CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/26/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/23/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/22/2020 15-8-0 65.22% +3100 Detail
11/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........52-55-1.....48.59%....-43.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack
Over/under win totals for NBA teams (72-game season):
47.5? Lakers
46.5? Clippers, Boston
45.5? Brooklyn
44.5? Denver, Miami, Philadelphia
42.5? Dallas
41.5? Toronto, Utah

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 261,136
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Tweet of the Day
?You know, in spite of what America and the rest of the world is experiencing right now, there are many reasons to be thankful. There are more and more people extending helpful hands to do a kindness to their neighbors, and that?s a good thing.?
The late Alex Trebek, in a filmed message

Friday?s quiz
Who was the Washington Redskins? coach, last time they won a playoff game?

Thursday?s quiz
The shot clock came to college basketball for the 1985-86 season.

Wednesday?s quiz
Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason were the Bengals? QB?s in their two Super Bowls.

************************

Friday?s Den: Doing some thinking out loud??.

13) Roger Goodall must?ve had some indigestion with his turkey when he heard that Ravens? QB Lamar Jackson tested positive for COVID.

If the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game gets postponed out of this week, it probably creates a Week 18 of the regular season, which would push the playoffs back a week and eliminate the extra week between conference title games and the Super Bowl.

12) Texans 41, Detroit 25
? Texans won three of their last four games, after a 1-6 start.
? JJ Watt had a pick-6 in the first quarter.
? Two of Houston?s four TD drives were shorter than 40 yards.

? Detroit lost four of last five games, giving up 32.6 ppg.
? Lions are 6-12 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog, 0-3 TY.
? From 2014-17, Detroit was 36-28 under Jim Caldwell; he got fired.
? Last three years, Detroit is 13-29-1 under Matt Patricia; he still has a job.

11) Since Barry Sanders retired in 1999, Detroit has averaged 92.2 rushing yards/game, the lowest amount of any NFL team during that time.

10) Washington 41, Dallas 16
? Washington won three of its last four games, after a 1-5 start.
? Washington scored a defensive TD, had short TD drives for 19-23 yards.
? Washington is 3-2 inside the division, with losses by 1-3 points.
? Washington is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games as a road underdog.

? Things unraveled for Dallas after an ill-fated fake punt failed badly.
? Cowboys lost five of their last six games.
? Last nine games, Dallas is minus-13 in turnovers.
? Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this year; their three wins by total of 7 points.
? Dallas lost four of its last six Thanksgiving games.

9) Western Kentucky 75, Memphis 69:
? WKU big man Charles Bassey had 21 points, 14 rebounds.
? Hilltoppers play West Virginia in the tournament final Friday.

8) Gonzaga 102, Kansas 90:
? Game was tied with 16:35 left; Zags pulled away late.
? Gonzaga scored 1.24 points/possession, very efficient.
? Talent level for Kansas is down a little this season.

7) Villanova 83, Arizona State 74
? Villanova was +16 on the boards in this game.
? Arizona State was 12-21 on foul line, after going 34-46 Wednesday.

6) Virginia Cavaliers scored 89 points in their season opener Wednesday; they averaged 57 ppg last year, with a season-high of 78, in a win over Boston College. Tony Bennett added shooters, and Virginia looks poised for another excellent year.

5) ESPN?s Paul Biancardi was saying this week that this year?s freshman class in college hoop is one of the most talented in years. Something to keep an eye on this winter.

4) Strange/ominous scores from this week so far:
? USC 95, Cal Baptist 87 OT
? St Francis PA 80, Pittsburgh 70

3) When Sam Merrill got drafted by Milwaukee, it was the first time in 34 years the NBA had drafted a Utah State Aggie (Greg Grant).

2) After he passed away in 2015, former North Carolina basketball coach Dean Smith sent each of his former players a $200 check for a night out on him- he had a lot of former players.

1) Belated congratulations to the NC Dinos, who won the Korean World Series in six games over the Doosan Bears. I enjoyed learning about the KBO this year, but the 5am first pitch for lot of their games was a bit much.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack
NFL leaders in passing yards:
3,201? Watson, Hst
3,035? Mahomes, KC
2,986? Wilson, Sea
2,978? Ryan, Atl
2,955? Brady, TB
2,889? Rodgers, GB

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 265,866
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I caddied for Charles Barkley ~15 years ago. I?ll never forget it. He tipped more than teenage me could comprehend. When I gave the $ back, he said ?Son, if I?ve taught you anything today, let it be this: if anyone ever hands you cash, you take that money and you run.?
Joel Thompson

Sunday?s quiz
Who was QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs when they won their only Super Bowl title?

Saturday?s quiz
Michigan-Minnesota play every year, for the Little Brown Jug

Friday?s quiz
Joe Gibbs was the Washington Redskins? coach the last time they won a playoff game, in 2005.

*****************************

Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) All three quarterbacks on the Denver Broncos? roster are ineligible to play Sunday against the Saints after being deemed high-risk, close contacts in COVID-19 tracing.

Denver has a WR Kendall Hinton who played some QB at Wake Forest; he completed 53% of his passes for 1,504 yards passing, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He would seem like a logical candidate to take over, or they could run a Wildcat-type offense with their RB?s.

Game has been taken off the board in several sportsbooks, but Circa Sports reposted with the Saints a 13-point favorite.

12) Oklahoma State 50, Texas Tech 44- Strangest ballgame I?ve seen in quite a while:
? Tech scored a TD with 7:15 left in 3rd quarter to go up 24-21
? Tech tried a surprise onside kick; Oklahoma State ran it back for a TD.
? On next series, Tech threw a pick-6, and now trailed 34-24.
? Series after that, Tech drove 75 yards for a TD. 34-31.
? Four TD?s in 4:43, with OSU?s offense never taking the field during that time.

Oklahoma State was -12; with about 1:30 left, Cowboys had a third down play in Tech territory, and their RB breaks into the clear for an easy TD, but he slides down on the 8-yard line, since Tech was out of time-outs. If you took the 12 points, good for you; if you gave 12, not so much.

11) Buffalo 70, Kent State 41:
? Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson ran ball 36 times for 409 yards, 8 TD?s. He ran for 301 yards and four TD?s last week.

10) Detroit Lions fired their coach and their GM Saturday; Lions were 13-29-1 under Matt Patricia, after the last coach went 36-28 and got fired. Very curious to see where they go next.

9) For at least the next three weeks, the San Francisco 49ers are a team without a home; Santa Clara County issued stricter COVID-19 guidelines this weekend, effectively putting a three-week ban on any contact sports taking place in the county.

During the next three weeks, 49ers have home games with Buffalo/Washington. They can?t even practice in Santa Clara County, so they?ll be pulling up stakes and moving elsewhere for at least a month or so.

8) Indiana 27, Maryland 11? Hoosiers? QB Michael Penix Jr left with a leg injury after suffering thru a bad day- 6-for-19 for 84 yards passing. Indiana is a surprising 5-1.

7) College football upsets this week:
? Oregon State (+14) 41, Oregon 38
? Michigan State (+13.5) 29, Northwestern 20
? East Carolina (+12.5) 52, SMU 38
? Rutgers (+12) 37, Purdue 30
? Ball State (+10) 27, Toledo 24
? South Alabama (+7) 38, Arkansas State 31
? Utah State (+6) 42, New Mexico 27

6) Baylor 32, Kansas State 31
? Bears scored 10 points in final 4:32 to pull out win, kicking GW 30-yard FG at gun.
? K-State led 17-6 at halftime; loss drops them to 4-5.

5) East Carolina 52, SMU 38:
? Imagine laying 12 points with SMU and being down 45-7 at halftime?
? East Carolina racked up 493 yards, improved its record to 3-6.

4) Coastal Carolina-Louisiana will play in the Sun Belt title game Dec 19; Chanticleers routed Texas State 49-14, while the Ragin? Cajuns waxed UL-Monroe 70-20.

3) Virginia Tech 81, Villanova 73 OT
? Really good game; Tech made 10-20 3?s to pull the upset.
? Villanova played all five starters 37:00+; only six guys played more than 4:00.

2) Saint Louis 85, LSU 81? This will be a significant score on Selection Sunday; Billikens have all five starters back from last year, are one of the best teams in the Atlantic 14.

1) It says on the Interweb that this coming Tuesday morning at 10:30am, Western Kentucky will play Charlotte in a football game, to be telecast on CBS Sports Network. 10:30am; why?

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Raiders (6-4) @ Atlanta (3-7)
? Las Vegas won four of their last six games, covered five of them.
? Raiders scored 33 ppg in their last three games.
? Las Vegas won four of its five road games SU.
? Raiders converted 25 of their last 48 third down plays.
? Eight of ten Raider games went over the total.
? Raiders are 2-3-1 ATS in last six games as road favorites.

? Falcons won three of last five games, after an 0-5 start.
? Atlanta lost four five home games; the win was over Denver.
? Atlanta led four of its last five games at halftime.
? Falcon opponents converted only 19 of last 57 third down plays.
? Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as home underdogs, 0-1 TY.
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

? Falcons won last four series games.
? Raiders are 3-4 in Atlanta, losing last two visits, 35-10/23-20.

Cardinals (6-4) @ New England (4-6)
? Arizona scored 30+ points in last five games, winning four of them.
? Cardinals allowed 31.5 ppg in their last four games.
? Cardinals won three of five road games SU TY.
? Redbirds are 5-5 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite, 2-1 TY.
? Cardinals outscored their opponent in 2nd half in last eight games.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in seven of its ten games.

? New England won two of its last three games.
? Patriots won three of its five home games SU.
? New England trailed at halftime in six of its last seven games.
? NE turned ball over 14 times in first six games, once in last four games.
? Patriots are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
? Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

? New England won six of last seven series games.
? Cardinals are 3-2 in Foxboro, winning 20-18 in last visit, in 2012.

NJ Giants (3-7) @ Cincinnati (2-7-1)
? Giants won their last two games, covered six of last seven.
? Giants are 0-5 SU, 3-2 ATS outside their division.
? Five of Giants? last six games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
? Big Blue lost four of five road games, winning 23-20 at Washington.
? Last 4+ years, Giants are 4-2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

? Backup QB Brandon Allen gets his first 2020 start; he was 1-2 as a starter for Denver last season.
? Bengals lost last two games by a combined 56-17.
? Cincinnati is 2-2 SU at home this year, 3-0-1 ATS.
? Cincy is 4-6-2 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
? Bengals led at halftime in five of their last six games.
? AFC North teams are 6-1-1 ATS as a non-divisional underdog.

? Home side won all ten series games.
? Giants are 0-6 in Cincinnati; their last visit here was in 2012.

Browns (7-3) @ Jacksonville (1-9)
? Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 31.3 ppg in wins
? Cleveland split its four road games, winning 49-38/37-34.
? Browns scored 10 or fewer points in three of last five games.
? Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite.
? Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
? Last three games, Browns outscored foes 13-6 in first half.

? Glennon gets start at QB for Jaguars, his first start since 2017; he is 6-16 as an NFL starter
? Jaguars lost last nine games, but covered two of last three.
? Last two games, Jaguars scored one TD on 23 drives.
? Jacksonville gave up 30.8 ppg in their last nine games.
? Jaguars are 7-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 2-4 TY.
? Last two weeks, Jacksonville averaged 4.0/3.4 yards/pass attempt.
? AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-8-1 ATS.

? Jacksonville is 12-5 in series, winning last three meetings, last of which was in 2017.
? Browns lost 24-20/24-6 in last two visits to Jacksonville.

Panthers (4-7) @ Minnesota (4-6)
? Carolina lost five of its last six games; they blanked Detroit LW.
? Panthers? last two road losses were by a combined five points.
? Panthers are 16-10 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.
? Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
? Panthers allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games.
? NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-4 ATS.

? Vikings won three of four games, since their bye week.
? Minnesota covered six of its last eight games.
? Vikings allowed 27+ points in all six of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
? Minnesota has 14 turnovers (-9) in its losses, two in its wins (+5).
? Minnesota is 19-11-2 ATS in last 32 games as a home favorite, 1-3 TY.
? Vikings are 3-0 SU when they allow fewer than 27 points.

? Minnesota leads series 8-6; last meeting was in 2017.
? Panthers lost six of nine visits to the Twin Cities; last one was in 2014.

Titans (7-3) @ Indianapolis (7-3)
? Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of its last five games.
? Titans split their last six games, after a 4-0 start.
? Titans lost field position by 6+ yards in five of last six games.
? Tennessee is 3-1 SU on road; all three wins were by 1-2 points or in OT.
? Over is 6-2-1 in Titans? last nine games.
? Titans are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.

? Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
? Indy won four of five home games, losing to Baltimore.
? Colts scored 31+ points in four of their five games.
? Indy is 11-7-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
? AFC South teams are 11-15-1 ATS outside their division.
? Five of their last six games went over the total.

? Colts outscored Tennessee 21-0 in 2nd half of 34-17 win in Nashville 17 days ago.
? Colts blocked a punt for a TD in this game.
? Indy won 20 of last 24 series games, four of last five.
? Home side lost last four series games; Titans won last two visits here.

LA Chargers (3-7) @ Buffalo (7-3)
? Chargers lost seven of last nine games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
? Bolts are 1-4 SU on road, losing by 7-3-1-8 points.
? Last eight Charger games went over the total.
? Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
? In last six games, LA scored 21 TD?s on 67 drives; the rookie QB is good.
? In their last seven games, Chargers gave up 30.8 ppg.

? Buffalo won three of its last four games, scoring 29.0 ppg.
? Bills won four of five home games, losing only to Kansas City.
? Buffalo lost its last game on a Hail Mary on last play in Arizona.
? Bills scored 24+ points in six of their seven wins; 16-17-30 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
? Eight of their ten games went over the total.

? Chargers won last four series games, all by 11+ points.
? Chargers won 22-10/31-20 in their last two visits to Buffalo.

Dolphins (6-4) @ NJ Jets (0-10)
? Dolphins won/covered five of their last five games.
? Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of four of those six games.
? Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in four of six wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
? Miami won three of five road games, losing 21-11 in Foxboro, 20-13 in Denver LW.
? Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog.
? In last four games, 5 of 9 Miami TD?s were on drives shorter than 40 yards; they also scored two defensive TD?s and ran a punt back for a score.

? Winless Jets are 3-7 ATS, losing home games by 8-9-20-8-3 points.
? Jets are 0-5 SU at home this year (2-3 ATS), losing by 18-9-20-8-26 points.
? Jets have been outscored 59-29 in 2nd half of their last five games.
? Flacco is expected to get another start in place of injured starter Darnold.
? Jets are 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
? NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 14-4 ATS.

? Miami blanked Jets 24-0 in Miami six weeks ago, winning field position by 18 yards.
? Teams combined to converted only 3-26 third down plays.
? Home side won seven of last eight series games.
? Dolphins lost four of last five series games in the Garden State.

Saints (8-2) @ Denver (4-6)
? Hill threw for 233 yards, ran for 51 more in first NFL start as a QB.
? New Orleans won its last seven games, last three by 35-14-15 points.
? Saints allowed 18.9 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
? New Orleans won three of four road games; they?re 2-0 outdoors, winning 26-23 in Chicago, 38-3 in Tampa.
? Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite.
? Seven of their ten games went over the total.

? Denver lost three of last five games, giving up 31.4 ppg.
? Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last nine games.
? Denver lost three of five home games, losing by 2-18-27 points.
? Broncos are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog, 3-2 TY.
? Three of their last five games went over the total.
? Denver turned ball over 12 times (-6) in their last five games.

? Broncos won last five series games.
? Saints lost five of six visits to Denver, losing 34-32/34-14 in last two.

49ers (4-6) @ LA Rams (7-3)
? 49ers had bye LW; Rams played in Florida Monday night.
? Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
? 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 31.7 ppg in their losses.
? 49ers lost last three games (0-3 ATS), giving up 32.7 ppg.
? Over is 3-2 in their road games this season.
? 49ers are 13-10 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog.

? Rams won five of their last seven games.
? LA has outscored opponents 116-45 in second half of games.
? Rams are 4-0 SU at home, winning by 3-8-14-7 points.
? Six of LA?s last seven games stayed under the total.
? Under McVay, Rams are 13-10 ATS as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
? NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 19-17 ATS.

? 49ers led 21-6 at halftime, held off the Rams 24-16 at home in Week 6.
? San Francisco won last three series games; they won three of last four visits here.
? Rams averaged only 5.2 yards/pass attempt in Week 6, their worst mark this year.

Chiefs (9-1) @ Tampa Bay (7-4)
? Chiefs won their last five games, last two 33-31/35-31.
? Kansas City won all five road games this year, covering three of them.
? Chiefs are 8-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
? Three of their last four games went over.
? Chiefs scored 32+ points in seven of 10 games this year.
? AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-2-1 ATS.

? Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-4 when it scores less.
? Short week for Buccaneers after their home game Monday night.
? Tampa Bay won seven of its last ten games.
? Bucs are 3-2 SU at home, losing last two home games to Saints/Rams.
? Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.
? Last four games, Bucs were outscored 79-37 in first half.

? Tampa Bay won last five series games; three of last four series games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
? Chiefs lost last three visits here by a combined 73-28; their last visit here was in ?12.

Bears (5-5) @ Green Bay (7-3)
? Bears lost their last four games, after a 5-1 start.
? Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
? Bears scored only 15.8 ppg in last four games.
? Bears are 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games as road underdog, 3-2 TY.
? Chicago has only three takeaways in its last four games (-4).
? Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.

? Green Bay split its last six games, after a 4-0 start.
? Packers scored 30+ points in six of their wins; 10-22-31 points in losses.
? Green Bay converted 57-119 third down plays (47.9%)
? Packers are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
? Three of four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
? Packers were outscored in second half of their last seven games.

? Green Bay won 17 of last 20 series games; their last four series wins were all by 8 or fewer points.
? Bears lost last four visits to Lambeau Field, by 16-21-1-8 points.

Seahawks (7-3) Eagles (3-6-1)
? Seattle lost three of last five games, after a 5-0 start.
? Seahawks won field position in first five games, but only once in last five.
? Seattle is 7-3-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
? Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of ten games; they scored 34-34-16 in losses.
? Seven of their ten games went over the total.
? Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (1-7) their last three games.

? Philly is 1-4-1 SU outside their division.
? Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-6-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Underdogs covered seven of their ten games this season.
? Eagles are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
? Philly is 2-2-1 SU at home this season, losing to Rams/Ravens
? Six of last eight Philly games stayed under the total.

? Seahawks won last six series games, holding Eagles to 11.8 ppg.
? Seattle won its last six visits here; their last loss in Philly was in 1989.

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Tennessee at Indianapolis

-- The Colts are 10-0 ATS (9.90 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a favorite facing a team scoring at least 23 points per game.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at Atlanta

-- The Falcons are 0-11-1 ATS (-10.71 ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 as a home dog coming off a game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: San Francisco at L.A. Rams

-- The Rams are 9-0 ATS (7.44 ppg) since Oct 27, 2019 coming off a game where Jared Goff threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati

-- The Giants are 11-0 OU (10.36 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 off a game as a home dog where they allowed at least 145 rushing yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at Atlanta

-- The Falcons are 0-10-1 OU (-8.32 ppg) since Oct 09, 2011 as a dog coming off a road game where they failed to cover.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati

-- The Bengals are 10-0 ATS (7.95 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Udog]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
Micah Roberts

Washington bails out Books

Sunday?s Week 12 NFL action appeared to be getting heavier from 12 to 13 games because of a COVID-19 outbreak in Baltimore which left only two Thursday games, but both were heavily bet as usual on Thanksgiving.

Fortunately for the sportsbooks, they were given one beak with the results to help avoid an awful day.

?The Washington Football Team was a big help as the favorite and over combo of Texans to Over and Cowboys to over was the worst case,? said Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick. ?College basketball handle was incredible out of the box with mixed results.?

Winning three out of four NFL sides and totals can actually show a profit for a popular locals chain of books like Stations because the most popular four-team parlay lost as well as the late two-team parlay.

It?s always a temporary win, though, because the Thanksgiving leftovers are waiting to cash with a few teams on Sunday that will payout 6-to-1, 10-to-1, and higher.

Public fading NFC South Underdogs

The top candidate expected to be on the most parlay?s waiting to cash is the Las Vegas Raiders who are three-point road favorites at Atlanta.

It?s the top public play at Stations, the SuperBook, South Point, and Atlantis Reno. The Raiders went toe-to-toe with a good fight against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in a 34-31 loss, but covered the number for their fourth straight cover to make it 7-3 ATS this season (tied for second-best) and also go 7-2-1 to the over.

The Falcons sit at 3-7 on the season and are coming off a bad 24-9 loss to the Saints in Week 11 and are 1-4 at home in five games.

The next most popular public play is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have gone from -3 to -3.5 at Tampa Bay who comes off a tough Monday night loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams.

The total has risen from 53 to 56. It?s as if everyone spending $20 to $100 for Week 12 have turned their back on quarterback Tom Brady and the Bucs. And the 9-1 Chiefs aren?t covering at the same rate as last season, but they rarely have bad games. Plus, they?re 5-0 on the road and can be trusted at a short price.

Understanding Pro's vs. Joe's Action

But the collective public betting logic is kind of why I write this piece each week. It?s nice to see what the sharps like, and I?ll let you know who they do shortly, but the public weight is more important for me to know before I bet.

The public opinion is how all these beautiful sportsbooks are being built and why every chain in the world wants a piece of America?s new stance on legal sports betting.

To give an example of how good the average Joe is for business, let?s look at the top-4 public plays from last week:

Dolphins (-4 at Denver)
Chiefs (-7.5 at Las Vegas)
Patriots (-2.5 at Houston)
Packers (+1.5 at Indianapolis)

They also liked the Steelers (-10.5 at Jacksonville) who won and covered, but the other four were losses that helped the books have a great Sunday.

Visiting Risk

Back to week 12 public risk which also has the Dolphins (-6.5 at NY Jets), the Giants (-6 at Cincinnati), and Saints (-6 at Denver).

AFC East Value?

The Dolphins had their five-game win streak snapped at Denver with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa getting benched in the fourth quarter of a winnable game for back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Jets played hard again behind Joe Flacco at the Chargers to give Flacco covers in his last two starts. But the Jets are still 0-10, which can be a negative in the minds of the public. QB Sam Darnold expected to get the nod for the Jets this week.

Broncos are home 'dogs -- again

The Broncos found their running game last week against the Dolphins and the defense played great to help the win. ?Less (Drew) Lock, more (Phillip) Lindsay,? has been the battle cry for most Denver fans lately.

The Saints have won seven straight and covered three straight and the public got the nod last week that QB Taysom Hill is a suitable replacement for Drew Brees.

Handicapping the Bengals

I had an interesting conversation with a respected bettor early in the week about the Giants-Bengals game. It went something like this:

MR: ?The Bengals are going to be awful without QB Joe Burrow; he kept them in games, chewed up the clock with an effective short passing game which helped the Bengals cover six of nine games before getting hurt.?

RB: ?So you like the Giants to roll then, right? No real home-field edge with Cincy and QB Brandon Allen is starting for Burrow. I think Allen started three times for the Broncos last season.?

MR: ?Are you kidding? How can you lay points with the Giants? This is a team that?s been favored once all season, laying two points at home against Washington and they couldn?t even cover in a 20-19 win. They?ve covered seven of 10, but only when catching points. I don?t want any part of either team.?

The Giants have covered four straight and have won two straight as they try to keep up with NFC East-leading Washington?s four wins. Wynn Sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Giants are their biggest liability of the week so far.

Sharp Action

The most popular sharp bets this week have been the San Francisco 49ers (+7.5 & +7) and the Philadelphia Eagles (+6) on Monday Night Football.

The Rams come off two huge wins in beating Seattle and Tampa Bay while the 49ers have looked horrible in losing their last three (0-3 ATS), so naturally, the wise guys expect a Rams letdown and for NFL players on the banged-up 49ers to be NFL quality and play well. This is why the SuperBook is sitting Rams -6.5.

The Eagles are trying to keep pace in the NFC East and with a home win Monday night they can remain in first-place. The Seahawks are well rested after a huge win over Arizona last Thursday while the Eagles have lost two straight, albeit on the road. At home, the Eagles are 2-2-1. At all locations, the Eagles have turned the ball over 20 times.

The Golden Nugget sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas already knows who they need the most and the risk is only going to get larger because it?s the toxic Sunday night game where books often find themselves in an all-way loss after all the Sunday games have been posted and heavy parlay and teaser risk carries to all sides of the late game.

?We get blasted if the Packers cover Sunday night as of right now," said Nugget book director Tony Miller. ?We?re a Packer house and have always been.?

QB Mitch Trubisky is expected to start for the Bears at Green Bay Sunday night with the Packers being 9.5-point favorites and a total set at 44.5.

Understand House Rules

The big news of the week was COVID-19 swirling in the Ravens weight-lifting room at their complex which forced a move from Thursday night to Sunday afternoon for their game at Pittsburgh. QB Lamar Jackson was one of those players testing positive and they already had RBs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins listed as out for Thursday?s game. There still is a possibility of the game being moved to Tuesday.

But the main thing I saw throughout the week was how different all the house rules are regarding date changes.

Some books like Station Casinos have the longstanding rules of must play on its scheduled date and location for action. They have not reposted the Sunday game odds for fear of the game being moved to Tuesday. Saves for the customer aggravation when bets are refunded when not knowing the rules.

But other books have different rules like the SuperBook that stipulates a game must be played before August 2021 for action. They?re giving themselves lots of wiggle room after hearing some blowback on future bets refunded when having date changes such as the Masters or French Open.

Wynn?s rule states the original location must be the site played at but the game must be played within seven days of the originally scheduled date.

BetMGM has the same 7-day rule and already has a huge risk on the Steelers. It?s their biggest risk of the week so far.

Here?s a quick recap on the sharp/public divide for the upcoming games.

As always, good luck!

Week 12 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Public:

Raiders
Chiefs
Giants
Dolphins
Saints

Sharp:

49ers
Eagles
Panthers
Jets
Falcons
Raiders
Patriots

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

All 4 Denver QB's are out. Starting WR Kendall Hinton at QB.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LV at ATL 01:00 PM
LV -3.5
O 53.0

CAR at MIN 01:00 PM
CAR +3.0
O 50.0

CLE at JAC 01:00 PM
O 48.5

MIA at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +7.5
O 45.0

NYG at CIN 01:00 PM
NYG -6.5
U 45.0

LAC at BUF 01:00 PM
O 51.0

TEN at IND 01:00 PM
IND -3.0
O 51.5

ARI at NE 01:00 PM
ARI -1.0

 

[Cnotes53]

LATE GAMES AND SUNDAY NIGHT BAIL OUT !

NO at DEN 04:05 PM
DEN +17.0
O 36.0

SF at LAR 04:05 PM
SF +5.5
U 44.5

KC at TB 04:25 PM
KC -3.5
U 56.0

CHI at GB 08:20 PM
CHI +8.0
O 45.0

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/29/2020 9-12-0 42.85% -2100 Detail
11/26/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/23/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/22/2020 15-8-0 65.22% +3100 Detail
11/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........61-67-1.....47.65%....-54.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack
College hoop scores from Sunday:
? Houston 64, Texas Tech 53
? Rhode Island 84, San Francisco 71
? Baylor 86, Washington 52- Bears are really good.
? Michigan 81, Oakland 71 OT? Close call for Wolverines.
? South Carolina 69, Tulsa 58
? Virginia Tech 76, South Florida 58

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 266,099
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I was disappointed on several levels that our quarterbacks put us in that position, that our quarterbacks put the league in that position. We count on them to be the leaders of our team, the leaders of our offense, and those guys made a mistake.?
Denver coach Vic Fangio

Monday?s quiz
Which current college coach was the Eagles? head coach before Doug Pederson?

Sunday?s quiz
Brad Johnson was QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs when they won their only Super Bowl title.

Saturday?s quiz
Michigan-Minnesota play every year, for the Little Brown Jug

**************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

New England 20, Cardinals 17
? Cardinals tied game on an 80-yard drive, with 8:02 left.
? Arizona was stuffed on 1-yard line trying to score TD on last play of first half.
? Total yardage in game: Arizona 298, New England 179.
? Cardinals? longest play of day was only 19 yards.

? New England won three of its last four games.
? Folk kicked a 55-yard FG at the gun for the win.
? Newton was 9-18/94 passing, ran for 46 more yards.
? New England trailed at halftime in seven of its last eight games.

Minnesota 28, Panthers 27
? Rookie LB Jeremy China scored defensive TD?s 0:10 apart in 3rd quarter, first time since 1948 a player scored two defensive TD?s in same game.
? Carolina lost six of its last seven games; they missed a 54-yard FG wide left on last play.
? Panthers? last three road losses were by a combined six points.
? Carolina is 0-8 when they allow 23+ points, 4-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

? Vikings won four of five games since their bye week.
? Minnesota trailed 21-10 after third quarter.
? Three drives in 4th quarter: Vikings ran 30 plays for 222 yards, scored 18 points.
? Beebe caught game-winning 10-yard TD pass with 0:46 left.

Browns 27, Jacksonville 25
? Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 30.8 ppg in wins
? Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite.
? Chubb ran for 144 yards and a TD; Mayfield threw for 258 yards.
? Right now, Browns would be #5 seed in AFC.

? Jacksonville scored TD with 2:14 left to make it 27-25, but failed on 2-point play.
? Glennon was 20-35/235 passing in his first start since 2017.
? Jaguars lost last ten games (3-7 ATS) overall.
? Total yardage: Browns 459, Jaguars 375

Titans 45, Indianapolis 26
? Tennessee had ball six times in first half, scored five TD?s, led 35-14.
? Henry ran for 178 yards, 6.6 yards/carry.
? Over is 7-2-1 in Titans? last ten games.
? Titans are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.

? Colts are 6-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-4 when they do not.
? Indy lost field position by 16 yards, ran ball for only 56 yards.
? Tennessee won its third straight visit to Indianapolis.
? Six of their last seven games went over the total.

Atlanta 46, Raiders 3
? Falcons won four of last six games, after an 0-5 start.
? Atlanta wasn?t great on offense, kicking five FG?s, with only three TD?s.
? Falcon opponents converted only 22 of last 69 third down plays.

?Las Vegas turned ball over five times, had 11 penalties for 141 yards.
? Raiders are 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as road favorites.
? Raiders went 3/out on 7 of their 13 drives.

NJ Giants 19, Cincinnati 17
? Giants won their last three games, sit atop NFC East.
? Six of Giants? last seven games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
? Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
? This was Giants? first win in seven visits to Cincinnati.

? Cincinnati scored with 2:33 left for the backdoor cover.
? Wilson ran a kick back 103 yards for the Bengals? first TD.
? Bengals lost last three games by a combined 75-34.
? Cincy is 4-0-1 ATS at home this year.

Buffalo 27, LA Chargers 17
? Chargers lost eight of their last ten games.
? Bolts are 1-5 SU on road, losing by 7-3-1-8-10 points.
? Chargers are 2-5-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
? In their last eight games, Chargers gave up 30.3 ppg.

? Buffalo won four of its last five games, scoring 28.6 ppg.
? Bills ran ball for 172 yards, averaging 5.7 yards/carry.
? Buffalo ran 58 plays, only nine of them on 3rd down.
? Bills maintain a one-game lead over Miami in AFC East.

Dolphins 20, NJ Jets 3
? Dolphins won/covered six of their last seven games.
? Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in five of seven wins; 21-31-31-20 in losses.
? Miami won four of six road games, losing 21-11 in Foxboro, 20-13 in Denver.
? Fitzpatrick regained starting job, threw for 257 yards, two TD?s.

? Winless Jets are 3-8 ATS, losing home games by 8-9-20-8-3-17 points.
? Jets have been outscored 66-29 in 2nd half of their last six games.
? Gang Green was outscored 44-3 in two games vs Miami this year.
? Jets in second half: 6 drives, 21 plays, 60 yards, no points.

Saints 31, Denver 3
? Denver?s QB?s didn?t follow COVID protocol; the league sent Denver (and the rest of the NFL) a message and made them play a game with no quarterback.
? Practice squad WR Kendall Hinton played QB at Wake Forest for a while; they threw him to the wolves here- it didn?t go well.

? New Orleans won its last eight games, covered last four.
? Saints are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road favorite.

Not much else to say about this game, the league made it clear that teams need to follow the COVID rules.

49ers 23, LA Rams 20
? 49ers kicked 42-yard FG at the gun for the win.
? WR Samuel caught 11 passes for 133 yards, both career highs.
? 49ers are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog.
? SF won the last four games in this divisional rivalry.

? Rams turned ball over four times on their first eight drives.
? LA has outscored opponents 133-61 in second half of games.
? Seven of LA?s last eight games stayed under the total.
? Rookie RB Henry ran ball for 84 yards on only nine carries.

Chiefs 27, Tampa Bay 24
? Mahomes threw for 462 yards, three TD?s.
? Tyreek Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two TD?s, just in first quarter
? Chiefs won their last six games, last three by total of nine points.
? Kansas City won all six road games this year.

? Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it scores less.
? Last five games, Bucs were outscored 99-46 in first half.
? Tampa Bay split its six home games this season.
? Brady threw for 345 yards, three TD?s in a losing cause.

Richmond 76, Kentucky 64
? Veteran Spider squad forced 21 turnovers (+11).
? Richmond starts four seniors, Kentucky starts four freshmen.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at PHI 08:15 PM

SEA -6.5

U 49.5

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD
1
11/30/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
11/29/2020 9-12-0 42.85% -2100 Detail
11/26/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
11/23/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/22/2020 15-8-0 65.22% +3100 Detail
11/19/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/16/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........63-67-1.....48.46%....-44.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack
Some interesting Week 13 NFL spreads:
? Detroit @ Chicago (-3)
? Cincinnati @ Miami (-11)
? Indianapolis (-2.5) @ Houston
? Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-9.5)
? Las Vegas (-8) @ NJ Jets
? New Orleans (-3) @ Atlanta

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 267,600
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I know this: We better wake our tails up. Every freaking coach on the staff, every player, better wake up and start understanding where we?re at. Have some personal pride. Have a freaking sense of urgency. Know where we?re at. Have some pride into who we?re playing for and why we do this and then go find a way to win as a team. That?s my challenge to every single person in that building this week is that. Yesterday was flat-out embarrassing, and our guys know it. I?m not telling you something they don?t know. They know it.?
Bears? coach Matt Nagy

Tuesday?s quiz
What fine actor played both Joey Knish in Rounders and coach Billy Sunday in He Got Game?

Monday?s quiz
UCLA coach Chip Kelly was the Eagles? head coach before Doug Pederson.

Sunday?s quiz
Brad Johnson was QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs when they won their only Super Bowl title.

***************************

Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??..

12) NFL pushed Ravens-Steelers game back to Wednesday at 3:40 in the afternoon, so maybe Baltimore can get in some practicing Tuesday. This also means Sunday?s Washington-Pittsburgh game will have to be moved back in the schedule.

Game is in the afternoon because NBC is showing the Christmas tree lighting in Rockefeller Center Wednesday night- that?s a lucrative gig they didn?t want to give up. What TV wants, TV gets.

11) 49ers are moving to Arizona for a few weeks, because of Santa Clara County?s ban on contact sports. 49ers will host Buffalo/Washington in the Cardinals? stadium in Glendale.

10) Bad news for the Indiana Hoosiers; QB Michael Penix Jr is done for the year with a torn ACL. Indiana is having an excellent season; this puts a major damper on it.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars won their opener, haven?t won since; they fired GM Dave Caldwell Sunday, but kept coach Doug Marrone, at least until they have a new GM.

8) Last NFL team to shut out a divisional rival twice in same year? 2002 Falcons blanked Carolina 20-0/41-0.

7) One of the bad beats of last week was Pepperdine (+7) at UCLA. Visiting Waves were up 7 at the half, but wound up losing 107-98, in triple OT. The right side doesn?t always win the bet.

6) This season, there are 17 Division I basketball coaches who are coaching their son(s)

5) Texas 78, Davidson 76? They?re playing the Maui Classic this week in Asheville, NC; this was a good ballgame. Longhorns shot 68% inside arc, Davidson 78%. Game was 43-all at the half; Wildcats had couple of shots to tie/take lead at the end, but Texas prevailed and plays Indiana in the semifinal Tuesday.

4) Thru Sunday, these basketball conferences were doing well ATS:
7-3 ATS: MAC, Mountain West
5-3: SoCon
9-6: ACC
8-6: WCC

3) Thru Sunday, these basketball conferences were doing poorly ATS:
3-8: C-USA
3-6: AAC
2-4: Big West
4-6: SEC

2) Houston Texans WR Will Fuller has been suspended six games for violating the NFL?s performance enhancing drug policy.

1) Last year, Mississippi State beat Ole Miss 21-20 in the Egg Bowl rivalry game; Rebels scored a TD with 0:04 left, but missed a longer PAT after the Ole Miss player who scored the TD got an excessive celebration penalty for miming a dog peeing in the end zone. Not good.

After the game, both teams fired their head coach; those firings ended up impacting the jobs of nearly 300 coaches or staffers throughout the country, in a remarkable chain reaction.

52 I-A schools lost or hired a coach or off-field staffer as a result of the post-Egg Bowl shakeups. I-AA, Division II, D-III, junior college, high school and even six NFL staffs were affected.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack
Week 13 NFL spreads:
? Cleveland @ Tennessee (-5.5)
? NJ Giants @ Seattle (-10)
? LA Rams (-3) @ Arizona
? Philadelphia @ Green Bay (-9.5)
? New England @ LA Chargers (even)
? Denver @ Kansas City (-14)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 270,369
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?Actually, we brought Coach (Bob) Stoops out of retirement today. He was on the field and coached with us today. It was great to have him out there.?
Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley, whose staff has some COVID issues

Wednesday?s quiz
Virginia is technically the defending national champ in college basketball, since they won the tournament two years ago; who did they beat in the championship game?

Tuesday?s quiz
John Turturro played both Joey Knish in Rounders and coach Billy Sunday in He Got Game.

Monday?s quiz
UCLA coach Chip Kelly was the Eagles? head coach before Doug Pederson.

************************

Wednesday?s Den: Mid-week musings??..

13) Trevor Ariza has played for nine teams in his 16-year NBA career; he?s scored 11,215 points, banked over $103M in salary, but it had to be strange when he was traded twice Nov 24-27.

Rockets traded him to Detroit November 24, but his career as a Piston lasted around 72 hours- they dealt him to Oklahoma City. Its good to be wanted, if you look on the bright side.

Ariza has been involved in ten different NBA trades, more than any player ever; he?s been around so long, he was traded with Penny Hardaway in 2006? Hardaway is in his third year as a college head coach? he was a high school coach before that!!!

Bottom line is this: be a good teammate, shoot the ball well, be a good defender and you can last a long time/make serious money in the NBA, even if you?re not one of the biggest stars.

12) NBA training camps started Tuesday; the league?s health/safety protocol handbook is 139 pages long- they take this stuff very seriously.

11) Texas 66, Indiana 44? Longhorns held Indiana to 23.9% from the floor, advance to face North Carolina in the finals of the Maui Classic. Texas outrebounded the Hoosiers, 48-29.

10) North Carolina 67, Stanford 63? Cardinal led by 8 late in first half, but UNC had all five starters score in double figures, winning in their home state. Teams combined to made 9-32 on the arc; playing on consecutive days early in season can result in brickfests. Tar Heels controlled the boards 43-23, which is important in a brickfest.

9) Michigan State 75, Duke 69? Spartans were down 13-3 early, but they pulled ahead by the half, and then hung on at the end for a solid road win. Julius Marble scored 12 points in 12:00 off the bench, making all five of his shots from the floor.

8) Kansas 65, Kentucky 62:
? Kentucky was up 28-15 early, but couldn?t maintain it.
? Kentucky is 0-2 this season, shooting 3-31 on arc.
? Teams combined to go 8-42 behind the arc.
? Two proud programs who both might be little down this year.

7) Providence 63, Davidson 62: With 1:20 left in this game, Providence up 2, kid goes to line for Davidson for two shots, and play-by-play guy points out that he hasn?t missed a foul shot yet this year. No bueno.

Analyst Cory Alexander calls him out for saying that, without saying the word ?jinx? but you could tell he was thinking it. Kid made first shot, missed the second. Davidson missed a driving layup with 0:03 left, lost by a point.

This season, Davidson has players from six different countries; in his career with the Wildcats, Bob McKillop has coached players from 24 different countries.

6) Navy 78, Georgetown 71? Patrick Ewing is in his 4th year as Georgetown?s coach; his Hoyas are 19-35 in Big East games the last three years. Losing to a service academy team here doesn?t help; losing Mac MacClung as a transfer to Texas Tech was a disaster.

5) Buffalo Bills are having a great season, but three weeks ago, they lost 32-30 in Arizona, on a Hail Mary TD on the last play of the game. Now, because of COVID rules in northern California, Bills will find themselves back in the desert Monday night to play the 49ers, who are sharing the Cardinals? facilities for the next few weeks. What a weird year this is.

4) It is important to keep your nose pointed in a positive direction; Most baseball fans know that Don Larsen pitched a perfect game in the 1956 World Series, but that was only two years after he went 3-21 pitching for the Orioles. Talk about going from the outhouse to the penthouse; its a long way from 3-21 to winning a World Series game, much less tossing a perfect game.

3) Shaquille O?Neal tried 22 3-point shots in his Hall of Fame career but made only one of them, which came in the 4th year of his 19-year career; apparently he also made two treys in exhibition games. In 216 career playoff games, Shaq never tried a 3-pointer.

2) Denver Broncos signed QB Kyle Shurmur, son of Denver OC Pat Shurmur; Kyle Shrmur played QB at Vanderbilt, was on the Chiefs? practice squad previously. He gives Denver insurance in case COVID ravages their QB room again this season.

1) Current odds to win the NFC East:
+180? Giants
+225? Washington
+300? Eagles
+475? Cowboys

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 12
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

49ers (+5.5, ML +195) at Rams, 23-20
Falcons (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Raiders, 43-6
Titans (+3, ML +125) at Colts, 45-26
Washington (+2.5, ML +125) at Cowboys (Thu.), 41-16

The largest favorites to cover

Saints (-17) at Broncos, 31-3
Packers (-8) vs. Bears, 41-25
Dolphins (-7.5) at Jets, 20-3
Bills (-4) vs. Chargers, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game was a bummer if you bet the favorite. The Chiefs (-3.5) fired out to a 17-0 lead after 15 minutes, as QB Patrick Mahomes and WR Tyreke Hill combined for over 200 yards -- in the first quarter. Things settled down a bit in the second quarter, as the Buccaneers scored the only touchdown in the quarter to slice the K.C. lead to 20-7 at the break.

In the third quarter, the Chiefs flipped the script, and the Chiefs were leading 27-10. The Chiefs were looking unstoppable, and Mahomes and the pass offense was flirting with 500 before the end of the game. However, the Bucs certainly gave the Chiefs a scare late, showing absolutely no quit.

In the final 15 minutes, the Buccaneers outscored the Chiefs 14-0, and the Chiefs ended up with a 27-24 win, and the Bucs ended up picking up the backdoor cover. The way this one started out, that never looked possible.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The game between the Carolina Panthers-Minnesota Vikings was a bummer on both sides. If you had Carolina on the moneyline (+125), it was a tough pill to swallow. If you had Under (50), it was equally disappointing.

The Panthers picked up a pair fumble recoveries and touchdowns, both by CB Jeremy Chinn, as the Panthers took a 21-10 lead into the final quarter. Under bettors still looked to be in good shape, however.

The two teams exchanged field goals, but the score was 24-13 with just under six minutes to go before the Vikings struck for a touchdown and two-point conversion to cut the lead to 24-21 with 5:31 left in regulation. PK Joey Slye booted a field goal from 21 yards out to push their lead to six with 1:51 to play.

Under bettors were still OK, as were Panthers ML bettors, until QB Kirk Cousins led the team down the field and hit WR Chad Beebe for a 10-yard touchdown with :46 left, giving the Vikings a lead. Carolina ML bettors still had a shot, but a field goal at the horn went well wide to the left.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Denver Broncos (36.5), and that total was reminiscent of the 1980's and 1990's when we would routinely see totals in the 30's. Now, it's an extreme rarity.

The Broncos had their top three quarterbacks on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, so they recalled WR Kendall Hinton from the practice squad. The converted wide receiver played quarterback at Wake Forest, and he was summoned to make his first NFL start. It ended how you would imagine. He completed just one of his nine pass attempts, and was brutal. But it was an extremely unfair situation for him to be put into.

The Saints moved to 2-0 with QB Taysom Hill under center, as he ran for two more touchdowns to win it 31-3, covering a 17-point number on the road, too.

The highest total on Sunday was the Chiefs-Buccaneers game (56.5), but the over was never really threatened, as it took late heroics by the Bucs just to get it to a total of 51 points.

In the one primetime game, the Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers (44), the game easily went over, and the Pack nearly took care of it all by themselves. We still have Monday's Seattle Seahawks-Philadelphia Eagles (49) game, and Tuesday's Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers (41.5) still left to be played this week, both in primetime.

So far this season the under is 22-14 (61.1%) across 36 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 13

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Saints and Falcons square off for the second time in three weeks. New Orleans picked up a 24-9 win in Week 11 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in NOLA, covering a 3.5-point number as the 'under' (49.5) was never in doubt. Hill made his first start in place of the injured QB Drew Brees (ribs) in that one, and he proved all of the doubters wrong. The Saints are on a eight-game winning streak, and they have covered four in a row with four straight 'under' results. For the Falcons, they routed the Raiders 43-6 on Sunday, and they're 3-1 SU/ATS over the past four, with just that loss to the Falcons in the L column. The 'under' is 4-1 across the past five for ATL, too.

As far as trends, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Atlanta, and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four in this series, and 8-3 in the past 11 meetings overall.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts were shellacked at home by the Titans, 45-26, as the 'over' (51.5) easily connected. Meanwhile, the Texans registered a 41-25 win in the early game on Thanksgiving, covering a three-point number on the road as the 'over' (52.5) cashed.

Houston has won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they have covered a season-high three in a row after a 1-6 ATS start to the season. Indy has won each of its past two road trips, a 34-17 win in Tennessee on Nov. 12, and a 41-21 win at Detroit on Nov. 1 in Week 8. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for Indy, and 6-1 across the past seven for the Colts.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Rams are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 23-20 loss at home to the 49ers in Week 12. The 'under' (44.5) held on for L.A. The 'under' (50.5) also cashed in a disappointing 20-17 loss for the Cardinals in New England, so both teams should enter this one in a rather foul mood.

L.A. is 9-1 ATS across the past 10 games following a non-cover, and 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss. They're also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 on the road. For Arizona, they're 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven as an underdog, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. However, they have failed to cover the past four, and they're 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight following a straight-up loss.

In this series, the road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and the favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven. The Rams have also covered five straight trips to Arizona, and they're 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings in the series. The 'under' is 11-5 in the past 16 meetings in Arizona.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Broncos will hit the road for Sunday Night Football after hitting rock-bottom on Sunday. It was a rough situation for the Broncos to be in, forcing to start a practice-squad receiver at quarterback after losing their top three signal callers. They're expected to have at least one quarterback ready for next week, although it's uncertain who.

The Chiefs will have Mahomes, and that's why they're at two-touchdown favorite to open. The Chiefs are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against losing teams, and 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 at home. They're also 14-5-1 ATS in the past 20 overall, although, as mentioned above, they just missing a cover in Tampa last week. In this series, the Broncos are 1-9 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and the 'over' is 3-1-1 in the past five battles at Arrowhead in this series.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 13: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

The Rams' Aaron Donald and the Cardinals' Kyler Murray will get reacquainted in a Week 13 matchup that has both teams needing a win. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles a 2.5-point road favorite.

NFL Week 12 still has two matchups left, on Monday night and Tuesday night, but NFL Week 13 odds stop for no one and are already getting some action. Among the noteworthy matchups: an AFC clash between the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, and an NFC West battle pitting the Los Angeles Rams against the Arizona Cardinals.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 13 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

Teams on bye: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers

Cowboys at Ravens Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
This game was supposed to be the Week 13 Thursday nighter, but the Ravens-Steelers Week 12 game ? originally set for Thanksgiving night ? won't be played until Tuesday, due to Baltimore's COVID issues. So Week 13 will have two Monday games, the Cowboys-Ravens at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the regularly scheduled Bills-49ers contest.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's Week 13 status is uncertain due to his positive COVID test, so The SuperBook is not posting this game until there's more clarity.


Lions at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Lions tumbled to Houston 41-25 at home on Thanksgiving and on Saturday fired coach Matt Patricia. On Sunday night, the Bears got thumped at Green Bay 41-25. The SuperBook opened Lions-Bears at Chicago -3 and quickly scooted to -3.5 early Sunday evening. Per standard operating procedure, the game then came off the board once the Bears-Packers Sunday night meeting began, and the line will go back up Monday morning.


Bengals at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -11.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
Miami had no issues with the still-winless New York Jets, winning 20-3 on the road Sunday, while Cincinnati was respectable, minus Joe Burrow, in a 19-17 home loss to the New York Giants. Still, the Dolphins are not the Giants, and as such, The SuperBook opened Miami -11.5. There was no line movement through Sunday night.


Colts at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans +2.5, Over/Under 55

Why the line moved
Indianapolis took a beating at the hands of Tennessee in Week 12, losing 45-26 at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a mini-bye after bouncing host Detroit 41-25 on Thanksgiving.

"We opened Colts -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Colts' defense got torched in the first half today. We're going to keep a close eye on the Colts' injury report. They were missing some key guys on defense today, and it showed."


Jaguars at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -9.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Minnesota's offense had turnovers on consecutive plays Sunday, and both were returned for touchdowns, yet the Vikings still managed a 28-27 victory over visiting Carolina, winning on a last-minute touchdown. Jacksonville kept it interesting as a touchdown underdog to Cleveland, losing 27-25 at home. The SuperBook opened the Vikes -9.5, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Washington at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -10, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh still has Week 12 work to do, and in fact can't do that work until Tuesday in the multi-delayed matchup against Baltimore. Washington will be much more rested, coming off a stunning 41-16 road wipeout of Dallas on Thanksgiving. The SuperBook opened the Steelers -10, and there was no line movement Sunday night.


Raiders at Jets Odds
Opening line
Jets +8.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Las Vegas laid a fat Week 12 egg in Atlanta, getting boat raced 43-6, but winless New York (0-11 SU) could be the cure. The hapless Jets fell to Miami 20-3. However, it appears early bettors were much less impressed by the Raiders' awful showing, as this line is already down a point to -7.5 Sunday night.


Saints at Falcons Odds
Opening line
Falcons +3, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
New Orleans is 2-0 in the Taysom Hill era, with at least another two games to go before Drew Brees (ribs) can get back under center. The Saints coasted to a 31-3 road victory over the quarterback-less Broncos, while Atlanta pounded visiting Las Vegas 43-6. New Orleans opened -3 at The SuperBook, and the only movement Sunday night was a price adjustment to Saints -3 (-120).


Browns at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans -4, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
Tennessee waltzed over host Indianapolis 45-26 in Week 12, while Cleveland hung on for a 27-25 road win over Jacksonville. The Titans are atop the AFC South at 8-3, and the Browns (8-3) occupy the top wild-card slot.

"We opened this one Titans -4 and are still there," Murray said Sunday evening. "Incredible performance by the Titans today. I think the public will be pretty heavily on them here."


Giants at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Seattle still has Week 12 work to do, traveling to face Philadelphia in the Monday nighter, while New York squeaked by host Cincinnati 19-17 Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Seahawks -9, and there was no movement through Sunday night.


Rams at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals +2.5, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Los Angeles rallied from a 17-3 deficit against visiting San Francisco on Sunday, but ultimately lost 23-20 on a final-seconds field goal. Arizona went to New England as a short favorite and left with a 20-17 loss, also on a final-seconds field goal.

"We opened Rams -2.5 and are still there," Murray said. "The Rams will be a fairly public side, but I expect to see bets come in both ways here. The Cardinals really gave that game away today to New England. Both teams need this game to keep pace in the playoff race."


Eagles at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay rolled over Chicago 41-25 in the Week 12 Sunday nighter, while Philly is set to host Seattle in the Monday nighter. Eagles-Packers opened Green Bay -7 at The SuperBook and had no movement before coming off the board once the Packers kicked off against the Bears.

"There could be significant line movement either way, depending on how those games play out," Murray said, alluding to the Week 12 Sunday and Monday night games. "Having said that, we will need the Eagles."


Patriots at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
New England nabbed a last-second 20-17 home win over Houston in Week 12, while Los Angeles fell 27-17 on the road against Buffalo. The line moved shortly after going up Sunday, from pick 'em to Chargers -1.


Broncos at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -14, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
Kansas City led Tampa Bay 17-0 in the first quarter and 27-10 midway through the third quarter, then hung on for a 27-24 road win in Week 12. Due to COVID protocols, Denver had no actual quarterbacks available, elevating practice-squad wideout Kendall Hinton, and it showed in a 31-3 home loss to New Orleans.

Presumably, the Broncos will have starting QB Drew Lock back on the field in Week 13, though it might not matter much against the defending Super Bowl champion. The Chiefs opened -14 at The SuperBook and actually ticked down a notch to -13.5 Sunday night.


Bills at 49ers Odds
Opening line
49ers +3, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
San Francisco notched a surprising 23-20 road victory over the Los Angeles Rams, winning on a last-second field goal. Buffalo prepped for the Week 13 Monday nighter with a 27-17 home win over the L.A. Chargers.

"We opened Bills -3 and are now at Bills -3 (even)," Murray said, before taking note of the new COVID regulation in Santa Clara County, Calif., that could keep this game from being played on the Niners' home field. "This game will be action at our book regardless of where the game takes place. The 49ers are getting healthy and are probably better than people think right now, but the public will be all over the Bills here."

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Betting Tips for Week 13: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Yeah, we know the Steelers have a game to play before facing Washington. But there are more potential negatives than positives that will influence the Week 13 odds, so we're grabbing all the points we can with the WFT.

The post-Thanksgiving NFL landscape is a very challenging one for football bettors.

December?s schedule not only brings chilly temperatures and erratic weather but playoff pushes, missing motivation, coaches on the hot seat, a season?s worth of wear and tear, and ? special for 2020 ? COVID-19 outbreaks.

There?s so much more to consider when betting the NFL Week 13 odds. But despite all those additional influences, the best NFL betting strategy remains: get the best of the number. That means knowing when to pull the trigger on your wagers.

These are our best NFL betting tips for the Week 13 lines to bet now, and the lines to bet later.

Washington Football Team (+10) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Now

Thanks to Baltimore?s COVID outbreak, Washington catches Pittsburgh on a short Week 13 turnaround. The Steelers, who were supposed to battle the Ravens on Thanksgiving Thursday, play their AFC North rivals Tuesday (fingers crossed) leaving little time to prep for a feisty Football Team out of D.C.

As of Sunday night ? two days away from that Ravens-Steelers game ? Washington is catching 10 points on the road in Pittsburgh this Sunday. The Football Team played on Thanksgiving ? a huge win at Dallas ? and now reaps the benefits of that mini bye against the top team in the AFC.

There are not many positives that can come out of the Steelers? Tuesday contest, beyond beating up on a shorthanded Baltimore squad, and that?s not going to be enough to lift this spread any higher. And with a trip to Buffalo in Week 14, Washington gets Pittsburgh in a dreaded sandwich spot: letdown from a wild week and rivalry game and looking ahead to a battle with the Bills.

Take all the points you can with Washington now (also because this line will come off the board come Tuesday). The WFT has covered in four of its last six and is well-rested in Week 13.

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+1): Bet Later

We?ve seen this from the Patriots already this year. New England skitters along and then posts one big win and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. How else can you explain the Pats moving from as big as +2.5 to +1 for their cross-country trip to L.A. this Sunday? Well, besides the Chargers playing shit football?

New England ground out an ugly 20-17 home victory over Arizona in Week 12 and that?s helping push this spread close to a pick?em. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS on the road and fell into a similar situation at Houston in Week 11, fresh off a big home win over Baltimore the following game.

Say what you want about Anthony Lynn ? and people are ? but he does know Bill Belichick very well from his time in the AFC East with the Jets and Bills. The L.A. passing attack can scorch that fancy new turf at SoFi Stadium and New England gives up 9.2 yards per pass attempt on the road?dead last in the NFL.

The Chargers have come up short for sports bettors in five straight but if you?re buying the Bolts at home in Week 13, wait it out and see if you can get a pick (or even points) by the time this game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (Under 42.5): Bet Now

The Burrow-less Bengals looked how we thought they would, putting up only 17 points in a home loss to the New York Giants this past weekend. Cincinnati second-stringer Brandon Allen completed 17 of 29 passes for 136 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Cincinnati was three for 10 on third downs and picked up only 3.4 yards per play in that game, and now takes on a Dolphins squad that's second-best in third-down defense, allowing foes to convert on less than 34 percent of their third-down snaps. On top of that, Miami is a stop unit rooted in havoc, generating 17 takeaways on the year, including two interceptions in Sunday?s victory over the Jets.

Offensively, the Fins aren?t fantastic?no matter which QB is under center. Ryan Fitzpatrick has jumped back into the fray in relief of the injured Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) and may need to lace up that beard one more time in Week 13. Miami has managed a combined 33 points the past two games with an offense in the bottom third of DVOA, per Football Outsiders. If you?re bracing for another boring game, bet the Under now as this total has started to tick down from 43 to 42.5 points.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (Under 53): Bet Later

Derrick Henry ran up one side of the Indianapolis Colts and down the other, helping Tennessee drop 45 points on its divisional rival in Week 12. That ass waxing has inflated this Week 13 total and continues to puff it up with early action on the Over moving the number from 52 to 53 points.

Let?s not take anything away from Henry?s performance this past Sunday but the Browns present a pretty stout ground game as well. Cleveland?s two-headed RB monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is the best rushing combo in the NFL, helping the Browns boast the No. 1 average run yards per game.

There?s no shortage of home run hitters on both sides but the team that wins will be the team that's able to transform all those gains on the ground into sweet, sweet TOP (time of possession), each hoping to protect a suspect stop unit. On top of that, Cleveland could get pass rusher extraordinaire Myles Garrett back from the COVID list in time for Week 13. If you wonder about the Under, chill the F out and let this tick a little higher before you get down.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 13
Matt Blunt

The Thanksgiving holiday has come and gone and it might of took the great run for those highest (fade) and lowest (play on) scoring teams over their past three games, although when fading Kansas City works out on a backdoor touchdown after backing Cleveland loses on giving up a backdoor TD it's got a sick way of feeling worse than 1-1.

This week it suggests cases should be made for fading the Buffalo Bills (33.7 points per game last three) and backing the Denver Broncos (11.7/game).

Tough to make any sort of case for Denver until you have a better understanding of their QB situation, but it could become a point of how many points are too many.

Buffalo's got a Monday Night Football date as small road favorites (Game Played in Arizona) against San Francisco, the defending NFC Champs trying to make a final run at defending their crown.

A 49ers upset gives them games with Washington and Dallas up next before visiting Arizona on Boxing Day (Dec. 26). Interesting game to spend part of the week breaking down for sure.

Last week's Thanksgiving thoughts didn't bring out the best results with Detroit's greasy turkey fingers fumbling the ball away numerous times in that 1st half to be the 9th team with a better record on Thanksgiving to lose in recent years. The Steelers had an opportunity in that role before the game got moved, and aside from really getting screwed for the second time this year, moving the game isn't all bad news for the Steelers (or Ravens).

Both of them get to avoid the ?Thanksgiving Curse? with the game being moved, but who knows how all of this affects these teams in the coming weeks and if the Ravens even find their way into a playoff spot when all is said and done.

At 6-4 SU (pending Wednesday's result), the Ravens and Steelers are still alive in a group of Super Bowl contenders if you want to look back at where Super Bowl participants sat after Thanksgiving week.

Who's Hot

Over the past 10 years, 19 of the 20 teams to make the Super Bowl had four losses or fewer after Thanksgiving.

The shorthanded Ravens are going to have to find a way to be the first to beat Pittsburgh this year on Wednesday to stay in this group of 11 other teams currently.

Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas all coughed up great opportunities to stay in that range this past Sunday, but the lone outlier of the group was that 2011 New York Giants team who were 6-5 SU at this point of the year too.

You can take this a step further to narrow the field for any future thoughts, with 11 of the 20 teams having two or fewer losses at this point. That leaves three teams with Pittsburgh, Kansas City and New Orleans being the selected three, and all three did start out the 2020 campaign with a win in Week 1 so they are all good here too.

Other teams that are just outside this range with three losses, but did start the year with a victory are Seattle, Green Bay, Tennessee and Buffalo.

Where it gets tricky for the Steelers though, is not only do they have all this adversity with the schedule now, but they are the only one of those Top 3 teams that didn't play a postseason game last season and that may be problematic.

Recommending two of the top three teams currently isn't exactly rocket science though - something I hope former Lions head coach Matt Patricia still remembers ? but for those that maybe needed a slight nudge in firing on one of those three organizations, the ?are who they are? post-Thanksgiving test certainly matches up with what we've seen on the field from the Steelers, Chiefs, and Saints.

You do have to wonder if the lack of that second bye week throws a wrinkle into things this year with the potential for a seed further down to ride an early upset all the way through, and all four of those three loss teams lurking just behind were playoff competitors a season ago as well.

Finding the right price and learning to stomach the weaknesses Seattle, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Tennessee currently have out there may end up being a nice portfolio to have in a month's time.

The ?State Farm Super Bowl? I predicted we would see last year might have been a year too early, and with a Chiefs/Packers win conference parlay currently in the 10/1 range for this year, sticking with that thought would have to be a starting point for me right now.


Who's Not

Fading teams on the Money-Line after they played the New York Jets this year is 1-9 SU

Had another thing lined up and ready to go here but was bitten by the bye weeks again, so I'll save it for next week when two teams will fit the script. So went with a flipped around version of saying that nine of the previous 10 NFL teams to beat the New York Jets have gone on to win their next game as well.

It was actually on a 9-0 SU run until the Los Angeles Chargers lost in Buffalo last Sunday, yet another thing the Chargers can't seem to do right this year. Literally every other team to beat the Jets has turned it into at least a two-game winning streak now but them. It really is tough to watch.

Again, this isn't a whole lot of help this week in recommending the Miami Dolphins on the ML (-55) as a double digit home favorite vs. Cincinnati, but the Jets have a really interesting schedule going forward to keep this idea of riding the team that just played them (and likely beat them) for a second straight week.

N.Y. Jets Schedule

Week 13 - vs. Las Vegas
Week 14 - at Seattle
Week 15 - at L.A. Rams
Week 16 - vs. Cleveland
Week 17 - at New England

Las Vegas is visiting New York this week before hosting Indianapolis next week, a two-week stretch for the Raiders where two victories could put them right back where they want to be in the AFC playoff race. The ML option on the Raiders in that Colts contest will be a reasonable price to consider.

The next opponent for the Jets would be Seattle, who visits Washington the following week, ending a three-week run where the Seahawks will be heavily favored each time. Not too applicable unless you are laying the price in some sort of ML parlay.

Who could you follow the rest of the season?

Week 14 - Raiders vs. Colts
Week 15 - Seahawks vs. Washington
Week 16 - L.A. Rams at Seattle
Week 17 - Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh

Interestingly enough though, after Seattle visits Washington, they host the Rams the following week, with LA being in that positive post-NYJ role for that game in Week 16. Could it be that Seattle gets to feel the sting from both ends of this NY Jets run in consecutive weeks? You know that Rams/Seahawks game will have playoff implications of some sort.

Finally, the only other NFL team to still have a game this year after facing the Jets will be Cleveland, who visits the Big Apple in Week 16. The Browns host Pittsburgh in Week 17 in a game that might actually have more meaning than in the past with only one bye offered in each conference, and Cleveland being wherever they may be in the Wildcard standing at the time.

Definitely some reasonable spots to consider there, and for those that are curious about the ATS record of these post-NYJ games, those teams are 6-4 ATS this number with the Chargers being the fourth defeat.

Obviously the other three came in a role Miami could find themselves in this week with that big number vs Cincinnati ? win the game outright but fail to cover ? but if you are looking for any addition to a weekly ML parlay, taking the team that just beat the Jets is a good place to start.