CNOTES 2023-2024 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS + NEWS AND NOTES

Cnotes53

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Friday’s 6-pack:
NFL teams with the best records against the spread (all 9-5 ATS)
— Baltimore Ravens
— Dallas Cowboys
— Detroit Lions
— Indianapolis Colts
— Miami Dolphins
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quote of the Day
“I want to be careful with my words, because this one hurts more than most of them. A team that played last night got [50] points off turnovers and rebounds. It is unbelievably hard to understand how we can get outworked in those categories.”
Detroit Pistons coach Monty Williams; Pistons have lost 25 games in a row

Friday’s quiz
When Matthew Stafford was a high school QB in Texas, which current major league pitcher was the center on that team?

Thursday’s quiz
Joe Theismann is the all-time leader in passing yardage for the Washington Redskins/Commanders, with 25,206 yards. Sonny Jurgensen is next, with 22,585 yards.

Wednesday’s quiz
2006/2007 was last time a college basketball team won consecutive national titles, when Billy Donovan’s Florida team won both tournaments.

******************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

Rams 30, Saints 22
Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS last six weeks, scoring 32.4 ppg in last five games.
Rams outgained New Orleans, 458-339
WR Demarcus Robinson has caught a TD pass in four consecutive games.
Rams are 7-3 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
Rams have missed 11 field goals TY, the most of any team since 2015.
New Orleans didn’t give up a TD in its previous two games (Carolina/Giants).
Rams’ first drive: 14 plays, 95 yards, 7:56 and a TD.
Saints are 7-8, but have been favored in 12 of the 15 games.
New Orleans was 0-3 on 4th down conversions, all in LA territory.

South Florida 45, Syracuse 0
Bulls outgained Syracuse 407-159.
Orangemen were 1-16 on third down conversions.
Syracuse lost seven of its last nine games, after a 4-0 start.

— LA Dodgers signed Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto for $325M over 12 years; Dodger Dogs are going to be expensive next summer. Mets supposedly offered him the same amount of money, but Yamamoto opted to sign with the Dodgers.
Yamamoto is 25; he’s won the Japanese version of the Cy Young Award three times.

— Other baseball signings this week:
Detroit Tigers signed P Jack Flaherty for one year, $14M
Pittsburgh Pirates gave OF Andrew McCutchen a one year, $5M deal.
Mets acquired P Adrian Houser and OF Tyrone Taylor from Milwaukee for minor league outfielder Coleman Crow.

— They tweaked some baseball rules this week:
Teams will be allowed four mound visits per game, not five.
With a runner on base, the pitch clock will now be 0:18; it was 0:20 last year.
If a pitcher warms up before an inning, he has to face the first hitter.

— In case you were wondering, the only 0-0 tie in NFL history was back in 1943, a Giants-Lions game at Briggs Stadium in Detroit.

— Bills-Chargers game Saturday night is exclusively on Peacock; apparently the 4th quarter will be commercial-free, the first time that’s happened on an NFL telecast.

Word of the Day– Imbecile- a stupid person is one definition.
Another definition is someone who stays up until 2am watching the Portland-Hawaii basketball game, after watching the end of the South Dakota-San Diego game before that. Then that person will watch a movie after the Hawaii game, before they get to bed.
That person is me.

— Best wishes to Old Dominion basketball coach Jeff Jones, who had a heart attack Wednesday night; he is expected to make a full recovery. Old Dominion is playing in a holiday tournament in Hawai’i; they lost 111-87 to TCU Thursday.
63-year old Jones has led eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in his 31 years as a college coach; as a player, he was one of Ralph Sampson’s teammates at Virginia.

— Here is how stupid college sports have become:
49ers QB Brock Purdy is making $870,000 this year; he might be the NFL MVP, but he’s still on his rookie contract, and he was a 7th round draft pick.
Texas Longhorns backup QB Arch Manning, Peyton Manning’s nephew, made $2.8M on his NIL deal this season. He doesn’t even freakin’ play and he made $2.8M.

— There are three undefeated teams left in college basketball:
Houston, James Madison, Ole Miss.

— Jazz 119, Pistons 111- Detroit has now lost 25 games in a row; their last win was in October, but somehow they were a slight favorite in this game. Yikes.
Jazz sat out four players, which is why they were the underdog here, but Kelly Olynyk scored 27 points as Utah got a road win.

— Kentucky 95, Louisville 76- Wildcats made 12-25 on the arc. Louisville is 22-54 the last 2+ seasons; it is likely they’ll have a new coach next season.

— Georgia Tech 73, UMass 70- Tech outscored the Minutemen 18-6 over the last 5:03 of the game; they’re off to a 7-3 start.

— New Hampshire 81, Rhode Island 71- Oy. URI has lost five in row, seven of its last eight D-I games. Not good. Rams are shooting 59.6% on foul line (#358), turning ball over 20.2% of the time (#294).

— Happy 98th birthday to the great actor Dick Van Dyke; spent lot of my childhood watching re-runs of his TV show, with Mary Tyler Moore, Morey Amsterdam and Carl Reiner.
 

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NCAAF
Weather Report

Bowl Season

December 22

Co7wcnJ.png
 

Cnotes53

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
GT at UCF06:30 PMUCF -6.0
U 67.0
+500 +500
 
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 23

Birmingham Bowl
Troy
(-7.5) vs Duke
Troy (11-2)
— Troy won its last ten games (8-1 ATS last nine).
— Trojans HC quit, moved on to Tulane.
— Trojans were held to 13-14 points in their two losses.
— under Sumrall, Trojans were 6-5 ATS as a favorite (1-2 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 88 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 28 career starts coming into this year.
— Last four games, Troy scored 40 points/game.
— Last seven games. Trojans are +9 in turnovers.
— Troy’s last four games went over the total.
— Troy won/covered its last five bowls, dating back to 2010.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.


Duke (7-5)
— QB bolted to Notre Dame, coach bolted to Texas A&M.
— Duke is 3-5 in last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Duke allowed 21 or less points in its wins, 31.8 ppg in losses.
— Duke is 1-3 TY in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog (2-3 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— freshman backup QB threw 137 passes TY (8 TD, 3 INT)
— Blue Devils are 2-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— over is 5-1 in their last six games.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014.
— ACC underdogs are 7-10 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Birmingham Bowls.
— average total in this bowl the last six years: 64.0.
— since 2019, Sun Belt teams are 12-7 ATS vs ACC opponents.


Camellia Bowl
Arkansas State
(-1) vs Northern Illinois (@ Montgomery, AL)
Arkansas State (6-6)
— Red Wolves won 77-31 (Texas State), lost 72-0 (Ohio State).
— Arkansas State is 1-1 in games decided by less than 10 points.
— ASU is 5-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 29 starts back on offensive line; they added 4 transfers.
— freshman QB completed 58.8% of passes (15 TD’s, 6 INTs)
— ASU allowed 436+ TY in five of last seven games.
— Last four games, Red Wolves are +6 in turnovers.
— Butch Jones is 4-2 SU in bowl games.
— This is Arkansas State’s first bowl since 2019.
— Red Wolves are 2-3 SU in their last five bowls.


Northern Illinois (6-6)
— Huskies won five of last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
— NIU is 4-1 giving up 14 or fewer points, 2-5 giving up 20+ points.
— NIU is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-9 in its losses.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 117 starts back on offensive line; they’re supposed to be good.
— senior QB made 16 starts before this year.
— NIU is 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Hammock, NIU is 9-7 ATS in non-league games
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— NIU went to one bowl the last four years.
— Huskies lost their last seven bowls (1-4 ATS last five)
— MAC teams are 17-18 ATS this year, out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2011.
— Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years.
— since 2015, Sun Belt teams are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— average total in this bowl the last five years: 49.2
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.


Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison
(-3) vs Air Force (@ Fort Worth, TX)
James Madison (11-1)
— JMU’s only loss was 26-23 at home to App State Nov 18.
— Dukes have fun wins by 8 or fewer points.
— Dukes are 4-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— JMU’s coach has bolted to Indiana.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line- lot of experience.
— junior QB has completed 68.9% of his passes, thrown 32 TD’s, 9 INT’s.
— JMU is 22-10 ATS in last 32 games as a favorite.
— In September, JMU won 45-38 at Utah State of Mountain West
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This is James Madison’s first bowl.
— Sun Belt favorites are 9-6 ATS out of conference.


Air Force (8-4)
— Air Force lost its last four games, after an 8-0 start.
— Last four games, Falcons scored 15.5 ppg.
— Last four games, AF was minus-8 in turnovers.
— Seven of Air Force’s eight I-A wins are by 10+ points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 62 passes, run ball 133 times.
— since 2015, Air Force is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY)
— since 2016, Flyboys are 20-11-1 ATS in non-league games.
— four of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Falcons (+3.5) won this bowl 30-15 last year.
— Mountain West underdogs are 16-9 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2017, service academies are 4-0 SU in this game.
— last seven years, underdogs are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.


Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State
vs Utah State (-1) (@ Boise, ID)
Georgia State (6-6)
— Panthers lost last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Georgia State allowed 42+ points in 4 of last 5 losses.
— Panthers scored 30+ points in five of their six wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 23 starts.
— Georgia State is 8-5-1 ATS in its last 14 non-league games.
— Panthers are 5-4-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Their last three games stayed under the total.
— Panthers won three of last four bowls, scoring 39-51 in last two.
— Sun Belt teams are 18-14 ATS out of conference.


Utah State (6-6)
— Aggies won last game 44-41 to become bowl eligible.
— Utah State won three of its last four games.
— Utah State is 23-16 SU in three years under Anderson.
— USU is 6-2 when it scores 32+ points, 0-4 if it doesn’t.
— Last two games, Aggies gave up 352/337 yards rushing.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— TY, Aggies are 3-6 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Utah State is 8-10 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— last six games, Aggies are minus-7 in turnovers.
— over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.
— Mountain West teams are 20-13 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 4-2 ATS in last six Potato Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.


Mobile Bowl
Eastern Michigan
@ South Alabama (-16) (@ Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (6-6)
— EMU won last two games, 30-27/24-11, to become bowl eligible.
— Eagles are 5-0 scoring 24+ points, 1-6 scoring less than 24.
— EMU is 1-5 SU/4-2 ATS on the road this year.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 58 starts back on offensive line; only two starters are back.
— soph QB Smith is completing 57.4% of passes, with 9 TD’s, 7 INT’s.
— EMU is 28-8 ATS last 36 games as a road underdog (4-2 TY).
— under Creighton, EMU is 30-13-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Eagles are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— three of their last four games went over.
— Eagles are 22-16 SU last three years (32-61 from 2013-20).
— EMU won bowl game 41-27 LY, snapping 4-game bowl losing skid.
— MAC road underdogs are 15-12 ATS out of conference.


South Alabama (6-6)
— USA is 4-1 when it scores 33+ points, 2-5 when it doesn’t.
— Five of six Jaguar wins were by 18+ points.
— USA is 1-4 in games decided by 13 or less points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 13 career starts coming into this year.
— Jaguars lost SU twice as a double digit favorite TY (3-3 ATS).
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Four of Jaguars’ last five games stayed under the total.
— under Wommack, Jaguars are 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
— South Alabama is 0-3 in bowl games (’14, ’16, last year)
— Sun Belt home favorites are 5-4 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites covered this bowl the last three years.
— MAC squads are 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games vs Sun Belt opponents.
— This bowl is played in South Alabama’s stadium.


Las Vegas Bowl
Utah
(-7) vs Northwestern
Utah (8-4)
— Utah is 2-3 in its last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Utes are 7-0 when they allow 17 or less points, 1-4 if they allow more than 17.
— Utah allowed 32+ points in four of last six games.
— Utah is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite (4-2 TY).
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— soph QB Barnes is completing 58.5% of passes (12 TD/9 INT)
— last 4+ years, Utes are 42-17 SU.
— Utah is 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 non-league games.
— Five of their last seven games went over.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
— Pac-12 favorites are 13-6 ATS out of conference.


Northwestern (7-5)
— Northwestern had off-field issues in off-season, has a new coach.
— Ex-coach Fitzgerald was 111-101 there, played there; big change
— Interim coach did so well, he is now the full-time coach.
— Wildcats won last three games to become bowl eligible.
— 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 27 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 11 games at Cincinnati last year.
— Northwestern covered its last six games (4-2 SU)
— Wildcats covered their last five tries as an underdog.
— Northwestern is 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This is Northwestern’s first bowl since 2020.
— Wildcats won their last four bowls (two as an underdog)


— Northwestern (+7) upset Utah 31-20 in 2018 Holiday Bowl.
— Favorite covered last four Las Vegas Bowls.
— since 2013, Pac-12 teams are 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Pac-12 teams are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games vs Big 14 opponents.


Hawai’i Bowl
Coastal Carolina
vs San Jose State (-10)
Coastal Carolina (7-5)
— Coastal’s 4-year starting QB has bolted to NC State.
— Coastal lost last two games, 28-21/56-14.
— Chanticleers are 0-5 giving up 27+ points, 7-0 giving up less than 27.
— Coastal is 3-1 in games decided by 8 or less points.
— Chanticleers are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as an underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 39 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB has completed 62.9% of passes (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Coastal is 11-9 ATS in its last 20 non-league games.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Coastal has played in bowls the last three years, their first three bowls.
— Coastal was 1-2 in those bowls, with average total of 80.3.
— Sun Belt underdogs are 9-10 ATS out of conference.


San Jose State (7-5)
— Spartans won their last six games, after a 1-5 start.
— San Jose allowed 35+ points in four of five losses.
— Spartans are bowl eligible for third time in four years.
— San Jose is 6-0 when they score 30+, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 35 games, 23 at Hawai’i.
— Spartans are 4-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— under Brennan, San Jose is 12-13 ATS in non-conference tilts.
— San Jose ran ball for 217+ yards in five of last six games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— San Jose made bowls two of last three years, but lost both.
— Mountain West favorites are 4-4 ATS out of conference.


— Underdogs won the last five Hawai’i Bowls SU.
— Mountain West teams are 4-2 ATS in last six Hawai’i Bowls.
— since 2016, Mountain West teams are 13-5-2 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.




NCAAF

Bowl Season


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Trend Report
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December 23

Arkansas State @ Northern Illinois

Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games

Troy @ Duke
Troy
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Duke
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

Georgia State @ Utah State
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah State's last 11 games

James Madison @ Air Force
James Madison
James Madison is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
James Madison is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Air Force
Air Force is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games

South Alabama @ Eastern Michigan
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Alabama's last 5 games
South Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 6 games

Utah @ Northwestern
Utah
Utah is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games
Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Coastal Carolina @ San Jose State
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Jose State
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


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Cnotes53

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ARST at NIU12:00 PMNIU +2.5
U 54.5
+500 +500
TROY at DUKE12:00 PMTROY -7.0
O 44.5
+500 +500
GSU at USU03:30 PMUSU -1.5
O 59.0
+500 +500
JMU at AFA03:30 PMJMU -1.0
U 41.5
+500 +500
USA at EMU07:00 PMEMU +17.0
O 44.5
+500 +500
UTAH at NW07:30 PMNW +6.5
U 42.0
+500 +500
CCU at SJSU10:30 PMSJSU -9.0
O 48.0
+500 +500
 

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2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS...........................14 - 13 - 1................51.85%................- 0.50
 
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Cnotes53

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
— Bucks 130, Knicks 111- This was Milwaukee’s first road game in December.
— Celtics 145, Clippers 108- Boston made 25 of 53 3-point shots.
— Nuggets 102, Bulls 95- Denver outscored Bulls 30-9 in third quarter.
— Magic 117, Pacers 110- Orlando’s five subs were a combined +56.
— Rockets 106, Pelicans 104- Sengun scored 37 points, had 11 rebounds.
— Grizzlies 125, Hawks 119- Memphis outscored Atlanta 75-59 in second half.

Thought of the Day
“You do not need to parachute to go skydiving………
……..you do need a parachute if you want to go skydiving twice.”

Thursday’s quiz
Giants’ rookie QB Tommy DeVito played college football at which two schools?

Saturday’s quiz
James Harden was the last American player to win MVP in the NBA, six years ago.

Friday’s quiz
When Matthew Stafford was a high school QB in Texas, Clayton Kershaw was the center on that team.

***************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

Steelers 34, Bengals 11
QB Rudolph threw an 86-yard TD pass on the Steelers’ 2nd play of game.
WR Pickens caught four passes for 195 yards, two TD’s.
Steelers in first half: 33 plays, 263 yards; they led 24-0 at the half.
since 2018, Steelers are 10-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Bengals are 0-5 SU vs AFC North rivals, 8-2 vs everyone else.
Cincinnati turned ball over twice on its first four drives.
Bengals’ only TD was 80-yard pass to Higgins on first play of third quarter.
Six of Bengals’ last seven games went over the total.

Bills 24, Chargers 22
Buffalo kicked a 29-yard FG with 0:28 left for the win.
Bills were 5-10 on third down, Chargers 4-14.
Buffalo scored 28.2 ppg in five games since firing their OC.
Buffalo won/covered four of those five games.
Chargers lost despite being +3 in turnovers.
Bolts scored six times, but it was 5 field goals, only one TD.
Chargers have only six TD’s on their last 56 drives.
Chargers lost six of their last seven games.

— Florida Atlantic 96, Arizona 95 2OT
Arizona led 19-5 early on.
Owls shot 58.3% inside the arc.
FAU is 10-2 this season, vs schedule #28.
Arizona out-rebounded FAU, 52-39.

— Providence 75, Butler 65 OT
Friars led 15-0 out of the box, but……..
…….Friars forced OT on a 3-point shot with 0:02 left.
Seven players in this game played 39+ minutes.

— UConn 69, St John’s 65
Red Storm led 32-26 at halftime.
Teams combined to shoot 9-36 on the arc.
Newton scored 15 points, had 9 rebounds, 6 assists for UConn.

— Memphis 77, Vanderbilt 75
Vandy led by 8 points with 7:56 left in game.
Vandy’s team was 17-22 on the foul line.
Memphis star Jones was 12-18 on foul line, scored 28 points.
Vanderbilt is 1-8 vs teams ranked in top 200.

— Nets 126, Pistons 115
Detroit has lost 26 games in a row (7-19 ATS)
Pistons were +6 in the 35:00 with PG Ivey on the floor.

— Word of the Day: Continuity- when something keep happening or existing, with no great changes or interruptions.
College basketball teams with better continuity have an advantage; they’re used to playing together.

— Duke 17, Troy 10
Duke has now won/covered its last five bowl games.
Blue Devils led this game 14-0 at halftime.
Troy ran ball 26 times for only 89 yards.
Both head coaches had already bolted to bigger $$$ jobs.

— Northern Illinois 21, Arkansas State 19
Ark State scored a TD with 1:14 left, but 2-point conversion failed.
NIU’s first four drives: 30 plays, 220 yards, 21 points.
NIU rest of game: 44 plays, 201 yards, no points.
Huskies snapped a 7-game losing streak in bowl games.

— Air Force 31, James Madison 21
Falcons ran ball 63 times for 351 yards.
Air Force led 21-7 at half; they threw 5 passes the whole game.
Eight of Air Force’s nine I-A wins were by 10+ points.
Falcons won their last five bowl games, scoring 33.6 ppg.

— Georgia State 45, Utah State 22
Georgia State in first half: 40 plays, 396 yards, 31 points.
QB Grainger was 19-22/257 passing, with three TD’s.
Panthers outgained Utah State, 643-347.
RB Brock carried ball 24 times for 276 yards and a TD.

— South Alabama 59, Eastern Michigan 10
Jaguars led 38-3 at halftime.
USA’s first six drives: 36 plays, 296 yards, 31 points.
Freshman QB Lopez threw for 192 yards, ran for 88 more.
This was South Alabama’s first win in four bowl games.

— Northwestern 14, Utah 7
Northwestern drove 53 yards, scored game-winning TD with 6:19 left.
Wildcats finish season on a 4-game winning streak.
Utah is 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
Utah lost its last five bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 26

Quick Lane Bowl
(@ Detroit)
Bowling Green vs Minnesota (-3.5)
Bowling Green (7-5)
— Bowling Green won five of its last six games.
— Last eight games, Bowling Green has a +13 turnover ratio.
— Falcons have played only two games decided by less than 10 points.
— Falcons won four of their last five games away from home.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line, are expected to improve.
— junior QB Bazelak started 29 games at Missouri/Indiana.
— Falcons are 16-10-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
— BG is 3-3 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Bowling Green lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS)
— This is Falcons’ first winning season since 2015.
— Last year, Bowling Green (-6.5) lost this bowl 30-27 to Pitt.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS.


Minnesota (5-7)
— Gophers are somehow in a bowl, despite their 5-7 record.
— Minnesota lost its last four games, giving up 35.3 ppg.
— Gophers are 2-5 ATS as a favorite this year.
— In his career, Fleck is 5-2 SU in bowls.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started five games last year.
— This year, Minnesota is 3-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Fleck, Minnesota is 22-20-1 ATS as a favorite.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Gophers won their last six bowls, were underdog in three of them.
— Minnesota won this bowl in 2015/2018.
— Big 14 non-conference favorites are 11-14 ATS this year.


— Two years ago, Bowling Green (+31) upset Minnesota, 14-10.
— Underdogs are 6-3 ATS in last nine Quick Lane Bowls.
— since 2013, MAC teams are 2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Last two years, MAC teams are 8-7 ATS vs Big 14 opponents.


First Responder Bowl (@ Dallas)
Texas State (-4) vs Rice
Texas State (7-5)
— This is Texas State’s first-ever bowl; they’ll be excited.
— Texas State lost three of last five games, after a 5-2 start.
— Bobcats are 6-0 when they score 35+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— Bobcats (+27) stunned Baylor 42-31 in September.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 3 games at Auburn, also played at LSU
— Bobcats are 2-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Texas State is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Texas State is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
— TSU’s coach was 12-2 LY at I-AA Incarnate Word.
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-6 ATS this year.


Rice (6-6)
— Rice won its two games, to become bowl eligible
— Owls are 5-0 when they allow 21 or less points.
— Rice gave up 30+ points in all its losses this season.
— under Bloomgren, Rice is 28-19 ATS as an underdog (5-1 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has completed 63.6% of his passes, thrown 15 TD’s, 5 INT’s.
— This year, Rice is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Rice is minus-5 in turnovers this year (minus-13 last year)
— Last three Rice games stayed under the total.
— Rice got to a bowl LY, its first bowl since 2014.
— Owls are 3-2 SU in their last five bowls.
— AAC underdogs are 10-18 ATS in non-league games.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2013, favorites are 5-3-1 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2020, Sun Belt teams are 14-6 ATS vs AAC opponents (6-3 TY)


Guaranteed Rate Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Kansas
vs UNLV
Kansas (8-4)
— Jayhawks split their last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Five of their last six games were decided by 7 or less points.
— Kansas gave up 31+ points in three of four losses.
— Jayhawks are 7-1 when they give up 30 or less points.
— Last three games, Jayhawks ran ball for 251 yards/game.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 6-4 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Leipold is 2-2 ATS in bowl games.
— Kansas is 5-1 ATS in last six non-league games.
— three of last four Kansas games stayed under the total.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Jayhawks won three of their last four bowl games.
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS.


UNLV (9-4)
— Rebels are in their first bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
— UNLV lost its last two games, giving up 37-44 points.
— Rebels gave up 35-31-37-44 points in their four losses.
— Last three games, UNLV gave up 292.7 rushing yards/game.
— Rebels are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— frosh QB has completed 63% of passes (14 TD’s, 8 INT)
— UNLV is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
— Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 16-9 ATS.
— Coach Odom is 0-2 as a head coach in bowls.


— These teams haven’t met since 2003.
— Average total in this bowl the last four times, 33.5.
— Favorites covered four of last five Guaranteed Rate Bowls.


December 27

Military Bowl
(@ Annapolis, MD)
Virginia Tech (-8.5) vs Tulane
Virginia Tech (6-6)
— Tech won four of last six games, after a 2-4 start.
— Hokies scored 30+ points in wins, 17 or less in 5 of 6 losses.
— Tech is 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— soph QB Drones completed 58.3% of passes (15 TDs, 3 INT’s)
— TY, Hokies are 5-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Fry, Tech is 2-6 ATS in non-ACC games.
— Over is 6-2 in Hokies’ last six games.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016.
— ACC non-conference favorites are 13-10 ATS.


Tulane (11-2)
— Tulane’s coach bolted for the $$$ to Houston.
— Tulane is 10-1 in its last ten games since 37-20 loss to Ole Miss.
— Tulane was held to 20-14 points in its two losses.
— This is only 2nd time this year Green Wave is an underdog.
— Green Wave is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.
— Tulane has four wins by 7 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— Under is 11-1 in Tulane’s last 12 games.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— Green Wave (+2) beat USC 46-45 in Cotton Bowl LY.
— AAC non-conference underdogs are 10-18 ATS.


— Favorites covered three of last four Military Bowls.
— since 2014, ACC teams are 4-2 SU in this bowl.
— Last three years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU/ATS vs AAC opponents.


Duke’s Mayo Bowl (@ Charlotte, NC)
West Virginia (-6.5) vs North Carolina
West Virginia (8-4)
— WVU won four of its last five games.
— WVU ran ball for 226+ yards in five of last six games.
— In their losses, Mountaineers allowed 38-41-48-59 points.
— WVU is 8-0 when it allows less than 38 points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started two games last year.
— WVU is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— WVU is 11-9 ATS last 20 games as a favorite (3-3 TY).
— over is 6-1 in WVU’s last seven games.
— since 2016, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in bowl games
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS.


North Carolina (8-4)
— Tar Heels’ QB quit the team, to prepare for NFL Draft.
— Backup QB threw six passes this year, not ideal.
— UNC lost four of last six games, after a 6-0 start.
— UNC gave up 436+ TY in five of last six I-A games.
— Carolina gave up 31+ points in its last six I-A games.
— Tar Heels were underdog in only one game TY (L 31-20 at Clemson)
— Last five years, UNC is 7-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Last nine games, UNC is +8 in turnovers.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
— Mack Brown is 15-11 SU in bowls, 5-5 at Carolina.
— ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-11 ATS.


— These teams haven’t met since 2008.
— Underdogs won/covered 4 of last 5 Mayo Bowls.
— ACC teams lost the last four Mayo Bowls.
— since 2019, AAC teams are 12-7 ATS vs Big X opponents.


Holiday Bowl (@ San Diego)
Louisville (-7.5) vs USC
Louisville (10-3)
— Louisville lost its last two games, after a 10-1 start.
— Cardinals gave up 38 points in both losses (Pitt/Kentucky)
— Louisville has five wins by 7 or fewer points.
— Louisville scored 31+ points in four of last five games.
— Cardinals are 3-6 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cardinals are 4-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— In his career, Brohm is 32-36 ATS as a favorite.
— three of last four Louisville games went over the total.
— Coach Brohm is 4-1 SU in bowl games.
— ACC favorites are 13-10 ATS out of conference.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3 SU).


— Louisville was in ACC title game for first time this year.
— Louisville QB Plummer threw for 406 yards LY in 41-35 loss at USC, while he was playing for the Cal Bears.


USC (7-5)
— USC’s top two QB’s quit team; they’ve got only one scholarship QB.
— USC lost five of last six games, giving up 42.4 ppg in last eight games.
— Soph backup QB Miller is 23-32/309 passing this season.
— USC is 0-5 ATS TY in games with spread of 10 or less points.
— In his career, Riley is 5-2 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY)
— They’ve already fired the defensive coordinator
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, was favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— USC is 1-8 against spread in its last nine games.
— over is 7-2 in their last eight games; that was with Williams at QB.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Pac-12 underdogs are 3-3 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Did mention above that Plummer played against USC last year.
— Underdogs covered six of last eight Holiday Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 2-6 SU/0-8 ATS in last eight Holiday Bowls.
— since 2014, ACC teams are 11-4-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.


Texas Bowl (@ Houston)
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (-2.5)
Oklahoma State (9-4)
— Okla State won 7 of last 9 games, after a 2-2 start.
— OSU allowed 33-34-45-49 points in its four losses.
— Okla State was 7-3 in Big X games (average total, 60.3).
— Cowboys are 5-0 scoring 30+ points, 4-4 scoring less than 30.
— Cowboys are minus-6 in turnovers in losses, +10 in wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He came to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year
— OSU is 6-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— In his career, Gundy is 35-30-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.
— Big X underdogs are 4-3 ATS out of conference.


Texas A&M (7-5)
— A&M is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— A&M fired its coach in November.
— A&M is 0-3 TY in games decided by 11 or less points.
— Aggies are 7-3 when scoring 27+ points (0-2 score less than 27).
— Aggies are 7-1 giving up 22 or less points (0-4 giving up 26+).
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— 3rd-string soph QB is 27-42/410 passing (4 TD’s, no INTs)
— A&M is 2-3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— A&M is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.


— Before 2012, these teams were rivals in the Big X.
— Oklahoma State won four of last five series games (last meeting, 2019)
— Aggies (-4.5) beat OSU 24-21 in 2019 Texas Bowl.
— Underdogs covered four of last five Texas Bowls.




NCAAF

Bowl Season


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Trend Report
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December 26

Bowling Green @ Minnesota

Bowling Green
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Bowling Green is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Texas State @ Rice
Texas State
Texas State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Rice
Rice is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rice's last 6 games

Kansas @ Nevada-Las Vegas
Kansas
Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Nevada-Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games
Nevada-Las Vegas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games


December 27

Virginia Tech @ Tulane

Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games
Tulane is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

North Carolina @ West Virginia
North Carolina
North Carolina is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
North Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
West Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of West Virginia's last 7 games
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Louisville @ Southern California
Louisville
Louisville is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Southern California's last 20 games
Southern California is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas A&M's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma State
Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas A&M
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M


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Cnotes53

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Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Receiving yardage leaders in the NFL:
1,641— Tyreek Hill, Miami
1,424— CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
1,327— Puka Nacua, Rams
1,314— AJ Brown, Phil
1,281— Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
1,250— Amari Cooper, Clev

Quote of the Day
“Could we have done things better? I’m talking about myself and the coaching staff, with regards to, ‘All right, this is our worst-case scenario, now what?’ Absolutely, and it’s something that we will make sure that we do a heck of a lot better with in 2024.”
Jets coach Robert Saleh

Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Lamar Jackson play his college football?

Monday’s quiz
The first time the Denver Broncos played in a Super Bowl, Craig Morton was their QB.

Sunday’s quiz
Giants’ rookie QB Tommy DeVito played college football at Syracuse, Illinois.

*********************************

Tuesday’s Den: Wrapping up Week 16 in the NFL

Raiders 20, Chiefs 14
— Raiders scored two defensive TD’s 0:07 apart in second quarter.
— Not often an NFL team has 48 passing yards and wins, but the Raiders did.
— Last two games, Raiders have scored four defensive TD’s.
— Under is 11-4 in Raider games this season.
— Chiefs are 3-5 in their last eight games, after a 6-1 start.
— In those eight games, Chiefs are minus-9 in turnovers (5-14)
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 11 plays, minus-10 yards, three punts.
— Kansas City lost its last three home games SU.

Eagles 33, Giants 25
— Eagles led this game 20-3 at halftime.
— Giants scored defensive TD late in 3rd quarter to make score 20-18.
— Eagles’ last three drives: 24 plays, 172 yards, 13 points.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Giants changed QB’s at half; Tyrod Taylor was 7-16/133 in 2nd half.
— Eagles outgained Big Blue, 465-292.
— Giants were held under 300 TY in seven of last eight games.
— Giants are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 NFC East road games.

Lions 30, Vikings 24
— Lions clinch their first division title since 1993.
— Detroit led 17-14 at halftime.
— Lions’ first two drives of 2nd half: 27 plays, 163 yards, two TD’s.
— Detroit is 5-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.
— Vikings lost four of their last five games (the win was 3-0).
— Minnesota only ran the ball 11 times, for 17 yards.
— Mullens threw for 411 yards, but also threw four INT’s.
— Minnesota is 6-8 in one-score games this year (11-0 LY)

Seahawks 20, Titans 17
— Seattle drove 53 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:57 left.
— Seattle in first half: 27 plays, 93 yards, 3 punts, 3 points.
— Seattle in second half: 34 plays, 180 yards, no punts, 17 points.
— Second week in row Seahawks scored game-winning TD in last 1:00.
— Titans lost six of their last eight games.
— Tennessee averaged only 3.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Titans are 4-1 scoring 27+ points, 1-8 scoring 17 or less.
— Under is 9-4 in Tennessee’s last 13 games.

Packers 33, Panthers 30
— Packers drove 61 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 0:22 left.
— Packers first 4 drives: 32 plays, 243 yards, no punts, 23 points.
— Packers in second half: 27 plays, 126 yards, 3 punts, 10 points.
— Green Bay outscored last five foes 82-42 in first half.
— Green Bay led 30-16 with 8:00 left in game.
— Panthers had TD drives of 63-70 yards, tied game with 4:15 left.
— Rookie QB Young was 23-35/312 passing, with two TD’s.
— Carolina’s 8.1 yards/pass attempt was by far their best this season.

Jets 30, Commanders 28
— Zuerlein kicked 54-yard FG with 0:10 left for the win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 10 plays, 68 yards, 17 points.
— Jets’ first three drives all started in Washington territory.
— Jets are 3-9 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
— Washington lost six in row, 11 of last 13 games (3-6 ATS last nine)
— QB Brissett was 10-13/100 passing off bench, with one TD pass.
— Washington is 3-1 giving up 17 or less points, 1-10 giving up more than 17.
— Last five games, Commanders allowed 35.8 ppg.

Falcons 29, Colts 10
— Colts drove 62 yards for a touchdown on their first drive.
— Rest of game, Colts ran 55 plays, gained 201 yards, scored 3 points.
— Colts are 0-6 giving up 29+ points, 8-0 allowing 28 or fewer points.
— Favorite covered the Colts’ last eight games.
— Atlanta scored two TD’s, kicked five FG’s on its drives.
— Falcons ran for 177 yards, outgained Colts 406-262.
— Atlanta scored 28-23-29 points in Heinicke’s three starts.
— Under is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.

Browns 36, Texans 22
— Flacco threw for 368 yards and three more TD’s.
— WR Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards and two TD’s.
— Cleveland won/covered six of last eight games.
— Browns are 6-0 giving up less than 24 points, 3-5 allowing 24+.
— Houston’s first TD was a 98-yard kickoff return by Pierce.
— Texans in first half: 28 plays, 75 yards, 5 punts and an INT.
— Cleveland led the game 22-7 at halftime.
— Texans are 13-16-1 ATS in last 30 games as a home underdog.

Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12
— Bucs’ first six drives: 56 plays, 289 yards, 30 points.
— Tampa was 10-19 on third down, Jaguars were 3-9.
— Bucs won their last four games, scoring 21-29-34-30 points.
— Tampa Bay covered seven of its last nine games.
— Jacksonville lost its last four games, giving up 34-31-23-30 points.
— Jaguars turned ball over four times, ran for only 37 yards.
— Last five weeks, Jaguars ran ball for only 64.4 yards/game.
— QB Lawrence was already banged up; he hurt his shoulder today.

Bears 27, Cardinals 16
— Bears’ first four drives: 29 plays, 236 yards, 21 points.
— Chicago won/covered four of last six games.
— QB Fields threw for 170 yards, ran for 97 more.
— Bears converted 8-15 third down plays.
— Arizona is 2-10 SU/4-8 ATS in its last dozen games
— Arizona’s first three drives: 15 plays, 36 yards, three punts.
— Last two games, Cardinals are 24-49 on third down.
— Cardinals are 0-10 SU when they score less than 25 points.

Dolphins 22, Cowboys 20
— Miami drove 64 yards, kicked 29-yard FG with 0:02 left.
— Miami scored only one TD; Sanders kicked five FGs, three of them 50+ yards.
— Dolphins won six of last eight games SU, clinched a playoff spot.
— Last five games, Miami converted 34-70 third down plays.
— On their first series, Dallas lost a fumble on the 1-yard line.
— Cowboys have scored 37.2 ppg in wins, 15.8 ppg in losses.
— Cowboys are 6-10 ATS last 16 games as a road dog (0-4 TY).
— Dallas lost five of its last seven road games SU.

Patriots 26, Broncos 23
— New England kicked a 56-yard FG with 0:02 left for the win.
— Patriots scored two TD’s in a 0:06 span of the third quarter.
— Teams combined to convert 7-26 third down plays.
— Zappe is now 4-2 as an NFL starting QB.
— Denver trailed 23-7 in 4th quarter, tied game on TD drives of 83-88 yards.
— Patriots won/covered four of last five visits to Denver.
— Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite (1-5 TY).
— Last five weeks, Denver converted only 20-67 on third down.

Sunday’s college basketball:

Temple 55, Portland 54
Owls outscored Portland 15-6 over the final 6:31.
Temple was 10-18 on foul line, Pilots were 4-9.
Owls were +11 in turnovers (7-18)

UMass 87, Old Dominion 65
UMass shot 59.6% inside the arc.
Minutemen are grabbing 36.3% of their missed shots (#26)
Old Dominion lost five of its last six games.

TCU 65, Hawai’i 51
Rainbows shot 33.3% from floor, turned ball over 19 times.
TCU’s three subs all played 20+ minutes.
Horned Frogs improve their record to 10-2.

Nevada 72, Georgia Tech 64
Wolf Pack shoots 61% inside arc, wins the Diamond Head Classic.
Nevada starts four seniors, Georgia Tech doesn’t start any.
Wolf Pack is 12-1; they’ve got the #35 eFG% defense in country.
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

Udog

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Sep 10, 2018
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
SMU
(-10) at Boston College (@ Fenway Park, Boston)
SMU (11-2)
— SMU won its last nine games (5-3 ATS), scoring 43.8 ppg.
— Mustangs scored 26+ points in its wins this year.
— SMU’s losses are to Big X teams: 28-11 at Oklahoma, 34-17 at TCU.
— under Lashlee, Mustangs are 6-3 ATS as a favorite, 4-2 on road.
— last five years, SMU is 42-18 SU/30-29 ATS.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Stone has competed 59.9% of passes, with 28 TD’s, 8 INT.
— five of SMU’s last seven games went over total.
— AAC non-conference favorites are 6-6 ATS this year.
— SMU was in the AAC title game this year, for first time.
— SMU lost its last three bowls, were favored in all three;
— Mustangs’ last bowl win was in 2012.


Boston College (6-6)
— Eagles lost their last three games, giving up 32.3 ppg.
— BC is 5-1 giving up less than 27 points, 1-5 allowing 27+.
— Eagles are 5-3 SU this year in one-score games.
— Last three games, BC averaged only 293.7 yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line; much improved.
— soph QB has completed 57.1% of passes (15 TD’s, 13 INT)
— under Hafley, BC is 15-16 ATS as an underdog (3-4 TY).
— over is 7-4 in their I-A games.
— ACC non-conference underdogs are 9-10 ATS this season.
— BC hasn’t played in a bowl since 2019 (one in ’21 was cancelled).
— Eagles lost last two bowls; their last bowl win was in 2016.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— This is the 2nd Fenway Bowl; favorite won/covered the first one.
— Last three years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU/ATS vs AAC opponents.
— Boston in December; weather could be a factor.


Pinstripe Bowl (@ Bronx)
Miami vs Rutgers (-1)
Miami FL (7-5)
— Miami is 1-3 in last four games, after a 6-2 start.
— ‘canes are 7-2 when they score 28+, 0-3 if they don’t.
— Last three years, Miami is 19-17 SU, 14-21 ATS.
— Last two games, Miami gained 486-532 TY.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— starting QB Van Dyke bolted to Wisconsin.
— backup QB Williams is 44-71/470 passing (3 TDs, one INT)
— Miami is 2-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Miami is 3-0 ATS this year, in non-conference games.
— TY, ACC teams are 26-18 SU/22-22 ATS out of conference.
— over is 3-2 in their last five games.
— Miami hasn’t been to a bowl since 2020
— ‘canes lost their last four bowls; last bowl win? 2016.


Rutgers (6-6)
— Rutgers lost its last four games, all by 19+ points.
— Knights scored 11.5 ppg in those four losses.
— Rutgers is 0-5 when it scores less than 24 points.
— Rutgers threw for more than 180 yards in only one game TY.
— Knights are 0-6 when they allow more than 319 TY.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starters back on offensive line; new OL coach comes from NFL.
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— Scarlet Knights are 4-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Rutgers is 9-3 ATS in last 12 non-conference games.
— over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Big 14 teams are 22-11 SU/14-19 ATS out of conference.
— Rutgers is 1-3 in its last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2014.
— This is only second bowl since 2014 for the Scarlet Knights.


— These teams haven’t met since 2003.
— since 2020, Big 14 teams are 14-8 ATS vs ACC opponents.
— Big 14 teams beat ACC squads in last six Pinstripe Bowls.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in this bowl last eight years.
— Miami lost this bowl 35-3 five years ago.
— December in New York; weather could be an issue.


Pop-Tarts Bowl (@ Orlando, FL)
NC State vs Kansas State (-2.5)
NC State (9-3)
— NC State won its last five games, after a 4-3 start.
— Last five games, Wolfpack is +9 in turnovers.
— NC State was held to 24-10-3 points in its losses.
— State is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia.
— This year, State is 6-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— This year, Wolfpack is 5-2 ATS as an underdog.
— six of their last nine games stayed under total.
— ACC underdogs are 9-11 ATS out of conference.
— NC State lost its last three bowls; their last bowl win: 2017.


Kansas State (8-4)
— K-State’s QB bolted to USC.
— Backup QB is 23-35/301 passing (3 TD’s, no INT)
— K-State split last four games, after a 6-2 start.
— Last seven games, K-State has a +13 turnover ratio.
— Wildcats are 7-0 when they allow less the 29 points.
— K-State is 8-1 scoring 31+ points (27-21-30-35 in losses)
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line; all five starters are back
— Backup QB has run ball 44 times for 217 yards.
— K-State is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Klieman, K-State is 19-11 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 9-6 ATS in non-conference games.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games
— Big X non-conference favorites are 11-14 ATS
— Wildcats went to a bowl games three of last four years.


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— ACC teams are 7-3 SU in last 10 Pop Tarts Bowls.
— Favorites covered this bowl six of last seven years.
— Last two years, Big X teams are 7-1-1 ATS vs ACC opponents.


Alamo Bowl (@ San Antonio)
Arizona (-2.5) vs Oklahoma
Arizona (9-3)
— From 2018-22, Wildcats were 15-38 SU; they’re 9-3 this year.
— Arizona won its last six games, scoring 38.8 ppg.
— Last two games, Wildcats threw ball for 852 yards.
— Wildcats are 8-0 when they give up less than 31 points.
— last four years, Arizona is minus-32 in turnovers (even TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— frosh QB has completed 73.6% of passes (23 TD’s, 5 INTs)
— Arizona is 5-0 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Arizona is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
— over is 3-0 in last three Arizona games.
— Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 14-7 ATS.
— Arizona hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2017.
— Wildcats are 3-2 in last five bowls (average total, 76.2)


Oklahoma (10-2)
— QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon.
— Sooners have impressive numbers, but w/o the QB, who knows?
— Oklahoma scored 53 ppg in its last three games.
— under Venables, Sooners are 1-0 ATS as an underdog.
— Oklahoma is +11 in turnovers this season.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 147 starts back on OL; should be much better
— backup QB is 18-24/202 TY, with 2 TD’s, no INTs.
— Oklahoma allowed 20+ points in its last eight games.
— under Venables, Sooners are 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Big X non-conference underdogs are 4-3 ATS this season.
— Oklahoma is 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS in last five bowls (average total, 78.2)


— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 14-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
— Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in last eight Alamo Bowls.
— Oklahoma won this game 47-32 two years ago.




NCAAF

Bowl Season


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Trend Report
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Southern Methodist @ Boston College
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Boston College
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Boston College's last 14 games
Boston College is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Rutgers @ Miami-FL
Rutgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games
Rutgers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami-FL
Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Rutgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 7 games

North Carolina State @ Kansas State
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas State
Kansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Arizona @ Oklahoma
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games


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Cnotes53

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Nov 5, 2017
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TUESDAY, DECEMBER 26

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
BGSU at MINN02:00 PMMINN -3.0
U 43.0
+500 +500
TXST at RICE05:30 PMRICE +3.5
O 59.5
+500 +500
KU at UNLV09:00 PMKU -10.5
U 67.5
+500 +500
 
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Cnotes53

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Nov 5, 2017
28,189
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2023 BOWL BEST BETS !

12/26/2023.......................3 - 3 - 0..................50.00%.............- 1.50
12/23/2023.......................5 - 7 - 0.................41.66%..............- 13.50
12/22/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/21/2023.......................1 - 1 - 0.................50.00%...............- 0.50
12/19/2023........ ..............2 - 0 - 0...............100.00%...............+ 11.00
12/16/2023.......................5 - 4 - 1................55.55%................+ 3.00

TOTALS...........................17 - 16 - 1................51.51%................- 2.00
 

Cnotes53

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Nov 5, 2017
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
New York Mets got a $101M tax bill for 2023, which is more $$ than these team’s entire payrolls:
$96,577,288- Cincinnati
$96,083,853- Kansas City
$93,378,663- Washington
$91,861,627- Cleveland
$79,354,272- Tampa Bay
$75,695,975- Pittsburgh
$71,061,047- Baltimore
$62,243,227- Oakland

Quote of the Day
“Every time you win, you’re reborn……..every time you lose, you die a little.”
George Allen

Wednesday’s quiz
Other than Tom Brady, who is the oldest QB with three consecutive 300+ yard passing games?
(Hint: it isn’t Joe Flacco)

Tuesday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.

Monday’s quiz
The first time the Denver Broncos played in a Super Bowl, Craig Morton was their QB.

**********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— When the Raiders won in Kansas City Monday, they didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter, the first NFL team to do that since the 2000 Bengals, who beat Denver 31-21 that day, when Cincy QB’s Akili Smith and Scott Mitchell were a combined 2-14/34 passing. That day, RB Corey Dillon ran the ball for 278 yards.

Monday, the Raiders scored two defensive TD’s in a 0:07 span of the third quarter, and that was enough to win.
— Baltimore Ravens are 12-3 this season, with seven wins by 14+ points; all seven of those teams came against teams with winning records.
No team in NFL history has had more than five regular season wins by 14+ points against teams with winning records.

— Chicago Bears signed kicker Cairo Santos for four years, $16M, which is little unusual. Lot of teams don’t like to pay kickers, especially teams with salary cap issues.

— Miami Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
Detroit Lions haven’t won one since 1991.
Since starting up again in 1999 after the original Cleveland Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens, Cleveland is 1-2 in playoff games, with the lone win in 2020.

— Florida State QB Jordan Travis is hurt, won’t be playing in the Semnoles’ bowl game vs Georgia; backup QB Tate Rodemaker is now in the transfer portal, which leaves #3 QB Brock Glenn, a freshman who threw for 55 yards in the Seminoles’ 16-6 win over Louisville in the ACC Championship game.
Five other Seminoles have also hit the transfer portal, not counting Travis, who is also expected to skip town next spring.

— In the last eight Holiday Bowls, Pac-12 teams are 0-8 against the spread.

— In the last six Pinstripe Bowls, Big 14 teams are 6-0 against ACC opponents.

— Arizona Wildcats have won six games in a row, they’re 9-3 and are favored over Oklahoma in their bowl game. Quite a turnaround led by coach Jedd Fisch; from 2018-22, the Wildcats were 14-38.

— Word of the Day: Bibliophile- someone who loves reading books.

— I’m amused that if I leave my house without my phone, my car will tell me about a half-mile down the road, then I turn around and go get my phone.
It would be better if a message came up on my dashboard: “Hey stupid, you forgot your phone!!!”

— Seattle Mariners signed DH/C Mitch Garver for two years, $24M; Garver hit 19 homers and had an .870 OPS for Texas last year- he also won a World Series ring.

— Reliever Joe Kelly wore #17 for the Dodgers last year; his wife suggested that he offer #17 to free agent star Shohei Ohtani. After Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, a Porsche was delivered to the Kelly’s home, for Mrs Kelly, from Ohtani.

— Charlotte Hornets are the only NBA team that has never played on Christmas Day.

— Nets 118, Pistons 112
Detroit loses its 27th consecutive game.
Pistons starters were combined +34; subs were minus-64
Detroit coach Monty Williams makes $13.1M/year, 7th-most of any pro coach in country.

— Minnesota 30, Bowling Green 24
Gophers win their 7th straight bowl game.
Bowling Green led 10-9 at halftime.
RB Taylor ran ball 35 times for 209 yards and a TD.
Gophers ran for 255 yards, threw for only 26.

— Texas State 45, Rice 21
This was Texas State’s first-ever bowl game.
Bobcats outscored Rice 21-0 in second half.
Texas State outgained Rice, 300-197.
Bobcats had good balance; 148 rushing yards, 152 passing.

— Kansas 49, UNLV 36
Kansas in first half: 31 plays, 333 yards, 28 points.
Jayhawks averaged 15.4 yards/pass attempt.
Bean was 19-28/449 passing, with 6 TD’s, 3 INTs.
This was UNLV’s first bowl since 2013.
 
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Udog

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

December 29

Gator Bowl
(@ Jacksonville)
Clemson
(-4) vs Kentucky
Clemson (8-4)
— Clemson won its last four games, after a 4-4 start.
— Tigers are 8-0 giving up 23 or less points, 0-4 if they allow 24+
— Clemson is 9-6 SU in last 15 games overall.
— Last four games, Tigers are +6 in turnovers.
— Clemson held 3 of last 5 opponents under 260 total yards.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB has completed 63% of passes, with 19 TD’s, 8 INTs
— Tigers are 5-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Clemson is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Tigers are 11-16 ATS in last 27 non-conference games.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine Clemson games.
— ACC non-conference favorites are 13-11 ATS
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.


Kentucky (7-5)
— Kentucky lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Wildcats are 7-1 giving up 31 or fewer points, 0-4 giving up 33+.
— Kentucky is 1-5 scoring less than 28 points.
— Kentucky was held under 300 TY in six of last seven games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB split two games vs Clemson while at NC State.
— Wildcats are 1-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
— in his career, Stoops is 30-33-2 ATS as an underdog
— Kentucky is 14-3 ATS in last 17 non-SEC games.
— Seven of last nine Kentucky games went over the total.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).
— This year, SEC underdogs are 2-4 ATS out of conference.


— These teams haven’t met since 2009.
— Favorites are 6-3 ATS in last nine Gator Bowls.
— SEC teams are 6-2 SU in their last eight Gator Bowls.
— This year, ACC teams are 7-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Sun Bowl (@ El Paso)
Oregon State vs Notre Dame (-6)
Oregon State (8-4)
— Oregon State’s starting QB, coach have both left town.
— Beavers’ ex-coach is an OSU alum; big blow.
— Pac-12 has dissolved; OSU’s program is in limbo.
— Beavers are 0-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— This is only 2nd time this year Beavers are an underdog.
— under Smith, Beavers were 21-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU is 11-6 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
— Beavers are 6-0 when they allow less than 22 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB Gulbranson started 8 games last year.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).


Notre Dame (9-3)
— Notre Dame’s QB quit the team, won’t play in bowl.
— backup QB is 19-25/272 passing (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Notre Dame won four of its last five games SU.
— Irish scored 14-20-23 points in losses, 41+ in eight of nine wins.
— Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS as a favorite this year.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— First career start for freshman backup QB.
— This year, Irish are 4-2-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Notre Dame is +11 in turnovers in its wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Last five Notre Dame games went over the total.
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).


— These teams haven’t met since 2004.
— Underdogs covered three of last four Sun Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-3 SU in last nine Sun Bowls.


Liberty Bowl
Iowa State
(-10) @ Memphis State
Iowa State (7-5)
— Cyclones won five of last seven games, after a 2-3 start.
— ISU is 7-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t.
— Cyclones are 7-5, have a +9 turnover ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is completing 63.5% of passes (20 TD’s/8 INTs).
— under Campbell, ISU is 10-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— over is 4-1 in their last five road games.
— ISU is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games non-conference games.
— This year, Big X non-conference road favorites are 2-6 ATS.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).


Memphis (9-3)
— Tigers won five of last six games, scoring 45.3 ppg.
— Tigers are 9-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-2 if they don’t/
— Three Memphis losses this year were by 7-10-4 points.
— Memphis allowed 31+ points in seven of last nine games.
— Last efive games, Memphis allowed 494.8 yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line- 3 starters are back.
— junior QB has completed 66.4% of passes (28 TDs, 9 INTs)
— Memphis is 9-4 ATS last 13 games as home underdogs.
— Tigers are 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Nine of their last ten games went over the total.
— This year, AAC non-conference home underdogs are 2-6 ATS.
— Tigers have been bowl eligible nine years in row (’21 bowl cancelled)
— Favorites covered Memphis’ last three bowl games.


— These teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven Liberty Bowls.
— Big X teams won four of last six Liberty Bowls SU.
— since 2019, AAC teams are 12-7 ATS vs Big X opponents.


Cotton Bowl (@ Arlington, TX)
Missouri
vs Ohio State (-1)
Missouri (10-2)
— Mizzou is 9-2 vs I-A teams, losing to LSU/Georgia.
— Mizzou gave up 49-30 points in the two losses.
— Mizzou is 9-0 when it gives up less than 30 points.
— Tigers scored 30+ points in nine of their last ten games.
— Last three games, Mizzou is +9 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB completed 66.7% of passes, with 20 TD’s, 5 INTs.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-9 ATS in non-SEC games.
— seven of last 10 Mizzou games went over the total.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.


Ohio State (11-1)
— QB McCord has bolted to Syracuse.
— backup QB Brown is 12-22/197 passing (2 TD’s, one INT)
— Ohio State was unbeaten until they lost 30-24 at Michigan.
— Buckeyes have only 2 wins (Notre Dame/Penn St) by less than 14 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— first career start for freshman backup QB.
— Ohio State is 4-5-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
— Under is 7-2 in Ohio State’s last nine games.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.


— These teams haven’t met since 1998.
— Favorites are 7-1 ATS in last eight Cotton Bowls.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.




NCAAF

Bowl Season


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clemson @ Kentucky
Clemson
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Kentucky
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kentucky's last 9 games
Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Oregon State @ Notre Dame
Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 5 games
Oregon State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Notre Dame
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 5 games
Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Memphis @ Iowa State
Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Iowa State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Missouri @ Ohio State
Missouri
Missouri is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Missouri is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Ohio State
Ohio State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Ohio State's last 9 games


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