NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Saturday?s games
West Virginia (4-5) @ Kansas State (4-3)
? West Virginia is 1-3 on road, losing by 6-3-25 points.
? WVU is 4-0 if it scores 27+ points, 0-5 if it does not.
? WVU was held under 100 YR in all five of their losses.
? Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Mountaineers have junior QB with 41 career starts.
? Under Brown, West Virginia is 5-6 ATS as road underdogs.
? Under is 5-2 in last seven West Virginia games.
? K-State lost three of last four games, winning 25-24 @ Texas Tech LW.
? Wildcats allowed 24 or less points in wins, 31-37-33 in losses.
? Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as home favorites.
? Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
? Wildcats have senior QB with 32 career starts.
? Under Klieman, K-State is 10-5 ATS coming off a win.
? Four of last five K-State games went over.
? West Virginia won last five series games, covered last four
? Mountaineers won 24-20/28-23 in last two visits to K-State.
? Under is 8-1 in last nine series games.
Minnesota (6-3) @ Iowa (7-2)
? Minnesota won 6 of last 8 games; losses as 30/15-point favorites.
? Gophers held last three opponents under 270 TY.
? Minnesota is 3-0 SU on road, giving up 9 ppg.
? Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
? Gophers have a junior QB with 35 starts.
? Minnesota covered last four games as a road underdog.
? Under is 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games.
? Iowa lost two of last three games, scoring 7-7-17 points.
? Hawkeyes were minus-3 in turnovers in both their losses.
? Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 16 starts.
? Last four years, Iowa is 12-8 ATS as a home favorite.
? Last four years, Iowa is 17-9-1 ATS coming off a win.
? Under is 7-2 in Iowa games this season.
? Iowa won last six series games (4-1-1 ATS).
? Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 visits to Iowa City.
? Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Michigan (8-1) @ Penn State (6-3)
? Michigan outgained last three foes by 199 yards/game.
? Michigan is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games.
? Nebraska/Michigan St are only teams to score more than 17 vs Michigan.
? Michigan scored 29+ points in eight of nine games.
? Michigan has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Wolverines have 30 returning starts on offensive line.
? Michigan?s QB has started 11 games.
? All three Michigan road games went over the total.
? Penn State lost three of its last four games, beating Maryland LW.
? Nittany Lions were held under 100 RY in last three games.
? PSU gave up 305-371 PY in last two games.
? Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
? Penn State has a junior QB, with 31 starts.
? Nittany Lions are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 games as home favorites.
? Under is 4-1 in Penn State home games this year.
? Penn State won three of last four series games.
? Wolverines are 2-4 ATS last six visits to Happy Valley.
? Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
NC State (7-2) @ Wake Forest (8-1)
? NC State won six of its last seven games.
? Wolfpack won last two games, despite running for 65 ypg.
? State split four road games, losing to Miss State/Miami.
? Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
? Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 17 starts.
? Last five years, NC State is 3-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Under is 3-1 in last four Wolfpack games.
? Wake lost 58-55 to UNC LW, its first loss this year.
? Deacons allowed 34+ points in four of last five games
? Wake allowed 330+ RY in three of last four games.
? Wake has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Deacons have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
? Wake has a sophomore QB with 28 career starts.
? Deacons are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as home favorites.
? Four of last five Wake games went over the total.
? Wake Forest won three of last four series games.
? Wolfpack is 1-11 ATS in last dozen trips to Winston-Salem.
Oklahoma (9-0) @ Baylor (7-2)
? Sooners? two true road wins are by 12-6 points.
? Oklahoma scored 52+ points in three of last four games.
? Sooners ran for 200+ yards three of last four games.
? Sooners have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Oklahoma has 126 returning starts on offensive line.
? Sooners? freshman QB has three starts.
? Under Riley, Oklahoma is 6-10-1 ATS as road favorites.
? Over is 4-1 in last five Oklahoma games.
? Baylor gave up 468 PY LW, to TCU QB making his first start.
? Baylor scored average of 36.3 ppg in four I-A home games.
? Last four years, Baylor is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
? Last six years, Baylor 13-17 ATS coming off a loss.
? Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Baylor has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Bears have a soph QB this year, with nine starts.
? Over is 5-2 in last seven Baylor games.
? Oklahoma won last seven series games.
? Baylor covered four of last five series games.
? Sooners are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Waco.
Notre Dame (6-1) @ Virginia (3-2)
? Notre Dame scored 31+ points in their last four games.
? Notre Dame?s only loss was 24-13 at home to unbeaten Cincinnati.
? ND covered six of its last seven games.
? Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Notre Dame has senior QB with 27 starts.
? Last five years, Notre Dame is 10-5-2 ATS as road favorites.
? Notre Dame is 18-8 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
? QB Armstrong got hurt at end of last game (check status)
? Virginia?s last game was two weeks ago; he had some time to heal
? Virginia scored 48-48-49 points in last three games.
? Last four years, Cavaliers are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs.
? Cavaliers are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
? Virginia has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on offensive line.
? Virginia has a soph QB with 16 starts.
? ACC teams are 4-1 ATS as non-conference home underdogs.
? Notre Dame was last two meetings. 35-20/34-27
? 34-27 game was in 2015, so take that for what its worth.
Arizona State (6-3) @ Washington (4-5)
? Arizona State lost 2 of last 3 games, after a 5-1 start.
? ASU lost 2 of 3 on road, winning 42-23 at UCLA.
? ASU scored 28+ in its wins, 21 or less in its losses.
? Sun Devils have 9 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
? ASU has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Sun Devils have a soph QB with 25 career starts.
? Under Edwards, ASU is 8-13 ATS as favorites, 2-5 on road.
? Four of last six ASU games went over the total.
? Washington coach Lake is suspended for this game.
? Huskies gave up 218+ rushing yards in four of last five games.
? Washington scored 18.5 ppg in last four games (29.3 previous four)
? Washington has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Huskies have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Washington?s QB has 13 career starts.
? Last nine years, Huskies are 1-7 ATS as home underdogs.
? Under is 7-1 in Washington games.
? Home side won last four series games.
? Teams last met in 2018.
? Sun Devils covered their last eight visits to Seattle.
? Last five series games stayed under the total.
Mississippi State (5-4) @ Auburn (6-3)
? Three of Miss State?s four losses were by 2 or 3 points.
? Under Leach, Miss State is 6-3 ATS on road.
? Bulldogs are 1-4 when they give up more than 22 points.
? Miss State threw for 344+ yards in six of last seven games.
? Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? MSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
? Bulldogs have a freshman QB this year, with 16 starts.
? Under is 5-3 in last eight Miss State games.
? Auburn is 6-0 if it scores more than 20 points.
? Tigers gave up 441.8 yards/game in last four games.
? Tigers are 6-0 if they gain 400+ yards; 303.7 ypg in losses.
? Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
? Tigers have a soph QB with 33 career starts.
? Auburn is 8-3 ATS last 11 games as home favorites.
? Under is 4-1 in last five Auburn games.
? Auburn won/covered four of last five series games.
? Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS last nine visits to Auburn.
? Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Central Florida (6-3) @ SMU (7-2)
? UCF won its last three games, giving up 7-7-10 points.
? Knights gave up 34+ points in all three of their losses.
? Knights held last three opponents under 300 TY.
? UCF has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Knights have a soph QB with 32 career starts.
? Last five years, UCF is 1-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? In his career, Malzahn is 8-12 ATS as a road underdog.
? AAC single digit home favorites are 4-1 ATS.
? Mustangs lost last two games, after a 7-0 start.
? SMU gave up 32.7 ppg in last three games.
? SMU has scored 31+ points in 8 of 9 games this season.
? Mustangs are 9-3 ATS last 12 games as home favorites.
? SMU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Mustangs have 141 returning starts on offensive line.
? SMU has a soph QB this year; he was a backup at Oklahoma.
? SMU allowed 428+ total yards in six of last eight games.
? Teams haven?t met since 2018.
? Central Florida won last five series games (3-2 ATS)
? UCF scored 48-31-53 points in last three meetings.
Texas A&M (7-3) @ Ole Miss (7-2)
? A&M won last four games, giving up 10.3 ppg in last three.
? Aggies ran ball for 263.3 ypg in last three games.
? A&M allowed 20 or less points in seven of nine games.
? A&M has 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Aggies have 15 returning starts on offensive line.
? A&M has a freshman QB, beat Alabama with him.
? Aggies are 8-2 ATS last ten games as road favorites.
? Under is 7-3 in A&M games this season.
? Ole Miss won four of last five games, gaining 464+ TY in all five.
? Rebels allowed 200+ rushing yards in five of last six games.
? Ole Miss gave up 42-31 points in its two losses (Bama/Auburn)
? Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
? Rebels? soph QB has started 24 games.
? Last five years, Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS as home underdog.
? Five of last six Rebel games stayed under the total.
? Texas A&M won/covered last three series games.
? Aggies won four of last five visits to Oxford.
? Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Miami (5-4) @ Florida State (3-5)
? Miami won last three games, by total of 8 points.
? Miami?s last four games were all decided by 4 or less points.
? Miami is 1-1 in true road games (42-45 @ UNC, 38-34 @ Pitt)
? Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
? Hurricanes are playing a freshman QB with 15 TD?s, 4 INT?s.
? Last three games, Miami threw for 325-426-389 yards.
? Over is 3-0-1 in last four Miami games.
? Florida State won 3 of last 4 games, after an 0-4 start.
? FSU scored 33+ points in its wins; they?re 0-4 scoring less than 33.
? FSU ran for 200+ yards in five of seven I-A games.
? Seminoles have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? FSU has 100 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Seminoles have been playing two QBs.
? Last 3 games, Seminoles are +4 in TO?s; first five games, minus-8.
? Last five years, FSU is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
? Miami won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
? Hurricanes crushed Florida State 52-10 LY.
? Miami is 9-2 ATS in last 11 trips to Tallahassee.
Arkansas (7-3) @ LSU (4-3)
? Arkansas lost three of last four I-A games, giving up 38.8 ppg.
? Hogs are 5-1 this season when they score 31+ points.
? Arkansas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Razorbacks have 110 returning starts on offensive line.
? Arkansas has a freshman QB with 10 starts.
? Last 11 years, Arkansas is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite.
? Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 6-2 ATS coming off a win.
? Over is 6-3 in Arkansas games this season.
? LSU lost four of last five games; they lost 20-14 to Alabama LW.
? LSU allowed 453+ TY in five of their last six games.
? Tigers are 4-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-5 if they don?t.
? LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
? LSU?s junior QB has made 11 starts.
? Under Orgeron, Tigers are 4-2 ATS as home underdogs.
? Under is 4-2 in last six LSU games.
? LSU won last five series games (3-2 ATS).
? Arkansas is 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Baton Rouge.
? Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Nevada (7-2) @ San Diego State (8-1)
? Nevada gave up 38-34 points in their losses.
? Nevada split four road games, losing at K-State/Fresno.
? Wolf Pack threw for 395+ yards in four of last five games.
? Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Nevada?s soph QB has 28 career starts.
? Last 8 years, Wolf Pack is 17-13 ATS as a road underdog.
? Over is 5-2 in last seven Nevada games.
? San Diego State?s one loss was 30-20 at home to Fresno State.
? Aztecs were held to 240 or less yards in three of last four games.
? Aztecs scored 19 ppg last four games (33.6 ppg in first five).
? San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
? San Diego State has a junior QB with 11 starts.
? Under Hoke, Aztecs are 5-2 ATS as home favorites.
? Under is 4-1 in Aztecs? last five games.
? Nevada won last three series games, by 5-4-4 points.
? Wolf Pack was an underdog in all three of those games.
? Nevada is 2-3 ATS in last five road series games.