CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

NFL WEEK 1 PROP BETTING CARD

Lamar Jackson Over 220.5 passing yards (-120)
Joe Burrow Over 15.5 yards rushing (-120)
Buffalo Bills Over 2.5 touchdowns (-121)
Dallas Goedert Over 33.5 receiving yards (-120) and Over 3.5 receptions (-113)
--
Baker Mayfield Over 245.5 passing yards (-115)
T.J. Hockenson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Indianapolis to score every quarter ? YES (+162)
Dwayne Haskins Over 11.5 rushing yards (-135)
--
Marlon Mack Over 54.5 rushing yards (-122)
Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards (-119)
Tyler Lockett Over 67.5 receiving yards (-120)
--
Team to score the longest touchdown - Kansas City (-160)
Le?Veon Bell Under 55.5 rushing yards (-116)
Todd Gurley Under 83.5 total yards (-115)
Ryan Tannehill Over 230.5 passing yards (-115)

 

[Cnotes53]

THE BEST NFL BETS AGAINST THE SPREAD IN HOME OPENERS

No preseason and muzzled media coverage at training camp makes NFL Week 1 betting a bit like flying on a trapeze without a net.

And then there?s the issue of having no fans or limited attendance. Sports betting lore tells us home field is worth a field goal to the point spread but does that hold up in 2020?

To make sense of these confusing times, we go to the past to see which teams could provide a little extra NFL betting value when betting their early home stands.

These are the best NFL bets in home openers since 2006.

ATLANTA FALCONS: 12-2 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
The Falcons moved into the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2017 and carried with them an impressive record against the spread in home openers, going 3-0 ATS in those contests the past three seasons. Before then, Atlanta was 9-2 ATS in its first game in front of the Georgia Dome faithful going back to 2006.

The Falcons have scored an average of 28.3 points (the irony is not lost on us) in those games while giving up just 21.2 points against, for a comfy winning margin of a touchdown. Atlanta hosts Seattle in Week 1 as a 1-point home underdog and ? after some flip-flopping ? will not have fans in attendance.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: 10-3-1 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Not a big surprise here. Lambeau is one of those home fields that could be worth more than the customary field goal to the spread. Green Bay did fail to cover in its home opener with Chicago two years ago ? a wild comeback from 20-0 down to the Bears ? but has been all that and a block of cheese in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in home debuts since 2015.

Over the past 14 seasons, the Packers own an average 25-20 edge in home openers but will have to wait until Week 2 to improve on that metric. Green Bay is in Minnesota in Week 1 but hosts Detroit as a 7-point favorite at an empty Lambeau Field on September 20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 10-4 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Another no-brainer and a home field absolutely worth more than three points to the point spread. CenturyLink Field is one of the most disruptive venues in the NFL, with deafening crowd noise and soggy Seattle weather plaguing visiting teams. However, the infamous 12th Man is locked out for at least the first three games of 2020.

As mentioned above, the Seahawks are in Atlanta for Week 1 but host new-look New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, giving 3.5 points to the Patriots. Now, before you blindly throw you shekels down on Seattle, know that the Seahawks are just 1-3 ATS in home openers the past four seasons, including squeaking out a 21-20 win over Cincinnati as 9.5-point chalk in 2019?s home opener.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: 9-5 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Fans or no fans, you aren?t getting any discounts on the Ravens this season. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite hosting Cleveland in Week 1, looking to cover for the fourth time in the past five home openers. The Ravens didn?t come through for the Maryland fanbase last season, knocking off Arizona 23-17 as 13-point home chalk in Week 2. That spread was massively inflated on the heels of the Ravens? 59-10 drubbing at Miami the game before.

What?s most impressive about Baltimore?s ATS prowess in home openers is the fact that the team has faced an average spread of -6.7 in those 14 games and still managed to crank out a 64-percent ATS winning clip. The Ravens own an average final score of 26-13 over those home debuts, which looks promising considering the large Week 1 spread versus the Browns.

DENVER BRONCOS: 7-4-3 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Pulling the trigger on the Broncos in home openers is one of my annual NFL wagers and one of the best betting trends with teeth. The above record doesn?t tell the full story and unfortunately, those pushes have taken some of the ?wow? out of this trend, which is hitting at 64 percent since 2006.

However, if we go back even further, Denver?s dominance in home openers is straight-up bonkers. Since 2000, the Broncos are 18-2 SU and 12-4-4 ATS (75%) in those Mile High debuts. One of the likely reasons for this success is the high-altitude impact on visiting teams that aren?t in full game shape during the opening weeks of the schedule. The Broncos are 1.5-point home favorites against Tennessee for a fanless Monday Night Football meeting in Week 1.

 

[eeeerock]

Really appreciate the posts, one of the best threads here just based on all the different trends and results you share!!!:0059:0059

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -7.0
U 47.0
+500 +500

CHI at DET 01:00 PM
DET -2.5
U 42.5
+500 +500

IND at JAC 01:00 PM
IND -7.0
U 44.0
+500 +500

GB at MIN 01:00 PM
GB +1.5
O 45.0
+500 +500

SEA at ATL 01:00 PM
SEA +1.0
U 49.5
+500 +500

LV at CAR 01:00 PM
LV -3.0
U 48.0
+500 +500

NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM
NYJ +6.5
U 39.5
+500 +500

PHI at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +5.5
U 41.5
+500 +500

MIA at NE 01:00 PM
MIA +7.5
U 41.5
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES:


LAC at CIN 04:05 PM
CIN +3.0
O 41.5
+500 +500

ARI at SF 04:25 PM
ARI +7.0
U 48.0
+500 +500

TB at NO 04:25 PM
NO -3.5
U 47.5
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY NIGHT LATE GAME:

DAL at LAR 08:20 PM
DAL -2.0
O 52.0
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals......13-14-1.........48.14%.....-11.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344? Buffalo +6.5- W
337? LA Rams +3- W
304? Atlanta +2.5- L
303? Tennessee -2.5
280? Arizona +6.5- W
243? Pittsburgh -6

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
Please wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Seahawks 38, Atlanta 25:
? Four trips to red zone, four TD?s for Seattle.
? Last three years, Seahawks are 14-9-2 ATS on the road.
? Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten games vs Atlanta.

? Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in a losing cause.
? Atlanta gained 506 yards but was -2 (0-2) in turnovers.
? Last 2+ years, Falcons are 6-10-2 vs spread at home.

Buffalo 27, Jets 17
? Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position, very big.
? Jets are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
? Last four years, Gang Green is 4-7-2 ATS in AFC East road games.

? Buffalo threw the ball 26 times in first half; surprising.
? Bills won seven of last ten home openers (9-5 ATS in last 14)
? Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers as a home favorite.

Bears 27, Detroit 23
? Detroit led 23-6 after three quarters.
? Last four drives for Chicago: 22 plays, 155 yards, 21 points.
? Chicago won last five series games, winning last three visits to the Motor City.

? Guy on Lions dropped a pretty easy pass in end zone with 0:06 left.
? Last two years, Detroit is 7-10 ATS at home.
? Lions are 9-23-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.

Packers 43, Minnesota 34
? Packers scored five TD?s on nine possessions.
? Green Bay had a 14-yard advantage in field position.
? Over is 12-3 in Green Bay?s last 15 road openers

? Pack ran 76 plays for 522 yards; Vikings ran 49 plays.
? Vikings had 8 plays of 20+ yards; 7 of them came on 1st down.
? Under Zimmer, Minnesota is now 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.

New England 21, Dolphins 11
? Fitzpatrick threw 3 INT?s, including one in end zone with 1:28 when a TD would?ve at least covered the spread.
? Since 2014, Miami is 16-26 ATS as road underdogs
? Miami lost 11 of its last 12 visits to Foxboro.

? Newton threw for 155 yards, ran 15 times for 75 yards.
? Since 2015, New England is 25-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
? NE won 17 of its last 19 home openers (10-7-2 ATS)

Washington 27, Eagles 17
? Eagles led 17-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
? Philly?s last 11 drives: 42 plays, 100 yards, 0 points, 3 turnovers.
? Washington had a 15-yard edge in field position.

? Washington?s points were all scored on drives that started in Philly territory.
? Ron Rivera is Washington?s coach; he had a chemo treatment during the week, took an IV at halftime. Tough freakin? guy.
? As a head coach, Rivera is 13-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Raiders 34, Charlotte 30
? Jacobs carried ball 25 times for 93 yards, three TD?s
? Three of four Las Vegas TD drives were 75+ yards.
? Raiders covered five of their last six road openers.

? McCaffrey ran for 96 yards, but caught only three passes.
? Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays.
? Since 2016, Panthers are 14-18-1 ATS at home.

Jacksonville 27, Colts 20
? Indy outgained Jags 445-241, but was -2 in turnovers.
? Colts lost their last five trips to Jacksonville.
? Indy lost nine of its last 11 road openers, six of last seven season openers.

? Minshew completed 19-20 passes for 173 yards, three TD?s.
? Jacksonville covered 10 of last 15 AFC South home games.
? Jaguars last five home openers went over the total.

Baltimore 38, Browns 6
? Cleveland scored only one TD and missed the PAT after.
? Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? Since 2003, Browns, are 6-10-2 ATS in road openers.

? Ravens had a 23-yard advantage in starting field position.
? Baltimore won its last five Week 1 games, by combined score of 177-26.
? Ravens won 14 of last 16 home openers (11-5 ATS).

Chargers 16, Cincinnati 13
? Bengals? game-winning TD with 0:06 left was nullified by offensive pass interference call.
? Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
? Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road openers.

? Bengals averaged 4.4 yards/pass attempt; their only TD drive was 44 yards.
? Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
? Cincy is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.

New Orleans 34, Buccaneers 23
? Buccaneers turned ball over three times; Brady threw a pick-6.
? Arians is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
? Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.

? Saints scored the only defensive TD of the week so far.
? Since 2014, New Orleans is 16-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Saints had a 24-yard edge in starting field position.

Cardinals 24, San Francisco 20
? WR Hopkins caught 14 passes for 151 yards; why did Houston trade HIM?
? Cardinals are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
? Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on third down.
? Redbirds won five of their last six visits here.

? 49ers are 7-16-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
? Niners covered twice in last ten NFC West home games.
? Six of 49ers? last seven home openers stayed under the total
? Five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Rams 20, Cowboys 17
? Dallas converted only 3-12 third down plays.
? Prescott averaged only 5.8 yards/pass attempt.
? Cowboys had only one play of 20+ yards.

? Rams held Dallas to a field goal in second half.
? Under McVay, Rams are 15-8 SU at home.
? Rams won/covered their last six home openers.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.

NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium ? albeit with no fans ? against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 2 odds

These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13.

Bengals at Browns

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there?s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.


Rams at Eagles

Opening line
Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
"Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."


Panthers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Broncos at Steelers

Opening line
Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Falcons at Cowboys

Opening line
Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.


49ers at Jets

Opening line
Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Bills at Dolphins

Opening line
Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Vikings at Colts

Opening line
Colts -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Lions at Packers

Opening line
Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Giants at Bears

Opening line
Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Jaguars at Titans

Opening line
Titans -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Washington at Cardinals

Opening line
Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Ravens at Texans

Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."


Chiefs at Chargers

Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.


Patriots at Seahawks

Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."


Saints at Raiders

Opening line
+4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could?ve been for this city. What an event that would?ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.

I?m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.

The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.

If you?re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now

The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys? loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.

Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air ? a stat that should make Dallas? shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.


Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later

This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.

The Bills? 2020 debut wasn?t bad, but it wasn?t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.

The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren?t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you?re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.


New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now

The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.

Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.

This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it?s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.


Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.

The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.

The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.

Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TEN at DEN 10:20 PM
DEN +3.0
O 41.0
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals......14-15-1.........48.27%.....-11.50

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.

NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium ? albeit with no fans ? against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 2 odds

These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13. Click on each matchup in the table below to get updated in-depth information on the opening lines, sharp money, public betting, and odds movement as we get closer to kickoff.

Bengals at Browns

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there?s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.


Rams at Eagles

Opening line
Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
"Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."


Panthers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Broncos at Steelers

Opening line
Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Falcons at Cowboys

Opening line
Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.


49ers at Jets

Opening line
Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Bills at Dolphins

Opening line
Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Vikings at Colts

Opening line
Colts -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Lions at Packers

Opening line
Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Giants at Bears

Opening line
Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Jaguars at Titans

Opening line
Titans -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Washington at Cardinals

Opening line
Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Ravens at Texans

Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."


Chiefs at Chargers

Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.


Patriots at Seahawks

Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."


Saints at Raiders

Opening line
+4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could?ve been for this city. What an event that would?ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.

I?m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.

The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.

If you?re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now

The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys? loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.

Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air ? a stat that should make Dallas? shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.


Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later

This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.

The Bills? 2020 debut wasn?t bad, but it wasn?t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.

The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren?t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you?re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.


New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now

The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.

Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.

This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it?s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.


Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.

The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.

The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.

Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 2 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

49ers star tight end George Kittle suffered a sprained left knee in a Week 1 loss to Arizona. His status for Week 2 against the New York Jets is currently up in the air.

NFL Week 1 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 2 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. Maybe a key player got dinged up last weekend, or public opinion is forming around a convincing Week 1 winner.

This week?s NFL Cheat Sheet will serve as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 2 Injuries

New York Jets: Running back Le?Veon Bell will be out this week at home against the 49ers, and perhaps longer, with a hamstring injury suffered in Sunday?s loss to the Bills. The SuperBook at Westgate has New York a 6.5-point home underdog to San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers: Star tight end George Kittle has a sprained left knee, the team announced Monday. More will be known on Kittle?s status by midweek, but it wasn?t affecting the line much at The SuperBook at Westgate. The 49ers opened -6.5 at the Jets and bounced to -7 a couple of times, then back to -6.5.

New Orleans Saints: Wideout Michael Thomas suffered a high ankle injury against the Buccaneers, but early indications are that he?ll be OK for Week 2 at the Raiders. Bettors aren?t concerned, having already helped push the Saints from -4.5 to -6 at The SuperBook.

Indianapolis Colts: Running back Marlon Mack tore his Achilles in the second quarter of Sunday?s loss to Jacksonville, and he is done for the season. Whatever impact Mack?s absence has on the line was factored into The SuperBook?s opening number of -3, which stuck after going up Sunday night.

Cleveland Browns: Rookie left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (leg) is questionable for Thursday?s home game against the Bengals, while tight end David Njoku was place on the injured reserve with a sprained left knee. The Browns opened -6.5 at The SuperBook and quickly dropped to -6.

Week 2 Weather

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon in Tampa, with a 40 percent chance, with north/northeast winds of 10-20 mph. SuperBook oddsmakers opened the total at 49 and left it there through Monday.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: As in Tampa, there?s a 40 percent chance of afternoon rain in Miami on Sunday. The total, though, is steady at 41.5 at The SuperBook.

 

[Cnotes53]

101CINCINNATI -102 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.

261LA RAMS -262 PHILADELPHIA
LA RAMS are 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

263CAROLINA -264 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

265DENVER -266 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 79-46 ATS (28.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.

267ATLANTA -268 DALLAS
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after an upset loss in the last 3 seasons.

269SAN FRANCISCO -270 NY JETS
NY JETS are 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) off a road loss against a division rival since 1992.

271BUFFALO -272 MIAMI
BUFFALO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) off a home win against a division rival since 1992.

273MINNESOTA -274 INDIANAPOLIS
MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.

275DETROIT -276 GREEN BAY
DETROIT is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

277NY GIANTS -278 CHICAGO
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts. in the last 3 seasons.

279JACKSONVILLE -280 TENNESSEE
JACKSONVILLE is 26-12 ATS (12.8 Units) in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

281WASHINGTON -282 ARIZONA
WASHINGTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in the last 3 seasons.

283BALTIMORE -284 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

285KANSAS CITY -286 LA CHARGERS
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

287NEW ENGLAND -288 SEATTLE
NEW ENGLAND is 33-11 ATS (20.9 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.

289NEW ORLEANS -290 LAS VEGAS
NEW ORLEANS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 17

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CINCINNATI (0 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/17/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 20

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LA RAMS (1 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 1) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 149-192 ATS (-62.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 76-107 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (7 - 9) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (7 - 9) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 4) at NY JETS (7 - 9) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (10 - 7) at MIAMI (5 - 11) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (11 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 9) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 12 - 1) at GREEN BAY (14 - 4) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 199-146 ATS (+38.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (4 - 12) at CHICAGO (8 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (6 - 10) at TENNESSEE (11 - 8) - 9/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-159 ATS (-49.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 13) at ARIZONA (5 - 10 - 1) - 9/20/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (14 - 3) at HOUSTON (11 - 7) - 9/20/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (15 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) - 9/20/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) at SEATTLE (12 - 6) - 9/20/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-49 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-97 ATS (+23.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-97 ATS (+23.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (+31.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 21

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NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) at LAS VEGAS (7 - 9) - 9/21/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LAS VEGAS is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 17

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati


Sunday, September 20

Detroit @ Green Bay
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

NY Giants @ Chicago
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 11 games at home
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Atlanta @ Dallas
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Dallas is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home

San Francisco @ NY Jets
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
NY Jets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

LA Rams @ Philadelphia
LA Rams
LA Rams is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

Carolina @ Tampa Bay
Carolina
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

Denver @ Pittsburgh
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

Minnesota @ Indianapolis
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

Buffalo @ Miami
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Washington @ Arizona
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Washington

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games

Baltimore @ Houston
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

Monday, September 21

New England @ Seattle
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Seattle
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing New England
Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing New England

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 1
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+7, ML +280) at 49ers, 24-20
Jaguars (+7, ML +280) vs. Colts, 27-20
Football Team (+5.5, ML +210) vs. Eagles, 27-17
Bears (+2.5, ML +110) at Lions, 27-23

The largest favorite to cover

Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Texans, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Dolphins, 21-11
Ravens (-7) vs. Browns, 38-6
Bills (-6.5) vs. Jets, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

It happens. You'll see that guy in the corner of the bar or at the sportsbook in utter agony. Well, in normal non-COVID times, anyway. He was just buying strangers shots, whooping it up...then the bottom drops out. He likely bet a sizeable amount on a 1 o'clock game, already checked his game off as a win and has called the guy or hit the window or app to bet on the late-afternoon window of games a little more fervently than normal. Then, he checks the score. It goes downhill in a hurry.

I'll be honest. I played the Chicago Bears +3 Sunday on the road against the Detroit Lions solely on the fact WR Kenny Golladay was sidelined, and I figured the boys in silver and Honolulu blue would have a more ground-based attack. And it's never good to try and run into the teeth of the Bears defense, their strongest unit. Well, Detroit was running at will. RB Adrian Peterson, who was signed less than a week ago after being released from the Washington Football Team. He gobbled up 93 yards, or 6.6 yards per carry, and the Lions ran for 138 yards, a touchdown and 4.8 yards per tote. Anyway, through 45 minutes, the Lions led 23-6 and I was the opposite of that guy at the bar. At about 3:20 p.m. ET, I wrote this one off as my being on the wrong side, and was ready to move along. Then, QB Mitchell Trubisky did something he rarely ever does. He was effective in the fourth quarter, tossing three touchdowns to help the visitors outscore the Lions 21-0 in the final quarter, including 14 points in the final 2:58. Final score, Chicago 27-23. I'll take it.

Total Recall

Week 1 was difficult to figure heading into action, as the normal pomp and circumstance of opening day across the National Football League was a bit muted during this COVID era. We saw a smattering of fans allowed to attend the Thursday Night Football game between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. In the Sunday slate of games, only the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed fans in for their home game against the Indianapolis Colts. The normal places where fans make a huge difference with their noise did not affect sides or totals. But overall the action was good, and we had some pretty decent football, all things considered. Remember, there were no preseason games, so this was the first game action for a lot of these teams since last winter.

The lowest total on the board, and the only one in the 30's, was the AFC East tussle between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. If you were an over bettor, you liked the fast start, as the Bills tossed up a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes, and it was 21-3 at halftime. We had a single-digit number on the board in the third quarter, and the fourth quarter probably should have, too. However, the Jets scored a 2-yard rushing touchdown with just :54 left in regulation to flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

The highest total for Sunday's slate of games was the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49.5) game, which saw a total of 63 points. There were just 26 points on the board at halftime, and the total really could have gone either way. The total was stuck at 49 from 9:35 of the fourth quarter to 3:45 when Seahawks RB Carlos Hyde saved the day with a 1-yard touchdown plunge. Falcons WR Calvin Ridley dealt a crushing blow to under teaser bettors with a 7-yard scoring reception with just :33 remaining.

The Thursday night game barely inched 'over', and depending on when the wager was placed, the 'under' hit. We'll call it an over because it closed at 53.5. The Sunday Night game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams at the pristine SoFi Stadium near LAX was a defensive battle with just 37 total points and a 51-point total on the board. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants in the early MNF battle, and the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos in the late-night MNF affair, each went under. During the early going, the 'over' is just 1-3 (25.0%) in four primetime games.

In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the primetime schedule, a stark change from the previous six-year span. The over was ahead of the under in five of the six seasons from 2013-18, including an amazing 66.0% (33-17) clip in 2014.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bengals lost a heartbreaker at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, 16-13, easily hitting the 'under'. Rookie QB Joe Burrow was driving them for a potential winning touchdown drive. They faltered, and had to settle for a field goal to force overtime, but PK Randy Bullock appeared to pull up lame on the attempt and he shanked the kick, leaving the Bengals still in search of their first win since the 2018 season.

The Browns were trampled 38-6 by the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Cleveland's lack of offense also helped the under connect in their game. While the under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings between these rivals in Cleveland, the over is 4-0-1 in the previous five games overall in the series.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Panthers hit the over in 11 of their 16 games in 2019, while the Buccaneers led the NFL with 12 over results in 16 regular-season games. Those two teams hook up in 'Tompa Bay' next week, and both teams will be ornery. The Panthers fell 34-30 on their home field to the Las Vegas Raiders, as new head coach Matt Rhule went for it on fourth and inches late in the game, utilizing his fullback rather than RB Christian McCaffrey. The latter became just the third player in NFL history to run for at least 1,000 yards and post 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. Instead, Rhule chose to gain the tough yards with FB Alex Armah, who entered the game with 15 career carries and 26 yards in his first 41 NFL games. Yeah, the fans in Charlotte are wishing Riverboat Ron Rivera was back.

The Bucs, meanwhile, were manhandled by the New Orleans Saints 34-23. They didn't grab the cover, but the Bucs hit the over. Better times will be ahead. The Panthers have hit the number in six of their past seven in the shadows of the Pirate Ship at the Ray Jay, with the road team going 9-3 ATS in the past 12 overall in this series. The under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bills were tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with 12 under results in 16 regular-season games, leading the NFL in 2019. So that's what made their Week 1 over result against the New York Jets all the more surprising. The Dolphins hit the under, and they failed to cover. But at least they weren't boatraced like last season in Week 1, when Baltimore came to town and crowned them 59-10.

Anyway, the over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the previous six installments.

New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

This is actually a highly-anticipated Monday night game, a rarity in the series lately. New Orleans won their game, and Las Vegas won its road contest as well. While there will be no fans in attendance at the palacial Allegiant Stadium off of Interstate 15 in Las Vegas, the Raiders will make their Nevada debut. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Monday Night Football, with the over going 5-2 in those games. Conversely, the Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six MNF showings, and the under is a perfect 4-0 in their past four appearances on MNF.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 2
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 2 Betting Angles

Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season is officially in the books now, and there were some interesting results across the board.

History suggests there are some loose conclusions we can come to going forward into this week and the NFL futures market based on Week 1's results, and I'll get to that in a minute.

It was nice to see that last week's ?Hot? trend continued to stay that way, as that 18-4-1 SU run by playoff vs non-playoff teams coming into this year ending up going 5-2 SU again this year with the late Monday game still pending.

But it's all about staying ahead of the game in this industry and as Week 2 always gets hyped up for being ?overreaction? week, in that good or bad starts for any particular team shouldn't be too concerning long term, historically there isn't a whole lot of truth to that at least in terms of teams that did lose in Week 1.

Who's Hot

Backing Week 2 underdogs against a favorite that lost SU in Week 1 is 14-7 ATS the past three seasons, including 5-1 ATS a season ago.

You'll hear time and time again this week that one poor showing in Week 1 doesn't mean the sky is falling on that specific organization, and in a general sense that is true.

There is still 15 games in the year to make up for that one defeat, but if those teams are a 'chalk' in Week 2, I wouldn't want to be laying any wood with them.

Week 2 underdogs that are playing against a favored 0-1 SU team went 5-1 ATS a season ago, and has not posted a losing record in any of the three most recent seasons.

It was 5-1 ATS in 2019 with Tampa, Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Denver all covering their underdog lines and three of those five won the game outright. The lone outlier? Cleveland's 23-3 win as road chalk against the New York Jets last year.

Furthermore, within that 14-7 ATS run for these Week 2 underdogs vs an 0-1 SU team, not one of those years has posted a losing record. It went 5-1 ATS last year, 4-4 ATS in 2018, and 5-2 ATS in 2017. Not a bad blind system to at least begin your handicapping with this week.

So who does it apply to in Week 2?

Bengals
Rams
Jets
Vikings
Falcons
Panthers
Broncos
Jaguars

It starts with the Cincinnati Bengals catching +6 in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football after the Browns got beat down in Baltimore on Sunday.

From there, at least based on current lines from Draft Kings, it would suggest plays on the LA Rams (+1) vs Philadelphia, the NY Jets (+7) vs San Francisco, Minnesota (+3) vs Indianapolis, Atlanta (+5) vs Dallas, Carolina (+9) vs Tampa Bay, and potentially Denver (+6.5) vs Pittsburgh and Jacksonville (+10.5) vs Tennessee should the Steelers and Titans lose on MNF.

That's quite the card build already for those that would prefer to follow. Three years is far from a great sample size though, as it never hurts to simply use these things as support for your own weekly methods.


Who's Not

Since realignment in 2002, only 8 teams (of 36) have gone on to make the Super Bowl that year after starting out 0-1 SU

For much of the lead-up into the year we heard a lot about Tampa Bay and Dallas getting so much love for Super Bowl futures, if this history is any indication, those tickets may want to start to be ripped up.

Look, there is a lot of football left, and of those 8 teams to make a Super Bowl after starting the year 0-1 SU, four of them did end up hosting the Lombardi Trophy. Problem with that is they were only two specific franchises ? New England (2003, 2014) and the New York Giants (2007 and 2011).

With quarterback Tom Brady in Tampa Bay this season, all those Bucs futures may have a bit more hope then futures on other 0-1 SU teams ? including my own on the Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC ? but it's still a severe uphill battle against history in that regard.

The funny thing about those four seasons with the Patriots and Giants winning those Super Bowls after starting out 0-1 SU is that all four of those Super Bowls had some wild finishes to them.

New England's two victories in those years came thanks to a tie-breaking FG with 4 seconds left over Carolina, and them picking off Seattle's 1-yard pass in that 2014 shocker. The Giants two wins came over New England and I probably don't need to get into those finishes with the wild catches David Tyree and Mario Manningham made late in those contests.

Needless to say, had we had those four games finished just slightly differently, this trend would be sitting at 100% in that no 0-1 SU team has won the Super Bowl that year.

So how is this actionable?

You can look at the flip side of this and say that 28 of the last 36 teams to be involved in the Super Bowl did so after starting that season 1-0 SU. I'm not going to list all the teams that won this week, but if you are a big believer in history, and like to get down on some futures tickets ? to win conference or Super Bowl ? you probably want to limit your choices to those 16 squads.

The odds on those teams probably took a slight hit (as of now) after starting out with a win, but this is something to keep in mind long down the road. Futures price shopping every week can be done if you keep that list of the 16 teams that started the year 1-0 SU handy.