NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 8
Sunday’s games
Jets @ Bengals (-4.5)
Jets (0-7)
Jets lost first seven games, five of them by 7 or fewer points.
Jets lost last two games, 13-11/13-6 (no TD’s/21 drives).
Jets are minus-9 in turnovers this season.
Fields is 14-36 as an NFL starter; Taylor is 28-30-1.
Aaron Glenn is 0-7 as a head coach.
Last 2 weeks, Jets were outgained 548-302.
Jets are 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Jets are 6-14-1 ATS in last 21 games overall.
Jets are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Jets converted 23 of last 77 third down plays.
Bengals (3-4)
Bengals lost four of their last five games.
Bengals are 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS in QB Flacco’s first two starts.
Over is 3-0 in Cincinnati home games.
Flacco is 117-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 54-58-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is 13-7-2 ATS last 22 games as home favorites.
Bengals are 19-8-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Bengals converted 13-29 3rd down plays with Flacco at QB.
Bengals are +3 in turnovers last 2 games (minus-5/first five)
AFC North teams are 6-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals won four of last five series games.
Jets lost 22-6/49-9 in last two visits to Cincinnati (last visit, 2019).
Bears @ Ravens (-6.5)
Bears (4-2)
Bears won their last four games, scoring 31-25-25-26 points.
Bears converted six of last 22 third down plays.
In their four wins, Chicago was +13 in turnovers.
Ben Johnson is 4-2 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 9-14 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 13-21-2 ATS last 36 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
Bears are 4-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Over is 2-0-1 in their road games this season.
NFC North teams are 10-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens (1-5)
Ravens lost their last four games, all by 8+ points.
QB Jackson (hamstring) is questionable; check status.
QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
Backup QB’s: Rush is 9-7, Huntley 5-10
Baltimore is 8-1 SU/4-5 ATS last nine post-bye games.
John Harbaugh is 186-120 as an NFL head coach.
Last three games, Ravens are minus-7 in turnovers.
Ravens are 11-7 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
Last two games, Baltimore was held to 207-296 total yards.
AFC North teams are 6-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last six series games.
Bears lost two of last three visits to Baltimore.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Dolphins @ Falcons (-7.5)
Dolphins (1-6)
Miami lost its last three games, by 3-2-25 points.
Miami has allowed 29.3 ppg in its 1-6 start.
Dolphins are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +3 in their win.
QB Tagovailoa is 39-31 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-31 as a head coach.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Miami is 0-6 when it allows more than 21 points.
Miami is 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Miami was held under 280 TY in four of seven games.
AFC East teams are 9-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (3-3)
Atlanta is 3-0 if its scores 22+ points, 0-3 if it doesn’t.
Falcons held five of six foes under 300 total yards.
Atlanta is +5 in turnovers in its three wins.
QB Penix is 4-5 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 32-50 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 7-16-1 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 7-11-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss.
Atlanta is 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
In their three wins, opponents converted only 7-28 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 12-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Favorites covered four of last five series games.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bills (-7.5) @ Panthers
Bills (4-2)
Buffalo lost last two games, 23-20/24-14.
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31 points in its four wins.
Bills are 10-0 SU/7-2-1 ATS in last 10 post-bye games.
QB Allen is 87-42 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 96-54 as an NFL head coach.
Bills were +3 in turnovers in their wins, minus-4 in losses.
Buffalo is 14-12 ATS last 26 games as a road favorite.
Bills converted only 10 of last 28 third down plays.
Buffalo is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 9-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (3-3)
Carolina won its last three games, by 3-3-7 points.
Panthers are 3-0 at home, 1-3 on the road.
Carolina held last three foes to 253.3 yards/game.
QB Young is 10-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 9-15 as a head coach.
Panthers are 14-8-1 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 4-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Carolina is 9-15 ATS in last 24 games vs AFC teams.
Last five games, Panthers converted 26-75 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 12-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buffalo won four of last six series games.
Teams split last two meetings played here.
Under is 3-3 in last six meetings.
49ers @ Texans (–1.5)
49ers (5-2)
49ers allowed 26-30 points in losses, 23 or less in wins.
SF ran ball for less than 85 yards in five of last six games.
In their two losses, 49ers were minus-6 in turnovers.
QB Jones is 24-31 as an NFL starter.
Shanahan is 83-68 as an NFL head coach
Last two games, 49ers converted 16-31 third down plays.
49ers are 1-4 ATS last five games as a road underdog.
49ers are 1-10 ATS last 11 games coming off a win.
49ers are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
49ers are 10-10 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Texans (2-4)
Short week for Texans after Monday’s loss in Seattle
Texans scored 9-19-10-19 points in their losses.
Houston allowed 0-10 points in their two wins.
QB Stroud is 23-19 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 24-20 in as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 7-15-1 ATS last 23 games as a home favorite.
Texans are 8-16-2 ATS last 26 games vs NFC teams.
Houston is 4-6 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
Texans gained 353-417 yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Texans are 13-12-1 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
49ers are 4-1 SU/4-0-1 ATS last five series games.
Teams split last two meetings here.
Last three series games stayed under the total.
Texans coach Ryans was an assistant for the 49ers from 2017-22
Giants @ Eagles (-7.5)
Giants (2-5)
Giants are 2-2 in rookie QB Dart’s first four starts.
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Last week, Giants led 26-8 with 6:00 left, lost 33-32.
Daboll is 21-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
Giants are 8-11 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog
Giants are 3-5 ATS last eight NFC East road games.
Under Daboll, Giants are 19-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Giants went over team total in three of Dart’s four starts.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 10-7 ATS in divisional games.
Eagles (5-2)
All five Eagle wins were by 7 or fewer points.
Eagles have been outgained in all seven games.
Last five games, Eagles were held to 86-88-45-73-45 rushing yards.
QB Hurts is 56-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 58-25 as an NFL coach.
Eagles are 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
Philly is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Last five weeks, Eagles allowed 356+ TY in all five games.
Last five weeks, opponents’ team total: over 5-0
Eagles are 11-14 ATS last 25 NFC East home games.
Giants (+7) upset Philly 34-17 at home two weeks ago.
Giants converted 11-16 third down plays in that game.
Eagles won 20 of last 25 series games.
Giants are 0-12 SU/6-6 ATS last 12 visits to Philadelphia.
Under is 9-4 in last 13 meetings.
Giants haven’t swept season series vs Philly since 2007.
Browns @ Patriots (-6.5)
Browns (2-5)
Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in six of seven games.
Home teams are 6-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Browns gave up 10-6 points in their wins.
Rookie QB Gabriel is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
Stefanski is 43-51 as a head coach.
Browns are 0-3 on road, losing by 24-24-14 points.
Cleveland is 8-18-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Browns are 6-15-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a win.
Cleveland gained less than 250 yards in four of last five games.
Last three games, Browns are +6 in turnovers.
Patriots (5-2)
Patriots won/covered their last four games.
Patriots were held to 13-14 points in their losses.
Patriots held last two foes to 296-255 total yards.
QB Maye is 8-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 61-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS last five games as a home favorite.
NE is 8-8-2 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 6-1.
Patriots held four of six foes under 100 rushing yards.
Last three games, New England is +5 in turnovers.
New England won last five series games, covered last four.
Browns are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS last six visits to Foxboro.
Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Buccaneers (–3.5) @ Saints
Buccaneers (5-2)
Short week for Tampa Bay after Monday’s loss in Detroit.
Last three weeks, Bucs gave up 401.7 yards/game.
Last three weeks, Tampa Bay ran ball for only 67 yards/game.
Mayfield is 57-58 as an NFL starter, 25-19 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 59-70 as a head coach, 33-29 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 8-11 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
Bucs have four wins by 3 or fewer points.
Bucs held five of seven opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Bucs are 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Four of last five Tampa Bay games went over the total.
Saints (1-6)
Saints scored 21 or fewer points in all six of their losses.
Saints were +5 in turnovers in their only win.
Saints allowed 28.7 ppg in their five losses
New Orleans has been outscored 140-72 in first half of games.
Saints are 6-15 ATS last 21 games as a home underdog.
Kellen Moore is 1-6 as a head coach.
Rattler is 1-12 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 4-11 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Last three games, Saints ran ball for 68.3 yards/game.
NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-6 ATS in divisional games.
Tampa Bay won five of last six series games.
Buccaneers won/covered last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Titans @ Colts (–14.5)
Titans (1-6)
Tennessee is 1-6 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26-10-18 points.
Titans are 2-2 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-6 as an NFL starter.
In their only win, Titans trailed 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Last five weeks, Titans ran the ball for only 70 yards/game.
Titans were held under 300 TY in six of seven games.
Tennessee is 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss.
Titans are 4-14 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog.
Titans are 1-6 ATS in last seven AFC South road games.
Colts (5-1)
Colts are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS at home this season.
Indy scored 29+ points in all six of its wins.
Colts’ team total: over 6-1
QB Jones is 31-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 23-18 SU as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 11-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Colts are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 AFC South home games.
Colts are +7 in turnovers this year.
Last three weeks, Colts scored 40-31-38 points.
Colts won 41-20 in Nashville in Week 3.
Colts won/covered last five series games.
Titans lost 38-30/23-16 in last two visits to Indy.
Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Cowboys @ Broncos (–3.5)
Cowboys (3-3-1)
Last four weeks, Dallas scored 37 points/game.
Dallas is 1-3 on the road; only win was over the 0-7 Jets.
Last four games, Cowboys are +5 in turnvers.
QB Prescott is 81-54-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 3-3-1 as a head coach.
Cowboys are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Cowboys are 3-6 ATS last nine games coming off a win.
Dallas is 0-3 when they score less than 37 points.
Last four games, Dallas scored 17 TD’s on 40 drives.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Broncos (5-2)
Broncos trailed 26-8 with 6:00 to play LW, won 33-32.
Denver won last four games, last two by 1-2 points.
Six of their seven games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Nix is 15-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 184-116 as an NFL head coach, 23-19 with Denver.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-9 ATS as a favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 9-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 10-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
Broncos are 6-1 ATS last seven games vs NFC teams.
AFC West teams are 8-13 ATS in non-divisional games.
Broncos won last six series games (4-1 ATS last five).
Cowboys lost their last two visits to Denver, 42-17/17-10.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Packers (–3.5) @ Steelers
Packers (4-1-1)
Green Bay is 4-0-1 when it scores 27+ points.
Packers held five of six opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Packers are 1-1-1 on road: L10-13, T40-40, W27-23.
QB Love is 23-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 74-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 25-22-1 ATS last 48 games coming off a win.
Green Bay gained less than 300 yards in three of six games.
Packers are 7-10 ATS last 17 games vs AFC teams.
NFC North teams are 10-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Steelers (4-2)
Rodgers played for Green Bay, from 2005-22.
Steelers won three of their last four games.
Pittsburgh is +4 in turnovers in its last four games.
QB Rodgers is 168-99-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-120-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite..
Pittsburgh is 10-5 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points in their two losses.
First three games, Steelers gained 247 yards/game.
Last three games, Pittsburgh gained 348 yards/game.
Steelers won five of last seven series games.
Packers are 0-3 SU/2-1 ATS last three visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
