NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 11
Top 13 games of the week
Saturday’s games
Georgia (-9.5) @ Mississippi State
Georgia (7-1, 5-1)
Georgia won last four games, by 21-10-4 points.
Dawgs’ only loss was 24-21 at home to Alabama.
Dawgs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Georgia has 35 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Stockton has three career starts.
Georgia is 7-19-1 ATS last 27 games as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, Georgia is 10-14 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Smart is 42-50-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Smart is 48-40 ATS in SEC games.
Dawgs are 7-19-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4)
Miss State won 38-35 LW, snapping a four-game skid.
Last two games, Bulldogs gave up 45-35 points.
Bulldogs have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bulldogs have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen has 27 career starts.
Bulldogs scored 34+ points in four of last six games.
MSU is 7-1 ATS so far this season.
MSU is 3-0 ATS as a home dog TY (2-13-1 ATS from 2019-24).
Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in last 13 SEC games.
SEC home favorites are 7-6 ATS in conference games.
Georgia won five in row, eight of last meetings.
Dawgs are 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS last three visits to Starkville.
Last three meetings went over the total.
BYU @ Texas Tech (-10.5)
BYU (8-0, 5-0)
BYU scored 24-38-33-24-41 points in its Big X wins.
BYU gave up 470-495 yards in last two games.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Broncos have 61 starts returning on the offensive line.
QB Bachmeier is 126-201/1,693 passing (11 TD’s, 3 INTs)
In its Big X games, BYU allowed 24 points/game.
BYU is 18-9 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
BYU is 9-6 ATS in last 15 conference games.
BYU is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in BYU’s last four games.
Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1)
Texas Tech scored 34+ points in all eight wins.
Tech’s only loss: 26-22 at Arizona State.
Red Raiders have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Red Raiders have 138 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Morton has started 20 games.
Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS this season.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 13-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under McGuire, Tech is 19-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Tech is +8 in turnovers this season.
Under is 5-2 in Tech’s last seven games.
BYU (+3) beat Texas Tech 27-14 at home, two years ago.
BYU was +5 in turnovers in that game.
Big X home favorites are 20-12 ATS in conference games.
Texas A&M (-6.5) @ Missouri
Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0)
Last four games, Aggies scored 31-34-45-49 points.
A&M won their three road games, 41-40/45-42/49-25
Over is 6-2 in their games.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.
A&M is 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
In his career, Elko is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Aggies are 10-13-3 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win
A&M is 11-15-3 ATS in last 28 SEC games.
In his career, Elko is 16-13 ATS in conference games.
Missouri (6-2, 2-2)
Mizzou lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
Tigers are 5-0 when they score 29+ points.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last 2 years, Junior QB Pribula was a backup QB at Penn State.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 25-20-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 13-9 in games coming off a loss.
Last four Mizzou games stayed under the total.
Texas A&M won last two series games, 41-10/35-14
Teams split last six meetings in Columbia.
Over is 4-2 in last four series games.
SEC home underdogs are 7-6 ATS in conference games.
Oregon (-6.5) @ Iowa
Oregon (7-1, 5-1)
Oregon allowed 14 or less points in six of its seven wins.
Ducks only loss: 30-20 at home to Indiana.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Ducks have 124 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Moore started 5 games at UCLA in 2023.
Under Lanning, Ducks are 11-5 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 21-14 ATS in conference games.
Ducks are 18-10 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
Last two games, Oregon ran ball for 405/213 yards.
Ducks held four of last five opponents under 280 TY.
Iowa (6-2, 4-1)
Iowa won five of their last six games.
Hawkeyes were held to 13-15 points in their losses.
Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 85 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gronowski started 55 games at I-AA South Dakota State.
Hawkeyes are 4-3 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
Iowa is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 conference games.
In his career, Ferentz is 123-94-7 ATS in conference games.
Last three games, Iowa allowed only 109-68-133 yards.
Iowa is 36-24-2 ATS in last 62 games coming off a win.
These two teams have not met in this century.
Big 18 home underdogs are 10-10 ATS.
Kansas @ Arizona (-5.5)
Kansas (5-4, 3-3)
Kansas is 5-0 when it allows less than 37 points.
Jayhawks allowed 42-37-42-42 points in their losses.
Jayhawks have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Kansas has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Daniels started 12 games last year.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
In his career, Leipold is 13-23-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 7-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Kansas is 13-11 ATS in its last 24 Big X games.
Kansas is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Arizona (5-3, 3-3)
Arizona lost 3 of last 5 games, after a 3-0 start.
Wildcats gave up 39-33-31 points in their losses.
Arizona has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Wildcats have 84 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Fifita has 21 career starts
Arizona is 6-5 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Brennan is 14-13 ATS as a road favorite.
Arizona is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 37-32-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five games.
These teams have not met in this century.
Big X home favorites are 20-12 ATS in conference games.
Iowa State @ TCU (-6.5)
Iowa State (5-4, 2-4)
Iowa State lost last four games, after a 5-0 start.
Iowa State Is 5-0 when it allows less than 24 points.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
Iowa State is 14-9-1 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Campbell is 24-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Cyclones are 16-18 ATS in last 34 Big X games.
Over is 3-2 in their last five games.
Iowa State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
TCU (6-2, 3-2)
TCU is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points.
Horned Frogs ran for less than 100 yards in four of last five games.
TCU has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Hoover started 19 games the last two years.
Under Dykes, TCU is 12-8 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 33-25 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Dykes, Frogs are 17-13-3 ATS in Big X games.
Last two games, TCU allowed 318/301 passing yards.
Four of last six TCU games stayed under the total.
Iowa State won five of last seven series games.
Cyclones lost four of last five visits to TCU
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Big X home favorites are 20-12 ATS in conference games.
Auburn @ Vanderbilt (-6.5)
Auburn (4-5, 1-5)
Auburn lost five of its last six games, after a 3-0 start.
Tigers fired their coach this week.
Auburn has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Arnold started 10 games for Oklahoma.
Tigers held last four opponents under 100 yards rushing.
Auburn is 7-6-1 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Auburn is 10-12 ATS in last 22 conference games.
Auburn is 13-15 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
Under is 7-1 in last eight Auburn games.
Vanderbilt (7-2, 3-2)
Vandy scored 31+ points in seven of their nine wins.
Commodores allowed 30-34 points in their two losses.
Commodores have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 139 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Senior QB Pavia has started 36 college games
Under Lea, Vandy is 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Lea, Vandy is 5-9 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lea, Vandy is 20-17 ATS in SEC games (10-3 last 13)
Under Lea, Vandy is 17-14 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-2 in Vandy’s last six games.
Teams split last six meetings.
Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
Under is 6-0 in last six meetings.
SEC home favorites are 15-13 ATS in conference games.
Stanford @ North Carolina (-7.5)
Stanford (3-6, 2-4)
Stanford allowed 34+ points in all four ACC losses.
They fired the coach this spring; Frank Reich is interim coach.
Cardinal has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Stanford has 76 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Gulbranson started 12 games at Oregon State.
Stanford ran ball for less than 80 yards in 5 of last 6 games.
Stanford is 9-25 ATS last 34 games as a road underdog (0-5 TY).
Stanford is 12-28-1 ATS in last 41 conference games.
Cardinal allowed 400+ yards in five of last six games.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games
North Carolina (3-5, 1-3)
North Carolina lost four of its last five games.
UNC allowed 3-6-10 points in its wins.
Tar Heels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tar Heels have 155 returning starts on offensive line.
QB Lopez started 11 games at South Alabama LY.
Tar Heels are 6-12 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
Tar Heels are 16-21 ATS in last 37 conference games.
Last five games, UNC is minus-6 in turnovers.
UNC gained less than 300 yards in three of last five games.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
These teams haven’t met since 2016.
ACC home favorites are 11-14 ATS in conference games.
Wake Forest @ Virginia (-6.5)
Wake Forest (5-3, 2-3)
Wake allowed 34-30-42 points in its three losses.
Deacons’ new coach was 23-20 at Washington State
Deacons have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Wake Forest has 86 returning starts on offensive line.
Last 2 years, senior QB Ashford was at Auburn/South Carolina
In his career, coach Dickert is 5-6-1 as a road underdog.
Wake is 6-5 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Wake was 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 conference games.
Deacons are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
Wake ran for less than 100 yards in three of last four games.
Virginia (8-1, 5-1)
Virginia’s only loss was 35-31 at NC State.
Three of their last four wins were by 3 or fewer points.
Cavaliers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 182 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morris started 21 games at North Texas, TCU.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 7-6 ATS as a favorite.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 5-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 19-10 ATS in ACC games.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 12-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last four Virginia games stayed under the total.
Deacons won/covered five of last six series games.
Wake Forest won 37-17/16-10 in last two visits to Virginia.
Four of last six meetings went over the total.
ACC home favorites are 11-14 ATS in conference games.
Florida State @ Clemson (-1.5)
Florida State (4-4, 1-4)
Florida State lost four of its last five games.
Seminoles are 0-2 on road: 46-38 at Virginia, 20-13 at Stanford
FSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Seminoles have 129 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Castellanos started 20 games at Boston College.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 4-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 9-15-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 20-26 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Norvell is 40-40-1 ATS in conference games.
Under is 3-1 in Florida State’s last four games.
Clemson (3-5, 2-4)
Clemson is 0-4 when it scores less than 27 points.
Tigers lost four of five home games SU this year.
Clemson has gained 488+ total yards in 4 of last 5 games.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Clemson has 122 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Klubnik started 28 games last two years.
Clemson is 0-5 ATS at home this year.
Tigers are 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
Clemson is 10-13 ATS in last 23 ACC games.
Tigers are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Clemson won seven of last eight series games.
Seminoles are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Clemson.
Over is 5-2-1 in last eight meetings.
ACC home favorites are 11-14 ATS in conference games.
LSU @ Alabama (-9.5)
LSU (5-3, 2-3)
First game for LSU since they fired their coach
Tigers lost three of their last four games.
LSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
LSU has 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards LY (29 TD’s, 12 INTs)
LSU is 3-6 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
LSU allowed 10 or fewer points in all five wins.
LSU is 13-16-1 ATS in last 30 SEC games.
LSU is 7-6 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-2 in their I-A games.
Alabama (7-1, 5-0)
Alabama won first five SEC games, by 3-16-3-17-7 points.
Alabama is +10 in turnovers this season.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.
Under DeBoer, Alabama is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, DeBoer is 19-12-1 as a home favorite.
Crimson Tide is 14-7-1 ATS in its last 22 SEC games.
Total in last three Alabama games: 51-57-51 points.
Four of last five Alabama games stayed under the total.
Alabama won 11 of last 13 series games.
LSU is 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS last six visits to Alabama.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
SEC home favorites are 15-13 ATS in conference games.
Florida (-3.5) @ Kentucky
Florida (3-5, 2-3)
Gators are 2-5 vs I-A teams, scoring 14 ppg in losses.
Florida scored 29-23 points in their I-A wins.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Gators have 98 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Lagway started eight games last year.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in last seven games overall.
Florida is 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
Florida is 6-9 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Florida is 16-13 ATS in last 29 SEC games.
Under is 5-2 in Florida’s I-A games.
Kentucky (3-5, 1-5)
Kentucky is 0-4 in SEC, losing by 7-22-21-3-22 points.
Kentucky scored 134 or fewer points in four of last five games.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Wildcats have 170 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Boley is 123-187/1,376 passing (10 TD’s/7 INTs)
Kentucky is 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
In his career, Mark Stoops is 12-16-2 ATS as a home dog.
Last 4+ years, Kentucky is 20-18 ATS in SEC games.
Wildcats are 17-12 ATS last 29 games coming off a win.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Kentucky won three of last four series games.
Gators lost 33-14/20-13 in last two visits to Lexington.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings played here.
SEC home underdogs are 7-6 ATS in conference games.
UNLV (-4.5) @ Colorado State
UNLV (6-0, 2-0)
UNLV lost its last two games, after a 6-0 start.
Last two games, Rebels gave up 56-40 points.
UNLV has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
Rebels have 37 starts returning on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Junior QB Colandrea started 11 games at Virginia LY.
Rebels are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
In his career, Mullen is 20-17-1 ATS as a road favorite.
UNLV is 3-5 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
In his career, Mullen is 58-51-2 ATS in conference games.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Colorado State (2-6, 1-3)
Rams lost five of their last six games.
CSU gave up 435+ yards in three of last four games.
Rams have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
CSU has 94 starts returning on the offensive line.
Rams’ soph QB has 840 PY this year (6 TD’s, 3 INT’s)
Rams are 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games as a home dog.
Rams are 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 conference games.
Rams are 13-12 ATS in last 25 games as an underdog.
CSU was +4 in turnovers in its only I-A win.
Under is 4-2 in Rams’ last six I-A games.
Colorado State won four of last five series games.
UNLV are 0-7 SU/ATS in last seven visits to Fort Collins.
Over is 6-4 in last 10 series games.
Mountain West home underdogs are 4-4 ATS in conference games.
