell Wilson, who's already one of the front-runners for the Most Valuable Player award this season.
Seattle's scored at least 30 points in all four games, have gone 4-0 ATS as well, and yet have been outgained in yards in three of the four wins, and haven't won any of their past three by more than eight points. That's the Russell Wilson effect.
Betting Resources
Week 5 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
The Vikings are coming off their first win of the season as Minnesota heads west to battle Seattle. (AP)
Line Movements
So it won't be easy for the Vikings in the slightest, but Seattle has allowed 30 or more in two of those past three wins, and if the Dolphins didn't keep settling for short field goals last week it likely would have been three in a row.
So no recent wins by more than eight points, routinely breaking even (or worse) in the total yardage battle, 4-0 ATS and opening up as a -9 favorite for this game.
Have we reached the point where Seattle's prices are too steep to be playing with? Early bettors certainly thought so with this point spread now sitting at just a single touchdown.
Spread: Seattle -7
Money-Line: Seattle -335, Minnesota +265
Total: 57
2020 Betting Stats
Minnesota
Overall: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.5 (Rank T-14)
Defense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 26)
Seattle
Overall: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 35.5 (Rank 2)
Defense PPG: 27.3 (Rank 21)
Handicapping the Total
Through four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks already have plenty of signs that suggest they are what they appear to be: a team that scores 30 and gives up nearly that.
Eventually that should change ? it's got to on defense if Seattle wants to keep winning, and how long can Wilson keep playing like this on offense ? so it's all about trying to figure out if we've hit the peak or not with these Seattle totals. This number had some early 'under' love to it already as well when it was a shade or two higher.
Last year's game was a 37-30 win for Seattle, while 2018's contest went 21-7 in favor of the Seahawks, so we've seen these teams play out on both ends of the total spectrum.
Still not entirely sure Minnesota's offense is as good as it's looked in terms of having three of four games scoring in the 30's, and a 1-3 SU record despite that speaks to what the defense has done this year.
There is no way a defensive guy like Zimmer is happy with that, but how confident can you be expecting it to change against Russell Wilson. I guess facing Deshaun Watson last week was beneficial in terms of prepping for similarities, but the Vikings defense still nearly coughed up that game in the 2nd half.
Utilizing Dalvin Cook and the running game to keep Russell Wilson and their own defense off the field is something I expect to see from the Vikings in this one, and with a general belief that league-wide scoring is nearing its peak, following that early move and looking 'under' is the only way I'd go here.
Minnesota is on a 7-17 O/U run as an underdog, and probably aren't as comfortable in a gunslinger's game where they are on the side of Kirk Cousins in the Cousins vs Wilson battle.
Seattle knows things have to tighten up on defense to sustain this positioning in the standings, and it's not like the Vikings offense isn't known to shoot itself in the foot at times.
Head-to-Head History
Dec. 2, 2019 - Seattle 37 vs. Minnesota 30, Seahawks -2.5, Over 48
Dec. 10, 2018 - Seattle 21 vs. Minnesota 7, Seahawks -3, Under 45
Handicapping the Side
Similar to last week's play on the Eagles and the points versus San Francisco, I'm not sure this week's NFC West side involved in SNF is really worth the line that's attached to their name.
A record of 4-0 both SU and ATS definitely jumps off the page, but they aren't blowing away teams and could just be in the middle of riding the ultimate heater their QB is on. Four weeks may or may not be too early to tell for sure, but I've got no interest in being on the chalky side of that proposition while I try to find out.
Remember, it's the 4-0 SU and ATS that jumps out, so no matter what, the Vikings are looking at this as a litmus test game for them and they really can't afford too many failures on that front after starting 1-3 SU.
Yes, it's Wilson, but they've also been in this exact position the past two years ? on the road, in Seattle ? and that's not a bad thing. Less noise is only going to help with the signals on both sides of the ball, and to have as much self scouting film on what has worked and what hasn't on Wilson in the past 24 months as they do ? where he's been nearly as great ? is invaluable as well.
Trusting the Vikings to execute on a high level is another ask, but there is plenty of wiggle room for a few errors there with this number being what it is. Remember, Seattle's defense is still trying to find any resemblance of their best selves, and a typical 2020 game for the Seahawks defense combined with a rough start for Wilson and the offense should end up in a Vikings outright win.
Those who aren't risk averse may want to go that route, but I'll stay a little more conservative instead.
Key Injuries
Minnesota
CB Kris Boyd: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Holton Hill: Foot - Questionable
WR K.J. Osborn: Hamstring - Out
WR Tajae Sharpe: Illness - Questionable
LB Troy Dye: Foot - Out
LB Anthony Barr: Pectoral - Out
Seattle
G Mike Iupati: Knee - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Hip - Questionable
RB Carlos Hyde: Shoulder - Questionable
S Delano Hill: Back - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Questionable
LB Jordyn Brooks: Knee - Questionable
S Jamal Adams: Groin - Out
Matt Blunt
Fresh off their first win of the 2020 season, the Minnesota Vikings head out West to take on the yet-to-be defeated Seattle Seahawks.
Minnesota's been here each of the past two seasons and lost straight up and against the spread both times, but this year's atmosphere there is nothing like what the Vikings had to deal with in the past and hopefully that's something Vikings fans can successfully hang their hat on this week.
That's because they've still got to find a way to slow down quarterback Russell Wilson, who's already one of the front-runners for the Most Valuable Player award this season.
Seattle's scored at least 30 points in all four games, have gone 4-0 ATS as well, and yet have been outgained in yards in three of the four wins, and haven't won any of their past three by more than eight points. That's the Russell Wilson effect.
Betting Resources
Week 5 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
The Vikings are coming off their first win of the season as Minnesota heads west to battle Seattle. (AP)
Line Movements
So it won't be easy for the Vikings in the slightest, but Seattle has allowed 30 or more in two of those past three wins, and if the Dolphins didn't keep settling for short field goals last week it likely would have been three in a row.
So no recent wins by more than eight points, routinely breaking even (or worse) in the total yardage battle, 4-0 ATS and opening up as a -9 favorite for this game.
Have we reached the point where Seattle's prices are too steep to be playing with? Early bettors certainly thought so with this point spread now sitting at just a single touchdown.
Spread: Seattle -7
Money-Line: Seattle -335, Minnesota +265
Total: 57
2020 Betting Stats
Minnesota
Overall: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.5 (Rank T-14)
Defense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 26)
Seattle
Overall: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 35.5 (Rank 2)
Defense PPG: 27.3 (Rank 21)
Handicapping the Total
Through four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks already have plenty of signs that suggest they are what they appear to be: a team that scores 30 and gives up nearly that.
Eventually that should change ? it's got to on defense if Seattle wants to keep winning, and how long can Wilson keep playing like this on offense ? so it's all about trying to figure out if we've hit the peak or not with these Seattle totals. This number had some early 'under' love to it already as well when it was a shade or two higher.
Last year's game was a 37-30 win for Seattle, while 2018's contest went 21-7 in favor of the Seahawks, so we've seen these teams play out on both ends of the total spectrum.
Still not entirely sure Minnesota's offense is as good as it's looked in terms of having three of four games scoring in the 30's, and a 1-3 SU record despite that speaks to what the defense has done this year.
There is no way a defensive guy like Zimmer is happy with that, but how confident can you be expecting it to change against Russell Wilson. I guess facing Deshaun Watson last week was beneficial in terms of prepping for similarities, but the Vikings defense still nearly coughed up that game in the 2nd half.
Utilizing Dalvin Cook and the running game to keep Russell Wilson and their own defense off the field is something I expect to see from the Vikings in this one, and with a general belief that league-wide scoring is nearing its peak, following that early move and looking 'under' is the only way I'd go here.
Minnesota is on a 7-17 O/U run as an underdog, and probably aren't as comfortable in a gunslinger's game where they are on the side of Kirk Cousins in the Cousins vs Wilson battle.
Seattle knows things have to tighten up on defense to sustain this positioning in the standings, and it's not like the Vikings offense isn't known to shoot itself in the foot at times.
Head-to-Head History
Dec. 2, 2019 - Seattle 37 vs. Minnesota 30, Seahawks -2.5, Over 48
Dec. 10, 2018 - Seattle 21 vs. Minnesota 7, Seahawks -3, Under 45
Handicapping the Side
Similar to last week's play on the Eagles and the points versus San Francisco, I'm not sure this week's NFC West side involved in SNF is really worth the line that's attached to their name.
A record of 4-0 both SU and ATS definitely jumps off the page, but they aren't blowing away teams and could just be in the middle of riding the ultimate heater their QB is on. Four weeks may or may not be too early to tell for sure, but I've got no interest in being on the chalky side of that proposition while I try to find out.
Remember, it's the 4-0 SU and ATS that jumps out, so no matter what, the Vikings are looking at this as a litmus test game for them and they really can't afford too many failures on that front after starting 1-3 SU.
Yes, it's Wilson, but they've also been in this exact position the past two years ? on the road, in Seattle ? and that's not a bad thing. Less noise is only going to help with the signals on both sides of the ball, and to have as much self scouting film on what has worked and what hasn't on Wilson in the past 24 months as they do ? where he's been nearly as great ? is invaluable as well.
Trusting the Vikings to execute on a high level is another ask, but there is plenty of wiggle room for a few errors there with this number being what it is. Remember, Seattle's defense is still trying to find any resemblance of their best selves, and a typical 2020 game for the Seahawks defense combined with a rough start for Wilson and the offense should end up in a Vikings outright win.
Those who aren't risk averse may want to go that route, but I'll stay a little more conservative instead.
Key Injuries
Minnesota
CB Kris Boyd: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Holton Hill: Foot - Questionable
WR K.J. Osborn: Hamstring - Out
WR Tajae Sharpe: Illness - Questionable
LB Troy Dye: Foot - Out
LB Anthony Barr: Pectoral - Out
Seattle
G Mike Iupati: Knee - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Hip - Questionable
RB Carlos Hyde: Shoulder - Questionable
S Delano Hill: Back - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Questionable
LB Jordyn Brooks: Knee - Questionable
S Jamal Adams: Groin - Out
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS
MIA at SF 04:05 PM
SF -8.5
O 50.5
+500 +500
IND at CLE 04:25 PM
IND +1.0
U 49.5
+500 +500
NYG at DAL 04:25 PM
NYG +7.5
O 52.0
+500 +500
MIN at SEA 08:20 PM
SEA -6.5
O 54.5
+500 +500
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS
MIA at SF 04:05 PM
SF -8.5
O 50.5
+500 +500
IND at CLE 04:25 PM
IND +1.0
U 49.5
+500 +500
NYG at DAL 04:25 PM
NYG +7.5
O 52.0
+500 +500
MIN at SEA 08:20 PM
SEA -6.5
O 54.5
+500 +500
COMPLETED PICKS
Past Completed Picks
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals........60-68-1.......46.87%.....-73.00
Past Completed Picks
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals........60-68-1.......46.87%.....-73.00
Wrapping up a busy sports Sunday??
Raiders 40, Kansas City 32
? Raiders? five first half drives: 27 plays, 333 yards, 24 points.
? Raiders in 4th quarter: 224 plays, 118 yards, 17 points.
? Las Vegas snaps a 7-game losing streak in Arrowhead.
? All five Raiders games went over the total.
? Chiefs? first four drives: 25 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
? Chiefs? last eight drives: 42 plays, 181 yards, 11 points.
? Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh 38, Eagles 29
? Philly is giving up 29 ppg this year, allowing 18 TD?s on 54 drives.
? Eagles are off to a 1-3-1 start; they led three of the games at halftime.
? Teams combined to convert 21-29 third down plays in this game.
? NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division.
? Steelers won their first four games, scoring 26-26-28-38 points.
? Four teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 2-13-1.
? Claypool caught 7 balls for 110 yards, three TD?s, also ran for a TD.
? Home team won seven of last eight series games.
Rams 30, Washington 10
? Rams won four of first five games; this was their third east coast game in last four weeks.
? Rams? first three drives: 23 plays, 234 yards, 20 points.
? Under McVay, LA is 14-8 ATS as a road favorite.
? Second half was played in a steady rain; tough weather for both offenses.
? Redskins in second half: 22 plays, minus-6 yards, no first downs.
? Washington lost its last four games, giving up 31.3 ppg.
? Redskins have been outscored 95-34 in the first half this season.
? Kudos to Alex Smith who played for first time in over 600 days after shattering his leg in a 2018 game. Tough guy,
Houston 30, Jaguars 14
? Jaguars started two drives in Houston territory, didn?t score either time.
? Jaguars lost their last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
? Jacksonville is 5-10-1 ATS in last sixteen games as a road underdog.
? Jaguars lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position; very unusual.
? Houston gets its first win; they fired their coach last week.
? Watson threw for 359 yards and three TD?s.
? Cooks caught eight footballs for 161 yards.
? Texans won five in row, nine of last 11 series games
Cardinals 30, NJ Jets 10
? Murray threw for 380 yards; Hopkins caught six balls for 131 yards.
? Cardinals outgained the Jets, 496-255.
? Four of five Arizona games stayed under the total.
? Jets lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
? Jets scored only 32 points in their last ten red zone drives.
? New York is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.
Baltimore 27, Bengals 3
? Bengals? first half drives: 31 plays, 80 yards, zero points.
? Cincy converted only 3-16 third down plays.
? Bengals had only one play longer than 19 yards.
? Baltimore scored 27+ points in its four wins, 20 in their loss.
? Four of five Raven games stayed under the total.
? Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
? Baltimore won last four series games, by 3-6-36-24 points.
Panthers 23, Atlanta 16
? Carolina won its last three games, outscoring foes 59-21 in first half.
? Panthers converted 29-59 third down plays this season.
? Carolina snap a 5-game losing streak to the Falcons.
? Falcons lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
? Atlanta had a 92-yard TD drive on its first drive, but that was their only touchdown.
? Falcons scored only 3 points on two red zone drives in 4th quarter.
? Atlanta is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.
Dolphins 43, San Francisco 17
? Miami scored a TD, had three FG?s in last 4:38 of the first half.
? Miami scored 31.3 ppg in its last four games (12 TD?s on 39 drives).
? Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards, three TD?s.
? Road team won all five San Francisco games.
? Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20-17 in their losses.
? QB Garoppolo played first half, Beathard the second- they have QB issues.
? 49ers are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Dallas 37, NJ Giants 34
? Giants led 17-3 midway thru 2nd quarter.
? Both teams scored a defensive touchdown.
? Giants had couple TD?s called back by sketchy penalty calls, one on a fake FG.
? Giants covered 13 of last 16 games as a road underdog.
? Costly win; Dak Prescott has a compound fracture of his ankle.
? Cowboys gave up 40 points/game the last four weeks.
? Last four Dallas games went over the total.
? Cowboys won last seven series games.
Cleveland 32, Colts 23
? Colts were in red zone four times, scored only 16 points.
? Rivers threw a pick-6 in 3rd quarter; Colts ran kickoff back for a TD.
? Both QB?s in this game threw two INT?s.
? Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 35-34-49-32 points.
? Cleveland?s first half drives: 45 plays, 289 yards, two TD?s, two FG?s.
? Browns converted 10-17 third down plays.
? AFC North teams are 10-2-1 ATS outside their division.
Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle (4-0)
? Minnesota lost three of first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
? Vikings ran ball for 228-162 yards in last two games.
? Minnesota has 22 plays of 20+ yards this year, which is good.
? Vikings are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
? NFC North teams are 8-4 ATS outside their division.
? Seahawks won/covered their first four games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
? All four Seahawks games went over the total.
? Seattle is 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
? NFC West teams are 11-6 ATS outside their division.
? Seahawks won their last six games with Minnesota; they beat Vikings 37-30 LY.
? Vikings lost their last four visits to Seattle, all by 7+ points.
Lakers 106, Miami 93 (LA wins NBA title, 4-2)
? Lakers win their 17th NBA title.
? This game wasn?t close; LA led 64-36 at halftime.
? Lebron James is third player ever to win an NBA title for three different teams.
Raiders 40, Kansas City 32
? Raiders? five first half drives: 27 plays, 333 yards, 24 points.
? Raiders in 4th quarter: 224 plays, 118 yards, 17 points.
? Las Vegas snaps a 7-game losing streak in Arrowhead.
? All five Raiders games went over the total.
? Chiefs? first four drives: 25 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
? Chiefs? last eight drives: 42 plays, 181 yards, 11 points.
? Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh 38, Eagles 29
? Philly is giving up 29 ppg this year, allowing 18 TD?s on 54 drives.
? Eagles are off to a 1-3-1 start; they led three of the games at halftime.
? Teams combined to convert 21-29 third down plays in this game.
? NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division.
? Steelers won their first four games, scoring 26-26-28-38 points.
? Four teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 2-13-1.
? Claypool caught 7 balls for 110 yards, three TD?s, also ran for a TD.
? Home team won seven of last eight series games.
Rams 30, Washington 10
? Rams won four of first five games; this was their third east coast game in last four weeks.
? Rams? first three drives: 23 plays, 234 yards, 20 points.
? Under McVay, LA is 14-8 ATS as a road favorite.
? Second half was played in a steady rain; tough weather for both offenses.
? Redskins in second half: 22 plays, minus-6 yards, no first downs.
? Washington lost its last four games, giving up 31.3 ppg.
? Redskins have been outscored 95-34 in the first half this season.
? Kudos to Alex Smith who played for first time in over 600 days after shattering his leg in a 2018 game. Tough guy,
Houston 30, Jaguars 14
? Jaguars started two drives in Houston territory, didn?t score either time.
? Jaguars lost their last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
? Jacksonville is 5-10-1 ATS in last sixteen games as a road underdog.
? Jaguars lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position; very unusual.
? Houston gets its first win; they fired their coach last week.
? Watson threw for 359 yards and three TD?s.
? Cooks caught eight footballs for 161 yards.
? Texans won five in row, nine of last 11 series games
Cardinals 30, NJ Jets 10
? Murray threw for 380 yards; Hopkins caught six balls for 131 yards.
? Cardinals outgained the Jets, 496-255.
? Four of five Arizona games stayed under the total.
? Jets lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
? Jets scored only 32 points in their last ten red zone drives.
? New York is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.
Baltimore 27, Bengals 3
? Bengals? first half drives: 31 plays, 80 yards, zero points.
? Cincy converted only 3-16 third down plays.
? Bengals had only one play longer than 19 yards.
? Baltimore scored 27+ points in its four wins, 20 in their loss.
? Four of five Raven games stayed under the total.
? Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
? Baltimore won last four series games, by 3-6-36-24 points.
Panthers 23, Atlanta 16
? Carolina won its last three games, outscoring foes 59-21 in first half.
? Panthers converted 29-59 third down plays this season.
? Carolina snap a 5-game losing streak to the Falcons.
? Falcons lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
? Atlanta had a 92-yard TD drive on its first drive, but that was their only touchdown.
? Falcons scored only 3 points on two red zone drives in 4th quarter.
? Atlanta is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.
Dolphins 43, San Francisco 17
? Miami scored a TD, had three FG?s in last 4:38 of the first half.
? Miami scored 31.3 ppg in its last four games (12 TD?s on 39 drives).
? Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards, three TD?s.
? Road team won all five San Francisco games.
? Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20-17 in their losses.
? QB Garoppolo played first half, Beathard the second- they have QB issues.
? 49ers are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Dallas 37, NJ Giants 34
? Giants led 17-3 midway thru 2nd quarter.
? Both teams scored a defensive touchdown.
? Giants had couple TD?s called back by sketchy penalty calls, one on a fake FG.
? Giants covered 13 of last 16 games as a road underdog.
? Costly win; Dak Prescott has a compound fracture of his ankle.
? Cowboys gave up 40 points/game the last four weeks.
? Last four Dallas games went over the total.
? Cowboys won last seven series games.
Cleveland 32, Colts 23
? Colts were in red zone four times, scored only 16 points.
? Rivers threw a pick-6 in 3rd quarter; Colts ran kickoff back for a TD.
? Both QB?s in this game threw two INT?s.
? Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 35-34-49-32 points.
? Cleveland?s first half drives: 45 plays, 289 yards, two TD?s, two FG?s.
? Browns converted 10-17 third down plays.
? AFC North teams are 10-2-1 ATS outside their division.
Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle (4-0)
? Minnesota lost three of first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
? Vikings ran ball for 228-162 yards in last two games.
? Minnesota has 22 plays of 20+ yards this year, which is good.
? Vikings are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
? NFC North teams are 8-4 ATS outside their division.
? Seahawks won/covered their first four games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
? All four Seahawks games went over the total.
? Seattle is 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
? NFC West teams are 11-6 ATS outside their division.
? Seahawks won their last six games with Minnesota; they beat Vikings 37-30 LY.
? Vikings lost their last four visits to Seattle, all by 7+ points.
Lakers 106, Miami 93 (LA wins NBA title, 4-2)
? Lakers win their 17th NBA title.
? This game wasn?t close; LA led 64-36 at halftime.
? Lebron James is third player ever to win an NBA title for three different teams.
Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+10.5, ML +575) at Chiefs, 40-32
Dolphins (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 43-17
Bears (+3.5, ML +170) vs. Buccaneers, 20-19
Panthers (+2.5, ML +110) at Falcons, 23-16
The largest favorites to cover
Ravens (-12.5) vs. Bengals, 27-3
Steelers (-7.5) vs. Eagles, 38-29
Cardinals (-7) at Jets, 30-10
Rams (-7) at Washington, 30-10
Texans (-6.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-14
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks game on Sunday Night Football was a strange game. For bettors, it was a roller coaster ride full of emotions, good or bad depending on which side of the line or total you were on.
The Vikings (+7) opened up a 13-0 lead at halftime, and moneyline bettors (+263) and 'under' (54) were both feeling really good about themselves. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said something super inspiring at halftime, because the Seahawks came on out the break on fire. They scored 21 unanswered points in a span of 113 seconds, opening up a 21-13 lead at the midway point of the third quarter. Suddenly, under bettors weren't feeling very good, Minnesota moneyline bettors and side bettors were feeling awful, and the Seahawks were covering for the first time all evening.
The good feeling for Seattle side bettors was short-lived, though. While the struggles of Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in primetime games is well documented, he had a pretty good evening, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He needed to pick up his play, too, as oft-injured star RB Dalvin Cook went down with a groin injury in the third quarter and was unable to return. That was one of the biggest injuries in all of Week 5, but not THE biggest (see below). Anyway, it's uncertain how long Cook will be sidelined.
The Vikings answered back with 13 unanswered points of their own, taking a 26-21 lead. Then, late in the fourth quarter, head coach Mike Zimmer made a quizzical move. Rather than kicking a field goal, inside the red zone on a 4th and 1, he elected to go for it. Mind you, Cook, their backfield hammer was sidelined. And to be fair, RB Alexander Mattison filled in admirably, even hitting triple digits in a reserve role. But the Vikings were stuffed trying to run it, rather than make it an eight-point game.
The Seahawks have MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson under center, and he calmly and coolly led the team down the field. With 15 seconds remaining, Wilson hit WR DK Metcalf in the right corner of the end zone for a touchdown, as Seattle took a 27-26 lead. For Vikings moneyline bettors, their heart was broken, and it was like losing a second time, after they blew a big lead earlier. For over bettors, they sat on the edge of their seats during the two-point conversion. It didn't happen, though, and wasn't even close. The Vikings never really threatened when they got the ball back with 15 seconds, and under bettors all cashed, regardless if they bet the number early in the week in the high 50's, or at the close of 54. All under tickets were winners.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board among the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (44) game. This Keystone State battle ended up being a wild affair featuring plenty of scoring. Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool became just the third rookie in NFL history to record four touchdowns in a single game, scoring all but one of the home team's touchdowns. This game saw each team score at least seven points in every quarter, totaling 67 in all. With the exception of the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (52) game, the Eagles-Steelers was the highest-scoring game on Sunday.
The highest total on Sunday's board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (54.5) game. The Texans made a change at the top spot, firing Bill O'Brien after last week's disappointing loss to the Vikings. The Texans looked like a brand new team under interim head coach Romeo Crennel, firing off a 30-14 victory as the 'under' connected. The two teams played a scoreless first quarter, one of just two scoreless quarters either on Thursday or Sunday in NFL Week 5. Believe it or not, the Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs game (54.5) featured the other one. The Raiders fired off a 40-32 win, so it was rather surprising that one of the quarters saw zero total points. Of course, the game-total over and first-half over was helped out by 38 total points in a wild second quarter.
The two primetime games in Week 5 saw the 'under' connect in both. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (44) game saw just 39 total points thanks to 12 total points in the final 30 minutes. At least first-half total (22.5) bettors hit the over with 27 points. We already covered the SNF game, which also went under, with the Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (50) game still to be played. Technically the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (53) game, scheduled for Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET is also going to be in primetime now.
So far this season the over is 6-9 (40.0%) across 15 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.
Injury Report
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys quarterback was having an MVP caliber season heading into Week 5. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 or more yards in three consecutive games last week. In Sunday's game, he was making headlines for another reason. He suffered a major right ankle injury, and there were reports the bone poked through the skin. He was taken immediately to a hospital and has already underwent successful surgery to repair a dislocation and fracture. It sounds like he'll miss a significant amount of time, and QB Andy Dalton will not take over as the signal caller. The former Bengals QB led the team to a comeback win against the New York Giants, 34-31, but it will be interesting to see if there is a stark drop-off on offense. The Cowboys are +3500 in the future odds to win the Super Bowl, as of Monday morning.
Looking Ahead to Week 6
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Bears and Panthers opened with the lowest total on the Week 6 board at 44 points. Chicago hits the road for the second time this season where they have seen the 'over' connect in both outings, going 2-0 SU/ATS while averaging 28.5 points per game. They have allowed 24.5 PPG in those two outings. The Panthers head into this one on a three-game heater, including a 31-21 win and cover as three-point 'dogs in their most recent home game. The 'under' has hit in their past three outings, going 3-0 SU/ATS. They're averaging 25.0 PPG on offense during their three-game win streak, but allowing just 17.7 PPG.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Browns are on their first four-game winning streak since 2009, and they're 4-1 for the first time since the 1994, and they are 3-0 at home to start a season for the first time since 2004. And they scored 32 points in their nine-point win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, giving them 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. All of that scoring will be necessary if they want to cool of the equally hot Steelers, who have fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS start, including 'over' results in each of the past three. The Browns are on a 4-0 'over' run.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The 49ers were drummed at home by a 43-17 score against the Miami Dolphins of all teams, slipping as eight-point favorites for the second consecutive week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury, but was lifted at halftime with the team facing a 30-7 deficit. QB C.J. Beathard finished up, and at least led the team to 10 points. It appears there might be a quarterback controversy brewing in Frisco, or at least a situation worth watching very, very closely. The Rams improved to 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS with a 30-10 road win over Washington, and they might be a perfect 5-0 if not for a phantom DPI against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. The Rams hit the under for the first time in three road games in Week 5. L.A. is allowing just 9.5 PPG over the past two games, and they have yielded 19 or fewer points in four of their five outings.
Arizona Cowboys at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys will take on the 'new-look' Cowboys, as Dalton makes his first start on Monday night. At least he gets one more day to get prepared for his first starting assignment. Dallas enters this game 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS overall, and they have hit the 'over' in four straight outings. Dallas has registered 31 or more points in four straight while giving up 34 or more during the same span. It will be interesting to see if Dalton can keep up the good production on offense. He has GIANT shoes to fill. The Cardinals got well on the road against the hapless Jets, 30-10, and the Cardinals remained the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of its first five games.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+10.5, ML +575) at Chiefs, 40-32
Dolphins (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 43-17
Bears (+3.5, ML +170) vs. Buccaneers, 20-19
Panthers (+2.5, ML +110) at Falcons, 23-16
The largest favorites to cover
Ravens (-12.5) vs. Bengals, 27-3
Steelers (-7.5) vs. Eagles, 38-29
Cardinals (-7) at Jets, 30-10
Rams (-7) at Washington, 30-10
Texans (-6.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-14
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks game on Sunday Night Football was a strange game. For bettors, it was a roller coaster ride full of emotions, good or bad depending on which side of the line or total you were on.
The Vikings (+7) opened up a 13-0 lead at halftime, and moneyline bettors (+263) and 'under' (54) were both feeling really good about themselves. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said something super inspiring at halftime, because the Seahawks came on out the break on fire. They scored 21 unanswered points in a span of 113 seconds, opening up a 21-13 lead at the midway point of the third quarter. Suddenly, under bettors weren't feeling very good, Minnesota moneyline bettors and side bettors were feeling awful, and the Seahawks were covering for the first time all evening.
The good feeling for Seattle side bettors was short-lived, though. While the struggles of Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in primetime games is well documented, he had a pretty good evening, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He needed to pick up his play, too, as oft-injured star RB Dalvin Cook went down with a groin injury in the third quarter and was unable to return. That was one of the biggest injuries in all of Week 5, but not THE biggest (see below). Anyway, it's uncertain how long Cook will be sidelined.
The Vikings answered back with 13 unanswered points of their own, taking a 26-21 lead. Then, late in the fourth quarter, head coach Mike Zimmer made a quizzical move. Rather than kicking a field goal, inside the red zone on a 4th and 1, he elected to go for it. Mind you, Cook, their backfield hammer was sidelined. And to be fair, RB Alexander Mattison filled in admirably, even hitting triple digits in a reserve role. But the Vikings were stuffed trying to run it, rather than make it an eight-point game.
The Seahawks have MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson under center, and he calmly and coolly led the team down the field. With 15 seconds remaining, Wilson hit WR DK Metcalf in the right corner of the end zone for a touchdown, as Seattle took a 27-26 lead. For Vikings moneyline bettors, their heart was broken, and it was like losing a second time, after they blew a big lead earlier. For over bettors, they sat on the edge of their seats during the two-point conversion. It didn't happen, though, and wasn't even close. The Vikings never really threatened when they got the ball back with 15 seconds, and under bettors all cashed, regardless if they bet the number early in the week in the high 50's, or at the close of 54. All under tickets were winners.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board among the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (44) game. This Keystone State battle ended up being a wild affair featuring plenty of scoring. Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool became just the third rookie in NFL history to record four touchdowns in a single game, scoring all but one of the home team's touchdowns. This game saw each team score at least seven points in every quarter, totaling 67 in all. With the exception of the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (52) game, the Eagles-Steelers was the highest-scoring game on Sunday.
The highest total on Sunday's board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (54.5) game. The Texans made a change at the top spot, firing Bill O'Brien after last week's disappointing loss to the Vikings. The Texans looked like a brand new team under interim head coach Romeo Crennel, firing off a 30-14 victory as the 'under' connected. The two teams played a scoreless first quarter, one of just two scoreless quarters either on Thursday or Sunday in NFL Week 5. Believe it or not, the Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs game (54.5) featured the other one. The Raiders fired off a 40-32 win, so it was rather surprising that one of the quarters saw zero total points. Of course, the game-total over and first-half over was helped out by 38 total points in a wild second quarter.
The two primetime games in Week 5 saw the 'under' connect in both. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (44) game saw just 39 total points thanks to 12 total points in the final 30 minutes. At least first-half total (22.5) bettors hit the over with 27 points. We already covered the SNF game, which also went under, with the Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (50) game still to be played. Technically the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (53) game, scheduled for Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET is also going to be in primetime now.
So far this season the over is 6-9 (40.0%) across 15 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.
Injury Report
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys quarterback was having an MVP caliber season heading into Week 5. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 or more yards in three consecutive games last week. In Sunday's game, he was making headlines for another reason. He suffered a major right ankle injury, and there were reports the bone poked through the skin. He was taken immediately to a hospital and has already underwent successful surgery to repair a dislocation and fracture. It sounds like he'll miss a significant amount of time, and QB Andy Dalton will not take over as the signal caller. The former Bengals QB led the team to a comeback win against the New York Giants, 34-31, but it will be interesting to see if there is a stark drop-off on offense. The Cowboys are +3500 in the future odds to win the Super Bowl, as of Monday morning.
Looking Ahead to Week 6
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Bears and Panthers opened with the lowest total on the Week 6 board at 44 points. Chicago hits the road for the second time this season where they have seen the 'over' connect in both outings, going 2-0 SU/ATS while averaging 28.5 points per game. They have allowed 24.5 PPG in those two outings. The Panthers head into this one on a three-game heater, including a 31-21 win and cover as three-point 'dogs in their most recent home game. The 'under' has hit in their past three outings, going 3-0 SU/ATS. They're averaging 25.0 PPG on offense during their three-game win streak, but allowing just 17.7 PPG.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Browns are on their first four-game winning streak since 2009, and they're 4-1 for the first time since the 1994, and they are 3-0 at home to start a season for the first time since 2004. And they scored 32 points in their nine-point win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, giving them 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. All of that scoring will be necessary if they want to cool of the equally hot Steelers, who have fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS start, including 'over' results in each of the past three. The Browns are on a 4-0 'over' run.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The 49ers were drummed at home by a 43-17 score against the Miami Dolphins of all teams, slipping as eight-point favorites for the second consecutive week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury, but was lifted at halftime with the team facing a 30-7 deficit. QB C.J. Beathard finished up, and at least led the team to 10 points. It appears there might be a quarterback controversy brewing in Frisco, or at least a situation worth watching very, very closely. The Rams improved to 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS with a 30-10 road win over Washington, and they might be a perfect 5-0 if not for a phantom DPI against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. The Rams hit the under for the first time in three road games in Week 5. L.A. is allowing just 9.5 PPG over the past two games, and they have yielded 19 or fewer points in four of their five outings.
Arizona Cowboys at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys will take on the 'new-look' Cowboys, as Dalton makes his first start on Monday night. At least he gets one more day to get prepared for his first starting assignment. Dallas enters this game 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS overall, and they have hit the 'over' in four straight outings. Dallas has registered 31 or more points in four straight while giving up 34 or more during the same span. It will be interesting to see if Dalton can keep up the good production on offense. He has GIANT shoes to fill. The Cardinals got well on the road against the hapless Jets, 30-10, and the Cardinals remained the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of its first five games.
NFL odds Week 6: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson
Josh Allen and the Bills stand atop the AFC East at 4-0 SU (3-1 SU), but they've got a tough Week 6 challenge against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City a 3-point road favorite.
There are still two NFL Week 5 games on the docket, but NFL Week 6 odds are on the betting board and already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Buffalo Bills, and the Dallas Cowboys ? minus injured QB Dak Prescott ? host the Arizona Cardinals.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.
NFL Week 6 odds
These are the current NFL Week 6 odds, as of October 11.
Teams on bye: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints
Chiefs at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This matchup was supposed to be the Week 6 Thursday night game. However, it was moved to next Monday, because the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans on Tuesday night, in a game delayed due to Tennessee's COVID situation. The SuperBook moved forward with posting the Chiefs-Bills line, making Kansas City -3 in the wake of its stunning home loss to the Raiders.
"Outside of their destruction of the Ravens a couple weeks ago, the Chiefs have looked very vulnerable," Murray said. "We haven?t moved off the opener here. I think people are hesitant to weigh in on this game, with so many question marks."
Bears at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Carolina nabbed a 23-16 win at Atlanta on Sunday, while Chicago claimed a 20-19 Thursday night home win over Tampa Bay. The SuperBook opened the Panthers -3, and the first move was toward the Bears, as the line ticked to Carolina -2.5 Sunday night.
Lions at Jaguars odds
Opening line
Jaguars +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Jaguars got dumped on the road 30-14 Sunday by the previously winless Texans, while the Lions are coming off their bye week. That was enough for The SuperBook to open Detroit 3-point road chalk, and although the number didn't move, the Lions' price at -3 ticked up to -120.
Falcons at Vikings odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Atlanta finally fired coach Dan Quinn, after Sunday's 23-16 home loss to Carolina left the Falcons at 0-5. Minnesota, meanwhile, gave unbeaten Seattle all it could handle and probably should've won the game, if not for a questionable late decision by coach Mike Zimmer. Instead, the Vikings lost 27-26.
Still, the Vikings are not in Atlanta-like disarray, so The SuperBook opened Minnesota -3.5. Per standard procedure, the line came off the board once the Vikes kicked off at Seattle, and this game will go back up Monday morning.
Texans at Titans odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
The Titans are still trying to battle through their COVID-19 issues, and if all goes well, they'll host the Bills on Tuesday night. So the Texans-Titans line won't hit the board until after the Bills-Titans game.
Washington at Giants odds
Opening line
Giants -3.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Giants, who nearly pulled off an upset at Dallas on Sunday, opened -3.5 against Washington, and there was no movement Sunday night.
Browns at Steelers odds
Opening line
Steelers -4.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The unbeaten Steelers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) opened -4.5 Sunday evening at The SuperBook. However, the game came off the board soon afterward, due to the uncertain status of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.
"We closed this one when it looked like Mayfield (was hurt) late in the win over the Colts," Murray said, alluding to a rib injury that the QB said wouldn't sideline him this week. "Both teams have been impressive. Look for good two-way write here."
Ravens at Eagles odds
Opening line
Eagles +7, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Ravens had no trouble with the Bengals on Sunday, while the Eagles gave the Steelers a good go but fell short. The SuperBook opened Baltimore -7 Sunday evening and moved to -7.5 shortly thereafter.
"Philly looked frisky today in Pittsburgh, but that won?t deter the public," Murray said. "We will need the Eagles again next Sunday."
Bengals at Colts odds
Opening line
Colts -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Indianapolis fell to Cleveland 32-23, but that was more respectable than Cincinnati's 27-3 loss to Baltimore, so The SuperBook opened the Colts nearly double-digit favorites. There was no line movement Sunday night.
Jets at Dolphins odds
Opening line
Dolphins -8, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Miami posted an impressive 43-17 road beatdown of defending NFC champion San Francisco, so the Dolphins opened -8 against the hapless Jets. There was no line movement Sunday night.
Broncos at Patriots odds
Opening line
Patriots -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This game was supposed to take place in Week 5, first on Sunday, then on Monday. But COVID issues in New England booted the matchup to Week 6 Sunday. It's unclear whether Cam Newton will be cleared to start in the aftermath of his COVID diagnosis. The SuperBook opened the Patriots -9.5, and the first move was a full point toward Denver, with New England dipping to -8.5.
Packers at Buccaneers odds
Opening line
Buccaneers +1, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Green Bay is coming off a bye, while Tampa Bay was dealt a Week 5 Thursday night loss at Chicago. The SuperBook opened the Packers -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday evening.
"I'd expect the public to abandon the Bucs in a hurry after that loss to the Bears," Murray said. "The Packers have been coming through for the public all season. We will need the Bucs."
Rams at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened the Rams 3-point road favorites against the defending NFC champion 49ers, who are struggling at 2-3 SU and ATS after getting boatraced by visiting Miam, 43-17.
"The Rams are quietly 4?1, and the 49ers are a mess. If anything, that score today was misleading. Miami dominated them even worse than the score indicated," Murray said. "It?s really hard to handicap the 49ers right now. So many question marks. The public will be happy to lay the Rams here. This game may close even higher, given the schedule spot on Sunday night."
Cardinals at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Cowboys +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Dallas suffered a huge loss during Sunday's 37-34 victory over the Giants, as Dak Prescott broke and dislocated his right ankle, ending his season. With the Cowboys undermanned, The SuperBook opened Arizona a 3-point road favorite, with the first move to Arizona -2.5.
"No Dak, and the injuries are starting to pile up for Dallas," Murray said. "The public has been in love with the Cardinals for weeks. It will be weird needing Dallas as a home 'dog to Arizona in this game, but that will likely be our position next Monday night."
With a healthy Prescott, Murray said the Cowboys would've opened a short favorite against the Cardinals.
Patrick Everson
Josh Allen and the Bills stand atop the AFC East at 4-0 SU (3-1 SU), but they've got a tough Week 6 challenge against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City a 3-point road favorite.
There are still two NFL Week 5 games on the docket, but NFL Week 6 odds are on the betting board and already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Buffalo Bills, and the Dallas Cowboys ? minus injured QB Dak Prescott ? host the Arizona Cardinals.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.
NFL Week 6 odds
These are the current NFL Week 6 odds, as of October 11.
Teams on bye: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints
Chiefs at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This matchup was supposed to be the Week 6 Thursday night game. However, it was moved to next Monday, because the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans on Tuesday night, in a game delayed due to Tennessee's COVID situation. The SuperBook moved forward with posting the Chiefs-Bills line, making Kansas City -3 in the wake of its stunning home loss to the Raiders.
"Outside of their destruction of the Ravens a couple weeks ago, the Chiefs have looked very vulnerable," Murray said. "We haven?t moved off the opener here. I think people are hesitant to weigh in on this game, with so many question marks."
Bears at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Carolina nabbed a 23-16 win at Atlanta on Sunday, while Chicago claimed a 20-19 Thursday night home win over Tampa Bay. The SuperBook opened the Panthers -3, and the first move was toward the Bears, as the line ticked to Carolina -2.5 Sunday night.
Lions at Jaguars odds
Opening line
Jaguars +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Jaguars got dumped on the road 30-14 Sunday by the previously winless Texans, while the Lions are coming off their bye week. That was enough for The SuperBook to open Detroit 3-point road chalk, and although the number didn't move, the Lions' price at -3 ticked up to -120.
Falcons at Vikings odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Atlanta finally fired coach Dan Quinn, after Sunday's 23-16 home loss to Carolina left the Falcons at 0-5. Minnesota, meanwhile, gave unbeaten Seattle all it could handle and probably should've won the game, if not for a questionable late decision by coach Mike Zimmer. Instead, the Vikings lost 27-26.
Still, the Vikings are not in Atlanta-like disarray, so The SuperBook opened Minnesota -3.5. Per standard procedure, the line came off the board once the Vikes kicked off at Seattle, and this game will go back up Monday morning.
Texans at Titans odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
The Titans are still trying to battle through their COVID-19 issues, and if all goes well, they'll host the Bills on Tuesday night. So the Texans-Titans line won't hit the board until after the Bills-Titans game.
Washington at Giants odds
Opening line
Giants -3.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Giants, who nearly pulled off an upset at Dallas on Sunday, opened -3.5 against Washington, and there was no movement Sunday night.
Browns at Steelers odds
Opening line
Steelers -4.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The unbeaten Steelers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) opened -4.5 Sunday evening at The SuperBook. However, the game came off the board soon afterward, due to the uncertain status of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.
"We closed this one when it looked like Mayfield (was hurt) late in the win over the Colts," Murray said, alluding to a rib injury that the QB said wouldn't sideline him this week. "Both teams have been impressive. Look for good two-way write here."
Ravens at Eagles odds
Opening line
Eagles +7, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Ravens had no trouble with the Bengals on Sunday, while the Eagles gave the Steelers a good go but fell short. The SuperBook opened Baltimore -7 Sunday evening and moved to -7.5 shortly thereafter.
"Philly looked frisky today in Pittsburgh, but that won?t deter the public," Murray said. "We will need the Eagles again next Sunday."
Bengals at Colts odds
Opening line
Colts -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Indianapolis fell to Cleveland 32-23, but that was more respectable than Cincinnati's 27-3 loss to Baltimore, so The SuperBook opened the Colts nearly double-digit favorites. There was no line movement Sunday night.
Jets at Dolphins odds
Opening line
Dolphins -8, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Miami posted an impressive 43-17 road beatdown of defending NFC champion San Francisco, so the Dolphins opened -8 against the hapless Jets. There was no line movement Sunday night.
Broncos at Patriots odds
Opening line
Patriots -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This game was supposed to take place in Week 5, first on Sunday, then on Monday. But COVID issues in New England booted the matchup to Week 6 Sunday. It's unclear whether Cam Newton will be cleared to start in the aftermath of his COVID diagnosis. The SuperBook opened the Patriots -9.5, and the first move was a full point toward Denver, with New England dipping to -8.5.
Packers at Buccaneers odds
Opening line
Buccaneers +1, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Green Bay is coming off a bye, while Tampa Bay was dealt a Week 5 Thursday night loss at Chicago. The SuperBook opened the Packers -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday evening.
"I'd expect the public to abandon the Bucs in a hurry after that loss to the Bears," Murray said. "The Packers have been coming through for the public all season. We will need the Bucs."
Rams at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened the Rams 3-point road favorites against the defending NFC champion 49ers, who are struggling at 2-3 SU and ATS after getting boatraced by visiting Miam, 43-17.
"The Rams are quietly 4?1, and the 49ers are a mess. If anything, that score today was misleading. Miami dominated them even worse than the score indicated," Murray said. "It?s really hard to handicap the 49ers right now. So many question marks. The public will be happy to lay the Rams here. This game may close even higher, given the schedule spot on Sunday night."
Cardinals at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Cowboys +3, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Dallas suffered a huge loss during Sunday's 37-34 victory over the Giants, as Dak Prescott broke and dislocated his right ankle, ending his season. With the Cowboys undermanned, The SuperBook opened Arizona a 3-point road favorite, with the first move to Arizona -2.5.
"No Dak, and the injuries are starting to pile up for Dallas," Murray said. "The public has been in love with the Cardinals for weeks. It will be weird needing Dallas as a home 'dog to Arizona in this game, but that will likely be our position next Monday night."
With a healthy Prescott, Murray said the Cowboys would've opened a short favorite against the Cardinals.
NFL betting tips for Week 6: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are a combined 7-2 Over/Under to start the 2020 NFL season and meet in Week 6 with a Over/Under total of 50 points.
Planning ahead has been tough to do in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving a lot up in the air. That?s been the case for the NFL season the past few weeks, with the schedule shaken up in reaction to coronavirus outbreaks.
But even with plenty of unknowns, you want to stay ahead of the action with the sharpest NFL betting strategy. And that means getting the best numbers now or waiting for the market to move in your favor.
Here are our NFL betting tips for the Week 6 odds to bet now and bet later.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet now
It didn?t take long for this line to start moving away from the Bucs after their bumbling loss in Chicago on Thursday. Tampa Bay opened strong, holding a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the Bears defense found its claws. Chicago wouldn?t allow a single point more and the Bears beleaguered offense would do just enough to get the 20-13 victory.
The Packers enjoyed a bye in Week 5 but return to action with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark entering this road stop in Florida. Aaron Rodgers is hoping to have top target Davante Adams back after missing two games (hamstring) and the Green Bay rushing attack continues to chew up the turf behind RB Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers do get that mini bye to lick their many wounds and should have some bodies back on offense. However, the defense lost its linchpin in veteran DL Vita Vea (broken leg) for the season.
This spread opened as big as Bucs -2.5 on Saturday at select books and was quickly steamed over the fence to Packers -1.5. Once the betting public starts looking at Week 6 odds Monday morning, there could be more movement toward the Cheeseheads, so get them as low as you can right now.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Bet later
Dak Prescott?s ankle injury was as gruesome as it was deflating. The Cowboys captain will be out for the remainder of the season, leaving quarterback duties in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Losing Dak is bad but not devastating to the Dallas offense due to the surplus of skill players around Dalton (who?s a pretty solid option at No. 2).
The Cowboys try to move forward after Sunday?s sour win over the Giants when Arizona comes to AT&T Stadium. The Cardinals snuffed a two-game slide by chewing up a cupcake in the New York Jets Sunday and play their third straight road game in Dallas in Week 6. Arizona's defense may be without pass rush specialist Chandler Jones (biceps) for an extended period of time.
This spread hit the board as high as Cowboys +3, but most books are dealing +2.5. The sharp money may be on Dallas early, but the public is going to play against the Cowboys without Prescott. I say wait it out and see if this one goes back to three or higher.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 50): Bet now
These AFC North rivalries used to be about hard-nosed defensive football, but this Week 6 divisional matchup is boasting a butt-load of points with an opening total at 50. Both the Browns and the Steelers have plenty of options on offense and are averaging 31.2 and 29.5 points per game respectively.
Cleveland is walking tall after a convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, hanging 32 points on the NFL?s top-ranked defense. And while Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs following the victory, the results were negative and he sounded fine in postgame interviews. Pittsburgh didn?t show any rust from its sudden bye week (due to Tennessee's COVID outbreak), out-punching Philadelphia 38-29. Combined, these foes have a 7-2 Over/Under record so far in 2020.
If you like the Over in this game ? and why wouldn?t you ? jump on it now. Those 50-point totals aren?t going to last long and, as of Sunday night, some 50.5 O/U's are popping up.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Under 44): Bet later
The Bears got their groove back on defense in Thursday?s win over Tampa Bay. For the first time in two seasons, Chicago caused chaos with three sacks, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and knocked around Tom Brady so bad he couldn?t remember what down it was. As for the Bears offense, it scored 20 or fewer points for the third time this season and the 13th time in the past 21 games.
The Panthers continue to play above expectations, improving to 3-2 SU and ATS with a victory over the floundering Falcons in Week 5. While QB Teddy Bridgewater, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Carolina offense get the love for this turnaround, the Panthers stop unit has made it easy. The defense has allowed its last three opponents to muster scores of 16, 21, and 16, playing Under the number in each of those wins.
This total opened at 43.5 points and jumped to 44 with the first action coming in on the Under. We?ve seen some early Over money on Carolina games already this season, so if you like the Under wait it out and get a little greedy. See if you can get an extra half point on this Over/Under before firing away.
Jason Logan
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are a combined 7-2 Over/Under to start the 2020 NFL season and meet in Week 6 with a Over/Under total of 50 points.
Planning ahead has been tough to do in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving a lot up in the air. That?s been the case for the NFL season the past few weeks, with the schedule shaken up in reaction to coronavirus outbreaks.
But even with plenty of unknowns, you want to stay ahead of the action with the sharpest NFL betting strategy. And that means getting the best numbers now or waiting for the market to move in your favor.
Here are our NFL betting tips for the Week 6 odds to bet now and bet later.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet now
It didn?t take long for this line to start moving away from the Bucs after their bumbling loss in Chicago on Thursday. Tampa Bay opened strong, holding a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the Bears defense found its claws. Chicago wouldn?t allow a single point more and the Bears beleaguered offense would do just enough to get the 20-13 victory.
The Packers enjoyed a bye in Week 5 but return to action with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark entering this road stop in Florida. Aaron Rodgers is hoping to have top target Davante Adams back after missing two games (hamstring) and the Green Bay rushing attack continues to chew up the turf behind RB Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers do get that mini bye to lick their many wounds and should have some bodies back on offense. However, the defense lost its linchpin in veteran DL Vita Vea (broken leg) for the season.
This spread opened as big as Bucs -2.5 on Saturday at select books and was quickly steamed over the fence to Packers -1.5. Once the betting public starts looking at Week 6 odds Monday morning, there could be more movement toward the Cheeseheads, so get them as low as you can right now.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Bet later
Dak Prescott?s ankle injury was as gruesome as it was deflating. The Cowboys captain will be out for the remainder of the season, leaving quarterback duties in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Losing Dak is bad but not devastating to the Dallas offense due to the surplus of skill players around Dalton (who?s a pretty solid option at No. 2).
The Cowboys try to move forward after Sunday?s sour win over the Giants when Arizona comes to AT&T Stadium. The Cardinals snuffed a two-game slide by chewing up a cupcake in the New York Jets Sunday and play their third straight road game in Dallas in Week 6. Arizona's defense may be without pass rush specialist Chandler Jones (biceps) for an extended period of time.
This spread hit the board as high as Cowboys +3, but most books are dealing +2.5. The sharp money may be on Dallas early, but the public is going to play against the Cowboys without Prescott. I say wait it out and see if this one goes back to three or higher.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 50): Bet now
These AFC North rivalries used to be about hard-nosed defensive football, but this Week 6 divisional matchup is boasting a butt-load of points with an opening total at 50. Both the Browns and the Steelers have plenty of options on offense and are averaging 31.2 and 29.5 points per game respectively.
Cleveland is walking tall after a convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, hanging 32 points on the NFL?s top-ranked defense. And while Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs following the victory, the results were negative and he sounded fine in postgame interviews. Pittsburgh didn?t show any rust from its sudden bye week (due to Tennessee's COVID outbreak), out-punching Philadelphia 38-29. Combined, these foes have a 7-2 Over/Under record so far in 2020.
If you like the Over in this game ? and why wouldn?t you ? jump on it now. Those 50-point totals aren?t going to last long and, as of Sunday night, some 50.5 O/U's are popping up.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Under 44): Bet later
The Bears got their groove back on defense in Thursday?s win over Tampa Bay. For the first time in two seasons, Chicago caused chaos with three sacks, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and knocked around Tom Brady so bad he couldn?t remember what down it was. As for the Bears offense, it scored 20 or fewer points for the third time this season and the 13th time in the past 21 games.
The Panthers continue to play above expectations, improving to 3-2 SU and ATS with a victory over the floundering Falcons in Week 5. While QB Teddy Bridgewater, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Carolina offense get the love for this turnaround, the Panthers stop unit has made it easy. The defense has allowed its last three opponents to muster scores of 16, 21, and 16, playing Under the number in each of those wins.
This total opened at 43.5 points and jumped to 44 with the first action coming in on the Under. We?ve seen some early Over money on Carolina games already this season, so if you like the Under wait it out and get a little greedy. See if you can get an extra half point on this Over/Under before firing away.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 19,282
- 25
- 48
LA Chargers - DE Joey Bosa (triceps), QB Tyrod Taylor (lung), WR Mike WIlliams (hamstring) are questionable tonight versus New Orleans.
New Orleans - WR Michael Thomas (disciplinary) & WR Deonte Harris (hamstring) are out, WR Marshon Lattimore & OT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion) are questionable tonight versus the Chargers.
New Orleans - WR Michael Thomas (disciplinary) & WR Deonte Harris (hamstring) are out, WR Marshon Lattimore & OT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion) are questionable tonight versus the Chargers.
COMPLETED PICKS
Past Completed Picks
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals........63-68-1.......48.09%.....-63.00
Past Completed Picks
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals........63-68-1.......48.09%.....-63.00
Last edited:
NFL Week 6 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Sunday's home victory over the Giants. Prescott's injury led The SuperBook to open Dallas +3 at home against Arizona.
NFL Week 5 is almost wrapped up, NFL Week 6 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably the atypically gruesome injury that shelved Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for the season.
This week?s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.
Week 6 Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: Prescott suffered a broken and dislocated right ankle during Sunday?s home win over the Giants. He had surgery Sunday night and won?t return this season. That led The SuperBook at Westgate to open the Cowboys as 3-point home underdogs to Arizona in the Monday night game, though Arizona quickly dipped to -2.5. With Prescott in the lineup, SuperBook executive director John Murray said Dallas would?ve been a short favorite.
Dallas also lost starting defensive tackle Trysten Hill to a torn ACL.
Kansas City Chiefs: Wideout Sammy Watkins (hamstring) won?t play this week at Buffalo, and might be out beyond that. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3 and the total at 55, and neither budged Monday.
Cleveland Browns: QB Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs, following an injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday?s win over Indianapolis. The X-rays came back negative, and Mayfield vowed to play this week at Pittsburgh. The Browns opened +4.5 at The SuperBook, and the first move Monday was to Browns +3.5. The total was steady at 51.
Week 6 Weather
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: The early-week forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain, but the wind might be the more noteworthy issue, at 17 mph from the east/northeast. The SuperBook opened the total at 50 and was down to 48.5 Monday.
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Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt
NFL Week 6 Betting Angles
It was interesting to see mostly more of the same regarding last week's scenarios, as teams before their SNF or MNF showcase went 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU).
But more importantly, those readers that had the balls to stick with the trend of fading teams pre-TNF in the outright market were rewarded handsomely if they stuck with fading the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City's game may have already been moved from Thursday Night Football, but they technically still classified as being in that scheduling spot where teams have not performed well this year.
That Raiders win was by far the best result, and it's something that is more likely to continue in Week 6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles slated to open Week 7 with a TNF game.
Both of those NFC East teams are at home this week, as it's their division of atrocity that gets the light shone on it a bit today.
Who's Hot
NFC West teams are a combined 8-2 ATS on the road; Only one division game played so 7-2 ATS on the road vs rest of the league
Quite the run for these NFC West teams away from home, and that's with the defending NFC Champions (San Francisco) sitting with a losing record SU overall right now. But the 49ers are 2-0 ATS away from home this year, as are the Seahawks.
Los Angeles and Arizona both sit at 2-1 ATS on the road, but that Rams loss came up in Buffalo in a contest that could have easily worked out in LA's favor.
Who do you follow?
Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Seahawks
Coming into the year you had to wonder if road teams would achieve even marginally more success with the lack of opposing crowds to deal with, and so far it has been this NFC West division to make the most of the opportunity.
But given that this division has represented the last two NFC Champions and has had a QB on the 3rd team that has been in the MVP conversation in both of those years, continuity was always going to be valuable this year and it's shown in this division.
Week 6 has the Rams in San Francisco on SNF to deal with a reeling 49ers team that's in desperate need of a win, while Arizona's out in Dallas for MNF the following evening. Both are sitting as small road favorites right now which brings a whole other can of worms to the party with popular road chalk in prime time, but it's hard to stand in the way of any of these teams when they are away from home.
The recent successes of Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have taught those organizations that winning on the road is a must in this league, and this is a trend I would expect to continue to perform rather well long term this season.
Who's Not
NFC East teams are a combined 2-8 ATS at home this year; 2-6 ATS outside of division games
As if some bettors needed another reason to want to fade the Dallas Cowboys yet again, but here we've got Dallas hosting Week 6's MNF game with the NFC West Arizona Cardinals coming into town.
On top of the awful defense the Cowboys have, and the devastating injury situation with quarterback Dak Prescott, this run of futility for NFC East teams at home only adds more fuel to the fire of a market that's likely going to be excited about fading this Dallas Cowboys team already.
How interesting that line gets throughout the week is something to keep an eye on.
Who do you fade?
Cowboys
Giants
Eagles
Football Team
But the Cowboys aren't the only team from this division at home in Week 6, as the Eagels host Baltimore, and the Giants are hosting Washington.
In fact, it's the combination of Dallas/NYG/Philadelphia that accounts for all eight of those ATS losses at home for this division (0-8 ATS combined), and it's Dallas and Philly ? the two teams expected to ultimately fight for this division ? who are the ones catching points this week.
Maybe the market has finally caught up to these teams, although who knows where the masses sit on the Cowboys now that Prescott is out.
Dallas is always going to be a public team, but as one that's done nothing but burn money in all roles this year, you've got to imagine a good chunk of that support waivers with those results and a backup QB in Andy Dalton now at the helm.
The Eagles are in tough against Baltimore, and the Washington/Giants game is one New York should be able to find a way to get into the win column for the first time this year.
These poor ATS numbers are more then likely to get better for all these NFC East teams at home, but it would still need to be a good spot to back them as well. All four of these teams are still below-average football teams overall, and you don't really want to be going to war with them week after week.
**************************************
Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall
Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Sunday, Oct. 18
CHICAGO at CAROLINA
Bears have won and covered first two on road in 2020 after dropping last six vs. spread away from Soldier Field in 2019.
Rhule has won and covered last three in 2020.
Chicago on 20-8 ?under? run since late 2018 (?over? first 2 away, however), though Panthers on 7-3-1 ?over? run since mid 2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and ?under,? based on team and extended ?totals? trends.
DETROIT at JACKSONVILLE
Lions 1-12 SU last 13, Patricia no covers last four as chalk.
Jags 3-2 as home dog since LY Lions ?over? 13-7 last 20.
Tech Edge: Jags, especially if dog, and slight to ?over? based on team and ?totals? trends.
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Falcs still winless 0-5 SU in 2020, but did have a five-game road spread cover streak finally stopped by Pack last Monday.
Atlanta ?over? 6-3 last nine away.
Vikes ?over? 11-5 last 16 reg-season games after Seattle last Sunday night.
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE
Titans were the odd 3-0 SU/0-3 vs. line first three games of 2020 into Bills on Tuesday.
Tennessee 12-4 SU in Tannehill?s first 16 games as a starter.
Texans closed the O?Brien era dropping last five SU and against line but did win and cover for Crennel last week against Jags.
Titans also ?over? 12-4 in Tannehill?s first 16 starts. ?Overs? 7-2 last nine in series.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Titans, based on ?totals? and team trends.
WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS
WFT on 6-2 ?over? run since late 2019.
G-Men have won and covered 4 of last 5 in series, though just 1-8 vs. line last 9 at MetLife.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?over? and Football Team, based on recent ?totals? and team trends.
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH
Home team has covered last four in series.
Browns ?over? 7-2 since late 2019.
Prior to covers in last three, Cleveland was on 5-12-1 spread skid.
Tech Edge: Steelers and ?over,? based on series and recent ?totals? trends.
BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA
Ravens on 16-1 SU run in reg season and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor.
Eagles on 3-9 spread skid since mid 2019, also 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Linc.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS
Bengals have covered three of last four in 2020 after opener vs. Chargers.
Cincy 6-4 vs. line last nine as visitor (not counting vs. Rams in London LY).
Colts have won and covered three of last four in 2020 and ?under? three of those, now ?under? 5-3 since late 2019.
Bengals, however, on 6-3 ?over? run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.
N.Y. JETS AT MIAMI
Dolphins have covered last four meetings.
Jets no covers first five in 2020, now on 2-8 spread skid since late 2019.
Miami now on 12-5 spread uptick since early 2019.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.
GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY
Pack 4-0 SU and vs. line, GB also ?over? 5-1 last six since late 2019.
If Pack a dog note 5-2 mark in role since LY (both losses last season vs 49ers).
Bucs ?over? 3-2 in 2020, Arians teams now ?over? 30-14 since mid 2016 with Cards & Bucs.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and Packers, based on ?totals? and team trends.
L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO
Rams 11-3 vs. number last 14 as visitor, have also won last three and covered last two at Levi?s.
Rams also ?over? four of last five on road.
Niners no covers first three as host in 2020 and 12-6 ?over? since early 2019.
Tech Edge: Rams and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.
Monday, Oct. 19
KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO
After loss to LV, KC now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid 2019.
Bills 6-3-1 last ten as dog and also ?over? first four in 2020 into Titans game on Tuesday.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and ?over,? based on recent trends.
ARIZONA at DALLAS
Cards have covered last four as dog for Kingsbury (1-0 TY), 11-4-1 in role since 2019.
Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 ?over? run since late in 2018.
Tech Edge: Cards and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.
Patrick Everson
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Sunday's home victory over the Giants. Prescott's injury led The SuperBook to open Dallas +3 at home against Arizona.
NFL Week 5 is almost wrapped up, NFL Week 6 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably the atypically gruesome injury that shelved Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for the season.
This week?s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.
Week 6 Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: Prescott suffered a broken and dislocated right ankle during Sunday?s home win over the Giants. He had surgery Sunday night and won?t return this season. That led The SuperBook at Westgate to open the Cowboys as 3-point home underdogs to Arizona in the Monday night game, though Arizona quickly dipped to -2.5. With Prescott in the lineup, SuperBook executive director John Murray said Dallas would?ve been a short favorite.
Dallas also lost starting defensive tackle Trysten Hill to a torn ACL.
Kansas City Chiefs: Wideout Sammy Watkins (hamstring) won?t play this week at Buffalo, and might be out beyond that. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3 and the total at 55, and neither budged Monday.
Cleveland Browns: QB Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs, following an injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday?s win over Indianapolis. The X-rays came back negative, and Mayfield vowed to play this week at Pittsburgh. The Browns opened +4.5 at The SuperBook, and the first move Monday was to Browns +3.5. The total was steady at 51.
Week 6 Weather
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: The early-week forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain, but the wind might be the more noteworthy issue, at 17 mph from the east/northeast. The SuperBook opened the total at 50 and was down to 48.5 Monday.
****************************
Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt
NFL Week 6 Betting Angles
It was interesting to see mostly more of the same regarding last week's scenarios, as teams before their SNF or MNF showcase went 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU).
But more importantly, those readers that had the balls to stick with the trend of fading teams pre-TNF in the outright market were rewarded handsomely if they stuck with fading the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City's game may have already been moved from Thursday Night Football, but they technically still classified as being in that scheduling spot where teams have not performed well this year.
That Raiders win was by far the best result, and it's something that is more likely to continue in Week 6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles slated to open Week 7 with a TNF game.
Both of those NFC East teams are at home this week, as it's their division of atrocity that gets the light shone on it a bit today.
Who's Hot
NFC West teams are a combined 8-2 ATS on the road; Only one division game played so 7-2 ATS on the road vs rest of the league
Quite the run for these NFC West teams away from home, and that's with the defending NFC Champions (San Francisco) sitting with a losing record SU overall right now. But the 49ers are 2-0 ATS away from home this year, as are the Seahawks.
Los Angeles and Arizona both sit at 2-1 ATS on the road, but that Rams loss came up in Buffalo in a contest that could have easily worked out in LA's favor.
Who do you follow?
Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Seahawks
Coming into the year you had to wonder if road teams would achieve even marginally more success with the lack of opposing crowds to deal with, and so far it has been this NFC West division to make the most of the opportunity.
But given that this division has represented the last two NFC Champions and has had a QB on the 3rd team that has been in the MVP conversation in both of those years, continuity was always going to be valuable this year and it's shown in this division.
Week 6 has the Rams in San Francisco on SNF to deal with a reeling 49ers team that's in desperate need of a win, while Arizona's out in Dallas for MNF the following evening. Both are sitting as small road favorites right now which brings a whole other can of worms to the party with popular road chalk in prime time, but it's hard to stand in the way of any of these teams when they are away from home.
The recent successes of Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have taught those organizations that winning on the road is a must in this league, and this is a trend I would expect to continue to perform rather well long term this season.
Who's Not
NFC East teams are a combined 2-8 ATS at home this year; 2-6 ATS outside of division games
As if some bettors needed another reason to want to fade the Dallas Cowboys yet again, but here we've got Dallas hosting Week 6's MNF game with the NFC West Arizona Cardinals coming into town.
On top of the awful defense the Cowboys have, and the devastating injury situation with quarterback Dak Prescott, this run of futility for NFC East teams at home only adds more fuel to the fire of a market that's likely going to be excited about fading this Dallas Cowboys team already.
How interesting that line gets throughout the week is something to keep an eye on.
Who do you fade?
Cowboys
Giants
Eagles
Football Team
But the Cowboys aren't the only team from this division at home in Week 6, as the Eagels host Baltimore, and the Giants are hosting Washington.
In fact, it's the combination of Dallas/NYG/Philadelphia that accounts for all eight of those ATS losses at home for this division (0-8 ATS combined), and it's Dallas and Philly ? the two teams expected to ultimately fight for this division ? who are the ones catching points this week.
Maybe the market has finally caught up to these teams, although who knows where the masses sit on the Cowboys now that Prescott is out.
Dallas is always going to be a public team, but as one that's done nothing but burn money in all roles this year, you've got to imagine a good chunk of that support waivers with those results and a backup QB in Andy Dalton now at the helm.
The Eagles are in tough against Baltimore, and the Washington/Giants game is one New York should be able to find a way to get into the win column for the first time this year.
These poor ATS numbers are more then likely to get better for all these NFC East teams at home, but it would still need to be a good spot to back them as well. All four of these teams are still below-average football teams overall, and you don't really want to be going to war with them week after week.
**************************************
Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall
Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Sunday, Oct. 18
CHICAGO at CAROLINA
Bears have won and covered first two on road in 2020 after dropping last six vs. spread away from Soldier Field in 2019.
Rhule has won and covered last three in 2020.
Chicago on 20-8 ?under? run since late 2018 (?over? first 2 away, however), though Panthers on 7-3-1 ?over? run since mid 2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and ?under,? based on team and extended ?totals? trends.
DETROIT at JACKSONVILLE
Lions 1-12 SU last 13, Patricia no covers last four as chalk.
Jags 3-2 as home dog since LY Lions ?over? 13-7 last 20.
Tech Edge: Jags, especially if dog, and slight to ?over? based on team and ?totals? trends.
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
Falcs still winless 0-5 SU in 2020, but did have a five-game road spread cover streak finally stopped by Pack last Monday.
Atlanta ?over? 6-3 last nine away.
Vikes ?over? 11-5 last 16 reg-season games after Seattle last Sunday night.
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE
Titans were the odd 3-0 SU/0-3 vs. line first three games of 2020 into Bills on Tuesday.
Tennessee 12-4 SU in Tannehill?s first 16 games as a starter.
Texans closed the O?Brien era dropping last five SU and against line but did win and cover for Crennel last week against Jags.
Titans also ?over? 12-4 in Tannehill?s first 16 starts. ?Overs? 7-2 last nine in series.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and slight to Titans, based on ?totals? and team trends.
WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS
WFT on 6-2 ?over? run since late 2019.
G-Men have won and covered 4 of last 5 in series, though just 1-8 vs. line last 9 at MetLife.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?over? and Football Team, based on recent ?totals? and team trends.
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH
Home team has covered last four in series.
Browns ?over? 7-2 since late 2019.
Prior to covers in last three, Cleveland was on 5-12-1 spread skid.
Tech Edge: Steelers and ?over,? based on series and recent ?totals? trends.
BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA
Ravens on 16-1 SU run in reg season and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor.
Eagles on 3-9 spread skid since mid 2019, also 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Linc.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS
Bengals have covered three of last four in 2020 after opener vs. Chargers.
Cincy 6-4 vs. line last nine as visitor (not counting vs. Rams in London LY).
Colts have won and covered three of last four in 2020 and ?under? three of those, now ?under? 5-3 since late 2019.
Bengals, however, on 6-3 ?over? run.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.
N.Y. JETS AT MIAMI
Dolphins have covered last four meetings.
Jets no covers first five in 2020, now on 2-8 spread skid since late 2019.
Miami now on 12-5 spread uptick since early 2019.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.
GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY
Pack 4-0 SU and vs. line, GB also ?over? 5-1 last six since late 2019.
If Pack a dog note 5-2 mark in role since LY (both losses last season vs 49ers).
Bucs ?over? 3-2 in 2020, Arians teams now ?over? 30-14 since mid 2016 with Cards & Bucs.
Tech Edge: ?Over? and Packers, based on ?totals? and team trends.
L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO
Rams 11-3 vs. number last 14 as visitor, have also won last three and covered last two at Levi?s.
Rams also ?over? four of last five on road.
Niners no covers first three as host in 2020 and 12-6 ?over? since early 2019.
Tech Edge: Rams and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.
Monday, Oct. 19
KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO
After loss to LV, KC now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid 2019.
Bills 6-3-1 last ten as dog and also ?over? first four in 2020 into Titans game on Tuesday.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and ?over,? based on recent trends.
ARIZONA at DALLAS
Cards have covered last four as dog for Kingsbury (1-0 TY), 11-4-1 in role since 2019.
Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 ?over? run since late in 2018.
Tech Edge: Cards and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.
103KANSAS CITY -104 BUFFALO
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.
251CHICAGO -252 CAROLINA
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.
253DETROIT -254 JACKSONVILLE
DETROIT is 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.
255ATLANTA -256 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 30-15 ATS (13.5 Units) in home games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.
257HOUSTON -258 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.
259WASHINGTON -260 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.
261CLEVELAND -262 PITTSBURGH
CLEVELAND is 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
263BALTIMORE -264 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 35-17 ATS (16.3 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
265CINCINNATI -266 INDIANAPOLIS
CINCINNATI is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) vs. good defenses (<17 PPG) since 1992.
267NY JETS -268 LA CHARGERS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.
269MIAMI -270 DENVER
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (22.1 Units) against the AFC West since 1992.
271GREEN BAY -272 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.
273LA RAMS -274 SAN FRANCISCO
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
***************************
This report will update as Dunkel adds matchups....
NFL
Dunkel
Week 6
Tuesday, October 13
Buffalo @ Tennessee
Game 481-482
October 13, 2020 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
134.427
Tennessee
136.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+3 1/2); Over
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Game 255-256
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
00.000
Minnesota
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A
Houston @ Tennessee
Game 257-258
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
00.000
Tennessee
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Game 263-264
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
136.678
Philadelphia
134.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+8); Over
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Game 265-266
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
122.997
Indianapolis
133.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 11
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-8); Under
Detroit @ Jacksonville
Game 253-254
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
125.466
Jacksonville
125.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under
Washington @ NY Giants
Game 259-260
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.701
NY Giants
121.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
Even
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Under
Chicago @ Carolina
Game 251-252
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.837
Carolina
128.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Game 261-262
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.582
Pittsburgh
138.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 9
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3 1/2); Over
Denver @ New England
Game 281-282
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
129.442
New England
134.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 5
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Under
NY Jets @ Miami
Game 279-280
October 18, 2020 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
126.045
Miami
132.513
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 8
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+8); Over
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Game 271-272
October 18, 2020 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
140.081
Tampa Bay
132.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 1 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-1 1/2); Under
LA Rams @ San Francisco
Game 273-274
October 18, 2020 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
130.580
San Francisco
131.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+3 1/2); Over
************************************
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 6
Tuesday, October 13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/13/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (4 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DETROIT (1 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (0 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLEVELAND (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY JETS (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (1 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GREEN BAY (4 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 201-146 ATS (+40.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/19/2020, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, October 13
Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington
Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.
251CHICAGO -252 CAROLINA
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.
253DETROIT -254 JACKSONVILLE
DETROIT is 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.
255ATLANTA -256 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 30-15 ATS (13.5 Units) in home games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.
257HOUSTON -258 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.
259WASHINGTON -260 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.
261CLEVELAND -262 PITTSBURGH
CLEVELAND is 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
263BALTIMORE -264 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 35-17 ATS (16.3 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
265CINCINNATI -266 INDIANAPOLIS
CINCINNATI is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) vs. good defenses (<17 PPG) since 1992.
267NY JETS -268 LA CHARGERS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.
269MIAMI -270 DENVER
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (22.1 Units) against the AFC West since 1992.
271GREEN BAY -272 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.
273LA RAMS -274 SAN FRANCISCO
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
***************************
This report will update as Dunkel adds matchups....
NFL
Dunkel
Week 6
Tuesday, October 13
Buffalo @ Tennessee
Game 481-482
October 13, 2020 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
134.427
Tennessee
136.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+3 1/2); Over
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Game 255-256
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
00.000
Minnesota
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A
Houston @ Tennessee
Game 257-258
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
00.000
Tennessee
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Game 263-264
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
136.678
Philadelphia
134.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+8); Over
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Game 265-266
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
122.997
Indianapolis
133.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 11
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 8
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-8); Under
Detroit @ Jacksonville
Game 253-254
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
125.466
Jacksonville
125.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Under
Washington @ NY Giants
Game 259-260
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
121.701
NY Giants
121.943
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
Even
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Under
Chicago @ Carolina
Game 251-252
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.837
Carolina
128.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Game 261-262
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.582
Pittsburgh
138.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 9
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3 1/2); Over
Denver @ New England
Game 281-282
October 18, 2020 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
129.442
New England
134.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 5
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Under
NY Jets @ Miami
Game 279-280
October 18, 2020 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
126.045
Miami
132.513
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 8
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+8); Over
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Game 271-272
October 18, 2020 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
140.081
Tampa Bay
132.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 1 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-1 1/2); Under
LA Rams @ San Francisco
Game 273-274
October 18, 2020 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
130.580
San Francisco
131.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+3 1/2); Over
************************************
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 6
Tuesday, October 13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/13/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (4 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DETROIT (1 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (0 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLEVELAND (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY JETS (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (1 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GREEN BAY (4 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 201-146 ATS (+40.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/19/2020, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, October 13
Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington
Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
COMPLETED PICKS
Past Completed Picks
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals........63-68-1.......48.09%.....-63.00
Past Completed Picks
DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
Totals........63-68-1.......48.09%.....-63.00
Last edited:
NFL
Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington
Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Monday, October 19
Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona
Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 18
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington
Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Monday, October 19
Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona
Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 15-0 ATS (10.90 ppg) since Jan 12, 2013 on the road coming off a win where they ran for at least 150 yards.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-8.91 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (13.69 ppg) since Sep 22, 2019 coming off a win where Mark Andrews had a receiving touchdown.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
-- The Packers are 10-0-1 OU (5.59 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 on the road coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points less than expected based on the team total.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Denver at New England
-- The Patriots are 0-12 OU (-8.88 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 coming off a road game that went under the total by at least six points.
NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (8.68 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 at home coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
Vince Akins
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 15-0 ATS (10.90 ppg) since Jan 12, 2013 on the road coming off a win where they ran for at least 150 yards.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-8.91 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (13.69 ppg) since Sep 22, 2019 coming off a win where Mark Andrews had a receiving touchdown.
NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
-- The Packers are 10-0-1 OU (5.59 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 on the road coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points less than expected based on the team total.
NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Denver at New England
-- The Patriots are 0-12 OU (-8.88 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 coming off a road game that went under the total by at least six points.
NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (8.68 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 at home coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)
Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
Micah Roberts
NFC West Matchup receives attention
The biggest line move of NFL Week 6 action started 10 days ago when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted their early Week 6 numbers with the San Francisco 49ers as three-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams.
But following the Week 5 results, the SuperBook immediately posted the Rams as favorites (-3), which was mostly based on the 49ers eye-opening 43-17 home loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Bettors thought so low of the 49ers after quartreback Jimmy Garoppolo?s return to the lineup was a disaster that they thought the 7-point move wasn?t enough and bet the Rams to -3.5 on Monday morning.
On Wednesday, 49ers money showed up pushing the Rams down to -3 (-120).
On Thursday, they bet the 49ers again pushing the game to Rams -3 flat. But by Friday afternoon it was back up to Rams -3 -120.
At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews says it?s one of those sharp-public divide games. You can guess who the public likes. The Rams are 4-1 with a top-4 defense coming off a wire-to-wire 30-10 win and cover (-7) at Washington. Meanwhile, the 49ers have two straight bad losses as 8.5-point home favorites over the Eagles and Dolphins, and the public liked the 49ers in both and got burned. They?ve learned their lesson and refuse to be burned again by the 49ers.
But the way the San Francisco reporters are talking, this game is a defining moment for Garoppolo. He?s at a crossroads. This could be it and he might be playing for his job and home. He should be motivated, so if you like the 49ers, you have the desperation narrative going for you. And it?s a home game on a Sunday night although the 49ers have gone winless at Levi Stadium (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) which hasn?t had any fans attend this season yet.
The 49ers won both meetings last season, the Rams have covered three of the last four. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.
Week 6 - Largest Public Leans
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says the Rams are one of their top public plays this week, along with the Ravens (-7.5 at Philadelphia), and Packers (PK at Tampa Bay). Those are the same top-3 public plays at the South Point.
Battle of the Bays
Up north in Reno, Atlantis sportsbook director Marc Nelson also has the Packers as their top public team. The first five weeks of the season the Buccaneers were a very popular public team as people transferred QB Tom Brady?s success with the Patriots into continuous trends for 2020.
But when the Chicago Bears (+3.5) beat the Bucs, 20-19, last Thursday night, most bettors had seen enough and flipped.
The Packers are 4-0 both SU and ATS, the type of run the public loves to press until it eventually loses. Plus, Green Bay and star QB Aaron Rodgers will be playing with rest after having a bye in Week 5.
However, BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott says their biggest liability so far through Friday afternoon was on the Buccaneers.
The SuperBook early number had the Bucs -3 (EVEN) and after the loss to the Bears, it was readjusted to Packers -1.5. But despite all the public play, there?s enough respected money on the Bucs to keep the SuperBook at pick ?em.
Sharp Report
The Ravens are part of the most popular 3-team parlay this week, but unlike the other two, wise guys have not shown their hand on the other side with the Eagles yet and it was sitting Ravens -7.5 all week until the SuperBook moved to -8 on Thursday. On Friday, respected money came on the Ravens to push them to -9.5 and then back to -9. BetMGM is also at -9.
Kornegay said their sharp play is on the Cowboys (-1 vs Cardinals on Monday), Browns (+3.5 at Pittsburgh), and Texans (+3.5 at Tennessee) while Andrews says the South Point?s biggest sharp risk is the Bears (+1.5 at Carolina), Jaguars (+3 vs. Lions), and 49ers.
Nelson says the Atlantis? top wise guy plays are the Browns, Bucs, and Broncos (+9 at New England).
The Patriots canceled practice on Friday after a player tested positive for COVID-19 and there were some concerns in Indianapolis for their home game against the Bengals (+7.5) but reopened their facility Friday after tests came back negative.
Both games are still on the board, but bettors do have concerns.
?No big players (yet), covid has everyone spooked,? said BetMGM?s Scott.
Nevada?s BetMGM high rollers (whales) usually arrive Friday or Saturday night.
AFC South Trap?
The game that surprises me the most that the public isn?t on, or at least as much as the other three, is the undefeated Titans (-3.5) at home against the Texans who finally won last week. Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Titans are their biggest risk thus far, but they?ve got the type of players where one bet means the entire day's success. Kornegay has sharp money on the Texans.
Micah Roberts
NFC West Matchup receives attention
The biggest line move of NFL Week 6 action started 10 days ago when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted their early Week 6 numbers with the San Francisco 49ers as three-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams.
But following the Week 5 results, the SuperBook immediately posted the Rams as favorites (-3), which was mostly based on the 49ers eye-opening 43-17 home loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Bettors thought so low of the 49ers after quartreback Jimmy Garoppolo?s return to the lineup was a disaster that they thought the 7-point move wasn?t enough and bet the Rams to -3.5 on Monday morning.
On Wednesday, 49ers money showed up pushing the Rams down to -3 (-120).
On Thursday, they bet the 49ers again pushing the game to Rams -3 flat. But by Friday afternoon it was back up to Rams -3 -120.
At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews says it?s one of those sharp-public divide games. You can guess who the public likes. The Rams are 4-1 with a top-4 defense coming off a wire-to-wire 30-10 win and cover (-7) at Washington. Meanwhile, the 49ers have two straight bad losses as 8.5-point home favorites over the Eagles and Dolphins, and the public liked the 49ers in both and got burned. They?ve learned their lesson and refuse to be burned again by the 49ers.
But the way the San Francisco reporters are talking, this game is a defining moment for Garoppolo. He?s at a crossroads. This could be it and he might be playing for his job and home. He should be motivated, so if you like the 49ers, you have the desperation narrative going for you. And it?s a home game on a Sunday night although the 49ers have gone winless at Levi Stadium (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) which hasn?t had any fans attend this season yet.
The 49ers won both meetings last season, the Rams have covered three of the last four. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.
Week 6 - Largest Public Leans
Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says the Rams are one of their top public plays this week, along with the Ravens (-7.5 at Philadelphia), and Packers (PK at Tampa Bay). Those are the same top-3 public plays at the South Point.
Battle of the Bays
Up north in Reno, Atlantis sportsbook director Marc Nelson also has the Packers as their top public team. The first five weeks of the season the Buccaneers were a very popular public team as people transferred QB Tom Brady?s success with the Patriots into continuous trends for 2020.
But when the Chicago Bears (+3.5) beat the Bucs, 20-19, last Thursday night, most bettors had seen enough and flipped.
The Packers are 4-0 both SU and ATS, the type of run the public loves to press until it eventually loses. Plus, Green Bay and star QB Aaron Rodgers will be playing with rest after having a bye in Week 5.
However, BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott says their biggest liability so far through Friday afternoon was on the Buccaneers.
The SuperBook early number had the Bucs -3 (EVEN) and after the loss to the Bears, it was readjusted to Packers -1.5. But despite all the public play, there?s enough respected money on the Bucs to keep the SuperBook at pick ?em.
Sharp Report
The Ravens are part of the most popular 3-team parlay this week, but unlike the other two, wise guys have not shown their hand on the other side with the Eagles yet and it was sitting Ravens -7.5 all week until the SuperBook moved to -8 on Thursday. On Friday, respected money came on the Ravens to push them to -9.5 and then back to -9. BetMGM is also at -9.
Kornegay said their sharp play is on the Cowboys (-1 vs Cardinals on Monday), Browns (+3.5 at Pittsburgh), and Texans (+3.5 at Tennessee) while Andrews says the South Point?s biggest sharp risk is the Bears (+1.5 at Carolina), Jaguars (+3 vs. Lions), and 49ers.
Nelson says the Atlantis? top wise guy plays are the Browns, Bucs, and Broncos (+9 at New England).
The Patriots canceled practice on Friday after a player tested positive for COVID-19 and there were some concerns in Indianapolis for their home game against the Bengals (+7.5) but reopened their facility Friday after tests came back negative.
Both games are still on the board, but bettors do have concerns.
?No big players (yet), covid has everyone spooked,? said BetMGM?s Scott.
Nevada?s BetMGM high rollers (whales) usually arrive Friday or Saturday night.
AFC South Trap?
The game that surprises me the most that the public isn?t on, or at least as much as the other three, is the undefeated Titans (-3.5) at home against the Texans who finally won last week. Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Titans are their biggest risk thus far, but they?ve got the type of players where one bet means the entire day's success. Kornegay has sharp money on the Texans.
Rams vs. 49ers Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
For the third straight week it's the NFC West that gets some part of the Sunday Night Football spotlight, and the San Francisco 49ers are hoping this home date turns out better than their last one.
That was a tough 25-20 home loss to the Eagles as heavy home chalk, and now two weeks later they are catching a field goal with the division rival Los Angeles Rams in town.
Who ends up playing (and even playing well) for the 49ers at QB is a huge question coming into the game and they are an easy target to be picked on right now because of it.
The 49ers upcoming schedule is about as rough as it gets, so this could spiral downwards in a heartbeat, but a counted out former champ can be tough to completely dispose of.
Betting Resources
Week 6 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
The San Francisco 49ers have struggled at Levi's Stadium this season, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. (AP)
Line Movements
The Rams know all about the post-Super Bowl struggles a team like the 49ers appear to be dealing with, as that was the Rams at the beginning of last year.
Starting out this year with a 4-1 SU record is great, but when all four of those wins have come against NFC East teams, you know there are going to be questions about resume quality.
Beating the defending conference champs regardless of what state they are currently in can't hurt the Rams resume going forward, but have they done enough to be a road favorite for this game?
Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -165 San Francisco +145
Total: 51.5
2020 Betting Stats
Los Angeles
Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 14)
Defense PPG: 18.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 403.6 (Rank 4)
Defense YPG: 304.2 (Rank 4)
San Francisco
Overall: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Home: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 24.8 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 364.2 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 323 (Rank 5)
Handicapping the Total
Not knowing the starter under center for the Niners for certain makes it tough to be confident in either side of this total.
I would argue that the quarterback trio we've seen from San Francisco are all closer to being equal in overall skill set than they aren't, but that is more helpful in determining a side rather than a total. Chemistry between whomever is throwing the ball and the pass catchers are out there does change based on the name.
But this is still a Rams team that's run through weak NFC East competition so far, although they did hold Dallas to just 17 points. But their game against Buffalo saw the Bills finish with 35, and no matter who the 49ers go with at QB, it's still going to be better than most of what LA saw from the Giants or Washington.
This is also going to be one of the first halfway decent defenses the Rams will have seen this year, as again, their 2020 has consisted of beating up on the NFC East. It's been a division rivalry where the winner has put up at least 30 in five of the past six meetings, and I'm not sure the Rams can get there, but them getting to that number wouldn't be surprising either. Buffalo's shown to be one of the better defenses the Rams have played and they hung 30+ on the Bills.
Long way of saying that this total is probably right where it should be, and it's a series where I think flipping the total result in the rematch might be the better way to approach the two games these two play this year. Too much uncertainty here on both ends, and we'll have a much better profile of each squad when they meet again at the end of November.
Head-to-Head History
Dec. 21, 2019 - San Francisco 34 vs. Los Angeles 31, 49ers -7, Over 45.5
Oct. 13, 2019 - San Francisco 20 vs. Los Angeles 7, 49ers +3, Under 50
Dec. 30, 2018 - Los Angeles 48 vs. San Francisco 32, Rams -10.5, Over 50
Oct. 21, 2018 - Los Angeles 39 at San Francisco 10, Rams -9, Under 52
Handicapping the Side
I might not be able to call a one-point win for the home side like last week, but with me lumping all of the 49ers QB options into a group I can expect what to get from, siding with the underdog and the points as I did a week ago is the play once again.
I do think the Rams are an above average team this year, but their 4-1 SU record doesn't hold nearly the same weight that some other four-win teams have at this point in the year. It's inflating their stock just ever so slightly, and when paired with a 49ers stock that's about as low as it can get right now, it just doesn't seem like this line is completely correct.
Had Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners just got beat at home last week against Miami ? not utterly demolished from start to finish ? I don't think the perception of this 49ers team is as low as it currently seems to be.
Last week's play isn't necessarily a good thing for the Niners long term this year, as they may be an average team that simply overachieved last year, but in a spot where it's got to feel like the direction of their season is on the line, I think we get the best versions of whomever is out there on the field in San Fran colors.
All three QB options for the 49ers have recent starting experience with this team so there are minimal worries there, and it was just a few weeks ago that the Rams were a two-point road dog vs Philly, while the 49ers were laying -8.5 at home against that same Eagles team a couple of weeks later. The drastically different results for those teams in those games isn't quite worth the adjustment here in my view, and the Rams record could get somewhat exposed here.
San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog ? a role they've yet to be in this season ? and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. I believe the 49ers play up to the level of their competition in this spot, and facing a familiar foe who they swept last year might allow the Niners to play more on instinct and not have them try to overthink their way out of this funk.
I may not be sure about who ultimately takes the field for San Francisco in this game, but I'm also not sure about what this Rams team truly is in 2020. Until they show me a more definitive picture one way or the other, I just don't think I can agree with this picture being painted of the Rams being worthy road favorites in this spot. I don't even think they win the game.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles
LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Elbow - Out
S Jordan Fuller: Shoulder - Out
LB Micah Kiser: Groin - Questionable
OT Bobby Evans: Shoulder - Probable
San Francisco
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Probable
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Calf
S Marcell Harris: Ankle
CB Emmanuel Moseley: Concussion - Questionable
CB Dontae Johnson: Groin - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Knee - Out
LB Kwon Alexander: Anle - Out
Matt Blunt
For the third straight week it's the NFC West that gets some part of the Sunday Night Football spotlight, and the San Francisco 49ers are hoping this home date turns out better than their last one.
That was a tough 25-20 home loss to the Eagles as heavy home chalk, and now two weeks later they are catching a field goal with the division rival Los Angeles Rams in town.
Who ends up playing (and even playing well) for the 49ers at QB is a huge question coming into the game and they are an easy target to be picked on right now because of it.
The 49ers upcoming schedule is about as rough as it gets, so this could spiral downwards in a heartbeat, but a counted out former champ can be tough to completely dispose of.
Betting Resources
Week 6 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
The San Francisco 49ers have struggled at Levi's Stadium this season, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. (AP)
Line Movements
The Rams know all about the post-Super Bowl struggles a team like the 49ers appear to be dealing with, as that was the Rams at the beginning of last year.
Starting out this year with a 4-1 SU record is great, but when all four of those wins have come against NFC East teams, you know there are going to be questions about resume quality.
Beating the defending conference champs regardless of what state they are currently in can't hurt the Rams resume going forward, but have they done enough to be a road favorite for this game?
Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -165 San Francisco +145
Total: 51.5
2020 Betting Stats
Los Angeles
Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 14)
Defense PPG: 18.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 403.6 (Rank 4)
Defense YPG: 304.2 (Rank 4)
San Francisco
Overall: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Home: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 24.8 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 364.2 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 323 (Rank 5)
Handicapping the Total
Not knowing the starter under center for the Niners for certain makes it tough to be confident in either side of this total.
I would argue that the quarterback trio we've seen from San Francisco are all closer to being equal in overall skill set than they aren't, but that is more helpful in determining a side rather than a total. Chemistry between whomever is throwing the ball and the pass catchers are out there does change based on the name.
But this is still a Rams team that's run through weak NFC East competition so far, although they did hold Dallas to just 17 points. But their game against Buffalo saw the Bills finish with 35, and no matter who the 49ers go with at QB, it's still going to be better than most of what LA saw from the Giants or Washington.
This is also going to be one of the first halfway decent defenses the Rams will have seen this year, as again, their 2020 has consisted of beating up on the NFC East. It's been a division rivalry where the winner has put up at least 30 in five of the past six meetings, and I'm not sure the Rams can get there, but them getting to that number wouldn't be surprising either. Buffalo's shown to be one of the better defenses the Rams have played and they hung 30+ on the Bills.
Long way of saying that this total is probably right where it should be, and it's a series where I think flipping the total result in the rematch might be the better way to approach the two games these two play this year. Too much uncertainty here on both ends, and we'll have a much better profile of each squad when they meet again at the end of November.
Head-to-Head History
Dec. 21, 2019 - San Francisco 34 vs. Los Angeles 31, 49ers -7, Over 45.5
Oct. 13, 2019 - San Francisco 20 vs. Los Angeles 7, 49ers +3, Under 50
Dec. 30, 2018 - Los Angeles 48 vs. San Francisco 32, Rams -10.5, Over 50
Oct. 21, 2018 - Los Angeles 39 at San Francisco 10, Rams -9, Under 52
Handicapping the Side
I might not be able to call a one-point win for the home side like last week, but with me lumping all of the 49ers QB options into a group I can expect what to get from, siding with the underdog and the points as I did a week ago is the play once again.
I do think the Rams are an above average team this year, but their 4-1 SU record doesn't hold nearly the same weight that some other four-win teams have at this point in the year. It's inflating their stock just ever so slightly, and when paired with a 49ers stock that's about as low as it can get right now, it just doesn't seem like this line is completely correct.
Had Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners just got beat at home last week against Miami ? not utterly demolished from start to finish ? I don't think the perception of this 49ers team is as low as it currently seems to be.
Last week's play isn't necessarily a good thing for the Niners long term this year, as they may be an average team that simply overachieved last year, but in a spot where it's got to feel like the direction of their season is on the line, I think we get the best versions of whomever is out there on the field in San Fran colors.
All three QB options for the 49ers have recent starting experience with this team so there are minimal worries there, and it was just a few weeks ago that the Rams were a two-point road dog vs Philly, while the 49ers were laying -8.5 at home against that same Eagles team a couple of weeks later. The drastically different results for those teams in those games isn't quite worth the adjustment here in my view, and the Rams record could get somewhat exposed here.
San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog ? a role they've yet to be in this season ? and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. I believe the 49ers play up to the level of their competition in this spot, and facing a familiar foe who they swept last year might allow the Niners to play more on instinct and not have them try to overthink their way out of this funk.
I may not be sure about who ultimately takes the field for San Francisco in this game, but I'm also not sure about what this Rams team truly is in 2020. Until they show me a more definitive picture one way or the other, I just don't think I can agree with this picture being painted of the Rams being worthy road favorites in this spot. I don't even think they win the game.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles
LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Elbow - Out
S Jordan Fuller: Shoulder - Out
LB Micah Kiser: Groin - Questionable
OT Bobby Evans: Shoulder - Probable
San Francisco
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Probable
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Calf
S Marcell Harris: Ankle
CB Emmanuel Moseley: Concussion - Questionable
CB Dontae Johnson: Groin - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Knee - Out
LB Kwon Alexander: Anle - Out
