CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at MIN 01:00 PM
ATL +3.5
O 53.0
+500 +500

CLE at PIT 01:00 PM
CLE +3.0
O 50.0
+500 +500

DET at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC +3.0
O 52.5
+500 +500

BAL at PHI 01:00 PM
BAL -10.5
U 46.5
+500 +500

CIN at IND 01:00 PM
CIN +7.5
U 46.0
+500 +500

CHI at CAR 01:00 PM
CHI +2.0
O 45.0
+500 +500

WAS at NYG 01:00 PM
NYG -1.0
U 42.5
+500 +500

HOU at TEN 01:00 PM
HOU +3.5
O 52.0
+500 +500

DEN at NE 01:00 PM
NE -7.5
U 43.5
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

LATE AFTERNOON AND UNDER THE LIGHTS:

NYJ at MIA 04:05 PM
NYJ +8.5
O 46.0

GB at TB 04:25 PM
GB -2.0
U 54.5

LAR at SF 08:20 PM
LAR -2.5
U 51.0

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........72-82-3.......46.75%.....-95.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Tennessee 42, Texans 36 OT
? Houston scored TD with 1:50 left to go up 36-29; they went for 2 points to get ahead by two scores, but missed.
? Texans lost despite a 10-yard edge in field position.
? Texans lost four of last five visits to Nashville, losing by 7-11-6 points.

? Titans gained 601 yards, had 31 first downs.
? Henry ran ball 22 times for 22 yards, including a 94-yard TD.
? Tennessee drove 76 yards for the tying TD with 0:04 left.
? Tennessee drove 82 yards for the winning TD on the first drive in OT.
? Bad beat if you took the points with Houston (+3.5)

Ravens 30, Philadelphia 28
? Ravens led 17-0 at halftime, had to stop tying 2-point play in last 2:00.
? Baltimore won its three road games, 33-16/31-17, spring 30+ points in all three games.
? QB Jackson ran ball for 108 yards, threw for 186 more.
? Penalties: Ravens 12-132 yards, Eagles 3-20.

? Eagles went 3/out on their first six drives.
? In 2nd half: Philly ran 36 plays for 319 yards, four TD?s.
? Eagles went for 2 points after all four of their TD?s.
? Underdogs covered five of their six games this year.

Indianapolis 31, Bengals 27
? Bengals led 21-0 after first play of the 2nd quarter.
? Cincy?s first three drives: 23 plays, 191 yards, 21 points.
? Bengals rest of the game: 53 plays, 207 yards, 6 points.
? Cincy is 16-9 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.

? Colts won their three home games, 28-11/36-7/31-27.
? Rivers threw for 234 yards, just in the 2nd quarter.
? Indy converted 7 of 11 third down plays.
? Colts averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

Broncos 18, New England 12
? Broncos kicked FG?s on each of their first six drives; never saw that before.
? Denver?s last four drives: 12 plays, 26 yards, two INT?s.
? Broncos had 3 takeaways (+1), after having only two takeaways in first four games.
? Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.

? Newton had 76 of Patriots? 117 rushing yards.
? New England?s only TD, only TD of the game, came on their 8th drive.
? Total of only three penalties were enforced in this game, for 24 yards.
? Belichick?s career record as a head coach without Brady: 56-66.

Bears 23, Carolina 16
? Chicago?s average starting point: their own 44 (won field position by 26 yards)
? Bears are 5-1, with four wins by 4 or fewer points.
? Chicago won its three road games, 27-23/30-26/23-16.
? Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

? Carolina converted only 3-13 on 3rd down; Bears were 7-14.
? Panthers had one TD, two FG?s on three red zone drives.
? Panthers are 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
? Chicago won five of last six games overall vs Carolina.

Lions 34, Jacksonville 16
? Detroit ran ball for 180 yards, outgained Jaguars 403-275
? Lions scored four TD?s, kicked FG on five red zone drives.
? Detroit?s first two drives: 16 plays, 125 yards, 14 points.
? Detroit covered 8 of its last 9 post-bye games.

? Jaguars lost their last five games, giving up 30+ points in all five.
? Jacksonville ran ball only 16 times for 44 yards.
? Cole caught six passes for 143 yards, including a 51-yarder.
? Jacksonville has been outsacked 18-5 this season.

Falcons 40, Minnesota 23
? Falcons win in first game with interim coach Morris.
? Atlanta scored four TD?s; only one TD drive was longer than 44 yards.
? Falcons converted 9-17 on 3rd down, had three INT?s, won field position by 14 yards.

? Cousins threw an INT on first play of game; it went downhill from there.
? Vikings in 1st half: 6 series, 24 plays, 135 yards, 3 turnovers, 0 points.
? Minnesota has lost field position by 10+ yards in five of its six games.

NJ Giants 20, Washington 19
? Redskins scored TD with 0:36, but went for 2 points and the win- they lost.
? Washington lost its last five games, giving up 28.2 ppg.
? Last four games, Washington was outscored 46-16 in second half.
? Last 4+ years, Redskins are 16-12 ATS as a road dog.

? Giants had a sack/fumble/TD for winning points with 3:29 left.
? Giants have scored only six TD?s on 52 drives this year- their one TD drive here was 27 yards.
? Washington ran 69 plays, Giants 46 in this game.
? Daniel Jones is 4-14 as an NFL starter, but 3-0 vs Washington.

Pittsburgh 38, Browns 7
? Cleveland went 3/out on six of their 12 drives.
? Browns converted only 1-12 third down plays, lost field position by 12 yards.
? Cleveland is 11-19-1 ATS in its last 31 games as a road underdog.
? Browns lost their last 17 visits to Steel City.

? Pittsburgh won its first five games (4-1 ATS), scoring 31.2 ppg.
? Steelers? first five drives: 28 plays, 190 yards, 17 points.
? Neither team gained 300+ yards in this game; unusual.
? Steelers are 13-2-1 SU in last sixteen series games.

Tampa Bay 38, Packers 10
? In its first four games, Green Bay went 3/out one time on 35 drives; they went 3/out 7 times on 11 drives in this game.
? Packers led 10-0 orly in 2nd quarter, then Rodgers threw a pick-6 and things unraveled.
? Green Bay?s last nine drives: 39 plays, 52 yards, four first downs.
? Packers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last five post-bye games.

? Tampa Bay won its first three home games, scoring 31-38-38 points.
? Buccaneers allowed only 2.7 yards/pass attempt in this game.
? For only 2nd time time in their history, Tampa Bay didn?t have any penalties.

Miami 24, NJ Jets 0
? Jets lost their first six games (0-6 ATS), giving up 30.8 ppg.
? Jets have been outscored 114-29 in first half of games.
? Gang Green lost its two road games, 27-17/36-7/24-0.
? Jets are 8-19-2 ATS in last 29 games as a road underdog.

? Miami scored TD?s on two of their first three drives.
? Teams combined to convert 3-26 third down plays.
? Dolphins won field position by 18 yards.
? Miami is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.

San Francisco 24, LA Rams 16
? Rams were outgained 390-311, converted only 4-12 on third down.
? LA?s four 1st half drives: 21 plays, 92 yards, 6 points (missed PAT).
? Rams had only two plays of 20+ yards.

? 49ers? first four drives: 35 plays, 256 yards, 21 points.
? SF averaged 8.1 yards/pass attempt, LA 5.2.
? 49ers ran 70 plays from scrimmage, LA only 57.

Dodgers 4, Braves 3 (LA wins 4-3):
? Bellinger homered in 7th inning for winning run.
? Urias pitched three perfect innings to get the win.
? Atlanta OF Nick Markakis has played in 2,154 regular season games and has had a really good career, but he?s still never played in a World Series.

 

[Cnotes53]

Chiefs vs. Bills Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Through no fault of their own, the Buffalo Bills are on that rare Tuesday-Monday turn around this week as they look for a much better showing then they had in Tennessee last week.

But even with the disjointed nature of their schedule the past few weeks, the Bills still get a Tuesday-Monday break between games here, compared to the Sunday-Thursday break they would have had had this game gone on normally as scheduled on a Thursday night.

Can't complain too much about that when the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL

The Chiefs have posted a 2-0 record on the road as they pay a visit to the Bills on Monday Night. (AP)

Spread: Kansas -4.5
Money-Line: Kansas City -220, Buffalo +190
Total: 57.5

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 9)
Defense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 407.2 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 382.8 (Rank 20)

Buffalo

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-0-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.8 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 28.4 (Rank 22)
Offense YPG: 401.8 (Rank 5)
Defense YPG: 371.8 (Rank 17)

Handicapping the Total

The total is quite interesting here as both teams are known for their offensive play this year, but it's both defenses that are coming off efforts that saw opponents hang 40 or more on them.

The Chiefs defense is to blame for most of those points, but you can't hang the Bills defense completely out to dry after that effort in Tennessee given how many short fields they had to deal with. But Buffalo opponents have still averaged 31.25 points per game over their last four, as suspect defense in Buffalo is starting to look like it might be a trend.

Yet, I think the best way to look at this game is through the eyes of both defenses wanting to rebound after rough outings, and both offenses looking to take much better care of the ball. Kansas City isn't going to want to bleed their defense to death with them losing the time of possession battle in a big way again, and sustaining, and lengthening drives when need be may be an offensive philosophy we see from KC a bit more here.

They know they can connect on the "Home Run" play if need be, we as bettors know that, but that's three out of four games the Chiefs have been outgained in total yardage now, largely because they are getting smokes in the time of possession battle.

Tennessee may not have had the greatest success running on Buffalo, but the weakness of this suspect defense is in stopping the run and I think the Bills went overboard in trying to protect it against the Titans. They'll loosen up a bit there and if KC commits to the running game early (in an effort to give rest to their defense), they'll find enough success to shorten a game with a total of 57.5 rather quickly.

At the same time, Buffalo's going to want to run the ball and control time of possession as much as they can, because that's what everyone seems to believe is the best path to success against the Chiefs, and rightfully so. KC's defense has seen what works in slowing down quarterback Josh Allen from the zone looks Tennessee gave them on Tuesday, and that means that running lanes and controlling the time of possession battle will be there for the taking for Buffalo's offense.

Expecting both teams to run the ball more (for their varying reasons), along with these defenses tightening things up after rough outings in a measuring stick type game ? at least for the Bills ? the 'under' is the way to look here in my opinion.

Buffalo can never feel comfortable about their chances of pulling off the upset win in a shootout-type contest, and it's still a road game for the Chiefs who know the recipe for winning on the road is to run the ball and play good defense. Scoring may be up this year, but this Chiefs team still loves to play that conservative style on the road as they are 0-5 O/U in their last five road games, part of which includes a 1-4 O/U run when listed as a road favorite.

If Buffalo's going to pull off the upset here, they will need to likely keep KC to 24 or less and even then it will be close. Buffalo's yet to cash an 'under' ticket this year against the closing line, and that's probably not a true reflection of where this team's O/U record will end up by the end of the year.

But the belief this Bills defense will continue to trend in the wrong direction with Mahomes and company in town isn't a hard one to get behind, and the number's probably a shade higher then it should be as is usually the case with Chiefs games in the big picture as well.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Nov. 26, 2017 - Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10, Bills +8.5, Under 47
Nov. 29, 2015 - Kansas City 30 vs. Buffalo 22, Chiefs -4, Over 40.5

Handicapping the Side

Along the lines of thinking that both defenses will rebound to a degree after rough outings helps an 'under' look, it's a perspective that makes it tough to hone in on a side.

The fact that both sides are coming off losses, it makes a strong bounce back spot argument in both directions, and a Chiefs win that stays inside this current spread would befit this potential playoff preview both franchises hope it may be.

In the end, taking those points at home with a Buffalo team that's looking to prove way more here is rather tempting, but questions remain about Buffalo even being a team ready to take that next step. Much easier to sit on the sidelines in that regard here and see how it plays out.

KC might be so frustrated they lost last week ? a division game no less ? that they look to hang it on someone, and it just so happens to be the Bills and their defense that's giving up 31+/game that's up next.

I do think it is more likely to be close throughout, but the number you get on the spread here as a great chance to actually matter and it's just sticking with the total selection for me.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

OL Mitchell Schwartz: Back - Questionable
RB Le'Veon Bell: Acquired - Out
FB Anthony Sherman: COVID-19 - Out
WR Sammy Watkins: Hamstring - Out
G Kelechi Osemele: Knee - Out

Buffalo

WR John Brown: Knee - Probable
RB Zack Moss: Toe - Probable
CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
G Quinton Spain: Foot - Questionable
LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
TE Dawson Knox: Calf - Out
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Out

 

[Cnotes53]

Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Life without Dak Prescott officially takes hold for the Dallas Cowboys this week, as Andy Dalton takes this NFC East-leading team into MNF looking to cover their first point spread of the season. An explosive offense with a defense that only knows how to give up explosive plays is clearly not the recipe for point spread success in Dallas, and it will be interesting to see how much of a play-calling change the Cowboys implement knowing this is now Dalton's team.

But helping the Cowboys defense stay off the field as much as possible can go a long way with this team. Dallas still is going to struggle to slow down people on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be this way of allowing 30+ like they have the past four weeks.

Obviously trying to slow down a guy like Kyler Murray and what Arizona brings to the table isn't the best place to start for Dallas, but they've got to start somewhere. The Cardinals enter this game 0-5 O/U this year as they typically don't see both sides score 30+ in a game like the Cowboys have.

You've got a winless ATS team that only knows how to play games with 70+ points scored against a team that's yet to cash an 'over' ticket. What's going to give?

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Arizona Cardinals will be playing their third straight road game on Monday when they meet the Cowboys from Arlington. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Arizona -1.5
Money-Line: Arizona -120, Dallas +100
Total: 55

2020 Betting Stats

Arizona

Overall: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 16)
Defense PPG: 20.4 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 395.4 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 10)

Dallas

Overall: 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Home: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.6 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 36.0 (Rank 32)
Offense YPG: 488.0 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 404.4 (Rank 27)

Handicapping the Total

Arizona's 'under' run is something I would side with getting snapped sooner rather than later, and this does appear to be the no-brainer opponent to look at an Arizona 'over' spot with how bad the Cowboys defense has been.

Yet, you've got to believe that the Dallas defense can't continue to be this inept every week out on the field, and it's just a bunch of other little things that will likely have me passing on this total in the end. I know I wouldn't want any part of the 'under', but it still doesn't feel like the best play to make in this game.

I don't know if Arizona's 0-5 O/U run has much to do with it, or the fact that the Cardinals have the 4th-best third down conversion rate on defense (opponents only convert third downs 35.59% of time vs Arizona) that I think we might be forced to see the Dallas attack slow down as well.

The Cowboys know they can't keep hanging their defense out to dry, and they might already be leaning towards running the ball more with a backup QB in, and one of the best RB's in the game beside him.

With Arizona's defense understanding how to get off the field when they get the chance too, I'm not sure we see this Dallas attack go up and down the field like they have been. Nor do I think Dallas really wants that for their defense to keep getting shredded all the way back.

Recent Cowboys games may not suggest it, but you still need a lot to go smoothly to cash an 'over' 55 ticket, as it's just as fine to pass here.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Sept. 25, 2017 - Dallas 28 at Arizona 17, Cowboys -3, Under 46
Nov. 2, 2014 - Arizona 28 at Dallas 17, Cardinals -1.5, Push 45

Handicapping the Side

The side is the more interesting handicap in that the Cowboys are too talented on offense to remain without an ATS win for long, but how confident can you be trusting them in Andy Dalton's first start? Dalton does have years of starting experience in this league so there is that working for him, but he's got a much different skill set than Prescott, and how to utilize his skills the best is still going to be a work in progress.

From the Arizona side of things, this could be a second ATS win in a row, but it's also their third straight road game. Going from Carolina to New York to Dallas the past three weeks is far from a favorable play-on spot for any team, but again, all we've seen from this Dallas defense this year is them casually retreating down the field as the scoreboard puts up multiples of six on them. There is definitely an argument there for Arizona.

But as road chalk that's seen the line basically move against them all week, I really want nothing to do with Arizona here. In fact, the third straight road game against a team you know is in a great spot to rally around themselves given how their season has gone really turns into an awful spot for the Cardinals when they've also got a division showdown with the Seattle Seahawks on deck.

Dalton may not be the best option, but he's a known commodity at this point in his career. He's also working with more weapons around him than he ever had in Cincinnati, so he's not going to be asked to carry this team, just lead them. That's the better role for him with this Cowboys team right now, and he's just got to take care of the football.

Defensively, I'll put faith in the idea that the Cowboys defense has to improve simply because I don't think they can get any worse. The Cowboys are probably owed a turnover or two for all that's gone wrong in their season so far, as a -8 turnover differential this year is worst in the league and one that should see some positive regression eventually.

Arizona has had at least one turnover in every game so far this season, so it's not like their won't be opportunities for this Cowboys defense to capitalize.

But Dallas as a home dog, when the Cowboys probably deserve at least a little bit of sympathy for what they roller coaster of a season they've already had to deal with is something I don't think I can pass up in this spot. Dalton could easily end up burning more units than he earns in his new gig, but I'll save those fade spots when the Cowboys start laying some significant chalk again down the line after grabbing a few wins.

That winning streak starts for the Cowboys with this game against a road weary Cardinals team that's got a potential lookahead spot up next. Great spot for a home dog to rise up and get this difficult 2020 campaign somewhat back on track.

Key Injuries

Arizona

LB Dennis Gardeck: Foot - Questionable
OT D.J. Humphries: Back - Questionable
LB Devon Kennard: Calf - Questionable
DE Chandler Jones: Biceps - Out
OL J.R. Sweezy: Elbow - Out
LB Kylie Fitts: Hamstring - Out
DT Rashard Lawrence: Calf - Out

Dallas

LB Leighton Vander Esch: Collarbone - Probable
QB Dak Prescott: Ankle - Out
DT Trysten Hill: Knee - Out
T Tyron Smith: Neck - Out

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 6
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Broncos (+7.5, ML +290) at Patriots, 18-12
Falcons (+3.5, ML +170) at Vikings, 40-23
Buccaneers (+2.5, ML +130) vs. Packers, 38-10
49ers (+2.5, ML +110) vs. Rams, 24-16

The largest favorites to cover

Dolphins (-8.5) vs. Jets, 24-0
Titans (-4) vs. Texans, 42-36 (OT)
Lions (-3) at Jaguars, 34-16
Steelers (-3) vs. Browns, 38-7

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in the late afternoon window on Sunday was expected to be one of the two best games of Week 6. The Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers game in the early window was expected to be a good battle, but that turned out to be a dud. The Pack and Bucs was a good battle for about a quarter and a half, and then it went downhill, too.

The Packers fired out to a 10-0 lead after one quarter, and the favorites looked like they were going to be in control. However, Jamel Dean had a pick-six against QB Aaron Rodgers, and the Bucs scored their first touchdown with their defense. Just 100 seconds later, it was Ronald Jones II punching in a 2-yard touchdown, and the home side was up 14-10, and they would not look back. They scored two more touchdowns by halftime, leading 28-10, and the over (55) was looking good, right?

The Bucs posted 10 more points, giving them 38 unanswered points, and over bettors were just seven points shy of a push heading into the final quarter. Unfortunately for over bettors, there were ZERO points in the final quarter. It wasn't quite a bad beat, but over bettors were likely feeling very good after 45 minutes, only to have the carpet whipped out from under their feet.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Houston Texans-Jackonville Jaguars game was a seesaw battle, and Texans (+4) side bettors had to be feeling good when the visitors went ahead 36-29 with 1:50 to go in regulation. However, A.J. Brown reeled in a seven-yard touchdown, and Tennessee elected for the point after rather than the two-point conversion try with four seconds remaining, forcing overtime. Houston moneyline bettors were dejected, but side bettors catching the six were feeling OK. Right?

Well, with 6:30 to go in the extra session, Derrick Henry scored from five yards out, and the touchdown ended things. Instead of a cover, moneyline bettors were holding a losing ticket, and so were side bettors. Ouch.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board on the Sunday slate was the Washington Football Team-New York Giants (42) game, and the bookmakers were close to being right on the nose. The Giants gritted out a 20-19 home victory, their first of the season. A scoreless third quarter tossed over bettors off pace, and despite a total of 16 points in a final quarter flurry, this NFC cellar-dweller battle ended up as an 'under' result. The under is now 4-2 in six games overall for the G-Men, including 2-1 at home. They're averaging just 15.0 PPG in three games at MetLife Stadium.

The highest total on Sunday's board was the aforementioned Packers-Bucs game (see above). The second-highest game was the Atlanta Falcons-Minnesota Vikings (53.5) battle. The Falcons fired out to a 20-0 lead at halftime, and the under was well on pace. The Falcons posted 10 points in each quarter, but over bettors needed the Vikings to show up if they were going to cash. They did, eventually, as the Vikings posted 16 points in the final quarter to inch the total over the finish line with 63 total points.

The only primetime game in Week 6 so far was the Los Angeles Rams-San Francisco 49ers (51) game, and it went well 'under', with just 13 total points in the final 30 minutes. The first-half 'over' did end up hitting with 27 total points. The rescheduled Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills (56) and the Arizona Cardinals-Dallas Cowboys (55) game on Monday promise to give us some doubleheader fireworks, at least if the odds makers are right.

So far this season the over is 8-10 (44.4%) across 18 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 7

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Giants hit the road with a quick turnaround, but at least it's a quick jaunt down to the City of Brotherly Love. They're coming off their first victory of the season, 20-19, over Washington. The Eagles made a valiant comeback, but fell just short against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, 30-28. Philly swept the season series in 2019, winning 23-17 in Philadelphia in overtime on a Monday night game in early December, and they doubled up the G-Men 34-17 in Week 17 in the Meadowlands. They also swept the season series in 2017 and 2018, too. In fact, Philadelphia hasn't lost to the Giants in the past seven meetings, although New York has covered its past three trips to Lincoln Financial Field.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Browns were knocked down a peg, falling 38-7 in Pittsburgh on Sunday. They're 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in four games against everyone other than the Ravens and Steelers. Against those two division rivals the Browns are 0-2 SU/ATS, and they're averaging just 6.5 PPG while allowing 38.0 PPG. They'll play their final road divisional game of the season, and it's a rematch with the Bengals. Cincinnati picked up a backdoor cover in Week 2 in a Thursday game in Cleveland, covering a six-point number in a 35-30 loss. QB Baker Mayfield (ribs) aggravated his rib injury in Pittsburgh, so that will be a situation to watch here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

As mentioned, the Steelers bludgeoned the Browns, and they remain unbeaten. They'll take on the other big kid on the AFC block, as the Titans are also unbeaten. The Steelers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, including a cover in their only road game back in Week 1 against the Giants. After failing to cover in their first three wins, the Titans are 2-0 ATS in the past two while hitting the 'over' in four consecutive contests. Tennessee has scored 31 or more points in four in a row, too. Of course, the Browns had scored 30 or more points in four in a row heading into Week 6, and the Steelers defense completely shut them down, so we'll see what happens.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Buccaners flexed a little muscle against the Packers, winning 38-10 in a bummer of a game. It was great for Tampa, but a bummer for NFL fans who wanted to see a good game between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Bucs are already 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS in two games against AFC West teams, including a win and road cover against the Denver Broncos back in Week 3. While the Bucs are 4-2 SU overall, they're just 1-2 SU/ATS in three road contests to date. The Raiders are coming off a bye, resting in Week 6 after their 40-32 road win against the Kansas City Chiefs. In a SNF game back in Week 2, the Raiders pushed past the Saints 34-24 to cover as four-point home 'dogs at Allegiant Stadium, a.k.a. 'The Big Al'. We'll see if they can remain hot on the Strip

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ARI at DAL 08:15 PM

ARI +1.0

U 55.0

EARLY GAME LEAN

BUFF AND UNDER 55

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/19/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........74-82-3.......47.43%.....-85.00

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 7: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and the Rams, who tumbled to the 49ers on Sunday night, are back in prime time next Monday at home against the Bears. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -6.5.

NFL Week 6 is almost a wrap, save for Monday's twinbill, and NFL Week 7 odds are on the betting board and taking action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans meet in a battle of unbeatens, and the Chicago Bears head to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Rams.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 7 odds

These are the current NFL Week 7 odds, as of October 18.

Teams on bye: Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins

Giants at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Philadelphia's comeback fell short in a 30-28 home loss to Baltimore on Sunday, but it impressed the oddsmakers more than New York squeaking out a 20-19 home win over Washington. That said, after opening the Eagles -6.5, The SuperBook ticked down to -6 shortly after posting the line Sunday evening.


Browns at Bengals odds

Opening line
Bengals +3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Cincinnati was a 7.5-point underdog Sunday at Indianapolis and had an upset in the making, but got outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and lost 31-27. Cleveland wasn't nearly as crisp in its role as a popular 3-point pup at Pittsburgh, where the Browns got boatraced 38-7.

That certainly impacted the Browns-Bengals line at The SuperBook, as 4-2 Cleveland opened -3.5 against 1-4-1 Cincinnati.


Cowboys at Washington odds

Opening line
WFT +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Washington fell just short at the New York Giants on Sunday, losing 20-19 after a failed 2-point conversion in the waning seconds. Dallas, which is without Dak Prescott (ankle) for the rest of the year, still has Week 6 work to do in the Monday night game against Arizona.

Still, The SuperBook opened the Cowboys -3, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Lions at Falcons odds

Opening line
Falcons -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
In its first game since firing coach Dan Quinn, Atlanta rolled over host Minnesota 40-23, and Detroit had a similarly easy time in a 34-16 win at Jacksonville. The SuperBook opened the Falcons -3, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Panthers at Saints odds

Opening line
Saints -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans is rested up, coming off a bye week, while Carolina was dealt a 23-16 Week 6 home loss as 2-point chalk against Chicago. That prompted The SuperBook to post the Saints as a touchdown-plus favorite for this NFC South clash, and there was no movement Sunday night.


Bills at Jets odds

Opening line
Jets +10.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York continues to make its case for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, losing at Miami 24-0 to fall to 0-6 SU and ATS. Buffalo is 4-1 SU (3-2ATS) and atop the AFC East, though it still has some heavy Week 6 lifting to do, in a 5 p.m. ET Monday clash with visiting Kansas City.


Packers at Texans odds

Opening line
Texans +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Packers opened -3 at The SuperBook, and in the wake of their 38-10 blowout road loss to the Buccaneers, the line didn't move Sunday night.

"Today?s performance may give some bettors pause on taking Green Bay, but I?d still expect to need Houston big at kickoff," Murray said Sunday evening. "It'll probably be one of the biggest decisions of the week."


Seahawks at Cardinals odds

Opening line
Cardinals +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle opened -3 at The SuperBook, with no movement Sunday night.

"The Seahawks are coming off their bye, and it's a short week for Arizona," Murray said, alluding to the Cardinals' Monday night game at Dallas. "Seattle's defense has been very shaky. There should be money both ways, but we will need Arizona."


49ers at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New England opened -4, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the game came off the board Sunday night when the Rams-49ers game kicked off. The game will go back up Monday morning.

"I?ll be interested to see how the public plays this game, after the New England performance today," Murray said Sunday evening, noting the Patriots' pathetic performance in an 18-12 home loss to Denver as 7-point favorites.


Chiefs at Broncos odds

Opening line
Broncos +8.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Denver is coming off a stunning 18-12 victory at New England, but all 18 points came on field goals, which surely won't hold up against the explosive Kansas City offense. The Chiefs still have their Week 6 game Monday at Buffalo, but The SuperBook pegged K.C. 8.5-point road chalk in this Week 7 AFC West matchup.


Buccaneers at Raiders odds

Opening line
Raiders +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay opened -2.5 on the road, and there was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook. But there'll be no shortage of cash flying on this Sunday Night Football contest.

"This will be a huge-volume game," Murray said. "The Bucs' D looked awesome today (vs. Packers), but there should be a lot of support for the Raiders, especially in this market. The Raiders are off a huge win (at Chiefs) and a bye week. The Bucs are very popular this year, but the Raiders will see a lot of support, too."


Bears at Rams odds

Opening line
Rams -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no early movement at The SuperBook off the opener of Los Angeles -6.5, and this game came off the board when the Rams-49ers game kicked off Sunday night. Bears-Rams will go back up Monday morning.

"The Bears don?t get any respect, but they just keep winning," Murray said of the NFC North leaders, who are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) heading into the Week 7 Monday nighter. "There will be moneyline bets on the Bears. It?s a long way off, but I?m guessing we will want the Rams to win but not cover at kickoff."


Steelers at Titans odds

Opening line
Titans +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Steelers -1 and are now up to -2.5," Murray said of a big Sunday night move at The SuperBook. "The Titans just keep winning, but haven?t gotten much respect in the betting market. We will definitely need them here."


Jaguars at Chargers odds

Opening line
Chargers -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Chargers, coming off their bye, are 1-4 SU, and the Jaguars are 1-5 SU. But Los Angeles has played well and is in pretty much every game, as evidenced by its 4-1 ATS mark, while Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS. So The SuperBook pegged the Bolts 9.5-point favorites Sunday night, and bettors didn't dispute it, as there was no early movement.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL betting tips for Week 7: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Aaron Rodgers' revenge tour rolls into Houston coming off an embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay last Sunday. Since Rodgers took over QB duties in 2008, the Cheeseheads are 39-29-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Holy crap, we?re almost at the midway mark of the 2020 NFL season. By this point in the schedule, the NFL betting intel is growing richer by the snap and oddsmakers have a much deeper understanding of what makes teams tick.

Because of that you need a sure-fire NFL betting strategy: get the best number for your bet.

Locking in the best spread or total for your opinion is the only way to beat the bookies, so we share our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and which ones to bet later in NFL Week 7.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans: Bet Now

Boy I feel sorry for the Texans. After Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed in Tampa Bay this past weekend, Green Bay?s redemption tour rolls into Houston to take on a 1-5 home team. Books opened the Cheeseheads as field-goal favorites for this 1 p.m. ET Week 7 kickoff and it won?t be sticking around long.

The Texans just gave up 36 points in regulation to the Titans and have allowed four of their six opponents to crack the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard (Pittsburgh could only muster 28 points? pffffft!). While the offense does seem to be figuring something out since shedding the stink of Bill O?Brien?s play calling, it's walking into a shootout Sunday afternoon.

Since Rodgers took over as the No. 1 gunslinger in Green Bay (2008), the Packers have posted a 39-29-1 ATS mark (57 percent) coming off a loss. Yes, Sunday?s defeat to the Bucs was a bad one but it?s only giving us extra value on this short spread. Also, the Pack are back indoors Sunday, where they?ve averaged 38 points per game this season. I wonder if they've ever considered putting a roof on Lambeau? Nahhhhhhh.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+1.5): Bet Later

The Titans don?t get any respect. Maybe it?s sour grapes from their whole COVID-19 outbreak. Maybe it?s the bad taste leftover from Ryan Tannehill?s days in Miami. Whatever the case, Tennessee is catching the points at home hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 7 battle of undefeated teams.

There?s enough on either side of this spread to make a case for Pittsburgh or Tennessee, but if you are siding with the home team, you may want to wait this one out and see how many extra points you can grab before clicking submit on the Titans.

This line opened as low as Steelers -1 and is out there as high as -2. Tennessee needed a last-second drive to force overtime and secure the win versus Houston at home (albeit playing its second game in six days) but Pittsburgh?s convincing win over Cleveland will puff this one up ? especially with the Steelers boasting a surplus of public support each and every week.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51): Bet Now

It?s the 2020 NFL season soooooo? you get a 50-point total! And you get a 50-point total! And YOU get a 50-point total! With scoring still at a record pace, oddsmakers are stuffing as much cushion as they can into these weekly totals until the universe balances itself out.

The Panthers-Saints Week 7 showdown opened with the total at 51 points and while there hasn?t been a hint of movement in the first few hours of action, I believe this is headed downward. The Saints have had a bye week to study up and tighten the bolts on a defense that still ranks sixth in DVOA at Football Outsiders. And while there?s a slim hope that Carolina will return RB Christian McCaffrey (most likely Week 8), the Panthers offense has slowed down after a fiery start to the season with efforts of 23 and 16 points the past two games.

Another thing to consider is how well New Orleans knows not only Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater (played for the Saints for two seasons) but also Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady (Saints offensive assistant for two years), who pretty much ripped pages out of the New Orleans playbook for his tenure at LSU and is running similar systems in Charlotte this year. If you?re on board with the Under, you'll want to get it sooner rather than later.


Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Under 56.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under opened as low as 55.5 at one select sportsbook and lasted less than a half-hour before action tacked on another point and the rest of the industry posted 56.5 for Lions at Falcons. And why not? Both teams love to score and hate to defend, ranked 28th and 30th in defensive DVOA (heading into Week 6).

But if you're zigging when everyone else is zagging on this total, wait and see how much higher the number climbs before jumping in on the Under. Detroit and Atlanta are each coming off an offensive outpouring in Week 6, with the Lions laying 34 points on the Jaguars and the Falcons flipping the Vikings for 40 points. That recency bias has built this lofty number.

We?ve seen these groups fall flat on their face at times this season. Atlanta scored just 16 points in back-to-back outings before Sunday?s explosion, and Detroit hadn?t cracked 30 points until this weekend?s run-in with lowly Jacksonville. These teams have faced some tall totals in past meetings and have gone just 2-4 O/U in their last six head-to-head encounters.

 

[Udog]

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 22 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 22

N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA

Giants have covered last three trips to Linc as road team has covered last four in series.
G-Men now 3-0 as road dog in 2020 (visiting team has covered first five NY games), 7-2 since 2019 in role, 13-3 since 2018.
Birds on 5-14 skid vs. line last 19 at Linc.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on team and series trends.


Sunday, Oct. 25

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI

Bengals have covered 10 of last 12 meetings including Sept. 17 at Cleveland.
Browns have covered three of last four in 2020 after 5-12-1 spread skid prior.
Cincy has also covered 4 of last 5 this season.
Browns ?over? 4-1 last five in 2020 and 7-3 ?over? since late 2019.
?Overs? 5-0-1 last six meetings.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Bengals, based on ?totals? and series trends.


DALLAS at WASHINGTON

Into Monday vs. Cards, Dallas 0-5 vs. line in 2020, though WFT only 1-3-1 vs. spread.
Cowboys have won and covered last three and five of last six meetings.
Dallas ?over? 7-2 last nine since late 2019, Wash ?over? 6-2 last eight since late 2019.
?Overs? 8-1 last nine meetings.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.


DETROIT at ATLANTA

Falcs 0-3 vs. line at home in 2020, 6-12 last 18 vs. spot at Mercedes Benz Stadium.
Lions however have lost 12 of last 14 SU, and 1-5 last six as road dog.
Detroit ?over? 14-7 since 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.


CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS

Panthers have won and covered 3 of last 4 in 2020, and have also covered 3 of last 4 in series.
Saints 2-6 vs. number last 8 at Superdome.
Carolina 11-6-1 ?over? since early 2019, NO ?over? seven straight reg season.
?Overs? 9-2 last 11 meetings.

Tech Edge: ?Over? and Panthers, based on ?totals? and team trends.


BUFFALO at N.Y. JETS

Jets 0-6 SU and vs. line in 2020, 2-9 last 11 on board since late 2019.
Bills ?over? 4-0-1 this season into KC on Monday night, ?overs? 4-2 last six meetings

Tech Edge: Bills and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


GREEN BAY at HOUSTON

Pack 4-1 SU and vs. line in 2020, now 6-2 last 8 vs. spread in reg season since late 2019.
Texans 4-10-1 vs. line last 16 on board.

Tech Edge: Packers, based on recent trends.


PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE

Titans now 14-4 SU with Tannehill at QB, also 14-4 ?over? in those games.
Though Steel ?under? 8-1 last nine away.
Tomlin 10-2 as dog since 2018.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on Titan ?totals? trends.


SEATTLE at ARIZONA

Road team is 9-1-1 vs. line last 11 in series.
Hawks 8-3-1 vs. points last 12 on road.
Cards ?under? 4-0-1 in 2020, 7-2-1 ?under? since late 2019.
Last five in series at Glendale have been ?under? as well.

Tech Edge: Seahawks and ?under,? based on series and ?totals? trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ENGLAND

Visiting team is 5-1 vs. line in Niner games TY (SF 2-0), and Shanahan has covered five straight and 8 of last 10 as visitor.
After Rams win, Niners now 5-0 as dog since last season.
Belichick only 3-5 vs. line last 8 at Gillette Stadium after Denver loss.

Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.


KANSAS CITY at DENVER

Chiefs have won last nine SU in series (8-1 vs. line), longest SU win streak vs. Denver since 1964-69 when KC won 11 straight.
Even after Raiders loss, Chiefs 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. spread last 14 since mid 2019 (prior to bills on Monday).
Fangio, however, 9-3 last 12 as dog.
Series also ?under? last four meetings.

Tech Edge: Chiefs and ?under,? based on series and ?totals? trends.


JACKSONVILLE at L.A. CHARGERS

Bolts 1-4 SU, 4-1 vs. line in 2020.
Chargers 1-1 vs. line at SoFi, though just 2-9 against number last 11 as host.
Jags 4-9 last 13 vs. points away.
Bolts ?under? 7-1 last 8 as host.
11-3 ?under? last 14 at home.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.


TAMPA BAY at LAS VEGAS

Arians ?under? last two in 2020 but still ?over? 15-7 with Bucs and ?over? 30-15 dating to mid 2016 with Cards.
Raiders ?over? 4-0-1 in 2020.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.


Monday, Oct. 26

CHICAGO at L.A. RAMS

Matchups between these two have been way ?under? each of past two seasons.
Bears 3-0 vs. line away, 4-1 as dog in 2020.
Bears ?under? 21-8 since late 2018.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Bears, based on ?totals? and team trends.

 

[Udog]

303NY GIANTS -304 PHILADELPHIA
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the last 3 seasons.

451CLEVELAND -452 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

453DALLAS -454 WASHINGTON
DALLAS are 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=285 yards/game since 1992.

457DETROIT -458 ATLANTA
DETROIT is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

461CAROLINA -462 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 26-9 ATS (16.1 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.

463BUFFALO -464 NY JETS
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the current season.

465GREEN BAY -466 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

467SEATTLE -468 ARIZONA
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

469SAN FRANCISCO -470 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 101-63 ATS (31.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.

471KANSAS CITY -472 DENVER
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

473TAMPA BAY -474 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.

475CHICAGO -476 LA RAMS
CHICAGO is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.

477PITTSBURGH -478 TENNESSEE
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after a home win in the last 3 seasons.

479JACKSONVILLE -480 LA CHARGERS
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7

Thursday, October 22

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Game 303-304
October 22, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
121.717
Philadelphia
131.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Over


Sunday, October 25

Carolina @ New Orleans

Game 461-462
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
129.212
New Orleans
131.953
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+7 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Game 451-452
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.753
Cincinnati
129.860
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Houston

Game 465-466
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
135.181
Houston
128.987
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 6
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee

Game 477-478
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.542
Tennessee
140.720
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 3
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+1 1/2); Over

Detroit @ Atlanta

Game 457-458
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
126.963
Atlanta
136.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 9 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-3); Over

Buffalo @ NY Jets

Game 463-464
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.705
NY Jets
117.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 14 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 12 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-12 1/2); Under

Dallas @ Washington

Game 453-454
October 25, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
121.398
Washington
121.927
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
49
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Under

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 467-468
October 25, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.376
Arizona
137.787
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+3 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ New England

Game 469-470
October 25, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
130.532
New England
131.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 2 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ Denver

Game 471-472
October 25, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
139.529
Denver
132.884
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 6 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ LA Chargers

Game 479-480
October 25, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
118.203
LA Chargers
127.475
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 9 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-7 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Las Vegas

Game 473-474
October 25, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
137.663
Las Vegas
137.165
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
Even
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
53
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(+3); Over


Monday, October 26

Chicago @ LA Rams

Game 475-476
October 26, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.587
LA Rams
137.235
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 9 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 5 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-5 1/2); Under

 

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 4 - 1) - 10/22/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 25

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CLEVELAND (4 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 4 - 1) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (2 - 3) at WASHINGTON (1 - 5) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 94-127 ATS (-45.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-127 ATS (-45.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 94-127 ATS (-45.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 26-51 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 3) at ATLANTA (1 - 5) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 149-188 ATS (-57.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (3 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 2) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 1) at NY JETS (0 - 6) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games this season.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY JETS are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 1) at HOUSTON (1 - 5) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 201-147 ATS (+39.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (5 - 0) at ARIZONA (3 - 2) - 10/25/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 40-64 ATS (-30.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 3) - 10/25/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-211 ATS (+39.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-211 ATS (+39.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 200-154 ATS (+30.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-92 ATS (+30.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 3) - 10/25/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 2) at LAS VEGAS (3 - 2) - 10/25/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 39-64 ATS (-31.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 56-86 ATS (-38.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 0) at TENNESSEE (5 - 0) - 10/25/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 67-37 ATS (+26.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 5) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 4) - 10/25/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 31-6 ATS (+24.4 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 26

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CHICAGO (5 - 1) at LA RAMS (4 - 2) - 10/26/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-83 ATS (-34.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 151-194 ATS (-62.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 73-105 ATS (-42.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 22

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Giants's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants


Sunday, October 25

Carolina @ New Orleans
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

Green Bay @ Houston
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

Buffalo @ NY Jets
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Detroit @ Atlanta
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

Dallas @ Washington
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Seattle @ Arizona
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home

Kansas City @ Denver
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home

San Francisco @ New England
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
New England
New England is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

Jacksonville @ LA Chargers
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Jacksonville's last 11 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
LA Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home

Tampa Bay @ Las Vegas
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay


Monday, October 26

Chicago @ LA Rams
Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL Week 7 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle) sat out Sunday against Baltimore and is likely out this week against the Giants, too, contributing to Philly's lengthy injury list.

NFL Week 6 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 7 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably a banged-up Philadelphia Eagles outfit working on a short week, with a Thursday game against the New York Giants.

Week 7 Injuries

Philadelphia Eagles: Right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle) sat out Sunday against Baltimore and is likely out this week against the Giants, too. Tight end Zach Ertz could miss three to four weeks with a high ankle sprain, and running back Miles Sanders (knee) is also expected to sit this week. The Eagles opened 6.5-point favorites Sunday and plummeted to -3.5 Monday at The SuperBook at Westgate.

?The Eagles move was due strictly to injuries,? SuperBook risk manager Cameron Coombs said, noting the total is down a point to 44, as well. ?Also, there is buzz over if Carson Wentz is going to start.?

It seems likely Wentz ? who took a beating against the Ravens ? will play. But as CBS Sports? Jeff Kerr reported, of the 11 Week 1 starters on offense, by the fourth quarter of Sunday?s loss, there were only two left: Wentz and center Jason Kelce.

Tennessee Titans: Left tackle Taylor Lewan, protecting Ryan Tannehill?s blind side, is done for the year after suffering a torn ACL in Sunday?s overtime win against Houston. The SuperBook opened Tennessee +1 at home against Pittsburgh, and that line quickly shot to +2.5 Sunday night.

San Francisco 49ers: Running back Raheem Mostert has a high ankle sprain and is definitely out against New England, and he?ll likely land on injured reserve and miss a few weeks. Left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) is uncertain for Sunday?s game.

Week 7 Weather

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: The early-week forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain Sunday in Cincinnati. However, there was no early adjustment to the line of Browns -3.5 nor the total of 51.5.

 

[Udog]

Hot & Not Report - Week 7
Matt Blunt

Who's Hot

1) NFL home teams in divisional games are 18-7 SU overall this year; 12-4 SU since the beginning of Week 2
2) NFL divisional favorites (no matter the site) are 17-8 SU this year overall, and 13-3 SU since beginning of Week 2

These look like some conflicting runs for some of the divisional games in Week 7, as there are numerous divisional road favorites this week. Those recent runs since Week 2 have more or less lined up with just having the home team deserving of laying chalk, and it is the run related to the home teams I do want to lean on here.

Week 7 NFL Division Matchups

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-4)
Cleveland (-3) at Cincinnati
Dallas (-1) at Washington
Carolina at New Orleans (-7.5)
Buffalo (-13) at N.Y. Jets
Seattle (-3.5) at Arizona
Kansas City (-9) at Denver

As you can see above, five of the seven games actually have road favorites this week, so one of these runs is likely to be tough this week.

During that 18-7 SU run for NFL home teams in divisional games, those same teams have gone 16-9 ATS, so taking the points with some of those ugly home underdogs should definitely be worth a look.

Who Do You Follow?

Eagles
Bengals
Football Team
Saints
Jets
Cardinals
Broncos

But this is still more about the outright wins here, and with Cincinnati, Washington, and Arizona all catching about a FG or less at home this week, an outright win by at least one of them shouldn't be all that far fetched.

Expecting Denver or the New York Jets to pull off an outright upset ? it would be two in a row for the Broncos as big dogs ? are far less likely, but you just never know in this league.

Of the two divisional home favorites this week, Philly and New Orleans definitely come with their share of warts this season, but the Eagles showed a lot of character in fighting back against Baltimore like they did and New Orleans is coming off their bye week.

Philly continues to get hit hard by the injury bug everywhere on their roster, and the fact that their game this week is the TNF contest on a short week, you can understand why that opener of Philly -6 has been bet down the way it has. But outright wins by home teams in divisional games are what make up the bulk of both of those runs, so maybe a ML option on the Eagles is worth considering if you've got enough faith in the starters they are putting out there.

But Week 7's divisional games in the marketplace will be decided overall by what these home underdogs do in those five contests, which brings me to...


Who's Not

1) NFL divisional road favorites are 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU this year

The Los Angeles Rams were the latest victim of this trend last week on Sunday Night Football when they lost to the 49ers, as they joined Kansas City not covering (Week 2 vs LAC), Buffalo not covering (Week 2 vs Miami), Philadelphia not covering (Week 1 vs Washington), and Indianapolis not covering (Week 1 vs Jacksonville) in their opportunities as divisional road favorites.

Only the Chiefs and Bills were able to escape with a "W" in the win column for those games, and we've got five games that fit this scenario in Week 7 to potentially fire on?

Who do you Fade?

Browns
Cowboys
Bills
Seahawks

To start with, just like last week's ?Not? run giving the market yet another reason to fade Dallas again (and successfully doing so vs Arizona), going against the Cowboys pops up again this week in a game that's already been bet down to a pick'em.

Tough to like anything you're seeing out of the Cowboys these days, but despite all that, they are still in first place in the division and remain the favorites to win the NFC East. If that's the line of thought you generally subscribe too, it means you must believe the rest of the NFC East to really be that bad, which makes holding a Washington ATS/ML ticket at this current price a little tough to really get behind.

Tough to go with Dallas for sure, but this winless run for road divisional favorites aside, if you didn't grab Washington at the opener of +3, they are probably one home division dog that's easier to pass on this week.

Of the rest of the games, Cincinnati is in a rematch spot after losing 35-30 to Cleveland on a Thursday Night Football game back in Week 2.

That was one of those SU wins but ATS losses for divisional home favorites that day, and if you go on what you saw from Cleveland in Week 6, fading them here in Week 7 with a Bengals team with revenge, is 4-2 ATS, and having both of these runs working in their favor. Seems quite an attractive home underdog to me.


Which leaves plays on Arizona (+3.5), NYJ (+13), and Denver (+9) to consider, and as ugly as it will feel, perhaps taking the points with those two big underdogs at least are something to think about.

Denver played well enough to get the win in New England on Sunday, but that was likely more to do with everything the Patriots have dealt with in recent weeks.

A Broncos cover will only come with another strong day from this defense ? and likely a surprisingly productive one from the Broncos offense ? but the Chiefs have been flirting with more ATS losses than their 4-2 ATS record actually shows.

Kansas City was able to just sneak over the number against the Bills on Monday Night ? partly because KC's RB ran out of bounds late in the game ? KC lost outright to the Raiders, covered a -11 number vs New England thanks to a pick-six off of Edelman's hands among a multitude of errors for New England that day, throttled Baltimore as a small road dog, and needed OT to knock off the Chargers.

That's four games with the Chiefs listed as a favorite that they could have easily gone 0-4 ATS rather than the 2-2 like they did, and it was the perceived two worst teams of that group (Las Vegas, L.A. Chargers) that arguably gave KC the most trouble.

But those two organizations are also the only two division rivals of KC on that list, so it does suggest there is plenty to know about Mahomes and this Chiefs offense and what to expect. Denver's right there in that same boat.

I don't need to mention how bad the Jets are, and after getting shutout 24-0 in Miami, the Jets are probably going to be the most faded team this week in straight bets, survivor pools, teasers, and ML parlays.

New York deserves every part of that reputation right now, but there does come a point where the points a team is getting is too far ballooned away from reality because of the market perception/reality being what it is on a team.

Is that the case here with New York catching nearly two TD's at home versus a Buffalo team that's a little unsure of what day of the week they are even supposed to be playing on right now? I'm not sure. But as gut-wrenching as it is to write these words for my bankroll, taking the points with the Jets is the only way I'd look in this game.

But let's see just how high this line climbs as Sunday approaches. After all, Buffalo's gone through all those rescheduling dates lately and has this Jets game sandwiched between home games against the Chiefs and Patriots.

Very easy to overlook a brutal team like the Jets have shown they are this season.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Giants (1-5) @ Philadelphia (1-4-1)
? In their last four games, Giants? offense has four TD?s on 33 drives.
? Giants? defense scored a TD in each of their last two games.
? Big Blue is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog TY, losing by 4-8-3 points on road.
? Giants covered 13 of their last 16 games as a road underdog.
? Four of their six games stayed under the total.

? Eagles are 0-2-1 SU at home, giving up 30 ppg.
? Philly lost last two games, giving up 38-30 points.
? Underdogs covered five of their six games this season.
? Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
? Four of their six games went over the total.

? Eagles won last seven series games; five of those wins were by 6 or fewer points.
? Giants lost their last four visits here, by 5-3-3-6 points.

Browns (4-2) @ Cincinnati (1-4-1)
? Browns got crushed by Ravens/Steelers, won other four games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
? Cleveland gave up 38 points in all three road games, losing two of them.
? Browns were outscored in second half in five of their six games.
? Last 4+ years, Cleveland is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
? Four of their last five games went over the total.

? Bengals lost last two weeks, 27-3/31-27; they blew a 21-0 lead at Indy last week.
? Cincinnati is 4-1-1 ATS this season.
? Bengals split their two home games, losing 16-13 to Chargers.
? Cincy is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
? Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

? Browns (-8) beat Cincy 35-30 in Week 2; they ran ball for 215 yards, averaged 9.5 yards/pass attempt- they scored five TD?s on eight drives.
? Cleveland won five of last six series games, but lost four of last five visits to Cincinnati, with all four losses by 10+ points.

Cowboys (2-4) @ Washington (1-5)
? Short week for Dallas after their dismal home loss Monday.
? Last five games, Dallas is minus-13 in turnovers.
? Cowboys are 0-6 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
? This is their first road game since Week 3; they lost first two road games, 20-18/38-31.
? Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
? Four of their last five games went over the total.

? Washington lost its last five games, giving up 29 ppg.
? Last four games, Washington was outscored 46-16 in second half.
? Backup QB Allen gets his third straight start here they outgained the Giants 337-240 in LW?s 20-19 loss. Allen is 6-9 as an NFL starter.
? Washington is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
? Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

? Dallas won seven of last eight series games, with four of last five wins by 10+ points.
? Cowboys won six of last seven visits here.
? Dallas scored 31-31-47 points in last three series games.

Lions (2-3) @ Atlanta (1-5)
? Detroit scored 26-29-34 points in last three games; they won last two road tilts.
? Lions allowed 27+ points in their three losses; 23-16 in their wins.
? Detroit has six takeaways in last three games (+4); they had none in first two games (-2)
? Lions are 10-12 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.
? NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

? Falcons won their first game under interim coach Morris LW, at Minnesota.
? Atlanta lost all three of its home games, giving up 30.3 ppg.
? Falcons are 5-9 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
? Four of their six games went over the total.
? NFC South teams are 1-6 ATS in non-divisional home games.

? Atlanta won four of last five series games; last meeting was 2017.
? Home side lost five of last seven series games.
? This is the Lions? first visit to Atlanta since 2008.

Panthers (3-3) @ New Orleans (3-2)
? Bridgewater plays against his old team here.
? Carolina won three of its last four games.
? Panthers won two of three road games, losing 31-17 in Tampa.
? Team leading at halftime won all six Carolina games.
? Carolina is 14-10 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog- they won both their games on artificial turf this year.
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

? New Orleans scored 30+ points in four of its five games.
? Saints allowed 23-29-27 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
? New Orleans is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.
? Saints are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 post-bye games.
? All five of their games went over the total.

? Saints won six of last seven series games; three of their last four series wins were by 5 or fewer points.
? Carolina lost four of last five visits to Bourbon Street; three of their last four losses here were by 5 or fewer points.

Bills (4-2) @ NJ Jets (0-6)
? Short week for Bills after their home loss to KC Monday.
? Buffalo lost its last two games, giving up 42-26 points, after a 4-0 start.
? Bills scored 27+ points in their wins; 16-17 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 4-3 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
? Last four games, Buffalo opponents converted 29-48 third down plays.
? Five of their six games went over the total.

? Jets haven?t won or covered yet, losing home games by 18-9-20 points.
? Weird thing is, they?re +5 in turnovers the last three games, but were still outscored by a combined 91-38.
? Jets are 4-7-1 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog, 0-2 TY.
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
? Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

? Buffalo (-6.5) beat the Jets 27-17 at home in Week 1, outgunning Jets 404-254- they led 21-3 at halftime, won field position by 19 yards with an even turnover ratio.
? Bills are 6-5 in last 11 series games; they won 41-10/17-16 in last two visits here.

Packers (4-1) @ Houston (1-5)
? Green Bay won four of its five games, losing LW in Tampa.
? Packers are already 2-0 in domes TY, winning 43-34/37-30.
? Green Bay went 3/out on 7 of 13 drives LW, after it happened only once in their first 35 drives this season.
? Packers are 3-4 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite.
? NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

? Texans scored 30-36 points in splitting first two games under interim coach Crennel; they scored 20 ppg in their 0-4 start.
? Tennessee gained 601 yards vs Houston LW, running ball for 263.
? Texans averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in each of last three games.
? Houston is 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
? AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 2-5 ATS.

? Green Bay won three of four series games; the loss was in ?08.
? Packers won 16-13/42-24 in their two visits here.
? JJ Watt is from Waukesha, Wisconsin.

Seahawks (5-0) @ Arizona (4-2)
? Seattle won its first five games, scoring 33.6 ppg.
? Seahawks have scored 23 TD?s on 52 drives this seasom
? Seattle won its first two road games, 38-25/31-23; they?re 7-4-4 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
? Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
? Four of their five games went over the total.

? Short week for Cardinals after their win in Dallas Monday.
? Arizona scored 30+ points in three of its four wins- they scored 23-21 in their losses.
? Redbirds are 4-3 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.
? Five of their six games stayed under the total.
? Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

? Road team is 9-1-1 SU in last 11 series games.
? Seahawks won their last six visits to the desert, with four of the wins by 12+ points.

49ers (3-3) @ New England (2-3)
? Garoppolo returns to Foxboro to face his former team.
? 49ers won both their road games, which were against Jets/Giants in New Jersey.
? Niners are 3-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
? 49ers are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
? NFC West teams are 12-7 ATS outside the division.

? Patriots lost last two games, scoring two TD?s on 21 drives, with seven turnovers.
? New England won two of three home games, winning by 10-16 points.
? New England is 26-14-1 ATS in last 41 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
? Under is 3-2 in Patriot games this season.
? AFC East teams are 5-10 ATS outside the division.

? New England won four of last five series games, with last three wins all by 9+ points.
? 49ers are 4-3 in Foxboro; their last visit was in 2012.

Chiefs (5-1) @ Denver (2-3)
? Short week for Chiefs after their win in Buffalo Monday nite.
? Chiefs are 3-0 on foreign soil, winning by 3-14-9 points.
? KC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games as a road favorite.
? Chiefs ran for 245 yards Monday, most-ever under Andy Reid.
? Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

? Denver won its last two games; they won LW without scoring a TD.
? Broncs lost both their home games, 16-14/28-10.
? Denver allowed 321-288 yards in its wins; they?re 0-3 allowing more than 321.
? Broncos are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
? Divisional home underdogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season.

? Chiefs won last nine series games (30-6/23-3 LY).
? KC won its last five visits to Denver; three of their last four wins here were by 4 or fewer points.

Steelers (5-0) @ Tennessee (5-0)
? Steelers won first five games (4-1 ATS), scoring 31.2 ppg.
? This is only 2nd road game for Pittsburgh; they beat Giants 26-16 in Swamp in Week 1.
? Steelers are 5-9-2 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
? Steelers outscored last three foes 46-15 in second half.
? Three of their last four games went over.
? AFC North teams are 11-3-1 ATS outside the division.

? Tennessee has three wins by 3 or fewer points, plus an OT win.
? Titans scored 21+ points in 2nd half, in each of their last three games.
? Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
? Titans? last four games went over the total.
? AFC South teams are 6-9 ATS outside the division.

? Steelers won five of last seven series games.
? Pittsburgh lost four of its last six visits to Nashville.

Buccaneers (4-2) @ Las Vegas (3-2)
? Tampa Bay won four of its last five games, scoring 32.8 ppg.
? Bucs are allowing only 64.7 rushing yards/game.
? Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
? Three of their last four games stayed under.
? NFC South non-divisional road teams are 5-3 ATS.

? Jon Gruden hosts the team he led to their only Super Bowl title.
? Raiders scored 34-34-40 points in their wins, 20-23 in losses.
? Las Vegas has led only one of its games at halftime, beck in Week 1.
? All five of their games went over the total.
? AFC West teams are 10-4-2 ATS outside the division.

? Raiders won seven of ten series games.
? Buccaneers lost five to six visits to play Raiders in LA/Oakland.

Jaguars (1-5) @ LA Chargers (1-4)
? Jaguars lost last five games, are 0-4 ATS in last four.
? Jacksonville gave up 32 ppg in last five games; their road losses are by 3-7-16 points.
? Jaguars are 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
? Three of their last four games stayed under.
? AFC South teams are 6-9 ATS outside the division.

? Chargers lost their last four games, two of them in OT.
? Last two games, Bolts were outscored 44-14 in second half.
? LA lost its two home games, by total of eight points.
? Chargers are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
? AFC West teams are 10-4-2 ATS outside the division.

? Chargers won seven of last eight series games; they won 45-13 in Jacksonville LY.
? Bolts scored 31+ points in six of those eight games.
? Jaguars lost their last four visits to San Diego, all by 13+ points.

Bears (5-1) @ Rams (4-2)
? Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
? Bears won all three of their road games SU, and were underdog in all three.
? Chicago is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
? Four of their last five games stayed under.
? NFC North teams are 11-5 ATS outside the division.

? Rams won both their home games, 20-17/17-9.
? LA has outscored opponents 79-25 in second half of games.
? Under McVay, Rams are 11-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? LA?s last three games stayed under the total.
? NFC West teams are 12-7 ATS outside the division.

? Home side won five of last six series games.
? Teams split last four series games.
? Bears split their last eight visits to StL/LA.
? Last two years: Bears 15-6 (icy weather), Rams 17-7

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack
Odds for this week?s PGA stop, the ZoZo Championship:
+1100? Rahm
+1275? Schauffele, Thomas
+1450? McIlroy
+1625? Morkiawa
+2400? Hatton
+2700? Reed

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 221,150
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?Freshmen come in thinking, ?If I can score, I can play.? They quickly find out if they can defend, they?ll play.?
Steve Fisher

Thursday?s quiz
There are two guys in the Pro Football Hall of Fame who also won a gold medal in the Olympics; one is Bob Hayes, who is the other?
Hint: He played before the Super Bowl era

Wednesday?s quiz
In The Wizard of Oz, Dorothy was from Kansas.

Tuesday?s quiz
Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Phillies in their other World Series appearance, in 2008.


********************

Thursday?s Den: Doing some thinking out loud??..

13) Rays 6, Dodgers 4 (series 1-1)
? Blake Snell didn?t allow a hit until 5th inning; bullpen got the last 16 outs.
? Brandon Lowe snapped out of a slump, homered twice for the Rays.
? Joey Wendle knocked in three runs for Tampa Bay.
? Game 3 is Friday night in Arlington.

12) Dodger OF Cody Bellinger hit 47 homers last year, seems headed to becoming a big star, but he?s got a ways to go before he catches up with his dad, at least in one category.

Clay Bellinger played in 193 big league games over parts of four seasons with Bronx and the Angels; he hit 12 career homers, struck out 82 times, bur he also won THREE World Series rings, two in New York, a third one with the Angels. Cody is trying for his first one this year.

Today, I?m looking at how NFL teams do on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line; can.a team?s offense carry the team, if need be? Lot of strong teams have really good special teams and defenses, so the offense?s job is a somewhat simpler, but which offenses drive the field the best?

11) Top teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
? Raiders 3.37 points/possession
? Steelers 3.16
? Chiefs 2.95
? Dolphins 2.62
? Rams 2.58

10) Worst teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
? Jets 0.48 points/possession
? Washington 0.69
? Broncos 0.86
? Bears 1.24
? Cleveland 1.43

If a team gives up a defensive TD/safety, it goes against them in this category.

9) Obviously, teams that have better field position are more likely to win. These teams have started the lowest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
47.5% (29 of 61)? Ravens
50%? Colts
51.0%? Steelers
57.8%? Buccaneers
60.8%? Titans

All teams with winning records.

8) These teams have started the highest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
85.7% (48 of 56)? Jets
82.5%? Vikings
81.5%? Chargers
79.4%? Cowboys
78.3%? Patriots

Interesting that New England has started 36 of 46 drives 75+ yards from the goal line.

7) Since 1986, NFL teams that started the season 0-6 won an average of 3.0 games the rest of the season.

6) Clemson is a 46-point favorite over Syracuse Saturday; there is one sportsbook in America offering a money line on this game. Risk $1,000 on Clemson, win a dollar, One dollar.

5) Dallas Cowboys are 3-10 in their last 13 playoff games, losing their last eight road playoff games- their last road playoff win was 1993, in San Francisco.

4) Jets have been outscored 114-29 in the second half of games this year.

3) Only one person has won an Olympic Gold Medal and also played on a Super Bowl champ; Bob Hayes, who was a very fast receiver for the Cowboys, from 1965-74. He won a gold medal in the 100 meters sprint at the 1964 Olympics in Tokyo.

2) Memphis Tigers? WR Damonte Coxie has opted out of this season, and is headed to prepare for the NFL Draft; he caught 16 balls for 175 yards in two games this year, then sat out the UCF game Saturday, and now he?s bolted the team for greener pa$ture$.

Last two years, Coxie caught a combined 148 passes for 2,450 yards and 16 TD?s.

1) 3-3 Miami Dolphins are changing QB?s after their bye week; rookie Tua Tagovailoa will get his first NFL start against the Rams next week, replacing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had been playing really well.