CNOTES 2023-2024 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS + NEWS AND NOTES

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Power 6 college basketball teams that have played the hardest schedules:
6) Tennessee
8) Marquette
9) Texas A&M
11) Purdue
25) Kansas
28) Florida

Quote of the Day
“So you’re going to tell me somebody’s sitting in the committee room and doesn’t think that the Georgia team is not one of the best four teams? I’m not sure they’re in the right profession, because it’s a really good football team, it’s a really talented football team, it’s a really balanced football team. They have to make that decision. But it’s the best four teams, and that’s critical.”
Georgia coach Kirby Smart

Sunday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Nick Saban used to coach?

Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

Friday’s quiz
Tampa Bay is the last team that beat the Cowboys in Dallas; they Dallas 19-3 in last year’s season opener.

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Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday……..​

— I can’t process it yet, but next year, the Pac-12 will no longer exist; the greedy humans who run college sports are screwing things up royally.
Cal and Stanford in the ACC? The A in ACC stands for Atlantic, as in ocean.
Creighton is in the Big East; it is also in Omaha, Nebraska, nowhere near the east.
Oregon State/Washington State got left behind; they’ll basically hook up with the Mountain West teams for scheduling purposes. Good luck to those coaches during recruiting season.
Gonzaga has now won 16 games in a row vs Pac-12 teams; they play Washington next week, possibly the last chance ever for that streak to end.
— It was a rough day for some favorites in college basketball:

NC-Wilmington 80, Kentucky 73
Seahawks led by 14 in first half; Kentucky was up 6 with 12:51 left.
Kentucky played eight guys, including five freshmen and a sophomore.

Georgia Tech 72, Duke 68
Duke lost two road games this week, by total of nine points.
Georgia Tech shot 66.7% inside the arc.

Wisconsin 75, Marquette 64
Badgers beat their in-state rivals for third year in a row.
Marquette is 6-2; they’ve played the 8th-hardest schedule in the country.

Drexel 57, Villanova 55
Villanova was 10-14 on foul line, Drexel 1-3, but Villanova never led.
Villanova is 0-3 vs other colleges in Philadelphia, 6-0 vs everyone else.

Bucknell 76, Penn State 67
Bucknell is 3-7; they lost by 24 to freakin’ Marist.
Bucknell was 10-21 on the arc, Penn State 4-19.
There were some dramatic finishes Saturday:

Vermont 66, Yale 65
Yale led 65-60 with 0:03.5 left in the game.
Vermont hit a 4-point play at the buzzer for an unlikely win.

LaSalle 93, Penn 82 OT
LaSalle coach Dunphy coached Penn for 18 years.
Explorers hit a 3-pointer with 0:01 left for the dramatic win.

TCU 84, Georgetown 83, OT
Horned Frogs hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer for the walk-off win.
TCU is 7-0, but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the whole country so far.
— Word of the Day: Fustercluck- a euphemism for a similar word, which means a complete failure and mismanaged situation.
I was thinking about college football when that word came to mind.

Liberty 49, New Mexico State 35
Game was 35-35 after three quarters.
Liberty gained 712 yards on 71 plays, over 10 yards/play.
Flames ran ball 45 times for 393 yards.
Liberty is 13-0 SU/9-4 ATS this season.

Washington 34, Oregon 31
Washington beat Oregon twice this season, 36-33/34-31.
Washington outgained the Ducks, 482-363
Huskies were 10-15 on third down, Oregon 3-10
Huskies’ last four wins were by 7-2-3-3 points.

Texas 49, Oklahoma State 21
First four Texas drives: 24 plays, 292 yards, 28 points.
Longhorns led 35-14 at halftime.
Texas was 10-16 on third down, OSU 3-10
Total yardage: Texas 662, Cowboys 281

Miami OH 23, Toledo 14
Miami OH led 10-8 at halftime.
Red Hawks are 9-0 if they score 23+ points.
Miami covered nine of its last 11 games.
Toledo’s 11-game winning streak comes to an end.

Boise State 44, UNLV 20
Boise State wins Mountain West, 19 days after they fired their coach.
Broncos’ first six drives: 29 plays, 297 yards, 31 points.
Boise ran ball 51 times for 301 yards.
UNLV is still headed to its first bowl since 2013.

Alabama 27, Georgia 24
Georgia’s 29-game winning streak comes to an end.
Alabama is 8-1 in its last nine games against the Dawgs.
Georgia ran the ball 31 times for only 78 yards.
The big question? Do both of these teams get in the 4-team playoff?

SMU 26, Tulane 14
SMU turned ball over on three of its first five drives.
Mustangs kicked a field goal on four of last five drives.
SMU won its last nine games overall; they’re 8-1 in last nine vs Tulane.
Tulane coach Fritz is rumored to be bolting to the Houston Cougars.

Troy 49, Appalachian State 23
Troy led 21-17 after three quarters.
Troy’s first three drives: 18 plays, 49 yards, 3 punts.
Troy’s last eight drives: 42 plays, 414 yards, 42 points.
Trojans win Sun Belt title for second year in a row.

Michigan 26, Iowa 0
A Cedar Rapids golf simulator/bar offered free beer until Iowa scored a point during this game, which means their patrons got to drink for free for over three hours.
Michigan won/covered last four meetings with Iowa, by total of 105-20.
Wolverines won the Big 14 title for the third year in a row.

Florida State 16, Louisville 6
Florida State played its #3 quarterback in this game (8-21/55 passing).
Seminoles are now 5-1 in ACC championship games.
In its previous four games, Louisville had scored 33.5 ppg.
Florida State/Washington were both underdogs this weekend, despite being 12-0, and they both won SU.

— Some quick NFL notes:
Arizona Cardinals have lost the field position battle in every game. No bueno.
Minnesota Vikings have won the field position battle in only one game.
Rams have won the field position battle in only two games, the two vs Arizona.
In their last four games, Carolina Panthers have scored only 3 TD’s on 35 drives; they’ve got a minus-6 turnover ratio in those games, with zero takeaways. Panthers did score a TD on a punt return.
Joe Flacco will be the Browns’ 4th different starting QB Sunday, in their 12th game.
Houston Texans are 6-3 in their last nine games, with losses by 2-2-3 points.
In their last three games, Detroit Lions have allowed 12 TD’s on 29 drives.

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Six of the better bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Dec 23: Armed Forces Bowl- James Madison vs Air Force
— Dec 23: Hawai’i Bowl- Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State
— Dec 26: Guaranteed Rate Bowl- Kansas vs UNLV
— Dec 30: Orange Bowl- Georgia vs Florida State
— Jan 1: Rose Bowl- Michigan vs Alabama
— Jan 1: Sugar Bowl; Washington vs Texas

Quote of the Day
“I tried to impress upon them what it was to be a professional and how tough this game is to play. And I told them almost every day how good there were.”
Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland

Monday’s quiz
Who did UNLV play the last time they were in a bowl game (2013)?

Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Dolphins in 2005-06.

Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..​

49ers 42, Eagles 19
— 49ers’ first two drives: 6 plays, minus-6 yards, two punts.
— 49ers’ next six drives: 47 plays, 450 yards, 42 points.
— WR Samuel had 7 touches for 138 yards, three TD’s.
— San Francisco averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran ball 18 times for only 46 yards.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.

Colts 31, Titans 28 OT
— Titans kicked FG in OT, then Colts drive 75 yards for game-winning TD.
— Tennessee led 17-7 with 8:00 left in first half.
— Colts blocked punt for TD to take 22-17 lead with 0:19 left in 3rd quarter.
— Titans blocked PAT, ran it back for two points to cut lead to 22-19.
— Colts won last four games, are tied for last AFC playoff slot.
— QB Minshew is 5-3 as a starter this season.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— Indianapolis team total: over 9-2-1

Chargers 6, Patriots 0
— Chargers snap a 7-game losing streak vs New England.
— LA gained only 241 yards, kicked two 38-yard field goals.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Patriots lost last three games, 10-6/10-7/6-0.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England lost eight of their last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— AFC East teams are 10-18 ATS outside the division.

Lions 33, Saints 28
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Two of Lions’ four TD drives were short; 17, 26 yards.
— Rookie TE Laporta caught nine passes for 140 yards and a TD.
— Lions are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Detroit led 21-0 with 8:15 left in first quarter.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of last three games.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 113 yards, 7 points.
— Saints in second half: 38 plays, 254 yards, 21 points.

Falcons 13, Jets 8
— Falcons’ first 4 drives: 16 plays, 23 yards and a safety for the Jets
— Falcons’ only TD drive was 47 yards in second quarter.
— Atlanta was 4-14 on third down, Jets 2-15.
— Atlanta won, but Jets outgained them, 259-194.
— Jets lost their last five games, scoring 9 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 68 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog

Cardinals 24, Steelers 10
— Game had two weather delays; one for 30 minutes, one for 53 minutes.
— Arizona RB Conner ran ball for 105 yards, two TD’s against his old team.
— Cardinals had three TD drives: 99-21-33 yards.
— Arizona was 10-17 on third down, Pittsburgh 4-11.
— QB Pickett hurt his ankle; backup Trubisky played most of game.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10 points.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Nine of last 11 Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.

Dolphins 45, Commanders 15
— Dolphisn’ first six drives: 39 plays, 338 yards, 38 points.
— Miami scored on pick-6 to take 17-0 lead late in first quarter,
— WR Hill caught five passes for 145 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins scored 31+ points in 7 of 9 wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— In last three games, Commanders gave up 31-45-45 points.
— Washington lost nine of last 11 games SU (2-5 ATS last seven)
— In those 11 games, Commanders were outscored 175-79 in 1st half.
— Opponents’ team total: over 10-3

Texans 22, Broncos 17
— Broncos were minus-3 in turnovers (+11 in previous four games)
— Wilson threw an INT on three of Denver’s last four drives.
— Denver was 0-11 on third down, Texans were 4-16.
— Broncos are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Texans’ first four drives: 25 plays, 192 yards, 13 points.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.

Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3 points.
— This was first game in six weeks that Panthers scored 2+ offensive TD’s.
— Carolina drove 75 yards, scored 8 points with 5:02 left for back-door cover.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-52 in first half.
— 2nd quarter of this game was played in a monsoon.
— Evans caught 75-yard TD pass that put Bucs ahead, 14-10.
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Buccaneers won seven of last eight games vs Carolina.

Rams 36, Browns 19
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— Rookie WR Nacua caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD.
— LA outscored Browns 12-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Flacco was 23-44/254 passing; he is 4th QB to start for Browns TY.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Cleveland scored TD to make score 20-19 in 3rd quarter; they missed PAT.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Packers 27, Chiefs 19
— Chiefs are 2-3 in last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Chiefs’ first four drives: 47 plays, 260 yards, 19 points.
— Chiefs’ last three drives: 15 plays, 65 yards, no points.
— KC is 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay’s first four drives: 36 plays, 255 yards, 21 points.
— Packers held Chiefs to 5.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 34-69 on third down.

— Appalachian State 69, Auburn 64- Tough day for SEC, with Miss State, Auburn getting upset. Tigers were +16 on boards in this game, but shot 3-27 on arc.

— Southern 60, Mississippi State 59- Southern ended game on a 15-2 run.

— Clemson 79, Pitt 70- Tigers are 7-0, with three top 100 wins.
— Congrats to former big league manager Jim Leyland, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame Sunday. Leyland won two AL pennants with Detroit, won the 1997 World Seres with the Marlins- he also led the Pirates to the playoffs three years in a row (1990-92).

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Odds to get the #1 pick in this year’s baseball draft:
18.3%- A’s, Royals, Rockies
14.7%- White Sox
8.3%- Cardinals
6.1%- Angels
4.3%- Mets
3.0%- Pirates
The lottery for the draft is Tuesday at 5:30.

Quote of the Day
“I’m not offended at all by dumb blonde jokes, because I know I’m not dumb, and I know I’m not a blonde.”
Dolly Parton

Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; who was LSU’s coach that year?

Monday’s quiz
UNLV lost 36-14 to North Texas in the 2013 Heart of Texas Bowl, the last time the Rebels were in a bowl game.

Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Miami Dolphins in 2005-06.

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Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

Bengals 34, Jaguars 31, OT
Backup QB Browning was 32-37/354 passing for his first NFL win.
McPherson kicked a 48-yard FG in overtime for the win.
Chase caught 11 passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Bengals were 8-14 on third down, Jacksonville 6-15.
Jaguars lost QB Lawrence late in game with an ankle injury.
Jaguars scored four touchdowns on their first seven drives.
Jaguars’ last four drives: 27 plays, 111 yards, 3 points.
Under Pederson, Jags are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.

— There are two Monday night games next week, both at 8:15:
Packers @ Giants, Titans @ Miami

— In their 6-0 loss to the Chargers Sunday, New England’s average starting position on their 10 drives was their own 14-yard line, which is terrible field position.
In all the NFL games since 2000, counting playoff games, this was the worst average starting field position by any team, in any one game.
New England is also the only team since 1938 to give up 10 or fewer points three games in a row, and lose all three games.

— Bears beat Minnesota 12-10 last Monday night; in that game, Justin Fields’ average pass length was 2.7 yards downfield, the shortest by any QB in a game since Tony Romo in 2010.
He threw 12 screen passes; only 19 of his 37 passes were beyond the line of scrimmage.

— In their two post-bye games, Atlanta Falcons haven’t allowed a touchdown on 22 drives; opponents have tried 8 field goals on those 22 drives, but haven’t scored a TD, and Atlanta won both games.

— In their last three games, Denver Broncos are only 8-37 on third down.

— Tennessee Titans lost in overtime Sunday; they’re 4-8, and fired their special teams coach Monday. Titans had a punt blocked for a TD Sunday; their punter also lost a fumble, and hurt his knee trying to recover it- he’s out for the year.
Tennessee also blocked a Colts’ PAT and ran it back for two points, but they lost, and there have to be scapegoats, so the special teams coach was told to take a hike, after six years with the Titans.

— Steelers’ QB Kenny Pickett had ankle surgery Monday, to “accelerate the healing process” on his sprained right ankle, according to Mike Tomlin.
— Word of the Day: Anagram- a word or phrase that is made by switching around the letters of another word or phrase.
For example, “listen” is an anagram for “silent”
“ocean” is an anagram for “canoe”

— Random trend for the upcoming bowl games:
Over the last five years, bowl underdogs who lost their conference championship game have gone 15-9 against the spread in their bowl games.

— Hotel rates for Super Bowl weekend (February 9-12) in Las Vegas:
Aria $1,467/night.
Bellagio $1,600/night.
Cosmopolitan $1,600/night.
Fountainblue $1,567/night.
Venetian $1,199/night.
Yikes.

— Wealthiest owners in pro sports:
$100B- Steve Ballmer, LA Clippers
$67B- Rob Walton, Denver Broncos
$32B- Miriam Adelson, new owner of Dallas Mavericks
$21B- Dan Gilbert, Cleveland Cavaliers
$20B- David Tepper, Carolina Panthers

— In their first 34 years of existence, the Minnesota Timberwolves spent a total of 10 days as the #1-seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. Thats 10 days in 34 years.
This season, Minnesota is 15-4, the #1-seed in the West; they’ve spent more time as the #1 seed in the West this season than they did in their first 34 years of existence.

— 23 years ago, Mark Cuban bought the Dallas Mavericks for $285M; he just sold them for $3.5B, plus he retains control of basketball operations in the deal.
There are some conspiracy theories as to why this happened:
The Adelson family wants to own a casino(s) in Texas, once Texas legalizes gambling.
If that doesn’t happen, Adelsons might move the Mavericks to Las Vegas
Cuban might be thinking of running for President.
We’ll see what happens, but it must be nice to be so freakin’ rich.

— I mentioned a few weeks ago how I was intrigued by Rice QB JT Daniels as a longshot NFL Draft prospect; he’s played at several different colleges, but now word comes out of Houston that Daniels has been advised to medically retire from football because of all the concussions he’s had over the years.
Daniels told ESPN that he plans to get into coaching; he knows a lot of people after a playing career at four different schools over six years. Networking will help him get his first job.

— When Florida State got left out of the college football playoff, it cost the ACC $6M from the money that the playoff generates; 14 teams in the ACC, that’s $428,571 per school.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 15


NAVY is 64-30 ATS (31 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.




NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

NCAAF

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Army @ Navy

Army

The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Army's last 17 games when playing Navy

Army is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Navy

Navy

The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Navy's last 17 games when playing Army

Navy is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing Army

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[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Worst NFL teams against the spread:
2-10- New England
2-9-1- New Orleans
3-8-1- Carolina
4-8- Atlanta, Buffalo
4-7-1- Denver, Giants, Jets
5-7-1- Washington (Chargers 5-7)

Quote of the Day
“The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
Theodore Roosevelt

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Matthew Stafford play his college football?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.

Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; Ed Orgeron was LSU’s coach that year.

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Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..​

— Juan Soto got traded to the Bronx; he and Trent Grisham go to New York for P Michael King and four stiffs. It is a cruddy night for Padre fans, for sure.

Which reminds me of a night………
— New Year’s Eve, 1974, I was 15, the A’s had won the last three World Series, which made me pretty freakin’ happy.
Way back then, before the Internet, we had a station on our cable TV setup that basically was the Internet. During the day, it was a stock market ticker, then at 7pm on weeknights and all the time on weekends, it was a sports ticker, a really good one. Bright blue background with white typing on it; spent lot of time watching channel 3. Lot of time.
For me, channel 3 was must-watch TV; had it on all the time, but on New Year’s Eve 1974, it gave me some very bad news.
I had gone bowling in the neighborhood with friends and came home around 10:00, flipped on the TV, clicked on channel 3 and there it was:
Catfish Hunter signs as a free agent with New York. Catfish was my favorite ballplayer, a great pitcher, who I adopted as my favorite player long before he was great, because they spelled his name wrong on his rookie baseball card.
Not good, the end of the dynasty for my favorite team. My favorite player going to play for a team that was on TV all the time where I lived. Muy mal (very bad).
Tonight in San Diego, there are kids who are sad because the Padres are going down the drain- Josh Hader will be the next one to go, and if you thought the Padres underachieved last year, wait til next summer.

— Arizona Diamondbacks signed P Eduardo Rodriguez to a 4-year, $80M deal; Rodriguez was 13-9, 3.30 in 152 IP last year. He vetoed a trade to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, so he’ll get a warm welcome when the Diamondbacks visit Chavez Ravine.

— Baltimore Orioles signed closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13M deal.

— Houston Astros signed C Victor Caratini to a 2-year, $12M deal, which means that Martin Maldonado’s 5-year run as Houston’s catcher is likely over.

— In horse racing news, Belmont Stakes will be held in Saratoga next year, because they’re renovating Belmont Park. Chances are the 2025 Belmont will also be in Saratoga, which is 25 miles north of Armadillo World HQ, a 4-5 hour drive from Belmont Park.

— Word of the Day: Infatuation- an intense but short-lived passion or admiration for someone or something.

— Dallas Cowboys’ coach Mike McCarthy was diagnosed with an acute case of appendicitis, had an operation Wednesday, but expects to coach against the Eagles Sunday.
I’ll say this: 30 years ago, I had an emergency appendectomy; they told me to avoid physical contact after I went home, because it took a while for everything to heal, so I’m guessing that McCarthy will be coaching from the press box, at least for this week.
Any big collision on the sideline could be really, really bad for McCarthy.

— Zach Wilson is starting at QB for the Jets this weekend, when they host Houston. Jets added QB Brett Rypien from Seattle earlier this week, but Wilson will get the start.

— Memphis 85, VCU 80 OT
VCU led by 10 in the first half; they’ve lost four of their last five games.
Memphis outscored the Rams 23-15 on the foul line.

— Marquette 86, Texas 65
Marquette made 14-30 on the arc; they led 42-28 at halftime.
Marquette is 7-2, having played the #7 schedule in the country.
First true road game for Texas, which is 6-2, against schedule #264.

— Minnesota 76, Nebraska 65
Gophers trailed 39-24 at halftime.

— Clemson 72, South Carolina 67
Both teams came into the game with 7-0 records.
Gamecocks led by 11 with 14:20 left in the game.

— San Francisco 73, Vanderbilt 60- First time this year teams from WCC-SEC met; good road win for the Dons, who made 13-29 on the arc, and never trailed.

— Drake 75, Saint Louis 69
Billikens led by 19 early in second half.
Drake outscored Saint Louis 18-6 over the final 4:19.

— Fort Wayne 70, Southern Indiana 57- Kid on Fort Wayne was playing and his sneaker fell off; he had the shoe in his hand while he guarded the guy with the ball, and when the kid took a jumper, he blocked the shot with the shoe in his right hand.

— Wednesday’s UNLV at Dayton basketball game was canceled after an on-campus shooting at UNLV, where three people were murdered and others were wounded.

— Gambling is difficult; Wednesday night there were 11 college basketball teams that won, who at one time trailed that game by 10+ points.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

FCS

FURMAN VS MONTANA

Dunkel Ratings: Furman 71.762; Montana 85.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Montana by 14; 36
Vegas Line & Total: Montana by 17; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+17); Under

VILLANOVA AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Date: December 9
Time: 12:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 74.092; South Dakota State 102.629
Dunkel Line & Total: South Dakota State by 28 1/2; 56
Vegas Line & Total: South Dakota State by 20; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-20); Over

NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT SOUTH DAKOTA

Date: December 9
Time: 2:30 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 89.950; South Dakota 70.571
Dunkel Line & Total: North Dakota State by 19 1/2; 45
Vegas Line & Total: North Dakota State by 6 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-6 1/2); Under

ALBANY AT IDAHO

Date: December 9
Time: 10:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 72.335; Idaho 78.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Idaho by 6; 54
Vegas Line & Total: Idaho by 4; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-4); Over

 

[Udog]

BOWL SEASON

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
— Patriots 21, Steelers 18- Pittsburgh loses consecutive games to 2-10 teams.
— Game had total of 30; it went over the total in second quarter.
— Lakers 133, Pelicans 89- Lakers outscored NO 43-17 in 3rd quarter.
— Pacers 128, Bucks 119- Indiana plays the Lakers Saturday in IST final.
— Iowa State 90, Iowa 65- Cyclones led 47-29 at halftime.
— Duke hired Penn State DC Manny Diaz as its new football coach.

Quote of the Day
“The problem is tampering. And we could fix it easily if they’d let football people fix it. But they usually don’t listen to us.”
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, talking about the transfer portal

Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; what well-known character actor plays the manager of the Tigers?

Thursday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.

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Friday’s Den: NBA trends to think about…….​

NBA trends (thru Wednesday)

Hawks (9-11):
— lost four of their last five games (0-5 ATS).
— 0-7 ATS as a home favorite
— over 7-2 at home

Celtics (15-5):
— won 10 of last 13 games SU (2-7 ATS last nine)
— 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 10-4 last 14 games.

Nets (11-9):
— won five of their last six games.
— 9-3 ATS at home, 6-2 on road.
— over 3-1 last four home games.

Hornets (6-13):
— lost four of their last five games.
— 2-8 ATS at home.
— over 7-2 on the road

Bulls (6-14)
— won/covered their last three games.
— 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 5-1 last six games.

Cavaliers (12-9):
— won four of their last five games
— 5-8 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.

Mavericks (12-8):
— 3-5 SU in their last 8 games.
— 4-6 ATS as home favorites, 3-1 as road favorites.
— over 6-2 last eight home games.

Nuggets (14-8):
— 0-7 ATS last seven games as road favorites.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.
— over 3-1 last four games.

Pistons (2-19):
— lost their last 16 games (6-10 ATS).
— 4-6 ATS as a home underdog, 5-5 as a road dog.
— over 7-1 last eight road games

Warriors (10-11):
— 4-9 in last 13 games SU
— 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
— 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Rockets (9-9):
— 8-1 ATS last nine home games.
— 12-3 ATS last 15 games overall.
— under 9-3 last dozen games.

Pacers (11-8):
— over 16-3
— 4-5 ATS as a home favorite, 3-0 as a home dog.
— 3-0 ATS first night of back/back

Clippers (10-10):
— 7-3 last ten games SU.
— 3-6 ATS on the road.
— under 7-0 last seven home games.

Lakers (13-9):
— won/covered five of last six games.
— 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 8-3 at home.

Grizzlies (6-14):
— won three of last four games (4-0 ATS)
— 6-2 ATS last eight road games.
— under 4-0 last four home games

Heat (12-9):
— lost four of last six games SU.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 4-0 last four home games.

Bucks (15-6):
— won five of last six games (3-1 ATS last four)
— 5-1 ATS last six road games.
— over 7-3 road games.

Timberwolves (16-4)
— won 15 of last 17 games (5-6 ATS last 11)
— 8-3 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five home games.

Pelicans (12-10):
— won/covered three of last four games
— 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.

Knicks (12-8):
— won three of last four games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a favorite, 5-4-1 as an underdog
— over 6-2 last eight games

Thunder (13-7):
— 2-3 SU their last five games.
— 8-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-2 as an underdog.
— over 6-3 last nine games

Magic (14-7):
— won last seven home games (6-1 ATS).
— 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 8-1 last nine games.

76ers (13-7):
— 3-4 last six games SU.
— 10-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-3 as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven games.

Suns (12-9):
— lost three of last four games (0-4 ATS)
— 6-9 ATS as a favorite.
— over 9-1 home games

Trailblazers (6-14):
— covered five of their last six games,
— 2-5 ATS as a home underdog, 8-5 as a road dog.
— under 5-1 last six games

Kings (11-8):
— 3-4 SU last seven games (2-5 ATS)
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven home games

Spurs (3-17):
— lost their last 15 games (4-2 ATS last six)
— 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 8-2 at home

Raptors (9-12):
— lost four of last five games SU
— 4-6 ATS after a win, 6-4 after a loss.
— over 4-1 last five home games.

Jazz (7-14):
— 2-9 ATS on the road.
— 8-2 ATS at home
— over 7-3 at home

Wizards (3-17):
— 5-2 ATS last seven games.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 3-0 last three games.

NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.

So far this season, it has happened 17 times, so 34 games; underdogs are 22-12 ATS in those games, over 19-15 (9-8 first night, 10-7 second night)

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Army vs Navy (@ Foxboro, MA)
Army (5-6)
— Army won its last three games, after a 2-6 start.
— Army upset Air Force, can win Commander-in-Chief trophy here.
— Cadets are minus-15 in turnovers in losses, +8 in wins.
— This season, Cadets are 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
— Army gained less than 300 yards in six of last eight games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 76 starts back on offensive line; they’ve changed offenses.
— junior QB has run ball 188 times, thrown it 106 times.
— three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— since 2016, Army is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in bowls.


Navy (5-6)
— Navy scored 18 or less points in five of last six games.
— Navy is 16-29 SU last 3+ years; new coach was DC last year.
— Navy pitched a shutout in three of their five wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— senior QB started 8 games LY.
— Navy is 14-8-1 ATS last 23 games as an underdog.
— Navy is 3-3 ATS this year, in games with single digit spread.
— Last six games, Middies are +7 in turnovers.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.


— Under is 16-1 in last 17 series games (went over LY)
— Army won five of last seven meetings.
— Underdogs covered seven of last nine series games.




NCAAF
Weather report

Week 15

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Some spreads for bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Utah (-7) vs Northwestern
— San Jose State (-9.5) vs Coastal Carolina
— West Virginia (-3) vs North Carolina
— Louisville (-7.5) vs USC
— Kansas State (-4) vs NC State
— Arizona (-3.5) vs Oklahoma

Quote of the Day
“In order to see the fruit, you’ve gotta toil for it. I think too many people don’t want to toil for it. They just want to walk out here and think that they’re going to make plays and think that they’re going to perform at a high level. I think we need to have more people who want to work for it, not expect it to be handed to them.”
Steelers’ safety Minkah Fitzpatrick

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014; who did they play in that series?

Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; JK Simmons plays the manager of the Tigers.

Thursday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

***************************************

Saturday’s Den: NHL trends……..​

NHL trends (thru Thursday, Dec. 7)
I’ll try to post this once a week……..

Anaheim 10-16
— 1-10 in their last 11 games overall.
— lost last five road tilts.
— over 4-0 last four road games

Arizona 13-10-2
— won five of their last six games.
— 8-5 at home, 5-5-2 on road.
— over 6-3 last nine road games

Boston 17-5-3
— 8-4-3 last 15 games, after a 9-1 start
— 9-2-1 at home, 8-3-2 on road.
— over 5-1 last six road games

Buffalo 11-14-1
— 1-9 after a win, 8-6 after a loss
— 5-7 at home, 6-7-2 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight home games

Calgary 11-12-3
— 7-5 in their last 12 games
— 6-6-1 at home, 5-7-2 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten home games

Carolina 14-11-1
— lost last three games, by combined 11-4.
— 8-2-1 at home, 6-9 on road.
— under 4-1 last five on road; over last five at home.

Chicago 8-16-1
— lost four of their last five games
— 4-6-1 at home, 4-10 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games

Colorado 16-8-2
— lost four of last five games
— 9-3 at home, 7-5-2 on road.
— under 3-1 last four home games

Columbus 8-15-5
— lost four of their last five games
— 6-7-2 at home, 2-8-3 on road.
— under 3-1 last four road games

Dallas 15-7-1
— 3-5 in their last eight games
— 6-4-1 at home, 9-3-2 on road.
— over 9-3 last 12 games
— 14-4 if they score more than two goals

Detroit 14-7-4
— won six of their last eight games
— 8-3-3 at home, 6-4-1 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games

Edmonton 10-12-1
— won last five games, scoring 27 goals.
— 6-4-1 at home, 4-8 on road.
— over 7-2 last nine games

Florida 15-8-2
— 5-5 in their last ten games.
— 8-4 at home, 7-4-2 on road.
— under 5-0 last five road games

Los Angeles 16-4-3
— won eight of last nine games.
— 5-4-3 at home, 11-0 on road.
— under 12-3 last fifteen games

Minnesota 9-11-4
— won four of last five games.
— 5-4-2 at home, 4-7-2 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games
Montreal 11-12-3
— lost three of last four games.
— 6-8-1 at home, 5-4-2 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games

Nashville 14-12
— won nine of last 11 games.
— 9-6 at home, 5-6 on road.
— over 5-1 last six home games

New Jersey 13-10-1
— won five of last six games
— 5-6-1 at home, 8-4 on road.
— over 18-6

NY Islanders 11-7-7
— won three of last four games.
— 5-3-5 at home, 6-4-2 on road.
— over 7-0 last seven road games

NY Rangers 18-5-1
— won 10 of last 13 games
— 8-2 at home, 10-3-1 on road.
— 5-0 after a loss this season.
— over 3-0 last three games

Ottawa 10-11
— lost four of their last six games.
— 8-8 at home, 2-3 on road.
— 8-2 scoring 4+ goals, 2-9 scoring less than 4.

Philadelphia 14-10-2
— won their last three games, giving up 5 goals.
— 6-6-1 at home, 8-4-1 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight games

Pittsburgh 11-11-3
— lost six of last eight games
— 5-6-1 at home, 6-5-2 on road.
— under 5-0 last five road games

St Louis 13-11-1
— 4-9 after a win, 9-2 after a loss.
— 7-4 at home, 6-7-1 on road.
— under 4-0 last four road games

San Jose 8-17-2
— won five of last seven games
— 5-6-2 at home, 3-11 on road.
— over 4-0 last four games

Seattle 8-13-6
— lost last six games, scoring 10 goals.
— 4-7-1 at home, 4-6-5 on road.
— under 3-0 last three games

Tampa Bay 12-11-5
— lost five of last seven games.
— 8-3-3 at home, 4-8-2 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— 1-5 in OT/SO

Toronto 13-6-4
— won three of last four games.
— 7-4-1 at home, 6-2-3 on road.
— over 10-3 last thirteen games
— 11-1 scoring 4+ goals, 2-9 scoring 3 or less.

Vancouver 17-9-1
— 0-5 after last five wins, 5-0 after last five losses.
— 9-3-1 at home, 8-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five home games

Vegas 17-5-5
— won three of last four games.
— 9-2-2 at home, 8-3-3 on road.
— under 11-3 at home

Washington 12-8-3
— lost last three games, outscored 15-5
— 7-4-2 at home, 5-4-1 on road.
— under 9-4 on road

Winnipeg 15-8-2
— won last three games, giving up four goals.
— 8-5-1 at home, 7-3-1 on road.
— under 7-1 last eight games

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 9​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
ARMY at NAVY	03:00 PM	NAVY +2.5 U 28.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
12/09/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
12/02/2023	8-8-0	50.00%	-400	Detail
12/01/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

DECEMBER'S CFB BEST BETS THRU THE BOWL AND CHAMPIONSHIP !

12/09/2023.......................1 - 1..........................50.00%................................- 0.50
12/02/2023.......................5 - 4..........................55.55%................................+ 3.00
12/01/2023.......................2 - 2..........................50.00%................................- 1.00

TOTALS............................8 - 7...........................53.33%................................+ 1.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Last six Heisman Trophy winners, how they did in their bowl games:
2022- Caleb Williams, USC- L45-46
2021- Bryce Young, Alabama- W27-16/L18-33
2020- DeVonta Smith, Alabama- W31-14/W52-24
2019- Joe Burrow, LSU- W63-28
2018- Kyler Murray, Oklahoma- L34-45
2017- Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma- L48-54, OT

Quote of the Day
“Life is made up of small pleasures. Happiness is made up of those tiny successes. The big ones comes too infrequently, and if you don’t collect all these tiny successes, the big ones don’t really mean anything.”
Norman Lear

Sunday’s quiz
Which college basketball team is known as the Anteaters?

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014; they lost to Kansas City in that series.

Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; JK Simmons plays the manager of the Tigers.

*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..​

— Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700M contract with the Dodgers, setting all kinds of records for the biggest contract ever; a lot of the money will be in deferred payments, so LA has some ability to sign starting pitching- they’re little short on that right now.
There are stories how the Angels made $10-20M a year in advertisements when Ohtani was in Anaheim, so the Dodgers will get some of that $70M a year back, plus jersey sales, going to be lot of jerseys sold in Japan.
Dodgers-Padres open the 2024 regular season with couple of games in South Korea.

— LSU’s QB Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy, joining Joe Burrow, Billy Cannon as LSU alums who won the Heisman.
There were three quarterbacks among the four finalists for the award this year; all three of them transferred during their college career.

— Purdue 92, Alabama 86
Zach Edey scored 35 points, in his return to Toronto, his hometown.
Alabama was 19-46 on the arc, 10-18 inside the arc.
Purdue outscored the Crimson Tide 24-9 on the foul line.

— Clemson 74, TCU 66
Other game in Toronto was this battle of surprising unbeatens.
Clemson is now 9-0, vs schedule #32- improved team.
TCU is 7-1, but they’ve played easiest schedule in country so far.

— Tennessee 86, Illinois 79
All five Tennessee starters scored in double figures.
There were 62 foul shots in this game; lot of fouls.
Vols are 6-3, against the 6th-toughest schedule this season.

— Utah 73, BYU 69
First loss for BYU, which shot 7-30 on the arc.
Utah shot 64.5% inside the arc.

— Upsets of the Day:
Marshall (+9) 74, Ohio U 69
San Diego (+7.5) 89, Arizona State 84
South Florida (+7.5) 88, Florida State 72
Eastern Washington (+7.5), Air Force 68
Idaho (+6.5) 63,, Utah Tech 62
Saint Mary’s (+5.5) 64, Colorado State 61
Grand Canyon (+4.5) 69, Liberty 64
Washington (+4.5) 78, Gonzaga 73

— Word of the Day: Bonanza- a situation or event that creates a sudden increase in wealth, good fortune, or profits.
This week has been a bonanza for Shohei Ohtani.

— Penn State 83, Ohio State 80
Buckeyes led by 18 with 15:31 left in the game.
Both teams shot over 40% on the arc.

— Xavier 84, Cincinnati 79
Xavier outscored the Bearcats 22-10 on foul line.
First loss of season for 7-1 Bearcats; Xavier is 5-5.

— Villanova 65, UCLA 56
UCLA lost three of last four D-I games (beat Cal-Riverside by 1)
Villanova snaps three-game skid with this win.
Villanova is 5-2 vs top 100 teams, only 2-2 vs teams outside top 100.

— Rutgers 70, Seton Hall 63
Scarlet Knights win in this Garden State rivalry.
This is Rutgers’ first win in four top 100 games.
Seton Hall is now 0-4 vs top 100 teams.

— Auburn 104, Indiana 76
Tigers outscored Indiana 32-8 in last 10:00 of first half.
Auburn shot 14-29 on the arc.
Hoosiers start two frosh, two sophs, very young for this era.

— Washington 78, Gonzaga 73
Gonzaga’s 16-game win streak against the Pac-12 ends.
Three guys on Gonzaga played all 40:00; they’re not deep.
— Four of the country’s 12 unbeaten teams got beat Saturday.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 16

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs Ohio U
Georgia Southern (6-6)
— Eagles lost their last four games, giving up 39.3 ppg.
— Eagles beat Ball State of MAC 40-3 in September.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 115 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 22 games at Tulsa.
— Georgia Southern scored 34+ points in its six wins.
— Georgia Southern’s coach is former USC coach Clay Helton.
— under Helton, Eagles are 8-5 ATS as a favorite.
— Helton is 2-4 as a head coach in bowls.
— over is 4-1-1 in Eagles’ last six games.
— since 2015, Panthers are 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in bowls
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-5 ATS this year.


Ohio U (9-3)
— Ohio won its last three games, giving up 14.7 ppg.
— Bobcats are 8-0 when they score 17+ points.
— Bobcats allowed 17 or less points in eight of their nine wins.
— Ohio is +10 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— Bobcats are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as an underdog.
— Ohio U is 4-2 SU in on the road this year.
— Albin won his first bowl game 30-27 (-2.5) over Wyoming LY.
— under is 7-4 in their I-A games this season.
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS this year.

— Favorite won/covered all three Myrtle Beach Bowls.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Average total in the three Myrtle Beach Bowls: 57.7.
— Since 2018, MAC teams are 15-9-1 ATS in games vs Sun Belt teams.


New Orleans Bowl
Jacksonville State vs Louisiana
Jacksonville State (8-4)
— Jacksonville State is 8-4 in its first year as a I-A team.
— Jax State is 7-1 when it scores 20+ points.
— Gamecocks were held to 17 or less points in 3 of its 4 losses.
— Coach is Rich Rodriguez (has coached West Va, Michigan, Arizona)
— In his career, Rodriguez is 5-6 SU in bowl games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 43 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— Gamecocks have +11 turnover ratio.
— Gamecocks are 3-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— JSU completed 50% or less of its passes in 5 of last 8 games.
— over is 3-1 in the Gamecocks’ last four games.
— Conference USA favorites are 4-4 ATS, out of conference.
— Last 3 years, Gamecocks were 24-11 SU, at I-AA level.
— This is obviously Jax State’s first bowl game.


Louisiana (6-6)
— Louisiana is 6-0 if they score 33+ points, 0-6 if they score less than 33.
— ULL is 6-0 if they run ball for 200+ yards, 0-6 if they don’t.
— Louisiana lost three of last four games, after a 5-3 start.
— Ragin’ Cajuns are 14-6-1 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog (3-1 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB is completing 70.9% of passes- 7 TD’s, 3 INTs.
— Cajuns gave up 31+ points in five of their six losses.
— Louisiana is 2-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— ULL is 2-4 away from home this season.
— Louisiana’s last three games went over the total.
— Coach Desormeaux is 1-1 in bowl games.
— ULL went bowling the last five years, going 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS.
— Cajuns won this bowl 36-21 (-4) over Marshall two years ago.
— Sun Belt underdogs are 9-10 ATS, out of conference.


— Favorites won/covered seven of last eight New Orleans Bowls.
— Last 11 years, Sun Belt teams are 8-3 ATS in this bowl.
— Last three years, Sun Belt teams are 12-7 ATS vs C-USA teams.


Cure Bowl
Miami OH vs Appalachian State (@ Orlando, FL)
Miami OH (11-2)
— Miami won its five games, giving up only 11 ppg.
— Red Hawks are 9-0 if they score 23+ points.
— Miami covered nine of its last 11 games.
— Miami was held to 3-17 points in its two losses (Miami FL/Toledo)
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 61 starts back on offensive line- lost 2 starters to transfer portal.
— senior QB has 29 career starts
— Miami is 3-2 ATS as an underdog TY.
— under Martin, Miami is 34-26-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Miami was 6-7 SU LY despite a +11 turnover ratio.
— Miami is 11-2 TY, with a +2 turnover ratio.
— under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Miami played in bowls three of last four years, going 1-2 SU.
— Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowls.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS this year.


Appalachian State (8-5)
— App State won five of its last six games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— ASU is 2-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
— App State is 3-4 ATS as a favorite TY.
— ASU is 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite.
— ASU is 8-1 scoring 26+ points, 0-4 scoring 24 or less.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 65 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB played JC ball; he’s thrown 33 TD’s, 9 INT this year.
— App State covered four of its last five games (+5 in turnovers).
— ASU gained 500+ TY in three of last six games.
— under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— ASU is 6-1 in bowl games (lost 59-38 to Western Kentucky LY).
— App State is 3-1 ATS as a favorite in bowl games.
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-5 ATS this year.


— Underdogs covered this bowl six of last seven years.
— Sun Belt teams are 4-4 SU in this bowl.
— Since 2018, MAC teams are 15-9-1 ATS in games vs Sun Belt teams.


New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs New Mexico State
Fresno State (8-4)
— Fresno lost its last three games, after an 8-1 start.
— Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
— Fresno scored 27+ points in its seven I-A wins.
— In their losses, Bulldogs scored 19-18-17-18 points.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at UCF.
— in his career, Tedford is 29-26-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Fresno is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as an underdog.
— last five years, Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in bowl games.
— Mountain West underdogs are 17-9 ATS out of conference.
— Fresno won this bowl two years ago, 31-24 (-11) over New Mexico.


New Mexico State (10-4)
— Aggies won eight of last nine games, after a 2-3 start.
— Aggies are 17-10 SU under coach Kill (went 8-30 from 2018-21)
— State won 31-10 at Auburn in November.
— Aggies are 9-1 when they give up less than 33 points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- four starters are back
— junior QB has 8 starts.
— Aggies are 4-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— In his career, coach Kill is 35-24 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, coach Kill is 1-5 SU in bowl games.
— Nine of State’s last 12 games stayed under the total.
— Last year was Aggies’ first bowl since 2017.
— Aggies are 4-0-1 SU all-time in bowl games.
— Conference USA favorites are 4-4 ATS, out of conference.
— Aggies (+2.5) upset New Mexico 27-17 on this field in September.
— Fresno State won seven of last eight meetings (last one was 2019).
— Bulldogs were double digit favorite in 7 of the 8 games.
— New Mexico State covered six of last seven meetings.
— under is 7-1 in last eight series games.


— Last seven years, underdogs are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— Average total in this bowl the last six years, 54.5.
— Mountain West team won this bowl the last five years (4-1 ATS)
— This year, Mountain West teams are 4-1 SU vs C-USA squads.


Los Angeles Bowl
Boise State @ UCLA
Boise State (8-5)
— Boise fired its coach November 12, has now won four in a row.
— Boise is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Broncos won last four games, running for 263 yards/game.
— Broncos are minus-1 in turnovers this season.
— Last six years, Boise was +31 in turnovers.
— Broncos allowed 31+ points in four of their five losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— since 2014, Boise is 10-5 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY)
— over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
— since 2017, Boise is 2-1 in bowls (had two cancelled)
— Mountain West underdogs are 16-9 ATS out of conference.


UCLA (7-5)
— UCLA lost three of last four games, scoring 10-7-7 points in losses.
— UCLA is 7-0 scoring 25+ points, 0-5 if they score less.
— No one ran for more than 133 yards against the Bruins TY.
— UCLA is 1-1 TY in games decided by less than 10 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— UCLA has been juggling three QB’s; one already transferred.
— under Kelly, Bruins are 13-22 ATS as favorites (3-5 TY).
— under is 10-1 in their I-A games this season.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.
— This year, Pac-12 favorites are 13-6 ATS out of conference.


— Mountain West teams beat Pac-12 squads in first two LA Bowls.
— 2022-23, MW teams are 3-17 SU/7-13 ATS vs Pac-12 teams TY.
— From 2017-21, MW teams were 25-16 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.


Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
California vs Texas Tech
California (6-6)
— Cal won last three games, scoring 34 ppg, to become bowl eligible.
— This is Cal’s first bowl since 2019.
— Bears allowed 34+ points in their last five losses.
— Cal scored 32-40-49 points in three of their losses.
— In four of last five games, Cal allowed 309+ passing yards.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB completed 62.4% of passes (13 TDs, 7 INT).
— since 2017, Golden Bears are 29-14 ATS as an underdog.
— since 2018, Cal is 8-8 ATS outside the Pac-12.
— over is 5-2 in Cal’s last seven games.
— Golden Bears are 2-3 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— This year, Pac-12 underdogs are 3-3 ATS out of conference.


Texas Tech (6-6)
— Tech won three of last four games, to become bowl eligible.
— Last three games, Red Raiders gave up 247 rushing yards/game.
— Tech is 2-6 if they score less than 35 points.
— Last seven games, Red Raiders are minus-9 in turnovers.
— 11 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 142 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB is completing 61.8% of passes (12 TD’s, 7 INTs)
— under McGuire, Tech is 6-7 ATS as a favorite (3-5 TY).
— under is 6-4 in their last 10 I-A games.
— Red Raiders are in a bowl for third straight year.
— Tech won last two bowls as an underdog; scored 34-34-42 in last three.
— This year, Big X favorites are 10-13 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2004.
— last seven years. underdogs are 4-2-1 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 13-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents (1-3 TY)
— Last seven years, average total in Independence Bowl was 59.3.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 16

Georgia Southern @ Ohio
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games
Georgia Southern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio
Ohio is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Ohio's last 12 games

Jacksonville State @ Louisiana-Lafayette
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Miami-OH @ Appalachian State
Miami-OH
Miami-OH is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami-OH is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New Mexico State @ Fresno State
New Mexico State
New Mexico State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
New Mexico State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Fresno State
Fresno State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Mexico State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Fresno State's last 8 games when playing New Mexico State

California-Los Angeles @ Boise State
California-Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of California-Los Angeles's last 5 games
California-Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Boise State
Boise State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

California @ Texas Tech
California
California is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of California's last 7 games
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
— Long Beach State 84, USC 79 OT- Trojans were up 45-30 at halftime.
— Boston College 86, St John’s 80- Pitino isn’t happy with his team’s defense.
— Colorado 90, Miami 63- Impressive win for Pac-12’s Buffs.
— St Joe’s 74, Princeton 70- Only seven unbeaten teams left in country.
— Nebraska 77, Michigan State 70- Spartans are 4-5, 0-2 in conference games.
— Memphis 81, Texas A&M 75- Penny Hardaway’s Tigers improve to 7-2.

Quote of the Day
“These receivers can’t get out of the way of hurting the team.”
Tony Romo, talking about the Kansas City Chiefs’ WR’s

Monday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; JK Simmons plays the manager of the Tigers.

Sunday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s basketball team is known as the Anteaters.

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014; they lost to Kansas City in that series.

**********************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday​

Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25
— Mayfield threw 11-yard TD pass with 0:31 left for winning score.
— For the game, Mayfield was 14-29/144 passing, but with two TD’s.
— Last four games, opponents were 14-51 on third down.
— Tampa is 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last play of game, Falcon WR was tackled on 3-yard line.
— Atlanta outgained the Bucs 434-290, but still lost.
— Falcons lost four of their last six games.
— under Smith, Falcons are 2-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Bears 28, Lions 13
— Lions’ last 2 drives of first half: 20 plays, 119 yards, 13 points.
— Lions in second half: 31 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— Last four games, Detroit is minus-6 in turnovers (4-10)
— In their last five games, Detroit has given up 29.8 ppg.
— Bears held to Detroit to 3.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Chicago outscored the Lions 18-0 in second half.
— Last five games, Bears ran ball for 144.4 yards/game.
— Chicago is 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.

Bengals 34, Colts 14
— Cincinnati averaged 11.0 yards per pass play.
— Bengals are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win
— Cincinnati is 17-10-2 ATS in last 29 home games.
— Bengals are 6-1 giving up 20 or less points, 1-5 allowing more than 2o.
— Colts scored on a pick-6, but had only one offensive TD.
— Bengals outscored Indianapolis 20-0 in second half.
— Colts are 11-13 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Colts are 0-6 giving up 29+ points, 7-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.

Browns 31, Jaguars 27
— Flacco threw for 311 yards, three TD’s.
— Browns’ team total: over 9-3-1
— Browns are 9-3-2 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Flacco is 19th QB in NFL history to win 100 games.
— Jaguars’ first six drives: 24 plays, 81 yards, no points.
— Jaguars ran for only 58 yards; they had 4 turnovers (minus-1)
— Jaguar defense gave up 11 TD’s on their last 26 drives.
— since 2018, Jags are 13-23-2 ATS as a road underdog.

Saints 28, Panthers 6
— Carolina lost his last six games (2-4 ATS)
— Last nine games, Panthers were outscored 140-52 in first half.
— Young completed only 13-36 passes; the game was indoors.
— Carolina is 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS on the road this year.
— Saints won despite being outgained, 303-207.
— Saints’ three TD drives: 44-24-64 yards.
— Carolina ran ball for 204 yards; they were 8-20 on third down.
— Saints, Bucs, Falcons are all tied for 1st in NFC South, at 6-7.

Jets 30, Texans 6
— In first half, teams combined for 11 drives, 11 punts, no points.
— Jets outgained Houston, 347-135.
— Rookie QB Stroud was knocked out (concussion) late in game.
— since 2016, Houston is 1-7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Jets in first half: 26 plays, 101 yards, five punts.
— Jets in second half: 42 plays, 247 yards, 30 points.
— Jets were 6-15 on third down, Houston 1-12.
— Opponents’ team total: under 9-4

Ravens 37, Rams 31, OT
— Wallace ran a punt back 76 yards for a walk-off TD in overtime.
— This was first time this season Ravens trailed after three quarters.
— Last six games, Baltimore scored 20 TD’s on 64 drives.
— Ravens won seven of last eight games (5-3 ATS).
— Rams forced OT with a 36-yard FG with 0:11 left in regulation.
— LA is 2-7 when it gives up 19+ points.
— Kyren Williams ran ball 25 times for 114 yards.
— Cooper Kupp caught eight passes for 115 yards and a TD.

Patriots 21, Steelers 18
— New England snapped a 5-game losing skid.
— Patriots in first half: 33 plays, 209 yards, 21 points.
— Patriots in second half: 22 plays, 69 yards, no points.
— Zappe is 3-1 as an NFL starting QB.
— Steelers lost last two games, both to teams that were 2-10.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10-18 points
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 41-16 in first half.
— Steelers are 16-21 ATS last 37 games as a home favorite.

Patriots 21, Steelers 18
— New England snapped a 5-game losing skid.
— Patriots in first half: 33 plays, 209 yards, 21 points.
— Patriots in second half: 22 plays, 69 yards, no points.
— Zappe is 3-1 as an NFL starting QB.
— Steelers lost last two games, both to teams that were 2-10.
— Last four games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10-18 points
— Last three games, Pittsburgh was outscored 41-16 in first half.
— Steelers are 16-21 ATS last 37 games as a home favorite.

Vikings 3, Raiders 0
— Vikings kicked 36-yard FG with 2:00 left for game’s only score.
— 4th-string QB Mullens came off bench, was 9-13/83 passing.
— Minnesota was 8-20 on 3rd down, Raiders were 3-14.
— Opponents’ team total: under 9-3-1
— Raiders lost last three games, scoring 13-17-0 points.
— Las Vegas had only 8 first downs, was outgained 231-202.
— Under is 10-3 in Raider games this season.
— Last seven games, Las Vegas is 28-89 (31.5%) on third down.

49ers 28, Seahawks 16
— Backup QB Lock was 22-31/269 passing, with 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s.
— Seattle lost last four games, giving up 17-31-41 28.8 ppg.
— Seahawks are 6-1 scoring 20+ points, 0-5 scoring less than 20.
— Seattle is 16-9-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road dog (4-2 TY).
— 49ers are 5-0 since their bye (3-2 ATS) with all five wins by 12+ points. — McCaffrey ran ball 16 times for 145 yards.
— Last three games, SF ran ball for 169-146-173 yards.
— 49ers were 6-11 on third down, Seattle 2-11.

Broncos 24, Chargers 7
— Denver’s first TD came on a 3-yard drive after an INT.
— Denver was 8-17 on third down, Chargers 0-12 (1-6 on 4th down)
— Broncos are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
— Denver is 18-14-1 ATS last 33 games as a road underdog.
— Chargers QB Herbert broke right index finger, is probably OFY.
— Chargers got stopped on downs on Denver 7-yard line on their 2nd drive.
— Bolts are 3-6 since their bye week.
— Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Charger games.

Bills 20, Chiefs 17
— Buffalo scored TD’s on two of its first three drives.
— Bills are 9-3-2 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Seven of their last nine games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 7-0 giving up 20 or less points, 0-6 giving up more than 20.
— KC appeared to take lead late in game, but TD was nullified by Chiefs’ WR lining up offsides
— Chiefs are 2-4 in their last six games, after a 6-1 start.
— Kansas City team total: under 10-3
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Cowboys 33, Eagles 13
— Last two weeks, Eagles lost 42-19/33-13.
— Last four games, Eagles were outscored 72-26 in first half.
— Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to Dallas.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Dallas in 1st half: 4 drives- 43 plays, 262 yards, 24 points.
— Dallas was 9-16 on third down, Philly 4-9.
— Dallas won/covered seven of its last eight games.
— Cowboys are 16-6 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite (6-1 TY)

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:
— Chargers @ Las Vegas (-3)
— Vikings @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
— Steelers @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
— Broncos @ Detroit (-5)
— Jets @ Miami (-10.5)
— Falcons (-3) @ Carolina

Quote of the Day
“This is the best decision for me and my future. It was my lifelong dream to play quarterback at North Carolina, and I get a chance to check off another dream and play quarterback in the NFL.”
North Carolina QB Drake Maye, who is skipping his college team’s bowl game

Tuesday’s quiz
What team won the first two Super Bowls?

Monday’s quiz
Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB before Patrick Mahomes.

Sunday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s basketball team is known as the Anteaters.

**************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

— Giants 24, Packers 22
Giants drove 57 yards, kicked game-winning 37-yard FG with 0:02 left.
Giants won their last three games, all as an underdog.
Giants gained 367 total yards, their most since Week 2.
Last nine games, Giants are +14 in turnovers.
Last five games, Green Bay gave up 170.4 rushing yards/game.
Packers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Right now, there are five teams tied for the last playoff slot in NFC.

— Titans 28, Dolphins 27
Dolphins led 27-13 with 3:00 left in the game.
Titans then scored two TD’s in 0:53 span, on drives of 75-61 yards.
Titans are minus-7 in turnovers (9-16) so far this season.
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-3
Miami’s first TD was an awful pick-6 by Levis.
Dolphins’ two offensive TD’s were on short drives of 7-12 yards.
Miami is 2-4 when it scores less than 31 points.
Right now, Miami is #2-seed in AFC, leading AFC East by two games.

— I’m a fan of these Monday NFL doubleheaders, think they’re preferable to Thursday night NFL games- football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest, but Thursday games must bring in major TV $$$, and $$$ always wins out.

— We mentioned how Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700M contract last week; well it turns out, $680M of that money will be paid in deferred payments from 2034-43, lowering the Dodgers’ payroll and potential tax burden right now.
Ohtani makes around $40M a year in endorsements, so he doesn’t need the $$$ right now, and deferring the payments makes it easier for the Dodgers to assemble a winning team next year.

— By way of comparison, according to FanGraphs, Oakland A’s total payroll last season was a paltry $58,505,484, meaning Ohtani is going to make more $$$ than the whole Oakland team made last season. Awesome.
Would be kind of funny if after all this talk about Ohtani, the Angels made the playoffs in 2024, since they never made the playoffs with Ohtani.

— Pacers 131, Pistons 123- Detroit has lost 20 games in a row; they’re 6-14 against the spread in those 20 losses.

— Pet Peeve of the Day- At least three QB’s with NFL aspirations are skipping their teams bowl games: USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman.
Williams/Hartman transferred to their current school, are now skipping out on them too, so the word “loyalty” is apparently an anachronism now.

— Word of the Day: Anachronism- a person, thing, or idea that exists outside of its time in history, Something that is conspicuously old-fashioned.

— College quarterbacks on the move:
Baylor QB Blake Shapen transfers to Mississippi State.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel bolts to Oregon.
North Texas QB Chandler Rogers moves on to California.
Michigan State QB Sam Leavitt transfers to Arizona State.
Boise State QB Taylor Green jumps from Boise State to Arkansas.

— NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder is off to a fast 15-7 start; their last winning season was four years ago, so they appear to be a franchise on the rise.
Here’s the thing: over the next seven years, Oklahoma City has 37 draft picks!!!! What the hell will they do with all of them? Teams only have 15 guys on their roster; if you have a good team, your roster will be pretty well set. Will be interesting to see how they handle all that.

— There are seven unbeaten teams left in college basketball.

— Troy State football coach Jon Sumrall is moving on to Tulane; Trojans are 11-2 this season, are playing Duke in the Birmingham Bowl, but their coach is moving up the financial ladder. Tulane coach Willie Fritz has bolted to the Houston Cougars.

— Vikings’ 3-0 win in Las Vegas Sunday was the 7th NFL game in the Super Bowl era to end 3-0, but this game was indoors- the others were all played in cruddy weather.

— By my count, 54 different quarterbacks have started an NFL game this season, and that count will rise this weekend, with 3-4 more teams likely to start a new QB, due to injuries.

— Major league pitcher Marco Gonzales had a weird week last week:
Last Sunday, he got traded from Seattle to Atlanta.
Two days later, he got dealt to Pittsburgh.
Good news is that he’s probably the Pirates’ #2 starter.
More good news, he’s going to make $12M in 2024.
Bad news is…….well, he’s on the Pirates instead of a good team.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 18

Famous Toastery Bowl (Charlotte)
Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion
Western Kentucky (7-5)
— WKU won three of its last four games.
— WKU is 5-0 when it scores 30+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— WKU gained 400+ TY in six of last eight games.
— Hilltoppers are +7 in turnovers; last two years, were +10/+11.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 56 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 14 games LY, threw for 4,744 yards, 40 TD’s.
— WKU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
— WKU is 3-4 ATS TY in games with a single digit spread.
— under Helton, WKU is 14-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Hilltoppers are 3-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— WKU has been to a bowl the last four years (3-1)


Old Dominion (6-6)
— ODU won last two games 20-17/25-24 to become bowl eligible.
— Monarchs are 6-4 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— ODU is 1-6 when it allows 27+ points, 5-0 when it allows less than 27.
— Old Dominion was favored in only 2 of 11 I-A games this season.
— 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 31 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB was previously a backup at I-AA Fordham.
— First five games, ODU was minus-6 turnovers; last seven games, they were +6
— under Rahne, ODU is 3-3-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Old Dominion is 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in bowl games (2017, 2021)


— Hilltoppers won six of last seven series games (5-2 ATS).
— Last meeting was a 43-20 WKU win at Old Dominion, two years ago.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
— Last three years, Sun Belt teams are 12-8 ATS vs C-USA opponents.


December 19

Frisco Bowl
Texas-San Antonio vs Marshall
Texas-San Antonio (8-4)
— UTSA won seven of its last seven games, after a 1-3 start.
— Roadrunners lost AAC title game 29-16 at Tulane.
— Roadrunners scored 34+ points in seven of their eight wins.
— UTSA is 1-4 when they score less than 34 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 42 games.
— UTSA is 3-2 ATS as a double digit favorite TY.
— under Traylor, UTSA is 18-16-1 ATS as a favorite.
— UTSA is minus-3 in turnovers TY (+22 from 2020-22)
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Roadrunners went 0-3 in bowls the last three years.
— UTSA (+3) lost this bowl 38-24 two years ago.


Marshall (6-6)
— Marshall lost six of last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— In its last four losses, Marshall was outscored 113-24.
— Thundering Herd scored 31+ points in four of six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started seven games last year.
— Marshall is 4-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Last five games, Marshall is minus-10 in turnovers.
— Thundering Herd is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season.
— under is 4-2 in Marshall’s last six games.
— Last five years, Marshall went 2-3 in bowl games.


— These teams haven’t met since 2018.
— Marshall won two of three meetings (under 3-0)
— Last seven years, favorites are 4-3 ATS in this bowl.
— Winning side scored 35+ points in seven of eight Frisco Bowls.
— Last three years, Sun Belt teams are 12-8 ATS vs C-USA opponents.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 18

Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Old Dominion
Western Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Old Dominion
Old Dominion
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 7 games when playing Western Kentucky


December 19

Texas-San Antonio @ Marshall
Texas-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas-San Antonio's last 7 games
Marshall
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marshall's last 6 games
Marshall is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:
— Chiefs (-9.5) @ New England
— 49ers (-13.5) @ Arizona
— Commanders @ Rams (-6.5)
— Cowboys @ Buffalo (-2.5)
— Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville
— Eagles (-4) @ Seattle

Quote of the Day
“It’s an honor to be who we are.”
Joseph Campbell

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 2006, Chargers have started only 3 quarterbacks; Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and who else?
Hint: He is still in the NFL, as a backup QB

Tuesday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls, beating Chiefs/Raiders.

Monday’s quiz
Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB before Patrick Mahomes.

*******************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..​

— Be careful when handicapping college football bowl games; players are opting out of bowls to avoid injury/get ready for the NFL Draft. There have also been a few coaching changes involved with bowl teams.
This is from Brad Powers; teams with most starters opting out of bowls:
11- Texas A&M, Oregon State (both head coaches are gone)
10- James Madison (head coach bolted)
9- North Carolina, Notre Dame (both QB’s bolted)
7- Miami, Kansas State
6- Clemson, Duke (Duke’s QB/HC both bolted)
5- Ohio U, Western Kentucky

— Our write-ups for the first eight bowl games are posted on the College Football page.

— Duke QB Riley Leonard bolted to Notre Dame this week; the Fighting Irish are now like those rich baseball teams who poach the best players off less wealthy teams- they’re just going to buy a veteran QB every year.

— If you wager on season-long over/under win totals, the LA Chargers clinched their under bet again this year, 5th year in a row they came in under their win total. Not good.

— I mentioned couple weeks ago how the Arizona Cardinals lost the field position battle in their first 12 games, then of course they went out and won field position by 13 yards in their win at Pittsburgh in Week 13. You win field position by 10+ yards, you generally win the game.
Thru Week 13, NFL teams who won field position by 10+ yards were 51-3 in those games.

— San Francisco Giants signed Korean OF Jung Hoo Lee to a 6-year, $113M contract; he played the last seven years for the Kiwoom Heroes, hitting .340- he was the KBO’s MVP in 2022. He is 25 years old; his father was also an MVP in the KBO.

— Mets’ IF Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL Sunday while playing in the Dominican Winter League; he hit .248 in 26 games as a rookie for the Mets this past year.

— Kansas City Royals are signing P Seth Lugo to a 3-year, $45M deal; he was 8-7, 3.57 in 26 starts for San Diego last year, his first season since 2017 as a starter.

— RIP to Vic Davalillo, who passed away this week in Venezuela. Davalillo played 16 years in the major leagues, winning World Series rings with the Pirates (’71), A’s (’73). He hit .279 in his career, and made the All-Star Game in 1965 for Cleveland.
An outfielder, Davalillo played for six different teams over three decades. RIP, sir.

— Word of the Day: Ambidextrous- a person who can use their right/left hands equally well.

College basketball knowledge………
— Some of the teams playing the fastest tempo in America:
3- Samford
4- Western Kentucky
5- Arizona
6- Tulane
Some of the teams playing the slowest tempo in America:
362- Towson
361- Virginia
360- Middle Tennessee
359- St Thomas

— Teams turning the ball over the most:
362- Stephen F Austin 25.2% of time
360- Siena 24.9%
359- Sacramento State 24.5%
358- Wyoming 23.8%

Teams turning the ball over the least:
2- Richmond 11.7%
3- Kentucky 11.9%
4- Northwestern 12.0%
5- Denver 12.8%

— Teams with best shooting %age inside the arc:
1- UConn 64.2%
2- Tulane 63.5%
3- Creighton 62.7%
4- Cornell 62.3%

— Teams getting highest %age of points on the arc:
43.4%- Creighton
42.7%- St Joe’s
42.2%- Georgia Southern
41.3%- Cal-Riverside

— Teams getting highest %age of points on the foul line:
28.2%- Grand Canyon
27.9%- Tulane
26.8%- Maryland
26.8%- Nevada

— Teams whose subs play the most minutes:
Samford
Vanderbilt
Stephen F Austin
Auburn
Teams whose subs play the least minutes:
Princeton
West Virginia
Oral Roberts
Southern Mississippi

— Teams with best continuity:
Columbia
Drexel
Marquette
Florida Atlantic
Teams with least continuity:
New Mexico State
Iona
Utah State
Idaho