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Cnotes53

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Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won?t tell you the whole story in most games.

Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Cleveland Browns (-5?) 35, Cincinnati Bengals 30 (44?)

A 24-point second quarter put the Thursday night game on a clear ?over? pace but the Browns were barely past the favorite spread with an eight-point edge at halftime.

Cincinnati seemed to a get huge swing of momentum stuffing the Browns on 4th-and-goal on the opening drive of the 2nd half but rookie QB Joe Burrow would fumble on a sack a few plays later, handing the Browns another red zone chance and this time Cleveland delivered.

Cincinnati would add a field goal to trail by 12 and the defense again delivered with an interception when it looked like Cleveland would add points. Burrow led a 14-play drive to put the Bengals within five with just under six minutes remaining. The underdog cover position was short-lived however as it took Cleveland just two minutes to answer, effectively putting the game away up by 12 at the 3:55 mark.

Burrow impressed on another long drive that included two 4th down conversions, eventually connecting for a touchdown inside the final minute on a 3rd-and-long play to take back the spread result for the underdog.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) 31, Carolina Panthers 17 (47)

The 0-2 Panthers are proving to have a lot of fourth quarter life losing in Week 1 in a back-and-forth final frame and also rallying vs. Tampa Bay after falling behind 21-0. Christian McCaffrey added two touchdowns before getting hurt to cut the score to 21-14 early in the fourth. The Panthers got the ball right back but Teddy Bridgewater had an interception across midfield.

Tampa Bay only added three points off the turnover however and Carolina cut the margin back to seven just after the two-minute warning with its own field goal, which was enough to sit within the underdog spread. The onside kick attempt failed and Leonard Fournette rushed for 46 yards and a score on 1st down, putting the Buccaneers up by 14 and clearing the closing total that opened as high as 48? before sliding to 47.

Those laying the points with the Buccaneers didn?t have an easy viewing the rest of the way as Bridgewater had quick completions of 22 and 14 yards to cross midfield with still more than a minute to go. Carolina eventually reached the Tampa Bay 18 and the game?s final play didn?t quite get there with a 14-yard gain stopped around the 4-yard-line to keep the Panthers from stealing the cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6?) 26, Denver Broncos 21 (40?)

The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime and Denver was down to Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos added 11 points in the third quarter and to stay in the game but the Steelers had a strong start to the fourth, completing a touchdown drive and getting a safety to lead by 12 with about 10 minutes to go. Getting the ball back after the safety, Pittsburgh fumbled on first down however and the Broncos delivered with a Melvin Gordon touchdown about halfway through the final quarter.

Down by five, Denver?s defense held for a quick punt and Driskel appeared poised to deliver a game-winning drive for the Broncos, getting a big completion to the Pittsburgh 23-yard-line that withstood a replay challenge. Facing 4th-and-2 Driskel was sacked to thwart the upset and those on the favorite had a fleeting opportunity for a late cover with James Conner breaking a 59-yard rush to the Denver 10.

Denver only had two timeouts remaining and the Steelers were able to run out the clock, eventually taking a knee at the 6-yard-line.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) 40, Atlanta Falcons 39 (53?)

The fourth quarter didn?t change the spread or total results in this NFC clash but it is worth reminding everyone that the same team that recently lost the Super Bowl with a 28-3 lead was leading 39-24 with five minutes to go in a NFL game and lost.

Those taking Atlanta plus the points watched in horror after the incredible onside kick recovery as the prospect of a Dallas win and cover was back in play as Dallas had a healthy 1:49 to work with down two. After the big 2nd down gain the Cowboys played for the field goal and successfully pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history.

Buffalo Bills (-5?) 31, Miami Dolphins 28 (42)

Buffalo jumped out to a 17-7 lead but Miami took control in the middle of the game, delivering 13 consecutive points on three scoring drives, each of fewer than 50 yards, to take a 20-17 lead with about 10 minutes remaining.

Over two drives surrounding a punt Josh Allen needed only 12 combined plays for two touchdown drives of more than 70 yards as the Bulls were up by 11 with just three minutes remaining.

Miami didn?t even face a 3rd down against a relaxed defense and connected in the final minute to spoil the spread result, getting the two-point conversion for good measure in the three-point final result.

Chicago Bears (-5) 17, New York Giants 13 (42?)

After needing a big comeback in Week 1 the Bears took a 17-0 lead over the Giants at halftime. Even with significant injuries for New York, the Bears weren?t able to coast for a win as four second half drives ended in a pair of interceptions, a punt, and a missed field goal.

New York was down 17-10 before Mitchell Trubisky?s second interception set the Giants up in decent field position. With about 10 minutes remaining Chicago almost put the game away with a pick-6 but it was called back for pass interference. The Giants would stall at the Chicago 19 and kicked a field goal with still more than seven minutes remaining to trail by four.

Chicago had a chance to push the margin back to seven points to go back in position to cover but Cairo Santos missed the field goal try. New York had a great opportunity to steal the win, converting two fourth downs along the way but eventually ended the game on the 10-yard-line as the Bears moved to 2-0 with a second straight narrow escape.

Tennessee Titans (-7?) 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 30 (44?)

The Jaguars trailed 30-17 through three quarters but completed a 75-yard drive early in the fourth and forced a quick three-and-out. Jacksonville went 86 yards to tie the game halfway through the final frame with another big performance from Gardner Minshew.

A pair of punts followed, and getting the ball back in good field position with just over three minutes to go the Titans were able to add three points to go in front, aided greatly with a big 3rd down conversion via penalty.

Minshew was intercepted on a short pass on a 2nd-and-1 play in the final minute as the Titans held on but Jacksonville did enough for a second straight underdog win to start the season.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 35, New England Patriots 30 (45)

The Patriots opened the game with an early "Pick-6 Touchdown" but Russell Wilson rebounded nicely ultimately posting five touchdown passes even though the Seahawks only twice entered the red zone in the game.

Seattle pulled away in the third quarter with back-to-back scores around a Cam Newton interception to lead by 11 but the Patriots answered early in the fourth quarter.

Down five, New England went for two and came up short in a key play relative to the spread outcome. With just over four minutes remaining Seattle seemed to put the game away with a big 3rd down conversion and two plays later a touchdown to lead by 12.

The Patriots answered quickly however and were able to get the ball back after the Seahawks tried to throw deep on 3rd-and-1. The Patriots put together a great final drive but opted not to call their final timeout after a connection to the Seattle 13-yard-line, leaving only 12 seconds on the clock by the time they got the ball snapped.

After Julian Edelman couldn?t haul in a throw to the end zone, the Patriots reached the 1-yard-line on the next play and used the final timeout setting up the expected final play. Newton?s charge to the goal line was blown up as Seattle came away with the win and narrow cover in another entertaining edition between these teams and Hall of Fame coaches.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4) 34, New Orleans Saints 24 (48)

The line on the Monday night game shot downward Monday afternoon but the Saints opened up a 10-0 lead looking to move to 2-0 again considered by many a top NFC contender. Opening its new stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders rallied for a tie score by halftime and took the lead early in the 3rd quarter.

The Saints punted on their first two possessions of the second half while the Raiders lost a fumble to keep the scoring at 41 well into the fourth quarter as the only drama that remained was on the total. The Saints would find the end zone with about four minutes remaining to trail by seven and the scoring hit 48, the closing total but with most sitting with tickets slightly above that with the number gradually sliding from an opening price of 50?.

A pass interference penalty converted a big 3rd down for the Raiders just ahead of the two-minute warning and the Raiders would face a decision up by seven with just over a minute to go on 4th-and-long. They opted for a risky 54-yard field goal attempt and Daniel Carlson delivered to seal the upset, as well as hitting ?over? too.
 

Cnotes53

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Dunkel

Week 3


Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville

Game 301-302
September 24, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.635
Jacksonville
130.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-2 1/2); Over


Sunday September 27

Washington @ Cleveland


Game 471-472
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
123.31
Cleveland
124.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Under

Las Vegas @ New England


Game 461-462
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
124.829
New England
139.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 14 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6); Over

Houston @ Pittsburgh


Game 465-466
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
131.460
Pittsburgh
130.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+4); Under

Tennessee @ Minnesota


Game 469-470
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
138.648
Minnesota
126.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 11 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Atlanta


Game 475-476
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.642
Atlanta
131.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+4); Under

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia


Game 473-474
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
118.375
Philadelphia
129.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 11
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Buffalo


Game 463-464
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
131.708
Buffalo
137.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-2); Over

San Francisco @ NY Giants


Game 467-468
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
131.669
NY Giants
130.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4); Under

NY Jets @ Indianapolis


Game 477-478
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
122.554
Indianapolis
135.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 13
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 10 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-10 1/2); Over

Carolina @ LA Chargers


Game 479-480
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
123.091
LA Chargers
124.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 1 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+7); Under

Tampa Bay @ Denver


Game 483-484
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
137.520
Denver
125.458
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 12
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-6); Over

Dallas @ Seattle


Game 485-486
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.739
Seattle
136.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+5); Under

Detroit @ Arizona


Game 481-482
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
122.855
Arizona
135.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 13
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-5 1/2): Over

Green Bay @ New Orleans


Game 487-488
September 27, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.388
New Orleans
133.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Over


Monday, September 28

Kansas City @ Baltimore


Game 489-490
September 28, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
139.135
Baltimore
150.460
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 11 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Under
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3


Dolphins (0-2) @ Jacksonville (1-1)
? Miami lost its first two games, by 10-3 points.
? Dolphins gave up 417 passing yards to Josh Allen last week.
? Miami is 9-16 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.

? Jaguars scored 57 points in splitting their first two games; they?re scored 7 TD?s on 17 drives.
? J?ville has converted 15-24 3rd down plays this season.
? Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-9 ATS as a home favorite.

? Jaguars are 5-4 in this series, winning last two meetings, 23-20/17-7.
? Dolphins won three of last four visits to Jacksonville.

Raiders (2-0) @ New England (1-1)
? Long travel, short week for Las Vegas, after their Monday night win.
? Raiders scored 34-34 points in winning their first two games; they scored exactly 17 points in all four halves this season.
? Last three years, Raiders are 9-14 ATS as a road underdog.

? Since 2013, Patriots are 16-8 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last 4+ years, New England is 25-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
?Patriots converted 12 of first 22 third down plays.

? Patriots won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
? Raiders lost last three visits here, by 3-7-10 points.
? Silver/Black?s last win in Foxboro was in 1994.

Rams (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
? Rams won first two games, running ball for 153-191 yards, converting 16-29 on 3rd down.
? LA is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
? Rams have allowed four TD?s so far, but none in 2nd half; they outscored first two foes 23-6 after halftime.

? Bills won first two games, scoring 27-31 points, gaining 928 yards.
? Newly acquired WR Diggs caught 16 balls for 239 yards in the two games.
? Buffalo is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

? Home side lost five of last six series games.
? Buffalo won six of last eight series games.
? Rams split their six visits to Orchard Park.

Texans (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
? Texans lost their first two games, giving up 34-33 points.
?Houston converted only 7-19 3rd down plays so far.
? Texans are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

? Steelers won their first two games, scoring 26-26 points.
? Pitt opponents have been in Steeler red zone 7 times, but scored only 22 points.
? Last 3+ years, Pittsburgh is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite.

? Steelers won four of six series games, with three wins by 20+ points.
? Houston lost two of three visits here; the lone win was in 2002.

49ers (1-1) @ NJ Giants (0-2)
? 49ers beat Jets 31-13 on this same field last week; they?re spending this week practicing in West Virginia.
? Last 5+ years, 49ers are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
? 49ers have had numerous injuries; QB Garoppolo i(ankle) is expected to play here.
? NFC West teams are 6-0 ATS outside their division this year.

? Giants lost their first two games, by 10-4 points.
? RB Barkley (knee) is out for year; Giants have been outrushed 276-104.
? Big Blue is 1-11 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog.

? Teams split last four series games.
? 49ers lost three of last four road games in this series- they

Titans (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
? Tennessee won its first two games, by total of five points.
? Titans have scored 44 points in seven trips to the red zone.
? Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.

? Vikings lost their first two games, allowing 43-28 points- they were outscored 37-13 in first half of those games.
? Minnesota lost field position by 14-15 yards; they?re minus-3 in turnovers.
? Last four years, Vikings are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.

? Vikings won six of last seven series games.
? Titans are 1-6 in Minnesota, with lone win in 1992; they were outscored 92-34 in last three visits here.
? Tennessee?s lone win in the Twin Cities was in 1992.

Washington (1-1) @ Cleveland (1-1)
? Washington trailed 17-0/20-0 in their two games.
? Redskins converted only 9-30 third down plays.
? Last 4+ years, Washington is 15-11 ATS as a road underdog.

? Browns split their first two games, allowing 38-30 points (8 TD?s/19 drives).
? Cleveland has been outscored 31-14 in 2nd halves of games.
? Browns are 4-5-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

? Redskins won last three series games, by 3-17-11 points.
? Teams split two games played here; last one was in 2012.

Bengals (0-2) @ Philadelphia (0-2)
? Bengals lost their first two games, by 3-5 points.
? Cincy allowed 370 rushing yards in their first two games.
? Last 3+ years, Bengals are 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.

? Eagles lost their first two games, were outscored 36-3 in 2nd half.
? Philly turned ball over over three times in both games, is -5 in turnovers.
? Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.

? Bengals are 3-0-1 in last four series games, with all three wins by 18+ points.
? Cincy is 5-3 in its visits to Philadelphia.

Bears (2-0) @ Atlanta (0-2)
? Chicago won its first two games, by four points each.
? Bears ran ball for 149-135 yards in their first two games.
? Chicago is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.

? Falcons lost 40-39 in Dallas LW, blowing 29-10 halftime lead.
? Atlanta allowed 38-40 points in first two games (10 TD?s/23 drives).
? Falcons are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

? Chicago is 5-3 in last eight series games; they won three of last five visits here.

Jets (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
? Jets lost their first two games, by 10-18 points- they trailed both games 21-3 at half.
? Gang Green was outgained by 232 yards in their first two games.
? Jets are 8-17-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.

? Colts split their first two games, despite outgaining opponents 799-416.
? Indy has struggled in red zone, scoring 34 points in nine drives inside 20.
? Colts are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

? Jets won four of last five series games, winning three of last four visits here.

Panthers (0-2) @ LA Chargers (1-1)
? Carolina lost its first two games, giving up 34-31 points.
? Panthers lost field position in first two games, by 7-11 yards.
? Carolina is 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.

? Unsure who starts at QB here for Chargers, Taylor/Herbert.
? LA split its first two games, losing in OT to rival Chiefs last week.
? Chargers are 3-9 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

? Carolina won five of six series games, with lone loss in 2009.
? Panthers are 3-0 against the Chargers in California.

Lions (0-2) @ Arizona (2-0)
? Detroit lost its first two games, allowing 27-42 points.
? Lions have been outscored 46-17 in 2nd half of games.
? Detroit is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.

? Cardinals won their first two games, running ball for 180-160 yards.
? Arizona has 20 penalties for 204 yards in two games; that?s a lot.
? Last 5+ years, Cardinals are 8-14 ATS as a home favorite.

? Detroit is 2-0-1 in last three series games; they blew a big lead in LY?s 27-27 tie, when both teams kicked a FG in overtime.
? Lions are 1-8-1 in last ten visits to Arizona, 1-0-1 in last two.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Denver (0-2)
? Tampa Bay split its first two games, scoring 23-31 points.
? Buccaneers are 6-3-3 ATS in last 12 gamest AFC teams.
? Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.

? Denver lost its first two games, by 2-5 points.
? QB Lock is out for two weeks; backup Driskel gets the start; he was 1-7 as a starter for the Bengals/Lions the last couple years.
? Denver is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
? AFC West teams are 5-0-1 ATS outside their division.

? Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning last four.
? Bucs lost four of five visits here, with line win in 1993.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Seattle (2-0)
? Dallas split its first two games, which were decided by total of 4 points.
? Cowboys trailed 20-0 LW; they were -3 in turnovers, lost field position by 17 yards, but they won, recovering an onside kick when they looked like a lost cause.
? Last four years, Dallas is 7-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.

? Seahawks won their first two games, scoring 38-35 points (10 TD?s/20 drives).
? Seattle has run 118 plays; only 16 of them have been on third down.
? Seahawks are 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.

? Seattle won three of last four series games, with loss 24-22 in ?18 playoffs.
? Cowboys lost four of last five visits to Seattle.

Packers (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
? Green Bay won its first two games, scoring 43-42 points (9 TD?s/18 drives)
? Packers ran ball for 417 yards, threw for 593 so far- decent balance.
? Green Bay is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

? Short week for Saints, who lost in Las Vegas Monday night.
? New Orleans converted 12-26 on 3rd down; both their games went over.
? Saints are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.

? Home side won six of last eight series games; Packers lost their last three road games against the Saints, by 15-22-21 points.
? Green Bay won Super Bowl XXXI here, in 1998; their last win against the Saints here was back in 1995.

Chiefs (2-0) @ Baltimore (2-0)
? Chiefs won their first two games, scoring 34-23 points- they rallied from behind to beat the rival Chargers in OT last week.
? KC has converted 14-28 third down plays; they made two 58-yard FG?s last week.
? Last 4+ years, Chiefs are 10-2 ATS as a road underdog.

? Ravens won their first two games, scoring 38-33 points.
? Baltimore has five takeaways, is already +4 in turnovers- they outscored first two opponents 27-6 in 2nd half.
? Ravens are 9-15 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.

? Chiefs won last three series games, by 20-3-5 points.
? KC beat the Ravens 33-28 LY in Week 3; they?ve won four of last five trips to Baltimore.
 
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Dolphins vs. Jaguars Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Another week of NFL action has now arrived, and with this being the only major sport in town in the about a month or so, it won't be long before everyone in the market wonders where the first half of the season went.

It's been an entertaining first two weeks so far with holding calls down and points across the league up. Those are two talking points this week and while I'm never sure on the former, the latter is something to consider in your handicapping.

When stats like how the league wide scoring average is up over 50 points through two weeks get spoken everywhere, it might be time to lean towards flipping the script.

Yes, scoring is well up through these first two weeks, but in the market that means that early numbers where 'over' plays may make a lot of sense are going to get bet up early, and that's on top of the potential for numbers already being shaded a little higher as well. You've really got to like an 'over' for a game if you haven't pulled the trigger on it yet, as numbers are only going to climb as a generalization.

It will be interesting to see if Week 3 brings a few more 'under' tickets to the window, as something's going to give eventually. Maybe it starts with the Thursday nighter down in Jacksonville?

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: TIAA Bank Field
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Line Movements

Spread: Jacksonville -3
Money-Line: Jacksonville -160, Miami +140
Total: 47.5

Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to lift Miami to its first win of the season at Jacksonville on Thursday. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Miami


Overall: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Jacksonville

Overall: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total


Popularized numbers like the league wide scoring average being well up this year is going to have more on an influence on the market from start to finish these next couple of weeks.

Numbers are going to open higher in some instances, others are going to move in a hurry in others. But the later in the week you wait to take these 'overs' is when you are going to be left with the worst of it a lot of the time. This TNF game is case in point.

This total opened up at 44 nearly everywhere, and within 24 hours it was already at 46. There are many examples of the same thing occurring in other games every week right now, and it makes timing your bets a bit easier. If you know you are going to love an 'over' in a game, you'd better look at it early.

A four-point jump from open is something that's got to be respected, but I do believe it's also an easy spot to go the contrarian route and look for scoring to come down. This is still a TNF game on short week for these guys, and yes, Burrow and Mayfield lit it up in this spot a week ago, but I just don't see quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and RyanFitzpatrick putting up a similar performance.

These guys love to dink and dunk the ball down the field and then cough up the ball late in drives. Fitzpatrick is known for trying to force things in when the field shrinks down, and Jacksonville has shown that they'll be very shrewd in picking their spots in when to take shots.

Furthermore, how many sloppy TNF games have we seen in the past where guys/teams just don't have it and it's a 21-10, sloppy, exhibition-like game? There are at least a handful of them on Thursday's every year. Do you really want to trust these two teams of all teams to avoid something like that happening? In by far the worst of the number now?

I sure don't, and in fact I do believe it's an easy look at the 'under' now for this game. I'm not sure Miami's offense is going to be all that good away from home - something that's been the case for them in recent years ? and I'm not sure Jacksonville's defense shouldn't be rated slightly higher at home.

48 is a big number for two teams that came into the season as likely lottery candidates, playing in a notorious 'under' spot on TNF, and the perception of it being an easier 'over' in bumping the number up so quick only has me looking at the 'under.'

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 23, 2018 - Jacksonville 17 at Miami 7, Jaguars -3, Under 39.5
Sep. 20, 2015 - Jacksonville 23 vs. Miami 20, Jaguars +6, Over 42
Oct. 26, 2014 - Miami 27 vs. Jacksonville 13, Dolphins -7, Under 42

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Handicapping the Side


The side saw a big early move too as a line basically at pick'em got to Jacksonville -3 in a hurry. There has been a lot to like about the Jags from their 2-0 ATS record, but they were also catching a full TD in those games.

Catching points is when the Jaguars want to be really strongly considered in my view, because who knows how consistent this young team really is right yet. Isn't this one of those spots where teams like the Jags that were projected to be near the basement this year kind of come back down to earth?

Again, with the best of the number already gone, easy to pass on the Jags side.

Doesn't mean I want any part of Miami though, as they are 1-1 ATS this season with both games essentially being a coin flip on whether or not they sneak in the backdoor.

Week 1 they had their chance with 3rd and 6 from the Patriots 10 in the final two minutes before Fitzpatrick threw an INT. Week 2 saw them get through the backdoor ? after giving it up just prior ? in the final minute of the game to cover the number against the Bills, but who wants any part of that.

Catching just three points as an underdog is the smallest potential backdoor the Dolphins will be working with this year, and if their best games are coming down to coin flip plays late, how could you confidently make a case for them here either.

I guess the notion that the number's the best it's ever been on Miami now at +3 will look slightly appealing to some, but I want nothing to do with sweating out a garbage time drive with the Dolphins late. Nor do I want to bet into the worst of the number with a Jags team that may not be all their2-0 ATS mark projects them out to be.

Easy pass on the side from both perspectives. But Jags probably win.

Key Injuries

Miami


S Clayton Fejedelem: Pec - Doubtful
CB Byron Jones: Groin, Achilles - Out

Jacksonville

WR DJ Chark Jr: Chest - Questionable
K Josh Lambo: Hip - Out
C Brandon Linder: Knee - Out
 

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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at JAC 08:20 PM

MIA +3.0

O 49.0
 

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COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........32-28-1.......53.33%.....+1.50
 

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Cowboys vs. Seahawks Week 3 Odds, Preview
Michael Crosson

The new betting favorite to win the NFL MVP, Russell Wilson (+300) and the Seattle Seahawks will host Mike McCarthy?s Dallas Cowboys in America?s Game of the Week on Fox this Sunday evening at 4:25 p.m. ET.

The paths traveled by Dallas and Seattle in 2020 have not closely resembled each other so far, but has left Sunday?s contest equally important for the two squads as the Seahawks and Cowboys both find themselves tied for a share of their respected NFC division crown.

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Line Movements

The Seahawks opened as a three and a half-point favorite against the Cowboys following victories over the Falcons and Patriots in Weeks 1 and 2, and we have seen that number climb up to Seattle -5 heading into the weekend as the public continues to back Pete Carroll?s team to grab its third consecutive win to start the season.

This contest opened with the highest total on Sunday?s NFL slate at OU 55 points, but the public still felt that was not high enough, as the oddsmakers were forced to bump the ?over-under? up to OU 57 with the majority of early bet tickets coming in on the ?over.?

Spread: Seattle -5
Money-Line: Seattle -230, Dallas +195
Total: 55.5

The Seahawks' offense has clicked through two wins as Seattle welcome in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Dallas

Overall: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Seattle

Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 5, 2019 - Dallas 24 vs. Seattle 22, Seahawks +2.5, Over 43
Sep. 23, 2018 - Seattle 24 vs. Dallas 13, Seahawks -1, Under 40
Dec. 24, 2017 - Seattle 21 at Dallas 12, Seahawks +4.5, Under 47

The last time Dallas and Seattle met up was in Jerry?s World during the Wild Card Round of last year?s playoffs, which resulted in a 24-22 win for Jason Garrett?s Cowboys.

Dak Prescott got his first post-season win under his belt, despite having a relatively mediocre game, completing 22 of 33 passes for 226 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick ? he also ran one in. Michael Gallup was quiet in the contest, but the same cannot be said about Amari Cooper, as the wideout officially made the trade with the Raiders worth it in the playoffs by hauling in seven receptions for 106 yards in the Cowboys? win.

The real difference-maker in last year?s contest though was Seattle?s inability to stop the run, as they allowed Ezekiel Elliott to rumble for 173 total yards and a touchdown for the game. On the other side of things, the Seahawks failed to get anything going on the ground, rushing for just 45 combined yards as a team, aside from a Rashaad Penny 25-yard run.

Last year?s playoff win makes Prescott and Elliott 1-2 SU against the Seahawks for their careers.

Cowboys vs. Seahawks

Handicapping the Side


We actually luck out a little here as Seattle and Dallas are one of the few teams already this season that share a common past opponent in the Atlanta Falcons.

Although it may not have appeared like it thanks to two garbage-time touchdowns from Calvin Ridley, the Seahawks stomped Atlanta in Week 1, leading the game 31-12 in the early-goings of the fourth quarter before finishing the contest with a deceptively close tally of 38-25.

After being pushed around by the Rams in McCarthy?s first game behind the wheel, Cowboys fans everywhere could be found in fits of rage when their team fell behind 20-0 in the first half against Atlanta. The Falcons just fell apart in the second half like they tend to infamously do though, getting outscored by Zeke and company 30-10 in the final two stanzas.

So far this season, Seattle has undoubtedly been the team to beat in the NFC while Dallas should be considered lucky to be knotted up with the Washington Football Team in the division standings at this point and time.

The Cowboys are banged up on the o-line and I just have not seen enough out of Kellen Moore?s offense so far this season to back them against a unit that is running-up 36.5 points per game on defenses this season.

If you are going to pick a side here, please do not waste your money on Dallas.

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total


The Seahawks have cashed ?over? tickets in both of their games so far this season by scoring 38 points against Atlanta and 35 points against the Patriots, respectively. It also does not help that Seattle?s secondary, headed by Jamal Adams, has struggled much more than anticipated out of the gate after acquiring the former-Jets safety this past offseason.

Dallas and Los Angeles had one of the rare Week 1 ?unders? by losing to the Rams 20-17 on opening Sunday, but the ?over-under? was never in doubt in their second game ? combining for almost 40 points in the first half against Atlanta and easily cashing ?over? tickets.

The Cowboys will be without Leighton Vander Esch in this one, and Jaylon Smith has been downright bad so far this year. ?Over 57? is a scary total to bet which is why I am electing to stay away from the ?over-under? here, but if I had to lean in a direction for this game?s total, I would lean with the ?over.?

Key Injuries

Dallas


CB Chidobe Awuzie: Hamstring - Out
DE DeMarcus Lawrence: Knee - Questionable
CB Trevon Diggs: Personal - Questionable
OT Tyron Smith: Neck - Questionable

Seattle

DE Rasheem Green: Neck - Out
CB Neiko Thorpe: Hip - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Questionable
DE Benson Mayowa: Groin - Questionable
OT Cedric Ogbuehi: Pectoral - Questionable

Do not be fooled by Seattle?s lengthy injury report, the players Dallas could be missing on Sunday are much more critical than the players the Seahawks have already lost to the injury bug.

The Cowboys have a top-10 offensive line in the NFL when the whole crew stays healthy, but that quickly falls apart when they begin having absences and are required to move guys around up front.

Keep an eye on Tyron Smith?s status heading into this one, as Dallas will already be struggling to fill La?el Collins? shoes at the tackle spot.
 

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Packers vs. Saints Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

I don't know what it is about Patriots/Seahawks games, but they always come down to the end, and you'd better hope you're on the team that's leading at that stage, because both sides haven't been able to punch it in on the ground from short distance after Newton and the Pats got stuffed last week.

Not sure this week's game will be able to top last week's ending to SNF, but you know an Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees showdown does bring potential for plenty of other interesting fireworks going off late.

Considering Brees has been on the wrong end of plenty of criticism this week about whether or not he's still got ?it? to be a capable starting NFL QB, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Saints respond. And whether or not WR Michael Thomas gets back on the field and what kind of shape his status leaves this line by the time kickoff arrives.

For Green Bay, the Aaron Rodgers FU Tour to the world is looking to continue indoors this week, as he's spent the past two weeks hanging 40 + on two division rivals. People still want to talk about how the organization didn't draft some immediate pass catching help in a pass catching draft for Rodgers, but how about what he's doing with the receiving core he's got already in uniform.

Sometimes that flashy top draft choice isn't all he's cut out to be, and with Rodgers generally always having a good idea about how looks defenses will give him ? shade Davante Adams in coverage and work from there ? he can pinpoint the route he believes is the best first option.

In fact, not having that secondary ?name? out there running routes may actually be working to Green Bay's advantage right now because as long those guys win their individual matchup on each play, someone's going to be wide open with a very little chance of secondary help coming immediately. Two straight weeks of scoring 40+ and it's tough to argue with the results.

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Line Movements

Spread: New Orleans -3
Money-Line: New Orleans -170, Green Bay +150
Total: 51.5

The Saints return home following a loss at Las Vegas as New Orleans is a slight favorite against Green Bay. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Green Bay


Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U

New Orleans

Overall: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total


The funny thing about this game from a total perspective is that having Rodgers and the Packers off back-to-back 40+ efforts, coming into a fast, indoor track where noise is not going to be a problem at all, all the prevailing thoughts will be here will be on the 'over'.

And yet, from a market perspective approach, knowing that suggests that letting this total keep climbing and then going 'low' with the 'under' on it makes quite a bit of sense too. After all, questions about whether or not Brees and the Saints still got it are lingering out in the open now, and what if the can't score the football.

Going against the market and looking low is going to be the position I end up siding with more often than not, but I want no problem of an 'under' with Rodgers indoors here. Even as I do generally believe older QB's like Brees and Brady get overrated late in their careers because of name status and not the facts that they are early 40's QB's out there playing a young man's game, I'm not ready to completely write off Brees and the Saints just yet.

A return by Thomas could be all the Saints need to get going again, and it's because it operates in that similar fashion that Adams does for Green Bay. He gives Brees the knowledge of the defense likely shading things his way more often than not, and then the ability to work off of that and find the open man.

Remember, New Orleans still put up 24 points without the services of Thomas last week, and what's kind of gotten lost in Green Bay's 2-0 start and all the Rodgers love is the fact that the Packers defense has still allowed an average 27.5 points per game this year. Only two games yes, but Brees is by far the best QB of the bunch to take a crack at this Packers defense this year as well.

Long winded way of making this total an easy one to pass on. No reason to go contrarian for contrarian sake and sweat an 'under' for the full 60 minutes, and no reason to jump on with the masses simply wanting action and cursing yourself for not being disciplined enough to stay away when this game is 17-13 going into the 4th quarter and you need three TD's plus.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 22, 2017 - New Orleans 26 at Green Bay 17, Saints -3.5, Under 45.5
Oct. 26, 2014 - New Orleans 44 vs. Green Bay 23, Saints -2, Over 55
Sep. 30, 2012 - Green Bay 28 vs. New Orleans 27, Saints +7.5, Over 54

Packers vs. Saints

Handicapping the Side


It's been nothing but Packers money since this line came out, as this chatter about whether Brees is done or not has really started to take root in the market. I view it as he's on his way to being done, and the market correction we seem to see coming in on the Saints now is probably where they should have started being a little overrated to begin with.

Either way, it's still just three weeks in and it's no time to panic. The Saints are 1-1 SU and lost when they didn't have their best weapon on offense. Things should be alright Saints fans.

But with how good the Packers have looked through two weeks, early support on their side was always going to show up regardless of what the Saints did on MNF. A line that did open as high as -6 in spots was about the best example out there of how the Saints were overrated to begin with and it appear the market has caught up quickly with them. All well and good.

Yet, a move from the -6 range to the -3 range is a little too large not to start seriously considering the Saints side now. New Orleans has reached that ?buy low? option now where there is minimal belief in this team right now ? especially from the minimal belief from bettors that they (bettors) had this team pegged correctly before the season (a supposed legitimate contender) and that makes said team difficult to cap.

So most moves if they come, are going to be against teams in those spots. The market quickly took advantage of what opened up as a bad number, but the money that has continued to push it down further is worth questioning.

Green Bay has looked spectacular through two weeks, but outside of falling down early to Detroit, what has really gone wrong for them? How often do NFL teams continue to look great and break great for weeks in a row?

Not saying it doesn't happen, but any Green Bay ATS money now has missed the boat (even if it wins), and betting into the worst of the number on a team that's been able to gloss over some concerns on defense because of their spectacular play on offense is not a handicapping practice I want to routinely get into.

The Saints have covered the number in each of their last four tries to do so after failing to cover the spread the week before, and with Brees hearing all the critics out there and Rodgers hearing nothing but praise, maybe it's the longstanding Saints QB who decides to kick off his own FU Tour this week with a vintage performance to knock off a quality foe like the Packers.

At these current prices, backing a Saints team that's become slightly abandoned by the market this week is the only way I can look.

Key Injuries

Green Bay


C Corey Linsley: Thumb - Questionable
WR Davante Adams: Hamstring - Questionable
T Billy Turner: Knee - Questionable
LB Randy Ramsey: Groin - Questionable
TE Josiah Deguara: Ankle - Questionable
DT Kenny Clark: Groin - Questionable

New Orleans

WR Michael Thomas: Ankle - Out
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Questionable
 

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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LAR at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -1.5
U 46.5

+500 +500

CIN at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -6.0
O 46.5

+500 +500

HOU at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -3.5
U 46.5

+500 +500

CHI at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL -2.5
O 46.0

+500 +500

TEN at MIN 01:00 PM
TEN -3.0
O 49.5

+500 +500

LV at NE 01:00 PM
NE -7.0
O 47.0

+500 +500

SF at NYG 01:00 PM
SF -3.0
U 44.0

+500 +500

WAS at CLE 01:00 PM
WAS +7.5
O 45.0

+500 +500
 

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LATE GAMES:

NYJ at IND 04:05 PM
NYJ +12.5
O 44.0

+500 +500

CAR at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -6.0
O 43.5

+500 +500

DAL at SEA 04:25 PM
DAL +5.5
U 56.5

+500 +500

TB at DEN 04:25 PM
TB -5.5
U 42.5

+500 +500

DET at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI -5.0
O 55.5

+500 +500
 

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COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........43-46-1.......48.31%.....-37.00
 
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Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

New England 36, Raiders 20
? Raiders lost three fumbles (-2 in TO?s) converted 3-9 on third down.
? Las Vegas has given up 32 ppg so far this season.
? Last three years, Raiders are 9-15 ATS as a road underdog.

? New England ran ball for 250 yards; Michel ran 9 times for 117 yards.
? Since 2013, Patriots are 17-8 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last 4+ years, New England is 26-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Buffalo 35, Rams 32
? Rams were down 28-3, rallied to take lead, but lost on a TD with 0:15 left.
? LA is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
? Rams have run ball for 153-191-167 yards, converting 22-39 on 3rd down.

? Buffalo?s first five drives: 36 plays, 251 yards, 28 points.
? Bills converted a 3rd-and-22 on the game-winning drive.
? Bills won first three games, scoring 27-31-35 points, gaining 1,303 yards.
? Buffalo?s coaches have done very well developing QB Allen?s skills.

Pittsburgh 28, Texans 21
? Texans in first half: six drives- three 3/outs. 3 touchdowns.
? Houston in 2nd half: 17 plays, 41 yards, 2 first downs, 0 points.
? Texans lost their first two games, giving up 34-33-28 points.

? Steelers won their first three games, scoring 26-26-28 points.
? Pitt outgained Houston 387-260, ran ball for 169 yards.
? Steelers? last seven drives of game: 60 plays, 349 yards, 21 first downs, 25 points.

49ers 36, NJ Giants 9
? 49ers sweep their New Jersey road trip, beating Jets/Giants in consecutive weeks.
? 49ers had eight drives; four TD?s, three FG?s, one missed FG.
? NFC West teams are 8-2 ATS outside their division this year.

? Giants lost their first three games, by 10-4-27 points.
? Giants have been outrushed 369-170 this season.
? Big Blue is 1-12 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog.

Titans 31, Minnesota 30
? Tennessee won its first three games, by total of six points.
? Gostkowski kicked six field goals; he made 54, 55-yard FG?s in final 6:31 for the win.
?Tannehill threw for 321 yards; no Titan caught more than five passes.

? Vikings lost their first three games, allowing 43-28-31 points.
? Minnesota lost field position by 14-15-11 yards; they?re minus-5 in turnovers.
? Last 4+ years, Vikings are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Cleveland 34, Washington 20

? Washington trailed 17-0/20-0 in their two games; they trailed 17-7 at half here.
? Washington rallied to lead 20-17 after third quarter, was outscored 17-0 in 4th quarter.
? Redskins turned ball over four times, averaged only 5.2 yards/pass attempt.

? Cleveland?s first three drives: 25 plays, 85 yards, no points.
? Cleveland?s last nine drives: 52 plays, 229 yards, 34 points.
? Chubb ran 19 times for 108 yards, two TD?s.

Bengals 23, Philadelphia 23
? Bengals are 0-2-1; their games were decided by total of 8 points.
? Cincy allowed 545 rushing yards in their first three games.
? Last 3+ years, Bengals are 16-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.

? Eagles are 0-2-1 in first three games, were outscored 49-13 in 2nd half.
? Philly turned ball over eight times in three games, is -7 in turnovers.
? Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bears 30, Atlanta 26
? Chicago won its first three games, by four points each.
? Foles replaced Trubisky at QB in 3rd quarter, went 16-29 for 188 yards, three TD?s
? Bears? first 10 drives: 59 plays, 268 yards, 10 points.
? Bears? last three drives: 17 plays, 161 yards, 20 points.

? Atlanta led this game 26-10 with 7:00 left.
? Falcons lost 40-39 in Dallas LW, blowing 29-10 halftime lead- how many games like this do they have to lose before they fire the coach?
? Falcons are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

Indianapolis 36, Jets 7
? Jets lost first three games, by 10-18-29 points- they were outscored 59-13 in first half.
? Jets? offense was outscored 16-7 by the Colts? defense in this game.
? Jets are 8-18-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.

? Colts outgained their first three opponents by an average of 384-228/game.
? Indy had a 16-yard advantage in starting field position, not counting the two pick-6?s.
? Colts are 11-6-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.

Panthers 21, LA Chargers 16
? Carolina despite scoring only one TD- they kicked five field goals.
? Panthers won field position by 13 yards in this game; they were +4 in turnovers.
? Carolina is 4-0 against the Chargers in California.

? Chargers outgained Carolina 436-302, but turned ball over four times.
? LA lost its first two games at SoFi Stadium, by total of 8 points.
? Chargers are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

Lions 26, Arizona 23
? Detroit was +3 in turnovers, won field position by 17 yards.
? NFL teams that were +2 or better or turnovers are 9-0 this week.
? Detroit is 2-0-1 in its last three visits to the desert.

? Arizona had only three plays of 20+ yards; they had 11 in first two games.
? Last 5+ years, Cardinals are 8-15 ATS as a home favorite.
? DeAndre Hopkins caught 10 balls for 137 yards, but no TD?s.

Buccaneers 28, Denver 10
? Tampa Bay held Denver to 226 yards, was +2 in turnovers.
? Buccaneers are 7-3-3 ATS in last 13 gamest AFC teams.
? Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite.

? Denver lost its first three games, by 2-5-18 points.
? Backup QB Driskel got the start; he is now 1-8 as an NFL starter. 3rd-stringer Rypien replaced him, was 8-9 for 53 yards, with an INT.
? McManus did make a 56-yard field goal for the Broncos.

Seattle 38, Cowboys 31
? Dallas gave up 39-38 points in splitting its last two games.
? Cowboys threw ball for 461 yards, outgained Seattle by 110 yards, but turned ball over three times (-2)
? Dallas missed two PAT?s and a 2-point conversion.

? Seahawks won their first three games, scoring 38-35-38 points (15 TD?s/33 drives).
? Seattle has run 188 plays; only 29 of them have been on third down.
? Seahawks won four of last five series games,.

Packers 37, New Orleans 30
? Green Bay won its first three games, scoring 43-42-37 points (13 TD?s/27 drives)
? Packers scored on seven of nine drives in this game (4 TD?s, 3 FG?s)
? Lazard caught six passes for 146 yards, including a 72-yard TD.

? Kamara caught 13 passes for 138 yards, ran ball 12 times for 58 yards.
? Over is 3-0 in New Orleans games this season.
? Saints are 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.
 
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Monday?s 6-pack
Playoff matchup/odds:


Dodgers (-300) vs Brewers (+240)
Braves (-125) vs Reds (+105)
Cubs (-190) vs Marlins (+160)
Padres (-175) vs Cardinals (+145)

Rays (-210) vs Blue Jays (+170)
A?s (-135) vs White Sox (+110)
Twins (-120) vs Astros (+100)
Indians (+110) vs Yankees (-135)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 203,481
Please wear a mask when you go out.


Quote of the Day
?I need to be the same guy on our best days and on our worst days. Anything past that does not help the team. All I can focus on is us finishing better. That?s where my focus needs to be.?
Falcons coach Dan Quinn

Monday?s quiz
Of the 32 starting QB?s in the NFL, how many played college football in the Pac-12?

Sunday?s quiz
Marv Levy is known for winning four AFC titles in Buffalo; he also coached the Chiefs, before he coached in Buffalo.

Saturday?s quiz
Kyle Shanahan is the only current NFL head coach whose father was also an NFL head coach. Sean McVay?s grandfather was once coach of the Giants.
 

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Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

attachment.php


National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-13-1
Against the Spread 25-22

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 25-21-1
Against the Spread 24-23

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-18-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Panthers (+6, ML +240) at Chargers, 21-16
Lions (+5.5, ML +200) at Cardinals, 26-23
Packers (+3, ML +145) at Saints, 37-30

The largest favorites to cover

Colts (-11.5) vs. Jets, 36-7
Browns (-7) vs. Washington, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Raiders, 36-20
Buccaneers (-6) at Broncos, 28-10
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Cowboys, 38-31

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an under ticket in the Cincinnati Bengals-Philadelphia Eagles battle, congrats. If you were holding an over ticket, my condolences.

The Bengals were leading 23-16 before QB Carson Wentz desperately scrambled for the right corner of the end zone, diving for the pylon with 21 seconds left in regulation to tie the game 23-23. Over bettors everywhere likely said bad words. I, personally, was holding a Bengals +5 ticket, so all of a sudden my smile disappeared, as a potential touchdown in overtime by Philadelphia would sink me after I'd been on the correct side most of the day. Thankfully that scenario didn't play out.

Anyway, neither team did much of anything in the overtime session, never really threatening to score. The Eagles did drive down the field late, and PK Jake Elliott was about to trot out for the 59-yard field goal to win it. However, a false start penalty caused the Eagles to back it up five yards and head coach Doug Pederson elected to punt the ball away and accept the tie.

Oddly enough, these teams who meet every four years have played to a tie in two of the previous four meetings. Remember when Donovan McNabb didn't know that overtime ended in a tie? That was a game on Nov. 16, 2008 in Cincinnati.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week -- Part 2

The Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) were leading 26-10 heading to the fourth quarter over the Chicago Bears. It looked like Atlanta was going to avenge last week's disgusting collapse on the road against the Dallas Cowboys when they blew a 39-24 lead to fall 40-39. The Week 3 Falcons told the Week 2 Falcons, hold my beer. They allowed 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter on their home field, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose consecutive games when leading by 15 or more points in the final quarter. If you plan to bet the Falcons in the future, make sure to play the opponent on the second-half or live betting in the fourth quarter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Denver Broncos (42.5) game, one which saw future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady squaring off against backup QB Jeff Driskel, with QB Drew Lock sidelined due to injury. The game looked like it was going to be a slam-dunk over, as the Bucs led 23-10 at halftime. Over bettors rejoiced. Then we saw a total of five points in the second half, including a scoreless fourth quarter. Ouch.

The second-lowest total (43.5) was in both the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants game and the battle between the Carolina Panthers-Los Angeles Chargers. The 49ers led the Giants 29-9 late in the fourth quarter before RB Jeff Wilson Jr. punched one in from two yards out to push the total just over, 36-9.

The Panthers surprised the Chargers in a field-goal fest. The Panthers settled for a total of five field goals, including four on trips to the red zone. The game featured just three touchdowns, and only one team posted a double-digit point total (Panthers, 12) in a single quarter.

The highest total on the board Sunday didn't disappoint. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks (57) saw the line rise from 55.5 to 57 during the week. It could have gone way higher. The teams were tied 9-9 after the first quarter, and Seattle led 23-15 at halftime. The scoring continued in the second half, as the Seahawks won 38-31, hanging on to the end similar to their Week 2 SNF win. The teams combined for at least 14 points in every quarter in this one.

The first two primetime games saw the total go 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (55) pending. The Miami Dolphins routed their Sunshine State neighbors, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-13. The over was on pace at halftime, with a total of 28 points on the board, but a low-scoring second half send under bettors to the window with a win. The anticipated shootout between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints (52) lived up to the hype despite the fact both WRs Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were sidelined for their respective teams.

So far this season the over is 5-4 (55.5%) across nine primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


The Broncos slipped to 0-3 when they lost to the Bucs in Week 3. Driskel, the replacement for the injured Lock, was benched in the fourth quarter in favor of QB Brett Rypien, who was just recalled from the practice squad Saturday. Ouch. Jets QB Sam Darnold, meanwhile, had a pair of pick-sixes in a loss to Indianapolis. The offensive play in this Thursday night battle might be so bad that the opening total of 40 might be a bit high.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have scored 35 or more points in each of their three victories, all over results. This will be the second of their five trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season. Seattle won 38-25 in Week 1 as a pick 'em on a total of 49.5. The Dolphins have gotten a couple of extra days to prepare for the Seahawks after topping the Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field last Thursday. That might not be the only advantage the Dolphins face, as they also have the advantage of the heat and humidity of South Florida, a 10 am PT kickoff time for the Seahawks and, of course, the high travel for Seattle.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Patriots square off with the defending champions, who have had a brutal schedule to date. The Chiefs have already faced playoff teams Houston, Baltimore and now New England in three of the first four games, and they had a difficult overtime win on the road against the Chargers in Week 2. The Patriots have a highly-anticipated game for the second time in three weeks. They came up just short in a Week 2 Sunday Night Football battle in Seattle, losing 35-30 as QB Cam Newton was stuffed at the goal line at the gun to end the game. That's how close they are to being 3-0 SU.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The collapsing Falcons take a trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night, getting an extra day to watch the excruciating film from their loss to the Bears. There are a lot of people who feel head coach Dan Quinn could be out of a job soon after his team made NFL history with the two big blown fourth-quarter leads. The Packers are probably the absolute worst opponent for Atlanta to face in Week 4, as they lead the NFL with 40.7 points per game, hitting the over in all three of their outings. In fact, Green Bay games have seen the over hit by at least 12 points in each of the three outings.
 

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Chiefs vs. Ravens Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The AFC Championship game that was ?supposed? to happen in the 2019-20 playoffs gets to be played nine months later on MNF, as the defending champs from Kansas City travel to Baltimore.

Remember, it was the Ravens who were the #1 seed in the AFC last year and slipped up vs Tennessee in the Divisional round to not give the world the Baltimore/KC AFC Championship everyone was expecting.

There is a lot less at stake in this actual meeting then there would have been had last year's playoffs played out differently for Baltimore, but that may actually be a good thing for Chiefs backers here.

Three of the last four times the defending champs had a Conference Championship rematch game in the regular season the following year they lost those games outright. Not specifically applicable here, but both organizations know that they'll have to likely overcome this particular foe to get where they ultimately want to go this season, and it would not be shocking to see a big time playoff feel to this game as well.

Betting Resources

Week 3 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Location: Baltimore, MD
Date: Monday, Sept. 28, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

Spread: Ravens -3.5
Money-Line: Ravens -185, Chiefs +165
Total: 54


The Baltimore Ravens have started the season 2-0 and they're listed as favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday. (AP)

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City


Overall: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U

Baltimore

Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U

Over vs. Under

Handicapping the Total


If we were to continue down the path of treating this game to something of a fictional AFC Championship rematch game, then it's interesting to note that in those four games that the reigning champs returned to face the team they beat to get there, the 'under' has cashed every single time.

It's not going to specifically apply this year with the Chiefs and Titans not on the dance card together, but treating it in a similar light down this brainstorming path does make quite a bit of sense.

Because when you really think about the game, sure, both QB's are going to get all the accolades and deservedly so, but because of their skills, both teams should essentially come in with a similar mindset from a strategical point of view; limit the time said opposing quarterback is on the field and can hurt them.

That means run the ball, shorten the game, and be comfortable with it because in the end, both sides are plenty comfortable with asking their guy to make that quick scoring drive late if need be. The talent's definitely there for either side to pull it off.

Both defenses are going to want to make sure they keep everything in front of them as much as possible, and that leaves easy running lanes open as well as plenty of space in the flat to work the short game. Again, two things both offenses are plenty comfortable in executing because of the belief it will eventually open up things deep.

With all the talk being about the explosiveness of these offenses, the stronger perception is already going to be siding with the 'over' in this game and there might not be a number that's too high for some just looking to get action down on a high profile MNF game.

The contrarian angle here was always going to be the 'under', and when thought about on top of all those other potential terms laid out in regards to more run plays, leading to longer drives etc, I do believe the 'under' is the only way to look here.

Yes it's the scarier play to pull the trigger on in a contest between the last two league MVP's, but all of that is already part of the number that currently sits out there in the market. But the Ravens defense has held both of their opponents to 16 or fewer points in two games this year, and KC's defensive unit hasn't allowed more than 20 points against in two games. Points easily lost or cast aside in the eye popping headlines constantly created about the QB's.

KC's offense has recently shown that getting into high gear away from home can be tough for them with a 0-4 O/U run going on the road, and the Ravens are on a 1-5 O/U run themselves as a home favorite.

It's a play that's never going to be popular, but that doesn't mean it can't hit. It's not like a 27-24 game between these two can't live up to all the hype it's getting right?

Head-to-Head History

Sept. 22, 2019 - Kansas City 33 vs. Baltimore 28, Chiefs -4.5, Over 52.5
Dec. 9, 2018 - (OT) Kansas City 27 vs. Baltimore 24, Chiefs -6.5, Over 48.5

Handicapping the Side

If this game does indeed live up to half the expectation that's getting thrust upon it, it's going to be a pretty easy game to pass on action on the side and simply take in as a football fan.

There is very little that separates these two teams on paper, and when they meet you hope that they both execute at a high level and let the chips fall where they may.

If forced to make a selection here, I'd end up on the Chiefs only because the line dictates you should with that hook at +3.5, a number that's been settled in all week.

Asking yourself why it hasn't come back down to +3 if most are going to take the hook from a simple numbers standpoint brings even more legitimate concerns as to why staying off the side is quite easy to do.

Taking that hook at +3.5, but when Baltimore appears plenty attractive from a money line angle, there is just little reason to force things.

Key Injuries

Kansas City


LB Dorian O'Daniel: Knee, Ankle - Questionable
CB Charvarius Ward: Hand - Questionable
WR Sammy Watkins: Concussion, Neck - Questionable

Baltimore

G D.J. Fluker: Shoulder - Questionable
S Anthony Levine Sr.: Abdomen - Questionable
DT Justin Madubuike: Knee - Questionable
WR Chris Moore: Finger - Questionable
CB Tavon Young: Knee - Out
 

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SEEMS EVERYONE IS ON THE RAVENS WHICH USUALLY MEANS YOU KNOW WHAT BUT I THINK THIS IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO..


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


KC at BAL 08:15 PM

BAL -3.5

U 54.5
 

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COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........44-47-1.......48.35%.....-37.50
 

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NFL odds Week 4: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 3 is in the books, NFL Week 4 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups are a couple of AFC clashes: the New England Patriots visit the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Las Vegas Raiders host the unbeaten Buffalo Bills.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 4 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 4 odds

These are the current NFL Week 4 odds, as of September 27.

attachment.php


Broncos at Jets odds

Opening line

Jets +2.5, Over/Under 40

Why the line moved
Denver very likely won't have QB Drew Lock, and definitely won't have standout wideout Courtland Sutton and star linebacker Von Miller, both lost for the season. Yet the Broncos opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, which says a lot about the Jets in this battle of winless teams. There was no line movement Sunday night.


Colts at Bears odds

Opening line

Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Bears are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), but SuperBook oddsmakers were more impressed with the 2-1 SU and ATS Colts. And apparently, early bettors were, too, as this line moved to Colts -3 Sunday night.


Saints at Lions odds

Opening line

Lions +5.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
There was no line movement Sunday night at The SuperBook before this game came off the board at kickoff of the Packers-Saints contest. Saints-Lions will go back up Monday morning.


Cardinals at Panthers odds

Opening line

Panthers +4.5, Over/Under 52.5

Why the line moved
After the Cardinals' unexpected home loss to the Lions and the Panthers' surprising road upset of the Chargers, early bettors seemed to think 4.5 points was too many for visiting Arizona in Week 4. This line dipped to Cardinals -3.5 Sunday night at The SuperBook.


Jaguars at Bengals odds

Opening line

Bengals -3, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved
Jacksonville looked awful in a 31-13 Thursday night home loss to Miami, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals scratched out a 23-23 tie as 5.5-point underdogs at Philadelphia. So The SuperBook gave the Bengals a 3-point nod, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Browns at Cowboys odds

Opening line

Cowboys -4.5, Over/Under 56

Why the line moved
Cleveland (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has a better record than Dallas (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS), but Cleveland's two wins were at home over Cincinnati and Washington, while Dallas' two losses were on the road against the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. The SuperBook opened at Cowboys -4.5 and moved to -5 Sunday night.


Vikings at Texans odds

Opening line

Texans -4, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
In a battle of winless teams, The SuperBook opened Houston -4 against Minnesota, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

"Talk about a must-win spot for the Texans. They?ll be desperate after falling to 0-3 on Sunday. They?ve played a brutal schedule," Murray said Sunday night, noting Houston's first three weeks were at Kansas City, vs. Baltimore and at Pittsburgh. "The Vikings finally showed some life today. I still don?t really know what to make of them."

Minnesota lost to Tennessee 31-30 Sunday, giving up a late field goal.


Seahawks at Dolphins odds

Opening line

Dolphins +7, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Seattle is 3-0 SU and ATS, putting both those marks on the line in a cross-country trek in Week 4. The SuperBook didn't move Sunday night off the opener of Seahawks -7.


Chargers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line

Buccaneers -6.5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and Tampa Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last two, and after the Chargers laid an egg against the Panthers, early bettors apparently put some early dollars on the Buccaneers. The SuperBook opened Tampa -6.5 and moved to -7 Sunday night.


Steelers at Titans odds

Opening line

Titans -1.5, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Tennessee opened -1.5 at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

"Both teams come in to this matchup at 3-0," Murray said. "The Steelers have been impressive, while the Titans seem to just barely squeak by every week. I'm thinking the public will look to back Pittsburgh here."


Ravens at Washington odds

Opening line

Washington +13.5, Over/Under 52

Why the line moved
No surprise that The SuperBook opened this game with a nearly two-touchdown spread. But nobody was biting Sunday night, and the Ravens remained -13.5.


Giants at Rams odds

Opening line

Rams -11, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved
Los Angeles (2-1 SU and ATS) rallied from a 21-3 deficit at Buffalo and nearly pulled out the win, falling 35-32 on a last-minute Bills TD. New York (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) had a great opportunity at home in Week 3, going off as a 3-point pup against a 49ers outfit in need of a M*A*S*H unit. Yet the Giants got boatraced 36-9. So The SuperBook felt Rams -11 was about right Sunday night, and in fact, the line later went to -11.5.


Patriots at Chiefs odds

Opening line

Chiefs -7, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
"We opened this game Chiefs -7. We discussed using -7.5, but we?ve noticed sharps betting against the Chiefs every week this season ? with varying results so far," Murray said. "I expect good two-way handle here, with the Chiefs included in a lot of moneyline parlays, especially if they get by Baltimore on Monday Night Football."


Bills at Raiders odds

Opening line

Raiders +2.5, Over/Under 52.5

Why the line moved
The spread didn't move early, but the price did, with Buffalo going from -2.5 to -2.5 (-120). Murray has high expectations for betting on this Sunday matchup.

"This could end up being the monster-handle game of the week," Murray said. "The Bills come in 3-0, and Josh Allen is playing at a Pro Bowl level. I didn't expect to be saying that three weeks ago. The Raiders were in a terrible spot Sunday against the Patriots, and they wore down in the second half, but we still think they?re a solid team. I expect good two-way action here."


Eagles at 49ers odds

Opening line

49ers -5.5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) could return in Week 4, and early bettors might be thinking just that, as this line moved to Niners -6 Sunday night.


Falcons at Packers odds

Opening line

Packers -6.5, Over/Under 58

Why the line moved
This line went up before Sunday night's Packers-Saints game, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the line was taken off the board once Packers-Saints kicked off.

"I don?t even have a joke about coach Dan Quinn and the Falcons here. It?s like they?re trying to choke away these games," Murray said, alluding to Atlanta blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in two consecutive games. "The Packers will finish off the majority of the moneyline parlays that survive next Sunday."
 

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Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

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National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-13-1
Against the Spread 25-22

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 25-21-1
Against the Spread 24-23

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-18-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Panthers (+6, ML +240) at Chargers, 21-16
Lions (+5.5, ML +200) at Cardinals, 26-23
Packers (+3, ML +145) at Saints, 37-30

The largest favorites to cover

Colts (-11.5) vs. Jets, 36-7
Browns (-7) vs. Washington, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Raiders, 36-20
Buccaneers (-6) at Broncos, 28-10
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Cowboys, 38-31

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an under ticket in the Cincinnati Bengals-Philadelphia Eagles battle, congrats. If you were holding an over ticket, my condolences.

The Bengals were leading 23-16 before QB Carson Wentz desperately scrambled for the right corner of the end zone, diving for the pylon with 21 seconds left in regulation to tie the game 23-23. Over bettors everywhere likely said bad words. I, personally, was holding a Bengals +5 ticket, so all of a sudden my smile disappeared, as a potential touchdown in overtime by Philadelphia would sink me after I'd been on the correct side most of the day. Thankfully that scenario didn't play out.

Anyway, neither team did much of anything in the overtime session, never really threatening to score. The Eagles did drive down the field late, and PK Jake Elliott was about to trot out for the 59-yard field goal to win it. However, a false start penalty caused the Eagles to back it up five yards and head coach Doug Pederson elected to punt the ball away and accept the tie.

Oddly enough, these teams who meet every four years have played to a tie in two of the previous four meetings. Remember when Donovan McNabb didn't know that overtime ended in a tie? That was a game on Nov. 16, 2008 in Cincinnati.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week -- Part 2

The Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) were leading 26-10 heading to the fourth quarter over the Chicago Bears. It looked like Atlanta was going to avenge last week's disgusting collapse on the road against the Dallas Cowboys when they blew a 39-24 lead to fall 40-39. The Week 3 Falcons told the Week 2 Falcons, hold my beer. They allowed 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter on their home field, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose consecutive games when leading by 15 or more points in the final quarter. If you plan to bet the Falcons in the future, make sure to play the opponent on the second-half or live betting in the fourth quarter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Denver Broncos (42.5) game, one which saw future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady squaring off against backup QB Jeff Driskel, with QB Drew Lock sidelined due to injury. The game looked like it was going to be a slam-dunk over, as the Bucs led 23-10 at halftime. Over bettors rejoiced. Then we saw a total of five points in the second half, including a scoreless fourth quarter. Ouch.

The second-lowest total (43.5) was in both the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants game and the battle between the Carolina Panthers-Los Angeles Chargers. The 49ers led the Giants 29-9 late in the fourth quarter before RB Jeff Wilson Jr. punched one in from two yards out to push the total just over, 36-9.

The Panthers surprised the Chargers in a field-goal fest. The Panthers settled for a total of five field goals, including four on trips to the red zone. The game featured just three touchdowns, and only one team posted a double-digit point total (Panthers, 12) in a single quarter.

The highest total on the board Sunday didn't disappoint. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks (57) saw the line rise from 55.5 to 57 during the week. It could have gone way higher. The teams were tied 9-9 after the first quarter, and Seattle led 23-15 at halftime. The scoring continued in the second half, as the Seahawks won 38-31, hanging on to the end similar to their Week 2 SNF win. The teams combined for at least 14 points in every quarter in this one.

The first two primetime games saw the total go 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (55) pending. The Miami Dolphins routed their Sunshine State neighbors, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-13. The over was on pace at halftime, with a total of 28 points on the board, but a low-scoring second half send under bettors to the window with a win. The anticipated shootout between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints (52) lived up to the hype despite the fact both WRs Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were sidelined for their respective teams.

So far this season the over is 5-4 (55.5%) across nine primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


The Broncos slipped to 0-3 when they lost to the Bucs in Week 3. Driskel, the replacement for the injured Lock, was benched in the fourth quarter in favor of QB Brett Rypien, who was just recalled from the practice squad Saturday. Ouch. Jets QB Sam Darnold, meanwhile, had a pair of pick-sixes in a loss to Indianapolis. The offensive play in this Thursday night battle might be so bad that the opening total of 40 might be a bit high.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have scored 35 or more points in each of their three victories, all over results. This will be the second of their five trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season. Seattle won 38-25 in Week 1 as a pick 'em on a total of 49.5. The Dolphins have gotten a couple of extra days to prepare for the Seahawks after topping the Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field last Thursday. That might not be the only advantage the Dolphins face, as they also have the advantage of the heat and humidity of South Florida, a 10 am PT kickoff time for the Seahawks and, of course, the high travel for Seattle.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Patriots square off with the defending champions, who have had a brutal schedule to date. The Chiefs have already faced playoff teams Houston, Baltimore and now New England in three of the first four games, and they had a difficult overtime win on the road against the Chargers in Week 2. The Patriots have a highly-anticipated game for the second time in three weeks. They came up just short in a Week 2 Sunday Night Football battle in Seattle, losing 35-30 as QB Cam Newton was stuffed at the goal line at the gun to end the game. That's how close they are to being 3-0 SU.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The collapsing Falcons take a trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night, getting an extra day to watch the excruciating film from their loss to the Bears. There are a lot of people who feel head coach Dan Quinn could be out of a job soon after his team made NFL history with the two big blown fourth-quarter leads. The Packers are probably the absolute worst opponent for Atlanta to face in Week 4, as they lead the NFL with 40.7 points per game, hitting the over in all three of their outings. In fact, Green Bay games have seen the over hit by at least 12 points in each of the three outings.
 
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